Figured as the projection systems start churning out we should see how they did last year with our Jays.
Last year ZIPS had the Jays projected to be 3rd, 87-75 with a high-low of 95 and 78 wins - reality was 74 wins. Sigh.
For players Here are projections for 2022, 2023 and 2024 with range and reality for guys still here are...
Last year ZIPS had the Jays projected to be 3rd, 87-75 with a high-low of 95 and 78 wins - reality was 74 wins. Sigh.
For players Here are projections for 2022, 2023 and 2024 with range and reality for guys still here are...
| WAR | Avg/OBP/Slg | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who | What | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Beat Projection |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Projection | 5.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 303/390/585 | 284/359/514 | 278/357/492 | 1 |
| Reality | 3.3 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 274/339/480 | 264/345/444 | 323/396/544 | ||
| Bo Bichette | Projection | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 291/341/497 | 280/327/469 | 292/333/471 | 1 |
| Reality | 4.8 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 290/333/469 | 306/339/475 | 225/277/322 | ||
| George Springer | Projection | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 267/352/513 | 262/345/491 | 254/328/432 | 1 |
| Reality | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 267/342/472 | 258/327/405 | 220/303/371 | ||
| Alejandro Kirk | Projection | 1.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 252/327/436 | 267/352/426 | 263/345/403 | 1 |
| Reality | 4.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 285/372/415 | 250/334/358 | 253/319/359 | ||
| Orelvis Martinez | Projection | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 226/275/426 | 218/280/426 | 221/289/413 | -- |
| Reality | -- | -- | -0.1 | -0.1 | 203/286/446* | 243/340/496* | 267/346/523* | ||
| Spencer Horwitz | Projection | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 246/311/380 | 242/322/380 | 255/343/384 | 1 |
| Reality | -- | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 246/361/363* | 256/341/385 | 265/357/433 | ||
| Davis Schneider | Projection | -- | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -- | 222/303/393 | 230/333/430 | 1 |
| Reality | -- | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 253/366/457* | 276/404/603 | 191/282/343 | ||
| Daulton Varsho | Projection | 1.5 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
251/319/433 |
258/325/478 |
241/304/455 |
2 |
| Reality | 4.4 |
2.1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
235/302/443 |
220/285/389 |
214/293/407 |
||
| Ernie Clement | Projection | 0.1 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
241/284/328 |
245/295/328 |
270/311/390 |
1 |
| Reality | -0.8 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
184/243/209 |
380/385/500 |
263/284/408 |
||
| Teoscar Hernández | Projection | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 268/324/505 | 253/308/462 | 263/314/472 | 2 |
| Reality | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 267/316/491 | 258/305/435 | 272/339/501 | ||
Notes:
- I included Teoscar just as I figured many here would be curious.
- Orelvis included as I found it interesting how his projection shifted over those 3 years. Ignore WAR for rookies as the playing time estimates are rarely close to reality for them.
- Varsho was in Arizona in 2022, 2023's projection was based on Arizona not Toronto, Hernandez' projections/reality for 2023 were in Seattle, 2024 LAD.
- An * indicates minor league stats, not major league (Orevlis only had 3 PA so I didn't see any point in listing him at 333/333/333 for this season)
- -- indicates no projection available, or no WAR as they were in the minors.
- Odd that everyone beat projections at least once, and failed to beat them at least once over 3 years. I was sure someone would fail or succeed all 3 years.
Now for pitchers (bigger crapshoot than hitters)
| WAR | ERA+ IP | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who | What | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Avg | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Beat Projection |
| Kevin Gausman | Projection | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 125 - 165 | 117 - 162 | 124 - 169 | 2 |
| Reality | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 115 - 175 | 136 - 185 | 105 - 181 | ||
| José Berríos | Projection | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 117 - 185 | 97 - 166 | 105 - 170 | 1 |
| Reality | 0.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 74 - 172 | 117 - 190 | 112 - 192 | ||
| Alek Manoah | Projection | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 127 - 120 | 124 - 181 | 96 - 121 | 1 |
| Reality | 3.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 172 - 197 | 73 - 87 | 110 - 24 | ||
| Yusei Kikuchi | Projection | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 97 - 149 | 110 - 95 | 98 - 136 | 2 |
| Reality | -0.9 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 74 - 101 | 111 - 168 | 99 - 176 | ||
| Bowden Francis | Projection | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 88 - 125 | 88 - 102 | 100 - 88 | 0 |
| Reality | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 999 - 1 | 249 - 36 | 122 - 104 | ||
| Jordan Romano | Projection | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 134 - 56 | 117 - 59 | 128 - 59 | 2 |
| Reality | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 183 - 64 | 149 - 59 | 63 - 14 | ||
| Tim Mayza | Projection | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 126 - 51 | 50 - 118 | 119 - 55 | 1 |
| Reality | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 123 - 49 | 284 - 53 | 65 - 43 | ||
| Nate Pearson | Projection | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 100 - 60 | 65 - 97 | 97 - 57 | 0 |
| Reality | -- | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -- | 89 - 43 | 90 - 66 | ||
| Yimi García | Projection | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 105 - 53 | 106 - 56 | 106 - 57 | 2 |
| Reality | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 125 - 61 | 105 - 66 | 116 - 39 | ||
Notes:
- A bit different than the hitters as we have 2 who never achieved the projections for them (Francis & Pearson, although Francis did by bWAR both in '23 and '24, but fWAR relies on FIP which thinks pitchers have no control over batted balls that stay in the park).
- I listed a few guys no longer here in Garcia, Pearson, Mayza, Romano just so we'd be able to see bullpen projections over 3 years. Kikuchi's projection for 2022 was with Seattle.
- Gausman, Kikuchi, and Garcia the only ones to avergage more fWAR than projected over the 3 years combined.
- Kikuchi and Gausman both are FIP darlings but ERA laggards - looking at ERA+ you wouldn't expect the WAR totals you see. The Angels are clearly betting on Kikuchi being his FIP self, not his ERA self going forward.
Bottom line from all of this - seems in most cases 1 out of 3 times the player will not meet projections, and 1 out of 3 times they will exceed the projections. Very rare to always be better or always be worse. Can anyone pick up a pattern in who is better/worse to help guess when the ZIPs projections come out for the Jays at some point this winter? It'd be nice to have an idea as to who to expect to outplay expectations, or who will flop. If you can figure it out I'm sure Ross Atkins would like to talk with you.
