Oakland's O/U was 57.5 (on which I placed a modest $100), so they are actually playing relatively well. Fangraphs' projection was significantly higher, though.

I'll be rooting for Vladdy to pass Rooker in OPS this weekend, perhaps even tonight. And it will be fun watching Miller pitch.

I love that Graham Parsons song. The Cowboy Junkies cover is incredible -- better than Parsons' in my view.

The Jays 5.5 games ahead of OAK in the standings.

But OAK has a -72 run differential. The Jays are -88.

Hard to compare run differential between two teams that play much different schedules. Tampa would be a game out in the West.

Nick Ashbourne joined the ranks of us that do not 'understand markets at all' suggesting Vlad has a very good case to make more than $300m on his next deal.

Tonight kicks off a 16 game stretch of facing only sub-.500 opponents. FG still has the Jays with a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance.

I merely stated 2 indisputable facts.

You are free to draw your own conclusions, even Lloyd Christmas style.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/06/magazine/radio-baseball-mets.html

"FG still has the Jays with a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs."

They have not been staying up late to watch the bullpen at work.

IMO anyone who thinks Vlad will sign for under $300 mil is silly. Well, outside of him getting a 3 year deal at $40 mil per or something equally silly. Most have pointed out he is very similar to Bryce Harper at the same age - he got $330 over 13 years. No one had a bigger deal at that time (Trout would get ahead a month later on 3/20/19 with a $426.5 mil deal over 12 years). Harper was a full free agent, not a year away, with a 139 OPS+ lifetime, twice 150+, going into his age 26 season. Vlad is on his 2nd 150+ OPS+ season now, 136 lifetime, in his age 25 season. Both stars who seemed a bit short of early hype but still damn, damn, good. Harper since has a 149 OPS+ after moving from RF to DH to 1B. So Vlad has a touch less defensive skill/value despite his gold glove at 1B (it was a weak year for defensive 1B). So I'd expect it would take $350 mil over 13-15 years to lock him in as a lifetime Jay. At $300 he'd probably demand an exit clause so he could become a free agent around age 29.

Those who think the Jays will get a 5-7 year deal at under $200 mil are dreaming. Maybe pre-2024 but not now.

A $350m 13-15 year deal is a completely different contract from a $350m 8 year deal. One needs to be way more precise than throwing around the term "$300m contract". Leaving aside the massively different AAV, the present value of a $30m contractual payment payable 13-15 years from now is fundamentally different than a $30m contractual payment payable 8 years from now.

To be more precise if the Jays signed Vladdy to a 12 year $325m contract I would think that to be a pretty decent contract for the Jays. If they signed him to an 8 year $325m contract that would be a significant overpay. Completely different contracts.

Oh agreed. 8 years $300 mil would be silly for both parties. Any deal will basically be $300 for whatever the Jays think Vlad can do as an impact player, the rest as a way to get it spread out to cut the luxury tax implications and to get him as a lifetime Jay (vs the sad goodbyes given to Halladay, Delgado, and other great Jays of the past). If he can perform into his 30's he will likely be chasing 3000 hits and maybe 500 HR's. Who wouldn't want to see a lifetime Jay do that?

Also, if you are Vlad, would you really want to sign a 7-8 year deal? That would cover ages 26-32/33 thus putting him back on the market when his value would probably be low and he'd be looking at a 3 year deal at best, maybe coming off a bad year or an injury one (no way of knowing the future). Plus for the Jays it would mean a big luxury tax hit today, which would limit them in 2025/26 (a critical time for the GM & President). Teams are very risk adverse now, and I suspect that'll get stronger as time goes by. I see $50 mil for 7 years of his decline phase (chasing records, being a fan favorite, eventually becoming a platoon DH ala Votto) as a good deal to reduce the tax hit now when it matters most. In 7-8 years a $25 mil deal won't matter as much as it does today for that purpose, thus it wouldn't be a back breaker in his decline years. A $350/15 deal works out to $23.3 per year which is not bad for the tax hit. The Jays might pay out more cash today (reverse of the Dodgers with Ohtani) to get Vlad on the dotted line and to make a buyout of the last few years easier sometime in the 2030s when he approaches retirement.

I love that Graham Parsons song.

Well, yeah!

Now I do so very much hate to be pedantic (yeah, right!) but his name wasn't "Graham." "Gram" was short for "Ingram."

I think Shapiro's quote (about whether front office changes are warranted) is inadvertently revealing: "Be certain you can be better if you make a change."

He likes certainty. He's probably been reluctant to extend Vladdy or Bo for the dollar amount this would require because he hasn't been sure that they are truly star players over the medium/long term. Fair enough. But now he's really going to have to pay if he wants to keep VGJ in Toronto -- assuming Vladdy hasn't already decided to test free agency.

Shapiro said that it's hard to be a contender without having elite players signed to longer term deals.

Tampa and Baltimore have been doing it in recent seasons. He’s right that it’s hard to do, though.

If he wants to wait long enough to be “certain” that a player is elite before signing him to a long-term contract, Shapiro will typically have to pay a premium for that certainty.

Eric Smith is really bad at this whole play by play thing. He kicks ass at guess the attendance games and such but calling the game seems irrelevant to him.

Baltimore has been fielding totally non-competitive teams in recent seasons.
That the Orioles haven't signed any extensions is not a good thing.
Most of these top prospects are looking for huge contracts down the road.

It's not about being "certain". It's about risk valuation.
The Bo contract, for example, was more about removing pressure on a top player than anything else.
They probably figured that the risk that Bichette would miss significant time or underperform was low enough to skip the hassle of arbitration without the benefit of any team options. Yeah.
The risk with pitchers is always very high. The Jays are not trying to avoid paying top performer.

Toronto is not a small market, so the Tampa/Baltimore comparison are not really helpful.
It's Boston and New York that they have to match.

The Yesavage interview was very nice. He's not a huge guy and seems pretty down to earth.

Run that by me again. Varsho makes the first out at third base... Guerrero makes spectacular defensive play...

Baseball is so confusing.

I love that Berrios is staying in here, and don't care if he gives up a 3-run HR. Trust your starter.

Green is on what back to back and four in six? Schneider's going to destroy another reliever. Games don't even mean anything...

Green is on what back to back and four in six?

Not a lot to complain about tonight, but... Anyway, this was just Green's third back-to-back in 2024. The others were in April and July. On all three occasions, he gave up a run in the first game and came back to pitch a scoreless inning in the second game of the back-to-back. And he got the next three days off both times, so I wouldn't expect to see him tomorrow or the next day.

One down, fifteen to go on their sixteen game winning streak vs. teams under .500.

It’s nice to see Horwitz get out in front of the ball and flash that kind of power.

In light of the Wild Card game, it was funny to hear Schneider explain why he left Berrios in to face a guy for the 4th time. His stuff did look very good.

Vlad's stats looking august:
.524/.615/1.095

(now down after going 2/4 this eve.)

Maybe Schneider is learning. Or it is due to having a pen of Green or turn green (ie: get sick). Right now is a great time to see who he can trust with seeing a lineup 4 times through and other stuff - win or lose it doesn't really matter too much, but pushing guys to new limits or seeing if they can still do stuff they used to do is a great idea. Just don't get them hurt.

"but his name wasn't "Graham." "Gram" was short for "Ingram.""

Oh, jeez. I guess I never really caught on to that spelling. I'd like to say I just wanted to add a little extra fun in his name (ha!) but really the truth is I woulda spelled it wrong forever without this note.

I took a look at the Jays stats for the first time in a while.
I thought I'd heard the problem was offense,
but it turns out the 'runs allowed' situation has been a lot worse:

 Runs Scored Per 9 IP   Runs Allowed Per 9 IP        Winning Percentage
( 1)   NYYankees 5.15 | ( 1)     Seattle 3.82 | ( 1)   Guardians  67-47  .588
( 2)     Orioles 5.13 | ( 2)   Guardians 4.02 | ( 2)     Orioles  68-48  .586
( 3)        Rsox 4.99 | ( 3)      Royals 4.06 | ( 2)   NYYankees  68-48  .586
( 4)   Minnesota 4.97 | ( 4)   NYYankees 4.17 | ( 4)   Minnesota  63-50  .558
( 5)      Royals 4.89 | ( 5)      Astros 4.23 | ( 5)      Royals  64-52  .552
( 6)   Guardians 4.71 | ( 6)     Orioles 4.35 | ( 6)        Rsox  61-52  .540
( 7)      Astros 4.61 | ( 7)      Tigers 4.39 | ( 7)      Astros  59-55  .518
( 8)     Rangers 4.31 | ( 8)        Rays 4.39 | ( 8)     Seattle  60-56  .517
( 9)    Bluejays 4.25 | ( 9)   Minnesota 4.50 | ( 9)        Rays  58-56  .509
(10)      Tigers 4.20 | (10)     Rangers 4.51 | (10)      Tigers  55-61  .474
(11)          As 4.15 | (11)        Rsox 4.68 | (11)     Rangers  54-61  .470
(12)      Angels 4.14 | (12)          As 4.78 | (12)    Bluejays  53-62  .461
(13)        Rays 3.99 | (13)      Angels 4.91 | (13)      Angels  51-64  .443
(14)     Seattle 3.98 | (14)    Bluejays 5.04 | (14)          As  48-68  .414
(15)   White Sox 3.17 | (15)   White Sox 5.36 | (15)   White Sox  28-89  .239
             Avg 4.44                Avg 4.48                    857-869     

(through games of Thu Aug 8/24)

As was pointed out by Shapiro a few days back, it is the bullpen (rather than all pitching). Jays starters are 11th worst in MLB (so a bit below average) with an ERA of 4.29 when the median starters have an ERA of 4.16. Jays relievers are 2nd worst in MLB with an ERA of 5.11 when the median relievers have an ERA of 3.98.

I mean the starters have also been worse than you'd expect coming into the season when our rotation was a strength; however, they are still close to average. You might think the starters era is negatively effected by the bad relievers allowing inherited runners to score, but actually the Jays relievers - despite being awful overall - have actually been about average there allowing 32% of inherited runs to score where the typical team is on 33%.

I'm also onboard with Shapiro's comments about making sure you can improve if you make a change. It is one of the reasons that I'm skeptical about changing Shapiro/Atkins - I don't expect we'd get better. If there does end up being someone clearly better, go for it, but that would be a surprise to me. Now on the manager/coaching front, it is hard to tell from the outside, but I'd be more willing to explore rolling the dice there (in the offseason).

Lastly, pay the man (Vlad).

I guess I never really caught on to that spelling.

A natural assumption, I suppose, but I must now assume you haven't read any of the (at least!) three full length biographies of this obscure musician who died more than fifty years ago having never come close to having anything resembling a hit record.

Logically, if front offices should never make a change unless they’re sure it will
make them better, the Blue Jays should not have ousted AA. This is because the organization could not have been sure that hiring Atkins and Shapiro would produce a better-performing team.

Metafour, Jess Passan has since walked back his comments regarding Vlad and his value. He now thinks 300 million is the floor after many in thd industry called him an idiot for saying otherwise. Player he used as a new comparable? Devers...

Michael, you can't just look at ERA and say jays starters have been average because their D has been so great so an average staff would have a better than average era. Their starter FIP is 20th.

This narrative has been debunked so many times. AA left because he wanted to. He was not ousted.

Although trying to get rid of AA for something different is proof of what you are saying, Shapiro and especially Atkins had little, if anything to do with that.

Ed Rogers told Beeston he wanted AA gone during the early part of the 2015 season. Meanwhile, Rogers was trying to get Kenny Williams to replace the retiring Beeston, then tried for Dan Duquette, when Chicago wouldn't let Williams leave. But Duquette was under contract as well and Baltimore wanted big time compensation, with Jeff Hoffman (who the Jays had picked 9th overall the year prior) reported as a demand. The Jays refused the Orioles' demands and pivoted to Shapiro.

Beeston had told AA of Rogers plans to dump him. So when AA's moves got the Jays into the playoffs and Rogers changed his mind and offered AA a contract, AA basically told him to stick it where the sun don't shine.

As for Atkins, he wasn't hired until early December, replacing Tony LaCava, who had been acting as the interim GM.

Two things bother me about Shapiro’s comment:

1. In life, you can rarely be certain that making a change will lead to a better outcome. Sometimes you still need to go for it. Certainty is too high a bar to clear, and expressing that as the standard indicates a mindset that is probably too conservative, cautious or rigid.

2. It shouldn’t be for the incumbent to determine when a change is warranted, because the incumbent (in this case, Shapiro or his personal hire Atkins) has a personal interest in maintaining the status quo.

Thanks hypobole for the history on how Shapiro was hired.

I am personally dividing the season into before the trade deadline and after the trade deadline to compare W-L record. No Kikuchi for the "After" team which I think is a major factor.

Not sure how to evaluate the Pen or Schneiders managing before/after.

When you spend $70m on your top 4 starters and get slightly below average pitching from them you have a problem. Obviously, the relievers have been a tire fire but that’s a different problem.

The Starting pitching stats include our #5's too remember - Manoah, Rodriguez, Francis, Richards, and Espino. But yeah, the big 4 aren't having as good a year as hoped - ERA+'s: 102-92-103-86, funny enough the worst is Kikuchi. The others are 106-75-111-88-51 (in order). Francis though has a 6.65 ERA as a starter (ick) while Richards has a 0 (4 1/3 IP).

To compete in 2021, 22 & 23 the plan was to spend money and we did that and had success. There was no money to spend for 2024 so the team was not really improved. Maybe we still compete if injuries and poor performance did not happen.

Who do you blame for injuries and poor performance? At least Schneider/game strategy department seems to have improved as a manager.

Quick reminder for some that the Toronto Blue Jays are a privately owned company. They are non a non profit or government organization. If they say things that are disingenuous or not 100% transparent its your choice to stop supporting or to be bothered but to pretend that they are bound to some kind of standard of control and transparency like they are treating drinking water is a bit silly imho.

Vlad is amazing, Jays are winning more...so here come the complaints about the starters, the overuse of Green and of course the calls of reminder concerning the GUILE this FO had regarding AA.

Meh. Owners come and go. They're just renting our team for a while.

I know that this bothers some of the people here, but when rogers cashes out, I am really looking forward to them removing that statue of uncle ted.

Rogers are one of the best owners in baseball. There used to be more good owners but they mostly died and left the team's to their sons who run them like businesses rather than passion projects (Detroit, New York, Baltimore before sale etc...). The Ted rogers statue is absurd though. There should be a handful of statues around the stadium. Joe carter jumping, Bautista bat flip, George Bell on his knees, etc...

"having never come close to having anything resembling a hit record."

True. But still easily one of the best songwriters of his generation.

Here's that Cowboy Junkies Cover of Ooh Last Vegas:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGxm1j5NsFU

"Ooh Las Vegas" I meant to write.

This album of covers GP covers I think is the one of the best of its kind. Great songs, and nearly every cover pushes the song into a slightly different, but still fascinating universe. I bought it in the early 2000s and I still listen to it regularly.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLr1fYOvQFfPcYxgDyDbOq3Xs-UR4GjB28

The Ted rogers statue is absurd though. There should be a handful of statues around the stadium. Joe carter jumping, Bautista bat flip, George Bell on his knees, etc...

Me paying my Rogers bills...

Rogers has been great since Shapiro took over. He seems to have the magic formula to get them to invest heavily into the team. It’s not their fault the Jays are straddling the CBT with a last place team. Ownership has held up their end lately.

If the Jays were average to above average at player development then I don’t think we’d be clamoring for a front office change. That’s the biggest issue, and with the spending pool for both the amateur draft and international signings, that’s not on ownership either. If Shapiro is fine with Atkins staying, then at the very least they need to acknowledge the need for change in their development process. Without that, just running it back and throwing more money at the big league roster is not going to work.

Rogers has been great since Shapiro took over. He seems to have the magic formula to get them to invest heavily into the team.

I'd quibble that Shapiro only extracted big market spending from Rogers since 2020 with the signing of Ryu. Though they've certainly been generous with budgets since.

Shapiro seemed to sell Rogers on a JP Ricciardi-like "I can compete with a middle market budget with the proper systems & philosophy" from 2016-2019.

They didn't keep investing in the 2015-16 core when it started to go poorly. They cheaped out on Encarnacion, pretending they could replace him on the cheap with Kendry Morales. They tradedd Donaldson for essentially no return because they didn't want to pay the man when he started to show a few warts.

They gave Randal Grichuk a bizarre 5-year extension that no one asked for. This type of move is more reminiscent of buyouts that low & midmarket teams like Cleveland do for cost certainty.

Selling off Stroman with 14 months of control left in 2019 was also more of a midmarket vs big market move.

With the signings of Ryu, Springer, Gausman & Bassitt, Shapiro did have Rogers start acting like a big market club over the last 5 years.

But as others have mentioned, the modern Jays are flawed because they have an expensive rotation on the decline, two stars that entered the organization with the change to new management and not much else.

I think Rogers can also be credited for investing in more than the major league roster - the complex in Dunedin, the stadium upgrades (both player- and fan-friendly) come to mind.

Me paying my Rogers bills...

LOL

Literally.

The budget was 81 million with the Jays taking on $25 and the state doing the rest mostly from a county bed tax. The cost jumped up and the Jays final bill was about $50million. The original deal they had was the Jays would pay under $16million.

Obviously state financing of sports complexes has come under a bunch of scrutiny so there's a limit to how much shade to throw at Shapiro's ability to negotiate this one without me digging a lot deeper into the process. That said, the Red Sox and Cubs did not put that much in to renovating something they have no equity in. On the other hand: Rogers can just charge us all a bit more for cell phones - since the telecom "industry" is three friends in a trench coat, it's not like this would ever cause any actual market discipline.

Long story short: Shapiro extracted $50 from Canadians to finance a facility in a foreign country that other teams have been able to get all (or a lot more) paid for.

A few silver linings to the season:

-With or without the help of the coaching staff, Vladdy has dramatically turned his season around in recent months

-Yariel Rodriguez looks like a good signing

-The Buffalo boys have been contributors, and one or more of them are likely to be helpful next year (Clement, Horwitz, Jimenez, Schneider)

-The recent draft looks promising

-The team seems to have gotten under the CBT threshold for 2025

Not sure how you get from this roster to “contender” in 2025, but the situation could be worse.

Jays lost 1-0 to Oakland. So good pitching.

Don't know if anyone else is watching the Bison's game but Votto just struck out swinging (on three pitches). The camera stayed with him and, well, there were a few thousand words in those pictures.

Jays picked up another throwaway reliever Luis Frias from the Diamondbacks on waivers.

26 y/o RHP, 4.99 FIP in 57 innings in 4 seasons, 1.16 SO/W ratio.

Out of options next year.

I hope all these fungible reliever types all get DFA/non-tendered in the offseason rather than taking up 40-man room.

I gotta think the Frias' on the roster are here just to fill innings until the season ends.

Plenty of good to very good relievers were picked up for nothing at some point. They finally ended up on a team that managed to unlock their potential. Smart move to take a chance on a live arm like Frias at this point in time.

Buffalo infield today. Horwitz, Jimenez, Clement and De Los Santos.

Looking like it's gonna be a bullpen day.

Clement is a fine backup infielder but he doesn't have to play every single game. Managers have always loved their scrappy infielders. Barger has 4 starts in August, Schneider has 5 starts. Clement has 9 including 6 not at SS. I don't get it because the whole message is "Let's see what we have on our roster" and they're giving most of the abs to a 28 YO utility infielder. Clement should play plenty especially with Bo out but you need to give the young guys a run of play. Can Barger or Schneider be a everyday players or. Part of the team next year? We can't possibly know because they only play once in a while. I know Clement can be a utility infielder and I know he shouldn't be a starting player. That's not going to change playing him 3 times or 6 times a week.

I dunno. Clement is 313/345/374 over the last month with regular play.

I've long given up hope on D Schneider.

Clement could be that guy that plays almost every day in a bunch of positions supporting the young players/ giving Bo a day off etc. I think they are trying to confirm that.

I also don't see a problem with essentially telling the young guys you need to earn full time at bats.

If Clement is playing almost every day, Jays are not going to be contending. He's a useful player, but he's a backup on a good team /starter on a poor team sort of player. I'm fine with that and it has value but if you aren't contending, I'd much rather give my abs to someone who has a chance of being in every day player. It's true, you never know who a player is going to be but I'd put money on who Clement is. It just isn't possible to be a good everyday player walking 2% of the time unless you're an elite fielder and Clement isn't.

Can you be a good everyday player walking 2% of the time without being an elite defender?  Of course,  if you don't strike out and you hit 30 homers.  Clement has part a., but won't get to part b.  Can you do it another way?  Sure.  If you have a line-drive rate of 25-27% and you don't pop up or strikeout much and you have medium range pop and you play good defence at an important position and run well, that's a 4-5 WAR player.  Could Clement do that?  The odds are certainly against it, but I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility.  It's simply an accentuation of skills he already has mostly. 

The Jays are 10 games under .500 after finishing last year 16 games over. That 26 game drop off is the same as Texas who are 8 games under after finishing 18 games over last year. What surprised me is that 3 teams have had a bigger drop.

Tampa, 36 over to 1 over has had a 35 game drop. Miami from 6 over to 31 under has has a 37 game drop.

Anyone know which team has dropped off the most from last year?

I'd guess the White Sox, but I remember them being pretty bad last year also - but is the gap between bad and historically bad greater than the Jays' 'competitive' and 'deadline seller' gap?

First of all I agree with Glevin. Several players are on an every second day schedule and need more paying time.

Secondly I was at the game today and I had two thoughts. First, I am happy that De Los Santos got his hits today but I am fine with sending him back to the minors. Lets have a look at Will Wagner to see what we have.

Third, and sorry Mike Green, I would ship Davis Schneider back to AAA to find his form and confidence again. I would give Alan Roden a look before the season ends.

Nate Lukes is also on the comeback trail but at this stage he is a sub if anything as he is 30 now.

I'm fine with Davis Schneider being in Buffalo, as I agree that his confidence has taken a hit and it is affecting him. I'm not fine with John Schneider managing the club.

The Shapiro-Atkins-Schneider nexus reminds me a bit of the Singh-Trudeau nexus in Parliament (interestingly, both overall tenures have lasted about nine years). Lately, they have been both unpopular and unsuccessful, but, by gosh, they are going to hold on to power every month until they are finally forced out.

I'll add that I don't really see Loperfido as a big league guy and should join Davis in AAA. Give more time to see what Barger can do and give some more ABs to Berroa before giving Clase some time.

Hypobole,

Lets wait until next game thread... no sense starting another debate involving the golden boy...

yeah i'm in agreeance that the likes of Schneider/Loperfido/Wagner should be battling for playing time going forward not having it handed it to them.

IMO they shouldn't get the leeway actual kids like Jimenez, Clase, Orelvis should get.

Barger I have a bit more patience for than that first 3 but not a ton more. and Horwitz keeps earning it but i'm not totally convinced he doesn't also fall back in amongst that group tbh.

I think Clement could put up 2 WAR across 450-500 ABs. I think you could do much worse when he’s making league minimum. I would have no problem if he was part of the INF situation next year. I also understand that his margin for error is small due to his refusal to walk. In a stars and scrubs lineup he’s found gold. The problem is that the Jays in 2025 project to be the “anti stars and scrubs” lineup whereby they have a guy fighting to be league average at 6-7 positions. In that context, Clement isn’t as appealing.

I see almost nothing interesting in Loperfido. I would send him down and bring up Wagner. His plate discipline gives him a shot that Looerfido doesn’t have.

I imagine the Braves have fallen off quite a bit, with MVP and Cy Young candidates Acuna Jr. and Strider (among others) out for the season with injuries. Last year those two players combined for 14.5 fWAR. And last month Albies (4 WAR last year) fractured his wrist; he’s out until at least September. Atlanta is still five games above .500 despite those injuries.

Actual prospects developed by the Jays need to fight and claw for playing time while Loperfido comes in a trade and immediately plays everyday and even batted 2nd right out of the gate. What’s the logic behind playing time? Davis Schneider was platooned earlier in the year despite being one of the best hitters on the team early on. Barger barely plays. John Schneider is a rare breed of being awful for a contending team and equally bad with a rebuilding team. I really hope he doesn’t stick around after this season.

Chris Bassitt quote after the game when a reporter asked him about the six run first inning he gave up, "Roof being closed, completely different than roof being open, wasn't ready for it."

Seriously, Chris? You don't throw a knuckleball and after a season and two thirds with the Jays, you must have pitched with the roof being open and closed. I'd much rather hear him say, " I just didn't have it today.", rather than this B.S. Bassitt is a cerebral guy but it seems like he can get in his own head at times, like his first game last season when he wasn't used to the pitch clock.

Considering it was a seller's market, it was an ideal time to trade him at the deadline but I've no idea who would have replaced his innings in the starting rotation.

SK it boils down to self preservation. You want to keep your job? You fall 100% in line with what your bosses are telling you to do. John Schneider wants to be managing or coaching in the big leagues for a long time. He's going to follow what the analytics department is telling him about Loperfido, not try to get Davis Schneider back on track.

D Schneider with 425 ABs has 18 Hr which is the best part of his game. His 2 months of play in 2023 was great and terrible which had many of us doubting him. There are the same doubts due to his 2024 results. Loperfido had 25 Hr in 2023 and 15 so far in 2024. He needs more playing time to establish who he in in the major leagues. Horwitz, Barger and Jimenez all need playing time. Being on the 40 man roster they all get 1st crack at playing time while still giving playing time to veterans like Springer.

Many of us are not sure who is deciding the playing time. Schneider or the analytics department.

Clase being on the 40 man roster probably gets called up. Maybe a Sept callup.

There's always something to be said for "letting the young guys play" in a lost season. But these guys are young-ish and it's not clear that 2024 will reveal who, if any, will turn into something.

Going into 2025, Loperfido and Barger will be 25, Schneider 26 and Horwitz 27. Jimenez and Martinez will be 23, but the former will cede to Bichette, if he's still here, and the latter, well, let's see what comes after the suspension.

So the unestablished "young guys" getting the playing time now are generally not terribly young for prospects, not hitting well and don't have obvious defensive positions, at least where they can be adding value when not hitting.

As others have mentioned, the basis of a core that will contend in 2025 is not exactly clear.

It is really ridiculous to suggest that John isn't giving Davis a fair shake. Perhaps management has just been right about him all along, and fans got too excited about his early exposure to MLB.

I think the manager is doing a great job of doling out playing time to all this AAAA talent.

IMO most impressive qualified hitting performances in full season milb for 18yr olds (or younger):


* 1. SS S.Walcott (18, A+): 398pa, 119wrc+
* 2. OF G.Wolkow (18, A): 223pa, 143wrc+
* 3. OF N.Rada (18, AA): 395pa, 78wrc+
* 4. SS L.DeVries (17, A): 338pa, 118wrc+
* 5. OF Y.Rodriguez (18, A): 393pa, 121wrc+
* 6. SS A.Nimmala (18, A): 266pa, 114wrc+
* 7. C E.Salas (18, A+): 375pa, 72wrc+
* 8. C J.Flores (18, A+): 133pa, 52wrc+ --- (A): 208pa, 104wrc+
* 9. OF N.Ochoa (18, A): 344pa, 107wrc+
* 10. SS T.Peete (18, A): 427pa, 92wrc+

The bosses telling Schneider to force feed Loperfido plate appearances even when he would swing and miss at a beach ball while giving inconsistent playing time to players they’ve spent years trying to develop just doesn’t make sense. Maybe that’s what’s happening, but either way it’s not a good look. Maybe Loperfido is the only one they feel comfortable playing LF defensively. That’s the only thing I can think of, but he’s clearly not big league ready with the bat despite his age.

I tend to agree that the real prospects on the team are Orelvis, Jimenez, and Clase. From an age and upside standpoint, those are the players to look at as potential core pieces. The others (Schneider, Horwitz, Barger, Loperfido, Wagner, etc) seem more like “give them at bats and hope someone sticks”.

It makes perfect sense. They feel they know what they have in Schneider, and want to get a look at Loperfido at the MLB level. Schneider got his opportunity and his performance has dictated his playing time. They will not continue to roll Loperfido out there much longer if this level of play persists.

Giving Loperfido 8 games isnt a big deal.

Generally a new organization wants to let a new guy do his thing before altering mechanics etc.

He did quite well in AAA and they likely wanted to see if he could hold his own in MLB, and he did ok in HOU (236/299/359).

Makes sense to give him some run.

How much of a chance did Schneider get? He hit the crap out of the ball most of 2023, then after a terrible slump was benched for the rest of the year pretty much. A bad spring (159/240/318) helped justify putting him on the bench part-time in April (just 74 PA) despite a hot April when the team was having troubles (132 sOPS+).

His May was hotter (139 sOPS+) and he got more playing time 107 PA. June sucked (43 sOPS+) and his playing time dropped to 87 PA, July sucked too (55 sOPS+) with time going the same 66 PA. August has been horrid -24 sOPS+ and just 22 PA so far.

For comparison, Springer has had a bad year outside of July and part of June (94 sOPS+ June, 129 July) and is on a horrid streak again in August (6 sOPS+) but never was under 88 PA any month. Kiermaier was a 4th OF all along (49-62 PA per month) and hit like it (sOPS+ of 38-104-6-67 here). Turner was up and down (153-4-159-87 sOPS+ by month) here but had 81-109 PA each month regardless of performance.

Hmmm.... maybe I was wrong. Maybe Schneider did get his playing time but played himself out of it with 2 straight bad months (June/July). Sometimes what we think we see is adjusted by our own biases - in this case wanting Schneider to be giving a full shot and feeling the other Schneider wasn't giving him it.

Horwitz hasn't had that bad a slump yet - by month sOPS+ of 162-90-100, damn solid for a guy mostly at 2B, a bit weak after a hot start for 1B. He got 108 PA in July and earned that full-time shot and didn't do badly but did slump a bit, so a few more days off here and there makes sense. I can see a case for a sorta-platoon of Horwitz and Schneider. Horwitz is 138 vs RHP, 39 vs LHP, Schneider 93-66 (huh, both have trouble vs LHP, that sucks). What about Power/Finesse? Schneider 102-75; Horwitz 176-114 for P-F...hrm. Still same weakness. Fly ball/Ground ball pitchers? Schneider 102-53; Horwitz: 135-87. Argh! Why can't one be strong where the other is weak? Night-Day: Schneider 56-116; Horwitz: 135-103 - finally a difference. So play Schneider during the day (weekend warrior), Horwitz at night (Mon-Fri). Yeah, they won't do that, but it sure was hard to find anything where one did well and the other didn't.

How much of a chance did Schneider get?

Well, only three guys on the team have had more Plate Appearances. He's been given a bit of a look.

Is it that all the Buffalo players are AAAA guys, or that the Blue Jays manager and coaching staff aren't skilled enough to help them elevate their offensive game?

the thing about Loperfido is that he's not the most deserving of playing time, not based on MLB performance or AAA performance.


His mlb 66wrc+ is terrible, and even worse is that it's backed by a 39% k-rate. He's been a bit better than Barger's 46wrc+, but he's a) older than Barger, b) Barger's got a bit of a babip excuse still, and c) Barger has actually improved and been legit good the past few weeks, while Loperfido had a hot start to the year and has been terrible recently. He's been better than Berroa but Berroa has a tiny sample and nobody actually thinks Berroa is a player anyways.

and in terms of AAA performance he doesn't stand out at all either, especially factoring in age:

* Horwitz (26) 158wrc+
* Jimenez (23) 130wrc+
* Wagner (25) 129wrc+
* Barger (24) 126wrc+
* Berroa (25) 122wrc+
* Loferpido (25) 122wrc+
* Tirotta (25) 120wrc+
* Martinez (22) 119wrc+
* DeLosSantos (26) 114wrc+
* Clase (22) 111wrc+


I'd argue that Loperfido is one of the least deserving of playing time of the tweeners tbh.

Perhaps it has nothing to do with coaching at all. Perhaps MLB is just hard, as a new crop of top players struggle each year once teams figure out how to pitch to them. It's a never ending series of adjustments; sometimes players will make them quickly, sometimes slowly, sometimes not at all.

There's a very real chance Loperfido is our next Derek Fisher, unfortunately. Though it's too early to tell. He certainly was the highest risk part of the trade, and it was funny seeing Houston people seem more upset about giving him up more than anything.

I think Horwitz is a keeper. That shot to the 3rd deck in right Thursday night was majestic. I'd slide him into a platoon with a righty that hits lefties well (preferably a better defender than Spencer as well) and they'd be ahead of the game at 2nd base in '25 me thinks.

I think the participants in the Competition for Mediocrity (Clement; Schneider; Barger; Jimenez; Loperfido; Horwitz; Berroa) are all being given a pretty good run. I think its hard to criticize Schneider on that front. Other than maybe Jimenez, these were all marginal prospects so expectations for success should be low. I think Clement and Horwitz will have the best combination of talent and opportunity to give the team some league average (ish) contributions next year. I'm still optimistic about Jimenez's future. I really don't know what to make of Schneider but, regardless, he needs a reset in AAA. I'd be surprised if Loperfido, Barger or Berroa turn into much but I'm fully supportive of giving them all as many ABs as the can for the remainder of the season.

If Bichette and Guerrero play like stars, Springer plays like he has in the 2nd half and they add a big DH bat, plus make offensive upgrades at 2nd and LF they will be fine offensively. I think all of those things are well within their reach. The hardest part is figuring out the rotation and bullpen. They definitely need a couple one year deals to pan out.

"and it was funny seeing Houston people seem more upset about giving him up more than anything."

a hot start can go a long way.

He came up like a house on fire. 160ish wrc+ over his first 50pa, Still 120ish after 100pa.

When a prospect comes up hitting like that, fans don't usually want to hear much about him having a .650babip in the first 50pa and still a .450ish babip at 100pa.

Springer has actually been worse in the second half (since ASB) despite higher babip. RIP Summer of George, I guess.

I'm not saying there is a big difference between Loperfido and Barger as prospects, they are likely equally as unlikely to turn into above average big league regulars, but Loperfido coming over and immediately getting everyday starts plus hitting 2nd, while Barger's time being sporadic even when he actually does well is very noticeable. Barger hit a HR and a double off high 90's FB's from Grayson Rodriguez, then drew a walk without seeing a FB in his next AB, and yet didn't start the next 2 games after that. Loperfido is 0 for 100 with 90 K's (at least it feels that way) and is getting way more of an extended run, and I'm not sure why because he had a near 30% K rate in AAA so not sure what they were expecting when he came up.

I think not playing Davis Schneider early on (and playing Biggio over him in 2023) was a much bigger deal than the current playing time situation, but I'm sometimes unsure of what the Jays are actually trying to do or what they look for in determining playing time.

Sounds like Wagner is up and De Los Santos down. right move.

I agree that, if there is a player with some complaint, its Barger. But he has a problem - he doesn't really have a position that he can play. His one positive defensive attribute is his arm so I would guess that RF would be his best position but there's tens of millions of committed salary dollars between Barger and getting to play RF in Toronto. Barger should really get a good chunk of Schneider's ABs with Schneider going to Buffalo for a reset.

I also would like to see Barger get a bit of run over the next six weeks, and I think it needs to be at third base. He's hit just .213/.253/.373 since he came back, which obviously isn't good enough. But his playing time has been extremely spotty - he's started just 19 of the 47 games, and most of them were in the outfield. I think while he may have but a slim chance of becoming a major league third baseman, he has zero chance of making this team as an outfielder.

He's been blocked at third base by Ernie Clement. I think Clement is a keeper, but not at third base. I think he's your fifth infielder, backing up three positions and abusing left-handed pitching. To that end, I would have liked to see a little more of him at shortstop while Bichette's been out (which he's starting to get, I notice.) I understand why they've been giving Jimenez a chance to play, but I don't know that Jimenez even makes the roster in 2025.

Plausible Best Possible Linups...

Using this year's stats only:


* 1. DH Horwitz 215pa, 120wrc+, 3.3war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 510pa, 162wc+, 4.5war/650
* 3. CF Varsho 408pa, 96wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 4. 3B Clement 286pa, 93wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 5. RF Springer 457pa, 91wrc+, 1.1war/650
* 6. LF Schneider 357pa, 89wrc+, 0.9war/650
* 7. C Kirk 243pa, 84wrc+, 3.7war/650
* 8. 2B Jimenez 93pa, 82wrc+, -0.7war/650
* 9. SS Bichette 331pa, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650

* X. OF Loperfido 151pa, 66wrc+, 0.4war/650
* X. UT Barger 98pa, 46wrc+, -2.0war/650
* X. C Serven 32pa, 24wrc+, -4.1war/650
* X. IF Wagner

* X. IF DeLosSantos 8pa, 131wrc+, 8.1war/650
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, 90wrc+, -21.7war/650
* X. OF Berroa 24pa, 34wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, 32wrc+, -3.0war/650

* (X. IF Falefa 317pa, 113wrc+, 4.3war/650)
* (X. DH Turner 387pa, 110wrc+, 0.7war/650)
* (X. C Jansen 248pa, 102wrc+, 2.1war/650)
* (X. UT Biggio 219pa, 86wrc+, 0.9war/650)
* (X. PH Vogelbach 79pa, 68wrc+, -2.5war/650)
* (X. OF Kiermaier 233pa, 48wrc+, 0.3war/650)



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

* 1. DH Horwitz 249pa, 118wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 694pa, 152wrc+, 3.7war/650
* 3. LF Schneider 471pa, 107wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 4. CF Varsho 557pa, 102wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 5. 3B Clement 328pa, 98wrc+, 3.2war/650
* 6. RF Springer 644pa, 97wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 7. C Kirk 368pa, 86wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 8. 2B Jimenez 93pa, 82wrc+, -0.7war/650
* 9. SS Bichette 461pa, 74wrc+, 0.7war/650

* X. OF Loferpido 151pa, 66wrc+, 0.4war/650
* X. UT Barger 98pa, 46wrc+, -2.0war/650
* X. C Serven 32pa, 24wrc+, -4.1war/650
* X. IF Wagner

* X. IF DeLosSantos 8pa, 131wrc+, 8.1war/650
* X. OF Lukes 2pa, 124wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, 90wrc+, -21.7war/650
* X. PH Votto 80pa, 55wrc+, -3.3war/650
* X. OF Berroa 24pa, 34wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, 32wrc+, -3.0war/650

* (X. PH Vogelbach 158pa, 122wrc+, 1.8war/650)
* (X. C Jansen 286pa, 116wrc+, 3.2war/650)
* (X. PH Turner 562pa, 106wrc+, 0.3war/650)
* (X. UT Biggio 364pa, 99wrc+, 1.8war/650)
* (X. IF Falefa 398pa, 97wrc+, 3.1war650)
* (X. OF Kiermaier 342pa, 62wrc+, 1.3war/650)





Using Fangraphs' Combined Rest of Season Depth Chart Projections:

* 1. DH Horwitz 126pa, 115wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 182pa, 148wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 3. SS Bichette 121pa, 113wrc+, 3.2war/650
* 4. C Kirk 114pa, 112wrc+, 5.1war/650
* 5. RF Springer 171pa, 109wrc+, 2.3war/650
* 6. LF Schneider 130pa, 107wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 7. 2B Wagner 43pa, 107wrc+, 3.0war/650
* 8. CF Varsho 171pa, 104wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 9. 3B Clement 113pa, 98wrc+, 2.3war/650

* X. UT Barger 117pa, 95wrc+, 1.1war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 54pa, 91wrc+, 2.4war/650
* X. OF Loferpido 126pa, 85wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Serven 56pa, 56wrc+, 0.0war/650

* X. IF Martinez 48pa, 93wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. PH Votto 45pa, 90wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 19pa, 79wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Berroa 43pam, 74wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF DeLosSantos 20pa, 73wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Raposo 5pa, 68wrc+, 0.0war/650

* (X. C Jansen 107pa, 112wrc+, 3.6war/650)
* (X. PH Vogelbach 19pa, 109wrc+, 0.0war/650)
* (X. PH Turner 152pa, 108wrc+, 1.3war/650)
* (X. UT Biggio 47pa, 94wrc+, 0.0war/650pa)
* (X. IF Falefa 128pa, 92wrc+, 2.0war/650pa)
* (X. OF Kiermaier 49pa, 81wrc+, 1.3war/650pa)

I'm curious about why Yesavage isn't pitching. This seems to be what the Jays do...ostensibly to limit innings and protect arms.

Let's see how that's working out: Tiedemann, Barriera, Maroudis are all out with TJ, in addition to Manoah who pitched his draft year - arguably broke last year.

It seems like, to me, someone that isn't a phsyician or surgeon but has read the sports medicine journals...humans aren't supposed to throw overhand. What "science" are teams reading?

The innings limits and so on really seem to be another classic example of MLB groupthink like RBIs and traditional counting stats used to be. Guys break because humans have not evolved to throw overhand. Suppinators appear to break more than guys that only pronate, or at least mostly pronate (ie. FB/CB/CH arsenal vs Slider-Slurve-etc). Almost everyone throws a pitch using suppination, pitchers are chasing spin rate and it's measured, so they are progressively attempting to increase that - that chase leads to higher stresses on the elbow.

Some supinators don't break, or break less frequently. Repair is now mostly routine. There are new procedures (brace) that seem to improve the techniques.

Given these circumstances, WHY....WHYYYYYYY are the Jays messing around with innings limits? If you want pitchers to last longer...stop them from throwing sliders. Okay, not an option since it's a really effective pitch...then act like a VC and fail faster. Just pitch these guys. ride them hard, put them away wet. get them to the majors quick, while they're young, they're likely not going to free agency...use up those innings. Tiedemann was gassing MLB'rs in 2023 spring, and his stuff looked worse this year to my eye.

I really don't get the obsession with pseudo science that continues amongst these teams. there is so much money involved, they're all acting on a precautionary principle that makes sense in theory, but just does not bear out in practice. it's probably costing them money and wins. I have read a bunch of takes on both sides of this argument, I've looked at the numbers...there aren't that many more TJ now than before (there are more, and perhaps statistically significant, I think next year or the following will be needed to see if this is an ongoing trend) - but is this happening IN SPITE of innings limits, or BECAUSE of them?

We don't know, there are a lot of factors, but it seems to be that the biggest factor is: what pitches does the pitcher throw, and genetics.

Teams can only control one of those variables, and they are not doing that. They've decided it's worth selecting supinators and high-velocity, so...why are they also committed to actions that make very little sense like innings limits?

We need a new science around recovery times. Because Tiedemann was having innings managed...but if you are still being trained to throw every 5 days...maybe that isn't enough recovery time. maybe it's too much recovery time.

Personally, I think genetics is all this is. TINSTAAPP because it's just a dice roll on whose ligaments are strong enough, or whose elbows are rounded enough to not shear/fray the UCL...until the evidence is in...why follow the crowd when it clearly is not producing any better results in terms of health? WHY? I thought this front office was supposed to be "smart". right now the leading edge thinking (that I am offering) is to ride them hard and put them away wet and hope for the best. until I see compelling arguments to the contrary it's just a bunch of warring pseudo-science against the clear message from Andrew, Jobe, and the rest: humans ought not throw overhand or play tennis. Since that's off the table...the path forward ought to be clear.

Wagner is an odd fit for the club as a LHH whose best positions are 1B and 2B - with a contact/get-on-base approach (Hello Horwitz). Or the Jays saw enough in his one AAA game at 3B to bump him ahead of Barger and his rocket arm. Or Horwitz/Vladdy are going to spend more time sharing 1B/DH.

I don't see much in Loperfido's bat... there is some power but the hit tool is Varsho-esque. He should be batting 7/8/9 or in AAA...