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A blink ago we were back in school
Smoking by the gym door
Practicing our rock star attitudes


And now we're going down.


Joey Votto didn't get the fairytale ending he - and all of us, surely - was hoping for. Wearing number 19, a numeral that means an awful lot to this franchise, for his home team. Coming up with some big hits in a pennant race or a post-season game. Well, not everyone gets to go out like Ted Williams or Derek Jeter. Votto was ejected from his last game in the majors. That's different.

It might even be appropriate. Joey Votto wasn't like the other players. It's not that he was quirky or eccentric, not at all (although the game can always use a few of those guys as well.) It's more the company he kept - other baseball players. Baseball players in general are not very interesting people. Well, they're all jocks. More than that, they're all elite jocks, very young men who have dedicated most of their short lives to mastering this silly game and little else. Joey Votto was different, if only by seeming to be a regular human being, with some perspective about himself, his job, and what it all meant in the grand scheme of things. And a wonderful sense of humour about it all.

And a very great player, who should be bound for Cooperstown, although his counting numbers will probably make him wait a year or three (all those walks don't help him here!)

Random notes....

Erik Swanson had actually been pitching just fine since returning to the majors a little more than a month ago - he'd allowed just two runs in 11 appearances. Both runs came on solo homers. He'd also been used almost entirely in non-pressure situations, most often in blowouts, with his team trailing. Last night was the first time he came into a game with the score tied since early May.

Are the Blue Jays trying to figure out which infield configuration they prefer? Do we like Guerrero at third base or Horwitz at second base? They can't both play first base, obviously. Complicating the situation is the arrival of Will Wagner, who sure looks like a major league hitter to me, and whose best position is probably second base (which is why he had no future in Houston.) I can conceive of a future with Guerrero at third and Wagner at second, but I'd want someone like Ozzie Smith in between them at short. What, Ozzie's retired?

In my lament for the 2012 team, I noted that 17 men had more than 100 Plate Appearances for the 2012 Blue Jays, and that just three of them - Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and David Cooper (!) - managed an OPS+ better than 100. Well, they're doing it again. Now that Turner and Kiner-Falefa have been sent on their way, the Jays are left with just Guerrero and Horwitz who seem certain to end up with an OPS+ better than 100. Clement and Jimenez would also make it if the season ended today. But it doesn't, and I will be quite surprised if both are still be above 100 when it's over. I suppose Springer and Varsho also have a fighting chance.

I expected Yarbrough to be tonight's starter - this would be Bassitt's normal turn, but they've decided to bump the entire rotation back a day. He may end up as the bulk guy, once the Angels beat up on Ryan Burr.

Matchups

Thu 22 Aug - Canning (4-11, 5.41) vs Burr (0-1, 5.40)
Fri 23 Aug - TBD vs Bassitt (9-12, 4.34)
Sat 24 Aug - Fulmer (0-4, 4.24) vs Francis (6-3, 4.38)
Sun 25 Aug - Anderson (10-11, 3.46) vs Gausman (11-9, 4.24)
Angels at Toronto, August 22-25 | 137 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Glevin - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#451712) #
I am 100% fine with bumping guys back. These games don't matter and since 2021, Berrios, Gausman, and Bassit are 5, 6, and 9 in total innings pitched. That's a lot of wear and tear.
Ducey - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#451713) #
The Vlad, Horwitz, Wagner problem will only be a problem until the 2025 trade deadline - at the latest.

If they were going to keep Vlad, why would they have not resigned other guys to hang around - like Teo, or Jansen, or Chapman, or Lourdes, or Kikuchi?

Signing Vlad and surrounding him with a bunch of kids makes little sense.

Anyway, I like Wagner, but at some point people will start wondering if he can be a MLB'er if he doesnt hit for power.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#451718) #
Not every MLBer has to be a power hitter. That's one of the biggest misconceptions in baseball these days. I don't want a team that just has players hitting 25 homers with 170 strikeouts... a couple of those are find if the also play good D and/or steal 20 bases too.

I'm a little surprised the club didn't call up a fresh arm for this series... Swanson clearly (still) doesn't have it.
Nigel - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#451719) #
Totally agree Marc - my biggest complaint about Mattingly & Co.'s inane "do damage" schtick is how imbalanced it is and will make your lineup. Do damage/grip it and rip it/25 HRs and 200ks - however you want to define it may well be the right call for a few members of your team but I think is terrible advice for others such as Wagner or Kirk. Line-up balance isn't just about L/R its also about approaches. The Jays could use so more power but they could also use some more "put the ball successfully in play".
scottt - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#451721) #
Over 40% of runs are scored via homeruns so it's hard to compete if the team is 24th in hitting them.Of course, if the players can all hit singles and steal second on the next pitch it doesn't matter.
However, the Jays are 27th at stealing bases.

It's the Angels and the Jays are playing for next year.They normally start 3 lefties. They are starting Burke.
Nigel - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#451723) #
Ernie Clement is going to need that 10/300 contract soon!
Glevin - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#451724) #
Jays and affiliates this time are leading their opponents 23-0.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#451725) #
Clement is having a very fine season for a player who was basically a nobody until late last year. I hope he’s on the roster as a utility player in 2025.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#451726) #
It wouldn’t surprise me if Horwitz had a bit of a breakout season next year, posting around a 130-140 wRC+
Glevin - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#451731) #
I think baseball is in a really bad place of its own design. The expanded playoffs (especially) and payroll tax have created a flood of mediocrity. Is there a single great team this year? Maybe Dodgers and Braves if they aren't so injured. Who is the best team in the AL? Yankees? They're a .580 % team who is only where they are because their top 2 players are having the best offensive duo seasons since Ruth and Gehrig. Look at the trade deadline. Almost no teams added significantly. The Orioles, the best team in the league at the time had a hole at closer, needed another long-term starter and have a system filled with exciting prospects and what did they do? Get a middle reliever and Trevor Rogers? Phillies were best team in baseball and they added a couple of relievers (non dominant types). It's the goal of every team now. Just try to make playoffs and anything can happen. The sad part is that that is the right decision. Trading your prospects to go from a 6% chance of winning the world series to a 7% chance just doesn't make a lot of baseball sense. Similarly, teams don't want to trade their best players. I mean, Tigers should be trading Skubal but who knows, they might be good enough next year to compete for a wildcard because almost everyone is. Baseball teams are generally very smart (maybe 5 teams excluded) so this type of conservative approach is most likely just the norm now.
hypobole - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#451734) #
Didn't see anyone mention Clement's HR. Since Statcast started in 2015 it was the second highest pitch hit for a HR. The highest? Kyle Higashioka in 2022, 4.61 ft from the ground. Clement's was 4.60.

And Clement's take? "I probably shouldn't be swinging at pitches like that one"
Ryan Day - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#451735) #
Ernie Clement can do a pretty good impression of Vlad Sr.
jerjapan - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#451738) #
Agreed Glevin.  MLB took the path other sports take, but what's the point of 162 game seasons these days? 

The sport is diminished nationally by all the mediocrity, even if it keeps more fan bases engaged. 
Nigel - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#451739) #
Ernie has Catalanotto’s Disease. It’s incurable. Whether it’s fatal is a open question.
Nigel - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#451740) #
Saying that the era of elite teams is dead is way too premature. Since 2017 the Dodgers have only had one non CV season with less than 100 wins. They’ve had one of the great teams of all time. I agree that there are now incentives for teams to invest to the level of the mushy middle but the converse is also true - I grew up watching in the 70s and 80s when well over half the teams weren’t even trying and had no hope on Opening Day. Choose your poison.
Marc Hulet - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#451742) #
Ernie is essential the character played by Joaquin Phoenix in Signs "It felt wrong not to swing."
scottt - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#451745) #
Baseball is in a fantastic place.
Having some teams win more games because most of the other teams have stopped trying at the mid mark was horrible.How would being able to predict the World Series winner in March make the 162 schedule more relevant?Mediocrity is not being average. It's being below average.

Two team tanked for a decade to become top contenders.
The Cubs used their prospects to try to put themselves over and barely managed to do it.Nobody remembers them as a great team and they fell back to mediocrity after only a couple of years.The Astros were smarter and have remained a top contender for an entire decade.The problem with the Orioles is the 66M payroll going up to 100M this year.Houston's payroll is 245M. Houston would have extended Corbin Burnes.Even the Cubs' payroll is 226M.
Teams don't trade controllable players just because they are bad. Skubal is making less than 3M.If they really want to trade him, they can probably get a better return in the winter.
This is different from the Angels holding on to Othani when he was a about to become a free agent.

The Phillies don't have a great farm system.
Dombrowski is not known for hoarding prospects.They are already winning their division, so their goal is not to just make the playoffs.
The goal of every contender is to win their division.Detroit hasn't seen the postseason in a while,For them, it would make sense to chase a wild card spot before starting another tear down, even if 3 other teams in their divisions are having good years.
Ducey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#451746) #
Glevin's mediocrity is my parity. Allowing all fan bases to believe their team has a chance is a good thing.

If there is mediocrity, it likely comes from the rash of pitching injuries. Pretty hard to assemble a dominant rotation when a couple of the pitchers are always having surgery.

That, and the exposure of the Umps' strike calling because of technology are the two biggest things of concern in MLB baseball.
metafour - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#451747) #
I don't understand Glevin's take either. I don't think that there is a lack of "great teams"; instead I would argue that the fact that there are fewer terrible teams means that it is simply more difficult for these "great" teams to just sleepwalk their way to 100+ win seasons by kicking the crap out of opponents who have no interest in competing.

I don't see how the new format disqualifies the importance of the regular season either. The MLB postseason has always been littered with "good" teams or teams who just squeaked in getting hot and running through the playoffs. In 2001 the Mariners won an absurd 116 games and got 4-1'd in the playoffs by a 95-win Yankees team. In that same season the Oakland A's won 102 games (second most in the league behind Seattle) and they were eliminated by the Yankees too in the 1st round. So neither of the two "best teams" throughout the season even made the World Series. And the real kicker is that while the Yankees eliminated the two "best" teams, they didn't win either LOL. They lost the World Series to a 92-win Arizona Diamondbacks team.
uglyone - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#451751) #
the thing about Clement (and all hitters really) is that imo it's not wise to ever focus on either bb% or k% alone, but always, always together.

His low bb rate really isn't much of an issue if it continues to be joined with his extremely low k rate.

yeah ernie has the 5th lowest bb% in baseball (min 100pa), but he also has the 2nd lowest k%.

this tells that despite the low walk rate he's clearly not just a hacker up there and that he clearly has a good eye at the plate. he could choose to take more pitches, but that would likely end up increase both his BB and K rates, which might not help his line overall.

one thing about his approach is that he leaves himself subject to the babip gods more than most, so will likely have more extreme hot and cold streaks than most.



jerjapan - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#451754) #
But that 92 D backs team is unique.  The 87 Twins. 

Those stories are not as interesting in the 'everyone makes the playoffs'! era. 

I heard an interesting take on MLB on a 'business of sports' radio broadcast, suggesting that MLB no longer qualifies as a truly 'national' sport - in the way the WS used to be 'must-see TV', but it's the NFL only in that category now, per this show. 

I'm not adverse to the wildcard, but I couldn't even tell a casual observer how the new playoff system works. 

All told, more teams, more playoffs means more $$$, which is all the league really cares about anyway, right?
Baseball, unlike pretty much any other sport I know, is uniquely suited to 'windy lore' and old-timey quirks.  This, to me, is what makes the game special.  Basketball, hockey, MMA, football ... all more 'exciting' to watch.  Baseball is super exciting at times.  What carries me along as a fan in the less exciting moments (most of them) are the stories. 

I don't want that quality lost in the globalized rush to sameness that dominates our era. 

But hey, I'm a luddite.  I like human umpires too. 
Nigel - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#451755) #
Agreed uo - and, in fact, based on his speed, Clement has probably been slightly unlucky with his BABIP this year. However, we won't be talking about this by year end as his BB% is going to explode as he starts to get the Bonds treatment:)
bpoz - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#451757) #
I don't like the off season media hype and try to ignore it. But speculating is fun.

Soto and Vlad in the same lineup could be devastating and incredibly expensive. The NYM have a very rich owner and D Stearn is a successful baseball executive. They should really try to sign Soto this off season. Vlad should wait until Soto signs to figure out his future contract. If too expensive for the Jays then they would most likely trade him to get better than a draft pick. I feel strongly that NYM will be able to meet Vlad's price tag. NYM needs to find a way to make the trade for Vlad work.

This is fun for me. But just speculation.
Ducey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#451759) #
Ernie has more HR (10) than walks (9). That has to be pretty unique.
hypobole - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#451760) #
He did something similar in Buffalo last year. Mid-August he had 10 HR's and 10 K's on the season. He's one unique guy.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#451762) #
The Jays have actually been more interesting to watch since the trade deadline. Positives are Horwitz, Clement and Billy Wagner. Leo Jimenez has shown some power and decent defense and it has been great to see a resurgence from Vlad.
Magpie - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#451763) #
Ernie has more HR (10) than walks (9). That has to be pretty unique.

Certainly uncommon:

George Bell, 1987 (47 HR, 39 BB)
Tony Batista, 2000 (41 HR, 35 BB)
Brad Fullmer, 2000 (32 HR, 30 BB)

Randal Grichuk came close a few years ago. It helps to hit a few homers.
John Northey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#451764) #
Need to put together a good summary of what the Jays budget and commitments for 2025 and beyond are likely to be to figure out what is possible. I am guessing $250 mil is the max for payroll, but wouldn't be shocked if they fall under $200 depending on what they can do this winter in free agency.

Cot's has the Jays about $3 mil under the competitive tax threshold at $233,580,429 with $237 mil as the limit. Current payroll estimate for 2025 is $135.2 mil pre-arbitration guys: Vlad, Romano, Varsho, Kirk, Swanson, Cabrera, Manoah, Clement (net $42.2 mil in 2024, probably 25% higher in '25 so $52.7 mil) and pre-minimum salary guys (many). Some tough choices could be there - do you offer arb to Romano if he is going to be out most of 2025 (free agent post '25) as that is an $8+ mil decision. That puts the Jays at $187.9 mil plus minimum salary guys so pushing $200 mil. That leaves roughly $30-$50 mil for free agency and long term deals. A long term Vlad deal would probably add $5 mil to it (25% on his current puts him around $25 mil, lets guess a long term pushes his AAV to $30 mil - both figures could easily be higher). So there is space in theory to add Soto, but it'd be tight. Easier is adding 1 decent piece (O'Neill, Santander, Bregman, Teoscar, whoever) and a batch of decent pen pieces (closers Clay Holmes, Paul Sewald, Tanner Scott, available plus many setup men - there are always many out there), and maybe bringing back Jansen and/or Kikuchi. There are many, many decent starters on the market so the Jays might double down on the rotation strength and go for a high end one.
pooks137 - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#451765) #
Ernie has Catalanotto’s Disease.

Clement has Stage IV Cat Syndrome.

Frank never put up a BB% anywhere near Ernie's current totals. His lowest was 4.8% early in his career as a Tiger.

Cat finished with a 7.7% career walk rate, which would be a tick below league average present day. He had multiple seasons with double digit walk rates.

Magpie - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#451768) #
Clement has walked in just 2.8% of his Plate Appearances this season (4.1% career) which is truly miniscule. Damaso Garcia and Alfredo Griffin both had seasons below Clement's 2024 walk rate (Griffin in 1984, Garcia in 1980 and 1984-86.) Still, both Garcia and Griffin's career walk rate is higher than Clement's, and it's hard to imagine a lower bar than that.
Gerry - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#451769) #
No Vlad in tonights lineup. No reason yet.
hypobole - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#451770) #
Loperfido has 12 hits as a Jay. None have been doubles, but 3 have been been triples.

Varsho and Loperfido have only 97 hits as Jays this year, but have 10 triples.
The 2017 Jays had 1320 hits, but only 5 triples.

Jays now have 20 triples as a team, just outside the top 10 in MLB. The last time the Jays weren't bottom ten was 2014.
John Northey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#451771) #
Saw an interesting stat on Twitter today - Loperfido did a mechanical change with his lower half on 8/13 and the results have followed since: 421/476/790 for a 1.266 OPS 19.0 K% 251 wRC+. Sweet!

The change was his front foot no longer being used as a timing mechanism. It's firmly planted, making him more balanced. Huh, wonder if the Jay coaches who have been blasted all year did that fix. A good sign. If he can hit then we've got the makings of a good young team for 2025 and beyond with him, Wagner (393/414/500), Jimenez (226/306/396 - 99 OPS+ at SS), and Barger (since his last call-up in late July hitting 186/226/441 - not great but has some promise in the power department). Horwitz still has a 125 OPS+, and Clement a 105 (272/295/437). Schneider a big disappointment this year at 82 OPS+ (200/291/348). Vlad becoming 2021 version again (163 OPS+) and Kirk working his way back up to an 89 OPS+ are promising signs too (Kirk & Vlad still in their age 25 season believe it or not). The trades mid-season look to have been good ones at this point, especially the Kikuchi one (Loperfido, Wagner, and Bloss who has 9 2/3 shutout innings in Buffalo so far, 6 H 5 BB 8 SO). McAdoo is exciting as he is mainly a 3B (desperately needed here) and is hitting 259/385/519 in AA right now at age 22, might be time to move him to AAA and see if he can handle that, but just 16 games here in AA plus 27 in Pittsburgh's AA after 60 in A+ in Pitt - still damn good for IKF (77 OPS+ since traded). Mix in RJ Schreck for Turner (305/397/627 in AA at 23, 2nd pro season, a LF/RF) and I think Atkins did a damn fine job at the deadline dumping guys who weren't helping and wouldn't help in 2025 and beyond for a batch of kids who are looking like they just might form the core of a new strong team going forward. Can't forget speed demon Jonatan Clase in LF (age 22 but hitting poorly in Buffalo so far 209/250/358), but for 1/2 a season of a reliever (Garcia who has allowed 6 ER in 9 IP since traded) one can't complain.

It isn't hard to imagine a 2025 team of ... C: Kirk, 1B: Horwitz, 2B: Wagner, 3B: Barger and/or McAdoo, SS: Jimenez, LF: Loperfido, CF: Varsho, RF: Springer, DH: Vlad UT: Clements (lots of time at 3B), Berroa (4th OF seems to be his future), and a catcher. With Bloss fighting to make the rotation and others trying to earn slots in the pen/as backups/etc. Now, would I like Bo to be healthy and playing instead? Sure. Would I prefer the Jays sign Soto? Hell yes. But this is the baseline right now and it isn't as ugly as it could've been.
Gerry - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#451772) #
Rest day for Vladdy.
John Northey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#451774) #
Didn't notice that Varsho was up to 7 triples this year. 8 Jays have a triple this year.
  • Last year 9 had a triple, Kiermaier led with 6, no one else with over 3.
  • Just 7 with a triple in 2022, led by Springer with 4.
  • 10 had a triple in 2021 (including Tellez!) but no one had more than 2.
  • 2020 had just 3 guys with a triple, Vlad led with 2
  • 2018 was the last 7 triple player (Teoscar Hernandez)
  • 2008 was the last 8 triple player (Alex Rios), with a second at 7 in Joe Inglett.
  • 1993 was the last 9 triple player (Tony Fernandez)
  • 1991 was the last 10 or 11 triples player (Alomar 11, White 10)
  • 1990 saw Tony Fernandez get 17 triples (!!)
  • 1984 had 2 with 15 in Dave Collins (stole 60 too), and Llyod Moseby (39 steals) - 15 different players hit a triple (out of 21 batters used) - only Willie Mays Atkins didn't hit a triple with 20+ PA. It was a very different era
  • Just 2 other times did someone reach 10 triples - 1980 Alfredo Griffin (15), and 1979 (Griffin again with 10).
That was fun to look up - some good memories (I suspect Griffin was thrown out a LOT while getting those triples - by all accounts he was quite smart and a solid player but damn if his baserunning wasn't scary, but fun).
Nigel - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#451775) #
Moving away from Astroturf has been a great thing for the game in many ways. One downside is the reduction in triples and triples may be the most exciting single event in baseball (aside from game winning hits etc.). Once a ball went down the RF line or into the RF/CF gap on Astroturf the game was afoot - particularly in the two KC stadiums of the day
Ducey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#451777) #
Berroa!

Man, Angels starting Drury and have Pillar hitting cleanup. They not allowed to attend the draft?
Magpie - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#451779) #
I suspect Griffin was thrown out a LOT while getting those triples

You probably suspect rightly, at least for 1979, when Griffin made 7 outs at third base. That was his rookie year - he only made 2 outs there in 1980.
Glevin - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#451780) #
Nice win and something had clicked for Loperfido last week or two. Looks like a completely different (and much better) ballplayer.
Gerry - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#451781) #
Great ninth inning.
Gerry - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#451782) #
The Angels are the cure for what ails you.
BlueJayWay - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#451786) #
Wow does this site ever work well.
John Northey - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#451788) #
Now the trick is not to get too excited about beating the poor, poor Angels. Their fans have had a very frustrating time from 2010 to now. 1 playoff series (swept) in spite of having Mike Trout from 2011 to now (and going forward as well), and having Ohtani from 2018 to 2023, and Pujols from 2012-2021. Those are 3 high end HOF'ers (automatic first ballot guys all with cases for 'inner circle') who played on the team together for a few years. Plus other quality players. It makes the wasted Halladay/Delgado years look like nothing.

Wonder if that is the price they are paying for the strong 2002-2009 run (6 playoffs, 1 WS title). Just 3 playoff appearances before that, 1 since with 0 series wins outside of that one 8 year window. At least us Jay fans had both 1985-1993 (2 titles, 5 playoffs) and 2015/16 (2 playoffs, 2 series wins, so close to the WS both times), plus 2020-2023 (3 playoff series, but 0 wins). The Angels do have 8 players who are 25 or younger on their ML roster right now, Jays 8 as well.
BlueJayWay - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#451789) #
I'll try one more time...
About the expanded playoffs and parity: people bemoan the expanded playoffs and the 'mushy middle' etc but I for one don't want to go back to a time where three quarters of the league was basically playing out the string by July. Just not good for business.
I see fans complain about this in other sports, about no great teams and everyone's mediocre. But really, I find it hard to differentiate between that and a league that has a lot of parity. That's just what it looks like, because the average record is .500 and it's a closed system. If everyone's equally good then everyone's kind of around the middle.

I think MLB's in a much better place now, with the pitch clock and other new rules greatly improving the onfield product, and an environment where essentially everyone's either in playoff contention or can plausibly see themselves in a short time with the right moves.
John Northey - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#451790) #
Agreed BlueJayWay - It is fun to get the odd team that is 'WOW', but for the other 29 teams it can suck. The 1950's many talk about as a golden age but check attendance - it sucked. Why? Because nearly every year the Yankees would win. From 1950-1959 the Yankees won the AL 8 of 10 times with 6 WS titles. 1952 is a great example of ugly - Cleveland was 2 out in the end so they had hope, but everyone else in the AL was 14+ games back - with Detroit 45 games behind. 1953 saw Cleveland 8 1/2 back in 2nd, 3 teams 40+ back (Detroit, A's, and Browns). 1954 Cleveland finally won the AL (took 111 wins, but they did it) Yankees 2nd, everyone else 17+ behind, with 5 teams 40+ behind. The A's in the 50's were within 20 games just twice (both 10+ behind) 4 times 40+ behind. What a shock they moved to KC during that time from Philly. The A's first 5 years in KC they had 900k+ in attendance (very good for that timeframe) but couldn't maintain it.

The 90's saw a similar thing here in the AL East. Post strike from 1995-2007 the Yankees won the division all but 3 times (getting the lone wild card each of those 3 times). 7 of those years the Red Sox either won the East (3 times) or the wild card (4 times). Our poor Jays finished 2nd or 3rd all but 3 of those years (4th or 5th those 3 times) and went from 2.8 mil fans to a low of 1.6 in 2002 before recovering to 2.36 in 2007 (after their 2nd place 2006). Only once in that stretch did the Jays come within 10 games (4 1/2 in 2000 with just 83 wins). IIRC the TV ratings dropped to under 100k per game at one point, which helped lead to Rogers buying the team and then putting some cash into it. During the 1995-1997 stretch the O's were good, made the playoffs twice, then fell apart (fired Gillick & Davy Johnson) and from 1998-2011 were 10+ behind EVERY year seeing attendance drop from 3.7 mil to 1.7 mil. They have yet to get back to the 3 mil mark (Jays reached it in 2016/17/23) or even to 2.5 million (Jays in 13/15/22 likely to come close this year with 16 home dates left and just barely under 300k shy now just need 19k per game to reach it - the O's won't reach it, needing nearly 700k more fans in 15 games or 46.7k per game when 45k is the most they've had at home all year). I won't waste time with the Rays (only hit 2 mil their first season, 1.5 last reached in 2013 - sad that such a great team has been wasted on those fans - don't talk about their park, Exhibition Stadium was a frozen nightmare but we packed it here with over 2 mil a year).

Dominating teams hurt MLB. Fans stop caring if they know who is going to win each year. You need hope. We can live with a 1-2 year rebuild with exciting young players ala Vlad & Bo in '19, Loperfido, Wagner, Barger (tonight at least), Horwitz, have all given us fun in this nightmare season. Far more fun than the long gone vets did. And who can't cheer on Berroa? Yariel Rodríguez gives me hope for the rotation too as does his ERA+ twin Bowden Francis (both at 92) - neither are young (27 & 28 respectively) but fun to cheer for still. Kind of surprised when I looked and saw 0 pitchers under 26 have pitched in the majors for the Jays this year. Lets hope 23 year old Jake Bloss develops - this team needs some kid power in the rotation (just 9 2/3 IP in 3 starts scares me a bit even if he has 0 runs given up). Hmmm... maybe the Jays will go blow a fortune on another starter this winter.
Glevin - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#451792) #
Could not disagree more. The problem is that baseball is not like other sports and should not try to be like them. There are 162 games in a season and the difference between teams is pretty small so you need that many games to let the cream rise and that was baseball's beauty. In the NBA the best teams almost always win. In baseball, the best teams do not win at high rates so in the NBA the champion is always going to be one of the best teams. In baseball, it isn't. Baseball was never about playoffs. It was about the grind of the season. Playing everyday all year. Other sports are all about the playoffs. If so many teams make the playoffs and the playoffs are a fluke, who cares about the regular season? And the regular season has been massively devalued and baseball will see the problem with this over time. Making the playoffs will only be exciting for a bit. Imagine the excitement Leafs fans have when they get the 4th seed. It doesn't matter. Why play 162 games? Move it to 80 like other sports. (they won't because of money but there really isn't any reason to have a long season anymore.)

And another strong disagree. Dominant teams are great for the game. It's what people talk about for decades. Other fans hate them, people turn into watch just to see them play etc...I'm not saying to go back to two playoff teams or something, but MLB has gone so far in the other direction that teams don't even try to win anymore. Just make the playoffs and then it's a coin flip. People deride the Jays for this mentality but it's pretty much every team because this is what baseball has incentivized. Also, it doesn't actually make better races. It just means more teams can hang around the playoffs for a few weeks and maybe sell a few extra tickets and pretend they are contending. I mean, we're also not even in September and the playoffs are almost set. There are only two teams who are outside the playoffs who are within 5 games of making the playoffs. The last month of the regular season is going to be extremely boring. If there were fewer teams in, there would actually be playoff races.

Despite all this talk about teams not being able to compete like other sports, baseball actually has had the most unique champions. I love the pitch clock and can't wait for robot umps but baseball's biggest problem is that its owners don't actually like baseball and only care about making money so they're always trying to turn it into other sports to make a little more money. How many owners are passionate about baseball? Used to be a bunch. Now, I have no idea. What baseball is losing in excitement, it is making up for in putting ads on everything and promoting gambling so at least we have that.
scottt - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#451793) #
The playoffs are like the Olympics. It's not always the best athlete who gets the gold medal. Every sport has its own world championship but some world champions never get the gold at the Olympics.
The World Series doesn't necessary crown the best team. It crowns the team that defies the odds and come out of the gauntlet triumphant.
This makes the playoffs an over the top spectacle, like the Olympics. If it was just about celebrating the best team, it would be boring.

The best teams have the highest odds of winning it all. The division winners have the best seeds, extra rest, home advantage, etc.This creates a near perfect combination of great playoffs as well as long and meaningful regular season. There's a huge advantage to winning the division and the Yankees and Orioles could be fighting it out until the very last series. 
It's absurd to say that the Jays aren't trying to win. They spent over the luxury tax. Trying to win doesn't mean sacrificing the future. The Yankees, Dodgers and Astros are not doing that.The Media is biased towards a few teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees and expect the other teams to contend only once a decade. People lacking critical judgement echo that sentiment. It's an incoherent discourse.

The Angels stand out as one of the poorly run franchise, but their bullpen isn't terrible.Contreras gave up back to back home runs but had 15 outings without giving up a home run at that point.
soupman - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#451794) #
Baseball doesn't celebrate the best record nearly enough. Here is my 3 Step plan to make baseball better at nominal expense:

Step 1a: Balance the schedule to make the best record a more fair and meaningful title. Cost: increased carbon emissions/travel budgets/sleep deficits.

Step 2: New Trophy for best record. Cost: Negligible.

Step 3: Another thing they can borrow from the NBA is in-season tournaments. These can be league games that 'count' for other trophies. Since Leagues and Divisions are otherwise meaningless with a balanced schedule maybe you have divisions this way - so you can crown 'division' champs without having to ruin the fairness of the overall table. This gives all teams something to play for throughout the year. You can have this lead to playoff berths.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#451795) #
Sorry, Glevin, but I have to agree with Blue Jay Way and John Northey. Having more teams make the playoffs is more fun for the fans, and keeps their interest for the full season. Do you want to watch your team if they're out of it by July? Also, when there are fewer teams making the playoffs, it is the richer, big market teams who load up and get in year after year.
Gerry - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#451796) #
Springer gets the day off today so Serven is the oldest position player at 29, followed by Clement at 28.
BlueMonday - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#451797) #
Step 2: New Trophy for best record. Cost: Negligible.

Bring on the curse of the President’s trophy!
Nigel - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#451799) #
I have been watching my favourite team even though they were out of it by June:).
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#451800) #
More teams competing is better for growing the sport with new fans which leads to more fans, interest, money, etc.

Less teams competing is better for pleasing traditional fans less open minded which is a shrinking audience and leads to the opposite.
SK in NJ - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#451801) #
I disagree with Glevin as well. Since the start of 2023 (per Sports Business Journal), MLB is seeing significant growth in attendance, national TV viewership, and younger people consuming the sport. The rule changes likely play a bigger part in that than the expanded playoff format, but the latter is giving more teams an opportunity to play meaningful baseball later in the season and that’s going to help maintain interest over a long season. The marathon and grind of 162 followed by only the best of the best making the playoffs is simply not going to work in 2024-beyond if you want to grow the game. Just as if the NBA implemented that, they’d see business drop as well. As a Jays fan I certainly don’t want to go back to the fewer playoff spot days. MLB is actually in a very good spot. Only issue is fixing their regional TV deals, but otherwise everything they’ve done in the past 5 years or so has worked. They can still do more, but making the playoffs more difficult to make with fewer teams would set them back, not forward.
John Northey - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#451802) #
For purists you can always go to a high school or house league game - pitchers still hit there as they often are the best player on their team.

As for MLB, they need to keep it fun and fast - finding ways to keep starting pitchers in games longer is a great idea (6 IP or 4 runs or 100 pitches is a reasonable start, with the injury rule there with automatic IL stint), and reducing in-inning changes is also a great idea (first the 3 batter rule, I'd like a 'in until they give up a run or have a full inning pitched' rule). Need more encouragement for running too - not sure how to do that, bigger bases, fewer tosses to 1B helped - 10 teams with 100+ SB this year (4 over 150) vs 8 in 2022 (max 128). Probably the SB thing needs to be left alone for a couple more years as players shift into the system and figure it out. 13 in 2010 had 100+ SB (max 172 - 2 teams have more already this year).

This century saw the Mets get 200 in 2007 as the peak, with Tampa in 2009 at 194 next, Milwaukee 2016 181, then 5 more in the 170's. Best for the Jays was 156 in 2001 with 2 guys over 30 (Cruz, Mondesi) and another with 27 (Stewart). All time best Jays was 1984 with 193. 20 times the Jays stole 100+, this year won't join them (59 so far).
Nigel - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#451803) #
Given his age it’s hard to predict more than 3 Cy Young’s for Francis’ career.
mathesond - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#451804) #
I dunno, Nigel, Randy Johnson was 35 when he won the first of 4 straight...
Nigel - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#451805) #
Francis does have the RJ stache so four it is.
Nigel - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#451807) #
Loperfido definitely gives off some Varsho vibes. For the good and the bad.
mathesond - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#451808) #
At least they're exciting vibes. Much better TV than, say, Kendrys Morales or Brad Fullmer. Or the 1996 team, for that matter.
Michael - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#451809) #
I do like that they let Francis keep pitching. In addition to seeing who can do what, it does feel like it might be worth letting some of the starters pitch a few more pitches to see who can go deep or what not. One way of improving the bullpen next year would be for the average starter to pitch an extra 10 pitches or so and cut down on the number of innings the bullpen needs to cover.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#451810) #
A fun couple of games! It’s nice to be treated to some hope for a change.

Is that 4 or 5 straight great starts for Francis? I think it’s 2 runs in his last 29 in innings? Simply amazing.
scottt - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#451811) #
The improvement with Francis is pretty extreme.Consider that he gave up 7 runs in his first start to end up with an ERA of 11.85.His second start was worse.
Then he because the guy who pitches the 9th inning in losses and blow outs.He only got the 5th starter job back once Kikuchi was traded.Now he follows the American League Player of the week with a near no-hitter.
Somebody deserves some credit somewhere.
Glevin - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#451812) #
Tellez for Richards and Francis is one hell of a trade. Really liking the way Loperfido is playing. This team is so much more enjoyable to watch win or lose right now.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#451813) #
If Francis has evolved into a strong starting pitcher, it would be huge for the Blue Jays in 2025. The rotation would pretty much be set, with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Francis and Yariel. Yesavage and Manoah could end up being a factor at some point during the season. The per unit cost of the rotation would be lower than in 2024.

So what should the priorities be for the offseason?

1. Extend Vladdy
2. Add a quality third baseman
3. Rebuild the bullpen
4. Add quality starting pitching depth
5. Add another big thumper bat

Maybe there will be a way to trade Springer (possibly with prospects to facilitate the trade) to get some or most of that salary obligation off the books.
John Northey - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#451814) #
Extend Vlad has to be #1, #2 is fix the pen (always a crapshoot though), #3 is figure out 3B (Clements & Vlad & Barger or sign someone), #4 is LF/DH (tons of in house options in Loperfido, Schneider, Barger, Berroa, Clase, Roden, and RJ Schreck now forcing his way into the conversation).

Heck, McAdoo is forcing his way into the 3B/OF situation too with his 306/391/535 line for all of 2024 (894 OPS in NH so not slacking off post-trade).

Right now, depending what scouts and advanced analytics say, I'd be tempted to say 'screw it' and let the kids take over in 2025 at 3B, LF and DH. Focus on trades/free agency for bullpen help and get more AAAA pitchers for AAA backups.

Rotation for 2025? Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt all dead locks. 4/5 being Rodriguez, Francis, with others fighting for #6/7/8 in Rafael Sánchez (2.28 ERA in AA over 23 2/3 IP in 4 starts), Jake Bloss (0 R in 9 2/3 IP in 3 starts with Buffalo), and by mid-season hopefully Alek Manoah. Seems Francis picked up/drastically improved a pitch in his last stint in AAA and boy is it paying off. Something clearly changed with that last minor league trip. His first ML stint this year saw a 8.59 ERA over 14 2/3 IP (yuck), 2nd a 4.13 ERA over 24 IP (much better), and this one 33 IP 1.91 ERA (2 starts vs O's, 2 vs Angels, 1 vs Cubs, 1 relief vs Yankees). 11 IP 4.09 ERA vs Yankees & O's.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#451816) #
Are the Blue Jays really going to “run it back” with 550-650 PA with Springer next year? He’s currently at 500+ PA and 1.0 fWAR.

It seems like the major problem next year could be many position players on the team posting around 0-2 WAR. Where are the 4+ WAR players going to come from?
John Northey - Saturday, August 24 2024 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#451817) #
An excellent point greenfrog - who can be a 4 WAR player?

Times with 4.0 or better bWAR... (current Jays only, regardless of who they were playing with at the time)
  • 2024: Vlad (4.9), Varsho (4.7 so far)
  • 2023: Bo, (Schneider 1.8 in 35 games)
  • 2022: Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Manoah
  • 2021 or Earlier: Springer 16/17/19, Vlad 21, Bo 21, Bassitt 21, Gausman 21
So for 2025 it isn't unreasonable to hope for Vlad & Varsho to be 4's, Bo, Springer, Kirk all did it in the recent past (within 2 years). Gausman and Bassitt both did it in '21 but that was awhile ago now.

fWAR...
  • 2024: Vlad 4.1, Varsho at 3.1 (might make it),
  • 2023: Bo, (Schneider 1.9 in 35 games), Gausman
  • 2022: Springer, Varsho, Kirk, Bo, Gausman
  • 2021 or earlier: Springer 16/17/19, Vlad '21, Bo '21, Gausman '21, Berrios 19/21
So a lot of guys have done it in the past 3 years by one or the other method (so not unreasonable for them to do it again, but I'd bet against Springer myself) - Vlad, Varsho, Bo, Kirk, Manoah, Gausman, Springer. Add in 2021 and earlier and you get Bassitt and Berrios as well.

IMO the big question is will any of our kids be able to do it as they reach their primes? Schneider is make or break in 2025, Wagner, Barger, Loperfido, and Jimenez have shown some potential but not that level of it yet (have great hopes for Loperfido right now though - but also had it for Schneider though).
Ducey - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#451818) #
A big priority for next year not mentioned is what to do with Bo.

It seems pretty clear he wont be around in 2026. Do they trade him in the winter?

I am not sure what he is worth after his brutal season. But he could maybe bring back some useful pieces.
John Northey - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#451819) #
Tough one - if he comes back and has a strong September then he could have some value, but otherwise teams will heavily discount him most likely and it'd make more sense to hold on until mid-season, if a lost year again then you trade him, if not then he could help a lot - 120 OPS+ SS's don't grow on trees after all. The best free agent SS's are Willy Adames (entering age 29 season, 114 OPS+ this year after a 93 last, lifetime 108, peak 126 in 2020, 121 in '21, solid defense) and Ha-Seong Kim (entering age 29 season, 98 OPS+ this year, 98 lifetime, peak 107, amazing defense). For comparison Bo is entering his age 27 season, has a 70 OPS+ this year, 121+ every other season, 120 lifetime, defensive #'s appear similar to Adames.

I suspect if he can show he is healthy and can be productive in September his value will be there, given the alternatives. Leo Jimenez is nowhere near Bo's level. 99 OPS+ this year, average defense. Will be in age 24 season next year and at the minimum salary (no options so has to be on the team). He did have a 915 OPS in 2019 as an 18 year old in rookie/A ball, lifetime 272/392/390 in the minors - if he could push his OBP anywhere near that 390 level he'd have a TON of value but his 306 so far in the majors suggests that is unlikely. Still, 0.6 bWAR in 37 G = 2.6 over a full season - a solid regular but not an all-star like Bo. So the Bo backup plan isn't a disaster nor a 'wow'. Can't see Bo being traded unless it is a very good return and/or he tells the team he doesn't want to come back in 2025, let along 2026 and beyond.

From a PR POV a Bo deal would need to be either preceded or followed by a Vlad long term deal being signed. Fans need to believe there is a long term plan of some kind to buy season tickets.
Kelekin - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#451820) #
I feel less worried about starter depth than in previous years. If all goes well, your AAA rotation to start the year may be Bloss, Macko, Wallace, Sanchez, and Estrada (perhaps Jennings too unless they've decided to move him to the bullpen). In truth I'm more worried about what kind of ceiling performances we can get out of our aging rotation veterans. Bassitt, Gausman, and Berrios have all been quite shaky at times and their underlying metrics all have red flags.
SK in NJ - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#451821) #
Bo has 4-5 WAR upside, and should be extra motivated in a contract year, so if the intention is to compete then it might be better to hold on to him to start the year. The risk there is that Bo's skill set is typically one that doesn't age well, so while I'd probably predict a bounce back year from him, it's not a guarantee, especially if injuries have started catching up to him. Ultimately if a team is willing to give up useful pieces for him then the Jays would have to consider it. Between Clement and Jimenez they should be able to get average production out of SS next season in that case, but they'd need to upgrade significantly elsewhere to compensate.

The one player I think the Jays should absolutely move even if it leads to a minimal return and/or minimal cost savings is Springer.
scottt - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#451822) #
Adames has hit better this year but his defense has been bad.

They need a decent clean up bat and that's not Bichette.
The market for Bichette is pretty limited: serious contender with a hole in the middle infield.
Also the return has to make sense. It would be hard to say no to a top catching prospect.

They don't need to trade Springer, but they need him to fight for playing time.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#451823) #
A few thoughts on some of these topics:

Bo would fetch a kings ransom if he was traded after 2023. Now he has 1 year left and had a terrible season. I'd peg a return for him at 50% less than if he was traded last season but thats still a decent return. The floor for a return for Bo in my mind is the return for Kikuchi. He likely will only be traded if there is a team at its peak and missing a SS, like the Dodgers. If it was me I would resign him and if he refuses and you cant get a good enough return for him then move him to 2B for the year.

SP depth will get better as mentioned. Im also excited about potential depth with Manoah, Tiedeman, Maroudis, Barriera in 2026. Hopefully there is truth to the rumours that Kikuchi wants to return here next season.

dalimon5 - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#451824) #
Has anyone ever had a 50 HR and 50 SB season before in MLB?
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#451825) #
No player has ever had that combination in a season. The highest total a player has reached in both home runs and stolen bases in a season is 42, when Rodriguez had 42 home runs and 46 stolen bases in 1998.

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-facts-and-figures-40-homers-40-stolen-bases?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
bpoz - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#451826) #
Good to see the positive comments about next year and beyond.
Glevin - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#451827) #
The answers to a lot of these questions is "it depends". On the balance, it makes sense to trade Bo but if the offers aren't there, then they might as well keep him. It makes sense to sign Vlad but if he wants like $50M a year or something, you just can't do it. It makes sense to trade Springer but if there is a big cost to do it, it doesn't. Anyway, I'm enjoying this part of the season more than any other. Lots of interesting players to watch. I think Jays will probably trade some younger players in off-season. They have a lot of interesting guys at AAA/majors in some places (OF) and lack other places. It can help them get pieces they can't find in free agency.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#451828) #
If the Blue Jays don't trade Springer, fans should be prepared for the manager to give him 550+ PA at the top of the lineup next year (possibly with a sub-700 OPS).
soupman - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#451829) #
Springer has averaged 5 bWAR a year through his career on a per 162 game basis.

Bo leads the league in hits basically every year he isn't injured (ie. 2024).

The front office said it plans to compete next year. It just spent half a billion dollars of the owners' money. Attendance is declining. Barring them being fired and a new group brought in to do a rebuild, I would be SHOCKED to see Bo traded, and think it is highly unlikely that they trade Springer...who would even take the salary let alone send back an asset? Also...he's usually a 5-win player.

So...why would a team trying to win sell two players that have a reasonable chance of generating 10 WAR next year when the return will be...what? You might have to PAY to get rid of Springer at this point. Selling low seems like...a weird strategy. Bo nets a comp pick, and will be more valuable if/when the Jays are out of it mid-season and they can leverage good performance instead of trying to trade an injured player that was bad when he was on the field this year.

I get that there isn't a huge amount to talk about here - but betting on your stars being stars seems like a sounder strategy than hoping that prospects that no one expected anything from coming into the season emerge as All-Stars ...no matter how fun it would be to be surprised and find a new hope.

John Northey - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#451830) #
Yeah, that is the problem with Springer - he is a long time ML'er, former All-Star who as recently as 2022 was still a damn good hitter. If the drop the past 2 years (from 4 WAR to 2 to 1) is what it seems - the inevitable aging curve hitting - then he will be around a 1 WAR going forward, maybe 2 if lucky, maybe 0 if unlucky. He had that very hot stretch in July with a 129 sOPS+ after a decent June (94 sOPS+) but now in August is back to his April/May form with a 63 sOPS+ (78/79 in April/May). He clearly can still be valuable when on, but when off he can be horrid. On May 25th he was down to 188/264/273 and still batting 5th for some reason. Then he started a comeback but fell again so by June 24th was at 188/278/281 before his super-hot streak hit. June 25th to July 21st he hit 377/435/792 - wow - and not just against bottom dwellers but 4 vs Houston/NYY, 3 Seattle/SF/Ari/Det, 1 vs Boston. Mix of home and road games. Since then he has 'hit' 182/256/327 but it has been ignored due to the drastic change in the team's situation.

For games from July 30th on (deadline was the 30th) the Jays are 12-11, 2 1/2 games behind KC for the best record in the AL, 1 1/2 behind the Yankees in the AL East. Clearly dumping vets didn't hurt this team one iota - before that they were 50-57, 13 back of Baltimore. This is a lot like 1998 when they dumped a ton at mid-season then went on a tear. July 31st was the deadline then, they were just under 500 when the deadline hit (54-56), but 34-18 after it (1/2 a game behind the Yankees in their 114 win season). Didn't save the managers job or lead to anything great (88 wins in '98, their peak until 2015) but it was a lot of fun at the time. That year they traded a DH/C in Mike Stanley, a former star pitcher in Juan Guzman (was having a year a lot like Kikuchi's), a 3B in Sprague, and a utility guy in Tony Phillips. Gets were bad (Leo Estrella, Scott Rivette, Shannon Carter, Nerio Rodríguez, and Peter Munro none of whom got 1 WAR in their careers, let along do anything with the Jays of note). The best 'trade' was probably a few days later when Randy Myers was put on waivers and SD took him and gave the Jays career minor leaguer Brian Loyd (salary dump, Myers had 21 games with Seattle with a 64 ERA+ and was done). An excellent reminder of how bad a GM can be.

So is there hope? Yes. Is Springer going to drag the team down in 2025? Probably. But right now we have LF to worry about so Springer isn't problem A, B or C (Bullpen/3B/LF). If he stinks in 2025 he can be minimized if the kids come through in LF and DH (Loperfido, Schneider, etc.) and given how it'd be the 3rd straight year of sub-par results I wouldn't be shocked if he got bench time should the kids force the issue.

A trade is near impossible. Springer is owed nearly $50 mil over the next 2 years, to trade him now would require the Jays to eat almost all of that or take back a contract just as bad, or give up significant prospects - doubt there are any GM's willing to make the mistake the Angels one did for Vernon Wells all those years ago (Tony Reagins who was forced to resign less than a year later).
greenfrog - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#451831) #
In my opinion, Springer was a good signing, but the significant injuries he has had with the Blue Jays (quad, knee, elbow, head) have taken their toll.

If the Blue Jays are a middling team fighting to earn a WC spot next year, Springer starting in RF and posting around 0-1 WAR in 500-600 PA could be a problem that prevents them from making the postseason.
uglyone - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#451832) #
is there any real negative impact of waiting to trade Bo at the deadline instead of the offseason?
uglyone - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#451834) #
i think i'd enjoy a Barger hot streak more than most any of the youngsters tbh.
Nigel - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#451835) #
It’s interesting to watch Gausman and Francis back to back against the same team. Their repertoire’s are identical but they pitch completely differently.
hypobole - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#451837) #
Graphic after the game said this was the 1st time ever the Blue Jays have swept a 7 game series.

May 18, Jays lost 5-4 to Tampa. Since then the Jays, despite all their issues, are 44 wins, 43 losses.

Next 16 games are all against teams at least 5 games over .500.


scottt - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#451838) #
I think Springer still runs quite well. The reflexes have probably slowed down. I don't know if the throws are any weaker.

There is as much reason to play Springer now than Barger, but the manager should be ready to play the hot bat next year, whoever it is.
scottt - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#451839) #
If Bo is still with the team next spring, it's because nobody was interested enough to make a serious offer.After that, it depends a lot of what Bo does with the bat. If he hits, the Jays are probably still chasing a wild card at worse.
If he doesn't hit and the Jays are below .500 again... I don't think they plan for that.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#451840) #
The trend with Springer's offense is clear. Here are the wRC+ stats he's posted over the last six years:

2019: 155
2020: 143
2021: 140
2022: 133
2023: 104
2024: 94

So he's been roughly a 100 wRC+ hitter over his last 1200 PAs. It seems unlikely he's going to be better in 2025 (his age-35 season). He might be worse than he's been this year.
Ducey - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#451841) #
The Jay's are no going to be able to trade George. As mentioned he is on the decline, makes $22.5 million a year, and has an 8 team no trade list.
soupman - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#451843) #
It's the Angels thread and last for a while, so I was thinking about a provocative "what if the Jays trade for Trout and they send back nothing because they assume most of Rendon's which answers the 3B question".

well....

then I looked up how Rendon has been doing. I knew it was bad, but I don't think I knew HOW bad. Over the last 4 years he's barely played a full season's worth of games. He averages about 50 games a year. In that time he's put up 1.3 WAR on the back of an 87 OPS+.

You can add the 2020 season where he wasn't bad yet...but it doesn't make things look much better.

So...even before we get to the massive red flags that come with Trout, I think that Rendon deal is such a non-starter not just for the luxury tax implications, not just for the poor performance, but baed solely on the malingering, pouty, plays the game the entirely wrong way, fails to pass the vibe check, loser-ass mentality he would bring.

Since the one of the halos took a shot at Shaman yesterday - I don't even care about rescuing the baseball saint mike trout from that misery. hope our old pal Perry Minasian can make it out alive, tho.
soupman - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#451844) #
Oh, and the other staggering thing about Rendon is that he has NO POWER now. It's declined in each year since arriving in LA. He hit 9 in 2020 and since the start of the 2023 season he has 2 HR including ZERO this season.

In the 5 seasons he's been on their payroll he's given them 22 HR, a 101 OPS+ and played in 247 games. $168million deep with another $77million on the books.

My brain can barely comprehend these numbers.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#451845) #
To trade Springer, the Blue Jays would need to find a bad team with some money to spend that was willing to take on some salary as a means to add a couple of decent prospects to help rebuild their farm system. It does seem like a long shot, especially in the modern era when most teams have a chance at a WC berth. As mentioned previously, I thought the Blue Jays might have an outside shot at trading him this July when he was on a scorching run from mid/late June to mid/late July, but no such luck.
uglyone - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#451846) #

Fangraphs Rest of Season Combined Projections, Blue Jays OF:

* Springer 110wrc+
* Varsho 106wrc+
* Schneider 105wrc+
* Barger 96wrc+
* Loperfido 90wrc+
* Clase 79wrc+
* Berroa 76wrc+
uglyone - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#451847) #
Only Steamer projections available for Roden: 105wrc+
Nigel - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#451848) #
Those first three Fangraphs rest of the season numbers are laughably incomprehensible.
uglyone - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#451849) #

this year wrc+:

* Varsho 101 (.268babip)
* Loperfido 95 (.359babip)
* Springer 94 (.242babip)
* Schneider 83 (.263babip)
* Berroa 51 (.222babip)
* Clase 33 (.296babip)


Past Calendar Year (not including tonight)

* Springer 100 (.254babip)
* Schneider 100 (.273babip)
* Varsho 98 (.252babip)
* Loperfido 95 (.359babip)
* Berroa 51 (.222babip)
* Clase 33 (.296babip)
greenfrog - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#451850) #
100 wRC+ seems OK if you’re earning the league minimum salary. But not if you’re earning $24m+ per year.
uglyone - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#451851) #
sunk cost tho.
SK in NJ - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#451852) #
Springer will never have to fight for playing time as long as he's on this roster. That's the issue. He's going to play everyday in RF regardless of performance, and 2024 is proof of that. I think at this point you consider it sunk cost and move on. He doesn't make sense on this roster regardless of team intention. If they want to rebuild, then a younger player would be better in that spot. If they want to contend, then ideally you'd want to upgrade RF rather than stick with a 35 year old 1 WAR player. Moving Springer is about upgrading the position, not the return (which would be next to nothing). Eat up some money, save as much as possible, but move on. Maybe Barger, Roden, etc, are not the answer, but I'd rather try that (or sign/trade for someone from outside the organization) than have another year of below average offense getting 600 plate appearances and leading off 75% of the time.
Ducey - Sunday, August 25 2024 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#451853) #
Springer will fit the myth that they will compete next year. In 2026 its likely they start cutting his playing time,maybe even release him midseason.

Just watching the highlights:

1) intentional walk at 3-1 with noone on to Vlad was weird. Kirk made em pay.
2) Barger's swing looks better. He is rotating better and not stepping in the bucket anymore. His swing is still pretty long, but maybe he can keep working on it
electric carrot - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#451854) #
Vlad's last 30 days:
.402/.488/.814

Jonny German - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 05:07 AM EDT (#451855) #
Those first three Fangraphs rest of the season numbers are laughably incomprehensible.

Umm... we've seen all three of them peform well above those levels in stretches much longer than 31 games earlier this very season. Does "incomprehensible" not mean what I think it means?

Jonny German - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 05:11 AM EDT (#451856) #
Springer will never have to fight for playing time as long as he's on this roster. That's the issue. He's going to play everyday in RF regardless of performance, and 2024 is proof of that.

I don't think 2024 proves that at all. Springer was terrible in April and May, but what do you think the team should have done? There was no viable alternative available, no one that could reasonably be expected to perform noticeably better than Springer. And from the end of May thru the trade deadline Springer played well.

Maybe management has a blind spot and will play Springer all of 2025 even if he looks cooked and the team is struggling to contend and Alan Roden is destroying AAA. But I doubt it.

greenfrog - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#451857) #
Management has actually this done this several times before. For example:

Grichuk (2021): 545 PA / 0.5 WAR
Grichuk (2022): 538 PA / 0.5 WAR
Tapia (2022): 433 PA / 0.4 WAR

Post-2020, it took the front office a combined 1516 PA to move on from Grichuk and Tapia. They were basically full-time non-productive players during prime seasons in the Blue Jays competitive window. Atkins/Shapiro are now continuing the same approach in 2024 (and possibly 2025) with Springer.
greenfrog - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#451858) #
Sorry, that should read 2020 + 2021 for Grichuk and 2022 for Tapia. So it actually took the front office 978 PA (not 1516 PA) for the front office to move on from those players in 2021 and 2022 (although the Blue Jays continued to have problems staffing the outfield in 2023 and 2024).
Glevin - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#451859) #
This isn't fantasy baseball. You don't need to be productive at every single position. You need to have overall production. Dodgers are probably best team in baseball and they have 2 guys with over 300 PAs and under 1 WAR. Springer has 0.7 WAR since July 1. He is probably a 1-2 WAR player next season. If Jays mix and match in RF with Barger, Loperfido, Springer etc.. They probably get like 2-2.5 WAR. If the team can do a lot better in RF, they should, but trading prospects and/or eating salary to try to eke out an extra half a win or something doesn't make sense. And the idea that the Jays Will play Springer no matter what is silly. Everyone is incentivize to try to win. If Barger is smoking the ball, he will play.

The Jays issue is and will keep being lack of elite talent. They don't have any frontline starters and apart from Vlad, they don't have anyone I'd bet on being a 3 win player (I guess Varsho and his D will get there) . There are a lot of different ways the team can go to try to upgrade. (basically every position except 1B and CF). The Jays need to be flexible and take what is available.
metafour - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#451860) #
Randal Grichuk played for Colorado in 2022, not Toronto.

Also, this is hardly a Blue Jays-only "problem". This season for example:

Yankees:
Alex Verdugo - 533 PA, 0.3 WAR
Gleyber Torres - 522 PA, 0.7 WAR

Brewers:
Rhys Hoskins - 413 PA, 0.0 WAR

Both teams are in first place in their division.

Padres:
Luis Arraez - 402 PA, 0.6 WAR
Mike Green - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#451861) #
I don't think the Rest of Season projection for Springer is incomprehensible.  His numbers in 2024 have been reduced because of a .242 BABIP.  He's hitting the ball on the ground a lot (50%) and he still runs well, but his IF hit rate is quite low.  xwOBA agrees, and has him at an above-average .331. 

My take: Schneider is best as a second baseman, and I think he is a better player than the alternatives in that role in the medium term.  But he will need some time in Buffalo, probably at the start of 2025, to get his confidence back; I wish that he'd be sent there a while ago  That leaves four contenders for OF jobs- Loperfido, Varsho, Roden and Springer.  I think that there's room for all four of them on the 2025 roster, getting 500-600 PAs with Varsho at the high end of that range and the rest closer to the low end.  It should be noted that Varsho has hit very well against LHP the last two years, and he has perfectly decent numbers against LHP over his career.  He can play most every day, with Loperfido giving him a day off once a month. 

The Blue Jays in August are 13-9 with an 104-86 RS/RA differential.  They went 3-3 against Baltimore and NYY (29/32 RS vs. RA) and 10-6 against average and weak competition.  They didn't face the White Sox who are far and away the weakest team in the league.  Guerrero Jr. was hot and played like an MVP candidate, of course, but the position players as a whole have been the 4th best in the major leagues.  Varsho, Kirk, Clement, Horwitz, Jimenez and Loperfido have all made significant contributions.  The pitching still has been below average, with Bowden Francis leading the way in August and Gausman also making a good contribution.  The deadline trades have been a big boon to both the major league club and minor league system. 
92-93 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#451862) #
I would gladly bet on Bichette being a 3 win player.

The team's situation really isn't as bad as the doomsdayers make it sound.
92-93 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#451863) #
Heck, Kirk probably gets there with a healthy season too.
SK in NJ - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#451864) #
Horwitz spent like 3 months torching the minors while Justin Turner was playing everyday and batting clean up most of the time despite an inability to hit RHP. This thinking isn’t exclusive to Springer, he’s just the only high paid veteran position player left. Maybe with a few more OF options available to them next season (Barger, Roden, Clase), they’ll be a little more willing to reduce Springer’s role if he’s struggling but I’ll have to see it to believe it.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#451865) #
"The Jays issue is and will keep being lack of elite talent. They don't have any frontline starters and apart from Vlad, they don't have anyone I'd bet on being a 3 win player (I guess Varsho and his D will get there) . There are a lot of different ways the team can go to try to upgrade. (basically every position except 1B and CF). The Jays need to be flexible and take what is available."

BINGO
Glevin - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#451866) #
"Horwitz spent like 3 months torching the minors while Justin Turner was playing everyday and batting clean up most of the time despite an inability to hit RHP."

Not true and I don't get this narrative around Horwitz at all. Turner had a 109 WRC+ as of July 1st. Jays called up Horwitz in early June after he got some games in in AAA at 2B. Could they have moved on from Vogelbach a little sooner? Probably but he only had 79 PAs for the Jays in 2 months and no team was going to try to teach a player how to play 2B in the majors.

SK in NJ - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#451867) #
Using that July 1 cut off, Turner was hitting .227 with a .337 SLG against RHP at that point, and that was after a hot streak. Which furthers my point. They could have called up Horwitz sooner and did more of a platoon, or at worst lowered Turner’s playing time and/or importance in the lineup, yet they did neither. The fact that they felt playing a 1B at 2B was the only way to get Horwitz into the lineup doesn’t change the outcome.
scottt - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#451870) #
Boston here doesn't have any frontline starters. Devers is at 4.3 bWAR.  Jarren Duran is at 7.5! It's just that he hits and play CF.
Glevin - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#451872) #
Except Vogelbach had a 119 WRC+ against righties last year and a 148 WRC+ against righties the year before and the Jays had started to give him some run. He had 6 starts before May 12 and then 14 starts in the next month. It made sense to give him a shot. By mid May, Jays weren't playing Turner everyday against righties. So what are you saying? The Jays should have cut Vogelbach without giving him a chance even though he won the job in spring over Horwitz and has a major league history of killing righties in order to call up Horwitz? In May, when the Jays were deciding to give Vogelbach a shot, Horwitz had an. 834 OPS and 1 HR which is pretty good but not exactly demanding a call up. (he had 0 hrs in April) Giving Vogelbach a shot absolutely made sense. Horwitz got hot and started showing power and Vogelbach was doing nothing in June and the Jays called Horwitz up almost immediately. What are you complaining about really, Horwitz missing out on like a 3 games and not also learning to play 2B? You think this shows the Jays aren't trying to win? I don't get these complaints at all.
uglyone - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#451873) #
"Moving Springer is about upgrading the position, not the return (which would be next to nothing). Eat up some money, save as much as possible, but move on. Maybe Barger, Roden, etc, are not the answer, but I'd rather try that (or sign/trade for someone from outside the organization) than have another year of below average offense getting 600 plate appearances and leading off 75% of the time."

the problem is your first sentence "all about upgrading" doesn't agree with your second sentence "just move on".

Springer is still a solid bet to be the best of all our current corner OF options next year. "Moving on" isn't a safe bet to "upgrading the position", nor does it give us any money to help to upgrade the position from outside the org.


Should he be in more of competition for playing time next year if he's here? sure. But dumping one of your best OF options for no payroll advantage and no return doesn't upgrade the roster at all.
uglyone - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#451874) #
Horwitz in his first 100pa posted a 175wrc+.

Since then he's posted an 89wrc+ in 166pa.
Glevin - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#451875) #
"should he be in more of competition for playing time next year if he's here? sure. But dumping one of your best OF options for no payroll advantage and no return doesn't upgrade the roster at all."

This is exactly it. The scenario I'd be most willing to trade Springer is if Jays decide not to compete because then you want to give abs to young guys but if Jays are going to try to win, trading Springer doesn't make a lot of sense.
greenfrog - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#451876) #
The other OF options are a lot younger than Springer. Looking at career numbers or the last two calendar years doesn’t reflect Springer’s steep decline in offensive performance or his age next year (35).
uglyone - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#451877) #
I think if we look at all the numbers they show that Springer is still a safer bet to be decent than the other corner OF.
92-93 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#451878) #
A Springer trade would make sense if there's a similar pitching contract out there that a team is looking to dump. Paying him 15MM+ to play for another team would be silly, though. At that point you just keep him and cut him next summer if he's useless.
soupman - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#451880) #
I'm not sure where the belief that the Jays are not competitive NOW comes from. This is what a "playoff" team looks like. It's just that you need a lot of things to go right since they are mediocre and they are "competing" against other teams in the same echelon hoping for the same thing: stars to be stars, and some career-years from guys you didn't expect anything from combined with good health.

The Jays are outplaying last years' WS winners. The Friars had the same pythagorean as the Jays last year, are running more or less the same team minus Juan Soto and they are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers and have a relatively safe hold on a wild card spot.

The Jays are not doing great in the standings, but this is what a "competitive" team looks like. It's, imo, stupid that this level of team can win the World Series - but that's another conversation. This is the product that the front office believes fans want. I've said it since the day they hired Shapiro: this is not a winning strategy for this franchise. The reduction in the number of games against ALEast opponents changes the calculation somewhat...it's less asinine than it was 9 years ago...but fans sure seem to find this brand of baseball frustrating. If you want a world-beater team, you need to either get a lot smarter than the current batch of people zooming in to blue jays way, or you need to change your relationship to risk in various ways.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#451881) #
"I've said it since the day they hired Shapiro: this is not a winning strategy for this franchise. The reduction in the number of games against ALEast opponents changes the calculation somewhat...it's less asinine than it was 9 years ago...but fans sure seem to find this brand of baseball frustrating. If you want a world-beater team, you need to either get a lot smarter than the current batch of people zooming in to blue jays way, or you need to change your relationship to risk in various ways."

What have you been proposing the Jays do instead which you are sure they haven't already tried? Increase payroll higher? Fire Shapiro and bring in...who? Don't tell me "re-sign Vlad." Don't tell me "tank for half a decade like Houston and Baltimore."

Do you have examples of "World-beater" teams that are running away by being smarter that the Blue Jays? Is it the Orioles and Astros you're referring to? The Braves with a bigger decline than Springer? Are they immune because they lost their best player? are you referring to the LAD? Didn't the Jays offer the same deal to Ohtani? Are you proposing the Jays can hire someone of Andrew Friedman's caliber? Who would that be? Bendix who is in Miami?

You're chirping a lot of posters here and acting like you've had the answers 9 years ago, which you haven't.
SK in NJ - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#451882) #
If playing time was merit based, then sure, keep Springer. If he bounces back then he plays more. If he doesn’t, then use him more sparingly. That would be fine. My point is that I don’t think his time specifically will be merit based, which impacts the team in many ways. I’m not saying release him. Ideally you find a similar contract that fills a position of need and make the swap there. If not then I don’t think it’s unreasonable to eat up a large chunk of the contract to open up RF if they find an internal or external upgrade (or want to give a prospect a bigger role). Again maybe I will look silly for saying this a year from now if he bounces back, but is that even a reasonable expectation at this point? He was about league average offensively last season and below average this season. He turns 35 next season and has a lot of wear and tear.

I think Springer’s ideal role now would be more of a 4th OF who still gets a decent chunk of PA’s but no where near 600. I just don’t think the Jays (with the current FO/manager) will do it.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#451883) #
"The other OF options are a lot younger than Springer. Looking at career numbers or the last two calendar years doesn’t reflect Springer’s steep decline in offensive performance or his age next year (35)."

Shouldn't you also be pining for Bichette to be traded away or cut since he has been worse and you don't want to put much merit to recent stats? He's terrible this year and was terrible for major chunks of the previous two seasons before this where other worldly performances in 3 of 12 months made his numbers look much more valuable than they were.

If you look at Springer like an underperforming player rather than a ROI play like a stock trading entity it makes a lot more sense to include him in the team. You just came off a year where you wasted 32 million on aging under-performing vets...
Nigel - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#451884) #
Springer has a significantly negative net trade value today (i.e. his salary significantly exceeds his projectable performance). The Jays have a deficit of talent but have payroll room (not a lot but some). Any trade of Springer (unless its a "problem for problem" trade like 92-93 mentions) is hurting the Jays going forward from a talent perspective. You have to lie in the bed you made and that is particularly true when there isn't really an obviously better player that the Jays could field that Springer would be taking ABs away from. Move him out of the leadoff spot though - that would make sense.
92-93 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#451886) #
Canadian Jameson Taillon (2/36) would be a good swap for Springer and one of the AAAA guys. He has a limited no-trade clause, though.
soupman - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#451887) #
I think my opinions have been outlined over time pretty clearly and don't amount to tanking forever. Not sure why you are being so hostile, either.

Capolella and Luhnow are good examples of execs that put winning above all else. Obviously with the strikes against them, they might be more gun shy than the last time around. Identify ambitious executives, preferably ones that have a tie to the city. I'm not saying "hire AA" but I'm highlighting how stupid it was to let him go when he'd demonstrated several ways he could out work his peers, and identify niches...without, unlike the aforementioned, breaking the rules as far as we know. That's why he's regarded as among the best.

I don't think you can get "smarter" by adding more people with advanced degrees in quantitative data analysis, I'll say that. If you look at teams like the Yankees and Dodgers that expect to win each year, or the Red Sox for the first 20 years of this century, they are all accepting of large risk on contracts, and they solves roster issues frequently with adding from the top 2-3 available free agents at market prices. They do that on top of gaming drafts and IFA, and a host of other things that their finances allow. The Jays' ownership is third richest per Forbes behind Cohen and the Dodgers consortium. They, as you hint at, are running a high payroll as it stands...what would these other franchises do? Trade their starting short stop, the league leader in hits most years? To what end? Make room for a 26yo prospect that might generate nominally positive WAR over a career? It's absurd what Jays 'fans' conceive of as strategies.

I say they need to get smarter sardonically because every team, at least all serious teams, already understand that projections are useful. That juice has been squeezed and we're scraping the pith here. The cutting edge is elsewhere, and a front office that continues to operate using established best practices will probably never lead to more than middling results. The reason teams like the Rays stay competitive is that they stay on the cutting edge with assessments and in-game tactics. Nothing is sacred, and there is no 'doing it this way because we always have'. But the Jays are not the Rays and shouldn't model themselves on a team that already occupies a different niche.

The jays are stuck in the middle. like they have been outside of when they weren't. what got them to world-beater level was not a more technocratic approach. and it wasn't the lines on a resume or a certificate in R. you need ambition and drive. from top to bottom.

it sounds simple, but it isn't. there have been 'cultural' waves before, and there will be in the future. you can't measure a loci genii, and I don't think anyone has a formula for creating one...but if the Yankees and Dodgers are any indication...money really really can help you get a LOT of the way there, most of the time.
soupman - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#451889) #
Springer was worth 4 WAR are recently as the year before last. He's shown signs he can still play, and they're paying him, anyway. This is the dead money part of the deal. If Springer isn't the everyday right fielder next year, I haven't seen anyone in the organization forcing the issue. I heard this guy Soto is available, though. He might be an upgrade.

I would bet on George having a dead cat bounce 4-5 WAR season well before I bet on any of the Jays' kids putting up that kind of performance. Since you'd have to pay someone to take him...and he's not yet 35, I think there's decent reason to think he has another year of gas in the tank. Certainly stranger things have happened, and a winter of conditioning and rest might do wonders.

The main issues with the team are the bullpen has been awful and the game on the whole rarely lets starters go third time through an order. Romano might be a boost, let's hope he's back to full power by spring. Green looks fine. Swanson has been good in the past. Beyond that...there's work. The rotation might get a boost with a recovered Manoah. YRod looks good, Francis could be useful, and then you have your minor leaguers who might be ready to be hot shot (or traded at the deadline for a boost) for the run-in.

The FA market is bleak - but there are some OF options that could add pop, and a few relievers that will get paid like Yates. The Jays may wanna look to Japan/Korea/Cuba/etc for intriguing options, but probably moving some of the prospects for relievers is the way it will need to go, and can go in season if Romano/Swanson/Green can be relied on as the 7/8/9 trio.

As I say above, this team is already "competitive", and has been playing well in the last month with lowered expectations. I think they should sign Soto, and beyond that, I think they will do what they did last off season and wait for the market to come to them instead of signing decent players to bad deals. With that said, after this year, if they don't make it, I can't see why ownership would want this front office in charge...so there is an extra bit of motivation for them to make the typical mistakes in free agency which they have so far avoided. As a long-time fan and one that wants the team to stay good...I would hope they do not offer long term (over 3 years) deals to players over 30 on career years (Santander, etc.)
uglyone - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#451891) #
Next year.

* CF Varsho 28
* RF Springer 35
* LF Loperfido 26
* 3B Guerrero 26
* SS Bichette 27
* 2B Jimenez 24
* 1B Horwitz 27
* DH Barger 25
* C Kirk 26

* UT Schneider 26
* OF Roden 25
* IF Wagner 26
* C

and then with 3 talented 23yr olds who could be ready quickly but who i'd rather start in AAA until they dominate:

* UT McAdoo
* OF Clase
* IF Martinez
* C


I don't see any other guy in the system demanding playing time really.

So what money we have should probably go to a catcher like Jansen.


Of course it'd be nice to add a clear upgrade somewhere else too but I'm not sure we have the money for a guy who's actually a clear upgrade.

uglyone - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#451892) #
and I don't see any roster crowding there either. plenty of room for everyone we want to get playing time get it.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 26 2024 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#451894) #
I want to be direct not hostile.
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