Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
And then there were four.


All four of the remaining teams have won a championship, and three of them have even done so in the current millennium. Of the four possible matchups, all but one has been seen before (not necessarily all that recently.)

The Yankees, who did win more games than any team in the AL, have made it to the World Series 40 times - I know, the world is not fair - and they've won 27 of them. Enough is enough. On the bright side, they haven't made it to the Fall Classic since 2009, which matches the longest such streak since they became the Yankees back in 1913. Ah, the glory years between their Series appearances in 1981 and 1996. Once they match that by losing to Cleveland they can get to work on matching their longest streak without a championship (the period between 1978 and 1996.) Just a few more years of disappointment in the Bronx will do the trick.

The Dodgers, who won more games than any team in the majors this year, probably deserve to be here. But they've already been to the World Series 21 times, winning seven times. I suppose we all tend to discount somewhat the most recent of them, in the pandemic year of 2020. Obviously it's not the Dodgers' fault that it was a 60 game season, any more than it was their fault in 1981 that there was a strike and a split season, and all kinds of stupid stuff that somehow tainted their accomplishment. But there was, and it did.

The Mets have made five trips to the World Series, winning twice - the Miracle Mets won in 1969, and Bill Buckner couldn't handle a ground ball in 1986. You've probably seen the video. They were last here in 2015, only to be dismissed in five games by Kansas City.

Cleveland has made six trips to the World Series, winning twice - but both victories happened so long ago that on both occasions their best player also happened to be the team's manager (Tris Speaker in 1920, Lou Boudreau in 1948.) Most recently they lost a memorable seven game affair in 2016 as another star-crossed franchise, the Cubs, finally ended a string of futility that had lasted more than a century.

The Dodgers and the Yankees have met before, as everyone knows. Not recently, but they made up for it back in the day. It's a long story:

The Yankees won their first meeting in 1941, in the first Subway Series - there would be seven such meetings over the next sixteen years. This was a series that famously turned on a dropped third strike. With two outs, no one on base, and a one-run lead, the Dodgers were one pitch away from evening the series at two games apiece. But Mickey Owen couldn't handle a third strike from reliever Hugh Casey and Tommy Henrich reached first base. The Yankees got off the mat - DiMaggio singled, Keller doubled in two runs, Dickey walked, Gordon doubled in two more runs - for the sudden, shocking win. They closed out the Series the following day.

The Yankees needed seven games to win again in 1947, a series best remembered for the Dodgers win in the fourth game. Yankees starter Bill Bevens was one out away from the first no-hitter in World Series history. He had already walked nine men, and when pinch-runner Al Gionfriddo (who would later make a famous a catch on DiMaggio in the sixth game) stole second, the Yankees decided Bevens might as well make it ten bases on balls. The intentional walk to Reiser pit the go-ahead run on base for pinch hitter Cookie Lavagetto. In the last at bat of his career, Lavagetto broke up the no-hitter and walked it off with a two-run double.

The Yankees won again in 1949. They only needed five games this time, and Tommy Henrich connected for the first walk-off home run in World Series history in the opener. Allie Reynolds tossed a two-hit shutout to win that game; in the fourth game he came out of the pen in the sixth inning with the tying runs on base and retired all ten batters he faced.

The Yankees won in seven games in 1952 - Reynolds pitched a shutout in the fourth game, and came out of the pen to save the sixth game and yet again to win the finale (that was the game with Billy Martin's famous catch of the wind-blown pop up.) A year later, Martin was the hitting hero (his 12 hits tied the Series record) as the Yankees took the 1953 Series in six games. Wait Until Next Year had become a Brooklyn cliché.

Next year actually arrived in 1955, as a young southpaw named Johnny Podres shut out the Yankees 2-0 in the seventh game. The Yankees avenged that defeat a year later, in a series always remembered for Don Larsen's perfect game. ("Do you ever get tired of talking about the perfect game, Don?" "No, why would I?") And then the Dodgers lit out for the coast. The Boys of Summer were gone, and I saw a Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac.

The teams would meet again in 1963, and the Dodgers pitchers - Koufax, Drysdale, Podres - completely shut down the Yankees bats (New York hit .171/.207/.240) in a four game sweep. They met again in 1977 (Reggie! Reggie! Reggie!) and 1978 (more Reggie), with the Yankees winning both times. And finally they played each other one last time in 1981. That one went to the Dodgers - Dave Winfield went 1-22 and Yankee reliever George Frazier went 0-3, 17.18 in his three appearances.

The Yankees and the Mets have met just one time - it was back in 2000, and while it went just five games and is mostly remembered for Roger Clemens flinging a bat at Mike Piazza, all five games were close and interesting.

Cleveland and the Dodgers have met just once in the World Series - and wouldn't you know it, but I've actually written some 1600 words about that very encounter. (It's buried in the midst of a 10,000 word epic on the 1920 season.) Cleveland's team was known as the Indians back then and the Dodgers were in Brooklyn. In fact, back in 1920, they had yet to become the Dodgers - they were known as the Brooklyn Robins. It was an incredible season, one of the most significant in all of the game's history (Babe Ruth, the death of Ray Chapman, the Black Sox scandal, Babe Freaking Ruth) and the World Series had its moments as well - the first World Series grand slam, an unassisted triple play, the first World Series homer hit by a pitcher.

But Cleveland and the Mets have never met in the World Series. Never. Not even once. So I suppose that's got to be my preferred selection. 

As a consolation prize, I'll accept a rematch of the 1920 Series. Just no damn Yankees.
The League Championship Series | 108 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Sunday, October 13 2024 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#453435) #
An assortment of stories left to be told in the 2024 season.
  • Will Ohtani get his first ring?
  • Will the Yankees avoid their longest no-WS period? Last time there was 2009, 14 years was the recent record they broke (matching Don Mattingly's career nicely), but the all-time is 1903-1920 (18 years). You can take 1 off of each as there was 1 year in each group that didn't have a WS (1904 and 1994). This group doesn't have that excuse for their 14 year drought that they hope to end this year.
  • Can Cleveland break their long no WS winning streak? They won titles in 1948 & 1920. That's it.
  • Mets - can they win despite not going coo-coo with payroll last winter after doing that the year before?
Ex-Jays (or current or drafted by) and Canadians
  • Dodgers: 7 - Teoscar, Kiermaier, Biggio (even though he is no longer there), James Paxton (drafted by the Jays, not signed, no longer a Dodger), Daniel Hudson (2019), Ryan Yarbrough (even though he now is a Jay), Zach Logue (was part of the Chapman deal, never played in majors with Jays) all get a ring too. Plus Canadians Paxton & Freeman (well, played for Team Canada)
  • Guardians: 5 - Lane Thomas (5th round pick, traded for International Bonus slot space), Anthony Gose (released a couple of times, now a LH reliever not a CF), Matthew Boyd (2015 - part of the David Price deal), Tyler Beede (drafted but DNS), Wes Parsons (2023/24). Plus Canadians Cade Smith, Erik Sabrowski, Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor
  • Yankees: 5 - Jon Berti (2018), Kevin Smith (2021, used twice as a PR and that's it), Marcus Stroman, Tim Mayza, Phil Bickford (drafted, DNS). No Canadians like we needed more reasons to boo them.
  • Mets: 1 - Sean Reid-Foley (once a hot prospect, part of deal for Steven Matz). No Canadians here either.
I'm thinking I must be missing a few ex-Jays. But if we want ex-Jays and Canadians we need to cheer the Dodgers and Cleveland on this time. Not hard as I like booing NY teams.
Magpie - Sunday, October 13 2024 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#453437) #
but the all-time is 1903-1920 (18 years).

True, but I figured - hey, they were the Highlanders through 1912!
ISLAND BOY - Monday, October 14 2024 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#453440) #
" I'm thinking I must be missing a few ex-Jays."

John Gibbons is the bench coach for the Mets. A reason to cheer for them I'd say.
jerjapan - Monday, October 14 2024 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#453443) #
I've been to old Yankee stadium to see the Jays play (and, as a ten-year old, to be introduced to NYY  hospitality ....), been to Dodger stadium, these are historically great teams, but I want a Mets - Cleveland WS.  One of the great loser franchises will shed the label.  I've always loved the historical element of baseball, all that windy lore.  I don't think any of the other major sports in North America can compete. 

I'm pulling for the ex-Jays, and glad to know Gibby is with the Mets, I'll watch for him.  Teoscar, Jon Berti (I love my underdog AAAA guys).
But yeah, give me Mets - Cleveland.  I like the loser-overcomes storyline.  Am I wrong in that part of the appeal of a Cleveland win over the NYM is seeing Jon Stewart's hopes dashed, again? 

   


John Northey - Monday, October 14 2024 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#453445) #
Can't believe I didn't write in Gibbons there. Any other ex-Jays in coaching ranks for the final 4?  No one jumps out at me from Cleveland, the Dodgers don't seem to have any either. Yankees? Again none I can see. Leaving just the Mets with Gibbons, Danny Barnes (in pen for 16-18), so not many ex-Jays coaching for the final 4. Some of the coaches might have done some coaching here but I don't recognize the names, thus why I put the links in so others can check easily.
Parker - Tuesday, October 15 2024 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#453451) #
I really miss the LOLMets, so I'm pulling for a WS where the Mets take a 3-0 series lead but end up losing in seven to the Clevelands.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 15 2024 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#453453) #
It's a shame that Luke Weaver is employed by the Yankees. He's the most entertaining interview since Lance Lynn was in his prime.
scottt - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 05:40 AM EDT (#453454) #
Varsho is finally nominated for a gold glove.

Surprised to see Clement getting the nod at third.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#453455) #
Kirk should have been nominated at catcher but Gold Gloves have long been worst awards. I mean, Soto was nominated for Gold Glove. Fantastic player but he is a bad fielder.
Nigel - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#453456) #
The Gold Gloves have to be taken with a huge grain of salt but, by the defensive metrics, Clement was the best fielding 3B in the AL this year. I thought that mostly met the eye test. I thought he was very good defensively, although not elite. Kirk’s issue is that he was called a terrible defensive C as a prospect. That assessment (true or not) will take years, if ever, to go away. He’s become an elite defender.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#453457) #
I think an important thing being missed which is very important to many voters is the playing time. Kirk may be getting penalized because he is not considered an every day catcher by many. Not based on his actual games played but based on the eye test "this guy cant and wont play x amount of hames." Clement on the other hand is someone that likely passes this test. "He doesnt play every day but thats because of the managers decisions and he probably is this good if he plays every day."
Ducey - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#453458) #
Lets face it, Kirk doesnt look like a good defensive player.

He looks like a couch potato that should try and get some exercise occasionally (you know, like us). When he runs, it certainly reinforces the bias.

Its going to take some really extraordinary defensing to convince the world at large that he actually is a good athlete
Glevin - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#453459) #
"Kirk may be getting penalized because he is not considered an every day catcher by many."

Kirk played 100 more innings than Fermin who was nominated.

"Lets face it, Kirk doesnt look like a good defensive player."

I think this is a lot of it.

uglyone - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#453460) #
cuz short'n'fat has plagued his rep every step in his career.

should help us re-sign him for cheap at least.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#453461) #
The one problem with the narrative about Kirk's body shape keeping him from being nominated for a Gold Glove is he was nominated last year. I suspect given time he'll become a regular on the nominee list as he seems to keep getting better every year.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#453462) #
Of note: The Rays won't be opening in their home park in 2025 as that destroyed roof can't be fixed in time (too many more important things to fix first plus the interior is also damaged).

Options:
  • Miami - logical location wise, sticks in Florida. Problem is conflicts. Games 1-9 for the Rays at home are also games for Miami at home. Plus many others I'm sure (stopped checking at that point).
  • Montreal - the roof is being replaced, started this past summer, at a cost of $870 million. Putting a team there might be a challenge pre-2028 when the roof is fully installed.
  • Vancouver - A stadium but needs some work to be MLB ready, but could do the job. Biggest issue is being on the west coast for an east coast team.
  • Oakland - stadium is there and ready, but same issue with being west instead of east.
  • Turner Field - the Braves old park, still standing and used now for college football it seems, so that could potentially be temporarily used but again, lots of work needed to get it ready.
  • Dunedin - Jays had it renovated for TV purposes but holds very, very few fans. However, it could be an option as could any spring training park in Florida however the rain/heat could be a massive issue if the Rays park isn't ready by summer (June/July/August).
  • NFL cities without ML baseball - Carolina in particular - lots of renos would be needed as those parks are designed for football and football only. Odds are we'd see a super short distance to one corner, long to the other ala how it was for the Dodgers when they went out west at first - 251' to left field, 420' dead CF, 300' RF.

This could be a major headache for MLB. They might do road games for the Rays all the time to start, with so few practical other options. But that would put the Rays at a massive disadvantage not seen since the 1899 Spiders did that for a big chunk of the season due to no fan support.
Nigel - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#453463) #
There's an open question about whether Tropicana Field's roof will be fixed at all. Construction on the new stadium in Tampa was set to begin in the New Year and there is considerable speculation that fixing the roof of the Trop may not be a priority given the new stadium.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#453464) #
I mean, most obvious solution is Steinbrenner Field in Tampa but it's outdoor which would mean a lot of delays and cancellations and fits 11K people which is not ideal but not much lower than Ray's actually draw. There's also Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando which is similar and not far away.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#453465) #
Yeah, the more I think about it the more those parks make sense. I'm pretty sure after reading about the roof in Montreal that it is out of the picture until expansion happens again, at which point the park might be a lot better for it anyways (plus they probably will build a new roofless one too if they get a team).

Funny, a LCS thread but few seem interested. Kind of moving towards cheering the Dodgers due to the ex-Jay factor and the Canadians factor. Be nice for Kiermaier to get a ring in his final season, and for Teoscar to do well and get a ring too. Dodgers up in game 3 as I type, just hate that it looks like the Yankees will get there too.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, October 16 2024 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#453467) #
"Few seem interested..."

It's funny I read today that Game 5 of the ALDS between Cleveland and Detroit was the most watched ALDS game in 16 years.

John Northey - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#453470) #
I was more talking about here at Batter's Box, not in the USA. Nice for MLB if the Americans are finding it fun, but that doesn't matter at all to me.
John Northey - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#453471) #
Looking more and more like a Dodger-Yankee World Series - used to be common in the 50's, but the last one was 1981 I think. Since 1981 Dodgers in WS in 1988 (vs Oakland), 2017 (vs Houston), 2018 (vs Red Sox), 2020 (vs Rays). Yankees since 1981: 1996 (Atlanta), 1998 (Padres), 1999 (Atlanta), 2000 (Mets), 2001 (Arizona), 2003 (Marlins), 2009 (Phillies).

Yankee vs Dodgers in 1981, 1978, 1977, 1963, 1956, 1955, 1953, 1952, 1949, 1947, 1941. Dodgers won in '81, '63, and most famously in '55. Pre 1963 they were in Brooklyn (well 1958 was their first LA season but '63 was the first WS vs the Yankees). Guess a 40+ year gap is long enough. C'mon Dodgers!
Nigel - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#453472) #
FWIW I was actually following the Division Series (multiple) pretty closely because many of the games were so interesting. Its been hard to get interested in this round so far because, well, the games have all been pretty one sided affairs so far.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#453474) #
100% with you Nigel. It’s been a tough watch for the Champion Series, but the division series were great
hypobole - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#453475) #
This from Rosenthal on Kike Hernandez shocked me.

" Yet for all Hernández has accomplished, his return to the Dodgers didn’t look terribly well-conceived when he batted .191 with a .557 OPS before the All-Star break. A phone conversation he had in mid-June with then-White Sox catcher Martín Maldonado, a fellow native of Puerto Rico, helped turn his season around.

Maldonado, then with the White Sox, wanted a scouting report on a Diamondbacks pitcher. But he also sold Hernández on the benefits of wearing glasses. Hernández proceeded to undergo a more thorough eye examination than players typically do in spring training, and learned he had an astigmatism in his right eye. He couldn’t wear contacts because he suffers from another eye condition, pterygium. It took him a few weeks to adjust to glasses, but improved vision led to improved performance, a .274 average and .766 OPS after the break."

I've always thought since eyesight is so crucial to hitting a baseball, teams' eye exams would be as thorough as possible.
John Northey - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#453476) #
Good point hypobole. I've wondered about the people running MLB teams quite often due to stuff like this. Eye exams, basic fitness tests, nutrition - all of these should be 100% automatic at an Olympic athletes level throughout a teams system. Rookie ball players should be getting trained like top notch runners are at the very least. The fact teams for years cheaped out on that stuff for minor leaguers blew my mind. As I mentioned, look at the Olympics - these people are training hard for 4 years with minimal rewards, nowhere near the money MLB has at stake with few exceptions. Yet they do better training than most in the minors and quite a few ML'ers do or did (not sure how good it is getting now that you don't have just ex-players running the show). I suspect in the past it was often guys who were 'in my day we didn't lift weights or eat anything but steak' and expected kids to do the same. They struggled to survive in the minors and thought that was a plus. Spoiler - it wasn't. With proper year round training I suspect a lot of guys who get stuck in the minors would've had a better shot and would've produced a lot more. I remember in the 80's when Kirby Puckett did an offseason workout and built up from 0 HR to 30, from a leadoff hitter who was meh to superstar. I've often wondered how much steroids were involved in his case, but the fact is when guys back then started to do offseason workouts they started producing at levels they never dreamed of - Dante Bichette is another one who I recall having that happen. The Jays said they didn't want guys doing that in the 80's due to muscles 'getting in the way' of proper swings. Sigh - no shock so many on those teams had short careers. Probably the most famous workout freak of the 80's and earlier was Nolan Ryan who I recall seeing a few TV bits on - he did massive leg workouts to reduce the stress on his arm, something well known now but back then was revolutionary.

Today eye exams and laser eye surgery might be a good idea for a lot of players - the better you can see the earlier you can tell what the pitch is and where it is going. Ted Williams has 20/10 vision I think (meaning he could see stuff 20' away as clear as a 20/20 person would see at 10') which helped him a lot. I suspect Vlad has something like that too. So even guys with 20/20 vision should look at using glasses to improve their ability to pick the pitch early. Every bit helps - I suspect overfixing eyesight could easily be a big competitive advantage.
Ducey - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#453477) #
John

Teams cant make their players wear glasses and lift weights any more than your employer can. MLB doesn't have minimum criteria for eyesight or fitness that players have to meet like, say, a police officer might need.

Unfortunately, a lot of these decisions are left to 20 yr old guys whose chief consideration is whether "chicks dig it."
Nigel - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#453478) #
A 20 year old's lack of awareness may well be part of it but the far more likely part is a fear that having an identified vision problem may well negatively impact your employer's perspective on your ability to play. Whether the fear is justified or not is a different issue.
John Northey - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#453479) #
Oh, that is true but doing the tests should be an automatic and making the ability to get the glasses or have the surgery should be made available at teams expense as a way to encourage players to push the envelope. Have a list of guys who have done these things who succeeded as a way of selling it.

These 20 year old's are dreaming of making it big, and if you tell them wearing glasses while playing might help then they could easily go for it. Chicks dig guys who make it and make $$$, they don't dig guys who get stuck in A ball. Schneider might need his prescription enhanced, Danny Jansen also - both had poor years with the bat when they really needed good ones. I recall Rance Mulliniks putting them on mid-career and it helping him, Chris Sabo was a famous glasses guy. I am certain many players got laser eye surgery which carries a big risk (I know one pro golfer who got it done, then had double vision for a long time which cost him big time). Remember, players dug deep into PEDs and still do despite the risk of it ending their career if caught - all for a small advantage.
Eephus - Thursday, October 17 2024 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#453480) #
I’ve been impressed with Will Smith (the catcher obviously not the slap happy actor) and went down a rabbit hole into the 2016 Draft. Holy smokes… that first round… what a ghost town of success (the Blue Jays took TJ Zeuch if you’re curious).

The Dodgers took Smith and Gavin Lux in the first round and supplemental, who together may currently have accumulated more WAR than every other team/players in those rounds combined! (It’s probably not true… but those two sure stand out amongst the others.

I suspect Cole Ragans will have some say, of course.
Gerry - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#453481) #
Thursday was a very enjoyable day of baseball.

That is all.
Magpie - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#453482) #
Was I the only one wondering who on earth is Jhonkensy Noel?
AWeb - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#453483) #
I wasn't watching and turned the game on late, chose the 9th inning over the ongoing dodgers/mets game. Glad I did, great times. Noel looks like an all or nothing guy right now, hits a ton of homers in the minors and quite a few in MLB in limited time. VAguely familiar at best though, at least until last night. Watching the Yankees take a crushing loss is great. Still likely to win the series, they are ahead and all, but I can hope. I find myself rooting for the Dodgers, I think because I'd like to believe that building the best team pays off. Plus the stars on the team are eminently root-able.
AWeb - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#453484) #
Oh, and Noel didn't get any time against the Jays this year, so he was extra invisible to us.
jerjapan - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#453485) #
You only need hear the nickname 'Big Christmas' once before you remember. 
AWeb - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#453487) #
Yeah, Noel and "Big Christmas" are both catnip for fun announcer wordplay, I'm glad that Noel apparently is happy to lean into that one - I get the impression (from hearing about it in basketball) that modern athletes get a veto on nicknames they don't like. I know quite a few older nicknamed players didn't like their nickname. Since I support calling people by their chosen names and pronouns in general, I guess I can't argue against that without being hypocritical, but they definitely help build up athletes as more mythical figures.

Is there a single nicknames on the JAys right now? Baseball Reference seems to have taken them off the player pages, but a few examples (shortened names need not apply) off the list  (https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/baseball-player-nicknames.shtml):

Guerrero - "El K" never heard it, maybe makes sense in translation, or maybe submitted by a disgruntled fan?
Springer = Horhay (George in spanish...naw, that's terrible)
BErrios - The Machine, La Maquina, Orlandito   ...something to work with here. Made every start for 7 years, The Machine is reasonable.
Kirk - Captain Kirk...could get some push and work I guess.
Who would be a reasonable player to get a nickname. Bassitt's general odd vibe seems ripe for something, Gausman (congrats on reaching 100 wins and .500 this year!) maybe?

Other friday distraction, my occasional fascination with the all time K list for batters and how Reggie Jackson (2597) remains in the lead despite being from an entirely different era. I always thought Justin Upton might make it, 1720 Ks at age 30 was pretty primed, but he wasn't good enough to get playing time immediately after that point. Current challengers are Stanton (1963), who is five seasons away, assuming his usual 100-110 games/season. Is he getting 5 seasons more ABs though? I doubt it. He is more likely to become the first 500HR guy with no hall of fame case, though those guys have a way of flaming out before making it in the past.  
Next up is Goldschmidt (1879) - I can't see him getting 5 more seasons of full-time ABs, he looked a little toasty this year already.   
Next is McCutchen (1779) is just a guy with a long career in the modern era who doesn't even strike out that much. If he makes it, he's the new Julio Franco.  I think the current best bet is Bryce Harper (1533), he's signed for 7 more years, which would get him there if he's healthy.




Ducey - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#453488) #
Someone might want to mention to Atkins that the top 2 in K's all time (Reggie, Thome) are in the hall of fame.

You can live with the K's if the player is a bopper.
jerjapan - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#453489) #
Have we ever had a great nickname?  I don't remember a lot for the Jays - Terminator Henke, Crime Dog McGriff, Three-pitch Manny Lee (okay, that last one was just me and my friends).  The Bringer of Rain was cool.  The Shaker Lloyd Moseby wasn't really in use when I started watching regularly in 87. 

Berrios is indeed a Machine.  Captain Kirk, I dunno, not a trekkie.  Bassitt gives me 'The Professor' vibes, but that's more dated that all of them...
Vladdy seems the most likely candidate for an elite nickname.  Anyone got an idea or two? 
DavidtheDeuce - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#453490) #
"Shaker Mo'" was in full force during the first contending period for the team if memory serves. Al "Scoop" Oliver was another good nickname.

Zenyatta Plakata for Vlad?

Ducey - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#453491) #
Vladimir is such a unique name in North America that Vlad or Vladdy likely will stick.

I like Chicken Strip for Stripling.

There has to be some play on Bassett involving a dog other than "Hound".

The criteria for a great nickname is that it fits between the first and last name or is so well known that everyone knows him once you say it. Mordecai Three Fingers Brown is a great one. Terminator is likely the best the Jays have had. WAMCO was great.
Ducey - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#453492) #
Wait, Joey Bats is likely the best.
Chuck - Friday, October 18 2024 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#453493) #
Al "Scoop" Oliver was another good nickname.

That nickname seemed ironic to those of us living in Montreal at the time. He was some kind of terrible with the glove.

Magpie - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#453496) #
the top 2 in K's all time (Reggie, Thome) are in the hall of fame.

I don't think that's why they're in the Hall of Fame.
Evair Montenegro - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#453499) #
This is the explanation on Vlad "El K" nickname:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: “EL K”
When Guerrero was a baby, he kept making the sound “ka,” which is the the Spanish pronunciation of the letter “K.” One of his uncles quickly coined the nickname “El K”, and it’s stuck ever since for the 20-year-old third baseman.

“I never thought I would [have ‘El K’] on a big league jersey,” Guerrero. “But I always wanted it on a shirt that eventually I was going to make for myself.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-players-weekend-nicknames
dalimon5 - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#453500) #
Tigers just poached the Blue Jays farm director Shane Farrell.
AWeb - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#453504) #
Given the farm's relative performance in recent years, is there a reason to worry about his departure? I don't know what a "farm director" does, I suppose.
dalimon5 - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#453505) #
I don't think there's any reason to and I have not heard and do not expect there to be any.
John Northey - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#453506) #
Given the Jays ranking in assorted publications has only gone down since 2019 (he took over in 2020) I wouldn't think his loss is a big one. Checking The Baseball Cube I see our #1 prospect has been Nate Pearson (2020-2021), Gabriel Moreno (2022), and Ricky Tiedemann (2023-2024). Pearson is a flop by any measure. Moreno was used to get Varsho and has been a solid ML catcher (thus a success by any measure), and Tiedemann is looking more and more like Pearson each year - sigh.

2020 saw Jordan Groshans, and Simeon Woods Richardson both in BA top 100, 2021 had Austin Martin, Groshans, SWR, Alejandro Kirk, and Orelvis Martinez make the top 100. 2022 had just Moreno, Pearson, and Martinez, 2023 just Tiedemann. 2024 Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez. Top 30's who made it for at least something
  • 2020: 1-7, 9-11, 13, 16, 17, 19, 21, 24-26, 28 - 19 total made it so far. Just 2 are retired afaik - Victor Mesla & Rikelbin De Castro
  • 2021: 1-9, 12, 15, 16, 19-21, 28 have made it. Some barely. Total of 16.
  • 2022: 1-4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 15, 17, 18, 24, 27, 30 Total of 14.
  • 2023: 2, 4, 5, 9, 15, 17-19. Total of 8. I suspect Tiedemann (#1) would've made it if he had not been hurt this year. Pearson dropped to #9
  • 2024: 2, 5, 7, 8, 12, 22, 23. Total of 7.
25 made it from 2019, 21 from 2018, 20 from 2017 to give an idea of how many get in. 19 from 2010. Then just a top 10 for 1990 and 2000 (9 of 10 both times). To give a historic idea of it, but obviously some of the top 30 from 2020-2024 will still make it in upcoming years.
Eephus - Saturday, October 19 2024 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#453507) #
Can Giancarlo just stop this already. God this Yankees team annoys me.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 06:40 AM EDT (#453508) #
Late to the nickname comments but back in the day there was Andre "The Hawk" Dawson.
Glevin - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#453509) #
Soto is just insane. He's going to get a massive massive contract and he deserves it. Would be shocked if it's not Yankees or Mets but hope Jays make a huge offer. Also, really hope Vlad doesn't see himself as comparable because we'd never sign him then.
soupman - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#453510) #
I doubt he ends up back in the Bronx. Mets, Dodgers are the front runners. Jays seem like the dark horse, and the Yankees might be possible if he fires Boras and agrees to take a discount. I mean, I could see it on the grounds of moving to the Mets might make it a lot harder to walk the streets - there might be a price there...but Boras has historically never considered these things as far as I can tell.
dalimon5 - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#453511) #
"Also, really hope Vlad doesn't see himself as comparable because we'd never sign him then."

Seems like either Shapiro is outsmarting himself or else Guerrero Jr is asking for too much, one or the other but not both. Nobody knows.
85bluejay - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#453512) #
Soto is really interesting - Would be tough for the Yankees to let him go after this season and yet it would be a tremendous coup for the Mets - I see a record deal. I don't expect the Jays to be a serious player even in my dreams.
dalimon5 - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#453513) #
Im expecting Jays to resign Vlad and Bo and make a run at Soto. Get Soto then you cap Vlad. Get them both and you can underpay Bo.
bpoz - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#453514) #
I hope the Jays don't go back into the luxury tax penalty area.
uglyone - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#453515) #
Jays have one chance to sign Soto - offer him the exact same package they were offering Shohei right up front.

But tbh even that won't convince him to come here.
dalimon5 - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#453516) #
If money is the same between Dodgers, NYY, NYM and Jays then taxes arent really an issue as they are all 50% or more. The bigger draw will be who he plays with and Toronto has the biggest attraction with Vlad if he is signed long term.
Katie - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#453517) #
I don't see how Soto doesn't wind up back in the Bronx after being instrumental in helping the Yankees reach, and maybe win, their first World Series in 15 years.

It will be untenable for them not to resign him and most players, with a few exceptions, enjoy being royalty in New York.
dalimon5 - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#453518) #
Disagree. Using this logic for your first point he would have resigned with Washington after winning a world series and getting that huge offer.

As for the second point, I don't think many players will want "Yankee royalty" more than the most amount of money. Soto has sent clear messages to teams that he is goong to test the market and go to the highest bidder. If he wins a world series in NY I dont see him saying "well this 2nd world series was so special I want to stay here now." NYY have a lot of big contracts and the owner may not want to match a 500, 600 or 700 million dollar offer when they are already paying Judge over 300 and have a ton of aging players.

To your point, Judge took a discount to stay with the NYY over the Giants, but thats a choice between two teams. Soto will have more options. Saying he might stay in NY because of x reason other than money is like suggesting Vlad might stay in Toronto for x reason other than money. If Vlad is offered 5 million more to go to Cleveland than Toronto he would go, imho. When he says "I want to stay in Toronto" he means "I want to stay here if I am paid the most I would get anywhere else."

Just my take.
92-93 - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#453519) #
“What I always say to you guys like a broken record: I don't believe I should have to have a $300 million payroll to win a championship.” - Hal Steinbrenner

The Yankees roster is costing them around 350MM this year with the luxury tax. Every dollar added from here is taxed at 110%. Are they willing to stomach the raise Soto is due?
Eephus - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#453520) #
Soto re-signing with the Yankees for a solid decade-plus, combined with another wishy-washy Blue Jays off-season (without a Vlad extension)... just saying I have significantly better ways to spend and direct my dwindling free time and energy towards. I love baseball way too much (still play the damn game multiple times a week in the summer now even into my late 30s despite a serious shoulder and more recent hamstring injury) but at a certain point a team has to give you a reason to care.

That said! I do expect the Jays to do something of significance. If only because it is seriously in their best interest, both from a ticket selling and team quality perspective, to do so. What that is? We will see.    

Ohtani versus Judge (barring an insane Mets comeback) will be interesting for sure. Their starting pitching is a mess but I think I like the Dodgers' chances a little more.
Eephus - Sunday, October 20 2024 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#453521) #
Just to double down on my previous two points: the current Toronto Blue Jays have that late 2000s vibe: a good team when everything breaks right, but when it doesn't (it rarely does) 2024 is what you get. I remember that era far too well and am not eager for said half-measured approach to become the norm again. Not arguing it will or it won't: I am optimistic this front office is smart enough to know that, despite their recent warts I don't think they are complete fools either. 

I like the Dodgers over the Yankees because I just don't think this NY pitching staff is all as great as it's looked. It's sharp when you're shutting down the Royals or the Guardians, two teams with maybe four really good hitters between them. The Dodgers have more. Who is the worst hitter LA has started consistently? Pages? Chris Taylor? Either one probably bats 6th in Cleveland or KC. 

The Dodger pitching does worry me though.  


85bluejay - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#453522) #
The Mets should try to acquire Vlad and sign Soto.
scottt - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#453523) #
The late 2000s Blue Jays were a team on a small budget with a President opposed to long free agent contracts.
They had John McDonald at shortstop.
They overspent on early extensions to Vernon Wells and Alex Rios.
They went for cheap solutions like Joe Inglett, David Eckstein, Matt Stairs.
They spent a bunch on Burnett, but the rotation depended heavily on young guys like Gustavo Chacin, Shawn Marcum, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Josh Towers, David Purcey, Scott Richmond, Brian Tallet, scrabble, etc... 

Springer is still the largest free agent contract in Blue Jays history.
The rotation is anchored by vets in their 30s.
Of course, they have some holes to plug during the winter.

scottt - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#453524) #
The Mets are in a better position to sign Soto than the Yankees.
They didn't do much last winter and played very well down the stretch.

The Yankees can save 17M by dropping Rizzo but they still need to replace him.
Torres walks and save them another 14M. Verdugo was making around 9M.
They will spend more on their pitchers.
bpoz - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#453525) #
Vlad will help any team while he is in his prime. Who will pay him?

Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios and Springer will be paid about $80 million in 2025.Only Springer will be hard to trade. But at the trade deadline none of them was traded. Why not? Possibly because the team wants to compete in 2025.

Shapiro/Atkins realized that 2024 was lost before the AS break. So they had a lot of time to think and come to conclusions, strategy wise, by the trade deadline. Their actions proved that they wanted to get under the Luxury Tax level. They did this by only trading expiring contracts. Did they get any impact players via those trades? Most likely not although J Class and J Bloss both have exciting tools and have had some AAA success.

Shapiro/Atkins did not reveal their plans at the end of season media talk. I expected this.

Shapiro/Atkins/Rogers fully understand the relationship between winning enough and revenue. I do not expect them to explain how much winning is enough.
dalimon5 - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#453526) #
"The Mets should try to acquire Vlad and sign Soto."

The Jays should try to acquire Tucker and sign Soto.

silly on silly.
uglyone - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#453527) #
It's good to see, and it's good for the sport, that the two best teams with the best players match up for the Title.

Would get rid of a lot of garbage management if this happened more often than not.
Ducey - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#453528) #
"Would get rid of a lot of garbage management if this happened more often than not."

Yeah, you need to be a real management genius when you have 5x the budget of the lowest spending team.

I bet Atkins would look a lot smarter if he had the budget of the LAD (+33% = $108M more).

Interesting that the Mets only have $161 M committed for next year. The Dodgers are at $258, the Yanks at $222.

The Jays are at $186M for 2025. They were 9th in spending this year.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#453529) #
It also helps that New York and Los Angeles are two of the biggest markets in baseball which allows them to have big budgets. Of course, if Yankee management is so smart then why haven't they been in the World Series since 2009 ? I'd give more credit to management of a team like Tampa Rays who are often successful despite poor attendance and a shoestring budget.
soupman - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#453530) #
The Yankees already have that committed and almost all to guys over 32. Yikes. Aaron Judge is over there talking about how he used to ask for five bees for a quarter with the rest of the wrinkle ranch in the Bronx.

The 2026 opening day roster for the Yankees will look like this:

Judge - 34 - 40m
Stanton - 36 - 29m
LeMahieu 37 - 15m

Cole - 35 - 36m
Rodon - 33 - 28m
Stroman - 35 - 18m

That's $166 for 6 guys, another $12 on Aaron Hicks who is also over 35. The Yankees are going to be bad soon. Soto should enjoy this run, and leave for the highest bidder. Based on who his agent is, that will be exactly what he does. I find it hard to see how the Yankees are going to spend without moving one of those pieces, and hard to see how they get better by moving them without spending more, thus further hamstringing their ability to re-sign Soto.

The Yankees, as usual seem to have a pool of highly touted prospects that don't pass the most basic sniff test. Their top prospect, I think, is a top 20 MLB guy in Jones who hit .259 with a babip over 400 at age 23 in AA. Not exactly Vlad destroying pitchers as a teenager, is it?

What's the case for Soto wanting to play there because "winning"? What's the case for them being able to spend when Hal went in the media saying he needed to take a discount because the Yanks don't have salary flexibility?

Just get on board the hype train: Future Blue Jay Juan Soto^tm
uglyone - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#453531) #
doesn't really matter whether they're smart or not.

It's generally good for the game if the best strategy to win is "get the best talent".

Money is a separate problem, but bad teams lucking into championships only ensures that the money disparity problem is never addressed properly.
Glevin - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#453532) #
"The 2026 opening day roster for the Yankees will look like this:

Judge - 34 - 40m
Stanton - 36 - 29m
LeMahieu 37 - 15m

Cole - 35 - 36m
Rodon - 33 - 28m
Stroman - 35 - 18m"

Stanton is actually $32M . The biggest problem Yankees have is that Judge, Stanton, Cole, and Rodon are going to cost $130-136M for 3 more years and then $120M in 4 years. If they sign Soto to say, $50M a year, you're spending $185M a year for 5 players. That completely handicaps your ability to do anything else. When Soto and Judge are combining for 20 WAR, maybe it's enough but how often are you going to bet on that happening? I still have them as favourites to get Soto though.
John Northey - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#453533) #
Wow, the Mets do have a ton of payroll space - I suspect they go hard after Soto and anyone else on their wish list. Cot's has them at $188,559,366 right now. The question is do they blow a lot trying to hold onto fan favorite Pete Alonso or do they let the 30 year old head on off and use that cash elsewhere? Tough choices coming this winter for them. FanGraphs has the following Mets as FA - Jose Iglesias (2.5 WAR 2B), Luis Severino (2.1, SP ), Pete Alonso (2.1 1B), Harrison Bader (1.3 CF), Jesse Winker (1.3 OF), Jose Quintana (1.0 SP) and a batch of sub 1's in J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Ryne Stanek, Adrian Houser, Jake Diekman, Omar Narváez, and Shintaro Fujinami. Phew. Lots of 'meh', but also a few solid regulars. Potential holes at 1B, DH, 2B, SP, and CF. The Jays have 2 free agents for comparison (Yarborough and Vogelbach), 8 for the Yankees (Soto the only 2+ WAR guy), Dodgers 7 (Teoscar & Flaherty both over 3 WAR in '24, rest are 1.0 or less).

I doubt the Dodgers get into the Soto game (even they have a budget limit), but they might. The Mets I think need to be seen as the favorites. If Soto was the type to go for less cash the Yankees would have an excellent shot at holding him but I can't imagine he'll say 'yeah, I'll leave a hundred mil on the table to wear pinstripes'. As others said, the Jays best bet might be to come in hot and hard with a massive offer day one and tell him 'sign within a week or we move on' with plan B being attacked while they wait - Santander or Hernandez for LF/DH (or both), chase all relievers who are high end. Do what it takes.
dalimon5 - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#453534) #
I did not realize how much spending room the Mets have. I'll revise my forecast to send Soto to the Mets.

How much lower did the Blue Jays payroll finish for 2024 after the trade off? Anybody know?
Ducey - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#453535) #
Fangraphs has the Jays at $240,427,000. If true that would be unfortunate.

The limit is $237M. If they dont get under they get taxed 50% on overages next year and get hammered on draft picks and International signing money if they sign a player with a QO (like Soto or Sanatander or Teo).

MLBTradeRumours has a post up yesterday saying its too close to call. Wont know until December.
Ducey - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#453536) #
And Atkins hires Popkins - as hitting coach
SK in NJ - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#453537) #
If the Jays do not finish under the luxury tax in 2024, then that would be gross incompetence on their part and a fireable offense. No reason to even be close to it after the season they just had when they could have easily shed more dollars at the deadline rather than holding on to anyone with a pulse who was under team control through 2025. My guess is they will finish under the threshold and the penalties will reset because I can't imagine any FO with common sense paying the luxury tax for a last place team.
Glevin - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#453538) #
If the Jays do not finish under the luxury tax in 2024, then that would be gross incompetence on their part and a fireable offense."

100%. 0 reason for the team not to get under the tax.
John Northey - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#453539) #
Cot's, which I trust more on contracts than anyone else, has the Jays at $234,972,530 for 2024, or $2,027,470 below the magic number of $237 million. They factor in waiver claims, time on roster, etc. As an example of the detail: for IKF they have the Jays paying $1.289 mil next year, and $1 mil this year to Pittsburgh to offset some of his salary. FanGraphs has just $547,515 to Pittsburgh in 2024, and $1.67 mil in 2025. So there are differences.
scottt - Monday, October 21 2024 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#453540) #
Popkins seems to have done OK with the Twins. He was signed for 3 years and they didn't renew his contract.
What matters for 2025 is what bats they add.
Katie - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#453541) #
As for the second point, I don't think many players will want "Yankee royalty" more than the most amount of money. Soto has sent clear messages to teams that he is goong to test the market and go to the highest bidder.

I suppose I should have made it explicit that the Yankees will make him an extremely competitive offer, since he helped them to their first World Series in 15 years. The Yankees aren't going to offer him $350 million and let the Mets offer him $450 million and go across town.

If bidding gets to $600-$700 million, that's different, but if it's in the $400-500 million range, I don't see the Yankees not making that offer. As someone says, if the Jays offered him $700 million with no deferrals, sure, maybe he'd take that, but absent that.... He's not coming to Toronto because they offer him $475 million and the Yankees offer $460 million. One way or another, they'll bridge that gap.

And the reason he turned down the Nationals contract is pretty simple. He was making under $30 million per season per that contract. He will exceed that level comfortably in free agency.

electric carrot - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#453542) #
"Sotto voce" is an Italian term for lowering the volume in music. A phrase helpful for the volume of talk on BB about the nearly 0% chance our beloved team signs Soto?
92-93 - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#453543) #
If Judge at 31 got 9/360, Soto at 26 is going to blow past 500 and really should be getting 600.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#453544) #
This is the lone active thread on da Box. WS does not start until Friday.

My thoughts on the off season:

1) As usual there will be many rumors that will not come true.

2) I expect to end up with a long list of possible 2025 players who have proven very little. Any successes will be surprises to me in that I have lost my prospect high hopes and expectations. Some little to no hope players will "come from nowhere" and be successful. Long list means depth which is an Atkins strength IMO.

3) My personal examples examples for #2. Horowitz living up to my my expectations/hopes. Clement having success was unexpected. D Schneider's failures took me by surprise.

4) Some players I know of like Barger, Leo, Roden, Kasevich and others will both succeed and fail. The successes will be exciting.

5) Buffalo pitchers like Bash, B Eisert, P Schultz had AAA success but I consider them AAAA pitchers sort of like I did B Francis. I was wrong about Francis so who knows. I have always liked Juenger, Danner and Quinones but again who knows.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#453545) #
The way I see it, doing an attempt at Soto is good for the players on the team as is - shows the Jays have the cash and are willing to spend for a super-star. Now, if they do that chase, lose again, and fail to sign Vlad long term then it doesn't matter of course.

So what are the plans this winter for LF?
  1. Soto - obviously the ideal choice.
  2. Anthony Santander - switch hitting Jay killer, 113 wRC+ lifetime, 129 last year at age 29. LF/RF/DH but really best as a DH.
  3. Teoscar Hernández - Entering age 32 season, 134 wRC+ last year, 120 lifetime. A shame they didn't sign him to a 3 year deal last winter.
  4. Tyler O'Neill - leftie masher (152 wRC+ vs LH, 104 vs RH lifetime) 115 wRC+ lifetime, 131 last year at age 29. Meh in LF/RF on defense.
  5. Jurickson Profar - switch hitter had a career year at 31 with a 139, but just a 99 wRC+ lifetime. Poor on defense in LF.
  6. Brent Rooker - trade possibility from the A's, 135 wRC+ lifetime, 164 last year at age 29, just a DH who can sorta play the OF but best to forget the glove (just 102 inning in the field last year). He'd be nice to slot in and forget about. Bats right.
Lots of others out there but these appear to be the best targets. The Jays could get 2 of them with LF/DH both sorta open, especially if Vlad goes to 3B for the most part. Mixing O'Neill with Horwitz at DH/LF/1B might be a nice thing to do with Vlad/Clement sharing 3B/1B/DH so the 4 of them sharing 4 positions with others mixed in (Springer getting DH days, etc.) but ideally with another big bat mixed in (Santander I'd love to steal from Baltimore).
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#453546) #
I think not signing a left fielder who could hit for power was Atkins top blunder last season in my opinion. Instead, he resigned Kiermaier, who offered the same great defense, poor hitting as Varsho. Now maybe the options weren't great last winter but he has a chance to rectify it this offseason.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#453547) #
Agreed 100% Island Boy. I saw KK as a reasonable emergency backup choice, but he was signed December 28, 2023, Teoscar didn't sign until January 12, 2024. I'm guessing Teoscar was being hard nosed on wanting 3 years and Atkins was equally hard on no more than 1 or 2 years factoring in his age and the teams short term needs vs long term budget. In truth a 2 year deal was the ideal situation for the Jays (covers the Vlad/Bo period), 1 or 3 for Teoscar (either quickly back on market or gets the 3 years of security). Now it'll be 3 years ages 32-34 instead of 31-33 if they want him I suspect and for more money (after age 30, and especially 32, each year is a significantly higher likelihood of career collapse).
Ducey - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#453548) #
I doubt that Atkins spent much time chasing Teo, if at all.

They had KK coming off a gold glove with an OPS+ of 103. He signed for $10.5M for a year.

Teo was coming off a 108 OPS+ and strikeout rate of 31% and got $23.5M from LAD.

In retrospect, and perhaps even last winter, it was a poor decision, but I expect their maths didnt like Teo that much more (if at all) than KK.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#453549) #
I am confused and likely annoyed that O & D is not considered separate. I have been considering "if Varsho comes up to bat in the 7th-9th inning (take your pick of inning)" would it be wise or unwise to pinch hit for him? The only player on the bench available that I would use is Kirk because I think he could do it better. Now please consider that Vlad is not on the bench. Bo is playing or on the IL but Springer is on the bench and Voglebach and any inexperienced player like Barger, Leo, Wagner etc...

Please understand that Kirk is not considered as good as Varsho based on WAR and other numbers that I still cannot understand. Unless I am again wrong and Kirk is actually higher ranked by WAR numbers.

I just want to win some more games!! I understand that it could be an insult to Varsho to pinch hit for him so don't do it then. The same like putting Springer lower in the batting order because of some hurt feelings or disrespect.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#453550) #
Back in the day Earl Weaver used Len Sakata to catch Tippy Martinez. Very unusual.

This in reference to my prior post.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#453551) #
bpoz - good point on offense vs defense. Last winter the Jays doubled down on defense. But it was clear that was a poor choice at the time and later. I defended it at the time as the best of a batch of bad options, but checking back I see that they could've signed Teo potentially and had better offense in exchange for defense, but also had the defense as a backup in Lukes and Berroa. Just use Teo as DH or pull for defense late when it is close. Kiermaier we all loved but really was not the right guy either in 2023 or 2024. Plus his 103 OPS+ was clearly a peak, not expected to be repeated. He was going into his age 34 season this year and has been through the wringer with injuries his whole career, to count on him staying above his lifetime OPS+ was foolish if the Jays actually expected that. Teo, on the other hand, had a career low (well, 2019 was a touch lower) OPS+ at 30, unlikely to stay at that level, more likely to improve towards his 120 lifetime figure which on this team obviously would've been a big asset. Many here wanted Profar signed despite a poor 2023 and they clearly had the right idea (134 OPS+ in '24 vs 81 in '23, 98 lifetime) but entering his age 32 season it'd be a poor risk to sign him this winter unless he goes for sub $10 mil imo (thus easy to cut if he goes back to the 80's as in '23 and '21).

When you have a 'WOW' in CF you can give up defense for offense in LF. Yeah, it was nice having Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer out there for defense but it sucked for offense. This year they need a big hitter in LF, screw the defense. Keep Lukes around for 9th inning close games or something (Loperfido showed hope on defense too).
John Northey - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#453552) #
Hmm... hadn't checked Baseball Prospectus in a long time. They have their own WARP system vs WAR for FanGraphs and WAR for BR. They have Kirk #6 at catcher with 2.4 vs FG 9th at 2.8, BR 2.1 (ranking tougher to do there). Vlad #1 at 1B 6.0, FG #1 5.5, BR #1 6.2. Interesting to do a fast check there. BP seems in the middle with those 2 guys, not up to doing more right now but might do a full article on it at some point to help dig into expectations for this winter.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 22 2024 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#453553) #
You can't compare what Washington offered 3 years ago against what Soto will make in free agency now. At the time it was a massive offer. Only Judge was making more from free agency and the amount offered (with 2+ years of control left for Soto) was more than what Trea Turner and Bogaerts had just signed.

If the Mets want Soto they will get him. They have a richer owner, a bigger need and more payroll space.

If Soto gets over 500 million straight up (non deferred) then Ohtani was a bargain at under 500 million (market value after deferrals).
Katie - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#453554) #
You can't compare what Washington offered 3 years ago against what Soto will make in free agency now. At the time it was a massive offer.

At the time of the offer, Soto had four complete seasons in the majors (one was COVID-shortened), which spanned his age 19-22 seasons. He had never finished with an OPS below .920. He had come top 10 in MVP voting three times. In his last two seasons he had finished with an OPS of 1.185 and .999 and finished in the Top 5 of MVP voting each year.

Soto, particularly at that time, was a completely different proposition to Bogaerts or Turner. Bogaerts' highest OPS in his 12-year career is .939. Soto had beat that as a 20-year-old, 21-year-old and 22-year-old at the time of the offer.

Some players would have signed that offer given the value of the contract and it's historic nature. And it was a massive offer from the Nationals. Both of those facts are true. But, it is also easy to see why Soto saw it as an offer he could, and likely will, beat in free agency if he kept producing and stayed healthy, based on rising player salaries and Soto's career production to date. Boras has misread the market before, but I think history will vindicate his judgement for Soto.

85bluejay - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#453555) #
I remember "Fernandomania" like it was yesterday - RIP Fernando Valenzuela, you gave us some magical times - I fell old!
bpoz - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#453556) #
Agreed John N. If Teo had been signed could we have not signed KK and J Turner. Money would be close I think. Maybe better results as well. Bo would still have had a bad year.
scottt - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#453557) #
Teoscar would make a fine DH but he's still trying to get signed as a corner outfield.

KK had a bad year and he was really good in 22.However, it's Bichette and the pen who sunk the team.
At best, they would have had to trade for help at the deadline and they would probably have missed still, like Boston.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#453558) #
Regardless of anything else no one player could've changed 2024 from a failure to a success. Closest would've been Ohtani - Dodgers got 9.1 fWAR from their DH's vs Jays 1.3 = 7.8 win spread. Jays were 12 out of the playoffs so in theory that would've put them within 4 wins. Teoscar was a 3.5 fWAR player vs Kiermaier's 0.4 here = 3.1 spread. So signing both of them instead of Kiermaier/Turner/Vogelbach would've put the Jays within 1 win of the playoffs, in theory. Mix in a healthy normal year from Bo, Romano, and Mayza and the Jays would've been safely into the playoffs.

And if I bought the right ticket I'd have won the lottery and had $70 mil in the bank right now (well, in investments but you get the idea).
scottt - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#453559) #
An MVP type would have turned them from seller to buyer and on a hunt for that last wild card.
That's assuming the MVP pushes bad performers to the bench and not the good ones.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#453560) #
"Boras has misread the market before, but I think history will vindicate his judgement for Soto."

I think the easiest way for me to make my point is to say that this would have been relevant for you or anyone else to say at the time when it was rejected, when increasing salaries were being curtailed. To point it out after the fact...does anyone think Soto will make less than that offer? I don't think so, not in 2024 in hindsight.
Katie - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#453561) #
I think the easiest way for me to make my point is to say that this would have been relevant for you or anyone else to say at the time when it was rejected, when increasing salaries were being curtailed. To point it out after the fact...

It took me less than five minutes Googling to find this article from July 2022 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-juan-soto-available-the-nationals-have-upended-the-trade-market/)

It compares the offer and Soto's AAV during the duration of the proposed contract to the AAVs of players like Verlander, DeGrom, Rendon, Correa.

The article suggests that the offer wasn't a genuine one due to the Lerners intention of selling the team and states, "If [the Nationals] truly wanted to retain Soto, something like ten years and $400 million would get them closer to the mark (and would probably still be a decent value for the team based on our dollars-per-WAR framework)."

It may not have been the prevailing view, but it's disingenuous to pretend no one thought Soto was making a reaosnable calculated gamble.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 23 2024 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#453562) #
Found another article which details why he rejected the Nationals offer - it was heavily back loaded which means the present value was lower. Seems it was very backloaded for the final 6 years, so he wouldn't get the very big bucks until 9 years from when it was signed. Verlander at the time said it would take $500 mil to sign him.

Hmm.... wonder if Vlad wants to have a superstar there with him and has told the Jays that if they sign Soto he'll sign for $x (I'm guessing $300-400 mil over 10+ depending on assorted conditions) but if they fail again like with Ohtani he won't sign at all until next winter. I could see that happening. If they get Bo to sign I'd be 100% shocked - no idea what I'd value him at right now, nor can I imagine the Jays or Bo have any clue what a fair dollar amount would be given his horrid 2024 and how that puts his future value all in flux - both would have a value but odds are it'd be miles apart.
dalimon5 - Thursday, October 24 2024 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#453563) #
Ok, I did not think there was anyone floating 400 million 3 years ago. I do stand corrected! I'm actually really surprised about that. I also didn't know the offer was backloaded.

Glevin - Thursday, October 24 2024 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#453564) #
Nationals definitely tried to lowball Soto. The difference in whether lowball offers work or not seems to be mostly whether the player signed a decent sized deal to begin with. Soto signed for $1.5M which isn't enormous but it's enough to not feel pressure to get money right now. Acuna, on the other hand signed for $100K so it's easy to understand not wanting to/being able to wait to maximize your value.
John Northey - Thursday, October 24 2024 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#453565) #
Which also explains why Vlad and Bo were not candidates for a 'sign them early cheap' deal. Both got significant bonus' to sign, plus both came from families that reached the majors and had cash up the wazoo. Acuna Jr didn't have those advantages thus was a strong candidate for it ($17 mil a year for ages 27-30 with Atlanta able to opt out of the last 2 years for $10 mil if he gets seriously hurt or forgets which end of the bat to use).
bpoz - Friday, October 25 2024 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#453566) #
How about "waves of Latin superstars". Older ones are Vlad, Soto & Acuna. Then the next wave J Rodriguez, Elly De La Cruz and J Chourio.

Would love to see the Jays produce another Latin superstar. But who? Maybe Pinto if he can stay healthy (just turned 22) OR V Arias who just turned 21 or J Clase. Probably not but maybe they can become the next best thing similar to Kirk & Moreno.
The League Championship Series | 108 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.