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They said, Joey did this and Joey did that
Oh, that guy was crazy, what a crazy cat
Then something strange would happen, there's trouble on the way
And trouble only means one thing
Joey's on the street again


Joey really ought to be involved in these games, surely? Unfortunately, he's in the throes of a 2-26 slump in AAA, and it's hard to see this having anything resembling a happy ending.



His old team probably feels somewhat disappointed at how things have gone without him. The 2023 Reds took a great leap into the Region of Respectability, going from 62-100 to 82-80 - they appear to have fallen back a little this season. They haven't really - they've mostly just been really unlucky (10-21) in the close games. They're probably a better team overall this season - they're certainly a whole lot better at run prevention, having shaved almost a full run per game from the other team's offence. Hunter Greene's emergence as a legitimate ace starter had much to do with that, and everyone connected with the Reds is heaving a huge sigh of relief that the MRI on his tender elbow indicates that he appears to have avoided a major injury.

The Reds have called up 23 year old RH Julian Agular to make his MLB debut tonight, and they haven't yet decided who's starting tomorrow's game. Wednesday's starter, Nick Martinez, has spent most of the year working out of the bullpen, although he has given the Reds three Quality Starts since going into the rotation two weeks ago.

Random notes...

Since the calendar turned to July, Kevin Gausman is 5-1, 3.17, mostly because the opposition is hitting just .212 against him and he's been able to keep the ball in the park...

Over the same period, Spencer Horwitz has cooled down (.247/.314/.387) from his hot start, and he may prove to be a very good hitter for a second baseman, not so much for a first baseman...

Steward Berroa has drawn 6 bases on balls in his 32 Plate Appearances, which means just one more and he'll have walked as often as Ernie Clement has in more than 300 Plate Appearances. Berroa drew lots of walks in the minors as well - if he can manage to hit just .260 in the majors, he's a legitimate leadoff hitter.

Back on 11 May, Davis Schneider had three hits, one of them a homer off Simeon Wood-Richardson. He'd played in 32 of the team's first 39 games and was hitting .287/.388/.517, which makes a nifty .906 OPS. Since then, times have been pretty hard, which seems a polite way to describe .169/.258/.290 over 74 games. My own utterly uninformed observation is that - like Cavan Biggio before him and his own teammate Daulton Varsho - he's having trouble hitting the high fastball. This is a serious problem, because the high fastball is as close as baseball has to a Default Pitch. It's the thing everybody throws, it's the natural way to throw a baseball. And modern pitchers are all enormous brutes, most of whom have only made it to a major league mound because they can throw high fastballs, and throw them really hard. That's almost never enough for a pitcher to succeed - most major league hitters can hit the high fastball, that's why they've made it this far - but it's the most common point of departure. Schneider is at a further disadvantage. Varsho (and Biggio) at least have the platoon advantage working in their favour more often than not. (And Varsho is an elite defensive player.) If you can't hit the slider low and away - well, what's the big deal? No one can hit that pitch. But you have to be able to handle the fastball.

Anyway, these are details. Elly De La Cruz! Live and in person! This will be cool.

Matchups

Mon 19 Aug - Agular (---,-.--) vs Gausman (11-8, 4.20)
Tue 20 Aug - TBA () vs Berrios (11-9, 3.85)
Wed 21 Aug - Martinez (6-6, 3.25) vs Rodriguez (1-5, 3.93)
Cincinnati at Toronto, August 19-21 | 121 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#451562) #
On the subject of not being able to hit high fastballs...

Over at The Athletic, there was an article a few days ago that asked the Oriole's secret to developing great hitters. I'll let someone else post the conclusions, but there was a chart. It showed the O's as the only team that was top 5 slugging both in the top 1/3 of the strike zone and the bottom 1/3 of the strike zone, with near identical results - .52 high, .51 low.

Then there's the Blue Jays. They are respectable in the bottom 1/3 of the zone, their slugging .49 placing them in the 10th-12th range. But the top 1/3, the Jays are penultimately bad. Only the White Sox are worse than the Jays .37 slugging.

As for this series, the Reds are middle of the pack high, but they, along with the Marlins, have the worst slugging in the bottom 1/3 0f the zone.

Nigel - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#451563) #
It's beyond my technical know how what the exact problems are with the Jays hitting high FBs other than I presume there's a correlation with the team's slow bat speed (near league worst if I remember the stats). Other than being aware that a few players (like Varsho and Biggio) have/had large holes in their swings in the upper part of the zone, I hadn't really thought much about it until Wagner's first few ABs when I was pleasantly surprised to seem him rip a couple of high inside FBs. Suddenly I was aware how infrequent an event that had become this year.
Ducey - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#451564) #
"Berroa drew lots of walks in the minors as well - if he can manage to hit just .260 in the majors, he's a legitimate leadoff hitter."

Hard to get on base from the bench. He's almost turned into a mascot/ cheerleader. He has just 32 PA's and has only played in 5 complete games since his call up June 23.

John Schneider is so focused on winning that he has given up on developing Berroa, Schneider, and Barger.

This is old timey manager stuff I dont respect.
uglyone - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#451565) #
Plausible Best Possible Lineups


Using 2024 Stats Only:

* 1B Horwitz 239pa, 118wrc+, 3.0war/650
* DH Guerrero 539pa, 163wrc+, 4.7war/650
* CF Varsho 433pa, 98wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 3B Clement 312pa, 93wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 2B Jimenez 109pa, 92wrc+, 0.0war/650
* RF Springer 480pa, 91wrc+, 1.1war/650
* LF Schneider 368pa, 87wrc+, 0.9war/650
* C Kirk 265pa, 82wrc+, 3.7war/650
* SS Bichette 331pa, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650

* IF Wagner 16pa, 271wrc+, 16.3war/650
* OF Loperfido 167pa, 72wrc+, 0.8war/650
* UT Barger 112pa, 44wrc+, -2.3war/650
* C Serven 40pa, 24wrc+, -3.3war/650

* IF DeLosSantos 8pa, 132wrc+, 8.1war/650
* IF Martinez 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* OF Berroa 32pa, 61wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Clase 43pa, 33wrc+, -1.5war/650

* (IF Falefa 341pa, 116wrc+, 4.8war/650)
* (DH Turner 405pa, 106wrc+, 0.5war/650)
* (C Jansen 260pa, 99wrc+, 1.8war/650)
* (UT Biggio 219pa, 85wrc+, 0.9war/650)
* (PH Vogelbach 79pa, 69wrc+, -2.5war/650)
* (OF Kiermaier 252pa, 56wrc+, 1.0war/650)



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

* 1B Horwitz 273pa, 116wrc+, 2.9war/650
* DH Guerrero 702pa, 155wrc+, 4.1war/650
* LF Schneider 477pa, 104wrc+, 2.5war/650
* CF Varsho 564pa, 99wrc+, 4.0war/650
* RF Springer 650pa, 98wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 3B Clement 354pa, 97wrc+, 3.3war/650
* C Kirk 374pa, 92wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 2B Jimenez 109pa, 92wrc+, 0.0war/650
* SS Bichette 461pa, 75wrc+, 0.7war/650

* IF Wagner 16pa, 271wrc+, 16.3war/650
* OF Loperfido 167pa, 72wrc+, 0.8war/650
* UT Barger 112pa, 44wrc+, -2.3war/650
* C Serven 40pa, 24wrc+, -3.3war/650

* IF DeLosSantos 8pa, 132wrc+, 8.1war/650
* IF Martinez 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* OF Berroa 32pa, 61wrc+, 0.0war/650
* PH Votto 61pa, 60wrc+, -3.2war/650
* OF Clase 43pa, 33wrc+, -1.5war/650
* OF Lukes 1pa, -100wrc+, 0.0war/650

* (C Jansen 293pa, 111wrc+, 2.9war/650)
* (PH Vogelbach 136pa, 103wrc+, 0.0war/650)
* (IF Falefa 401pa, 101wrc+, 3.6war/650)
* (PH Turner 558pa, 100wrc+, -0.1war/650)
* (UT Biggio 343pa, 95wrc+, 1.3war/650)
* (OF Kiermaier 358pa, 69wrc+, 1.8war/650)



Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections

* 2B Horwitz 110pa, 115wrc+, 3.0war/650
* 1B Guerrero 157pa, 148wrc+, 4.1war/650
* SS Bichette 104pa, 113wrc+, 3.8war/650
* C Kirk 98pa, 112wrc+, 5.3war/650
* RF Springer 147pa, 109wrc+, 2.7war/650
* LF Schneider 102pa, 106wrc+, 1.9war/650
* CF Varsho 147pa, 105wrc+, 4.0war/650
* DH Wagner 82pa, 104wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 3B Clement 98pa, 97wrc+, 2.7war/650

* UT Barger 101pa, 95wrc+, 1.3war/650
* IF Jimenez 56pa, 92wrc+, 2.3war/650
* OF Loperfido 110pa, 86wrc+, 0.6war/650
* C Serven 48pa, 57wrc+, 0.0war/650

* IF Martinez 41pa, 93wrc+, 1.6war/650
* PH Votto 43pa, 87wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Clase 8pa, 79wrc+, 0.0war/650
* OF Berroa 16pa, 75wrc+, 0.0war/650
* IF DeLosSantos 5pa, 75wrc+, 0.0war/650
* C Raposo 4pa, 69wrc+, 0.0war/650

* (C Jansen 90pa, 111wrc+, 3.6war/650)
* (PH Vogelbach 11pa, 110wrc+, 0.0war/650)
* (PH Turner 131pa, 109wrc+, 1.0war/650)
* (IF Falefa 131pa, 93wrc+, 2.5war/650)
* (UT Biggio 39pa, 93wrc+, 1.7war/650)
* (OF Kiermaier 42pa, 81wrc+, 1.5war/650)
John Northey - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#451566) #
I get the feeling the Jays don't see Berroa as more than Lukes v2 - a 5th OF who is a pure backup. ZiPs agrees - sees him with 400+ PA being worth just 0.1-0.2 fWAR.

So who do you give the playing time to? Varsho & Springer will be in there 95% of the time, Loperfido is projected as a 0.8-1.0 player over 500 PA (not great, but 10 times the player Berroa is viewed as). Schneider needs to play (projected at a 3+ fWAR level pre-2024). Barger projected as a 1.2 player over 450+ PA. Wagner (IF) projected at 0.5, De Los Santos at 0.5 peak, 0.1 more likely. Heck, Lukes is at 0.7-1.1 for range. Clase is projected at 1.6-2.5 over the next 3 years (growing each year) so he should probably be up and playing more than the others. Plus Clase could be a legit leadoff guy with great speed but needs to work on getting his butt on first more (.254 OBP in Buffalo so far, but 371 lifetime in the minors so I get leaving him there until he gets that going better).

So for LF I'd be looking at Schneider/Loperfido right now, Berroa as the 5th OF and Clase the likely future but not until mid-2025. Get Wagner and Barger in the lineup as often as possible. Guys like Berroa, Lukes, De Los Santos are nice to have around as backups but they will need to earn every PA they get.
Magpie - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#451567) #
he has given up on developing Berroa, Schneider, and Barger.

Well, Schneider is fourth on the team in Plate Appearances. At this point, he's not being developed. He's being exposed, I understand they need to take a look at Loperfido, and Varsho and Springer aren't going anywhere, but it would be nice to see Berroa get some run.
Magpie - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#451568) #


Rookie hazing sure has changed. Now they send out on a coffee run in full uniform.
scottt - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#451569) #
Barger is the back up at 3B for now.

Barger still has an option and won't open with the team next year. Clement and Jimenez are on the team because they have no options.

It's almost September. Battles for 4th outfielder can wait until next year.
scottt - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#451570) #
Without looking too hard, the Reds look like a franchise that can only manage a couple of years of contention between rebuilds.
They are a bit like Detroit who also had a HOF playing first for a decade.

Schneider is a pull hitter and has such struggles with pitches away as well as high fastballs.
The difference with a hitter like Paramedes is that the latter has enough plate coverage to pull outside pitches as well.

I think shorter guys see more high pitches and taller guys see more low pitches.It's hard to throw a high fastball to Judge and get a called strike.
There should be lots of high fastballs in AAA as well.
What AAA doesn't have is strike calls on balls off the plate.
christaylor - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#451572) #
On the pregame show they went over comments by Bassitt about the past off-season and a statement of clarification the interview. Nothing controversial in either case -- the Jays went all-in on Ohtani (Bassitt would know more details than any fan) as their plan and any other plausible plan was not comparable.

Would it have made the critics feel any better if Atkins or Shapiro said this obvious stuff as plainly as Bassitt?

Ducey - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#451575) #
The Ryan Burr experience is looking like it will not be repeated in 2025
greenfrog - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#451576) #
Joc Pederson is having quite the season. He just hit his 20th HR and is slashing .290/.401/.555 (wRC+ 164). That is almost as good as Ohtani's slash line of .290/.377/.613 (wRC+ 169).

Of course, Pederson is doing that as a platoon bat. Still impressive, though. I believe the Blue Jays tried to sign Pederson before they pivoted to Turner.
scottt - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#451578) #
Not sure. There might be a need to tweak something. He still got his Ks and the damage was on the fastball. He still has an option and there isn't much in AAA. If Francis can be the AL player of the week, maybe Burr can figure out a way to use his fastball.
scottt - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#451579) #
Part of the problem is finding guys willing to play here without doing something stupid like the contract the Angels gave to Rendon. Hard to believe he's making over 38M a year.
Marc Hulet - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#451581) #
Was Burr the right guy to bring in after Gausman - two pitchers that are essentially FB/SL from the right side? A different look might have been beneficial...
greenfrog - Monday, August 19 2024 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#451582) #
With Bo wanting out of Toronto and Bassitt saying he could talk for 45 minutes about all the Blue Jays’ problems (but he won’t because that wouldn’t be appropriate), will Rogers force the issue and replace one or more of Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider?

Put another way, what about the current front office and manager indicates to ownership that they are doing an effective job? I don’t see why Rogers needs to be “certain” that others would do a better job before they replace them. There is a lot of elite executive and managerial talent out there.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#451583) #
To Rogers, there is one thing that matters - profit. All other things are secondary. If the Jays are a net positive to Rogers then they'll have little incentive to make a change. If profits are lower than expected then they will likely look at changes or pressure Shapiro to make some. Yeah, it'd be nice if a WS title was #1 but only a multi-billionnaire owner does that and often their personality requires them to step in and force dumb things to happen (see Angels and Mets for good examples, plus the Tigers before their old owner died). I like how it is, fans fill the park and get the ratings high when the Jays win, thus a clear reason to be fighting to contend for Rogers with no ego mixed in.
scottt - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#451584) #
Bassitt talking about problems has nothing to do with Shapiro.

Yankees and Orioles fans are complaining about their managers as well.

When high leverage relievers are struggling and they don't have options, there isn't much that can be done.Starters are fiddling with their stuff but they feel the problem is a lack of run support.

Lots of guys have been in slumps this year, but we're past the point of doing something about that.
They need to boost the offense. If they can't sign somebody the only alternative is a trade and you have to give something to get something.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#451585) #
He said the Jays do a lot of things right but they have a couple unfixable issues. I wish we knew what he thought those were.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#451587) #
He elaborated to say the unfixable things are "fixed" things like the fact he is 36 this year or the fact Bo is injured. Shi Davidi speaks about it on Blair and Barker as he clarified some pf the comments via Bassitt.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#451589) #
The Bassitt follow-up describing the "unfixable problems" as pitchers getting older & Berrios' arm being abused, seems like PR backtracking.

That narrative doesn't take 45 minutes to describe, as Chris first alluded.

He also framed it originally that he wouldn't ever air dirty laundry from Chicago, Oakland or New York now or ever. The same with Toronto.

Pointing out that the rotation is old and potentially used up isn't some state secret that fits the original criteria.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#451590) #
Remember also that there were several unhappy players on the team after the WC2 loss to Minnesota. There seem to be a lot of players of late who have questioned the way Blue Jays management goes about its business, whether its coaching, communication, or front office decisions.

At some point, when there is enough smoke, there is probably a fire.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#451591) #
Unfixable are things like aging which he mentioned, and the fact there was nothing much on the FA market after Ohtani signed that would've helped. Going through the top 50 free agents looking at hitters (via FanGraphs)
  • Bellinger - many of us thought the Jays would chase him down post-Ohtani, his 111 wRC+ isn't great but would've been nice in LF (leaving Varsho in CF) if he would've been willing to go to LF. Just 1.5 fWAR so not a ton of extra value there.
  • Chapman - another many thought would re-sign here. 121 wRC+ so he has had a very good year, 4.2 fWAR so far. Damn he would've been nice to keep. Reports were the Jays offered the most early on, but as the winter dragged he pretty much cut the Jays out and sounds very happy in SF now.
  • Jeimer Candelario - another 3B the Jays looked at, 88 wRC+ -0.3 fWAR, phew, dodged a bullet there.
  • Jung-Hoo Lee - 84 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR - not as good as advertised
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - I never thought a reunion would happen, and it didn't. 98 wRC+ 1.2 fWAR, probably for the best.
  • Mitch Garver - a C/DH with an 84 wRC+ -0.5 fWAR. Ugh.
  • Kevin Kiermaier - we signed him. 53 wRC+ 0.3 fWAR. Sigh.
  • Jorge Soler - OF/DH 120 wRC+ 0.8 fWAR mostly DH, plus some ugly defense in LF/RF. Better than Turner.
  • Rhys Hoskins - I was high on him, 104 wRC+ 0.1 fWAR shows why I shouldn't run a team I guess.
  • Teoscar Hernández - 127 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR - dang, would've been a great fit it turns out.
  • Harrison Bader - 96 wRC+ 1.5 fWAR in CF mostly - a better version of what Kiermaier was.
  • J.D. Martinez - many here wanted him, 124 wRC+ 1.3 fWAR - better than Turner, but not enough to have changed anything.
  • Brandon Belt - no one signed him.
  • Adam Duvall - 53 wRC+ -1.1 fWAR, don't recall anyone hyping him.
  • Turner - 111 wRC+ 0.4 fWAR here in the end. 80 wRC+ since leaving, -0.1 fWAR for Seattle.
  • Michael A. Taylor - 55 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR - ugh.
  • Gary Sánchez - a catcher, 108 wRC+ 0.6 fWAR
  • Michael Brantley - a few wanted him, but he hasn't played
  • Tommy Pham - 105 wRC+ 0.4 fWAR in the OF.
  • Amed Rosario - a SS, 114 wRC+ 0.8 fWAR, ugly defense.
  • Joc Pederson - 164 wRC+ 3.0 fWAR - many here wanted him and damn if he wouldn't have been ideal. Pure DH now, but much more what we needed.
  • Tim Anderson - another SS 27 wRC+ -1.4 fWAR, totally useless.
The rest of the top 50 were pitchers. So many were 1 fWAR or less, namely no better than what we got. Big gains would've been Chapman, Teoscar really the only ones who would've moved the dial a bit, but it would've been about 6 more wins between them (if they produced here like they did in SF/LA) which would've put the Jays ahead of Tampa, just behind Boston, tied with Seattle, and in eyeshot of a playoff slot. So it was possible, but it would've taken a 3 year deal for Teoscar (his words) and Chapman, who knows if he would've signed under any circumstances.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#451592) #
Of course Pederson too - so Chapman for 3B, Teoscar in LF, and Pederson at DH would've been the perfect off-season and added 4.2, 2.5, 3.0 fWAR respectively = 9.7 wins vs Kiermaier, Turner, IKF = 0.3, 0.4, 2.0 = 2.7 wins = spread of 7 wins. Those 7 wins like I said would've put the Jays in contention but not into a playoff slot. Of course then we'd have locked into Teoscar & Chapman long term and both could flop in 2025 for all we know.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#451593) #
Here's Davis Schneider's 2023 zone hitting map.

Schneider had no trouble hitting the high fastball in and over the middle in 2023.  Indeed he killed those pitches to the tune of  slugging percentages over 1.  What he did have trouble with was the outside pitch- up, down and waist-high.  He's got short arms and had trouble reaching them.  He made some adjustments early in the year in 2024 and was able to reach them, but then for some reason, he lost focus.  His strike zone judgment has been much worse than before and he often swings without conviction and discipline. 

I don't know what's up, but I don't subscribe at all to Magpie's view of his issues.  I blame John Schneider for what I view to be Davis' loss of confidence, but that blaming is absolutely without adequate knowledge of the circumstances and really it is unfair.  The simple answer is we do not know.  However, the constant search for reasons that Davis Schneider cannot succeed has been a feature of his time in Toronto through good times and bad.  This is not what good teams do, and that open-mindedness ought to apply to all new players arriving in the organization.  
John Northey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#451594) #
For reference, Ohtani is at 5.8 fWAR so far this year, so on his own he'd have added 3 wins vs the 3 guys we signed instead (KK, Turner, IKF) while leaving the Jays hunting for options at 3B/OF. Pederson signed for $12.5 mil one year btw.

So Pederson-Teoscar-Chapman = $12.5, $23.5, $18 ($54 over 3, player opt-out each year) = $54 mil
KK/Turner/IKF = $10.5/$13/$7.5 ($15 over 2) = $31 mil
Ohtani = $700 mil ($2 mil cash this year, $68 mil deferred without interest until 2034).

Cash wise I suspect if Ohtani was signed IKF still would've been, but no idea who else to fill the OF (maybe KK, maybe someone else).
Magpie - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#451595) #
I blame John Schneider

For playing him too much, I assume.
scottt - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#451596) #
Unhappy people in Minnesota?
Merrifield was unhappy but he had 2 PA and managed one walk. He signed with Philadelphia and was dropped with an OPS of .572.
Belt seems grumpy. He couldn't get any interest this year. Maybe he wanted to play on the west coast like many others.
They lost 0-2 in the second game and there was too much focus on the 2 runs allowed and not enough on the 0 run scored which was the real problem.

Players are seldom unhappy about front office decisions. Especially with front offices that put faith in those players.
Players are unhappy when the teams don't buy enough at the deadline. Players are happy when they win. Right now they are not winning. They are trying some guys.
Me, I'm worried about Pittsburgh and Texas stealing the better draft picks.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#451597) #
Payroll for 2023 and 2014 was way too high. The 2023 team was ok and the 2024 team was bad. The 2024 team did have key injuries and key poor performances.

The 2024 & 2025 teams do have 6 potential good SPs. Hopefully the pen can be improved. Also a good D and very bad O causes you to lose a lot of low scoring games. At that is what it seemed like to me last year.

BTW we have a better winning % after the trade deadline than beforw it.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#451598) #
Unhappy people in Minnesota?

How about Seattle, where Yimi Garcia has allowed 6 runs (3 HRs) in 9 IP, and Justin Turner is hitting .193/.305/.275. If they don't make the post-season... hey, you're welcome!
scottt - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#451599) #
I don't know anything, but maybe Schneider need to crowd the plate a bit more.He's able to cover the plate, but not the balls that are called strikes and there are a lot of those.It's probably not something that can be fixed in Buffalo since those are balls there.

Looking forward, the Jays had 5 left bats in the lineup yesterday.Schneider should be able to handle lefties. These guys don't get the outside calls.That hasn't happened. He's just not doing damage when he gets a pitch to hit.
Realistically, there can be 3 guys like that at the bottom of the lineup.I don't really see full-time ABs for Schneider at 2B (Horwitz/Wagner) or in left field.
I think he'll be competing for the 4th outfielder job.

92-93 - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#451600) #
It's nice to see Vladdy at 3B tonight. The best thing the Jays can do to prepare for 2025 and beyond is play him there everyday for the rest of the season instead of trying to shoehorn Barger into the lineup.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#451601) #
I’m not convinced making Vladdy the starting third baseman moves the needle much, if at all, for the 2025 ballclub. If his defense there ends up being mediocre overall, and he’s perhaps more likely to get injured playing the position, then it doesn’t seem worth it (although having him available to play third base on occasion may be somewhat beneficial to the team).

The Blue Jays’ problems seem to be a lot bigger/deeper than can be solved by moving Vladdy across the infield.
scottt - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#451602) #
I don't think there's any plan to move Vladdy back to third but it's one way to get Horwitz, Jimenez and Wagner in the lineup.
Vladdy seems to enjoy it anyway.
scottt - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#451603) #
Right. And Eflin to the IL and the Yankees have already DFAed a reliever they acquired in a trade to replace him with Tim Mayza.
Ducey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#451605) #
Mike,

You seem to have a blind spot when it comes to Davis Schneider. His 2023 numbers are skewed by his hot start. Then he was not good to end the season.

This year he has had 107 games (thats 4th most on the team) and has an OPS+ of 83. He is a terrible OF (-11 DRS) and an average 2B.

He had an ok first 50 games, but has otherwise been terrible. He is hitting .063 in August.

And its not like he is 6"4" and a terrific athlete with lots of tools waiting to be unlocked. He is 5'9" and is not a good athlete (relatively speaking). There is a reason he was picked in the 28th round, and didnt go to college.

I dont know how any of this is the manager's fault. The player just has not been good enough. In fact, a more competent management group would have sent him down weeks ago.
Kelekin - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#451607) #
I'm one of those people who would love to give Vladdy run at 3B if it makes for the best lineup. His best defensive asset is his arm, which he can rarely show off at 1B. He will make errors, but so do plenty of 3B. Devers is a below average defender, but his bat makes up for it.

Personally I've enjoyed Horwitz at 2B, but if some combination of Wagner/Clement platooning at 2B and Horwitz at 1B (where he was considered an excellent defender in the minors) makes for the best lineup, then let's give it a go.

Of course, if we end up signing Bregman, it's all moot.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#451608) #
If they sign Bregman the Jays are really going to need to invest in tin cans. Although, the Bregman and Springer Home Hardware ads will practically write themselves.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#451609) #
I agreed with Gerry that Davis Schneider should be sent down last week.  The benching and the minimization of his role started long before his performance deteriorated (which it undoubtedly has- even in areas where he has obvious talent such as strike zone awareness).  I don't get the point of calling up a player, who then hits like Babe Ruth, and then benching him because you think he's a utility player and repeating that publicly while he's hitting like a star.  Why would you call up a player if that's what you felt about it, and weren't open to the possibility that you may have underestimated him? Can you imagine if Gibbons had said  "you know, Pillar can't hit so much and we think he's a 4th outfielder" while he's making all those circus catches?

Fangraphs says that all-in Schneider has generated 2.4 WAR in 511 PAs since his arrival a year ago.  With all his travails this year, he's still been an above-average player.  I agree that he's a below average defensive left-fielder; the reason his overall WAR number is good is that he's an above-average defender at second base, with a 111 wRC+ since his arrival. 

When a team underperforms- not one player, but an entire team- it's not really that surprising that one might look at what the manager did and see if he maybe played a role.  I'll happily concede that there's a lot more to it than that; Ross Atkins' failure to address the bullpen early on in the season was an obvious problem at the time. 


metafour - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#451613) #
This growing theory that apparently they broke Schneider by not playing him every day if loony-tunes. What, he'd still be hitting like Barry Bonds if only they just cemented him in the lineup?

Newsflash: he was still striking out 30% of the time with well below average contact rates in 2023 during his hot streak. He actually had a worse swinging strike rate (13.7%) and worse contact rates last year, than he has in 2024. This might surprise you, but in 2023 his zone contact rate was a shockingly poor 70.5%. Will Wagner by comparison is a 90%+ zone contact hitter in 2023 across AAA and MLB.

He simply went on an unsustainable run wherein everything that he actually hit was done so with picture-perfect launch angle and barrel rate. He had a barrel rate over 17% - there are only 7 hitters in all of MLB this season with a barrel percentage that high (and three of them are named Judge, Ohtani, and Soto). He had a HR/FB% over 20% - again, there are something like ~13 hitters in all of MLB this season with a HR/FB rate that high. Virtually all of them are EV-darlings who have elite power and absolutely smoke the ball. Schneider doesn't fit into that category at all, which means that it was simply a mirage (and this has been confirmed this season: his HR/FB% is back down to 9.1%, which is close to the league average).

He drastically outperformed his expected wOBA by 70+ points last season. The reason why they knew not to trust his all-of-a-sudden Herculian hitting is because the underlying metrics simply didn't support it. They let him play a lot this season and he has predictably fallen back down to earth. He does a few things well and can still be an OK to solid MLB hitter, but there is nothing or no one to "blame" here. Some of you act like you've never seen a player go on a crazy streak of performance that is completely out of line with their actual ability before. This happens in every sport from time to time. In baseball, we actually have the stats to see behind the curtain.
Ducey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#451614) #
Wow. Spiers serving up some meatballs
Nigel - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#451615) #
If Jimenez has anything close to the power that he has shown to date in the majors then he's a player.
Ducey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#451616) #
Maybe if they score 15 it will be safe to put Berroa in
Glevin - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#451617) #
Jimenez should absolutely be playing almost every day. He has show better power and worse D than I was expecting. Is he good enough to start next season? Need more AAA time? Let's find out. Incredible to me that he's getting half the playing time of Clement.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#451618) #
I am curious about Jimenez's defence. I thought he has looked very steady although the defensive metrics and Glevins eye dont support that. Where do you think he falls short?
scottt - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#451619) #
Spiers left a lot of pitches over the plate.Jimenez will only go back to AAA if Bichette comes back. He's out of option next year.No need to push him if he has a sore knee.

Nigel - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#451620) #
I agree Gerry - I have been surprised that the defensive numbers are so poor. To my untrained eye he’s looked sort of average (ish) defensively.
Glevin - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#451621) #
For me, Jimenez has not shown great range. A few balls that I feel like he should have got to or got close just went by him. It's not a ton of attempts yet but I have noticed it.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#451622) #
He is a terrible OF (-11 DRS)

Schneider is -5 DRS in OF not -11. He is -1 OAA. He's poor out there, but not terrible as claimed.

As for Jimenez at SS, he's a +1 DRS, -3 OAA, with the negative OAA all due to lack of range.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#451623) #
Jimenez was originally know as a good-glove infielder with questionable offense and I feel like that moniker followed longer than it should have. I've read enough supplementary scouting reports to suggest he's a steady middle infielder but not exactly gold glove worthy.

Maybe the knee has been acting up for longer than he's let on? I think he'll be OK at d until someone better comes along and pushes him to second.

The power is likely legit - he's been showing progression there for a couple years and his extra base hits haven't been flukey.

He's getting the Rookie squeeze on the strike zone - I've noticed it in a few games now and he had a great eye in the minors and will do very well with auto strike zones if they ever come along.

Also shout out to Loperfido for looking like a big leaguer for the first time since coming over to the Jays. Hopefully more to come.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 20 2024 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#451624) #
At this point I'd say the smart lineup for the rest of the year is...
  1. RF/DH - Springer
  2. CF - Varsho
  3. 3B/DH/1B - Vlad - if he wants to be a 3B then give him a real run at it for a month+ and see what happens
  4. 2B - Wagner (can shift, especially vs LHP)
  5. C - Kirk (Serven is #9 when starting)
  6. 1B/DH/2B - Horwitz
  7. Wherever needed - Clement
  8. LF - Loperfido (Schneider vs LHP)
  9. SS - Jimenez (should be there as often as possible)
Barger needs to be mixed in as often as possible - be it RF or 3B (give Springer/Vlad/Horwitz a day off). Berroa will be on the bench 90% of the time. I suspect the extra call-up in September will be C Raposo (on the 40 man), or mega utility De Los Santos. Sorry Lukes, as long as Berroa is here there isn't a spot for PR/emergency OF.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#451625) #
I agree it's probably a lack of range that limits Leo defensively.

But that's ok because his numbers the past couple years and in the bigs this year seem definitely good enough to become an mlb regular based on offense alone.
Ducey - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#451626) #
Leo is better defensively than Bo
scottt - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#451628) #
It seems to me that Loperfido is not very aggressive on balls in front of him. He should have the speed to catch some of those balls but plays them on a bounce.
Glevin - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#451631) #
Definitely see Loperfido as a major leaguer because his D is very good, he's fast, and he has power but whether that's an up and down 5th OFer (most likely) or a starter depends on whether he can make some swing/decision changes.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#451632) #
These playing time complaints are ridiculous. Jimenez started 13 of 14 August games before injuring his knee.

That HR he hit last night to right-centre was a very impressive swing, Chapman-esque.
Evair Montenegro - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#451633) #
Jiménez is bigger now than a couple of years ago, that should be the reason why he now has more power and less range.
Ducey - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#451634) #
So in 10 days the Jays can call up 2 more players. Who should they be?

Options:

1. Bo, if not still broken. I am assuming he is not using a roster spot?
2. Aside from Bo, De Los Santos and Cuas would be my guess. Again, I am assuming they dont want to add someone to the 40 man.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#451636) #
I would guess Jake Bloss may get a September spot and either de los Santos (less likely) or Clase... maybe Roden, but he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until 2025-26.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#451638) #
On the pure "deserves it" scale, imo it would be Roden or De Los Santos or maybe Lukes.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#451641) #
Right now ESPN has their view on free agents and costs to sign. Like last winter it is a 1 star player and a lot of meh situation.

Soto the obvious star everyone wants, $500 mil is the likely cost over 10+ years. 3-6 teams expected to be in the chase, the 2 NY's, plus the Rangers, Nationals, Giants, and Jays. Should be an interesting start to winter again, but I doubt we'll fall for the plane stuff a second time. But if a story comes up that Vlad is reserving a restaurant or something remember to take it with a lot of salt.

#2 is Corbin Burns, expected to be over $200 mil, can't see the Jays being in that market.

3B & LF are the targets here - Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Ha-Seong Kim are all in the $100-$200 mil range and reasonable targets. Cheaper targets include Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O'Neill (all expected to be sub $100 mil). From Japan there is a 25 year old 3B named Munetaka Murakami who could be on the market - in 2022 he hit 56 HR, 22 this year in 108 games. Just hitting 240/380/445 this year vs career 273/395/543 (has been in the top Japanese league from age 18). Has 666 games at 3B in his career vs 254 at 1B, so not sure on his defense, but if that power is real then he'd be a ton of fun to have at 3B with Vlad at 1B. Other players of note include Bellinger (could be on the market again), a TON of pitchers (lots of starters, but for the Jays what matters are the top relievers - Jeff Hoffman, Tanner Scott (LHP), Clay Holmes, and Carlos Estevez).

So potential fills for 3B/LF/bullpen are all out there. Soto the obvious 'woohoo' choice, but O'Neill, Hernandez, and Santander all reasonable backup choices for LF/DH. 3B is Bregman & Murakami - no way Chapman is coming back, and Kim is more of a SS than a 3B.
scottt - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#451642) #
Chapman is not coming back here. He keeps saying he wasn't comfortable in Toronto.
Bregman has a .544 OPS when hitting DH this year. He has 19 HRs but they have that box in Houston that helps right handed hitters.Kim is not what the Jays need either.
Santander looks like the best option.

A trade of Bichette for a package centered on an MLB ready catching prospect is intriguing.
That's really up to other teams though.


dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#451645) #
Yeah steer clear of Bregman and Chapman and Bellinger. Make sure to sign guys quick like Santander or Teoscar. Don't waste your time on Soto because you will need to outbid the NY teams to make it happen.

Oh yeah sign Vlad
92-93 - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#451646) #
Not mentioned by John are Pete Alonso and Christian Walker. They'll probably be shopping in the Ryan O'Hearn bin, though.
soupman - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#451650) #
If they let Soto sign in the Bronx just fold the Jays for 4-5 years. Addition by subtraction. They need to prevent the aYankres signing him because it’s basically like conceding 12 games a year in the standings, of forcing the Jays to find 12 games via other marginal assets. Just do the simple and obvious thing for a change and stop trying to be cute about it. He’s the best player of his generation and he’s 25 and he costs nothing but money which they showed they have.
Ducey - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#451653) #
Soupman

Soto gets to pick where he signs. Why would he sign in Toronto as opposed to NY? Its not going to be money. And he will make more (in any number of ways (endorsements, celebrity, starlets)) being a star in the biggest market in the world.

Ohtani and others have shown they just use TOR as leverage. Its kind of becoming a joke.

Atkins should stop wasting his time and focus on realistic targets. Immediately reaching out to a Teo is more likely to result in him signing than putting him on the back burner for 2 months chasing Soto.

Plus there are four playoff spots TOR can earn. Soto doesnt mean the Jays will never make the playoffs
Magpie - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#451654) #
He’s the best player of his generation

Would that be because Bobby Witt Jr was born after he millennium and therefore part of a different generation?
Glevin - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#451655) #
Yankees have Soto this year and they're not invincible and it's going to get worse. If they sign Soto, Yankees will have no money to spend anywhere else. They are already spending $72M a year on Judge and Stanton and $64M on Cole and Rodon and those contracts all go on another 4+ years. If you say Soto gets $45M a year, then the Yankees would be spending $180M on five players. DJLM and Stroman cost another $33.5M next year. So you're at like $215M for 7 players. Just very hard to build a team like that. Tax on going over brackets is huge.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#451657) #
Filling key roles/massive holes in a roster is very challenging. There just aren't a lot of star players that get to free agency now. Teams lock them up. Trades with money-pinching teams are really the only way to go now and that means you have to have a strong farm system. The Jays have been unable to do that, which is why trying to compete in 2025 is a fool's errand... and only threats to make matters worse. It's just not realistic in the AL East.
Kelekin - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#451658) #
The options the Jays have are interesting, because once again free agency isn't full of exciting position players that fit what we need. Many are having down years, too.

Santander is of course a solid fit, primarily as a DH.

If you want to sign a 1B, then your top player is Pete Alonso, who will want a longer deal. Then the most logical plays are Christian Walker (who might net a 3-year deal, and is a gold glover), and the most typical Jays pick would be a Goldschmidt prove-it deal.

For 3B, if you don't get Bregman, there's really not much else unless Chapman and Suarez opt-out.

If you want to get creative and don't go after someone like Teoscar in the OF, you could look at someone like Tyler O'Neill as a platoon option. An O'Neill/Pederson platoon would be a dream.

I think Loperfido and Clase need time, with Roden potentially being the most ready corner outfield bat in our system. But the Jays aren't going to be willing to rely on a plethora of rookies with the pressure on the FO.

Lots to think about, but as I said earlier I definitely love the fact there are multiple ways to attack the problem if we do end up with Vlad spending more time at 3B, Horwitz at 1B, and running Wagner/Clement at 2B.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#451659) #
"Would that be because Bobby Witt Jr was born after he millennium and therefore part of a different generation?"

You're comparing Witt's long track record to World Series Champion Juan Soto's?
John Northey - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#451660) #
Soto would be sweet - he has a total of 35.9 bWAR over 7 seasons = 5.1 per year (and that includes COVID 2020, and his age 19 ML season). He is having his second 7+ WAR season right now. A 5 WAR player is worth $45-50 mil easily. Being from the Dominican it is entirely likely he grew up a fan of Encarnación & Bautista, maybe Vlad Sr too. I figure if the Jays are the high bidder he wouldn't hesitate to come here, especially if Vlad gives a solid push to him to come. If he signs a 10+ year deal then odds are he'd go to the HOF wearing the hat of whoever signs him.

Titles are important, cash is important, but so is lifestyle and being happy with your family. The Jays have made that a key thing - you read it all the time in comments from players about how much they love the atmosphere here vs elsewhere. Gausman talks about it often, as do others who've bounced around over the years thus have strong knowledge of the Jays vs others. The Yankees carry a lot of weight thanks to the history there and the knowledge they will always spend to win. The Mets have cash up the wazoo. I could see him going to the Mets due to pure cash reasons. But the Jays have to be there too - ideally they negotiate with him and keep chasing others too and let them know that Soto is their ideal (the players aren't idiots) but any of Teoscar, Santander, O'Neill could work as a backup plan (3 years $20-25 mil per might do it for them). This isn't as one-choice as the Ohtani thing was - last winter it was Ohtani or Soto or nothing.

I didn't list Pete Alonso or Christian Walker as neither are good fits. Either might fit if you feel safe putting Vlad at 3B, but I can't see the Jays doing that realistically. Walker is a weaker fit but neither is a 'wow' to me - they'd both be in the Tucker slot IMO - guys you sign if you run out of other options if you are the Jays. Goldschmidt is another like that - but older and having a poor year (2 years ago a 177 OPS+, 87 this year at 36), so more likely to be kicking around in February/March when the Jays might feel stuck if all else fails.

It'll be an interesting winter - do they get Vlad on the dotted line? Do they trade Bo? Do they chase Soto or other big free agents? Do they sign another starting pitcher to lock in a solid top 4? Who the heck do they sign to fill the pen and backup catcher? Lots of possibilities.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#451662) #
Soto would be sweet

How many other fan sites are saying the same thing (and are setting themselves up for disappointment)?

Soto seems to really relish the spotlight and none is bigger than the one in the Bronx. I know the Yankees have tried telegraphing the possibility that they won't necessarily be the highest bidder, and, yes, this is not your parents' Steinbrenner in charge any more. But... it would be difficult to picture him not signing there. Very difficult.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#451663) #
The Yankees might be able to figure out a deferred payment plan to make it work, as LAD did with Ohtani.

I wouldn't rule out Toronto as a destination for Soto, but it seems unlikely. It might help persuade Soto if the Blue Jays had already locked up VGJ for the next eight or ten years.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#451664) #
it would be difficult to picture him not signing there.

I always figured - he's played on three different teams these last three seasons. Does he really want to make it four teams in four years? Seems unlikely.

Even so... while I'd much, much rather have Bobby Witt (I think I'd also rather have Gunnar Henderson, to be honest) Witt will never, never be available and Soto will be. No harm in kicking the tires. Just don't do that and nothing else all winter.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#451665) #
Thankfully, I don't think that the average fan will put up with another marketing offseason where "our plan is to sign Ohtani/Soto and when that fails don't blame us because we tried". Signing Ohtani was never a viable plan so here's hoping that this offseason there is a viable plan that involves doing something. I think competing in 2025 is a fools errand but if the plan to compete is, for example, signing Santander and signing/trading for a couple of relievers on shortish deal then that's something that I can get behind. Its highly likely to fail but its: a) a plan that can actually be executed; b) a plan that actually attempts to do something; and c) won't impair the ability to compete down the road. Andyouneverknow maybe everything goes the Jays way.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#451666) #
It's great to see Vladdy at 3B again tonight. Play him there until he proves he can't handle it (he took care of two routine plays last night). It opens up so many more trade/FA options for this winter if he can play there regularly.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#451667) #
Passan was on the Fan 590 today. He noted that Vladdy was "bad" at third base when he played there several years ago. He was clearly skeptical about Vladdy's ability to play the position competently on a regular basis going forward. He did acknowledge that VGJ would be a tremendously valuable player (who would command a huge contract) if it turned out that he was solid defensively at third base.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#451668) #
for funzies:

* Vlad @1B: 442pa, 3.6war, 5.3war/650
* Vlad @DH: 75pa, 0.2war, 1.7war/650
* Vlad @3B: 29pa, 0.3war, 6.7war/650
uglyone - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#451670) #
Votto retired.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#451671) #
That Boomtown Rats song up top is really appropriate now. Votto must have set the Reds series as a personal deadline to hang it up. I’ll always remember the homer he hit for Canada in the WBC at the Dome against the US.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#451672) #
Joey was hitting .143 for Buffalo with one extra base hit in 42 AB's.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#451673) #
I get that Clement is at an age that he's no prospect. I think Magpie said he was best suited to being the team's 5th INF. That, of course, is entirely possible and may be the most likely outcome. But I'm just not sure that that is his ceiling. There's nothing that he does at an elite level but man there are a whole bunch of good baseball things that he does at a pretty good level.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#451676) #
Clement is objectively old, but he also reinvented himself as a hitter at the age of 27, so it's possible there's still more there.  And there's at least one thing he does at an elite level: Among MLB hitters with at least 300 PAs, he's got the second-lowest K%. Obviously he won't take a walk, but he has some pop and a very nice glove. Oh, and he's dirt cheap for a few years.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#451678) #
Joey was hitting .143 for Buffalo with one extra base hit in 42 AB's.

"I'm just not good anymore."
soupman - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#451679) #
Pitch and innings limit rant incoming:

Why remove your (arguably) best pitcher to put in one of the relievers that is collectively second worst in baseball…and worse than it was a month ago?

I wrote that as the pull was happening. Said the same thing last time they pulled YRod
John Northey - Wednesday, August 21 2024 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#451681) #
Well, stats before today - -1 DRS for Vlad in 60 innings vs -3 in 824 for 2019. So worse there, but super variable still at this point (could be -0.5 to -1.4, big spread). His UZR/150 is at 0.0 this year vs -14.6 in 2019 - drastic improvement but UZR was seen as useless with shifting, but now that shifting has reduced it might be useful again. OAA -1 this year, -20 in 2019 - probably a slight improvement, but slight. FRV (statcast overall fielding nubmer) was -15, now -1 so an improvement but is it enough? Maybe. -1 over 60 innings vs 1000 for a normal season (x16.7 = -15.7 or about 1-2 wins lost on defense). His 1B numbers are cumulative -23 over 4503 innings or -5 over 1000 innings (1/2 a win). So it would be about half a win by statcast figures using Vlad at 3B vs 1B. Of course, the other end of the equation is who plays 1B instead, or who plays 3B instead?

If Vlad at 3B then 1B is probably Horwitz - 1.1 fWAR this year over 247 PA, but on defense Horwitz is a mixed bag - 2B is either bad (-5 DRS) or good (1 FRV), 1B is decent (0 FRV) but nothing to write home about. 3B is probably Clement 1.5 fWAR this year (316 PA) - solid D at 3B with 9 DRS, 2 FRV. If those are the options then you might as well keep Vlad at 1B. But if they sign someone to play 3B or 1B this winter then moving Vlad to whichever looks to be a minimal shift (1/2 a win over a season). Bregman at 3B has been a 3.3 fWAR player this year, Chapman 4.2 (sigh). The others at 3+ are Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Alec Brohm, Josh Smith - none of which are free agents. At 1B Vlad leads in fWAR, then comes Harper, Freeman, then in the 2's Walker, Santana, Salvador Perez, Busch, then just shy of 2 is Pete Alonzo. Walker & Alonzo are free agents, but would they add enough to be worth what they'll demand? My gut says no.

So what is likely? If Vlad can keep going at a decent level at 3B for the rest of 2024 then he gets it for 2025 with Clement the backup and Barger in AAA hoping for a shot, or in LF if he can win it over all the other guys fighting for it. 1B would be Horwitz plus anyone the Jays can sign cheaply I suspect, with Springer likely to be given a shot at 1B as well so the kids can get more time in RF. Lots of moving pieces.
Kelekin - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#451683) #
"Clement is objectively old, but he also reinvented himself as a hitter at the age of 27, so it's possible there's still more there."

Very true. It's always easier to find ways to write people off for not having quick success, but in a game where you need to constantly adjust, all it takes is that one thing to click. There are lots of talented players that only started making it work at 26-27, but are often written off as AAAA players or that they can't make a contribution. Christian Walker failed the first four years he was called up and didn't stick until 2019. Now he's a career .795 OPS with two gold gloves.

It's one of the many things I love about baseball.
scottt - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#451684) #
Third base has a large positive WAR adjustment and first base a large negative one. Chapman has a .776 OPS. That doesn't move the bar here.Alonso is on track to hit another 30 HR this year. What would add enough to be worth it? 50 HR?
The Mets are one of the teams that could go after Soto. The owner there doesn't care about the cost and Soto would certainly move the needle.
I wonder if one of the things that Chapman likes is hitting between 2 left bats.
With all the left bats on most rosters, are there as many balls smoked to third base? 
scottt - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#451685) #
I am not sure about stars not making it to free agency. Othani made it. Soto.
Some teams try to lock them up, others try to trade them because they can't afford them.
Once traded, guys are close enough to free agency to stay unsigned if they want.Baltimore hasn't extended anybody and it's likely too late for most of them.

If the Jays had top prospects to trade, they would be better served keeping them.
The Jays had enough prospects to get Chapman and Berrios.Chapman wasn't worth extending.
There are a few stars on really bad teams but they don't necessarily match what the Jays need.The Jays need a solid left bat who can hit 30+ HR to hit behind Guerrero. 
bpoz - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#451687) #
IMO any FA star will want a 4-6 year expensive contract. I don't know if the Jays will commit to that. Currently Springer 36 in 2026, Gausman 35 in 2026 and Bassit 36 in 2025 all making $20+mil which may be cheap compared to 2025 FAs. We probably keep Gausman & Bassit to allow us to compete since they are both pretty good. Springer IMO looks like he is not earning his money which I expected. But he is doing better compared to G Stanton in NY. I expect Berrios to opt out when he can in hopes of getting a better contract.

I cannot use the words expect & presume regarding plans on how the Jays will get talent so I will wait & see.

Miggy was a very long contract in Detroit. Quite clearly it was a bad contract as it approached its end. There are other examples.
Glevin - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#451688) #
Jays deserve credit for Clement and he looks like a player of some sort but his profile is so odd that it's hard to see long-term success. There are only 3 players with under 3% walk and over 200 PAs this year. If you look at the last 25 years, there is 1 player with over 1,000 ABs with under a 3% BB (Hanser Alberto).

I hate the idea of Vlad at 3B full-time. Sure, it makes it easier to sign someone but he's bad there and you really narrow your options. Really, he should be a DH most of the time and Horwitz should be at 1B. I'd much rather go with McAdoo, Clement, Barger, Orelvis at 3B which has a good chance of being fine at the position and keep Vlad at 1B.

I think chances are very good Jays trade Bo this off-season. Jimenez and Clement should be fine at SS but I also think Kim would be a great fit with the team.
92-93 - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#451691) #
What accounts for the huge difference between OAA and DRS? DRS thinks Vladdy was better in '19 than Devers is this year, but Devers has a season (also '19) with a bad DRS and the 2nd best OAA.

It certainly looks like Chapman was worth extending.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#451692) #
So, if we like signed the top 5 relievers available in FA and one strong LHB?
John Northey - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#451694) #
Ugh. Burr starts tonight - no word on who gets the other 2 outs in the first inning. I joke, but only slightly.
hypobole - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#451696) #
"What accounts for the huge difference between OAA and DRS?"

Not surprised this didn't get an answer. We quote numbers and really have little idea of how the numbers come about, myself included. I do know OAA is the best at what it does, but there are plays, like turning a DP, that it doesn't address. In the outfield a poor fielder with a great arm should have a much better DRS than OAA, because all OAA measures is catch probability. DRS tries to capture everything.

One of the DRS problems is when fielders aren't playing straight up. It unfairly penalises when the ball is hit to a vacated spot and unfairly rewards when the shifting causes a ball that would ordinarily be a hit be turned into an easy out.



Magpie - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#451698) #
I hate the idea of Vlad at 3B full-time.

I'm not in love with the idea myself. But when the season ends, we may discover that the team's three best hitters are Guerrero, Spencer Horwitz, and Will Wagner. Finding a defensive configuration that gets all three of them into the lineup is a challenge.

As I'm not that keen on Horwitz at first base, I'd like to see what Wagner looks like at third.

Anyway, last season Jays third basemen made 443 outs, mostly by the great Matt Chapman. In 2019, with Vlad at third, they made 435 outs. This season, a group led by Clement is on pace to make 446 outs.

Maybe it's just not that important, especially on a pitching staff loaded with RH flyball pitchers.
Nigel - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#451699) #
The publicly available defensive metrics shouldn't really even be used until the player has accumulated a sufficient number of plays to make the data meaningful. It's way too early to say, for example, that Jimenez is a below average defender based on the defensive metrics (he may well be but the sample size is too small to reach that conclusion from the metrics). They are also best utilized together (in my view). Just as, to the extent the metric has value, you are best to average the fWAR and bWAR numbers because of the sometimes huge differences in defensive value being attributed to a player between the two systems.
soupman - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#451700) #
I don't share your certainty, and I'm not sure what the source of it is. Soto's agent is Boras. Boras' clients follow the money. Plain and simple. ARod went to...TEXAS? what? The list goes on. Boras guys follow the money. All the Jays have to do is get stupider than the last team standing.

Also limping into the playoffs is not my idea of a strategy worth supporting given the position of ownership and the state of the club. Remember how stoked Jays nation was on the "playoff" team last year?

Do you think Yankees fans are worried about what they gave up to get Soto for 1 year? I see them enjoying the ride. Can this franchise use its advantages to field a competitive team while cable packages are still a thing anyone buys?

soupman - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#451701) #
The teams that can afford Soto today are:
Toronto (corporate oligarchs, vertically integrated, demonstrated finalists for Ohtani)
Mets (Cohen has unlimited money spell)
Dodgers (More finance money - richest ownership, Ohtani money deferred, demonstrated willingness to spend no matter what)

There really is no other place he can go without teams spending beyond their owners' means, including the Yankees. I'll be more surprised if he re-signs in the Bronx than if he's a Blue Jays, but if I had to put money on it I think he moves to Queens. $600/15 would be my guess.
soupman - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#451702) #
On top of that they are OLD. Judge is 32 already, and that's the youngster of the group. This NYY iteration, last year, was nominally above .500. Soto is a difference maker, and the lineup with Soto and Vlad in the middle is a LOT harder to handle than one with the swing-and-miss of Varsho in there. Soto will also follow the same aging curve as Vlad, most likely. So, locking both in for a decade, you have a reasonable chance of competing every year for the next decade.

It really makes no sense trying to out "smart" other teams when the smartest move is to just pay the cost of signing the best player to hit free agency under 26y/o since ARod almost a quarter century ago. You simply don't get the chance to add the best bat in baseball before they enter their peak very often. The ARod deal was club friendly by the end of it.

I don't get Jays fans pretending that this ownership isn't the third richest in baseball, and lets it get away for 20 years of not spending because "smart" or something. The stupidest thing the Jays can do is allow the Yankees to re-sign Soto. If nothing else they need to bully the Yankees (less powerful financially) off landing him. Historically, the Jays have never used their ability to do this. And this thread seems to think that it's "embarrassing" to have Ohtani want to play in LA instead of here. Soto is following the money, but even if the Jays miss out - making him leave the division is easily in their power. Not only that, the more you make it cost other teams, the more it hurts the smaller clubs.

Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#451704) #
Funny to see Scott Servais get the boot while Schneider is still hanging on despite the Jays crashing and burning even worse than Seattle.
Magpie - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#451705) #
Well, when your deadline moves don’t work out, someone has to take a walk and it’s always better if it’s someone else.
92-93 - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#451706) #
Vladdy touched the ball only 3 times last night. The first was a routine pop up, the second a grounder that Jimenez was charged an error on for not receiving the throw, and the 3rd a routine grounder he looked good on. The throw to 2B could definitely have been more accurate, it was a bit low.

With strikeouts rising annually it gets easier to hide a lesser glove to improve your team's offense. Earlier in the season I noticed that the 3B wasn't touching the ball much when Gausman was on the mound.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#451707) #
I think we have all pretty much pegged Clement as a great backup, but perhaps we should think more about what he's shown. He's been a league-average hitter this year, and both Zips and Steamer think he'll continue to be one. He's a faster runner than you'd think (82nd percentile) and has been a positive on the bases. Defensively, both DRS and OAA love him both at 3B and at SS, although that's a fairly small sample at SS.

If he's an average hitter with above-average defence, either at short or third, that adds up to an above-average starter, not a utility guy. And indeed he's produced at a 3.5 WAR/650 pace this year.
metafour - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#451708) #
Funny to see Scott Servais get the boot while Schneider is still hanging on despite the Jays crashing and burning even worse than Seattle.
This is a weird take. Seattle was 10 games up on their division in ~mid-June and they are now sitting with just 13% odds at making the playoffs (per Fangraphs). That is a considerably bigger "collapse" than the Jays who were never even in a position to make the playoffs in the first place.
Ducey - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#451710) #
Soto to Toronto makes no sense.

1. They have a budget, which they were willing to depart from for Ohtani. He is special given his worldwide appeal. There is no evidence they would for Soto

2. They basically have no one else signed longterm. They have Berrios, then Gausman (FA after '26), and then Bassitt, Green, Bassitt, Bo and Vlad all free agents after 2025.

3. Their farm system sucks. We are getting excited about guys who are likely to be 1 WAR players if we are lucky. There is little in the way of pitching.

So who is Soto playing with? If they want to supplement him going forward, they need to sign a bunch of high end starters and a couple of big bats (maybe Vlad), and that is a) not something they have shown they can do consistently and b) likely cannot afford.

Soto will know all of this. He could just stay in NY with Judge and a team that has no problem attracting high end players.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#451711) #
Right, because we can only look at their record earlier in the year to pretend that they really were a .500 pr worse team all along. No sense paying attention to the performances of the players, coaching or front office as a whole and definitely no point in looking to last year when assessing whether or not this team collapsed this year.

Toronto had a bigger collapse than SEA. This organization went from playoff team to basement dweller. They have Bichette and Bassitt questioning th front office and the performances have been mostly terrible. To say SEA had had a bigger fallback is just a game with numbers.

Soupman - the more money someone makes the less important it is where they are based. If yoj could make 350 million in California or 400 million in Toronto where would you pick? What if it was 600 million in LA and 700 million in Toronto? The reality is that the final offers will likely all be between 50 million of one another similar to the Ohtani sweepstakes. If Soto get 500-550 million offers from three teams I think he will go the the spot that is most comfortable for him and his family and "lose" the 50 million difference. If it was me i'd pick a penthouse in NYC and 50 million less over California or Toronto.

Toronto cant "bully" other teams regarding Soto. Soto decides. They "bullied'l LA and just ended up getting Ohtani more money for himself at his place of choice.
Hodgie - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#451714) #
Jerry Dipoto the other day in the Athletic, when asked how responsible he was for the Mariners' current slide ....

“Very. Ultimately the dirt roads lead back to putting the roster together, and that’s me. I don’t want to minimize the contributions of (general manager) Justin (Hollander), our scouts. But ultimately the responsibility is mine.”

I guess when he also said in the same article that no one was blameless, he should have clarified that only some were accountable.

99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#451715) #
Metafour, I’ve been in line with your past few posts. Seattle is 1-8 over its past 9 games. That’s why Servais is out. For what it’s worth, the Jays are 9-9 in August
92-93 - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#451716) #
Let's just hope Steve Cohen goes crazy and steals Soto from the Yankees.
Nigel - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#451717) #
Servais is out because everyone in Seatlle believes that Dipoto is out if they don't make the playoffs this year. That's a Hail Mary move to save the President of Baseball Ops job. Totally different situation in Toronto.
soupman - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#451720) #
1. Where did you get this idea? People say this, but most evidence is that people watch the blue jays when they win and tune out when they don't. The Angels lost Ohtani and haven't seen attendance drop. Would love to see their financials or any actual #s supporting these claims. Sounds a lot like Leafs fans coping suggesting that "endorsements" will offset taxation deltas for free agents (spoiler alert: they don't).

2. Those players are old and none of them are on the level of Soto. They're already declining. Not having them signed long term is more of a reason you are able to sign Soto since there are not a plethora of bad contracts on the books like the Yankees have. That's more a reason why the Yankees will not be able to sign Soto than why the Jays will not.

3. The farm sucks...so...instead of adding one of the best players in baseball to fill a role for 10+ years, you...avoid doing that? Why? it doesn't make sense. Again your reasoning supports signing Soto.

Boras is Soto's agent. Boras' clients sign where they get paid the highest because that gets Boras paid the most. Toronto merely needs to offer more money and Soto will come play here. It makes no sense why you're at such pains to justify not doing the most obvious thing that every team should wish to do. More so for the Jays that have watched him tear up their division and gift the Yankees 7-9 wins in the standings.

soupman - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#451722) #
Ohtani isn't a Boras client. Soto is. ARod signed in Texas. Maddox to Atlanta. Kevin Brown to the Dodgers during their playoff drought. Beltre to Seattle. Harper to Philly. The list is long. If Toronto isn't Philly or Atlanta or Seattle tier...who is? It's so tiring having Jays posters fansplain how poor Rogers is and why players won't come here. Demonstrably players go where they get paid, ESPECIALLY when Boras is your agent.

Boras is going to chase the money. Unlike Beeston that hated Boras and refused to deal with him, I think after Caudill, Atkins and Shapiro have signed a bunch of his guys including Kikuchi.

And I don't care who you are. $50million is not couch change, plus Toronto is a world class city, imo. I'd much sooner live in Toronto than Boston or many of the other markets that people seem to think are preferable.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 22 2024 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#451730) #
Toronto is a world class city and The Guardians are a world class American Central team.
hypobole - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#451732) #
Every year The Athletic polls actual MLB players. From this year:

"Which team would you sign with if contracts, state taxes and rosters were not a factor?"

#1 Atlanta 12.7%
#2 Boston 9.3%

In total 18 teams received at least 2.3% of the vote. Toronto was not one of those 18 teams. Toronto was one of 7 teams that did get a mention in the "others receiving votes section.

So is it our FO that's to blame?

"What organizations have bad reputations among players?"

#1 A's
#2 White Sox
#3 Angels

12 teams in total received at least 2 votes. Toronto was not one of those 12. 8 others received at least 1 vote. Toronto was not one of those 8 either.

jerjapan - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#451736) #
Great post Hypo.  I'm no fan, overall, of our regime, but Shapiro doesn't get enough credit for this.  The players like the renos, the elite labs and such. 

I don't think we had 'no shot' at Ohtani for those reasons you mentioned, just like we might have a shot at Soto.  I think Toronto is in that second tier - desirable locations, but not, most desirable on most players' lists.  If we were winning regularly though?  Filling the dome?  The whole 'national team' vibe that follows the Jays on the road?  As player money goes up and the world gets smaller, those old barriers to players coming here are in decline.

I hope we resign Vlad, go after Soto, give Bo a chance at a rebound season and see how that plays out. 

I don't particularly want to spend money on say, Santander.  We have a ton of AAA guys to sort through, and a ton of versatility to leverage the best of those players.  Mix and match the lineup around Vlad and Bo.  No good-not-great players added, unless known commodities like Jansen want to come back at good value. 

If we can't add an elite bat, I'd be pretty happy to spend a lot on the pen, despite the whole 'shake a tree, find a reliever' premise.  They are so easily traded, moreso with everyone seemingly thinking they can make the playoffs. 

I'd be happy to play in the international FA waters too.  Ultimately, this feels like the offseason for our conservative regime to forget about floor and focus on ceiling.  Not just one myopic focus on one player, but rather a role the dice all-round. 

That, or for a new regime. 
Nigel - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#451744) #
I work in an organization with significant US and Canadian operations. The reality is that a material portion of our US employees could not be enticed to move to Canada under any circumstances. I know this from actual real world circumstances. The reasons are varied and I will not make this political but that is a fact of life that the Jays and other Canadian based pro sports teams have to live with.
jerjapan - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#451748) #
Sure, Nigel, no doubt, but these are elite athletes, already used to living in different places as part of work, looking for insane financial rewards.  Not sure the average American Joe is relevant? 


hypobole - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#451749) #
Jose Bautista is in a dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency as are Donaldson and Russ Martin, though for 2 different reasons. But both cases involve the use of CSA's to minimise the taxes they paid while playing here.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/report-ex-blue-jays-bautista-donaldson-martin-in-battle-with-cra-over-millions-181531186.html?guccounter=1

John Tavares of the Leafs is also in a tax dispute with the CRA. There was an article in the Athletic on this while also bringing up the Jays cases. It quoted a tax lawyer who tells his clients to sign "anywhere but Canada".

Nigel - Friday, August 23 2024 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#451752) #
I was about to type the same thing - high paid athletes who can choose to live anywhere have more reasons (from a tax perspective) to live in various places in the US not Canada. Secondly, the reality of most US born baseball players is that they do not have an "international lifestyle background" - quite the reverse in fact.
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