Thanks for the fresh thread! I vote yes, we will know a lot about the Jays by Wednesday. I tend to think what John N wrote, either they are a strong and contending team with new signees and trades or they cant get those free agents, cant resign Vlad and are unloading this season. Hopefully the latter.

Updated predictions:

Jays sign one of Soto, Fried, Burnes.

Jays sign Santander or Alonso or trade for Josh Naylor.

Jays get a top 2 pick in the upcoming draft.

Jays trade 2 INF (Jiminez or Wagner or Horwitz) for RP.

Jays trade prospects (Roden, Classe) for an important acquisition.

All before end of meetings.

That is a great list of predictions dalimon5. I was just hoping for pick #3 in the draft lottery.

I too predict that there will be signings and small trades because executives from all 30 ML teams will be present. I look forward to what LAD do. Also who did not get Soto and therefore move on to their plan B. Lastly I am looking forward to a big SP signing by Baltimore. Maybe Max Fried.

Prediction:

Jays get 5th pick in lottery
Mets sign Soto
Atkins has press conference to report he has had many "productive" meetings
Jays lose Estrada in the Rule 5
Jays sign infielder with a history of more walks than strikeouts to a minor league deal.
Jays rumoured to be in on just about every player.

Just read that Bob Nightengale wrote that NYY & NYM have offered Soto over $700mil. Number of years have not been mentioned. When Soto signs we will "know" how good his facts are.

Quick correction to my post. I hope for the former (Toronto contends) and not the rebuild.

I can't find it now, but someone said the Jays appear to still be high bidder for Soto - how is beyond me, are they going to $800 million? The money is so insane. Backup choices appear to be #1: Santander, #2: Teoscar with the Jays charging hard on Burnes and Fried as well.

A good question might be what do they do if they do sign Soto? Is there money left to sign others? Would Soto sign if there isn't? What would be the priority then? My guess is pitching-pitching-pitching then, with an eye for a cheap fill-in at 3B (Yoan Moncada maybe). Using kids to fill 2B, DH (rotation with kids going to OF/1B), and maybe 3B too with Clement playing nearly everyday between 2B/3B and filling in at SS when Bo needs rest. Keeping an eye open for deals in late January as well - always someone left standing without a job then who could help. But outside of Burnes & Fried I don't see them going for a FA starting pitcher - just not enough bonus value to make it worth it vs what is here, as I've said many times if a guy isn't projected over 2 WAR he ain't worth $20+ mil a year and in the rotation that goes even stronger.

My dream is signing Soto and by some miracle getting Roki Sasaki to come here (Rogers has many ways to get him cash under the table - being in ads for Rogers based companies or whatever as he can only sign for sub $10 mil from the posting process). I doubt either happens (Mets, Dodgers or Padres are my predictions) but it is fun to dream. More realistic is Santander & Fried which also would be very good. The pen is going to be a crapshoot in 2025, don't see how it can be anything else.

Interesting to hear veteran baseball reporters like Buster Onley and Ken Rosenthal use the word "desperate" to describe the Jays situation - this screams to me that when they lose out on the big fish that the jays are likely to overpay for lesser talented free agents or in trades - The next FO may have a deep hole to climb out.

I get the sense one of two scenarios is happening right now:

1) NYY and NYM are outbidding one another as the final two and Soto wants the NYY (his preferred choice) to match the Mets offer or

2) Toronto has the best offer and Soto wants either NY team to match it


The offer differences can be total dollars or just how the money is paid. Example, he can be holding out on the NYY who want to defer too much of the money vs the Mets

This team is definitely desperate. If they dont get Soto or resign Vlad and Bo or overpay free agents then Toronto just becomes another middling team with a weak farm and free agents who wont come unless extremely overpaid with no other options...thats what this team was under the previous two regimes...so they risk a big step back if they can't get this done.

My biggest worry going into the offseason is and was Jays making moves that hurt themselves long-term. Don't care too much about overpaying a bit for free agent but I could see this front office trading best prospects for a closer. Right now, they look like a 4th /5th place team going to trace prospects and lose its only star for nothing in the offseason in a vain attempt to compete. The idea of finishing out of playoffs,taking on terrible contracts, trading prospects, and then losing Vlad for nothing is repulsive. Would set back organization years. Really hope I'm wrong.

Track record suggests trying to contend has higher chance of success than what you suggest which is... what exactly? What's the alternative to "setting the organization back for years?"

Right now the org is not set back for years, quite the opposite. Does this mean you are very happy with the last place finish so long as they dont overpay for a free agent and leave budgets open in the future for...what exactly?

Show me the team contending that hasnt tanked for a decade which new agreement doesnt even allow for anymore.

Look at two options where they both finish in 5th place:
1. sign Santander/other decent but not great players to massive contract, lose 2nd pick, trade prospects for short-term players, let Vlad and Bo walk for nothing.
2. Sign players they can trade if things go south, don't give up draft pick, don't trade prospects (except where redundant), pick up players by taking on contracts, re-sign or trade Vlad for a couple of top prospects/young major leaguers.

Organization 1 is a mess. Bottom-5 system, untradable contracts no chance to compete for years. Organization 2 isn't going to compete either but they are well on the way to rebuild. Pretty big difference.

The questions are

1. Can they contend? Yes. Why? 74 wins isn't that bad for a team that gave up mid-season. 20 out of the division lead, 12 games out of the playoffs. With a pen that imploded (Romano ineffective then gone, Mayza a nightmare, Swanson sucked hard, Richards wasn't that good, Garcia was great then hurt & traded; for high leverage Green got the most, Cabrera the 2nd most, Pop the 3rd. That says a LOT about what was available).
2. What holes are there? LF/3B/2B/pen if you assume Vlad/Horwitz are 1B/DH. 2B has many options (Wagner, Schneider, Orelvis, Jimenez, Clement), 3B fewer (Barger, Clement, maybe Vlad), LF none that have shown they can hit enough yet (Schneider, Loperfido, Lukes, Clase, Roden, etc.)

If you have a hole on your team LF is in theory the easiest to fill. This winter in free agency you have Soto, Teoscar, Santander, and others. We have a management team that hates to commit long term to anyone - they have a pathological fear of bad long term deals thanks to what they were handed (Tulo & Martin specifically) so even in panic I doubt they go to stupid years, especially now they are being burned by the extra year they gave Springer and were lightly burned by the extra year for Ryu. I honestly can't see them going 5+ for anyone outside of Soto and maybe Burnes or Fried (both established high modern inning pitchers). A 30+ year old OF? 3 or 4 years max - if they go past that for any hitter outside of Soto or Vlad then it is safe to say they are panicking (outside of it being reachable targets to get those extra years - ie: play 120+ games in year 3 get a year 4, etc.)

That is only true if you assume the worst case outcome of organization 1 and the best case outcome for Organization 2.

Example, you can easily be organization 1 and make the playoffs and still contend in following years. If you lose Vlad and Bo and Bassitt you have 70 million to reinvest in new free agents.

Organization 2 can trade Vlad and get back players that never pan out like the Red Sox did with Mookie Betts. You suggest to sign players without giving up a draft pick...players like O'Neil and Jansen? You recommend trading redundant prospects...nice idea but there aren't many good prospects never mind redundant. You recommend taking on contracts to pick up players...look at those players...Nolan Arenado, etc will not help the team be future ready. The only realistic proposal you have for the better organization is to trade Vlad for two top prospects. Recent trades show that is very unlikely to happen because Vlad is expensive and only has 1 year left of control. At best the return would be less than what the Padres received for Juan Soto.

John, seems like you, Nd I and one other poster are in the minority seeing this team easily able to compete and contend in 2025.

It's not worst case scenario with organization 1. Signing a couple of non-elite players and the most likely outcome is missing the playoffs. Best case is like squeezing in. You have this idea that you can just replace talent via free agency and you can't and even if you can replace a portion of it, you are replacing like 27 year old talent with 32 year old talent and replacing cheap talent with overpriced talent. You try to compete like this, you're just going to fall further and further behind. The next season the Jays then just replace Varsho, Kirk, and Gausman in free agency? You want the Jays to be signing 3/4 expensive players a year? That simply isn't feasible. I'm not saying to just tear it down, it makes no sense to do that but if you're not going to compete, you need to not sacrifice the future and find ways to try to be competitive long term.

Teams consistently contending:
Dodgers
Yankees
Astros
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Mets

Teams barely sneaking in:
The Guardians, Royals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rays are the exception not the rule.

If you dont want to spend its hard to be a consistent contender. The Guardians and Royals benefitted from a bad division. So that leaves only 2 teams that have consistently had success without spending a ton and Milwaukee is iffy to call a success.

It's not about not spending, it's about not having enough homegrown talent to win. You can't win via free agency only.

Dick Allen and Dave Parker made HOF. Allen very deserving, Parker very not deserving.

I think a lot of people are still stuck in the payroll parameters era.

There are hints everywhere that Rogers is moving into another level of spending and payroll previously unseen.

"I hope they don't do too much damage to the future by overpaying" operates under the premise that a major teardown happens after a spending/competitve window closes (2001-2005) under Ricciardi, (2009-2012) under A.A. and 17-20 under Shapiro/Atkins. It's how this team has operated since Rogers took over ownership.

For as long as Ed Rogers runs the team (he now has complete control of the sports end of things at that company and access to even more revenue through the purchase of MLSE) I expect the team to spend, and spend big. I don't believe the "unicorn" budget exists, either.

Spending doesn't necessarily mean success, but I think we're in for some exciting years ahead beginning with this one.

I dunno. It's just as likely that that they got the go ahead to spend a little while Bo and Vlad were around with the understanding that they will cut back once they are gone.

The reality is that for all the rumors, they have not brought in any big names in the last two seasons.

If the purse strings were loosened, why no long term deals for Bo and Vlad? Why not take on some bad deals to add to the prospect cupboard? Why not sign Teo when they had a chance? Why cut Romano?

They sure look like they can go a little over CBT and that's it. Even the Ohtani and Soto offers likely had a bunch of deffered money and opt outs.

Dodgers signing Conforto who I really liked. Was amazing on road last year.

The question isn't can the Jays spend or not. It doesn't matter how much you can spend if you don't have homegrown talent. Free agency is absurdly expensive.

You nailed it Glevin. After this season they dont have much coming up. Two decent FA (a good starter to replace Bassitt, and a bat to replace Vlad) might cost $50 M. And that assumes you can sign them.

Bo walks. Varsho and Kirk start to get more pricey. The lineup is mighty thin.

I always find it sad when some think the team cannot contend. Much, much more fun to see how they could and what it would take - to contend for playoffs they need about 10-15 more wins in 2025 than 2024. How to get it? The pen was -2.5 fWAR last year, dead last in the majors after a 4.6 (#14) the year before. Clearly with luck a pen can lose 7.1 wins year over year, with luck that can be regained. Especially since this GM has shown an ability to rebuild a pen in season before and I have faith they can find live arms for 2025 (minor league ones, guys who lost their jobs, etc. with the closer slot open and tons of quality innings available I figure many quality guys on the edge will sign here rather than risk being dumped into AAA by the Dodgers, Yankees, whoever).

For rotation 10.6 for 17th overall. Top 2 returning (2.9 Gausman, 2.2 Bassitt), lost Kikuchi (2.1), Francis gets a full year (1.1 - that insane 2nd half...let's hope it was for real), Rodriguez also (1.0), and Berrios (1.0). All others were 0.4 (Burr, Richards, Manoah, Espino). With luck Manoah will be 100% in the 2nd half for a boost (ala Ryu in '23) and the Jays sign someone high level to get 3+ (Fried or Burnes - if they lose Soto this is where I expect them to go silly, push Rodriguez to the pen). The minors will have Tiedemann, Jake Bloss, and Trey Yesavage (thought to have the ability to shoot through the minors in under a year) plus others.

Outfield has Varsho (3.3), Springer (1.2), and a batch of kids (Lukes, Berroa, Clase, Schneider, Loperfido, Barger, Roden). Safe to say someone will be signed to help out (if Soto then WOW, Sandander or Teoscar = solid. Anyone else, meh). Springer should do better as that was easily his worst ML season to date.

Infield is Vlad (5.5), Wagner (0.6 in 24 games), Bo (0.3), Clement (2.2). Kids galore with Wagner, Jimenez, Schneider, Barger, and who knows who else. Bo obviously should be a LOT better (could add 3 wins easily, 4-5 if he has a good year), but the rest outside of Vlad are pure 'who knows'. Jays were #2 at 1B, #10 at 2B, #17 at 3B, #20 at SS - not bad considering the nightmare Bo, Schneider not being what we dreamed of, and IKF doing well, but not 'WOW' (2.1 fWAR overall here spread around 3B/2B/SS). Finding a solid 3B while figuring out which kid(s) are ready at 2B could go a long way (I expect a Wagner/Jimenez mix at 2B to start with Schneider in the mix there and in LF if not traded).

Catcher was #9 in the majors last year, Kirk was #1 and will be in 2025. Backup for now it Heineman (0.1 last year in 4 games) while Jansen is now a Ray (0.7 in 50 games) and Serven is forgotten (-0.1 in 22 games). No real prospects here so I expect 2 decent AAAA guys to be signed to sit in Buffalo waiting for their chance, fighting to replace Heineman in spring. I'd be surprised if the Jays trade for/sign a better backup at this point.

DH was a write off. #12 with 1.3 fWAR, 0.5 from Horwitz, 0.4 from Vlad. Those 2 will eat most of the DH PA in 2025 I suspect (just over 200 PA between them at DH last year). Turner & Springer ate tons of PA there (278 and 96 PA respectively) producing little (0.4 fWAR total). Plus no Vogelbach going -0.3 there (65 wRC+ over 68 wasted PA).

So clearly more wins can be had with just a bit of luck. One of the kids works out at 2B, another in LF (just get 2 WAR over a season at each and I'd be happy) and some pen work while Bo stays healthy and there are easily 10-20 wins there. More if Kirk can handle full-time duties in 2025 or the Jays get someone solid in FA for LF/DH. It won't take signing Soto, Fried, and 3 A+ relievers to win, but I won't complain if they do that :)

Soto to Mets. Let's move on and not overpay mediocre players. That Conforto contract looks fantastic. Too bad.

$765m / 15yrs

This considerably hurts the Yankees. I'm cool with this.

Boston & NYY have Teo & Santander left. If LAD get Teo then one of them is in trouble.

Don't forget injury, poor performance and the blessing/curse of 1 run games.

This is probably the best case scenario for the Jays in terms of getting Soto out of the AL East, but it also opens up the possibility that the Yankees end up going after some of the players the Jays were looking at as the fallback option. I guess that might be a good thing too if it avoids the Jays signing a contract that they'll instantly regret.

I have no idea who the Jays are going to sign or trade for, so in that sense it will be a fun Winter Meetings, but I also fear a lot of short-term decision making without a high probability of it leading to short-term success. Let's see what Atkins is cooking up.

Bob Nightengale was correct. My apologies to him for my doubts.

I was correct too. And I am a little out of the loop to say the least.

Has anyone wasted more time in the last two years than Ross Atkins? An inspiration to procrastinators everywhere.

And you wonder why Toronto has a small market label...listen to the fans here. "Don't spend too much money," and "you wasted time chasing top free agents."

Can anyone explain this "don't do better," mentality? I'm beginning to wonder if this place is simply littered with old men who come here to take their frustrations out on the front office instead of using their preparation H.

It's time wasted because they were never really coming here. But more than that - it distracted from getting a deal in place for players who MIGHT actually sign here and/or could have helped.
Pretty sure the Jays are going to sign maybe 1 2-3 WAR player (Santander / Teo), and a bunch of bullpen retreads. And then act all surprised when we win "only" 83 games or something.
It's all well and good to be hopeful and "we're going to blow the doors off everyone with 3 more impact signings after we land Soto", but there's also reality to consider..

Time wasted is a ridiculous narrative. You can either go after the big free agents or not. Saying "don't bother trying to land a big free agents" is silly and defeatest. Of course you try. Also, most teams haven't signed anyone yet so the idea that the Jays can't now sign anyone because they were too busy with Soto also doesn't make sense.

Well, I figured it was the Mets pretty much from day 1. Dreamed the Jays could pull it off, same with Ohtani, and in both cases they sound like they were close but no cigar. Last time it was SF who was also in the also-rans, this time the Yankees & Red Sox. Since in both cases the player didn't come to the AL East I'm happy. Well, not happy but at least not apocalyptic. Now plan B gets in motion. Teo or Santander - and I seriously doubted either would sign until Soto did as both knew once he signed the 4 also-rans (Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers) now will have their eyes on those 2 or on trades. Just 6 hitters are projected for 2.5 to 3.9 fWAR for 2025 - Bregman, Torres the only 3's, then Kim, Alonso, Santander, Walker with Teoscar and Profar the only others at 2+. Not a ton of talent, only Torres, Profar, and Kim don't have QO attached. The Jays were tied to Torres, Teoscar, Bregman, Alonso, and Santander at times this winter. I can't see ALonso making any sense (1B/DH only) unless they really believe Vlad can play 3B and/or Horwitz can handle 2B full-time (few believe either is the case). Torres is an interesting one (2B who was a SS as well up to '21 with some innings at SS in '22) - he catches me as a good buy low candidate who might be solid in LF given a shot (relax him so his bat does better is a theory, probably a bad one) but also would provide solid insurance at 2B or force the gang there to other positions (most have played 3B in the minors, or could cover LF as well).

If I was betting though, I'd be guessing on Teoscar to show Vlad how much they want him, they'll bring back one of his gang so he can have even more fun (assuming he wants Teoscar back of course).

My real expectation though is the Jays pull the trigger quickly on Fried or Burnes, whoever will take their money. Probably $150-$200 over 6 or 7 years (going an extra year or two to lock them in). Nathan Eovaldi is a non-QO guy who is projected at 2.8 fWAR for 2025 but isn't as chased after due to it being his age 35 season (vs 30 and 31 for Burnes-Fried respectively).

The big bang signing has happened. Let the speculation go nuts!! And hopefully we get some Jay news outside of 'crap, that guy is gone' soon.

Yeah, enough defeatist talk. If Bo Bichette had his normal season, and the bullpen hadn’t been convicted on a variety of arson charges, they’d have been right in it.

Do I think everything is going to go right this season? No. But it could.

Go Jays.

Go!

As to missing out - so far for guys projected at 2+ fWAR most are starting pitchers (Snell, Kikuchi, Wacha, Severino) with only Soto & Adames (not a good fit) among hitters. O'Neill is projected sub 2, as are all others (next 3 highest projections are all backup catchers at 1.5 or less).

Really, none of those guys are major losses imo. Adames looked nice but he'd have been basically saying "we ain't holding onto Bo for one minute more than we need to", Kikuchi and Snell both are very good but hot and cold (Snell with health, Kikuchi with results). Severino was interesting at half what he got, Wacha has been with 6 teams in 6 years which isn't a good sign, O'Neill would've been nice in a platoon role, but everyday not so much.

IMO if the Jays can't get a 'big bang' - Bregman, Burnes, Fried, and to a lesser degree Santander, Teoscar, or Torres I'd rather they stick to the bargain pool and trades. Bullpen is always a crapshoot and outside of 2024 they seem to do well so while I'd love to see them grab someone of note, it probably is better not to waste the cash and dedicate it to other things.

Oh yeah, and now I'd say Vlad's price is minimum $400-$500 mil to sign pre-free agency. He isn't a fool, he knows that money is there if he has another year like 2021 or 2024. Vlad & Kyle Tucker (179 OPS+ in RF but just 78 G last year, 138 OPS+ lifetime, will be 28 in '25) are the headliners for next winter with Bichette, Schwarber (LF/123 OPS+ lifetime), Arraez (Mr. 200 hits, 323 avg lifetime), Ozuna (DH 154 OPS+ last year, 119 lifetime going into age 34 season), Realmuto (C, 112 OPS+ lifetime, 109 last year so still has it going into age 34 season) and Eugenio Suárez (3B 111 OPS+ lifetime, going into age 33 season) as notables who could climb with a 'wow' year. Realmuto the Jays tried hard for when they signed Springer (it was one or the other iirc, but he picked Philly and Jays gave Springer the extra year to lock him in).

Wow, just read FanGraphs piece on the Soto deal and they say he is in eyeshot of being worth that much. They project him at $719 mil in value over the next 15 years vs the $765 mil he got. 65.8 fWAR over that timeframe. Over 2 in all but the last 2 years of the deal and still over 1 those years. The projections plus what he has done end up with him ending with 2844 hits, 573 HR, and 1852 RBI's - shy of all-time records in all 3, but damn fine numbers none-the-less and a HOF lock without PED's mixed in. That factors in the Mets stadium btw. With his 36.3 fWAR so far, that puts him in the rare category of a 100+ WAR player - 102.1 - wearing a Mets cap in the HOF in 2045 roughly (not hard to imagine if he does this that he'd sign for 1 or 2 more years to get to 600 HR and 3000 hits, and maybe 2000 RBI).

I'd argue the big move would be Burnes but I have a hard time seeing any star coming long-term withou extending Vlad AND Bo, both of whom are likely difficult to sign with the Adames and Soto deals. Bo can probably smell a $30m per year deal over seven or eight seasons if he's a 3WAR guy this season and Vlad is probably looking $45m per season over 10 years, eh?

I can imagine Boston selling the team as Devers, Casa, Rafaela and those four horsemen at AAA to Burnes - we'll be just like those Orioles starting this season and we have money to spend.

I will both laugh and cry if Boston walks away with both Fried and Burnes a few days from now.

As I predicted, Soto signs with the Mets. I thought it would be 15 years at $770M, so I guess I was off by $5 million.

I see more and more baseball writers baffled at what the Jays are doing. It's a team who should be retooling and is just pushing in all the chips to try to sneak into a wildcard spot. What's the long-term vision of this club? Hope to get lucky? With all the money being thrown around, hard to see Vlad not testing the FA waters but we'll hold on to him and lose him next winter. We have a chance at 86 wins, worth sacrificing the future! Just a reminder that Padres trading Soto got essentially King, Cease, and more for him. If you can't sign Vlad, trading him can help you retool quickly.

Of guys left, the values are going to be mostly awful but Fried/Burnes I like best although lots of teams do. Of hitters, meh, maybe Bregman? His contract will age terribly but has a good chance of being a 3-4 WAR player for a few years at least. Teoscar and Santander can hit at least in LF but will both be massively overpaid. I liked Conforto about as much as either and he got a one year deal.

As I previously mentioned I would have been surprised if Cohen 's money and ego did not win out - I think if Soto had been a lifetime Yankee he would have taken the Yankees offer for Legacy reasons as Judge did. I can see the Yankees pivoting to perhaps Cody Bellinger and maybe Alonso (for revenge). What the Jays should do and wouldn't is sell Cohen and the Mets on the idea of combining Vlad & Soto as a dynamic duo for the next decade or more.

It has been reported that Anthony Santander is the Jays plan B if they didn't land Soto - that the contending Orioles didn't even make a strong bid to retain Santander but pivoted to O'Neill worries me as the Orioles internal metrics must not be encouraging - I think whomever signs Santander is going to regret that deal.

So more negative takes to read through. Lets see...

Trade Vlad... check

Don't sign Santander because the Jays want him and the Orioles don't so we must be getting screwed... check

Someone referencing a Juan Soto trade that never happened (Dylan Cease was not traded for Soto get your facts!)... check

Some people bragging they predicted the favourites to land Soto landed Soto as if that means anything. ... check

Oh yeah, the obvious reference to "writers" being baffled by the Blue Jays management on day 1 of the Winter Meetings... check

Vlad and Bo no signing here and being too expensive... check check

Yup, this is your intelligent blue jays baseball site for discussion. Just need to add "thank you" and "sorry" to every defeatist post to make it a bonafide Canadian unique Toronto sports site.

Reports say the Yankees offered $760 million over 16 years. The Dodgers reportedly didn't go above $600M. No word yet on the Jays or the Red Sox.

Vlad and Bo probably "difficult" to sign. If you think management will put up $75m per season for the two and make several other large contracts to compete over the next three to five years, at least I am, all in. However signing the two should come with major expenditure bump as you then don't want to pay for two guys without a good starting rotation and a bunch of above average bats because the farm doesn't look to have much forecastable support for the next three years or so. It looks like a three to five year adventure to build a flow of cheap, young talent if they're not coming from trades... but everyone knows that, right?

It's not a bad outcome.
The Mets were well positioned to take advantage because they have so many free agents which they are replacing on the cheap.
No one could beat the Mets if so they chose and they did.
And it doesn't make them an instant World Series favorite.
It's going to look a lot like the Padres 2 years ago without the deep farm system.
Trout was a better player. Soto is a bad defender and a horrible baserunner.

Look at that contract. A 75M signing bonus. An opt out in 5 years that can be voided by pushing the contract over 800M.
No deferred money. It's about twice the Othani contract when all is said and done.

And it's really the Yankees and their fans which are the injured party here, not the Blue Jays.

Hey dalimon. Your posts have devolved into attacking everyone you don't agree with.

If you don't like the majority take on things either make a counterpoint without calling people negative, or the door is over there.

The Orioles are all about draft picks these days. They prefer to get an extra pick for Santander.
O'Neil and Santander are not comparable. One is a right bat that kills lefties but he always injured. The other is a switch hitter who's played over 150 games in each of the last 3 years.
Also, the Orioles are loaded with outfield prospects. They could debut 3 next year if they wanted to or maybe 2 a year over the next 4 years.

Do they care that they lost they clean up hitter?
I guess not, they can just keep O'Neill on the bench and run platoons.
Alos, it's less an issue when you bat you 2 best guys 1 and 2.

Once again the Blue Jays end up being useful idiots for Boras and his ilk.

Many interesting comments by Bauxites.

Soto signed for $51mil/yr. Both he and Vlad will start 2025 as 26 year olds. 15 years later both will be 40 years old. 9 years later both will be 34. Only rich teams can afford them and if they are on the team you have to play them like Detroit played Miggy. Right now Stanton & Trout are examples of contracts ageing badly. I heard about the Soto signing before going to bed and then posted that Teo and Santander will get good contracts.

The luxury tax is a factor that is very important to some teams but not important to others. So can the Jays afford Vlad? I know Rogers is a rich corporation but I don't know what their thinking is regarding Vlad.

I agree with 85bluejay that S Cohen (NYM) signing Vlad may make him happy. Cohen, Vlad and Soto that is. Again I don't know but being happy is a positive feeling. Also LAD may have competition for best team in the NL with a Vlad/Soto combo in their lineup. Another interesting perspective.

Well, let the off-season begin. It will likely be time to play the waiting game until January.

It'll probably take 5 years (with other teams offering 4). Still, I am coming around on the idea of Bregman (with a two-year opt-out or deferred money, or backloaded, something creative), a top SP (to push a current SP to the pen), and a bunch of lottery tickets for the pen. Let the kids compete for 2B/LF—Horowitz and revolving for DH.

Try to keep the powder dry to keep Vlad and/or Bo. If it all goes sideways again, the FO seemed to do well with lesser pieces to trade last year.

They must get to the WC or make it competitive until late September. There's not enough internal talent coming through for a shot at a quick rebuild (like 2017-2019) to trade a decent shot at competing with Vladdy for what he'd bring back now versus July.

I hope the Yankees sign Santander. It was worth the injury risk to have Judge in CF with Soto, but it's a bad idea for anyone else on the market.

None of the AL East teams look strong now, and the team that wins the off-season is the likely favorite by projection, if not the pundits who will look at the last-place finish last year and dismiss the Jays.

Go Leafs Go.

Now, now, no encouraging others to leave. I love seeing 1001 voices even if I disagree with many. Right now the fans who should be most annoyed are the Yankee ones (I'm betting the Yanks didn't offer as much upfront or without deferrals). Next most angry should be the O's fans - their team has TONS of young talent, but refuses to spend real money so far, if O'Neill is their big signing this winter then the fans should be VERY mad. Last year their staff had a 96 ERA+ and their ace, Burnes, is likely going away, possibly to a division rival (Jays, Yankees both chasing him as are many others). Much like the Jays this decade, they have made the playoffs twice and have the same number of wins as the Jays - 0. Unlike the Jays they are showing zero desire to dig into free agency to fill those last few holes (rotation, pen) and instead of holding onto Santander they signed O'Neill (a clearly lesser player both by results and projections). It could work out, but if the kids slump at all they will miss the playoffs, and without serious effort on the rotation they could implode easily.

A Burnes signing would be much much better than a Santander signing imo.

Santander hit 44 HR for a career high at 29.
Bautista hit 54 HR for a career high at 29.

Santander looks like a lower risk than Bautista. He's a switch hitter. He's hit 28 and 33 HR in the previous years.
Bautista got 5/70M but he only had 4 very good year left in him.
4/80M for Santander could be a deal.

Gausman complained about trying to pitch a shutout every 5 days because there is no offense behind him.
Signing Burnes wouldn't make the clubhouse feel any better.

Bregman is a fine guy to have under team control. I don't see the value as a free agent.
He's a high effort guy which doesn't age that well.
They would have to bat him towards the top which would produce yet another totally unbalanced lineup.
Year after year they put out a lineup that doesn't produce as much as it should--because there are no left bats.
Every other teams loads up on left bats and only chase right bats when they already have 5 or 6 left bats--like the Mets when they wanted Springer to split 3 left outfield bats.
Bregman would be perfect for the Yankees if they get a left bat for first base.

Pitcher Roki Sasaki has been posted.

Santander is nothing remotely close to Bautista though. Bautista (165wrc+) hit like Soto (169wrc+ projected) that year and then up to 180 the next year, not like Santander's career year last year of only 129wrc+ (projected next year for 119wrc+). Santander isn't even near what Springer was when we signed him (i.e 140-150wrc+ with good defense).

Santander is a minor upgrade offensively while being bad defensively. I'd rather let our younger guys fight for that playing time tbh.

(Bregman has question marks too but would be more interesting than Santander imo - probably a similar level bat overall but still with legit plus defense at 3B.)

Burnes otoh would likely be our best SP, and a major upgrade not only to the rotation but a boost to the bullpen to by pushing Yariel/Manoah into relief duty, not to mention by being a good innings eater which would lessen the load on the pen too.

Ducey,

Me highlighting yours and other majority takes on this site is not an attack but a commentary. Also, referencing an imaginary door on the internet for one to leave if they don't follow the defeatist opinion is unintentionally hilarious. Thank you for that, you must not understand modern technology but that's okay I don't discriminate or try to bully as you have been accused of doing (see Soupman's post, December 5th.)

"I was correct too. And I am a little out of the loop to say the least."

You certainly said it best yourself. Please, continue the tough talk it looks great on you in this imaginary room with a door you think people can leave through...

Blake Treinen resigns with LAD.

The Jays need to find the guy who will perform well for them, and it's anybody's guess really. Santander had an abysmal BABIP last year, which a simplistic analysis might see and think he can raise his avg 40 point by chance and keep the rest. But maybe those extra HRs become doubles next year, his BABP normalizes, and he's a bit worse anyway. Does the park suit him and his typical hit directions...the new 2024 config seemed to keep more balls in the park.

The list of free agents is pretty sparse, so it's definitely a bidding war situation. This front office doesn't like "rolling the dice", but they've fiddled around long enough, time to make a few moves that either work out or blow up and get you fired...you've been a MLB GM/whatever title for a long time, you'll be fine.


 The 2025 Jays need superstar Vlad to be there, and several more above average hitters. Bichette is one, unless he's permanently broken for some reason.Can Schneider be fixed and be a utility guy? can Kirk be an all-star again? Horwitz gave me Lyle Overbay vibes - he was almost aggressively fine with the Jays, solidly slightly above average. And that's great, but can't be the 2nd best hitter on the team (unless he gets better, always possible).


It feels like the Jays are always going to be haunted by the ghost of Jose Bautista - a marginal pickup that turned into a superstar for 6 years, makes everyone look great with almost no risk. Then immediately Encarnacion, almost the same thing. That is not going to happen again in the lifetimes of anyone reading this. You can't build a team like that (on purpose). If you build a marginal farm system, you better hit on free agents, or else why is the front office even there?

What was the projection for Bautista after a single year of high performance? Certainly not a 140 OPS+.
Bautista's best years were all wasted because AA wasn't fielding a competitive team, anyway.

Santander had an OPS+ of 134 last year and 135 5 years ago. 120 and 121 in 2022-23.
Why would he decline significantly at 30? Baustita started to tank at 35 and Springer took a dive at 34.
Years 30-34 are fairly low risk.

Teoscar will be 32 next year. It's possible to have great years after 30 but he's going to lose something soon. 

" It will likely be time to play the waiting game until January."

I think the Jays will pivot and try hard to sign someone right away. The trouble is that the other teams that missed out on Soto will, too. Seeing Santander wind up in a Yankee uniform would not surprise me.

Maybe I listen to Blair & Barker too much, but I do think it’s crucial for this team to get some more thump, especially for the cleanup spot. This team needs to hit more home runs next year than it did last year and I don’t think any of us think it’s a good idea for the team to rely on internal improvements for that. I don’t think ugly is wrong in stating that Burns would be the biggest impact player we could get, I just worry that that will lead to a team that played a lot more like the 2023 version than the 2021 version.

I guess it comes down to who you have more confidence in - the Loperfido/Clase/Schneider group, or the Bloss, Manoah, Tiedeman group, and then supplementing on that side.

I would say that I have more confidence in the pitching group being able to deliver impact, however, there’s a significant chance that that group also contributes nothing at all. Whereas the hitters will likely be able to contribute, but it’s less likely that they’re able to contribute at an impact level.

Tough decisions. I lean towards getting a bat because I think the need there is bigger.

It's not just Barker. Gausman and Bassitt clearly want more thump in the lineup.

Santander will be 30. It's not like when they got Morales to replace Encarnacion as both of these guys were 34.
None of Loperfido/Clase/Schneider will hit clean up. If they don't get a bat they will rerun Springer hitting clean up or Bo hitting clean up and Spring leading.
We might see Horwitz hitting clean up, but that won't be the preference.

It isn't more thump the Jays need, it's better offense. The Jays had 9 hitters last year with 300+ PAs and only Vlad and Horwitz were above 115 WRC+. 6 guys were under 100 WRC+. Get guys who hit and the Jays will be much better. Getting empty power for the sake of getting HR's is silly. Like, trade for Lamont Wade (and Doval) and I like him almost as much as Santander.

I agree with Ugly in that Santander is a relatively minor upgrade and would much rather have Burnes/Fried who would become Jays #1 pitchers.

Jordan Romano to the Phillies.

Ken Rosenthal says Romano will get more than his arb estimate of $7.75M on a one year deal.

"I guess it comes down to who you have more confidence in - the Loperfido/Clase/Schneider group, or the Bloss, Manoah, Tiedeman group, and then supplementing on that side."

In this case i actually have the Roden/Lukes/Barger group ahead of the Loperfido/Clase/Schneider group!

And if Bloss/Manoah/Tiedeman are good there is always room for them either in the pen or pushing another starter to the pen.

I out of here.

If Romano signed for like $12M, I'll be pissed because it means he had excess value and the Jays could have traded him. My guess is that it's close to the $8M and he didn't have excess value so a trade would have netted like an A ball reliever or something. I really hope Jays don't try to trade for Williams or Helsey. Those are guys you go get when you have a finished club and just need to shore up the bullpen and would cost a ton in prospect capital. I like Doval and Bednar as bounce-back guys under more team control.

Very interesting podcast from Future Blue Jays with Geoff Pontes about baseball America top Jays prospects. Lots of detail about prospects. Worth listening to. System definitely seems a bit better than many people think.

any names in particular they think are under the radar?

Under the radar (not so far under, Khal Stephen, RJ Schreck and Sean Keys.

Jonny's Lasagna ⚾️
@JLasagna43
Heyman on the Kay show: Mets were at $720 million for a long time and almost stopped at $750 million. Toronto was around $760 million

$8.5m for Romano. another $500k if he hits 60ip.

woulda been cool if the Jays had offered Vladdy a super expensive crazy $300m/10yr deal a few years ago.

ah well.

any names in particular they think are under the radar"

Already mentioned but for me some tidbits I remember (listen to whole thing for more!) .
Nimmala comparison to J. J. Hardy
Yesavage probably doesn't start in AA partly because of cold weather. Dunedin has warm weather and amazing facilities.
Teams love Kasevich. Elite bat to ball skills. Good exit velocities. Like Jacob Wilson with more upside.
Thinks Roden is every day player. Some people think all-star. Is smart guy but also excellent athlete. Above average RF.

If they trade Roden, I will be pissed. I think he's probably ready for majors right now and has a bright future.

I'm not sure it's the best long-term decision to make, but if the Jays are going to throw money around in desperation, then Corbin Burnes is the guy to go after right now. Even if they have to go a bit cheaper (whatever that means in this market) on the offense, I think the trade off would be worth it. Much easier to find cheap position players who could provide surplus value than it is to find pitching.

Ross Atkins said the Blue Jays "absolutely" have interest in a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) December 10, 2024

can we trade swanson for him

if the scouts like Roden as much as the stats do that's pretty encouraging.

steamer projects him as a 110wrc+ bat already. not sure if there's some platoon usage in that projection though.

For long term Burnes and Fried seem the best to chase imo. The hitters are underwhelming in Teoscar & Santander. Although if I'm the Jays I talk with Vlad and ask what it would take to get him to sign - if he says bring back Teoscar then so be it - worst case he'd be a good DH/backup corner OF and the money (estimated at $20 per year for 3 years) would be pennies vs what Vlad's deal would be.

I wouldn't be shocked if Vlad wants others from the DR to be signed. Soto was obviously the best and the Jays appear to have offered $760 mil but the Mets matched and beat that (mixed with a better club). Carlos Santana is also from the DR and is a free agent, going into his age 39 season he'd be fairly cheap 1B/DH who had a 114 wRC+ last year, 105 projected for 2025, switch hitter who pounded LHP last year (161 wRC+), 131 wRC+ in high leverage situations (good sign), hit better with runners on than bases empty (nice change of pace).

Yeah, Teoscar and Santana wouldn't move the needle much but would be sub $30 mil per for both and be decent at DH/LF for 2025 and if that gets Vlad on the dotted line then it would be well worth it. Promise Vlad lots of 3B time (thus Santana & Horwitz both in lineup at 1B/DH) and while the pitchers may not enjoy that, I'm sure we'd see lots of highlight plays for Varsho in CF zooming out to LF to save Teoscar. Hey, gotta get your entertainment where you can right? Then ideally use whatevers left to sign either Burnes or Fried to lock in a strong rotation and we'd be set for 2025 outside of signing whatever live arms they can find for the pen.

Ross Atkins says the #BlueJays were "grateful to be a part of the process" with Juan Soto.

When I asked if that financial flexibility could be used immediately elsewhere, Atkins said:

“Every player, every acquisition is unique. I would say that those two are incredibly unique."

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) December 9, 2024

Translation: "no. lmao. of course not."

Bo Bichette's coming off a terrible season and might be willing to take some risk on a contract extension now if it offers some insurance against another down season. The Jays would benefit from a cheaper extension now which provides insurance to Bo but at a lower rate due to Bo's most recent performance. The team wins if Bo returns to star level output. Bo wants to bet on himself and might be hesitant to lock into a contract with a "low" salary. The team might be happy to dangle some kind of carrot for Bo to chase.

He's locked in at around $17.6m for 2025. Let's say $27m/yr is the floor for the early years of an extension given Adames's recent contract ($182m/7yrs). Bo is a free agent as a 27 yrs old but, if my calculations are correct, will play as a 28 yr old in 2026.

How about a 7yr extension with increasing salaries starting at $28m/yr, hovers around $32m/yr around the 3rd year after which Bo can opt out. If he stays after the 3rd year (30 yrs old) then the salary jumps to something like $35m/yr if he posted an ave of 4 WAR or better in the first 3 yrs of the contract, stays at $32m/yr if he averages between 2.5-4 WAR per year over the first three years or drops to $20m/yr if he averages between 0-2 WAR.

WAR is arbitrary for this exercise as is the assumption of good health. Surely people are more creative than I am so try to tweak this, add to it or rubbish it and come up with a different structure for us to ponder..

Let's throw some ideas at the wall here and see what we can create.

Bo can't wait to leave. Based on previous reports, he'd probably take less to play with a different club.

Perhaps so but if bombs out again this season, he might be playing for another club at $2m-$5m at the age of 28. There's always a chance that he falls apart like Tim Anderson. Under an extension with a player opt out,, he can leave for greener pastures at 31 yrs old if he plays like an all-star and the Jays still win as they get him for and additional 3 yrs.

Ross Atkins what a successful winter meetings would look like for #BlueJays:

"we just keep doing what we're doing, and focus on getting the team better. We have to stay agile, but certainly not to overreact."

Astros are listening to possible trades for Tucker and Valdez who are both free agents after this season. Why? Because they aren't stupid and want to try to win every year.

Ben Nicholson Smith says the Jays highest offer for Soto was a little under $700M.

I don't think management should be faulted for missing out on Soto. It is always a difficult job trying to land the top player in the market. The Jays were one of the top 5-6 teams in the hunt (Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Jays were the teams I saw the most). They made a serious offer by all accounts. If you asked people last year they likely would have said an offer like the Jays would be enough to land him. Even if you take the most cynical view that Soto was just using the Jays to bid up the contract from other teams, getting other teams to spend more on a player is a small win for the Jays. Being a serious team trying to get better and willing to spend should make the team more attractive to all (both current players and future ones), and is certainly much better than the Oakland or Tampa ownerships with respect to spending money.

At the end of the day, this isn't the try league, this is the get it done league, so the management will be judged by results. If the Jays are awful the next few years then management will rightly be judged poorly, but I still think their track record is decent all things considered despite the disasters last year.

That 300+ PA/115 wRC+ is a very bad take on the team.
Varsho, Kirk and Clement were fine. Varsho was worth 5 WAR, Clement 3.4, Kirk 2.
Springer, Schneider, Turner and Bichette were bad, but Schneider has to hit HR to be good. Bichette hit only 4 and Turner 6.

The 2015 team was good because of the power. Donaldson, Bautista, EE.

The Yankees cruised through the AL championship because of Soto, Judge and Stanton hitting HR while the other teams didn't have power threats.
The Jays haven't won a playoff game since forever because it's really hard to get 3 hits in the same inning in the playoffs.
The 2021 team had power and was built for the playoffs but they didn't fix the pen and missed by one game.

A team that hits a lot of HR can get away with being loaded with right bats but one that doesn't has a huge disadvantage.
Walks and singles can lead to double play and it's easier to walk guys intentionally if they are all right bats.

Santander had a 129 wRC+ last year. How is that empty power?

Atkins does not tell anyone anything. This is quite obvious. So I don't expect it.

Jacob had a very nice idea/plan IMO. Michael's post was very fair to the Jay's FO. They tried hard and failed along with the other teams that failed on Soto and others.

With Vlad they have an advantage so success should favor them. But we will never know the details.

The Mets really need Vlad to hit behind Soto.

Power is part of being a good hitter but not all of it. The 2015 jays were great because they had 3 of the top 10 wrc+ hitters in baseball, not just good power hitters. They basically had 3 vladdies.

Santander's career year last year didn't get him into the top 25 last year and his expected production would put him on the edge of maybe top 40 or so.

Bo can't wait to leave. Based on previous reports, he'd probably take less to play with a different club.

That'd be a surprise to Bichette, I think:

“When I had time to think about what I want, basically, my ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization.”

Ken Rosenthal says the Jays are putting together a massive offer for Corbin Burnes.

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith 5m Joel Wolfe, the agent for Roki Sasaki, says Sasaki “has paid attention to how teams have done as far as overall success both this year and in years past. He does watch a lot of major-league baseball.” Sasaki asks questions about weather, comfortability and pitching development.

* 1. recent success * 2. weather so much for that idea.

I had no idea the weather was so bad inside the Dome.

Draft lottery this evening. Hope the Jays do well.

Prospects change a lot over the course of the year but right now, looks like 2 great hitters at top, then a couple of elite pitchers and then a few others. Would love a top-5 pick.

Would love a shot at Ethan Holliday & the Jays have never had the #1 pick - it's about time.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2025/draft/

ba 1./mlb 2. Jace LaViolette RF COLL
MLB Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 65 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

ba 2./mlb 1. Ethan Holliday SS HS probable move to third
MLB Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

ba 3./mlb 4. Tyler Bremner RHP COLL
MLB Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 65 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60

ba 4./mlb 3. Jamie Arnold LHP COLL
MLB Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60

ba 5./mlb 5. Seth Hernandez RHP HS
MLB Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 60

Burnes would make a lot of sense. 4 years of 160+ IP, 190+ the past 3. xERA in the low 3's the past 3 years so unlikely to be any bad surprises. K% has gone down each year though since 2020 36.7-35.6-30.5-25.5-23.1 so that is a 'uh oh'. Still, entering his age 30 season means you should be OK with a 5 year deal. Might take up to 7 though which makes me nervous. Thus why I've been more interested in Fried (1 year older and expected to go for a shorter contract).

Just for fun, looking at MLBTR here are a few guys listed as 'Jays interested in'...

• Hitters: Teoscar Heranandez, Santander, Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, Yoan Moncada, and formerly Adames & Soto
• Relievers (deep breath): Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald, and Jonathan Loaisiga. With extra speculation on Josh Naylor

As the joke goes - it is a shorter list of who the Jays aren't looking at than who they are.

One of Burnes or Fried would be enough for me to call the offseason a success tbh, even though or maybe even because they will both be techinically "overpaid". Because we should be willing to overpay, especially in years.

And then if they add one legit good RP and couple of interesting cheapo RP adds then i'd consider the offseason very successful.

Offensively i'd like to give our internal hitters more of a shot this year. If it's not enough then if we're decent then look for a hitter at the deadline.

Top 25 out of 30 teams isn't bad.
Last year, Santander was better than everybody on the Jays except Guerrero, better than anybody left on the Yankees other than Judge.
He was the second best hitter in Baltimore and the Rays had nobody better than him.

It's definitively good enough to make a difference.
A starting pitcher will be lucky to start 30 games and even Burnes isn't likely to win 20 with the Jays lineup.

Welcome back, Yimi.

Always nice when a guy is happy to return.

"One of Burnes or Fried would be enough for me to call the offseason a success tbh, even though or maybe even because they will both be techinically "overpaid". Because we should be willing to overpay, especially in years."

I agree and I'm fine overpaying for elite players because you just can't find that value elsewhere. I wouldn't want to overpay for say, Santander, because I think getting a 2.5 WAR OF on a long-term contract is pretty meh. Santander since 2021 has the same WAR as Gurriel, Canha, Brandon Marsh...that's just not someone I want to give a massive deal to. (By contrast, Burnes and Fried are #2 and #10 in pitcher WAR in same time frame).

For me, sign Burnes/Fried, sign Minter or Yates or someone, trade for another reliever (Bednar?) and then sign one hitter that can help. Austin Hays for example, kills lefties. Max Kepler was hurt last year but great year before, etc...

Also, the team should be exploring trades. Cleveland is looking to trade Josh Naylor. He's a free agent after the year and isn't fantastic but fits a Jays need for LH power so maybe he wouldn't be too expensive (or can be packaged with one of their amazing relievers for more substantial package).

Happy to have Yimi back and contract seems good. Bullpen is now Green, Yimi, Swanson as middle to late inning guys. Sign a starter and move Rodriguez there too and then you need to get a closer-type. Then, bullpen should be workable.
9th-closer
7/8-Green/Yimi
6/7-Swanson/Rodriguez

Scottt - if we could count on Santander to match that career year going forward then maybe i could squint and like the add but even then you're getting a non-elite bat with no defensive value. And i don't thinm we can expect him to match that career year going forward.

I expect the Yankees to push harder on Max Fried to blunt some of the PR hit from Soto to the Mets.

Interesting having reports with NYY, Red Sox, and Jays as the final 3 for Fried with a decision by Thursday. I'm sure all 3 are also courting Burnes right now. Interesting by their absence from any rumors are the O's - they desperately need starting pitching (they were 8th last year in fWAR for starters with 12.8 but Burnes was 3.7 of that with no one else over 2.0 - remove Burnes and they are below the White Sox with just 6 teams worse. Jays were 17th with 10.6, Yankees 13th 11.7, Red Sox 11th 12.0. Fried was 3.4, projected about the same (3.2) for 2025.

Garcia is a solid mid-pen addition imo - can cover closer/setup/or even 2 innings as needed. Him, Green, Swanson are a decent 3 to have if the Jays could add a lock down closer and another solid LH arm I'd be OK with the pen (add in Little, Pop, whoever to fill in the last 3 slots).

IMO the offseason is a success with one of Fried or Burnes, a hitter, and 1 more quality pen addition. Bigger success is 2 more quality pen guys plus a top hitter (trade or FA) to go with one of those 2 starters.

This FO needs a SP, minimum 2 more RP and a clean up hitter or it's a bust for me.

Getting a top 2 pick might be a mulligan scenario for them.

Jays get the eighth pick, down from their number five ranking.

heh

Just seems fitting with the luck of this franchise in last couple of years.

Fried 8/$218 to Yankees.

Fried $27.25 x 8 to NYY

​$30 x 8 for Burnes is fine by me

Fried to the Yankees on an 8 year deal.

Seattle and St Louis saw the biggest jumps in their draft picks.

Washington got he number 1 pick (ranked fourth).

Bad juju every since that stupid pop up.

Burnes probably gets $250M, maybe more.

Jays just traded for 2B Gimenez.

Gimenez is a very good player. And we have lots of expendable assets.

awful year last year but the projections still like him as an above average hitter with plus plus defense. 3+ war. 26yrs old.

6yrs x $15.1 aav left on his deal. more expensive than i thought.

Very weird player to trade for. He's a SS playing 2B so can see him long-term at SS. He has a long term contract. He's good but they need hitting and he's not that.

Hope Cleveland is paying down some of that contract - wonder if the Jays move him back to ss if Bo is moved.

If the Jays were overloaded at any position it was 2B. So they traded for another one. We will see if they sent a 2B back.

I know he can also play short.

Very weird player to trade for.

Maybe, maybe not.  Great defender and poor hitter (outside 2022).  That sounds about right for this front office.  They did buy low so maybe he'll be better but his career OPS is .715.

Oh man I really want to like this trade but another INF that can't play 3B? This is another Varsho "amazing WAR value and defense" player with offensive potential...

I think this sets up the Jays to trade Bichette. If not now, at least at the trade deadline.

He's a good 2B/SS but very expensive contract. Really odd. Maybe Jays getting back a reliever or Naylor as well? We'll see soon enough.

That career ops is above league average btw.

He's a good player but another defensive first player. This team needs offense. This tells me they didn't want to spend money on Torres and likely have a deal ready for SP and power bat.

What are they going to do with Horwitz, Barger, Clement, Jiminez, Wagner, Schneider and Martinez??? Will they be traded like Santiago Espinal for very little?

Horwitz is part of the trade, apparently.

Horwitz and Sandlin.

I don't know who Sandlin is.

ah Rosenthal messed up - Sandlin is coming from CLE to us.

Middling RP.

Sandlin is a Guardians reliever.

Really feels like first domino to fall because right now it's "we have too many middle infielders and can't hit enough so we traded our second best hitter last year for a glove-first middle infielder".

this also opens up the DH spot for at bats for guys like Wagner (who projects similarly as Horwitz offensively, and not so good defensively at 2B).

I think this is leading to a Santander or Pederson signing. The DH spot is now open and they need a thumper there. The team is either not bullish on the internal 2B options, or Gimenez is the future SS on this team once Bichette leaves and will just play 2B in 2025. Maybe both of those things.

The Jays have too many 1B, marginal 2B types to trading one is OK. Sandlin is a decent reliever so there has to be more (much more) going to Cleveland.

CLE probably gets to keep Josh Naylor now.

I assumed Horwitz will replace Naylor at first.

Let's see what other moves come. Sandlin is like perfect example of the FO's type of pitcher. Doesn't throw hard, amazing slider cost controlled. He has options so he seems like a decent depth reliever. I think an important point to remember is that Gimenez is younger than Horwitz. He isn't even 27 yet. 2022 was a fluke but he was a 3.8 WAR player in 2023. That's not an unreasonable expectation and that's very valuable.

"I assumed Horwitz will replace Naylor at first"

Shoot that actually makes a ton of sense.

Jays, badly in need of offence, manage to get worse at offence... still feel like Jimenez is probably in the deal, maybe Danner.

Jays now have Bo, Gimenez, Wagner, Jimenez, Kasevich, Schneider, and Clement (and more) at SS or 2B. I can't imagine the Jays not trading from that group.

sounds like that's the whole deal. no word on any cash considerations though.

You have to see what you could get for Bo now, right?

might end up being pretty clever trading a 27yr old with half a season of good offense with little D value for a younger player whose already received MVP votes.

maybe wait until his stock isn't at an all time low?

For sure. This definitely smacks of the team adding some thump at 3B, LF and DH. For what it's worth, Cleveland fans appear livid over trading a core piece of a very.good team.

Horwitz might end up a decent major league hitter, but he simply had no role on this team moving forward. As Wilner just pointed out, this opens up DH for another bat or just some flexibility to rest players.

Couple that with signing a solid reliever in Garcia, not a bad day.

"Gimenez doesn't hit the ball hard. He chases out of the zone and doesn't draw walks. His OPS dropped more than 100 points from 2022-2023 and another near 80 points from 23-34. Power zapped. OPS irrelevant. No slug. Great defensively. Super."

Ballcap Sports

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
8s
Full trade: Spencer Horwitz and minor league OF Nick Mitchell for Andres Gimenez and Nick Sandlin. No cash considerations.

No guarantee his stock is at an all time low.. I'm not saying that you just trade him, but sure seems worth figuring out what San Diego would offer for him

Full trade is Gimenez and Sandlin for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell, a 2024 draftee.

Seems like a salary dump by Cleveland and Gimenez did not have much value on the market. I am surprised.

Although I like Horwitz, his lack of a defensive position limited his upside with the Jays.

Baseball America says of Gimenez:

Giménez is an upgrade at the position, as seven different players saw time at second base for the Blue Jays last season. He has strong contact skills, but an aggressive, free-swinging approach has limited his offensive production over the past two seasons.

What's odd to me here is that Cleveland almost certainly has to trade Naylor and he's a great fit for the Jays. You'd think something would have worked out there.

I expect we're going to see more dominoes fall here but here's a possible lineup with steamer projections:

* 1. SS Bichette (27): 641pa, 117wrc+, 3.6war, 3.7war/650
* 2. DH Wagner (26): 345pa, 118wrc+, 1.9war, 3.6war/650
* 3. 1B Guerrero (26): 663pa, 154wrc+, 5.0war, 4.9war/650
* 4. C Kirk (26): 425pa, 120wrc+, 3.9war, 6.0war/650
* 5. RF Springer (35): 660pa, 109wrc+, 1.9war, 1.9war/650
* 6. 2B Gimenez (26): 608pa, 104wrc+, 3.1war, 3.3war/650
* 7. LF Schneider (26): 375pa, 103wrc+, 1.2war, 2.1war/650
* 8. 3B Clement (29): 345pa, 102wrc+, 1.5war, 2.8war/650
* 9. CF Varsho (28): 568pa, 100wrc+, 2.8war, 3.2war/650

* X. OF Roden (25): 118pa, 110wrc+, 0.4war, 2.2war/650
* X. OF Lukes (30): 210pa, 105wrc+, 0.6war, 1.9war/650
* X. IF Jimenez (24): 83pa, 99wrc+, 0.4war, 3.1war/650
* X. C Heineman (34): 184pa, 76wrc+, 0.7war, 2.5war/650

* X. UT Barger (25): 176pa, 103wrc+, 0.6war, 2.2war/650
* X. OF Clase (23): 135pa, 85wrc+, 0.1war, 0.5war/650
* X. IF Orelvis (23): 222pa, 96wrc+, 0.6war, 1.8war/650
* X. C Clarke (27): 25pa, 86wrc+, 0.1war, 2.6war/650

* X. OF Loperfido (26): 309pa, 84wrc+, 0.1war, 0.2war/650
* X. OF Berroa (26): 13pa, 81wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Stefanic (29): 13pa, 109wrc+, 0.1war, 5.0war/650
* X. C Raposo (27): 1pa, 71wrc+, 0.1war, 0.1war/650

I'm sad to see Horwitz go, as he was one of the few bright spots last year.

However, this is a good deal. Even if Gimenez never hits as well as he did in 2022 again, he still adds a ton of value on defence. And he's still younger than Horwitz.

Considering there was speculation on here about Jimenez or who else may be the much more going to the Guardians, having the other piece be Nick Mitchell was a nice surprise.

I like Gimenez but Cleveland has to be very happy being able to get out of the contract - 2027-29, $23.5M for a defensive specialist is expensive but I guess Shapiro/Atkins likely will not have to worry about that - This only makes some sense to me if the Jays move Bo this offseason/trade deadline.

I love this trade. Gimenez has an average of 5.5War over the last three seasons. That's a good/great player. Also, he's 26. I don't get the complaints.

It's absolutely what the Jays should be doing. It's getting a salary dump. I mean they got a 3-4 win player and a decent middle reliever. That being said, trading an offensive player for another defensive one on its own makes no sense. I think after all is said in done, this trade will make a lot more sense.

Yeah pretty much we all agree on the upside of this trade and are waiting for the offense to be improved now.

Wow.

So we traded a guy who a year ago was seen as AAAA fodder, who had a good half season here (1.2 bWAR in 97 games) but nothing 'wow', plus a 4th rounder from 2024 for a guy who won the last 3 gold gloves at 2B and is entering his age 26 season and is signed through age 30 for $96.9 mil, with an option for his age 31 season at a net cost of $20.5 mil ($23 less $2.5 mil buyout which is factored into the $96.9). Under $20 mil a year for the next 5 years (prime ones) for a guy with 3 gold gloves, 101 OPS+ lifetime, peak of 142, 18.6 bWAR over 5 years, remove his best one and it is 2.8 bWAR per year (includes 2 years of sub 70 games each - remove those 2 and it is 4.7 per year). fWAR is 14.6 over 5 years, past 2 6.6 or 3.3 per year.

Yeah, I see this as a massive blowout win for the Jays at the Chapman/Donaldson level but with much better cost control. No wonder Cleveland's fans are furious. His peak was 6.1 fWAR which is damn fine (Chapman's peak was 6.4 fWAR, Donaldson 7.2 pre-Jays for reference, both were older than this guy at the time of the trades and neither had this many years of control left either).

Of course, we also get a reliever (I suspect the Jays will try to get one tossed into every trade this winter) in Nick Sandlin, entering his age 28 season he had -0.1 bWAR last year (8-0 record - go figure) 10.3 K/9 lifetime vs 4.2 BB/9. Less than an inning per game lifetime. fWAR of -0.7 last year, but as Glevin points out he has options still (all 3 actually) so he can be demoted, and won't be a free agent until after 2027 at the earliest.

FYI: I did like Horwitz, and hope he does well in Cleveland. But realistically he was unlikely to ever be much and with his limits on defense (1B really, his 2B time was desperation which the '24 Jays were buried in).

Well, Nathan Eovaldi is gone - Rangers re-signed him for 3 years $75 mil. MLBTR estimated 2/$44 mil so he is a big winner. FG had him at 3/$60 which was closer.

Doubling down on an excellent aspect of the team makes some sense, and hopefully, whatever adjustments they plan to make to Gimenez at the plate will make the deal look good.

Missing out on Fried is a drag, but the defense has to be a draw for the remaining FA pitchers.

Bregman provides. Decent D and is an upgrade on offense over Clement.
Depending on the terms he's seeking, Bregman would help. Teo returning and would not block Loperfido or Schneider if they get hot by moving to DH.

Those adds in a weaker Al East, and a WC seems well within reach.

That was a good move with the RP throw in whom Walker could unlock another gear.

Also, the willingness to take on the money, shows a willingness to spend and provides a good 2026 hedge on Bo (if he leaves).

The process seems sound.

Yankees spending so much on rotation and their lineup is so weak. They had a bunch of holes even with Soto coming back.

Good posts and points.

Keith Law on the trade:

The bad news is that it didn’t take — Giménez slugged just .340 last year, and his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and Barrel rate all ranked in the bottom 10 percent of MLB hitters. He’s given all of his 2022 gains back, and that season’s 37.8 percent hard-hit rate and 87.8 mph average exit velocity look like flukes in the context of his overall career. He’s still an outstanding defender, coming in at 14 runs above average in 2023 and 2024, but the bat is well below average. He’s under contract through 2029, and that’s a long time to lock up a singles hitter.

The Blue Jays are one of the only teams that could make an argument for paying retail for Giménez, as second base was a giant vortex of awful for them last year, to the point that they were playing first baseman Spencer Horwitz out of position there in September. (It didn’t go well.) Toronto also picked up right-handed reliever Nick Sandlin, a very effective guy against hitters on both sides of the plate despite a lower arm slot thanks to a plus splitter. He had a down year in 2024, giving up more power to right-handers than usual, and seems like a solid buy-low acquisition.

Even if Giménez does nothing more than repeat 2024, the trade probably makes the Jays four wins better, maybe more if you consider the incumbent options for second base in Toronto, none of which was likely to be more than replacement level. And maybe they’re setting up a Bichette trade where they’d move Giménez to the vacated shortstop spot.

Much like in the same way we have too many infielders, after signing Fried I wonder if the Yankees now have a couple of excess starting pitchers they look to trade for the big bat they need (the cheap guys like Cortes, Schmidt or Gil). 

No question, this front office LOVES defense. Best CF in the game, maybe the best 2B now as well. Mix in former CF in RF and a GG winner at 1B (cough cough) and a near GG winner at 3B (3rd place for Clement). So what to do about offense? I'm suspecting the Jays are hunting for the right trade right now. Oakland needs to up their payroll to avoid a player union grievance which could cost them a ton of revenue sharing $$$ so I suspect they'll do a long term deal with Brent Rooker to get there (sigh - he would be nice at DH). We know José Ramírez ain't going anywhere (he demanded a no-trade clause as he wants to be a one team player). Seiya Suzuki is looking more and more tempting as a trade target - poor defense, solid offense, but Cubs want to clear him out it seems ($19 mil for each of next 2 years and Cubs are mega rich) which seems bizarre to me. Jays could afford the poor defense on an OF corner easily. The Cubs also want to clear out Cody Bellinger (LH bat, can play CF when Varsho needs a day off, has been 4+ bWAR 3 times in his career) but owed up to $32.5 for 2025 ($27.5 plus $5 mil buyout) with a $25 mil player option for '26.

In the end I'm glad we finally got a trade and hopefully more stuff is coming. Burnes has to be their #1 FA target right now but $225 mil over 8 has to be the starting point now (ugh), and I'm thinking $250/8 could happen after that Fried deal and with the Jays, Red Sox, and lord knows who else chasing him.

The Yankees lineup may be weak but they scored the 3rd most runs last year and 144 more runs than the Jays who just spent significant Money on defence - I also expect the Yankees to add to their offence including Cody Bellinger who should like the short right field.

This move smells like previous ones from this regime, where it might look good on paper (debatable) but it can only be judged in full context. This team needs offense, not defense, and they just traded for a guy who has hit .252/.306/.368 over the last two seasons and was only marginally better than Ernie Clement last year. If Gimenez were a FA, would you be excited about the Jays giving him a 5/94MM deal while people are fretting about the limited dollars available to spend this offseason? If they go out and get two bats for the middle of the order this deal will look a lot better, but it's tough to get excited about spending 17.5MM on Gimenez and Garcia before addressing the massive holes in the lineup and rotation. Hopefully it just means there are a few bigger moves to come.

Exactly right 92-93. Just like last offseason’s moves. In a vacuum you could kind of like signing KK or Turner, except that the team needed neither a premium defender in CF nor a RH DH that was having trouble hitting RHP. A premium defender at 2B was near the last thing this team needs. I’m not sure he’s even a better player than Clement or Jimenez.

Andrés Giménez is 26. He owns a career 103 wRC+, platinum glove, and a 80/14 SB/CS ratio the last three years. He'd crush 5y/$96m on the open market."

From Travis Sawchik. The trade is odd in a vacuum but let's not pretend that Jimenez is some fungible backup infielder.

That'd be a surprise to Bichette, I think:

That depends on if it's a true "about-face", or just some PR-speak to try to get a big contract out of the Jays or not get harassed on social media.

Previous years, he was QUITE angry with the Jays for arbitration deals and took a 3-year deal he didn't like to avoid doing more of it, and seemed to have a chip on his shoulder for quite some time.

Then again, maybe *THAT* was the mistaken interpretation of his previous actions, and that quote you linked is the real deal. shrug.

IIRC, most people agreed with the "Bo wants out (badly)" interpretation, at least at some point in the past 1-2 years. But I am not a mind reader, so I could easily be wrong on all my claims.

I agree that if the Jays add two bats, preferably with power, then it makes the Gimenez deal a lot more sensible, but I have no idea where the money is going to come from to achieve that, especially if they are heavily involved in the Burnes sweepstakes like it is being speculated. I would think that there will be trades where salary is being moved around (Bassitt, Springer, Green).

Clement is entering his age 29 season and last year was his first with over 70 games played in it, his only one worth more than 1.0 bWAR. Gimenez, on the other hand, is entering his age 26 season and has been worth 4+ bWAR each of the past 3 years, with a peak of 7.4 in '22 with an excellent 99-15 SB-CS ratio. There is really no comparison between the 2.

i think this makes sense regardless of whether we add more bats or not.

we have lots of youngish interesting bats that profile similarly as horwitz imo. not as many that have the high end defense to go along with that offensive upside like Gimenez does tho.

Horwitz has been flipped to PIT.

SK in NJ - right now I'm guessing the Jays will do a deal for someone who might be a poor contract in '27/28 but decent to very good in 25/26 for Springer with a team that is desperate to clear that deal. Could SD be worried about Fernando Tatis Jr.? I seriously doubt it but he did slump to a 118 OPS+ since his year off for PED's/injuries vs the 160 OPS+ he had before that and is owed $313.1 million over the next 10 years. He was a SS when he signed the deal and is now a RF. It'd be a hell of a risk for both sides, especially SD imo but I could see them trading him for Springer plus prospects. For a straight up salary dump you'd need to go with Manny Machado and his $315.6 mil left over 9 years as he is entering his age 32 season thus a lot of that will be wasted cash but he is still a 3 WAR guy at 3B and cracked 6 just 3 seasons ago so who knows?

The Padres TV deal was one of the killed ones - from $78.9 mil to $17 mil a year. (reported in April of '24) So they might be desperate to cut payroll. They slashed $60 mil from '23 to '24 but that might not be enough long term as '25 is projected to go up $11 mil right now. Machado's raw dollars jump in '26 by $8 mil, '27 by another $14 mil - safe to say they are desperate to get rid of that contract. Tatis doesn't jump until '27 by $5 mil, '29 by another $11 mil so they shouldn't be as desperate there. They have been a team I've been watching the past couple of years expecting them to deal one of those 2 giant contracts due to a cash crunch. They haven't yet though. If they did they'd want to deal them as far away physically as possible as to minimize the fan fallout. Right now would be the right time as the Jays desperately want more offense and those 2 could provide it where needed (3B/OF) but the cash risk is sky high, but less than half the Soto cash risk. Hey, it is hard to find possible deals for impact players!

Nice deal for Cleveland there - I sure would've traded Horwitz for Luis Ortiz in a minute. Ortiz was a swing man last year (15 starts, 22 relief) with a 126 ERA+ over 135 2/3 IP. Low K numbers is a concern (6.9 lifetime K/9) but I'd say that works for Cleveland. For the Jays I think getting Giménez was better. Still, interesting all around.

That Sawchik quote is all about sample sizes. I suspect there isn’t a line up to pay that 5/99 for a guy with a 88 wRC+ in the past 2 years. It all hinges on what you think of his 2022 year.

Boston has missed out on all their prospective free agent targets so far - can they afford to come up short on Corbin Burnes?

Also, the Angels are looking pretty smart on their early signing of Kikuchi.

It's not small sample sizes. Even if you throw out 2022 completely, Gimenez is average 3.3 FWAR over the last two seasons. That's someone who is going to get paid.

I feel bad for the next GM of the Blue Jays in 2-3 years that will have to try and offload a singles hitter with a .290 OBP and .350 OPS who's making $23M+... and next year between Clement, Bo and Gimenez... will they manage even 50 walks combined?

Yeesh... that's a deal that's gonna age worse than Springer.

Agreed Glevin - that 3.3 fWAR is about as poor as one should expect from Gimenez and that was with poor offense. Imagine if he gets back just some of the bat he showed in '22, then he is a 4-5 fWAR guy, all the way back and we're talking a 6 - Soto/peak Vlad level value. And FG is generally undervaluing defense vs other sites (such as BR). 1 less run allowed is equal to 1 more run scored, in fact statistically it is even better. It doesn't feel that way, but it is true. Yeah, it didn't help the Jays last year but with an imploded bullpen and Bo forgetting how to hit when healthy it wasn't a shocker the year went poorly.

Now, yes, I'd like to see a big thumper added. Teoscar or Santander would fit that bill but other big guns are going for them too. Like I said above, the Jays need to find another deal where a team has an expensive player that doesn't fit them anymore (hot prospect coming up, guy slumped last year and team is down on him, budget crunch, whatever). It won't be easy, but I'm sure that guy is out there somewhere. Be it Rooker in Sacramento, one of the big contracts in SD, Josh Naylor in Cleveland, whoever. If anyone has other trade targets please list them and why. It is a fun debate to have.

Your interpretation Marc seems awfully pessimistic. Gimenez is 26 and his contract ends while he's 31. Players often get better between 26-29 and don't decline much 29-31. They rarely get better after mid-thirties which is when Springer declined.

As usually we’re on the same page.

I don’t mind the defence first approach to baseball. Worked for the only team in the last 20 years to win on a below average payroll that didn’t do a strategic rebuild…but can we get rid of this group before they do even more damage?

Just looked at Bluebird Banter and they are near apocalyptic about the deal. Sheesh. The Jays do a deal that imo is a massive win - trading a guy who is unlikely to ever be more than Overbay lite for a 3+ WAR 2B who is amazing on defense and has speed and is signed through age 30/31 at under $20 mil per (roughly the value of 2 WAR, and each WAR above 2 is valued higher than those sub 2). Not to mention, as a bonus, he is a LH bat, which is badly needed, even if it isn't a strong bat.

Right now I suspect if the Jays had signed Soto we'd be hearing non-stop from some quarters that his defense is poor and that contract will limit the Jays going forward. Right now Jay fans are angry it seems and would see a glass as 10% empty, not 90% full (not saying the Jays are that good right now, but that if they were we'd be hearing that). Yeah, the kid isn't perfect and needs work on his swing, but his bottom projection seems to be a 2.5 to 3 WAR player thanks to that defense and speed. And how else were the Jays going to get a 26 year old who is signed for his prime (26-30) for under $20 mil a year who has established himself as a 3+ WAR player? I'd be very, very happy if the Jays signed Varsho to a deal like that right now. Lock in 2 super-high end defensive players at key defensive positions for years. Do Kirk for $10-$15 per for that time frame too. Then the only issue on defense is SS, and Bo never will win a gold glove (now that stats are used as well as votes - no more DH's winning GG's unless the position is barren of decent fielders).

Now 1B/DH has a clear opening for someone - any of a half dozen+ FA's would fit (wRC+ projection for 2025) - Teoscar [ZIPS has him between a 4.1 and 1.1 fWAR for 2025, 2.6 the expected, 113 wRC+], Torres (109), Alonso (125 wRC+), Santander (119), Walker (119), Profar (116), Goldschmidt (111), Pederson (125), Winker (117), etc. Torres clearly the weakest there and given his experience is mostly 2B I'd write him off now. Winker caught my eye as I didn't expect that high a projection, he bats LH too, going into his age 31 season and expected to sign for 2/$14 due to being bad vs LHP but killer vs RHP, which fits nicely with the Jays imo (124 wRC+ in '24, 129 lifetime vs sub 100 vs LHP) and has 20 HR power and plays LF/RF (poorly generally, but not nightmare level). Profar is tempting as he had a killer year but lifetime wRC+ just under 100 so I'd be nervous and would count on scouts and advanced metrics to decide if he is for real or not. Might be best for the Jays to keep channels open with as many as possible and be ready to sign one if they come in at a price the Jays are happy with but if not then just wait it out and take whoever is left. 7 guys there with 115-125 projections for wRC+ (Torres & Goldschmidt aren't but close enough that if scouts feel their issues are nothing major they could work). Plus I'm sure there are more in that range that teams are willing to trade for minimal returns.

Last winter the Jays waited and got Turner (who seemed a good choice at the time and finished with a 117 wRC+ overall, just 112 here). Plus they got RJ Schreck out of him which seems like a good deal (Steamer sees him as a wRC+ of 101 right now based on his minor league record to date). Of course, Steamer also projects Horwitz at 123, Wagner at 118, Roden 110. If those are accurate then Wagner would be as good as any of those free agents, but a lot cheaper and Roden in eyeshot of them, while the Jays might regret losing Horwitz. Gimenez is projected at 104 for what it is worth. Remember, my summary of projections suggested roughly a 1 in 3 odds of a player outdoing their projection so who knows?

I spent some time the past year clipping together Andres Gimenez defensive plays for the baseball team that I help out with (especially the routine plays). He is a joy to watch field the ball... even on routine plays. Almost as much fun to watch defensively as Andrelton Simmons.

If a guy can put up 3 wins just from defence alone, there might be a 4-5 wins season in the defence alone meaning a league average offensive season would make an MVP candidate. The team might improve more just by switching him over to SS and putting Bo at 2B but that probably won't happen.

Yeah, $20m is lots of money, but at least for the purpose of my entertainment, this will be great.

I will very much miss watching Horwitz hit though. Lovely swing and great plate discipline. How many times did he milk 3 or 4 extra pitches after getting to 2 strikes? Reminded me of a guy who could put up Mark Grace type numbers.

I like that it's an upside play - Giménez at his career rates is a valuable player, and there's room to believe he could be quite a bit better than his career rates over the next few years. I agree that his contract is below what he'd get on the open market.

Not what I expected.
On paper, this a 4 WAR gain over playing Schneider at 2B, but we were well past that.
Horwitz was the second best hitter on the team and this seems to block Wagner who had looked really good.

This is a left bat, but of the Varsho/Biggio variety.
Maybe it's possible to win while playing 8 Varshos in the lineup. 
It doesn't seem to make sense if they all make 20M+.
He's mostly hit second or 6th.

How about the upside?
Yeah, I don't think so.
This puts too much pressure on everybody in the lineup to try to carry the team.
Guerrero included.

Now, they need 2 big bats. (LF/DH).
Maybe he moves to short when Bichette leaves and Wagner can go back to second then.
Just sign Bregman to play 3B and this will look like an Angel lineup.

On the positive side, the bullpen is halfway there, now.

Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi both writing that the Jays came in well below the winning offers for Juan Soto and Max Fried. They are also both reporting that the Jays have about 13 million left to work with for a bat, pitcher, etc...

I hope they can add more power, offense and improve the bullpen legitimately but don't see it with that budget. In fact I don't see how 13 million gets you anything impactful.

This is just the IKF situation with bigger dollars involved. It's an odd fit that doesn't make sense. It also lessens the internal value of Jimenez (no milb options) and Wagner (defensively limited to 2B/1B). Plus it pushes Orelvis back to 3B or the club is looking to move him to the outfield. Also, Josh Kasevich and Gimenez are similar players. One is better with the glove, the other is very much more expensive at $23M per year from 2028-2029... I just don't think it's smart allocation of funds. I've known Gimenez since his milb days and I don't buy that there is upside on the bat.

It feels like a "geez we can't leave the winter meetings without making a move" move. The Yankees did the same thing but did it better.

Anything they do this off season doesnt make sense if they dont add power and offense to the line up. Period. See last two years where this was not addressed. If you value WAR the trade is a win. If you value budget space it is a loss. If you value winning over WAR it is a loss. Are they honestly going to use Barger and Martinez as protection for Vlad and Springer as the lead off hitter again?

Corbin Burnes rumours...he wanted to be a Dodger. Now he is picking between the Giants and Blue Jays which sounds like a West Coast preference will win to me.

Value comes by many different shapes. Interesting to see by bWAR, Gimenez has produced more wins than Bichette in about 50 less games whereas by fWAR Bichette has produced more wins. This is to suggest that they have created value in different ways but are very comparable by these two metrics.

FG and Baseball Reference have different models to value defence and the measures can differ wildly but both suggest that Gimenez is outstanding. For comparison, FG puts far less value on IKF's defence than does B-Ref.

How to combine various ways of producing value with a collection of players is definitely an quandary facing the GM but it seems the Jays did pretty well with this move, at least viewed in a vaccuum, by my eyes.

It's can't possibly be true that they only have $13 million left - Burnes wouldn't even take their phone call if that were the case.

Two things can be true at once. You can like a player in the abstract and feel the acquisition of said player makes very little sense given the acquiring team’s existing resources and needs. Now, its possible this is shopping a year early for a SS.

You would think that's the case but so far the rumours of "Jays have highest bid for Soto" have proved false. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi have both veered away from suggestions the Jays are in on top free agents other than Soto and they both commented it is a long shot. I consider these two better sources than the Hector Gomez's, Ken Rosenthals, JP Morosi's, Mark Feinsands, etc of the world.

BNS and Davidi have both been consistent in referencing this cap and now they are both suggesting that the Jays have made their bigger move by acquiring Gimenez and they consider their RP "heavy lifting" to be done. Here are some quotes from them:

"Their first substantive moves of the off-season, on the other hand, carry immediate ramifications because they may very well be two of the most significant transactions they make this winter." They are including Yimi Garcia."

"Gimenez’s yearly CBT hit of just under $20 million, plus Garcia’s $7.5 million and Sandlin’s MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection of $1.6 million, pushes the Blue Jays’ projected total for 2025 up to $228.4 million, according to FanGraphs’ RosterResource."

"The breadcrumbs of clues dropped thus far suggest the Blue Jays’ payroll, without a Soto-like special-opportunity acquisition, is expected to land around the first CBT threshold of $241 million, which means they have roughly $13 million to work with."

"Given that they still want to add a starter, another hitter who can provide production and some low-cost bullpen fliers (maybe even one via Wednesday’s Rule 5 draft, in which they pick seventh), that’s a pretty tall task."

"Maybe they can push towards the second CBT threshold for the right player and the right opportunity — Teoscar Hernandez is someone who might fit the bill — but otherwise, barring some real roster creativity, the next phase of the Blue Jays’ off-season may very well be patiently playing the market."

"Think of how the San Francisco Giants pounced on Matt Chapman and Blake Snell last spring, or Cody Bellinger with the Chicago Cubs. The Blue Jays could now be looking for something like the 2025 versions of those deals, because they’re in a situation where every dollar matters in terms of player acquisition."

------------------ Shi Davidi - https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-seem-to-pick-a-path-with-andres-gimenez-acquisition/






"At the same time, Gimenez doesn’t address the Blue Jays’ need for power or starting pitching. Put another way, there’s the question of opportunity cost — what else could they have gotten for Horwitz, and what does the $20 million allocated toward Gimenez mean for their other pursuits?"

"Accounting for the additions of Garcia, Gimenez and Sandlin, the Blue Jays’ projected payroll now sits at $228 million, according to Roster Resource. Team president Mark Shapiro has said he doesn’t see 2025 payroll “growing or decreasing in a big way,” and last year’s team finished around $238 million, just below the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold. "

"The Blue Jays are now $13 million away from the first CBT threshold, so depending on how you interpret Shapiro’s statement, they might have $13 to $23 million to spend, barring a special allocation from ownership at Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet."


"An exception could theoretically be made for someone like Corbin Burnes or Alex Bregman, but the Blue Jays' baseball ops team has stayed disciplined so far this winter, and their bids for Juan Soto and Fried have been substantially lower than the eventual winners, sources told Sportsnet. With that in mind, a deal with Burnes or Bregman seems less likely."

Ben Nicholson Smith - https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/what-surprising-gimenez-deal-means-for-the-blue-jays/

The Jays could be near their limit, or they could have millions more than we know of. They could even have a deal planned for Springer to clear up some payroll, or one for Bo which also would clear space. Lots of variables so I wouldn't worry too much right now. If the rumors of the Jays being in on the big names vanishes then I'd worry a bit more, or if we start hearing from agents that the Jays have closed down shop on FA's. But neither of those is the case.

As to the free agent hitters - none excite me. Yeah, Santander and Teoscar both are interesting but as I mentioned, they are part of a group of about 7-9 who are all projected in the same range for wRC+ and would be likely to produce around the level Justin Turner did last year (and Horwitz is projected for this year). ie: hardly game changing. Soto was the only bat that was game changing on the market this winter. None projected for 3+ fWAR in 2025. So no, I'm not heartbroken if the Jays sit back and wait on a hitter until spring, or even just go with what is here. I'd much prefer a trade at this point.

I think Davidi and BNS are fine but don't find them particularly well-sourced. I mean are Jays transactions ever broken by Jays' writers? Ali Alexander broke Yimi. Passan I think broke the trade. If Jays have $20M left, spend it on a starter and trade some infield depth for a bat. Was surprised Jays were not on Burger who can play 3B and has power.

Giménez is young enough to bounce back at the plate, but this is another transaction in the defense-first mindset. It's not good enough.

In that division, I think your management has to be better than the rest, and spend more, as was the case with the two world series teams. I don't see either being the case with this organization.

I don't have a lot of respect for Smith and Davidi.
The Cubs signed Bellinger because they didn't think they were getting their QO return anyway.
It's similar to how the Jays signed Bautista back in 2018.
It's kinda like a mutual option. It's not "pouncing" on the market. It's hedging a loss.
Chapman, Snell and Bellinger are the types of deals that horrifies this front office.
Shapiro hates player options. I don't see them signing anyone on a 1 year deal with 2 or 3 player options.
Belt put on a great year in Toronto but didn't generate any interest the following year.
Nobody else had any interest in KK.
If anything, that's the type of players they will be after.

Most losing bids are lower. Nothing magical about that.

To me, the single biggest move is Vlad. Try to sign him and if you can't by say, spring training, you 100% have to trade him. Going into the season with Vlad on expiring contract would be one of the single dumbest moves any management team has done in decades. Think of the different possible outcomes:
1) Jays win a world series. Keeping him was worth it!
2) Jays go in playoffs but don't win. Lose Vlad for nothing.
3) Jays miss playoffs but are close so don't trade Vlad and lose him for nothing.
4) Jays miss playoffs and trade Vlad at deadline and get MUCH less than they would in off-season.

Looking at that and thinking "yes, let's just go with it and see what happens" is a fireable offense. Sign him or trade him.

A 40 HR bat might seem boring, but when the lineup is filled with average bats and little power, it is game changing.
Maybe Bichette bounces back to a degree and that bat can replace Springer's output and they're back to the offense level or previous years.

Right now, they don't even have Turner, so they look worse than last year.

Chapman came here and struggled defensively the first year, than forgot how to hit one month into the second year.
Gimenez is basically that last version of Chapman.
He can't really bounce back because he's already playing at his career level.
At 26, he's old enough to decline.

I think it's similar to the Drury and Refsnyder moves.
Those guys had some upside but it never showed up here.

I wonder what the Jays players are thinking.

Ben and Shi don't break news because they work for Rogers and the Jays hate leaks. They wouldn't keep their jobs long if they did that.

Gimenez is lipstick on a pig. This is still a roster very far from contending and there's not much money left to pick up an impact player or two.

At least Vladdy and Bo will be motivated to perform well in 2025... watching both walk out the door for nothing more than draft picks, though, will be tough.

I agree it makes a lot of sense to trade Vlad before the season starts if he is not re-signed which is another reason the Horwitz trade makes little sense since he was someone who could move into the 1B role at a price and performance this FO valued since they don't value the contract value Vlad wants because he plays 1B and 1B don't make that much money.

Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper make 27 million a year and Paul Goldschmidt makes 26 million. If you're good, you get paid.

Ben Nicholson Smith is saying Gimenez’s CBT number is $19.3M. So looks like the CBT number resets after a trade to factor in only the obligations that the new team has. That makes this trade mind boggling to me because $20M of your available payroll going to a glove first 2B is insane given the number of holes the Jays have. Either they have way more money to spend than it is being reported or Atkins is going to double down on the D-first mindset even if it costs him his job. It just might if Gimenez is their biggest move.

I looked at Cot's baseball contracts and Gimenez's 2025 pay is $10mil up from $5mil in 2024. I don't know if that is accurate.

Horwitz had a great 2024 hitting and possibly was better than R Arozarena as well lets bring L Arraez into the conversation. The money for L Ortiz and Horwitz may be similar. Injuries seem to be more frequent to pitchers than hitters I think. So Cherrington may have won the trade. I thought St Louis made a V good trade with TB by getting M Liberatore for Arozarena. I was wrong.

I feel Atkins needs praise for the Gimenez trade because on paper the 2025 team is stronger. But Horwitz probably hits more HRs than Gimenez..

IMO being competitive until the last 2 weeks of the season rather than end of June will help revenue from a purely financial viewpoint. But will the Rogers financial people see it that way? I don't know. If Rogers does not like those results of being competitive till the end of the season then Shapiro/Atkins may be let go. But if these results are acceptable then both are extended.

Previous years, [Bichette] was QUITE angry with the Jays for arbitration deals and took a 3-year deal he didn't like to avoid doing more of it, and seemed to have a chip on his shoulder for quite some time.

Then again, maybe *THAT* was the mistaken interpretation of his previous actions, and that quote you linked is the real deal. shrug.

IIRC, most people agreed with the "Bo wants out (badly)" interpretation, at least at some point in the past 1-2 years. But I am not a mind reader, so I could easily be wrong on all my claims.

It absolutely could be PR speak, and it's almost certainly at least somewhat PR speak (why say anythying publicly if not for PR?), but it's the most recent thing Bo's said on the subject, so I tend to accept it on face value. But if there's one thing that we love more than being armchair GMs, it's being armchair body language analysts! :)

"Ben Nicholson Smith is saying Gimenez’s CBT number is $19.3M. So looks like the CBT number resets after a trade to factor in only the obligations that the new team has"

agreed that is awful if true.

but on the other hand, it doesn't make a lot of sense that this is how CBT works. does anyone know for sure?

I really don't understand all this talk about Gimenez isn't what the Blue Jays need. The Blue Jays need to get better. Gimenez makes them better. Yes, I'd love to have a 40 home run bat. But just because that's not what Gimenez is doesn't make this a bad trade. I'm sorry those arguments are not logical.

CBT is total value of the contract divided by the number of years, and after a trade, it's recalculated based on the length of the contract remaining.

Thanks for the explanation Joe. The CBT had me completely baffled. It is good to know what Shapiro/Atkins have to work with.

I only wanted 1 more good reliever to be satisfied. Barger and Orevlis may produce the HR power. They need to be given a chance IMO.

"I really don't understand all this talk about Gimenez isn't what the Blue Jays need. The Blue Jays need to get better. Gimenez makes them better. Yes, I'd love to have a 40 home run bat. But just because that's not what Gimenez is doesn't make this a bad trade. I'm sorry those arguments are not logical."

Offensively speaking this team is worse when you factor in the player traded for Gimenez. That's the issue for some. You are short on offense and you trade away one of your two best hitters from last year for a glove-first player coming back. It only exacerbates things when both CLE and PIT valued Horwitz more than the Jays. Maybe Horwitz was expendable here since he has little defensive value outside of 1B, but then this FO better feel damn confident they are resigning Vlad which...doesn't look very probably to me.

When it comes to Vlad there are a few questions. Last winter I suspect few here would've been happy about a 10+ year $300+ million contract. Then he hit like in 2021 and we all are 'give him what he wants'. Heck, a year ago many would've rather given that to Bo due to his ability to play SS vs Vlad's poor defense at 1B (GG notwithstanding).

There is an old rule Bill James used to advise following - would you have made the same deal/trade/whatever a year ago? And if not then why not? Have the parameters really changed that much? Looking at Vlad's #'s in 2023 his K%, BB% were both in eyeshot of this year with the K% being a career best at the time, BB% his 2nd best to 2021. His xwOBA was also in eyeshot of 2021 and 2024 - all this in spite of a 118 wRC+ which suggested he wasn't that good. The more I dig the more likely it is that his numbers are for real and more likely to be at a 140+ wRC+ level than a 120 level. So yes, a long term deal makes a ton of sense. Just wanted to double check that it wasn't a sudden blip in 2024 that might not continue. His #'s underneath all suggest this is who he is. He'll have bad years thanks to piss poor BABIP or just plain old bad luck (line drives right at guys). But overall, yes, he is a $400 million guy with the bat.

Now, the big question is why would he stay? He is friends with Soto and José Ramírez afaik and they could tell him tales of why to stay and why to go. Soto clearly got insane money by going, but he also had an eye on multiple clubhouses and situations (Washington, SD, NYY, and now NYM). Ramirez has been a 1 team guy and made a choice to stay that way, rumored to be in part due to a belief (proven by stats) that a guy who stays in one place has a better HOF shot than a guy who jumps around a lot. Soto's final numbers should be insane enough to make that irrelevant, but will Vlad's? His dad got in on his 2nd try which surprised me to be honest - I saw him as a LOT more marginal HOFer than voters did - he played on just 2 teams for the vast majority of his career (2 more in his final 2 years). Vlad could do the same and probably get the same end result if he keeps producing. The question is does he like it here? Soto could tell him that the grass isn't always greener elsewhere. Ramirez could tell him that he is happy having fans who love him from day one and how they will accept him doing anything due to his choosing to stay. I suspect if he chooses to stay here he'd be one of those guys who gets identified with the team forever and gets his number retired with all kinds of celebrations. Go elsewhere and would he get the same? Maybe, but there is a risk there. It all comes down to what he wants.

As to the team what is needed? Wins. The Dodgers of the 60's had no offense but won a lot. In 1965 they won it all with their top hitter by OPS+ being at 3B with a 125, RF had a 115 (Ron Fairly). Heck, their #2 pitcher, Don Drysdale, was probably their best hitter at 140, 2.1 bWAR with his bat alone (3.2 with his arm on the mound). A different era, but noteworthy that a team can win with just defense and pitching. This years Dodgers had 3 guys with a 140+ OPS+ then Teoscar at 137. Yikes. But 140 IP was the max they got from any pitcher so it was a tightrope walk to pull it off. The Rangers in 2023 had a OPS+ of 116 vs ERA+ of 101. The Astros won in '22 with insane pitching and hitting (just a dominate team). So yeah, recently the hitters have been winning, but will that continue? Nah. Historically you can win with either wow hitting + meh pitching/defense, or meh hitting & wow pitching/defense. Right now the market is grossly valuing power over all else (arm & bat power) so going for the best defense and pitching makes sense. Everyone else goes direction A you go B and if you are right you look great. If it flops you get fired. I suspect Atkins & Shapiro are strong pitching/defense guys who are zigging while the league zags. Will it work? Didn't in 2024 but might in '25. We'll see. I'd feel better with a big bat mixed in, but as I've said 1001 times the market right now doesn't have that big impact bat in FA, only via trade.

Garrett Crochet is being traded to the Red Sox.

Jays select Angel Bastardo, a reliever from the Red Sox in the rule 5 draft.

Just a quick observation (which is probably fairly obvious to everyone): better defense can make a difference, IFF you have a groundball-leaning pitching staff.

If your pitchers mainly give up runs via the longball, you can get all the defensive wizards you want, but I don't think it will change the overall RA measure that much.

No Blue Jays were selected in the major league rule 5 draft.

Why did the Blue Jays draft Angel Bastardo? The guy had Tommy John surgery this past June.

Consider those near no-hitters that Francis threw late last year.
More offense would have turned those into wins.
Now, instead, we'll have more of these types of losses.

I watched every televised game. I don't remember ever thinking, "Damn, if only we'd have more defense at second. We would have won today.".
It's like in hockey. Would you trade all your best scorers for the best defensive players in the league? That's not a winning proposition.

Maybe the defensive metrics are equivalent to the offensive ones, but Geminez isn't going to bring back the homers that the other teams will hit.
If anything, the Jays obsession with shifting will reduce his defensive numbers.

Bastardo has a 5th starter floor.
He's not a reliever.
The fastball is at 97mph and he has a good change.
The Jays need to keep him on the 40 roster until February then they move him to the 60IL until he's ready to return late in the year.
It's robbery.

The Jays picked two players in the minor league phase. They also lost Garrett Spain.

There's some detailed information on him on a Red Sox prospect site.
They think the change is MLB ready. 
However, the fastball has good velo, 93-96mph and tops at 97, but has been hittable and has not missed bats.
Both the curve and the sliders are work in progress. 
He's been a starter in the minors, but they think he'll end up as a multi-inning reliever.

Oh, and he's a native of Moron, Venezuela.

Atkins was right to not protect anyone. Our 40 man roster is still loaded with unknowns IMO.

whoa there's an actual jays exec who speaks like a normal person. expect him to be fired soon.



Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
33m
Blue Jays AGM Mike Murov said the Blue Jays aren't done adding by any stretch. Praised Jays' younger players and said: "hopefully we can raise the ceiling rather than just the floor."

I remain convinced there is no unicorn budget and the Jays are going to spend unprecedented amounts of money. The difference between this year and last is that Shapiro/Atkins have admitted in public comments since the season ended that not only do they need significant internalimprovement, but that the core they built between '21-×4 needs to be added to significantly. Those making comparisons to the acquisitions last off-season I think are fear mongering a bit.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
Speaking to Blue Jays AGM Mike Murov just now, I said that from the outside looking in possible areas for upgrade seem to include a power bat, a starting pitcher and further bullpen help. "Sign me up," he replied.

Ceiling is what they need to raise! Go get Burnes and then take it from there.

The Jays picked a reliever and a CF from the Cubs in the AAA Phase.
The lost Garrett Spain to the Brewers. He's a hockey player who ended up playing baseball.

Mike Murov will celebrate 10 years with the Jays organization in January.
He was promoted to assistant GM almost 3 years ago,

"whoa there's an actual jays exec who speaks like a normal person. expect him to be fired soon." lol

Would be weird to non-tender Romano and not sign a closer.

Would be weird to non-tender Romano and not sign a closer.

I'm guessing that's what Yimi is for? Setup man Swanson?

I never heard of Mike Murov. What are his duties? BNS may be making this character up. Hopefully not but I refuse to be blind anymore.

I see the pen right now as Green-Garcia-Swanson fighting for closing opportunities, losers being setup men, Sandlin-Little-Pop the 4-6 guys (short relief, used where best suited), then Burr-Nance-Danner-Robertson-Eisert-deGeus-Lucas-Peterson all 40 man guys fighting for the final 2 slots. Ideally 2 more good pitchers added so Pop is shifted to the fight for the final pen slot. But my bet is on a closer who either lost his job and is now hunting for work or one who ends up desperate for a shot come January thus can be signed for sub $10 mil. I'd love Robertson, Jansen, Yates - one of those old guys who has done the job before and still can but might not be up to 2-3 games in a row anymore. With Green & Garcia you could easily give them the next game off and work around it.

Tons of options at this point in time. For starters I'd only really be after Burnes and the Japanese pitchers who are available. None of the others jump out as really being a big improvement on what we have now for the $$$ they'd cost. Scherzer I'd consider just for the pedigree (HOF as soon as eligible) but odds are he has little left at this point and would only go to a few places and I doubt Toronto is one of them.

My big guess right now is the Jays are hunting hard for a solid DH - ideally one whose team needs to clear space for whatever reason, and who could play a bit in LF, and who bats left or switch. Just 14 hitters were LHH who had a 130+ wRC+ over '22-'24 over 300+ PA. Joc Pederson is one of them and the only one who is currently a free agent. The others all look unavailable (very little ML service time, thus no sane team would trade them, or are stars). Switch hitters is a very short list - José Ramírez. I'm really not seeing much. Pederson would be nice, but hasn't had 500+ PA since pre-COVID, and just twice in his entire career (entering his age 33 season) and is projected at a 125 wRC+ for 2025. He is expected to get a 2/$28 deal despite being a full time DH now (technically could play LF but didn't play in the field in 2024 at all). The more I look the more tempting he is. Has power (23 HR last year, 27/162 G in his career) and seems a solid enough hitter, plus being LH mixes nicely with Vlad and others. His price in $$ and years shouldn't be nuts (MLBTR has it at 2/$24). His limits (slow, no defense) keeps most teams away but with the Jays lineup being super-flexible and with many speed demons in AAA waiting for a chance it could work.

I roughly agree with your tier rankings, John, but there's no way that Burr isn't ahead of Pop.

I was mainly going by gut, but also by how they were used in 2024. Despite sucking Pop had 15 high leverage-15 medium-28 low leverage games. Burr 6-4-20. So clearly the Jays felt Pop was better for high leverage than Burr. Both are fungible imo, and I wouldn't say one is a lot higher than the other. Probably should've put them both in the same tier and had #8 being the wide open battle. I suspect the Jays will sign 2 more guys at least though thus making it academic.

For what it's worth, Fangraphs ranks the bullpen like this:
CL Green
CL Garcia
SU7 Swanson
MID Nick Sandlin
MID Burr
MID Little
MID Pop
LR Nance

I think the CBT concern is overblown. Remember that’s just the number for tax calculations, it’s not cash out the door. The Jays budget will be based on the total spend, so while’s it’s no ideal that Giménez will come in at $19.3M, all it means is that the jays will use more of the budget to pay tax than they otherwise would have.