He's 13 for 13 stealing bases, so he *is* doing one thing well.

Name             BQR   BQS
        
Yusei Kikuchi     14    9
Yariel Rodríguez  14    3
Trevor Richards   14    2
Kevin Gausman     10    3
Chris Bassitt      9    5
José Berríos       7    0
Bowden Francis     3    0
Alek Manoah        1    0

Does schneider need to go down but horwitz or jimenez don't? I dunno.

I am old enough to remember Bob as a member of the Buffalo Braves. Charles is, apparently, a distant cousin, looking to soon make his name in the same town a half century later.

Because ERA is his only good metric. He has a 5.16 FIP, career worst BB/9 and K/9. And he was already DFA'd.

Asked whether the Blue Jays ducked under the CBT thereby resetting their tax rate for 2025, Ross Atkins said on a Zoom call with reporters that Jays are now "on the razor’s edge.”

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) July 30, 2024

Blue Jays sought to add a major-league caliber catcher in deadline discussions and had opportunities to do so. Ultimately, preferred the returns they went with

Club still plans to upgrade at the position this winter

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) July 31, 2024

Not OP. It's tricky to evaluate compared to past years since the Jays haven't had a selloff deadline since 2019.

Competitive deadlines are evaluated more so by how current needs are met, cost be damned. They are also fairly or unfairly judged by how the pennant race and playoffs turn out later.

Selloff deadlines are evaluated by who gets moved and how much hype the pieces coming back have attached to them. They then get retconned years later depending on how the lottery tickets work out.

I don't think June draft signings impact the luxury tax calculations for current year.

One of the last CBAs banned major league contracts for high profile picks.

I suppose it could in theory impact global team budgets for extremely cheap teams like Tampa and Oakland that perhaps wouldn't spend their entire draft pools. But it doesn't impact anything according to MLB-wide luxury tax rules.

No. Can't trade guys on waivers anymore for anything.

Only way to shed salary now is to place expensive guys on waivers and hope a team picks up the entire contract for no return.

Similar to what the Angels did last August with Giolito and Grichuk. And what Ricciardi did a long time ago allowing the White Sox to pick up the rest of Rios' multiyear deal for nothing other than cost savings.

While Bichette playing poorly and/or a small number of games over the balance of the season may well hurt his trade value to the team, his FA payday will be contingent on posting more typical numbers in 2025. To that end, he might prioritize healing to prepare for 2025 rather than attempting to salvage his 2024 season.

Would you resign Vlad for a higher AAV than Freeman ($27 million) and for the same years as Harper (13 years)? That would be $351,000,000 for ages 26 - 39 seasons. This is likely the floor moving forward with "Vintage Vlad" back. Would you sign that deal or trade him along with Bo in the off season for a Soto-value return (from Nationals to SD). I don't think they want to reset so ... $400,000,000 contract coming up...

Dalimon; there is no precedent for a player of Vlad's position and prior performance history signing for anywhere near that AAV amount or years.

There are only two 1B in MLB history who have landed 10+ year contracts: Pujols and Votto. Vlad is different because he will be several years younger than both, however he is nowhere near either one in terms of actual performance at the time of signing. Pujols was already a HoF lock with basically 9+ straight seasons of 7-8+ WAR before he signed with the Angels. Votto had 4 or 5 straight seasons wherein he was consistently one of the 3-5 best hitters in all of baseball.

Positional value is everything in baseball, and it drives all contract discussions. Vlad is in between a rock and hard place because he is expecting to be paid like a SS or OF, but he is a 1B/DH who's only value comes from his bat. He is hopelessly negative as both a defender and as a baserunner. Now, as a bat-only player he only has a track record of "elite hitting" in 2 out of his 6 MLB seasons. So not only are you proposing a contract that is completely out of line with how the market values 1B/DH types, but you are also doing so for a player who doesn't even have the track record to warrant $300M+. MLB teams have been suppressing the contract length and AAV for 1B/DH players for 7+ years now. And here is the real kicker: just two years ago Yordan Alvarez, who is a better hitter than Vlad, signed a 6-year $115M extension at age 24/25. This is your ACTUAL MLB comparison for a bat-only player who is a black hole defensively and on the basepaths. Sure, you can argue that Alvarez's camp botched his extension; but there is no reality where Vlad is justified at $350-400M while Alvarez is signed to a $115M contract over 6 years. None.

Another recent example would be Matt Olson and his 8 year, $168M extension at age 28. Yes, Vlad is a "better" hitter than Olson, but what you see with that contract is that Olson had to exchange AAV in order to get more years tacked on. He is signed for 8 years, but his $21M AAV is actually below market for his output.

So this is the impasse that the front office is most likely at: Vlad's actual "value" is likely something like 8 years, ~$225-235M. This takes into account his position, performance history, and the fact that he is not Albert Pujols. Keep in mind that this is still a bullish offer for a player with only 2 years of elite hitting. Nobody is lining up to pay a 1B $300+M because they hit like one of the best hitters in the league for 3/4 of one season, it doesn't work like that. Now Vlad's camp is almost certainly asking for 10+ years, and $300M+. That level of commitment is only worth even discussing if you are certain that he is going to give you ~6+ years of hitting where he is a Top 3-5 hitter in the league. He has to perform at that level because his defense and baserunning are so bad. If you sign him to $300+M and he hits at even a 130-140 wRC+ level, it is going to be one of the worst contracts ever. 130-140 wRC+ hitting is basically Tesocar Hernandez, and he couldn't even get more than 1 year committed to him last offseason. Again, most fans grossly understate the fact that MLB teams do NOT value this player profile anymore. Vlad has more in his bag because he can legitimately hit at a 160+ wRC+ level, but he basically has to do that moving forward to make $300+M even begin to make sense.

Vlad isn't Soto, for about a half dozen different reasons. Its totally irrelevant what Soto will get.

There has actually been DEFLATION on contract length awarded to 1B since Pujols/Votto. This is because teams are getting smarter, not dumber. There is inflation on player AAV, but there is deflation on how long teams are willing to commit that AAV for when it comes to 1B/DH limited players. Again, there have been zero 1B to land 10+ year extensions or FA contracts since Votto's deal in 2014. That is 10 years worth of data. Its not like Vlad is the first 1B in those 10 years who has shown the ability to hit at an elite level. During that period you have seen elite hitters like Paul Goldschmidt sign for 5 years, and then another 5 years after that. Rizzo signed an extension for 7 years for a dirt-cheap $41M. Freeman signed for 8 years at a cheap $135M, and then 6 years for $162M. Freeman's total over those two contracts is right under $300M, but it is over 14 years, so just over $21M AAV.

Correct, Vlad will be offered more than $25M AAV as a free agent. But over how many years? What I am saying is that there is nothing to suggest that anyone is going to give him both free-market AAV AND extreme years at the same time; not for a 1B who bleeds wins on defense and the basepaths. He will likely have to choose one or the other, but he wants both. If he gets $30M AAV, why would that team also give him 10+ years? He doesn't have that value, nor has the market set that type of expected result for his player-type.

I'm sure the Jays are perfectly happy to offer him $30M AAV...over ~7 years.

Yes, but Teo got $23.5 million. And he'll get another contract this offseason with a 20 million+ AAV, I predict. So, if Vlad hits at Teo's level for, say, 8 years of the contract (say 140 OPS+ for a few years, then falling to 130+, with some natural year-to-year variance), that's $188 million. When you factor in inflation over the course of the deal, that adds another $30-40 million.

Of course, not every hitter capable of putting up an OPS like that gets that level of compensation, but many do, particularly if they are in the prime of their careers.

He's not worth $300 million if he's a 130 OPS+ hitter, but it's not going to be close to one of the worst contracts ever. Ian Desmond, Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, the list goes on.....

It’s not irrelevant if Vlad and his team see it as a comp. if that’s a case a Soto deal will be a substantial barrier.

Schneider is likely too tainted at this point in the fanbase's eyes. It's an interesting thought experiment though.

Montoyo was brought in to replace Gibbons during the 2018-2021 rebuild after Gibbons was pushed out after managing the 2015-16 veteran competitive teams.

Montoyo was a Tampa Bay lifer who was originally sold as a player development guy to oversee some very lean years.

Montoyo doesn't get much credit though for developing the core of the 2020-2023 competitive Jays teams. He was also dispatched when the Jays were 46-42 during a year they were supposed to be competing. The narrative was that he was too quiet and nice to win. People wanted him to scream at umpires more, fight for his team, be a redass. He was tossed aside as a caretaker manager, not a winning manager. Though he wasn't even given credit for that.

So the Jays brought in an internal hire, John Schneider. He was sold as a player's manager for his familiarity with Vlad, Bo and Cavan. He had had minor league success.

But his job wasn't to develop, it was to win.

Now the winning is over for now. Schneider receives no credit for the winning under his watch or any development of players on the MLB team.

Cavan is gone. Bo will likely soon be too. Vlad likely stays. But the front office has had no problem in recent years trading away Vlad's close associates like Teoscar and Gurriel Jr.

Can Schneider reinvent himself as a player development manager like he was in his New Hampshire days?

A lot of current day criticism of John stems from him running out the husks of veterans like Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier while callups like Steward Berroa rot on the bench. Which harkens back to Cito being a veterans' manager refusing to play rookies.

It's always hard as well to know how much autonomy Schneider has in setting up his lineup in '24 without diktats from the FO or analytics department.

VGJ is a marketable player who attracts fans to the ballpark (and televisions and electronic devices). His agent will want to see that reflected in his next contract. In my opinion, it will take a lot more than 10/$250m to sign him.

That is part of the equation, but lets not go overboard. How "marketable" do you think Vlad really is? I was at a Junior Jays game with a good crowd ~2 weekends ago . I didn't notice any obviously louder cheering when Vlad was at the plate. This is still Toronto - ~50%+ of the people in attendance are there to drink beer and enjoy a summer night out. I get the impression that most people in Toronto are going to the games to see what the revamped Rogers Centre looks like; the baseball game itself is secondary.

Vlad's "marketability" can be said for any of the other star 1B on other teams who didn't get 10 years or $300+M. This isn't Shohei Ohtani where you can calculate a significant surplus value in "marketability". I'm sure they can find someone else to star in those Uncrustables PB&J sandwich commercials.

And moreso; with ~$300M+ can't they just sign 2-3 other players and market them? Vlad is not some generational player when it comes to "marketability". They had Donaldson before him, and Bautista before that. Halladay, Vernon Wells, etc. A smart front office isn't going to overpay out the ass under the fear that they won't ever find someone else to market. His marketability may come into play if he is asking for $25M more than their offer; but if they are offering $250M and he wants $350M? No, I don't think his marketability comes into play.

There’s also the factor re: how the team can turn Vlad's marketability into actual revenue dollars.

Toronto crowds are fickle. Attendance at the Dome is mostly correlated to the team winning (lagging by a year or so), not individual players. HoFs like Halladay & Clemens had very little effect on ticket sales.

Sales of MLB merch goes to the league to be redistributed via revenue sharing (other than merch sales at in-stadium merch shops IIRC).

TV viewership & revenue isn't really a factor since Rogers doesn't pay market rates for their licensing deal.

Even if Vlad had otherworldly marketability potential, where is the revenue coming from that the team can exploit?

Name me a single 1B who has been grossly overpaid in the past ~10 years to a potentially roster-crippling contract (I don't mean Kendrick Morales getting 3 years, $30 million and it not working out). What, over that period there hasn't been a single team that "desperately needed a 1B?" You are speaking as if MLB teams are unaware of how to calculate player value. Teams like the Yankees no longer just throw money around - they literally just pulled out of a trade for Flaherty because of some phantom injury concern they had. Even the richest teams are cautious.

The type of baseball front office management that you seem to be describing does not exist any more. All of these teams are heavily data driven and are trying to squeeze value out of every move. The Mets need a 1B? They actually have one right now who is pretty damn good (Pete Alonso) who is a also a fan favourite, HR champ, etc, etc. and they DON'T want to overpay him because they don't think he is worth it. But you think the Mets are going to just hand Vladdy a blank cheque? Why don't they just extend their own home-grown player today? If some team needs a 1B, they will gladly find a 1-3 year option on the free agent market or just trade for one. Literally nobody's World series aspirations are dependent on who plays 1B for them. Teams look at overall WAR - if Vlad wants some idiotic contract, they will just sign a lesser player and use the significant cost savings to improve their team elsewhere. Duh.

Your suggestion on Soto dictating Vlad's contract makes no sense. Vlad Guerrero plays a lesser position and has produced 41% of the overall career WAR that Soto has produced. Therefore, why the hell would any team pay him 90% of Soto's contract? Paying him 90% of his contract would indicate that someone believes he is likely to be worth 90% of Soto. Nobody believes that, hence he will not be paid that. You talk as if there are teams just closing their eyes and throwing $300, $400 mill at players left and right. The only players who are receiving those contracts play premium positions (SS, 3B, CF) or are literally the best players in the game. Most of the time they are BOTH of those things. Vlad Guerrero fits in neither category. And like I said, if any of these elite 1B/DH types (Alvarez, Goldschmidt, etc.) thought they could get $300-$400 million on the FA market, they wouldn't have signed extensions for 1/3rd or 1/4th of that amount. You don't seem to understand the 1B/DH market. Like I said before, something like 1/3rd of ALL 10+ year contracts in MLB history have gone to Shortstops. This is not "random", it is positional value driving the market. Nobody "overvalues" players who only play 1B or DH - unless you are Pujols and are the best player in the world. Remember back in 2016 when everyone thought Edwin Encarnacion was going to get 5 years, $100 million on the open market and he only ended up getting 3 years, $60 million?

Finally, you are seeing less and less of teams being desperate to overpay their own "star" players to keep them on their rosters. Again, this is another example of teams being less driven by emotional decisions, which is seemingly all you have to suggest as to why you think someone is going to give Vlad 90% of Soto's deal. Mookie Betts leaving Boston, Harper and Trea Turner off the Nats, Soto off the Nats, Freddie Freeman leaving the Braves, deGrom leaving the Mets, Springer and Correa leaving the Astros, Corey Seager leaving the Dodgers, etc, etc, etc. All of these players were traded or allowed to leave on the open market, because their teams did not believe it was worth extending them. These are not "small market" teams either. Now, explain to me what is going to make a team value Vlad Guerrero at $400 million?

Baltimore's been good for a year and a half after subjecting their fans to an awful 5 year teardown rebuild. Attendance tends to lag behind by at least a year. I wouldn't bet on the Jays' attendance advantage persisting.

The secondary market for Jays tickets plummeted in 2017 as soon as the team stopped being competitive even though attendance didn't drop until 2018.

The Jays are also in a honeymoon year with the soft launch of the renovated stadium. We could easily see the Jays struggling to crack 10-12k for shoulder season midweek games if they don't turn it around next year.

Gate attendance is not the main focus of marketing...getting eyeballs on TV is. We're talking about 30-40k people per game vs millions watching.

But again, how valuable are TV ratings if the Jays can't auction off their broadcasting rights. Higher viewership numbers surely pads Rogers Media's bottom line, but I doubt much of those monies ever trickle back to the team.

Corporate sponsorships for stadium ads, Jays product branding are things I hadn't originally considered that would make a star like Vlad directly valuable to making the team measurable revenue.