I thought I'd ignore the regular season, and see what's actually happened in the post-season recently. The thinking has always been that home runs are more important in the post-season - not because more of them are hit, but because it becomes more difficult to string together longer offensive sequences against the caliber of pitching you see in October. Or that you're supposed to see in October, things could be changing.

Anyway, there have been 25 post-season series since 2021 (I'm not counting the two game Wild Card sets.)

The team that hit the most home runs in the series went 18-5-2 (the series wasn't tied, but the two teams had the number of homers.)_

The team that had the most hits in the series went 20-5.

The team that had the fewest strikeouts went 13-12.

Every series winner managed at least one of these accomplishments. Seven teams pulled off all three, with the most Hits and Home Runs, and the fewest Strikeouts.

Twelve teams managed two of the three markers. Seven teams won with the most Hits and the most Home Runs; Four teams won with the most Hits and the fewest Strikeouts; and one team (the Yankees last week against the Royals) pulled off the interesting feat of hitting the most Home Runs while striking out less often.

The 2023 Diamondbacks in the NLCS were the only team to win while being both out-hit and out-homered.

Three teams (Texas 2023 WS, Yankees 2022 ALDS, Houston 2021 ALDS) won while striking out more often and having fewer hits. They hit more home runs.

Two teams (San Diego 2022 NLDS, Atlanta 2021 NLCS) won despite being out-homered and despite striking out more often. They had more hits. Curiously, both teams beat the Dodgers, although I should note that the Dodgers actually matched the Padres in HRs in the 2022 series, only struck out one more time, and had just two fewer hits (and one fewer walk.)

I get your POV there Magpie and I was curious but I suspect in any set of games you'd pick (spring, bad teams vs good, day games, night games, you name it) the team hitting more HR wins the majority of the time. I was more looking for how to predict victory - which is what Atkins needs to do. Is having a good low K team better than a good high HR team? The results were mixed. In MLB figuring out how to win in the playoffs is going to be an ongoing challenge - the Dodgers went for the best of the best across the board, the Rangers won it all with a team that, on paper, shouldn't have had a shot. I know hockey teams plan for the playoffs, as do NBA teams. Regular season and post season success in those sports are very different things. In MLB the post season seems to be a crap shoot right now, but does it have to be?

Indeed, but it may also be the case that what gets you to the post-season may not be what works best in the post-season.

I seem to have this recollection - maybe it was about ten years ago - that there was an emerging consensus that it was absolutely necessary to have pitchers who could provide a whole lot of swing-and-miss in the post-season. (Like getting lots of hits and home runs, it's probably good at all times.) I can't remember why, but at any rate the teams that strike out more hitters in the post-season haven't had much of an advantage there these last few years.

I think most of it comes from the 'success breads imitation' rule.

Arizona beat the damn Yankees in 2001 with Randy Johnson & Curt Schilling so everyone figured that was the key - a couple of power pitchers who could throw 1000 pitches without breaking. Easily said, hard to do. In 2015 the Royals won with a deep pen (also reached in 2014) so everyone then went 'deep pen, that is the trick'. The Yankees streak in late 90's/early 00's and Dodgers today is $$$$ based so few will try (or even could try) to imitate that. Houston cheated - too dangerous to try to imitate. Boston was $$$ plus some luck (8 straight wins in the post season - 2004 - requires lots of that). Texas no one knows how they won. Atlanta was a strong farm, smart deals - hard to duplicate. A's and Tampa never won it all this century, but many tried to do their low budget approach and failed (including the Jays).

The big thing is quality players top to bottom, and a strong system producing more every year. Every team tries to do this but few succeed. Houston has been the best lately (thus 2 titles, '17 and '22), Boston was doing that well for a long time, but just 1 playoff appearance since they won it all in 2018, heck just twice over 500.

Jays had that from 1982-1993 but sadly it didn't last through a change in GM's. Wouldn't be shocked if someday we look back at this period and go 'crap why did they dump Atkins for xyz, he screwed things up horribly'. Remember, things can always be worse, well, until you hit A's and White Sox territory I guess.

Happy BatFlip Day to all who celebrate.

Good pitchers working with a catcher that knows how to get the best out of him is good to have. A strong pen. Good D. An O that can score. A smart manager. Having luck.

All the above have played a role.

Yeah, I was trying to think of a few other items to add in but really, there isn't much that is likely to result in a 'oh crap that is the magic bullet'.  Maybe in 10 years we'll have a better feel for long form MLB playoffs, but right now there just isn't enough data to work with. Decades of 1 round, a few more of 2 rounds, 2 decades of 3 rounds, a few years of 4 rounds.  Teams with stars and scrubs have won, teams with no stars have won, teams with strong starters, teams with strong pens, etc. Hard to know what to look for, or how to measure it (a pen can suddenly get deep in August with call-ups and trades, but not be obvious until the post-season for example).

Kirk & the SPs are good enough. A good defensive C is needed to back up Kirk. The OF D should be good with Varsho. Add some adequate corner OFs with good O. Lots of competition there. Vlad at 3B. 1B should be easier to find. Infield D is probably ok. A strong O will probably be the hardest thing to develop with what we have on hand. The pen just needs at most 2 good FA relievers to add to what we have. J Schneider and his managing help seems to be ok now.

My bet is a few of the kids acquired this past winter will be shipped out to a non-contender like Oakland for help (Brent Rooker the goal, under team control via arbitration for 2025-2027 - Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido, Steward Berroa, Orelvis Martinez, Jonatan Clase, Leo Jimenez, Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz all possible parts in a deal - not all, probably a pick 3 situation, the A's need guys who will be under team control in '28 and beyond for Vegas and Rooker will probably be at his peak value for them right now, I suspect they'll want guys with under 1 year of service time or barely over that).  That'd add the scary bat the Jays want, then comes the pen plus someone for either 3B or 1B depending on Vlad.  I suspect the Jays want to hold onto Jimenez, Horwitz, and Martinez the most.  Clement (team control through 2028) could cover SS if Bo goes until Nimmala is ready.  Many, many moving parts there. Opening day 2025 could either look a LOT like 2024 or it could be something entirely new.

Small sample size and the edges between MLB being small means that luck is going to swamp everything.

The big thing you can change in the playoffs is playing time, so if you have players that get tired easily, the off days in the playoffs means that some player that might only play 65% of your games in the regular season may play 85+% in the playoffs. Similarly a really good SP might play ~20% of the regular season games but might play 35+% of the playoff games. A closer might only get 1 inning a 2-3 times a week might get multiple innings and/or almost every night in the playoffs if the circumstances are right.

That means in the playoffs you'd really want to have a premium on really top pitchers (best starters, best relievers) and your 4/5 SP matter much less than they do in the regular season. Similarly, your extra utility infielder or 4th OF might matter a decent amount in the regular season when they get enough playing time to be a semi-regular player and health backup, but in the playoffs - assuming everyone in front of them is healthy - they might get little to no use.

The last item, to the degree there exist these players, there may be players that feast on mediocre to below average players but struggle against good ones, and those players are going to struggle more in the playoffs compared to the regular season. I.e., maybe there is a hitter who is a mistake hitter and really punishes the pitchers that make mistakes over the plate but struggles with premium pitching. In the regular seasons you'll have 40% of your games against SP4 or SP5 or worse, and half your games will be against non-playoff quality pitching and you'll get lots of opportunities to feast. In the playoffs you'll get much less of that. Similarly, if your super power is taking pitches and working the count, you'll likely face people with better control and fewer balls thrown in the playoffs. In the reverse if you are a pitcher without an out pitch, but that can get less than average strength hitters to chase and strike out on garbage or make weak contact resulting in outs, you might struggle when you are facing the "murderer's row" of a good playoff hitting team. The balance of these things change between the playoffs and the regular season.

I think these things are mostly small though as generally the good players are better against both weak and strong opponents than the not as good players, and the good teams generally are better top to bottom, so you rarely have a stars and scrubs versus the everyone average teams. And to the extent you do, luck and short term variance is going to be the biggest thing anyways.

They have another shortstop in AAA so Jimenez is expendable. Horwitz is a first baseman. Martinez is basically a DH and has just lost a year due to PED use. A DH with 3 years of control would limit playing time for either.
Whatever it takes to make it happen.

I don't know what the A's plans and policy is at the moment because of their move to Vegas. However if they are going to trade players then I think catcher S Langeliers would fetch a V good return. He can be traded to any team not specifically the Jays.

"Guys like Vlad can crank it vs anyone"

Well, Reese McGuire can crank it with the best of them. (Sorry)

When it comes down to guys throwing 99mph, it would seem HR would be more effective than trying to get 3 singles in the same inning.
However, a guy who can hit for average, walk, bunt and steal bases would probably work out fine.
There's just not many guys like that. Most burners who reach seem to have trouble getting on bases.