I wasn't able to catch the game today but it's possible Wallace's innings are being limited - he's already over 100 after pitching just 51 last year due to injury.

Roden continues the hot streak.

The Jays top 30 will be interesting after this season with so many new guys, plus Arjun Nimmala really showing his stuff at 18. His overall line of 233/322/488 is fine for an 18 year old, but his August was 296/330/541 and he is 1 for 2 with a HR in September. I expect him to have a great year in Vancouver next season, and if he keeps it up a great 2nd half in AA with a goal of the majors sometime in 2026 or 2027.

I'm really excited for Nimmala but he will still take time to refine his approach. Sky's the limit, but I hope they're patient with him and have no issue with him spending a year at each level.

At the same age and level, Nimmala numbers look better than Vladdys did.

...sorry, that should read "some of" Nimmala numbers look better....

eh Nimmala is a long way behind Vladdy i think. No insult to Nimmala tho because Vlad was as perfect a hitting prospect as you're ever gonna see.


18yrs old, A

* Guerrero: 318pa, 12.6b%, 10.7k%, .336bip, .316avg, .164iso, 151wrc+
* Nimmala: 339pa, 8.0b%, 32.2k%, .302bip, .233avg, .249iso, 121wrc+

and of course Guerrero had already moved up to A+ for the 2nd half of his 18yr old season:

* Guerrero: 209pa, 17.2b%, 13.4k%, .365bip, .333avg, .161iso, 179wrc+

Nimmala is showing much more game power than Vladdy was back then, but the rest of his line doesn't compare to what Vladdy was doing.


The good news though is that the Jays haven't had an 18yr old hitting well in A other than Vladdy or Nimmala in forever. Fangraphs goes back to 2006 and the only other 18yr old who ever even earned more than a handful of at bats in A was Marcus Brisker, who actually didn't earn anything and shouldn't have been there as for some reason they let him have 116pa in A even though he posted a -5wrc+.


There have been some good 19yr olds in A for the Jays (looking only at min 100pa)....

* B.Bichette: 317pa, 8.8b%, 17.4k%, .452bip, .384avg, .239iso, 201wrc+
* T.Snider: 517pa, 9.5b%, 25.0k%, .397bip, .313avg, .212iso, 151wrc+
* O.Martinez: 326pa, 10.1b%, 26.1k%, .333bip, .279avg, .293iso, 149wrc+
* G.Martinez*: 264pa, 8.3b%, 17.0k%, .314bip, .288avg, .196iso, 135wrc+
* G.Moreno: 341pa, 6.5b%, 11.1k%, .282bip, .280avg, .205iso, 134wrc+
* A.Pinto*: 194pa, 12.4b%, 16.5k%, .290bip, .242avg, .121iso, 119wrc+


And then a handful of 19yr olds who were managed average to slightly above performance in A.....R.Urena (107wrc+), J.Jackson (107wrc+), S.Taylor (103wrc+), E.Machado* (101wrc+), K.Ahrens (100wrc+).

I've marked a few guys with an asterisk because the numbers from 2022 seem inflated for some reason.



So it's hard to compare Nimmala to anyone because 18yr olds are just not usually at this level. If i were to try and translate his 18yr old performance to compare to the 19yr olds, I think it would be safe to put him in a similar category as Moreno and Orelvis and Snider.


But his young age might also make us look more closely at what he's done since he was called back up from those few weeks in complex league:

* Nimmala: 244pa, 8.6b%, 29.9k%, .331bip, .266avg, .313iso, 152wrc+

Now that line would leap him ahead of the likes of Moreno or Orelvis or Snider IMO and put him more at the level of Bichette. Still not quite at Vladdy's level though because Vladdy just had super elite sustainable underlyings all the way through....and again, Vladdy had long since been promoted to A+ by this point in the season, and was crushing A+ even more than he had A.

AAA

Young:

* X IF Martinez (22): 269pa, 8.9b%, 24.2k%, .288bip, .260avg, .264iso, 120wrc+
* OF Clase (22): 375pa, 12.0b%, 26.1k%, .324bip, .257avg, .189iso, 96wrc+

Clase still not doing much since we got him, but overall numbers still decent for his age.

Of Age:

* X IF Jimenez (23): 226pa, 13.3b%, 15.0k%, .300bip, .271avg, .160iso, 131wrc+
* IF Kasevich (23): 98pa, 4.1b%, 15.3k%, .338bip, .293avg, .087iso, 84wrc+

Kasevich's numbers tumbled along with his babip returning to normal. He's gonna need to develop a bit of pop to ever be a real prospect imo.

Slightly Old:

* X UT Barger (24): 249pa, 16.1b%, 19.3k%, .299bip, .260avg, .206iso, 127wrc+
* OF Roden (24): 225pa, 11.6b%, 14.7k%, .342bip, .308avg, .169iso, 127wrc+
* UT Palmegiani (24): 438pa, 11.0b%, 28.8k%, .276bip, .214avg, .161iso, 82wrc+

Roden's now completely caught up to Barger in prospect performance, and I'd treat them similarly going forward.

Veterans:

* X 1B Horwitz (26): 259pa, 17.0b%, 15.8k%, .401bip, .335avg, .179iso, 159wrc+
* X OF Lukes (29): 220pa, 9.5b%, 14.5k%, .367bip, .330avg, .142iso, 131wrc+
* X IF Wagner (25): 355pa, 16.6b%, 10.4k%, .339bip, .315avg, .129iso, 129wrc+
* X OF Loperfido (25): 189pa, 11.1b%, 28.0k%, .316bip, .272avg, .296iso, 123wrc+
* OF Berroa (25): 250pa, 12.0b%, 24.4k%, .361bip, .287avg, .167so, 119wrc+
* 1B Tirotta (25): 287pa, 14.6b%, 26.5k%, .304bip, .243avg, .200iso, 117wrc+
* X IF DeLosSantos (26): 154pa, 13.6b%, 22.7k%, .310bip, .260avg, .181iso, 116wrc+
* X C Serven (29): 159pa, 16.4b%, 28.9k%, .386bip, .265avg, .114iso, 110wrc+
* C Clarke (26): 158pa, 14.6b%, 15.2k%, .276bip, .244avg, .115iso, 98wrc+

All these guys deserved callups but only Horwitz demanded it. The others all have a chance to be MLB contributors right now. Clarke only here if he actually can handle catching duties though.




AA

Young:

* IF Paulino (21): 278pa, 10.4b%, 21.6k%, .335bip, .263avg, .128iso, 112wrc+

Paulino has started a rehab assignment in Dunedin. I wouldn't be surprised to see him join Vancouver for the playoffs instead of going back to AA.

Of Age:

* IF McAdoo (22): 218pa, 11.0b%, 25.7k%, .305bip, .246avg, .204iso, 122wrc+
* IF Dejesus (22): 425pa, 8.2b%, 28.0k%, .357bip, .260avg, .117iso, 103wrc+
* OF Pinango (22): 310pa, 10.0b%, 19.7k%, .261bip, .215avg, .109iso, 86wrc+
* OF Brown (22): 81pa, 3.7b%, 32.1k%, .271bip, .176avg, .095iso, 42wrc+

McAdoo looking legit. Dejesus borderline. Pinango not looking like a prospect. Brown unfortunately not doing anything at all since his promotion.

Old:

* OF Schreck (23): 134pa, 13.4%, 23.9k%, .293bip, .241avg, .250iso, 142wrc+
* 1B Nunez (23): 392pa, 9.9b%, 19.6k%, .318bip, .274avg, .146iso, 119wrc+

Still a small AA sample for Schreck and old for the level but if he can maintain that line he looks like a real prospect. And Nunez seems to be heating up a bit to finish the year, even though his game power still isn't showing.




A+

Young:

* OF Arias (20): 40pa, 15.0b%, 12.5k%, .379bip, .324avg, .029iso, 131wrc+
* IF Coffey (20): 359pa, 11.1b%, 24.2k%, .258bip, .224avg, .195iso, 110wrc+

I guess Arias is done for the year? Coffey picking it up a bit after a slow start after the trade, and still has a very nice line for his age.

Of Age:

* IF Pinto (21): 58pa, 5.2b%, 8.6k%, .348bip, .340avg, .283iso, 181wrc+
* IF Harry (21): 431pa, 8.1b%, 21.3k%, .239bip, .208avg, .153iso, 88wrc+

Pinto showing everything you could want to see from a high end prospect in this small sample. Harry not looking like a prospect tho.

* OF Bohrofen (22): 466pa, 12.2b%, 23.8k%, .316bip, .252avg, .176iso, 125wrc+
* 1B Orf (22): 195pa, 14.9b%, 22.6k%, .299bip, .239avg, .184iso, 120wrc+

Both of these guys heating up a bit to finish the year. Good enough to keep tabs on still.




A

Very young:

* IF Nimmala (18): 339pa, 8.0b%, 32.2k%, .302bip, .233avg, .249iso, 121wrc+

very nice.

Young:

* OF Joseph (19): 273pa, 7.3b%, 24.5k%, .281bip, .222avg, .134iso, 91wrc+

I guess he's done for the year? decent enough line for his age if so.

Of Age:

* OF Mitchell (20): 84pa, 8.3b%, 21.4k%, .396bip, .338avg, .183iso, 159wrc+
* C Duran (20): 318pa, 12.3b%, 15.1k%, .293bip, .245avg, .071iso, 99wrc+
* IF Beltre (20): 437pa, 9.6b%, 18.5k%, .288bip, .237avg, .092iso, 97wrc+

Mitchell doesn't seem to be want to slow down yet. Looks very legit. Duran and Beltre passable, but the kinds of lines that only look prospecty if some legit defense is coming along with it.

Old:

* C Parker (21): 89pa, 18.0b%, 24.7k%, .267bip, .236avg, .292iso, 157wrc+
* 3B Keys (21): 83pa, 12.0b%, 24.1k%, .346bip, .271avg, .171iso, 122wrc+
* IF Freethy (21): 65pa, 24.6b%, 23.1k%, .300bip, .200avg, .000iso, 118wrc+
* C Tibbitts (21): 78pa, 9.0b%, 12.8k%, .350bip, .304avg, .058iso, 115wrc+

Parker the standouts, but all of these guys off to nice starts fresh out of the draft and looking fairly prospectish.

Too old:

* OF Micheletti (22): 79pa, 13.9b%, 13.9k%, .373bip, .333avg, .190iso, 180wrc+
* OF Cunningham (23): 93pa, 19.4b%, 22.6k%, .255bip, .197avg, .091iso, 116wrc+

Micheletti looking great but can't get excited about a guy this age at this level. Cunningham not impressive at all tbh at his age here.

The silver lining is that there's no need to use a roster spot on guys who have struggled at AA.

Great detail uglyone. Always appreciate the work you put into organizing the data!

Thanks for putting that together.

One question for you UO - I brought this up at one point in another thread but not sure if you saw it. But I'm curious about your logic of determining age-appropriateness for each level. I would fully agree with your logic if this was even five years ago. But things have changed so much.

The draft takes place six weeks later than it used to; well past the college season ending, which means a lot of those players that used to sign right away in June either end up being shut down, or don't start playing until August. There's also no short season ball, which significantly hurts all draftees. High school hitters rarely get ABs the year they're drafted, and with all the pitcher health/injury concerns, pitchers rarely pitch in their draft year for fear of starting them back up.

Now of course, there is nuance and I know the way you view it isn't meant to account for that. I try to view a high school or international draftee differently as they became full-time ballplayers much sooner than college draftees. So to me, for players that aren't dealing with full season injuries, it's:

Appropriate Ages, College:
A - 20-21
A+ - 21-22
AA - 22-23
AAA - 23-24

Appropriate Ages, High School Batters:
Rk - 18-19
A - 19-20
A+ - 20-21
AA - 21-22
AAA - 22-23

Of course, exceptional players will always exceed this, especially exceptional high school or international players. I think a college player, as long as he can get to AAA within two seasons post-draft, is worth considering, regardless of age.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting to discuss. I try not to be too dismissive about player age compared to what I might have done years ago, now that it is a more common occurrence for players to get to the majors at 24-25 (or even 25-26 for injury riddled pitchers).

further prospecting ... former Bauxite Tammy Rainey has posted her latest "Ups and Downs on the Farm August Edition" over on BlueJaysNation

I agree the ages are important but not everything and think Kelekin's chart is pretty good. I also think time in the minors and progress rate is super important. Look at RJ Schreck for example. Debut in 2023 in CPX and moved up to A. 100 PAs total. This year did A+ and AA+. I assume he'll start in AAA next year. He just turned 24 so he's technically old for AA but he's moving up the system nicely and having your age 24 season in AAA is fine. Superstar prospects are a different breed but don't think it's fair to compare other guys to Vlad or Jackson Holiday or whomever.

Jays need to trade some Of prospects this off-season I think because they have a ton at AAA/majors level . Barger, Clase, Schneider, Roden, Loperfido with Varsho, Springer and hopefully a free agent. (not to mention Luke's and Berroa who both look like viable 5th OF). Jays have needs elsewhere and a swap makes sense to me.

Jays have played well in August which bodes well for future but not for draft pick. They are now positioned at 8th best odds for #1 pick. I don't think the marginal difference in odds for #1 matter so much as overall odds do. For example, if you have 5th best odds, you actually have a 31% chance of picking in top-3 which is the elite zone and you can't pick worse than 10th. If you have 8th best odds, you have 13% chance of picking top-3 and you can pick as low as 12th.

Kelekin....your age breakdowns seem fine to me.


For me, i try to err on the side of being harsh on prospects as most of them fail.

And really it comes from my experience tracking prospects - far too many "older" prospects i've thought were interesting only to see them lose anything interesting as soon as they got on the age/level track that I use.

As for the college vs high school/IFA age thing.....I kinda agree with you but only up to a point. Straight out of the draft I agree college players do get more leeway in terms of age v level....but at the same time i have higher expectations on them to rise more quickly through levels than a high schooler does. A big part of drafting college players is that they should be more "ready". I don't know exactly where the leeway ends but it's probably somewhere near the end of their first full season of milb baseball - at that point (at the lates) i expect them to be right in line with IFA/high schoolers in terms of age/level.

And even then with a player like our crew of 21yr old draftees in Dunedin right now - i still do have the same expectations for them statistically as I would a 21yr old high school draftee at that level. The good news is that most all of those 21yr old college draftees in Dunedin are hitting well above average and at a "legit prospect" level to start.

Barger is no longer a prospect because he has surpassed 150ABs. He is also about 1 month younger than Roden.

Trading from our quantity of OFs this off season is an interesting and very logical thought. What would any team look for and get? Could we trade for something that would be good in 2025 or do we settle for a future player ETA 2026-2028? I am just asking rather than challenging anyone. We did get Chapman in an off season trade. But that was with Oakland. AA got a C from them in an off season trade. I suspect we need to find 4-5 Oakland type teams. But then there are only about 4 "no hope" teams IMO

Also I probably shouldn't label the guys 1yr old for the level as "old", i should probably say "slightly old".

I include them still because I think good performance at just one year old for the level is significant, and that it keeps them in legit prospect status.

But once it gets to 2+yrs old for the level I don't even mention them in the prospect picture (aside from the guys straight out of the draft like Micheletti).

Of course, once they get to AAA then performance is performance and any top performance at any age could translate into MLB usefulness, like with Lukes and Clement. But for me that's different than tracking actual prospects.

I would say the last few years, and even this year, the lost year to Covid in 2020 has skewed the age appropriateness of prospects a bit. Losing a full year of development through playing actual games is not to be discounted.

yeah maybe....but 2 caveats...1) 3yrs is a long long time in prospect development and any lingering effects should be minimal now and 2) it should have effected all prospects equally so their comparative stats should still look about the same.

Bloss is back. Four innings pitched tonight, two hits, four walks, five K's, no runs. 81 pitches so his command was a little off, 44 strikes, 37 balls.

Also Roden and Kasevich each have two hits.

New Hampshire won a game, first one in eleven days.

"And really it comes from my experience tracking prospects - far too many "older" prospects i've thought were interesting only to see them lose anything interesting as soon as they got on the age/level track that I use."

I'll never forget Chip Cannon's .830 SLG in Dunedin in 2005.

Appreciate the response and discussion on it.

I do really wish baseball brought back at least one short season level. Or considered moving the draft and deadline up a month (though I know they won't for logistical reasons).

Since coming back from injury in 8 Vancover starts K Rojas has pitched deep into games, thrown over 100 pitches in a game, high Ks and V few walks. I expect he will start in NH next year and be on an innings limit. With success he could move up to Buffalo and even the Jay's bullpen. Probably wishful thinking.