The AL playoff teams should go something like this. 6 in, 9 out. 3 V good, 3 V bad I am guessing. I don't see the Jays in either category. So likely 3 positions available for the Jays to put up a competitive season each year.

Playoff is something else. Why did Freeman and Teo out hit Ohtani by such a big margin? Sort of suggests that in any series a V good player's O can disappear. Regarding D a good D player should not be bad in any series but rather good in all series. So Gimenez should have consistent good value based on his D. Makes sense?

Unfortunately the longer it goes, the more the media claims that the jays are "favorites" to sign Burnes sound like Burnes' agent trying to get other teams to up their bids.

Agreed uglyone - for Soto I didn't see the Jays as being there just to up the price due to the 2 NY's being in it, but this time I can see it being the case. That Burnes doesn't really want to come here but wants the Jays to push the Giants up in price. I suspect he was counting on the 2 NY's to push it up but Soto & Fried screwed that plan up, and Snell took LAD out of the picture.

Anyone else go to FanGraphs Walk-Off? Basically shows anyone who is a subscriber a ton of facts. Player page I looked at most was Justin Turner, then Vlad, KK, IKF, Barger, Springer, Horwitz, Bo, Loperfido, Bellinger. I spend waaay too much time on the leaderboards (1573 times looking at them) 97th percentile. I'm in the top 10% of users (93 percentile to be exact), Top user of 'The Board', Data Digger (gee, shocking eh?), and Leaderboard Legend. Dan Szymborski's articles are the ones I read the most.

D Williams to NYY.

Tucker and Cubs in play.

Tucker for #73 prospect Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes is the rumoured base of an Astros - Cubs deal.

Vlad would get a lesser return than Kyle Tucker.

Bringing in Gimenez has to mean Bo or Nimmala or going out.

OMG - if that is all Tucker costs then I damn well hope the Jays are in on it. 2 prospects? That's it? Yes, it is just 1 year of control but 1 year of a guy with a 181 OPS+ last year, 139 lifetime. Of course, he missed a big chunk of last season but he did come back in September and had a sOPS+ of 199 so I'd guess he is still damn good. Right now he and Vlad are 1-2 for next winters free agency.

Devin Williams is damn fine as a closer but missed the first half of 2024 and, as with all relievers, there is that massive injury risk. He is damn fine though (15.8 K/9 last year, 14.3 lifetime).

Nimmala and Orelvis for 1 year of Tucker?

Would make more sense to deal Jimenez than Nimmala.
Nimmala is 18 year old. There's no need to trade him.

I imagine the Astros getting Paredes back is pretty crucial to the deal. A good MLB player now and a cheaper, more controllable Bregman replacement.

Yeah Paredes is not a prospect... he has three years of control and has been 115-130 wRC+ the last 3... key for a perennial contender like Houston.

Gimenez in no way impacts Nimmala and Toronto needs more high-end impact bats not less. Plus why trade away prospects when you're still 4-5 players away from being competitive for a wildcard spot... unless that player has 4+ years of control...

Tucker to the Cubs is official according to Passan. With that said, Paredes alone is worth more than anything the Jays could have offered for Tucker. A 25-year old 3B with 3 years of control left coming off consecutive 3-4 WAR seasons with a well above average bat. You could argue the Jays should have traded Vladdy in a move like this (for Paredes +), but I'm sure the Cubs are higher on Tucker than Vlad.

As far as who to trade, I've said before I think Jimenez is going to be moved this winter, even more so now that they acquired Gimenez. Leo is out of options and there's no clear path to playing time for him. The only potential hope for him was SS when Bichette left, but that spot has been filled with Gimenez.

Chandler Rome
@Chandler_Rome
·
10m
Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith is done, pending medicals, sources tell
@TheAthletic

Man of you cant sign Vlad to a fair deal and you can get SEA to pony up for any deal like that you have to do it. Cubs just got sooooo much better.

SK in NJ - yeah agreed, Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes is a deal the Jays couldn't match - I should've checked who was listed there rather than assuming it was 2 minor leaguers.  Houston is too well run to do something dumb like take 2 non-top 5 prospects in MLB for a guy like Tucker.  I suspect Houston feels they cannot resign Tucker next winter thus felt the need to deal him.  Now the Cubs will be desperate to deal Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki or both ASAP to clear payroll and playing time.  I'd go for Suzuki (cheaper, appears fairly solid/consistent) although Bellinger is always interesting (very variable, but if he is on he can be MVP material, if off he could be replacement level).  Doubt they want to deal Ian Happ (120 OPS+ last year, 115 lifetime, gold glove for LF) signed for 2025/26 for $40 mil total.  Any of those 3 would be nice to stick into the Jays LF slot, or get 2 and give them Springer (ain't going to happen).

Tucker is a better player projected to make half Vladdy's salary so no, you can't get teams to pony up like that.

I don't know about contract projections, but Vladdy is 2yrs younger and is likely the slightly better hitter.

Tucker does have more defensive value but i'm not sure the numbers like his defense as much as the eye test does.

Very nice trade for Houston. Helps their future without hurting their present. Cubs did well too. The NLC is the weakest division in the NL so they should compete.

Paredes was a Detroit Int'l signing that was not a big signing then he got traded to TB and later to the Cubs. So talent is everywhere. Kirk and Moreno were not big signings by the Jays for comparison.

It's absolutely why you need to trade Vlad if toy can't sign him. Astros got a 25 year old 3 WAR player, a top-100 prospect and an interesting pitcher. Vlad would certainly get similar back. Sign him or trade him.

Jays with a "big" pitcher signing: Eric Lauer, who was roughed up at AAA and in Korea.

Now Atkins is in his comfort zone.

Glevin - you just made me laugh loudly. 25 year old 3 WAR player? We just got one - for Horwitz. And people complained, loudly, all over the net. Vlad would easily get that much plus one would think. The difference here is that Paredes has never had a 5+ fWAR season unlike Giménez, and has more offensive value and much (much) less fielding value.

Not a shot at you, but at the insanity of Jays fans in general. We get a young, 3 WAR player for next to nothing and we complain because he isn't a 30 HR hitter. We see someone else deal a 181 OPS+ hitter but feel they did good because they got a 3B who hits 20-30 HR. All I can say is thank god Atkins doesn't change his methods based on online comments, or media reactions.

Eric Lauer is a LHP which the Jays need in the pen.  He only gets paid if he makes the roster (non-roster invitee right now). He has had a lot of injury issues and had a couple of decent years in Milwaukee's rotation (21/22) before the injuries hit hard.  I see him as a 7/8th guy in the pen who can fill in if needed in the rotation - you need 7 or 8 minimum for the rotation to be safe and he is around #8/9/10 for the Jays now.  His K/9 in Korea and AAA last year were fairly solid - and don't forget, Korea is a hitters league. I see him as a decent 'why not' guy for a spring invite - $2.2 mil deal if he makes the ML roster so not exactly a back breaker (blew about that on Vogelbach for who knows what reason last year).

Ugh. Just read that Santander wants a 5 year deal. No thanks. Much too long imo. 3 years is as far as I'd go with a pure slugger with near 0 defensive value. Just a 114 OPS+ lifetime, going into his age 30 season. 3.0 fWAR is his peak value. Yeah, he'd be nice for 1-2 years, maybe even 3 but imo that is pushing it - signing pure sluggers post 32 is rarely a good idea.

Parades has significantly more value because his contract is $6M in 2025 going into arbitration two more years. Gimenez has $20M a year. That being said, I think there are two main reasons Jays won't trade Vlad. One, is they know it will tank season tickets. Two is that they know their jobs depend on winning some playoff games so they're all in on this year.

Rumour has it Santander wants five years. I think he'll be an awful contract for 3 years so 5 is crazy.

The issue with Gimenez, John, is that the WAR (which is a terrible way to grade players) is tied almost entirely up in defense... and it's empty offence on a team desperate for offence. Horwitz is the complete opposite.

Marc,
Your hate for this FO is a lot! Your facts and opinions and insight is greatly valued though. You always have fresh takes that are grounded in analytics and sound reasoning, dont let your rips of the FO cover up those takes.

Kyle Tucker is the better hitter for 1 year for acquiring teams because he bats left handed, has good power and is cheaper. Vlad would get you less. I am wondering who Beauxites (and industry in general) thinks has more value...Bichette or Horwitz. I'd assume Horwitz.

I don't think Vlad gets you less than Tucker. I think it's a very similar return. Good young player under team control and top-100 prospect and something else. I said Woo and Celesten+ from Seattle as an example but with other teams bidding, could probably do more. Jays could also even pay down some salary to get better return. Still prefer extension but it needs to be one or the other.

Oh my lord. Guys, I love Horwitz but realistically his ceiling is very, very low. We are talking Lyle Overbay lite. Peaked at 22 HR, 126 OPS+ 3.3 bWAR. Horwitz has 425 ML PA's so far, 123 OPS+ 2.2 bWAR/162 average. That is a very 'meh' player at best unless you think he can actually play 2B (he can't). I would be surprised if he reaches 10 WAR total in his career. I doubt Pittsburgh will get much more from him than they did from the last 'great hope' at 1B from the Jays - Rowdy Tellez (0.4 bWAR lifetime, -0.4 for Pittsburgh). And no, Luis Ortiz is nothing special either - 6.9 K/9 lifetime (238 IP) vs 3.8 BB/9 - at best he is Ross Stripling - 9 year career, 2 good years, 0 great ones.

I don't know about contract projections, but Vladdy is 2yrs younger and is likely the slightly better hitter.

Is age really relevant when valuing Tucker vs Vlad when evaluating their worth on a one-year rental?

I suppose it could be argued that younger is better wrt potential extensions. But I would surmise that the trade return for both is contingent on simply the one pennant run year unless the deal involves an explicit window to negotiate an extension.

For a 1 year rental it would pretty much just depend on what the team needs for that year. Tucker to the Cubs seems odd as they have a surplus of OF as is, and were desperate to dump 1 or 2 of them. Right now they have Ian Happ-Bellinger-Tucker with Suzuki as the DH and 2 kids on the bench (as OF'ers) so they could get away with it, but the cost is $27.5 (Bellinger), $21 (Happ), $19 (Suzuki), and $18 for Tucker = $85.5 million for OF/DH. Ouch. Kind of makes me think of the Jays rotation where 3 are $20 million men (hopefully 4 soon by signing Burnes).

It'll be interesting to see if the Cubs do trade at least one of their OF'ers (Bellinger or Suzuki are the ones they are trying to). Could fit in nicely with the Jays. The obvious hole in ChiTown is 3B after this trade - they have a hotshot rookie who might take it over in Matt Shaw but he has 0 ML experience so I suspect they want a backup plan. Would you trade Clement as part of a package to get one of those 2 OF'ers? I'd consider it, but be very nervous about it too and only do it if I felt Vlad was going to take over 3B until some kids are ready (Orelvis, Barger, Wagner, whoever - each has their flaws but any might work).

I'm very curious how the Jays will proceed for the rest of the winter. I suspect they are debating a lot of things - 1 hitter and 1 starting pitcher is the goal. Teoscar, Santander both could be that hitter. Or they could do a trade with the Cubs (sounds like the Yankees might be after Bellinger though - desperate team with cash to waste) or with someone else (no idea who is open to trading a power hitting OF otherwise).

If both the Jays and Cubs fail to sign long term deals boy will next winter be interesting with Vlad and Tucker though eh?

"The issue with Gimenez, John, is that the WAR (which is a terrible way to grade players) is tied almost entirely up in defense... and it's empty offence on a team desperate for offence."

Marc, I really honestly do not understand the logic of your argument about how good defense is not a good measure of a player's value when you need better offense. I happen to think that my salary should be a lot higher, but you know what, I still appreciate a lower deductible on my benefits that save me money when I go to the doctor. It makes me richer in a different way. (Can you tell I live the States?)
And more offense may still come from different trades/signings.)

Since 2020, according to fangraphs, Gimenez is #9 in baseball in defensive value and #17 in baserunning value. I'd love for him to bounce back to be a decent hitter again but even as a poor hitter, he's a valuable player.

Glevin - depends on your sort/filter. With just 1 IP required I got Kirk as #9 in their Defensive value, Gimenez #18. For the top 11, 9 are catchers, other 2 SS. Gimenez the top 2B, by a 2 over Semien despite Semien having 1000+ more innings.

Go by DRS and you get Varsho at 83 for the OF, Kiermaier #2 at 53 (!!!!). For single positions (Varsho screwed over due to so much mix/match CF/LF) and Giménez is #2 at 58 behind Ke'Bryan Hayes at 3B (75). Semien #6, Chapman #10, Varsho in CF is #12, Kirk #17, Moreno #24, Varsho in LF #29.

OAA has Giménez #4 with 50, Kiermaier #11, Varsho in CF #30 (has 49 overall in the OF which would be 5th overall just behind Gimenez). Basically the only way to make the Jays defense more insane now would be to add Dansby Swanson at SS and Ke'Bryan Hayes at 3B. Uh oh, hopefully I didn't just put that into the air and now Atkins will do that. Swanson would be sweet but Hayes bat has gone missing (if it ever existed).

Me i love me some angry Marc Hulet.

The issue with Gimenez is that he's going to be making over 23M a year for 27 to 29.
You can't fill a roster with while paying everybody that much.
Horwitz was making the minimum, that's his real value.
Varsho will be making less than 8M.

This team desperately need to find a cheap starter or two.

Gimenez is in the 100th percentile for range.
62th for arm speed which might be why he's not playing shortstop.
7th for bat speed. 6th for chase rate, 5th for walk rate.

Going into this offseason most people identified the Jay's needs as 1) More power/ adding a couple of bats to the lineup 2) relief pitching as the bullpen blew a bunch of games and spoiled some games where the starters pitched well 3) another starting pitcher.

Nobody is saying that Gimenez is not a good player but it seems that for the second year in a row Atkins is doubling down on defense when there are greater needs elsewhere. As Scott has pointed out, Giminez will be taking up a lot of the supposed money available for free agents, players that are needed for left field or a starting pitcher position.

At this point I have no idea what Atkin/Shapiro have as a plan. Sign one more name free agent then go dumpster diving for the rest of the winter? Hope the team can win a bunch of 1-0 and 2-1 games next season with brilliant defense and little offense? Hope that Springer, Varsho and Bichette will better their 2024 batting totals and that will improve the offense?

I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic. There's a lot of time left before spring to improve the team but right now it's a mess.

Agreed Island Boy and, more to the point, the acquisition of Gimenez was an inefficient use of scare resources (players/prospects and payroll room). Gimenez is a good player but plays a position that they got something approximating league average production from last year and I think they would have gotten something like league average production from next year from the existing resources (Wagner, Clement, Jimenez). They blew a chunk of their player/prospect and payroll resources for a marginal improvement at 2B when there are much bigger holes on the roster to fill. Now, as I said the other day, if this is effectively acknowledging a need to fill the SS position for the next few years then there may be a way to see the sense in this.

Yes in a vacuum, Gimenez is a very good ball player. He's not what the Jays needed at this price point and % of the team's budget for three of the next five years when he's earning $23M. I'm fine with him at upwards of $10-$12M.

I also don't believe they have a realistic path to being competitive over the next couple of years.

There are too many roster holes and New York, Boston, and Baltimore are much better positioned in terms of their big league rosters, depth, ability to develop and identify talent, etc.

Maybe the Jays are rebuilding but not telling anyone.

The last rebuild started right after the 2018 trade deadline. Players like D Jansen and R McGuire were promoted while R Martin sat and maybe helped out the 2 rookie Cs. Stroman was traded at the 2019 deadline but he had a bad 2018 so maybe they wanted his value to increase. That was a good fast rebuild resulting in 4 good years. I don't know their post 2018 trade deadline record to the end of 2018 and how it compares to the post 2024 deadline record.

Signing Bournes would be a strong signal that 2025 is not a rebuild. Also signing Gimenez and still having a strong rotation says that the want a better record for 2025 than 2019. They did improve the pen for 2025.

They had more money to spend after 2019 which they used on good FAs. They don't have any money now. This means money under the luxury cap.

They are not rebuilding. Shapiro and Atkins have been clear that "the core needs to be added to."The Giminez deal represents what they've been doing basically since they took over, especially with a team they expect to contend. Adding flexibility, raising the floor, emphasizing run prevention while taking on a bit of salary. They've been equally middle of the road in trading prospects. 
My quarrel all along has been their strict adherence to valuations and only going over their limit for a very small number of players. At a certain point, if you're a big market, you have to risk more. It's clear the core they built even with good health and decent production isn't good enough....glad they've figured that out a year too late. Now it's time to make damn sure a couple big free agents take their money this time, and make that more risky trade or they will have completely wasted what 3-4 years ago looked a golden age of Jays baseball. 

J Springs from TB to Oakland for 3 players. Prospect Will Simpson looks like he can hit.

Saying the Jays prioritize defense I don't think is accurate. They prioritize value and are finding it in defense right now. For example, Gimenez is a much better player than Santander. Younger, more value, more important position. Santander is going to get paid way more than Gimenez makes and will be much less valuable. Also, the idea that 2B wasn't a concern because they managed to be OK last year doesn't make sense. They would be projected to be a bottom team at 2B this year and will now projected to be a top team. I get the Gimenez criticism is it stops the Jays from adding elsewhere.

The legitimate criticism IMO is about overall team direction. What's the plan here? Last year I thought the plan was weak but I understood it. This year, the plan seems to be "save our jobs no matter what".

I think the plan is to not make statements or have any particular "direction." They try and make the team better based on the resources they have, and their own systems, evaluations, and management style. That's it. That's the plan. So far, this has not borne enough fruit both in the minors or the major league squad. Couple that with their failure to read free agent markets, poor communication style, tone deafness, and general "read a room" factor has them backed into a corner both in the standings and with the fan base. As I said, a rebuild or retool or whatever want to call it, isn't happening. The time to be uber-aggressive and make moves is now or never. 

Agreed that their plan doesn't have a specific direction, it's just trying to get the best talent they can within their available resources. This is definitely not a subtle rebuild like 2018 was. They knew 2018 was going to be bad but they couldn't rebuild, so they just signed or traded for placeholders that they could move when things predictably failed. I don't think Gimenez qualifies as that type of pickup. It has the same premise as the Varsho trade.

The 2023 team with Vlad as a 5 WAR player would have been hosting playoff games. Instead he was a 1 WAR player and they backed into the last playoff spot. I think the FO truly believes that the 2023 model was the correct one and are trying to recreate it, except with the expectation that Vlad and Bo are both elite players in their contract years. I guess it depends on how they fill the edges of the roster. Gimenez may not be the conventional looking "high ceiling" player, but he actually qualifies given his history. They need a few more of those types of moves. Corbin Burnes at the top of the rotation wouldn't hurt either, but I suspect that's a pipe dream.

One thing to remember about any plan they may or may not have and if they have or should have changed it is that in their minds, they have done a very very good job with this team over their tenure.

I think it's too early to say they've done a very very good job. I think the team has to make the playoffs in '25 to keep that assessment alive. If they don't, Atkins is gone and maybe Shapiro is too. Then it's fair to do an autopsy. If the make the playoffs this year they've probably got themselves another contract, especially if the team actually does some damage in October. So the only grand statement that's been made is that this is a massive off-season for this regime and this franchise. That's why I've said I believe there will be unprecedented spending and an aggressive trade or two this off-season, as there should be. I don't think it's a matter of Ed Rogers not giving these guys the money, either. Ed probably doesn't want to make a change, and there's enough of a track record under these guys that one could reasonably assume that with some more cash, they'd be able to get the team back into contention next year, pay Vlad and perhaps Bo, and start another good run.

Oh i don't agree with them, but they definitely believe they've done a good job.

Yes, sorry ugly. My reading comprehension was bad there.

Agreed, SK. Had Vlad played like an MVP or close in '22 and '23 we're probably not having a conversation like this today. The team wins 3-4 more games in the regular season, probably grabs the second wildcard spot and probably makes a deeper playoff run. There's even a pretty wide gulf between going down in a hard fought 3 game wildcard series or a 4-5 game ALDS than having been swept both times like the Jays have.
I think the Corbin Burnes decision is pretty seismic. It will boost the attractiveness of the Jays in free agency, especially this year, and maybe they get the lineup holes filled in better just by having caught a big fish. On the field, having a bona fide ace certainly helps the bullpen situation too, not as many innings are needed from middle/late relief when Burnes is carving up lineups every five days. It rejuvanates the fan base, it proves Shapiro/Atkins can get the big fish. It ruins a lot of the haters narrative.

Carlos Baerga says Vlad turned down a $340M offer last month and says Vlad is looking for a $500M deal.

$340 M seems low now but last month before big signings was reasonable. $500M is insane for him right now. If he has another 165 WRC+ sort of season, maybe one team will give it to him but I remain skeptical. If he can meet in the middle, then get it done. Like 13/$450 or something.

15 year deal for Vladdy? Might get him in the mid-$400s.

I saw something from a more reliable source yesterday or the day before that said Jays offered $350/10 and he asked for $450/10.

So what would be ideal now? We really have no idea what the Jays budget is - it seems very variable depending on opportunity so I'm going to guess they can go to the edge of the 2nd tier if they want/need to. So using Cot's to get a base and room left...

• 1st Tier: $23.7 mil left: can add 1 player (say, Teoscar) and be around it.
• 2nd Tier: $43.7 mil left: can add 1 star and 1 meh. So 8/$250 = $31.25 per and that appears to be the current bid, leaving $12.5 mil roughly, enough to get 2 middle of the road relievers or 1 closer.
• 3rd Tier: $63.7 mil left: very unlikely they go there, but if they could then Burnes & Teoscar are possible plus some more relief help.

So not as nightmarish as it could be, but not as good as we'd like. Gimenez having a lower raw $ salary this year helps, as does Springer, but Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Bo, and Yariel Rodriguez all get paid more in $ than the CBT figure which hurts. The whole thing is complicated. But I figure we can safely estimate the Jays have $20-40 mil available right now for the right players. No Burnes or Teoscar or Santander then no going up there unless via a trade. An ideal trade would send Springer away while bringing in someone of similar payroll size who can perform (probably sending a prospect away to help compensate the other team in the process).

Let's do some highly scientific back of the envelope calculations. From Wikipedia:

“Alex Rodriguez signed two record-breaking contracts over the course of his career. First, he signed a $252 million, 10-year contract with the Texas Rangers n December 2000 ($445,857,391 inflation-adjusted from 2000 dollars).”

That’s about 45 million per year over 10 years. So he was willing to sign a contract roughly equivalent to what Guerrero is looking at now (though he did negotiate an even bigger salary later). Rodriguez is clearly a better player than Guerrero given their relative defense.

How much have times changed? Soto is making 51million per year over 15 years. The value will depreciate with inflation, so effectively a bit less money than a 10 year contract because it will depreciate five more years. If you might say that Rodriguez is in the same tier of talent as Rodriguez, it’s not quite as big a jump in average value  as I would have expected.

Guerrero is worth a lot, but if he is asking for $450m over 10 I think he’d be lucky to get it. What we don’t know, is if this is a serious bargaining position with room to move, or whether he’s dug his heels in. In the latter case, I would expect him to be traded

How hold would it be to trade Vlad and Bo,l for immediate help and top prospects and then use the 50 million you save (minus the returning players salary) plus the available budget left to go sign Burnes and Teoscar and Pederson and a RP? You probably have enough money to do that ifnyou trade your two core players.

Mobile user here...apologies for typos.

Does anyone know of any media folks with Jays content who 1. Are not toxic or 2. Don't work for Rogers? I really enjoy a good podcast when I can find it.

I tried listening to Mike Wilner and Gregor Chisholm and my god are they awful...basically just bashing the front office non stop while suggesting ridiculous takes. One of their major points was that Gimenez is a terrible acquisition because of his salary but in the same breath they say you have to overpay for Vlad to get him signed...to a high salary that lowers his value like Gimenez? No sanity only complaining. Wilner especially used to always defend the front office but now that he doesn't work for them he's taking shots with outlandish takes "they should have signed Vlad 2 years ago for 280 million." Between all of that and them concluding the Jays screwed up with Romano because Dave Dombrowski signed him to be the closer and Dave Dombrowski is a WS winner ... I was cringing. After bashing Gimenez they advocate to sign Yoan Moncada and that's when I shut it off.

The best I have found is Richard Griffin and his new podcast partner. Critical but fair takes with healthy doses of optimism. For anyone that wants to hear how terrible, cheap, out of touch, condescending and useless this front office is...give Wilner's latest episode a listen where he refers and features Gregor Chisholm. It's also baffling that he has to refer to Chisholm as the resident "expert" probably because he's been at The Star longer (its a Toronto Star owned podcast). Gregor (Chisholm) you can actually hear him laughing multiple times as the jokes that Wilner makes about the front office. To reference an Adam Sandler film..."What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

Good one dalimon5. I did get a good laugh. Thanks.

Any recommendations for other podcasts? BNS and Arden Zwelling are pretty good, but they are owned by Rogers so that removes them from eligibility.

I generally enjoy Wilner's podcasts (he gets solid guests regularly) but boy does he have a strong rage towards the current front office. Sometimes I wonder if they ran over his dog or if he holds them responsible for him being fired.

Griffin I used to think of as a hack back in the day - someone whose articles tended to be so negative that I just stopped reading them. I'll give his podcast a shot though based on your recommendation (doesn't cost anything so why not?). Used to listen to 'Jays Talk' on the podcast format but that is for people desperate for any Jays content imo, really weak - just the radio post-game show pretty much.

Oakland is definitely trying to improve if not compete for a playoff spot. SPs Sears, Spence and Estes did OK in 2024. They have added L Severino and J Springs. The 6th SP is Hoglund after a bit more AAA experience. I think they will improve in 2025.

Weird winter - A's trying to improve (have to have a $100+ million payroll or lose revenue sharing). Just 3 FA hitters getting 3+ years so far (Soto, Adames, and O'Neill) vs 7 FA pitchers getting 3+ years (Fried, Snell, Kikuchi, Wacha, Eovaldi, Severino, and Holmes). Very odd given historically teams prefer shorter terms for pitchers as they are so insanely variable.

Nick Raposo DFA'd.

John,

Seems like our tastes align. I followed Richard Griffin a long time ago then stopped reading due to his negativity as well. Not sure what changed with him but his take on the Gimenez deal is positive. Exit Philosophy was the one I heard.

Used to listen to 'Jays Talk' on the podcast format but that is for people desperate for any Jays content imo, really weak - just the radio post-game show pretty much.

Does Jays Talk even take live callers anymore?

I listened to it postgame a few years back and it seemed to be only fans texting in not takes to an intern who couldn't get off the air fast enough.

To me #1 is maximize potential for the team. What has a player done, and what are they expected to do? Using fWAR their highest and lowest over 100+ games in the 20's and 2025 projection

• C-Kirk: 4.3 to 2.3, proj 4.0-4.1
• 1B-Vlad: 6.3 to 1.3, proj 5.0-5.2
• 2B-Giménez: 6.1 to 2.8 proj 3.0-3.1
• 3B-Clement: 2.2 (just 1 year) proj 1.6-1.7
• SS-Bo: 4.9-3.9, proj 3.4-3.6 (just 81 games last year)
• LF-Loperfido: NA, proj 0.1-0.2 (yikes)
• CF-Varsho: 4.4-2.1, proj 2.8-2.9
• RF-Springer: 4.1-1.2, proj 1.8-1.9
• DH-Wagner: NA, proj 0.9; Schneider: 0.4 proj 0.7-0.8

Well, the holes are pretty damn obvious LF, DH and 3B. Peak potential is 32.3 (using everyone's best 2020's season), projection 22.1-23.6, bottom 15.8 (worst 2020's full season).

So what does that mean? That we have a hitter roster than has a potential 16.5 win difference when they play healthy over the past 4 years (dumb luck on health and the like). Last year the best team in MLB had 33.8 fWAR from its hitters (Arizona & LAD) Yankees had 33.7, all others sub 30. 8 teams were lower than the worst case for the Jays everyday lineup (if they all play 100+ games) - the White Sox were negative, with 5 more teams sub 10 fWAR from their hitters. So yeah, things could be a heck of a lot worse. One of those teams was Pittsburgh who traded with the Jays to try to sneak into the playoffs (IKF for McAdoo) - yikes. So the Jays have 2-3 obvious problems, Clement mixed with kids might cover 3B (Barger, Orelvis, etc.), same in LF and DH (Schneider, Loperfido, Clase, Roden, etc.). But like all of you I'd like the Jays to get a vet to cover at least one of those 3 slots. Pederson looking better by the day with the budget issues and his being LH to mix with Schneider, or you go for a guy like Profar who is a switch hitter and can just go out there or be split with any kid. At the moment (with no more signings) I'd expect a Loperfido/Schneider combo in LF or Lukes/Schneider. The RH half of a platoon gets very few PA generally (30-40 starts a year vs LHP) and Schneider could cover DH/2B as needed then.

Yeah, the more I look the more I fear pitching - we all know the nightmare the pen was (dead last in fWAR for the pen at -2.5, only the Rockies were negative as well last year). The starters at 10.6 fWAR were 17th, but outside of adding a star (Burnes) it is hard to see the Jays making any big improvements - yeah, I'd love Sasaki but I can't imagine he'll sign here. Jack Flaherty, the more I look the more I like but his injury issues over the years concerns me (in the '20's he only reached 150 IP once, last year). However, he is entering his age 29 season, thus still at peak, so if he is signing for a reasonable rate then he'd be a solid choice as I expect Burnes to go to SF. Manaea is more what the Jays seem to like lately - a guy who gives you 100+ every year, 150+ 3 of the past 4 years.

It'll be interesting to watch how the Jays handle it now that the biggest gun is gone and the last big gun is still in their sights but might go for less cash to be where he wants to live.

Does anyone know of any media folks with Jays content who 1. Are not toxic or 2. Don't work for Rogers? I really enjoy a good podcast when I can find it.

I can't vouch for either podcast because I haven't listened in a longtime.

But the two independent podcasts I remember are:

Andrew Stoeten - Tall Can Audio

The Walk Off Podcast

Old hat bauxites will remember Stoeten from the JP Ricciardi days and the old raunchy Drunk Jays Fans blog.

I could see some considering him toxic though I haven't followed him in a longtime. He was hired & fired by The Score a decade ago, went independent a few times. He also rumouredly was let go from The Athletic for interviewing Stephen Brunt while intoxicated.

I find Wilner usually insufferable even if I agree with him. Treating everyone like an idiot and like he has some unique insight. The lesson of social media is that anger drives interaction more than anything else so outrage is a default attempt and getting traffic. Of course, nobody beats Simmons for the stupidest takes. Here's his latest one

"Anthopoulos signed Acuna Jr for $17 million a year. Mets paid $51 million a year for Juan Soto. Acuna Jr is the better player.
Imagine what Anthopoulos would have done had he stayed with Blue Jays?"

Yes, seriously. Not satire.

Wilner thinking that he was smarter than the fans he tried so hard to condescend to was always worth a laugh.

And that’s pretty rich if he's turned jays critic now after being a lifelong defender against those silly irrational fans.

Dalimon, to answer your q above. I think what changed for Griffin was being employed by the club. He gives little insights here and there in the podcast about how the Jays are run and I think it shifted his perspective towards being more balanced.

Otherwise, I’m agreed on your takes about the podcasts. I tend to listen anyway and just yell at the radio, since I’m desperate for the content and it’s all we get :)

AA would have pouted because he would have a reduced level of autonomy. Any other take ignores the history of his departure. Is he a better GM than what the Jays have? Maybe, but it was a corporate decision to reconfigure baseball OPs, which seemed needed in June 2015, given AA and the FO configuration from the 90s.

I mean the big issue with Simmons there is comparing contracts of a free agent and an extension of someone in pre-arbitration. It's ludicrous. Why not, Yankees are paying Rodon $27M and Bowden Francis isn't even making $1M a year. Atkins genius confirmed!

Excellent point christaylor - in mid-2015 when the decision was made the Jays had 5 1/2 years of losing. In AA's years they were 4th 3 times, 5th once, and 3rd once, 10+ games out of 1st each year and never sniffing the playoffs. The 85 wins year one were the highest pre-2015. Shapiro was officially hired August 30th, but the Jays made it public they were hunting for a new president in January 2015, and a month before Shapiro took over the Jays were 52-51 6 games out of the AL East lead, only 2 games out of the playoffs but really, given the previous 20 years no one felt confident until all those trades happened. On July 28th they were sub 500 (50-51). By the time Shapiro officially was named president to be (taking over at the end of October) the Jays charged into 1st and were up 1 1/2 games. Still, it made a ton of sense at that stage to still be looking at replacing the old guy (Beeston) and look at replacing his kid GM (AA) as going into 2015 the team had disappointed, the farm was ranked #10 (good), but looking back the guys who made the BA top 100 were Daniel Norris (meh - 1 year over 2 WAR, 2 over 1 WAR vs 3 negative years), Aaron Sanchez (good but wasn't as good as hoped, 1 great year, 2 solid, 3 negative but best 2 were perfectly timed in 15/16), Dalton Pompey (flop), and Jeff Hoffman (flop - just 1.5 bWAR pre-2024).

We all loved AA at the time due to his surprising trades, and the fact he was Canadian too. Fun having a GM who could shock you at any time. Now he took over a team in Atlanta with tons of talent and did smart signings quickly with kids (picked the right ones) and has done a lot of very good trades. Is he perfect? No. When he left the only top 100 guy here was Anthony Alford (flop) but Vlad was in the system (16 years old). Atlanta pre-2024 had just 2 top 100 prospects, same as the Jays. So that area is still an issue for him. Yeah, I'd rather AA than Atkins, but no one can say for sure what would've happened if AA stayed. Would Bo have been drafted and signed in 2016? Would the Jays have made 3 out of 5 playoffs in the 20's? Impossible to know.

Andrew Stoeten - Tall Can Audio


Stoeten's sometimes a guest on Tall Can Audio, but his regular podcast is Blue Jays Happy Hour (co-hosted with Nick Ashbourne). That's a pretty good one for those looking for podcast content.

I find Stoeten very hard to hear because he mumbles a bunch. His co-host Nick Ashbourne is no bueno in my humble opinion...lots of babbling about grammar and self indulgence and deprecation. To be honest I already listen to everything and know the field well and I want more!

Blair and Barker - follows sensationalist approach but their guests are the best in the biz. Professional.

Bob McCown - just retired but I liked his takes both positive and negative and love how he called out anyone, in particular Simmons recently. Professional.

At the Letters - BNS and Arden Zwelling. Very measured approach, BNS is especially good but no guests and they can't go to far in criticism as owned by Rogers. Professional.

Gate 14 - kids podcast. Lots of swearing. Two gentlemen, former baseball pros, give unique perspective and they are friends with half the Blue Jays players. One of the hosts, Avery is very good while the other so so. They have very fair takes. Sometimes they speak about their weekend personal lives but their baseball insights are good. For example, they reached out to friends to get the inside scoop about Trey Yeasavage dropping in the draft due to his rib injury. They have the most Blue Jays players interviews which ironically I don't listen to. Amateur.

Deep Left Field Mike Wilner - the worst, see my notes ip( or down) thread. He gets lots of players to interview but I don't like listening to the player interviews. Other than that it's mostly him referring to special guest Gregor Chisholm and himself reading 5 star fan reviews on the air while soliciting subscriptions and counting each milestone (he still highlights every single episode number - today is our two hundred and sixty-seventh episode..." Professional.

Exit Philosophy - this one was weak as it featured Richard Griffin and his co host Scott McArthur who HATED the front office to the point where it killed the content...Now he is replaced by a new co host who used to work for the Blue Jays yet is highly critical of them (Sal something). It is probably in my top three now with Gate 14 and the Walkoff. Only bad part is the end when they feature NFL picks. Professional.

The Walkoff - this podcast is an amateur one but a bit of a gem. Run by teo stand up comics they are easy listening and have a balanced approach. Sometimes its only one of the two hosts along with guests and thats when the quality drops some. Amateur.

Happy Hour - Stoetens pod the worst imho

Less Than Jays - this was my favourite but they stopped producing out of frustration with the players (not the front office) I think.

Maybe he saw how Vlad improved after cutting his hair, or maybe he just wanted a new look, but Bo Bichette has trimmed his flowing locks.

Does anyone know if we were under the cap? Razor thin means maybe not yes/no.

Now, Bo's hair is under the cap at least.

So is that it until January?

Christmas on a Wednesday has given the holidays a strange look. Not sure how it's impacting GMs and Agents. But my Sunday morning skate isn't missing a beat through the holidays. I'm unsure what days to take off work. Kid's off school forever.

So what about Bo. Should we get a double signing in the stocking? It seems the lack of talk about him means he's leaving in July??

Bo's value depends on what he does in 25.
He was worth nothing last year.
All his value is in his offense and he has knee issues.
He's not the kind of guy who will age, walk more and add power.
His unique swing depends on perfect timing and his bat speed can only go down.

There was nothing ludicrous about Simmons' "comparison". It was a piece centered around the idea that AA has had success extending his young talent at team-friendly prices, while Shapiro has done absolutely nothing of the sort and is left paying more than anyone else is willing to offer for FAs. It was a good piece that resonated well with many Jays fans and season ticket holders that are wondering what the heck the long-term plan is here.

There was nothing ludicrous about Simmons' "comparison". It was a piece centered around the idea that AA has had success extending his young talent at team-friendly prices, while Shapiro has done absolutely nothing of the sort and is left paying more than anyone else is willing to offer for FAs."

Everything about the piece was dumb. Extensions are two way streets. Acuna was willing to sign one because he had a signing bonus of $100K. He was willing to give up future value to have money today. Vlad had a $4 million signing bonus and is the son of someone who made tens of millions of dollars. The idea that AA would have signed him is based on pure fantasy. Comparing the Acuna signing to Soto signing which Simmons did is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen someone who professes to have baseball knowledge ever write but if there are contenders, they are probably like 90% other Steve Simmons takes. I get people love outrage hate, but this isn't serious stuff.

Also, I agree the front office has no long term plan and it's a huge problem and part of the reason why Atkins should have been replaced IMO after 2023 (communication issues as well) but AA had no long-term vision either. This was a team that was always going to collapse either in 2016 or 2017. What was the plan? Keep trading every asset to try to put that off for another year? There is nothing he or anyone could have done to avoid that. AA is a good GM (and better now than he was here) but people pretend he was some magician aren't being serious.

come on guys AA would have executed a far more effective tear down and rebuild when the time came. deep down inside you all know it.

Perhaps it is not Shapiro vs AA as people propose but AA vs Atkins only. Honestly, AA as GM and Shapiro as President would be an ideal so long as Shapiro was hands off. It's like having things the way they were before except replacing Beeston with Shapiro. You get the stadium renovation, payroll increases, etc while having AA run the team.

come on guys AA would have executed a far more effective tear down and rebuild when the time. "

No and this is just more of this AA was magic nonsense. Atkins did an amazing job on the rebuild. 2017 deadline started the rebuild and by 2020, Jays were a good young team and by 2021, it looked like they were going to contend for years. Teoscar for nothing, Lourdes for very little, Bo, Manoah, and Kirk and Cavan all up quickly through the system. To have only 3 down years (and not White Sox sort of down) despite almost no assets to trade and a weak system that produced next to no talent for years was as good as can be expected. This front office should have been replaced post 2023 IMO but pretending it didn't do a very good job at that point is just silly. People don't like them so they focus on the negative even if the positive is much stronger.

Kind of hoping, wishful thinking that the Jays sign both Bo & Vlad.

[FanGraphs] Blue Jays RHP Hagen Danner (26) and IF Leo Jimenez (23) have been awarded extra option years.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/new/

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/blue-jays

I’m with you Glevin.

These are angry times and people everywhere seem to prefer focussing on the negative. The response is nostalgia, which never paints an accurate picture of how the past truly was, but our favourite parts of it. It’s human nature.

As another example, I’ve always been surprised more people aren’t upset that they didn’t trade for Zobrist, who would have been a massive upgrade over Goins.

The story that mendocino posted says that Danner and Jimenez have been awarded extra option years. I wonder if that should say the Blue Jays have been awarded extra option years on those players. Is it a good thing for the players?

If they were not awarded an extra option year they would be kept on the major league team, and make the big dollars, or be placed on waivers where another team would pick them up and maybe keep them in the major leagues.

If I was a player would I want an extra option year? If you are major league ready, like Jimenez more than Danner, then the extra option year seems like a negative to me.

Thanks mendocino for this info. Good news to me. Also Gerry makes a good point from the player's POV.

IMO the Jays cannot say "we will not compete in 2025" bad PR. CWS probably also would not sat that but their actions definitely say that. Especially compared to Oakland's actions. Jays added Y Garcia and A Gimenez which proves they want to compete. The Jays may not be finished their off season activities yet. I strongly expect that both Bo & Vlad will be extended. Gimenez, Bo & Vlad are all young right now. Vlad at 3B with the other 2 playing 2B & SS should be a strong IF IMO.

but I do miss the ones he used to do with Drew Fairservice back in the day...

I tried to find if Drew was still active somewhere, but it seemed his last podcast ended in 2022 around the time The Athletic made cuts.

Well, that is good news for the Jays. Now Jimenez doesn't need to be rotting on the bench all season, nor does Danner need to be the 8th man in the pen (or on the IL with phantom injuries). If they earn the job, great, if not then they can be sent down. Opens up more options for the infield.

Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement with space now for whoever fits. Wagner, Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, or a NRI who earns that backup slot (such as Michael Stefanic, a 2B/3B the Jays gave an invite to, safe to say there will be more of those as spring approaches).

I didn't see Danner making the pen unless he had a great spring so this is very good news from an asset hold POV. Right now the pen is Green-Garcia-Swanson-Sandlin-Burr-Little-Pop-lord knows (FG has Tommy Nance listed as a placeholder). The IL has Angel Bastardo and Alek Manoah on it, with the 40 man having Hagen Danner, Nick Robertson (final option), Brandon Eisert, Brett de Geus, Easton Lucas, and Michael Petersen. NRI is Kevin Gowdy. Rotation is set in stone unless they sign someone with Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Francis-Rodriguez with Adam Macko & Jake Bloss the backups in AAA on the 40 man. Eric Lauer the only starter NRI so far, but safe to say Trey Yesavage will get a few innings in spring just so the big staff can see what he has. Tiedemann is injured (shocking I know).

BA Top 50 International Prospects
11. Cristopher Polanco, SS, DR Jan. 3, 2008 L-R 5-11 180 Blue Jays
44. Juan Sanchez, SS, DR Sept. 27, 2007 R-R 6-3 200 Blue Jays

Our depth is very strong IMO.

Yariel Rodriguez was signed Feb 9,2024. I expect signings after Jan 15/24 obviously. Beside Y Rodriguez we usually get a few nonteenage Cubans and sometimes a Brazilian pitcher. Sann Omasaka and Hecheveria both in the FCL this year. Sorry about spelling but I can't find the DSL & FCL rosters.

Reports say Bellinger is headed to the Yankees.

Bellinger goes for Cody Peteet, a 30 year old pitcher. Cubs send $5M to the Yankees. Its basically a salary dump by the Cubs and the Yankees get a centre fielder so Judge can go back to right.

Other rumours are Jesus Luzardo to the Cubs and Teoscar and LAD finalizing a deal.

Post Soto Saga -

NYY - Sign Max Fried, acquire Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams, improve @ high cost
BOS - trade for Garret Crochet and improve pitching, weaken farm, save $$$
TOR - trade for A. Gimenez and improve defense, weaken offense
BAL - sign Japanese pitcher Sugano to 1 year deal, get worse
TB - trade solid SP and get worse, save $$$

What an incredible rebuild with 0 playoff wins.

Heyman says the Jays were in on Bellinger, too, so they struck out again.

But probably for the best... much better ways to spend $55M (you know, like Teoscar).

However, I get why this org wanted him: plays multiple positions, has a reputation for good defense, and isn't a very good hitter. An Atkins dream...

Didn't really want bellinger. I think he'll do well in NY because of the short porch but he's really an above average player with a huge contract. It feels like a teoscar and Burnes both want to sign elsewhere and are waiting for those teams to give better offers. I am happy Jays are exploring trades at least. Still feel like apart from Burnes/Bregman, that's probably the way to go.

"No and this is just more of this AA was magic nonsense. Atkins did an amazing job on the rebuild."

I'm impressed that you not only actually said this with a straight face, but you even condescended while doing it.

well done.

I would have really liked that Bellinger deal for the Jays if he was willing to play all three outfield spots. He's in his prime and does have a high ceiling at the plate. I think he will do well in Yankee Stadium.

They must be pretty certain either Teoscar or Santander take their money, because the options are starting to thin out. I can't bring myself to believe Max Kepler is the answer, especially given his injury history.

The problem the AA people have with the retroactive stuff is they can't ever possibly show how it was possible to do anything they claim AA would have done. I asked repeatedly to show how the Jays could possibly have built a winning team for 2017/2018 and nobody replied because it wasn't possible. It's not logical, it's literally just "AA would have done something magical and everything would have been better". The Jays rebuild was extremely fast and very good under Shapiro/Atkins. Look at how meany teams are terrible for years without becoming a contender.


I get being sick of this front office. I am at this point. I don't get this absurd hagiograohy of a GM from 10 years ago who took us to one playoff appearance in five years. Move on already or go follow the Braves instead. It's so ridiculous and so damn boring.

the problem with the anti-AA people is that we have lengthy careers for both Shapkins and AA now and the comparison isn't a close one.

Bellinger is a high risk/high reward case that the Yankees can take on due to the nightmare defense they had last year. Getting Judge out of CF had to be a top priority (-9 DRS last year in CF, +1 in RF, Varsho was +16 so there is 2 1/2 wins on defense between them, on offense obviously Judge slaughters pretty much anyone outside of Ohtani). Bellinger though has been a net negative on defense according to FG 3 of the past 4 years, -1 DRS last year in CF in just 403 innings. If you are playing a CF at 1B then odds are his defense is not that good. As a Jay he'd have been adequate in LF but for the Yankees I expect more ugly defense in CF. His 109 wRC+ last year is in line with projections for 2025 (110) but he has to be seen as one of the most variable players - last 3 years wRC+ 83-136-109, yikes.

So now what? The Burnes watch is getting annoying - pretty sure he is just using the Jays to up SF's offer. For offense I'm leaning towards Profar or Pederson - both have a lot of warts but each can be very useful at a much lower price than Teoscar or Santander while producing similar value (based on projections). Now, for pitching if you can't get Burnes, then Flaherty or Manaea (QO) both have obvious pluses and minuses but could be useful. Pivetta also worth digging into (great K/9, 140+ IP for 4 straight years, not wow but nice) despite a QO. I'd be 100% shocked if the Jays got that Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki.

The International prospects listed by BA going to the Jays, Cristopher Polanco (BA #11, MLB.com #22), Juan Sanchez (BA #44, MLB.com not top 50) are interesting. Appears the Dodgers aren't tied to anyone in the top 49, top guy is MLB #50 Telion Serrano. The Giants are tied to the #1 MLB.com (#4 BA) non-Japanese player (Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez) so expect teams to be ready to pounce if the Giants get lucky with Sasaki.

The IFA time is a very interesting one - for every Vlad there are dozens of flops at all price levels. Sometimes you get damn lucky and sign a Kirk or Moreno for next to nothing, sometimes you blow $1.4 mil on Eric Pardinho (that year the top bonus went to Wander Franco...seemed good for a long time didn't it?, another high bonus was paid by the Red Sox to Daniel Flores who never played as a pro from what I can tell, must have gotten hurt right away). Lots of other flops too. Must be damn hard as you have to commit to these guys at a very young age (often at 12-14 with promises, no cash until 16). Can't blame any club for saying 'screw it' and blowing their whole wad on Sasaki.

Allegedly the Jays have only a limited amount of money left to fill several positions. Heymans report suggests the Jays were willing to pay a lot of Bellingers salary.

So one of two things are likely true:

- The Jays have more money to spend than what was reported

- Heyman is wrong

Who knows?

As a follow up......Many reporters have said that the Jays front office is desperate. Therefore agents know that if they say the Jays are bidding on a free agent, other front offices will believe them. So expect to see more reports of Jays interested in various free agents but don't believe all of them.

Literally no one is anti-AA. To allege that is a pure strawman, ugly. All Glevin is saying, and I agree, is that Atkins did a great job early on. Since 2022 things have been rocky, and I think we’re all ready for this team to take more risk for upside instead of focussing on perpetually raising the floor.

It's not a fair comparison at all.AA's 2010 rebuild was a complete failure. Very similar to what Detroit has done, actually,
The 2015 team was competitive for 2 months and managed to win the division because the other teams were rebuilding.
Atkins could have sold the farm, the way AA did in 2015 and they would have had a fantastic playoff team.
Instead they chose to remain competitive year after year.

The biggest issue has been the lack of left bats in the lineup.
That was also an issue in 2015.
The lineup has been like a one handed boxer for  a decade now.

AA's teams were not worth a trip to Toronto.

Probably 
Volpe
Chrisholm
Judge
Bellinger
Stanton

Santander isn't a top 25 bat, but Belinger isn't a top 60 bat.
That's a big drop from Soto. The defense isn't fantastic and they are still a Judge injury away from sucking.
Jasson Dominguez could produce big at the bottom of the lineup. Who knows.

MLB has release a 62-page study on pitching injuries.
Contributing factors; chasing velo and spin, exerting max effort  both in-game and off the field.
The league is concerned with what the pitchers do in the winter.
Sweepers and weighted balls were pointed at.
Nothing Bassitt hasn't said many times.

I am not big on AA, but he did what he could with the budget he had.

One thing with AA vs Atkins... the former has continued to learn/grow as a GM. The latter has been fairly stagnant in his development as a GM.

I don't think there is a team president in baseball (ok maybe one) that would hire Atkins over AA now...

Pretty much every poster in this thread is right imho except Ugly regarding AA. AA was a good GM with either flaws or extremely limiting boss/budget or both and to me his tenure was mostly mediocre until he got fired and then dropped the mic on his way out in style. Since then he has worked alongside Andrew Friedman and then inherited a great farm and team in Atlanta and now he is probably a top 3 GM in baseball which Atkins is not. Pretending post Blue Jays AA is the same as the AA we had is silly and only one poster still promotes this on these boards. Its reasonable to compare "Toronto Alex" to Atkins and come to the conclusion that the latter did a better job. I agree the toxicity has erupted in Toronto and is directed squarely at Atkins. I believe it's because of social media in large part as every critic has a voice (and numbers to prove their point now which was never the case before. Bashing this FO sells views and traffic unfortunately and I expect to see and hear more of it.

come now. I'm right. was always right. This board F'd up on AA & needs to let it go.

I'm with uglyone and have been since the time AA left that AA is underappreciated, the degree of "sold the farm" is way overblown, and that AA was a very good GM even if only judged on Toronto time. I think he's shown he's even better now than when he left with a continued strong performance, but he was still very good just when in Toronto.

I also think the current front office is underappreciated, I thought they rated as above average but below AA when they joined and we lost AA. I think they've trended down a little through the tenure especially in recent years, but I still think they are probably above average (but it's much closer to average). Last year was definitely a strike against them, and things aren't looking as good right now, but they've done well (in general) on FA signings, and IMHO deserve another year to hopefully do better/get luckier in performance and health and see what the Jays have.