The band is back together again

Springer
Varsho
Vlad
Horwitz DH
Wagner 2B
Kirk
Barger 3B
Clement SS
Loperfido LF

Can't wait to see what the August pitcher of the month does in September.

With that dinger i believe Barger finally passes both Loperfido and Schneider in wrc+, even after his horrendous start.

He posted a 7wrc+ in 66pa in his first call up

Coming into tonight he had a 121wrc+ over 102pa in his 2nd callup.

Starting to look like someone we can dream a little on again. The tools are obvious enough.

Pop and Swanson have no idea where it's going.

14 hits and 6 walks given up to date. Crazy game to be line to win

:(

Picked a good night to see a lot of baseball in one game, I guess. The Jays utter lack of swing and miss stuff is almost comical. Phillies fouling off everything with 2 strikes, just amazing after a while.

Ah well. Better for draft position. More clarity on team needs.

For the last few months Green's results were better than his stuff. The last two games are reversion to the mean.

Leo!

Jimenez and Barger have been huge bright spots recently. It appears neither one is above Clement on the playing time depth chart, so who knows how much longer either one will play once Bo comes back, but good to see them performing well after slow starts.

Somewhat surprised they actually pitched to Schwarber, unless they were thinking "there's no way he'll hit three of them, right?" But when you're 67-72 you don't worry about it so much.

Vladdy moves past Ohtani into 4th with a 171wrc+. Next up is Witt at 173. Soto in 2nd has been coming back down to earth a bit and is at a reachable 180.

Top-5 wRC+ seasons in club history:

* 1. Bautista '11: 180
* 2. Olerud '93: 179
* 2. Delgado '00: 179
* 4. Guerrero '24: 171 --> in progress
* 5. Guerrero '21: 166

Bo Bichette 80GP 222/275/320 69 OPS+
Leo Jimenez 46 GP 239/333/403 109 OPS+

Probably not enough games to rely on any defensive metrics for Leo, but my sense is he is better defensively. He is clearly the better player offensively this year. Shockingly, its not close.

Bo has been much better than either of those lines before this year. But will we ever see that Bo again? I have not seen any explanation for his fall down the elevator shaft.

Yes, we will see that Bo again. Players don't fall off a cliff at 26, absent injuries.

In the Battle for Mediocrity (i.e. which of the AAAA guys could be league average (ish)/ 2.0 WAR players), there's a clear split developing - Horwitz, Clement and Jimenez in one camp and Barger, Loperfido, Schneider, Berroa in the other. Wagner TBD but trending up. I expect that split to continue notwithstanding Barger's recent hot streak. I think Schneider the manager is actually doing an excellent job getting all of them some ABs and mixing and matching. All of Horwitz, Clement and Jimenez would be valuable players next year on league minimum deals if this is who they are as players.

He was playing hurt. 92-93 is right: batters don’t typically get the yips.

I'd hesitate to parse "streaks" when samples are this small, Nigel. Barger's "hot streak" is longer than some players' total samples, not to mention being younger than everyone other than Leo.

Stats since Barger's last callup in Jul25:

* Guerrero (25): 160pa, .414babip, 249wrc+
* Wagner (25): 61pa, .388babip, 165wrc+
* Barger (24): 105pa, .254babip, 128wrc+
* Jimenez (23): 111pa, .333babip, 128wrc+
* Varsho (27): 139pa, .276babip, 126wrc+
* Kirk (25): 115pa, .302babip, 124wrc+
* Clement (28): 151pa, .274babip, 105wrc+
* Horwitz (26): 154pa, .238babip, 99wrc+
* Springer (34): 145pa, .228babip, 88wrc+
* Loperfido (25): 102pa, .287babip, 62wrc+
* Serven (30): 41pa, .280babip, 57wrc+
* Schneider (25): 78pa, .176babip, -1wrc+

now I wouldn't ignore Barger's utterly useles 1st 66pa callup completely, but at the same time i'm not sure i'd hold it against him too much in comparison with other small-sample guys, most of whom are older than him.

"He was playing hurt. 92-93 is right: batters don’t typically get the yips."

He has had the calf thing recently. Whats the story for the first 60-65 games?

Bo gets hurt a lot.
OPS by month:
July .370
June .529
May .731
April .577
September 23 .718
August 23 .629
July 23 .849
June 23 .735

His career OPS is almost .800 but he hasn't hit at that level in a long time. 
Would you bet over or under .800 next year?
It was .814 in 23 and .802 in 22.
There's a question of timing and a question of discipline as the league seem to have figured out that he will chase.
He only walked 27 times in 23.

Schneider has been doing an excellent job doling out playing time, despite the complaints in here.

I think Barger is firmly in the first camp, Nigel. He clearly has the loudest tools of the bunch, and he has hit .245/.286/.541 since the break. They desperately need the pop in the lineup. It's easy to see a scenario where the Jays only sign/trade for one big bat, leaving room for Barger, Clement, Horwitz, Jimenez, Loperfido, and Schneider/Wagner on the roster. The rest of the focus would be on improving the pitching staff.

Barger clearly has the most ISO and that is definitely something that the team needs. However, his strike zone control is a major problem. Now, his minor league numbers give some hope on that front. I'm also not sure that he has a defensive position that he can play. Barger is going to have to hit a ton to be a league average player (possible but questionable). I get that both Barger and Loperfido have significant positive attributes and could turn into something. Frankly, the offensive bar for Loperfido is quite a bit lower than for Barger given what Loperfido can provide in the field and on the base paths.

I will say that the positional scarcity, and therefore value, of LHH 3B (and C's) does give Barger a leg up.

* 1. Bautista '11: 180

For a second there, I thought "Tony Batista holds the Jays single season wRC+ record?"

Alas, Tony topped out at 118 in his partial '99 season after coming over from Arizona.

I think it's likely that Barger ends the year with a significantly better line than a guy like Loperfido has, while being a year younger, and having a more promising milb track record.

I get that Loperfido may have more defensive upside (tho i don't know that he's actually a plus fielder tbh).

Projections see them like this in the nearterm future:

* Horwitz (26) 116wrc+
* Lukes (30) 104
* Wagner (25) 104
* Roden (24) 104
* Schneider (25) 103
* Barger (24) 99
* Clement (28) 98
* Jimenez (23) 95
* Loperfido (25) 85
* Berroa (25) 75


with imo Barger and moreso Leo getting bonus points for being younger than the rest.

No matter which way I look at Loperfido i can't see any real upside there tbh. And Berroa is an afterthought really.

Schneider is a tough one because despite his horrific recent performance his overall mlb numbers are still good and his milb track record is excellent. So the projections are still gonna like him even though maybe we can see that it's only a matter of time before the projections give up on him too.

I can understand dropping Schneider down into the Loperfido box, but i don't think there's a reason to drop Barger down there yet.

All fair uo - although at this stage I don't think age differences matter that much. I don't think Loperfido is a plus fielder either but, subjectively, he looks like an above average fielder in the corners and maybe average in CF. Barger has looked below average (but playable) everywhere except for his arm strength. Given the rest of the roster and the rest of the system, Barger turning into a league average player would be a huge development for this club - there's no doubt about that.

I think Barger could be a good defensive 3B.

Here is how much he played 3B since being drafted. He has played mostly SS

Age 18 - 9 games
19 - 4 games
20 - did not play
21 - 13 games
22 - 42 games
23 - 20 games
24 (this yr - AAA) 20 games
24 MLB - 18 starts/ 24 games

If they would just let him settle in a 3B, he could be just fine.

Loperfido has upside; but at this point I think it's just as likely he ends up being like another Pennsylvania-born 6'3" lefty Astros LF with power-speed upside.

Barger has been a "prospect" for the last couple of years. You might be right that they just haven't let him settle in at 3B - the other, more likely, explanation is that they didn't view him as being very good there. Its not like he was "blocked" from playing 3B by another, better prospect. They could, of course, have been wrong about that assessment but still.

I just want someone playing 3B who doesn't seem to struggle with the (very long) throw, and Barger seems to have plenty of arm. Goes for SS too - Bichette seems to be right at his limit on throws from there, it's rough. Especially since the 1B defense is generally  not good and probably not getting better.
Yikes on today's start, maybe just stop pitching to Schwarber with mediocre high heat now.

The Jays have continued to play Barger at SS in the minors, including this year, which doesn't make much sense if they view him as being awful at 3B. I think the outfield reps are more a function of the Jays pursuing versatility, combined with the organizational weakness in the outfield.

I do think age differences still matter when we're talking the differences between a 23 or 24 or 25yr old. After that not much difference.

Barger was a legit elite prospect after his age 22 season. And then had an age 23 season which made him look like a complete non prospect, at an age where a good prospect would have been doing well at AAA.

Now at age 24 he's had a solid bounceback at AAA (though still not an elite type performance), and while he struggled to start in MLB, since his last callup he's been hitting at that exciting level again.

If he continues to finish this year strong, then you're looking at a young player with very high upside who just had one very bad year last year. (and iirc he had a serious injury issue that one year too).

Of course, if he finishes the year poorly, and then can't clearly establish himself next year at 25, then yeah move him from the prospect pile to the suspect pile with the Loperfidos and Schneiders.....i.e. the pile of guys who imo have to earn every single bit of playing time with elite AAA performance and/or credible MLB performance.

I was down on Barger bigtime last year, and tentative even about his AAA bounceback this year, and then close to giving up on him when he looked absolutely clueless in his first callup......but he's starting to look consistently and effortlessly good at the plate at this point, and if that continues at all (even if he cools off a bit) it's hard for me not to get excited about him again, even if he's a year behind the curve i hoped for.

Quality start for Francis against Philadelphia. Nice.

So whats needed for next year with the bats?

What they have so far:

C Kirk
1B Vlad
2B Wagner
SS Jimenez (or Bo)
3B Barger
CF Varsho
RF Springer
LF ?
DH Horwitz

Bench Clement, Lukes,


So need a LF with power, a catcher, and another IKF type for supersub/ RH 2B.

If they keep Bo then send down Jimenez for regular at bats. he is too young to rot on the bench. Schneider will need to regroup in AAA for a few months too. Loperfido and Roden on the horizon.

Wont be all sexy like going after Soto but thats a pipe dream. Focus should be on LF bopper.

imo just get the biggest bat possible. position doesn't matter too much because we have pretty good positional coverage all around i think.

* CF Varsho 28 ----- Clase 23
* RF Springer 35 --- Loferpido 26
* LF Lukes 30 ------ Roden 25
* 3B Clement 29 ---- McAdoo 23
* SS Bichette 27 --- Martinez 23
* 2B Jimenez 24 ---- Wagner 26
* 1B Guerrero 26 --- Barger 25
* DH Horwitz 27 ---- Schneider 26
* C Kirk -----------

Would be nice to add another good C tho.

Nate Pearson was part of the Cubs no-hitter tonight.

Nice for Nate, but remember, Aaron Sanchez was the starter in a no-no in 2019 in his first start after being dumped in a deadline deal and after that had a 7.11 ERA the rest of that season, followed by a 76 ERA+ over 95 IP the rest of his career (last seen in Buffalo with a 7.92 ERA over 61 IP). One game does not define a career.

imo just get the biggest bat possible. position doesn't matter too much because we have pretty good positional coverage all around i think.
1B - move Vlad to 3B full time? Not worth the risk.
2B - could do, but there's a pile of prospects & suspects on hand who are best suited to 2B.
SS - only if trading Bo. Which only becomes a realistic option if he finishes out 2024 healthy & productive.
CF - severely reduces Varsho's value to the club.

Has anyone notice that Nate Pearson has dropped his walk rate from 3.8/9IP with the Jays this season (in 40IP) to 1.1/9IP with the Cubs. He has also dropped his K/9 from 11.5 to 8.3 but the K/BB ratio is way up from 3 to 7.5. More efficient too going from 17.93 P/IP to 11.76. Yeah, only 16.1 IP with the Cubbies but interesting.

C - Have the bit bat DH and share time with Kirk.
1B - Vlad only need to play 3B twice a week if he and the other 1B DH twice a week.
2B - Nobody's really blocked if they find a guy worth 7 WAR to play here, but Wagner and Horwitz are good bats already.
SS - Only if trading Bo. Returns doesn't really matter if the new guy is better than Bo on both side of the ball.
CF - This is the only spot where it doesn't make sense. Varsho is an average bat with elite glove. A bit bat would have to play left or right field.

The position guys we traded were KK, Turner, IKF and Jansen.

A new catcher is needed. Serven has a .526 OPS.
An outfielder is needed to replace KK, but not a CF. Loperfido has a .595 OPS and Schneider is at .627. Ultimately, the outfield prospects can fight for Springer's spots once he's gone.
DH is open, but they could rotate DH.
IKF was a good signing, with a .758 OPS. Clement is at .701. Jimenez is at .721. Barger is up to .657. 2 of the 3 are out of options. Some sort of platoon could be nice if Barger keeps rising.

Baltimore just jumped in front of NYY for the division lead as Clay Holmes blew his 11th save.It's not all good with the Orioles neither as Corbin Burnes hasn't been great since June and Eflin now looks like the ace of the staff.

Clement (1.7) and IKF (1.8) have posted almost identical WAR totals this year, and Clement has done so in fewer PA.

However, Clement is a far less expensive player. So he has been much better value than IKF in 2024.

Also, for those who thought IKF would be just as valuable as Chapman, Chapman has amassed an impressive 4.5 WAR this year.

Per MLBTR:

“The Giants made a major splash overnight, announcing that they’ve extended the contract of third baseman Matt Chapman. The deal guarantees Chapman $151MM over six years and runs from 2025 to 2030, with a $25MM annual salary and a $1MM signing bonus paid out in 2025. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Chapman’s deal contains a no-trade clause.”

Chapman gets a 6 year deal for his age 32-37 years. Bregman is a year younger so Boras will likely look for a 7 year deal (minimum) with him. The Jays have an obvious hole at 3B but hopefully they either look internal or elsewhere.

I tend to agree with others in that the Jays are better off getting one big bat and going internal everywhere else. Their only chance at avoiding a prolonged rebuild is to develop talent internally. The bright side to not competing this season has been the development/playing time given to younger players who are looking like potential pieces for next season and beyond (Francis, Barger, Jimenez, Wagner, etc). Piece together 2B and 3B with some combination of Wagner, Barger, Jimenez, Clement, and Martinez, put Horwitz at DH/1B, and spend money on a LF with power who can hit behind Vlad. Pitching is a bigger organizational question mark so the team might be better off spending big there and more conservatively on the position player end.

"imo just get the biggest bat possible. position doesn't matter too much because we have pretty good positional coverage all around i think."

Absolutely. Jays have excellent flexibility so can add at one or more of 2B/3B/LF/DH pretty easily. Only position they absolutely need is a backup/1B catcher. Jansen, Higashioka, Kelly are all fine as free agents but I also think this is a place where Jays can make a trade.

Easiest place I see to upgrade is LF. The guy I like is O'Neill. Santander would be great too but I think this is almost certainly his career year and O'Neill still has the same WRC+. The key is to not get more depth guys. Jays have enough. They need one or two 3+ WAR guys who can make a difference.

Get a big bat, get another quality arm for the rotation, cobble together a decent bullpen (without spending a ton on the latter).

Wow, $151 mil over 6 years ($25 per plus $1 mil bonus) for Chapman? For his age 32-37 seasons? Yeah, that'll look really bad by mid-way imo. ZIPs had him as a 3.7 this year (actual 4.5 so far), then dropping to 3.0 and 2.4 the next 2 years. Lets be kind and use 4.5 as the start point, that leads to 3.8 next, 3.2 in 2026, and in the 2's after that. Generally the aging curve isn't kind though from age 32 and beyond. If you put a $9 mil per WAR value on him they are trying to buy 16.8 WAR but odds are 7 the next 2 years (nice but optimistic) and hoping for 9+ more the next 4? Maybe, but betting on it is a poor bet. If you go with $10 mil per WAR then you are after 15, so 8 in the last 4 years of that deal - more possible but again, I wouldn't be surprised if he is below that. Any decline in defense could cut his value drastically, his speed this year is way up (3.2 baserunning runs, his highest since age 25). Yeah, after his 'wow' April last year and 'dud' May-October I was OK with this size of deal for age 31-35, but a year older (even if it is a great year) ... nah.

As to the Jays I doubt this strongly influences Vlad's value as he was never going to accept less than double that amount pre-free agency. It will affect what other 3B demand (such as Alex Bregman who will demand more, a year younger and more established at the 4-5 fWAR level despite a poor April this year). This winter will be interesting to see who goes where and for how much. With each passing day it becomes more and more important to sign Vlad early and to be ready for crazy figures to come out for guys like Soto, Bregman and any other free agents the Jays are looking at (starters Corbin Burns, Roki Sasaki from Japan, Max Fried, etc., or another hitter like Santander, Bellinger, Walker, Alonzo, Kim, etc.) I'm guessing they try on Soto and fail, get Vlad to sign but for more than they wanted to pay, do a lot of door knocking on others but hold off on any big deals until January when some guys start to come down in price as suitors start to vanish unless someone signs a lower than expected deal or is paid more than we think they are worth (but the Jays like them ala IKF last winter). Ryu was Dec 27, Springer Jan 23, Semien Jan 30, Gausman Dec 1, Kikuchi March 14 (lockout winter), Bassitt Dec 16, Kiermaier a Dec sign both times, IKF Dec 29, Turner Jan 30. So normally the big signing is in December, but late January/beyond isn't odd for this crew. Basically they have their #1 target and if they get him they'll pay and do it quick. If they can't get their top target they keep fishing and grab in January or beyond. Sasaki is very unlikely as he will be limited to the IFA cap due to his age thus will go not for money but opportunity and location (west coast). Santander is damn tempting to chase, I see Kim as a backup choice due to strong D weak O - something the Jays always go for but gotta feel it is time for strong O weak D by now. Bregman looks like the ideal signing but I would be surprised if the Jays pony up what he'll demand (I expect $200 mil over 6 due to strong D/strong O/Houston trying to hold him, an upgrade on Chapman basically).

Catcher will be tough this winter outside of a trade - top ones appear to be Danny Jansen and Elías Diaz (87 OPS+ this year, 82 lifetime, one would think high end defense but stats don't show it - good thrower, meh blocking, poor framing). If Jansen comes back we're fine but otherwise it'll be hard to get a quality backup for Kirk.

"There's positional coverage, sure, but there are problems with bringing in a big bat for several positions."

2 things there Jonny -

* 1. I don't think moving guys down the positional spectrum or in the DH spot is a bad thing, whether that's the guy coming in that moves down or a current jay that he pushes down to a less defensive position.

* 2. it's actually a good thing that we don't have to pay the defensive premium for a CF, SS, or C, and can just focus on landing the best possible bat, even if it's just a DH or LF.

Good for Chapman. Bet on himself and it worked out handsomely.

Apparently the jays offered him $120 over 6yrs. Instead he ends up getting about $170 over 7yrs. Not bad.

It's funny after we've made all these "seller / rebuild" trades that we might actually now be in a position to make a significant "buyer" trade or two instead of just using the FA market.

What can we get on the trade market by packaging 2-4 of our younger guys?

* Orelvis
* Clase
* McAdoo
* Jimenez
* Barger
* Wagner
* Schneider
* Loperfido
* Horwitz

That’s the kind of trade every one wants to make, in real baseball and in fantasy baseball. It’s very rare to find a taker.

The A’s have done it a couple times (Cheers, Mr. Chapman), and they do have Brent Rooker. Would they go for it? Can Rooker keep it going for a couple more seasons in spite of his massive K rate?

As Jonny says, those trades are very hard to pull off and for the guys already in Toronto, much as I like a couple of those names, they don't have a ton of trade value as all are longshots to be above average players. I do agree that one thing they have going for them is that they could fit a "bat only" type into this line-up more easily than most teams.

Wait those are all legit interesting names i didn't include nobodies and some are legit high end top 100 type talents.

I mean you can be super down on Schneider if you like, but he's still a 25yr old with a career 536pa, 106wrc+, 2.7war/650pa line, which is still backed up with a 138wrc+ in AAA at 23/24 and a 131wrc+ in AA at 23, all with good underlying numbers.

And I imagine most here think he's the least valuable name on that list.

For trades 2 of Orelvis, Barger who are ML ready then McAdoo and Schreck who are doing well for 2023 draft picks. The trade is with Miami who have a lot of pitchers in the Majors who not doing so well like E Cabrera, J Luzardo, B Garrett and Sixto Sanchez. I don't know if we are giving up too much or not.

The pickings are slim in the LF FA pool. If you're looking for a bat it's basically Teoscar, O'Neill, and Profar, or moving Santander over.

If they aren't interested in Alonso, they are probably best off spending their available money on pitching (Burnes/Bieber/Fried) and signing one or two of their lesser bats that will be available on a 1-year deal. Somebody like JD Martinez.

The most likely trade involving the AAAA guys is for some similar talent on the pitching side. A rehash of the Tellez trade.

"I mean you can be super down on Schneider if you like, but he's still a 25yr old with a career 536pa, 106wrc+, 2.7war/650pa line, which is still backed up with a 138wrc+ in AAA at 23/24 and a 131wrc+ in AA at 23, all with good underlying numbers"

I'll be down on him. His 81 wrc+ this year in 117 games is more meaningful than the 176 wrc+ he put up in 35 games last year. Especially as most of his excellence last year came early on before pitchers figured him out.

He is not a good athlete, doesnt have a projectable build or play great D, and does not have draft pedigree.

All of these things, plus the more recent stats matter to other GM's. They have all been burned by flash in the pan players.

I think the only hope for him is to go down to AAA for three months and prove he has figured something out

Let's take a quick look at Tellez....

At the time of the trade tellez was a DH with a 62wrc+ in 151pa (though a 173wrc+ in 55pa in AAA that year), and career numbers looking like:

DH Tellez (26)

* MLB (23-26): 760pa, 98wrc+, -0.2war/650pa
* AAA (22-26): 1109pa, 106wrc+

I'd say all the youngish assets i listed there are more valuable than that.

Clase, McAdoo, Wagner and Loperfido were just traded in arms length transactions for non-elite expiring contract players. On what basis could you now suddenly say that their value is way higher than that? That isn't a reasonable interpretation of their market value. They have value but you have to temper that with what the market has actually just valued them at. I agree that Horwitz and Jimenez have value but they both project, at best, to be league average players (and I say that as probably the biggest proponent of Jimenez on the board - I was calling him the team's top prospect all year). So, I agree that Horwitz and Jimenez could be traded for something interesting but there really aren't many teams that would look to move a high end piece for two interesting but non elite young players.

Moving guys down the positional spectrum can be nice for the team if it results in a better team overall (Springer to RF landed there, in some respects moving Varsho to LF helped create an insanely good defensive OF but wasted some of his top skills by putting him in a position which didn't maximize his value). A pure bat for DH/LF could work but removes other flexibility (Kirk as DH, Vlad/Springer DH days 'off', etc.)

The other question is who is available? Alonzo is someone many are hot and heavy for due to his 131 wRC+ lifetime, 120+ every year (literally) but... his defense is poor. A DH/1B who is useful but hardly a $30+ mil player which is what he'll be asking for. Christian Walker is also there with a 112 wRC+ lifetime/122-119-121 past 3 years, but entering age 34 season but solid defense at 1B so tempting on a short term deal. Santander is a 113 wRC+ lifetime, but the past 3 years has been 122-119-132 and has played a lot in RF and a bit in LF with 156 innings in CF in 2019 and a bit at 1B in 2023. That fits the Jays goals of flexibility and has a solid bat, a touch less than Alonzo (on long-term track record) but also will probably be getting less. Bellinger will ask for an arm and leg despite being very inconsistent and just a 107 wRC+ this year after his 135 last year - if his price comes down to earth ($20 mil or less) he is worth digging into, but I doubt that'll happen. Tyler O'Neill carries the biggest range (past 4 years wRC+: 143-99-96-133) with the most defensive value (+24 DRS in LF lifetime, never negative there, -2 in CF over 303 innnings, +3 in RF in 432 innings) plus being a Canadian (BC) never hurts.

I'd probably chase Santander first, then O'Neill (3 year deal max) with an eye on Alonzo and Bellinger's markets but doubt either would fit in the end. There isn't an Ohtani type hitter this winter outside of Soto of course. Now there is the dream, plus he and Vlad appear to be friends (they go to each others places for parties in the winter based on what I've read, but that is from 2021). Sigh... I keep hope due to the Jays signing the impossible in 1997 in Roger Clemens in his prime (2 pitchers triple crowns while here) thus knowing crazy things can happen.

Nah, in my mind the big issue is 3B where there is 1 really good option in Alex Bregman (135 wRC+ lifetime, 117 this year plus very good defense) and others with issues (Kim who is mostly a SS but amazing on defense anywhere with a 100 wRC+ bat). Sadly I expect the Jays will be going into 2025 hoping that Barger is for real with Clement as the backup/platoon. Orelvis Martinez might get mixed in but I expect him to share 2B with Wagner while Schneider fights to make the roster (especially if a solid LF/DH is signed).

That's fine Ducey. I won't argue with that take.

But I think fans have much more recency bias than front offices do. And Schneider has had rock solid numbers all the way through his minor league career and still has a nice overall line in his first 500pa in mlb. And it's not even a full year of struggles for him - remember he had a 134wrc+ through the first 2 months of the season this year too.

We're talking about only ~200pa of horrific struggles after a consistently excellent milb career and a scorching hot first 300pa+ start to his career.

Not saying he's not toast, but I don't know that GMs in general would think he's worthless tbh.

"Easiest place I see to upgrade is LF. The guy I like is O'Neill. Santander would be great too but I think this is almost certainly his career year and O'Neill still has the same WRC+."

This is exactly where my head is at. This team is well set-up to be creative in how it upgrades. O'Neill will want to be an everyday player, though he is made of glass and is a Boras client, but he turns into Aaron Judge against lefties and pairs perfectly with the plethora of young lefty LF options we have at our disposal. Have him play the field against lefties, and put him in a DH rotation against righties.

Even with someone like Santander, he's a RF, and a poor one at that. So you're paying a lot of money for a player who will primarily be a DH. As much as I don't think Belt/Turner types are the way to go, I also don't want to sign long-term DHs in a career year. At that point, we might as well just sign Teoscar, who has a similar offensive profile, but with more speed, equally bad defense, and a winning smile.

A 3B upgrade, at least without a trade, feels out of reach unless we go after Bregman, which is very risky. A Clement/Barger platoon is perfectly serviceable as long as we upgrade elsewhere.

Given the Jays strategy of the past couple of years though, it feels more likely we'll end up with Goldschmidt or J.D. Martinez.

"Clase, McAdoo, Wagner and Loperfido were just traded in arms length transactions for non-elite expiring contract players. On what basis could you now suddenly say that their value is way higher than that? That isn't a reasonable interpretation of their market value."

weird take.

Yes, they were just all traded for good top of the market players at the deadline.

On what basis could you now suddenly say they're worthless fodder?

I would not call Teoscar, O'Neill, Profar and Santander slim pickings for a single position. They are all probably top-20 free agent targets, and all but O'Neill should finish this season above 3 WAR.

"Orelvis Martinez might get mixed in but I expect him to share 2B with Wagner while Schneider fights to make the roster (especially if a solid LF/DH is signed)."

I can't imagine Orelvis breaks camp in a season where we plan to be competitive, because he needs to play every day and will be a liability right now. The power is tantalizing but his whiff rate on breaking balls and off-speed was close to 50% in the minors, let alone the fact his OPS against righties was .802. He's too young for a platoon, so it makes sense to stick him in AAA again and keep working at it.

If Schneider turns it around - and with his work ethic it's certainly possible - then he's a good option there. But if you're keeping Bichette, I'd just put Jimenez in that 2B platoon.

Plausible Best Lineups....

Using this year's stats only:

* 1B Horwitz 303pa, .350obp, 120wrc+, 2.8war/650
* DH Guerrero 603pa, .400obp, 170wrc+, 5.3war/650
* SS Jimenez 159pa, .327obp, 108wrc+, 2.0war/650
* CF Varsho 493pa, .297obp, 102wrc+, 4.4war/650
* RF Springer 542pa, .303obp, 96wrc+, 1.6war/650
* 3B Clement 370pa, .283obp, 95wrc+, 3.0war/650
* C Kirk 316pa, .313obp, 89wrc+, 4.5war/650
* LF Barger 171pa, 82wrc+, 0.0war/650
* 2B Schneider 395pa, .289obp, 81wrc+, 0.5war/650

* UT Wagner 66pa, .348babip, 144wrc+, 5.9war/650
* OF Loperfido 213pa, .269babip, 78wrc+, 0.3war/650
* IF Bichette 331pa, .275babip, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650
* C Serven 60pa, .267obp, 55wrc+, 0.0war/650

* OF Lukes 14pa, .571obp, 262wrc+, 13.9war/650
* IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* OF Berroa 41pa, .317obp, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650
* IF DeLosSantos 12pa, .250obp, 50wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Clase 43pa, .233obp, 34wrc+, -1.5war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats....

* 1B Horwitz 326pa, .340obp, 113wrc+, 2.2war/650
* DH Guerrero 696pa, .392obp, 163wrc+, 4.8war/650
* SS Jimenez 159pa, .327obp, 108wrc+, 2.0war/650
* CF Varsho 561pa, .293obp, 102wrc+, 4.3war/650
* RF Springer 647pa, .302obp, 96wrc+, 1.4war/650
* C Kirk 393pa, .318obp, 92wrc+, 4.5war/650
* 3B Clement 386pa, .281obp, 92wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 2B Schneider 463pa, .289obp, 82wrc+, 0.7war/650
* LF Barger 171pa, .247obp, 82wrc+, 0.0war/650

* IF Wagner 66pa, .348babip, 144wrc+, 5.9war/650
* OF Loperfido 214pa, .269babip, 78wrc+, 0.3war/650
* IF Bichette 426pa, .284babip, 75wrc+, 0.8war/650
* C Serven 60pa, .267obp, 55wrc+, 0.0war/650

* OF Lukes 15pa, .533obp, 238wrc+, 13.0war/650
* IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* OF Berroa 41pa, .317obp, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650
* IF DeLosSantos 12pa, .250obp, 50wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Clase 43pa, .233obp, 34wrc+, -1.5war/650


Taking all of my strength not to stick Wagner up in the starting lineup. But the small sample and somewhat high babip stop me for now.



Using Fangraphs combined Rest of Season projections...


* 1B Horwitz .352obp, 116wrc+, 2.2war/650
* DH Guerrero .372obp, 151wrc+, 4.4war/650
* SS Bichette .320obp, 113wrc+, 3.4war/650
* C Kirk .341obp, 111wrc+, 5.8war/650
* RF Springer .320obp, 110wrc+, 2.3war/650
* CF Varsho .299obp, 105wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 2B Wagner .328obp, 104wrc+, 2.3war/650
* LF Schneider .317obp, 103wrc+, 2.3war/650
* 3B Barger .302obp, 99wrc+, 2.0war/650

* IF Clement .302obp, 98wrc+, 2.4war/650
* IF Jimenez .320obp, 95wrc+, 2.2war/650
* OF Loperfido .287obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war/650
* C Serven .253obp, 58wrc+, 0.0war/650

* OF Roden .334obp, 105wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Lukes .327obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war/650
* IF Martinez .285obp, 93wrc+, 3.0war/650
* OF Clase .279obp, 77wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Berroa .289obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war/650
* IF DeLosSantos .276obp, 73wrc+, 0.0war/650
* C Raposo .265obp, 68wrc+, 0.0war/650

I think we are missing each other uo because I think we value the outgoing assets from the Jays differently. For example, McAdoo was traded for IKF. I don't view IKF with a year and a bit left on his deal as much of an "asset" at the time of the trade. That's a player and contract that would be freely available as a FA in the offseason (i.e. IKF wasn't on a "value contract"). The Jays had to retain salary in that deal. In my view, McAdoo was traded very recently for "not much" and I think the salary retention tells us that. Loperfido and Wagner were part of (and probably the least valuable parts of) a trade for 10-12 starts of a mid rotation starter etc. Your mileage may vary on what went out the door which is fair enough.

Review of Schneider's career:

* R (18-20): 521pa, 13.8b%, 23.4k%, .323bip, .258avg, .175iso, 122wrc+
* A+ (22-23): 368pa, 14.9b%, 29.6k%, .291bip, .230avg, .237iso, 122wrc+
* AA (23-23): 190pa, 11.6b%, 24.2k%, .357bip, .283avg, .193iso, 131wrc+
* AAA (23-24): 467pa, 18.5b%, 22.8k%, .311bip, .268avg, .255iso, 139wrc+
* MLB (24-25): 536pa, 11.9b%, 31.0k%, .289bip, .216avg, .190iso, 106wrc+
* Projections: 57pa, 11.8b%, 28.8k%, .281bip, .216avg, .171iso, 103wrc+

Despite the insanely wonky way he's gotten there so far, Schneider's MLB line is kinda right in line with what you would have expected in his first year of mlb pa based on his very consistent milb performance.

But man is it wonky:

* First 4 months: 322pa, 13.7b%, 28.3k%, .329bip, .258avg, .270iso, 152wrc+
* Last 4 months: 214pa, 9.3b%, 35.0k%, .233bip, .156avg, .078iso, 36wrc+

I get why many have given up on him but I'm not quite there myself, and I'm not sure GMs in general are either.

Not that the board's consensus weighs for much:), but I thought that the general view here and elsewhere was that the Jays had had a very good trade deadline by acquiring some interesting prospects in return for not much. That was certainly my view. I really liked the IKF deal. Maybe I'm wrong in that and people think that we traded hugely valuable assets at the deadline. That's entirely possible:)

Nigel, i'm not sure there's any evidence that there's significantly different trade value for a player in the final year of his deal between the offseason and the trade deadline. I'm pretty sure Kikuchi gets similar values= at either junction.

Falefa literally had some of the best stats of any available hitter at the deadline, and is a plus defender, and had an affordable extra year.

Likewise Yimi was one of the best performing relievers.

These were among the better available players at the deadline, and the deadline sure seemed like a sellers' market...and in general the jays were viewed as having made out very well at the deadline.

As I said, just a difference in perspectives on what went out the door and that's all subjective on both sides:)

Just for clarity I wasn't drawing a distinction between the trade deadline and the offseason, but, depending on the market's view of a player's contract, you would value further contract years in assessing a player's value. For example, the return for Kikutchi would have been different if he had another year at $13m left on his deal and the market viewed that $13m as below market. He'd have returned more. Conversely, if the market view was that the remaining term was above market then the Jays would have returned less and/or had to retain salary. You might be right that the market viewed IKF as one of the best hitters and fielders available at the deadline but I will say though that the fact that the Jays had to pay part of IKF's remaining salary tells you that wasn't actually the case.

Ugly

First off, I appreciate the tone from everyone. Good discussion.

Second, I dont know why the Jays would be trading young players at this juncture rather than trading more established players or just signing FA's.

The farm system sucks and got a boost at the deadline. Trading some potential longterm contributors for a more established player might help in 2025 but does nothing for the longer term.

It sure seems like Vlad and Bo will not be back for 2026. Nor will Bassitt, Green, Romano or Genesis.

That impacts 2 things:

1)If they want to transition out of that without a rebuild then they need all the young players with potential they can get.
2) some of those soon to be FA players, if not all, will get traded this offseason or at the trade deadline. 2025 is going to be about keeping the myth alive they can compete, keep the GM employed, and then pull the chute in July and do what they just did - rebuild the upper levels of the farm.

So trading longterm assets for a shot term fix doesnt seem to be in the cards.

Anyway, I agree with Nigel. These guys are not worth all that much.

Kikuchi in 6 starts for the Astros: 35ip 4hr 10bb 47k 2.57era 0.94whip. Houston is 6-0 with him on the bump.

I would be shocked if Guerrero is not back in 2026.

It seems like Vladdy should be the first order of business for the Blue Jays this off-season. The decision whether or not to extend him will dramatically impact the future of the organization.

If he plays well next year and hits free agency, he’ll probably end up with another team. So the time is nigh for Shapiro and Rogers to start thinking long and hard about “the sweet spot of shared risk.”

Ducey i'm not even really thinking about "young v old" in a trade.

I'm thinking about our "sorta young but controllable" guys vs some other teams' "unaffordable prime".

Kinda like a potential Bichette trade in reverse - someone who another team is trading because they don't want to lose him for nothing when he gets expensive in a year or two.

Falefa had a 116wrc+ at the deadline, on a 4-5war pace, top defense all over the infield, a year extra for $7.5m. Nobody thought he would keep it up longterm but that has value at the deadline, especially for a player who'll always give defensive value.

The Jays got a very nice prospect in return:

* McAdoo A (21): 114pa, .348babip, 151wrc+
* McAdoo A+ (22): 258pa, .410babip, 172wrc+
* McAdoo AA (22): 228pa, .295babip, 116wrc+

Time will tell whether it’s McAdoo about nothing.

Jays trading an OF prospect or two for example, makes a ton of sense. They hopefully will sign a LF like Teoscar/O'Neill which means their OF would be Full. They'd then have Barger, Roden, Loperfido, Schneider, Berroa, Lukes, Clase for backups and AAA. A couple of guys can play elsewhere but you just don't need that much depth and flipping someone like Clase for help elsewhere (say, catcher or bullpen) where it's needed makes a ton of sense.

I'd be hesitant to trade Clase. The underlying data shows even though his numbers aren't amazing in his first year, there is a lot that tends to indicate he could have future success at the ML level. Despite the 26.3% K rate, his whiff rate is only 25.9%, and he's actually done quite well against breaking balls. His BB%, barrel %, hard hit %, xwOBA, and Z-Contact are all above average. His plate discipline overall is good, he just needs to swing at more pitches in the zone.

He needs more time in AAA, especially to work on his defense, but if he can improve there, he will be the best option to replace Varsho in a couple of seasons. He's still only 22.

I'm a Roden homer too so I would hate to see him go. I love watching him play, he's an incredibly smart dude with a good head on his shoulders. I really think he will be a good major leaguer who can put up 15-15 with solid defense (has a good arm too) and has the flexibility to play both LF/RF. I believe he is more valuable to the team than Horwitz and Wagner, but the potential combination of all three could seriously wear down opposing pitchers with their plate approaches and OBP potential.

Toronto needs more thump, yes. We are 22nd in HR (145). If we even had 20 more home runs - we'd be 11th. But we are 27th in SB which is a problem too. We are 13th in OBP, which looks better than it is - we traded 2 of our top 4 OBP getters (IKF, Turner), and held up by Vladdy's .400. Clase is a guy who might end up offering all three. Roden can offer a floor to all three.

Power is great, but it's a lot better when you have runners on, to increase the value of those home runs.

Tl;dr - keep Clase and Roden to not mortgage the future, but consider getting what you can out of any of those other OFs mentioned, or trade some of the other OF prospects further away or brought in at the deadline. It's important to remember how quickly a surplus can become a deficit.

I mean you can be super down on Schneider

The most drastic change between 2023 Schneider and 2024 Schneider is very simple - it's his luck. He hit .369 on his Balls in Play in 2023, which is such a fluke it's downright silly, to hitting .265 on them in 2024, which is somewhat unlucky. I think his career numbers to date tell a pretty true story. He's not hopeless, he has something he can build on. Which he needs to do, there's a lot of other people fighting for ABs around here.

Kikuchi certainly has provided value for Houston, but lets look closer... Wagner: 144 wRC+ 0.6 fWAR, Loperfido 64 wRC+ -0.2 fWAR (114 wRC+ since August 15th though so hope is there), Kikuchi 0.9 fWAR 2.53 xFIP (sweet), Bloss still in minors (4.70 ERA over 15 1/3 IP 11 BB 14 SO - not looking as good as he did when traded for, 2.21 ERA overall in minors this year).

The fact Kikuchi is doing so well helps the Houston side of the ledger, the fact Wagner has nearly duplicated Kikuchi in value is a 'wow' given he was seen as the weakest piece in the trade at the time. Loperfido has shown a lot of hope lately, and Blass is a highly regarded pitching prospect right now - probably the highest regarded in the Jays system with Tiedemann injured.

The others traded have not done as well - Turner has a 107 wRC+ for Seattle 0.1 fWAR, Garcia has -0.4 fWAR for them (3 holds, 1 blown save, 0 saves). IKF turned into a pumpkin for Pittsburgh with a 57 wRC+ -0.2 fWAR. Jansen the same for Boston (63 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR). Kiermaier has been literally the same pre and post trade (53 wRC+ here and in LA, 0.3 fWAR here, 0.0 there).

So a net of 0.2 fWAR for all the guys traded (Kikuchi, Turner, Garcia, IKF, Jansen, Kiermaier) vs 0.4 for 2 of the guys for Kikuchi, plus Yarbrough's 0.1 (KK's balancing of dollars). Ooops, forgot Pearson and his 0.1 fWAR for the Cubs, so 0.3 vs 0.5 - so the trades to help in the future have actually added more wins to the Jays than they lost to date, before factoring in the many guys in the minors who might have an impact and the 6 years of control most of these players have after 2024. I'd say anyone complaining about those deals has no understanding of baseball. The Jays made out like bandits imo. Not as insanely one sided as the McGriff trade all those years ago (Dave Collins, team MVP in '84, & McGriff, HOF, & Mike Morgan (did nothing for the Jays but 20 years left in him) for 2 relievers Tom Dodd and Dale Murray who produced negative WAR post Toronto every year) but right now it looks damn good even if Kikuchi gets the Astros to the playoffs and does well there.

"I'd be hesitant to trade Clase. The underlying data shows even though his numbers aren't amazing in his first year, there is a lot that tends to indicate he could have future success at the ML level."

Clase is the guy I'd most likely trade because A) his value is probably decent because he is young enough to still develop B) By far his most likely outcome is 5th OFer.

I am not a scout by any means and haven't watched hours of gameplay but from what I've seen of Clase, he's not someone who has impressed me. It feels like every aspect of his game should be better than it actually is. He has great power and great speed but he doesn't seem to get to his skills very often and his defense is...raw right now. It is tempting to do the "if he puts it all together" thing and it is always possible, but it's also unlikely. I'm not saying trade him just to trade him or trade him for nothing but I'd rather trade Clase than Roden.

The first move of every off-season should be the team contacting the A's to see if they will take a couple of prospects for a star. Brent Rooker is going to be expensive soon!

Bloss was overrated by many at the time of the trade because he moved so quickly. But that was more out of desperation than merit. He's a No. 4 ceiling. He's maybe the best 6-8 arm in the system behind Tiedemann, Maroudis, Rojas, Macko, Yesavage, maybe Barriera, maybe Perry...

Also, a .369 BABIP isn't silly. Average is .300 so it's high but .390+ is more in the silly range.

The Jays have just done a terrible job of handling him... didn't play him enough when he was going good and then kept.him in the Majors when he clearly needed a reset. Plus I didn't think he looked good enough to break camp with the Jays in the spring and probably could have benefitted from working on figuring things out in the minors first.

I'm having problems parsing that last paragraph Mark.
Do you mean the Astros did a terrible job with Bloss or that the Jays did a terrible job with someone else?

WAR isn't a linear stat you can add. 
You can have the 9 best position players in the game and replacement value pitchers and it won't add to a 100 win team.

The Jays need more offense. They don't need more defense.
They need to fix the bullpen. Adding starting pitching would not do much because there are no starters who go 9 innings anymore.

Last year, they had a guy named Francis who pitched over 36 innings with a 1.73 ERA.The have nobody like that this year.
Green, Cabrera and Swanson should be in the pen.
Romano is a big question mark for me. Non-tender? Go to arbitration? (arbitration salary is not guaranteed if the player is released). Extend with generous team options?
I think Pop gets released.
Little seems good enough. I like Burr and Tate as guys with options riding the shuttle and competing for spots.
They just picked up Emmanuel Ramirez as another vet with options.
I sure would like to see Danner.
They could use two top relievers.
The Jays get third basemen from the As but they get relief pitchers from the Marlins.
A think a trade there is always possible.

I like your strategy scottt. Looking at 2023 &24 it was fairly obvious that the Jays needed offense rather than defense. This was not addressed very well. Nothing could be done about the offensive contributions of Springer, Bo and Kirk. Turner was a good add but had a bad year compared to before. I cannot figure out Vogelbach.

The last rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline. It was a full rebuild IMO. 2019 was a painful 95 loss season. I don't see this rebuild as a full rebuild or even a rebuild at all. 2025 will determine my opinion. A 91 win season is a good team. 84-88 is pretty good because it should mean that we are competing for longer.

We have a large quantity of youth but none have star potential. This is the position players. The pitching is good with our starters. The pen is a mystery. For 2019 I cannot think of any stars on Opening day among our position players (maybe Teo) or SPs and not sure about the pen.

If I look at the top 10 catching prospects on mlb, I see that 8 have a 2025 ETA.
The Braves have Drake Baldwin, good being the dish, left bat, .782 OPS, also 2015 ETA and he's not on that list.
That's the type of piece I'd be tempted to acquire in exchange for Bichette or a prospect of two.Just not looking to trade Tiedemann.

I'm pretty sure Marc is commenting on Davis Schneider in his final paragraph.

I have a hard time slotting Bloss behind the likes of Macko tbh.

For what its worth, MLB.com has Bloss as the Jays 3rd best prospect and second best pitcher, after Yesavage.

Macko is 9th.

They also have Roden at 13th, which seems low - although he really emerged in the last few weeks.

Fangraphs is even higher on Bloss.
Team Rank/Top 100 Rank:
Bloss #1/#88
Tiedemann #3/95
Yesavage #4
Macko #6
Barriera #8
Rojas #9

Yeah I'll be honest - MLB prospect rankings are pretty sketchy... especially for the Jays. Keegan does them and they're not his strength.

And Fangraphs has really fallen off, too.

I'll stick with my eyes and experience and I'm just not sold on him as a top arm yet - definitely a big league starter but I don't know about an impact arm.

I said Rojas was an up-and-coming beast back in 2022. Two years ago, I saw Macko as a future reliever but he's made big strides over the past year.

Rankings tend to fall into the shiny new toy syndrome too often.

I like Burr and Tate as guys with options riding the shuttle and competing for spots.

MLBTR reported when Tate last was optioned while still with the Orioles that he was only 44 days from reaching 5 years service time.

So like Biggio earlier this year, the clock is ticking next spring if Dillon makes the club out of camp to the day he can no longer be sent back to AAA even if options remain.

Plus I didn't think (Schneider) looked good enough to break camp with the Jays in the spring and probably could have benefitted from working on figuring things out in the minors first.

You were no doubt quick to acknowledge that the team made the right call when he put up an 824 OPS the first 2 months of the season.

Relievers and position players are different beasts.
The Jays have never optioned Biggio, so having options was not a factor for him.
Biggio was not earning his salary and they had better guys to play at second.
Tate can stay in AAA until they need him and if he's good enough to earn 44 days on the big club, everybody should be happy.

Absolutely turned out to be a decent decision for those two months.

Was it ever sorted out if Jimenez has the extra option for next year? Schneider making the '25 roster probably depends on it.