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Back from a week+ away - did anything interesting happen? Oh, it did.

Numbers via FanGraphs (tend to be the easiest to use)

Old guys who are gone:
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa - we barely knew ya. 2.0 fWAR while here, projected 0.3 to 0.5 the rest of 2024. 2025 projection was just 0.3 fWAR so not much lost most likely unless he keeps going like he has here (116 wRC+, next best in his career is a 91 in 2020, 86 in a full year-2022)
  • Danny Jansen - was the longest Jay for a brief period. 0.6 fWAR while here, 9.6 lifetime pre-trade. Projection was nice for 2024 rest of season at 0.5-0.8 fWAR, then a free agent with 2.0 and 1.9 fWAR projections the next 2 years. Hopefully he comes back this winter.
  • Justin Turner - another we barely knew. 0.4 while here, 0.1-0.4 projected ROS. Then a free agent, with 2025/26 projected at 0.7 and 0.3 fWAR each.
  • Kevin Kiermaier - fun guy, but his time was up.  0.3 while here, 0.1-0.5 ROS. Then retires so any projection for 2025 is irrelevant. His interview on the Deep Left Field podcast was nice to listen to - it was from just before he was traded. He seems to have loved his time here and will always wonder 'what if' he had played on grass instead of turf his whole career.
  • Yusei Kikuchi - from disaster to wow to 'what will we get today'.  2.3 fWAR this year, projected at 0.6-0.8 for ROS, then a free agent.  2025/26 projected at 0.9 and 0.4 fWAR (ick). Still, would be nice to get him back this winter if he seems likely to do more like 2024 than his projections say.
  • Yimi García - always a good reliever, having a great year when healthy - 0.8 here, 0.1-0.3 projected ROS then a free agent. 0.1 each of the next 2 years projected. Relievers are such a crap shoot.
  • Trevor Richards - Seemed a nice guy, but never felt safe with him. 0.1 here, 0-0.1 projected ROS then a free agent, 0.6 and 0.4 projected next 2 years
  • Nate Pearson - Always a prospect. Sigh. 0.0 here, -0.3 as a Jay lifetime. 0-0.1 ROS. 2025/26 projected at 0.3 each.
Phew. Lots gone.  But just projected as a group to be worth, at best, 3.5 fWAR this year, with 2025 IKF 0.3, and 2025/26 Pearson 0.6 (given his variability could be negative, could be 5 fWAR, neither would shock me).  So based on projections the Jays lost 4.4 fWAR in these deals, and maybe a draft pick (compensation for losing Kikuchi as a free agent), maybe.

Lets make a chart to review all the new players (so many)...
For Player Age Current Level B/T Prime Pos Sec Pos Slash line
2024
Draft/
IFA
FG Score MLB Jays Notes
Pearson Yohendrick Pinango 22 AA L/L LF RF/CF 261/364/433 IFA 2018 35+ 26 $400k bonus
Pearson Josh Rivera 23 AA R/R SS 3B/2B 171/277/259 22nd 2019 35+ 30
Garcia Jacob Sharp 22 A+ R/R C RF/LF 259/346/460  17th 2023 -- --
Garcia Jonatan Clase 22 AAA S/R CF LF/RF 268/366/467 IFA 2018 40 7 $35k bonus, 213-45 SB-CS career
Richards Jay Harry 21 A+ L/R 2B SS/3B/OF 211/302/353 6th 2023 -- --
Kikuchi Will Wagner 25 AAA L/R 2B 3B/1B/
SS
320/436/456 18th 2021 35+ 21
Kikuchi Joey Loperfido 25 ML L/R CF 1B/2B/
LF/RF
272/365/568  7th 2021 45 -- 84 OPS+ ML
Kikuchi Jake Bloss 23 AAA R/R SP -- 1.64 ERA AAA 3rd 2023 50 3 60 ERA+ ML
IKF Charles McAdoo 22 AA R/R 2B 3B/RF/
LF/1B
306/388/522 13th 2023 -- 13
Turner RJ Schreck 23 AA L/R LF RF/CF 254/394/448 9th 2023 -- 29
Jansen Gilberto Batista 19 Rk R/R SP -- 3.92 ERA IFA 2022 -- -- $10k bonus
Jansen Cutter Coffey 20 A+ R/R 3B SS/2B 234/317/448 2nd 2022 40 28
Jansen Eddinson Paulino 21 AA L/R SS 3B/2B/CF 263/349/391 IFA 2018 40 20 $205k bonus
Kiermaier Ryan Yarbrough 32 ML R/L RP SP 106 ERA+ 4th 2014 NA NA free agent post 2024

The Jays pre-2024 had 31 35+ prospects, just 2 50+ guys (Tiedemann & Orelvis Martinez).  Now they have another 50 in Bloss, plus 7 more 35+ guys totaling 39 35+'s from the pre-2024 evaluations. Obviously some guys will have climbed up and others down while some will graduate off it (Loperfido obviously, Bloss might too, while longer time Jays Barger & Jimenez will graduate also, while others are gone like Yosver Zulueta).

Not a full analysis but a quick and dirty look as a summary of what happened.  Overall I like it. Just need any one of these guys to develop into something half decent for it to be a net positive for the club, and quite frankly Pearson is the only one who could make any of this look bad - if by some miracle he becomes what we've always dreamed he'd become, just in time to become a free agent.  

Just for a laugh - what did the guys we lost cost the Jays originally?  Free Agents: Turner, IKF, Kikuchi, Kiermaier, Garcia.  Richards was a trade (for Rowdy Tellez, we also got Bowden Francis in that deal).  Pearson was a 1st round pick (#28 - Brendon Little picked just before him).  Jansen was a 16th round pick in 2013.  So for Rowdy Tellez, a late 1st round pick, and a 16th round pick (none of the free agents cost the Jays a draft pick) I'd say that is a decent return.  Shows the value of doing decently in free agency. Atkins has done well in free agency overall (both value ones and expensive), now if the Jays could just develop guys a bit better I'd be a lot happier as would we all.
Trade Deadline Reflections | 6 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
jerjapan - Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#451073) #
Nice write-up John. 

I was always on the high end with IKF, thinking him the sort of player with more value to a team like Toronto trying to mix and match with a roster of either legit starters or versatile players.  And then they signed Vogelbach, sigh.  like for every super versatile guy we add, we can add a platoon DH or something? 

hope we don't make that mistake again, since the 'lottery ticket' part of the deadline return is almost entirely compromised of mix and match IFs.

IKF also seemed like an interesting guy.  I found the 'rush to judge' the signing a bit groupthink-y, so I'm happiest on the trajectory of that signing to trade out of all of them.  We got a strong half season out of him, and a top 30 prospect with helium back.  tidy bit of business. 

Kikuchi is another.  I like and related to Kikuchi as much as any Jay, so if he resigns with us, I'd be stoked, same as with Jano.  there is clear need and rapport with the player.  and that sort of move would certainly be some positive cred for a FO that needs some PR wins.  Like, the players mean it when the talk up the first class org thing. 

Resigning guys dealt at the deadline feels very un-Jays, but I'd love to see the FO pursue them both. 

As for Pearson, I don't even consider it a loss if the guy takes off for Chicago.  Moving on in his case feels like the right thing for both the player and the org.  Good luck to all parties!

For a deal that felt pretty 'meh' at the time, I like the outcomes of theTellez trade.  Rowdy got some run, good on the guy, who'd had a tough go as a Jay.  Francis has produced moments and is, at least, solid depth, and Richards ended up soaking up valuable innings for us in a variety of roles.  I'll miss that silver-haired weirdo. 



pooks137 - Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#451075) #
A 33 y/o flamethrowing, TJ-recovered Anthony Gose just got recalled to the Guardians bullpen.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#451076) #
Great to hear Gose is back!  I love guys like him who start out as one thing then become another. From a top prospect CF (speed demon/defensive wiz) to a LH reliever.  Hopefully it goes well for him.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#451078) #
It's amazing because Bauxite Alex Obal predicted Gose's transition to the mound years before it happened. 
metafour - Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#451083) #
It's amazing because Bauxite Alex Obal predicted Gose's transition to the mound years before it happened.

That's not really a crazy prediction, considering that most teams considered Gose to be a better pitching prospect out of HS (he was already hitting 97mph as a LHP). He just refused to pitch, hence him being drafted and signed by a team that would let him come up as a CF. Once it became obvious that he wouldn't hit it seemed pretty inevitable that someone would try him as a pitcher.

"Nine years ago, there was plenty of interest from major league teams. Scouts phoned Bellflower High all the time, asking when the 17-year-old kid with a 97 mph fastball would be on the mound. Gose had a 0.63 ERA as a high school senior, allowing just 22 hits in 71 innings while striking out 124 and walking just 21. When Baseball America previewed the 2008 draft, the magazine listed Gose as a pitcher, declaring he had "perhaps the strongest left arm of any Southern California high school pitching prospect since Bill Bordley, a first-round pick in the mid-1970s." There was only one problem. Gose didn't want to be drafted as a pitcher. The day scouts from the Philadelphia Phillies arrived to watch Gose in a workout, he told then-Phillies scouting director Marti Wolever: "My coach wants me to pitch, but I don't want to pitch." His coach was Keith Tripp, who believed then and still believes now that Gose's best chance at big league success would be on the mound. "I thought he was going to be a pitcher," Tripp said. "But he told me, 'I'm only pitching because you want me to pitch. I like playing outfield. I want to play every day.'"
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#451085) #
Thanks, metafour. I missed the backstory.
Trade Deadline Reflections | 6 comments | Create New Account
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