Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Boston at Toronto, September 23-25

And the neon when it's cold outside
And the highway when it's late at night
Got the radio on

There, there. It will all be over soon.

I mean, while the Red Sox are technically still in the hunt, their practical chances of sneaking into the post-season are Extremely Slim - they're four games out, with six left to play, and three teams to overtake (they're also behind Seattle.) They would pretty much have to run the table, and get a lot of help at the same time. There's a pretty decent chance we will see their last flickering hopes formally extinguished while they're visiting our house. They've just shut down Rafael Devers, their best hitter, for the remainder of the season. That's probably not going to help.

We take our pleasures where we find them these days.

At the moment, of course, Kansas City and Detroit occupy the final two AL playoff spots, with Minnesota one game behind. But while the Twins and Tigers both finish up with a six-game homestand, the Royals have to head out on the road to conclude their season. Their final three will be with an Atlanta team that may be desperately trying to keep their own fading post-season chances alive.

The Twins have stumbled a bit lately, but they get to finish up with three games against Miami, who will be one of two MLB teams to lose 100 games, and then three with Baltimore who have been fading even more comprehensively than the Twins (the Orioles haven't had a winning month since June.) The Twins also hold the tie-breakers over both Kansas City and Detroit (KC has the tie-breaker over Detroit.)

Meanwhile Detroit wraps up with three games against the Chicago White Sox. So I'm liking their chances quite a bit.

The situation is almost the same in the other league - the Mets and the Diamondbacks are tied at 87-69 - they hold the final two playoff spots, and the Braves are two games behind. The Mets are the team that has to finish their season on the road while the other two contenders get to stay home. And there's gonna be a showdown, beginning tonight in Atlanta, with the Mets going down to Georgia for three. By Wednesday we might have a better idea where all this is heading.

Or we might not.

Matchups

Mon 23 Sep - Houck (8-10, 3.21) vs Bassitt (10-13, 4.16)
Tue 24 Sep - Bello (14-8, 4.49) vs Francis (8-5, 3.47)
Fri 25 Sep - Fitts (0-0, 0.00) vs Gausman (13-11, 3.91)

Posted by Magpie on Monday, September 23 2024 @ 03:00 PM EDT.

Boston at Toronto, September 23-25 | 134 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

92-93 - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#452863) #

If the Mets win this series, that race is basically over. If the Braves win it, they'll be one game back with the tiebreaker in hand. Atlanta has Schwellenbach, Sale, and Fried on the bump to try and save their season.

The Jays were half a game back of the Tigers at the trade deadline.

Ducey - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#452865) #

Playoffs? Who cares about playoffs?

I'm looking way down the standings.

The Jays are currently 7th worst. They are not going to suck more than WSH who is 6th worst, and a full four games behind the Jays in the league standings.

The Jays are tied with PIT, 1 game behind TEX and 2.5 games behind CIN. The are 4 games behind SF, and likely wont catch them.

TEX gets OAK and ANA to finish out so hopefully they can win most of those.

PIT has MIL and the NYY. Hopefully they Yanks will have clinched something by then and will be resting key people.

CIN has 5 games left - 2 v CLE and 3 v the Cubs. Maybe they get a fired manager bump. Here's hoping.

Its critical that the Jays lose 3 vs BOS as MIA is in to finish the schedule. They have tanking down to a science.

Eephus - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#452866) #

Not a fan of tanking, both as a mode of operation and as a spiritual slight to the Baseball Gods. Even in the NBA, the major North American sports league where tanking a season makes the absolute most sense to get a super-duperstar... well, take a gander at how the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons or Washington Wizards are posed for the next several years despite already having multiple high lottery picks in the past several years (have fun, Cooper Flagg). I'm cool with playing out the string, but trying/hoping they lose on purpose is too far for me.

Entertaining games where the bullpen blows it? Sure I guess. We haven't had to dream on that one in 2024...

Eephus - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#452867) #

Bah! I meant "poised" not "posed". Clearly my words are playing out the string as well.

Magpie - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#452868) #

a spiritual slight to the Baseball Gods.

Exactly! Karma is a... (rhymes with "witch")

scottt - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#452869) #

It's only tanking when you're doing it with a small budget like Baltimore did.
When you're out of it and you don't optimize your odds, it's just letting the replacement players show what they can do.
Trading Bassitt or Green would have been tanking. Letting a waiver pick up pitch in high leverage isn't.

Nigel - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#452870) #

The Jays may have only been a half a game back of the Tigers at the trade deadline but their respective run differentials suggested that they weren't that close in terms of likely rest of the year performance. The Jays were nearly 70 runs worse in run differential. That's a lot.

John Northey - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#452871) #

Good point on standings there. July 30th end of day, Jays were 51-58, just 3 AL teams doing worse (LAA, A's, ChiSox), Tigers 1 game ahead, Texas 1 1/2, Houston 5 games up. Since then the Jays are 22-25 (tied for 8th in the AL), Tigers 30-17 (best in AL), Houston 30-19 (2nd best), Texas & Baltimore tied at 22-26 (4th & 5th worst), Boston 22-27 (3rd worst), Twins 23-27, just behind the Jays, Seattle 23-24. Remember, the Jays mid-season trades were to Seattle, Minnesota, Boston in the AL - only Houston is currently in playoff position. The NL teams were the Cubs, Pirates, and Dodgers with only the Dodgers going to the post-season.

Yeah, you get a Detroit or Houston who jumps up and does well post-deadline, but you also get lots of Texas, Seattle, Minnesota, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Cubs types who flop.

Ducey - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#452872) #

If you dont want to cheer for the Jays to lose, then cheer like hell for CIN, PIT and TEX to win!

Magpie - Monday, September 23 2024 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#452874) #

The Jays are currently 7th worst. They are not going to suck more than WSH who is 6th worst

That's okay. If draft history means anything (very, very little in my view) you'd rather pick 7th, 8th, or 9th anyway if you can't choose in the top three. And there is possibly a curse on the sixth pick anyway. (This is largely voodoo, no?)

During the twelve years from 2010-2021:

Pick Total  Avg. Players with  Players with   Players with
No.   WAR   WAR    10+ WAR       0-10 WAR      minus-0 WAR   Best Player

1    178.6  14.5     5             4             3           Bruce Harper 50.6
2    126.5  10.5     5             4             3           Alex Bregman 39.2
3    137.7  11.5     4             6             2           Manny Machado 57.8
4     54.2   4.5     2             6             4           Kevin Gausman 23.6
5     53.6   4.5     2             4             6           Kyle Tucker 22.9
6     45.5   3.8     1             4             7           Anthony Rendon 33.7
7     99.4   8.3     3             7             2           Aaron Nola 35.0
8     83.0   6.9     2             5             5           Francisco Lindor 49.3
9     69.7   5.8     2             7             3           Javier Baez 25.2
10    22.5   1.9     1             5             6           Michael Conforto 17.4

As always, youneverknow. It's kind of cool that you come up with someone quite useless no matter where you pick.

Eephus - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#452875) #

If draft history means anything

Not to pile upon this point as I feel my thoughts on MLB draft positioning are clear (in the top 5-10 are marginal at best)... but I'd also like to remind everyone of a "terrible" GM who squandered several top picks. A collection of high draft picks scored from very bad Blue Jays seasons... resulting in several players that barely sniffed the majors. Different era sure, and I was not around yet for the Augie Schmidts or the Matt Starks, or Eddie Zosky or Alex Sanchez... but that GM is also in the Hall of Fame and I doubt anyone around here disagrees. Hey though... that's a drafting record with some warts... which is kinda my point. Aaron Judge was picked 32nd overall. Good on the Yankees for seeing that talent and developing it... and now I need a barf bag excuse me please.

In baseball there simply is no Victor Wembanyama coming along to transform your franchise overnight... and even if so the San Antonio Spurs were still really really bad last season with him (and I doubt they're contending this upcoming season either). Getting Jackson Holliday's younger, better (maybe?) sibling would be swell, but it's not worth stripping a roster to the rusty nails for.

Regardless... we will miss this thing (baseball) once the leaves are fully brown and this game we love so much has vanished into the cold howl once again. There shall be plenty of time to debate players of all shapes and forms. Hell, it's why I keep coming back to read this wonderful site for its wonderful insight (pardon the terrible rhyme): the arguments are compelling, while the minor league updates illuminate.

In the meantime... Blue Jays baseball. Enjoy it, I implore you. You'll miss it soon.

85bluejay - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#452876) #

I'm rooting for the Jays to get as high a draft pick as possible - it guarantees nothing except a better opportunity to make a good selection and more pool money to spread around and I prefer that to winning a few more games in a lost season. The early Jays I've read had a tiny budget for scouting the draft so their failure was not surprising. Anyways to each his own but I prefer my team have more choices than not.

Glevin - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#452877) #

I am not rooting for the Jays to lose. There isn't much of a difference between picking 5-7 and odds of moving up aren't much better, I just don't want them to go on some pointless winning streak and end up with the 12th pick. I believe the White Sox/A's thing is only for first round likely the Jays would be picking 7-10 picks into every round. I think bonus pool is one of the biggest differences as it really allows for more flexibility.

I think it's very hard to read into strength of opponent in the last week unless the team has something to play for. Pirates play Brewers and Yankees for example which is very tough but neither team has much to play for except seeding so they could easily be sitting guys, pulling starters, early, skipping a start, etc...

bpoz - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#452879) #

I hope the A Martin pick taught the Jays something. But what I don't know.

He was a Boras client and took a lot of the Jay's Draft budget.

Martin also did not live up to expectations.

Ducey - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#452881) #

I dont what they learned anything from the Martin pick.

Its pretty clear to me based on this years picks and some of the guys they traded for on the deadline that they value the BB/K ratio more than anything else. That results in Wagner/ Kasevich/ Roden/ Horwitz type players who struggle to develop power.

On the other hand they seem to have departed from this when they picked Nimmala.

When it comes to picking pitchers, they seem to be trying to repeat Ricky T. Otherwise, who knows?

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#452882) #

One reason I'm a little pessimistic about 2025 is that this is a relatively difficult roster to improve on the free agent market.

Kirk, Varsho, Horwitz and Vladdy are all strong to elite players. But there are a lot of spots where, at least as things stand, the Jays are banking on rebounds or have established players in decline: Bo at SS, Springer in RF; Green, Romano, Swanson and Cabrera in the bullpen; and Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt in the rotation. (A little harsh on Berrios perhaps, since his results have been excellent this year, but all his estimators - FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA) - are at or near career worsts. The rest of the rotation seems likely to be set with Francis and Rodriguez - Rodriguez's contract makes it unlikely they'll want to move him to the bullpen.

So where are the Jays going to be able to upgrade? There's 2B, 3B and LF; and 3-4 bullpen spots. And upgrading a bullpen in free agency is, as many have argued here, probably the most difficult and worst return on investment place to buy improvement.

The difficulty about upgrading 2B or 3B is that infielders who can't handle SS are the organizational strength, and the Jays probably want to have room for guys among Wagner/Barger/Martinez/Jimenez to play. Plus Ernie Clement has been one of the Jays' best players and deserves to play everyday. Signing a 2B/3B without trading either Bo or Clement seems likely to block some talented young guys, and
if you keep Clement on the roster, any signing is likely to either block the young guys, displace Clement's strong production or both.

So the only obvious spots to upgrade are the bullpen and LF. If the Jays really want to contend, I think they need to get more creative than they've shown thus far: trade Bassitt (1 year, $21m seems more-or-less what he's worth on the market) and sign Snell would allow you to upgrade in the rotation without spending too much more for next season.

Nigel - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#452884) #

This roster is pretty much the exact opposite of a "stars and scrubs" roster where upgrading the scrubs would be an easier and more direct route out of the forest. Right now the roster tilts a bit too heavily towards excellent to elite defenders who are average or worse offensively (Varsho, Kirk, Springer, Clement, even Loperfido). 2025 rests upon a return to pre 2024 form for Bichette, adding a bat first DH/LF and finding a bullpen.

Michael - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#452886) #

When you have a roster with lots of averagish players and no obvious holes (outside of bullpen), the obvious thing if you want to improve is to go for true stars. It is "easy" to do that if you are willing to pay/over-pay. How good would the team be next year if they added Soto as the LF added offense, Burnes as a top pitcher to push all the starters back one slot, and say some of Jensen, Robertson, Pressly, Holmes, Scott, Sewald?

They'd be pretty darn good. The team this year I think has been overall unlucky (with health/performance) and is a marginal playoff contender I think with normal luck, so if you add some stars you have a definite strong team. Not clear that is really the "best" thing to do versus cheaply patching the bullpen and allowing the kids to play and hope they develop. If you could sign the big name guys to expensive 1-year deals that would be worthwhile, but I suspect people want the long term deals that make most free agent deals not work out.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#452887) #

Well, lets see....
LF: Loperfido, Schneider, Roden, Barger, Lukes, Clase, Berroa all fighting for it. Are any of them ready to produce 2+ WAR a season? No idea. It'll be interesting to see projections as they come out for everyone. Safe to say the Jays have a strong idea from their own internal systems. Free agents are Soto ($$$$), Anthony Santander ($$), Teoscar Hern�ndez ($), Tyler O�Neill ($$) among others including guys like Alex Verdugo who are bounce-back candidates (which I'd be very disappointed to see the Jays sign - rather see kids play given the quantity of them we have here).

3B: Barger, Clement, Orelvis Martinez - Clement I see as the emergency option like this year - a good guy as a backup but not someone you want playing everyday at one position. Barger has tons of promise but tons of holes too. Orelvis is very hard to guess after missing 80 games this year due to PEDs (sigh), plus his best position is probably DH. Free agents are Alex Bregman ($$$), Eugenio Su�rez ($ - mega K guy), Ha-Seong Kim ($$ super D, 100 OPS+ type, most valuable at SS not 3B).

Not a ton of options in free agency who would be improvements over what we got, and those who would be are mega expensive (Soto, Bregman). In the end I suspect it'll all come down to what the Jays think of the guys here - are those prospects they traded for ready or nearly ready? Loperfido and Barger both have shown a bit of the power we want, as has Martinez. Clase has world class speed, Roden all around talent, Schneider can carry the team for a few weeks then go 0-30., Lukes, Berroa, Clement are all guys the Jays would rather not play everyday if possible. I expect Lukes and Clement to be the primary backups for OF/IF respectively, with Schneider a backup 2B/LF. Meaning all the others are fighting to win the LF/3B positions with the DH slot being there if needed. Jays will swing for the fences with Soto and Bergman this winter but odds are will be the bridesmaid again like last winter. Hopefully this time the backup plan isn't as bad as last years (Kiermaier and Turner).

No question #1 is the bullpen though - the 4.72 ERA is 3rd worst in MLB, 36 saves, 22 blown, 82 holds (more showing how often they changed pitchers before it fell apart imo). 2023 was a 3.68 ERA (8th best), 51 saves, 18 blown, 106 holds. That is 253 runs allowed in 2023 (557 IP) vs 310 in 2024 (539 2/3 IP so far) or 57 more runs allowed in 17 1/3 fewer innings. Says something for our starters that the pen hasn't been pushed harder in 2024 than 2023. 3.91 starter ERA this year, 3.85 last year (418 runs in 2023 vs 400 this year - damn close, but 14th best ERA this year vs 3rd best last). Safe to say Francis has earned a slot in the rotation, but will they keep a slot open for Rodr�guez? Hard to say. If they flop on signing a big bopper going for a starter might be tempting. Guys like Burnes, Snell, Fried, Buehler, Bieber are out there. Also maybe Roki Sasaki from Japan (high end but likely to west coast as he'd be sub 25 thus very limited in what he could demand in $$$ thus going where he wants, not who bids best). Lots of options, but very, very expensive and risky (thus anti-current front office).

My bet is signing a non-Soto LF/DH to a shorter term (3 years or less) deal plus a crap load of relievers at various price points.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#452888) #

Trading Bassitt and signing Snell is exactly the type of move the Jays should make if they want to contend right away and stay within a reasonable payroll range. Obviously if they are okay with a $100M rotation and want to sign Snell and keep Bassitt, then go for it, but that seems like a lot to allocate to the rotation given all the holes they have. They need ceiling a lot more than floor at this point. Not sure this FO is the one to make that type of move, though. They like depth way too much, no matter how marginal it is.

This team definitely needs impact. They don't need more 1-2 WAR types. Soto is very unlikely, and not sure Alonso is a fit if Vlad is extended, so not sure where they can add impact on the offensive end. On the pitching side there are more options.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#452890) #

I'd spend the money on pitching.

On the hitting side there's enough here to expect league averagish offense from most slots, and at least one impact slot (vlad) but 2-3 (bo, horwitz) wouldn't be a surprise either.

metafour - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#452891) #

I hope the A Martin pick taught the Jays something. But what I don't know.

2020 was unfortunately the COVID draft. The draft was reduced to just 5 rounds, the NCAA season was cut short, HS games were reduced/canceled. In retrospect the entire top half of that 1st round has ended up littered with busts. I'm sure that scouting in general took a big hit across the league. Spencer Torkelson was supposed to be the safe, slugging 1B and he sucks. The best pick looks to be Garrett Crochet at #11, but its not like the White Sox are some amazing organization - they drafted him because they could push him immediately into their bullpen. He was a college reliever/starter tweener with limited IP's and a big jump in velocity. It turned out that he was able to transition to starting, but in 2020 he threw just 3.1 innings for Tennessee.

Baltimore did well in 2020. Is that due to their draft modeling finding the right players, or are they ahead in player development? Is it both? To me, the Jays have a player development problem. They largely pick "well rated" players in the draft. Austin Martin was of course the #1 player in that draft class at one point and was seen as a huge draft win. Pretty much all of the top HS players selected in that 1st round were duds as well. The best so far appears to be Pete Crow-Armstrong as a plus defender in CF.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#452892) #

Vlad is interesting for 2025 - at 3B he has now played 100 innings, had a DRS of 0, OAA of +1, UZR/150 (most ignore this) of -3.5. All far, far better than 2019 when he was a full-time 3B. Between 2019 and this year he played a total of 4 innings at 3B. In 2019 his FRV (Statcast fielding runs above average) was -15 at 3B, this year 0. At 1B he is -6 this year, after a -10 last year. Can't help but wonder if the challenge of playing more at 3B has helped his focus overall - Vlad catches me as the type who needs constant challenges to keep pushing himself.

So if Vlad moves to 3B that opens up 1B for Horwitz and leaves DH for whoever. Whoever is the backup at 3B would play a lot there while Vlad goes to DH, or Vlad slides back to 1B in late innings to keep his bat around just in case for tight games. Pete Alonso of course comes into play then, Christian Walker, and Paul Goldschmidt too. I'm not that high on Alonso though - a 134 OPS+ lifetime, peak of 147, entering his 30's, net negative on defense. Very solid hitter, but not a 'WOW', more like Horwitz 2024. Strangely hasn't had that career year yet - a 147 doesn't jump out as a career year with a 134 lifetime OPS+. Christian Walker - 114 lifetime OPS+, didn't get a full-time shot until 28, peak of 125 OPS+, 3 straight 120+ OPS+ years, 2 gold gloves, net positive on dWAR lifetime (not easy at 1B/DH), but entering his age 34 season. In truth, I'd lean more towards Walker as he'd be cheaper in years and dollars most likely. Goldschmidt I expect to stay in St Louis, retire, or go somewhere near wherever he lives (grew up in Texas) so not an option for the Jays outside of a gross overpay (96 OPS+ this year suggests that'd be a poor idea).

This winter will be quite interesting to watch. I expect Vlad to hold off on signing an extension until Soto signs somewhere, then try to use that as a target in his negotiations. Hopefully I'm wrong and he really wants to be a one team guy like Jos� Ram�rez does (increases HOF odds slightly) and signs here at a reasonable price. The 1B/3B situation will be largely dependent on Vlad, the LF/DH will be on Soto and the others. How the kids do these final few days could influence it a bit, but not drastically. Odds are the Jays have decided how they want to proceed and what their top targets are by now.

92-93 - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#452893) #

They need to add a hitter, and really it should be two. They also need to add a frontline SP. Hopefully they can get one of the bats via trade, because they won't spend enough to augment the roster properly.

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#452894) #

"The team this year I think has been overall unlucky (with health/performance)"

I'd mostly agree on the performance side, but on the whole, I think we've done pretty well in terms of health. Bo out for half the season, Romano and Manoah for most of it. But that's actually pretty good. Dan Szymborski ran an estimate a month back, and the Jays had the second-best health in MLB at that point, measured by expected WAR lost to injury.

Another reason to be pessimistic about the 2025 Jays, as 73-84 and a -56 run differential is what they've managed this year with good health.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#452896) #

Current Forward Looking Projections:

* 3B Guerrero (26) 151wrc+
* 1B Horwitz (27) 120wrc+
* SS Bichette (27) 112wrc+
* C Kirk (26) 111wrc+
* RF Springer (35) 109wrc+
* LF Roden (25) 107wrc+
* CF Varsho (28) 104wrc+
* 2B Wagner (26) 103wrc+
* DH Lukes (30) 103wrc+

* UT Schneider (26) 103wrc+
* UT Barger (25) 98wrc+
* IF Clement (29) 97wrc+
* C Heineman (34) 83wrc+

* IF Jimenez (24) 94wrc+
* UT Orelvis (23) 93wrc+
* OF Clase (23) 82wrc+
* C Henry (28) 82wrc+

* OF Loperfido (26) 86wrc+
* IF Kasevich (24) 79wrc+
* OF Berroa (26) 75wrc+
* C Raposo (27) 67wrc+

* SP Gausman (34) 6.0ip/gs, 3.68era, 3.61fip
* SP Bassitt (36) 6.0ip/gs, 3.91era, 4.04fip
* SP Berrios (31) 6.0ip/gs, 4.26era, 4.27fip
* SP Francis (29) 5.0ip/gs, 4.36era, 4.51fip
* SP Rodriguez (28) 4.0ip/gs, 4.06era, 4.07fip

* SP Tiedemann (22) ???ip/gs, 3.93era, 4.21fip
* SP Manoah (27) ???ip/gs, 4.45era, 4.52fip
* SP Bloss (24) ???ip/gs, 4.75era, 4.88fip

* RP Burr (31) 3.58era, 3.69fip
* RP Romano (32) 3.71era, 3.86fip
* RP Robertson (26) 3.92era, 3.97fip
* RP Green (34) 3.96era, 3.96fip
* RP Eisert (27) 3.98era, 4.00fip
* RP Ramirez (30) 3.98era, 4.17fip
* RP Frias (27) 4.06era, 4.19fip

* RP Fluharty (23) 3.99era, 4.33fip
* RP Lucas (28) 4.08era, 4.35fip
* RP Swanson (31) 4.26era, 4.31fip
* RP Little (28) 4.19era, 4.43fip
* RP Juenger (24) 4.16era, 4.38fip
* RP Tate (31) 4.32era, 4.21fip
* RP Nance (34) 4.46era, 4.16fip

* RP Cabrera (28) 4.31era, 4.50fip
* RP Bash (28) 4.37era, 4.64fip
* RP Yarborough (33) 4.49era, 4.54fip
* RP Pop (28) 4.64era, 4.56fip
* RP De Geus (27) 5.24era, 4.68fip
* RP Espino (38) 5.29era, 5.36fip

scottt - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#452897) #

The biggest mistake would be to spend on starting pitching.
They can't score runs. They need guys who hit long balls.

Snell is the worst guy they could go after.
He's mister 5 innings. That means the pen has to carry him even when he's healthy.
He's won 5 games all year.

Yarbrough would be a good pick up.
A good left handed long man on a team without a lefty in the rotation.
Not convinced he would like to be here, but that looks like a great fit.

If you're willing to let Vladdy split time between first and third, then Clement is good enough there.

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#452898) #

Snell is more a 5 2/3rds guy when you take into account that he was eased in slowly this year because of his late start. That's also where he was last year. And it's right around where Bassitt and Gausman have been this year.

Snell does average fewer innings than comparable top starters, but the overall length of starters is way down. The two presumptive Cy Youngs are averaging just over 6 innings per start, and I just don't regard half an inning pitched per start as a particularly important matter.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#452899) #

But it's pretty significant - it's about 10% more.

And theoretically likely the hardest 10% more (i.e. when the pitcher is most tired).

a 10% difference in performance is a big deal.

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#452900) #

If Blake Snell were 10% better than he is, that would be great; but he's quite valuable as it is.

Nigel - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#452901) #

The health of the pitching staff the past two years has been pretty remarkable. If its just luck then there's a looming iceberg coming soon. I think its a combination of factors of which luck is definitely one element. I've decried the payroll tied up in veteran pitchers for which the Jays have really been getting no surplus value. That's mainly true, but you do need to credit that in Berrios, Gausman and Bassitt (and before that Kikuchi) they have targeted starters who have demonstrated an ability to stay healthy. I also think Walker deserves some credit here too - how much I don't know.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#452902) #

I feel pretty good about the FAs I was hoping the Blue Jays would sign in the off-season. Ohtani and Yamamoto, of course (like many of us). But also Chapman, Snell, Yariel, Bellinger, Gray, Imanaga, Gurriel Jr.

I also had my share of misses (some of these were plan B or C or D choices once other players came off the board): Jung Hoo Lee, Candelario, Soler, Kimbrel

Nigel - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#452903) #

Duran is one heck of a player and having a fabulous season but its remarkable to me that he's probably been only the 4th best player in the AL East (Judge, Henderson and Soto (in that order)) this year.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#452904) #

Starting pitching is very important - 5 slots, if all 5 are aces your opponents are screwed even if your offense is crap. Some feel (with good reason) that FIP is better than ERA for forward viewing - takes out a chunk of the luck factor (BABIP) but still has limits of course. xFIP adjusts for flyball luck iirc. So lets take a look at xFIP...

Francis 3.92, Gausman 4.17, Manoah 4.19, Berrios 4.24, Bassitt 4.28, Rodriguez 4.44 - dang is that tight between the non-Francis crowd - cut down to August-now and it shifts - Berrios 3.51, Francis 3.74, Bassitt 4.23, Rodriguez 4.39, Gausman 4.74. So very tight for the season with Francis well ahead, but since August Berrios has been damn good, Francis counting on extremely low BABIP (damn fun to watch), the rest about the same but Gausman having issues despite his ERA being nice at 2.77. So, do you stick with these 5 or do you spend an arm and leg to get another guy in? I see it as a plan B (unable to get a big bat for LF or DH)

Shane Bieber: 0 ERA 0.59 xFIP in just 12 IP - had TJ surgery in April, so likely back mid-season like Manoah will be - so a decent one to get if you want a lot of mid-season depth and trust the current 5 to get us there
Corbin Burnes: 2.95 ERA 3.63 xFIP, entering age 30 season, 3 years in a row of 189+ IP - would be nice to steal from the O's but would be expensive (to put it mildly)
Blake Snell: 3.12 ERA 3.02 xFIP, just 104 IP (130+ just twice in his career, both Cy years). Very valuable when healthy for the innings he is out there but dang is he a frustrating guy. Would want $30+ mil a year for 5, but probably is looking at $100/3 years max given his limits. Could be a good fit with the depth here (5 ready to go, a 6th in Manoah returning mid-season)
Max Fried: 3.42 ERA, 3.36 xFIP. Would be nice but will be expensive. Entering age 31 season.
Walker Buehler: missed 2023, just 15 games this year 5.63 ERA 4.49 xFIP but was a 5 WAR guy his last two full, healthy seasons (2021, 2019) - a high risk/high reward guy

So 1 injured guy, 1 high risk guy, 3 #1's. It'll be interesting to see where they go and what they get. Will the Jays roll the dice on one? We'll see, but hopefully they find a big bat instead.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#452905) #

Sigh - once the pen is involved it seems like a waste of time to keep watching doesn't it? Blown save, tons of hits to fall way behind in the 10th.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2024 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#452906) #

Well, they made it interesting with the tying run at 3B but ... sigh. Glad they did all the pinch running - why have speed if you don't use it? Didn't make a difference but it could've.

Ducey - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#452907) #

No help on the out of town scoreboard.

PIT, CIN, and TEX all lost.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#452909) #

Sale on the Red Sox probably means a playoff spot - wonder how that's gone down in Boston.

Jonny German - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#452910) #

I disagree with the sentiment that it will be difficult or tricky to upgrade the offence for 2025. The 2024 Jays have been well below-average at 4 positions and it's very easy to see how they'll improve them in 2025:

Shortstop - OPS .669, sOPS+ 84 (i.e. 16 percentage points worse than league average)
This is of course entirely about Bo's terrible season - in the previous 3 seasons the Jays averaged 25 points better than league average for shortsop offense. A Bo bounce back will be a huge gain here, even if it's only half way to his previous levels.

Left field - OPS .655, sOPS+ 82
Easiest position on the field to find a good hitter. Even a platoon of Lukes & Schneider would be projected to do better than a .655 OPS.

Centre field - OPS .624, sOPS+ 79
This is not Varsho, this is the 40% of the centre field playing time that went to Kiermaier and his .546 OPS.

Right field - OPS .645, sOPS+ 77 (worst position on the team!)
The surprising thing here isn't that Springer has been below average, but that he's not actually the biggest problem. Barger, Biggio, and Berroa covered 23% of the right field innings and they collectively put up a .518 OPS there. That's over 150 points of OPS worse than what Springer has done.
For 2025 I'm not expecting a huge bounce back for Springer. But I am expecting that another season like this one will see him out of the leadoff spot by the end of April and into the 4th outfielder role by the end of May. And with that it'll be Alan Roden time.

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#452911) #

It's not luck. They signed starting pitchers who were known to be durable.

Glevin - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#452913) #

I also don't think it's very hard to upgrade the offense. LF by far the easiest place. Going from Schneider to O'Neill or Profar or whomever would be a massive and easy upgrade. Let Roden/someone play Vs RHP in RF would be pretty significant upgrade there. Having Bo being healthy and not sucking would be massive upgrade. I think Wagner is a pretty big upgrade on Biggio. It's not just getting guys with better numbers, it's also not giving so many abs to guys with terrible numbers. Jays offense doesn't need much to get a lot better.

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#452915) #

Profar debuted at 19. He's 31. He's having a career year. He has a .853 OPS in a year where offense is down.
He's never had a .800 OPS before. He's been around a .650 OPS 4 times, career 99 OPS+.
That looks like long odds to me.

Glevin - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#452916) #

Profar's season does not look like fluke to me. Remember, this is also a guy who was the #1 prospect in baseball a decade ago and who was in the majors at 19 so he's always had talent. His statcast offensive numbers are very red. He hits the ball hard, doesn't chase. He's a very good hitter. He'll be 32 next year so I wouldn't give him some long-term contract or anything but I would expect him to be a very good hitter for 2-3 more years and would happily sign him for that length.

bpoz - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#452917) #

The last rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline and the new rebuild started at the 2024 trade deadline. So 6 years.

There was a lot more payroll available for the 2018 rebuild.

Ducey - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#452918) #

Profar's season sure looks like a one off to me.

His hard hit % is 45%, which is nice. But it has never been above 34.6% and that was way back in 2018. His BAbip is .305 which is the highest of his career.

Maybe he is the next late developing Jose Bautista, but if the Jays are going to get a LF bat, they should get someone who is more of sure thing.

Glevin - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#452920) #

"His hard hit % is 45%, which is nice. But it has never been above 34.6% and that was way back in 2018. His BAbip is .305 which is the highest of his career."

I don't understand this. A player who fundamentally improves is also going to improve underlying numbers. You would expect him to have the best numbers of his career. How can he possibly improve otherwise? "It's a fluke because he's better than he was before" is a circular argument. For me, there are a few questions to ask.

1) Are his numbers sustainable? He's been a bit lucky but not insanely so. His statcast shows legitimate reasons for these amazing numbers. He's 90th percentile or above in 6 major offensive categories. His OBP and SLG are .384 and .469. Is expected OBA/SLG are .366 and .450 so his OPS would go from 16th best in baseball to 26th best in baseball which is still great especially since Petco is one of the worst stadiums for hitters in baseball. A perfect example of an obvious fluke was 2022 Andres Gimenez. He had .353 BABIP with pretty poor statcast numbers after a .273 BABIP the year before. He regressed as everyone predicted. Profar has a .305 BABIP with great underlying indicators. Just not remotely similar.
2) Is it based on fluky hot streak like Davis Schneider last year? Nope. 6 months of the season, only one had month with a WRC+ of under 130. (102)
3) Is there anything non-statistical that can explain anything? Yes. Profar changed his swing and stance significantly adding a leg kick and opening his stance.

I don't expect a 143 RC+ next year but I would definitely expect a 120-130 sort of thing which is very good. The fact that he's only done it once may make him cheaper.

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#452921) #

Profar is exactly the type of player to avoid. Let someone else pay the premium FA cost for a one-year wonder. The Jays were lucky to get out from under the IKF contract (he turned back into a pumpkin in PIT) and this smells similar... or perhaps the Grichuk contract - fringe regular.

2025 should be a rebuilding year. Let Loperfido, Clase, Barger, Roden, and Lukes battle it out. Let the kids play.

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#452922) #

Look at it this way. He's not a guy who's been 98 OPS+ for 5 years and now has figured something and is at 138 OPS+.
He's a guy who's had ups and down over the last 12 years.
He's had OPS+ of 75, 33, 107, 91, 114, 83, 109, 81, 78, 115 and now 138.
He's at 24 HR and he's hit 20 before, but 5 and 6 years ago and that last one he was hitting .218.

He's like IKF and the Jays chose to sell high on him.
I would project Profar to be an average bat. Maybe he's better than that, maybe he's worse, but I think it's 50/50.

GabrielSyme - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#452923) #

I like Profar, but I'm not sure there's a world of difference between what we should expect out of Profar, Santander, O'Neill and Teoscar. I'd be happy with any of them in LF, taking some DH at-bats. If Roden or Loperfido forces the issue, I think you have to look at reducing Springer's playing time or finding a bad-contract swap.

More broadly, I do agree that offense is likely to improve with a full season of Horwitz, a free agent LF, possible bouncebacks from Bo and, to a lesser degree, Kirk and Springer, and the possible emergence of Wagner, Barger, Roden, etc. But to contend, there really needs to be substantial improvement both in the lineup and on the mound, and I don't think the organic improvement in the lineup will be anything like enough to put the Jays back in the postseason. The offense was actually above average this year, the weakness was the pitching staff, and it's probably harder to improve; although the bullpen really can't be worse.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#452924) #

agree with that Marc.

and the strength of our FO is that signing high on a one big year player is something that goes against everything they believe in so I don't think it's worth thinking about too much.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#452925) #

fangraphs combined rest of season projections

* Teoscar 129wrc+
* Santander 126wrc+
* O'Neill 122wrc+
* Profar 118wrc+

all with middling corner OF defense.

grabbing whichever one of those guys ends up being cheapest might be the right idea.

92-93 - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#452926) #

Profar will be the cheapest. The Jays need to aim higher.

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#452927) #

I don't understand the rebuilding thing.
What is there to rebuild?
Where are the prospects? They are already in Toronto.
If they want to play they need to earn the playing time.

Loperfido and Clase could be the next Jo Adell.
Adell is now over 1000 PA and below replacement value but he's playing in Anaheim because they're rebuilding.
The Jays need some power bats, if none of these guys project to hit 30 HR than what's the point of letting them play?
To build some value to trade them for prospects that will be here in 2028?

Who knows how Varsho will recover. CF could be open for most of next year.
If Springer doesn't improve, the 4th outfielder should get some playing time.
There's no need to save LF for a toolsy prospect.

The Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies are all dominating with free agents.
Why is Toronto not allowed to do the same?

SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#452928) #

The more I look at the Jays situation and the FA market, the more I think Vlad at 3B is the way to go. I don't expect him to be good there (the arm might compensate for some of that) but a motivated-to-get-paid Vlad playing the position he prefers playing could be a boost for him, and it would allow the Jays to focus on upgrading DH/1B (whichever Horwitz doesn't play) and LF, which are easier positions to fill offensively than 3B. I really don't want to see Clement get 450-500 PA again, and Barger isn't a high enough upside guy to put there and deal with the bad defense. Stick Vlad there and signing someone like Christian Walker probably helps the team a lot more than Vlad at 1B and trying to find a 3B in the FA or trade market (or sticking Clement there).

I agree with the notion of adding two bats and trading for one of them. Not sure who is available trade-wise. Wouldn't mind seeing the Jayys buy low on someone like Jesus Sanchez who hasn't put it together in Miami but has performance indicators that show a breakout is very possible. Not sure the Marlins would trade him, but they are cheap, so you never know.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#452929) #

I really liked Profar as a buy low candidate last winter but I'm not willing to pay for his breakout season at his age.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#452930) #

The Padres are having a great season despite trading away their best hitter - Be bold Mark Shapiro.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#452931) #

I wouldn�t be surprised if the Blue Jays keep Vladdy for 2025 and then let him walk via free agency. The sweet spot of shared risk may not be there for Shapiro/Rogers. They may not be able to get a comparable trade package for Vladdy (multiple players headlined by a player like Michael King).

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#452932) #

Maybe 40% chance he�s on the team but walks after 2025, 20% chance the Blue Jays trade him, 40% chance they extend him.

GabrielSyme - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#452933) #

Marc is right that 2025 looks like it ought to be a rebuilding year; but that doesn't seem to be a direction the organisation wants to go in. So if contention is the goal, how best to go about it?

As contention is perhaps a bit of a stretch, one thing that should be considered is adding higher variance options, particularly as our IF and OF depth is relatively strong. Profar would fit that model at least. Shifting Vlad to 3B and adding a 1B is also a high-variance strategy. I doubt somewhat that the Giants would consider it, but they are neither strong nor deep in the outfield, so maybe a Springer for Robbie Ray bad-contract swap could be worked out. Ray has come back throwing hard and getting lots of Ks, so just possibly something approaching the Cy Young version of Ray is still there.

Michael - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#452934) #

2025 doesn't make sense as a rebuilding if you have the last year of Vlad and Bo. If you trade them, then yes rebuild makes sense. If you extend one or both, you might not need to go all in this year. But if you neither trade nor extend this should be a go "all in" or at least go "some in" to be competitive this year.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#452935) #

The 1B/3B situation I suspect depends a lot on what is possible. If a high end 3B can be had (Alex Bregman the obvious name that comes up, Eugenio Su�rez looks solid, don't see others as being available in trade who could be 3+ WAR guys) then great, keep Vlad/Horwitz at 1B/DH. If not, then Vlad to 3B becomes a lot more of a possibility. Clement and Barger are the backup plan if Vlad flops there (unlikely).

1B/DH in free agency has 1001 options, which is best depends on price/willingness to come here. Also trades are possible - only 4 1B had 3+ fWAR - Vlad, Harper, Freeman, Salvador Perez. Oakland might be able to be talked into trading Brent Rooker (DH/corner OF) but he isn't a free agent until after 2027 so they might want to hold him for now, but he is entering arbitration this year and they are super-cheap. All depends, but damn if he wouldn't look nice at DH/rare OF.

So there are options, it all depends how the Jays want to go about it. There is no question the cash is there if needed given the recent history of the team (and long term history). When the Jays are winning the stadium is packed and TV ratings through the roof. When losing both go down, hard and fast.

92-93 - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#452936) #

Just give Oakland whoever they want not named Nimmala for Rooker and Miller.

Ducey - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#452937) #

The Jays have the 28th ranked farm system.

They also have a host of pending FA over the next few years.

Trading the few good prospects they have is not really an option unless they want to go full rebuild for 5 years.

Its not like this is a championship club that is trying to win the World Series. This is 23rd best team that is trying to just be competitive so the management group can keep their jobs.

If they cannot sign Vlad this winter, they have to trade him by spring. His value will not be higher, and those players coming back can help moving forward relatively soon.

If they do sign him, they need somebody to play with him for the next decade. Going all in for 2025 makes no sense. But they could certainly look to add a couple of FA that might want some term.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#452938) #

The new CBA and draft lottery rules make it less appealing to do a full scale rebuild as they wouldn't be able to accumulate multiple top 5 picks in succession. Going for it in 2025 is a lot less egregious of a decision than it was in 2018, though it may play out the same way on the field.

The FO's best bet might be to add to the existing team but prioritize playing time for the young players at the same time. I absolutely do not trust this FO (or John Schneider) to operate like that, at least not effectively, given how they used veterans this season. I'd expect them to give Springer 600 PA next season regardless of performance before I'd expect them to use him as a 4th OF in favor of Roden, for example.

Nigel - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#452939) #

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure that "anyone not named Nimmala" gets your Rooker and Miller - unless the A's are into the whole volumetric thing.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#452940) #

The pieces are there to be a bubble playoffs team next year, especially with 1 or 2 additions, which is what this FO has always aimed for (and what most of the FO's supporters believed was always the right strategy) so there's no blow up or rebuild coming. This deadline was a pretty good blow up and vastly improved the youthful position player depth.

Enough that spending on a non-elite position player doesn't make much sense IMO.

Spending on a good starter, tho, would be a significant upgrade for both the rotation and the pen, and is by far the best means of upgrading the team given our awful lack of depth there.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#452941) #

Bichette is going to have surgery on his finger.

Injuries could be a factor next year. What if Varsho�s shoulder is slow to heal? He�s an important player on the team.

Glevin - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#452942) #

Absolute mess in Atlanta. Mets and Braves both had off day on Monday and knew weather on Wednesday/Thursday would be unplayable. Braves wanted big gate numbers though so didn't want to move games and now they will have to play doubleheader on Monday before winner has games Tuesday, Wednesday, and potentially Thursday. MLB should have stepped in.

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#452943) #

The Jays cooked themselves with poor development, drafting and scouting. You just can't fill a lot of holes with good players on the FA market these days (plus Toronto is not a desired location) and they don't have the players to make impact trades without taking away from the big league roster (that doesn't have much anyway).

That's why they need to rebuild despite Guerrero Jr. and Bichette.

I was the one that said back in March the Jays would finish fifth. I have no rose coloured glasses. It was obvious if you looked at it objectively enough (I almost called the whole AL East but had Bos and TB flipped thinking the latter would outperform my projection due to previous years succeeding from nothing).

Not much has changed TBH other than the return to form for Vladdy. A few rookies looked ok but the starters will be yet another year older (with some hope Francis' breakout was real) and the bullpen was awful. The org handled injuries (and strength/conditioning) terribly in the majors and minors. Etc etc... there is just no clear and/or easy path the legitimately and realistically get better in a hurry.

New York will always be good.
Baltimore is a great team that just needs a little more pitching (and now has financial backing)
Boston has intriguing up-and-coming players at the MLB and MiLB level
And TB always finds talent and their pit hing is getting healthy again.

Kelekin - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#452944) #

I am with UO - we need another good starter. This is the problem with team building year in and year out. If you look at where your team is strong and weak, and only focus on weak, that strength becomes a weakness real quick. There are plenty of concerning signs with the rotation, that are simply covered up by our comparatively elite defense. Then add another year of mileage to the arms.

A couple of good bullpen arms, an OF power bat (preferably righty), backup catcher, and a great starter. Then let the kids play.

Nigel - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#452945) #

As someone who thinks contending in 2025 is a longshot, I'm good with anything so long as it doesn't significantly impact the ability to contend in 2026 or later.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#452946) #

I have to say that Marc Hulet hit the nail on the head. Couldn't agree more.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#452947) #

I agree with Marc if it's to explain why they are not realistically a world series contender, but not if its an argument for making the playoffs. Bo had the worst year ever and if the FO kept Kikuchi and shored the bullpen they probably sneak in to the playoffs. So again, this team was good enough to get in but only barely so and I agree with others that this team had no chance to go far.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#452948) #

The team needed to add a 5 win player in the off-season (which we talked about at the time). This could have been Ohtani or Soto. Or Chapman (as it turned out). If they had added a player like that -- or gotten lucky with an overachieving free agent like Profar or Pederson -- and Bichette had been healthy and productive, the season might have looked different.

But I agree that the Blue Jays' organizational problems seem to run deep and the team probably needs more than one or two good players to become championship calibre again (at the level they were in 2021).

uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#452949) #

calling this team to be 5th wasn't unreasonable but i'd still argue this team significantly underperformed median expectations this year.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#452950) #

Last Year ----> Preseason Projections ----> This Year

Overachievers

* Guerrero 118wrc+, 1.3war ---> 138wrc+, 3.6war ---> 166wrc+, 5.4war
* Falefa 79wrc+, 0.5war ---> 83wrc+, 0.9war ---> 96wrc+, 2.0war
* Horwitz 106wrc+, 0.1war ---> 108wrc+, 0.1war ---> 129wrc+, 1.9war

Near Expectations

* Bassitt 3.60era, 2.5war ---> 4.01era, 2.9war ---> 4.16era, 2.2war
* Berrios 3.65era, 2.8war ---> 4.10era, 2.4war ---> 3.38era, 1.1war
* Kikuchi 3.86era, 2.4war ---> 4.18era, 1.9war ---> 4.19era, 3.3war
* Kirk 96wrc+, 2.3war ---> 116wrc+, 3.1war ---> 93wrc+, 2.8war
* Varsho 85wrc+, 2.1war ---> 106wrc+, 2.8war ---> 99wrc+, 3.3war
* Turner 114wrc+, 1.0war ---> 108wrc+, 1.6war ---> 115wrc+, 1.2war
* Springer 104wrc+, 1.8war ---> 113wrc+, 2.8war ---> 94wrc+, 1.2war
* Garcia 4.09era, 1.0war ---> 3.89era, 0.5war ---> 3.46era 0.4war
* Clement 144wrc+, 0.6war ---> 93wrc+, 0.6war ---> 94wrc+, 2.1war
* Richards 4.93era, 0.3war ---> 4.01era, 0.1war ---> 4.55era, 0.1war

Underachievers

* Gausman 3.16era, 5.2war ---> 3.45era, 4.4war ---> 3.91era, 2.8war
* Bichette 124wrc+, 3.9war ---> 122wrc+, 4.1war ---> 70wrc+, 0.3war
* Kiermaier 104wrc+, 2.8war ---> 89wrc+, 1.7war ---> 49wrc+, 0.2war
* Jansen 115wrc+, 2.0war ---> 114wrc+, 1.8war ---> 91wrc+, 0.6war
* Schneider 176wrc+, 1.9war ---> 112wrc+, 1.9war ---> 82wrc+, 0.6war
* Romano 2.90era, 1.2war ---> 3.51era, 0.9war ---> 6.59era, -0.3war
* Mayza 2.52era, 1.3war ---> 3.51era, 0.3wwar ---> 6.48era, -0.2war
* Swanson 2.97era, 0.9war ---> 3.72era, 0.6war ---> 5.40era, -0.8war
* Biggio 102wrc+, 0.9war ---> 98wrc+, 1.0war ---> 84wrc+, 0.1war
* Vogelbach 108wrc+, 0.2war ---> 113wrc+, 0.1war ---> 69wrc+, -0.3war

yeah i think the ledger is solidly in the underachievers' favour tbh.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#452951) #

Clase with a better MLB line now than he had in AAA.

Maybe he was sulking.

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#452952) #

Profar looks a lot like Javier Baez before Detroit gave him that contract.
Baez is now a career 95 OPS+ but he hit 31 HR in 2021 for a 140 OPS+.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#452953) #

Profar's year might be a fluke, but he was a great signing by San Diego -- arguably the best move of the offseason. Preller went out and got Profar (4.6 WAR this year) while the Blue Jays and Atkins were in a state of deep reflection about whether Turner (who ended up posting 1.2 WAR) or Soler (1.0 WAR) would be the better choice.

Price tags:

Soler: 3/$42m

Turner: 1/$13m

Profar 1/$1m

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#452954) #

What makes the Yankees good is the refusal to do long rebuilds.That and their prospects are always overrated.
It's pretty thin after Judge. Volpe. Austin Wells, Dominguez and Cabrera.
The rotation has one pitcher they developed, Schmidt.
The pen has a single homegrown reliever, Kahnle.

It's the same with the Dodgers. They have a great system but they have only 2 players from their farm; Smith and Lux who is terrible.
They do have a bunch of starters, 8 if you count the 5 on the IL, but only 1 reliever came from their own development.

The Phillies have Bohm, Bryson Stott and Johan Rojas.
Only 2 starters, Nola and Suarez.
Only 2 relievers, Orion Kerkering and Tyler Gilbert.

So, it's not like the Jays stick out as a team that produces no talent.
It's just that they produce guys like Horwitz or Kevin Pillar.

The Jays aren't that different from the 20-23 teams.
Unless they trade Bo.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#452955) #

Nobody wanted Profar - He signed for a mere 1M and with the Padres probably because of the longstanding relationship with Preller dating back to their Texas days.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#452956) #

That�s what makes it a great signing. When you acquire a player extremely cheaply on a one-year deal � a player no one wanted � and he turns in a 5 WAR season�that is a rare and felicitous occurrence.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 25 2024 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#452957) #

Clase looks like one of those guys who is fun to have on a team - the Temu version of Rickey Henderson. Not anywhere near as good but all the same skills - speed, power, ability to get on base - just at a much lower level. This winter I'd see if the Jays could get a premium leadoff guy - either Henderson or Raines, or find someone who is excellent at teaching leadoff skills (walks, bunts, stealing) - to spent time with Clase and help him move to the next level. Also have him work on playing LF since that is where the playing time is for 2025 and 2026 (Varsho under team control those years).

If any one of Clase (via Garcia), Wagner, Loperfido, or Bloss (via Kikuchi) can make it as a regular in the majors (or as a starter in Bloss' case) then this trading season will have been a success imo. None of the others, outside of Schreck & McAdoo, really showed enough to get me excited this year, but who knows? Maybe some will be useful pieces in backup roles or as parts of trades. Remember, all the guys traded were gone after 2024 or after 2025 outside of Nate Pearson (free agent post 2026, but I felt he was marginal to make the 2025 team even with the pen issues - just 4 walks in 20 IP for the Cubs, go figure, his K/9 is down below 8 now though)

I'd be good with Clase as leadoff or having Clase/Loperfido/Roden in the AAA outfield (have Lukes as the backup here, sign someone to play LF, Berroa becomes the AAA backup, while Schreck is the DH rotating into the field here and there).

pooks137 - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#452958) #

The overall direction of the offseason really hinges on 3 potential positions:

1) Vlad resigns and the FO reloads to compete
2) Vlad opts to go to FA, the FO trades him to retool
3) Vlad and the FO rag the puck, both choosing to do nothing and playing out the status quo for 2025

The problem is that the FO doesn't have complete agency over Vlad to complete Option 1. He could make the personal decision to go to market in 2026 regardless of any extension offer.

So unfortunately Option 3 is the most likely inertia outcome for the FO.

There's also a great danger that the Vlad dilemma and paralysis drags well into the 2025 offseason much like the Ohtani decision led to the Jays settling for Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier in 2024.

adrianveidt - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#452959) #

So, they've got one of the highest payrolls in baseball, which was used to lose a lot of games, and a terrible farm system.

The roster is mostly comprised of aging, expensive players, with no young players in the pipeline. It would seem to be difficult to fix all of these problems in one offseason.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#452960) #

I think this team could compete for a WC spot next season. They would need to make a few savvy moves to address the team�s weaknesses.

Initiating a rebuild by trading Vladdy and Bo is also an option, but that seems highly unlikely to happen.

Jonny German - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#452961) #

George Springer is literally the only position player on the team that fits your description.

There are 3 on the pitching side, but it's only Chris Bassitt who is starting to look questionable in terms of being a positive contributor.

Glevin - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#452962) #

People are way too negative. I've changed my opinion a bit in the last month because I don't think I realized how completely mediocre almost every team in baseball is. I mean Tigers aren't any good and sold at the deadline and are still now a playoff team. The Jays absolutely shouldn't be trading Nimmala or Yesavage or anything but they should be trying to compete without sacrificing top prospects and they do have a lot of AAA guys with some value and no room to play and it would be a good idea to trade a couple.

The Jays aren't a great team and aren't going to become a great team. Where I think people are wrong is overrating other teams and their issues. Look at Yankees. Soto, Holmes, and Torres are all free agents. Even if they managed to sign all three of them back, what's their path to being a better team? Judge, Stanton, and Soto were worth a combined 10 WAR more this season than last season. If those guys were as good as they were last year, Yankees would be chasing a wildcard with Twins and Mariners. Almost every team has major problems and will have next year as well. Jays should extend Vlad, sign a free agent or two, trade some AAA players for players that fit them better and then see if they can get into the playoffs. If they are out of it, you can always trade guys but almost all baseball teams are so mediocre now that unless you are like the White Sox, it doesn't make any sense to give up before the season.

bpoz - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#452963) #

Regarding old SPs Charlie Morton will be 41 in Nov. He has stayed healthy and pretty good all the time. C Sale will be 36 next March. He suffered injuries starting in 2019 and so not good. But healthy for 2024 he is now Cy Young performing. Both pitchers were given extensions. C Morton has worked out.

K Gausman will be 34 in Jan. He has had an up and down career until coming to Toronto where he has been mainly good.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#452964) #

Yesavage could be a factor in the rotation next year. He has good stuff and is apparently pretty polished. That might lessen the need to go out and get a big rotation arm. Although adding a quality SP and bumping Rodriguez to the bullpen (noting that he could return to the rotation if needed in the event of injury) would arguably be a smart move to make.

92-93 - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#452965) #

A good start can mask mediocrity, both for players and teams. The Orioles have played .500 ball for basically 4 months now.

There's no good reason why the Jays can't be competitive in 2025 and beyond.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#452966) #

I look forward to seeing how the youthful O's (#22 payroll in MLB) do in the postseason. Hopefully the Blue Jays (#9 payroll) can win a postseason game at some point in the next few years. Was 2016 the last time that happened?

SK in NJ - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#452967) #

Trying to be competitive in 2025 without sacrificing top prospects is the right way to go. The baseball landscape is different now than it was in 2017-18 when the Jays faced a similar decision. A full scale rebuild with the new lottery structure is not advantageous to teams like it was when the Orioles did it last, and the White Sox will find that out soon enough.

The only issue is whether you trust the FO to get creative and operate in a way that can balance "going for it" with internal development. After what we saw in 2024, I don't think they are good enough to do that effectively, but that's really the only way to climb out of this relatively quickly without a massive drop off first. For instance, as mentioned before, would this FO trade Bassitt if there was a taker for him and used the saved money to acquire someone who is at least 1 or 2 of younger/better/more upside? A smart FO that wants to creatively pivot in the short-term would consider it, but I don't see a FO that is obsessed with depth, no matter how marginal it is, operating in that way (bird in the hand). Then again they traded IKF at the right time, so maybe I am underestimating them.

Either way, I'm fully on board with trying to compete in 2025, and then pivoting at the deadline if it fails. I didn't like that strategy as much in 2018 (even though I understood the business reasoning) but I think it makes way more sense now.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#452968) #

Rotation strength and depth can go south in a hurry. For that reason, I wouldn�t be too quick to trade Bassitt (who wouldn�t have a ton of trade value in any event).

bpoz - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#452969) #

I totally agree with Glevin that almost all the teams in baseball are mediocre or to put it another way all are competitive for a playoff spot.

So using CWS as an example of a bad team. What are they doing? I assume they are rebuilding. They got worse by trading D Cease and could trade G Crochet. They have success drafting LHPs and have N Schultz and H Smith in their system. They are being penalized on their #1 pick this coming draft but will pick high in all the other rounds which should help. So maybe 2 more years of being bad.

LAD and NYY not making the playoffs is practically unthinkable for their fanbase so they should always get in IMO.

As we go into the last series of the season only 7 AL teams have been eliminated by my calculations. So meaningful baseball is being played practically all season.

The Jays will/could be mediocre/competitive next year without making any expensive additions IMO. So without adding a big bat or good SP. Both should be expensive unless they get a 1 or 2 year Turner or Belt. A 3 year Bassitt at $20/yr is expensive a 3 year Kikuchi at $12/yr is not expensive. I consider Loperfido's 236 ABs inexperienced. D Schneiders 506ABs experienced sort off. Horwitz 356ABs is inexperienced. So inexperience is a flaw for 2025. I accept that. And still think we can compete with strong pitching which should come from Green/Swanson and someone like A Macko could get a promotion to the pen eventually.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#452970) #

To me the first order of business this offseason should be locking up Vlad to a long term contract. Besides showing, despite what some people thought, that he doesn't need minor league parks to hit well in, he is now the face of the franchise and he's just entering his prime years.

As for Bo Bichette, it's a difficult call. The Bichette of the previous 3 years was a good player, one of the top hitters in baseball, but this year was putrid. I'd hesitate to extend him but his value isn't that high right now. Maybe wait until the trade deadline next season and hope to get more in return.

Did anyone notice that Pittsburgh DFA'd Rowdy Tellez when he needed 4 at bats to get to an amount that would have paid him a $200,000 bonus? That's not a way to attract free agents in the future.

Ducey - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#452971) #

I'm good with a rebuild (trading Vlad, Bassett, Bo, Gausman, Berrios this winter).

But I keep coming back to the farm system. BA just ranked them 28th. Thats embarrassing. I just dont trust this front office to make any decisions on the drafting/ development front.

If they keep these jokers, then muddling along is about all I can hope for. A rebuild doesnt work if you cant draft and develop.

But I still dont see how this works going into 2026. Vlad and Bo will be gone for QO compensation. Bassett will be gone for nothing. The opportunity to reset the team will really have been lost.

Michael - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#452972) #

"Almost every team has major problems and will have next year as well"

True. I mean the Dodgers are probably the team that is closest to a super team, org that gets everything, the last few years and even they have Gavin Lux at 2b for 136 games (690 OPS this year, 704 OPS career) and Hernandez at 3b (and others) for 122 games (639 OPS this year, 711 career).

The Yankees have the best rs-ra in baseball and have the holes pointed out above - more so with potential free agents.

John Northey - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#452973) #

I get a sad laugh out of those who say 'just making the playoffs isn't enough' - when last year saw the Rangers win it all on a 90 win season, Arizona was in the WS with just 84 regular season wins, meanwhile 3 teams won 100+ and didn't get there going collectively 1-9 (O's swept, Dodgers swept, Atlanta won 1 game).

In 2022 we had 4 teams win 100+, and another at 99. One of them (Houston who overall went 11-2) won it all over Philly (87 wins). Others were Mets (1-2), Dodgers (1-3), Atlanta (1-3), and Yankees (3-6, won ALDS, swept in ALCS). Net for 99+ win teams was 17-16, barely over 500 thanks entirely to Houston.

So over the past 2 years 100+ win teams (the ones really going for it) went 18-25 in the playoffs, winning a WS plus 1 series. Teams with under 85 wins? 10-7 (Arizona), with 90 or fewer wins? 1 WS title, 3 in WS. Records: 2022: Seattle 2-3 (1 series win), Tampa 0-2, Phillies 11-6 (3 series wins), Padres 6-6 (2 series wins), net: 19-17 (6 series won out of 10 played); 2023: Jays 0-2, Twins 3-3 (1 series win), Houston 6-5 (1 series win), Texas 13-4 (4 series wins) = net 22-14 (6 series won out of 9 including the WS).

So over 2 years 99+ win teams were 18-25 winning 1 WS title, winning 4 out of 11 series. 90 and under teams were 41-31 winning a WS and 12 out of 19 series. I'd say the 90 and under teams were at an advantage based on that. This years playoffs will see no 100 win teams, with probably 4 or 5 90 or less win teams (could be as high as 7 potentially, but unlikely with Milwaukee at 90 and Baltimore & Arizona at 88 each with 3-4 games to play).

Clearly teams are adapting. Safe to say all ML teams have done the quick math I just did and see there isn't a lot of value to winning 100+ anymore. Not that the Dodgers didn't try to make a 100+ win team. The value is making a team that wins 85-95 wins as a target, thus in contention but not spending an arm and leg to win 100+.

The Jays this year will end up with between 74 and 77 games. That means they only need to add 10 or so wins to be a contender. Bo returning to his 2022 and earlier form covers about half of that (4.9 bWAR in 2023, -0.3 this year), replacing Kiermaier's anemic production with pretty much anything in LF should cover a few more wins. Same with Turner/Vogelbach/Biggio being gone and not eating PA's anymore instead having guys like Wagner in there. If Schneider keeps playing like he has this year (0.3 bWAR over 445 PA) he will be benched or demoted. The pen being moved from worst in the majors to middle of the pack would easily push the Jays up a few wins too. This is very low hanging fruit. Now, if the Jays get crazy and grab Soto or Bergman then things get very, very interesting. Of course, big drops could come if Varsho isn't healthy, if Vlad goes back to 2023 version, if Francis turns into his April pumpkin, etc.

My point is the Jays are not that far away from the playoffs. They aren't a 100+ loss team, let alone the White Sox. They are a good team having a terrible, no good, very bad year. Get into the playoffs and victory can happen, even if it hasn't for the Jays in the 20's yet (just like it was in the 85-91 period which was soooo frustrating, being so close yet so far)

SK in NJ - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#452974) #

"But I still dont see how this works going into 2026. Vlad and Bo will be gone for QO compensation. Bassett will be gone for nothing. The opportunity to reset the team will really have been lost."

Agreed, and I think I should add to my previous post that I think one way of doing a short-term pivot without a rebuild would be to maximize the value of non-core assets while also trying to improve the team. I mentioned Bassitt earlier, but you can name just about anyone except Vlad in that group and it applies.

Although as I said I don't think this FO will or prefers to operate that way.

John Northey - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#452975) #

Free agents post 2025 - Vlad, Bo, Romano, Bassitt, Green, Swanson, Cabrera, Tate. Mid-season deals to get value shouldn't be hard for the 5 relievers if they are having decent seasons and the team is out of it. Just look at the haul this summer. The question is would Bo & Vlad & Bassitt get more now or later? Bo likely gets very little right now vs mid-season if he has a good year. Bassitt I doubt is a massive difference one way or the other - teams mid-season are always desperate - look at how much we got for Kikuchi. Vlad is the tough one. Basically you negotiate with him now and see if a deal is possible. I'd be talking with his agent this week and see if a deal can be made before the offseason hits, it'd be a nice reward to fans to see him signed on the final day of the season. Bo I can't see a deal happening with, Romano maybe but very unlikely (outside of a 2 year deal to avoid the Jays releasing him if he'll need more than half the season to recover, which seems unlikely). Bassitt they'll let go to free agency if the team is contending mid-season otherwise they'll trade him then. The relievers are the same.

Standing pat seems the most likely situation until mid-season next year. The Jays will look at the assorted LF/DH/1B options I'm certain but unless they get lucky and get Soto I'm expecting a Turner level signing (someone who was left behind after musical chairs this offseason), but am hoping for a surprising deal. Maybe the White Sox in full cheap mode will trade Yo�n Moncada (3B with a 117 OPS+ there in just 40 PA, but 106 lifetime, due $25 mil in 2025 as a team option vs $5 mil buyout) for a couple of prospects. Maybe Oakland (again super-cheap) will dump Brent Rooker (DH with a 167 OPS+) - the A's literally have no one signed for 2025, just arbitration cases and pre-arb guys. Seth Brown (91 OPS+ utility guy) at $2.6 mil is the highest paid going into arb. Safe to say Rooker will get more than anyone else in arbitration (his first year). The A's, even in a minor league park, should easily afford to keep him but he'd be near the end of arb years come Vegas time so they might want to trade while the iron is hot.

It will be an interesting off-season. Hopefully we see some good things happen. I much prefer a team trying to win vs one that is just trying to get high draft picks.

electric carrot - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#452976) #

Overachievers

* Guerrero 118wrc+, 1.3war ---> 138wrc+, 3.6war ---> 166wrc+, 5.4war
* Falefa 79wrc+, 0.5war ---> 83wrc+, 0.9war ---> 96wrc+, 2.0war
* Horwitz 106wrc+, 0.1war ---> 108wrc+, 0.1war ---> 129wrc+, 1.9war

I agree with Uglyone, this season has had very little cheer about outside of the re-emergence of Vladdy, and the emergence of Horwitz. For next season to be better we will need shrewdness from the front office, along with more than a pinch of good luck. This season afforded very little for good fortune -- but that doesn't mean we'll get any more of it next year. I propose a move to the AL Central.

85bluejay - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#452977) #

I hope it rains cats and dogs next Monday in Atlanta. Mlb screws up again.

GabrielSyme - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#452978) #

this season has had very little cheer about outside of the re-emergence of Vladdy, and the emergence of Horwitz. For next season to be better we will need shrewdness from the front office, along with more than a pinch of good luck. This season afforded very little for good fortune -- but that doesn't mean we'll get any more of it next year.

I'd add that the performances of Will Wagner, Nathan Lukes and Leo Jimenez on the position player side, and Bowden Francis and Ryan Burr on the pitching side have all been good news, if less dramatic than Vladdy's re-emergence. Now, I think if nothing significant changes, the team should still be better next year because much went wrong in terms of performances this year, particularly in the bullpen. I think they should be a .500 team next year, but that is within hailing distance of the playoffs if the Jays get lucky. But to be genuine contenders, shrewdness and guile is needed. Or breaking the bank to sign Soto and a top starter.

Nigel - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#452979) #

In the "good things" that happened this year, chalk up getting out from under the IKF contract as a big plus. He's been a disaster in Pittsburg since the trade.

In the "caught by surprise" category this year, chalk up Otto Lopez being a league average regular this year in Florida. Lopez would be a fit with the current Jays in that he's having a year very much like Clement, Kirk or Varsho. A below average bat combined with very good to excellent defence and some base running and, voila, you have a league average player. Lopez being a very good to elite defender is a surprising development.

John Northey - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#452980) #

For good stuff I'd go...

Vlad becoming what we dreamed of again.
Horwitz emerging as a solid regular
Varsho being a league average hitter and uber-elite fielder (16 DRS in CF #1, 12 in LF #2 there, 28 overall puts him #1 overall).
Bowden Francis having a second half for the ages (1.80 ERA in 11 games, 10 starts, 65 IP 31 H 8 BB 58 SO for an opponents line of 140/188/294)
Kirk showing he has it still with a 94 OPS+ and fantastic defense (#4 in MLB by FanGraphs method), tied for 3rd in DRS for catchers, Moreno 3 DRS behind him tied for 6th. #5 in framing, Moreno #23. Yes, those 2 will be compared as long as Kirk plays here and next year we'll need to add Jansen to the comparison if he plays elsewhere.
Clement being damn solid at 3B/SS/2B over 400+ PA. Super Utility role here he comes.
Will Wagner looking damn fine in his limited 86 PA trial.
Nathan Lukes has looked good in the playing time he has had (82 PA, 117 wRC+) - clearly deserves the 4th OF role.

For bad we could go on and on and on. Suffice to say the pen sucked and Bo sucked. Springer had a bad year but not the total disaster it was looking like in June (1.2 fWAR now). Fix 2 of those 3 and the team would probably be 5-10 games better than it is and be in eyeshot of the playoffs. Fix all 3 and they'd be in the playoffs. Use Horwitz instead of Turner/Vogelbach from day 1 and you might have added 1 more win. Of course, if they contended we wouldn't have Wagner, Loperfido, Clase, etc.

I know many here see the bad, but I see lots of good here. Cutting bait on Pearson I see as a good thing too - the Jays need to learn when to dump guys.

John Northey - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#452981) #

FYI: even including his nightmare first half Francis is #25 in MLB history for lowest batting average allowed over 100+ IP at 191 lifetime. His WHIP is #4. That is lifetime - 2023 and 2024. This includes the Negro Leagues and the deadball era. We are talking mega elite here. Stats via FanGraphs. I'm sure if I cut down to his 2nd half only it'd get even more nuts (lowest BA in a full season over 60+ IP (he threw 65) is 121 by Brandon Workman (reliever) in 2019. Francis' 140 would put him at #16. His 0.60 WHIP would put him #3 all time (Jacob deGrom 2021 is #1 at 0.55, then Koji Uehara Boston 2013 at 0.57). The vast majority of those under 0.75 WHIP are relievers.

Yep, that 2nd half for Francis was something special. But even mixed with his bad first half and 2023 he still has elite numbers that normally are belonging only to flamethrowing 1 inning relievers. Lets hope it isn't a small sample size illusion but somewhat real.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#452982) #

Aaron Judge is having one of the all-time great offensive MLB seasons. At the moment he's hitting .325/.461/.708 with 58 home runs, 122 runs scored, 144 RBI, 10:0 SB:CS, 133 BB (220 wRC+). He's been worth 11.0 fWAR even with some subpar defensive stats. By way of comparison, Mike Trout topped out at 10.1 fWAR in his best seasons.

His wRC+ this year is the fourth-best single-season wRC+ in history. PED user Barry Bonds notched the three best single-season wRC+ numbers (from 2001-2004), so Judge is having an superlative year in 2024. Even better than Ohtani's 2024.

dalimon5 - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#452983) #

Wow, just wow. NYY gotta sign Soto to max put Judge's performance. I havent watched the Jays in over two months and I cancelled my season tickets. Someione message me when Atkins is fired.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 26 2024 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#452984) #

Read this interview the other day and it made me wonder if �low ambition� might be the problem with the Blue Jays:

COWEN: Are Canadians different in meetings than US Americans?

L�TKE: Yes, as well. Yes, that�s true. It�s more on the side of American, definitely on a minimum quality bar. I think Canadians are often more about long term. I�ve seen Canadians more often think about what�s the next step after this step, but also just low ambition. That�s probably not the most popular thing to say around here, but Canada�s problem, often culturally, is a go-for-bronze mentality, which apparently is not uncommon for smaller countries attached to significantly more cultural or just bigger countries.

Actually, I found it�s very easy to work around. I think a lot of our success has been due to just me and my co-founder basically allowing everyone to go for world class. Everyone�s like, �Oh, well, if we are allowed to do this, then let�s go.� I think that makes a big difference. Ratcheting up ambition for a project is something that one has to do in a company in Canada.

John Northey - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#452985) #

As I posted before low bar is the ML goal right now - the more teams in the playoffs, the less incentive to build a killer team. Pre 1969 you had to be the best in your league to go to the playoffs (then just the World Series) which often required 100+ wins. Then it went to 2 divisions and the Jays made the playoffs in 1985 with 99 wins, missed in 1987 with 96 wins, snuck in with 89 in 89, 91 in 91, then 96 and 95 for the 2 WS winning years. So while you could make the playoffs with sub 90 wins it was rare and required lots of luck. 1994 started the wild card era, first 1 then 2 now 3 WC per league. With 3 WC the Jays made it with 92 and 89 wins (ignoring the freak show 2020 was). 15/16 saw them make it with 93 and 89 wins.

So given that, and given what I posted earlier (99+ win teams in 22/23 went 18-25 in the playoffs, 90 wins or less went 41-31. So what was the point of building super-teams when they could fail as easily as a 90 win team that just makes it in? Mix in how all teams are far smarter about players now (no more Vernon Wells on a rebound season type deals, or the infamous McGriff deal where he was a throw in) and you can see how much harder building those super teams is going to be. Mix in the luxury tax which is becoming a harder cap by the year (seems no one wants to be knocked down 10 slots in the draft) and the lottery for top picks with limits on how often you can get a top 10 pick (thus killing the Houston plan) and you get a lot of near 500 teams. No one this year will win more than 98 games (Dodgers have a shot if they win it out). Yet we somehow got the White Sox losing 120 games in this environment (they can't get a top 10 pick due to the anti-tanking rules, nor can the A's).

Bottom line? The Jays at 74-85 (best case 77-85, worst 74-88) are contenders in 2025. Remember the Royals were 56-106 in 2023 but should be in the playoffs this year, Mets 75-87 but should make it too. A few moves, a bit of luck, and boom you are back in the playoffs. If Francis pitches for 33 games like he did his last 10 we have a Halladay level ace. If Bo returns to his old form we go up 5 wins right there. The pen just needs health and to pitch at their normal level (Romano especially) and those 23 blown saves back toward the 18 of '23 or the holds from 85 this year to the 106 in '23, the saves from 36 to 51 and you would change everything - easily 5 or more wins right there. It really wouldn't take much for this team to jump back into the playoff picture. Just the pen and Bo going back to normal could do it. Francis being like he has been in the 2nd half of 24 (insanely good WHIP) and the rotation is a bigger strength, even before factoring in Manoah returning mid-season. I see TONS of reasons this team could contend. If they get gutsy and make a big deal or free agent signing this winter the Yankees better watch out - they are a Judge injury away from flopping like the Jays did this year - and that isn't unlikely either - just 4 of the past 8 years he has played in 120+ games, plus in 2020 he played under half the games of the short season. His last 3 years are PED Bondsian (200+ OPS+ probably 2 MVP's in 3 years), and stuff like that ain't easy to hold especially for a guy entering his age 33 season (vast majority of players are retired by 33). Add in how the O's are cheap (starting pitching a clear issue going into 2024 but they didn't sign anyone iirc and still a clear issue but I doubt they'll sign anyone) and things could open up a LOT very quickly.

scottt - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#452986) #

Judge and Trout are the same age.

greenfrog - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#452987) #

The problem with excuses is that everyone can see that they are excuses � except for the person making them.

smyttysmullet94 - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#452988) #

Our Blue Jays are in last place in the ALE at 11 games under .500 and there are people in here talking about how we could have made the playoffs and won the World Series like the other "mediocre" teams. Corporate PR/marketing works, no matter what people say.

smyttysmullet94 - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#452989) #

Do we need another 162 games to establish this fact? We certainly weren't hit hard by injuries this year. We're 20th in the league with a -53 run differential. Just because we aren't the historically-bad White Sox, this does not make us "mediocre". Playoffs....really?

scottt - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#452990) #

Some people have a loser mentality and want to start from scratch at every setback.

The Jays have won 89, 92 and 91 games the last 3 years with basically the same core.
Boston have made the playoffs only once in the last 6 years.
The Rays are only 4 games ahead of the Jays.
Some people think the Jays can't finish ahead of those 2 teams next year.
Or is it that the AL Central is now a powerhouse and the only path to the playoffs is to win the division?

If they can get 2 decent bats and a couple of high leverage relievers, I will be very excited about next year.

greenfrog - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#452991) #

As excited as you were to jettison Chapman (5.3 fWAR this year) before the season?

John Northey - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#452992) #

So lets look at the standing and runs for/against.

May 1st to now: 59-69 554-581, 11th in AL
June 1st to now: 47-56 439-467 13th in AL
July 1st to now: 35-40 325-330 12th in AL
Aug 1st to now: 23-26 211-182 8th in AL (roster shift)
Sep 1st to now: 7-14 80-82 14th in AL (just below White Sox)

So the hope in August looks extinguished in September, but the Runs For-Against say they were a 500 team, just very, very inefficient. 2-8 in 1 run games in September. 2-1 in games where it was a 5+ run spread, 3-4 in 2-4 run games. Basically 1 run games are killing them - those are largely seen as luck based and should be near 500 for all clubs good and bad. Same with extra innings where they are 1-2 in September (all 1 run games).

As mentioned 1001 times - the pen has killed this team - making close games blowouts against, and losing leads. With Romano likely healthy in 2025 that will change (89% success rate for him - Rivera level). Plus I'm very hopeful the Jays either trade for or sign a reliever or two to add depth there, mixed with Green being a year further from surgery thus more likely to be able to handle a full season. Mix in how there is no way Bo can be this bad 2 years in a row, that we won't be watching Vogelbach & Kiermaier struggle to hit, and you see a much stronger team. At least a 500 team which with 3 wild cards puts you into contention now. Get into the playoffs and anything can and does happen.

Glevin - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#452993) #

I don't think Jays are very far off playoffs. Let's say jays end up with 76 wins. Let's also say they didn't make all the sell-offs at deadline which probably adds another 2-3 wins. Jays then need to find 10 more wins to be a playoff team and less than that to be in contention. They got essentially 0 WAR in LF from anyone other than Varsho so can add a 2-3 win player to that pretty easily. They can play Springer less in RF and probably get another win there. Bo was worth 0 War (or negative WAR). His career worst WAR before was 4. Even if you have him bouncing back to 3 WAAR, it's a huge improvement. Improve bullpen and add a couple of wins there and you're at high 80s in wins without doing much. Add some starting depth, maybe upgrade another position and Jays could give themselves some breathing room.

scottt - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#452994) #

Third base defense isn't that valuable with a team that loves shifting and no team loves shifting more than the Jays.

scottt - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#452995) #

The Orioles is the new gold standard for rebuild.
They started 2018 with Machado, Chris Davis, Schoop, Mancini, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo.
They won only 47 games.
Davis was 32 and was done. Jones was 32 and was almost done. Trumbo was 32 and almost done as well.
They had no pitching.
Gausman was their best starter with a 98 ERA+. 3 of the other guys had ERA over 5.
Brach and Castro were the only high leverage relievers and Mychael Givens was a better closer.

Judge is 32 and I wonder how long he has left.
Springer is 34, but Vlad is 25, Kirk is 25 and Varsho is 27.
Turner is 39 and KK is 34.
Maybe the lesson here is clear.

greenfrog - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#452996) #

OK. So you think IKF was about as valuable to the Blue Jays this year as Chapman would have been?

Joe - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#452997) #

Third base defense isn't that valuable with a team that loves shifting and no team loves shifting more than the Jays.

Except the Angels and Rays :)

Ducey - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#452998) #

Okay, lets assume that the Jays can add a mid range piece in LF, Bo cuts his hair and the bullpen is rebuilt and they will be in the playoff picture.

I think that is overly optimistic (especially the haircut), but lets assume that they will be in the running to be a wild card team in 2025.

Then what? I think they will need a team again in 2026. That team will have no Vlad, no Bo, no Romano, no Bassitt, no Green. Because they were trying for the wildcard they didnt trade them, so they walk for nothing. Then what?

This is the crux of the problem people. If they dont pivot this winter, 2026 and beyond is a wasteland given their craptastic farm system.

Keeping the band together for one last year knowing that there is going to be a big drop off the following seasons makes sense if its a championship club. Keeping a below average team together with the hope they might just make the playoffs just makes no sense. Its what lousy, rudderless teams that lack leadership and vision do.

greenfrog - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#452999) #

Judge may never reach these heights again, but let�s take a moment to honour the season he�s having in the here and now. It�s a tremendous feat that arguably puts him on the shortlist of the best offensive players in MLB history.

greenfrog - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#453000) #

Or the Blue Jays could extend Vladdy and add some free agents this off-season (while holding on to their quality prospects), and try to contend for a WC spot in 2025 while continuing to rebuild the farm system over time, including with a favourable draft position next year. That would be a reasonable strategy that would be less likely to alienate fans.

Hodgie - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#453001) #

Re: the "low ambition" problem

This is such a tiresome narrative. Shopify's workaround to this straw man problem was to pursue the Silicon Valley, scorched-earth approach to success. For the SV tech bro CEO, no moral is so intrinsic it can't be abandoned to further corporate profit and personal gain, usually with the tedious "Free Speech/Market" justification. Bronze medal mentality my @$$.

Ducey - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#453002) #

Yes, if they sign Vladdy then I am onboard with the "Vladdy and friends" model (1 big star) like CLE has done with Ramirez.

But if they dont have him locked up (or be confident that they can sign him) but the winter meetings they need to look at trading him, and Bo and others.

The stand pat model of watching him walk next year at this time is indefensible.

greenfrog - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#453005) #

For the SV tech bro CEO, no moral is so intrinsic it can't be abandoned to further corporate profit and personal gain

So you�re a big fan of sweeping generalizations � just not those you don�t like. Got it.

vw_fan17 - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#453010) #

John (or anyone else) - does the "more wins by sub-90 teams" suggest (or can we check) anything about the structure of those teams?

My gut says that teams with lower win totals but better playoff records had better top-3 (top-4) starters vs. the better overall teams, or better top-3/4/5 relievers, or maybe a weak bench, but solid regular players?

The hypothesis (which I'm not claiming is my idea) is that teams with a higher floor (better 1-5 starting rotation overall, better starting players + bench overall, AKA DEPTH) will do better in the regular season, which is a grind and no one plays at their peak all season and players get injured, etc. But, higher floor tends to lead to better average or worst-case results.

Playoffs are more of a sprint, so the team with the higher ceiling of 3 (maybe 4) starters, a few key relievers and 9 regulars will do better in the playoffs, in general. Starters coming in in relief, pitching in 3 or 4 games of a series, etc - something they would never do in the regular season.

So should teams generally build on the Stars + Scrubs model, replace a few Scrubs with Avg players at the trade deadline, and hope their Stars outshine the other team in the playoffs, instead of building a good-all-around team?

John Northey - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#453011) #

Very good question vw_fan17 - I didn't check into details as I was just looking for 'does it matter if you win 100+ or 90-' and the answer was the opposite of what we'd logically expect as it seems the 90- teams do better than the 100+ teams in the playoffs.

My gut says the lower win teams are fighting to the final day and don't get a break thus are fully into it while the 100+ win teams had some rest and instead of that helping them it hurt (reduced competitive edge or something). Obviously some rest helps, but too much could hurt.

bpoz - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#453021) #

Yes. Lets construct a winning playoff team. 1992 J Guzmam got hot and others. !993 J Guzsman and WAMCO.

Does a 1980s Stieb help? Does a 2000s Halladay help? Obviously yes.

So if we make the playoffs we need 1 great SP and other + luck and a good manager IMO.

John Northey - Friday, September 27 2024 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#453029) #

Well, Francis certainly is looking like he might be the ace like Guzman was in 92/93 after he emerged from nowhere in 91. Pre-WS wins many in Toronto wanted Cito gone (including the GM who really, really, really wanted Lou Pinella).

Luck is the random thing no one can predict - KC went from losing 106 to making the playoffs this year, basically they got lucky - their kids developed at the same time very quickly, plus they play in the easiest division (AL Central). Mix in 34 year old catcher Salvador Perez going from a 94 OPS+ to a 120 (0.5 bWAR to 2.6), Bobby Witt Jr. going from a solid SS to a 'holy crap' one (118 OPS+ at 23, 171 at 24, 4.4 WAR to 9.3). Just 4 hitters on their team at any point have a 100 OPS+ or better. Yikes. But that rotation - Lugo having his best season at 34 (going from a 1.9 WAR to a 5.2). 4 starters with a 110+ ERA+ and 29+ starts each. 9 different guys getting saves, just one of them with 8+ K/9 (Lucas Erceg who has emerged at 29 from nowhere - first pitched as a pro at age 26). Just a wow as to how the heck they made it this far. This ain't like the O's last year who went from 110 losses to 83 wins to 101 wins, now back down to 88 - via talent all over the place. The Royals had 101 things go right, very few go wrong. That is TONS of luck. O's have tons of hitting, lots of top notch relief, but nada in the rotation outside of Corbin Burnes who is a free agent.

bpoz - Saturday, September 28 2024 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#453037) #

That is a very good analysis of KC's success due to many things going right. The best that they are capable of is 87 wins if they win both of their next games. So nothing that impressive. Baltimore needs 1 more win to reach 90 wins.

Then there is Seattle with a +66 RS/RA differential. Pretty good but no playoffs. Our RS/RA took a 10 run negative due to last nights game.

Magpie's analysis and theory is that your record in 1 run games can help or hurt you. I hope that he provides a chart for this years results. But it is not necessary to provide proof of what most of us already know. Which is that a big + or - result determines a lot.

Any player can have a good season or a bad season. Bo had his 1st bad season. S Perez has many seasons of low OBP.

I hope the autopsy on this Jay's season will help me learn a lot if it is unemotional.

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