Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Toronto at Los Angeles*, August 12-14

Well, that's a filthy lie. The Blue Jays are not playing in the City of Angels tonight. They're not even playing in Los Angeles County.

I know, I did a whole rant on this subject the last time the Jays were in Anaheim, but the Angels still haven't rectified the situation. And they really should. Not only does "Anaheim Angels" have a pleasing alliteration - when the Angels briefly acknowledged reality and played under their obvious true name, they went and won the only championship of their sixty-year history.

I assume the Blue Jays will touch down at LA International, which is indeed in Los Angeles (whew!). But from there, they'll have to get on a bus and ride the freeway for an hour (if they're lucky) to get to Anaheim in Orange County. It's almost like getting on the QEW and driving to Hamilton (now that I've actually become a licensed motorist in my old age, I know these things!) So yeah - Los Angeles Angels my ass.

Well. You may have noticed that Anthony Rendon is back in the lineup (and hitting - he's gone 7-16 since his return.) You will recall that Rendon left Washington after their 2019 title to sign with the Angels, and in the five seasons since his departure no less than 20 different players have taken the field at third base for the Nationals. Which seems like a lot, and maybe it is, but there is also the grim fact that 28 different players have played third base for the Angels since Rendon's arrival.

I have long had a completely unscientific conviction that third base was a position that somehow managed to break players - not as much as catcher, obviously, but every bit as much as playing second base. I don't know why that would be. I can't help but think I'm being silly, that I'm over-reacting to Eric Chavez's Hall of Fame career getting side-tracked. But Chavez was hardly the only third baseman who didn't wear well (hey, Kelly Gruber!). Rendon was one hell of a player in Washington, and if he's ever able to get back on the field again, there may still be something of that guy left.

So there were a couple of comments, both made in passing, on the last game thread that Got My Hackles Up. With a heroic effort, I restrained myself in the moment. But no longer!

First I read this...

Games don't even mean anything...

And then...

win or lose it doesn't really matter too much

Well, maybe not to you or me. And we're free not to watch. But they still mean something to the guys who are playing those games. And right now a very large part of the manager's job is making sure that they mean something. He has a bunch of youngsters who are trying to find their way in the majors. He needs to make sure that they are doing it properly, that they are doing what the team needs them to do, in order to win that day's game. Which means that the manager has to manage as if the games mean something. If he doesn't think they matter, and it's obvious that he doesn't think they matter, why in hell should anyone else be bothered?

Well I'm an old person. I remember vividly what happens when a team actually gives up after the deadline and doesn't care much about winning or losing. It can get pretty ugly. If 1995 was too long ago for you, there's always 2014.

Matchups!

Mon 12 Aug - Francis (4-3, 5.44) vs Daniel (1-3, 6.04)
Tue 13 Aug - Gausman (10-8, 4.42) vs Fulmer (0-2, 3.74)
Wed 14 Aug - Berrios (10-9, 3.97) vs Anderson (9-10, 2.99)

Posted by Magpie on Monday, August 12 2024 @ 06:30 PM EDT.

Toronto at Los Angeles*, August 12-14 | 94 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Ducey - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#451312) #

But it doesnt matter if they win.

It matters that they try to win.

If they play a good game and then Ryan Burr blows up and gives up 5, then they improve draft position. Thats good. Burr is not part of the solution going forward. He's like one of those red shirt security guys on the original Star Trek.

Glevin - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#451315) #

Again, against a righty, Clement not only playing but batting lead off. Give Barger some run at 3B! I'm just baffled by a team out of it insisting on playing a utility infielder every day. Loperfido like Schneider should be in AAA. They both have things they need to work on. Loperfido quite different than Barger as he is a much better defender and can play CF (and I think even 2B?). He is a bit like Derek Fisher where he is a high upside guy who is also unlikely to get to that outcome. Interested to watch Wagner. Seems a lot like Horwitz as a player.

Marc Hulet - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#451317) #

Admittedly it's only one swing but Wagner's swing looks an awful lot like Alan Roden's - which the Jays tried to change to generate more power.

Nigel - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#451318) #

Yeah, Wagner�s swing is definitely not a sexy �do damage� swing like Loperfido�s.

Francis continues to look to me like a very viable backend starter to me.

Eephus - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#451319) #

While we�re here, with old friend Pillar in CF for the Angels and Varsho on the Blue Jays�.

Who do you like better? Peak Blue Jays Pillar or current Varsho? (Naturally, Jo Adell is the one making very fine defensive plays as I ask this question).

Eephus - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#451320) #

I mean defensively of course. Hitting-wise�. Well that�s a similar but also different discussion.

Ducey - Monday, August 12 2024 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#451321) #

Not sure why John couldn't leave Francis in a little longer

pooks137 - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#451322) #

Who do you like better? Peak Blue Jays Pillar or current Varsho?

I don't remember Pillar being as frustrating as Varsho is offensively.

There was always the eternal hope of "April Pillar" that he'd finally learned some plate discipline. But he'd be back to swinging at sliders 3 feet outside again by May.

But the hope surrounding Pillar didn't have such wide error bars. Fans simply hoped he start taking enough walks to get his OBP above .320.

With Varsho, because he has such wide gaps in his contact game & because of the acquisition cost of Moreno, Varsho will always be seen as a "What if?" disappointment unless he miraculously becomes a 110-120 wRC+ player while maintaining his otherworldly defense.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#451323) #

I'm liking the 2025 rotation - Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Yariel Rodriguez, Manoah with #6 being Francis, Jake Bloss (could be #5 by the start of 2025), Tiedemann (if healthy for once), Trenton Wallace, and probably others. I expect the Jays to sign a few others as AAAA guys too as they always do.

Now we'd need someone to be an ace again (Gausman and Manoah have both been Cy finalists recently, Berrios & Bassitt can be damn solid too). Wouldn't be shocked if Kikuchi is resigned, but only at a bargain rate.

The 2B situation is looking cool. Horwitz, Schneider both can be solid. New kid Wagner looked really good today (fingers crossed he can keep it up, a bit worried he is too aggressive), Orelvis Martinez will be back too, hopefully doing well without fertility meds.

Jimenez I've liked at SS so far, so if Bo is traded it shouldn't be a total disaster.

3B is a mess still, with Clement playing all the time it seems, Barger showed some hope but seems to be on the managers wrong side. Orelvis Martinez has a fair amount of 3B time so he is an option there. Might see the Jays do a trade or FA signing to cover this.

C: Kirk is solid (great D, some offense - potential for great O), but need a good backup. Jansen? I'm sure others are out there too.

1B: Vlad duh. With Horwitz getting a lot of time there too.

DH: will be a rotation of Vlad, Springer, and others I suspect

CF: Varsho, RF: Springer.

LF is all that is still an issue then - with Schneider, Jonatan Clase, Alan Roden, Horwitz can play here, plus incumbent Joey Loperfido (not impressing yet, but highly thought of it seems - reminds me of guys like Derek Fisher & Billy McKinney - also highly thought of at one time, lets hope he doesn't keep me thinking of them).

I'm thinking the big issue will be sorting all of this out at 2B/LF/3B to figure out who is best to use. Losers will be backups or in AAA.

Michael - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#451324) #

Obviously the OF gap is filled by signing Soto in the offseason. No problem. :)

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 03:55 AM EDT (#451325) #

3B will be interesting. There just isn't that much available for the Jays. They can go for Bregman. Chapman will test the market again, but I think we've moved on. Ke'Bryan Hayes is getting to that point in his Pirates tenure that they'll try to move him, but his value has been almost exclusively defense. Ryan McMahon would be available if Colorado was run by normal people.

At least with Bregman you have someone who likely won't hurt you on either side of the ball. But there will be no shortage of suitors for him.

Of course, there's always Vladdy at 3B...

Glevin - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#451326) #

I mean Varsho is a much better player than Pillar. Varsho has already aught Pillar in career WAR at 27. He is a better hitter and a better fielder. Put it this way. Pillar was a 4th OFer, Varsho is a starting CFer.

For 3B next season, I don't know. I am hoping Jays can get creative with trades. Would love to try to get someone like Lars Nootbar who has fallen out of favour in St Louis but I think is a 3 WAR player given regular ABs. I don't think Jays go for Bregman or Chapman and there isn't really anything at 3B to trade for. (I'm sure reds would trade Candeleirio for not much if Jays think he could bounce back) This is why I'd love to see Barger and Wagner at 3B the rest of the year (Wagner played 9 games at 3B this year in minors, 20 last year). Clement is not going to be a starting 3Bbman of any quality. Maybe between Orelvis, Barger, and Wagner and Clement they can hobble together something decent.

I don't think individual positions matter so much though. Like, if the Jays got Soto and went cheap at 3B, they'd be fine. Your offense has to be good and if there's nothing decent at 3B, it doesn't make sense to force it . The Jays have a ton of holes to fill. They need a front-line starter, a middle of the lineup hitter, and a couple of backend bullpen guys.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#451327) #

Signing Soto and going cheap elsewhere would be great but it�s so unlikely to happen that it�s probably not worth even dreaming about. I think Bregman might be their target if they want to make a splash but I hope not. Age is not on his side and he�s already seen some decline this season. Their best bet might be to try to trade for players who have breakout potential but for whatever reason are not meeting expectations. Players like Jesus Sanchez, Jo Adell, Jordan Walker, Brett Baty, etc (assuming availability). Of course then you�d have to trust the Jays current development staff to develop them, which is asking a lot.

Fixing everything with free agency is simply not realistic unless they want to blow past the 2nd tier of the CBT, so I think we will see a trade or two this winter.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#451328) #

The starters available to the Blue Jays at the start of 2025 are, at this point, all mid-rotation options. One might return to former glory, or a young one might emerge, but that's what they have. Here are the ERAs and xERAs for 2023-24:

Pitcher	ERA	xERA
Yariel	3.53	3.84
Bowden	3.68	4.09
Kevin	3.69	4.36
Jose	3.79	4.77
Chris	3.88	4.14

The other possibilities for later in 2025- Bloss, Tiedemann, Manoah and possibly Yeasayer, Wallace, Macko and others are at this point pretty remote. I hope that the club uses the major league pen as a stepping stone for one or two.

Glevin - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#451329) #

Gausman is the only one I see potentially going back to being a front-line starter because he was one as recently as last year but he will need to make changes. This is another reason, I find the go for it in 2025 narrative silly. Who are the Jays starting in playoff games? Gausman, Berrios, and Bassit? That's extremely weak. To compete next year, Jays need a front-line starter (Burns/Snell type) a middle of the order hitter, a couple of good relievers, and more. If the Rogers wants to pay for Burns and Soto, I'll be overjoyed but it seems far more likely that we'll get like Pivetta and Santander or something that will move the team into the hunt for 3rd wild card in order to keep fans coming but not really ever have a chance of actually winning.

Nigel - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#451330) #

I agree with both Mike and Glevin's comments. There are problems in every part of the roster and as such I think the FO is only going to shoot at the lower bar that Glevin suggests. I don't see the point in that but I know that other's do and I can understand that perspective. Where that approach will lose me is if they do things which materially impair the ability to actually compete in 2026 and beyond (bad contracts; trades of what few prospects the team has) in pursuit of the Hail Mary chance of competing in 2025. If they want to spend Rogers' money on pricy short term free agent contracts to compete in 2025 - go for it.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#451331) #

Well in 1993 they did damn fine with Pat Hentgen (112 ERA+), Guzman (109), Stewart (98), Stottlemyre (90). Their #5 was a very washed up Morris (70), while Al Leiter was the #6/long man (106) with 4 starts by other guys. Of course, that team had a killer pen in Ward, Cox (140 ERA+), Eichhorn (160), Castillo (LH 129), and Timlin (93 ERA+ but was a kid who'd have a fine career) among others.

The trick is to have a solid team everywhere plus some stars wherever you can. Would be fun if they could build a killer lineup or a killer pen (mostly luck in the pen it seems - if healthy Romano-Swanson-Green-Cabrera plus a couple more could be damn fine). Then comes the lineup, where if Bo has a strong contract year, Vlad keeps this up, Springer has a dead cat bounce, Varsho finally hits like we all hoped, etc. OK, yeah, I'm going for best case stuff here but nothing that can't happen. Heck, the rotation has 2 guys who were top 3 in Cy voting in the past 3 years (if Manoah is healthy).

hypobole - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#451333) #

"I'm curious about why Yesavage isn't pitching. This seems to be what the Jays do...ostensibly to limit innings and protect arms."

This was asked in the Oakland thread, with no response, so I'll do it. 29 pitchers were taken in the first 2 rounds this year. How many combined innings have they pitched in the minors? If you guessed zero, you would be correct. So it's not a Jays thing, it's an MLB thing.

As to why, my guess is because these are the best HS/college pitchers, they were worked hard.

Ducey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#451334) #

The current team is the 5th worst in run differential, 7th worst in runs scored, and 4th worst in runs against.

Fixing the bullpen, improving the offense, etc is not going to happen by bringing the same core back again. Bassitt, Springer and Gausman will be another year older, Vlad and Bo will have one foot out the door, and the kids will be just trying to get their footing.

Even if they add a slugger to LF, sign a Kikuchi level starter, and airlift in 4 bullpen guys, its going to be more of the same. And that is assuming Vlad will continue to go supernova, which history tells us is unlikely.

Glevin - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#451335) #

Yeah, nobody has their recently drafted pitchers pitch until the next season. Jays are getting grief for having their pitching prospects getting hurt but that's just the nature of pitching prospects. Look at Dodgers who develop players as well as anyone in baseball. Sheehan, Frasso, Hurt, and Ryan all getting TJ surgery this year. Pitchers just get hurt all the time now. You need to develop some pitchers and Jays aren't doing that and they should get grief for that.

Nigel - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#451336) #

There was an extremely interesting interview with Eno Sarris on the radio as I was driving to work today. I came into the interview part way when he was discussing 2025 pitching for the Jays and Rodriguez, Francis and Bloss in particular. FWIW Sarris seemed to like Francis the best of the three because of the the shape of his FB vs the splitter. It was also a healthy reminder of the nuances of statistical evaluation - he slipped in that the "industry" understands that Seattle RHP's numbers are all significantly inflated by their home ballpark where "there is a problem with the batter's eye for hitting against RHP".

bpoz - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#451337) #

If I remember correctly the last rebuild started after the 2018 trade deadline. Jansen, McGuire, Tellez, Gurriel and Teo were called up and given regular playing time. In 2019 it was Vlad, Bo and Biggio. So a young team which had good talent and only Galvis was added as a FA. For pitching they traded Sanchez and Stroman but hung on to K Giles.

I was an optimist in those days which is making a difference to my opinion on the current rebuild. This rebuild could be a lot easier because we have an established Kirk and Vlad if he signs long term.

I expect our 2025 team with no additions to be much better than our 2019 team. The 2026 team IMO will not be as good as our 2021 team which almost all Bauxites seem to like a lot.

Is there going to be a Teo, Gurriel prospects develop? Ryu, Ray, Matz, Manoah carried the rotation in 2021. Only Ryu was really established. So lucky. I don't know if the 2025 rotation will match the 2021 rotation. I have not analyzed the pen for 2021 and the potential 2025 pen.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#451338) #

Pre-2018 the Jays had 4 top 100 BA guys - Vlad, Bo, Pearson, and Anthony Alford - 2 wins and 2 flops.

Post 2018 Alford was removed, Jansen, Pardinho, Groshans, and Kevin Smith were added.

Funny how in 2024 Pearson is still a suspect who finally got dumped, Pardinho finally reached AAA (ERA over 9), Smith used as a PR for the Yankees twice, Alford 12 games in AA with Cincinnati plus 39 games in Mexico. Groshans was in AA/AAA for the Yankees, now AA for Oakland. Tells you how prospects can flop even when the team does well (Vlad & Bo obviously, Jansen was solid too now has a 208 OPS+ for Boston in 7 games).

After 2019 the farm was seen as weakening with Pearson, Groshans, and Simeon Woods Richardson the only top 100 guys, although Manoah made the BP list. Post 2020 you can add Austin Martin (79 OPS+ in LF/CF/2B), Alejandro Kirk, and Orelvis Martinez to the list. Post 2021 Gabriel Moreno was added (with Pearson & Orelvis still there). Post 2022 down to just Ricky Tiedemann on all lists, with Orelvis Martinez added back after 2023.

Also interesting is who never makes these lists - Spencer Horwitz (119 OPS+), Davis Schneider (now an 87), Leo Jimenez (85), Jordan Romano never made one, nor did Tim Mayza. Quality players can avoid top 100 lists quite easily. Now those 3 hitters after 2024 might never be more than backups and Mayza is now gone and Romano might be post 2025. However, each has had a better career than Pearson, Pardinho, Groshans, Alford, Smith combined even if their careers ended after 2024, plus to date they all have been better than super-studs Austin Martin & Tiedemann.

soupman - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#451339) #

Skenes pitched to the college championship and still threw innings in pro ball last year. They've pulled him from no hitters a couple times - but not because of pitch counts, from fatigue and the desire to limit higher stress pitches that result. This, to me, seems like an entirely more sensible way to train based on the basics of progressive overload...the most fundamental concept in body building.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#451340) #

Next year roster contenders

* CF Varsho 28 ----- Berroa 26 ---- Brown 23
* RF Springer 35 --- Lukes 30 ----- Schreck 24
* LF Loperfido 26 -- Clase 23 ----- Pinango 23
* 3B Clement 29 ---- Barger 25 ---- McAdoo 23
* SS Bichette 27 --- Jimenez 24 --- Kasevich 24
* 2B Wagner 26 ----- Martinez 23 -- Paulino 22
* 1B Guerrero 26 --- Tirotta 26 --- Nunez 24
* DH Horwitz 27 ---- Schneider 26 - Roden 25
* C Kirk 26 -------- Serven 30 ---- Clarke 27

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#451341) #

I was thinking Willy Adames would be a good FA target this off-season. But maybe this would just create a SS logjam without addressing the need for a quality third baseman.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#451342) #

Just thinking too much (as always). Where are the Jays in regards to quality at each position? Using fWAR

C: 16th with 1.9, #6 for defense, #24 for offense.
1B: #4 with 3.1, #27 for defense (so much for Mattingly helping Vlad on defense), #2 on offense
2B: #4 (!) with 2.7, #12 on defense, #4 on offense - IKF was 0.9 fWAR there, Horwitz 0.8, Schneider 0.5. All in the 30's for games at 2B.
3B: #18 (better than I though) with 1.8. #16 on defense, #14 on offense. Clement leads at 0.7, IKF 0.6 (36 G), Vlad 0.3 in 6 games (7.5 per 150 G even with his ugly D).
SS: #24 with 1.0. #13 on defense, #27 on offense - IKF 0.4 in 13 games, Clement 0.3 in 10 games, Bo 0.1 in 80, Jimenez 0.1 in 24. Jimenez getting a big negative on his defense (uh oh).
LF: #11 with 1.3, #1 on defense (duh), #24 on offense. With Varsho moving to CF now this becomes an area of need. Schneider at 0.2 in 65 games there.
CF: #19 at 1.3, #1 on defense (duh), #28 on offense. With KK gone this should improve (his bat was ugly with a 53 wRC+ here in CF) but if Varsho goes down...yikes.
RF: #17 at 1.0, #10 on defense, #21 on offense. Springer has had a very bad year on defense (negative - both Biggio & Barger are positive there).
DH: #17 at 0.3, #15 on defense (no idea how they measure defense for a DH), #17 for offense. In 3 games as a DH Horwitz has provided more offensive value than Turner did all year.
SP: #19 at 7.6, #10 for fastball velocity, #25 for ground ball % (with Varsho & Kiermaier out there most of the year why would you worry about fly balls?)
RP: #30 at -1.7. #16 for fastball velocity (that wasn't it), #30 for HR/fly ball - hmmmm... we might have an issue here. 24th in GB%, #23 in left on base (ugh), #30 in HR/9 (kind of expected that - 1.54 vs #29's 1.23 is a massive gap - as big as #29 vs #7 for HR/9)

So a few things we can see right away - 2B and 1B are not issues in the slightest. Everything else is mediocre (#11-19) outside of SS/Relief. So 2 obvious problems to solve for 2025 (find relievers who can keep a ball in the park). If Bo is healthy and normal then SS should jump from bottom 10 to top 10 easily.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#451344) #

It's hard to know what to expect from Bo in 2025. He could be a healthy 5-6 WAR player, an injury-plagued 0-1 WAR player (as he was this year), or anywhere in between.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#451345) #

So true greenfrog - in many respects a trade of Bo would be good just to clear the air and make it clear what needs to happen.

The rest of the team is in 1997-2012 limbo namely everyone is meh. not horrible, not great, just decent with a star at 1B. Those are the hardest teams to fix as you don't want to get worse and go to 'ugh' but you need to change things to get to great. The hallmark of a Gord Ash type 500 club. What uber prospects do we have? According to MLB.com we don't. FanGraphs had Orelvis as a 50, Tiedemann as a 55 before both had messed up years. Bloss was at 50 so also a top 100 guy (no idea why MLB.com doesn't see him that way after a great 2024 so far). Loperfido rated a 45, thus a very good prospect but damned if I can see it. Wagner a 35+ but looks better after 1 game (super small sample size). Varsho could easily be a top 5 CF if his bat could just get over 100 for wRC+ already. Kirk should be a LOT better than he has shown in 2023/24 as hit bat got him here but his glove is now elite instead (see Jansen for the same progression). With very little squinting we could have top 10's at 1B/2B (4th in ML right now)/CF/C/SS in 2025. Need kids to take over 3B/LF/DH and hope Springer can have a decent dead cat bounce in 2025 (I have little hope for him to be more than a 100 OPS+ guy now outside of hot streaks). Perfect world the Jays sign a big free agent to take over LF or 3B thus pushing kids to other positions. Make Springer a near full-time DH and put Barger/Loperfido/Clase/etc. in a battle for RF.

So many possibilities - that I enjoy, but I'd much rather have a strong team than one I can dream of 1001 possibilities with. Sigh.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#451346) #

If you ever needed proof that the front office is constantly in John Schneider's ear... he just used the word "cadence" in an interview. That's not a baseball term... That's a corporate buzz word.

Maybe an unpopular opinion but I'd consider moving Gausman to the pen where the fastball/split might play better... and help him find more consistent velo on the heater.

Nigel - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#451347) #

It�s only been a game and a half but Wagner has already put enough on tape to demonstrate that he can really hit a FB on the inner half. Cue a steady diet of offspeed stuff coming up.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#451348) #

109 mph exit velocity on that double by Wagner. Good to see.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#451349) #

Horwitz back up to .275/.367/.429 after his HR and BB tonight. If that is a AAAA player and 2024 Vogelbach and Turner are big leaguers, I�ll take the quad-A guy going forward, thanks.

Nigel - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#451350) #

Yeah but Horwitz sucks. Wagner has put up an .833/.833/1.333. Now that�s a major leaguer�s line:)

Glevin - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#451351) #

Maybe the Jays call up a 2Bman every August and they go crazy for a month? Wagner sure looks good so far. Not impressed by Jimenez' defence so far and statistically he's been bad as well. Hope it's just a SSS because if his D is below average, he's a very different kind of prospect.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#451352) #

Horwitz/Wagner definitely seem the safest of the "old prospects". if they can show power or defense there's a lot to like there. if they can show both then hey now.

Ducey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#451353) #

Mlb.com has updated the Jay's top 30 prospects to include draftees. Yesavage #2

Ducey - Tuesday, August 13 2024 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#451354) #

The umpire clown show is on full display.

Bad calls all night and then mouthing off to Springer

John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 02:26 AM EDT (#451355) #

Guess a good question is who would you play?

Kiermaier vs Loperfido (CF vs LF) - wRC+ of 52 vs 64 (ugh in both cases but a tiny bit better - far worse on defense but not ugly)
Turner vs Horwitz (DH) - wRC+ of 110 vs 123
Horwitz vs Wagner (2B) - wRC+ of 123 vs 364 - yeah 0% chance of that continuing but lets enjoy it for now.
Kiner-Falefa vs Clement (3B) - 116 vs 92 (IKF at 85 so far in Pittsburgh, same as his career figure)
Bo vs Jim�nez (SS) - 68 vs 89 (who'd have thunk?)

Outside of 3B where a backup IF is getting his shot it is an improvement on offense everywhere so far. Barger should be at 3B more often (43 wRC+) IMO just to see what is possible there, or in RF.

As Glevin said - lets just call up another 2B prospect who isn't highly thought of (Wagner felt like a throw in for that Kikuchi trade) each year in August from now on. Wagner might be for real too - the only time he was sub 100 for wRC+ was in his first shot in AA with a 98. All other seasons/partial seasons/levels were 120+, 196 in Buffalo. Gotta like that. Right now the Jays need to just leave him in there and see if there is something there - how does he react when ML pitchers stop tossing fastballs at him? ZiPS has him projected at a 290 wOBA which is nearly 100 points lower than his 2nd lowest wOBA at any level any season in the minors, and 100 points lower than his AAA figure for Houston this year (392). If I was a pitcher throwing to him he'd see sweepers, curves, etc. for now until he showed he could hit those as he has shown a first pitch heater is pure stupidity to throw him.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#451357) #

Wagner's offensive projections were always much better than Loperfido's, and above mlb average.

Ducey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#451358) #

"lets just call up another 2B prospect who isn't highly thought of"

Joey Votto might get called up. Doubt he can play 2B anymore, or hit (he is at .182/317/318 in AAA).

dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#451359) #

I'm bullish on Loperfido. He's perfect guy to play everyday in front of Vlad rest of season and if he cant do anything he stays in AAA to start 2025.

soupman - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#451361) #

Pitchers just get hurt all the time now. my point in the previous thread about pitchers getting hurt is precisely this. there appears to be an epidemic of pitching injuries - at a time when teams are being more cautious than ever with pitch and innings limits. there is very little experimenting going on, it seems. the sample size any single team has to work with is small but the variation in approaches to mitigating arm injuries seems to be quite uniform and it is clearly NOT working. as I say in another comment, some pitchers throw stress free past 100 pitches. verlander is a guy that always had increasing velocity third, fourth time through an order. he was in his late 30s before his first TJ. Some guys like Doc tear their elbow, don't get surgery, and it's like nothing happened. maybe it's because I've been reading too much VC propaganda recently, but the "fail fast" mentality may be useful for teams. instead of worrying about innings limits and pitch limits which are intuitively appealing but demonstrably have little (if any) impact on healthy UCLs, maybe just put them to the test and see what happens. no one worried about innings jumps when Stieb converted to a pitcher and immediately started throwing over 200 innings a year. he was a slider guy to boot. I think my takeaway is that a lot of ink has been spilled about avoiding TJ through these intuitive innings limits. teams are treating healthy arms like they are arms recovering from an injury and I think that's a mistake. if you wanted to become the world's greatest power lifter, would you train just a little bit, or would you push what you were capable of as often as you could recover? we know from the past that the range of what different bodies will tolerate as work stress is a wide band. just figure that out because you're going to sooner or later. a body recovering from an acute injury and especially surgery deserve the precaution in returning to a full workload, but an athlete is going to be the best judge of how far they can push and what risk they can tolerate. this is the other issue I have with innings limits and pitch limits. they might give individual pitchers the notion that they are in a "safe zone" where as long as they just power through X number of pitches they can avoid injury. in other words, pitch limits may have the inverse effect of creating the idea that max effort throwing through pain is tolerable as long as it is limited. teams give individuals confidence to work through and past obvious physical discomfort rather than deferring to the athlete's knowledge of their body and desire to become generationally wealthy which should cause them to weigh risk-reward better than the team's uniform approach to health. there will still be MLB arms that need more precaution, but I find it odd that we're potentially forgoing the next verlander or Kershaw because of bad analysis passing for "data-driven analytics" or worse "science-based".

soupman - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#451362) #

I guess it is my fault for not previewing that to check that the formatting of paragraphs worked.

bpoz - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#451364) #

I would be happy if the Jays finished ahead of Texas and Detroit. Maybe even get slightly over 500.

I don't know how that affects their draft position. Don't know how it works. Should be about 10th worst of 30 teams. Picking 3rd would be incredible.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#451365) #

As 2024 is just to see what the Jays have, the big questions for 2025 right now appears to be LF, 3B, the pen, who starts at 2B, who starts at DH.

2B has 1001 options (Horwitz, Wagner, Schneider, Martinez, Jimenez, Clement, etc.) most of whom look decent at least. Thus why the Jays have the 4th most fWAR at 2B this year.
3B is harder - Clement & Barger are the internal candidates but I doubt many want the Jays to go with those 2 in 2025. Bregman is the class of 3B free agents this winter (entering age 31, 133 OPS+ lifetime, 116 this year after a poor start) with a deal being in the $100-$200 mil range, most likely 5/$150 I'm guessing. Ha-Seong Kim is also a free agent (95 OPS+ at SS, high end D) but just entering his age 29 season.
LF has meh internal choices in Schneider, Loperfido, Barger, Berroa, Roden, McAdoo, Clase. Clase, Loperfido, and Schneider are the favorites right now. Free agency has 'wow' in Soto ($400-500 mil), Bellinger could be out there again, Anthony Santander (be nice to steal him away from the O's), plus good ol' Teoscar Hernandez.
DH I expect to be a mishmash in 2025 - Horwitz/Vlad sharing it mostly with everyone else mixed in. I suspect Springer will get the bulk of time there depending how the kid OF'ers do and if the Jays sign a good OF free agent.
Relief: probably toss a lot of crap at the wall and see what sticks, with a plan to do a mid-season trade if needed. Expect an injured guy to be signed who might be back by June/July (there always are injured relievers out there recovering from TJ or whatever). Romano/Swanson/Green/Cabrera are the locks, leaving 4 open spots.
Rotation: outside of a Kikuchi reunion I'd be surprised if anyone is signed here. Gausman-Bassitt-Berrios is an expensive but quality top 3, Rodriguez has shown why he was signed, Manoah hopefully will be back at 100%, Francis showing hope he might be a decent #5/6 guy, Jake Bloss will have every chance to win a job, Yesavage might even sneak in. Tiedemann will probably spend 2025 on the IL (I see him as Pearson v2 now).
1B (Vlad), SS (Bo, Jimenez, Clement), CF (Varsho), RF (Springer), C (Kirk) are set - a backup C is needed (Jansen would be nice but many decent AAAA C are out there). If Bo is traded then SS becomes interesting with Jimenez handed it I suspect while Clement would back him up and the Jays would sign a couple decent guys who could cover it. Can't see them signing Willy Adames or Kim to cover SS if Bo is dealt though unless they really sour on Jimenez.

Backups will be guys who lose the competition for starting roles. Jimenez has to stay (out of options), Hagen Danner is also using up his last one this year, others with sub 5 years service time have at least 1 more left after 2024.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#451367) #

For the 2025 draft it appears stronger than this years (thank goodness) and the Jays have a legit shot at a top 5 pick. A draft lottery simulator I just encountered had them picking #2 on my first try, #9 on the 4th try, #1 on the 10th try. So yeah, lots of possibilities right now. A few have Ethan Holliday, SS HS as the #1 pick (brother of Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday so a guy the Jays would likely take if they could).

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#451368) #

I wouldn't worry about Danner. His injury history all but guarantees he'll be issued a fourth option by MLB if thr Jays apply for it.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#451372) #

I don't know how that affects their draft position.

I don't know. When I look at the major league accomplishments of Spencer Torkelson, Mickey Moniak, Brady Aiken, and Mark Appel I find I have trouble caring all that much about draft position.

soupman - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#451373) #

Before getting too excited about the Jays getting a high pick, here is Mark Shapiro's Top 15 Draft history in Cleveland: Year - Player - (Pick#) - Career bWAR - Passed Over (pick #)
2003: Michael Aubrey (11) - 0.2 - Aaron Hill (13)
2004: Jeremy Sowers (6) - 1.6 - Homer Bailey (7), Jered Weaver college arm (12)
2005: Trevor Crowe (14) - 0.2 - Ellsbury (23)
2007: Beau Mills (13) - N/A - Jason Heyward (14)
2009: Alex White (15) - -0.4 - AJ Pollock (17)
2010: Drew Pomeranz (5) - 12.4 - Chris Sale (13) several others slightly better
2011: Francisco Lindor (8) - 47.5 - this draft was hard to miss Baez next pick, Springer 3 later, Nimmo and the late Jose Fernandez all top 15. Lindor the best.
2012: Tyler Naquin (15) - 3.1 - Giolito (16) Corey Seager (18)
2013: Clint Frazier (5) - -0.1 - Meadows (9) and Renfroe (13) weak class

64.5 bWAR 74% of that value from Lindor.

In a FanGraphs analysis of the 2000-2010 drafts, the average bWAR for 11-15 slots was 8.7. Or about 78.3. So even ignoring the handful of higher picks including the one that hit big, Shapiro has not shown us much about being able to identify talent. The fan graphs post didn't have individual slot values, so instead of taking the 1-5 'bucket' I simply used the lowest (11-15) bucket to apply to even the higher picks.

It looks like the early years Shapiro may have been a dogmatic moneyball adherent, with picks like Aubrey over Hill suggesting that JPR had the upper hand in evaluation on that front, same in 2004 with the Sowers pick where they misjudged the next college arm (weaver) and the 2007 where Hayward was the raw high school pick. I'm not sure when they learned to stop doing that...probably when everyone else did. In Shapiro's time in Cleveland they took 1JC player in the first and 1 HS player in the supplemental first before they took Lindor in 2011.

I guess the positive spin would be that all but one of the top 15 picks did play in the bigs.

Anyway - I think 2025 the Jays will be good. Vlad is turning into a leader in front of my eyes. I didn't think I'd see it, and I never thought I'd say this but...I like this player. I'm not just a believer in the bat. He wasn't even on deck last night but he's the guy running out to calm George.

I also think, while I'm talking positive, that I like seeing Manoah around the team. I think he's a huge bounce back candidate. This isn't a Rendon take the money and run guy. I think he just loves baseball.

This kind of adversity is exactly what the Jays need. There is the breathing room to give at bats to fringe players and see some potential happy surprises that come when opportunity and ambition mix, and there is the emergence of a leader in your star player. I look forward to seeing the Jays surprise the pundits next year. I'm going to avoid pinning my hopes on a future that is not likely to arrive any time soon via the draft.

soupman - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#451374) #

Aiken 1-1 was found to have a genetically small UCL that led the Astros to reduce their offer to the minimum amount required to net them a compensation pick. Whether they were just looking for an excuse to screw him over and pick second the next year is up for debate, but Aiken became Bregman from the Astros POV.

I also think a lot of draft busts are signability picks like the Padres taking Matt F'n Bush over Weaver, who they supposedly preferred but wanted to stay in California (I mentioned him in another post about the Indians misses in the draft, maybe unfairly because I'd forgotten that fact).

I think in a vacuum, the Jays landing a top pick would help. A strong class probably makes more of a difference than anything other than 1-1 where despite the examples you gave...there's usually at least one can't miss (too badly) player around and the early 2000s period where teams just punt seem to be over. The guys that slit (Martin, Yesavage, etc) seem to slip for baseball+ rather than strictly financial reasons as was more common in the past.

soupman - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#451375) #

I guess the other thing is that, even if I say...they missed out just over 1 "win" in the standings per year. Obviously if you remove best/worst...it's a lot more bleak what they left on the table, but maybe some of these guys were stars in the making until something or another derailed them. Anyway - drafting high can be important, but it seems like whatever the Dodgers are doing would be a better model than hoping that a high pick hits BIG.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#451376) #

Agreed that ideally you build a strong scouting system so where you are in the standings won't make or break your minors. However, high picks (top 5) are far better than lower ones (11-15 even). Lets look 10+ years ago (need that much time to evaluate a draft)

2015: 1-5: 21-38-6-2-22 WAR; 11-15: 6-6-0-(-1)-11
2014: 1-5: 0-0-17-15-0; 11-15: 0-0-35-(-1)-2
2013: 1-5: 0-28-15-0-0; 11-15: 1-0-10-2-0
2012: 1-5: 44-24-9-23-0; 11-15: 11-0-0-0-3
2011: 1-5: 42-0-21-8-(-2); 37-1-23-14-0

So over 5 years 1-5 saw flops (0 or worse WAR) from 9 players, woohoo (20+) from 9 players. 11-15 saw 11 flops, 3 woohoo's. This is out of 25 players.

Remember also that the teams getting picks 1-5 tend to be very poor organizations (bad development, scouting, etc), thus why they are picking so high. 2013/2014 saw some really, really, really bad drafting/development to have 6 out of 10 top 5 picks flop totally (13: Astros, Twins, Cleveland; 14: Astros, Marlins, Twins) - boy the Astros and Twins were REALLY bad back then weren't they? The next year (15) the Astros drafted Alex Bregman 2nd overall (failed to sign 1st overall pick in '13) and finally got something from sucking (Kyle Tucker too). Twins had 6th pick and got 0 WAR from him too (geez, they sucked at drafting - from 2019-now they have 0.5 WAR total from round 1, 2012 was the last to get 6+ WAR from a first round pick for them in Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios was the year before). In the past 20 years (2004-now) the Twins have drafted 7 times in the top 10 and had 5 guys reach 10+ WAR from the first round. Yikes! Jays in that same period have 4 10+'ers (plus a 9.9 in Ricky Romero) and just 3 top 10 picks

Magpie - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#451377) #

It's also possible that I'm still traumatized by what Pat Gillick did with most of his first round picks.

So - by my count, Will Wagner is the 28th son of a major leaguer to play for the Blue Jays. (Bobby Mattick and Mel Queen Jr both wore the uniform, but didn't get to play.) I found this out the hard way. I'm not aware of an actual list of such Blue Jays, which would certainly have saved a good deal of time. Not that I had anything better to do....

Ducey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#451378) #

I dont see how Shapiro's draft history in CLE years ago is relevant. He is not going to be doing anything other than maybe sitting in a decision meeting.

The Jays' recent history would be relevant. He has been with TOR for 9 years.

The draft is a crap shoot, but generally, the higher you draft, the better chance you have of getting a better player. And you are drafting higher in every round, have more money to allocate, etc.

Glevin - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#451379) #

Drafting high, especially in the top 3-5 is a huge advantage. Sure, there are busts and players don't make it but overall quality difference is huge and often difference between like pick 3 and pick 10 is bigger than from pick 10 to 35.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#451380) #

I think someone did an analysis of the O's drafts under Elias and concluded that there was a lot more to it than high picks; the O's did a great job overall.

It's easy to use not having high picks as an excuse for poor drafting.

Glevin - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#451381) #

Sure, but the fact remains that high picks are way more valuable and the Orioles/Astros aren't where they are without being awful for years. Also, higher picks give you more bonus pool which allows you to be more flexible with later picks.

Nigel - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#451382) #

While the Astros definitely benefitted from some high draft picks what has actually driven a good chunk of their extended run of success is their work in the IFA market. While Altuve is the poser child for that success, they signed Valdez, Javier and Urquidy as cheap overage IFA's in one signing year - unbelievable.

soupman - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#451384) #

I don't see how the draft is in anyway crap shoot. for that to be the case probability would need to be stable - is that what you are saying?

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#451387) #

The Orioles are excellent at identifying talent inside and outside the first round... and Elias and some of his front office came... from Houston.

Houston is outstanding at finding unhealed IFAs (really, really good) and great at picks outside the first round (see Bloss, Loperfido, Wagner). And many others.

The Mariners are very good with IFAs.

On the flip side, the Yankees have been better than the Jays but are very much overrated.

scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#451388) #

Ultimately, there are only a handful of impact players drafted each year. Some teams are good at producing high ranked prospects but even those teams don't produce many actual impact players.

Around 2010, the draft rules changed drastically with hard slot signing bonuses. I don't think it's helpful to look at those old drafts as some teams could just buy prospects and many teams avoided the expensive ones.

The Jays seem to have an issue with signing top Dominicans. They do OK with other latin players. I don't think it's a scout issue. It's more like young kids play for trainers who are affiliated with other teams.

scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#451389) #

As the Jays finally get some decent left bats to balance the lineup, it would be nice to have a couple of right handed hitters who can hit lefties well.

I think Turner was the only one the whole team who could do that.

Gerry - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#451390) #

I think Addison Barger must have kicked John Schneider's dog. He didn't start in three games, was brought in as a sub last night against a lefty, and gets the start today against another tough lefty.

scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#451391) #

Cadence in French means beat, tempo, rhythm. I guess that's the buzzword. Increase the cadence, increase the production.

However, according to Webster, cadence in English can mean the pattern that is being repeated. Schneider was talking about what Wagner does between pitches. I don't know any baseball jargon that covers that. I think it's just correct English.

Maybe that comes from Atkins but I don't really see that as something the GM would care about.

scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#451392) #

I dunno. Third is the right spot for him. It's better than having Vlad at 3rd. Right field isn't open.

Wagner has looked bad against lefties, but need to keep playing against RHP so they can see what he does against spin.

Barger still has options and will probably start in AAA next year. Jimenez and Clement are looking like the UT players.

scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#451393) #

10 game losing streak for the Pirates. They were buyers. Rangers are still behind the Jays. They are the World Champions and aren't in a rebuild. Braves would be sliding out of the last wild card if the Mets weren't so mediocre. The Giants are surging but I can't see the NL West having all 3 wild cards. Not when they play one another in September.

The Angels are so bad, beating them isn't even fun.

Ducey - Wednesday, August 14 2024 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#451395) #

Clement sure is smooth on defense. Gets rid of the ball super quickly.

uglyone - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#451397) #

Vladdy moves into top 5 with a 167wrc+.

With #4 Ohtani 172 and #3 Witt 173 well within reach. The two yanks probably not tho.

167 would also be a career high, beating his 166 from 2021.

John Northey - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#451398) #

Hmm Tampa and Detroit now in reach, 9 back of KC for the last WC. It isn't likely, but it isn't impossible either. Shades of 1998 when the Jays wrote off the season in late July then got on fire but came up short. 7 back of Boston now. That'd be fun to move ahead of them.

dalimon5 - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#451400) #

Ugly, the takeaway for me is the question, who does Vlad become if given an elite bat with power to pair with him? Who are the available options via trade and free agency? I see four tiers of wrc+ and Power "protection options" for Vlad next season:

Tier A - Juan Soto

Tier B - Brent Rooker

Tier C - Anthony Santander/ Teoscar Hernandez

Tier D - Pete Alonso

If its me I sign Vlad long term, skip Soto, skip Rooker and try to sign both Santander and Teo with aggressive overpays on "shorter" term deals. Maybe 3 years for Teo and 6 for Santander. Trade Bo for the best "power-driven" bat yoh can find.

"Backfill" with AAAA for infield, sign a SP to slot into top 3. Resign yourself to dumpster diving for the bullpen and hope to add to it by next trade deadline.

Signings:
Santander, Hernandez, Bieber or Ray

Do not sign:
Flaherty, Burns, Chapman, Alonso, Snell, Soto, Walker, Bader etc

scottt - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#451402) #

"Best case" scenario, the Jays climb back to .500, get a pick around 15th and fail to draft a top 100 prospect. Playoffs odds have increase to .5%.

They are currently on a path to win 72, but other teams are much better at losing meaningless games.

scottt - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#451403) #

Springer is in right. I think that's a fact.
Vlad likes to hit 3rd. They can have a high OBP bat in front of him. They have some interesting bats to hit 5th and beyond. I like Varsho near the bottom.

The problem with Bichette is finding a good return. No competitor would play him at SS.
If he's in Toronto next year, I would have him and Springer compete for the lead off and 5th or 7th spot.

I don't see Teoscar as a left field or DH option. Would an overpay for Santander work? I see a long list of interested teams. Soto will cost a ton. The Mets are in the picture.

I don't think they will spend on a starter. The problem is the pen and the offense.

uglyone - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#451405) #

Tbh I would wager on Bo being right back to normal next year.

scottt - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#451406) #

Most likely, but it's harder to predict health. He's been having a lot of knee issues for a guy who doesn't run that well and never dives.

scottt - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#451407) #

There are some talks about Kikuchi doing so well in 3 Astros starts. I think it's great. There are no sour grapes in these trades. Pitching in front of a good offense should boost confidence.

Francis might be a decent 5th starter with the addition of a splitter. It works as a change for him.

Stripling is back to the pen. The Giant made him alter the change up that was so successful in Toronto and he never got it back.

bpoz - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#451408) #

For the draft lottery there are 18 non playoff teams and 2 of them I believe but am not sure are are not allowed to participate which probably means that they pick 17th & 18th. Did I make mistakes or is the above 100% accurate?

Currently it is decent speculation that we are better than 9 non playoff teams. We could be lucky and pick 4th or unlucky and pick 16th in the 1st round. Then we get the 10th pick in every round after.

uglyone - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#451409) #

* Jansen 26pa, .353bip, .462obp, .273iso, 202wrc+, 0.3war, 7.5war/650
* Kikuchi 3gs, 5.6ip/gs, 67era-, 71fip-, 63xfip-, 0.5war, 5.3war/32gs
* Pearson 5gms, 1.5ip/gm, 90era-, 136fip-, 94xfip-, 0.1war, 0.7war/65gm
* Turner 42pa, .292bip, .333obp, .111iso, 103wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war/32gs
* Falefa 49pa, .297bip, .286obp, .130iso, 80wrc+, 0.2war, 2.7war/650
* Kiermaier 24pa, .286bip, .273obp, .050iso, 53wrc+, -0.1war, -2.7war/650

nothing too surprising. Jansen and Kikuchi are very good players. The others are mostly fodder.

I still hope we try to re-sign both Jansen and Kikuchi. But i think it'll be tough. I think the red sox especially would want to keep Danny so he can beat the crap out of that wall the rest of his career.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#451410) #

Over the last two years, Kikuchi's wOBA and xwOBA are almost identical and almost exactly league average. WAR measures haven't accurately captured his value. He misses bats and doesn't walk many, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Very much like Bowden Francis. Well, actually, Bowden Francis has slightly better numbers overall, but Kikuchi has shown that he can pitch 165 innings in a season at an average level which Francis hasn't done yet.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#451411) #

I thought IKF was a solid baseball player, fielded well and hit better than I expected.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#451412) #

Yep, Island Boy. The numbers suggest that IKF did everything well and has been a 2-3 WAR player over half a season of PAs in 2024. He's had the best year of his career with the bat, but maybe a bit lucky with the home runs he's hit.

uglyone - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#451413) #

Definitely an excellent season for Falefa but the offense is most likely not going to keep up going forward and good on the FO on selling high even on their best signing of the offseason.

Nigel - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#451416) #

The FO definitely got the IKF signing right, he has had a very good season and I was definitely way off on that one. Having said that, I do think his offence will revert to career norms. If that is the case there really isn't much difference between IKF and the 2024 version of Clement. IKF is probably the better defender but Clement is probably slightly more valuable on the bases and with the bat. In context, trading IKF and moving off the salary for next year made all kinds of sense.

Magpie - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#451417) #

Vlad is turning into a leader in front of my eyes. I didn't think I'd see it, and I never thought I'd say this but...I like this player.

For the first time in his career, he's not the youngest guy in the room and I think he really likes the idea of being a kind of mentor and role model for the new boys - Jimenez, Berroa, Barger, De Los Santos when he was around. He wants to set a good example. And my goodness, he's swinging the bat well. He's a big guy with a big swing, and he swings really hard - a lot of things can go wrong or get out of sync - but right now it looks like he's hitting off a tee. It's just beautiful.

He still gets a little too ambitious on the bases, but at least once a week he steals an out with a play that, say, Spencer Horwitz can't make simply because Guerrero is five inches taller (and remarkably flexible for one with his body type.)

scottt - Thursday, August 15 2024 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#451419) #

The salary wasn't huge, which helped to make the trade happen plus the Jays were trying to get under the tax which made it worthwhile.

Also, they might not have to replace IKF, provided they can find a DH bat that doesn't play third.

Jonny German - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#451425) #

Over the last two years, Kikuchi's wOBA and xwOBA are almost identical and almost exactly league average. WAR measures haven't accurately captured his value.

What about Houston valuing him to the tune of 3 interesting prospects?

I'll speculate that Houston is well aware that WAR flatters him, but they believe they can deploy him more effectively than the Blue Jays and Mariners did.

bpoz - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#451426) #

If Kikuchi stays healthy the rest of the year and Houston makes the playoffs. What $ value do you put on his 2024 season?

Mike Green - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#451429) #

I don't know, Jonny. They may think that they can make him better by a simple fix (perhaps by changing his pitch usage to increase use of the slider and curveball).

electric carrot - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#451431) #

Vlaugust:
426/.491/.851

92-93 - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#451434) #

I'm not convinced the Jays got the IKF signing right. Sure, he looks like great WAR/$, but you also need to consider the opportunity cost. Signing him early meant they were out on Chapman (5.6 WAR), and it freed up the 10MM+ that was spent on doubling down on the mistake of playing 2 CFs everyday in the OF despite being starved for offense. Would the Jays with Chapman and, say, Pederson, still be in the playoff race? Probably.

pooks137 - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#451435) #

Signing Chapman & Pederson still wouldn't have solved the problem that the Jays entered July with essentially 3 MLB quality relievers in their pen - Garcia, Green & Cabrera. And that's being quite generous to Cabrera.

Trevor Richards would've qualified as well if he hadn't been unplayable for most of June & July running up to the deadline.

No doubt Chapman & Pederson would've got them a few wins closer to .500. But they would've had to trade for a closer & multiple relievers at the deadline to even have been taken seriously at a chance at the final wildcard.

uglyone - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#451448) #

Still don't really understand your Kikuchi take, Mike.

Could be you're not properly valuing how good an SP that puts up slightly better than league average numbers (numbers thst include RP) in a full time starting role?

There's nothing spectacular about Kikuchi but over the last 2yrs he's got a 101era- and 92fip- in 5.3ip per start. The numbers are just plain good for a fulltime starter. He puts up around a 2.5war pace and is consistently healthy too.

He's just a good solid mid rotation SP on any team really.

Mike Green - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#451454) #

If you want to argue that Kikuchi is about as valuable as IKF, that's fair. It might not be right though.

ERA- credits or debits the pitcher for the strengths or weaknesses of the defence. Kikuchi gives up a lot of hard-hit balls. Some leave the yard and some Daulton Varsho catches. ERA- credits Kikuchi with the latter ones.

League average pitcher good for 165 innings. Not chopped liver, I'll agree. But not "very good" either.

uglyone - Friday, August 16 2024 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#451455) #

but he's even better on FIP- and RA/9, both which ignore defense completely.

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