In terms of first-rounders under Farrell, Martin (2020) and Hoglund (2021) were used as trade chips, but neither look like surefire stars (or even MLB regulars, honestly). Barriera (2022) hasn't been healthy (TINSTAAPP), and Nimmala (2023) and Yesavage (2024) are only just now starting out.

Yes by acknowledging their flaws up to now this front office would have to change their drafting director, some personnel staff, approach to drafts etc.

I don't think there is any indication that there is a problem with the actual player selection in the draft. Given that the success rate on the IFA side has collapsed as well recently (lots of busts among the top signees, and not much in the way of lower-priced guys popping up to become prospects) and players have been stagnating or regressing on the MLB level, this gives me the impression that the organization seems to have a player development problem that is permeating from top to bottom.

Remember that if you draft the "correct" player, but then screw up his development, it isn't a drafting problem. None of the players you draft are finished products.

The reason I say this is because the drafting under Farrell has been generally well received by the "industry" given their picks and overall pools. In the 1st round they tend to select BPA "fallers" that are seen by the industry to be better than the spot where we selected them at. This is generally what most fans want to do anyway. They aren't going "off the board" or making wild picks. With picks 2-10 they have selected a wide variety of player types; they aren't just focusing on the wrong "type" seeing that they are drafting and signing young-and-projectable HS players, data-model darling college hitters, etc, etc. On paper, their draft strategy looks sound and well executed. They have signed at least one "high upside" HS player each year to an above-slot bonus past the first round.

The problem I see is that no matter what type of player they draft, none of them seem to be progressing or developing. The pitchers are all getting hurt, and on the hitting side their "high contact, low strikeout" talents (eg: Kasevich, Roden, etc.) aren't developing any power, and their "high power, contact concern" talents (Nimmala, Tucker Toman, etc.) types haven't progressed as hitters. They have drafted both "athletic" and "non-athletic" profile types and have had little success with either. They have had pitchers develop stuff and look very promising so the selection there seems to be working, but again - they have all gotten injured. Who knows if that is some organizational handling-problem, or just bad luck in a period of baseball whered pitcher injuries are increasing league wide.

Nimmala has been doing very well of late. He’s already #55 on Keith Law’s list of prospects in the minors, at a very young age.

I think hitting development has been fine. Some haven't developed, some have. Pitching development has been abysmal though. Some drafting, some development, some luck.

Really? I feel like it is the complete opposite. I don't see a single hitter drafted among the Top 3 rounds that has amounted to anything going back to ~2019. Among that list you have: Austin Martin, Dasan Brown, Josh Kasevich, Tucker Toman, Cade Doughty, and Alan Roden. The guys drafted in the 4th/5th rounds have basically been nothing as well (your Will Robertsons, Zach Brittons).

On the pitching side you at least have Alek Manoah (dominated the minors, imploded at the MLB level), Nick Frasso, Ricky Tiedemann (legit dominant when healthy, which isn't often), Landen Maroudis (stuff spiked hard and was dominant in 10 IP this season before injury). Those guys all got hurt, but they were at least showing legitimate MLB upside and performance in the minors.

The only hitters they have had some success with have been the low-round guys like Horwitz and Schneider. Their success rate among Top 5 round picks has been non-existent. Teams like the Orioles are drafting and developing guys like Coby Mayo from the 4th round.

Metafour, they've drafted one hitter in the first round and he Was traded while still in minors. I don't know how high the second player you mention was drafted but it was in a place where you wouldn't expect them to make majors. For me, seeing hitters make the majors like Schneider, Horwitz, Jimenez means that they have been developed decently at least. Yes, Orioles have drafted well but also had high picks and tons of room to make moves. They had to be terrible for like five years to get that. For pitching, the Jays developed Manoah and that's it. Other teams are always having relievers or backend starters coming through and Jays just struggle to get those.

Your analysis is faulty. Tucker Toman was valued as a late 1st round talent and was paid $2 million to sign. That was the slot value of the #39 overall pick in the 2022 draft. Kasevich was drafted #60 overall and Doughty was drafted #78 overall. Those are not "low" picks. By comparison, Ricky Tiedemann was drafted #91 overall and did in fact "develop" into a ~Top 30 prospect in all of baseball before injuries derailed him. That one pitcher alone is better "development" than ANY of the hitters drafted in comparable draft position since 2019. Nick Frasso was drafted even lower (in the 4th round) and was "developed" into being the main trade piece for an actual MLB asset (Mitch White - albeit he flopped). Frasso actually became a ~Top 100 prospect on some lists with the Dodgers before he blew his arm out. Manoah, another pitcher, is still the most productive overall Jays draft pick since 2019 - having put up a 4 fWAR season, and a 2 fWAR season. Yes, this is more success than both Schneider and Horwitz to date.

Again, the main point here is that since 2019 they have in fact drafted and "developed" some of their higher round pitchers into actual valuable pieces. The fact that they all got hurt is debatable as to whether or not this falls under "development", or just TINSTAAPP bad-luck. The same can not be said about the hitters drafted with higher round picks: they have all busted hard for the most part and never showed much value. Nimmala is to be determined, but like I mentioned, even in that 2023 draft the 4th round pick Landen Maroudis (HS RHP) was showing stronger out of the gate than Nimmala (he was sitting mid 90's with wipeout breaking stuff and overpowering hitters).

Using "made it to the majors" as the deciding piece is faulty because pitchers are by default more prone to significant injury than hitters are. Guys like Tiedemann, Frasso (had he not been traded) would be up on the MLB roster right now. Same with Manoah (who did make it). Adam Macko was "developing properly", then got hurt like all the others. Most of these guys "stopped developing" because they have been sitting at home with injuries. The hitters on the other hand are playing daily and haven't progressed at all...apart from your two examples of late-round signings (Horwitz and Schneider). And how much value do you put in a 24th round draft selection working out? Is that development, or just good luck? If they could develop Horwitz, why have they failed with every other "more talented" hitter they have drafted in the same time period?

When Kirk won the catching job, Jansen made Reese McGuire redundant as a backup catcher. Jansen is about to do it again in Boston, it would seem.

I'd suggest that the argument to swap Turner out of the lineup for Barger or another young player is not about anticipating a higher level of performance, but rather giving valuable at-bats to a developing player.

Some of the most revered & beloved Jays teams in recent memory in 2015-16 had Josh Donaldson bullying rookies like Dalton Pompey right out of baseball.

But their "great chemistry" still won.

He's got around the same power/HR as Vlad. You're pointing out his average but Paredes is batting only .245. Morel is a .228 career hitter with more power. Paredes is a career .233 hitter. This is exactly the type of shrewd and intelligent move a smart FO like the Rays like to make. Others view Morel as a bad player because of his defense whereas TB will play him at DH or 1B thereby improving their defense and offense all at once.

Parades is a considerably better hitter than Morel (137 wRC+ last season, 130 wRC+ this season) on top of being a considerably better defender as well.

Morel has power, but he also has an atrocious strikeout rate that you conveniently didn't mention. He strikes out at just under a 30% rate over his 3 full MLB seasons. This is really bad. Parades on the other hand has elite place-discipline metrics (high walk rate, low strikeout rate).

The problem with saying "Morel's defense doesn't matter, the Rays will just play him at DH/1B" is that his offense actually tanks when you do that - because there is a higher threshold at 1B/DH than there is at 3B. He is a career 107 wRC+ hitter, why would his offense get BETTER at 1B/DH? That is completely opposite. A 107 wRC+ DH isn't worth anything - remember that Brandon Belt put up a 130+ wRC+ season last year and he can't get even a job this season.

The Rays' play here is that they hope to work their voodoo on Morel and magically fix his deficiencies. Their play isn't to stick a ~110 wRC+ hitter with a 30% K-rate at DH.

I didn't "jump to conclusions."

Jansen literally said he found out about the trade on the clubhouse TV. That's what I said. I didn't say anything about whether Jansen had been advised he was likely to be traded (which would make sense given his impending FA status) or was warned he may be traded by Atkins. He found about being traded from the organization he's been a part of for 13 years from the clubhouse TV, which is what I said.

Whether or not Atkins intended it or not, my opinion remains that once the deal was nearing completion, Atkins should have found a way to let Jansen in on the fact the move was likely imminent. I think that's particularly the case given that the Jansen knew the move was coming and there was no reason to shield him from the knowledge that Toronto was talking about him in trade if the deal fell through.

I didn't think I made a mountain out of it, and didn't intend to, but I think building and maintaining relationships matters and this is a little thing that I think a more acute front office may have handled more effectively. That's all.

Blue Jays met with Jansen recently to talk through possibilities going into the deadline: "A little bit of insight like that was awesome. It was great of them to ease me a little bit, so I could keep focusing, control what I can control. Obviously, it’s been a strange time."