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Phil Clarke hit a three run home run in the ninth inning to help Buffalo win. New Hampshire won with good hitting and pitching. Jacob Sharp drove in five runs for Vancouver but they lost in extra innings. Dunedin had a nice win.

Buffalo 5 Worcester 3

New Hampshire 7 Binghamton 3

Tri-City 6 Vancouver 5 - 10 innings

Dunedin 4 Daytona 1


Three Stars

Third Star - Will Wagner

Second Star - Jacob Sharp

First Star - Phil Clarke


Boxes


NOTES


Trenton Wallace struggled in his first AA start. Six hits, three walks and a hit batter made it ten baserunners in 3.2 innings. He was charged with three runs. Beau Sulser followed and kept the Bisons in the game, and got the win, by throwing 5.1 shutout innings.


Will Wagner hit his first home run as a Jay in the sixth inning, a solo shot. Wagner was on base four times, two hits and two walks. The Bisons trailed by one headed to the ninth. Rafael Lantigua walked then Joey Votto made his first appearance as a Bison. He singled and Phil Clarke then pinch hit and hit a three run home run.


Will Wagner played primarily second base and first base in the Houston organization. While Wagner is a good hitter the knock on him is that he is not a good fielder. The Jays are gathering several players who can play second base perhaps adequately. Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz and now Will Wagner. Is it one too many?


Lazaro Estrada was outstanding for New Hampshire, five innings, one hit, nine strikeouts. He was overshadowed by the Binghamton starter, Brandon Sproat who struck out 13 in five innings. He struck out the last eleven hitters he faced.


NH scored four runs in the sixth. Five walks helped, Alex De Jesus doubled for the only hit in the inning. They added three more in the ninth. Andres Sosa hit his fourth home run while De Jesus and RJ Schreck had RBI doubles. NH had nine hits, Sosa, De Jesus and Schreck had two each.


Newly arrived Jacob Sharp was the star of the show. He drove in all five C's runs. He singled in a run, walked with the bases loaded and hit a three run home run. He was also hit by a pitch. He had two of the six Vancouver hits.


Kendry Rojas struck out nine in six innings. He gave up five hits, one a home run and another was a triple that scored. Two runs in sox innings. Tri-City used two ground balls to score their run in the tenth, Vancouver were unable to match that.


Fernando Perez started and was pulled after 3.1 innings. This is the second straight start where he was removed early. I would guess that the Jays are working on his innings. Perez threw 43 innings in 2022 and 49 last season. He is up to 81 now. With five weeks left he is on pace to throw roughly another 15 innings which would get him to 96, close to double last years total.


In his 3.1 innings Perez gave up a solo home run, one of the two hits off him.


Aaron Parker hit his first pro home run in the fourth inning. Braden Barry later in that inning singled in Edward Duran. Barry had two hits and Bryce Arnold had three, a single, a double and a triple. Both Barry and Arnold are hitting less than .200 even after their multi hit games.


Phil Finds a Way | 30 comments | Create New Account
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Ducey - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#450937) #
Will the Jays be able afford to promote Votto to the majors?
Mike Green - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#450941) #
The Jays are gathering several players who can play second base perhaps adequately. Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz and now Will Wagner. Is it one too many?

That depends.  Wagner has not hit as well at triple A as either Schneider or Horwitz did at the same age, and offence is his strong point.  Schneider has been a little above average at second base, according to all the metrics, and that accords with my observations.  Notwithstanding all the angst about him, he has hit (120 wRC+ with a career .300 BABIP).  Horwitz is a very good defensive first baseman, and can hit.  The questions, to my mind, are whether some kind of accommodation can be found between Horwitz and Guerrero Jr.  with the 1B and DH slots, and whether Wagner has enough overall O to be a left-fielder/leadoff hitter.  He had a 122 wRC+ at triple A this year, which wouldn't usually translate to an above-average number at the major league level for a 26 year old. 

Parenthetically, neither Loperfido nor Wagner have anything like the hitting credentials of Horwitz or Schneider for a 25 year old prospect.  I rush to add that a 25 year old prospect in 2023 or 2024 is probably a better bet than he might have been in 2018 because there was for many of them a lost year of development. 
scottt - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#450943) #
The Jays need a real clean up hitter. Where can he play?
Left field? DH? Third base?
I think that's the real question.
Jimenez is out of options and so is Clement.
They can drop Lukes who is 30.
Wagner doesn't have to be on the 40 roster this year.
It will be interested to see what the lineup looks like with Bo back in it.
I hope they keep the R-L bats in the lineup.
Springer
Loperfido/Horwitz
Guerrero

That would put Bichette at 5th and Varsho no higher than 6th.
Loperfido could start as the 4th outfielder next year.
Varsh/Kirk/Clement/Scheider are decent bats in the bottom of the lineup.

Glevin - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#450944) #
System is so much more interesting to follow now. Pre draft and deadline, there were like 2 prospects following at all.
SK in NJ - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#450946) #
Not sure if it would work but I think the most logical thing to do based on the current roster is to have Vlad at 3B and Horwitz at 1B heading into next season. That would essentially solve one of the team’s off season holes (3B) without hurting any other position as Horwitz should be a better defensive 1B than Vlad, and you can get by at 2B with some variation of Schneider/Wagner/Orelvis/Jimenez. Vlad in a FA year playing the position he’s wanted to play all along is a risk I’d be willing to take. I don’t think motivation would be an issue.
bpoz - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#450949) #
The scouting reports on prospects is wrong in some cases. Charles McAdoo for example 50 hit & power, 40 run, .310Avg, 14Hr and 17SB is better than the report IMO. He moved to AA in his 1st full season. He is 2 years younger than Roden. But Roden has a better bb/k ratio. So competition exists and they may both make it to the majors.
Nigel - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#450950) #
I hope that Wagner gets a look but I don’t actually think that he’s really in the mix. While his raw numbers look good, league and park adjusted they are only so so. Both he and Loperfido look pretty flawed to me but the system has so few LH OF prospects that this at least gives them a couple of lottery tickets.
bpoz - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#450951) #
Good call Gerry. F Perez 3.1IP 46 pitches. So on an innings limit.
metafour - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#450952) #
That depends. Wagner has not hit as well at triple A as either Schneider or Horwitz did at the same age, and offence is his strong point.

Schneider hit "better" than Wagner in AAA because he slugs like Aaron Judge against AAA pitchers. But there is nothing in his profile to suggest that he is in fact an elite power hitter (his exit velocities are average if not slightly below average), which means that his AAA power is misleading in the sense that it isn't likely to translate long term to the MLB level (you are already seeing that this season wherein his SLG is normalizing back down to expected levels). He had an absurd .603 SLG in his short MLB sample last season when he went on that tear, but his xSLG was actually dramatically lower at .459. This season he is slugging .379 with an xSLG of .387, so his profile is normalized this year to its expected results.

Then there is the elephant in the room which is his strikeout/whiff rate. He is striking out at a ~29% rate at the MLB level with well below average whiff rates. This is concerning because again, he isn't a natural masher who hits rockets. He is a hitter who is entirely barrel dependent (barreling the ball is his best skill).

Wagner on the other hand has elite contact rates. He has a nutty 93.9% zone-contact rate this season with an equally silly 5.4% swinging strike rate. He doesn't strike out a lot and he walks a ton. His max EV is below average, but his average EV is actually solid. He doesn't hit for a ton of power because he lacks launch angle. Even though his wRC+ is lower, it isn't hard to imagine that he could be a better MLB hitter than Schneider with some tweaks to his swing to have him start elevating the ball more. wRC+ is a fine stat, but it doesn't give 100% translation to MLB outcome because it lacks nuance for things like batting and skill profiles which may not translate well against MLB pitching. There are always hitters who look like gods against AAA pitching but are exposed at the MLB level.

Mike Green - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#450953) #
Nope, metafour.

There are three parts to power. Exit velocity, launch angle distribution and ability to pull the ball in the air. Isaac Paredes is an example of a player somewhat like Schneider, and there have been any number of examples through major league history.

The barrel incorporates the first two and Schneider has always done very well at barreling up.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#450955) #
Schneider has had issues with pitch recognition over the last few months. This is not his career pattern, either in the majors or minors.

I don't know what it is about Schneider that has attracted skeptics from the beginning. His defence at second base was considered marginally playable at best. That's not remotely close to being true.

Anyways, I hope he hits a few homers today and gets the weight off his shoulders.
metafour - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#450957) #
Sure, but Paredes makes that profile work because he has elite contact rates. He can maximize his below average "raw" power by consistently making a ton of contact, which increases the number of potential cases where he is hitting the ball with optimal launch angle and pull rates.

Schneider has a similar approach, but he is below average from a contact perspective. Which makes him highly susceptible to ruts (which he is currently in) wherein he simply isn't making enough contact and is striking out a ton. And he doesn't have the raw power to overcome those ruts. He doesn't make enough contact to be Paredes.

Paredes: career 90% Z-Contact rate
Schneider: career 78% Z-Contact rate

Schneider's 2023 hot-streak was fueled by an obviously unsustainable 21% HR/FB rate. That has been more than cut in half this season at 9.9%.

Schneider has legitimate risk of being a guy who ends up just being a low BA, high strikeout, OK power, high walks hitter. So basically "league average" which is what his prospect writeup would have been. Guys like Keith Law were calling this last season even after his 30 game sample where he looked like Barry Bonds.
Nigel - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#450958) #
His infield defense in Vancouver was unplayable so that rep wasn’t made up - just out of date. He gets full marks for obvious improvements since. I’ve been a believer in Schneider’s bat but the key issue is the amount of power. Today, his offensive profile looks remarkably similar to Varsho and that isn’t a compliment. If he’s a league average (ish) bat then he’s probably slightly less useful than Clement.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#450960) #
No one thought he was Barry Bonds. His BABIP was sky-high last year, and that was going to come down. It has whip-sawed to below average and his career BABIP is entirely reasonable.

He will strike out, but his Z- contact rate is a bit deceptive. He will take strikes that he can't drive with less than 2 strikes more than most. He can get to almost any pitch with 2 strikes. That PA with Rodon was a good example. It ended in a K, but Rodon didn't make a single mistake in the zone among his 9 pitches. If Schneider sticks with that approach, he'll be fine. Chasing, he won't.

uglyone - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#450961) #
Wagner's profile converts very easily to useful mlb bat with very little risk. But not a ton of upside especially if he doesn't have a defensive home.

But he should be up imo. No use keeping him in AAA and a guy like de los santos really has no business being in the bigs.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#450963) #
Varsho's control of the strike zone is far behind Schneider's.

I wasn't thinking of you, Nigel. Keith Law and many others said that he did not have a position. It simply isn't true. He's not Bill Mazeroski out there, but by far the club's best option. There's a halfway position between him not being Rogers Hornsby as he appeared in 2023 and him being the average player at second base he has appeared to be in 2024.

I'm enjoying the new talent in the org and might even go to another game if they find themselves a new Manager.
Nigel - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#450964) #
Mike I didn’t take it as directed at me - just that there was historically a basis for that view. I agree that Schneider has better strike zone control than Varsho but, right now, that just lets him be a league average (ish) hitter rather than the 85-90 wRC+ guy that Varsho is.
mendocino - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#450971) #
Gerry has posted most of these

Aug
08/03/24 New Hampshire Fisher Cats released SS Glenn Santiago.
08/03/24 New Hampshire Fisher Cats released RHP Juan Nunez.
08/03/24 Vancouver Canadians released 2B Jeffrey Wehler.
08/03/24 Vancouver Canadians released LHP Naswell Paulino.
08/03/24 Vancouver Canadians released RHP Rafael Ohashi.
08/03/24 Vancouver Canadians released SS Estiven Machado.
08/02/24 Buffalo Bisons released C Kekai Rios.
08/02/24 Buffalo Bisons released RHP Mike Mayers.
08/02/24 Buffalo Bisons released 3B Miguel Hiraldo.
08/02/24 Dunedin Blue Jays released RHP Jorge Bautista.
08/02/24 Dunedin Blue Jays released RHP Jordan Powell.
08/01/24 FCL Blue Jays released 2B Adrian Meza.
08/01/24 FCL Blue Jays released RHP Raudy Gomez.
08/01/24 FCL Blue Jays released C Carlos Vasquez.
July
07/30/24 Vancouver Canadians released OF Dylan Rock.
07/30/24 Vancouver Canadians released 2B Jean Arnaez.
07/29/24 Dunedin Blue Jays released C Luis Gomez.
07/29/24 Dunedin Blue Jays released OF Robert Robertis.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released RHP Carlos Meza.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released RHP Jorge Guerra.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released IF Gregori Cano.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released RHP Felipe Bello.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released C Jonathan Peguero.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released OF Daniel Perez.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released C Faruk De La Cruz.
07/25/24 FCL Blue Jays released SS Aneudi Escanio.
07/19/24 C Zach Britton retired.
bpoz - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#450972) #
Thanks mendocino. Wow!! That is a lot.

Gerry - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#450973) #
If we leave out the FCL thats 15 releases. The Jays just added 13 prospects through trade and several draftees are being added to teams. One in, one out.

The teams now have a 165 player limit on their total minor league count.
pooks137 - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#450974) #
Miguel Hiraldo seems like a significant cut. His name used to show up on prospect lists alongside Leo Jimenez.

Estiven Machado at one point also had some helium.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#450977) #
The Blue Jays have wiped out a significant number of their Latin American prospects. They released about half out their FCL team since their season ended. The Jays inability to draft/develop gets a lot of attention but their inability to develop international prospects is also very worrisome. And they often treat them as nothing more than roster fillers for the college players they sign.
Glevin - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#450978) #
Wagner is 7/11 with a HR and 2 2B and 3 BB. Jays system right now has a lot of guys hitting and a lot of guys hitting off of them. Hopefully, this is because their drafted and traded pitchers haven't pitched yet. Dunedin top-3 in order of Pinto, Nimmala, and Parker all interesting in their own ways.
bpoz - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#450980) #
Machado is still very young for Vancouver. Still 21 and so was 20 last year. We know that his power will develop last. He is also 5'9". He was promoted very fast. Last year the ABs went to Kacevich and others not Machado.

Since most prospects fail (80%) we never lose anything in releases or rule 5.
Someone will give him another 3-5 years of development. This will be hidden somehow.

Dylan Rock will be 26 Aug 21. Also released.

Most other teams have the same issue I imagine.
metafour - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#450981) #
Arjun Nimmala has homered again and is 2 for 3 with a BB tonight. His metamorphosis since getting sent back to the training complex has been absurd. He is on an absolute tear and is showing elite power for an 18 year old.
uglyone - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#450983) #
BA ranking Nimmala 5th in this mediocre system is absurd tbh.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#450985) #
Law recently ranked Nimmala as the #55 prospect in baseball — and the only Blue Jays prospect on his midseason top 60. In other words, for Law, Nimmala is the top prospect in the organization.
DiscoStu - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#450987) #
By my count, Will Robertson has 5 home runs in his last 8 games (one being an inside the park homer). I seem to recall that he came on strong in the last part of the 2023 season.
Kelekin - Saturday, August 03 2024 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#450989) #
With Ohashi being released...has anyone checked to see if Super Bluto is okay?
GabrielSyme - Sunday, August 04 2024 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#450990) #
Well, he's still striking out over 30% of the time; he's just making up for it with great power numbers.
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