If someone posted a thread to the internet and there was no one there to make a comment, would it make a sound?

Was just wondering that myself, Chuck.

Well, an interesting game at least. Horwitz, Clement, and Kirk got all the Jays hits, 5 relievers used (one was an opener) in a 3-2 loss. To do an opener game and use just 5 relievers and allow just 3 runs is damn nice. Scoring just 2 sucks though. And having Serven show why he shouldn't return in 2025 sucks even more (3 passed balls when he only played 2 innings on defense). If I was the Jays I'd be damn tempted to send him down and call up anyone from AAA to be Kirk's backup for the rest of the year after that nightmare. He ain't here for his bat and if his defense falls apart like that then he has zero value.

The air has really come out of the tires the last little bit. I’m still enjoying watching the new guys.

Good day for the tankers, bad day for Brian Steven.

Jimenez now has 12 HBP in 169 PA for a 7.1% rate (after a 6.6% rate in the minors). Ron Hunt, for his career, was at 3.9%.

I don’t know where the 3 came from, but it was 1 PB and 1 WP.

Buck Martinez sounded really irritated, and it's hard to blame him. This is why guys like Nance and Severn are minor leaguers. They play stupid baseball. They issue leadoff walks to bottom of the order hitters. They can't block a ball in the dirt with a runner on third, which Buck probably takes as a personal affront.

Oh, I see why I thought it was 3 - that is his total passed balls for the season. On the box score it says PB Serven (3) and I read that as 3 passed balls (it felt like it watching the game), not a total of 3 on the season.

None the less - I really don't see any point to using him right now. He is 29 has a lifetime OPS+ under 50 (and dropping). His OPS of 769 in AAA this year seems more 'small sample size' than anything. Of course, the other Buffalo options aren't inspiring either - Phil Clarke was a 9th rounder in 2019, is 26, spent part of the year in AA (788 OPS), and is hitting 237/359/345 in AAA, only catching 8% of runners overall this year, 16% career. Ugh. Nick Raposo came over from St Louis where he had a 600 OPS in AAA, and has hit 289/396/378 in Buffalo with a 21% CS rate overall (24% lifetime) - he is also 26 and is on the 40 man right now. Claimed off waivers he might be decent, why not give him a shot instead of Serven? The other catcher in AAA is Max McDowell who is 30, 'hitting' 182/266/325, and has a 12% CS rate this year. No thanks.

Can't imagine the Jays holding onto Serven this winter on the 40 man, so why not see if the other guy on the 40 can cut it as a backup to Kirk before making offseason decisions.

I guess the bright side is that the Jays are losing due to the bullpen, which is the one spot that will likely have significant turnover next season. Since 8/1, the Jays have a 117 wRC+ (tied for 2nd in MLB over that span), .190 ISO (3rd), and 3.25 ERA from the starters (2nd). Losing because of a pen where 90% of the relievers won't be on the team next season (hopefully) isn't the worst outcome.

Jays now in line for 7th pick. With 17 games left, it does not seem likely they can get any higher in the draft as WSH and OAK would need to get hot - not sure how the lottery works.

The "top" 10 is the best spot to be. A's & ChiSox cannot get a top 10 pick after having one last year, so being in the bottom 12 is the goal. Jays are 7th from the bottom, 1/2 a game behind Pittsburgh, 2 behind Cincinnati, 2 1/2 behind the Rangers. Ideally those 3 stay ahead of the Jays in the standings. The Cardinals are 13th from the bottom at 72-71, 5 games ahead of the Jays - can't see the Jays doing that well over the final 17 games to catch them so a top 10 pick is a near lock. Given the ChiSox & A's are below the Jays they are up 2 slots automatically so #5 right now. Based on last years draft the Jays odds as the 5th worst (official) team is 8.3% for #1, that goes up to 14.7% if they 'catch' Washington who is 6 games behind them (not likely). For fun there is a site that does simulations of the draft lottery using current standings - Tankathon. I just ran it and the Jays dropped 2 slots to #7 twice, stayed at #5, up to #4, up to #2, and finally got the #1 pick on the 6th try. The simulation uses 7.48% for the Jays current odds, up to 10.2% if they climb up a slot, down to 5.31% if they drop down a slot. The top 2 get a 22.5% chance each (Miami & Colorado).

"Jays now in line for 7th pick. With 17 games left, it does not seem likely they can get any higher in the draft as WSH and OAK would need to get hot - not sure how the lottery works."

White Sox (Hilariously) and Oakland can't pick in top-10 so Jays are actually 5th spot. Finishing 5th would be great because it would give Jays around a 1/3 chance of getting a top 3 pick which would be amazing and very low chance of picking after 8th. I think Jays are probably going to finish 5-8 spot somewhere which should get a good pick.

This is good about showing the odds.
https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

Of note: despite how bad the Jays were from 1977-1981 (last in the AL East every year) they never have had the 1st overall pick. 59 first overall picks - 2 to the Yankees, 3 to the O's, 4 to the Rays, 0 for the Red Sox (when they suck they tend to not be horrid - their last time losing 100+ was 1965, the first year of the draft, and they weren't in last in the AL, before that you need to go to 1932, over 90 years ago).

Others with multiple 1st overall picks...

• 2: Angels, Atlanta, Diamondbacks, Nationals (0 Expos), Phillies, White Sox, Rangers/Senators (1 each)
• 3: Tigers, Twins
• 4: Seattle
• 5: Astros, Mets, Padres
• 6: Pirates (2 in the 2020's)

A total of 23 teams have had the 1st overall pick. Missing are the Jays, Red Sox, Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies. Kind of surprised the Rockies never had it, same with the Reds - both have a decent shot this year as do the Jays. Cardinals a slim shot.

The most WAR a team has gotten from 1st overall picks is 228.9 for the Mariners (Griffey Jr and A-Rod, to a lesser extent Mike Moore, with their 1979 pick being a total flop in Al Chambers). 2nd is far back in Atlanta (Bob Horner and Chipper Jones totaling 107.2). 3rd is Houston with 86.7 from 5 guys (Floyd Bannister, Phil Nevin, Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, Brady Aiken - last 2 flopped to a net 0.3 bWAR). Just 4 HOF'ers in Alex Rodriguez (well, without PED penalty he'd be there), Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Joe Mauer, Harold Baines (deserves an * as he is nowhere near HOF quality but his buddy got him in) with Bryce Harper a near lock at this point to get in too. 17 reached 30+ bWAR (damn good careers), another 7 reached 20 (kind of surprised Ben McDonald reached that high - he was hyped as a HOF talent when he was drafted but felt like a flop due to the hype), 7 more in the 10's (incudes ex-Jay Jeff Burroughs who was the '85 DH, his final season), 16 more had positive WAR (well, not 100% flops at least), 9 more got ML service time (all negative WAR guys - counts Danny Goodwin twice as he was 1st overall twice in 71 & 75), while 3 were total flops (never reached). Just 3 didn't sign (Tim Belcher '83 Twins, Danny Goodwin '71 White Sox, and Brady Aiken '14 Astros) - note: Belcher signed with the Yankees after going 1st overall in the old January secondary draft but was lost shortly after in the old Free Agent compensation pick draft to the A's, then was the PTBNL in a deal for Rick Honeycutt to the Dodgers before he finally reached.

So a 1st overall pick isn't a lock for greatness but it certainly ups the odds, a lot. The Pirates have had that pick more than anyone at 6 times but their only 20+ WAR guy is Garret Cole (so far) - Paul Skenes has already got more WAR than 2 of their old #1 picks (both negative WAR) and the 2 others were in the teens.

Currently we will be picking #7 in round 2 and after. Hope our 1st pick is better than that just for the extra draft money.

Last time the Jays had a top 10 pick was 2020 (ugh) - Austin Martin the only pick they made that has reached, most of his value was in the trade for Berrios, negative WAR in the majors and virtually everyone here and elsewhere loved the pick. The 4 picks before him have been blah so far too - 2 negative WAR, 1 still in minors, 1 at 0.4 WAR. Just 1 has cracked 5 WAR (Garrett Crochet #11 pick), Max Meyer is who most thought the Jays would get (-0.1 WAR so far, 3rd overall to Miami, 79 ERA+ this year at age 25, 4 times a top 100 prospect). The O's were a surprise taking Heston Kjerstad who has a 131 OPS+ in 81 PA this year in LF/DH. That saved cash so they could sign Jordan Westburg (3.8 WAR, 2.6 this year with a 134 OPS+ at 3B - guess they knew what they were doing) and others. Boy, if the Jays are looking to improve I'd say steal anyone they can from the O's drafting & minor league coaching groups.

How about this for draft info. Sale picked #13, Crochet #11 both by CWS, both LHP and both 6'6".

I kind of like Shane Farrell because I don't think he does much other than organize the info into categories. 1) All the 1st round picks fell to the Jay's turn so they probably were taking the best available player. 2) They picked some HS pitchers in year 21,22,23 & 24 which is a category. Then another category would be hard throwing relievers. TJ Brock, Kai Peterson and C Yeager.

So produce a list for categories and see who is available when your turn comes check their demands and choose. Someone also does the math for saving money for later rounds. Troy Guthrie and Carson Messina got quite big bonuses.

The other thing is the Jays should get a compensation pick after the 2nd round for losing Chapman as long as they stay under the CBT.

I got criticized yesterday for not buy what Bo was selling. I am not the only one

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/buster-olney-isn-t-buying-bo-bichette-s-comments-on-staying-with-toronto-blue-jays-1.2171604

Ducey, the Chapman pick was this past draft - 4th rounder Nick Mitchell.

Oh Jeez. Thanks for the correction.

I hope Buster has recovered after betting the family farm on Springer signing with the Mets.

Dave Laurila talks hitting with Joey Loperfido

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/torontos-joey-loperfido-talks-hitting/c

I see it as Bo reacting to the discussions about extending Vladdy for 300M+.

"I got criticized yesterday for not buy what Bo was selling. I am not the only one"

I agree with you and many Toronto Blue-Jays backed outlets that are calling BS on Bo Bichette. The timing, the message etc is all about $$$.

I think your comment came off a lot more harsh than it was to some because of your inclusion of the victim of the recent tragedy.

Wtf is Vlad doing? He has no business trying to turn a single into a double.

Wtf is Vlad doing? He has no business trying to turn a single into a double.

There were two outs. The break-even to steal second base in this situation is about 67%. Given how close the play was, Guerrero had at least that probability of succeeding.

Jays win.

Thought it was worth looking at how guys have done since the trade deadline - I use August 1st as the start point, up to yesterday's game.

• 1+ WAR: doing damn well: Vlad, Horwitz, Varsho, Kirk, Francis
• 0.5+ WAR: doing OK: Clement, Jimenez, Wagner, Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt
• 0-0.5 WAR: not underwater but not good: Loperfido, Lukes, Springer, Barger, De Los Santos, Berroa, Serven, Yariel Rodriguez, Burr, Pop (honest!), Frias, Ye Rodriguez, Cabrera, Nance
• Sub 0 WAR: Ugh: Schneider, Green, Yarborough, Swanson, Little

Kind of surprised at Pop being at 0 and not well under. Vlad at 1.6 leads the team (#12 in the majors, Judge leads at 2.4). For defense, Kirk is #2 in the majors (7.2 score at FanGraphs vs Patrick Bailey at #1 - 7.5, Austin Wells #3 at 5.5, Varsho is #14 at 3.7). For baserunning Clement is the top Jay at 0.6 but just #72 in MLB. Vlad is #3 in wRC+ at 193 (Yordan Alvarez #1 at 218), Spencer Horwitz #8 at 162.

Hindsight is 20/20 but if the Jays had gone with Horwitz from the first of the season instead of signing Vogelbach and never playing him, then Spencer might have been in the running for Rookie-of-the-Year.

piggybacking on John's post here's 2nd half wRC+:

* 1. 1B Horwitz 194pa, .281babip, 127wrc+
* 2. DH Guerrero 207pa, .378babip, 230wrc+
* 3. 2B Wagner 73pa, .393babip, 152wrc+
* 4. LF Barger 113pa, .243babip, 111wrc+
* 5. CF Varsho 181pa, .279babip, 104wrc+
* 6. SS Jimenez 142pa, .284babip, 101wrc+
* 7. RF Springer 189pa, .235babip, 97wrc+
* 8. C Kirk 152pa, .274babip, 96wrc+
* 9. 3B Clement 191pa, .269babip, 94wrc+

* B. OF Lukes 28pa, .500babip, 201wrc+
* B. OF Loperfido 128pa, .311babip, 69wrc+
* B. IF DeLos Santos 15pa, .300babip, 59wrc+
* B. C Serven 50pa, .276babip, 48wrc+
* B. UT Schneider 104pa, .216babip, 13wrc+


And last 30 days

* 1. 1B Horwitz 101pa, .308babip, 180wrc+
* 2. DH Guerrero 113pa, .333babip, 169wrc+
* 3. 2B Wagner 73pa, .393babip, 152wrc+
* 4. SS Jimenez 76pa, .306babip, 151wrc+
* 5. LF Loperfido 75pa, .360babip, 131wrc+
* 6. RF Springer 102pa, .221babip, 109wrc+
* 7. 3B Clement 104pa, .247babip, 107wrc+
* 8. CF Varsho 100pa, .295babip, 103wrc+
* 9. C Kirk 94pa, .268babip, 93wrc+

* B. OF Lukes 28pa, .500babip, 201wrc+
* B. UT Barger 78pa, .216babip, 103wrc+
* B. C Serven 31pa, .278babip, 56wrc+
* B. UT Schneider 47pa, .150babip, -7wrc+
* B. IF DeLosSantos 7pa, .333babip, -28wrc+

Seems like most players are over 100 wrc+ for the second half.

Big picture:

The Jays are 5th in the AL and 11th in baseball in runs scored since the all star break.

They are 5th in OPS in baseball (3rd in AL) since the all star break. 6th in slugging (3rd in AL).

Is the offense fixed then?

The pitching is 15th in MLB (9th in AL) since the all star break. The Yankees are 19th and Baltimore 20th!

Its only 50 games, but it gives some hope that with a return to form for Bo, a catcher that can hit a little and a LF slugger, the offence could be fine.

On the pitching side, at least we are not Baltimore, lol.

Even as it is, Spencer might well get some down-ticket votes for Rookie-of-the-Year. Although there are other hitters who have accumulated more value, Horwitz has the best hitting line among AL Rookies. Probably not more than a handful of third-place votes, but it would still be nice for him, I'm sure. If he goes on a run and gets his average up to .300, maybe he has a chance at the prize?

Sorry TOR is 15th in ERA since the all star break - 4.12.

HOU and DET are tied at #1 in MLB at 3.09

The Red Sox are 29th in ERA post all star at 5.23

Pitching in the 2nd half:

* SP Francis: 8gms, 5.8ip/gm, .146babip, 49era-, 86fip-, 81xfip-, 1.5war, 5.8war/32gms
* SP Berrios: 9gms, 6.4ip/gm, .252babip, 63era-, 92fip-, 89xfip-, 1.3war, 4.6war/32gms
* SP Gausman: 9gms, 6.6ip/gm, .235babip, 84era-, 94fip-, 119xfip-, 1.2war, 4.1war/32gms
* SP Bassitt: 10gms, 5.6ip/gm, .349babip, 137era-, 108fip-, 89xfip-, 0.2war, 0.5war/32gms
* SP Rodriguez: 9gms, 4.3ip/gm, .275babip, 127era-, 117fip-, 104xfip-, 0.2war, 0.7war/32gms

* RP Yarborough: 12gms, 1.9ip/gm, .185babip, 70era-, 101fip-, 111xfip-, 0.3war, 1.4war/65gms
* RP Cabrera: 21gms, 0.9ip/gm, .273babip, 37era-, 102fip-, 98xfip-, 0.5war, 1.4war/65gms
* RP Green: 21gms, 1.0ip/gm, .203babip, 95era-, 95fip-, 102xfip-, 0.2war, 0.5war/65gms
* RP Burr: 20gms, 0.9ip/gm, .333babip, 127era-, 81fip-, 91xfip-, 0.1war, 0.3war/65gms
* RP Nance: 15gms, 1.1ip/gm, .190babip, 81era-, 106fip-, 95xfip-, 0.1war, 0.2war/65gms
* RP Little: 23gms, 0.9ip/gm, .232babip, 67era-, 136fip-, 103xfip-, -0.1war, -0.1war/65gms
* RP Swanson: 19gms, 0.9ip/gm, .220babip, 79era-, 143fip-, 99xfip-, -0.1war, -0.2war/65gms
* RP Pop: 18gms, 0.9ip/gm, .280babip, 143era-, 88fip-, 96xfip-, -0.2war, -0.7war/65gms

It's also quite possible that if the Jays went with Horwitz over Vogelbach out of spring, he never gets to his current feel at the plate. He wasn't good in spring training and would have been the last option off the bench.

I was surprised with John's list to see Ryan Yarbrough in the negative column. I thought he has pitched well and checking the stats he has other than one game against Baltimore. I think ugly has the better number for him which shows he has been quite valuable.

Also looking at his Dodger numbers he pitched well in April, May and June with ERA's in the 2's and 3's. July was bad, ERA of 6. I guess that's why he was traded.

Yarbrough has 20 IP, 5 runs (all earned) with the Jays. 2.25 ERA, 4.18 FIP.

0.6 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR.

Francis has been 90-92 today, after averaging 93.4 this season. No complaints about the results so far, but he might well be wearing down. Maybe skip a start next time round and go with a bullpen game?

Today is seven days since Francis last pitched. He might need more than an extra day.

On the other hand, maybe reduced velocity, no strikeouts and lots of fly balls is exactly the way to go. Take that, sabermetricians!

Vogelbach had 23 PAs before May and that was because Turner was the Jays best hitter so calling Horwitz up in April (even though he was much worse than Vogelbach in spring) means he sits on the bench and doesn't play. Vogelbach had 33 PAs in May. Horwitz had 137 PAs in May in the minors. Does he develop his power getting 2 starts a week? They probably could have called him up end of May instead of June 8 but then he wouldn't have been able to play 2B and wouldn't have had quite as many abs after. Realistically, you're talking about Horwitz getting maybe 20-30 more PAs but then also getting fewer after because he can't play 2B.

The reason Horwitz didnt get called up earlier is that they were trying/ training him at 2B as Turner was the DH.

He started playing for the first time there in mid May. He played 11 times at 2B before his call up. He also had 2 HR all season before he hit one on each of June 1 and 2. A couple of days later he was up.

hypobole - just checked and FanGraphs for August 1st to now has Yarbrough at 16 2/3 IP 2.70 ERA but 5.35 xFIP for a -0.1 fWAR. What is odd is if I go with no filters he does show up as 0.0 fWAR as a Jay but with 20 IP but if I check by gamelogs he only has 16 2/3 IP as a Jay both by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference - both have the same error giving him an extra 3 1/3 IP unless you go by game logs instead of their season summary - he pitched 3 1/3 innings his last 3 games as a Dodger FWIW, but adding those games doesn't get the other stats to line up. It is weird.

Today's game had good and bad - good was Francis (duh) going 8 no hit innings before being gassed. He looked tired a lot earlier and if he had allowed a hit at any point pre-9th inning he would've been pulled after 7 I suspect. To pitch that well against a contender who is desperate to win every game is quite the trick, especially when you look to be at less than your best. I suspect he is moving into mortal lock for the #4 slot for 2025 if he wasn't already. Bad was Green - what happened? I think it is clear he has hit a wall. Remember, Green the past 2 years has a total of 27 ML IP, and is at 49 IP for 2024. My gut says his arm is tired and the Jays should shut him down for the winter, no reason to get him injured again. The offense was a dud, but it seems to alternate dud's and 'woohoo' games lately. To be expected with so many kids in the lineup.

Yarbrough pitched 3.1 innings the game against Boston that was postponed on June 26.

Ah, that explains it. Thanks Evair. It was bugging me. Forgot the time-travel game.

The Mariners have put Garcia on the 60IL with elbow inflammation.

Yeah, the Garcia deal is a good reminder of the danger of trading for relievers. He was solid here but they got 10 games, 9 IP allowing 6 R/ER for Jacob Sharp (OF hitting 245/331/416 in A/A+ at 22) and Jonatan Clase (22 year old CF/LF in AAA hitting 257/343/442 overall with 33 SB vs 12 CS after stealing 79 last year). Now he is a free agent once the season is over and won't throw one more pitch for Seattle as part of that deal. Anyone could sign him this winter including the Jays with the only cost being the cash it takes while Seattle gets nada.

I just wonder what they might have gotten for Green had they traded him too. Yeah, the past few weeks would've been worse without him but he seems to have hit a wall now (probably due to throwing under 20 innings each of the past 2 years, and now being close to 50 for this year). Ah well, what is done is done. I'm just really glad they got what they did for Kikuchi as I like Wagner and Loperfido - both could be important pieces in 2025 and beyond, as could Clase. As could others they traded for. Sometimes a bad year can work out to be a good thing it seems (one step back so you can make 2 steps forward).

Francis' average fastball velocity was a career-low last night by about 1 mph. On the positive side, he was able to generate weak contact all night long; on the negative side, he wasn't able to strike anyone out. This past month he's probably thrown more pitches than any period in his career, and even with extra rest he had lost a significant amount off his fastball.

I'd be perfectly happy shutting Francis down right now. Give Yarborough the starts.

Yimi has been worked hard 2021,22,23 pitching in 62,61 and 73 games so he broke down.

IMO various prospects will repeat their league Class AAA, McAdoo & Dasan Brown AA. Which is fine.

Plausible Best Possible Lineups


Using 2024 Stats Only

* 1. 1B Horwitz 320pa, .305babip, 137wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 2. DH Guerrero 630pa, .339babip, 164wrc+, 4.8war/650
* 3. 2B Wagner 81pa, .367babip, 131wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 4. SS Jimenez 173pa, .312babip, 108wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 5. 3B Clement 394pa, .269babip, 99wrc+, 3.5war/650
* 6. CF Varsho 513pa, .262babip, 98wrc+, 4.1war/650
* 7. RF Springer 567pa, .243babip, 97wrc+, 1.6war/650
* 8. C Kirk 337pa, .364babip, 87wrc+, 4.6war/650
* 9. LF Loperfido 230pa, .346babip, 85wrc+, 1.1war/650

* B. UT Schneider 410pa, .260babip, 78wrc+, 0.3war/650
* B. UT Barger 180pa, .246babip, 76wrc+, -0.7war/650
* B. IF Bichette 331pa, .266babip, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650
* B. C Serven 69pa, .244babip, 42wrc+, -0.9war/650

* X. OF Lukes 33pa, .400babip, 154wrc+, 5.9war/650
* X. IF DLSantos 18pa, .364babip, 91wrc+, 3.6war/650
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .500babip, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* X. OF Berroa 41pa, .250babip, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, .296babip, 34wrc+, -1.5war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

* 1. 1B Horwitz 334pa, .303babip, 132wrc+, 3.5war/650
* 2. DH Guerrero 698pa, .330babip, 163wrc+, 4.7war/650
* 3. 2B Wagner 81pa, .367babip, 131wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 4. SS Jimenez 173pa, .312babip, 108wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 5. CF Varsho 568pa, .258babip, 100wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 6. 3B Clement 399pa, .271babip, 99wrc+, 3.4war/650
* 7. RF Springer 645pa, .245babip, 93wrc+, 1.2war/650
* 8. C Kirk 393pa, .255babip, 88wrc+, 4.5war/650
* 9. LF Loperfido 230pa, .346babip, 85wrc+, 1.1war/650

* B. IF Bichette 413pa, .280babip, 77wrc+, 0.9war/650
* B. UT Barger 180pa, .246babip, 76wrc+, -0.7war/650
* B. UT Schneider 453pa, .248babip, 72wrc+, 0.0war/650
* B. C Serven 69pa, .244babip, 42wrc+, -0.9war/650

* X. OF Lukes 34pa, .385babip, 146wrc+, 5.7war/650
* X. IF DLSantos 18pa, .364babip, 91wrc+, 3.6war/650
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .500babip, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* X. OF Berroa 41pa, .250babip, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, .296babip, 34wrc+, -1.5war/650




Using Fangraphs' Combined Rest of Season Depth Chart Projections

* 1. 1B Horwitz .355obp, 120wrc+, 3.0war/650
* 2. DH Guerrero .370obp, 149wrc+, 4.1war/650
* 3. SS Bichette .318obp, 113wrc+, 4.1war/650
* 4. RF Springer .320obp, 110wrc+, 2.2war/650
* 5. C Kirk .338obp, 110wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 6. CF Varsho .297obp, 104wrc+, 3.3war/650
* 7. 2B Wagner .328obp, 103wrc+, 3.2war/650
* 8. LF Schneider .314obp, 102wrc+, 1.6war/650
* 9. 3B Clement .302obp, 99wrc+, 1.7war/650

* B. UT Barger .300obp, 98wrc+, 1.4war/650
* B. IF Jimenez .321obp, 95wrc+, 3.6war/650
* B. OF Loperfido .289babip, 87wrc+, 0.0war/650
* B. C Serven .251obp, 57wrc+, 0.0war/650

* X. OF Lukes .327obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Martinez .284babip, 94wrc+, 2.1war/650
* X. OF Clase .278obp, 77wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Berroa .289obp, 76wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF DLSantos .277obp, 73wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Raposo .266obp, 69wrc+, 0.0war/650




The current year and the past 1 calendar year stats obviously getting closer and closer as we approach the end of the year, and unsurprisingly they pretty much agree on the lineup.

The projections still see Bichette as one of the best going forward tho, while they still see Jimenez as on the bench. And the projections still believe in all of Schneider, Barger, Lukes much more than they do in Loperfido for that LF slot.

You seem to be using stats to make a point, but then ignoring said stats with respect to Lukes and Loperfido.

I don't know that any of the stats are there to "prove" any point other than to give a ballpark idea of the state of the roster now and in the immediate future tbh.

Lukes is just such a tiny sample (33pa this year and even the projections are only for 6pa!) that i don't want to be too much of a homer to just stick him in the starting line as if it's a reliable sample. But i'm a Lukes fan and have being saying he could easily be a quality piece on the Jays for the past 2yrs.

I'm not sure which stats you think i'm ignoring re: Loperfido tho?

oh are you saying that I should be slotting Lukes ahead of Loperfido....ah yeah that's probably it. I wouldn't argue with that tbh. But again, it's such tiny samples for Lukes.

Then again the sample for Wagner isn't much bigger....but it is bigger and i couldn't resist the temptation to stick him in the starting lineup. And more importantly the projections are for close to fulltime duty for Wagner the rest of the year (41pa), not just the 6pa spot duty being projected for Lukes.

I hope this isn’t a dumb question, but what is the relevance of the playing time projections? Do the models give a different slash line projection for a player at 6 PA than they would give if they projected him for 60 PA?

The big issue would be whether they're projecting them for platoon matchup duty or not I think.

But you're right it might not actually matter. Especially since being projected for 40pa the rest of the way is probably platoon duty too.

If the stats there make you lean towards slotting Lukes in as the deserved starter....go for it! I have no problem with it. I thought about it myself.

Lukes is an interesting player - he certainly looks like he should be playing at least as a 4th OF, but damn if it isn't hard to figure out how he fits on the team in 2025.

CF: Varsho, RF: Springer - those are written in stone like it or not. LF is the battle - Schneider the right handed hitter, Loperfido the likely left-handed hitter, with Barger (L), Lukes (L), Berroa (S), Roden (L), Brown (R), Schreck (L), Clase (S) all fighting it out to take over LF or to be a backup. For backups Lukes and Berroa have advantages due to the team not seeming to care about further development (doesn't see either as a ML regular) but with a 4 man bench it'd be hard to fit a 5th OF. I see the LH OF slot being a good battle between Loperfido, Roden, Clase, and Schreck with Lukes on the edge as a 'in case of emergency break glass' guy.

The IF is overflowing as well, with Bo & Vlad the dead on locks, 2B a battle between Schneider, Wagner, Horwitz, Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez and Clement; 3B between Clement, Barger, Orelvis Martinez, and Vlad eating some time there too. Phew. Jimenez & Clement are out of options so they have to make the team or be let go. Barger & Orelvis will be on their final options next year, as will Clase so all will get time next year to see if they deserve a full spot in 2026, but will need to earn their time in 2025. Right now I'd expect Wagner/Clement to win their positions, Jimenez as the primary backup but Barger could claim 3B easily and force Clement into a backup role (as a RH hitter with 2 LH at 2B/3B he would get a lot of playing time).

Basically, baring trades, I see Lukes best bet for making the 2025 team to be injuries or the Jays flopping on the free agent market thus having the DH slot wide open which would cause more rotation of Springer into it, thus a use for Lukes if Schneider shares LF with Loperfido or Roden or Clase in 2025. Note: Schreck doesn't need to be added to the 40 man until after the 2026 season so he'd need to break down the door and force it to make the team in 2025 (ie: an OPS over 1000 in AAA) or have all the other kids flop, and flop badly.

Bichette
Wagner
Guerrero
Horwitz
Springer
Varsho
Kirk
Lukes
Clement

Barger
Schneider
Loperfido
Serven

you think Leo needs more time in the minors?

i have a hard time keeping him off the squad given he can field SS and has hit better than most of them (at both mlb and aaa) this year. and is the youngest.

Is this for this year or next? If this year, I would think De Los Santos is the logical guy to go down to make room for Bo rather than Jimenez, as we have the extra roster spot right now.

If for next year, well... I wouldn't want Serven to be breaking camp with the team, and Schneider really has to earn a spot next Spring Training, in my view.

It's for next season, using what's available today. Jimenez goes down so that he's ready when needed instead of rotting on the bench. He may not have an option left, though, in which case it's Schneider who is out of luck.

I'd carry Jimenez over Schneider, regardless of options, in part because I think Schneider needs to get some confidence back. Also because he's been abysmal for the last three and a half months.

But the point is moot - Jimenez will be out of options next year.

What this shows, however, is the Jays have lots of reasonably interesting infielder options. The logical thing would be to trade Bichette, in my humble opinion. And if that's not in the cards (Bo agrees to a favourable extension!) then the next logical thing would be to trade Clement, who could slot into a starting role for a team looking for a cheap, league-average player (or better - BR has him at 3.6 WAR this year!)

Springer, Varsho and Kirk are all locks but none of them really deserve to be at the top of the lineup.
Vlad is a lock to hit 3rd.
There isn't a huge difference between Bichette and Jimenez. Bichette has a higher ceiling but Jimenez has a higher floor.
Keeping Bichette he should be hitting lead off. If not, he would go to a contender and the return would mostly be prospects.
Without Bichette, there's no obvious lead off hitter.
Either way, shortstop is taken care of.

They need at least 1 bat, preferably 2.
LF is the glaring spot to upgrade, which put Loperfido as the 4th outfielder. He fits well since he can play all outfield positions.
DH is a possibility, but Guerrero can be rotated there with Springer.
Between Horwitz and Wagner, they seem to have 2B covered well enough. They can upgrade from Clement at third but it would be expensive and the gain might not be huge.
Also, I don't mind Barger getting some ABs there and in RF.

Right now, they are playing the vets at the top of the lineup, which is fine. I'm not trying to win games.

Hard to see Lukes keeping a spot. Probably not much trade value either.
Schneider has worked himself back to Buffalo.

Going by OBP Horwitz (363) deserves to be #2 just before Vlad (394 to lead the team). Wagner might be good as a leadoff while his average stays up (346 OBP with a 312 avg). Jimenez is also above the 330 level (335) which I consider the minimum to be a top 3 hitter in the lineup. Also over 300 (but under 310) is Kirk & Springer. For #4/5 I like sluggers (get those OBP guys in) if you go by ISO you get Vlad (duh), Horwitz, Varsho, Barger all over 175. Also over 150 is Loperfido, Springer, Clement, Wagner, and Jimenez. Schneider is close and with a hot streak would be over 150 quickly. Just 2 on the 40 man still are sub 100 - Bo & Serven. Ick. Kirk is at 105 - what the heck happened to Bo & Kirk's power?

Just 3 guys left with a 10%+ walk rate, Horwitz, Schneider, Vlad (gone are Vogelbach, Turner, Jansen, and Biggio who still are 1-4 among guys with 50+ PA for the Jays). Springer is close at 9.9%. In the 'you can't walk to the majors' category is sub 5%'ers Wagner, Barger, Loperfido, and Clement at 2.3% the least willing to walk. Luckily Clement also is the only Jay under 10% for K%.

ESPN has an article on the Twins releasing Derek Bender, their A catcher for telling opposite hitters what pitches were coming during a game. 
The Might Mussels narrowly missed the playoffs as Bender spent the last 2 games in the bullpen.
Apparently, he wanted the season over sooner. 
Bender was drafted this year in the 6th round and signed for 297.5K. 

A little chatter about Roden and Kacevich in the other thread. This is good.

So it is decided that Springer, Varsho, Kirk, Bo and Vlad are locks to be regulars and play as much as they can at the positions that are considered theirs if they are healthy and still with the Jays. "Everyone" else is a variable competing for playing time. Variable means sort of unknown or a question mark. This is how I am interpreting the majority of the comments. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Then IMO there are bigger unknowns. The major big unknown is "do the Jays actually want to compete?" This means are they serious about competing and how serious? All the comments from the media and us definitely is not producing an answer. ie speculation. Shapiro/Atkins may definitely say their plan is to compete or not compete. I am not waiting for an announcement. I will not believe it anyway.

I do have my own speculation on the above which will consist of some correct and some wrong. I also definitely expect some bauxites to be optimistic and others pessimistic.

The Jays want to compete just like Guerrero wants to hit home runs. The lack of seriousness is all in the media.
In business, we reward effort but we use results to measure effort.
What's the measure of a club's seriousness? I'll say payroll.
The 2024 payroll was historically high and the 2025 payroll is probably going to be similar.

I don't think Bo is a lock for anything. His name will come up a lot in trade talks.

Matt Chapman - 7th most valuable player in MLB by WAR standards this season. He slots right there between Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor.

We will see if Chapman justifies his new contract. I get the feeling he wont. 3B dont age well, and a lot of his value is with the glove.

In terms of the Jays, I think the OF next year should be:

CF Dalton
RF George
LF FA Bopper
4th OF Lukes

Loperfido is interesting, but he needs to tighten up his swing. Playing everyday should be the priority.

He can fight for first call up with Roden and Berroa. Given the glut of OF, Schneider should not be in the picture there as his D is marginal. If he can reset with the bat, maybe he is rough platoon piece at 2B (given Wagner and Horwitz will be there).

I'd be trading Bo this winter. There is no way that he is going to sign a discounted deal. He will want to bet on himself and go to FA. That means going thru the season with him walking at the end of it. Trading him if the team is within range of the playoffs is not going to be palatable, so then there is decent chance he walks with a QO. The only way hanging on to him works is if he is great and the team stinks.

It all comes down to the offers on the table this winter for Bo, but its seems like there should be enough interest that the Jays could get a good SP or catching prospect for him, along with a Wagner type. The 3 for 1 along the Kikuchi model would be fine, with better pieces.

If Bo is gone then the IF is:

1B Vlad
2B Wagner
3B Barger
SS Jimenez
DH Horwitz

Bench: Clement (he would play almost every day), Lukes, Catcher, De Los Santos/ IKF type (maybe replaced by Schneider after a month or so if he is back on the beam)

I love WAR but it's not great for comparing a thirdbaseman, a shortstop and a DH.
Chapman was worth 3.6WAR in 22 and 4.4 in 23. Whatever he's doing in SF is working for him but I think he would have been around 4 WAR if he'd stayed in Toronto.
Clement is at 3.6 WAR which is pretty close to what Chapman did here when you consider the number of games played.
Clement is making the minimum.
The Giants are paying Chapman 25M until he turns 37. That will probably not end well.
They are currently 72-75 and 8.5 games out of the last wildcard.
They are also paying Jung Hoo Lee over 100M over the next 5 years.

Checking FanGraphs I get Clement at 2.1 WAR in 124 games (most value via defense). Filter to just 3B time and it is 1.0 WAR over 78 games (270 PA). For Chapman it is 5.1 fWAR over 143 games more offense than defense. BR has Chapman at 6.7 bWAR, Clement at 3.6

So adjust both to 150 games and you get Chapman 5.3 fWAR/7.0 bWAR and Clement at 2.5/4.4 - damn good, but not close to Chapman. Of course, Clement is just 28 and Chapman is 31, Clement cost $757k (has 4 years of arbitration ahead before free agency after 2028 after age 32 season) vs Chapman $18 mil (plus 6 more years for $151 mil or $25.2 mil per year ends at age 37). No question whatsoever that Chapman is the premium talent between the two, but for $/win Clement is the winner right now and probably will continue to be. Of course, the name of the game is to win and Chapman is the better choice for now and the next year or two although by the end of his deal he may not be anymore.

Thought I'd split apart Clement - at 3B 1.0 fWAR (78 G), at SS 0.8 fWAR (26 G), at 2B 0.0 fWAR (3 G), in OF 0.0 (1 G), as a PH 0.3 (244 wRC+ in 13 PA/G), as PR 0.0 (3 games, scored twice).

The pinch running got me thinking - who is used the most by the Jays? 7 pinch runners, 3 used 3 times - Clement, Kiermaier, and Berroa (seems appropriate). Used twice Jansen, Biggio, Serven, and Varsho. Obviously Jansen & Serven were for Kirk. Only Jansen failed to score out of those 7, 17 times a pinch runner used, 11 runs scored. Not bad. Perfect 2/2 is Biggio/Serven/Varsho. Berroa the only one to steal a base after coming in to pinch run (twice but also caught stealing, the only one to have that happen). In the majors Dairon Blanco leads with 30 times being used as a pinch runner for KC (19 times scored, 19 SB, 3 CS), next most is 11. All time for the Jays (FG has 2002-now so I'm limited to that time frame) #1 for pinch running is John McDonald at 24 times lifetime - 16 runs scored, 2 SB/2 CS. Rajai Davis used 15 times and stole a team leading 7 bases vs 1 CS. In fact, John McDonald is the only Jay ever caught twice when used as a pinch runner. Dewayne Wise the only guy other than McDonald to score 10+ times as a PR (15 times used, 10 times scored, perfect 6-0 SB-CS). A few guys used twice who didn't score, but anyone used 3+ times scored at least once. NOTE: checked BR and found Dave Stieb was used as a pinch runner 10 times in his career (remember, he was drafted as an OF).

going back to that potential roster discussion going forward (with the players we have.....

* 1. 1B/DH Guerrero
* 2. SS Bichette
* 3. CF Varsho
* 4. C Kirk
* 5. RF Springer
* 6. 1B/DH Horwitz
* 7. 3B Clement
* 8. LF Lukes
* 9. 2B Wagner

* B. IF Jimenez
* B. C ?????
* B. OF/UT Barger
* B. OF/UT Schneider
* B. OF Loperfido


Obviously we need a new backup C.


But are all of Barger/Schneider/Loperfido in a similar position regarding options? are any of them out of options?

"Without Bichette, there's no obvious lead off hitter."

Bichette has a career .332 OBP and no longer is fast enough to steal bases. I don't think he's a leadoff hitter, that batting average potential is higher served driving in runs.

"But are all of Barger/Schneider/Loperfido in a similar position regarding options? are any of them out of options?"

All have options next year.

AAA next year

* CF Clase 23
* RF Roden 25
* LF Schneider 26 (or Loperfido/Barger/Lukes depending on who's in mlb)
* 3B McAdoo 23
* SS Kasevich 24
* 2B Paulino 22
* 1B Nunez 24
* C Serven 30
* DH Martinez 23

* UT Tirotta 26 / Palmegiani 25
* OF Berroa 26 / Schreck 24
* IF DeLosSantos 27 / Dejesus 23
* C Clarke 27 / Raposo 27

with struggling older guys like Robertson and Lantigua dropped, and guys like Brown and Pinango repeating AA (if they're still with the org).

Rainer Nunez will be a minor league free agent, so he too might find greener pastures.

I think there's a very good chance Roden is the best option for left field right out of the gate next year. He's probably the best option right now, but the Jays understandably don't want to start the clock ticking and use up an option at the tail end of an uncompetitive season - and it's not as if Lukes and Loperfido shouldn't be in the majors.

Roden might be a reason to not sign a big-bopping LF. After a very slow first month in AAA, he's been rocking about a 180 wRC+ for the past two months, and he's got a good combination of moderate power, strong contact skills and good plate discipline. Maybe I'm out over my skis with Roden - he's not regarded super highly by any prospect analyst I've seen - but his current performance is very impressive, and I like prospects who show rapid improvement.

The Jays are in a pretty good spot to have a rebuilding/retooling year. Lots of young guys who have to get sorted out, and at least one valuable trade chip - Bichette. And the pitching staff looks like it will take more than a single offseason to fix. But a real rebuilding year probably isn't what Rogers is willing to do, however logical it appears on paper.

I don't think Paulino or McAdoo will be in AAA to start the year. Outside of a one week span, McAdoo did quite poorly with the Jays, so I anticipate he'll be given a Roden like scenario, and start in AA.

I think we could be looking at more like:

C: FA
1B: Nunez
2B: O Martinez
3B: Palmegiani
SS: Kasevich
LF: Roden
CF: Clase
RF: Schreck
DH: Tirotta

Turconi (2B/SS)
De Los Santos (IF)
Clarke (C/1B)
Sosa (C)
Berroa (OF)
De Jesus (3B)

A few notes - they might do the same to Schreck as I think they'll do with McAdoo, and start him in AA, given he has so few AA at-bats. The Jays don't usually promote to AAA aggressively.

With the sheer number of R5 eligible and Minor League FAs in AA and AAA, it'll be interesting to see what they do.