That really hasn't come to pass 2/3 of the way through the offseason.

Horwitz was flipped to Cleveland in a surprising salary dump trade for Gimenez that no one saw coming. But Horwitz was actually an in-house overage prospect who came up late in the spring, tore the cover off the ball for 4-6 weeks, then went stone cold like a lot of the rest of vets and new faces.

I haven't seen that much lamenting over Horwitz' loss. Likely because of so much preoccupation over the uncertainty over Vlad. And the fact that Horwitz was a league average type without a position given the hope to sign Guerrero into perpetuity.

But what of the Joey Loperfidos, the Will Wagners, the Nathan Lukes (though another internal guy), the bevy of mid-to-low Top 30 prospects that the Jays acquired.

Why haven't we seen more roster churning on the margins for a team that for all intents and purposes is all-in for Vlad and Bo's walk year?

Are the Jays playing both sides, trying to sneak into the playoffs while also hording marginal assets to retool in 2026 when both stars may be gone? Is the team too close to their budget ceiling that they can't exchange youth for pricier contracts? Are they keeping their powder dry with lots of budget room allocated for the few straggler FAs out there and Vlad's potential extension?

Is the league so unimpressed with the pool of prospects they acquired last year by purging all the walk-year veterans that the FO has been unable to convert anything but Horwitz into a 2025 MLB asset?

Hearing the Blue Jays are working to acquire additional international bonus pool room as they await Roki Sasaki’s decision. Doesn’t mean a decision has been made. To be expected from all finalists for the right-hander, so they’re ready for all possibilities.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) January 17, 2025

That’s a lot of money to eat up on a bad player if it’s a Hail Mary attempt.

Cleveland is covering $3.75 million of the remaining $15.5 million owed to Myles Straw, source tells me & @ShiDavidi.

Also worth noting: Straw's money counts towards the Blue Jays' CBT calculations regardless of whether he's on their 40-man.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 17, 2025

One thing the Blue Jays can do that the Dodgers can't is offer Sasaki a higher signing bonus https://t.co/N4NGunnt5g

— Brandon Wile (@Brandon_N_Wile) January 17, 2025

That said, I have zero faith that MLB would do anything to what has become their flagship franchise. This is an organization that in its recent past, has covered up physical and sexual assaults by minor leaguers in its system, has been investigated by the US DOJ on RICO violations (human trafficking) and there has been nary a peep from MLB.

The last time I recall the Jays ending up with some leftover IFA signing bucks very late in the cycle with everyone else already spoken for, they ended up getting creative by going to some non-traditional markets to sign Sem Robberse. And sign Yosver Zueleta out of Cuba.

Boy, if that is the case Sasaki is in for a surprise come January 20 ...

Same here. On the surface, the Straw trade looks awful, exchanging something like 13 million in multiyear payroll room in exchange for 2 million in unsigned IFA pool bucks.

If you went back in the Box' archives to the JPR/Bud Selig era and the Jays adhering strictly to the MLB's draft slotting bonus recommendations before the draft & CBA were overhauled, you'd come across many Bauxites advocating that the Jays should maximize their player development chances in ways that only cost resources from Rogers pocket.

In a lot of ways, this trade has the potential to do the same. The Jays may have added 2 million dollars worth of international prospects to their system with the only cost being that is overall cost Rogers itself something like 12-17 million from their coffers to purchase the extra prospects.

Of course, it's not 2005 anymore, so there are many new rules and bean counter calculations.

The extra prospects may cost more than just Rogers money if pushing over CBT thresholds from the extra dead payroll dollars lowers future IFA pools as penalties.

• C: Bal 3.9, Jays 3.5, NYY 3.1, Rays 2.2, Bos 1.5
• 1B: Jays 3.8, Rays 2.6, Bos 2.3, Bal 1.6, NYY 0.6
• 2B: Jays 3.9, Bal 3.4, Rays 3.1, NYY 2.4, Bos 2.2
• 3B: Bos 3.9, Bal 3.6, NYY 2.9, Rays 2.3, Jays 2.0
• SS: Bal 6.1, Jays 3.3, NYY 3.3, Bos 2.6, Rays 2.3
• LF: Bos 3.5, Bal 3.4, NYY 2.0, Jays 2.0, Rays 1.5
• CF: Bal 3.1, Jays 2.9, Bos 2.8, NYY 2.8, Rays 1.7
• RF: NYY 7.9, Bos 3.0, Bal 2.6, Rays 2.4, Jays 1.6
• DH: Bos 2.0, Bal 1.6, Rays 1.6, NYY 1.3, Jays 0.9
• SP: Rays 3.5-3.1-2.7-2.3-1.8-1.8 (15.2), NYY 3.7-3.6-2.5-2.0-1.9-1.1 (14.8), Bos 4.6-3.2-2.3-2.2-1.0-0.9 (14.2), Jays 3.8-2.8-2.7-2.3-1.6-0.6 (13.8), Bal 2.9-2.7-2.2-1.2-0.9-0.5-0.5 (10.9)
• RP: NYY 4.3, Bal 3.9, Bos 3.8, Rays 3.4, Jays 3.2
• Net: NYY 45.4, Bal 44.1, Bos 41.8, Rays 41.7, Jays 40.9

More complicated was what to do with the remaining money. A trip to Taiwan to scout a few players delivered a less conclusive look, as they were out of season and tougher to gauge. Then there was the Netherlands, where teenagers Jiorgeny Casimiri, a hard-throwing righty, and Max Kops, a toolsy outfielder, were working out with the Dutch under-18 program. The Blue Jays signed Casimiri for $225,000, while Kops opted for an American college. But before the deadline hit, they also added another pitcher. This was a player they had tracked in the past but who very easily could have been overlooked because he didn’t pop the radar gun. Instead, Tinnish placed a $125,000 bet on the advanced pitching mechanics and maturity of Sem Robberse, who has since emerged as one the club’s top pitching prospects.

So the last time the Jays had some extra and late expiring 1.5 mil IFA pool money after trading away Dwight Smith Jr and Kendrys Morales in camp, they ended up with Zulueta, Robberse and Casimiri (a now 22 y/o reliever signed in his teens that left the system in '23). So it gives a rough idea of what could potentially be expected from an unaccounted for 2 million IFA pool. Robberse was half of the price to rent Jordan Hicks for the '23 pennant run. Zulueta is peculiar. He rose to be a Top 5 prospect in a bad Toronto system, seems to have been mismanaged in being lost on waivers and has at least made the MLB. Casimiri is gone and was in the BAL system last year. But he was signed young and had 5 years in the system to be evaluated and progress.

• 2024: Signed all but their last 2 picks (rounds 19+20)
• 2023: Missed rounds 14, 17 + 18
• 2022: Missed round 16, 18, 20 (note: Kasevich & Roden below slot signings as was Ryan Jennings, & T.J. Brock - all 4 are in our top 30 prospects) - had 3 2nd round picks (Kasevich, Toman, and Doughty)
• 2021: Missed 16 & 20, no 2nd round pick (lost due to free agency)

• #11: Manny Cedeno a SS from San Pedro de Macorís (Jays have had a bit of luck there with SS in the past). Tied to the Yankees but not signed yet.
• #12 Ayden Johnson another SS, bat first (nice) from the Bahamas. Tied to the A's but not signed yet.
• #15 Diego Tornes an OF from Cuba, switch hitter with power from both sides and a strong arm. Tied to Atlanta but, yeah, not signed yet. FG has him higher, 4th highest non Japanese player at a 45+ value.
• #21 Jhoan De La Cruz SS from, you guessed it, San Pedro de Macorís. Tied to the Padres, but hasn't been signed.

Yeah, I think this is the way to frame it rather than "the FO dummies traded 11 million dollars away for nothing".

As I've posted here a few times, the FO traded for 1.5 million in bonus IFA cap room in the spring of 2019 in exchange for Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr.

They got creative and signed Cuban defector Yosver Zulueta, Sem Robberse and another 18 y/o Dutch prospect named Casmiri.

If the Straw trade is reframed as taking on 11 million in dead money in exchange for the 2025 equivalent of Zulueta, Robberse, Casmiri and possibly another prospect or two in value, it may still not be advisable but makes way more sense in baseball terms.

Interesting that Bichette was among those that traveled to Toronto to pitch Sasaki. https://t.co/jCtKFfpHYn

— Brandon Wile (@Brandon_N_Wile) January 19, 2025

It didn't lead to a deal with Roki Sasaki, but Bo Bichette, Daulton Varsho & Chad Green still deserve lots of credit for making the trip to Toronto to welcome Sasaki and support the organization https://t.co/mpKoD6weqz

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 19, 2025

January 6, 2006: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Milwaukee Brewers for Brian Wolfe.

I think you confused Koskie's FA signing by JPR from Minnesota with his later salary dump trade to Milwaukee to clear room on the roster for Glaus and Shea Hillebrand.

Koskie in 2005 was probably JPR's 1st "big" FA signing after being hired years before to oversee austerity.

Hard to believe the Koskie signing was 20 years ago. And that Corey is only 51.

• 3+ WAR (solid, star potential): Vlad, Giménez, Kirk
• 2+ WAR (solid regular): Bo, Varsho, Wagner, Schneider (surprised me), Gausman, Berrios
• 1.5+ WAR (meh, backup unless develop): Barger, Jimenez, McAdoo, Stefanic, Roden, Clement, Springer, Bassitt (1.9)
• 1+ WAR (ugh): Clase, Lukes, Loperfido, Francis, RodriguezManoah, Eric Lauer (? - a NRI), Hoffman (1.2 in the pen is damn nice)
• rest are sub 1 - who cares level. Orelvis listed at 0.3 over 447 PA (ugh)