Weight in with your thoughts here.

It is great that the Jays are not going to go through the process of finding a replacement for Atkins.

Davidi makes the point that with Shapiro's deal expiring next year that it would be tough to bring in a new GM and provide them with any kind of security.

Keeping the GM with the 2nd most playoff appearances of any Jays GM, even if you give AA credit for 2016 or split the credit.

• Gillick: 5: 85-89-91-92-93
• Ash & JPR: 0
• AA: 1: 2015, if you are generous you can give him some credit for '16 as well
• Atkins: 4: 16-20-22-23 or if you are stingy 3 (20-22-23) or super-stingy 22-23 (20 was a freakshow 60 game season)

So, how else to measure?

• 90 win seasons? Gillick 5, Ash/JPR 0, AA 1, Atkins 2
• 3 mil attendance? Gillick 5, Ash/JPR 0, AA 0, Atkins 3 (16/17 you might give partial credit to AA for, but Atkins also lost the big crowds for '21 due to COVID and I suspect it cut them down a bit in '22 as well)
• Top 100 prospects (BA): Gillick 26 (90-94 only), Ash 28, JPR 25, AA 19, Atkins 32
• Rookie of the Year getting votes: Gillick 10, Ash 4, JPR 5, AA 1, Atkins 3 (plus this year)

Not sure how else to measure. In all cases Atkins doesn't come off badly - remember Gillick is a HOF GM who set things up beautifully for Ash who blew it (3 top 10 prospects in 1994, 3 more in top 100).

Am I happy about how this year went, or how the draft has gone? Of course not. But Atkins did restock the farm this summer using expiring contracts (thus no long term cost to the organization). If they want they can resign any of the guys who left outside of Pearson this winter, plus they now are a top 10 pick in the draft. Lots more work to be done, but guaranteed if they sign Soto or Bregman many will see them as a hot ticket again (of course, that is very unlikely but fun to dream of). I expect the Jays to be chasing hard after the upper end free agents or to be pushing hard for a big trade in an effort to regain fan support after this down year, last thing you want is to let it steamroll like 17-18-19 did (from 3 mil in '17 to under 2 mil in '19).

Taking this comment from the last thread:

"Hitters suck, and pitchers are only going to get better. It's time to cut down on the number of pitchers teams can carry."

It might be time to lower the mounds again. 2 benefits:

1) boost offense
2) reduce arm injuries

The Detroit #Tigers 26-Man Wild Card roster combines for $18.8M of 2024 salary.

62 MLB players earned more than that this season on their own.

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 2, 2024

Glad to see the Tigers run. I thought they'd be competitive much sooner, but waves of injuries to their exciting young pitchers, combined with awful FA signings, really hamstrung them.

The Astros lost, so it's a good day.

Fangraphs' 2025 FA Tracker is live. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

There's no excuse for not resolving our LF problems, but unless we do a trade, I feel 3B should be resolved internally, and Vladdy at 3B vs RHP allows opportunity for Wagner at 2B and Horwitz at 1B.

Looking at a "realistic" Jays off-season: I think a power-hitting LF, a "veteran" bat (Goldschmidt?), backup C, two or three RPs is what's most expected.

I'm still of the opinion our starting pitching will be a big risk come the season start (skate where the puck is going), and I hope we at least bring in some interesting names to compete. Soroka, Turnbull, Buehler fit the mold of low-cost, higher ceiling. But I'd love to see us take a run at Fried, one of the most underrated and dependable pitchers in the game.

Heh. Poor Astros. Made the big trade for Kikuchi, gave up 3 very nice prospects, and ended up winning exactly as many playoff games as the Jays did this year - 0, and Kikuchi didn't throw a pitch in those 2 playoff games.

Zero wins also for Baltimore

Gunnar Henderson hit .000 out of the leadoff spot. Ouch. Disappointing series for Baltimore. It will be interesting to see whether they start spending in free agency and trading some of their prospect capital in an effort to get better.

Ragans is a weapon for KC. I think he’ll do well this postseason (he’s obviously off to a strong start).

"Hitters suck, and pitchers are only going to get better. It's time to cut down on the number of pitchers teams can carry."

I wouldn't say the first part is true. Hitters as a group are probably better than they've ever been, like pretty much all players in all sports. It's just that pitchers are even better relatively. Watching the stuff pitchers are featuring it's almost hard to belief hitters actually get hits. It's to the point where it can be detrimental to the entertainment value of the product. I would like to see something done to nerf pitching but I'm not sure what you do. Definitely lowering the mound is a possibility. There's a 13 pitcher limit on rosters now; maybe that should go down to about 11.

So the FA Tracker at FG has 1 OF with over 5 WAR (Soto), 1 in the 4's (Profar), 2 in the 3's (Teoscar & Santander), 1 in the 2's (O'Neill), 5 in the 1's (Bader, Conforto, Winker, Canha, and Kepier), and a ton lower than that. Of the 1 or higher's only Soto is under 30, dead on 30 is Santander and O'Neill. 31/32 (young enough to still maybe have 3 good years left) are Profar, Teoscar, Bader, Conforto, Winker, Kepler. The rest either stink (sub 1 WAR) or are 33+ thus major risks to fall apart (after 32 careers often end fast).

So what to do? Chase Soto but odds are low. Teoscar & Santander & O'Neill would be my next tier to chase. The rest would be 'break in case of emergency in February' (IE: no trades, no other big moves done, need to do something). Profar's track record suggests this was his career year (25-32 is the age most have their big 'wow' year that they never match again) but he is a high risk to go back to the 78 wRC+ he had in '23. From 2018 to now his wRC+ were 107-90-113-87-110-78-139 - I sure wouldn't want to bet my job on his being above 100 for wRC+ in 2025. A $5 mil contract in February is what I'd offer if the Jays can't get anyone better, but someone will bet on him I'm sure (at least to $10 mil or more).

At 3B only Bregman is 2 or better in fWAR at 4.1. Paul DeJong (no way) is at 1.7, Newman 1.4, rest sub 1. So the only way the Jays improve at 3B is Vlad going there or a trade as I'd be surprised if Bregman signs anywhere but Houston or maybe Texas (he resides in Houston year round, was born in New Mexico, went to LSU (Louisiana State University)). He is entering his age 31 season so the only way I see it happening is doing a Springer - 6 year deal when no one else offers more than 5 and Houston goes cheap on a 3 year or something.

1B/DH: Santana (39), Walker (34) both at 3.0, Pete Alonso (30) at 2.1. The rest are 1.2 or less so why bother. I don't see much there to be honest. Alonso easily the best hitter (120's wRC+) but would also cost a lot to sign given his age, bat, being in NY.

Relief Pitchers: 2+: Jeff Hoffman; 1+: Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott (L), Kenley Jansen, Clay Holmes, Carlos Estévez, Aroldis Chapman (scum), Blake Treinen, and 101 others who are sub 1. Always tough to guess who'll be good and who won't going forward in this category, but critical the Jays try to get 2 of the 1+'s or guys they think can be. Jansen is at 447 saves so he'll be after a full-time closer job, Hoffman would be sweet to bring back into the fold (now entering age 32 season) as he has been mostly a setup guy who got 10 saves too, Yates is a full-time closer, Scott flip flops setup/closer so he might be possible but probably wants a full-time closer gig, Holmes has been the Yanks closer, Estevez is a closer too, Treinen a setup man who once was a closer long ago. Chapman I wouldn't touch with a 10' pole other than to stab him (I detest wife beaters).

Others: Over 2: Willy Adames (SS 4.8 29 yrs), Corbin Burnes (SP 3.7 30), Yusei Kikuchi (SP 3.5 34), Max Fried (SP 3.4 31), Jack Flaherty (SP 3.2 29), Andrew Heaney (SP 2.2 34), Luis Severino (SP 2.1 31), Nick Pivetta (SP 2.0 32), Trevor Williams (SP 2.0 33), Yasmani Grandal (C 2.0 36)

Lots of starting pitchers in the 'other' category, Grandal would be nice to mix with Kirk (older, was a great bat once, has played 70-118 games the past 4 years) but odds are he'll be looking for a #1 job, but if he can't get that the Jays might be a solid fit as a time share at C/DH.

I noticed guys with mutual options and very likely to be passed on options (team or player) were not listed and won't be until those are decided on officially. Guys like Kim for example. Kikuchi's family loved it here so there is a chance the Jays could get him back, but I doubt they'll be chasing him down given the starting depth and other needs.

My bet? A hard chase after Soto & Bregman, but losing out. Then going for one of Santander or O'Neill, with Teoscar as a backup plan (unless Vlad pushes hard to bring him back as part of the ask to sign a long term deal. Big push for the top setup relievers, and for others who might be there (David Robertson for example). Hitting backups are irrelevant with Clement, Lukes, Jimenez, and Schneider hanging around, so they'll just chase starters for LF/3B/DH/1B depending on Vlad, how the Jays feel about Horwitz, and if they are very high on some OF prospects (more so than I am, and I'm pro a few but no way I'd leave LF open for them in 2025 if I want to contend). Trades are hard to anticipate, unless a non-contender has a player who is good but they want to clear out for whatever reason (often cash) - thus why I have hope for getting Brent Rooker out of Oakland, not a high hope, but hope, much like I had years ago for Chapman (was very happy on that one) and Tulowitzki years before that (gotta brag about my 2 good calls vs the 1001 bad ones over the years).

To improve the hitter/pitcher mix I figure some of the rule changes I've heard would help - no more openers - starters must go 6, or give up 4+ runs, or throw 100+ pitches, or be hurt (automatic IL stint). Basically the default for pre-2020 starting pitching for the most part (no rule on it, but teams rarely pulled unless those conditions were reached).

For relievers I'd go further than the 3 batter rule - only change between innings or after someone has given up a run or thrown 25+ pitches. That'd help kill the stupid guy comes out for 1 batter then we sit through a pitching change crap that goes on now, and cut back on the sub 1 inning pitchers. To cut down on HBP/wild pitchers make it so a HBP is 2 bases if it hits him in the upper half of his body (real hit, not barely ticking the uniform), head shot gets an automatic review for suspension purposes plus ejection.

More extreme would be stuff like, throw 3+ fastballs in a row and the 3rd and beyond are an automatic ball to clear out one pitch pitchers, but I would much rather not see stuff like that brought in (there is talk of finding ways to cut back on 100+ MPH fastballs).

There is talk of a line that the pitcher cannot go over (or automatic ball) to cut back on the power they get now with extreme leg extension.

After the big success the clock has had on speeding up games I suspect more rule changes will happen to speed it up more and to make it more fun (fewer K's, more hits, more running).

I’ve read in The Athletic that the Cardinals are considering selling off and rebuilding. Maybe the Jays could take Sonny Gray and Arenado’s full salary off their hands?

Arenado has a no trade clause.

I don't want Arenado. Averaging $25M a year for 3 years for a guy who is going to be 34 and is in obvious decline. Gray's contract was structured so that he's very expensive these next two years (at least $32.5 M a year). Would do it if Cardinals ate some money or Cards took Springer plus prospect back but Jays are already spending a ton on starters which makes it tricky.

Tigers winning is exactly why teams just try to get into playoffs. They aren't a good team but the better team in a playoff series probably wins like 53% of the time or something. Just get in.

Yeah, the playoff system is broken without a doubt. Just get in is a good way to be. Current 3 WC system started in 2022.

Playoff Record for 2022/23: 99+ wins: 18-25 record, 90 wins or less: 41-31

This year: favorites 3-5, 2 series won by underdogs, 1 by favorite, 1 tied. Houston & Baltimore are out after just 2 games. O's now 0-5 in the playoffs in the 2020's - sound familiar? Should their GM be fired now? given how people here act about our GM I'd guess if they were Baltimore fans they'd be acting the same.

Right now the playoff system appears to reward the weaker teams that just sneak in. If the Dodgers are knocked out in round 2 then it'll really be a sign (they won 'just' 98, next best was 95 for Philly). I suspect the multiple 100 win teams will not be happening again except by luck. The incentive to build a super-team is gone. Now just get in is the rule. Especially with the great W-L record by 90 or fewer win teams (10 games over 500) vs the poor one by 99+ win teams (7 games under 500) over the past 2 years. And that should weaken the sub 90 win teams more due to double counting - WC series can easily be between two teams with 90 or fewer wins (Detroit/Houston was one of those this year for example).

But that is what fans wanted isn't it? Contenders to the end of the regular season, as few meaningless games as possible. Weaker division champs means even the race for top 2 seeds can be close o the last minute. But MLB needs to make it mean more to be a favorite. Cut down the randomness a bit somehow. I proposed making WC series best of 5 but with 2 double headers to start then a game 5 after if needed, thus whoever wins will be drained (pitching wise) before the next round starts. The odd upset is good, but when 90- win teams are doing better than 99+ win teams there is a problem.

Nice summary John N. You used the word "meaningful". Another good word is "competitive". I think fighting to get in stimulates the competitive juices while just coasting with a safe lead does not. Also NYY, Cleveland, Phil and LAD have been sitting for a few days which IMO means that they have to turn on the competitive juices against a team that has the competitive juices already flowing. Just my thoughts.

"O's now 0-5 in the playoffs in the 2020's - sound familiar? Should their GM be fired now?"

No, because their team has a multitude of young stars who will mature and eventually achieve playoff success. As well, they have a strong farm system to back up the big team, so I'd say their GM is doing pretty well and doesn't need a buddy higher up on the team to save his job.

While they're 0-5, I bet their manager never outsmarted himself by removing a starting pitcher, throwing a strong game, after 3 innings.

Orioles GM at least has one legit elite 101 season to show for his 5yr rebuild. This year was a step back in year 6. Not quite enough to fire him yet, but if they stagnate next year and the roster starts getting expensive, then you betcha his job security will start being questioned.

Ben Nicholson-Smith was on The Fan Morning Show today and said that Mark Shapiro spoke with him after he saw this piece he had written and essentially scolded him for it 😭.

"We had a conversation and he conveyed that he disagreed with my stance."https://t.co/yufeqVuplS

— ⁶ (@Atkins2Alcatraz) October 3, 2024

Weigh in with your thoughts here.

Haven't posted in a few years, just wanted to say that it's good to see some old names and the same great content that I remember from Da Box. The Leafs taught me (painfully) long ago not to invest in a front office that I have zero faith in. I don't mean to re-litigate the FO's effectiveness, but I've been out since they completely botched the transition from Jose, EE, Josh (Merryweather lol) to... whatever followed the next 8 years. I can only chuckle at the predicament they've put themselves in now given the uncertainty around Vlad, and to a lesser extent, Bo. I hope those who are still attending games find joy in the coming seasons. Rogers doesn't seem motivated to address the mediocrity that has followed this group from their Cleveland days.

No, because their team has a multitude of young stars who will mature and eventually achieve playoff success.

Or they might not. Henderson blossomed this year, Rutschman stumbled. Mullins looked like a star in 2021, then plateaued at "good player" in the following years. None of their young position players were great. Burnes is a FA - can they re-sign or replace him? How about Santander?

I'm not saying they can't manage any of these things, but in 2022 the Jays looked pretty loaded with the likes of Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Manoah, etc, and things did not exactly develop smoothly from there.

What do people think about adding Bregman as a FA this off-season? His teammates seem to have the highest regard for him. He could cover third base and slot into the top half of the lineup.

I imagine he would want to know that Vladdy was going to be here for the long haul, though.

Bregman would be a decent add depending on years/dollars. My wish list is

1. Soto - very unlikely, but damn would that be sweet or what?
2. Bregman - lets Vlad stay at 1B and adds a solid bat, but age/demands will be nerve wracking (odds are he'd insist on 6 years to go to Toronto)
3. ummm... Anthony Santander probably, very good bat, steal from a division rival
4. Corbin Burnes would help lock up a killer rotation, expensive but with Bassitt going after 2025 he'd be nice to keep it strong long term
5. Jeff Hoffman - probably the best of the relievers available for the role we need one (setup).

All would want to know if Vlad is here for 2025 or for 2025-2034+ I'm sure. Plus the top 2 and Burnes would all demand a LOT in years and dollars regardless so they should lock in Vlad before things go nuts. Wonder what Vlad is asking for? $350 mil was my initial guess, but once Soto signs I'd be shocked if he didn't demand at least $400 mil.

Bregman has a lot of similarity to Matt Chapman, who the Jays seemed okay to let walk.

Bregman has better plate discipline and less defensive value.

But his last 4 years offensively have been more above average than #1 pick/MVP caliber.

I wouldn't have been happy giving Chapman the 6/150 that the Giants did nor the 7/200+ predicted for Bregman.

Bregman would be nice to have for the next 2, maybe 3 years, then all bets are off.

He is the same age as Springer was when the Jays signed him.

I think most would predict George wont be worth his salary the next two years

Ben Nicholson-Smith was on The Fan Morning Show today and said that Mark Shapiro spoke with him after he saw this piece he had written and essentially scolded him for it 😭.

"We had a conversation and he conveyed that he disagreed with my stance."https://t.co/yufeqVuplS

— ⁶ (@Atkins2Alcatraz) October 3, 2024

Shockingly (shockingly!), the guy with the handle Atkins2Alcatraz didn’t do an accurate job of paraphrasing what BNS said about his conversation with Shapiro. Here’s BNS’s reply to the tweet:

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsons...•1h
Thy for listening on @FAN590 (sportsnet.ca/ 590/morning-sh...), but this isn't what I said.
As I said on air: I wrote about Jays' drafting in July. Afterwards, Mark Shapiro & I spoke. We didn't agree on everything, but to be clear it was respectful in both directions (no scolding 😅)

This off-season could really fall apart if an extension with Vladdy doesn’t happen. Without an extension, the Blue Jays will presumably be left trying to sign lesser FAs who don’t have a better option to play for a preferred team that is medium/long-term contender.

Eh Ben is currying favor for access.... i'm sticking with Atkins2Alcatraz!

Lots of things to think about this offseason.

1. Vlad - sign him or not, play him at 3B or 1B or DH or a mix again
2. Bullpen - what to do? Romano may or may not be the 89% save efficiency guy in 2025, Green & the rest of the pen are all question marks imo. Do you go big and sign a closer, do you sign the best middle guys? Do you wait and see whats left over in January at bargain bin prices?
3. Rotation - are Francis/Rodriguez ready for the 4/5 slots? Who do you get for 6/7/8? Are internal enough (no), can you resign Yarborough, who else is out there you can sign for that role who can be stashed in Buffalo?
4. LF - internal options (Loperfido, Schneider, Clase, Roden, etc.), trades, free agents, what to do?
5. 3B or 1B - depending on Vlad - far easier to get a 1B than a 3B, but who? Clement is there to backup and if Vlad flops at 3B then you end up benching Vlad, Horwitz, or whoever you acquire.
6. 2B - This is a spring battle internally between Wagner (favorite), Schneider, Clement, Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez. Clement & Jimenez are out of options so they must stick in some role.
7. Free Agents - go nuts or go cheap imo - either Soto/Bregman/Burnes or wait it out and grab leftovers at the end. Well, outside of relievers, grab the best if you can there, if they can't get the best ones then wait and take what is left over and hope to get lucky.
8. Trades - find the right hitters/relievers - damn hard to do outside of Tampa.

In the interviews with Shapiro/Atkins they made it clear they value high contact over most else which seems weird to me as generally it has been accepted that isn't critical. Just 2 ML hitters were sub 10% K% - Steven Kwan (damn good, not available) and Luis Arraez (split SD/Miami this year) who was just a 1.1 fWAR guy this year with poor defense at 1B/2B (Tony Gwynn type but poor fielding with meh speed). Alex Bregman was 9th in the majors, Vlad 10th, Soto 30th out of 129 who qualified for the batting title. So the big 2 free agents and Vlad all fit the clubs stated goal of keeping K's down while still hitting well. Near the bottom are Teoscar Hernández & Brent Rooker - there goes those dreams. Anthony Santander is #50 so he is in eyeshot (sub 20% K%). So right now the big bat bet would go to Santander for the Jays to acquire (assuming they are out of the Soto sweepstakes and that Bregman stays in Houston), at least in my opinion with a Teoscar reunion being very, very unlikely.

The playoffs would be broken if the team with the best record always won.

The GM in Baltimore is fine but they don't love the manager much.

The playoffs doesn't reward the weaker teams.
The better teams have home field advantage and a better schedule.
The better teams have the luxury of setting their rotation the way they prefer.

Maybe the better teams can't handle the pressure.
Maybe the managers on the better teams are not as good as the ones on the teams that have to scrape by.
Maybe it's just random and whoever has the hotter players win.

My favourite rule change for boosting the offense and weighting pitcher use towards the starters (which I think we mostly all want) is the very simple "DH is for the starting pitcher only" rule. Pinch hitters or pitchers hitting required after that.  Might naturally shift rosters towards another bench player instead of relievers. And it prioritizes pitchers who go deeper into games over the 5 inning specialists. limiting pitching roster spots is a more straight forward way to do this of course.

The downsides involve risking a DH spot on a pitcher who might get pulled early - Ohtani alone might prevent this rule because no one wants him pulled because a different pitcher stinks. Well, too bad. Play a position or you might not get to hit either. Weakens defense a bit as result too, with DH's needing to find a position. There's good and bad, but I like it anyway.

what if we made it so one hitter got to hit as long as possible (with runners doing the running for him), but the pitchers had to change every at bat.

And I thought my pet idea (make them run the bases clockwise instead of counter-clockwise) was weird!

Pete Alonso just improved his FA negotiating position with that ninth inning blast. What a comeback for the Mets. And what a heartbreaker for the Brewers.

Mets win!!

I think Bichete is the key to the Jays offseason. If they can move him then I would expect a Bregman or more likely an Adames signing. This would be in addition to a power bat signing plus whatever they get back for Bichete. I think this FO will make a bully offer for Soto who will just take that offer to NY or Washington or LAD to sign.

I think this FO is in an unenviable position. My guess is that VGJ is demanding an enormous sum of money for an extension (remember, he’s said that he sees himself as the best player in baseball). The FO can’t or won’t accede to that demand. And Bichette is too risky to sign long-term to a massive contract because of injuries and his poor 2024. Besides, Bichette seems to want to move on to another organization. Bichette had some trade value, but not a lot. The FO isn’t getting a Michael King plus prospects for him.

So the FO is going to enter 2025 as a last-chance season to win with those two players. But the available free agents aren’t going to find that scenario very appealing — other than FAs willing to sign a short-term contract.

And the Blue Jays have few good trade chips to augment the team via trade.

I think the most likely scenario is one where the FO tries to patch as many weaknesses as possible in an effort to make the postseason again in 2025 (probably via WC spot). They will do that by spreading the available funds across multiple players. Then they’ll reassess where they’re at in 2025 without Vladdy and Bichette.

There will be lots of spin along the way about how they want both players back and will engage in contract discussions with them after 2025.

* assess where they’re at after 2025, I mean

My favourite rule change for boosting the offense and weighting pitcher use towards the starters (which I think we mostly all want) is the very simple "DH is for the starting pitcher only" rule. Pinch hitters or pitchers hitting required after that. "

Hate this potential rule change every time it comes up and I don't see the point. Changes like the pitch clock are about making the quality of the game better. These kinds of changes are about being sentimental for a different era of baseball or something. Who cares if a starter goes 6 or 7? Nobody goes to a game and thinks "that 8-2 game was great because the starter went 7 2/3 innings instead of 6 1/3". There are lots of problems here too. A pitcher gets hurt and you now also lose your DH? You're down 5-0 in the second so now not only do you need to come back from 5 runs, you have to do it without your DH? There would be so many more blowouts. Would also mean fewer roster spots for DH types because you can't carry them on your team if you lose them so easily so worse league offense. I also fundamentally don't want to see pitchers bat. Pitchers batting is boring. Pitchers get hurt trying to hit. People have some fantasy of pitchers hitting being fun or creating strategy and maybe that was the case in like 1956. It's been brutal and boring for decades. And for what? To try to make starters throw an extra few pitches?

With the Mets win the current WC format continues to fail. Upsets are fun, but not when they are the norm. 3 of 4 WC went to the road team this year. 2-2 last year, 3-1 for road teams in 2022. So the road teams have won 8 and lost 4 series. That is backwards. Clearly all games at home isn't helping. It'll be interesting to see what MLB does to try to at least balance it out - like I said, upsets can be fun but not when they are the norm.

The rule change I'd like to see is the 'Right to an At Bat' amendment,
i.e., if the batter draws a walk (or hit-by-pitch),
then the manager can choose to send a ghost runner to first
(an insertion, similar to extra innings ghost runner, chosen from previous 4 or 5 slots in the lineup of those not already on base)
and let the batter have a new plate appearance (with fresh 0-0 count).
No limit to how many walks, etc., a batter can draw in one turn.
(If the batter gets an 'at bat', i.e., a ball in play or home run or strikeout, or sacrifices, then have to proceed to the next batter like usual.)
The result would be more plate appearances and at bats for the top batters.

Besides, Bichette seems to want to move on to another organization.

Is that what you got from when he recently spoke on the issue and said his ultimate goal is to play with Vladdy forever and win a championship with the Blue Jays?

At any rate, I agree that signing Bichette now is too risky, he won't be up for signing a contract that reflects the volatility of his projections. But I don't agree with the pessimists who think the front office is too dumb to realise that extending Vlad is imperative. Nor do I believe Vlad is so stubborn that he needs to go to free agency to be convinced that a reasonable contract for him is not bigger than players like Ohtani / Soto / Betts.

In regards to rule changes to reduce the dominance of pitchers, a concept that I think is interesting is to restrict starting pitchers to 1 start per week - or, for the sake of not messing up scheduling, 1 start per 6 games.

It would dilute the pitching pool as teams would be forced to roster 6 starters, and should reduce pitcher injuries as they'd get more rest.

I don't know what rules for relievers would make sense in such an arrangement. In general I'm wary of proposals to reduce the number of roster spots for relievers - the goal of increasing offence should not come at the expense of more pitcher injuries and/or more innings covered by position players pitching.

Might be very awkward to sign Bregman and then move Springer out of lead off.
A big bat in LF is really the number 1 thing.Then if they extend Guerrero, they could move Horwitz for a DH with more power. 

The 6 man rotation is coming - teams have been experimenting with it and I suspect it'll be there very soon. Back in the 60's the 5 man became popular (Cardinals), locked in by the 80's (Jays were one of the last with a 4 man in 82 (40 starts for Clancy, 38 for Stieb & Leal, 23 for Gott, 23 for others - 41 complete games from that crew despite starting every 4 days). Gott was just 22 but had 13 more ML seasons after that. Stieb just 24, but just 12 more seasons after being abused like that (yes, that is a joke - remember, he didn't really pitch until he was 20, from 24-28 he threw 260+ inning each year, his arm blew out at 33, had a 1 year comeback at 40).

What I got of Bichette wanting to play with Vladdy forever once it looked like Vladdy was in line for a big contract is that Bichette will take money from anyone. 
I mean saying you want to play for a certain team while under contract with that team is entirely different for saying it during free agency.

John I like this format as it heavily rewards the top two division winners who have byes. The third division winner is usually in a second tier and this format reflects how the top two teams are on another level from the rest of the teams in the race. If MIL wanted to avoid the circus of the wild card then they shouldn't have cheaped out and traded Burnes. If the Orioles wanted to avoid the circus they could have traded one of their many top prospects for another pitcher who would have helped them finish stronger in the season for number 1 seed. Houston struggled mightily out of the gates and they were punished for it. The most consistent teams with strong trade deadlines who finished strong received the byes. Good for me.

I get the impression Shapiro and Atkins will wait to let Bo and Vlad reach free agency to see that they are not as valuable as they think, then sign them like the NYY did with Judge. A couple of notes...this is a ballsy strategy and also completely insane considering the age of these two players. There's virtually no upside to waiting unless the two players are asking for overpays right now in which case the FO should send out the information that they are "priced out" of the demands.

Thad Levine and Terry Francona were or are available...if only this President in Toronto would drop his facade...he might actually make life easier for himself. Is the goal to make the team as best as possible or make the team as best as possible while nurturing your self-aura and reputation in the industry?

Division winners at an advantage? In theory, but fact?

• 2022: AL: NYY and Astros both won their series (6-2 record combined), Astros won it all; NL: Dodgers & Braves knocked out quickly (2-6 record combined)
• 2023: AL: O's go 0-3, Astros win DS (3-4 record combined), lose CS against WC teams (6-5 record); NL: Dodgers & Atlanta lose going 1-6 combined.

So over 2 years the NL teams with a bye went 3-12 winning 0 of 4 series. The AL teams win 3 of 4 DS, have combined 9-6 record. So the teams with a bye have gone 12-18 in the division series round going 3-5 in series. Kind of the opposite of what was expected.

If the bye was a big advantage then we'd see teams with it winning more than they lose, but we don't see that. The 162 game season is becoming less meaningful every year and I could easily see MLB cutting it back to add more games to the playoffs. Make each round best of 7, have 16 teams get in ala NBA/NHL. Regular season becomes a series of exhibition games before the real games begin.

Terry Francona has signed to manage Cincinnati.

In regards to rule changes to reduce the dominance of pitchers, a concept that I think is interesting is to restrict starting pitchers to 1 start per week - or, for the sake of not messing up scheduling, 1 start per 6 games.

Hm. Haven't heard this idea before! Interesting!

I wonder, though: would that restrict those pitchers from entering other games? Could a team, call them the T.B. Rays... no, that's too obvious... the Tampa Bay R., simply have a different opener every day, then throw their same bulk guys every few days?

I suppose that'd restrict their bullpen something fierce, of course. Cool concept!

To address the edge pitchers seem to have these days, I'd like to start with an automated strike zone and see what that does. I have no data to support this, but it seems that the mistakes that umpires make tend more to favour the pitchers, not the hitters. Forcing the pitchers into the strike zone more should help the hitters.

Lower the mound.

Increase offense, keep pitchers healthier.

Also consistent with maintaining the history of the game. They did it way back in 1969.

Also should bring in robot umps/challenge

or just get rid of the mound completely.

Hitters trying to hit the ball into play will have the biggest impact. Right now way too many are trying to hit home runs and taking their chances that analytics will help them wait out their pitch. The money given to power hitters and flamethrowers has changed how hitters train and approach at bats. There will always be weakened offense with this all or nothing approach.

The TTO method of baseball is dull and what the system encourages. The Jays braintrust talking about contact and the like as being more important suggests to me new rules are coming which will make that a more important skill. Stuff that will deaden the ball and make HR more difficult, or something like that which will make putting the ball in play more important than it has been in decades (pre-Jays WS titles). Will MLB find a way or are Shapiro/Atkins getting ahead of themselves? IMO they are getting ahead of themselves.

But lets check some basics - who had the best k% in 2024 among their hitter? SD, Houston, KC were the sub 20% K% teams - all 3 made the playoffs, Just 3 were 25% or higher - Colorado, Seattle, Boston. Detroit at #8 was the highest K% for playoff teams at 24.3%, Atlanta next at #9 24.0%, Milwaukee at #13, Mets #15 covers the ones in the bottom half of the majors for batters K'ing. Jays were 6th best by this measure - sure didn't help did it?

This theory would suggest being able to get lots of K's as a pitcher is critical - 24%+ are Atlanta, Minhy, Houston, Seattle, SD with Mets, Cleveland, NYY, Phillies and Giants finishing the top 10. Jays were 8th worst. 12th worst was KC - the worst ranking for a playoff team.

In the end it appears this is a weak idea by the Jays management - yeah, it might make a difference in the playoffs but it clearly doesn't affect if you make it there.

Most feel HR are more important - 6 of the top 7 teams in HR made the playoffs (Arizona the exception), 8/9 didn't (Oak/Bos) then comes Houston, SD, Cleveland. Milwuakee was 16th, KC 20th, Detroit 24th. Dead last was the White Sox (shocking I know). Just 4 teams gave up 200 HR - Colorado (duh), Jays, LAA, ChiSox. Kind of surprised the Dodgers were 6th worst at giving up HR (had a lot of pitching injuries - bet they can't wait to get Ohtani on the mound in '25). For best at avoiding HR you get KC, Atlanta, SF, Detroit, Mets as the top 5 - just 1 didn't make the playoffs. So yeah, hitting HR and avoiding giving them up seems to be a far stronger item than avoiding K's.

FYI: going through some stats for fun I saw the Berrios had 21 quality starts this year. Seemed high, so I checked Jays history - Jays record is 27 by Stieb in '85 tied by Key in '87. A bit surprised Clements only had 26 in '97 when he was untouchable it seemed (10.7 fWAR, pitchers triple crown).

Other things that caught my eye - hold leader was Cabrera at 13 after Swanson set the Jays record last year with 29. Amazingly only 3 blown saves led the Jays (Cabrera again along with 4 others). 17 saves to lead the team was the lowest since 2020 (duh), but ignoring that year it goes back to 2018. Sub 20 save leaders? 2011, 2009, 2004, 2003 for this century. It doesn't happen often here.

I think Vlad will go to free agency. What happens after that is the question. Seems like the team doesn’t want to give him FA money and term yet, while Vlad sees himself as Juan Soto even though the performance for most of his career doesn’t match that comparison, so they are at a standstill. Shapiro has no reason, for now, to think about 2026 and beyond. He and Atkins probably prefer making the 2025 team is strong as they can, and then either someone else gets to deal with the aftermath, or if it actually works and 2025 is a success, then they can head into the winter with extensions and a clearer long-term focus.

If the Jays aren’t extending Vlad, but still want to compete, then it puts them in a tough position. It makes 2025 make or break, but they don’t have the farm system to go “all in” (nor can they afford to lose much in the farm), and it makes long term contention a lot harder by not maximizing trade returns for players who may not be around beyond 2025. Seems directionless. I guess we will have more clarity once the off season starts. Their first big move will be interesting.

This and the Snakes and Ladders thread are the 2 active ones at the moment. The Snakes thread can also be used for individual players.

The Jay's FO staff would know a lot about all the players available. Michael Lorenzen for example was a good reliever earlier in his career but chose FA to become a starter in 2022 LAA, 2023 FA to Detroit then traded to Phil, 2024 FA to Texas and traded to KC. All FOs would know if he is a FA or not currently and what he is being paid. We have enough SPs with Bloss in AAA as #6 and Manoah coming back sometime in 2025.

Atkins challenge will be to create a good pen. I don't know how he does that. Probably add 2 solid relievers to Romano, Swanson, Green, Cabrera and Little. Then hope nobody gets hurt.

IMO Bregman will be expensive. So signing him will affect future payroll especially if he declines due to age. I doubt he comes to the Jays. I don't know who the LF big bat is. He could be expensive. I believe payroll including arb players is around $200mil for 2025.

Here is the tricky situation - Both Bo & Vlad being only a year away from free agency will probably want full market value to sign with the Jays and from the Jays perspective if they have to pay full market price then they will likely wait until free agency as the Mets are doing with Alonso.

If memory serves, the Yankees offered Judge a $213.5m extension. He felt they lowballed him and refused the offer. He ended up getting $360m in free agency.

If Cashman had offered, say, an extension in the range of $275m-$300m, he could have saved the team a lot of money.

The same thing might also be true of the Vladdy situation. They can pay him x dollars now, or x + y (bidding war premium) after the 2025 season.

Presumably that's why the Red Sox extended Devers a year before he qualified for free agency.

The other thing is that Judge evidently wanted to re-sign with the Yankees (he could have secured significantly more money by signing with SF). I'm not sure the same is true of Vladdy. If he hits free agency and the Blue Jays offer him (say) $360m, and the Yankees or M's or some other team offers him $400m+, I'm not sure he would choose to stay in Toronto. Especially with the vibes (including front office vibes) being what they currently are.

If Cashman had offered, say, an extension in the range of $275-$300m, he could have saved the team a lot of money.

Only if Judge accepted and we will never know - Maybe it might have caused Judge to ask for even more in free agency. Also if Judge had been injured or had a poor free agent year that would have changed to outcome some.

Back in 1993, I saw a documentary on CBC, "Chasing the Dream", about 3 newly signed Blue Jay prospects: 1 American, 1 Canadian, & 1 Dominican. The only one of note at the time was Shannon Stewart. There was a scene where Devon White meets him, and says to him, "So you're going to take my job?" I remembered that in 1995, when Devo finished the season (& his Jays career) on the IL, and indeed Stewart took over CF briefly. I didn't remember anything about the Canadian and Dominican players until today.

The Toronto Star has a story about that Canadian prospect, Harry Muir. He never got past St Catharines in the Jays system, but he's now the GM of the Chatham-Kent team in the Intercounty League, an architecture student at Fanshawe Collge in London... and pitches for the Fanshawe
Falcons at 52. Many of his teammates are in their teens. His 65mph "fastball" has helped get him a 1.21 ERA.

Pretty interesting story here: https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/once-a-blue-jays-prospect-now-a-52-year-old-college-reliever-how-this-pitcher/article_236dbfbe-81ab-11ef-b0c8-eb4f172ba4ca.html

I found that old CBC doc today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NiOU-zD37s

"Here is the tricky situation - Both Bo & Vlad being only a year away from free agency will probably want full market value to sign with the Jays and from the Jays perspective if they have to pay full market price then they will likely wait until free agency as the Mets are doing with Alonso."

Likely the truth of the situation.

Waiting until after 2025 to address the Vladdy (and Bo) situation would be consistent with this front office's MO of going year to year and reassessing circumstances as they go. (For example, they chose to sign Semien to a one-year deal instead of pursuing the four-year contract that was reportedly discussed that off-season.)

In other words, Shapiro likes to leave his options open. Fair enough. But this could be a risky strategy when it comes to Vladdy. If Vladdy has another 5+ WAR season next year, and other quality organizations show him some love next fall/winter, he might just say -- you know what? I'm outta here. I'm going to go somewhere that really wants me and that has a bright future.

And Alonso isn't really comparable. He's almost 30 and just had a 2.1 WAR season. Vladdy is 25.5 and just had a 5.4 WAR season.

When LAD decided they wanted Betts, they traded for him and then immediately gave him a huge extension. They didn't noodle around and wait for grass to grow under their feet.

Yeah, this front office is a bit addicted to keeping options open. I get the desire to, but sometimes it is better to just make a choice and move forward. That is the Blad situation. For Bo, if their internal scouts/coaches/etc. all feel he will return to form I'd look at a 5/$100-$150 deal - lower end of that for sure, unless expanding the years. Can't see it happening but it certainly wouldn't hurt for them to dig into it with his agent. Vlad I'd be very determined to sign before Soto does, ideally during the playoffs.

These posts ignore the question of the unknown. What if Vladdy wants 500 million? What if Vladdy insists on waiting to see what Soto signs for? Then it doesnt really matter how badly you want him you're not going to get him until he lets you and at his price.

What is the incentive for Vlad to sign one year from free agency? All we know is Vlad has gone on record to say he wants to sign and that he is one of the best players if not the best in baseball. That sounds like a value in dollars between Ohtani and Devers or around 400 million to 500 million, not the 300 or 350 million I had previously thought he would get.

Yes. That's entirely possible. But if the team has no intention of extending Vladdy or Bo, and the team misses the postseason again in 2025, then people are going to see the 2024 trade deadline and the current off-season as a missed opportunity, similar to 2017 and Josh Donaldson -- only much worse. The front office will be seen as having blown their entire window of contention (2021-2025), and also blown their best chance at kickstarting a rebuild by failing to trade their two young stars in a timely way.

It might be viewed as similar to Arte Moreno's stubborn refusal to trade Ohtani away from a bad team, when he could have obtained some serious prospect capital in the year and a half before he departed via free agency.

Eh, trading Bo wasn't an option this year by the end of April I'd say, might be an option by mid-season. Vlad, well, pre-2023 it wasn't an option coming off his worst season but by mid-season he clearly was back to form so someone might have made a solid offer but it'd have tanked attendance and viewership which Rogers would have fought against. Now the pressure is to sign Vlad long term before 2025 starts (I suspect we'll know by March one way or the other). If he doesn't sign and the Jays have a tough winter signing/trading for anyone they might be putting Vlad on the market (along with Bo, Bassitt, Romano, and anyone else who is a free agent post 2025) but I'd suspect they'd wait until mid-season unless blown away by an offer. Teams love having options and these guys would all be very useful for a team in contention mid-season thus the offers would be significant.

Noticed others online now are seeing what I noticed - Brent Rooker (entering age 30 season) is an A, thus available in trade. Entering arbitration the cheap A's will probably entertain offers (just like with Donaldson years ago, and Chapman more recently). He is a DH who can play LF/RF when needed and the past 2 years had an OPS+ of 127 and 165 with 30 and 39 HR but his 170+ K's a year would discourage the Jays brain trust. Still, damn tempting I'm sure depending on price (guessing Horwitz++ - weak at 2B/SS/3B so pre-arb guys like Schneider, Jimenez, Clement would all be tempting to them).

I like the idea of the Blue Jays trading for Rooker. But I question whether they have the trade chips to acquire him. He was one of the most valuable players in the AL this year (5.1 fWAR / 5.6 bWAR) and his 2025 salary will be very low. I imagine multiple teams will be asking about him in trade talks.

It's also worth mentioning that he had surgery after the season "to clean up a forearm extensor injury." So that adds a bit of additional risk to his profile as a possible acquisition.

https://www.mlb.com/news/brent-rooker-has-arm-surgery-after-great-season

Pete Alonso's contract will show Vladdy his floor, but it will also provide some incentive to sign one year from free agency. Guerrero has the higher ceiling, but Alonso was clearly the better player over 2022-2023.

Alonso’s contract will provide some information to Vladdy and the Blue Jays. But not a lot (in my opinion). The team that signs Alonso will be getting his age 30-??? seasons. A Vladdy extension will cover his age 26-??? seasons (or his age 27-??? seasons if you start the clock at free agency after next season). That’s a difference of at least three prime-age seasons. When Vladdy turns 30, Alonso will be in his mid-30s.

I still think Devers, whose 10-year, $313.5m extension started in 2024 in his age-27 season, is probably the best comp out there. Add 5% or so per year for inflation, and you have a reasonable starting point for contract negotiations.

Yes, the poster who first mentioned that here was bang on.

92-93,

On 4 Jan 2023, the same day it was announced that Devers and the Red Sox were finalizing an extension, I wrote on this site (post #425927) that Vladdy (and Bo) seemed "likely to command Devers-like extensions (they may even require more years and dollars)."

Did someone express that same view before I did? If so, free to let me know.

Good points on Devers - his deal via Cot's is...
10 years/$313.5M (2024-33)

• signed extension with Boston 1/11/23
• $20M signing bonus, paid $5M each February, 2023-26 24:$27.5M, 25:$27.5M, 26:$27.5M, 27:$31M, 28:$31M, 29:$31M, 30:$31M, 31:$29M, 32:$29M, 33:$29M
• $2M assignment bonus with trade, paid by receiving club
• Devers to defer $75M in salary: $7.5M annually, paid $3.75M each Feb. 1 and Nov. 30, 10 years after it is earned through 2043 deferrals reduce contract’s average annual value to about $29M

Sadly Vlad will insist on more. 10 years $315 I'd think is a starting point, but ideally they do a 15/$350 knowing the final years will be cash for nothing - basically deferred payments and a way to encourage Vlad at the tail end to hold on for records (3000 hits, 500 HR, etc.). The Favorite Toy has Vlad at a 24% shot at 3000 hits, 10% at 3500 hits, but expected to end with 2449. 22% shot at 500 HR, 6% at 600 with 406 the predicted final total. 35% shot at 1500 RBI, 6% at 2000, 1348 predicted total (no shot yet at 2297, the RBI record held by Hank Aaron).

I really think the Jays need to find a way to get a deal done. Yeah, the final years will suck (just like they would've with Delgado) but Vlad is a HOF talent who should be a lifetime Jay. I think most everyone here agrees on that.

Just noting that although the deal was announced on Jan. 11, 2023, the announcement that the two sides were finalizing an extension was made a week earlier. Per ESPN on Jan. 4, 2023: "Third baseman Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox are finalizing an 11-year, $331 million contract extension, sources told ESPN, a deal that will keep the 26-year-old star from reaching free agency this year and constitutes the longest and largest guarantee ever given by the franchise."

Forget who first mentioned it but a great comp for Vlad is
Harper 13 years/$330M (2019-31)

• signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 2/28/19
• $20M signing bonus paid in two equal installments, 6/1 and 11/1/19
• 19:$10M, 20-28:$26M, 29-31:$22M
• full no-trade protection
• award bonuses:
• $500,000 for MVP ($50,000 for second place, $25,000 for third)
• $100,000 for WS MVP
• $50,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, LCS MVP
• perks: hotel suite on road, right to purchase suite for home games
• at signing, most lucrative contract in MLB history

He was a free agent after his age 25 season, Vlad will be at 26. Harper's lifetime OPS+ as that time was 139 with a peak of 198 (MVP) but just had a 133 and had 3 years in the 110's by that stage (3 in 110's, 2 in 130's, a 156 and that 198. He did play RF, a bit of CF, and some 1B/DH. Largely a negative on defense, but not a big one and sometimes positive. No Gold Gloves though.

Vlad has few similar but Harper is #6 (at 903, a low score - most similar is Eddie Murray at 936 - most players have guys in the 950's and up as similar). Vlad has 2 160's, 1 130's, 2 110's, and a 106 (rookie). He plays 1B and 3B, always a negative but never a big one (BR) and has a Gold Glove somehow. Vlad is clearly a touch lower than Harper but not by a lot. When your #1 comp is a HOF it is a good thing. When your comps are not that comparable it also is a good thing. Murray was the definition of consistent - for ages 25-27 he had exactly a 156 OPS+, then a 157 at 28. Crazy. Ended with 3200 hits and 500 HR and an easy HOF vote (bizarre he only got 85% imo). FYI: the top 10 similar for Murray were all HOF except 2 PED users (Palmeiro and Sheffield) and all with a sub 900 similar score.

I know at least one person has disagreed with me on this, and they may be right (my suggestion is purely speculative), but I wonder whether Shapiro is resistant on some level to the idea of giving Vladdy a monster contract because he wasn't a player acquired by the current front office. Maybe it annoys Shapiro that, after almost a decade, the best player of his Toronto tenure happens to be someone he inherited from Anthopoulos.

Yes, there are all kinds of rational reasons why Shapiro *shouldn't* have that mindset. But maybe he does. People can be irrational, sometimes powerfully so.

I disagreed because it makes zero sense. GMs don't spite themselves because a player was originally signed by someone else 11 years ago. It just doesn't make any sense and I doubt it has happened once in the history of baseball.

If I were to make the case for *not* extending Vladdy, it would go something like this (to be clear, I’m not saying don’t extend him):

Vladdy has had two stellar seasons in the majors. His other seasons have been in the very mediocre to OK range (even in early 2024, when he was struggling, some Bauxites expressed a willingness to see him traded for whatever could be obtained in return). Although he’s been durable in terms of number of games played, he’s had a couple of injury red flags (knee, wrist, plus his overall body soreness throughout the 2023 season). He’s already under control for 2025, so that season is already baked in for the Blue Jays. He likely wants a ton of money (based on his possibly hyperbolic self-assessment as “best player in the game,” let’s guess $400-500 million over 10-12 seasons). Given his body type, he could be at risk for early decline (by way of comparison, Prince Fielder’s last good season occurred at age 28; Eddie Murray, mentioned upthread, was a much leaner player than Vladdy). He makes some mental gaffes and sometimes doesn’t run hard out of the batter’s box. Given his defensive position and speed and possible early decline in those areas, he’ll have to post very strong offensive numbers most years to justify a mammoth contract.

For Vlad's deal - biggest ever is Ohtani at $460.8 mil over 10 years ($700 if you don't discount the deferrals). #2 is Trout $426.5 mil over 12 years, #3 Betts $365 over 12, Judge $360 over 9, Machado $350 over 11. That's all the $350 mil+ deals so far. Soto will sign for more than that this winter (probably in Trout territory). I'd think a $350 mil over how ever many years would be a solid offer to Vlad, but that he wouldn't sign for less than Judge did ($360 mil), but get to #3 all-time $375 mil lets say for 15 years (thus to age 40) and you just might get it done before Soto signs for $400+ by giving his ego the boost from signing the biggest deal for anyone outside of 2 guys who were clearly the best in the game by any measure when they signed. Is that a smart financial move? Probably not. Odds are high that Vlad will not age well due to his size but his Dad was a 130 OPS+ guy at age 33, 119 at 35 (11th in MVP) before ending at 36 with a 98 OPS+ (thought it was a shame the Jays invited him to spring but didn't give him a job the year after - 12 G 358/364/679 in the minors - the 2012 Jays had Bautista, Encarnacion and that was it, the rest of the hitters were sub 100 OPS+ for anyone with 150+ PA).

Do you sign him for $375/15 ($25 mil a year against the tax, but really paying for 10 years $37.5 mil per with the last 5 being to help luxury tax and get him to any number milestones here at the end). Now, he has had 2 years worth that much by WAR with a 3rd being close. It'd be very much against what the Jays management 'shared risk' view says, but Vlad is the type they love - plays multiple positions, doesn't K a lot, hits for a high average and power, takes walks, is a clubhouse leader, plus is loved by fans (even anal retentive pains in the butt ones like here).

I'd be okay to trade Vlad for a Soto (first trade) like package, but this team is not constructed to cope with that subtraction. It would be bad management of assets to do so and the alternative of letting him walk after playing out the season is extremely short sighted. What does that leave? Signing the player, obviously, but Vlad holds all the cards and Shapiro likely does not want to give in since he never has except perhaps for one free agency signing, maybe two if you include Michael Bourne.

Wonder what Vlad would demand on a shorter contract since that is what it seems the crew running the team would want to do. IE: a 5 year $40 per deal? $200 mil total. Seems to high per year given what he has produced in the past, but 5 years would cover his core prime years (26-30) and leave his decline years as someone else's problem or a big headache to be dealt with in 5 years. Just 5 guys have had a $40+ mil avg annual value. $47 would be a new record (after adjusting for deferred money) so 5 years $47 mil per = $235 mil. Y'know, I could see Shapiro/Atkins going for that over a 15 year $350+ mil deal, and I could see Vlad doing that too - his ego is big enough to believe he'd get another $100+ mil deal at 30.

Vladdy just had another career year. He's not doing a short contract.
The Blue Jays are better off with a lower AAV over a longer contract than with a short contract with insane annual pay.

Boston would have been better off just extending Betts.
Machado has done more for the Padres than what his return has done for Baltimore.
The goal there was to reduce payroll and lose 100 games every year.
That's not in play for the Jays.
The Nationals offered Soto 400M and he turned it down.
They still haven't recovered from trading him.
The Nationals have churned a lot of good players.
They chose to spend on pitchers and let position players go.
That hasn't worked well.

The Cardinals are more or less rebuilding.
It seems like Contreras would be available.
He's due 18/18.5/18.5M and he turns 33 next year.
It seems like the Cards would need to eat so money on that to even get a prospect back.

Just like the Jays needed to trade a catcher 2 years ago, they may need to trade a shortstop.
Jimenez and Kasevich are both 23. Bichette has one year left.
Bichette still has lots of trade value. The others have probably little to none.

Prince Fielder’s last good season occurred at age 28; Eddie Murray, mentioned upthread

In terms of body type, Guerrero is almost exactly in the middle between Murray (6-2, 190) and Fielder (5-11, 275.) While I don't think anyone was louder than me warning about Fielder's body type back when he was a free agent, it was something quite unrelated that cut his career short.

Of course, listed weights are often wonderfully imaginative. Post a Comment

There is generally a school of thought on he who gets the best player wins a trade. When you deal a big gun like Soto you thus would always 'lose' a trade but if you won't get anything otherwise (ala this summers Jay trades) then you pretty much have to do it.

• Soto trade #1: for Robert Hassell III (1st round pick who got worse every year), Jarlin Susana (young pitcher still in A+ at 20), CJ Abrams (solid SS 3.4 bWAR each of the past 2 years), MacKenzie Gore (starter with a 100 ERA+ for Wash over 59 starts 303 IP), Luke Voit (94 OPS+ then left via FA), and James Wood (LF with a 122 OPS+ this year in 79 G, very promising at 21)
• Soto trade #2: for Jhony Brito (100 ERA+ in pen over 43 IP this year), Kyle Higashioka (C 101 OPS+ this year, but now a FA), Michael King (139 ERA+ over 30 starts 174 IP 1 more year of control), Drew Thorpe (flipped with 3 other prospects for Dylan Cease 4.2 bWAR over 189 IP 1 more year of control), and Randy Vásquez (84 ERA+ over 98 IP 20 starts, meh, lots of years of control).

Both times he was traded with someone (Josh Bell & Trent Grisham) but neither were worth much at the time of the trade.

For a rebuilding team that deal was ideal for Washington - they got a starting SS, starting LF, #4 starter, and 2 prospects who haven't reached yet and may never. Hard to complain about that. For a contending team I'd say SD did well too. 2 rare deals where both teams came out well in both cases. 5 years from now Washington will probably look to have done the best with the solid years I expect from those prospects, then SD with a few good years from the ones they got plus playoffs, the Yankees will only look good if they resign Soto or win it all this year.

' he who gets the best player wins the trade."

That's what I've always thought and you can look at the Jay's Donaldson and Chapman trades with the A's for confirmation. The Francisco Lindor trade from Cleveland to the Mets is interesting though. The lesser players in the swap balanced out pretty well. Carlos Carrasco pitched 3 seasons for the Mets with one good season and two mediocre ones, and after coming back to Cleveland this year, he was poor and at age 38 he looks done. Amed Rosario was sent to Cleveland and did a decent job for two years before being traded to the Reds for Noah Syndergaard. Two minor leaguers also sent from the Nets are still in A level at age 23 and don't look like prospects.

So it comes down to Lindor and the main piece Cleveland got in return, Andres Gimenez. Initially, it looked pretty good for Cleveland. Gimenez played some games as a rookie in 2021, but in 2022 he broke out, winning a Gold Glove at shortstop and amassing a 7.4 WAR. Meanwhile, Lindor battled injuries his first year and while his second year was better, his WAR was a little over 4. Since then, both have gone in different directions. Gimenez's WAR has gone down and he had 4 this year while Lindor's has increased the last two years to 7 this year.

So it looks like the Mets got the best player in the trade, barring two things. One is that Lindor, who will be 31 in November, is 5 years older than Gimenez so Gimenez might yet have a very good career. The second is that the main goal of every club ( except maybe Colorado and Oakland) is winning, and, specifically, in the playoffs. If either of Cleveland or the Mets win a World Series this year or in the near future, then that might decide who won the trade.

With the firing of Kevin Seitzer, now up to 6 FO's deflecting blame by firing their hitting coaches. Atlanta joins Toronto, Pittsburgh, Miami, Minnesota and Seattle.

The job of the hitting coach is to get hitters to hit.
The job of the FO is to sign and trade players and hire and fire coaches.
Blaming the front office for everything is the ultimate deflection.
That requires absolutely no understanding of any aspect of the game. 

True. But conversely, never blaming the front office for anything, and always finding some excuse or whataboutism to explain away mediocre performance, is another form of deflection.

I remember when the Jays hired Kevin Seitzer as hitting coach before the 2013 season he had a great rep and many expected great things. He was fired after 2014. Very short fuse back then.

[Seitzer] was fired after 2014.

I don't think so. I believe they couldn't agree on a contract, so he went to Atlanta instead.

Good catch Magpie - I was wrong, thought he was fired but nope. He left due to the Jays 1 year rule for coaches at the time.