Roden's homer broke a 5-5 tie in the 9th and went 400 feet to straight-away right field..

Love it.

If Schneider goes down who is the backup at 2B to mix with Wagner or Horwitz? Both hit LH so they'd want a RH or switch hitter to mix in. Clement is in a mix/match at 3B with Barger as is, so Berroa would need to go down too so you could have an IF and an OF come up if Roden is the OF. Luis De Los Santos could be it. Roden though is a LH bat too so he couldn't mix/match as easily with Loperfido (LH) either. Jonatan Clase is a switch hitter so he could mix in easier than Roden. Roden also isn't on the 40 man (2 open slots I think right now).

I suspect no one (hitting wise) goes down as it is almost September when they can add another hitter without sending anyone down. I'd guess either Lukes or De Los Santos gets the call as a pure backup there to get service time. Or they call up Votto to get him a few PA as a Jay before he retires (looking bad in AAA though so it'd be a pure 'we are trying to be nice' or 'give the fans a chance to see a Canadian HOF player get his final PA' callup).

John
Assuming his experiments with pharmaceuticals are over and his career picks back up, the obvious platoon partner at 2B next year would be Orelvis.

Davis S is still in the picture, too.

Its interesting. Suddenly they have a lot of competition everywhere.

I expect the 40 man roster to change between the end of the WS and the late Nov deadline for adding players to protect from the rule 5 draft.

2021 drafted players like Will Wagner have already been added. Palmegiani may not be protected. Dasan Brown & Rainer Nunez may be added because they are both 6 year minor league players. I expect the Jays will talk to them and try to convince them not to leave. But they may be drafted. We will find out. Other 2021 college draftees are Tiedemann, Dallas, Jeunger, C Cooke, Trenton Wallace and J Burnette that I like. Tiedemann should get protected because he can be put on the 60 day DL during ST. Everyone else would probably be returned if drafted. Fluharty, Roden and Kasevich don't have to be protected. They could be called up quickly in 2025.

Right now we are having tryouts for 2025. Some will make it and the others have options left. I am very confident Horwitz makes it because he is earning his spot on next years team. Everyone else I have very little idea.

Nunez is not worth a spot. Neither is Brown at this point. There are better players to draft. The real question marks are Paulino and Pirango.

Tiedemann doesn't have to be added. Trenton Wallace and Chad Dallas need protection. Pardinho could be targetted if he figures out AAA. Potential depth starters are valuable, like Francis. Relievers need to be good enough to stick. The Jays haven't lost anyone of note in a long time. The low system ranking probably helps here.

"Nunez is not worth a spot. Neither is Brown at this point. There are better players to draft. The real question marks are Paulino and Pirango."

Dasan Brown is absolutely worth a protect. They have a ton of players that can come off the 40-man easily. Burr, Cuas, Espino, Frias, Nance, Yerry Rodriguez, Raposo, Serven, and that's not mentioning all the close players like Lukes who has hit in minors but will be 30 next season and never hit in majors), Berroa, De Los Santos, Little, Pop (Little Pop could be new team name). Plus Yarbough is free agent and they will likely be looking to move Bo. Jays can get down to low 30s easily and protect all the guys they want. I don't think we'll see Roden up this year because of this though and that's completely fine. Jays have enough OFers they should get a look at.

I've been a bit less enthusiastic than some about Brown but he does deserve a spot.

By definition, a bad major league team with a mediocre to poor minor league system has zero 40 man roster problems.

You understood my concerns Glevin as others did as well I presume.

If Dasan Brown is protected then he gets to burn options for 2025,26 and 27. For 2019 45ABs, 0 in 2020. He should have 100ABs more this year so 133ABs. He has played 4 minor league seasons so far. Hope he can improve enough over the next 3 seasons.

I find the Barger usage extremely frustrating. 7 starts in August and I think a few of them have been against lefties. Let him play every day and see if he can figure out major league pitching because as of right now, his performance doesn't tell you anything. I will also continue to beat the drum of "Clement should not be playing every day when you're trying to figure out this team's future" . He is second in AB in August and has an 84 WRC+. Jimenez has a 131 WRC+ in August and has 44 abs. Barger has literally half the abs Clement does. Just don't get it.

Nunez and Brown are both interesting enough to keep.

If we have enough better prospects that we can't keep them that's fine, but i'd be surprised if that was true.

Brown needs to be protected from Rule 5 but not minor league free agency.

Players who signed prior to 2023 have seven years of protection from free agency - their partial first year and then six full years.

The rules changed with the new milb union starting in 2023. Players 19 or older are free agents after six years, including their partial signing year. Players under 19 are still are the seven years including any potential partial signing year (caveat being if they signed after the minor league seasons ended then they're considered to have signed contracts starting the next year).

Also to qualify for a full year in the minors (for MiLB free agency), you must have been on an active roster for at least 90 days. This probably impacts potential for an extra option year.

Burr is actually worth keeping. He has an elite slider and another option.
The point is not to use an option on a player unless he's in danger of being lost.There is no way Brown can survive on an MLB roster.
Also, he's like the 8th or 9th outfielder at the moment.

Every reliever that is removed from the 40 roster will have to be replaced with another reliever, at which point  Brown would have to be DFAed.It doesn't matter that those relievers won't be Yarbrough, Cuas or Nance.Serven will have to be replaced with another catcher and they will need a spot for a AAA catcher before long, so at best, they can use that slot for a fringe reliever, not a position player who will be lost on waivers.
There are only 14 spots on the 40 roster outside of the 26 roster.Let say half of those go to pitchers that leaves 7 spots.1 is needed for the backup catcher. That leaves 6,Clase needs one spot. Barger and Berroa (or 2 other guys) will go back to AAA once they sign MLB players.That leaves 3 spots.
Guy who needs to be added: Palmegiani, Paulino, Pinango, Orelvis Martinez, Dasan Brown, Nunez, Clarke, Tirotta, Lantigua, Robertson, De Jesus and Gabriel Martinez.

There are only 14 guys on the reserve roster in the minors.When people rank system, they look at 50+ players and only a handful of these guys stand up and get 55+ rankings.Also, normally only the guys in AA or AAA are added to the 40 roster.When guys in A ball are added it literally waste a spot as those guys are never called when the team needs a replacement.
Weather the team is bad or good has no effect on the 40 roster.
Team with poorly ranked systems have 40 roster problem all the time.That's why Pearson was traded. That's why Zulueta was lost for nothing.

AAA

Young:

* IF Martinez (22): 269pa, 8.9b%, 24.2k%, .288bip, .260avg, .264iso, 120wrc+
* OF Clase (22): 339pa, 12.7b%, 25.4k%, .325bip, .263avg, .204iso, 102wrc+

both good lines for younger guys but i hope Clase can get a bit hotter the rest of the way.


Of age:

* IF Jimenez (23): 226pa, 13.3b%, 15.0k%, .300bip, .271avg, .160iso, 130wrc+
* IF Kasevich (23): 47pa, 2.1b%, 8.5k%, .366bip, .348avg, .087iso, 108wrc+

Leo might never be back. Kasevich continues a solid start but i'm a skeptic.


Slightly old:

* UT Barger (24): 249pa, 16.1b%, 19.3k%, .299bip, .260avg, .206iso, 126wrc+
* OF Roden (24): 173pa, 12.7b%, 15.0k%, .297bip, .272avg, .163iso, 110wrc+

Barger's continued struggles in the bigs are frustrating. I don't really want to see him sent back down at his age and his level of AAA performance but he's not earnig his spot.

Roden continues surging and is probably now on the verge of a deserved callup. Nice to see him recover after a very disappointing start this year.


Older not-really-prospects:

* 1B Horwitz (26): 259pa, 17.0b%, 15.8k%, .401bip, .335avg, .179iso, 159wrc+
* IF DeLosSantos (26): 115pa, 14.8b%, 20.0k%, .323bip, .283avg, .207iso, 136wrc+
* IF Wagner (25): 355pa, 16.6b%, 10.4k%, .339bip, .315avg, .129iso, 129wrc+
* OF Loperfido (25): 189pa, 11.1b%, 28.0k%, .316bip, .272avg, .296iso, 122wrc+
* OF Berroa (25): 239pa, 12.1b%, 23.8k%, .373bip, .296avg, .160so, 122wrc+
* 1B Tirotta (25): 251pa, 14.3b%, 25.9k%, .311bip, .248avg, .199iso, 118wrc+
* C Clarke (26): 134pa, 14.9b%, 14.9k%, .300bip, .261avg, .108iso, 104wrc+

DLS continues being red hot. Wagner might never be back down. Loperfido and Berroa struggling in the bigs and didn't exactly dominate in AAA - these guys shouldn't be handed anything imo. Tirotta continues falling after a hot start. Clarke might be playing himself into the catcher picture, though that's more a statement on our catching picture.


Vets

* OF Lukes (29): 201pa, 10.0b%, 14.9k%, .373bip, .335avg, .156iso, 137wrc+
* C Serven (29): 159pa, 16.4b%, 28.9k%, .386bip, .265avg, .114iso, 110wrc+
* DH Votto (40): 47pa, 14.9b%, 42.6k%, .263bip, .154avg, .077iso, 39wrc+

Lukes should probably be up tbh. He's always deserved playing time as long as he's been here and is likely better than most of our current OF.

Unfortunately looks like Votto can't even earn a career send off this year. might get one anyways tho.





AA

Young:

* IF Paulino (21): 278pa, 10.4b%, 21.6k%, .335bip, .263avg, .128iso, 112wrc+

are we going to see him this year?


Of age:

* IF McAdoo (22): 168pa, 12.5b%, 25.6k%, .316bip, .257avg, .208iso, 131wrc+
* IF Dejesus (22): 410pa, 8.3b%, 28.0k%, .357bip, .259avg, .113iso, 101wrc+
* OF Pinango (22): 275pa, 10.9b%, 21.5k%, .283bip, .227avg, .120iso, 98wrc+
* OF Brown (22): 36pa, 5.6b%, 30.6k%, .318bip, .212avg, .091iso, 59wrc+

McAdoo looks like a good one. Dejesus continues to improve steadily through the year and i like his tools upside on top of that. Pinango decent. Brown not good so far but he's earned some rope.


Old:

* OF Schreck (23): 91pa, 13.2%, 24.2k%, .308bip, .247avg, .234iso, 138wrc+
* 1B Nunez (23): 345pa, 10.1b%, 18.6k%, .301bip, .264avg, .143iso, 111wrc+

Schreck playing like a legit prospect in AA despite being a bit old for the level.

Nunez not playing at that level but just good enough to keep an eye on.



A+

Young:

* OF Arias (20): 40pa, 15.0b%, 12.5k%, .379bip, .324avg, .029iso, 130wrc+
* IF Coffey (20): 336pa, 11.6b%, 24.1k%, .258bip, .223avg, .196iso, 110wrc+

Nice start for Arias tho he needs to show some power. Coffey hasn't been good since the trade but his overall numbers still very good for his age.


Of age:

* IF Pinto (21): 43pa, 4.7b%, 9.3k%, .382bip, .375avg, .350iso, 212wrc+
* IF Harry (21): 385pa, 8.6b%, 20.5k%, .251bip, .217avg, .146iso, 94wrc+

Pinto still on fire. Harry steadily improving into possible actual prospect statues.


Old:

* C Sharp (22): 50pa, 8.0b%, 8.0k%, .211bip, .244avg, .244iso, 124wrc+
* OF Bohrofen (22): 414pa, 12.8b%, 24.4k%, .305bip, .237avg, .150iso, 113wrc+
* 1B Orf (22): 160pa, 14.4b%, 23.8k%, .277bip, .224avg, .194iso, 112wrc+

Good start from Sharp. Bohrofen steadily recovering from his poor start but still not at a good enough level for his age. Orf in a similar boat.





A

Very young:

* IF Nimmala (18): 290pa, 8.6b%, 33.1k%, .282bip, .216avg, .251iso, 115wrc+

Still hoping for a late surge to really make his numbers shine but even without that he looks very good.


Young:

* OF Joseph (19): 273pa, 7.3b%, 24.5k%, .281bip, .222avg, .134iso, 92wrc+

decent line for his age still.


Of age:

* OF Mitchell (20): 39pa, 15.4b%, 25.6k%, .286bip, .267avg, .233iso, 134wrc+
* C Duran (20): 282pa, 13.1b%, 14.9k%, .294bip, .246avg, .076iso, 104wrc+
* IF Beltre (20): 399pa, 9.5b%, 18.5k%, .281bip, .231avg, .081iso, 91wrc+
* IF Toman (20): 286pa, 8.0b%, 31.5k%, .331bip, .228avg, .110iso, 88wrc+

Mitchell cooling off a bit but obviously a very good line still. Duran looking like a legit prospect. Beltre and Toman not so much.


Old:

* C Parker (21): 54pa, 16.7b%, 18.5k%, .281bip, .267avg, .267iso, 161wrc+
* OF Salinas (21): 21pa, 9.5b%, 9.5k%, .412bip, .362avg, .053iso, 149wrc+
* IF Freethy (21): 30pa, 23.3b%, 13.3k%, .313bip, .250avg, .000iso, 144wrc+
* C Tibbitts (21): 45pa, 8.9b%, 11.1k%, .314bip, .275avg, .050iso, 104wrc+
* 3B Keys (21): 36pa, 11.1b%, 30.6k%, .300bip, .226avg, .161iso, 98wrc+

Mostly good starts in these tiny samples.


Too old:

* OF Micheletti (22): 36pa, 13.9b%, 16.7k%, .409bip, .333avg, .148iso, 176wrc+
* OF Cunningham (23): 54pa, 11.1b%, 25.9k%, .286bip, .225avg, .150iso, 119wrc+

too old to care about but still want to see what they do.

haven't tracked pitching prospects much this year because a) we don't have many b) the good ones are all injured and c) the pitching stats i like to use require a bunch of work.

but the pitching picture looks slightly better since the draft and trade deadline and midseason promotions so i took a look:


AAA

Very young:

* LH Tiedemann (21): 4gms, 2.3ip/gm, 22.4k%, 24.5b%, .250bip, 6.00era, 10.40fip, 7.69xfip

Obviously still a stud. we hope for health.


Young:

* LH Fluharty (22): 46gms, 1.2ip/gm, 25.5k%, 9.8b%, .308bip, 4.04era, 4.17fip, 4.81xfip

Solid season for a guy his age. Nothing spectacular but looks like he'll earn a chance to be an mlb RP sooner or later.


Of Age

* RH Bloss (23): 3gms, 3.6ip/gm, 20.5k%, 5.1b%, .172bip, 0.00era, 2.70fip, 4.60xfip
* RH Juenger (23): 44gms, 1.3ip/gm, 20.7k%, 7.3b%, .325bip, 4.08era, 4.12fip, 4.58xfip
* RH Fisher (23): 14gms, 1.3ip/gm, 25.8k%, 21.3b%, .319bip, 4.82era, 4.34fip, 6.12xfip
* RH Pardinho (23): 15gms, 1.2ip/gm, 16.3k%, 19.8b%, .296bip, 8.50era, 6.90fip, 6.25xfip

Obviously Bloss looks quite good. And his AA numbers back it up. Looks well on his way to being an MLB SP.

Nothing great from the 3 RP here but enough to keep an eye on.



AA

Young:

* RH Santos (21): 10gms, 1.7ip/gm, 28.9k%, 16.9b%, .250bip, 5.60era, 5.07fip, 5.13xfip

Not great but not awful for his age.

Of Age:

none

Old:

RH Bloss (23): 8gms, 5.6ip/gm, 21.2k%, 7.9b%, .148bip, 1.61era, 3.31fip, 3.95xfip
LH Macko (23): 15gms, 5.2ip/gm, 26.7k%, 8.7b%, .292bip, 4.42era, 3.82fip, 3.98xfip
RH Harrison (23): 22gms, 5.0ip/gm, 19.2k%, 9.5b%, .284bip, 5.04era, 5.02fip, 4.95xfip

RH Pardinho (23): 21gms, 1.3ip/gm, 34.9k%, 9.4b%, .224bip, 1.01era, 2.27fip, 2.70xfip
RH Fisher (23): 21gms, 1.1ip/gm, 37.7k%, 11.3b%, .379bip, 3.04era, 2.50fip, 2.93xfip

Well earned promotion for Bloss. Solid year for Macko but nothing great. Harrison not getting destroyed at least.

Well earned promotions for the 2 RP.



A+

Young:

none.


Of age:

* LH Rojas (21): 8gms, 4.9ip/gm, 27.4%, 5.7b%, .317bip, 2.06era, 2.79fip, 3.16xfip
* LH Peterson (21): 12gms, 1.0ip/gm, 38.5k%, 15.4b%, .250bip, 2.38era, 3.13fip, 3.88xfip

Rojas having one of the best seasons of the pitching prospects this year. Petersen doing well enough in relief.


Old:

* RH Watts-Brown (22): 6gms, 5.0ip/gm, 27.5k%, 15.9b%, .306bip, 5.70era, 5.08fip, 4.54xfip
* RH Pierce (22): 18gms, 2.6ip/gm, 26.6k%, 8.9b%, .283bip, 2.72era, 3.07fip, 3.41xfip

Probably shouldn't even list these guys tbh.



A

Young:

* RH Maroudis (19): 3gms, 3.6ip/gm, 31.6k%, 10.5b%, .136bip, 0.84era, 2.42fip, 2.94xfip
* LH Torres (19): 6gms, 2.5ip/gm, 33.3k%, 13.3b%, .167bip, 3.00era, 2.88fip, 3.84xfip
* RH Batista (19): 1gms, 2.0ip/gm, 54.5k%, 18.2b%, 1.000bip, 4.50era, 0.54fip, 0.54xfip

tiny samples all but promising numbers from the youngsters.


Of Age:

* RH Perez (20): 17gms, 4.8ip/gm, 25.8k%, 7.2b%, .269bip, 4.06era, 3.46fip, 3.54xfip
* RH Guerra (20): 3gms, 4.8ip/gm, 26.3k%, 8.8b%, .222bip, 5.65era, 3.40fip, 3.89xfip
* RH Perry (20): 14gms, 3.3ip/gm, 27.5k%, 18.8b%, .306bip, 2.93era, 4.24fip, 4.47xfip
* RH Alcalde (20): 30gms, 1.8ip/gm, 21.6k%, 11.5b%, .239bip, 3.08era, 3.79fip, 4.58xfip
* RH Urena (20): 5gms, 1.6ip/gm, 30.6k%, 22.2b%, .294bip, 2.25era, 3.79fip, 4.63xfip

All these guys pitching well enough to be interesting tbh.

This level seems to have a solid set of pitching prospects to be honest. Promising.

Guy who needs to be added: Palmegiani, Paulino, Pinango, Orelvis Martinez, Dasan Brown, Nunez, Clarke, Tirotta, Lantigua, Robertson, De Jesus and Gabriel Martinez.

Orelvis is already a 40-man player.

Of those names, I doubt any get protected. Palmegiani had a shot before having a terrible 2024 and players like him rarely get chosen. Paulino, Pinango, Nunez, Lantigua, DeJesus and Martinez are all minor league free agents but not worth the roster spots.

Names I would consider: Victor Arias and Adrian Pinto (but I would send to the Arizona Fall League to see if they're ready for AA). I would also send Dahain Santos and Eric Pardinha to the AFL to decide based on their performances... Also possibly add Dallas and Wallace, although the former is hurt and the latter is defi itely a long-term reliever. I also find value in Lazaro Estrada and he has some elite pitch characteristics so other teams will be interested in this pending minor league free agent.

I'd be annoyed if Paulino was lost. That's a middle infielder who's been comfortably above average offensively at every level while being young for each level. That's a real prospect there imo.

Of the others you mentioned i find Dejesus Pinango Brown Nunez interesting but i wouldn't cry if we lost them either.

Nolan Perry has been moved to the 60 day IL. Another surgery perhaps?

The Sox dealt him because they weren't going to protect him anyway and he's a free agent. He had a utility player projection but isn't an overly great fielder and most teams don't covet bat-first utility players.

I just think he stands out statistically as a guy who's being underrated by the general consensus.

He hits as well as many prospects with starter projections, so i'd hold on to him.

Especially since with our system we shouldn't be tossing even good utlity players anyways.

He's spent his career a bit young for each level, and put up this career line:

* 1578pa, 11.2b%, 20.4k%, .332bip, .270avg, .169iso, 121wrc+

and he's carried that all the way up to AA already.

I know he doesn't get great reviews for his defense but as a guy who started as an SS you'd hope he can hack it somewhere eventually.

Thanks Gerry about the Nolan Perry news.

I am not aware about the details of many pitcher injuries. I know that some like Barriera had surgery and were lost for the season. C Dallas and Macko are 2 I am wondering about. Dallas was getting close to mastering (not dominating) Buffalo in June. Macko was sort of dominating AA.

Just checked the DSL. We played yesterday and will play today.

I don't see any position players that could be promoted to the FCL for next year. All the players I like are 1st year players that are doing quite well for their age. A Gaxiola is in his 2nd year. He had a V good start to the season. Was put on the restricted list and upon returning was not good.

I do like a few pitchers on our DSL team. I expect them in the FCL next year.

Our FCL team was bad this year with very little position player progress resulting in a lot of releases. The pitching though was sort of good and pitchers have been promoted to the FSL like Louis Torres, Daniel Guerra & Eminen Flores.

McAdoo with a huge game. Really like his game.

In addition to Nolan Perry, Carson Pierce has also been placed on the 60 day IL.

The DSL team with a whopping 16 walks today.

The way he's going, McAdoo might be the third baseman on the major league club by late May.  He's a complete offensive player with a nice swing, who has hit very well at every level and moved up very quickly. 

"I don't see any position players that could be promoted to the FCL for next year. All the players I like are 1st year players that are doing quite well for their age. A Gaxiola is in his 2nd year. He had a V good start to the season. Was put on the restricted list and upon returning was not good."

The Jays have historically promoted both 17 and 18 year olds from the DSL who have done well in their first year.

Most likely to be promoted: Randy Soto, Aldo Gaxiola (2nd year), Juarlin Soto, Yorman Licourt (Older, Cuban), Andres Arias

Maybe promoted: Rafael Flores, Pascual Archila, Franklin Rojas, David Beckles

There just isn't much in the FCL blocking them. Gavin Smith is the only incoming prep draftee.