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You were warned.



It's well known that if you bitch and moan about a team that wins 90 games, you deserve a 74-88 team and three months of meaningless baseball.

That's just karma. I don't make the rules.

So we got what we deserved.

This season was generally so devoid of interest that I found my mind wandering. I did the first of these Report Cards back in 2009, which leaves many years of Blue Jays history unexamined. One day I found myself making notes for a 1977 Report Card, a prospect to chill the blood indeed. That way madness lies, let me shun that. 

So for now, we're stuck with this. You'll notice that this year I'm somewhat obsessed with the random variations on the Balls In Play.

As always, I beg you to remember that these grades are extracted from somewhere in the vicinity of my nether regions. There is not, there never has been, there never will be, anything even remotely scientific about it. That's just the way it goes. I'm in it for the wisecracks.

Here's what they mean, more or less:
 
A  Outstanding (could be in the Awards discussion)
B  Good (might even receive All-Star consideration, who knows)
C  Average (generic regular)
D  Below Average (replacement level, bench part, something like that)
E  Fail (probably belongs in the minors)
F  Epic Fail (may need to think about alternative career paths)

The cutoff, as is my custom, was 50 Plate Appearances for the hitters and 50 Batters Faced for the pitchers. So I have nothing to say about Luis De Los Santos, Orelvis Martinez, Mitch White, Pablo Espino, Wes Parsons, Yerry Rodriguez, Brandon Eisert, Jose Cuas, Luis Frias, Jonatan Clase, Dillon Tate, Tyler Heineman, Easton Lucas, Brett de Geus, Nick Robertson. Lucky for them, and lucky for me as well. There are only so many ways one can say "this guy stunk, " which most of them did.

Non-Players

John Schneider  D+

I don't think any of this was John Schneider's fault. He didn't do anything to fix it, but I don't know that any of what bedevilled this team was fixable. I think Schneider did a decent job of trying to get something useful out of a season that was lost before the All-Star Break. (Not as good a job as A.J. Hinch did, of course.) This team is loaded with players who started games at different positions - Guerrero, Horwitz, Barger, Schneider - as well as the usual multi-position infielders and outfielders all teams carry. While I'm not sold on the overall wisdom of this approach - I think players play better when they have one job to do and know what it is - in the day of the four man bench, one of whom has to be a catcher, all that versatility is obviously useful. Schneider seemed quite comfortable inventing new lineups with different people in different positions every day. Not all managers can cope with this sort of thing. Schneider was flexible, inventive, and willing to try things out. It's one of the things you can do in a season like this. Cito Gaston would have lost interest and checked out mentally by the All-Star Break.

Ross Atkins D-
Chris Bassitt wondered at one point why fans were letting the players off the hook - "they all want to blame Ross, I don't get it." Well, let me explain. Your modern fan is very well aware that he (or she) can't play the game as well as the pros who do, but quite firmly believes he (or she) is more than capable of Running the Show. (Back in the day, fans were certain they could do a better job than the field manager. We've promoted ourselves to the front office.) So that's why, Chris. When Atkins' boss was discussing the disappointment of 2024 back in August, there were two things he especially singled out. The first thing he mentioned was the bullpen because... DUH. (How could he not?) Atkins, who has successfully managed bullpen patch jobs before, completely failed to address it, for whatever reason. (Sometimes it can't be done, but sometimes it's not worth doing.) The other thing Shapiro mentioned was the gap that emerged between what they expected to get from the players, and what they actually received. It was reasonable to expect George Springer's general decline to continue, but no one expected this kind of season from him. And in no universe could anyone have expected Bo Bichette to play as badly as he did. I don't think those things can be blamed on the GM. Atkins did the responsible thing at the deadline, getting rid of everyone about to hit the market for whatever they could get back. In the final two months the team got a first peek at how lots of people who weren't at all expected to be part of the 2024 team looked in a major league uniform. This was useful, it was the right thing to do, and it was depressing as hell. I absolutely believe this team can be back in the fight in 2025, but Atkins has a fair bit of work to in the meantime. That's if he's still the one doing the work, of course, but I expect he'll be back.

Players

Vladimir Guerrero Jr A
Ecce Homo! I think that this, finally, is the guy he was meant to be (the sub-title of Nietzsche's very strange book is How One Becomes What One Is.) I suspect the 48 HRs back in 2021 led him astray - as I said around this time last year, he's not really a home run hitter. He doesn't have that kind of stroke, and trying to be a home run hitter - which he may have believed his team needed from him - messes up his game. He's a different kind of hitter. He's so strong, and he hits the ball so hard, the home runs are going to happen anyway. There were lots of other things I liked about his season, things I hadn't seen from him before. He's growing from a boy into a man, accepting and embracing the burden of his talent and what he means to the team.

Jose Berrios B
I wrote a bit about Berrios near the end of the season. He was not really at the top of his game this year, despite the 16 Wins (career high) and the 3.60 ERA (only 3.52 in 2021 was better.)  In some ways, his work this year resembled his rather ugly 2022 season. But Berrios was very fortunate on what happened to the Balls In Play this year (.258) , which is the exact opposite of what happened two years ago (.329). The two season are almost the exact same distance from his established career mark (.291), just in opposite directions. He actually reminds me of Buehrle sometimes - he does everything a pitcher is supposed  to do. He holds runners, he fields his position, he never misses a start. And it remains true that the Toronto Blue Jays have been more successful when Jose Berrios takes the mound than any other long-term (more than three years) starter in franchise history. You have to like that. It's also true that he and his team lost both games as soon as I pointed it out. My bad. Sorry, Jose.

Chad Green B
He was supposed to be a depth reliever behind Romano, Swanson, Garcia, and Mayza, especially after missing six weeks early on. Instead he ended up the last man standing, inherited the job of Closer, and did an outstanding job until the calendar turned to September. In just five games over two weeks, he allowed more runs than he'd allowed all season to that point. It's possible he simply ran out of gas - he hadn't pitched a full season since 2021, and it's not like his manager had a lot of other options. The three Losses and the three Blown Saves still happened, even if the team wasn't playing for anything by then, and he is accordingly being punished here by losing the A grade I had been all set to give him.

Bowden Francis B
Mike Green was always a believer. Me, I jeered and mocked and spoke Francis' name in the same breath as such useless ne'er do wells as Zach Pop. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. (When I say, as I often do, that nobody knows anything I am not excluding myself.) Anyway, Francis' first two starts back in April were so awful that they poisoned his numbers for a long time after. It seems extremely unlikely that he's destined to be the best pitcher in the AL - in his 9 starts over the last two months, the opposition hit .125 on their Balls in Play, and I can guarantee that isn't going to continue. But I'd still rather have him going forward than Kikuchi.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa B
Traded to Pittsburgh. He's always been a solid pro, but the Blue Jays got very lucky with him, as he had never swung the bat anywhere near as well as he did during his four months in Toronto.

Spencer Horwitz B
A weird player. One hates to declare a young player is only fit to be a Designated Hitter, but what are you going to do? You want to get that bat in the lineup. But I don't like him at first base - I noticed numerous plays Guerrero could have made that Horwitz simply couldn't because he's so small. He's also godawful slow, too slow for the outfield, and he doesn't have the arm for third base. He actually started more games at second base than anyone else on the 2024 Jays, but I don't think that's where his future lies, either. But you want to get that bat in the lineup.

Yimi Garcia B-
Was having the best season of his career before a sore elbow shelved him for a month. Traded to Seattle at the deadline, where he pitched well until the elbow began barking at him again, ending his season in mid-August. The Mariners got nine innings out of him, and the Blue Jays will get whatever Jonatan Clase amounts to, if anything.

Alejandro Kirk' B-
I'm sure they'll give the Gold Glove to someone else, but the fat kid deserves serious consideration. Kirk nailed 31% of potential base stealers (in a year when the MLB average was 21%  and Will Smith of the Dodgers was the only MLB catcher who played as much as Kirk who could top that. Seattle was the only AL team that allowed fewer Wild Pitches and Passed Balls. His bat has failed to develop as people might have hoped, but I warned you about that, didn't I? He's a catcher, they don't develop as hitters, and I think his 2022 season was a bit of a fluke anyway. I would like to see a little bit more power - double digit homers, say - but this is just fine.

Ryan Yarbrough B-
A throwback, a LH finesse pitcher whose fastball doesn't break glass but someone who hits his spots and simply knows what he's doing. (So many of them don't.) He became the guy who provides a couple of innings of relief and keeps you in the game when the team is losing. That was Trevor Richards' old job, and Yarbrough was better than Richards.

Will Wagner B-
We need the numbers. The game is so complicated, the margins are so fine, that we need to count everything that happens and calculate things to multiple decimal points just to begin making distinctions between individuals. Nevertheless, as a wise Yogi once said, you can observe a lot by watching. I believed David Cooper was a better hitting prospect than Travis Snider, a conclusion based entirely on watching the two of them hit. (And I was right, too!) For much the same reason I believe Will Wagner is a major league hitter. I believe in that swing, so short, so quick, so compact. Almost slump-proof. (The first guy I thought of after seeing him hit was Paul Molitor. I do get carried away sometimes.) The numbers do tell us that he's hit everywhere he's gone (the one slight exception was his first full year in pro ball with a wooden bat.) He's probably not going to be a great second baseman, but if you hit enough (and your pitchers strike out enough guys) no one will care.

Nathan Lukes B-
He can hit, but the game simply doesn't have much use for players like this anymore. He's an outfielder who hits for a good average but doesn't do much else. He doesn't have any power and he doesn't have outstanding speed, and these days you need to hit around .320 to get away with that combination.  He might make next year's team as the fourth outfielder, but only if: a) no outside upgrades are made, and b) the team decides just one of Clase, Loperfido, Roden et.al is making the 2025 team. Could happen.

Kevin Gausman C+
He was a solid, adequate starting pitcher - it's just that the team needs a little bit more from him. Even so, it's not apparent at first glance what was so different about his work this year. The strikeouts were down quite a bit, but the stuff he actually allowed  - the walks, hits, and home runs - were all pretty close to the year before. The biggest difference I can see is in the results when men were on base - in 2023, he was really good (.218/.306/.311). This year he wasn't nearly as sharp (.258/.324//.437). For the most part, Gausman functions a little like Trevor Richards, basically a two pitch guy with that splitter in place of Richards' change-up. The main difference is that Gausman has a genuine elite fastball to go with his off-speed pitch. Still, the recipe can get predictable, and because Gausman like to throw his heater up in the zone, the hitters learn to lay off anything down in the zone, because they can be confident that it's going to break out of the zone. (Greg Maddux once said he couldn't even throw a change-up until he'd established that he could throw a low fastball for a strike.) Gausman understands all this of course, and he's begun trying to move his fastball around a little and mixing in the occasional slider. You never stop learning.

Alek Manoah C
I absolutely believe that the Manoah of 2021-22 is coming back. I don't want to count on it happening next August, though it might. But I am confident. It was his penultimate start of 2024 that sold me. The two preceding starts, in each of which he worked seven innings without allowing a single earned run, were pretty good but anyone can have a good game. Or two. No, it was the six runs he allowed in 4.2 against Detroit on May 24 that convinced me. For me, it was his Roy Halladay Game - that first game back from the minors in 2001, when Doc allowed 6 runs in 2.1, and in the process completely made a believer out of me.

Ryan Burr C
I assume he has at least earned a chance to compete for a job in the actual major league bullpen this team hopes to assemble for 2025. He hadn't struck out hitters this often since he was a wee tyke at Arizona State, and he also began to get the bases on balls under control.

Chris Bassitt C
He's still the same guy he's always been. He still gets his strikeouts, he still keeps the ball in the yard. The bases on balls were up quite a bit but his biggest problem was the opposition hitting an unsightly .335 on their Balls In Play - the previous high figure since he became a rotation starter was .282 with the 2022 Mets. So I suspect it's probably just random Bad Luck, unless the defense behind him isn't quite as elite as everyone believes it to be.

Ernie Clement C
He was the nearest thing this team had to a regular third baseman, which doesn't seem ideal to me. He's certainly a useful guy to have around - he's got some speed, he can competently handle several infield spots, and he can chip in with the bat. He did seem to have an unfortunate knack for messing up - an untimely error, a base running blunder - at the most inconvenient times, but that's probably just my very unscientific and very subjective impression. But here's an objective truth - it's really hard to be a positive offensive contributor when you hit into a double play as often as you draw a walk

Daulton Varsho C
A wonderful outfielder, of course. He's always going to struggle to stay above the Mendoza Line, for the same reasons it was a struggle for Cavan Biggio - he strikes out a lot, and he hits everything in the air. But Varsho doesn't strike out quite as often as Biggio and he gets a few more balls on the ground, where they have a chance to find a hole. Best of all, he hits a few more home runs.

Brendon Little C
You can certainly do worse, as the Blue Jays proved over and over this past season - I think he was better than Cabrera (not to mention Mayza,) That's a pretty low bar, but he did clear it. Still, you need to do better and the fact that Burr and Little were among the team's better relief options by the end of 2024 confuses and frightens me.

Yusei Kikuchi C
Traded to Houston. A weird pitcher. No Jays starter struck out hitters more frequently and only Bowden Francis walked them less often. But Kikuchi gave up 130 Hits in just 115.2 IP, and the opposition was often able to bunch them in to productive groups. I'm sure some of it was the random ill luck of the Balls In Play finding holes, but I never found it possible to trust him for a single moment. He's really fun, really likeable, and  I wish him well wherever he ends up. But I hope it's not here.

Genesis Cabrera C
He led the team in relief appearances and innings, and there was little to like about it - too many hits, too many homers, too many walks, not many strikeouts. His success, such as it was, was mostly done with mirrors.

Justin Turner C-
Traded to Seattle, and he hit quite a bit better for the Mariners than he did here. Can't play the field anymore, and while he can still hit a little - and that little would actually be quite splendid if he played a key defensive position - one really wants more offense from a guy who provides nothing else.

Trevor Richards C-
He actually pitched very well for the Blue Jays for three months, and he was only here for four. He was probably overworked, what with the rest of the bullpen crumbling around him, and he lost the plot sometime in July. Traded to Minnesota, but had some control issues there and was DFA'd after 10 appearances. He accepted his minor league assignment, ended the season on the temporarily inactive list, and will probably have to settle for a minor league deal next spring. I've always liked him, but I think I'll pass. As we all know by now, Richards is a one-trick pony. Granted, destroying the hitter's timing is one of the game's best, most fundamental tricks. But he's basically a con man, and no con man can keep working in the same town very long. My uncle, who was an actual honest-to-goodness con artist, explained that "you leave your face everywhere you go." I think AL hitters have seen this face often enough that they're wise to the con.

Danny Jansen D+
Traded to Boston, where he made a little history and may have generated the weirdest Game Log bb-ref.com has ever had to produce. (And that suspended game produced plenty of weird Game Logs, with guys listed as being traded to the Jays for a day, traded back to their original team, and then traded to the Jays for keeps later on.) Anyway, I think everyone assumes that the Red Sox will try to keep him, and everyone assumes that Jansen must enjoy aiming at that Green Monster. Maybe they will, and maybe he does - but he's actually never hit very well in Fenway Park (he likes Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards much better), and the Red Sox already have an established number one catcher. I assume he'll be looking for his best chance to be someone's number one catcher - there's bound to be someone, surely - but that wouldn't be either Boston or Toronto. And you probably shouldn't hit .205/.309/.349 when you're heading into free agency.

Yariel Rodriguez D+
You can certainly see what they like about him - and they've certainly made a real commitment - but this was very much a Year of Adjustment, a period of transition. They clearly expect him to be a starting pitcher, but... nibble, nibble, nibble. He could still end up in next year's bullpen, if the other four hold up and Manoah comes back strong. He may have to end up there - at the moment it simply takes him too many pitches to get through his innings. Throw strikes - Babe Ruth is still dead.

George Springer D+
Since 2016, Springer had played at least 100 games in eight seasons. Here's his BABiP in those eight seasons: .342, .317, .297, .303, .305, .285, .291, .244. Yeah, I think what happened to his balls in play this year was just plain weird. Springer came into this season with a career mark of exactly .300, and if his batted ball luck comes back to something reasonably close to normal - and it should - he'll be just fine. He still runs well, he still has some pop, he still takes a walk. I expect him to bounce back with something like his 2018 season in Houston: .265/.346/.434. That's not a great player, but we weren't expecting that in his age 35 season.

Tommy Nance D+
An enormous RH who's always had trouble with the walks at the major league level. Made some progress on that front while he was here, but stopped striking people out.

Bo Bichette D
Of course he seemed miserable. He was having a terrible year and he kept getting hurt. You'd be miserable too. Bichette is one of those quiet, intense types who takes his troubles to heart. He knew he was letting himself down, and letting his team down, and the pressure he puts on himself only made matters worse. He's always better off when he relaxes and trusts his talent.

Leo Jimenez D
He's a whole year and change younger than Vlad, and we haven't seen enough yet to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools.  (Get ready to hear that sentence again.) Jimenez was the best of the ones we don't really know about yet. He's got some promise - he can hit a little, he can play some middle infield defense - but there's a problem. Unless Bichette is traded (this is not the best time, surely), or Clement ends up the incumbent at third base (not my first choice) I don't know what they're going to do with him.  He's still young enough to make something of himself, but I'm pretty sure he's also out of options. Well, they've got a long Canadian winter to sort it all out. As you probably noticed, Jimenez was hit by 16 pitches in just 179 Plate Appearances, or once every 11.2 PApps, which is simply ridiculous. Ron Hunt was only hit once every 12.6 PApps when he was hit 50 times in 1971 to set the modern record. While Jimenez, like Hunt, has always been hit by a lot of pitches, this season was almost certainly just One of Those Things that happens from time to time (as was Hunt's 1971 season.) It did give him a pretty nifty OnBase for a .229 hitter, but don't count on it ever happening again.

Joey Loperfido D
He's two months younger than Vlad and we haven't seen enough yet to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools. Loperfido started his Blue Jay career by going 4-36, which didn't exactly make a winning first impression. He was better after that (.228/.281/.406 from August 13 through the end) and showed a bit of pop, a bit of speed, and some good play in the outfield. I suppose, for the moment, he is the incumbent left fielder. Not wild about that. Loperfido might be a player. He might be the new Billy McKinney. We just don't know.

Addison Barger D
He's eight months younger than Vlad and we haven't seen enough yet to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools.  Barger didn't make a great first impression either, going 1-18 during his first call-up, and he didn't exactly take the league by storm when he came back to stay in mid-June (.211/.267/.379)  He's got a big arm and decent enough range, but he may be a little too error-prone for third base. At the plate, he definitely has some pop and his minor league history suggests he's quite willing to take a walk. He didn't walk much at all at the major league level but that's probably because major league pitchers are generally willing to challenge everybody until they're given an actual reason to proceed with a bit more caution. Barger didn't give them enough reason. Maybe he will, but he probably needs a little more seasoning.

Steward Berroa D
He's three months younger than Vlad and we haven't seen enough to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools. I think Berroa's got a chance to be a useful leadoff type hitter - he only needs to hit about .260 to pull it off - but I'm certain no one's going to give him a chance to do just that.  Game done changed. He was born about 40 years too late.

Kevin Kiermaier D-
Traded to Los Angeles (Dodgers), having already indicated he planned to retire at season's end. Still a wonderful outfielder, but he can't hit at all anymore. Not even a teeny, tiny little bit. Still, what a great run he had. Tampa Bay drafted him in the 31st round back in 2010. He was the 941st player chosen. Nobody knows anything.

Nate Pearson D-
Traded to Chicago (Cubs,) and pitched just great for them for a little while. But he had his good spells here as well. Pearson's got a big arm, but major league hitters sure don't seem to have much trouble squaring up his fastball, and his command of the rest of his repertoire comes and goes. Doesn't really know how to pitch yet, but why would he? He's barely cleared 400 pro innings.

Erik Swanson D-

I'll give him a mulligan for 2024 and so should you. There is no way, no way on earth he could give the game his whole focus this year. And at this level the margins are so fine that that's all it takes for things to go completely sideways. The team gave him almost two months at AAA to do a kind of reboot on his season, and he was just fine upon his return.

Jordan Romano D-
On the one hand, he was getting his job done as well as ever - 8 Saves in 9 opportunities is all you can ask for. On the other hand, he wasn't pitching very well at all (he was actually scored upon in four of those Saves) and elbow miseries ended his season before the end of May.

Davis Schneider D-
Played very well indeed for about six weeks - but he was so irredeemably awful for the next four months as to put his very viability as a major league player into question. From May 12 through September 11 he hit .159/.248/.274 in 90 games. Lord, he was useless. He woke from his coma in mid-September to suddenly rap out seven hits and three homers in three games, then promptly went 1-28 to finish his season. As best as I can figure, the only reason he survived this long stretch of awfulness was the simple fact that all the other unproven hitters the team was looking at - Horwitz, Barger, Loperfido, Wagner, Lukes - happen to hit left-handed.

Cavan Biggio D-
Traded to Los Angeles (Dodgers), who released him soon enough. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants, but he didn't play very well in Sacramento either. The injury-ravaged Braves took a flyer on him anyway. He got into a couple of games, but finished the year in AAA. I always liked him, but I'm not going to be stubborn about it. All the strikeouts have simply swallowed up his offense. He'll be looking for a minor league deal somewhere (what, the Braves are going to offer him arbitration?) if he wants to keep his career alive.

Brian Serven E
Obviously not a major league hitter - the guy couldn't hit in Colorado - and while he has a good defensive reputation his work behind the plate didn't impress me all that much. He ended up being DFA'd when the Jays claimed old acquaintance Tyler Heineman on waivers. I should think that finding someone to partner with Kirk behind the dish has to be an off-season priority.

Zach Pop E
I suppose there's enough in Pop's pitching toolbox - he's got a breaking ball, he can throw hard - to make one think that maybe he'll find a way be useful someday, somehow. But it hasn't happened. He doesn't seem to have a clue how to make use of the tools he has to get hitters out. Not the foggiest, and no one else seems to have any idea either. By the time September came around, I was convinced that Pop's appearance in a game meant John Schneider's focus had shifted to improving the team's draft position. Begone! Avaunt, and quit my sight!

Tim Mayza F
Released and signed to a minor league deal by the Yankees. After a month in AAA, rediscovering his game, he was back in the majors, pitching more or less like the Mayza we've always known - lots of hits, not so many walks or homers. He was doing this for the Damn Yankees. In the post-season.

Daniel Vogelbach F
Released and presumably looking for a minor league deal somewhere. I'll be extremely surprised if he finds one.

                                                                          
Blue Jays Report Card | 117 comments | Create New Account
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Ducey - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#453084) #
Excellent writing, as usual.

If we are just judging this season (which I think we are), Bo needs an E. Couldn't hit (Ops+71), couldn't field, looked miserable, broke his calf, then broke his middle finger taking grounders (something he had been rumored to be good at given his profession). Even the flow and headband thing isnt working anymore.

And D Schneider is a solid E too. By midseason most were calling for him to be sent back to AAA - for his own good! Maybe we couldn't bear to watch anymore? He did help the Jays tank. That's something that might turn out good in 3 years, I guess.
scottt - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#453086) #
I'd give Atkins a C. This is as good a return on trades as could be imagined.
Garcia gets an A. Puts in career numbers but miss a few weeks due to overuse?
Varsho gets a B+. Best outfielder in baseball? Maybe not, but excellent defense and average bat with power. 5 WAR. Just never hit him in the second spot again.
Bo is E- or F+. A 71 OPS+ on a bat first player at a defensive position? The injuries are getting ridiculous too.
Jimenez gets hit a lot. It's his calling card. I wouldn't count on it not happening. Maybe he needs to wear more protection though or there will be injuries.

Glevin - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#453087) #
I don't like the Clement grade because I think that's the best Clement can possibly do and it was valuable and we shouldn't expect more out of him. For me that's an A or B. Also feels like Varsho should be higher. B-Reference has him as a 5 WAR player. He is who he is and it's a very good player with flaws. Bo needs to be F too. Worst player on the team and he could/should be much better. I don't know how he gets grade higher than that.
Dave Till - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#453089) #

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Dave Till - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#) #
I look forward to this every year.

I can’t find it in me to judge Atkins harshly. The bullpen looked good enough going into the season and it’s impossible to build an entire pen from scratch in mid-season. He’ll need to build a new pen in the offseason, which is difficult but at least doable.

I also can’t really blame him for the club’s lack of postseason success and the comparative lack of development of the farm system. These things are random and, as you say, nobody knows anything.

But I also believe that the Jays are on the cusp of a decision point and this is more of a Rogers decision than an Atkins decision: do they want to spend enough money to compete with the elite teams in the league or not? The fanbase (including me) is desperate to see Vladdy signed to a new contract - but doing so will require more than $300 million. Given that Rogers is a publicly traded company that answers to its shareholders, somebody’s going to need to make a convincing business case for keeping him here.

Historically, the Jays have not tried to keep their young talent - I think Dave Stieb is the only player, through all the years, that they haven’t let go. Toronto is the third-largest metro market in North America that has a baseball team - but they’re trying to compete for talent with teams from the first two (NY and LA), who inevitably squash the Jays with their wallets.
Dave Till - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#453090) #
Argh - sorry about posting the random crap before my comment. My iPad interface screwed up.
bpoz - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#453092) #
Thanks for the work to produce this Magpie. I think your grading was fine. I really liked your explanation about each person.

Maybe J Schneider and his analysis people are doing a better job.
Great explanation about Atkins.
I noticed that Gausman threw 100+ pitches a lot and I was a bit concerned.
B Francis went very deep into his games. 7IP a few times and 117 & 111 pitches in 2 games. I suppose he is a different type pitcher than Jim Clancy. Any opinions?
Horwitz has a nice bat. Wagner has impressed you in the SSS.
D Schneider was bad.
hypobole - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#453093) #
Could quibble about a few grades, but the only I totally disagree with is Varsho's. League average bat. Either the best (B-R) or top 3 (OAA) defensive OF in MLB. Plus baserunner. Non-rally killer - only 2 GIDP's in over 500 PA's.

Strong B grade at least.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#453094) #
Great writeup, Magpie. I agree with Glevin that Ernie Clement deserved a better grade. It was his first full year playing in the big leagues and he contributed 3.6 WAR and hit above league average.

Overall I believe Clement, Horwitz and Lukes deserve to be on the team next year. Loperfido, Barger, Clase and Schneider need to be in AAA. I think Schneider has completely lost his confidence as he looked bad even in the field yesterday. Jiminez I'm not sure about. The front office obviously thinks highly of him as they protected him from Rule 5 when he was in Single A.
uglyone - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#453095) #
Warning: harsh language

https://x.com/fanfirstnetwork/status/1840561995378037089
Magpie - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#453096) #
The grades shouldn't be taken too seriously - as I say, I pull them out of my butt. (I do say that a little more elegantly.)

I am, as always, considering the current season in isolation, with little if any regard to what the player was expected to deliver (Bichette!) or being paid to deliver (Springer!)

And as always, I just don't think defence is anywhere near as important as it used to be. We're getting to a point in the game's evolution where there are only two important defensive positions, and those two guys take the field facing each other, 60 feet apart.

I did second guess myself on Clement, but I was wondering why I was giving him a C when Springer got a D+.
Ryan Day - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#453097) #
For what it's worth, Fangraphs thinks Clement was the Jays' best defensive shortstop, and his bat isn't out of place for that position. Depending on how the Bo situation shakes out, he could be Mr Right Now at short in 2025, or a very good super-sub.

Plus, the home run he hit on a ball that was nearly over his head has to be one of the highlights of the year. https://www.mlb.com/video/ernie-clement-lines-98-3-mph-home-run
John Northey - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#453098) #
Always fun to read although I strongly disagree on the value of defense.  Especially at SS/2B/CF - there is a reason teams have lower expectations from bats at those positions than elsewhere.

As to how the Jays did lets look at fWAR by position (nearly done with just 2 games to go for the entire ML's)...
  • C: 11th at 3.1, 21st in offense, 6th in defense.  A bat first backup for Kirk might be best for 2025.
  • 1B: 2nd at 5.1, 1st in offense (41.0 to 33.9 in Philly), 21st in defense.
  • 2B: 9th at 3.0, 7th in offense (5.0 was a mile from #1 Arizona at 29.2), 14th in defense (2.6 was well off Cleveland's 15.7).  IKF was a big part (1.0 fWAR), as was Horwitz (0.9 fWAR) but neither will be at 2B here in 2025, Wagner in 20 games was at 0.6 (pace of 4.5/150), Schneider 0.4 in 42 games (1.4 per 150), Clement at 0.  Surprisingly Horwitz did better on defense at 2B than Schneider did.
  • 3B: 18th at 2.1, 17th in offense, 15th in defense - maybe giving up some defense to put Vlad's bat here isn't a bad idea - Vlad's defense was +0.7 (better than Barger and DeLosSantos and Turner)
  • SS: 19th at 2.6, 22nd in offense, 13th in defense - Kind of surprised Jimenez was a negative on defense, Clement a positive on both defense and offense at SS
  • LF: 11th at 2.3, 22nd in offense, #1 by a mile in defense (9.4, 4.8 for all other teams who were over 0 - 4 clubs).  Defense so good if you remove Varsho and his 52 games there the Jays still had a defense score of  2.3 (mostly Lukes) which is barely behind #2 Texas (2.5).  Basically Lukes in LF and Varsho in CF was as good or better as Varsho/Kiermaier.  Wow.  Find a good RH hitter regardless of fielding ability to mix with Lukes for 2025 and LF could be very nice.
  • CF: 18th at 1.9, 27th in offense, 5th in defense (tied for 4th with Cubs at 11.6, #1 Tampa had 14.4).  Clase a big negative, as was Lukes out there (as good as he was in LF he was terrible in CF - bit odd)
  • RF: 18th at 1.4, 22nd in offense, 3rd in defense (-2.6, Milwaukee led at +9.6). Everyone was positive on defense there outside of Springer (-7.7), but Springer was the best with the bat in RF (1.0, Varsho 0.2, rest negative). 
  • DH: 12th at 1.3, 11th in offense, 12th in defense (huh? how is there one iota of difference between the 30 teams on DH defense?).  Obviously the Dodgers were #1 by a mile here at 9.1 fWAR. Vogelbach and Schneider both forgot their bats when DHing (negatives all around), Horwitz and Vlad both did well though (154/129 wRC+ respectively there) while Kirk really came to life as a DH this year (211 wRC+ in just 5 games though)
  • Pinch runners: 14th 20 games, scored 11 times 3 stolen bases.
  • Pinch hitters: 14th 108 times used, 94 wRC+, Schneider and Clement the most used (14 times) with Schneider having a wRC+ of 0, Clement 220.
  • Pitchers hitting: 1st with 0.1 WAR - IKF had 2 PA while pitching and had a single.
  • Starting pitchers: 17th with 10.6, 2+ for 3 guys - Gausman, Bassitt, Kikuchi, 1's for Francis, Rodriguez, and Berrios,  0+ for Burr, Richards, Manoah, negatives for Espino.  Solid, but very mediocre overall.  2nd half has Gausman #1, Francis #2 (they use FIP iirc so that hurts Francis and his crazy low BABIP of 137 in the 2nd half).
  • Relief pitchers: 30th with -2.5 - one of 2 teams sub 0 (Colorado the other, yes even the 121 loss White Sox did better).  Positive guys: Garcia, Yarborough, Burr, Nance, Tate, Green, Robertson, Eisert, de Geus, White, and the hitters pitching (IKF, Clement, Heinemann).  Worst? -0.5 or worse were Cabrera, Swanson, Pop.  Swanson was negative even if cut to just the 2nd half which surprised me as he seemed better, but I guess I wasn't paying enough attention (can anyone blame me?)
So, the Jays were top 10 at 1B/2B, and damn close at C/LF/DH.  Bottom 10 (well bottom period) at relief pitching, close to bottom 10 at SS, CF, RF.  So based on these stats those are the spots for the biggest gains - relief (can't get worse), SS, CF, RF.  Of course, CF was hurt by Kiermaier - Varsho on his own in 86 games was at 1.6 fWAR which would be solid if left there - 2.8 over 150 pace which would be top 10 in MLB which makes sense given he was a big part of why LF was a near top 10, but won't be going forward without some improvements made.

If I was going to bet I'd expect a power first LF to be signed, Lukes to be the OF backup, and all other efforts going to the pen.  Late in the off-season they might sign a DH/1B to mix in but I'm not expecting it. I expect Vlad to be handed 3B for 2025 with fingers crossed (187 wRC+ at 3B and positive defense suggests he was really loving it there).
Glevin - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#453099) #
What a game between Braves/Mets but MLB screwed up big here. Now, Mets will play backups and Braves will start Sale meaning Arizona almost certainly out. If that were one game to decide playoffs, would have been one of best games ever but both teams probably in dampens its meaning.
Magpie - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#453100) #
there is a reason teams have lower expectations from bats at those positions than elsewhere.

So do I, but in the modern game defenders aren't required to get nearly as many outs as in the Days of Yore. Which is why it's not as important as it used to be. Strikeouts now account for 31% of all outs recorded. Fifty years ago, they were just 18%.
Nigel - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#453101) #
A fabulous read as always - thank you very much Magpie. I'd only quibble on a few.

I'd give Atkins a lower mark but that was for his offseason work. As I said all last winter, last offseason was actually the inflection point for this roster (it needed significantly more help or they needed to start selling some veteran starters etc.) and they chose to do nothing and now this offseason that everyone is calling the inflection point (it isn't really) has far fewer good options available to it.

I think that you are hard on Clement and Varsho. Clement was actually close to an elite defender at 3B and damn close to a league average bat (he's a poor man's Varsho). I think both deserve better than a C.

Other than that thumbs up.
greenfrog - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#453102) #
So the Mets won game 1. What needs to happen in game 2 for Arizona to make the playoffs?
AWeb - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#453103) #
Arizona needs a split in the double-header, while the braves and mets each need 1 win. The incentives are all screwed up in the 2nd game...but it's only 1-0 in the 4th so far.
Chuck - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#453104) #
Arizona needs a split in the double-header

Arizona needed a sweep in the double-header, by either team, so they need the Mets to win game 2 now.

John Northey - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#453106) #
I agree Magpie that defense was bigger in the 80's (let's say) than today.  That is why Ozzie Smith was one of the highest paid despite having a poor bat (172 Total Zone runs [best method available for the 80's] vs #2 Ozzie Guillen at 95, #3 Alan Trammell at 76, Cal Ripken #4 67, Tony Fernandez #5 46), the spread from #1 to #2 was bigger than #2 to #14.  Crazy.  For the 2010's using DRS at SS it is Andrelton Simmons at #1 with 184 DRS, #2 is Brendan Ryan at 77 - even bigger than the Smith vs Guillen battle.  FYI: top Jay is Troy Tulowitzki at #6 with 51.  For the last 10 (2015-2024) it is still Simmons #1 at 133, Nick Ahmed & Trevor Story tied at #2 with 79.  Top ex-Jays are Paul DeJong at #11, Isiah Kiner-Falefa at #13, Troy Tulowitzki drop to #20, Adeiny Hechavarría #22 (wasn't a Jay at any point in that decade though - he bounced around a LOT, 7 teams in his career).

This suggests that the very best at SS can still save a TON of runs, maybe as many as back in the 80's.  A shame we didn't have anywhere near the quality of stats for fielding back then though.  FYI: going back a lot further to 1950's you get Johnny Logan at 65 leading the way - but the spread then was much smaller with the worst being Pete Runnels at -29.  Of course, back then all methods are extremely limited due to a much weaker set of stats to work from.  Heck, the 1800's (1871 to 1899) #1/2 are Germany Smith 164, Jack Glasscock 153, then it drops to 70 for TZ, with Joe Sullivan the worst at -48. 

So the best each decade generally is far and away the best at a position, at least for SS.  I suspect the base level needed was higher in the pre-nutty K era we are in now. But there is still a need for the top defenders.  They just need to hit a LOT better than in the past to keep their jobs. (looking at Alfredo Griffin).
uglyone - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#453107) #
Guillermo Martinez just got an F from the org.
John Northey - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#453109) #
So Atlanta and the Mets both make it, Arizona doesn't. 
greenfrog - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#453113) #
Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider will need scapegoats if they’re going to try to justify their continued employment. Martinez is the first to go.
Kelekin - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#453114) #
I have no idea if Martinez was good or bad at his job. He was considered great before 2023. But none of us know how good the coaches are, they're just vessels for our emotions. Anyway, Matt Hague is our new savior, until he's not.

I assume Pete Walker is a permanent fixture no matter the on-field or off-field performance.
greenfrog - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#453116) #
I'm sure Walker is a competent if not very good pitching coach, although Kikuchi's transformation into a more effective pitcher in Houston this season raises the question whether the Blue Jays coaching staff (and analytics staff?) missed something about him.

Since the trade, Kikuchi's strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his ERA, FIP and xFIP are down.
greenfrog - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#453117) #
Also, Kikuchi is averaging a healthy 6IP per start in Houston.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#453121) #
Pete Rose has passed away at the age of 83. He may have been a great ballplayer but he was not a good person.
Magpie - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#453122) #
This suggests that the very best at SS can still save a TON of runs, maybe as many as back in the 80's.

Well, in 1984, teams averaged 505 assists from their shortstops, led by St. Louis (Ozzie) with 597.

In 2024, teams averaged 388 assists from their shortstops. St. Louis (Masyn Wynn) still leads the way, but with just 451.

I don't think the shortstops today are worse than the ones from 40 years ago. I think there just aren't nearly as many plays for them to make.

The difference between the shortstops making the most plays and the ones making the least has narrowed. If Ozzie was taking away 90 singles more than an average shortstop (they're all singles!), Wynn is taking away about 60.

This of course isn't taking anything else into account - pitcher's strikeout rates, groundball or flyball tendencies. All that would give us a clearer picture. But just the raw numbers tell us loud and clear that teams today require considerably less from their fieldera.
Magpie - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#453123) #
[Rose] may have been a great ballplayer but he was not a good person.

Kind of the opposite of Kris Kristofferson! (Didn't really like his music that much, but he was one Righteous Dude.)
John Northey - Monday, September 30 2024 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#453125) #
While true to a point that there are fewer plays for fielders, balls hit now are hit harder than ever before - thus making plays harder and the margin between best and worst bigger. Lets look at top vs bottom among qualified SS's in DRS/TZ depending on what is available.
  • 2024: #1 14, #18 -15
  • 2014: #1 19, #22 -24
  • 2004: #1 15, #23 -27
  • 1994: #1 18, #23 -12 (now using TZ)
  • 1984: #1 23, #18 -22
  • 1974: #1 21, #19 -15
  • 1964: #1 27, #18 -11
  • 1954: #1 20, #13 -11
  • 1944: #1 24, #19 -12
  • 1934: #1 13, #16 -10
  • 1924: #1 29, #16 -15
So over 100 years, going by 1 year per decade, we see the range going from a best of 13 to a best of 29, worst from -10 to -27 - so in any year you could have a 40+ run spread from best to worst, but always at least a 20+ run spread using the best available methods of measurement. The best seems to be less than 20 runs better than 'average' since the 90's, vs being in the 20's outside of 1934 before. The 90's was the emergence of the modern closer/setup/deep pen era which moved relievers from 2+ IP per game to 1 IP at most which quickly led to sky high K rates. So clearly defense at SS has been moved down a notch - in the pre-1980 era having a -20 SS was not acceptable (even if no one then knew these stats, they knew they needed a good fielder at SS), now more willing to accept poor Jeter level defense to get offense.

For a bigger picture - 1871-2001 we have TZ only - range is from Bill Riggins 1923 (NNL Stars) 41 to Mark Belanger 1975 O's 35 at the top, vs Chris Gomez 1997 Padres -33 at the bottom (Jeter's 2000 was the 8th worst ever at SS, 3rd worst in the post 1947 era). DRS (2002-now) has a range of 41 2017 Andrelton Simmons LAA, 34 Adam Everett 2006 Houston to -32 2005 Michael Young Texas. So a range similar to the 100+ years before the recent 23 year range. Noteworthy that the worst for the earlier era was set in 1997, so not that far outside of the current period.

So what I'm saying is defense at key spots like SS is still critical, but teams now are more willing to go with ugly D there to get the bat in which probably helps push the best to high points (due to being vs 'replacement' level for the era which is being pushed down by the Jeter's of the world)

FYI: Jays range: 2002-now: Best: 14 Yunel Escobar 2012; Worst: -16 Bo Bichette 2022 (by far his worst defensive year)
1977-2001: Best: 13 Tony Fernandez 1989 tied Alex Gonzalez 1996; Worst: -12 Alex Gonzalez 2000, 2nd worst Alex Gonzalez 1995 (weird eh?)

The more I look at this the more I think of how it probably shows that the spread from the average is always similar over the years, as unlike something like Home Runs this is adjusted to league thus it is very hard to go way past the best or worst. The big issue is now guys like Simmons can't keep going for a couple of decades despite having no bat as teams demand more offense and with fewer potential runs saved his value is maxed out. In the 50's his big year would've probably been 'just' 20-30 runs above average instead of 41 as the base would've been so much higher. Guys like Jeter were moved off SS back then very quickly. I'll have to do a bigger study on this checking defense vs offensive runs by position by era. See if what I think is true actually is. I remember in the 80's how odd it was when the Expos wrote off defense at SS to play Hubie Brooks there to get his bat in the lineup but his worst was a -10 - Jeter had 4 years worse in the TZ era (over 6 seasons) and 8 worse in the DRS era (13 years). Wow, how did the Yankees win so much with his nightmare defense? Guess that killer bat did a lot (119 wRC+ lifetime) - basically Jeter was Bo but in NY and fielded worse vs league.
Michael - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 04:15 AM EDT (#453128) #
I think for the grading I'd up Atkins to a C and down grade John Schneider to a D-/E. Bo would be an E too. Varsho maybe up a bit. But overall the grades seem roughly right.

There are silver linings on the year, but it was sort of a 2+ bad things for every good thing sort of year. But you don't need that much to go right to have a much better team in 2025, as long as it is the key things going right (like Vlad still hitting like a star, Bo remembering to hit, fixing the bullpen).
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#453130) #
Atkins is an F is you include the poor 2023 trade deadline, lackluster 2023-2024 offseason and 2024. Just a disappointing run. The trade deadline in 2024 was average-ish but Shapiro also said he was much more involved during that process so there were more guardrails for Atkins.

Berroa should be a C. He was an awesome teammate, always watching/cheering and did something positive in the games he was allowed to play in. He wasn't given anywhere near the opportunities that Loperfido and other rookies were. You're not going to hit as a rookie playing once every 8 days. Schneider has never done a good job of utilizing the bench. I'm not sure Loperfido has anything more to offer than Berroa... but we don't know despite having some time this year to better understand.

And I swear if Springer is leading off next year, this team has no hope... he should be hitting no higher than 6th.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#453131) #
I predict that by the end of next season, we'll be wondering why Springer was even in the lineup at all in 2025. Here is his OPS+ trend in recent years:

2021: 141
2022: 132
2023: 102
2024: 92

I know some people are still holding out hope for a resurgence from him next year, but I think it's unlikely. And he may be worse next year than he was this year.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#453132) #
Is Lukes a new Rick Leach? Or is it the Catalanotto skillset
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#453133) #
You're referring to opinions from 23/24. I was expecting a bounce back this year but not next year. He's finished being a good ball player now. I dont think anyone anywhere would expect anything more for next year after seeing his performance this year.
pooks137 - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#453134) #
Shi Davidi is reporting that Gil Kim and Jeff Ware will not be returning to the MLB coaching staff and are being reassigned positions in the org.

Gil Kim IIRC was the Jays minor league coordinator prior to being assigned to the MLB staff.

It was an odd move at the time to move a FO admin guy into an on-field coaching job. It was openly sold at the time that Kim was Atkins' plant in the dugout & there was a trend in baseball to have FO types embedded within MLB coaching staffs for better fingers on the pulse.

It always seemed odd to me the value of placing your minor league admin guys on the big league staff. Wouldn't it make more sense to embed them at Buffalo, NH or Vancouver?
Glevin - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#453135) #
I think some of the variance of grades depends on what you are grading. Are you grading how they did overall or are you grading how they did in context (expectations, salaries, ability, etc...). For me, the second makes more sense. I mean, Bo was better than Barger overall but Bo deserves a worse grade. I'd have Chad Green much worse than a B because he's a highly paid guy who was mediocre.
Ducey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#453136) #
"Guillermo Martinez just got an F from the org."

A year too late.

Runs scored:

2022 - 775
2023 - 746
2024 - 671

Not all of that is the hitting coach, but enough of it is.
Ducey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#453138) #
Season ending press conference today apparently.

Better download the the Atkins "Executive Bafflegab to English" app.
Kelekin - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#453139) #
"Not all of that is the hitting coach, but enough of it is."

Based on what evidence, though?
Ryan Day - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#453140) #
I predict that by the end of next season, we'll be wondering why Springer was even in the lineup at all in 2025.

I don't think anyone will wonder that - the answer starts with a dollar sign and includes a lot of zeroes. And it might include a lack of clearly superior alternatives, though maybe Roden or Clase show up in the spring and put up performances that demand a MLB job.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#453141) #
Cito stressed hitting for the purpose of scoring runs. Gary Denbo stressed hitting for OPB good results. IMO Lyle Overbey would get a walk which improved his OBP.

How can a player get a walk? 4 balls in an at bat would do that. Some balls were balls and other balls were not balls because the umpire makes a subjective decision. Also the players reputation IMO goes quite far to influence the umpire. Also the C has a say in framing the bb/k and the C also chats with the umpire. Maybe some C's develop a reputation that they are good at framing which influences the calls of the umpire. Umpires don't like to be questioned about iffy calls they make. I believe there is a rule about that.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#453142) #
For grades it is tough - I'd lean towards being neutral about salaries/expectations and just grade what actually happened this season, or in the case of the front office from the end of last season to now (1 calendar year). Thus Atkins gets knocked down for his terrible winter (swung for the fences but struck out, which was kind of predictable but damn it was fun for a day or so when we thought Ohtani was coming wasn't it? But it would've been more fun had he traded a few guys to get Soto before the Yankees did). Mid-season trades gets him a big step up - pre-season some thought Loperfido would be good as the cornerstone in a Vlad trade, instead he was a piece of a trade for Kikuchi which included Wagner (likely our starting 2B in 2025) and Jake Bloss (seen as a hotshot starting prospect which this team desperately needs more of).

In fact, lets look at the October 2023-October 2024 trades
  • Santiago Espinal (it was dump him or Clement, Espinal had -0.3 bWAR with a 77 OPS+ this year) for Chris McElvain who started 11 games in A+ with a 4.56 ERA, under 5 IP per start, 3.8 BB/9 9.9 K/9 at age 23 - not much there for either team.
  • Cavan Biggio and cash ($2 mil) for Braydon Fisher - Fisher is 23 in AA/AAA 5.03 ERA 46 games in relief just over an IP per game, 6.0 BB/9 vs 12.9 K/9 - a live arm but no idea where it is going. Biggio released by Dodgers in August, went to SF, then to Atlanta
  • Josh Mollerus (A+ 24 year old 10th round pick of 2023) for Yerry Rodríguez - a lottery pick low level minor leaguer for one of dozens of arms the Jays tossed at the wall this year.
  • Yimi García (threw 9 innings post trade, now a free agent) for Jacob Sharp & Jonatan Clase - Clase looks promising, love the speed, Sharp is 22 in A+, 697 OPS as a catcher (17th round pick in 2023)
  • Danny Jansen (75 OPS+ post trade in 30 games) for Gilberto Batista (19 in A, 2.70 ERA over 16 2/3 IP 2 BB vs 16 K), Cutter Coffey (20 in A+ 581 OPS at 3B, 2nd round pick in 2022) and Eddinson Paulino (21 in A/AA overall a 691 OPS inc Boston, 3B/2B/SS)
  • Nate Pearson (2.73 ERA over 26 1/3 IP 1.4 BB/9 vs 7.9 K/9) for Yohendrick Pinango (22 in AA 518 OPS corner OF) and Josh Rivera (23 AA 424 OPS SS/2B) - ugh, weird trade, Pearson isn't a free agent for a bit still and these 2 look like nothing.
  • Justin Turner & cash ($2 mil) for RJ Schreck 23 in AA, 899 OPS corner OF, 9th round 2023 pick.
  • Yusei Kikuchi (2.70 ERA 10 starts 6 IP per start, 2.1 BB/9 vs 11.4 K/9 - all in eyeshot of his numbers here but just a touch better, critical for them making the playoffs) for Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa & $2.3 mil for Charles McAdoo (22 in AA 609 OPS here, 843 overall, 3B) 13th round 2023
  • Trevor Richards (later sent to minors) for Jay Harry (21 in A+ 679 OPS SS/2B, 6th round pick in 2023)
  • Kevin Kiermaier and $1.7 mil for Ryan Yarbrough
Plus an assortment bought, sold, grabbed off waivers (Mitch White, Ryan Burr, and assorted others). Selling Otto Lopez looks really bad (2.6 WAR for Miami - was sold to SF, lost him to Miami on waivers) but he has nowhere here being behind Clement & Espinal at the time of the deal.

IMO these were clear wins for the most part, the Pearson one looking like a loss, but not a massive one given how he sucked here and I suspect will again (he is out of options and if not in the majors in April will be on the waiver wire). Jansen, Garcia, Turner, and Kikuchi deals all are very clear winners for the Jays (Kikuchi also good for the Astros). The Jays now could resign Jansen (after his flop in Boston he should be fairly cheap), Garcia, and maybe Kikuchi too (I suspect Houston will make him a better offer though). Zero interest in Turner, Richards, Kiermaier, Biggio, and Espinal. The farm needed restocking badly and this really got it done. No idea who was responsible for the trades - was it mostly Click, Atkins, or Shapiro? It'd be interesting to know. I remember back in the Ash days we'd hear sometimes that a deal was Dave Stewarts idea (Woody Williams+ for Joey Hamilton) but it always is rare for fans to know who did a deal outside of assuming it was always the GM. The Pearson deal is the only one that could come back to haunt (well Espinal & Lopez too), the rest are now free agents and only could've 'helped' the Jays move closer to 500 and get a worse draft pick this year.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#453143) #
ah so they're putting all the blame on all the assistant coaches.

i'm skeptical that's where it belongs.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#453144) #
Agreed - the coaches might not be perfect, but they are unlikely where the real issues are. Might just be the first layer of adjustments going on. Make sure those assistants get the maximum time to find new jobs.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#453145) #
A wholesale firing of the position coaches is entirely Atkins’ brand when it comes to leadership style. Entirely consistent with refusing to take any responsibility at last year’s Berrios Fiasco presser. As a head of talent acquisition etc he seems pretty average to me. I think you could do worse. As a leader of people the external evidence (which I acknowledge is only a tiny fraction of the whole picture) isn’t pretty.
Ducey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#453146) #
"Based on what evidence, though?"

Ultimately we cant know. But a drop of 100 runs scored over 2 years, the fact that the majority of the young players were Hague disciples, and most damning, the lack of improvement of just about every hitter on the team.

Vladdy certainly bounced back, but they brought in EE to assist, among others. Meanwhile Bo (who seems to have his dad and others involved) fell off a cliff, Cavan deteriorated to the point of losing his MLB status, Varsho flatlined, Springer worse, KK done, Chapman bounced back once he left, Kirk had stretches where he was lost, Jansen forgot how to hit (he didnt do much in BOS either but that is pretty limited at bats), Espinal regressed, Schneider was lost in space, etc.

I cant think of any of the non AAA promotions who actually improved (other than Vlad).

Again not all of this is Martinez's fault but when your job is to improve hitters and literally just 1 improves under your watch, you have not done your job.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#453147) #
Martinez may have been the fall guy as he was just one of many voices instructing the hitters. Also involved were assistants Matt Hague and Hunter Mense, plus Don Mattingly contributing, too. On top of that, Edward Encarnicion and Victor Martinez offered their input during the season. Was this a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth, or just the fact that there just wasn't enough good hitters on the team?
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#453148) #
The Mariners are said to be increasing payroll - Vlad would be an excellent addition to that fearsome pitching staff and they have the prospects.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#453149) #
I believe the season ending press conferences are tomorrow, Wednesday.

I would change two grades, as many have said higher for Clement. It depends on whether you grade him on absolute performance or performance versus expectations.

The other grade I would change is Atkins. I agree with some that F is the grade. His team did not work and many here were pointing out the flaws in the team before the season began. The fact that some of the trade deadline trades seem decent is like putting lipstick on a pig.

It's no secret that I am not a fan and if he comes back, as seems likely, I would expect a disappointing off season.
mathesond - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#453150) #
Keep in mind too that many hitters have their own personal hitting coaches, who tend to have a greater 'share of voice' than the team's coaches.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#453151) #
You can't complain about a poor-hitting team firing a hitting coach, though I'd love to hear the reason why the Offensive Coordinator got to keep his job, given he has less of a track record than Martinez. This stuff is never about just one person, but Mattingly hasn't brought the professionalism & success his legacy promised.
Katie - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#453153) #
Atkins is an F is you include the poor 2023 trade deadline, lackluster 2023-2024 offseason and 2024.

While it was quite poor, not sure why you'd include the prior year's trade deadline in this year's evaluation.

I think D- is fine for Atkins, he does get minimal points for putting lipstick on a pig and getting a good package for Kikuchi. That being said, I don't see a strong case for keeping him (although that's what they will do).

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#453154) #
Atkins' influence on 2024 did not start and end as succinctly as a player. Ignoring his previous moves feels wrong.

It's clear that the Jays staffing decisions to date are attempting to lay blame on people as far removed from Atkins and Shapiro as possible. Deflection.
Ducey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#453155) #
I am not sure I understand the notion that Atkins is deflecting or putting blame elsewhere.

He could resign.

But failing that, there has to be change. By necessity this would have to be the people who were advising Atkins and making the day to day decision making.

Its also possible for a leader to learn from mistakes and decide to switch gears. In fact, many leaders would tell you that making a few mistakes along the way has made them better leaders.

Its possible that keeping Atkins and bringing in some new people could result in beneficial change.

I am not convinced that Atkins is all that smart at the end of the day or that he will make useful changes, but of course have no way of knowing.

Its pretty clear that its last chance Texaco. He wont get another chance this time next year unless they have dramatically improved.
scottt - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#453159) #
Some people perform better than others.
Replacing staff is normal and happens everywhere.

Martinez was always a weird hitting coach.
He was a shortstop who could not hit enough to reach AA.
No hit tool. No power tool.

If the hitting coach is not responsible for hitting than who is and why bother having a hitting coach in the first place?They brought Encarnation to work with Vladdy.Dante Bichette works with Bo.Springer had his old coach from Houston.
Matt Hague seems to be looking after all the recent AAA graduates.


dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#453160) #
I've decided now to believe that Atkins is simply a layer of insulation for Shapiro.

"The Mariners are said to be increasing payroll - Vlad would be an excellent addition to that fearsome pitching staff and they have the prospects."

My instant thought was the same. Allegedly they were ready to pony up for Vlad at this years deadline but were rebuffed.
scottt - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#453161) #
Atkins is responsible for who is on the team.
We can ignore Guerrero. Atkins gets no credit for him.
Berrios, Green, Francis, IKF and Garcia were all signed by him.
People have regrets on Gausman because he was hurt in the spring and couldn't catch up?
Manoah, Burr, Clement. Is there anything to complain about here?
Varsho? A good player who isn't as good offensively as everybody thought. I don't think that trade rates an E or an F.
Kikuchi was a good signing. No?
Bassitt is still decent.
Cabrera didn't cost much. I don't think.
Turner. He got sick and had a terrible month. Still had a line similar to last year overall. Personally, I would have preferred someone younger but not that many other options had a great year.
Yariel Rodriguez. He's an interesting guy on a decent contract. We'll see what he does next year but so far, so good.
Springer. Early decline but he's the biggest free agent signing in Jays history and he was really good early on--except he couldn't stay on the field. That's the price of signing top free agents. Just look at the Yankees.
Kiermaier. That one was a bad idea. I understand that he was very good last year but I would have looked elsewhere.
Romano, Swanson, Mayza. Is it Atkins' fault if the top 3 relievers fell apart and Richards, the guy who could handle the bulk work--guys on base, multi-innings, tough lefties--fell apart?
Bichette? Nobody would have traded Bichette last winter. 

Objectively, Atkins wasn't that bad.
The team isn't stuck with a multiyear bad contract from last winter.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#453163) #
I would argue that the org did not handle Romano's, Swanson's and Varsho's injuries well. They were allowed to rush back and/or played hurt. There were many instances in the minors over the past two years where prospects were on and off the minor IL a few times only to come back and end up on the 60-day ILs.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#453164) #
37-year-old Buster Posey has been named president of baseball operations for SF. It will be interesting to see how he does in the role.
AWeb - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#453165) #
Watching other teams filled with barely above average plays has put me in a foul mood apparently...feeling really down on the Blue Jays now.

Do the Blue Jays not know how to develop pitching velocity, or are they simply awful at drafting it? Pearson was traded away with the top FB velocity on the team (not useful velocity, but something at least), and apparently that leaves Cabrera as the hardest thrower on the team now. I set a filter at 40 IP on fangraphs and Cabrera is 93rd in FB velocity, Chad Green 133rd. Neither of those guys is from this franchise originally of course. Do they eschew velocity for hoping arms hold together longer (not exactly working either)?  Last year's pen was the first in the top-10 for K% since 2017, but that pen evaporated. This is a franchise that has been good most of the time, but seems a step behind developmentally. No helpful depth, and not a big logjam in the system forcing their way through either.

By fangraphs WAR this year's pen is the worst in the majors (-2.6 WAR) since 2016 (Reds), and that's with good starters not really putting that much pressure on it (bottom ten in bullpen innings). This team needs a front office and coaching staff tear down, possibly way down the minor league lines. This front office talked big talk about creating a steady pipeline of success from the minors to the majors, and it's fallen flat on its face. Being bad at drafting is largely indistinguishable from being bad at developing players, but we know it is at least one of those.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#453166) #
San Diego is getting a great start so far from Michael King (acquired in the Soto trade) tonight. Here’s his pitching line through 80 pitches:

6 5 0 0 0 10

I thought King looked terrific last year, and he has followed that up with a very strong 2024 for SD.

The Padres also got an RBI from Higashioka tonight (he was in the trade as well).
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#453167) #
A lot of people are saying about the 2025 Blue Jays, go get a couple of bats and some bullpen arms. But the team could also use a #1 starter who can deliver the kind of performance King provided for San Diego in game 1 of a WC series tonight. 7 IP, 5 H, 0 runs, 0 walks, 12 strikeouts. I think uglyone pointed this out a while back as well.

I don't think Gausman or anyone else in the Blue Jays rotation is that guy at this point. The team now has a handful of good mid-rotation and back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers. This is a good thing to have. But in postseason series, you want at least one SP who can dominate.

It will be interesting to see if Kikuchi can perform at an elite level this postseason.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 01 2024 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#453168) #
The playoffs are interesting - 4 games, the underdog wins 3 of them. Total of 9 runs in 3 of the games, 12 in the other one.

I really think MLB will need to rethink how the playoffs work for the future. Too easy to get upsets in round 1/2, so need a stronger bonus for the stronger team to ensure we get the best teams in the final rounds and cut back the incentive to just accept a wild card. Maybe make round 1 a best of 5, do double headers for games 1-4 (4 games in 2 days) then a single game if needed to move on. All 5 at the higher ranked team of course. That would make it critical to avoid this round, and test that teams have depth beyond their #1/2 starters, 1/2 relievers.

Round 2/3/4 all best of 7, but round 2 all at home for the higher ranked team and remove off-days. Could make games 1/2 a double header too - boy that would really put the pressure on those wild card teams.
85bluejay - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#453171) #
The state of baseball - can't even sellout playoff games! - I wonder if even hockey may surpass baseball in value. Going around the GTA this summer, I noticed more cricket being played on fields than baseball.
christaylor - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#453175) #
I think this is the best version of the WC MLB has implemented. It penalizes both the WC teams and weak division winners. I'd prefer it stick around for another decade to see how it shakes out before more tinkering.
BlueJaysLifer - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#453177) #
How can you give Ross a low but passing grade when the only reason he had to make those trades was because he actually assembled the cast of over the hill and poor hitters in the first place?
I won’t even start on the draft record on this front office in the first 2 rounds.
Ross gets an easy F from me.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#453180) #
“ The state of baseball - can't even sellout playoff games! - I wonder if even hockey may surpass baseball in value. Going around the GTA this summer, I noticed more cricket being played on fields than baseball.”

Games starting in the afternoon on a Tuesday when kids are back in school is not ideal for attendance. If the WC round went from Friday-Sunday, then attendance would likely be fine for these games even if they started at 2pm. I wouldn’t read much into it. The only alternative would be to have all the games be on prime time and spread them out, but then the playoffs would last like 2.5 months (like the NBA). That’s not ideal either. Also, there is no chance hockey surpasses baseball in the US.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#453181) #
Don't get the Atkins F thing. Last year's free agent crop was maybe weakest I ever remember after Ohtani. There were a few players who did well but by and large, they sucked. IKF, Turner, and Kiermeier gave the Jays around 3 WAR. Let's say Jays sign Teoscar, JD Martinez, and Candelerio instead. That's like 3.5 WAR total. Unless you are retroactively picking the 3 or 4 players that did great, there was no way the Jays were going to compete even with better free agent signings.

The problem that has haunted the Jays and continues to is the complete and utter lack of pitching development. Other teams are constantly calling up some guy who throws 98 and the Jays pick up guys on waivers. Why don't we have those bullpen guys? Why don't we have starters we developed? Compare us to the Red Sox for example who haven't been great at developing players particularly. Crawford, Bello, and Houck were all developed. If you want an elite team at pitching development, look at Cleveland or Seattle. We don't need to be elite, but at this point to have developed another starter or two and a couple of solid bullpen options would be average. We don't really even have guys close. Maybe Macko next year? Infuriating and unacceptable.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#453183) #
There's not a playoff thread yet so I'll put this nugget here. Corbin Burnes pitched into the ninth inning yesterday. allowing one run and lost. This was the first time this happened in a playoff game since 1918 when Hippo Vaughn, pitching for the Cubs against the Red Sox, allowed just 5 hits and one run in a shutout loss. The winning pitcher for the Red Sox, throwing a 6 hit shutout, was Babe Ruth.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#453184) #

Mark Shapiro: Ross Atkins will return as Blue Jays GM in 2025

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) October 2, 2024

Shapiro: “If I felt there was a better alternative to run our baseball operation, I’d make that change.” https://t.co/BDkNwZF9Ut

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) October 2, 2024
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#453185) #
Not just success but a whole lotta success.

Shapiro asked again about reassessing the front office, and if changes/new perspectives might be required: "There has been a lot of success here over the last five years."

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) October 2, 2024
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#453186) #
I missed the first 15 minutes but...This damn guy... no real accountability of the failure of on field results...

Paraphrasing here, but have at it:



On Vlad and Bo:
----------------
Shapiro: "one of our over-arching challenges to the end of next year is trying to replace those types of players (Bo and Vlad)."


On criticism:
---------------
Rosie Dimano: "I was told by one of your players and I quote "This place is a ******* ***show."

Shapiro: "I expect that from you, Rosie. *pause* I was really proud of our clubhouse. Our clubhouse remained unified and solution-focused blah blah blah."


On attracting free agents:
---------------
How do you expect to attract free agents with your contract coming up and no long term signings from your core?

Shapiro: "We need to be sure to explain what the plan is to be a championship team next year."


On John Schneider's performance:
---------------
Shapiro: "We stayed solution focused in the face of heavy backwinds...it's easy to feel sorry for yourself or to point fingers but that never happened on his staff. He keeps getting better."


On Horwitz and Jiminez
---------------
Shapiro: "They can both contribute meaningfully next year"
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#453187) #
It was those damn assistants all along!

Mark Shapiro on the job manager John Schneider did this season.

"Good job. He keeps getting better and will continue to get better."#BlueJays

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) October 2, 2024
Katie - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#453188) #
How can you give Ross a low but passing grade when the only reason he had to make those trades was because he actually assembled the cast of over the hill and poor hitters in the first place?

Because we evaluate things differently. You say that he ended up having to sell because he failed to build a playoff team, so that deserves an F. I say, given that he wound up having to sell because he failed to develop a playoff team, how did he do at that particular task, and I thought he did it well, so it bumps him up from an F. He got a very useful package from Houston and got more for Kikuchi than any other pitcher dealt at the dealine, including Jack Flaherty or Zach Eflin, which was not what I was expecting.

Neither approach is right or wrong; they're just different.

Gerry - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#453189) #
Get out the champagne, Atkins is saved.

The Jays have been letdown by their pitching development. Who is ultimately responsible for that? Our GM, super Ross.

Did anyone ask Shapiro if he considered resigning?
Katie - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#453190) #
I appreciate the dig at Rosie DiMannno, but the idea there isn't a single Assistant General Manager, let alone a number of them, who would likely be a better GM than Atkins is laughable.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#453191) #
"Did anyone ask Shapiro if he considered resigning?"

I'd love to hear someone phrase it like "Why do you think you deserve to be GM of this team going forward?"
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#453192) #
I'm looking forward to the end of the 2025 season. At that point we'll know what is going to happen to Vlad and Bo, and both of Shapiro and Atkins will be canned, hopefully to be never seen again.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#453193) #
Both shapiro and atkins blaming injuries, in a season where the jays were healthier than average.
Ducey - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#453194) #
Mattingly no longer to oversee the offense. Will go back to being bench coach.

Thats a good thing. Although they could have just jettisoned him entirely.

Sounds like they are not committed to signing Vlad.

Ross sounds different - like he has been knocked down a few notches
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#453195) #
After 9yrs as a GM and 23yrs as a baseball exec, Ross assures that he can and will get better at his job.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#453196) #
It feels like Shapiro damned Guerrero Jr. with faint praise, declining to call him a generational player and saying that he's "one of the better offensive players in the game." Then he went on about how players need to produce for 15+ years and stay healthy to make it into the HOF, etc.

Um, VGJ had the sixth-best wRC+ among qualified players in MLB. He's 25.5 years old. The Blue Jays should be heavily praising him (to keep him happy and because he deserves it -- he just had a tremendous rebound season). And they should be all over trying to extend him.

Not impressed.
Kelekin - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#453197) #
I have no problems with Mattingly now back as a bench coach. There's nothing that shows he's bad at that role. Sometimes I think people want firings because it makes them feel better about their own lives, rather than having any sense of on-field impact.
Kelekin - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#453198) #
"It feels like Shapiro damned Guerrero Jr. with faint praise"

I don't like Shapiro at all. But unfortunately in modern business you can't publicly weaken your negotiation position.

He's not good with the public but he's smart enough to know when to not tip his hand.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#453199) #
Is it really smart, though? How do you think Vladdy felt about the Blue Jays organization and front office when he listened to Shapiro minimize his hard-earned accomplishments? Would you be more or less inclined to re-sign with Toronto if you heard your boss say those things?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#453200) #
Bingo. Especially with arbitration coming up he's not going to come out and give more leverage to Vlad and Vlad's team. It's unfortunate, especially in my humble opinion because ownership likely has no issues spending the money and this decision is one of a single person who doesn't want to sign Vlad long term.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#453201) #
I did not watch the press conference but I was impressed by Shapiro's performance!! He revealed nothing to the reporters or fans about his plans which I liked. He is cutting a lot of personnel which is probably the right thing to do. He mentioned Bo & Vlad without really giving away anything.

Seems like he did not mention payroll. He did not insult/criticize anyone. He mentioned championship team but he and just about everyone knows that there is no such thing so this was good PR. He cannot say that he has no plan to contend or be a championship team.

I am very sure that when he has meetings with ownership and his FO team he gives great details on his plans. After nine years at this job myself and others are quite aware about his plans and strategies. I believe producing good revenue is the major influencing factor in his plans. To succeed in this goal he is very sure that a contending team will do the job. Again he does not need to say anything.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#453202) #
Top Blue Jays Hitters by Age 25

* 1. McGriff: 1664pa, 150wrc+
* 2. Guerrero: 3540pa, 137wrc+
* 3. Olerud: 2639pa, 136wrc+
* 4. Bichette: 2328pa, 126wrc+
* 5. Alomar: 4032pa, 119wrc+

McGriff having the advantage of not starting until midway thru his age 23 year, as opposed to 20-21 for everyone else. So obviously he has the smallest sample size here and Vladdy's is 2.5x bigger.

uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#453203) #
i guess i should mention that these smaller sample guys for completeness:

* Phelps 755pa, 122wrc+
* Travis 670pa, 120wrc+
* Barfield 1938pa, 119wrc+
Magpie - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#453204) #
Well, the last time the team went 74-88 (and were generally expected to win at least 90 games) I gave the GM a D. Why change now?
Ducey - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#453205) #
"After 9yrs as a GM and 23yrs as a baseball exec, Ross assures that he can and will get better at his job."

I dont know what kind of job you have, if any, but thats kind of the way it works.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#453206) #
can't wait to see how amazing he is 10yrs from now then!
Glevin - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#453207) #
I think Shapiro is being pretty accurate when he says Vlad is one of the better offensive players in the game. Generational? He could be but he hasn't been so far. Generational is one of the few best players in the game. Vlad has been that in 2/6 seasons. Could he be that going forward? Absolutely. Shapiro went into more detail to say to him generational is like HOF level player and its pretty clear Vlad isn't at that level right now. Some people will try to blow this up as always but there's nothing there.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#453208) #
To me, “one of the better offensive players in the game” is the kind of qualified/measured statement you give when commenting on a good hitter on another team. You don’t want to give them too much credit.

When he’s your own player, and he compares favourably to the best-ever Blue Jays hitters by age 25, and he’s coming off a 165 wRC+ season, and he’s done exactly what you wanted by elevating his game, you have to do better than that.

My guess is that, on some level, it bothers Shapiro that, nine years in, his best player *by far* is someone Anthopoulos bequeathed to him.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#453209) #
It was a completely reasonable answer to a really dumb question. What annoys me about people being upset about this answer is that they are the same people who are upset at the way Atkins talks and says nothing but this kind of "gotcha" nonsense is why Atkins talks the way he does. Shapiro was upfront and honest and accurate. If he had done the Atkins blah blah nonsense, everyone would have been upset. It's not because in 2014, Anthopolous signed Vlad. That's just ridiculous. These aren't children.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#453210) #
"B Good (might even receive All-Star consideration, who knows)
C Average (generic regular)"

Maybe he deserved a C+, but Magpie nailed the Clement grade based on his legend.

I keep seeing a lot of talk about improving the bullpen, and I think it's a huge mistake to spend money trying to do so. This team needs a big bat (really two) and a frontline SP. Sort out the bullpen on the fly, you'll have lots of players you can trade for arms if you bring in some offense.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#453211) #
Since Shapiro referenced the last 5yrs of success, just wanted to get the exact picture:

* Last 5 years: .540 win% (#10) - Plyff: 0-6 games, 0-3 series
* Since Shapiro: .504 win% (#13) - Plyff: 5-10 games, 2-4 series
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#453212) #
Glevin, I disagree. And you're missing my point. When a young player does everything asked of him and posts a superb performance, outperforming everyone else on the team and staying healthy, his bosses should give him the specific praise he merits, not focus on his "potential" and the reasons why he's not great yet. Shapiro should have acknowledged that Vladdy just had a terrific season and that he is a highly valuable player in the here and now. He didn't do that. This could be a negotiating tactic (as Kelekin suggested) or it could be for the reason I hypothesized. And I don't assume that just because someone is an adult, that they always act reasonably and rationally (as occasionally evidenced in some of the posts on this site).
Nigel - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#453213) #
Clement was basically a league average bat and an above average to plus defender this year. That translated to 3.5 bWAR and 2.2 fWAR in 450 PAs. I don’t think that qualifies as “generic regular” but that is probably the closest descriptor based on the grading scale as you say.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#453214) #
this kind of "gotcha" nonsense is why Atkins talks the way he does.

Sure. Events like today are largely a political exercise, and the first objective is not to to say something controversial or create any new problems. It's not intended to convince anybody of anything. The people who have already made up their minds and the people who haven't aren't going to be persuaded by anything that happens here.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#453215) #
If you listened to Shapiro's full comments, he was complimentary and clear and explained how he defines generational talent clearly and fairly. Someone (Wilner apparently, it figures) asked a dumb question and he gave a direct answer which was accurate. What you're saying, is that he should have obfuscated and not answered the question directly and instead just been complimentary to Vlad that the reason he didn't do that is some vendetta that doesn't make a lick of sense.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#453216) #
Clement

I think a C season from your utility infielder is wonderful. Lots of teams have regulars who can't match that. It's a small issue that Clement was as close as the team had to a regular third baseman, and his offense doesn't look quite as good there.

That's a pretty small problem, actually. To be honest, I was mostly freaked out by the same number of GIDPs and BBs. I'm quite stunned by it, and I can't imagine the last time that's been done by someone who played that much. (It was probably last year somewhere, but still...)
92-93 - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#453217) #
2024:

.253 .317 .411 MLB SS
.242 .308 .393 MLB 3B
.263 .284 .408 Clement
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#453218) #
Glevin, you certainly seem passionate and convinced of your point of view.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#453219) #
I don't expect any accurate reporting on the Vlad signing negotiations. Shapiro knows that the end of 2025 could be the end of Vlad & Bo as Jays.
Nigel - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#453222) #
I’m not really contesting the idea that over the long haul Clement is probably just a generic regular (if that). The lack of walks and only modest power contrive to make being a league average bat a challenge for Clement. But he was pretty darn good this year!
uglyone - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#453223) #
Clement's projections had him as a slightly below average mlb hitter this year, and that's exactly what he was. probably a good bet for that continue.

If his defense at SS is actually plus like the stats think it is, that makes him a very good player. and a reliably good one with a high floor at that.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#453224) #
Is it just me or did it seem like a much bigger gap than normal between your star players and everybody else... there were a ton of sub-.700 OPS players playing every day, more guys struggling to hit .200, etc...
92-93 - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#453225) #
Hitters suck, and pitchers are only going to get better. It's time to cut down on the number of pitchers teams can carry.
scottt - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#453227) #
People are never happy about injuries but it's hard to blame the coaching.
The one exception is probably the manager with respect to reliever usage, but even then, the manager is told who is available and who isn't.

Pens are limited and players don't want to go back to AAA.
In the end, it mostly comes down to money.
They have an associate manager, a bench coach, an assistant pitching coach in the pen and another one in charge of strategy, 2 assistant hitting coaches, a field coordinator, 2 bullpen catchers, a major league mental performance coach,etc..They have 41 names associated with the high performance department, trainers, dietitians, strength coaches, conditioning coaches, therapists, mental coaches, doctors, orthopedic surgeons, etc...I doubt the GM decides when injured players are ready to return.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#453228) #
"you certainly seem passionate and convinced of your point of view."

*useless comment
scottt - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#453229) #
Posey is one of 31 partners who own the team and was already one of the 6 members of the board of directors.
scottt - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#453230) #
You never know who is a postseason pitcher and who isn't.
David Price is a good example.
The Pirates have a great #1 pitcher and it's not helping them.
The Jays have to fix some things to be competitive and that won't leave any money to spend on the rotation.
We just watched them lose no-hitters in the 9th inning because they have no offense.
A year ago everybody was mad as hell because Kikuchi replaced Berrios in a close game against a team loaded with lefties.
In the postseason, a good pen can get the job done just as well.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#453231) #
Posey was an interesting hire because he was an elite catcher and he’s very young (still only 37). He’s not your typical president of baseball operations hire. It will be interesting to see what impact he has on the organization.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#453234) #
Glevin, BNS’s recent article on Sportnet — “Is Guerrero Jr. a generational player? Blue Jays will have to pay to find out” — focuses squarely on Shapiro’s comments about Vladdy and considers whether those comments were a mistake on his part: “By stopping short of giving Guerrero Jr. that distinction, Shapiro hinted that the Blue Jays are less than completely sold on their best player. . . . If this was a mistake, it's one from which the Blue Jays can certainly recover.”

Based on the specific points he makes throughout his piece, you would almost think BNS had been closely tracking this discussion in this thread…
scottt - Wednesday, October 02 2024 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#453236) #
Yes, the 2013 team.
Was there any assets acquired at the deadline? I don't recall any trades...
Went from 74-88 to 83-79 without trying to compete. Were people here screaming for a tear down?
And then of course won 93 games the following year but only after huge acquisitions at the deadline.
greenfrog - Thursday, October 03 2024 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#453251) #
There are now a slew of Toronto baseball writers describing Shapiro's comments about VGJ as a mistake (or potential mistake) or flub or missed opportunity: Ben Nicholson-Smith, Kaitlyn McGrath, Cathal Kelly, among others.
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