Oh yeah, should put a 'woohoo' to Varsho getting the Gold Glove in CF.  Well deserved.  Also, you can vote for him for the Platinum Glove.

FYI: Saw this news about the Jays going all-out for Soto repeated a few times today. This SI article names it as Hector Gomez pushing the rumor via Twitter.

Wow. Lots of work, John!

Maybe it's Soto, or bust. I'll bet bust.

I can't see the Jays being able to afford Soto and Vlad once Vlads contract would kick in. So it would be a one year proposition. Soto would know that too.

They should just focus on Vlad.

The Yankees' payroll is higher than the Jays' and they have more holes to plug.
Judge isn't going to play in CF forever, so Soto would have to move to DH by the time Stanton is done.
They need a 1B, a 3B to move Chisholm back to 2B and they hope to have Dominguez in the outfield eventually.

Tampa's payroll is under 90M. Toronto's payroll is over 200M.
There is definitively room for Soto. It just puts a limit on addressing other needs.
Bichette would walk, which seems to be the path he's on regardless.
They need to develop pitchers, so they don't spend on guys like Bassitt anymore.
Springer will be replaced internally as well.
The collection of near ready players they just acquired makes it possible.

I have no doubt the Soto/Jays news is a combination of "media" conjecture and an agent using his connections to get a player connected to as many teams as possible when the true market is likely LAD, NYM and NYY.

There are too many holes in the Jays team and org (depth) for Soto to immediately fix this team. There aren't enough good players that get to free agency now, the Jays don't have the depth to trade for good players, and the pitching rotation is thin with Gausman and Bassitt both on the decline. Plus the bullpen issues.

I fully expect that they'll trade Jimenez. I also think that's a mistake and that he had a higher ceiling than Wagner and Kasevich and is a safer bet than O. Martinez.

FWIW, I also predicted the Jays 5th place finish back in March. Too early to predict givne teams will change a lot but it's a huge uphill battle to improve given the Rays are getting big arms back after injury, Boston has way more good, young talent than the Jays, same for Baltimore and the Yankees are the Yankees.

Sign Vlad to a lifetime contract, don't sign any multi-year deals with free agents over 30. If lots of things break right the team can compete for a wild card in 2025, but the focus should be on 2026 and beyond.

I agree with Marc that they’ll trade Jimenez, and I also agree he has more upside than some of the players the FO likely values more than him. Though if he’s not a good defensive SS, and isn’t playing 3B, then that greatly lowers his potential value. For better or worse, Wagner and Kasevich have the offensive profiles that this FO loves, and Martinez has the power potential that Jimenez doesn’t. When you factor that Leo is out of options, I think he ends up being the trade bait. Could see Milwaukee as a fit there as they could use an infielder after losing Adames and have players the Jays could use.

Soto plus Vlad would be a billion dollar investment. It’s not happening. I think they’ll ultimately cave to what Vlad is asking for, but very slim chance they go that high for Soto considering he doesn’t come with the global revenue that Ohtani would have. The ideal scenario might be acquiring arbitration eligible players similar to how they got Varsho but they don’t have the expendable prospect capital to do that. Difficult to see a clear path here but let’s see what they do.

I don't quite understand the "Othani global revenue" stream.
Japan is an out of market public.
Also, Soto seemed to prefer the east coast--which makes sense--and how would the Dodgers have the money when they clearly need a shortstop. Where would Soto hit on the Dodgers? They already have Othani and Freeman in the top 3 spots.  The Mets make a lot more sense.

I am not writing off anything. This team has shown it will spend lots of money on upgrading their buildings and on top free agents. They offered on Gerrit Cole, Corey Seager, Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani not to mention paying top dollar for lesser free agents like Ryu and Springer.

They're done the facilities in Florida and the stadium and might have more flexibility for bigger signings. They also have one main owner now instead of two when it comes to their other assets (Raptors and Maple Leafs) so they have more control of their expenditures.

I am interested to see where Soto and Vlad go.

Last off season the Jays made 6 significant moves. KK, Turner, Vogelbach, IKF, Votto and Yariel Rodriguez. Just 1 pitcher so I guess they were happy with their pitching situation. I don't consider B Little a significant move.

They relied on Biggio to be someone useful, but he was not good enough. E Clement won a regular job by the end of June. D Schneider lost his regular job by early July.

The AS break was in early July and the Jays were out of contention for a playoff spot. A few Bauxites already started talking about 2025. Atkins & the media seemed to know the season was lost and plans were speculated about then acted upon by the trade deadline.

I expect about 5 significant moves to be made this off season. Better than Votto and Vogelbach. Payroll will be the defining factor IMO. I only expect 1 big move but more than 1 is possible. Trading Bo is not a significant acquisition.

Dasan Brown won a MiLB gold glove - one of 3 awarded to OF in all of the minor leagues.

I don't quite understand the "Othani global revenue" stream.

This piece has some interesting insights: https://www.sportspromedia.com/insights/analysis/shohei-ohtani-los-angeles-dodgers-mlb-tv-ratings-sponsorship-attendances-social-media/

For example: "With Ohtani on board, they have seen their roster of sponsors grow significantly, with at least ten Japanese companies signing deals with the franchise. Indeed, SponsorUnited founder Bob Lynch told Sports Business Journal (SBJ) that the platform projects the Dodgers to be the highest new-revenue generating team in US professional sports this year, adding at least US$30 million in income."

I heard recently on a sports podcast that the Dodgers have already received over 500,000,000 of increased revenue from the first year of the deal alone. This is from Bob McCown who frequently has his good friend Stan Kasten on the show.

One wonders how much a pure baseball player is worth. FanGraphs has Soto at roughly $580 million over 12-13 years. They put his 2024 season at $65.1 mil of value for 8.1 WAR, over $40 mil in 2019-2021-2023 as well. It is a massive risk for whoever signs him - if he, say, breaks his leg and loses a lot of his skill right away you are screwed. If he ages poorly, screwed. But if he plays as he can you have a HOF talent for ages 26-32 (all prime) plus his decline phase as he goes for assorted records (3000 hits, 500 HR, etc.) plus the HOF cap of your team on his head when he goes in. Checking the favorite toy we get a 14% shot at 3000, 54% at 500, 28% at 600, 12% at 700, 5% at 763 (beat Bonds), 2% at 800.

Sounds like a worthwhile risk to me. Same for Vlad. 26% at 500, 8% at 600, 24% at 3000, 10% 3500. Watching the two of them climb those career records while playing LF/3B/1B/DH would be fun over the next decade+. Bo would've been fun but his bad 2024 plus it seems he wants to go elsewhere would dictate the Jays make a choice - let him play out 2024 and see what makes sense after that. If he leaves, he leaves.

Hrm... just got an email from Sportsnet as I was typing that they are upping the cost for Sportsnet+ to $199 a year from $179 a year. Could they be preparing to up the revenue stream? $20 a year per viewer would be a lot of money, not enough to cover Soto but noteworthy.

I imagine all of Sportnet's costs have not remained static. And baseball is just one part of the pie. Hockey is likely the main concern.

Sportsnet did sell the rights to Monday night hockey to Prime.

"I fully expect that they'll trade Jimenez. I also think that's a mistake and that he had a higher ceiling than Wagner and Kasevich and is a safer bet than O. Martinez."

They might trade Jimenez but don't think it's fair to compare to Kasevich or Wagner. Both would just get back a lot less value. I would rather they trade some other pieces but I'm fine trading anyone if the return is right.

FYI 13 players got a QO thus will cost a draft pick.

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

None are a surprise to me. Basically it is just saying 'yeah he is worth $20-21 mil on a 1 year deal'. Some couldn't be offered it due to having one before (Snell) or due to being traded mid-season (Jack Flaherty, Kikuchi) or due to agreements on their old contract to not be offered it (Kim).

Note: Cole canceled his opt-out without the Yankees giving him the extra year. Not sure how that worked, but they are now negotiating an extra year to be tacked on (probably involving deferred money or something).

Excellent post John. I have no idea what they'll do, but I hope it is not Santander. We're all familiar with him via seeing a ton of the O's; if that eye test isn't enough, let's see. He's on the wrong side of 30. His only good season was his walk year (2020 does not count). He and the rest of the O's faded in Aug/Sept.

This seems reasonable:

Sign Vlad, kick the tires on Soto, get arms for the pen but don't pay a ton, check in on Bregman, and check in on a starter in late January, with a check-in on those in the current rotation who might be OK transitioning to the pen. Talk with Bo about a long-term deal, if only to make him feel wanted.

I'll bet Soto goes to the Mets or even goes back to Washington (feel-good story if he genuinely loves the town) before coming here for the same money. Soto is a generational talent who just turned 26. Barring a tragedy, he will be worth every dollar he gets. Unless his eye goes the OBP alone, it will look good with age (like Frank Thomas).

I've decided to give my sports attention to the Leafs this winter rather than the hot stove. They're always on streaming services that we have for other reasons. Also, there's no risk of frustration or disappointment because that's par for the course in Leafland.

Luis De Los Santos has been claimed by the Mets.

I like Chris' plan! Anybody know where greenfrog has gone?

Severino should probably take it. Pivetta, too. Same with Nick Martinez.

Are we saying the Angels were receiving 30M a year from Japan when Othani was on the roster making the minimum salary?That doesn't sound right.

Glad for De Los Santos - hopefully he gets a shot at a backup role in the majors with the Mets. Guy was an organizational soldier who got his reward - ML service time, first hit, etc. now lets see him get a real career out of it, like Otto Lopez might have after a solid 2024.

Genesis Cabrera and Luis Frias both off the 40 man and took free agency. Huh. Cabrera's #'s looked decent on the surface but dig in a bit and they weren't that good. Emmanuel Ramirez also designated for assignment. All while claiming reliever Michael Petersen from the Marlins, a RHP who really tore apart the PCL in relief (33 IP 8 BB 44 SO with 10 saves). Didn't do so well in the majors (71 ERA+ 19 2/3 IP 3 HR 11 BB 14 SO). Looks good to take a flier on.

Genesis Cabrera released. He was pencilled into the bullpen by a lot of people but I never understood it. He just wasn't very good and was set to make a $2.5 Million or so.

MLB Trade Rumors has their top 50 free agents and likely destinations (4 people evaluating). So who do they see going Toronto's way?

• 2 of 4 pick TO as destination: Kirby Yates #38 (1/$14), a RH reliever who closed for Texas in '24 with a 1.17 ERA over 61 2/3 IP (lifetime 130 ERA+), 4.1 BB/9 vs 12.4 K/9 33 saves/1 blown/2 holds. If Romano isn't coming back until mid-season or something this would make sense or if the Jays feel Romano might not be effective in 2025.
• One picked TO: Alex Bregman 3B #3 (7-$182); Anthony Santander LF/DH #9 (4/$80); Tanner Scott #14 LH closer (22/2/11 sv/bl/hld) 125 ERA+ lifetime 4.5 BB/9 10.5 K/9 (4/$56); Jeff Hoffman #18 RH relief (4/$44); Carlos Estevez RH closer (26-5-0) 113 ERA+ lifetime, 2.0 BB/9 8.2 K/9; Joc Pederson LH DH/OF (2/$24); Michael Conforto LH OF (2/$18); Andrew Kittredge #40 RH setup (1/7/37) 121 ERA+ lifetime (2/$14); Kyle Gibson #41 RHP inning eating starter (1/$13); Spencer Turnbull #50 RHP (swing) 154 ERA+ over 7 start/10 relief (1/$7)
• TO listed as a possibility: Soto #1 (13/$600); Snell #4 (5/$160); Sean Manaea #10 LH starter (3/$60); Teoscar Hernandez #11 LF/DH (3/$60); Jurickson Profar #16 LF/1B/DH (3/$45); Tyler O’Neill #19 LF/DH (3/$42); Gleyber Torres #20 2B (2/$36); Kyle Higashioka #36 C (2/$15);

Phew, they have the Jays in on a TON of guys don't they? So in summary...

• OF: (7) Soto, Santander, Pederson, Conforto, Teoscar, Profar, O'Neill
• IF: (2) Bregman, Torres
• C: (1) Higashioka
• SP: (3) Gibson, Manaea, Snell
• RP: (5) Yates, Scott, Hoffman, Estevez, Kittredge
• Swingman: (1) Turnbull

So, who best to chase? Soto obviously, for the pen if those #'s are right Yates, Hoffman, Turnbull - can't see the Jays giving 3+ years to a reliever. The infield and catcher don't jump out at me, I'd chase d'Arnaud, Jansen, or someone else. Higashioka is solid, but 2 years for a backup? Maybe. FYI: Willy Adames all 4 picked to go to the Giants. Soto is 2 Yankee/2 Mets. No way I see the Jays going after a starter unless they decide they need an ace or feel they need a #5 (no faith in Rodríguez or Francis).

If Romano is out half the year, Jays need to non-tender him or come to some extension that suits both sides. $8M is too much to pay for a reliever coming back from surgery especially one who wasn't effective before he got hurt.

They predict Bregman 7/182M covering years 31 to 37. 
He's a pull heavy right handed bat with low OBP. 
They predict Blue Jays/Astros/Astros/Mariners. 

They predict Santander 4/80M covering years 31-34.
He's a switch hitter who naturally hits low balls but seems to have solve his problem with high fastballs hitting 44 HR.
They predict Royals/Blue Jays/Giants/Yankees

They predict 3/60M for Kikuchi and 3 of them have him going to Baltimore.

They predict 4/56M for Tanner Scott.
He's a high leverage lefty reliever.
They predict Red Sox/Red Sox/Blue Jays/Yankees

They predict 3/45M for Profar and 3 of them have him going back to the Padres.

They predict 4/44M for Jeff Hoffman.
He's a right handed reliever.
The predict Blue Jays/Red Sox/Angels/A's
I guess the A's would invest to flip him, but 4 years seems too risky for them.

They predict O'Neil to sign with the Orioles (?), Giants or Pirates (x2).

They predict Carlos Estevez 3/27M.
He's a high leverage right handed reliever.
They predict Phillies/Rangers/A's/Blue Jays.

They predict Joc Pederson for 2/24M.
He's mostly a DH at this point. 
They predict Mets/Mets/Diamondbacks/Blue Jays.

They predict Jansen for 2/20M going to the Cubs (x2), Braves or Guardians.

They predict Conforto for 2/18M.
They have him got to Rangers/Pirates/Blue Jays or Royals.

They predict Kirby Yates for 1/14M.
They have him got to the Yankees/Blue Jays/Blue Jays or Phillies.

They predict Andrew Kittredge for 2/14M. 
A's/Twins/Blue Jays/Rangers

Kyle Gibson 1/13M
Angels/Rangers/Nats/Blue Jays

Spencer Turnbull 1/7M
Padres/Rockies/Blue Jays/Twins.

So the consensus is that the Jays need some relievers and at least one bat.

8M is a bargain for a closer and they gave Chad Green 10.5M a year.
On the other hand, there's a high risk so they would probably want some team options. Now, if they sign somebody else to be the closer, it might change things.

Green made $2.25 million in 2023, when he was still recovering and was unlikely to make a significant contribution, then had a series of convoluted options that led to him earning $10.5 million in 2024 & 2025.

Depending on Romano's medical prognosis, there's probably some opportunity for a creative contract. He's been a very good pitcher for the team, and is a popular hometown guy. Ideally a team would want to avoid looking like they just cut a guy loose after he got hurt, while balancing the risk for the team of signing a guy coming back from a significant injury.