The Blue Jays did the same thing to Tom Henke, and I still haven't forgiven them.

I have no memory whatsoever of Tom Henke being a St. Louis Cardinal in 1995.

Henke was originally a Ranger and came to Toronto in 85 as a free agent compensation pick.
I didn't know that.
I didn't even know there was such a thing as compensation picks.

I was more annoyed over Jimmy Key being given the bums rush out of town. We all knew the Jays weren't going to resign him during the '92 WS where he got the win in 2 of the final 3 games, instead the team went cheap and signed Dave Stewart for 2 years (vs the 3-4 Key wanted and got from the Yankees). Henke's final 3 years (the 3 post-Jays) saw him get 91 saves, 15 blown, and 1 hold. I guess with the 1993 WS win we can forgive them (banners fly forever after all), but those 2 would've helped in the dark 94 & beyond period. Of course, I suspect both decisions were largely by Ash who was slated to take over from Gillick after 1994 so any long term deals he'd have probably signed off on, or fought.

Indeed, you don't let elite talent go if they want to see. There's always a way to defer the problem if need be.

With the Braves up half a game on the Mets yestderday, some sites had them at 18:1 to win the World Series while NYM was 75:1. It was quite the disparity, even if ATL's schedule is one series easier. The Jays might play a big role in determining that race, though they can both still make it.

Fried is a free agent, so the Jays should be scouting him closely tonight. It's a bit surprising to see De Los Santos sitting vs. a lefty, but he'll get his shot on Sunday vs. CY Sale. Fun! Fried has reverse career splits that are even more pronounced this year.

I was always a Duane Ward guy, so moving on from Henke made sense to me.

"Fried is a free agent, so the Jays should be scouting him closely tonight."

I dont see any way they shell out $20M+ for Fried when they have a starting five already. Francis has presumably secured spot #5. And they have Bloss #6 and a bunch of other guys who are patched up and will be ready by summer.

The shopping list will be 2 or 3 bullpen arms, a catcher, LF, and maybe a 3B or 2B or utility guy.

10 years since one of the best articles about baseball ever published...
https://not.fangraphs.com/dangerous-experiment-a-roster-of-25-adam-dunns/

It is odd that De Los Santos is sitting tonight but I do think that he's a very "long shot" prospect. I sort of like that Wagner is in tonight - testing him against some tough LHP in September to see how he handles that isn't a bad thing.

Orelvis Martinez (80-game suspension) can begin playing on a minor-league assignment this Sunday as he finishes the final 15 days of his suspension, which is up on Sept 23.

Martinez won't return to the Blue Jays major-league roster this season, per source

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) September 6, 2024

Blue Jays plan to send Bo Bichette (calf) on a rehab assignment with the triple-A Buffalo Bisons on Tuesday

Bichette will likely play 4-5 games while on rehab split between shortstop and designated hitter

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) September 6, 2024

Jordan Romano (elbow) won’t be returning to Blue Jays this season

He’s been throwing in Florida for over a week now but ran out of time to get back to the majors. He’ll continue progressing to mound work heading into his off-season

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) September 6, 2024

Watching the Jays as a kid with my father in the 80s, Henke was a definite favourite for us both. Probably had something to do with Henke being just about the same age as my father, with a similar tall, gangly build, and wore very similar glasses.

Frustrating game. One bad inning where Gausman had zero luck with balls finding holes. Sigh.

Romano being close but not quite ready is interesting. Will the Jays then offer him a contract for 2025 near $10 mil (arbitration always results in a raise) and hope he is a solid closer or is he worth it? He has been a solid closer but closers can lose it quickly. I expect him back for 2025 via arbitration, then he goes to free agency.

The post 2025 free agents will be interesting to watch this winter - Vlad, Bo the headliners with Romano next - those 3 are the only ones I expect the Jays will try to sign long term this winter (Romano to a 2 year deal, Bo max 5 years, Vlad a lifetime deal). Bassitt will be a tough choice given his age (will go to free agency but Jays might try to resign him then), Green they probably regret not taking the 3 year option instead of the 2 year one (can't see him agreeing to an extension). Swanson & Cabrera are relievers who aren't elite thus year to year.

Yarborough is the only free agent the team has for this winter - I expect them to try to resign him, but it won't be for a massive amount or more than 2 years.

MLB.com lists all free agents by position, for relievers they have: Kenley Jansen, Giovanny Gallegos (club option), Ryan Pressly (mutual option), Craig Kimbrel (club option), Hector Neris (club option), Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Daniel Bard, Kendall Graveman, David Robertson (mutual option), Paul Sewald, Jonathan Loáisiga, Blake Treinen, Scott Barlow, John Brebbia, Diego Castillo, Andrew Chafin (club option), Adam Cimber, Jake Diekman, Seranthony Domínguez (club option), Carlos Estévez, Dylan Floro, Josh Fleming, Shintaro Fujinami, Luis García, Yimi García, Jakob Junis (mutual option), Phil Maton (club option), Matt Moore, Brent Suter, Luke Jackson (club option), Tommy Kahnle, Joe Kelly, Andrew Kittredge, José Leclerc, Jorge López, Chris Martin, Nick Martinez (opt-out), Keynan Middleton (club option), Shelby Miller (club option), A.J. Minter, Emilio Pagán (opt-out), Wandy Peralta (opt-out), Tanner Scott, Lucas Sims, Will Smith, Ryne Stanek, Josh Staumont, Chris Stratton (player option), Lou Trivino (club option), Kirby Yates. Wow, looooong list. Any names that catch peoples eye for chasing down?

"I dont see any way they shell out $20M+ for Fried when they have a starting five already. Francis has presumably secured spot #5. And they have Bloss #6 and a bunch of other guys who are patched up and will be ready by summer."

I don't disagree, but I think they'd be foolish to not consider it. Max Fried might be a bit too expensive (though he'd be our ace), but there are other names that could be worth a look, like Nick Martinez, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Matt Boyd, Andrew Heaney, Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, etc.

Our rotation has been significantly strengthened by great defense which has helped buoy some concerning underlying numbers. This is a rotation with potential concerns. Bassitt and Gausman are getting older. Berrios has not been the model of consistency we expected. Francis had a great month but it's early to rely on him. Rodriguez has good stuff but is still learning to be an effective starter. We have a lot of regression potential.

I do think we have some interesting pitchers in AA that will likely hit AAA next year, so our "depth" will be better than its been in a few years (Bloss, Wallace, Macko, Estrada, Sanchez). But perceived depth can disappear real quick.

Only three relievers look interesting to me:

Scott Barlow
Yimi Garcia
David Robertson

All of them would be good options but not to close. Tanner Scott is good but not interesting to me for the price he will command.

There are way more options with starting pitchers than bullpen so I hope they can sign at least one strong SP or bounceback candidate. They should be planning for 7 SP minimum including Bloss and Rodriguez which means they have a hole to fill. I expect they will stick to short term deals for SP's because they should get some more help from top prospects in 2026 (Berriera, Tiedeman, Manoah).

If this FO does not sign two bat-first power players then they really don't want to accept the reality they are in.

I would be happy if the Blue Jays:

Extended Vladdy
Added one big bat (LF/DH)
Added one good SP
Added a couple of bullpen arms

Bonus points for trading Springer and executing a couple of good trades (such as a consolidation trade of a few surplus prospects for a higher-value prospect or MLB player).

The idea that Rodriguez is definitely a starter seems questionable to me so finding another SP is likely to me. Yarbrough and Rodriguez in the pen with Bloss in AAA seems like a solid plan.

greenfrog - so a perfect winter is extend Vlad, sign Soto, sign Fried, and assorted pen arms (Clay Holmes perhaps). If the Jays do all of that I think most of us would be in total shock. More likely signing the 'Temu' or 'Wish' versions - Charlie Morton, Tyler O'Neill, and a batch of AAAA arms for the pen.

I personally think it's a mistake to try and build a bullpen from the free agent market - or pay market value for any top relievers. Look at how the pitchers from the Top 5 bullpens in the majors (by WAR) were acquired:

Cleveland: UFA (college), milb trade, 5th rnd pick, 29th rnd pick, 8th rnd pick, milb purchase, 2nd rnd, 4th rnd

Miami: milb trade, milb waivers, milb FA, 16th rnd, milb trade, MLB trade, MLB trade

Atlanta: MLB trade, MLB trade, MLB trade, milb FA, MLB trade, milb FA, supp 1st rnd

San Diego: milb waivers, UFA, UFA, MLB trade, MLB trade, Rule 5, UFA, milb trade

Philly: milb FA, MLB FA, 5th rnd, MLB trade, MLB trade, MLB trade, MLB trade, UFA

Top bullpens come from low market teams: Cleveland, Miami, Cincy, Minnesota, Milwaukee, and Oakland are all in the Top 10.

Because they have excellent amateur and pro scouting, and good player development (most of the draft players were starters that flammed out and were made into outstanding relievers). The Jays need to vastly improve their pro scouting, and amateur scouting... and also improve their player development to avoid so many pitchers' injuries and also get more out of them.

Just a guess, but I feel there is about a 60-70% chance the Blue Jays don’t extend Vladdy.

I'm with you Marc. The best bullpens are always built through development. Having to pony up for relievers at the deadline is rarely a move of value given the number of innings you are trading for. Paying for them in FA often means not spending money elsewhere. Our strategy seems to be claim anyone and everyone on waivers while rarely giving runway to any of our internal options.

I like Chad Green, but he's the 11th most expensive "true" RP in baseball. That is closer money. Romano is just outside the top 20. Quite frankly, we would've been better off trading Green if there was a market for him (we really don't know if other teams would've paid up for that at the deadline) and heading back to FA this off-season.

There's too much uncertainty in bullpens for long commitments. Give me a couple of the older guys who you can get on 1-year deals: Martin, Ottavino, Yates, Hudson, Thielbar, Treinen, Kittredge.

Also...we tend to give away the higher ceiling arms. Which I would understand if we got something out of it. But given it was already a lost season, trading Pearson was weird and I really hoped there was more to it. Is it really worth giving guys like Pop more runway than Pearson?

Zulueta was let go due to roster crunch IIRC. Yeah, his control is rough, but it's still improved and he has great stuff. You give a guy like that a chance.

The Jays have limited prospects for future closers right now. Maybe Dahian Santos.

Our FO tends to wait as long as possible to convert starters to potential ML relievers. Starters have more value, so it makes sense on paper, but it's also putting a lot of mileage on potentially viable arms that could help us today. The fact they kept pushing Palmer and Van Eyk as starters when combining their age plus injury history is just poor philosophy. Dallas would make a good reliever.

At some point, you have to figure out how to make it work. In 2022 they took the draft approach of "let's draft a ton of college relievers hoping to fast track them" and grab Jennings, Fluharty, and Brock in rounds 4-6. Jennings has done well as a starter, but dealt with injuries, and seems to be back in a full-time relief role. Brock is a fascinating arm if he can put it all together, but like Cooke, he's injured. Fluharty, imo, is our next Tim Mayza. But they don't want to put a reliever on the 40-Man any earlier than they have to.

I think they have recognized they need better talent. But they aren't really loading the system with high-risk, high-ceiling arms through the drafts or international scouting. On that note: I expect a lot of changes. There's rumblings that there may be a lot of turnover this year. Popham was just the first domino.

Sorry, lots of rambling from me today.

Wasn’t the current front office’s first-ever transaction to trade away Liam Hendriks (116 career saves, all amassed in his post-Toronto career).

If they plan to contend next year, they need to add a good SP, and not just a guy. Francis and Rodriguez are fine as a 5/6, but not a 4/5.

The way I see it, the club just needs to accept 2025 isn't happening. Both Gausman and Bassitt are entering twilight years. Next year Bassitt is probably a No. 4 on a good team. Gausman will be more of a No. 4, too... I'd just move him to the pen as and hope for more consistent stuff in short stints... but I doubt he goes for that in a walk year. Berrios is a fine No. 3. There's just no stallions left in the stable and no real saviors on the farm.

Hendriks really came into his own as a reliever in 2015 after a few failed attempts at becoming a ML starter. Chavez was the inverse - many failed attempts as a reliever, then came into his own and has two successful years as a starter (though his second half in 2015 was abysmal). At the time, it seemed like they'd hope he'd be a solid #5 starter for only $4.7m.

Chavez was meh, then they dump Chavez for Bolsinger (who was awful for us in 2017), and pick up Scott Feldman, who puts up an 8.40 ERA. Hendriks didn't become a stud until 2019-2022, but even being a solid reliever would've had such a positive impact to that 2016 team.

As far as who made the call on the trade - Atkins was made GM on December 3rd, two weeks after the trade. But yes, it was the first major move in a post-AA world.

There’s a non zero chance that Francis is the team’s best starter in 2025.

Kirk gives away so many ABs by constantly swinging at the first pitch

I wonder if they've told him to be more aggressive on the first pitch. His first pitch swing rate is 30.1% - almost double what it was last year, and 8% higher than 2022.

<re Gausman- I haven't done a deep dive, or watched many games this season, but I think there's aome room for optimism.
His home/ road splits are significant. Figuring that out will be key.
His 2nd half numbers are significantly better - speaks to improved health after injury.

I don't expect him to be 22/23 good, but something in between those and this season wouldn't surprise me.
Can he regain some strikeouts?

Is Liam Hendriks the best reliever Shapiro has had under his control during his Toronto tenure? Too bad Shapiro promptly traded him away for essentially a nil return.

On a different note, how about Spencer Horwitz? The criticism of him over the last couple of years was that he could hit but lacked power. He’s now up to 11 HR in just over 300 PA this year — his first full year in the majors. His current wRC+ is 127 — pretty good for a rookie whom some observers denigrated as a AAAA player earlier this season.

Horwitz has a higher OPS than Pete Alonso. Maybe playing just 1B/DH will allow him to focus more on hitting.

Horwitz has absolutely earned his place (against righties).
He's a perfect platoon bat at a minimum.

Part of why our offense was so bad wasn't just lack of power or speed. The vast majority of the team couldn't put up a 100 OPS+.

Out of qualified hitters, Horwitz is second on our team with 118 OPS+.

Look at Boston. Every regular is either near 100 OPS+ or higher. Of course, they can't play defense.

This is why I see guys like Horwitz, Wagner, and Roden as being valuable. If you can play average defense but hit the ball, take pitches, and get on base, you can be a big part of run creation. There are nowhere near as many huge power 1Bs as there used to be. Horwitz' SLG is still middle of the pack (while being 9th in wRC+). Of course, his SLG would be 7th and wRC+ 5th if he was a 2B.

Addison Barger generated 82.7 MPH bat speed on his 105 MPH batted ball that resulted in an error. A new career high.

That is 100th percentile bat speed (Stanton averages 81 MPH, best in MLB).

For further context: Vladdy's never generated bat speed as fast as Barger's last AB.

— ⁶ (@Atkins2Alcatraz) September 8, 2024

To their credit the FO tried Yates in 2021.

If he works he's probably that missing piece that year.

I wonder if Rodriguez could be cajoled into going retro and being a relief ace that goes closer to two IP per appearance than 1.

I hope what ever team goes retro finds success by going to a 2IP high leverage guy frequently. That said, I wish players could get on board with Closer by committee, which does on the vine in the '00s. Too bad psychology and the salary incentives killed that good idea.

My theory (not worth much) is that Kirk has suffered greatly from the “do damage” approach. He came up working BBs and hitting everything to right center now he’s ultra aggressive and trying to pull everything.

The problem with Kirk was always his ability to make weak contact with 2 strikes resulting in double play ground balls.
It comes back to situational hitting. Less than 2 outs and a runner on third, you don't want a walk.
Runner on first, less than 2 outs, a walk is fine, but not worth the risk.
 

I would be totally OK with just getting Santander (or Soto) to play LF and push Loperfido to 4th outfielder.There's a lot of left bats and I like it.
I wouldn't mind trading Bichette for a top reliever and a catching prospect.

Bullpen is one of the hardest and easiest places to fix. What the Jays miss as others have mentioned is a steady stream of hard throwing guys, a couple of whom develop into long-term pieces. The last legitimate reliever, the Jays developed in house was Romano which is pathetic. I am pro signing a couple of relievers because they are so tradeable at deadline if needed but they also tend to be expensive and Jays are already spending a lot on Green and Romano. What Jays are doing now makes sense to try to find a couple of guys who can be pieces for next year. I think moving Rodriguez to pen makes sense and then sign someone who can be an 8th/9th inning guy and then hope that's enough.

“ I would be totally OK with just getting Santander (or Soto) to play LF and push Loperfido to 4th outfielder.There's a lot of left bats and I like it.
I wouldn't mind trading Bichette for a top reliever and a catching prospect.”

This but add another power bat to LF or DH or 1B if Vlad moves to 3B.

Sign another starter. Bieber was drafted by Shapiro’s FO in Cleveland. He prepped that draft.

Horwitz 2B
Guerrero Jr 1B
Santander LF
O’Neil DH
Springer RF
Varsho CF
Kirk C
Jimenez SS
Clement 3B

Gausman
Berrios
Bassist
Francis
Bieber after return

Springer in RF in 2025 makes me uneasy. The problem, as I see it, is that Schneider will inevitably play him full-time (possibly as the leadoff hitter), even if he continues to decline and is a 0-1 WAR (or worse) player next year.

I acknowledge the points others have made in his favour (xwOBA, defense, BABIP, etc). I guess I just don’t have a lot of overall confidence in almost-36-year-old Springer being a good starting player next year.

The last legitimate reliever, the Jays developed in house was Romano which is pathetic.

They did develop Romano but shouldn't realistically get credit for his breakout.

They let Romano go to Texas in the Rule 5 back when he was still a middling minor league starter.

It's very much like the Edwin Encarnacion breakout when Oakland picked him off waivers beforehand.

The Jays were lucky in both cases that success dropped just as the discarded players returned to the organization and not before.

With Romano, they were lucky the Rangers sent him back, but success didn't just drop. Pete Walker reworked his delivery and only then did Romano find success.

Just looked at a couple of ex-Jays and bullets dodged by not keeping...

• Robbie Ray - many wanted to keep him, 96 ERA+ over 3 years, 223 IP for Seattle/SF, 2 years $50 mil left on his deal. Instead we signed Gausman for almost identical cash/term 116 ERA+ over 522 2/3 IP $46 mil left over 2 years.
• Taijuan Walker - Did very well in 2020, but in the 4 years since has a weak AS appearance (90 ERA+ that year), 91 ERA+ overall, 564 2/3 IP $20 mil for 2, then 4/$18 per. Pretty nice cash for a guy who is a #3 at best.
• Ross Stripling - we all loved him and wanted him to stay, but damn that was a bullet avoided - 2 years ERA+ 76 over 172 2/3 IP for $25 mil.

Geez, Ray for Gausman has to be one of the best deals in recent history (not a deal, but worked out like one), letting Stripling go was very smart, although his replacement, Mitch White, sucked rocks (56 ERA+ over 65 2/3 IP here but cost a LOT less (under $50k this year, minimum before that) if you ignore the lost prospects Moises Brito (7.84 ERA this year, 17 BB in 20 2/3 IP) and Nick Frasso (missing all of 2024 rehabbing from a torn labrum, will be 26 next year and needs a 40 man slot this winter) who was highly rated but has 1 pro game with 6 IP in his career, 8 with 5+ IP - at best he will be a reliever now.

I dont remember Davis Schneider having a big leg kick. He has one today. Am I misremembering?

If the FO can sign a LF, DH and find a 3B and C and bullpen and rotation help and buy out Springers contract (no sense keeping him as a 4th OF with that salary) and stay in budget then sure, put someone else in RF so long as it isn’t a lateral or downward change like Davis Schneider would be.

There’s a lot of other things to do before worrying abound Springer playing RF and batting in the lower 3rd of your line up, at least for me.

Too bad Shapiro promptly traded [Hendriks] away for essentially a nil return.

Wasn't that Tony LaCava? (He gets the credit for signing J.A. Happ, he can wear this one.)

It was Lacava but if you're bemoaning trading a reliever who became good four years after you traded him, meh. If you trade someone and the new team changes something very quickly and they became good, that's a legitimate complaint about the development side of things. If you do what Arizona did and sell very low on Ray after one bad year after a bunch of mostly good ones, you deserve criticism, but a reliever who a few years later finds an extra 1-2 MPH on his fastball and figures things out? You really are going to keep every reliever just in case they can figure something out later?

Looking back can be fun, but I have always found the retroactive obsession with players who went to elsewhere mostly a waste of time. Should they have gone for prospects for Happ? I thought so at the time and still think so but most likely those prospects would have failed as well. Should Jays have traded Tellez for Zobrist in 2015? Almost certainly but maybe another team matches Jays offer and Jays still don't get him. Maybe Royals trade for someone does even better for them?. Maybe Zobrist doesn't fit well in Toronto and struggles? Maybe Zobrist runs into Bautista and ends his career? Should Jays have traded Hendricks? I guess not but does he become an elite pitcher on Jays? Who knows? Imagining an alternate history where only one part changes and everything else stays the same is just not the way it works. Maybe the best organization in baseball, The Dodgers, have made two of the worst trades in the last decade, giving up Yordan Alvarez and O'Neill Cruz for Josh Fields and Tony Watson. The Dodgers still seem to be fine.

Agreed, Springer is a low level worry at this point. He is signed for 2 more years, will probably be a 1-2 WAR player those years with hot streaks where he carries the team, and ice cold ones where he looks done. As long as his playing time slowly reduces the Jays will be fine with that.

LF: Loperfido (L) looks like the first choice, Schneider (R) the 2nd (but dropping), Roden (L) might be an option, Jonatan Clase (S) has done poorly in Buffalo but has high potential so he'll be in the mix, Berroa (S)/Lukes (L) no more than backups most likely.

3B: Clement (R) the incumbent, Barger (L) the hotshot kid, Orelvis Martinez (R) might be in the mix too. Vlad (R) will play about 10 or so games here.

2B: Wagner (L) looking good, Horwitz (L) more a fill-in when needed at 2B, Orelvis Martinez (R) could win it, Schneider (R) there too, Jimenez (R) will be in the mix too.

DH: Horwitz (L) the favorite, with Vlad (R) getting time here instead of 1B/3B. Also time here for Springer (R), Kirk (R), Bo (R) and whoever else needs a semi-day off. Doubt the Jays will sign a full-time DH unless they get a good bargain (last few haven't done well - Turner, Vogelbach, Belt all had issues of some kind - guessing on Belt as the Jays didn't consider him at all this year which seemed odd).

So there are lots of guys in the mix. If platoons then I see it as likely to be LF: Loperfido/Schneider, 3B: Clement/Barger, 2B: Wagner/Jimenez, DH: Horwitz/Kirk (backup catcher plays those days) - so a full 13 man hitting squad of C: Kirk, 1B: Vlad, 2B: Wagner, 3B: Barger, SS: Bo, LF: Loperfido, CF: Varsho, RF: Springer, DH: Horwitz, Bench: Schneider, Clement, Jimenez, backup catcher. Any free agents/trades would obviously shift someone to AAA or to be part of a trade. That leaves guys like Marintez, Roden, Clase, Berroa, Lukes, De Los Santos, etc. in the minors waiting for a shot.

Agreed on the trades and what if's being fun. Robbie Ray vs Gausman wasn't a trade but worked like one - both got the same cash/years with the Jays losing Ray but getting Gausman on pretty much the same day iirc. Gausman has been damn fine 116 ERA+ over 522 2/3 IP, Ray has not been so fine - 96 ERA+ over 223 IP (plus traded for peanuts). Dream deals like McGriff & Collins for 2 meh relievers are rare and getting more so as time goes by. The Kikuchi deal should look WOW for the Jays in a year or two, let alone the 6 they have control over the 3 kids - it isn't at the Smoltz for Alexander level (Tigers did that, they went 11=0 in Alexander starts pre-playoffs, which was the only way they could get in, but Smoltz was a HOF'er for Atlanta) but the potential is there for a Langston for Randy Johnson, Gene Harris, and Brian Holman type result (Johnson was solid for his first 6 years in Seattle but wasn't HOF level until near the end of that time frame after a good talk with Nolan Ryan - around a 115 ERA+, 144 ERA+ after).

Normally it wouldn't be worth dwelling on a past transaction involving a reliever. Hendriks is arguably more notable given how excellent his career has been -- far better than any other reliever the Blue Jays have had under Atkins/Shapiro, unless I'm mistaken.

Hendriks was already very good in 2015 with Toronto. As for factual accuracy, Hendriks's biggest velo jump was with the Blue Jays, when he went from a 92.1 MPH FB (with KC/Tor in 2014) to 95.6 MPH (with Toronto in 2015). He did add some more velocity a few years later, but he has been a very good MLB reliever from 2015 on.

Raise your hands everyone who expected Jesse Chavez to be more useful in 2024 than Liam Hendriks or Jordan Romano.

Y Rodriguez pitched 5 innings 1 ER today. Y Rodriguez 73 IP so far this year. B Francis 84 IP so far this year. Maybe they can stay as SPs.

Hendriks... far better than any other reliever the Blue Jays have had under Atkins/Shapiro, unless I'm mistaken.

I think you're mistaken. Romano has been just as good since coming up to stay.

Career WAR / saves

Hendriks 13.7 / 116

Romano 3.7 / 105

Romano might get somewhere close to that WAR total eventually, but it seems somewhat unlikely given his significant injury issues.

After Shapiro scolded AA in 2015 for his trade moves, I’m sure LaCava (if in fact he was the one who came up with the idea), as interim GM, made sure to get Shapiro’s full approval before making any trades.

In any event, given that the front office jettisoned both Hendriks and Romano, it’s good that they got one of them back.

Honest question: why was Cabrera’s reaction to Atlanta chirping him such a faux pas/ bad character play?

The umpire yelled at him and touched him, and John Schneider in return touched the ump and moved him away from Cabrera. Technically isn’t that a suspension?

I get the “escalating the situation “ part re: Cabrera, but to me that’s no different than yelling, so I honestly don’t get it.

Hendriks better have more WAR than Romano - he made his debut in 2011, Romano in 2019.

Since 2020, when Romano came up to stay, he's got 105 Saves, an ERA+ of 165. Hendriks has 90 Saves and an ERA+ of 162, which doesn't scream "way better" to me.

Hendriks was already very good in 2015 with Toronto. As for factual accuracy, Hendriks's biggest velo jump was with the Blue Jays, when he went from a 92.1 MPH FB (with KC/Tor in 2014) to 95.6 MPH (with Toronto in 2015). He did add some more velocity a few years later, but he has been a very good MLB reliever from 2015 on.

Hendricks declined in 3 straight seasons with Oakland following the trade, he was not "very good" in 2017 or 2018. He then magically turned into the best reliever in the league in 2019 when he put up nearly 4 fWAR. The Jays traded him after one season of any success and a huge velo jump. I'm sure that they were banking on 2015 being an aberration (selling high), and considering that Hendricks was "worse" in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018 their internal prognosis was probably justified. The trade looks horrible in retrospect because Jesse Chavez turned out to be a dud, and Hendricks became elite 4 years after being traded. Relievers are super unpredictable - consider that the Erik Swanson that Seattle traded us was better than any iteration of Hendricks from 2015 to 2018, and yet here we are with Swanson being an unplayable mess for most of this season while we are talking about Hendricks being the big fish that got away.

What? Hendriks had very good numbers in 2016 and 2017. If he “declined” compared to his excellent 2015 season, it wasn’t by much. He had an off year in 2018, but then was outstanding from 2019-2022.

Putting it all together, he’s had a great career. I acknowledge that this was unexpected in his first few seasons when he was throwing 91-92 and striking out relatively few batters, and even in 2015 when it was unclear whether his velo spike would hold up.

ERA+:
2015: 141
2016: 109
2017: 99
2018: 102

bWAR:
2015: 1.0
2016: 0.7
2017: 0.1
2018: 0.2

fWAR:
2015: 1.5
2016: 1.4
2017: 1.0
2018: 0.1

2017 was a clear drop from 2015 regardless of which WAR variant you use. Fangraphs obviously loves him because he is a FIP darling, whereas B-Ref is much less complimentary. He had 4.22 ERA in 2017.

Lets look at Hendriks a bit - when traded he had lots of time pre-free agency, up through 2020. Over that time he was just with Oakland and had 40 saves, 12 blown, 35 holds (77% save conversion, or 86% if you include holds) over 263 IP 237 relief games, 10 starts, 2.4 BB/9 11.4 K/9 - damn fine. Romano has been here from 2019-2024 with 1 year to go pre-free agency. 231 games, all relief 105 saves, 13 blown, 20 holds (89% save conversion, 91% if you include holds), 229 2/3 IP 3.4 BB/9 11.2 K/9. Also damn fine - that is Rivera save conversion level - 89% for the best ever, Henke was at 85% for us old timers comparison).

As closers Romano wins, but for overall contribution one can make a case for Hendriks. Still, given how little was gotten for him (Danny Valencia the first time sent away, then Jesse Chavez (good #'s outside of a horrid 2 HR/9 IP ratio which led to 0 saves, 2 blown saves, 7 holds) the 2nd more infamous one (who was less than 1 year afterwards traded for Mike Bolsinger who royally sucked here then retired). Of course, AA got him the first time off waivers (O's), then from KC for Santiago Nessy (catcher who never got past AA). So basically he was a 'cost nothing, gave a bit' guy who a few clubs gave up on before he became something whose value to the Jays would've been mostly wasted in the dead era (17-19).

So enough about a guy who is long gone from the Jays, currently in the Red Sox minors (6 games 5 shutout innings 2 BB 3 SO 4 H 1 unearned run). His point is how you never know with relievers - they can go from nothing (pre-2015) to solid (2015-16) to meh or worse (2017-2018) to WOW (2019-2022) to nothing (2023-now just 5 IP in the majors). Crazy eh? Bet GM's and managers HATE relievers due to that.

Right now Green, Swanson, Cabrera, Yarborough, and Little are the trusted ones. Pop seems trusted (given his use today) even though his stats don't justify it, Burr & Nance & Frias are there to eat innings when needed. Next year Green-Swanson-Cabrera-Little will probably be here, along with Romano. That leaves 3 slots for others. Despite the good stuff I said about Romano above, given how Green has really hit a wall lately I'd say a solid backup closer is needed (in case Romano isn't back to 100%) - Green & Swanson might be able to cover it short term, but not for 2 or 3 months if needed. If moved to the pen Yariel Rodríguez & Bowden Francis aren't that either (they'd be long men, not closers). Given no one anywhere in the system appears to have 10+ saves outside of Green I think it is safe to say we don't have anyone being developed as a closer. For crazy K's (12+/9 IP) in AA/AAA over 20+ IP we only have Burr, Braydon Fisher (AA/AAA 23 yrs old 5.7 BB/9 13.2 K/9 - got him for Biggio from LA), Dahian Santos (21 yrs old Rk/A/AA 6.1 BB/9 12.2 K/9 4.58 ERA). Fisher gets my curiosity as does Santos in that group but both need maps of the strike zone first. There are a few in lower levels who are interesting but as a rule relievers in low A aren't likely to go anywhere, if they were seen as good they'd be starting.

So I see the Jays chasing 2 solid relievers at up to $10 mil for one, and probably a 'meh' guy for up to $5/6 mil (ala Garcia - that is what he made this year). Heck, they might go for Garcia, given his issues in Seattle (1 blown save, 3 holds, 9 IP 7 H 3 HR 4 BB 7 SO over 10 games) his price has probably come down a bit. We know Richards is going to be hunting for a job after being let go by the Twins (well, sent to AAA - no one took him off waivers so he accepted the assignment).

"Hendriks was so good in 2016 and 2017 that when he struggled to start 2018... the A's DFA'd him. That was at the end of June, and his stock was so low that nobody claimed him. So the A's sent him to AAA. When they brought him back as a September callup *POOF*, he was suddenly a beast."

This is exactly it. I mean, we have enough to complain about about but whinging about losing Hendriks, Joel Payamps, Jason Adam, or whatever is just silly. The Jays have had 121 different pitchers who pitched at least 5 innings in relief with the team since 2015. Relievers get churned and occasionally one you churn becomes good somewhere else. Waguespack is looking good in AAA with Tampa. Could he be good in the majors? Maybe. Does it mean Jays should have held on to him? No.

The problem the Jays have in relief is not misidentifying talent and letting it go, it's very clearly not developing relievers (or starters). Who is the best reliever the Jays developed since Romano? I can't think of anyone. Almost every other team is developing a good reliever every few years. Jays aren't developing any pitching. Not sure if it was mentioned here, but the Jays did let go of their pitching coordinator Cory Popham who was with the team for 6 years. Seems like a start.

IMO, the best reliever the Jays have had since Shapiro took over was probably Osuna but not much to be done there.

What's Travis Bergen up to?

Bergen's been out of baseball for over 2 years.

Horwitz now has a 135 WRC+ which makes him the 27th best hitter in baseball with 300 PAs sandwiched between Tyler O'Neill and Lindor and the 4th best hitting 1Bman behind Vladdy, Harper, and Freeman. That's fantastic Who knows what he will do next year, but he's had enough time and enough ups and downs and the minor league track record for me to think the Jays need to pencil him next year as an everyday 1B/DH with Vladdy (at least vs. RHP). Only questions I see on the team right now going into next year are 2B/3B/LF (and SS depending on what happens with BO).

The good news is that the Jays have excellent internal options for backups and maybe starters. Clement, Wagner, Barger, Orelvis, Roden, Loperfido, Schneider, and Lukes are all legitimate major leageurs I think and some might even be starter quality. The question is how do you parlay excellent depth into higher quality talent. I still like the idea of signing Tylor O'Neill and then mixing 2 of Roden, Loperfido, and Lukes into some VS RHP Abs in LF and RF. 2B/3B with Wagner, Clement, Barger, and Orelvis seems absolutely viable to me.

Shi Davidi has an interview out with Bo Bichette in which Bo says he wants to play with Vladdy forever and win championships together.

What's Travis Bergen up to?

Let's focus on the positive. Like Horwitz being great and not a AAAA "Jackson Pollack" of a player.

That's an interesting piece from a Rogers employee on Bichette in light of all the internet conjecture.

- “When I had time to think about what I want, basically, my ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization,” the two-time all-star shortstop said during an interview at Truist Park before heading out for a rehab assignment with triple-A Buffalo that starts Tuesday. “I'm 100 per cent committed to doing whatever it takes to accomplish those things. That's where I'm at.”

Kyle Tucker was out for 3 months but rejoined the Astros without a rehab assignment, while Bichette goes down to Buffalo to rehab before joining a team out of the hunt. Different strokes for different folks.

What's really impressive to me about Horwitz is that he's doing this well without needing the super high babip he needed in AAA.

there's a couple elements to that - his pure power (.193iso) is much higher than his milb line would have suggested, but also it's because his batting average (.274) is tracking much closer to his babip (.300), than it did in the minors, which also suggests that he's getting better/harder contact on the balls he puts in play in general.

If this power is for real, then he suddenly has a much broader avenue to success than just being a babip king. And it's not even elite power, just solid power.

When looking at a high babip guy in the minors, there's always the question of whether it's a guy that just doesn't have power or whether he's sacrificing power with a contact approach.

He's never been a guy that eye testy scouts thought had untapped raw power, so I never could hold on to that with him as a prosepct, but at least to my eye he sure seems to have the frame to support this kind of power.

We have statcast data for AAA the past 2 seasons and it seems that he's clearly swinging more in the bigs than he did in AAA, and that he's getting a much higher percentage of pitches in the zone than in AAA - this is probably because pitchers don't respect him as much in MLB at this point. So we'll see what happens when they stop throwing him as many strikes. Good news is that patience was always a strength for him in the minors so he probably won't start chasing.

Also good news is that he seems to grade well so far on both hard stuff and offspeed stuff.

And the projections for him are starting to look very good (120wrc+ ish) even though they still don't believe in his power and are projecting it to drop down to the .150iso type range.

All that being said, we've seen enough players have a good 300ish pa and then fall off before to get too overexcited about it I think. I'll just enjoy it without putting any expectations on it quite yet.

"The good news is that the Jays have excellent internal options for backups and maybe starters. Clement, Wagner, Barger, Orelvis, Roden, Loperfido, Schneider, and Lukes are all legitimate major leageurs I think and some might even be starter quality."

We should also think about the fact that to maximize everyone we should be using heavy platooning.

lord please just sign Vlad and Bo.

I think the Jays were working on power with Horwitz since spring and something seemed to click in June. He hit 2 HR's before June in over 200 PAs and since June, he's hit 14 HR's in around 330 PAs. Sure 300+ PAs aren't enough to be 100% sure but Horwitz has so many positive indicators as well as passing the eye test. (great abs, real power, a tough out) I like the fact he struggled in July and bounced back. It shows some ability to adjust.

Bo has negative WAR.  With all the knee issues, speed and range are going to go down.
He's also difficult to slot in a lineup.  If Vlad hits third on a team loaded with left bats, Bo can't hit second or fourth.

I was worried that something was wrong with Horwitx because his bb/k declined and I also believe that HRs especially his are flukes because they used to be rare. D Jansen also started off with good bb/k and the that worsened as he started to hit more HRs by pulling the ball. So it seems that in some cases power can be taught.

It's pretty easy to slot a career 119 OPS+ into the lineup. Not sure why he can't bat ahead of or behind Guerrero (or leadoff and be two spots away).

- “When I had time to think about what I want, basically, my ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization,” the two-time all-star shortstop said during an interview at Truist Park before heading out for a rehab assignment with triple-A Buffalo that starts Tuesday. “I'm 100 per cent committed to doing whatever it takes to accomplish those things. That's where I'm at.”

Standard soon to be FA tripe. Johhny Gaudreau (RIP) was staying stuff like this right up until he left for Columbus

Jeez man.  Since you have NO WAY of knowing that what you assert is true, is in fact true, you just call his statement 'tripe'?
That seems unkind to me.  Give the guy a break. 

Nightengale says Jays may be moving Atkins to a different role.

On one hand, Bo's comments cast a much more favourable light on this organization than most fans opinions.

But at the end of the day, as with just about any player in any sport, it will in all likelihood come down to dollars and years. If he is extended, can't see the deal being considered "team-friendly" by any neutral outside observer.

"Jeez man. Since you have NO WAY of knowing that what you assert is true, is in fact true, you just call his statement 'tripe'?
That seems unkind to me. Give the guy a break."

Perhaps I am too cynical but this is exactly what agents tell their clients to say.

1. It keeps the home fans on their side
2. Doesnt close any doors, especially when your OPS+ is 68
3. Stops the media circus
4. Puts the pressure on management to do the explaining as the deadline looms
5. Makes the player more attractive in a new market as they are not labelled as a malcontent.

I guess we will see. But Bo sure doesnt look happy to be around the club. And it will come down to money, not loyalty in most cases.

It almost always comes down to money. The Jose Ramirezes are very rare. Bo will be back to his old self next year and get a contract north of 200MM.

If Bo doesn't look happy (complete speculation unless you're a body language expert), it's because he's a star hitting .222/.275/.320. He was never part of the barrio.

I couldn't help myself I put Wagner in.


Plausible Best Lineups....


Using This Year Only

* 1. 1B Horwitz 311pa, .300babip, 135wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 2. DH Guerrero 617pa, .341babip, 166wrc+, 5.1war/650
* 3. 2B Wagner 75pa, .379babip, 138wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 4. SS Jimenez 165pa, .311babip, 106wrc+, 1.2war/650
* 5. CF Varsho 503pa, .263babip, 100wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 6. RF Springer 553pa, .244babip, 98wrc+, 1.6war/650
* 7. 3B Clement 384pa, .258babip, 93wrc+, 3.0war/650
* 8. C Kirk 330pa, .263babip, 87wrc+, 4.5war/650
* 9. LF Loperfido 222pa, .344babip, 86wrc+, 1.2war/650

* B. OF Lukes 25pa, .556babip, 239wrc+, 13.0war/650
* B. UT Schneider 401pa, .260babip, 78wrc+, 0.3war/650
* B. UT Barger 177pa, .239babip, 75wrc+, -0.7war/650
* B. IF Bichette 331pa, .266babip, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650
* B. C Severn 65pa, .263babip, 44wrc+, -1.0war/650

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .500babip, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* X. OF Berroa 41pa, .250babip, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650
* X. IF DeLosSantos 15pa, .300babip, 59wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, .296babip, 34wrc+, -1.5war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year

* 1. 1B Horwitz 331pa, .300babip, 129wrc+, 3.5war/650
* 2. DH Guerrero 697pa, .331babip, 163wrc+, 4.8war/650
* 3. 2B Wagner 75pa, .379babip, 138wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 4. SS Jimenez 165pa, .311babip, 106wrc+, 1.2war/650
* 5. CF Varsho 565pa, .258babip, 102wrc+, 4.4war/650
* 6. RF Springer 644pa, .251babip, 98wrc+, 1.6war/650
* 7. 3B Clement 394pa, .257babip, 91wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 8. C Kirk 398pa, .254babip, 87wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 9. LF Loperfido 222pa, .344babip, 86wrc+, 1.2war/650

* B. OF Lukes 25pa, ..526babip, 226wrc+, 10.0war/650
* B. UT Barger 177pa, .239babip, 75wrc+, -0.7war/650
* B. IF Bichette 421pa, .276babip, 74wrc+, 0.8war/650
* B. UT Schneider 456pa, .248babip, 71wrc+, -0.1war/650
* B. C Severn 65pa, .263babip, 44wrc+, -1.0war/650

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .500babip, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* X. OF Berroa 41pa, .250babip, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650
* X. IF DeLosSantos 15pa, .300babip, 59wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, .296babip, 34wrc+, -1.5war/650



Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections

* 1. 1B Horwitz .309babip, 120wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 2. DH Guerrero .303babip, 150wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 3. SS Bichette .316babip, 113wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 4. RF Springer .269babip, 111wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 5. C Kirk .275babip, 110wrc+, 5.4war/650
* 6. CF Varsho .266babip, 104wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 7. 2B Wagner .314babip, 104wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 8. LF Schneider .279babip, 102wrc+, 1.3war/650
* 9. 3B Clement .272babip, 97wrc+, 2.8war/650

* B. OF Lukes .319babip, 105wrc+, 0.0war/650
* B. UT Barger .286babip, 98wrc+, 1.1war/650
* B. IF Jimenez .288babip, 94wrc+, 2.5war/650
* B. OF Loperfido .302babip, 87wrc+, 0.0war/650
* B. C Serven .254babip, 57wrc+, 0.0war/650

* X. IF Martinez .263babip, 92wrc+, 1.5war/650
* X. OF Clase .286babip, 77wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Berroa .292babip, 76wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF DeLosSantos .278babip, 73wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Raposo .257babip, 69wrc+, 0.0war/650

"Perhaps I am too cynical"

Biggest Understatement of all 2024 Batters Box posted comments... lol