Article on Sportsnet Ross Atkins to return as Blue Jays GM in 2025 https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/ross-atkins-to-return-as-blue-jays-gm-in-2025/
Article on Sportsnet Ross Atkins to return as Blue Jays GM in 2025 https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/ross-atkins-to-return-as-blue-jays-gm-in-2025/
- Gillick: 5: 85-89-91-92-93
- Ash & JPR: 0
- AA: 1: 2015, if you are generous you can give him some credit for '16 as well
- Atkins: 4: 16-20-22-23 or if you are stingy 3 (20-22-23) or super-stingy 22-23 (20 was a freakshow 60 game season)
- 90 win seasons? Gillick 5, Ash/JPR 0, AA 1, Atkins 2
- 3 mil attendance? Gillick 5, Ash/JPR 0, AA 0, Atkins 3 (16/17 you might give partial credit to AA for, but Atkins also lost the big crowds for '21 due to COVID and I suspect it cut them down a bit in '22 as well)
- Top 100 prospects (BA): Gillick 26 (90-94 only), Ash 28, JPR 25, AA 19, Atkins 32
- Rookie of the Year getting votes: Gillick 10, Ash 4, JPR 5, AA 1, Atkins 3 (plus this year)
Am I happy about how this year went, or how the draft has gone? Of course not. But Atkins did restock the farm this summer using expiring contracts (thus no long term cost to the organization). If they want they can resign any of the guys who left outside of Pearson this winter, plus they now are a top 10 pick in the draft. Lots more work to be done, but guaranteed if they sign Soto or Bregman many will see them as a hot ticket again (of course, that is very unlikely but fun to dream of). I expect the Jays to be chasing hard after the upper end free agents or to be pushing hard for a big trade in an effort to regain fan support after this down year, last thing you want is to let it steamroll like 17-18-19 did (from 3 mil in '17 to under 2 mil in '19).
"Hitters suck, and pitchers are only going to get better. It's time to cut down on the number of pitchers teams can carry."
It might be time to lower the mounds again. 2 benefits:
1) boost offense
2) reduce arm injuries
The Detroit #Tigers 26-Man Wild Card roster combines for $18.8M of 2024 salary.
— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 2, 2024
62 MLB players earned more than that this season on their own.
The Astros lost, so it's a good day.
There's no excuse for not resolving our LF problems, but unless we do a trade, I feel 3B should be resolved internally, and Vladdy at 3B vs RHP allows opportunity for Wagner at 2B and Horwitz at 1B.
Looking at a "realistic" Jays off-season: I think a power-hitting LF, a "veteran" bat (Goldschmidt?), backup C, two or three RPs is what's most expected.
I'm still of the opinion our starting pitching will be a big risk come the season start (skate where the puck is going), and I hope we at least bring in some interesting names to compete. Soroka, Turnbull, Buehler fit the mold of low-cost, higher ceiling. But I'd love to see us take a run at Fried, one of the most underrated and dependable pitchers in the game.
Ragans is a weapon for KC. I think he’ll do well this postseason (he’s obviously off to a strong start).
I wouldn't say the first part is true. Hitters as a group are probably better than they've ever been, like pretty much all players in all sports. It's just that pitchers are even better relatively. Watching the stuff pitchers are featuring it's almost hard to belief hitters actually get hits. It's to the point where it can be detrimental to the entertainment value of the product. I would like to see something done to nerf pitching but I'm not sure what you do. Definitely lowering the mound is a possibility. There's a 13 pitcher limit on rosters now; maybe that should go down to about 11.
So what to do? Chase Soto but odds are low. Teoscar & Santander & O'Neill would be my next tier to chase. The rest would be 'break in case of emergency in February' (IE: no trades, no other big moves done, need to do something). Profar's track record suggests this was his career year (25-32 is the age most have their big 'wow' year that they never match again) but he is a high risk to go back to the 78 wRC+ he had in '23. From 2018 to now his wRC+ were 107-90-113-87-110-78-139 - I sure wouldn't want to bet my job on his being above 100 for wRC+ in 2025. A $5 mil contract in February is what I'd offer if the Jays can't get anyone better, but someone will bet on him I'm sure (at least to $10 mil or more).
At 3B only Bregman is 2 or better in fWAR at 4.1. Paul DeJong (no way) is at 1.7, Newman 1.4, rest sub 1. So the only way the Jays improve at 3B is Vlad going there or a trade as I'd be surprised if Bregman signs anywhere but Houston or maybe Texas (he resides in Houston year round, was born in New Mexico, went to LSU (Louisiana State University)). He is entering his age 31 season so the only way I see it happening is doing a Springer - 6 year deal when no one else offers more than 5 and Houston goes cheap on a 3 year or something.
1B/DH: Santana (39), Walker (34) both at 3.0, Pete Alonso (30) at 2.1. The rest are 1.2 or less so why bother. I don't see much there to be honest. Alonso easily the best hitter (120's wRC+) but would also cost a lot to sign given his age, bat, being in NY.
Relief Pitchers: 2+: Jeff Hoffman; 1+: Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott (L), Kenley Jansen, Clay Holmes, Carlos Estévez, Aroldis Chapman (scum), Blake Treinen, and 101 others who are sub 1. Always tough to guess who'll be good and who won't going forward in this category, but critical the Jays try to get 2 of the 1+'s or guys they think can be. Jansen is at 447 saves so he'll be after a full-time closer job, Hoffman would be sweet to bring back into the fold (now entering age 32 season) as he has been mostly a setup guy who got 10 saves too, Yates is a full-time closer, Scott flip flops setup/closer so he might be possible but probably wants a full-time closer gig, Holmes has been the Yanks closer, Estevez is a closer too, Treinen a setup man who once was a closer long ago. Chapman I wouldn't touch with a 10' pole other than to stab him (I detest wife beaters).
Others: Over 2: Willy Adames (SS 4.8 29 yrs), Corbin Burnes (SP 3.7 30), Yusei Kikuchi (SP 3.5 34), Max Fried (SP 3.4 31), Jack Flaherty (SP 3.2 29), Andrew Heaney (SP 2.2 34), Luis Severino (SP 2.1 31), Nick Pivetta (SP 2.0 32), Trevor Williams (SP 2.0 33), Yasmani Grandal (C 2.0 36)
Lots of starting pitchers in the 'other' category, Grandal would be nice to mix with Kirk (older, was a great bat once, has played 70-118 games the past 4 years) but odds are he'll be looking for a #1 job, but if he can't get that the Jays might be a solid fit as a time share at C/DH.
I noticed guys with mutual options and very likely to be passed on options (team or player) were not listed and won't be until those are decided on officially. Guys like Kim for example. Kikuchi's family loved it here so there is a chance the Jays could get him back, but I doubt they'll be chasing him down given the starting depth and other needs.
My bet? A hard chase after Soto & Bregman, but losing out. Then going for one of Santander or O'Neill, with Teoscar as a backup plan (unless Vlad pushes hard to bring him back as part of the ask to sign a long term deal. Big push for the top setup relievers, and for others who might be there (David Robertson for example). Hitting backups are irrelevant with Clement, Lukes, Jimenez, and Schneider hanging around, so they'll just chase starters for LF/3B/DH/1B depending on Vlad, how the Jays feel about Horwitz, and if they are very high on some OF prospects (more so than I am, and I'm pro a few but no way I'd leave LF open for them in 2025 if I want to contend). Trades are hard to anticipate, unless a non-contender has a player who is good but they want to clear out for whatever reason (often cash) - thus why I have hope for getting Brent Rooker out of Oakland, not a high hope, but hope, much like I had years ago for Chapman (was very happy on that one) and Tulowitzki years before that (gotta brag about my 2 good calls vs the 1001 bad ones over the years).
For relievers I'd go further than the 3 batter rule - only change between innings or after someone has given up a run or thrown 25+ pitches. That'd help kill the stupid guy comes out for 1 batter then we sit through a pitching change crap that goes on now, and cut back on the sub 1 inning pitchers. To cut down on HBP/wild pitchers make it so a HBP is 2 bases if it hits him in the upper half of his body (real hit, not barely ticking the uniform), head shot gets an automatic review for suspension purposes plus ejection.
More extreme would be stuff like, throw 3+ fastballs in a row and the 3rd and beyond are an automatic ball to clear out one pitch pitchers, but I would much rather not see stuff like that brought in (there is talk of finding ways to cut back on 100+ MPH fastballs).
There is talk of a line that the pitcher cannot go over (or automatic ball) to cut back on the power they get now with extreme leg extension.
After the big success the clock has had on speeding up games I suspect more rule changes will happen to speed it up more and to make it more fun (fewer K's, more hits, more running).
Tigers winning is exactly why teams just try to get into playoffs. They aren't a good team but the better team in a playoff series probably wins like 53% of the time or something. Just get in.
Playoff Record for 2022/23: 99+ wins: 18-25 record, 90 wins or less: 41-31
This year: favorites 3-5, 2 series won by underdogs, 1 by favorite, 1 tied. Houston & Baltimore are out after just 2 games. O's now 0-5 in the playoffs in the 2020's - sound familiar? Should their GM be fired now? given how people here act about our GM I'd guess if they were Baltimore fans they'd be acting the same.
Right now the playoff system appears to reward the weaker teams that just sneak in. If the Dodgers are knocked out in round 2 then it'll really be a sign (they won 'just' 98, next best was 95 for Philly). I suspect the multiple 100 win teams will not be happening again except by luck. The incentive to build a super-team is gone. Now just get in is the rule. Especially with the great W-L record by 90 or fewer win teams (10 games over 500) vs the poor one by 99+ win teams (7 games under 500) over the past 2 years. And that should weaken the sub 90 win teams more due to double counting - WC series can easily be between two teams with 90 or fewer wins (Detroit/Houston was one of those this year for example).
But that is what fans wanted isn't it? Contenders to the end of the regular season, as few meaningless games as possible. Weaker division champs means even the race for top 2 seeds can be close o the last minute. But MLB needs to make it mean more to be a favorite. Cut down the randomness a bit somehow. I proposed making WC series best of 5 but with 2 double headers to start then a game 5 after if needed, thus whoever wins will be drained (pitching wise) before the next round starts. The odd upset is good, but when 90- win teams are doing better than 99+ win teams there is a problem.
No, because their team has a multitude of young stars who will mature and eventually achieve playoff success. As well, they have a strong farm system to back up the big team, so I'd say their GM is doing pretty well and doesn't need a buddy higher up on the team to save his job.
While they're 0-5, I bet their manager never outsmarted himself by removing a starting pitcher, throwing a strong game, after 3 innings.
Ben Nicholson-Smith was on The Fan Morning Show today and said that Mark Shapiro spoke with him after he saw this piece he had written and essentially scolded him for it 😭.
— ⁶ (@Atkins2Alcatraz) October 3, 2024
"We had a conversation and he conveyed that he disagreed with my stance."https://t.co/yufeqVuplS
Haven't posted in a few years, just wanted to say that it's good to see some old names and the same great content that I remember from Da Box. The Leafs taught me (painfully) long ago not to invest in a front office that I have zero faith in. I don't mean to re-litigate the FO's effectiveness, but I've been out since they completely botched the transition from Jose, EE, Josh (Merryweather lol) to... whatever followed the next 8 years. I can only chuckle at the predicament they've put themselves in now given the uncertainty around Vlad, and to a lesser extent, Bo. I hope those who are still attending games find joy in the coming seasons. Rogers doesn't seem motivated to address the mediocrity that has followed this group from their Cleveland days.
Or they might not. Henderson blossomed this year, Rutschman stumbled. Mullins looked like a star in 2021, then plateaued at "good player" in the following years. None of their young position players were great. Burnes is a FA - can they re-sign or replace him? How about Santander?
I'm not saying they can't manage any of these things, but in 2022 the Jays looked pretty loaded with the likes of Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Manoah, etc, and things did not exactly develop smoothly from there.
I imagine he would want to know that Vladdy was going to be here for the long haul, though.
- Soto - very unlikely, but damn would that be sweet or what?
- Bregman - lets Vlad stay at 1B and adds a solid bat, but age/demands will be nerve wracking (odds are he'd insist on 6 years to go to Toronto)
- ummm... Anthony Santander probably, very good bat, steal from a division rival
- Corbin Burnes would help lock up a killer rotation, expensive but with Bassitt going after 2025 he'd be nice to keep it strong long term
- Jeff Hoffman - probably the best of the relievers available for the role we need one (setup).
Bregman has better plate discipline and less defensive value.
But his last 4 years offensively have been more above average than #1 pick/MVP caliber.
I wouldn't have been happy giving Chapman the 6/150 that the Giants did nor the 7/200+ predicted for Bregman.
He is the same age as Springer was when the Jays signed him.
I think most would predict George wont be worth his salary the next two years
"We had a conversation and he conveyed that he disagreed with my stance."https://t.co/yufeqVuplS
— ⁶ (@Atkins2Alcatraz) October 3, 2024
Shockingly (shockingly!), the guy with the handle Atkins2Alcatraz didn’t do an accurate job of paraphrasing what BNS said about his conversation with Shapiro. Here’s BNS’s reply to the tweet:
Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsons...•1h
Thy for listening on @FAN590 (sportsnet.ca/ 590/morning-sh...), but this isn't what I said.
As I said on air: I wrote about Jays' drafting in July. Afterwards, Mark Shapiro & I spoke. We didn't agree on everything, but to be clear it was respectful in both directions (no scolding 😅)
- Vlad - sign him or not, play him at 3B or 1B or DH or a mix again
- Bullpen - what to do? Romano may or may not be the 89% save efficiency guy in 2025, Green & the rest of the pen are all question marks imo. Do you go big and sign a closer, do you sign the best middle guys? Do you wait and see whats left over in January at bargain bin prices?
- Rotation - are Francis/Rodriguez ready for the 4/5 slots? Who do you get for 6/7/8? Are internal enough (no), can you resign Yarborough, who else is out there you can sign for that role who can be stashed in Buffalo?
- LF - internal options (Loperfido, Schneider, Clase, Roden, etc.), trades, free agents, what to do?
- 3B or 1B - depending on Vlad - far easier to get a 1B than a 3B, but who? Clement is there to backup and if Vlad flops at 3B then you end up benching Vlad, Horwitz, or whoever you acquire.
- 2B - This is a spring battle internally between Wagner (favorite), Schneider, Clement, Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez. Clement & Jimenez are out of options so they must stick in some role.
- Free Agents - go nuts or go cheap imo - either Soto/Bregman/Burnes or wait it out and grab leftovers at the end. Well, outside of relievers, grab the best if you can there, if they can't get the best ones then wait and take what is left over and hope to get lucky.
- Trades - find the right hitters/relievers - damn hard to do outside of Tampa.
The GM in Baltimore is fine but they don't love the manager much.
The playoffs doesn't reward the weaker teams.
The better teams have home field advantage and a better schedule.
The better teams have the luxury of setting their rotation the way they prefer.
Maybe the better teams can't handle the pressure.
Maybe the managers on the better teams are not as good as the ones on the teams that have to scrape by.
Maybe it's just random and whoever has the hotter players win.
The downsides involve risking a DH spot on a pitcher who might get pulled early - Ohtani alone might prevent this rule because no one wants him pulled because a different pitcher stinks. Well, too bad. Play a position or you might not get to hit either. Weakens defense a bit as result too, with DH's needing to find a position. There's good and bad, but I like it anyway.
So the FO is going to enter 2025 as a last-chance season to win with those two players. But the available free agents aren’t going to find that scenario very appealing — other than FAs willing to sign a short-term contract.
And the Blue Jays have few good trade chips to augment the team via trade.
I think the most likely scenario is one where the FO tries to patch as many weaknesses as possible in an effort to make the postseason again in 2025 (probably via WC spot). They will do that by spreading the available funds across multiple players. Then they’ll reassess where they’re at in 2025 without Vladdy and Bichette.
There will be lots of spin along the way about how they want both players back and will engage in contract discussions with them after 2025.
Hate this potential rule change every time it comes up and I don't see the point. Changes like the pitch clock are about making the quality of the game better. These kinds of changes are about being sentimental for a different era of baseball or something. Who cares if a starter goes 6 or 7? Nobody goes to a game and thinks "that 8-2 game was great because the starter went 7 2/3 innings instead of 6 1/3". There are lots of problems here too. A pitcher gets hurt and you now also lose your DH? You're down 5-0 in the second so now not only do you need to come back from 5 runs, you have to do it without your DH? There would be so many more blowouts. Would also mean fewer roster spots for DH types because you can't carry them on your team if you lose them so easily so worse league offense. I also fundamentally don't want to see pitchers bat. Pitchers batting is boring. Pitchers get hurt trying to hit. People have some fantasy of pitchers hitting being fun or creating strategy and maybe that was the case in like 1956. It's been brutal and boring for decades. And for what? To try to make starters throw an extra few pitches?
i.e., if the batter draws a walk (or hit-by-pitch),
then the manager can choose to send a ghost runner to first
(an insertion, similar to extra innings ghost runner, chosen from previous 4 or 5 slots in the lineup of those not already on base)
and let the batter have a new plate appearance (with fresh 0-0 count).
No limit to how many walks, etc., a batter can draw in one turn.
(If the batter gets an 'at bat', i.e., a ball in play or home run or strikeout, or sacrifices, then have to proceed to the next batter like usual.)
The result would be more plate appearances and at bats for the top batters.
Is that what you got from when he recently spoke on the issue and said his ultimate goal is to play with Vladdy forever and win a championship with the Blue Jays?
At any rate, I agree that signing Bichette now is too risky, he won't be up for signing a contract that reflects the volatility of his projections. But I don't agree with the pessimists who think the front office is too dumb to realise that extending Vlad is imperative. Nor do I believe Vlad is so stubborn that he needs to go to free agency to be convinced that a reasonable contract for him is not bigger than players like Ohtani / Soto / Betts.
It would dilute the pitching pool as teams would be forced to roster 6 starters, and should reduce pitcher injuries as they'd get more rest.
I don't know what rules for relievers would make sense in such an arrangement. In general I'm wary of proposals to reduce the number of roster spots for relievers - the goal of increasing offence should not come at the expense of more pitcher injuries and/or more innings covered by position players pitching.
A big bat in LF is really the number 1 thing.Then if they extend Guerrero, they could move Horwitz for a DH with more power.
I mean saying you want to play for a certain team while under contract with that team is entirely different for saying it during free agency.
I get the impression Shapiro and Atkins will wait to let Bo and Vlad reach free agency to see that they are not as valuable as they think, then sign them like the NYY did with Judge. A couple of notes...this is a ballsy strategy and also completely insane considering the age of these two players. There's virtually no upside to waiting unless the two players are asking for overpays right now in which case the FO should send out the information that they are "priced out" of the demands.
- 2022: AL: NYY and Astros both won their series (6-2 record combined), Astros won it all; NL: Dodgers & Braves knocked out quickly (2-6 record combined)
- 2023: AL: O's go 0-3, Astros win DS (3-4 record combined), lose CS against WC teams (6-5 record); NL: Dodgers & Atlanta lose going 1-6 combined.
If the bye was a big advantage then we'd see teams with it winning more than they lose, but we don't see that. The 162 game season is becoming less meaningful every year and I could easily see MLB cutting it back to add more games to the playoffs. Make each round best of 7, have 16 teams get in ala NBA/NHL. Regular season becomes a series of exhibition games before the real games begin.
In regards to rule changes to reduce the dominance of pitchers, a concept that I think is interesting is to restrict starting pitchers to 1 start per week - or, for the sake of not messing up scheduling, 1 start per 6 games.Hm. Haven't heard this idea before! Interesting!
I wonder, though: would that restrict those pitchers from entering other games? Could a team, call them the T.B. Rays... no, that's too obvious... the Tampa Bay R., simply have a different opener every day, then throw their same bulk guys every few days?
I suppose that'd restrict their bullpen something fierce, of course. Cool concept!
Increase offense, keep pitchers healthier.
Also consistent with maintaining the history of the game. They did it way back in 1969.
Also should bring in robot umps/challenge
But lets check some basics - who had the best k% in 2024 among their hitter? SD, Houston, KC were the sub 20% K% teams - all 3 made the playoffs, Just 3 were 25% or higher - Colorado, Seattle, Boston. Detroit at #8 was the highest K% for playoff teams at 24.3%, Atlanta next at #9 24.0%, Milwaukee at #13, Mets #15 covers the ones in the bottom half of the majors for batters K'ing. Jays were 6th best by this measure - sure didn't help did it?
This theory would suggest being able to get lots of K's as a pitcher is critical - 24%+ are Atlanta, Minhy, Houston, Seattle, SD with Mets, Cleveland, NYY, Phillies and Giants finishing the top 10. Jays were 8th worst. 12th worst was KC - the worst ranking for a playoff team.
In the end it appears this is a weak idea by the Jays management - yeah, it might make a difference in the playoffs but it clearly doesn't affect if you make it there.
Most feel HR are more important - 6 of the top 7 teams in HR made the playoffs (Arizona the exception), 8/9 didn't (Oak/Bos) then comes Houston, SD, Cleveland. Milwuakee was 16th, KC 20th, Detroit 24th. Dead last was the White Sox (shocking I know). Just 4 teams gave up 200 HR - Colorado (duh), Jays, LAA, ChiSox. Kind of surprised the Dodgers were 6th worst at giving up HR (had a lot of pitching injuries - bet they can't wait to get Ohtani on the mound in '25). For best at avoiding HR you get KC, Atlanta, SF, Detroit, Mets as the top 5 - just 1 didn't make the playoffs. So yeah, hitting HR and avoiding giving them up seems to be a far stronger item than avoiding K's.
Other things that caught my eye - hold leader was Cabrera at 13 after Swanson set the Jays record last year with 29. Amazingly only 3 blown saves led the Jays (Cabrera again along with 4 others). 17 saves to lead the team was the lowest since 2020 (duh), but ignoring that year it goes back to 2018. Sub 20 save leaders? 2011, 2009, 2004, 2003 for this century. It doesn't happen often here.
I've noticed that too, and there is in fact data to support it. Those Umpire Score Cards that are published for every game (I see them on twitter and I think there's a site for them) evaluate umpires on ball/strike calls. According to that, many more 'true' balls are called strikes than true strikes are called balls. IOW ump mistakes tend to favour pitchers the vast majority of the time. Automating the zone then should help hitters by forcing pitchers into the zone more.
The minors have seen a boost in offence as well since they started using ASB. So there's another data point.
If the Jays aren’t extending Vlad, but still want to compete, then it puts them in a tough position. It makes 2025 make or break, but they don’t have the farm system to go “all in” (nor can they afford to lose much in the farm), and it makes long term contention a lot harder by not maximizing trade returns for players who may not be around beyond 2025. Seems directionless. I guess we will have more clarity once the off season starts. Their first big move will be interesting.