The Twins are fortunate to avoid the freight train that is Bowden Francis.

Francis has had about as impressive a stretch of four starts as you can have. How meaningful is that? How much can you read into this kind of performance?

Clearly this makes it much more likely that Francis is a good starting pitcher. But have those chances gone from 0.1% to 5%; or from 1% to 30%?

Well, Mike Green believed in Francis all along. Even before Gausman taught him the splitter.

It’s the only reason I haven’t completely given up on Davis Schneider.

Davis Schneider is learning a splitter?

MG has been very astute about many things over the years and I likewise agree Davis Schneider isn’t one to simply toss away.

My main point though is that the Twins should lose tonight primarily because of those hideous uniforms. Dear god.

Dear lord why does Carlos Santana continue to do this to us. Without fail.

On point again, that was an exceptional play by Lukes.

those hideous uniforms.

Major league teams don't dress like that.

Somebody let Mattingly lead the hitters' meetings again...

Lowest thread/comment posting all season happening right now. I expect to see much lower attendance at the Rogers Centre starting next home stand based on back to school/work.

Nice to see Lukes making it back up and having a great game.  His season, and his whole career, have been a grind. 

I'd prefer meaningful baseball, but it is fun to see a bunch of new guys getting opportunities.  So many, poor Lukes might be redundant next year.  Sounds like he's going to stick for the rest of the season and play a bit right now though, per Schneider.  

Francis is must-watch too, right now.  I missed the no-hit bid, but have been watching more closely.  How does he do it?  It all seems so - hittable? 

Definitely a development-win for the org.  I remember thinking Atkins was BSin way back when they made the Tellez trade, talking about Francis as a starter. 

Pop and Little helping their cause a touch again. But for 2025 I hope neither is on the roster day one. I'm good with both being depth options, but neither is good enough for a championship pen at the moment imo. Current pen of Green, Cabrera, Pop, Little, Swanson, Burr, Yarborough, and Nance is doing OK, but really isn't much. Green & Cabrera have been strong, Swanson is getting back to his old good form and should be good for 2025, Yarborough is a free agent post-2024 who the Jays might try to hold onto (6th starter/long man) but the rest are what they are - depth options that should be fighting for the #7/8 slots at best.

A good question for 2025 is do the Jays spend the money to get a high end starter and push one of Yariel Rodriguez or Bowden Francis to the pen? Then if/when Manoah returns do you go to a 6 man rotation for August/September? Guess it all depends how the Jays are doing then.

Speaking of free agents, Soto seems to be demanding a $600 mil deal with multiple opt-outs. Yikes, at that point I'd walk away unless you can make the years pre-opt-out so cheap in cash an opt-out might work well from a bottom line POV. Opt-outs are putting 100% of the risk on the team and 0% on the player - if he sucks or gets hurt the team pays, if he does better than expected he walks and gets a bigger deal. Still think the Jays should bid on him, to push the price higher on whoever gets him in the end, but avoid adding opt-outs.

I'd prefer meaningful baseball

Word. There is an ancient Eastern proverb that says "Those who complain about a 90 win team shall be blessed with a 77 win team and three months of fairly meaningless baseball. That's just karma."

Hey, I don't make the rules.

I'm with you John. Pop is one of those guys where the stuff is there so he gets more runway hoping he puts it all together. Of course, as soon as we drop him, he'll find success.

I do think Burr should be given a chance next year. He's been better than the ERA shows.

Pearson's doing pretty decent so far for the Cubs.

Burr and Pop both are interesting. I like the idea of keeping them around, but not at risk of losing a prospect or to block a decent signing/trade.

Current 40 man plus 60 day IL (have to be added back post-2024) is at 42. Paolo Espino is one of the easy cuts. Ryan Yarbrough is a free agent - that gets us to 40 right away. Tommy Nance has been OK but isn't a big deal to lose either, other bubble candidates I'd say are Ryan Burr, José Cuas, Nathan Lukes, Brian Serven, Brendon Little, Zach Pop, Easton Lucas, Yerry Rodríguez, Brandon Eisert, Luis Frías, Nick Raposo, and Luis De Los Santos. Phew, lots of bubble guys - a dozen - none look like more than backup/role players/back end bullpen pieces thus not major losses by any stretch. So no real roster crunch of any kind going into the winter unless there are more guys needing to be added than I expect. I think that means college draftees from 2020 or earlier, plus IFA's from 2019 or earlier & high schoolers drafted in 2019 or earlier. Given the 2020 draft was just 5 rounds that ain't much - Zach Britton, Trent Palmer, CJ Van Eyk - all flopping. The IFA's are Dahian Santos, Marcos De La Rosa, Victor Arias, Justin Ammons, Cristopher Castro, Cristian Feliz, Stephen Vargas, Starlin Beltre. 2019 HS draftees include Dasan Brown, Nick Neal, Michael Dominguez and that's about it. So yeah, the Jays should have lots of space to debate a rule 5 pick this winter or to sign a few free agents. It'll be interesting to see how they handle it - 40 man slots are valuable for signing quality AAAA guys (gives them a higher shot of getting called up which is critical to them) too.

The thing about RP is they are so variable from one year to the next, it's not worth investing big money in them.

Swanson could be lights out next year. Pop could pop. Romero is still around too.

Nance could be good next year or gone.

Heck, a good move might be to trade Green while his value is high.

According to Zwellen, the Jays will call up a reliever and an infielder with versatility when rosters expand. The INF sounds like De Los Santos since he's really the only option but I'm also curious to see a little more from him. He hits the ball hard and has good ABs.

John, I believe 2021 college picks have to be protected this year. I believe the season they sign counts as one of the four years. If so, they'll probably add Juenger and Wallace. With Cooke and Dallas, I suspect it comes down to how long they're out for.

I expect the Jays will add Pardinho and Santos as well.

Other eligible names: Tirotta, Clarke, Fisher, Schultz, Robertson, Palmegiani, Dominiguez, Tolhurst, Quinones, Beltre.

I'm not sure any of those guys will be added, but maybe Tirotta, Fisher, or Schultz, as the latter two I believe are minor league FAs. I don't think they are afraid to lose Clarke - he isn't a viable option as a catcher, but doesn't hit for enough power to be a 1B.

Luis De Los Santos and Brandon Eisert have been placed on the taxi squad by Buffalo. Taxi to Minnesota or Toronto perhaps?

Great start tonight! It’s like they’re trying to make up for the last few games in Minny

The Buffalo Boys are showing some fight in the early going. Horwitz, Wagner, Barger, Jimenez, Lukes have contributed to the 9-0 lead with a combined 7 hits (including two home runs and a double) and a walk.

Real uppity of them. Must be painful for their detractors to watch.

There have been a ton of good ABs tonight but Horwitz, Wagner and Jimenez have all had good ABs every time up.

Interesting that Matt Hague is always moving around the dugout talking to guys.

Not sure what the other hitting coaches do in comparison

Schneider comes into the game and strikes out and then an inning or so later hits into a double play against a position player.

I dont know how bad it has to get for him to be sent down

It's so nice to see the Wagner/Horwitz kind of abs after years of Jays just swinging and missing at everything. Not sure either is a starter in majors, but it's nice to watch for a change.

After his five hits tonight, Wagner is rocking a 950 OPS.

Lukes has to feel great about his four-hit performance as well.

Great game tonight, too bad the Twins didn't show up. MLB might have to take further steps on position player pitching if we're getting several innings of 40mph lobs. Aside from Jose Canseco back in the day, have any position players hurt themselves pitching? Most of these guys can throw 85mph+, you'd think they would at least be allowed to try, and have some fun. ANyway...

One huge positive of the current September MLB setup compared to the old days is that the much reduced roster size and increased playoffs mean you get to evaluate the new guys against actual major league level pitching/hitting. And a team like the Jays gets to play the guys they want 4-5 times a week, or all in one game like tonight.

Schneider seemed to be trying a more upright batting stance tonight, but the only AB against actual pitching, caught the old "struggling guy at bat" special - two on the outside upper black for strikes, 3 not that close, and a pretty good 3-2 offspeed pitch. Nothing really hittable, just a tough ML AB.  He might come out of it tomorrow, or never...some guys never find it again. Gotta' give him some reps though, if you're not shutting him down for the season (mental health reasons are real).

Gotta love these types of games for the Jays - Wagner 5 hits (not bad for the guy who looked like a throw in), 4 for Lukes (career minor leaguer), 3 each for Horwitz & Vlad (1B combo), 2 for Varsho, Barger, and Kirk (all needed those hits in disappointing seasons with the bat) plus Jimenez too (trying to prove he belongs before Bo returns)

Not often the win probability hits 98.3% in the 2nd inning (once up 9-0), and at 99.9% by the 6th (12-0 lead). Especially with 3 more runs to come.

Still feeling good about 2025 - Kirk C, Vlad/Horwitz 1B/DH, Wagner/Schneider 2B, Clement/Barger 3B, Bo/Jimenez SS, Loperfido/Schneider LF, Varsho CF, Springer RF, with backups being Schneider/Clement/Jimenez plus a catcher. Extra positions: Horwitz & Clement can play LF, Wagner 1B/3B/SS, Vlad 3B, Jimenez 2B (plus 1 inning at 3B in 2019), Schneider 1B/3B/RF (plus 6 innings at SS in 2019), Loperfido 1B/2B/CF/RF (280+ innings at each in the minors), and of course you have Varsho as an emergency C (but I'd be shocked if he ever plays it again) and he can play LF/RF but why would you unless you have Kiermaier around?

So yeah, there is a team there for 2025 which could be good as recent play has shown. Berrios/Gausman/Bassitt/Francis/Rodriguez could be a solid rotation with Manoah as a mid-season 'trade' (returns from injury ala Ryu). Jake Bloss takes over the Pearson/Tiedemann 'uber prospect who will wow the world' slot, and maybe they resign Ryan Yarbrough to be a long man/6th rotation slot ala Ross Stripling (2021/2022 version - not the 77 ERA+ version since he left and currently in Oakland's bullpen).

Luis De Los Santos and Brandon Eisert have been placed on the taxi squad by Buffalo. 

It's a good thing that the Jays received some MLB-ready pieces for Kikuchi in Wagner/Loperfido/Bloss.

There’s a lot of Buffalo already up with the team, but those are two very uninspired Sept roster expansion choices given the end of this season is about tryouts for 2025.

Bloss is also essentially the only arm that came back at the deadline. So improvement is going to have to come either internally from recovered injured prospects or veteran FAs.

Looking back, they stuck with Biggio way too long.It's good to send guys who struggle back to AAA to sort it out.

De los Santos hits the ball consistently hard, plays multiple positions, has a strong arm, some power and had good/competitive ABs in his last stint despite getting inconsistent playing time. There are no other infielders pushing for 40-man roster slots. I have no issue seeing if De Los Santos has a platoon or backup ceiling. He'll still have two milb option seasons after this year.

And it sounds like a few players could rotate into the 9th reliever slot the rest of the way. And Bloss is reaching an innings limit (plus he was rushed). I'd rather see what Andrew Bash can do as a 2/3 inning reliever.

the only other Bison i really wanted to see was Roden.

Certain players if here in 2025 will have their positions because they have proved their value. Vlad, Kirk, Varsho & Bo. Springer also but as a RF/DH and possible CF.

Everyone else is a tryout. These tryouts all bring something to the table. D Schneider is also trying out IMO.

I remember Pillar succeeding against all odds. I expect some of the new players to do the same. Only Jimenez has no options so he will be given a longer rope. When Bo returns I expect Jimenez to play 2B.

There are many tryout candidates on the 40 man roster that have options. Then there are equally good candidates that are not on the 40 man and don't have to be added but knocking very hard on the door.

This is a very interesting rebuild.

I've briefly scanned/heard MLB projections for these players in '25, and this screed is assuming Bichette returns healthy as is the SS in '25 but....

Regardless of the performance of the deadline haul group, and the younger players added from June onwards (the Horwitz callup), this team still needs a lot of help to be contenders next year. It would be fools gold to expect any of them to be the primary starter at any position.

To me, Horwitz remains the most likely to be a solid contributor next season in terms of position platers. He's seen the league pitchers make adjustments to him w/r/t how to get him out, and he has responded adequately. There's no question Loperfido, Barger, Wagner and Jimenez are faring pretty well for themselves in a relative sense, but I'm still hoping Brandon Lowe is the team's second baseman next season and they find thumpers for LF and DH and target a decent catcher that can hit. There's no question in my mind, short of those things happening, we will see similar offensive struggles/inconsistency in the pre-July that helped torpedo the '24 season.

The emergence of Bowden Francis as a rotation piece certainly changes the off-season goals as I see it. Instead of starting pitching being a must, you can squint to see a scenario where Bowden is the #4 and Yariel is the #5 and you
only need to sign Ryan Yarborough as a swingman, and as a potential bulk starter in case of injury of under performance.

I really like Brandon Lowe as a realistic target for the Jays. Shapiro and Atkins have alluded to left handed power as a need in their talks with reporters this season, and Lowe fits the bill. I don't think he'd cost a whole lot in term and dollars because of his significant injury past, and is only 30 and plays a decent second base. It would be a nice way to break up the slew of righties at the top of the Jays lineup we have seen the last few years. A two or three year deal for Lowe wouldn't break the bank and you have Jimenez on the bench or in AAA in case of injury.

I would hope and wonder as well if the other free agent bat that makes the most sense is Teoscar Hernandez. It would certainly win back a lot of fans (not that it matters). My guess is, Teoscar would also cost 2-3 years (probably 3) but my would he look nice as the primary DH, occasionally spelling Springer or playing LF depending on who else is out there.

With Lowe and Teoscar and the return of a healthy Bo, I'd feel good enough about the offense where I'd be more willing to bank on being thinner in the rotation and the bullpen.

What do you all think?

It's kids day at the park...no Vlad, no Springer, no Varsho.

Strangely Wagner is not in there.

With De los Santos though, simply by scouting the stat line, I don’t see anything there.

He can play multiple positions and most importantly, he can hit lefty pitching. Big weakness for most of the team. Only Vlad, Varsho and Jimenez are over 100 wRC+, with most of the rest with pretty awful lines.

tbh I think it would be foolish not to count on a few of these younger guys being solid regulars next year.

but you can't rely on anyone other than Vladdy to be a true impact position player.


Lemme just check the current combined projections on fangraphs....

* 3B Guerrero (26): 150wrc+, 4.5war/650pa
* 1B Horwitz (27): 117wrc+, 2.7war/650pa
* SS Bichette (27): 113wrc+, 3.9war/650pa
* C Kirk (26): 112wrc+, 5.1war/650pa
* RF Springer (35): 110wrc+, 2.7war/650pa
* CF Varsho (28): 105wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
* 2B Wagner (26): 105wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* LF Schneider (26): 103wrc+, 1.9war/650pa
* DH Barger (25): 98wrc+, 1.8war/650pa

* OF Lukes (30): 103wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* IF Clement (29): 97wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* IF Jimenez (24): 93wrc+, 1.8war/650pa
* C Serven (30): 58wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* OF Loperfido (26): 87wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* OF Berroa (26): 76wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* IF DeLosSantos (27): 73wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* C Raposo (27): 68wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* IF Orelvis (23): 93wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
* UT McAdoo (23): 89wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* OF Clase (23): 78wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* C Clarke (27): 87wrc+, 0.0war/650pa




Other than the back up catcher, I don't think there's anyone there that i don't want to see get time next year.

But i'd obviously love another impact bat at the top of the lineup.

Sitting Wagner is odd but Schneider has chosen to sit guys after big games semi regularly. It happened several times to Clement in the first half.

If the Blue Jays had more independent journalists covering the team, they could ask Schneider straight up why he often chooses to sit a young player (Davis Schneider, Clement, Wagner) the day after they have a huge game at the plate -- and maybe provide some specific examples.

It's hard to imagine any journalist on the Blue Jays beat doing this.

From the looks of their Twitter accounts, most Jays reporters haven't been traveling with the team recently so Rogers has possibly cut back on media expenses.

I suspect give a kid the day off after a good game is similar to what some past managers have done (Cito I think did this sometimes) - the idea is for them to relax and feel good, rather than spend the day stewing after a day off after a bad game. In the olden days you'd punish a kid for a bad game, now it is more 'lets build up their confidence'. Streaks are 100% unpredictable - a guy can go from hot to cold in an instant. So odds are a day off after a 5 hit game won't cool him down anymore than playing him would. Plus at this point I suspect the Jays are letting the players know 'you play on Monday/Tuesday', 'he plays Wednesday/Thursday', etc. It has been said often knowing when you are playing so your routine can be set is critical to the success of a player at this level so that makes a lot of sense.

Vlad OPS by Month:
June: .968
July: 1.113
August: 1.127
Sept: ?????

UO, I'm with you. I think some of these guys will definitely contribute, and I also wanted to see Roden, but assume for 40-man reasons and having Loperfido/Barger it'd mean limited ABs. Still, I think there's a non-zero chance Roden could make a bigger impact with the bat immediately, even though Loperfido has a higher all-around ceiling.

The biggest issue with reliance on the rookies right now is the adjustment period. Barger has 6 BB to 43 K. Jimenez 9 BB to 44 K. Loperfido 3 BB to 29 K. Wagner 2 BB to 9 K. We might get more power with Barger and Loperfido but it might come at the expense of a significant drop in OBP.

One thing we do lack is an OBP+speed table setter at the top of the lineup. Honestly, vs righties, I rather see Horwitz leading off more than anyone on this team with the number of pitches he sees. Horwitz has a .383 OBP and .866 OPS against righties. OTOH, I also think Horwitz should sit against lefties, where he has a .441 OPS (he couldn't hit lefties in AAA either over two seasons).

That's what makes Luis De Los Santos at least interesting. He has a 1.083 OPS against lefties this year. He was way better against lefties in 2023 too. He may be a perfect right-handed platoon option off the bench.

Looking at the lineup I like how they are giving Lukes a run of playing time and getting De Los Santos into the lineup right away. Both are guys who have paid their dues in the minors, so seeing them getting a shot after solid years in AAA will only help push the other 'real prospects' to do more. There is something to be said about showing players that hard work/dedication/loyalty will be rewarded. Given the team is out of the race, it is good to be putting Jimenez at 2B often so his versatility can be tested - odds are in 2025 he'll be in a Clement type role.

Next year's bench will have (as is today): Jimenez, Schneider, Clement/Barger (whoever isn't playing) - all 4 can cover multiple position in the majors with all but Jimenez having played some OF. CF is set with Loperfido backing up Varsho and Springer as the 3rd CF. Schneider the main LF backup, Barger the main RF backup, Clement the emergency backup, Horwitz also in LF. I'd like to see if Jimenez can cover 3B but the Jays probably already know if he can (wondering if his arm isn't quite enough or something) plus with Clement/Barger/Vlad you have that spot covered.

If all Schneider becomes is what we seen so far - about a 100 OPS+ LF/2B backup - that is useful but not greatly valuable. The question is which is the real guy, the 79 OPS+ we've seen in 2024 or the mix of '23 monster and '24 kitten? A very streaky guy who can carry the team for a few weeks, then needs to be benched for a month. Or can his flaws be addressed? I wouldn't be surprised if someone takes him away in a trade this winter to deepen the pen a bit. He is still pre-arb thus very valuable to a club (tons of years of control plus low pay with great potential). With all the young 2B options (Wagner, Horwitz, Martinez) I could easily see the Jays dumping Schneider for help where it is really, really needed.

Honestly, vs righties, I rather see Horwitz leading off more than anyone on this team with the number of pitches he sees.

A downside to Horwitz leading off against RHP is that he's glacially slow.

He's slower than 93% of the league this year. His straight line speed is only 0.6 seconds faster than Kirk.

Even getting beyond the old school thinking that your leadoff man should be able to steal bases. It's simply a fact that Horwitz as a runner is a little less valuable than anyone else other than your catcher.

Sorry, that should read that Horwitz is only 0.6 ft/s faster than Kirk.

Right now I think the optimal lineups, with an offense + matchup first lens, with what we have are:

vs RHP:

C - Kirk
1B - Horwitz
2B - Wagner
SS - Clement
3B - Guerrero Jr.
LF - Loperfido
CF - Varsho
RF - Barger
DH - Springer

Bench: Jimenez (MI), Schneider (LF/2B), Lukes (OF), De Los Santos (IF), Serven (C)

vs LHP:

C - Kirk
1B - Guerrero Jr.
2B - Jimenez
SS - Clement
3B - De Los Santos
LF - Schneider
CF - Varsho
RF - Springer
DH - Rotating bench

Bench: Horwitz (1B/2B), Wagner (1B/2B), Loperfido (OF), Barger (RF/3B), Serven (C)

I recognize Schneider/Springer can't hit their way out of a paper bag right now, but there's no world where they take Springer out and Schneider is the only righty LF so they're still going to give him chances.

If you get Bichette back, and add one big righty power bat, and one righty LF platoon option (looking at you O'Neill!), and I think we could have a pretty acceptable lineup next year.

Thanks pooks137. I didn't catch that with Horwitz' sprint speed. That being said, I don't see many options that would be better leading off given our lack of speed. We are by and large a slow team.

I should correct myself - we're not really a slow team anymore. But all our good hitters are average to bad sprint speed.

If George can regain his form, he absolutely can make sense as a leadoff hitter on this team. But we're banking on a lot given the last two seasons.

hmm yeah i haven't really looked at the L/R splits for all the new guys.

so far this year:

vRHP

* 2B Wagner 47pa, .447babip, 192wrc+
* DH Guerrero 484pa, .346babip, 161wrc+
* 1B Horwitz 235pa, .322babip, 146wrc+
* RF Springer 413pa, .239babip, 100wrc+
* SS Jimenez 114pa, .284babip, 96wrc+
* 3B Clement 242pa, .265babip, 93wrc+
* CF Varsho 392pa, .247babip, 92wrc+
* C Kirk 231pa, .268babip, 90wrc+
* LF Schneider 281pa, .268babip, 89wrc+

* UT Barger 137pa, .247babip, 89wrc+
* OF Loperfido 173pa, .354babip, 88wrc+
* C Serven 38pa, .333babip, 87wrc+
* IF Bichette 269pa, .286babip, 83wrc+

* OF Lukes 9pa, .625babip, 311wrc+
* IF DeLosSantos 6pa, .200babip, 112wrc+
* OF Clase 22pa, .400babip, 92wrc+
* IF Orelvis 3pa, .500babip, 91wrc+
* OF Berroa 32pa, .200babip, 57wrc+



vLHP

* 1B Guerrero 110pa, .324babip, 193wrc+
* CF Varsho 92pa, .328babip, 143wrc+
* SS Jimenez 36pa, .474babip, 122wrc+
* 3B Clement 114pa, .253babip, 96wrc+
* CF Springer 120pa, .219babip, 80wrc+
* C Kirk 76pa, .216babip, 80wrc+
* 2B Wagner 11pa, .143babip, 71wrc+
* DH Schneider 109pa, .250babip, 60wrc+
* LF Loperfido 32pa, .222babip, 53wrc+

* UT Horwitz 55pa, .194babip, 29wrc+
* UT Barger 27pa, .286babip, 25wrc+
* IF Bichette 62pa, .184babip, 7wrc+
* C Serven 15pa, .111babip, -41wrc+

* OF Berroa 9pa, .400babip, 76wrc+
* OF Clase 21pa, .167babip, -28wrc+




yikes i had no idea we were that horrific vLHP.

Jimenez has a history of excellent plate discipline and OBP at pretty much every stop in the minors. His MLB numbers to date are totally out of line with his minor league numbers. It’s why I think there’s a pretty good looking bat there. If his plate discipline returns even a bit that’s a pretty interesting player.

I don't think Horwitz' concrete cleats are an absolute dealbreaker.

But as we've seen with Spencer running into a couple of outs over the last week, his higher OBP in the leadoff spot comes with the cost of some downsides - fewer stolen bases, less going 1st to 3rd, harder to score from 2nd, harder to score via SFs, restricting the advancement of runners behind him, etc.

Does it say anything that in the absence of Springer & Varsho, that Schneider & management start Loperfido in CF over Lukes?

No guarantee of Jimenez plate discipline with human umps and biases

No guarantees of anything but his plate discipline numbers predate AAA.

Jimenez has flashed some power in the MLB.

That may be a point on his side to keep pitchers honest enough to allow him to take some walks if he returns to that mindset.

The reliever revolving door is back in operation. The Jays have claimed Dillon Tate off waivers and optioned him to Buffalo.

That was some play by Jimenez.

The defensive metrics are starting to turn to the good for Jimenez as well.

The Jays have claimed Dillon Tate off waivers and optioned him to Buffalo.

Tate has 4+ years of service time and a 1.5 million salary for the year.

Presumably the bean counters did the math via the luxury tax threshold and feel comfortable enough that there's breathing room to take on a non-minimum salary for the final month.

Pre-2023 Tate had some decent reliever seasons, but with some pretty pedestrian K rates.

Petey, Tampa has a $9.5 million club option for Brandon Lowe ($10.5 salary/$1 million buyout) next season and another at $11 million for 2026. They will either pay him or trade him at that price.

Tate seems a decent risk to take, under control for 2025, making $1.5 this year arbitration for next coming off an injured 2023 and a barely there 2024. Lifetime 9 saves, 4 blown, 29 holds. So 38 saves/holds vs 4 blown - a damn fine 90.5% conversion rate (Rivera territory). 37% inherited runners scoring (meh) hurt by a 50% rate this year (8 of 16 scored) as he recovers from missing 2023.

He did pitch a bit in 2023 - 10 2/3 IP over 3 levels 21 H 18 ER - but clearly wasn't ready. He is well worth the risk, as the Jays try to reset the pen for 2025.

As to the budget - Cot's has them in good shape - $3,432,627 under the luxury tax. Quite a bit of info there on how the trades worked out cash wise. Includes various $50k fees for waiver claims and waivers losses (you keep the $50k if you lose a guy on waivers - Mitch White & Wes Parsons got the Jays those fees). Examples: Turner the Jays paid Seattle $2 mil to take him after paying him $8.6 mil before that so his net cost was $10.6 mil to the Jays for 0.4 bWAR and RJ Schreck (hitting 288/406/600 in New Hampshire right now). Not great, but not a disaster. Kiermaier cost them a total of $8.66 mil ($1.66 to Dodgers) for 0.8 bWAR and Ryan Yarbrough ($1.3 mil paid by Jays). So those 2, the most expensive ML free agents the Jays signed I think this past winter, cost $19.26 mil plus $1.3 for the guy they took to dump KK so $20.56 mil for 1.2 bWAR plus whatever Yarbrough provides (0.3 before today) plus a prospect in RJ Schreck. Not great, but not horrid either.

Vladdy OPS

June .968
July 1.113
August 1.127
Sept. _____?

Thanks hypobole. The free agent list for '25 I was looking at had Brandon Lowe as a free agent.

Tate was drafted 4th overall by Texas in 2015.
He was traded to the Yankees with Erik Swanson for Carlos Beltran. (Beltran brought over advanced pitch prediction which culminated in the trash cash scandal.)
Tate was then traded to Baltimore as the main piece for Zack Britton.

Definitively an upgrade from Pop. Tate will still have an option next year.
He's mostly sinker and it's only 93mph, but he gets tons of ground ball.
He compliments it with a 79mph sweeper and an 84 changeup.

Tate lost a lot of velo after being drafted.
The Yankees tried everything they could to help him regain that velo but without success.
He missed 23 because of a flexor strain.  It seems like he just rehabbed it without any surgery.

I consider Tate part of the huge tryout roster. 1 option is good but how much will he be paid next year is important IMO.

Will the Jays be looking for a new closer this winter? Jordan Romano had surgery for an elbow impingement in July but it's far from certain that he'll be 100 % next year. Chad Green appears more suited to a setup role. I'd like to see someone in that role who can really throw gas.( And knows where the ball is going)

I wouldn't say Tate is an upgrade on anyone on the roster right now. Maybe they can unlock something, but he has lost velocity and effectiveness. Pretty much getting first rounder second chance.

I'm thinking Davis Schneider wont be on this team next year unless he kills it in winter ball and the spring.

At 2B he has to beat out Wagner, Horwitz and Jimenez. In LF he has Loperfido, Barger, Lukes with Berroa, Clase and Roden right behind him. All play better D. That assumes the Jays dont get a bigger bat for LF.

Clement would be on the bench as a super sub.

Of course Bo could get traded, moving Jimenez/Clement to SS. Maybe a RH 2B job is open. But he is going have to hit LHP better than Wagner/Horwitz can.
Cant r

I've never particularly loved Romano as a closer. He was good but never a top tier guy. He's probably best bet for closer next year but would be good if Jays could bring in another late inning guy to compete.

I have no idea why Schneider is still up. It seems cruel at this point. Since July 1st, he has a 22 WRC+ and - 0.8 WAR. He's slugging .170. Since June 1, he's been the worst player in baseball with 200 PAs (-1 WAR) and its getting worse! Since August 1, he has a - 30 WRC. It isn't fair to him and it isn't fair to other players. He needs everyday abs. Send him down to Buffalo, let him work on what he needs to work on and give his ABs to someone more deserving.

Plausible Best Lineups:

Using This Year's Stats Only:

* 1. 1B Horwitz 294pa, 120wrc+, 2.7war/650pa
* 2. DH Guerrero 594pa, 167wrc+, 5.3war/650pa
* 3. SS Jimenez 154pa, 103wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
* 4. CF Varsho 484pa, 101wrc+, 4.4war/650pa
* 5. 3B Clement 361pa, 97wrc+, 3.1war/650pa
* 6. RF Springer 533pa, 96wrc+, 1.5war/650pa
* 7. C Kirk 307pa, 88wrc+, 4.7war/650pa
* 8. LF Loperfido 209pa, 81wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
* 9. 2B Schneider 392pa, 80wrc+, 0.5war/650pa

* X. OF Lukes 14pa, 262wrc+, 13.9war/650pa
* X. IF Wagner 60pa, 160wrc+, 5.4war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 168pa, 77wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette 331pa, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650pa
* X. C Serven 57pa, 48wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650pa
* X. OF Berroa 41pa, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650pa
* X. IF DeLosSantos 12pa, 50wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Clase 43pa, 33wrc+, -1.5war/650pa

Obviously would be tempted to slot Wagner in the starting lineup, though with his high babip in a tiny sample I'll wait. Barger slowly but surely recovering from his awful start and I'll bet he'll pass both Loperfido and Schneider soon enough, while being a year younger than both. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Lukes outperform Loperfio and Schneider on a consistent basis. And obviously a healthy Bo should really be in the lineup too. So 4 of those bench guys might plausibly deserve to be starting.



Using Past 1 Calendar Year stats...

* 1. 1B Horwitz 328pa, 119wrc+, 2.6war/650pa
* 2. DH Guerrero 702pa, 163wrc+, 4.8war/650pa
* 3. SS Jimenez 154pa, 103wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
* 4. CF Varsho 567pa, 101wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
* 5. RF Springer 653pa, 98wrc+, 1.5war/650pa
* 6. 3B Clement 388pa, 96wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* 7. C Kirk 396pa, 90wrc+, 4.4war/650pa
* 8. 2B Schneider 471pa, 84wrc+ 0.8war/650pa
* 9. LF Loperfido 209pa, 81wrc+, 0.9war/650pa

* X. OF Lukes 15pa, 238wrc+, 13.0war/650pa
* X. IF Wagner 60pa, 160wrc+, 5.4war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 168pa, 77wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette 426pa, 75wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
* X. C Serven 57pa, 48wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650pa
* X. OF Berroa 41pa, 61wrc+, 3.2war/650pa
* X. IF DeLosSantos 12pa, 50wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Clase 43pa, 33wrc+, -1.5war/650pa

Exact same comments as above.



Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. 1B Horwitz 116wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* 2. 3B Guerrero 150wrc+, 4.7war/650pa
* 3. SS Bichette 113wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* 4. C Kirk 112wrc+, 5.3war/650pa
* 5. RF Springer 110wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
* 6. CF Varsho 105wrc+, 3.6war/650pa
* 7. 2B Wagner 104wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* 8. LF Schneider 103wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* 9. DH Barger 98wrc+, 1.8war/650pa

* X. OF Lukes 103wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF Clement 98wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* X. IF Jimenez 94wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* X. OF Loperfido 87wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. C Serven 58wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* X. IF Martinez 93wrc+, 1.6war/650pa
* X. OF Clase 77wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Berroa 75wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF DeLosSantos 72wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. C Raposo 66wrc+, 0.0war/650pa


And in the projections, all of Bichette, Wagner, and at least one if not both of Barger and Lukes move into the starting lineup, though Clement is still right there with them too.

At this point, going forward, I probably see bothh Schneider and Loperfido on the outs, though i wouldn't necessarily completely give up on them. I'd want both of the younger Barger and Jimenez in the starting lineup for sure.

I like Lukes and Clement as good veteran part time bench guys with good gloves at multiple positions and who you have no fear of slotting in the lineup on any given day.....but at the same time, maybe it would be a better idea to give that playing time to the likes of the younger Schneider/Loperfido/Roden/Berroa/Orelvis/McAdoo/Clase group instead.

Green has pitched very well all year but not yesterday.

The pen with Romano, Green, Cabrera, Little, Swanson. Cabrera was very good May, June, July and August. Green good all year. Romano and Swanson have pitched V well in prior years. Little has been good June, July and August especially for a guy that only pitched 1 game in prior seasons. So 5 good candidates for 2025.

Pop has been bad all year so he has not earned a spot for next year. Nobody else has either. Getting 2 more relievers should not be hard.

Could be a quiet off season other than Vlad/Bo.

Romano is making almost 8M .
I don't see an arbitration raise following this year, but it's still a bit much.
Green is making 10.5M next year.

Credit where credit is due - despite Green's bad inning, his ERA has been no higher than 2.25 since April 15. While he does have losses, this was his first blown save (16 for 16 before yesterday). This was his first time giving up more than 1 earned run all year. He's buoyed by a 93.4% LOB rate, of course. But he's gotten out of trouble almost every time.

Swanson has shown signs of life with a 3.21 ERA in the 2nd half. His splitter has been much, much better.

Pop somehow has an xERA of 4.41. He had his lowest OPS against in August (.639), only gave up 1 HR, but had a 7.27 ERA. His May through July were so abysmal though that he's lucky to still be getting a shot. Lefties have an .887 OPS against him, and he's faced almost as many lefties as righties (.628 OPS).

Little has a 3.98 xERA and 3.46 xFIP. He needs to be treated as a LOOGY more. Lefties have a .513 OPS against him; righties an .891. But he's faced more righties than lefties.

Cabrera goes between periods of shaky and not shaky his entire career. He's serviceable and equally average against lefties and righties. Just hard to trust.

I don't think we should have moved Pearson. It's not the end of the world, and he was the definition of inconsistent, but that curveball showed promise, and all of his pitches are grading out better in Chicago. 3.24 SIERA. I tend to believe there were behind the scenes reason for the move. Didn't strike me as the most mature guy, but that's conjecture.

Yarbrough's been great for us, but having a BABIP 100 points lower than his career average isn't sustainable. Perfectly fine as a mop up guy. Lefties with a .399 OPS against this year.

Burr has been perfectly fine. Putting up an 0.3 fWAR even with bad luck. Most importantly, someone in the bullpen not giving up home runs at absurd rates.

Nance has reverse career splits - .581 OPS vs lefties, .874 OPS vs righties (yikes). This has been the same for him through the minors. I sure hope someone notices, since they seem to keep throwing him in against a lot more righties.

Going into next year, I expect Romano, Green, Swanson to all be there, though that makes for a pricy bullpen as is. Little deserves a LOOGY spot. Would be completely fine upgrading anywhere else though. There's a lot of good middle relief arms headed to market.

Tate is like Pop.  He can handle right handed hitters.  Pop's problem is the homeruns and the walks. 
Having options is very important for relievers. Sometimes a guy needs weeks to figure things out.
That's why they dumped Pearson. That's why Mayza is gone but Swanson is still around.
A closer, like Romano is able to handle the lefties.  Same with Green and Swanson.
Most middle relievers have splits, that's the difference.  You use those guys in the 6th and maybe the 7th when it's early to pinch hit.
Burr is also good against right handed hitters. He's got a very good slider.
Nance has average slider and very good curve. He uses the curve only against lefties which explains the splits.
It seems like the Jays want him to use the curve against right handed hitters more.
I saw his slider get hammered a few times too many already.

Pearson has done better with the Cubs, but it's very early.
They moved him to the other side of the rubber and they use him as a 2 inning guy pitching on 3 days of rest.

For those who enjoy painful records - the White Sox have a pitcher who is 0-10, the most losses without a win ever was Terry Felton in 1982 for the Twins at 0-13 (lifetime he was 0-16). Michael Soroka who sadly is on the IL right now (15 day) but is rehabbing (2 shutout innings in 2 appearances) so hopefully gets a shot at history.

The White Sox are 31-107 so have a real shot at the 120 loss mark set by the '62 Mets with 24 games to go. A 12-12 record lets those '62 Mets hold onto the record for losses, but I can't imagine the ChiSox have that in them. Their current .223 winning percentage is the worst since the 1800's (4 teams did worse, from the infamous Cleveland Spiders of 1899 who went 20-134, the 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenys 23-113, and 1889 Louisville Colonels who were 27-111, the only teams sub 200 win%; the 1897 St. Louis Browns were at 221 with a 29-102 record). For the 1901-now era (AL & NL) the worst ever was the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics who went 36-117 2 years after being in the World Series (Connie Mack sold off his best players after that WS loss). To reach a 234 win% and have the worst winning percentage since the 1899 Spiders the Sox need to be 37-125 in the end. So a 6-18 record would do it (250 win%, better than they've done to this point). It would give them a 228 win%. A 35-127 record would put them as the 4th worst ever (just below those 1897 Browns) or a 4-20 record (hard, but they could do it). Going 0-24 would put them at 31-131 or a 191 win% for the 3rd worst of all time. Unlikely, but damn it'd be fun to see from a car crash POV.

Gotta get this quiz in this thread.

Since 1901 only 1 time has a player won the AL batting title without hitting a HR. Who?

Rod Carew?

Batting title no HR's? First thought is a very, very old timer like Ty Cobb but he won the triple crown a few times. I'm going to guess someone more recent like Tony Gwynn then.

Dang, was wrong - Gwynn had at least 1 HR every year of his career. 4 times just 1 HR. His lowest was 3 in 1996 when winning a batting title with a 353 average. Huh, never K'ed more than 40 times in a season - Loperfido is at 30 in just 91 PA.

Rod Carew.

If I was a Detroit Tigers fan I would be upset that the team sold at the deadline because unlike the Jays they were in it still. TB selling and winning the trade deadline does not surprise me.

The AL Central is still up for grabs. KC is dropping.

Both the NL & AL have a lot of teams bunched together as low odd contenders but with 4 weeks to go someone could get hot.

Yeah, Rod Carew in 1972 was the only AL batting champ without a HR since 1901. Happened twice in the NL, the last time in 1918.

I can't believe Rod Carew - or anyone - won a batting title without a HR.  Love that about this game.  
I'm 'pulling' for the Sox to achieve a bunch of historical lowlights for that reason.  It's historical!

Schneider not getting demoted has to be to preserve an option year? 

As others have noted throughout this thread, those option years are critical for the mix and match supporting cast of players.
Lukes getting playing time really seems to be a reward for a guy in a depth role.  I know it means say, two weeks less playing time for prospects.  
AAAA types in Buffalo see him playing in TO.  That has intangible value.   Or maybe it's just as simple as a verbal agreement?  sign with us, and we promise SOME playing time in the bigs? 

Plus, the kids seem like secondary players on a good team - does anyone scream 'starter'?  These are part-time players, guys whose value is maximized in a platoon scenario. 

That trivia question got me thinking - how high is the highest average without a HR? In MLB history over 100+ PA it is Tetelo Vargas in 1943 (NYC negro league) at 471, 200+ PA: Willie Keeler 1897 Baltimore 424 in 618 PA. 1947-now Artie Wilson (1948 BBB Negro Leagues) 435 in 130 PA, but the top non-Negro League player since 1947 was a Blue Jay (!!!) in 135 PA hitting 363. I'll leave that to see if anyone can guess him. 200+ PA is Miguel Dilone in 1980 for Cleveland hitting 341 in 566 PA. The most PA without a HR for a Blue Jay was in 1991 over 485 PA with a 234/274/288 line (ick) but he would play for 4 more seasons. So 2 good Jays trivia there on low HR totals. Neither an oddball who should be that hard to guess. Neither an All-Star but both solid players around 10 WAR lifetime.

Fun fact: Rod Carew had 20 more career triples than home runs. He was just great at hitting them where they ain't.

Without looking it up, I'd guess Manny Lee for the '91 Jay. I know he played prior to 91, but the question just said, 'played for 4 more seasons', so I assume they could have played before '91 as well.

I was going to guess Alfredo Griffin for 91, but wasn't he the "happened to be there" All-Star?

If you really want to scratch your head - in 1974 Carew put up a 152 wRC+ while only hitting 3 HRs. That takes some doing. Carew was one of the true unicorns in baseball.

Good one mathesond - it was Manuel Lee. He ended with 9.7 bWAR amazingly. Just 19 HR lifetime, but just 3 seasons had 0 - his rookie season in '85 (43 PA), his final season in 1995 (1-1 with a single and run scored, after scoring that run he came out of the game - guessing he was hurt and never played in the majors again - 12 games in St Louis minors trying to rehab I'm guessing but it didn't work out). Pretty good career for a guy who never had a 700 OPS (outside of that 1 for 1 season).

And yes, it was Alfredo Griffin who was the accidental All-Star in 1984 (with a 48 OPS+). His best year with 0 HR was in 1989 with the Dodgers, 247 avg, 72 OPS+. Amazing to get a 18 year career with just 3.1 bWAR but he did it.

"Amazing to get a 18 year career with just 3.1 bWAR but he did it."

...And ended up with 4 World Series rings! (88 LAD, 92-3 Jays, and 02 as a coach with the Angels. He was 1B coach for 21 years: 2 with the Jays, and 19 with the Angels. Add that half-ROY award, and he did a hell of a lot without much of a bat.