"There could be carnage."

I dont think so. The Jays wont beat them that badly.

Plausible Best Possible Lineups

Using This Year's Stats Only:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 178pa, .365obp, 122wrc+, 4.0war650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 472pa, .383obp, 155wrc+, 4.0war650
* 3. RF Springer 421pa, .312obp, 99wrc+, 2.0war650
* 4. DH Schneider 335pa, .310obp, 97wrc+, 1.4war650
* 5. 3B Clement 248pa, .285obp, 95wrc+, 2.4war650
* 6. CF Varsho 372pa, .280obp, 91wrc+, 3.8war650
* 7. LF Loperfido 123pa, .295obp, 84wrc+, 1.6war650
* 8. C Kirk 213pa, .305obp, 78wrc+, 3.7war650
* 9. SS Bichette 331pa, .275obp, 69wrc+, 0.4war650

* X. IF Jimenez 65pa, .292obp, 66wrc+, -1.0war650
* X. UT Barger 80pa, .228obp, 55wrc+, -2.4war650
* X. OF Berroa 21pa, .286obp, 55wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. C Serven 23pa, .174obp, -23wrc+, -8.5war650

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, -21.7war650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, .233obp, 32wrc+, -1.5war650
* X. IF DeLosSantos 1pa, .000obp, -100wrc+, 0.0war650

* (X. IF Falefa 281pa, .338obp, 116wrc+, 4.6war650)
* (X. PH Turner 359pa, .348obp, 109wrc+, 0.5war650)
* (X. C Jansen 236pa, .314obp, 97wrc+, 1.9war650)
* (X. UT Biggio 206pa, .320obp, 90wrc+, 1.3war650)
* (X. PH Vogelbach 79pa, .278obp, 69wrc+, -2.5war650)
* (X. OF Kiermaier 217pa, .236obp, 53wrc+, 0.9war650)



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 212pa, .358obp, 119wrc+, 3.7war650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 695pa, .371obp, 143wrc+, 3.1war650
* 3. DH Schneider 476pa, .338obp, 121wrc+, 3.7war650
* 4. RF Springer 652pa, .327obp, 108wrc+, 2.5war650
* 5. 3B Clement 290pa, .295obp, 100wrc+, 2.9war650
* 6. CF Varsho 550pa, .288obp, 97wrc+, 3.9war650
* 7. C Kirk 367pa, .313obp, 84wrc+, 4.0war650
* 8. LF Loperfido 123pa, .295obp, 84wrc+, 1.6war650
* 9. SS Bichette 461pa, .280obp, 75wrc+, 0.7war650

* X. IF Jimenez 65pa, .292obp, 66wrc+, -1.0war650
* X. UT Barger 80pa, .228obp, 55wrc+, -2.4war650
* X. OF Berroa 21pa, .285obp, 55wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. C Serven 23pa, .174obp, -23wrc+, -8.5war650

* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, -21.7war650
* X. PH Votto 112pa, .313obp, 85wrc+, -1.2war650
* X. OF Lukes 6pa, .333obp, 65wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. OF Clase 43pa, .233obp, 32wrc+, -1.5war650
* X. IF DeLosSantos 1pa, .000obp, -100wrc+, 0.0war650

* (X. C Jansen 298pa, .332obp, 106wtc+, 2.8war650)
* (X. PH Vogelbach 173pa, .324obp, 105wrc+, 0.0war650)
* (X. PH Turner 544pa, .338obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war650)
* (X. UT Biggio 371pa, .351obp, 102wrc+, 2.1war650)
* (X. IF Falefa 399pa, .318obp, 98wrc+, 2.9war650)
* (X. OF Kiermaier 337pa, .256obp, 67wrc+, 1.7war650)




Using Fangraphs Depth Chart Combined Projections:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 212pa, .355obp, 115wrc+, 3.8war650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 220pa, .354obp, 145wrc+, 3.8war650
* 3. SS Bichette 146pa, .329obp, 113wrc+, 3.6war650
* 4. RF Springer 207pa, .324obp, 112wrc+, 2.8war650
* 5. C Kirk 138pa, .343obp, 112wrc+, 5.2war650
* 6. LF Schneider 157pa, .327obp, 110wrc+, 2.5war650
* 7. DH Wagner 52pa, .339obp, 104wrc+, 2.5war650
* 8. CF Varsho 207pa, .296obp, 103wrc+, 3.5war650
* 9. 3B Clement 137pa, .305obp, 98wrc+, 2.4war650

* X. UT Barger 142pa, .306obp, 98wrc+, 1.4war650
* X. IF Jimenez 65pa, .318obp, 90wrc+, 2.0war650
* X. OF Loferpido 153pa, .295obp, 89wrc+, 0.4war650
* X. C Serven 68pa, .248obp, 55wrc+, 0.0war650

* X. IF Martinez 60pa, .285obp, 93wrc+, 2.2war650
* X. PH Votto 54pa, .305obp, 92wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. OF Clase 22pa, .282obp, 79wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. OF Berroa 52pa, .288obp, 76wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. IF DeLosSantos 25pa, .276obp, 72wrc+, 0.0war650
* X. C Raposo 6pa, .265obp, 68wrc+, 0.0war650

* (X. C Jansen 128pa, .328obp, 111wrc+, 3.6war650)
* (X. PH Vogelbach 23pa, .335obp, 110wrc+, 0.0war650)
* (X. PH Turner 184pa, .328obp, 108wrc+, 1.1war650)
* (X. UT Biggio 48pa, .321obp, 96wrc+, 1.4war650)
* (X. IF Falefa 84pa, .315obp, 90wrc+, 2.3war650)
* (X. OF Kiermaier 64pa, .284obp, 82wrc+, 3.0war650)

The Jays have never had the #1 pick in the draft - they should go for it with gusto.

Since the first round draft order is now a lottery, does that mean more rum for Jobu?

The Jays should definitely not be tanking in an attempt to earn a 5% better shot at the #1 pick. Winning with your youth will be rewarded in the long run.

It's not something that fans need to worry about anyway. Baseball is basically an individual sport and the players are playing for future salaries. The only way Schneider could "go for it with gusto" would be to sit Guerrero/Varsho and not use Gausman, Bassitt, and Berrios, which obviously would never happen. Which one of his AAAA players makes the lineup on a given night won't make much of a difference. That being said, my personal belief is that Barger should play most of the time; he clearly has the loudest tools of the bunch. He sits tonight vs. an RHP, which is a bit strange.

Generally agree with 92-93. Barger should be playing against all righties for sure. I like Clement and think he's a useful piece but I know what he is, so playing him doesn't tell me anything for 2025.

I did see some stat about Berrios throwing more innings than any other starter over the last x years so I'd also be fine with skipping his start sometimes or going to six man rotation. I think the starters not getting hurt is great obviously, but also creates more mileage on their arms.

Apparently Gerrit Cole has recovered from "general body soreness" and will start on Sunday.

hopefully Cole can avoid throwing the ball at Vlad's hands. that'd be ideal.

It's actually the bullpen who will affect the outcome most, not sitting or starting Schneider or Barger.
The next two series are against the Yankees and the Orioles.
I don't expect more than 2 wins.

Baltimore and NYY are tied at the top.
Who wins the division gets to skip the wild card games.
That's huge because the aces will be rested for the semi-finals.

The Royals and the Twins currently have the other 2 wild cards.
Boston trails by 2.
Seattle by 3.5 but they are closer to winning their division.
Tampa is out by 4.5 games, so could still make it.
The Jays have slayed the Rangers who are just 2 games ahead of Toronto now.
Detroit is close behind.
LAA is behind by 3 games.

Winning with the youth?
It's more about finding out who makes the team next year.
Barger has options and will probably only cover when Springer is the DH.
Clement will play at third most day, but he's not that young.
Is he realistically an option to play 3B every day?
Loperfido is the guy to watch for now.
Jimenez should play SS every day until Bichette comes back, then he's better served in AAA.

I'm not crazy about Horwitz in the clean up spot.
In my book, he's already made the team next year.

I ask this seriously - do we really know what Clement is? I know he’s 29 so he’s no prospect. He looks like he can provide 300 ABs at a sort of league average level (definitely useful at league minimum salary). But could he provide 600 ABs at a league average level?

Minor point, Ernie is 28.

I have no idea, Nigel. He has very good contact ability and medium range pop. If he developed even a little more discretion about swinging, he could become even better. That sometimes happens in the 30s. Not too many players are better at 35 than at 25, but Clement could reasonably be one of them. In some senses, he is a prospect, despite his age.

not sure clement can keep up league average vRHP but he might stay close enough that if he can continue being well above average vLHP then yeah he could keep up league avg overall.

I wonder what the mathematics are of routinely walking Judge with a runner on 2nd and one out. Relatively speaking, he's got a pitcher batting behind him and you don't have the worries about turning the lineup over.

Thanks Gerry. Clement definitely suffers from Frank Catalanotto disease and would benefit from the odd BB here or there. I guess my point was I wouldn’t object to using him as much as possible the rest of the way to find out.

I’d like it on record that I started this Clement discussion before he decided to single handedly demolish Stroman lol.

Clement definitely suffers from Frank Catalanotto disease and would benefit from the odd BB here or there.

Frankie the Cat didn't walk very often, but it was literally about twice as often as Clement. Ernie walks less often than Alfredo Griffin, which... there are no words!

Guerrero Jr 2024 wRC+ by month:

April 99 (warm)
May 165 (hot)
June 171 (hotter)
July 200 (climate emergency)

Yeah but you don’t walk off the island! What island Frankie and Ernie were/are trying to get off is a mystery.

Turtle Island.

Climate emergency, I like that.

I’m generally agnostic to the “stuff” of marginal relievers. But, Little’s stuff is hard to ignore. Between he and Cabrera they seem to have the LH relievers role in their sights.

First look at Loperfido and don't love his defense. He doesn't loomk overly instinctive and somewhat tentative but maybe I've just been spoiled by Varsho...

There were a couple of hits near Loperfido that made me think to myself, "Varsho makes that play." I read it as timidity, which might be related to being traded!

Someone said Ernie dont walk?

Varsho isn’t a fair defensive comp for anyone! Of course, it’s a low offensive bar as well.

Yeah, I think we will all think all the LF suck because we've been too acclimatized to Varsho in LF being "normal" or only "good" when it has actually been "incredible".

"Brain ball" sounds like small ball. I imagine they bunted a lot, used hit-and-runs, etc.

Moneyball is something else entirely.

Even today, guys who hit for power but have a low average are not appreciated by the Japanese public.
They like guys who hit for average and run aggressively.

Per MLBTR, journeyman pitcher (and one-time Jay) Doug Creek has passed at 55. F$ck cancer (pancreatic in his case).

Guerrero, July: 1.113 OPS
Judge, season: 1.143 OPS

Before today, the age 32 leader in MLB history in OPS+ was Babe Ruth, 1927 at 225. Aaron Judge, 2024 was second at 215.
It's just one thing, but still.

Ross Atkins spoke about Vlad and Bo extensions prior to the trade deadline saying:

“It would take a lot on both side for that to happen in this next off-season. And certainly, if it doesn’t then we could obviously have an opportunity to do so in free agency or just before free…

— Blue Jays Today (@TodayJays) August 3, 2024

I like Boone’s benching of Torres last game.

That was a crazy good AB by Horwitz.

It was. Complete control of the strike zone against a tough lefty.

Schneider is a weird guy. Looks like Ted Williams for a month and the looks like John Henry Williams for two months. I have no idea who he is but my best guess is around a 100 WRC+ utility guy with a wide range of outcomes. He's a mess right now though.

I didn’t realize that Schneider was as proficient at walking as he is around 11%, which is just a tick behind a diminished Cavan Biggio.

That certainly makes Schneider's cold streaks a little easier to tolerate, similar to Springer's awful start to the year.

I can't recall the last time I saw a Blue Jay Hitter as hot as VG Jr right now. Maybe Schneider when he first came up?

I like Boone’s benching of Torres last game.

One does wonder why Alex Verdugo and Josh Donaldson were spared.

Well, there is the Verdogo Gold Chain Rule: 1 gold chain per game.

"It's kind of been hard, man. Because usually  I'm used to wearing like three or four."

Kikuchi struck out 8 Rays in a row today to tie the Astros franchise record.
Not bad.

"I can't recall the last time I saw a Blue Jay Hitter as hot as VG Jr right now. Maybe Schneider when he first came up?"

Jose Bautista

I can't recall the last time I saw a Blue Jay Hitter as hot as VG Jr right now.

This July, Guerrero hit .358/.407/.705 with 8 HRs, it's an OPS of 1.113, which means it's not quite as hot as his own .371/.465/.753 with 10 HRs, OPS of 1.218 in June 2021. There have been five better months than that in Jays history: Carlos Delgado (July 2000, .386/.538/.773), Jose Bautista (Apr 2011, .366/.532/.780), Otto Velez (May 1980, .414/.514/.810), Edwin Encarnacion (Aug 2015, .407/.460/.919), and topping the list, in the very first month of the team's existence - Otto Velez in April 1977: .442/.531/.865, which remains hard to beat.

topping the list... Otto Velez in April 1977

Bautista is forgiven for not remembering the Otto Velez streaks. He wasn't even born yet! Ugh. As an aside, what else could his nickname have been other than Otto the Swatto?

With the possibility of a VGJ extension in the spotlight, it’s interesting to reflect on the 5/$65m extension the Blue Jays gave Bautista in 2011. At the time some people thought it was too risky, but it worked out tremendously well for Toronto.

What would Atkins and Shapiro have done had they been the GM and president? Who knows. I’m not sure they would have extended Bautista, as he was an unusual player — a very late bloomer. Atkins and Shapiro might have found the proposition of a five-year big-money extension too risky.

Thanks Magpie. Good memories.

VG Jr. in his last 15 games is .500/.574/1.060 -- quite astounding. And that doesn't include his game today where he went 3 for 4 with a homer and a double.

What would Atkins and Shapiro have done had they been the GM and president?

In some ways they they had a similar case in Marcus Semien in 2021, though with less team control.

The Jays had Semien fall into their lap on a pillow contract after a mediocre follow-up season to a MVP runner-up year. This after a fairly pedestrian first four seasons in the league.

Semien repeated the MVP caliber year at age 30 and the Jays missed the postseason on the final day.

The Jays opted against extending or paying market rates for Semien in the end, opting instead to pay top market rates for pitching like Gausman & Bassitt.

From Kikuchi's first Houston start against Tampa (from https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5677686/2024/08/03/yusei-kikuchi-astros-debut/):

Kikuchi finished two strikeouts shy of his career high but generated more whiffs than in any of his previous 144 major-league starts. He shelved one of his most relied-upon pitches while relying on another he rarely used in Toronto, offering the first glimpse of how Houston’s heralded pitching department plans to enhance an already alluring arsenal.

Kikuchi touched 97.2 mph with his four-seam fastball. Twenty of the 26 whiffs he generated arrived against his two secondary pitches: a darting slider he located down in the strike zone and a changeup the Astros are encouraging him to throw more in favor of a fastball that hasn’t fared well all season.

...

Kikuchi did not throw a curveball until the third inning, when his second trip through Tampa Bay’s order began. In Toronto, he threw it 22.9 percent of the time. The two curveballs he threw were his fewest in a start since April.

Be interesting to see if a different coaching staff does get more (or less) out of Kikuchi (or any of our other traded guys). Walker generally had a good reputation of doing well for pitchers, so you wouldn't think there should be much to unlock from departing pitchers, although the last year has not been quite as good an example of Walker quality.

Just heard about the bases empty intentional walk of judge, and I'm shocked a ML manager would do this. I haven't liked Schneider for some time and didn't want him rehired. This is just another data point that he, or whatever team managing is going on is terrible.

In some ways they they had a similar case in Marcus Semien in 2021, though with less team control."

These cases were not remotely similar. I also love how" semien fell in their laps" so they don't even get credit for a great free agent signing, only blame got not signing Semien to a massive contract. Also, signing Gausman was the right move with the horrible pitching they had and he has had 12 WAR in 3 seasons with the Jays. I don't know if Atkins would have tried to extend Bautista and Encarnacion but they also didn't give them disastrous extensions when many on here were clamouring for them. Being conservative and process oriented has its downsides but also its positives.

Those are fair points but I don’t think Semien would have required a massive contract on a multi-year deal when the Blue Jays signed him. They reportedly had discussions with Semien about a four-year contract but one side or the other evidently preferred a more conservative one-year deal.

The front office has given out a five-year extension before (Grichuk). That was the front office’s style at that point — chasing a perceived high floor with some potential upside. The Bautista extension was a big bet by AA that the player’s surge in performance in 2010 at age 29 — 6.5 fWAR when he had yet to post 2 WAR in any previous season — was real (and not PED-induced).

Bautista would have been PED tested extensively, so there would have been no risk there.

Vladdy:
August:
714/.778/1.429

last 15 days:
540/.607/1.120

last 30 days:
396/.448/.802

Verdugo has been quite unimpressive this year so there is no telling if he is simply getting a day off today or is being benched in favour of Grisham. Despite not hitting much, though more than Verdugo, Grisham's glove has made him playable. And it has the advantage of moving Judge out of CF (with Stanton off the IL, there will be fewer DH at-bats for Judge so "rest" has to come in other ways). Interestingly, and understandably, Judge will will be playing LF, a strange position for him, with Soto playing the short Yankee RF, which he has played all season.

Nice that De Los Santos gets a start. Big catch in the first

Don't think De Los Santos will be up for long but I love getting these guys some major league time. He's earned it and it reflects well on you as an organization to recognize the work of veteran minor leaguers.

Vlad might be able to hit, but man the base running...

Takes the bat out of a teammate’s hands.

Kinda thinking John Schneider is over-managing things here. Not great.

Little sucking is on the manager. He has been pitching way too much.

Pretty much Little Pop Cabrera and Greene. Everyone else just warming chairs

How many times will Schneider make the same silly move before he learns his lesson? The tying run is now at second with the bases loaded because he's obsessed with getting a lefty on lefty matchup despite a righty being on deck.

Let your freaking starter pitch with the bases empty and two outs. You're 51-60.

The result worked, in spite of the process. Not impressed whatsoever. Give Yariel a chance to finish the inning with nobody on base in a two run game. Don’t get it at all.

These cases were not remotely similar.

The similarity between Bautista & Semien is the shape of their careers just prior to hitting free agency - a long history of being league average punctuated by a sudden breakout of a single season being a Top 5 player in their league.

Semien "fell into the Jays' lap" in the sense that he was available in his first go around in free agency for nothing more than a 1/18 offer, the equivalent of a QO at the time.

This suggests that the league at the time either didn't believe in or didn't know how to value Semien's new level of performance considering no one offered a competitive multiyear bid to him as a 30 y/o.

For the record, I was against re-signing Semien to a market rate deal after 2021 as I wanted the Jays to maintain financial flexibility for the future.

The Jays however went in a different direction, spending potential Semien money on a Berrios extension and bringing in Gausman.

Yarbrough does add another dimension, and it does change the dynamics a bit of matching up pitchers for a platoon advantage.  That said, I agree it was not wise to do that in the 5th inning with Rodriguez throwing a shutout. 

Bautista and Semiens were 2 totally different circumstances.
Semiens was a career 95 OPS+ shortstop with one good offensive season and his last season had been his worse. The A's didn't bother to give him a QO. Too risky. They paid him 13M for his last year which he had not earned. The 29 other GMs didn't offer him a decent contract, so Atkins swooped in with a pillow contract. Now, Shapiro doesn't like player options, so they did a straight one year contract provided Semiens got to play 2B instead of 3B which was the need for the Jays.

Let's ponder this player option thing.
3 players signed contracts with opt-out last spring, which are the same thing as player options.
None were traded at the deadline even though the clubs who signed these players are not realistically competing this year. That's a huge loss, without even considering that all these players had QO attached and cost prospects to sign.
Bellinger is with the Cubs, 3 years, 80M, .764 OPS at the moment.
Snell with the Giants, 2 years, 62M, 4.29 ERA at the moment.
Chapman, same, 3 years, 54M,  .766 OPS at the moment.

Bautista signed for 65M in February 2011.
Bautista was the American League HR champion with 54 in 2010.
It's worth noting that Bautista had also hit 10 HR in September 2009, so there was a bit more than a year. The elite production was covering the last 7 months played, so he wasn't a bounce back candidate like Semiens. In 2011, Bautista was very happy to sign this contract. Five years later, he felt like he had been underpaid. AA was the only GM who could offer Bautista that contract. Bautista was only making 2.4M at the time and he would have had to stay healthy and productive in 2011 to cash out in free agency. 

Lots of tension in the stadium even before the lightning bolts.
Boone must like to get tossed.

Cabrera tossing balls against the Yankees dugout is a bit funny.
Cabrera is like a raging bull on the mound.
That reminds me of the March game in which he was ejected for shoving Caballero at third base.
He's listed at 6' 2", 180lbs. Not expecting  to see hitters charging the mound either way.

Jays up to 7th pitcher thru 7.1 innings.

Ridiculous.

Five of the top 15 WAR players born this day are: John Olerud, Eric Hinske, Bobby Kielty, John Wasdin and Rick Bosetti.  None of the lesser 46 players born this day played in Toronto. Happy Birthday, old friends and strangers. 

WASH won 2 in a row to move up in the standings with Toronto. The Angels are 2 games back.

Although I have little faith in the Angels going on a hot streak, its possible the Jays could wind up in 25th place.

I won't be rooting for the team to finish as poorly as possible.  I do hope the Manager gives all the young players a shot, and uses his pitching staff in such a way as to maximize the chances that as many of them as possible are healthy and performing at their best in 2025.  If he does this, the young players hit and field surprisingly well, the pitchers respond superbly to a carefully curated workload and they run off a 12 game winning streak, it'll get nothing but cheers from me. 

Only the Tigers and A's have an easier remaining SOS than the Angels, who still have all 6 games left vs the White Sox.

The Nats SOS is only a bit tougher than the Jays, with the Reds the only team close behind in the race to the bottom with a tougher schedule, but not much tougher.

If the Nats and Angels pass us in the standings, that would give Toronto the 3rd best lottery odds, since the new rules prevent the A's and White Sox picking in the top 10.

Still 50 games to go though.

I won't be rooting for the team to finish as poorly as possible.

It's easier to cheer for the team to win again now that all of the roster flotsam is gone (except the very shortstaffed bullpen).

The Jays came within a run and an extra inning of winning a series against a fully staffed Yankees team that is playoff bound.

The flotsam includes Jansen who is 5 for 10 in Boston with 2 walks and 2K, Turner who is hitting .278 in Seattle with 1 HR and 6 RBIs in 4 games, IKF who is 2 for 8--a double and a triple--good for an .875 OPS.

The only real flotsam is Kiermaier who is 0 for 5 with a walk in 2 games.

Vlad is hot, but Horwitz is cold. Clement is hovering around a .700 OPS. Loperfido has a .596 OPS just below Bichette's .597. Berroa is up to .440. Serven is up to .347 and De Los Santos has a .200 OPS.

The went 2-5 on the trip, only winning when they scored 8 runs.

I'm cheering for the young guys to play well, but the team to lose.

Winning meaningless games in 2024 does nothing to advance the franchise. Having a high draft position does.

I guess I would be happy if Bo comes back and kills it, so they can trade him this winter

Off-day questions.  Who is more qualified for the Hall of Fame, David Cone or C.C. Sabathia?  Do you think neither of them, one of them or both of them belong? 

I'm hoping the Jays win games, but also hoping the Angels, Nats and the other teams within close proximity win as well, unless they are playing the Jays.

Chapman has been a huge win for the Giants, scottt. He is 3rd in the NL in WAR at 5.1. And 4.5GB isn't that big a deal with 50 games to go.

I'm not good hall of fame picks. I note they have nearly identical numbers and the same WAR. Cone has 5 world series rings vs CC's one. Maybe that tips the balance?

I'm a small hall guy, so I say neither. But they both played in NY, so they are in.

Ducey, fair comments.  Cone was up for election, got less than 4% of the vote and was 1 and done.  Sabathia is on the ballot for 2025.  I'll bet that he gets more than 4% of the vote, and that's about as far as I am going to take it. 

In his playing days Cone was generally regarded as a prickly guy for the media to deal with (amusing given his current role). Whereas I think that Sabathia was pretty universally liked by the media wherever he went. As a consequence, I think it almost a certainty that Sabathia will get more than 4% in his first year. I think their cases are nearly indistinguishable and not particularly close (but I’m a small Hall guy). If you put a gun to m head and forced me to choose I between the two, I’d say Sabathia as he had a 2-3 year peak around 2007 that was probably better than any peak stretch that Cone put together. But it’s splitting hairs between two not overly compelling cases for me.

4.5 games doesn't seems like much but the last wild card is held by Arizona who is 8 games over .500 while the Giants are 1 game under .500. Also there are 3 teams between the Giants and the Diamondbacks. Also Chapman took a contract with 2 opt outs, that's presumably to opt out and try again without a QO dragging him down. How good does he have to be to do that and leave behind a San Francisco team that didn't reach the playoffs. That seems more likely than the Giants making the playoffs which Fangraphs rates at 12.8%.

Cone is thr better HoF candidate, and it's not even close. But not sure how I feel about Cone's case.

Cavan Biggio DFA'd by the Dodgers.

Don't know if this was mentioned after the Snell no hitter, but here goes.

That was the 18th time a Giants pitcher threw a complete game no hitter of at least 9 innings. That's the 3rd most. Dodgers have the most with 22.

Which team is 2nd with 19? (the answer would not have been my first guess).

Cleveland?

Hint - they're having a rough season.

The last Cleveland no-hitter was Len Barker's perfect game in May 1981. They're the only team that's gone longer than the Blue Jays without one of their pitchers tossing one.

Yep, faked out by one too many Early Wynn stories of the Indians staffs of the 50’s and 60’s.

I’ll say Mike that I think the arguments are reversed. Sabathia has a 30 WAR peak 2006-2010 that Cone can’t touch but Cone was still a damn good pitcher in the tail of his career while CC was having difficulty being league average in the tail of his career. I think you can make an argument for Cone over CC but I think it’s a longevity/big moments argument vs peak. Either way I think it’s clear that Tiant should be in before either and Tiant is my marker for in or out. I loved Tiant and my nostalgic self would love to see him in but I think he deserves to be out.

Stieb had 29.3 WAR 82-85, and 56.4 career.

Personally I think you’ve got some of the preeminent members of the pitchers wing of the Hall of the Very Very Good in Stieb, Tiant, Cone and CC. I don’t think I’m biased in my view that Stieb had the highest consecutive years peak. Tiant may have been the better pitcher on the whole but Stieb had a HOF peak.

"Cavan Biggio DFA'd by the Dodgers."

Never understood the Dodgers interest.

Maybe Braydon Fisher turns into something

one too many Early Wynn stories of the Indians staffs of the 50’s and 60’s.

Well, Bob Feller was one of those guys. Can't blame him too much!

So, based on the rough season hint, I'll guess the Pale Hose (or as Ray Ratto called them, the Proud Colorless Footwear)

Yeah, it's the White Sox second.

Cleveland are 7th with 14, one ahead of the Yankees, who I thought would have more.

And this - Marlins who entered the league in 1993 have 6, the Pirates who've been around since 1882 have 5.

The difference is purely linguistics, Nigel.  I use the terms "peak" and "career" as Bill James did.  If you look at a player's career as a curve, "peak" refers to the highest point and "career" refers to the area under the curve.  The highest point might be 1 year or 2 year, or at the most 3 year performance.  The long stretch of consecutive glory years is, in this construction, described as "prime".  And we know what the entrance music for a pitcher's prime ought to be, right?  Although "speedball" still bruises my eardrums and my brain at the same time. 

Never understood the Dodgers interest.

Agree in part. Seemed odd a player not good enough for a struggling Jays team would have a home for 2 months on a perennially-contending LA club.

I chalk it up to the fact that Biggio does have a base to project from. If you believe you can add either a little more contact or a little more power, suddenly Biggio becomes a valuable multiposition bench bat.

Cleveland must be ecstatic that Mark Shapiro is the President of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Left bat. Change of scenery. Played multiple positions. Cheap.

There are other things that puzzle me far more.
Like, why so many batters chase or fail to check on a 0-2 count when pitchers rarely throw a strike in that count.

I get that hitters like to watch the first pitch fastball over the plate because they want to look at the release point or don't want the AB to end after one pitch. Pitchers don't want to give anything to hit on a 0-2 count yet hitter seem to be sitting fastball.

I think the high failure rates at 2 strikes has to do with being forced to be a generalist rather than a specialist.

I heard the old broadcast booth canard over the weekend that you can sit fastball & try to adjust to the offspeed stuff, but you can't sit offspeed & hope to catch up to the fastball. Doubly so with today's ridiculous velocities.

You also hear Buck talk about pigeonholing your focus early in the count looking for either a pitch type or location.

But then on two strikes the broadcast wisdom is that you suddenly have to "battle", which essentially means to throw away all strategies while trying cover all corners, speeds and spins.