How much?

just a wild guess: too much for too many years

Apparently $92.5/5. Opt out after 4, can be voided if team adds 6th guaranteed year

my least favorite target on the market, but less than $20m per year isn't bad to be fair.

what could go wrong signing a guy, the wrong side of 30, with a career OPS under .800 coming off a career year?

wasn't the rumour he was looking at 3 year deals?

when can we get rid of this front office? they're now doing things that would hurt a rebuilt team.

I would say, after the deadline at the earliest, soupman. If the team has a good year, I would expect at least another 5 years of Shapiro

The rumour was that Santander wanted five years (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/anthony-santander-rumors-five-year-deal-yankees-interested.html).

I imagine the Jays were the only team to offer one to him.

I think there's a significant chance this gets ugly the last couple of years. It's a good example of having to overpay in length, if not dollars, to get players here. Santander knew he had this front office over a barrel given how the offseason went and gambled they would give it to him.

So, what has the FO done this winter so far? Goals were to cover the pen, offense, and maybe 1 more starter.

• Traded Horwitz for Andrés Giménez (2B wow defense for a 27 year old prospect who showed some bat 123 OPS+ over 425 PA)
• Signed free agents Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman, and now Santander - 2 relievers and a slugger.
• traded PTBNL or cash for $2 mil IFA cash and Myles Straw (CF wow D, zero O and $11 mil owing over 2 years)
• Dumped Romano for nothing

So added 2 solid relievers, 2 'wow' defensive players with meh or no offense, and a power OF. Just need to find a starting pitcher and they've pretty much covered what they were after. Ideally another reliever and a DH too.

Definitely was not who I wanted at the beginning of the offseason but at this point, sure, fine.

It is clear that the Jays need to add that extra year to get anyone to sign right now. Sucks, but Rogers can afford it. Now sign Vlad long term and get us either 1 more hitter or 1 more starting pitcher and the winter is complete.

They needed a left bat to hit behind Vlad.

500K of the IFA money they got from Straw goes here.
Ideally he opts out after 4 year which makes it a decent contract.
If not, he's still here at age 34 in 2029.

By comparison, the Yankees got Goldsmitdt who is 37 and Bellinger.
Goldshmidt gets 12.5M and Bellinger gets 27.5M. 
Straw can be a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

Maybe just add a 5th starter to push Y-Rod as the long man in place of Tommy Nance and they should be good to go.

there is nothing wrong with the contract tbh. signing him until age 34 isn't even a big deal. that's not very old really.

the issue for me is thinking that santander is a core bat comparable to other top team's core bats. he just isn't that, even in the unlikely situation that last year was a breakout at 29 and not just a career year.

Alonso would complicate things.
Santander would have to hit between him and Vlad.
Alonso and Vlad would fight for 1B.
Vlad would probably play some 3B.
It certainly wouldn't make it easier to extend Vlad.

Payroll is also the highest it’s ever been. I wonder how many more moves they can make.

Even if we're projecting 30 HR, not 44, he's a 3 WAR bat which is better than Horwitz.

He and horwitz actually project similarly, though obviously Santander's projections are safer.

This just reminds me of the Springer contract. Both around 30, long contract, one year more for Springer but he is and was more athletic.

So the contract should work for this year and next, after that who knows?

well a year younger than Springer and a year shorter contract, so not signing him for ages 35 and 36, which is pretty significant.

I also think it's a fair deal but agree that he is not a true big bat but rather a supporting player ala Teoscar.  Honestly, this move is a thumbs up from me at this point.  The problem of missing on everyone is lessened if Rogers is willing to let Atikins try to spend his way out of this mess. 

Does anyone do valuations on bonus pool money?   Like, did we pay an exorbitant price to swing and miss, or did we just swing and miss?  We are obviously behind the eight ball on IFAs, but we can still use that extra space.  But use it well? 

And how does Lukes fare compared to Straw defensively?  He's gotta be ahead of the new guy on the depth chart, no?  Shaprio and Atkins can't be the smartest guys in the room if they are playing a sunk cost, (barring a major comeback from Straw).   

Jays lose their second round draft pick this year. They also lose international pool money in 2026.

With the Jays payroll this high I think Edward Rogers is turning into George Steinbrenner, without the manager sackings.

If Vlad and Bo leave, Santander may become the new Dave Kingman with no protection .

The international pool money apparently gets deducted from the 2026 pool not 2025, so the trade didn't actually help there. The lost 2nd round pick (and related $2M budget) is for 2025, though.

I took some time this weekend and watched one of the few games Straw played in the majors in 2024. In it, he broke up a no-hitter in the 5th inning and single handedly scored a run: oppo field hit, stolen base (by a huge margin even though the other team knew he was going), stole third (the batter was struggling to get a bunt down so he just did it himself) and then scored on the suicide bunt.

Masterful small ball, and he had good routes in the outfield. He'll be a good No. 4 OFer and can split playing time with Lukes until Varsho is back. He's just not worth $5M+...

Rosenthal says the opt out is after year three.

Opt out after 3 years seems more practical than after after 4 years - Also there is a signing bonus and deferrals which complicate the present day value calculation.

That would be great, if true Gerry

Not my favourite target but he makes team better. Jays are going to have to overpay/do more years to get almost anyone. Under $20M a year isn't bad though. Now they need to keep going. Go get Scherzer, go get Bregman and try to win.

Like many here, not a favorite target, but value per year seems decent (thought he'd get close to that over 4 years).

Hope he spends most of his time DHing though and doesn't block a corner OF prospect.

For projections I'll trust the one of a guy who had 665 PA last year and over 3k lifetime vs the guy entering his age 27 season with just 425 PA lifetime. BR: Horwitz 257/340/422 63% reliable Santander 243/313/470 87% reliable. Not sure how they measure reliability on BR but I thought it was of note and fits what I'd expect, well, I'd put Horwitz lower on the 'reliable' scale but we'll see.

Now, online I see a push for the Jays to go over the top by signing Alonso (move Vlad to 3B most of the time) and getting another starter. Signing a second QO FA isn't a bad idea - the cost is 'just' the Jays 3rd pick this summer (not more IFA cash - that is limited to the $500k they just lost by signing Santander, but for 2026).

As to crossing the tiers into 2nd now and possibly the 3rd, the cost is mostly cash, but also having their first pick in 2026 pushed back 10 slots (2nd tier does this) which would suck if the team sucks in 2025, but won't be a big worry if they do well in 2025 (if they suck in '25 they'll probably trade away all they can to get back into the 1st bracket or out of the luxury tax altogether ala 2024). A 1 year starter would make sense now (pure cash, if healthy an easy trade if the team sucks but he doesn't) ala Scherzer or a good older reliever ala Robertson, Kelly, Yates, or Jansen. All decent options depending on health. Wonder if the Jays would consider a 1-2 year deal for Bregman or another FA with a QO (Alonso & Pivetta are the only others ones left) who wants to go back on the market after 2025. Might work well and only cost the 3rd round pick this year.

Wee, we needed someone to bat behind Vlad and there wasn't much left free agent wise.

In the Much Ado About Nothing category, Santander actually began his MLB career as a Rule 5 pick for the Orioles in 2017 (he was a 21 year old outfielder who had yet to play above A ball).

The team he was claimed from? Cleveland of course. Once again Atkins and Shapiro just can’t resist their old franchise! (Sarcasm)

I don’t have strong feelings about this move. Santander makes the team better in 2025, which I guess is good in the short term. But the team as currently constituted still seems pretty middling. And 2026 looks grim.

Is the front office going to push more chips in for 2025 (adding Bregman or Alonso or Flaherty or Pivetta or Scherzer)?

Or maybe they can do a consolidation trade, packaging some of their accumulated prospects for a useful MLB player in return?

In the Much Ado About Nothing category, Santander's nicknames are Agua Blanca and Tony Taters.

This line up needed this bat so badly. Two thumbs up from me. Glad to see this team finally shape up and spend some $$$ without trying to win every transaction on value.

You can't criticize this FO for overspending or getting deals that may age badly if they continue bringing in free agents and spending. I'll take this over the past two offseasons of dog poop.

average of Steamer wRC+ proj. and Zips ops+ proj.

* 1. SS Bichette 115
* 2. DH Wagner 114
* 3. 1B Guerrero 151
* 4. LF Santander 119
* 5. C Kirk 113
* 6. RF Springer 106
* 7. 2B Gimenez 105
* 8. CF Varsho 101
* 9. 3B Clement 98

* X. CF Loperfido 90 / Clase 85 / Berroa 84 / Straw 73
* X. COF Roden 108 / Schneider 105 / Lukes 105 / Barger 104
* X. IF Stefanic 107 / Jimenez 99 / Orelvis 93 / Kasevich 83
* X. C Sanchez 75 / Heineman 74

UO, what would that stat be for 3B Bregman if signed?

Top Luxury tax payrolls for 2025
1. Dodgers 389+
2. Phillies 308+
3. Yankees 303+
4. Mets 294+
5. Blue Jays 245+

Now all that remains to do is to sign Bregman to complete my projected Jays off season of panic and job security concerns.

Play for your contracts, boys!

Contract has major deferrals. Learning from the Dodgers? Or is Santander trying to avoid Canadian tax?

More than $35M deferred per reports.

The contract isn't terrible and Sanatander will help in 2025. This whole offseason makes very little sense for 2026 and beyond on the team's current trajectory.

$18.5M a year and heavily deferred makes this a pretty solid deal. Hopefully means the team isn't done adding. They need more than Santander. Seems like the plan is to go for broke in 2025, and then deal with 2026-beyond when it happens. Similar to AA's 2014-15 winter mindset, although a Vladdy extension could certainly change that.

afaik the deferrals don't help annual payroll implications, right?

just lets him avoid taxes for the most part?

honestly every deal we do should have massive deferrals as a default.

I think he makes plenty of sense for 2026 and beyond.
After hitting 30, he's going to DH more and more.
He's not blocking anyone and the Jays have lots of money coming off the books, Bassitt in 26, Springer and Gausman in 27.

The Jays are not on a trajectory of fielding a 100 game losing team.
There's no point in doing that with a lottery in place.

There is a $13.5MM signing bonus and deferrals, which will impact the net present value

If I remember correctly from the Russell Martin/Josh Donaldson article about winning their case against the CRA last month, signing bonuses in Canada are taxed federally at a flat 15% or so as opposed to the progressive tax rates for salary.

Not impactful for CBT considerations, but of note that savvy FAs and their reps may want to frontload as much into signing bonuses as possible given other considerations.

"The Jays are not on a trajectory of fielding a 100 game losing team.
There's no point in doing that with a lottery in place."

It would appear you and I are in the minority to be sharing this view.

Deferrals do matter for the CBT, because it affects the net present value of the contract (lowering it due to inflation). So it’s a benefit to the 2025 team because the CBT impact will be lower.

I think all AL East teams are around the same right now. Jays need to keep adding. Alonso, I don't get unless it's a one year deal because he clogs up DH which means just taking abs away from Wagner and giving the Jays less flexibility and he seems like he's in pretty serious decline. Bregman (or trade for 3B) and a starter and I'll be happy.

I don't see Alonso happening. Boras is going to want a deal where he can opt out after a year. If you look at last winter's Boras clients, that approached worked for some (Snell, Chapman) and not for others (Bellinger, Montgomery, Hoskins). Alonso being a 1B/DH makes me think he's closer to the latter than the former, so a multi-year deal with opt outs is not appealing for a team that is losing a pick for it. Makes more sense for the Mets to make that deal.

I think Bregman might be their target, and failing that it will be Profar.

Sign Bregman, Alonso, and Scherzer. stop Fing around.

Bregman is too expensive.

Let say Straw and Heineman are on the bench.
That probably leaves Jimenez as the backup infielder. 
That leaves one spot open for a corner outfielder/infielder to play when Springer/Guerrero/Santander are the DH.
That also leaves the CF open for a competition along with the DH for which most people would like to see Wagner.

The real issue is the back of the rotation/pen.
A decent 5th starter would push Y-Rod to the pen and solve both problem.

Also, they might eventually want a second lefty in the pen.

I don't think Straw js ever playing for the Jays.

Thumbs up on this deal. The Jays badly needed someone who can go yard and chicks dig the long ball. The AAV isn't too high either.
Now keep going.

Scottie Mitchell saying Alonso still in play. This is getting better. Boy oh boy if they can add another 35HR bat and then resign Vlad I'm back in.

Current guess for opening day (baring more FA and/or trades of course)...
Kirk-Vlad-Giménez-Clement-Bo-Santander-Lukes (until Varsho healthy)-Springer-Wagner bench: Heinemann-Schneider-Straw-Jimenez

Rotation: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Francis-Rodriguez
Pen: Hoffman-Garcia-Green-Swanson-Sandlin-Little-Pop-Burr

Other 40 man pitchers: Bloss-Macko-Nance-Robertson-Walker-Eisert-Lucas-Peterson
Other 40 man hitters: Loperfido-Clase-Berroa-Barger-O Martinez

IL: Manoah-Varsho-Bastardo

If the Blue Jays are currently (say) an 85-win team, they might as well push a bit further now to become an 87 or 88 win team. They might not have a lot of prospects to make significant improvements at the trade deadline.

Biggest need is pretty easily SP for me. Team even has decent depth most places on the field but don't trust Rodriguez as 5th starter and any injured pitcher means who, Bloss, in rotation? Get scherzer or Flaherty.

While I’m fully onboard for more signings, I can’t imagine there is that much payroll room left (referencing posters asking them to sign Bregman and Alonso).

I’m still fussed about where everyone will play - Loperfido, Clase, Barger, Berroa, Straw, Lukes, Rosen - for the outfield alone, let alone Schneider and Martinez. A lot of those guys deserve full time ABs, and a few of them might be players. It’s good to have depth, but it’s not good to waste assets. I wonder how they fix this to make it all make sense

As a refresher, here are Fangraphs' player notes on Alonso from their 2025 top 50 free agents list (Alonso was #13, right behind Santander):

If only this were happening two years earlier. Over his first four seasons with the Mets, Alonso slugged a big league-best 146 home runs and ran a 137 wRC+, 12th-best among qualified hitters. His 12.4 WAR ranked fourth among first basemen. Over the past two years, Alonso has been a solid hitter, but a 121 wRC+ and below-average defense at first translates to just 4.9 WAR. All of sudden, Alonso isn’t the game’s preeminent home run hitter. He’s a slugger with sagging numbers who will soon be on the wrong side of the 30.

Or at least that’s one way of looking at things. Alonso is hands-down the best first baseman on the market. He’s never posted a wRC+ below 120. After a rough start to 2024, he put up a 130 wRC+ in the second half and went ballistic in the playoffs. Alonso still hits the ball plenty hard, takes his walks, and makes enough contact. His step back can mostly be attributed to his groundball and strikeout rates creeping up. The latter is happening largely because he’s been much more passive on pitches in the zone. In 2024, Alonso swung at just 66% of pitches over the heart of the plate, which put him in the sixth percentile of all hitters (minimum 300 such pitches). That sounds fixable. Whoever signs Alonso will be paying for his decline years, but they’ll be getting one of the game’s biggest and most lovable power bats in the meantime. – DA

I’m with you, Glevin. Another starter is needed.
When you at Northey’s proposed roster, it jumps out to me that the bullpen lacks a multi-inning guy. Getting another starter fixes that issue.

I think it's becoming clear - between the 11 million they took on from Straw just to impress Sasaki to the 11 million they took on from Gimenez this season - this FO has lots of cash to work with and the ability as demonstrated in the Santander deal to use deferrals to help balance out the overall value of a contract.

It's actually a bit crazy that they went to fight Vlad last year over a few million. The amount of money they will pay going over the two thresholds for one year is not significant percentage-wise.

Not going to link to anything on X, but BNS says Santander's deal appears to be around 14m a year for CBT purposes.

Agree on SP need and BP multi inning P but also another bat! I think they want more of their AAAA guys in AAA padding their numbers.

Keith Law (The Athletic) called the Santander contract a "huge overpay" and that it's "a deal that should certainly make them 2-3 wins better this year, but that I really doubt is going to age well at all."

He also wrote, and I tend to agree, that "Springer might be toast ... and they need to just bench him and give Santander those at-bats. The other corner is still available, although I’d like to see Joey Loperfido, acquired in the Yusei Kikuchi trade, get a shot there."

Brandon Eisert DFA'd for Santander.

I am in between. You can let young guys prove themselves before opening spots but I do think you need to keep open potential avenues for players. I am also hesitant about signing Alonso because it blocks just about every young player from playing time.