I only posted Chapman's WAR value which slots him between Ohtani and Lindor to show how overrated WAR is as a measurement. I would have never signed Chapman to that contract.

My understanding is that there is quite a high correlation between WAR and team wins. So, while it’s an imperfect metric, WAR does a good rough starting point in assessing a player’s value (maybe less so for certain types of players like relievers).

The Jays have claimed another reliever from the Marlins. I'm not sure why they think they're going to strike gold with the 2nd worst team in MLB.

Da dum, da dum
I standin’ on the corner
When I heard my bull dog bark
He was barkin’ at the two men who were gamblin’ in the dark…

the two men who were gamblin’ in the dark…

And St. Louis was the scene of the crime!

At least they try something.
He was with Seattle. The Marlins picked him off on Aug 5.

De Geus sits 96mph with a sinker. He has a hard curve at 85mph and a 90mph cutter.
He also throws a splitter.

9 IP, 6 Ks, 2 BB, 11 hits.

I'm not sure why they think they're going to strike gold with the 2nd worst team in MLB.

Probably because it keeps working for them. That's where Yimi Garcia, Adam Cimber, and Anthony Bass were working before Toronto.

OK, Zach Pop not so much. And the Marlins traded Yimi to Garcia before the year ended.

Yimi to Garcia

Houston! Houston!

Here's a question: how good is this team right now?

Since the trade deadline, they are 18-19, but with a +30 run differential.

Most of the veterans on the field have been traded or injured (Bo), but the offence has been strong - a 114 wRC+, and the Jays have played their customary strong defence.

The pitching, however, is still weak: 20th in fWAR, although xFIP and SIERA think the pitching has been about average overall. Broken down, that's a good starting staff (Bassitt and Rodriguez have been poor but not disastrous, and Berrios, Gaus and of course Bowden have been excellent) and a 3rd-worst relief corps, with a -0.7 fWAR.

More impressionistically, it looks like we have an established star at 1B, above average starters at C and CF and then a bevy of young guys. The bullpen is a mess, but probably just with regression, isn't likely to be quite as huge of a mess going forward, and the rotation is a pretty solid starting five, but with little present depth and lacking a star at the front of the rotation.

"My understanding is that there is quite a high correlation between WAR and team wins. So, while it’s an imperfect metric, WAR does a good rough starting point in assessing a player’s value (maybe less so for certain types of players like relievers)."

I think the toughest part of WAR reliance is that the two biggest baseball stat sites calculate it differently, and we don't truly know how much all stats correlate directly to wins. It factors in defensive metrics that often are at odds with one another.

People use it too literally, and they often use it without positional context. That's why all the comparisons of Varsho's WAR vs Moreno/Gurriel's is absolutely silly. It's much stronger when comparing a player against other players at the same position.

Comparing different positions is what makes war most valuable actually.

War is a great stat. It's just that the defensive grade is more difficult and takes longer to measure.

"how good is this team right now?"

Probably pretty good. The recent numbers are much more in line with excpectations than the pre deadline numbers were.

And most of the guys traded didn't factor too much into those preseason expectations. Only Kikuchi and Jansen were major factors there, and Francis is doing a goos job replacing Kikuchi's expectation.

WAR is a useful general stat to quickly identify and communicate general player value but even the creators of WAR have said that 1-2 WAR difference is not significant. WAR gets horribly misused as a detailed and accurate stat. A 6 WAR player is going to be great and a negative WAR player is bad but the "he has 2.5 WAR so he's better than this player with 2 WAR" thing we do just isn't meaningful.

So Chapman 5 fWAR this year versus IKF 1.7 fWAR is meaningful. Got it.

But Glevin, what about (say) Bellinger 2.1 fWAR versus Kiermaier 0.3 fWAR this year? On your theory that differences of 1-2 WAR are not statistically meaningful, should we assume that the WAR difference between those two players doesn't tell us that Bellinger had the better year?

A couple of solid hits from Kirk last night. Everyone but Loperfido had a hit, and he made good contact a couple times as well.

I continue to be encouraged by Gausman’s second half. Two 98 mph pitches was great to see

Glevin is citing the creators of WAR about the negligible difference, it’s not just his opinion.

It’s also in blanket terms not small samples.

KK also had half the ABs as Bellinger this year and more time as a PH which is unusual.

If you could show 20 or 30 other comparisons it would show something.

"even the creators of WAR have said that 1-2 WAR difference is not significant"

Citation please.

"what about (say) Bellinger 2.1 fWAR versus Kiermaier 0.3 fWAR this year?"

I doubt that we can take it that Bellinger was 7x as valuable as Kiermaier.

A 2 war gap is pretty significant.

Not reay sure what the argument here is - Chapman's not doing anything he hasn't done before. He's not having nearly his best offensive year or defensive year or overall year.

He's about 1war better than he was 2yrs ago for us, and that difference is mostly him having a better defensive year.

mathesond, I don’t think anyone has ever claimed that WAR can be used to compare players in that way (i.e., by multiplying or dividing it).

The issue is whether it is valid to assert (say) that when WAR assigns outfielder A a value of 2.1 and outfielder B a value of 0.3 (or 0.6 if we double Kiermaier’s PA total to make the comparison more valid), we can be reasonably confident that outfielder A produced more value. Or, alternatively, based on Glevin’s claim (or the WAR creators’ own claim if in fact that is what they asserted), we can’t meaningfully use WAR to compare those two players because the WAR totals are within the 1-2 WAR margin of error.

This issue is actually important because sometimes people will say “we need more offense” and advocate signing a slugger with lots of power but weaknesses in other areas (defense and/or OBP). Whereas a player with a lesser bat but excellent defense and base running might produce more value — if you accept WAR as a valid way of measuring value.

Sometimes fans will say, to hell with WAR, give me the “big scary” bat who will deliver 30+ home runs and be intimidating in the middle of the order, etc.

Green frog your last post is exactly correct for me. Sometimes what I want is counter argued by posters citing WAR as a definite end all number for value, like Total cholesterol measurement.

The original argument (by me) was that Chapman is not nearly as valuable as Lindor or Ohtani this year, the two leading candidates for NL MVP but according to WAR he is right in between, better than Ohtani and worse than Lindor.

Further, if WAR had an offensive only version then I would be fine with it as a value measurement. For me the big issue is that it attempts to factor defensive value in the equation. It’s why so many posters saw KK being a much better player for the Jays to sign in 2022 than simply retaining Teo, myself included.

It feels like the Over Replacement part is wrong. It seems that a replacement player at 3rd and SS can easily produce 2-3WAR but a replacement player at 1B or DH will likely end up under zero.
It's not hard to find good defenders who can hit for 60~80 OPS+, especially now with the offense down.
Where are all the big bats who can hit but can't play defense?
This goes back to the discussion on Guerrero's big contract.
Good hitters at 1B should be making less because there's more of them.
Except it's not really the case.

Yesterday's game was a good showcase of the team situation.The bullpen couldn't hold a lead in the 8th.Also 4 runs in 11 innings is not enough offense.

Guerrero is at .940 OPS.
Horwitz, .831
Lukes, 819 in a tiny sample
Wagner, down to 788
Jimenez, 720
Clement, .709
Varsho, .700
Springer, 683
Kirk, the hero of the day, up to .659

They have a lot of 7-8-9 hitters, but they need 2 big bats in the 1-6 slots.

With a number of caveats, I think WAR is a helpful, but rough, relativistic tool. The caveats being that the sample size needs to be big enough and the different measurements of defensive value probably make averaging the different WAR metrics an improvement. With near full season data I think it works fine to say that Bellinger has provided more contributions to his team to winning than KK. It’s most useful as a rough measure to try to put a player like Varsho against, for example, Teoscar Hernandez. But minor differences in WAR aren’t useful. And WAR is only one tool and isn’t the be all and end all when looking at things like roster construction etc.

"Further, if WAR had an offensive only version then I would be fine with it as a value measurement.For me the big issue is that it attempts to factor defensive value in the equation."

* 1. There is an offensive only component of war.
* 2. Factoring in defense is exactly what makes war useful. Looking at offense only is a pretty useless way to look at a player.

WAR has a number of fundamental issues.

1)For hitters, offense is much more quantifiable than defense or baserunning and all are lumped together.
2) the above replacement doesn't really work on lots of cases. Obviously a catcher has more defensive value than a 1Bman but getting a good defensive catcher who can't hit is actually extremely easy. Pete Alonso and Freddie Fermin have the same WAR but nobody in baseball would value them remotely similar and contracts they would get would be tens of millions different.
3) pitcher WAR isn't great and reliever WAR is pretty useless useless.

As many have said, it's a very useful rough stat for quick reference.

For me, a relatively minor difference might be a 3.5 WAR player versus a 4 WAR player. But a 2 WAR difference (0 WAR versus 2 WAR, or 4 WAR versus 6 WAR) feels like a significant one in terms of player quality and contribution to team wins.

In his rookie season, Pete Incaviglia hit .250 with 30 home runs and 82 RBI and posted 0.6 fWAR. I would much rather have a 2.6 WAR outfielder who hits 10 home runs, runs well and plays decent defense — even taking roster construction issues into account.

This is why I think Alonso is likely to be overrated this off-season.

"It seems that a replacement player at 3rd and SS can easily produce 2-3WAR but a replacement player at 1B or DH will likely end up under zero."

That's not really true.

It just so happens that 1B/DH aren't that much better hitting positions at this point in time for some reason. SS has almost as good hitting as they do.

League wRC+ by position:

* SS 104wrc+, 99.5war (150.3off, 205.2def, 54.6bsr)
* C 91wrc+, 68.9war (-241.1off, 334.7def, -63.8bsr)
* CF 95wrc+, 65.1war (-48.5off, 89.1def, 64.5bsr)
* 3B 98wrc+, 64.3war (-41.8off, 65.8def, -4.8bsr)
* RF 107wrc+, 56.2war (168.2off, -229.5def, 17.3bsr)
* 2B 92wrc+, 54.8war (-141.7off, 68.6def, 24.6bsr)
* LF 101wrc+, 43.3war (21.8off, -211.5def, 6.9bsr)
* 1B 106wrc+, 36.3war (69.4off, -337.7def, -62.6bsr)
* DH 109wrc+, 27.4war (164.5off, -519.0def, -35.9bsr)

Terminology is getting weird here. Replacement is meant to be 0 WAR so a replacement SS isn’t putting up 2 WAR. What is true is that a below average bat can still be a 2 (ish) WAR player at SS (C etc) if they are significantly above average defensively. And that is as it should be and is, frankly, what WAR is actually trying to (roughly) measure.

Now, what does need to be adjusted (and I have no idea if the various WAR systems do this) is that with the reduction in the numberof balls in play and the reduction in the number of ground balls in recent years, the overall benefit of defense at SS is less today than 20 years ago.

I wonder if some people realize a player can have the exact same stat lines for offense and defense, identical numbers over, say two seasons. Said player puts up numbers in 2022 and then in 2023 repeats the exact same defensive and offensive numbers but the WAR stat would not be the same once the other factors like baserunning, position adjustment and replacement level in that year are accounted for.

Why don't they try to apply a value to intangibles so that we can say that players like Molina, Bassitt and Bregman get higher WAR numbers because someone decides to include a new projected measurement for intangibles.


Maybe I'm wrong. Let's lock up Varsho and his 5+ WAR value as the top priority. He is, after all, more valuable than VGJ in this context and should be paid more for it.

Whereas a player with a lesser bat but excellent defense and base running might produce more value — if you accept WAR as a valid way of measuring value.

At this very moment, the bb-ref formula says that Kevin Kiermaier's 550 or so innings of elite centre field defense - which is all he provided in 2024 - has been more valuable than Kevin Gausman's 170 innings of league average pitching. Which is about when I think the formulae need to go back into the shop for some adjustments.

FWIW - I think the bref WAR results in too much value in defense and not enough in volume of pitched innings. Frankly, I have questions about the WAR numbers for pitchers in general. While I agree that the KK and Gausman results show the problems, it, funnily enough, also highlights its value. Gausman’s raw numbers are masking how much the Jays’ defense has aided some pretty poor pitching by the pitching staff. I am not suggesting that there aren’t problems. Gausman has actually been a decidedly below average pitcher this year.

"Said player puts up numbers in 2022 and then in 2023 repeats the exact same defensive and offensive numbers but the WAR stat would not be the same once the other factors like baserunning, position adjustment and replacement level in that year are accounted for."

I mean...yes, exactly.

That's how it should be - the positions are not all equal defensively and have to be adjusted for.

Baserunning is also very important.

And year to year changes in league offense and defense is also crucial to measuring a player's value.

These are things you never want to ignore.

Well, I've moaned and complained about WAR often enough - it's full of assumptions, guesswork, and a theory of how the game works - but what can you do? Counting numbers are relatively pure, and I prefer them for that reason, but they're all subject to various outside influences, some of which are massive.

The game is much too complicated to be understood!

I know many fans are partial to b-ref stats and still see fangraphs as the brash young upstart, but i think in terms of pitching war specifically they do a much better job.

And while the war they commonly display for pitchers is fip-war only (i.e. ignores results on balls in play), they also have a ra9-war which counts every ball in play against the pitcher. They also factor in leverage which is imo very important especially for relievers.

I agre with you Nigel that they still don't adjust enough for innings pitched - especially for innings pitched per outing.

Iirc bref still uses a metric built on ERA (which depends on defense behind them and arbitrary scorer decisions) and then tries to work back from there and factor in defense. It has always seemed too flawed to me.

I don't really understand their pitching war metric and the fact it has Gausman at 0.5 war does seem bizarre. Whereas Kiermaier being worth half a win just for part time elite cf defense actually does make sense to me.

Gausman on fangraphs is at 2.6fwar and 1.9ra9war. On track for a 2.5 average war season which feels about right for the pedestrian but still decent innings eating season he's had.

I am as guilty as anyone of overuse with WAR. Generally I use BR due to ease of use with draft and the like. FanGraphs I can download all of ML history and play with it. I like it as an easy way to factor in defense and mix pitching-hitting-fielding together (critical for draft and trade analysis).

In season one-to-one player comparisons aren't what it is built for. Fun but has many issues. I think within 2 WAR you mix in some judgements to determine who is better. But as a rule a group of 20 guys producing 3 WAR each will be better than 20 who produced 2 WAR each.

John makes an underappreciated point. A one season WAR number is what my stats prof called a naked number -- one needs enough samples (probably 20-30) to get a sense enough of the variability of WAR.

Echoing other posters I find the idea of replacement level the most problematic aspect of the WAR stat. The assumptions are too many to lost but the replacement generally needs to be in the org. It's easier to replace fielding WAR that oWAR (imho) and relief pitchers are so variable one as may as well use the eye test.

I wish there were more measures of standardized scores 1B in particular seems to have fallen prey to this issue -- Vladdy, even before his uptick was just fine relatively to the sample for AL 1B.

Pitching metrics could use work stats like STUFF+ are interesting. I still believe in the main point of why Zoro's McKracken developed FIP -- once it leaves the hand on the guy on the bump, he has very little control over the outcome.

I still believe in the main point of why Zoro's McKracken developed FIP

I'm always inclined to regard FIP as an indicator of what could have happened, or what should have happened. But not necessarily what actually happened. Kind of a pitching equivalent of BABiP.

The Jays won today.

"Well, I've moaned and complained about WAR often enough - it's full of assumptions, guesswork, and a theory of how the game works - but what can you do? Counting numbers are relatively pure, and I prefer them for that reason, but they're all subject to various outside influences, some of which are massive."

Feels like the problem with all unifying theory arguments, which WAR is too.

This has been a big week for Schneider, who has had a few decent games after having one of the worst halves of baseball I've ever seen. I had no idea HOW BAD until this past week ( i did a search from june or july 1, until now). Honestly feels the opposite to his historic call-up. I do think he'll be streaky (hopefully not THIS much going forward), but still has potential to be a useful ML player. His career totals feel right, with potential for massive years if he gets sustained luck.

I forgot how much Schneider's career numbers dropped during the slump. Was thinking more 240 average with some power and walks.

Magpie, I agree -- that said for the evaluation of a pitcher in isolation I think it's the best vantage point statistically. Of course the pitcher is never out there alone just as the batter is never hitting against an average defense.

I kind of prefer the what if stats in as much as why bother going beyond team W-L record if one cares about what happens? As W are the only thing that matters from that perspective.

Well, luck is real! It's really important! Dumb, blind, stupid luck. For both teams and players. A hitter's BABiP can suddenly drop by 50 points for no good reason; a team can go 10-20 in one-run games, again for no good reason.

The what-if stats are really about the future, as far as I'm concerned. They told us, for example, that the Baseball Angels took a real shine to Jose Berrios this year. And they're really unhappy with George Springer. Who knows why?

But seeing as how they'll probably feel quite differently about both guys in 2025 - as they are fickle and flighty and not to be counted on - one wants to be aware of it.

From my POV there are three main problems with WAR (really as much with how WAR is used as WAR itself):

First, defensive stats are questionable, and varied, and while defense has value, the measures of defense are imprecise and for a lot of players the difference in value may be masked by difference in defensive value precision between different methods of tracking defense.

Second, the granularity of WAR is not great as most players will be between 1 and 3 WAR. Sure you can transform the number or report to 1 or 2 or 3 decimal places (but the precision problem rears its ugly head again), but if you contrast with things like OPS/BA/OBP/SLG where 2-3 decimal places easily makes sense and distinguishes players, or like runs where each individual run is easier to understand and again makes it easy to have players that are a few runs better than each other, wins are a bit harder of a chunk.

Third, WAR covers both quality and quantity (which is good overall), but if you aren't careful you can be confused as a player that puts up a WAR of 2 in half a season (with the other half injured say) is quite different than a player that puts up 2 WAR in a full season of play. While replacement level is supposed to be the freely available talent, and where every year there are teams that put up below replacement level quality from some position/players, in general you expect that you can fill gaps with above replacement players so putting up the same WAR in less time is much more valuable, but not clear if you just look at raw WAR.

A number of these problems are mitigated whey you do things like what uglyone does with war to one decimal place and turned into a rate over a common fixed PA/GS/IP so you can compare people more easily. Doesn't totally fix the defensive troubles.

I don’t see those issues as insurmountable. WAR will improve as a stat as defensive rating systems improve. Playing time issues can be addressed by looking at uglyone’s WAR/650 PA or simply by looking at WAR and PA together to get a sense of how valuable the player has been. I don’t find granularity to be an issue, as I’m typically not focused on small differences, e.g., comparing a 1.6 WAR player to a 1.8 WAR one.

As long as you’re using WAR as a starting point in thinking about and discussing player value, as opposed to a final destination, I don’t see it as problematic. It’s a big advance compared to the days when people said player A was better than player B because his batting average was 30 points higher.

A lot of the chatter has been about 2025. There is much I don't agree with.

I would like a young inexperienced player to still compete for his spot unless he has no options. Then compete for increased playing time. Last year D Schneider started V hot and went cold to end the year. Will Wagner is doing the same thing this year by being cold so far in Sept. Kacevich and Roden are red hot in AAA but will not be called up to save a roster spot for a while longer. If the FO thinks they are ready now then consider giving them a spot on the Opening day roster as regulars. Maybe the bench next year is only the backup C and Varsho's insurance in CF. Someone with elite D. Everyone else shares playing time until until someone claims a spot. Horowitz has already claimed a spot IMO.

On the positive side J Schneider is managing well. Gausman is not being pulled early but is throwing 100+ pitches/game. This could be dangerous. Green is the closer so out of respect he is getting to play that role even though he has blown 3 saves recently. D Schneiders bad season was recognized and his playing time has decreased.

With all the left bats recently added, Schneider could end up on the bench.
If Bichette is still around, Jimenez will be on the bench looking for playing time as well.

There's no rush for Kasevich and Roden. The lineup will change between now and opening day.

Horwitz is no longer playing at 2B. The Jays will probably still look to improve the DH spot.
Can they add enough offense with one bat or do they need 2? Horwitz's fate might hang on that.

Hitters don't really compete for spots in March. Espinal lost his spot the previous year.

Back to the on field stuff for a moment… yowza what a nice play by Leo Jimenez.

Fun weekend. Sucks for those dreaming of the Jays getting the 1st overall pick, but great for all of us who watch the games. Schneider reminding us of what he can do, Green finally getting another save, Rodriguez making us dream of a rock solid 5 man rotation in 25.

Gregor Chisholm points out that, setting aside the 2016 ballclub (which was largely inherited from Anthopoulos), the Blue Jays have basically played .500 ball under Atkins and Shapiro. Would it have been better to lose a few more ballgames at this point, in the hopes of securing a better 2025 draft pick, as opposed to trying to finish around .500 this year? It’s debatable.

On a more positive note, there have been some encouraging signs in the last few months, such as Vladdy hitting up a storm and some of the young players performing well.

Gregor Chisholm, Scott Macarthur and Steve Simmons form the triangle of media hate against Shapiro and Atkins. Simmons is well known for grandstanding and sharing wild views in the Toronto Sun. Scott Macarthur routinely calls for the dismissal of Shapiro and Atkins on his podcast with Richard Griffin, citing ethical and personal reasons of why he can't support them. He worked at TSN and then Sportsnet where I would surmise he was fired by Shapiro or someone on his team. Chisholm I find the hardest to listen to. While Simmons has some interesting points and Macarthur very logical takes once you can learn to ignore his hate for the FO - Chisholm offers little to nothing other than complaints about the front office along with babble. I find him, Shi Davidi and Rob Longley often re-gurgitate or recap things that have happened more than anything.

I listen to nearly every podcast or radio hit these guys do. They are bottom of the barrel for me - Scott Macarthur only because of his obvious bias. I also listen to Bob Mccown who is like Simmons (but he has the best guests), Gate 14, Arden Zwelling (attempting to become an analytics expert), Ben Nicholson Smith (nice balance of logical takes with no babble), Jake Goldsbie (probably my favourite). I might be missing some, but Gregor is last on the list by a country mile. Just wanted to point out I found him to be politely anti-Shapiro since day 1 based solely on the fact that they came from Cleveland and ousted AA in his mind.

I’m not commenting on Chisholm’s perspicacity as a journalist, but rather stating a fact about the team’s W-L record under the current front office over the last almost-decade. Facts can make people uncomfortable.

I still check the playoff races. Detroit & Seattle 2.5 games behind Minnesota and Boston 4.5 games back. Detroit sold at the deadline while still being in the race IMO. Their fans are probably upset. They traded Jack Flaherty who is pitching like a #1 this year.

It will be very interesting to evaluate the Flaherty & Kikuchi returns over the next 3+ years. Detroit got SS Trey Sweeney and C Thayron Liranzo.

"Gregor Chisholm points out that, setting aside the 2016 ballclub (which was largely inherited from Anthopoulos), the Blue Jays have basically played .500 ball under Atkins and Shapio"

So they don't get credit for inheriting the team in 2016 but also get blame for having to rebuild the same inherited team? You can't have it both ways.

"Would it have been better to lose a few more ballgames at this point, in the hopes of securing a better 2025 draft pick, as opposed to trying to finish around .500 this year?"

Yes, it would be much better to have the 3rd pick than the 8th pick and some pointless wins in September but the Jays traded all their pending free agents so it's not like they are trying to win. There are just a lot of not good teams in baseball and Jays are still probably about a .500 team as is. Unless the Jays traded Vladdy and Berrios, etc...and went full rebuild, they weren't going to suddenly lose all the time.

A lot of people thought the front office should have started the rebuild after 2016 (for example, trading Donaldson for Jack Flaherty plus a prospect, instead of waiting and then trading him for Julian Merryweather).

I would guess that, unlike the Shapiro/Atkins regime, most front offices don't inherit an ALCS-calibre team to start their tenure. I don't see why they should get credit for starting their tenure with a playoff-ready roster (minus Liam Hendriks, who was traded by Shapiro before the 2016 season started).

To me, the unfairness would be for the current front office to have it both ways: to get credit for the 2016 team's record but not to receive any blame for failing to start the rebuild after 2016 instead of during/after 2017.

"A lot of people thought the front office should have started the rebuild after 2016 (for example, trading Donaldson for Jack Flaherty plus a prospect, instead of waiting and then trading him for Julian Merryweather)."

Nobody thought that. They won 89 games. The mistake trying to thread the needle after the 2017 season. Yes, they should have traded Donaldson then but they also got unlucky with him getting a major injury for most of the year. Also, Jack Flaherty was great in 2019 and has had a 3.3 WAR over the last 4 years when the Jays would have been competitive so it's not like he would have been a difference maker regardless.

"To me, the unfairness would be for the current front office to have it both ways: to get credit for the 2016 team's record but not to receive any blame for failing to start the rebuild after 2016 instead of during/after 2017."

This makes 0 sense because you are not giving them any credit for 2016 but also blaming them for a declining roster. Why is it Atkins fault that Tulo was one of the worst contracts in baseball? Why is it his fault that Bautista and Encarnacion were free agents and declined quickly. Why is it his fault that the Jays had no prospects for years in the system. You are obsessed with these counter-factuals that would make 0 difference. If the Jays start to rebuild in winter 2017 instead of later that year, the only significant move they make is trading Donaldson. That's it. It doesn't change the direction of the franchise, it doesn't really change anything. Fine, don't give them credit for 2016 but you can't then also blame them for those exact same players declining. You can't have it both ways.

No. I’m saying the front office can’t have it both ways. If they want credit for 2016 as part of their overall track record, then they also need to own their decision to delay a rebuild — which many people from Ken Rosenthal on down said at the time was a mistake.

In my view, the front office got lucky. They inherited a winning roster and also their current best player by far (Guerrero Jr) from their predecessor. After reaping the benefit of that roster with a postseason appearance and postseason wins, they’ve managed, with ample financial resources (more than they ever had in Cleveland) a .500 record and zero postseason wins.

You can make lots of excuses for the front office, but its track record in terms of on-field performance is what it is. That is what people will look at decades from now when they assess this management group: results, not excuses.

"So they don't get credit for inheriting the team in 2016 but also get blame for having to rebuild the same inherited team?"

yes absolutely both are true.

they inherited an excellent team with many good assets, and not only failed to improve that team but also failed to use any of those assets to build their own team.

and even if you just ignore the team inherited and say they inherited nothing worthwhile, you still have to deal with the fact that their decade in charge has led to .500 baseball.

or what greenfrog said, better than i did.

"No. I’m saying the front office can’t have it both ways. If they want credit for 2016 as part of their overall track record, then they also need to own their decision to delay a rebuild — which many people from Ken Rosenthal on down said at the time was a mistake."

But what you are missing is that there is nothing they could have done to fundamentally change the course of the team. Yes, they should have started the rebuild 6 months earlier. Would that have changed anything going forward? No. Absolutely not. The team they inherited was always going to collapse in 2017 and the system was empty so there was no way to compete until much later. There was no way to turn this into a good team. The fact that they were able to compete in 2020-2021 was because of great moves (Trading for Ray and signing Semien) What you are trying to do is give them blame for everything bad and no credit for anything good. Hence, mentioning (again) the unimportant Liam Hendriks move in 2016 but not trading for Liriano

Was getting Vlad lucky? Not really. They took over the team in 2016, Vlad wasn't above a league average player until 2021. You are just picking and choosing. The Jays are lucky because the got Vlad but you ignore conveniently how little else they got from previous management. (Danny Jansen, Romano, it was very weak). So for you, Jays are lucky because they got a star player but you can completely ignore that they actually had no talent in the system for years. They got 0 WAR from the system for like 3 straights seasons and got maybe 30 WAR total from the players they inherited. The question is really, is getting 30 WAR over 9 seasons from the previous management count as lucky? No. It doesn't. I don't think there was a single season where the Jays got more value out of players left in system by AA than they did players drafted/signed by Shapiro.

"they inherited an excellent team with many good assets, and not only failed to improve that team but also failed to use any of those assets to build their own team."

I would love one of you guys to explain how they could have turned the 2016 team into a long-term winner without using magic. The Jays inherited almost no tradable assets. The best position player under 30 was either Kevin Pillar or Devon Travis. They had 3 very valuable tradable assets: Donaldson, a trade they made too late, Stroman a completely fine trade, and Osuna where they couldn't have done anything else. "Many good assets" is a ridiculous claim. Their best hitter under 30 was either Pillar or Travis (i.e. not even a starting major league player). That they managed to turn Drew Hutchsion and Travis Bergen into Teoscar and Robbie Ray is incredible but somehow doesn't matter. No credit for anything good ever.

I’ve given the front office lots of credit for lots of their discrete moves: Teoscar, Semien, Gausman, Chapman, LGJ, Yariel, among others.

But those good discrete moves aren’t what people will ultimately remember about this front office. They’ll remember how successful the Blue Jays were on the field and especially in the postseason.

imo "long term" winner is deliberately vague.

they had a team that was elite for 2yrs. With some strong moves they could likely have been elite for a couple more. and actually won a world series in there. is that long term? i dunno. not sure i really care though.

better than the long-term mediocrities the jays have been for the bulk of the last 30yrs.

still boggled that after 2 decades of suckage they replaced the GM as soon as they actually made the playoffs.

"imo "long term" winner is deliberately vague.

they had a team that was elite for 2yrs. With some strong moves they could likely have been elite for a couple more. and actually won a world series in there. is that long term? i dunno. not sure i really care though."

The 2016 team was not elite. It won but it was super lucky. The rotation that was left from 2015 was Estrada, Stroman (who had 24 career starts), Sanchez (who had 11 career starts), and a 41 YO RA Dickey who needed surgery. Their next 2 starters up were Drew Hutchsion and Scott Diamond. They signed Happ (Another very good signing) and somehow those 5 guys made 152 starts. (Liriano, who they traded for later in the year got 8). That is insanely lucky. An injury to even one pitcher for even a a few weeks would have meant the team would have missed the playoffs. There were 68 pitchers with 29 or more starts and the Jays had 5 of them.

OK, Forget long-term if you find it vague that even How would they have been even elite for a couple more years? What realistic moves could they have made to be elite in 2017 and 2018? The actual team won 76 and 73 games. Where are you getting an extra 20-25 wins a year?

Facts....

Blue Jays from 2016 - 2024
683W - 592L (winning record)

Blue Jays from 2017 - 2024 (winning record)
594W - 519L

This is with the condensed covid season. Sure, "basically .500" if you wish.


More facts....

Baltimore Orioles from 2016 - 2024
610W - 734L
Baltimore Orioles from 2017 - 2024
505W - 661L


Extra facts...

Blue Jays from 2010 - 2015
489 - 483

Blue Jays from 2010 -2015 before trades to "go all in" which current FO has not yet done
449 - 465

"But those good discrete moves aren’t what people will ultimately remember about this front office. They’ll remember how successful the Blue Jays were on the field and especially in the postseason."

"you can make lots of excuses for the front office, but its track record in terms of on-field performance is what it is. That is what people will look at decades from now when they assess this management group: results, not excuses."

"They inherited a winning roster and also their current best player by far (Guerrero Jr) from their predecessor. " Kind of like Bautista and AA?

"Facts can make people uncomfortable." Very true... I'll rest my case.

Your post didn't seem uncomfortable, I appreciated the takes on the Toronto media landscape.

Averaging close to 87 wins a year is nowhere near .500. That number likely gets you into the playoffs this season.

2016 was elite.....even with almost zero help from the front office, even though Happ fell into their laps thanks to the previous and inherited admin.

and they were actually a bit unlucky.

2016:

* #5 position player WAR
* #6 wRC+
* #9 runs for

* #4 ERA-
* #6 runs against
* #7 FIP-
* #9 xFIP-

* #3 SRS
* #5 run differential
* #7 wins


as for the starting staff, they had a very good Estrada, two very good young arms in Stroman and Sanchez, a workhorse in Dickey who "unluckily" finally fell off that year. Four slots filled with quality arms, and a 5th slot to be filled by a free agent - with multiple high end free agents (Price, Happ) eager to play in Toronto because of what the previous FO had built.

Also, AA was operating under significant financial constraints for much of his tenure. Atkins has never hat to pass the hat around to his veteran players for them to chip in a million or two to sign a free agent, as AA was forced to do in his attempt to sign Ervin Santana on a one-year contract.

2015 and 2016 were made possible, in part, because Anthopoulos took a chance and signed Bautista to a 5/$64m (with $14m club option for 2016) extension. Not everybody agreed with that move at the time, but it paid off. AA inherited Bautista, but he made the most of that found money.

"2016 was elite.....even with almost zero help from the front office, even though Happ fell into their laps thanks to the previous and inherited admin."

So, the front office signs Happ and you believe credit goes to Anthopolous? This is what I am talking about. The front office can't even get credit for moves they actually make. They signed Happ. He was a good signing. They get credit for that. If you don't think getting 29 starts from all 5 of your starters is extremely lucky, I don't know what to say. Here's # of starters making at least 29 starts for the Jays since 2016.
2016-5
2017-2
2018-0
2019-1
2020-N/A
2021-3
2022-3
2023-4
2024-3

The average team gets around 2-2.5 guys making that many starts a year. Again, one injury to one starter in 2016 would mean Drew Hutchison/Scott Diamond would have started a bunch and Jays would have missed the playoffs.

"OK, Forget long-term if you find it vague that even How would they have been even elite for a couple more years? What realistic moves could they have made to be elite in 2017 and 2018?

Still waiting for this.

Comparing the current and previous regimes isn't easy and really shouldn't be done because the payroll parameters have changed. Shapiro should get significant credit for that but one should be more critical of what the current regime has done with that extra payroll room.

Shapiro should get significant credit for that but one should be more critical of what the current regime has done with that extra payroll room.

Critics of the front office like to criticize around the edges use of payroll room for middling rentals like Turner & Kiermaier.

But more fundamentally, the FO chose to use the extra payroll resources to buy an aging and close to league average starting rotation in Gausman & Bassitt along with the lengthy Berrios extension.

It certainly helped make the team competitive during the 2021-2023 window when Vlad & Bo were cheap & emerging.

It also speaks to the organization's inability to produce cost-controlled SPs internally. Since Stroman left, there's been one amazing season out of Alek Manoah, one found money month in Bowden Francis after much patience. And a painful lost season of babying and coaxing 4-5 innings out of cheap Cuban import Yariel Rodriguez.

Sorry Nigel, why do we need to be more critical of the current front office? Pointing out the truth of records is not a defense of the current front office or an endorsement, it is simple truth sharing.

A couple of posters have started the debate and challenged the board with "facts" that in fact were not facts at all but cheaply made points to try to show that this current FO is a .500 record outfit over their current tenure.

I have provided the actual facts and the response, predictably, has veered away from any facts to cherry picking stats and excuses... "yeah but..." arguments of why AA's lesser record is not inferior to current FO's.

Call the current FO bad. Fine by me.

Say they signed bad contract and made bad trades and squandered the window. Fine by me.

Call them overrated. Fine by me.

Pretending that they can't put together a team with a .500 record and need to rely on their successor's 2016 roster to even get this regime's record over .500.... I won't accept these false realities going unchecked.

It is obvious to me that the rhetoric against this FO by some will never change and the judgement will be biased. It's obvious from the defense of the 2010-2015 record vs the criticisms of the 2017-2024 records provided. I chalk it up to some people being biased because this FO has an American leading the ship rather than a Canadian, even though that assumption is also not accurate.

"It certainly helped make the team competitive during the 2021-2023 window when Vlad & Bo were cheap & emerging."

There. Here is a perfectly valid criticism of this front office which is not made up BS of false narrative. It's not that hard to criticize this FO if you can just first accept that they aren't a .500 front office and have performed better than most previous regimes since Gillick. Get past (and accept) that fact and I'm sure you will find a long list of criticisms of this front office that nobody will challenge. At least that's how I feel about them. I liked what they did until 2022 then it went off the rails and their development of minor league support has accelerated the collapse.

No one has said the front office can’t put together a team that ends up over .500. Clearly, this front office has done that more than once. The point is that their overall (cumulative) record is at about .500, that front offices are ultimately assessed on results, and that this front office has failed to assemble a team that won a single postseason game — despite high expectations and a generous payroll. At best, 2016 should come with a large asterisk, as the team was mostly ready-made when Atkins and Shapiro came on board.

Meant to re-quote Pooks' full quote.

"Critics of the front office like to criticize around the edges use of payroll room for middling rentals like Turner & Kiermaier.

But more fundamentally, the FO chose to use the extra payroll resources to buy an aging and close to league average starting rotation in Gausman & Bassitt along with the lengthy Berrios extension.

It certainly helped make the team competitive during the 2021-2023 window when Vlad & Bo were cheap & emerging.

It also speaks to the organization's inability to produce cost-controlled SPs internally. Since Stroman left, there's been one amazing season out of Alek Manoah, one found money month in Bowden Francis after much patience. And a painful lost season of babying and coaxing 4-5 innings out of cheap Cuban import Yariel Rodriguez."

It also speaks to the organization's inability to produce cost-controlled SPs internally"

It's by far the biggest failing of this front office. It isn't even just starters, they have utterly failed to develop any pitchers and it has been a disaster.

The Jimenez-Clement 4-6-3 was a phenomenal play. Jimenez has only played SS once with Clement at 2B, so the Jays' opinion on their defense seems clear unless they want Jimenez's 2B skills sharpened for next season.

"So, the front office signs Happ and you believe credit goes to Anthopolous? This is what I am talking about."

They get some credit. But you have to admit he fell into their laps based on his previous experience here, and was actually signed by the inherited interim GM LaCava.

I think we sometimes get so lost in the minutiae of front office and on-field decisions (day to day, month to month, year to year) that we fail to step back and look at the big picture, as in, how has this front office actually performed over the last decade? It has been a long time since they were hired.

Ugly stop with the BS. Did Vlad "fall into their laps" because his dad signed a deal with the Blue Jays and he grew up in Montreal? Did Edwin fall into AA's lap because Ricciardi identified the talent and initially traded for him?

Greenfrog, I completely agree and I truly feel most people here and in the real world are all aligned on this front office. In a nutshell they opened up the spending from Rogers. Good. Other than that they did some good and bad that led to a better overall team (or were heading that way anyway) but since 2022 it has revealed itself as a plan that did not work and from there is has only gotten worse with the past two off seasons being clear steps back. Add in the playoff performances and the 2024 season performance and its gone from B+ or A- to a B- or C+ at best. Now look at the current status with no long term deal in place for Vlad or Bo combined with subpar minors and the grade is an absolute fail. I also consider AA a fail for most of his tenure but can agree that he likely would have done better had he been able to open up the spending like Shapiro has. I am looking at young AA which I categorize as completely different from AA post LAD and ATL experience and growth.

dalimon5 - my only point was that nothing in MLB correlates with winning more strongly than payroll. So, if you have a significantly bigger (relative) payroll you should be winning more games. You can't just look at the GM of the Dodgers with that of the Pirates and determine who is doing a better job simply based upon the teams' respective records. That's why its difficult to compare the current regime with the last.

I’m guessing the front office will get one more shot. Maybe they’ll get lucky and make, and advance in, the postseason in 2025. With a few deft moves this off-season, it could happen.

Chisholm does nothing but complain. But it gets him web hits. Welcome to the joy that is the internet. I'll never read one of his columns as I dont want to support him.

AA was 3 games over .500 and made the playoff once and lost. I guess that makes him terrible /s

Anyway, I dont think it matters what this regime did in 2017. If had won the World Series last year, who would care?

What matters is how they are doing now. Good trading history, increased budget, some success with FA. Took a silly run at Ohtani, lousy farm system and draft record. Pitching lab resulting in better results but ton of arm injuries.

Its a pretty mixed bag. If they could somehow keep whoever is assessing other team's players (both MLB and MILB) but redo the way they assess and develop amateur talent, they could be quite good.

Its likely that assessing players once in pro ball is more amenable to fancy stats, whereas amateur assessment requires a keen eye and experience.

Maybe improvement can happen with Atkins in charge. He might be too mathy to trust his scouts.

They could fire him and put Chisholm in charge. Then they would not be good at anything.

My hope is Shapiro can change his approach and course of this team. Here's what I hope for:

1. Change GM and improve coaching staff to achieve target of a unique voice. My beef with this entire organization is the "applefication" of it. The entire organization has Shapiro's marks on it and it would be ideal to have someone else leading the team within that "Shapiro eco system." Right now he is calling all shots on the field which is the problem. Just my opinion. Get a GM who can speak for himself and a coach who has his own vision sans "analytics binder." Sure, give him an analytics sidekick but that's it.

2. Overspend this offseason to course correct short term. This would involve massive payouts to Vlad, Bo and then Soto or multiple big adds this off season like Santander+.

3. Re-evaluate internal draft and development procedures and change as necessary

4. Acknowledge the promises made have not yet been achieved and do better.

Jays have reclaimed Tyler Heinemann and DFA'd Brian Serven.

Oy. Here we go again.

• Record 2016-2024 681-663, 507 win% or 82 win pace.
• Record 2019-2024 (time frame I think we can agree the team is nearly 100% Atkins/Shapiro, outside of Vlad who was nearly 100% developed by them even if signed by AA) 443-415 516 win% or 84 win pace.
• Drafts have not worked well - 1st rounders T.J. Zeuch, Nate Pearson, Logan Warmoth, and Jordan Groshans are unqualified failures, Austin Martin quickly moving into that same category, Gunnar Hoglund for Oakland did well in AA, but poorly in AAA, Brandon Barriera had 1 start then injured this year, but hopes are sky high for Arjun Nimmala & Trey Yesavage (the last 2 years 1st round picks). I skipped Alek Manoah who was a star at first, but injuries and whatever last year was have hurt him big time. Round 2 is Bo Bichette & a batch of 'whatever', similar for round 3 (Tiedemann gave us hope, Roden has a lot right now). After 3 rounds it is larely luck of the draw and having good scouting depth that gets you quality.
• Trades: The worst is probably the Donaldson for Merryweather one (due to what could've been had they done a deal a few months earlier), but tons of really good ones - first the Francisco Liriano trades (getting Reese McGuire and Harold Ramírez with Liriano in trade 1, then getting Teoscar Hernández for him in trade 2), up to the deals this summer (the Kikuchi trade looking fantastic right now for everyone - they got their playoff push, we got 3 really good prospects). Hard to really complain imo.
• Free Agency: had to overpay to get Springer (extra year that no one wanted to give him for obvious reasons as we get to that stage), but damn he was nice for a couple of years, as have been Gausman, Ryu, Ray, Semien (sigh... if only a longer term deal was signed), Garcia, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Kiermaier (year 1, year 2 not so much), Green, Clement, IKF.
• IFA: Yariel Rodríguez & Gurriel Jr were expensive IFA's but damn fine signings imo. The others were more long term (you sign at 16, commit at 15 or younger, then it can take up to 9 years for them to show) - Kirk, Moreno, Jimenez (class of 2017), Orelvis Martinez (class of '18), you get the idea. We won't know for sure on classes of 2020 and beyond until around 2030, but those 16/17/18 classes look to have provided at least 1 regular each if Jimenez and Martinez can live up to their hype.
• Playoffs: Yeah, they never won a game during them - but that is on the players (especially in '22 when Bo & Springer smashed into each other and the pen blew a big lead). Making it in 20/22/23 - most playoffs in 4 years in Jays history (tying 1989-1992, through 1991-1994). All while only giving up one hot prospect (Moreno in the Varsho trade) and unlike the 92/93 teams never being #1 in MLB for payroll (yes, the Jays had the biggest those 2 years), high payrolls, but not top 5 outside of CBT purposes in 2023 at the end (#5 on the dot). #6 for opening day this year was the highest opening day one they have had.

Basically, going through that I really can't complain about the management of the team. The players haven't always performed, but few moves were really bad along the way. In retrospect I'd change some things of course, but at the time how many of us said 'no, do xyz instead' ala many of JPR's moves, most of Ash's moves, and a few of AA's.

Going back to the WAR discussion, two brief corrections:

Firstly, ugly, the Baseball Reference version of pitching WAR relies on total runs allowed, not earned runs, so scorer's decisions have zero effect on it.

Secondly, there seemed to be a conflation of replacement level with positional adjustment. And while it's important for a team to know what their internal options are, WAR is trying to give an overall and consistent statement about how good a player has been, which requires a single baseline. WAR aims to answer one question, which is what is the objective contribution that player has made - it does not answer how useful a player is to a team, given its other players and resources.

WAR is trying to give an overall and consistent statement about how good a player has been, which requires a single baseline. WAR aims to answer one question, which is what is the objective contribution that player has made - it does not answer how useful a player is to a team, given its other players and resources."

Tyler Heinemann has a WAR/650 of 3. This is his 7th team in 5 years and he hasn't even got 300 PAs. Very clearly his actual value is nowhere near his WAR value. Defensive catchers are big issue with WAR in general because they get a lot of positional value but are extremely replaceable.

ok gabriel thanks. i haven't looked at BR war in a longwhile.


Heinemann's an intersting case, Glevin - I might argue that he should likely have been a regular MLB backup but has kinda just slipped through the cracks because maybe his defensive value isn't the most obvious kind. He got a late start to his career and then most teams would rather be giving those PAs to a younger guy they perceive as having more upside.

I don't really think it's all that replaceable though really - about half the catchers who have played in MLB this year have negative WAR value - including Brian Serven. It's not that easy to put up a 3war pace even as a catcher.

Excellent way to put it GabrielSyme. Basically, that was the issue the Jays hit with Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen - only 1 could catch at a time and one more could DH. Maybe you could teach one to play LF or 1B or 3B, but that would've been sub-optimal. Thus the deal for Varsho - Varsho at 3.2 fWAR this year, 2.1 last. Moreno 2.2 this year, 2.3 last. Far too close to say much. 5.1 vs 4.5 for Varsho. Yeah, Gurriel Jr added 1.9 last year (then was a free agent anyone could've signed but Arizona resigned him in the end, 1.9 more this year).

BR has it Varsho 4.9+3.9 = 8.8 vs Moreno 4.3+2.1 = 6.4, Gurriel Jr 3.0 (1.8). Net Jays: 8.8, Arizona 9.4 so far. Fairly even again.

Bottom line: Jays had a surplus at C and moved a piece to fix a hole in the OF and didn't really lose any WAR in the process (unless you go to fractions which really isn't useful). Could this move into Arizona's side over the next few years? Sure. It could also move more to the Jays if Moreno gets hurt (as catchers do - see Jansen, Danny for a prime example) and Varsho really comes to life in 2025/26 (I think he has a 6+ WAR season in him).

Moreno's WAR wouldn't have happened here unless Kirk and/or Jansen were pushed aside earlier. Odds are for either you wouldn't have gotten anywhere near as much in return. Kirk bWAR is 1.9+1.6=3.5 over those 2 years, Jansen 1.6+0.6=2.2 plus 3 minor leaguers (Gilberto Batista, Cutter Coffey, Eddinson Paulino - 19/20/21 years old respectively in Rk/A+/AA). Their value would've been diminished if Moreno was still here, would we have gotten the equivalent of those 3 minor leaguers for Jansen a year+ ago? No idea. Would the Jays have made the playoffs in 2022 with Moreno and no Varsho? Hard to say.

I suspect that deal will be talked about for years to come. But it is a great example of doing a deal to shift WAR from an overloaded position to a weak one.

This is getting deep in the weeds but I think you confuse the issue with a discussion about how much the market might pay for/value the different components of WAR. Take Vladdy vs Varsho as a local example. Vladdy is generating a disproportionate amount of his WAR value in offence and Varsho a disproportionate amount of his WAR value through defence. The market clearly considers offensive input as more scarce and is rewarding those whose offensive input is significantly more than those players with high defensive value. Whether there are, in fact, more players who can provide the defensive value of a Varsho than players who can provide the offensive value of a Vladdy is a question I can't answer. But that shouldn't muddy a "contributions to wins" measure where one of its central tenants is that a run saved is worth as much as a run scored.

I don't think those things are different. If teams value offense more because it's more scarce, then it's more valuable and WAR should reflect that. Vladdy is worth more than Varsho and it isn't close. We live an era were like 25/30 teams are well run so I find it very hard to believe that they are passing up wins.

Glevin, I disagree. If Varsho and Vladdy both contribute one run to winning (one be saving a run and one by creating a run) they are both equal in WAR (unless you disagree with the notion that a run saved isn't worth a run scored). That the run scoring might be more scare is a compensation issue not a WAR issue. There could be a different metric for that but WAR, by definition, is not trying to measure "value" in the sense that you mean it.

It's funny cuz the criticism of these types of stats always used to be that they didn't appreciate the great value of defense and pitch framing and all that.....and now that they do, they get criticized for overvaluing.

Whereas I'd be pretty sure that guys like Varsho and Kirk would have been greatly appreciated by the baseball world back in the pre-WAR days.

This doesn't have anything to do with this convo necessarily but i just looked at the most valuable defensive players of the past 3yrs for interest's sake....

* 1. SS D.Swanson: 447gms, 58.8dwar (106wrc+, 15.0war)
* 2. C C.Raleigh: 405gms, 53.4dwar (115wrc+, 13.2war)
* 3. C A.Kirk: 355gms, 48.4dwar (108wrc+, 9.0war)
* 4. C S.Murphy: 321gms, 43.6dwar (116wrc+, 11.0war)
* 5. SS F.Lindor: 469gms, 42.8dwar (127wrc+, 19.3war)
* 6. 2B A.Gimenez: 441gms, 41.7dwar (105wrc+, 12.3war)
* 7. C C.Vasquez: 307gms, 39.7dwar (79wrc+, 3.8war)
* 8. CF D.Varsho: 445gms, 37.4dwar (97wrc+, 9.7war)
* 9. C A.Rutschman: 404gms, 37.0dwar (122wrc+, 14.2war)
* 10. 3B K.Hayes: 356gms, 36.9dwar (84wrc+, 6.4war)

Heineman is an interesting case - the defensive stats see him as a very strong defender, and his offense, while poor, has actually been pretty decent for a glove-first catcher. I can't really see the argument that it's easy to get above-replacement stopgap catchers - as ugly says, the number of guys who get playing time and put up a negative WAR suggests there aren't a lot of above-replacement guys looking for playing time. I think the argument that Heineman is actually replacement level or worse boils down to either his defensive value is wrong/flukey; or his true talent as a hitter is lower than what he's put up so far in his career.

I highly respect John’s positive attitude, but I also feel that we’ve become a bit conditioned to mediocrity in Toronto. A few years of postseason contention — even without a first-place finish or postseason win — every decade or two and we’re like, “great job, front office! You really tried hard!”

Would putting together a package for Mike Trout who is signed for 6 more seasons and playing him in a corner outfield spot for 2 years then transitioning him to full time DH be worth it for the Jays?

Considering that attracting major free agents to Toronto (who haven't already been playing here) is still hard...I say do it.

Brent Rooker (LF/DH) would be a nice add.

Apologies for the typos and general lack of literacy found in my last post:(

Greenfrog - I think it comes from being a fan since 1978 (my first game was an 11-3 loss to the Yankees, my sister went to the game in a Yankee shirt, I wore my Blue Jays cap I got from my paper-route, the Jays/Globe and Mail did a promotion where every carrier got a Jays duffle bag and a ton of Jays crap in it, LOVED it at the time but it all is looooong gone now). Watching the Jays from 1983-1993, nothing but a WS win was acceptable so we had a lot of frustrating years before 92/93 hit. Then we all learned what a blessing that time was from 1994-2014 when the Jays had 0 (zero) playoff games and weren't really close (max of 88 wins). So in '15 I was fine with mortgaging the future to get that playoff appearance, as were most fans I suspect. After '16 we had a mini-slump from 17-19 (ooo, 3 years of no playoffs) before the current cycle hit (3 in 4 years) which wasn't as nice as 15/16 just due to the inability to win in October. 2021 will always be a 'what if' year (what if Semien didn't throw away a short toss to 1st in a game that ended up deciding it since they missed by 1 game for example, I'm sure we could come up with dozens of other plays that led to a loss instead of a win that year too).

We now are in another down cycle, lets hope it is even shorter than the last (maybe just 1 year?). I look at how Atkins handled it this time vs '17, '18, and '19 and it was handled FAR better - clearing out all pending free agents and 2 non-expiring contracts to get a batch of young exciting talent. Anyone not excited by Wagner, Loperfido, and some of the minor leaguers (like Schreck) just must hate baseball. Jake Bloss was seen as the best gained, but hasn't done well (TINSSAAPP), Charles McAdoo seems fun (fast, slumped here but I'm willing to give benefit of the doubt to a guy on his 3rd minor league team in 1 season, his 2nd pro year), Jonatan Clase also looks exciting (same as McAdoo, slumped here but has talent and speed up the wazoo).

This winter is a key turning point for the franchise - do you keep Bo & Vlad, and if so do you extend them? Can you or is it too close to free agency for them? Others to think about are Varsho and Kirk for long term deals (more in the 3-5 year range). Do you go sign a free agent starter or go with Gausman-Bassitt-Berrios plus Rodriguez-Francis with Manoah as a mid-season replacement while kids like Bloss try to break in as well. Do you resign Yarborough or go after more 100 mph arms? Do you risk $10+ mil a year on a high end arm for the pen knowing there is a big risk (as with all relievers) of that arm falling off during the year? Do you empty the vault and try to sign Soto or Bregman or just go for minor additions? These choices will determine if 2025 is a 'go for it' year or another 2019 where kids get broken in and hopefully start a new success cycle.

For defense it is always informative to look at the past. Yeah, they didn't have these stats but using the best we've got who was the best on defense and are they remembered (HOF) today?

• 1977-1999 - early years of the Jays, 23 years to give a good space to work with. Of the top 10 defensive ranked played for that time frame, just 4 had a positive offensive score, one barely (Ivan Rodriguez), with all 4 positive offense and high end defense being in the HOF (Ripken, Carter, Trammell, I-Rod). The guys with negatives for offense from top defense to 10th are Ozzie Smith (HOF), Ozzie Guillen, Bob Boone, Greg Gagne, Omar Vizquel, Jim Sundberg. Devon Whyte is #11 with a near 0 for offense (+4 runs). Just the one made the HOF - and for a time the Wizards of Oz was the top paid or close to it, yes, he was that good on defense. 11-20 has 6 negatives, 4 positives as well (one being Devo) - none made the HOF or really came close. Willie Randolph and Robin Ventura both have good cases though - strong offense and strong defense at 2B/3B respectively. #28 for defense in that era is Tony Fernandez. For offense the top 16 all made it in or had PED issues. A bit surprised to see Dave Winfield had a big negative for defense (-229 runs), far worse than McGriff who I always saw as poor on defense (-128) and Frank Thomas (-168) who never should've been handed a glove - a born DH if there ever was one.
• 2000-now sees Yadier Molina & Russell Martin as the only +300's on defense (Oz & Cal for the earlier period), just 4 of the top 10 are negative on offense though. Seems defense is less valued now than it was pre 2000. #11-20 sees 8 of 10 as negatives on offense though so overall 12 of the top 20 on defense couldn't hit, same as the earlier period. They just must not get as much playing time as in the past thus fewer on the top 10. What is funny is the top 2 for negative offense/positive defense are Yadier Molina and José Molina. Jeff Mathis at #24 is a massive negative with the bat (-204) and a big plus with the glove (+135)
• Go from 1950-2010 (around then defensive stats improved a lot) and you get Ozzie at #1 still, Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger, Cal Ripken, I-Rod, Luis Aparicio all at 300+ runs via defense only. Belanger a massive negative with the bat, as were Aparicio and Smith. Pre-recent days for catchers tossing out runners counted a LOT while pitch framing was a total unknown, thus explaining I-Rod doing so well (he sucked as a framer in his younger days - but was very, very well known for his cannon).

This might be fun to really dig into in the offseason. Us old timers remember guys like Alfredo Griffin getting to play despite horrid bats due to a solid (sometimes unearned) defensive rep. Today we have solid stats to help understand defense. Can't see someone like Griffin getting the chances he did now.

The last 5 years are more relevant in assessing the FO than 2017-18 when they were trying to squeeze any bit of juice out of an inherited aging core and 2019 when they were intentionally tanking. I believe they have a .540 winning percentage from 2020-24 (it was .557 from 2020-23). I would have no issues with a new FO at this point but I don’t think it’s fair to say they are a .500 front office or anything like that. It’s fascinating and frustrating to think about what would have happened if the Jays just held on to the lead in game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card round. Whether they won game 3 or not, would they have made such a drastic change to team construction in that scenario? Would we look at the FO differently with a post season win and/or possibly a DS appearance (they weren’t beating the Astros in all likelihood)?

With that said, if the plan is to keep the FO for at least one more season, then 2025 needs to be a playoff appearance. This winter is going to be massive for the franchise in many ways.

What is the value of Luis Arraez to his team the last few years?

Arraez was traded for Pablo Lopez. I consider Lopez a very good pitcher. A solid #2 IMO.

Convincing Trout to waive his no-trade clause might be harder than attracting a major free agent. The problem for the Angels is that he has 6/213 left on his deal - at that price tag they can't get anything for him without eating a significant chunk of his salary.

Springer and prospects for Trout and cash!

Trading Springer for Trout would certainly help with the OF logjam. They would need lots of guys while Trout was on the DL.

Age/ Games played the last 5 seasons

28 53 GP
29 36 GP
30 119 GP
31 82 GP
32 29 GP (this season)

If the best ability is availability, he doesnt have it. Age wont help.

Springer just has 2 years left on his deal. Its likely to be a bit of an anchor, but Trout's will be much worse.

As fun as getting someone like Trout could be, that contract is a massive weight on any team. Springer's is bad enough now, but Trout goes for longer at a higher dollar amount.

The Jays have claimed another Nick Robertson, another pitcher, from the Angels. Someone will need to be dropped off the 40 man.