Is Alex Jackson the worst hitting position player in history? I am serious.

Holy crap, I now have the same question, Chuck. He has a wRC+ of 1. In the last 30 days, it's -2.

It's not often you see a guy with an OPS+ of ZERO over 100 Plate Appearances.

His manager can top (lower?) that, with his OPS+ of minus 2 over 117 PApps for the 2003 Blue Jays. But Jackson's career OPS+ is 19, and Cash's was almost double that - does that mean Kevin Cash was twice as good a hitter? My mind boggles at the very concept of such a thing.

Jackson has struck out in 1/2 of his at-bats over his career. Fangraphs assessed his hit tool as 35/40. Not sure what you have to do to get a 20.

Drafted sixth overall? I can not mock. He's had a better career than the guys who went first and second.

Bill Bergen, a NL catcher from the beginning of the 20th century, is often regarded as the worst hitting position player ever. He wasn't good - .170/.194/.201 in almost 1000 games. But Bergen's career OPS+ (21) is better than Jackson's.

I'm now excited to see this guy play!

Wow, a OPS+ of 0 on the nose. Quite the trick with 100 PA. Found some worse wRC+ guys though... even on Tampa! Ben Zobrist in 2007 had a negative wRC+ (-3.9) with an OPS+ of 4 over 105 PA (155/184/206) at SS. Bob Davis here in Toronto in 1979 had a -3.7 wRC+ and a 0 OPS+ over 101 PA (catcher). But the ugliest I found was Ed Connolly in 1931 for Boston with a -37.7 wRC+, -40 OPS+ over 100 PA catching 075/131/086 - lifetime he was 178/239/229 with a 25 OPS+ (408 horrid PA).

Justin Turner has one HR since May 1.

Franco was a franchise player.
It's a huge hit since they won't be able to trade him later either.

The Rangers have fallen pretty hard too.

And the Mariners after DFA of Ty France have put Crawford and Julio Rodriguez on the IL.

The Jays are currently the 6th worse team in MLB but because the A's and White Sox are penalized for tanking and not allowed to pick before 10th, the Jays would be picking 4th if the year ended today.
No doubt we'll teams taking a huge dive in the coming weeks.

If I understand scottt correctly, the Jays are 2.5 games "back" of having the highest odds (a 16.5% chance) for the #1 overall pick in 2025. Even at #4 they're 13.2%.

All you, Nigel.

Turner now has 2 hr since then with his hit today. Back-to-back hr for Vlad and Turner. What you want for your 3 and 4 hitters.

The first time the Jays have hit back-to-back HRs this season. Yikes.

Walking the 9 hitter with a 492 ops is not a great idea.

The rays left 6 men on base with only 4 hits, yet still scored 4 runs, and there were no errors in the game. Can you tell what was the problem tonight (on pitching defense).

Clearly I have the power.

I note that he now has the same number of HRs since June 1 as Otto Lopez.

Well, bright sides...
Turner upped his value by showing he isn't dead yet - 3 for 4 with a HR.
Cabrera looking good (2 K's of 3 faced), Swanson too (1 IP 1 BB 1 SO)
Vlad continues to be playing very well.
A loss ups the odds of a high pick in 2025
As always, a great play by Varsho in the OF.

OK, not a lot, but we'll take what we can get.

“ For now, the Blue Jays intend to keep their players with one-plus year of service time and build around them for another go at the post-season in 2025, before the larger decisions loom”- Davidi

So, what is rhe front office’s plan for making it to the postseason in 2025, once Kikuchi, Jansen, Garcia, Romano and others are gone? More tinkering and hope for the best? Maybe grab a McKinney or Drury at the deadline to shore up the roster?

The Jays are 6 and 15 when Kikuchi starts.
Romano has been gone almost all year.
Garcia was brilliant but has missed half the games so far.
Jansen has a .680 OPS. He blocks well but his throws are not great.
I like Jansen, but he's not an All-Star. Most people wouldn't put him in the top 15 MLB catcher.

They might not find anybody of worth at the deadline.
The upside is probably a guy like Thomas Hatch or Bryan Baker.

The Blue Jays mostly sign free agents these days.
That doesn't mean they can't find trade for another Genesis Cabrera in a trade.

Sought-after FAs are not going to sign with a team that appears to be on the cusp of oblivion for the next few years at least.

Even if you think those four players (Kikuchi, Garcia, Romano, Jansen) are easily replaced — a debatable proposition — your post still doesn’t explain what the plan is to turn this team (run differential: -72) into a legitimate contender next year. Because “hoping for better luck” doesn’t seem like much of a plan.

Greenfrog, this is my issue as well. They might be able to sign a couple of free agents but won't have the money to go after the biggest ones. This team has had some bad luck but nothing exceptional. How does this team get to say 85-90 wins? It's possible but unrealistic and you shouldn't base your plans on the 1% likelihood. My biggest issue is that even if the Jays did get that 1% outcome, what the? BO and Vladdy and Bassitt are all free agents in 2026? What's the plan then? Get lucky again? Is that the ongoing plan now? Just hope to get lucky every year?

The plan would with hitters would seem to be to keep Vlad, Bo, Springer and Varsho, play the kids, maybe sign DH type guy for a year.

With pitching, they would have Berrios, Gausman and Bassitt. Add Rodriguez, with Manoah and Ricky T maybe helping mid season. If they want to go cheap they audition Francis again at SP, or maybe sign a rebound veteran.

Then they need maybe 4 bullpen arms. A smart GM should be able to make that work.

2 problems. That team wont be any better than this year's. And they will face the same crunch at the deadline, of departing FA, including core guys.

I guess they can sell some seasons tickets, and save some management jobs, but it just pushes the can down the road for a year, when they will need to rebuild anyway.

Given the lack of long-term contracts. That would seem to have always been in the cards.

I think you guys are hitting the nail smack on. Lets say we all agree on the predicament the Jays FO is in...this unenviable position...will selling hard make the difference? What do they have to sell for solid returns? I would say Garcia, Vlad and Gausman would net you very good returns but the rest (including Bassit) would likely get you "regular" deadline returns.

My concern right now is that the Rays are the worst team in the division other than the Jays and they have some solid solid prospects coming up soon (Caminero, Williams) plus three great rotation arms AND they are the team everyone seems to want to buy from...not the Jays. To the point, how much further do the Jays fall back in the arms race if the Rays trade Arozarena, Diaz and Paredes and the Jays trade Kikuchi, Garcia and blah? I'd say its a steep drop off on the returns and before you know it they Jays will be 5-10 good to great prospects behind the Rays (from last off season) if you include the return for Glasnow.

In this light I'd prefer they resign Vlad and blow up the rest and hope for quick to majors prospects coming back in Vlad and Bo trades. Kiss free agency goodbye for 2025 for stars then focus on 2026.

Oh yeah, apparently it's coming out that Dave Hudgens was the only coach Springer listened to when it came to hitting and then he went on that 3 month slump. Also coming out that Edwin Encarnacion is the one who "fixed" Vladdy.

They won 89 games last year and 92 the year before.
They weren't particularly lucky in those years either.

Bichette and KK were 2 of their top 5 players last year worth almost 9 WAR between them and nothing this year.

Bichette talked about the Giants being  a team that knows how to win but they won 81 games in 22, 79 last year and are now 48-54. And they lost a bunch of draft pick to pick up Chapman and Snell. Is that what a good front office looks like?

If they consider a retool year in 26, they should go overboard and sign great free agents for 25 so that they can trade them when the budget shrinks down. That's how the Marlins won their World Series.

Free agents wanting to be on a winning team is nonsense. Jose Reyes and Buehrle signed with the Marlins in 2012 after they won 72 and finished 5th. It's not because they didn't want to be on a Toronto team that had only won 81 games. It's money and location.

Scott, you will note Atkins is in on every major FA. Last winter he came up with Turner, Vogelbach, IKF and KK. That's it. There wont be any major free agents. Vets on short term deals and bounceback candidates.

And they dont have prospect trade capital.

They need to rebuild the farm system. Until that happens, they are just the Angels, treading water.

There really is no way to fix the org without a full tear down like the Orioles undertook. The Jays are going to be stuck in Angels/Rockies/Marlins mediocrity for years otherwise. There are no quick fixes and the milb pipeline is a mess. There are few trade candidates (maybe one?) that will bring back any org-changing talent, and no top-tier FA is going to sign here. The front office does not do a good of identifying pro talent and Atkins does not make good trades.

Lots of issues to be dealt with but that Dave Hudgens one is interesting - he was part of the Houston crew who banged around a lot. But he also was the bench coach here for 2020-2021 and hitting strategist for 2022-now. So once focused purely on hitting his students dropped badly it seems vs previous performance, but the team was fine with him as bench coach. I'm thinking he'll be part of a coaching staff purge this winter if it is true he was the one Springer listed to while slumping. Doubt Edwin wants to coach full-time but if so maybe worth looking into.

My expectations are a lot of coaching changes this winter and some big player changes (namely Bo). Ideally Vlad is signed long term and locked in here as he has been the face of the franchise since 2019. 2025 will be a rebuild unless kids grow fast and/or some big free agents come. We all know Rogers has the cash and the Jays have the cash flow (they are a top 5 market in MLB - local TV ratings last reported were far, far above everyone else plus the crowds are still big despite sucking). The trade deadline will be interesting - will they clear the cash or go for prospects?

The blame for what is looking like a lame trade deadline for the Jays falls squarely on the owner, Edward Rogers. Shapiro/Atkins have one year left and their motivation is to get contract extensions so only moving expiring contracts and pretending to compete next year is their best bet to be extended if the team makes or flirts with the playoffs next year - A significant sell off will acknowledge their failures and likely seal their exits - Ownership should have either extended them or fired them but doing nothing is paralysis.

John, Springer went into the slump after Hudgens was removed.

AH, forgot he was removed. However, with him in 2023 Springer had his worst year (103 OPS+) before this one. Springer said in interviews he has no idea what changed him from horrid to damn good this year. June 24th he was hitting 188/278/281, since 358/416/753 over 22 games (but the team is just 10-12). Doubt Hudgens was the key, unless Springer went to him in late June, but I figure we'd have heard if he had.

None the less, the main point that the coaching staff will be purged this winter unless the turnaround Springer experienced spreads to others still sounds true to me. Mattingly came in 2023 and the team's hitting has been pathetic since - could be coincidence but I can't see how he'd be ranked as any good with that - his other big job was to improve Vlad's defense at 1B and that hasn't happened by eye test or stats imo. The pitching has been good but is that mostly the fielding? Seems to be. Whoever is responsible for infield/outfield/catcher defense coaching has either done a great job or isn't hurting things - that/those coaches should be safe outside of Mattingly. We might see some baby tossed with the bathwater this winter, but hopefully not too much (hoping Matt Hague survives - given the Buffalo bunch wasn't viewed highly before he worked with them).

So how to move forward? Coaching and GM changes I could see happening. Bo being traded seems inevitable after his comments about wanting to leave (although those could've been exaggerated). Signing Vlad long term would be a smart move imo. But #1 has to be improving draft/IFA/development. That has been far weaker than desired - after a good 2016 draft (Bo, Biggio) things haven't been so good - 2017: Davis Schneider (2.5 bWAR), 2018 nada so far (Barger still might save it), 2019: Manoah (7.5) and Horwitz (1.0) is not bad, 2020: Martin reached, the rest flopped or injured, 2021: hoping for Tiedemann, Dallas to save it, 2022: not looking good right now, 2023: Nimmala gives a lot of hopium to us. But right now the 2016-now drafts are mostly hope, not results outside of Bo & Manoah (and Biggio to a lesser degree, done now that he is gone).

Yeah, Hudgens tweeted a MAGA comment just minutes before a game last season and after the World Series he was reassigned "elsewhere in the organization".

The Berrios trade has looked good for a while but not so much lately, especially last night. Berrios struggled with his command and only allowed 3 runs, but after a hot start in April, he has an ERA over 5. Meanwhile, Simeon Woods-Richardson pitched 6 innings against the Phillies with no runs, 3 hits, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts.

Hindsight is easy but signing Tyler O'Neill would have worked out a lot better than Kevin Kiermaier or Justin Turner. O'Neill is just costing the Red Sox 5.8 million and has clouted 20 home runs and given them 2.2 WAR. Of course, he has only been healthy enough to play over a hundred games once in the last 6 years so it would have been a risk adding him, but maybe that is what the Jays are going to have to do in the next few years.

The Orioles played 4 years with an empty stadium.
They had the luck of not being impacted by Covid.
This approach would be more expensive for Rogers than signing Soto.


The Angels are run by the owner. The Marlins are run by an ex player.
The Rockies are run by idiots.

What people call mediocrity is likely to look more like Boston.
High payroll, high revenues, middling results.
Boston didn't get much for Mookie Betts.
They have done OK by extending Devers. 22 WAR over 8 years.  3 times All-Star.
Guerrero has 17.8 WAR over 6 years. 4 times an All-Star.

I think the gameplan of giving the duo of Vladdy and Bo one more shot at a playoff run, in their contract years, is both pragmatic and fun for us fans. 

Making the playoffs, going on a run, is such a bonus for a team, financially, so it's just easier for teams to justify the 'just get in' mentality. 

They'd be counting on comeback seasons from at least two of Bo, Manoah and Kirk.  An aging rotation of quality starters has to stay steady. 

But that's what I'd do, if I were Atkins, especially now with Bo injured. 

The rotation's recent struggles make it feel less likely they move a starter with term. 

With the guys we are trying to move, there could be value targeting minor league pitchers who profile in relief, or 6th/7th starters, the low ceiling types that get dealt at this time of year.  I mean, we have Aaron Sanchez starting in Buffalo.  
Arms with more options to push the Zach Pop types down the depth chart, and put poor Mr. Sanchez out his misery, along with a few prospects, and roster space cleared up for younger players?  
I'd take that deadline outcome.   
And if there is a way to spend corporate money to take/pay for bad contracts and add a flier or two, great, but I can't recall these guys doing that before? 

If this team "retools" for '25, and it is Atkins' last gasp, I'd definitely like to see a predominately new coaching staff, including a new manager. Hopefully, some soul searching will allow them to see past the "manager position as the extension of the analytics department" and hire an experienced, accomplished field manager who doesn't need any shakedown time.

Showalter, Maddon, Girardi, Gibbons, hell give Gardenhire and Francona a call.

If the Jays choose to retool and try to contend next year, I think they'd still be best advised to trade Bassitt now, and replace him in the second half with some decent-ish prospect currently in AAA acquired in a different trade. Bassitt is having a good year but he's 35 and will be making $21m next year. You can probably get a decent return for him and replace him next year with a free agent signee.

Definitely feels like the Pete Walker magic is gone now. Pitching is way worse than it should be.

I continue to think that Shapiro is the root of the issues. 25 years running shops and 2 playoff series wins...and that's counting rerunning 2015 sans-Price because "all you have to do is get in, then anything can happen!". Show me a GM/Pres with a worse track record and I'll show you someone that has dirt on their owner.

I'm tired of the notion that "just make it to the playoffs" is good enough. That was the attitude in the Ricciardi days as well. You can "compete" on a budget. You can "compete" by finding "efficiencies" (or whatever euphemism people want for operating at the leading edge). But the Jays did not under Ricciardi operate at the leading edge that the A's did. By the time the Red Sox under Epstein showed that if you take Billy Ball 2.0 (the Beane version) and spend, it would work. What happened? Virtually all of the league caught up.

Another example: The Rays started shifting. The Rays started using "openers" and now shifts are banned for being "boring", and the trend away from 200IP pitchers continues. But the Jays aren't a bottom feeder like Tampa or Oakland (rip). They are a market that is either the size of the GTA and one of the 4 largest, or they're a national brand in a country with 40m people....either way it's hard to argue that they can't spend and spend consistently.

Yet the fans are fleeing from the supposedly nice new building full of leasehold improvements. We are told that we should be grateful and inspired by Shapiro for doing what was probably mandated in the lease. I just don't buy it.

And all the blame for all this is going to Atkins? Surely he deserves some credit, but Shapiro didn't want to give full autonomy to his GM. That's why AA didn't take the contract he was offered. He was being demoted and marginalized. So we have a committee that includes the President running things. He wanted the buck to stop with him...let it stop. Please...let it stop.

Shapiro has a loser mindset. "competing" is not winning. Any front office that says that their goal is "competing" and not winning is probably doing so to temper YOUR expectations so you can't say they promised to win. That's a sign. You can't buy championships. But somehow the teams running top-3 payrolls consistently have all won them in the last 20 years with the possible exception of Detroit who probably would have if Big Caesar was still around demanding one. The Emiratis show what money can do in club football, the dodgers seem to have "waves of prospects" that Shapiro promised....so what happened? Who is to blame?

I blame the person that promised "goof enough" as if that is all this fanbase can expect. The minors are a disaster and the guys called up this year...if one of them becomes a star player...that's still not enough to move the Jays out of being a perennial third place team in the division. It's just a mess of risk-aversion, cost-control, which reaps exactly what it has sewn.

Shapiro has the keys to the VIP and uses it like the guileless buffoons on that ill-fated piece of cancon. Once Bo and Vlad leave, which appears imminent, the MLB pipeline has a doper and a guy they've spent nearly a month getting diagnosed for his elbow who's thrown a combined what? 50 innings in the last two years? Then you have their legacy costs. No Tulo-esque deals, but no Tulo-level players either. Berrios with his ERA creeping towards 5 for the second time in 3 years is going to be paid for a long time after this year.

Where in free agency do they go? How do you convince Soto to come to the city with the situation as it looks today? Ohtani rebuked them (we're told). And if you aren't in on Soto...with the war chest what it demonstrably is...then why would you pretend to "compete"?

Shapiro needs to go. He was the wrong hire in 2015 and every single Stan that wrote positively about the hiring needs to break the illusion that he has any capability to win. He has never won, and he never will. He's a follower. Not a buster. You know the rest.

The "Pete Walker magic" was always an absurd myth giving way too much credit to a single person. People overlook how big these organizations and decision making teams are.

Plausible Best Lineups

Using This Year's Stats Only:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 138pa, 143wrc+, 5.7war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 432pa, 140wrc+, 2.7war/650pa
* 3. SS Falefa 281pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
* 4. RF Springer 386pa, 101wrc+, 2.4war/650pa
* 5. LF Schneider 311pa, 101wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* 6. DH Turner 327pa, 101wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* 7. 3B Clement 211pa, 97wrc+, 2.2war/650pa
* 8. C Jansen 220pa, 95wrc+, 1.8war/650pa
* 9. CF Varsho 342pa, 94wrc+, 4.2war/650pa

* (X. UT Biggio 185pa, 83wrc+, 1.1war/650pa)
* X. C Kirk 193pa, 72wrc+, 3.4war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette 331pa, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650pa
* (X. PH Vogelbach 79pa, 69wrc+, -2.5war/650pa)
* X. OF Kiermaier 201pa, 55wrc+, 0.6war/650pa

* X. UT Jimenez 38pa, 110wrc+, 1.7war/650pa
* X. UT Martinez 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650pa
* X. C Serven 13pa, 10wrc+, -5.0war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 63pa, 0wrc+, -7.2war/650pa
* X. OF Berroa 4pa, -100wrc+, -16.3war/650pa



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 172pa, 136wrc+, 4.9war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 692pa, 129wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* 3. LF Schneider 452pa, 124wrc+, 4.2war/650pa
* 4. C Jansen 304pa, 109wrc+, 3.2war/650pa
* 5. 3B Clement 254pa, 105wrc+, 3.1war/650pa
* 6. SS Falefa 417pa, 102wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
* 7. RF Springer 647pa, 100wrc+, 4.0war/650pa
* 8. CF Varsho 545pa, 100wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
* 9. DH Turner 539pa, 99wrc+, -0.1war/650pa

* (X. PH Vogelbach 186pa, 106wrc+, 0.3war/650pa)
* (X. UT Biggio 357pa, 98wrc+, 1.8war/650pa)
* X. C Kirk 368pa, 88wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* X. PH Votto 140pa, 88wrc+, -0.9war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette 490pa, 86wrc+, 1.6war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 344pa, 71wrc+, 1.7war/650pa

* X. IF Jimenez 38pa, 110wrc+, 1.7war/650pa
* X. UT Martinez 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650pa
* X. OF Lukes 6pa, 65wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. C Serven 13pa, 10wrc+, -5.0war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 63pa, 0wrc+, -7.2war/650pa
* X. OF Berroa 4pa, -100wrc+, -16.3war/650pa



Using Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections

* 1. 2B Horwitz 174pa, 118wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 258pa, 141wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
* 3. SS Bichette 174pa, 114wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* 4. RF Springer 237pa, 113wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* 5. LF Schneider 187pa, 112wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
* 6. C Kirk 118pa, 112wrc+, 5.5war/650pa
* 7. DH Turner 200pa, 108wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
* 8. CF Varsho 237pa, 104wrc+, 3.6war/650pa
* 9. 3B Clement 103pa, 99wrc+, 2.5war/650pa

* (X. PH Vogelbach 55pa, 112wrc+, 1.2war/650pa)
* X. C Jansen 142pa, 111wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* (X. UT Biggio 78pa, 95wrc+, 1,.7war/650pa)
* X. IF Falefa 163pa, 93wrc+, 2.4war/650pa
* X. PH Votto 50pa, 93wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 137pa, 83wrc+, 1.9war/650pa

* X. OF Lukes 5pa, 101wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 63pa, 95wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
* X. IF Jimenez 76pa, 94wrc+, 2.6war/650pa
* X. UT Martinez 72pa, 94wrc+, 1.8war/650pa
* X. OF Berroa 18pa, 75wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. C Serven 5pa, 57wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

I agree with a lot of what is written here. The Jays are in a bad place. They could go for it in 2025 by signing a number of free agents on short term deals. That sometimes works out. But it is high risk.

The danger for the Jays is that they hang on to Bo and Vlad, play just over .500 ball next season, and so don't trade them at the deadline as they go for one more shot at a playoff win.

The result would leave the system extremely bare headed into 2026.

I have been in the Atkins out camp for well over a year now, maybe more than that, and I see no signs of success anywhere in the system, except for the Dunedin facilities.

Shapiro is a smooth talker but one who is cruising based on one big trade. Soon after Shapiro became GM of the Indians (at the time) he traded Bartolo Colon to Montreal for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens. It was one of the most lop-sided trades in baseball history. Cleveland with those players went on to have some moderate success. They won 90 games twice over the next five years but those were their only winning seasons for the ten years after the trade. But that trade gave him a reputation. Remember too his father was a well known sports agent making Shapiro a nepo baby, before that term was invented.

Shapiro was GM or President in Cleveland from 2001 through the 2014 season. Cleveland had five winning seasons in that span with three post season appearances. In short Shapiro's reputation exceeds his on field results.

Bowden Francis had another good start for Buffalo today. He is lined up to make his next start on Monday when the Jays have a doubleheader in Baltimore.

"I'm tired of the notion that "just make it to the playoffs" is good enough"

No matter who the Jays hire, they will have the same mindset because like 95% of teams in baseball have that mindset. Why? Because with expanded playoffs, that's what makes sense. Even teams like the Dodgers and Yankees operate like this. Last year, Dodgers traded for like Lance Lynn and utility infielders with lots of prospects they could have dealt. No team goes "all in" because it's idiotic in modern baseball to do so. I'm pretty ambivalent on Shapiro because I think his main job has been dunedin and Rogers Centre renovations and I guess those are fine? He also convinced Rogers to spend a lot which is good.

Also, the Jays are absolutely not in a good place right now and I get the negativity and feel it but the last four years were the best four year period the Jays have had since 1993. Comparing this to Ricciardi years is ludicrous.

You can add some more context: Montreal makes that deal ONLY because they were moving at the end of the year. They literally sold the farm and pushed ALL IN. If the A's were anywhere close to contention, we MIGHT have seen something similar this year. It was a real unicorn situation, and whatever team lined up with the Spoz' would have looked good. Shapiro benefited not just from his dad doing him favours, but that trade was a big reason he got the Jays job. I said at the time he was hired, without Montreal gifting them most of their farm, Shapiro would have taken one of the top teams in the previous five years and run it into the ground again for another decade and a half.

It's embarrassing that Toronto fans and media are sitting around with straight faces blaming his underlings. I feel like I'm watching Steve Jobs touch crystals all over again. Cut it out. It being Shapiro in this case.

Over the last 2 years, Francis has dominated in Buffalo when he has been there.  In the major leagues, he has an ERA of 3.84 and an xERA of 4.21 over those 2 years.  At this point, his objective expectation is about the same as Jose Berrios' (an ERA of about 4.5). The club, of course, does not believe this.  It is possible that they are wrong. 

***forgot Montreal stuck around a couple years after that. But that was the end of their window and they knew it. That's why they sold the future (because there was no tomorrow).

They don't have to limit themselves to short term deals.
Guys on longer term can be traded and bring even more back.

Bo is both in a year long slump and not staying healthy.

Guerrero is something but Baltimore had Manny Machado and they got 5 prospects for him including Pop and Breyvic Valera. That's more lopsided than your Bartolo Colon trade.

Nepotism goes back thousand of years. It's not a new thing.

Cleveland is a small market and Montreal was a small market before there were any small market compensation.
Shapiro wanted to be on a team that plays in free agency.
Phillips wasn't any good while he was in Cleveland. Cleveland had Ronnie Belliard at second.
Lee Stevens? That's a mediocre platoon outfielder. Replacement level, even.
Grady Sizemore was an athletic outfielder who was great from age 22 to 26. Missed 2 full years due to injury. Was toast after.
Cliff Lee was a lefty who had some bad year and some good years, especially while he was under team control.

The Expos traded the Big Unit for Mark Langston. Now that is a lopsided trade. 

If I get anything out of that, it's that Shapiro would need some real talent back to move Guerrero.
I don't see it happening. In this game, the small market teams trade away their good prospects for controllable players and the rich teams trade away their surplus prospects for expensive stars.

I think the Jays having the biggest crowds because the 2015 team someone else built has a lot more to do with convincing Rogers to spend than anything Shapiro did. He's sure got a lot of people giving him credit for something he really didn't 'do' imo. Or landing a 1-1 pick in the farm system he said was empty...another thing he's managed to bungle. Vlad was an MVP candidate at 21. Either that's your future and you lock it up, or you move on. I haven't enjoyed the creamy middle. No one looks at English football and thinks: hey, Tottenham...they're in a posh neighbourhood and they never win...I guess they could spend, but why win when you can..."compete"?

The expanded playoffs make the World Series worse imo. You end up with more paper champions. I don't mean a team where they would have won 100 games if their star player wasn't hurt until August and then they heat up, I don't mean teams that are young and come back and win 100 games the next year, I mean some team that is a real-talent 83-win team. EVEN IF one of those teams wins, which isn't going to happen with this type of Jays team, it's because there are good vibes and unerring belief in themselves and their worthiness. The 2015 Jays team wasn't even playing well after they passed the hat around and were told they still couldn't sign Santana. At least those players wanted to do something other than collect a pay cheque.

No one wants another Shea Hillenbrands situation on their hands, but that's what happens when you treat guys like they did the waiver move on Kiermaier. Or other asinine things that are just simply poor management of emotions. The front office doesn't manage people well. Look at the communication around Berrios last post-season. The players, coaches, managers, front office could easily come out and say: yea, it was unpopular, but that's how we do things here. We all trust each other and it was the best move. That didn't happen because the organization is a joke run by people that play OOTP rather than people that lead people to do better than they thought they could.

I know your well-ingrained position that mediocrity is actually greatness. I'll come over to admire your James "Buster" Douglas memorabilia some day.

You don't need to demand better, but I do.

soupman, it would be easier to hear you out if the posts weren't reading as a smear campaign of the front office...

Shapiro was a decent GM. Cleveland was small market and managed to field competitive teams in '03 and '04 and boosted by "the trade" they won 93 games in '05 and missed the playoffs by a hair. '07 they were a World Series quality team, losing in 7 to a juggernaut Red Sox club in the ALCS. That is a very Anthopolous-adjacent record with less payroll. Then he became President and oversaw a pretty successful rebuild hiring Atkins as a farm director and Chris Antonetti as GM. They hired a hall of fame manager, made the playoffs in 2013, nearly won the World Series in '16 and have been very good three of the last four seasons. All this while having a low payroll.

I mean, yes, the team is a mess right now and Shapiro should take the blame. But unless there is an obviously better candidate to replace him (Dombrowski, perhaps...who are some other names??) it's hard to sit there and advocate for a total teardown.

I did believe for a while that Shapiro was "average", but given how Cleveland fared under the previous regime and the current regime, not to mention how Toronto did under the previous regime, and it's getting really hard to say that Shapiro is even average.

"I think the Jays having the biggest crowds because the 2015 team someone else built has a lot more to do with convincing Rogers to spend than anything Shapiro did. "

at the very least, it made it much, much, much easier for Shapiro to "convince" them.

Well Petey I guess the stats are in the eye of the beholder. I look at five winning seasons in 14 years and say thats not good. You look at three post season appearances in the same time span and say hey thats decent.

Different folks see things differently.

I’ve mentioned this before, but the absurd thing about this failed window of contention is that the Blue Jays could have made a legitimate run at the WS in 2021 — if they had traded for a halfway decent reliever instead of making a “value” trade for Brad Hand.

Essentially, one small mistake torpedoed the organization’s best chance at a postseason run since 2015-2016. Characteristically, it was a “cautious” move that did in this front office. Now it’s rebuild time.

Differing opinions, changing opinions ... Whatever the modulation was up to 2022, even 2023, is now mute as 2024 has proven that close to a decade later, one of the longest tenured GMs in MLB has already gone through a full cycle of winning and losing and come away with nothing. Nadda. Bad farm. Bad playoffs. Bad core.

The vagaries of the Shapiro/Atkins regime go no higher than "average" at best when grading them out.

Hart was GM before Shapiro in Cleveland. They had won the Central 6/7 times and also broke 3million in attendance 6 years in a row, a streak that ended with Shapiro and a gate they haven't sniffed since.

Since he left, they've been to the playoffs 6/9 years, winning the division in five of them (assuming standings today hold). Shapiro had them up to the 15th highest payroll at one point which is also what the new regime capped out at. Today they're winning that division for under 100m...good for 23rd in baseball, in 2022 they did it on the 27th highest payroll.

The idea that Shapiro did well with a small budget is demonstrably false. His predecessors and successors have outperformed him. Shapiro had the benefit of revenue sharing and an imbalanced schedule that has been reduced for the current regime. They aren't sneaking into the playoffs, they are winning that division consistently. There is more money in baseball now than ever, and they are winning with lower (relative) payrolls than Shapiro ran.

Shapiro might be competent...but given that there are only 30 people in one of those roles, I assume the number of people capable of clearing that bar is higher than 30. There is simply no way a championship level organization should continue to employ someone with no record of success, no clue how to fix the current issues, and who spent 500m as the team and gates tumble.

AA put 3million people in the dome. Shapiro took that windfall, spent it on putting subway tile vinyl veneer backsplashes from 2015 up for half a billion dollars to try and sell more $20macro brews. In Cleveland the damage still hasn't been undone despite them winning for most of a decade after he was there.

The record speaks for itself and it is far from good. Good as gone should be more like it.

I dont like to litigate the past like many of you do.

I would say this regime has done a good job of building process. But like many that love process, its because they dont have the genius.

They just don't know how to recognize the best amateur players or how to develop them. That's not something you learn in math class.

Bottom line is they are where they are. Time for some new decision makers.

On a different point, I dont usually watch daytime TV, but how the hell do Blair and Barker have a show? My goodness they are idiots.

lol. If you look at the competition it makes more sense why Blair and Barker have a show and are the #1 rated baseball show in Canada.

How many years? How many years does Shapiro get? Indications are that Atkins would not even be fired. He'd be "reshuffled" somewhere in the front office. If this is a "team" that makes collective and collaborative decisions - decisions like how to manage playoff games - let's say Shapiro shuffles another underling into the GM chair. Then what? what has changed? is it not still "the process" at work which would, in theory, lead to the same consensus being formed by the same Voltron-like collective?

What actually changes? How many years does he get? This isn't Paul Beeston sitting up there talking to Labbatt's execs. This is a guy that didn't give the incumbent autonomy on baseball decisions. When does that become something he wears? 25 years and 2 playoff series wins. A top-5 payroll has resulted in zero postseason WINS...not even series wins...not a single game to show for it.

Cut the rot at the root. In this case, to get to the bottom you have to look at the top.

Look what happened when Cleveland got rid of Shapiro. Sure looks to me that it wasn't the Atkinses or the underlings that were the issue.

absurd thing about this failed window of contention is that the Blue Jays could have made a legitimate run at the WS in 2021 — if they had traded for a halfway decent reliever instead of making a “value” trade for Brad Hand."

This is the issue I have with so much of this discussion. You're right. They could have gone for a better reliever but they also signed Semien and traded nothing for Ray which are two of the best moves the Jays have ever made but everyone focuses on the move they didn't. Shapiro is lucky to have made a great trade but AA getting encarnacion and Bautista handed to him? No, no, no luck there. I believe it's time to move on but the need for people to have the narrative of genius/failure just doesn't fit reality.

I feel really out of place with the group this year. Last year was a year of rage and frustration for me. I really struggle to understand the vitriol people have for the team. Romano, Swanson, Mayza, Garcia, Bichette, Springer, Manoah, Gausman, Jansen, and lately Berrios, have all either missed significant time or seen their production drop off. This sucks, big time, and none of us predicted this and if our pre-season thread included all of that info I think we would be Ok to hear that the team maintained a 450 win% through this.

My personal opinion is this was a year from hell. I do see a path to competitive baseball for the Jays next year. I also understand why some would prefer a tear down. However, like some have said, I think it’s easier to look for the 5-6 missing pieces than an entire roster. I think winning baseball is more fun than prospect porn, so I hope they try to keep winning.

Per MLBTR, KK has announced that he's done after 2024 - not a huge surprise to anyone paying attention, IMHO. Says his body has told him he's done.

Shapiro said all the right things when hired and in subsequent seasons, but the actions haven't matched the words. Whether it's him, or Atkins, or a combination of both plus others, the team from top to bottom is not in a good place right now. The one strength the team did have is identifying good MLB players and being able to spend in free agency, which ended up masking their issues with player development for a couple of years. You simply cannot build a sustainably good team without developing talent, and it finally caught up with them.

I tend to agree Shapiro is the one who needs to be replaced more than Atkins. This will now be the 2nd time that he has been in charge of a team that was at the end of their competitive window, but both times he decided to prolong the inevitable for the sake of selling tickets the following season. You can say that's an ownership call, and I'm sure that's a big part of it, but Shapiro making the same mistake for the 2nd time in 8 years is very telling of the type of executive he is.

KK says he is retiring after this season.

Wonder if Turner makes the same decision.

"I’ve mentioned this before, but the absurd thing about this failed window of contention is that the Blue Jays could have made a legitimate run at the WS in 2021 — if they had traded for a halfway decent reliever instead of making a “value” trade for Brad Hand."

of course we shouldn't have been surprised by that at all, since they did the EXACT SAME THING their first year here, when they inherited an elite contender, did nothing to upgrade the team in the offseason, and then used the trade deadline to trade for the corpse of BJ Upton and (for some insane reason) for prospects, too.

"AA put 3million people in the dome. Shapiro took that windfall, spent it on putting subway tile vinyl veneer backsplashes from 2015 up for half a billion dollars to try and sell more $20macro brews. In Cleveland the damage still hasn't been undone despite them winning for most of a decade after he was there."

Glevin, agree with your last post.

Once the deadline is over, I’m interested in seeing if anyone in the org can fill some of the existing bullpen vacancies. I’d like to see them give opportunities to guys like Juenger, Cooke, Danner, Fluharty, Pardino, and maybe Tiedeman can be a part of the solution for next year. I also hope Jimenez, Barger, Horwitz and Schneider get to play everyday. Beyond that, I’m hoping for a Vlad extension and for a return to form for our starters so we have more to look forward to for next year.

After this season, I may join Kiermaier.

Cooke is on the development list, but those other guys you mentioned and Eisert are all guys we should get a more extended look at.

I don't see why the Jays can't be competitive in 2026. Having Springer, Gausman, and Berrios under contract really shouldn't hamstring them that badly.

I'm as disillusioned as anyone about the current situation, and I echo ayjackson's sentiments..
A season like this makes you question why so heavily invested in̈ the team.

But taking this organization down to the studs after a season of underperformance and injury just doesn't seem quite right. It's just not time yet. And I'm happy about that. I've said before, the rosterbation and prospect porn pales in comparison to cheering for your team to play to its potential. And yes, Atkins should walk the plank for this mess, and maybe Shapiro should too, but the timing just isn't right to make the move quite yet.

honestly all i want is Shapiro fired. that shouldn't been tearing the org down to the studs.

There's a middle ground between a complete tear down and "do nothing and hope that someway they're competitive in 2025". It wouldn't be easy but I think a middle ground might help you pave the way to being competitive in 2026. The core of that would be converting money tied up in expensive starters into some prospects and salary room, getting creative with how you find 300 or so cheap league average innings (I happen to believe Francis is a part of that) and making a decision on Vladdy (make him a reasonable long term offer that would value him as a 3-3.5 WAR player and if he isn't willing to sign for that then trade him for assets). At lot more smaller things need doing but that would be the core of it. You have to be willing to accept pain in 2025 though. I happen to think 2025 is lost already so that is an acceptable risk but Rogers likely doesn't want that outcome. Doing nothing like this past offseason is death post 2025.

inherited an elite contender, did nothing to upgrade the team in the offseason, and then used the trade deadline to trade for the corpse of BJ Upton and (for some insane reason) for prospects, too.

Not accurate at all, but who gives a....

Everybody on this board: This team is very bad this year and future doesn't look as promising as it did a few years ago. The FO has failed.

Some other people on this board: Guys the team is terrible and the FO has done nothing right. Shapiro must be fired because we are sure he is getting an extension after his contract finishes in 2025.

A couple of posters: Shapiro is the anti christ and everything he did good was because of AA and everything bad with this team is his fault. We must exterminate.

We will put the last batch down as undecided.

I agree with Nigel. Try to build for 2026. Offer Vladdy a long-term deal as a 3.5 WAR a year player and if he doesn't accept trade him. You do that, I think Jays can do OK. If they try to contend in 2025, they will lose out long-term massively.

Horwitz does remind me of a younger Votto-lite. Dude battles on two strikes, locks in. Not an easy out. Still crossing my fingers we see both of them later this season.

I find it weird that Tampa Bay has a player named "Siri." I always have questions...

Just sign Vladdy please and do whatever the heck you want with the rest of the roster.

I'm open to a complete tear-down, but I don't think much is lost by trading our expiring contracts (plus Bassitt and IKF), then going out in the offseason and retooling the bullpen and signing someone like Max Fried, who can help in 2025 and beyond.

Bo can't be as bad as he has been this year, and if he wants to get paid in free agency, he'll be motivated.

There's no way the bullpen can be as terrible as this year.

I think that, on paper, the Jays should be able to be competitive next year without breaking the bank in the offseason.

There is a parallel with the Joe Biden situation. For a long time, he made it seem like a change in leadership of the Democratic Party was impossible. He alone could lead the party into the 2024 election. Then he stepped aside and a tremendous surge of energy, optimism and momentum was unleashed. (Whether this changes the outcome of the election remains to be seen.)

I think a similar situation exists with the Blue Jays. Atkins and Shapiro and their bafflegab and inscrutable "process" have made it seem as though change is just too complicated, too difficult to effect. They alone can do it. In fact, overhauling the front office and installing smart, creative, competent people would likely be a breath of fresh air and get people excited about this team again.

Looks like someone in management got the Rodriguez signing right.

As I typed that he have up a double

unlike Shapiro, Biden has actually had an incredibly successful tenure, and much shorter to boot.

I think the frustrating part is not that they want to compete in 2025, but it’s that they want to stand pat. There’s no creativity or sense of wanting to actually upgrade the upside of the roster. If they wanted to compete in 2025 but then traded Bassitt, Green, and IKF to open up $40m in 2025 payroll room, then you can at least dream on that a bit. But to hold on to overachieving assets that could be moved this week in order to hold them for next year just reeks of not having a real vision.

There are ways to play both sides reasonably effectively. They didn’t do that in 2017 and seems like they won’t do that in 2024, and it will probably lead to the same result.

I can't unsee Siri in that video he made with Franco denying the allegations against him.

I would note that Shapiro has a lot of his job that does not involve the W/L record. Like making money, advertising, etc, etc.

We have no idea whether he has been successful with any of that.

I can see a scenario where Atkins is tossed and he stays.

Consider that VGJ currently has an excellent wRC+ of 143, well above his career average. Yet after 100 games this season, he has posted 1.8 fWAR / 2.5 bWAR (maybe a bit higher after today). Even when he stays healthy and hits exceptionally well, he's still only about a 3-4 WAR player.

Let's say he wants 10/$400m (or 12/$450m). Do you give him that? At what point do you draw the line and trade him, the way the Nationals did with Soto?

The bottom line is that he's going to get paid by someone. VGJ is right about that.

How many times is Schneider going to get burned by the same stupid decision?

Wow, the negativity. Everyone take a breath and remember the Ash years - where we had multiple near HOF'ers (Delgado, Olerud) or HOVG (Green, Carpenter, Wells, Hudson), future HOF'ers (Alomar, Halladay), insane seasons (Clemens 97/98 pitcher triple crown wins), and 0 playoff games, 0 seasons with 89+ wins, a peak win season when the team gave up mid-season (dumped vets at mid-season '98 then went 34-18 after July). Pre 1995 there were 6 top 100 prospects (2 were top 10) with the system ranked #3.

This crew took a team with few prospects left (just 1 top 100 prospect in Anthony Alford), ranked #24 in MLB. The core was in their 30's (Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Happ, Estrada, Dickey in his 40's). Their young closer was a predator it turned out (miracle they got anything for him). Dalton Pompey was the only sub 25 hitter on the 2016 team. Osuana & Sanchez for pitchers. Yeah, not much to work with beyond vets. Now, unranked but in the system were Vlad, Jansen, Romano, Mazya so AA gets some credit, but so does the farm team that Atkin's & Shapiro put in place (they changed a lot when they took over iirc).

Now, do they deserve some shots? Oh yeah. Their drafts post 2016 have been unsuccessful to date (but might look better in 5 years - drafts take forever to be known). Their IFA's haven't been impressive post 2016 when they got a ton (mostly thanks to AA's team of scouts I suspect). On the plus side is how they handle free agency and IFA's who aren't pre-25 (see Gurriel Jr, Rodriguez). Overall IMO things could be a LOT worse (Ash or JPR). They could be better of course, but many other teams can say the same. Detroit hasn't reached the playoffs from 2016-now (1 winning season) for example. The White Sox from 2016-now have 2 playoff wins but 0 series wins (2 playoff appearances). From 2002-now the Mariners have 1 playoff appearance where they beat the Jays but were swept in the next round. I could go on but the point is there. The Jays could be a LOT worse off.

We have some kids to enjoy (25 and unders are Vlad, Schneider, Kirk, Jimenez, Barger, Berroa, Orelvis. Horwitz is 26. Rodriguez is 27). Some vets to enjoy (Kiermaier on defense is a joy, Springer always looks like he is 10 out there, Varsho a human highlight reel. Yeah, some sucks, but lets enjoy the good and hope the suck leaves this winter.

You die laughing if he wants $40+ m per year and trade him for assets. Shapiro deserves credit for convincing Rogers re: the significant increase in payroll in recent years. How much? Who knows.

There is no “good path forward” but the absence or prospects today is a fact of life no matter which path you choose. I guess I default to the middle path as a way to get at least a few prospects in the door. If you do nothing there is an even bigger problem in 2025. I’d clean house at the top as well.

Green and  Bassitt are the type of players they need more of.
They had to pay Green when he was injured to get him in and they lost a second round pick to sign Bassitt.
You don't replace good players signed to good contracts just to try to get lucky replacing them.
They will have to fight with 20+ other teams to find good bullpen pieces.

They don't need to open $40m. They can spend as much as they want.
This isn't the Beeston era.

IKF might have had value at the deadline but he's injured.
He's not really worth anything during the winter.
It would be different if he was making 700K.
Clement is just one year younger and is not quite as good defensively or offensively.
Obviously Jimenez needs to stay on the team. Bichette makes it dicey.

"Let's say he wants 10/$400m (or 12/$450m). Do you give him that?"

Absolutely not giving Vladdy close to $40M a year. Mookie Betts signed a 12/$365 as a 27 year old a few years back and he was a vastly better player. Lindor signed 10/$341. Again, vastly better player. Vladdy is a bat-only player and that has a lot of value if he's smashing the ball which he is, but it will never compare to the top players. over the last 5 seasons, he's been the 42nd most valuable player in baseball. I don't see how you can pay that player one of the biggest contract in baseball.

Carlos Delgado accrued 44 WAR in his career. His age 25 season was his best at 126 OPS+.

I think Soto is in a different class. I would 100% take him over VGJ, but the list is pretty short of who is going to have a better 10-year stretch other than Soto.

Vlad plays a position they have need in. May be the best hitter the franchise has ever had, and isn't 26. I think the numbers are just lunacy...but that's the market rate. If the Jays are a serious organization I don't see why he isn't re-signed unless they don't like the makeup. What seems obvious to me after the Vernon Wells contract is that no contract is immovable. What Vlad is doing this year will rekindle belief in the player. He was clearly hurt last year, maybe into this year. The issue I have is: can he hit this way consistently or does his plate approach require him to keep his hands in positions that are going to lead to these fluctuations in production.

I think we'll see him crack 40+ HR going forward. I had him in the MVP discussion in my pre-season predictions and the last 6-8 weeks that's started to look less baseless.

Devers got 10/314 for his free agent years before his final year of arbitration, and he was coming off 2 better seasons than Vladdy will be barring an MVP-level 2nd half. That's the template.

Vlad is going to get around $25M in his final year of arbitration. The starting salary for an extension is going to have to be more than that. So if the Jays are prepared to offer him something like 10 years/$300M, then I think a deal probably gets done. If they want an AAV closer to $25M, then I think Vlad ends up going to free agency, which is probably the smart move on his part.

My gut tells me the Jays are going to overpay to keep him this winter. They need the good PR badly at this point.

The complicating factor is VGJ’s marketing/celebrity value over and above his on-field value. His agent will want his contract to reflect that (rightly so). Also, the Blue Jays arguably need Vladdy more than he needs the Blue Jays, because the team doesn’t have any other emerging stars in the minors, apart from maybe Nimmala, who is years away.

Agreed - the contract AAV should be in the $25-30m range. I don’t think he’s worth the higher end of that range but I could understand the need to pay it.

If Devers received a total of 11/$331m from Boston, and baseball inflation is around 5% per year, then an equivalent extension for Vladdy, signed in January 2025 (say), would be 11/$365m.

Devers had been a better player than Vladdy at the time of signing.

Watching Kirk pull ground ball after ground ball this season makes me somewhat optimistic that if they punted Mattingly and the rest of the “do damage” crowd that he might reverse some of his offensive decline. Kirk came up driving the ball pretty consistently to right center. He’s now trying to pull everything.

His 143wrc+ actually isn't far above his career average of 132.

But more than that, I think he legit rebuilt his approach this year, and while it took a while to get going, I think there's a decent chance he's back to being that 160+wrc+ type bat he was as a 21 year old. That's where he's been at consistently since the start of May, and everything looks more than sustainable since.

I'd be leaning towards a 10+ year deal for $300 mil for Vlad. I'd try for $250 first, then work up towards $300. He probably starts at $400 but I wouldn't go near that amount and if he insists he can go to the market and see that it isn't at that level for a 1B/DH who has a sub 150 OPS+ lifetime.

Rumor reported on the Athletic is that Bassitt could be traded. Giddy up!

Deferred money (as under Ohtani’s contract) might be a way to satisfy both ownership and Vladdy (who would get to announce a big number like $400m, notwithstanding that the actual number would be smaller).

Oh my goodness. Ray's are self destructing

If I’m Vladdy and this close to free agency then I see very little reason not to try the open market - I have very little optimism that the Jays extend him or Bo so please put Vladdy on the market for the future of the franchise - look at how the Soto deal is helping the Nationals rebuild.

The Nationals sold 2 years of Soto.
And now 2 years later they are 47-55.
They might actually be waiting out the Orioles with whom they share a market.

Guerrero would be of interest to a large market team who can't wait another year to bet on him.
Is there even such a thing?

Look at Boston, they got nothing for Betts.
They have 3 top 25 prospects:
Mayers, drafted 4th overall in 2021
Anthony, drafted 79th as a compensation pick on 2022 (Right after Toman and Doughty)
Teel, drafted 14th overall in 2023.

I don't care about beating Tampa who are .500 team and are not really trying at this point.
I'd like to beat the Rangers who are still in it because the division leading Astros are 53-49.
I'd like to keep Boston who are on the edge of the last wildcard out of it.

We win and Garcia gives up a run. Not a great outcome.

What did teams get?

• Soto trade #1: Robert Hassell III (AA, 738 OPS in RF not top 100), Jarlin Susana (A/A+ 4.48 ERA overall not top 100), CJ Abrams (6.5 bWAR over 2 years at SS, AS this year), MacKenzie Gore (2.6 bWAR SP, 96 ERA+ over 237 IP), Luke Voit (1/2 a season 0.1 bWAR left as free agent) and James Wood (0.1 bWAR, 85 OPS+ in LF this year, BA had him the #11 prospect in 2023/2024) - I'd say Washington did well on that trade
• Soto trade #2: Jhony Brito (94 ERA+ over 41 1/3 IP in the pen 0 WAR), Kyle Higashioka (111 OPS+ at C, 0.8 bWAR), Michael King (123 ERA+ in 118 IP as a starter, 2.4 bWAR), Drew Thorpe (137 ERA+ over 38 2/3 IP starting 1.1 WAR) and Randy Vásquez (97 ERA+ over 69 IP starting, 0.8 bWAR). Net 5.1 bWAR this year. NYY also got Trent Grisham (82 OPS+ in CF, 0.4 bWAR) with Soto (5.8 bWAR this year). Yankees win this year but easily should be in SD's favor as a long term thing.
• Betts: Jeter Downs (17 OPS+ as a Red Sox -0.6 WAR lost on waivers), Alex Verdugo (105 OPS+ 8.2 bWAR in the OF, later traded for 3 players to NYY) and Connor Wong (95 OPS+ as a C 4.2 bWAR over 4 seasons so far). Betts of course is a superstar who surpasses all of these guys by a mile each year.

The Betts deal was a flop by any measure (Verdugo and Wong both useful but nowhere near enough - Betts has 26.6 bWAR in LA already with a WS ring his first year there). The 2 Soto deals look good for everyone involved - he produced for everyone he played for, the teams dumping him got TONS of quality back. You almost never get a single player as good as the one you trade away, but you can get a lot of solid pieces and maybe even all-stars back. If Bo didn't play horrid this year and stayed healthy maybe the Jays would've dumped him this month and got a solid package, but now they won't. Vlad could get an amazing package but the Jays would face a fan revolt over it. Ask any casual baseball fan about the Jays and Vlad is who they think of first.

Wild game in Colorado in which the bench clear after Cal Quantrill reminds Reese McGuire what he's done wrong. Boston allows 20 runs. Did Quantrill signal a willingness to be traded to the Yankees?

Quick correction: Delgado's best was his age 28 season, with a 181 OPS+ and 7.3 bWAR. He (and Alex Rodriguez' 10 bWAR, 163 OPS+ season, as well as Frank Thomas) lost the MVP to Jason Giambi.

If and when MLB shifts back closer to the offensive numbers guys were putting up in 2003 (Delgado's age 28 season), I'd expect Vlad, (and to a lesser extent, a healthy Bo) to be right in the middle of this gauntlet of monster offensive seasons.

I just hope we see the return of the '19-22 Bo Bichette, whenever we see him again. The entire Shapiro era is seemingly riding on it.

There's no talk of the games still being played. Months of garbage time I guess.

Yariel was once again very good last night; outright dominant at times. If they're not looking to trade Bassitt, you could squint and see a scenario where the Jays are only looking for one starter in the off-season.

I think the off-season question for '25 (if indeed they are taking one last stab during the Vlad/Bo pre free agency window), is still the same as it was in '23 and '24 and it is.. where can a significant boost offense come from? Varsho is moving to centre, so logically you'd think it would come with the addition of a left fielder, since I don't see Springer there from right. Even with a healthy Bo and a version of George Springer closer to the last month of '24 than the first three, this FO cannot expect us to believe for second straight year that running a similar team back will magically boost the offense to where it can compete with the leagues best.
I think a strict platoon of Schneider and Horwitz at second would help the offense a bit, not exposing either of them to wear and tear or Horwitz to the power sapping lefty-lefty matchup. Schneider looks a bit more comfortable playing outfield, but I think he would benefit from being put in one position defensively.
You wonder if the Jays are sneaky interested in someone like Jazz Chisholm, who is only a year and a half removed from an .836 OPS all star season, with above average outfield defense who can also play shortstop. It would be a stealth move to pick him up at a deadline where the team is going to selling a few rentals, but everything we've been told is that they are looking at '25 and beyond and Chisholm would be an upgrade to what they have and fit the bill.

Yariel was good as was Green and Cabrera. Vlad, Horwitz and Turner also good on O. Nice that we won.

they ought to sign Soto, or at bare minimum make it painful for anyone in the division to do so. making sure he isn't on the Yankees gets you 6 or more wins closer without even doing anything other than bidding him up. making the already cash-strapped bombers unable to add around the margins at least creates the possibility that they will have some down years in 2028 when they already have over 100m tied up in 3 guys that will be over 36 in Judge, Cole, and Rodon. The year before you can add Stanton.

'Just rip the Band-Aid off and trade Guerrero': MLB insiders make the tough calls on teams ahead of the trade deadline.

Yeah, hey, if they want to make a run at Soto I won't complain. They should have their sales pitch all warmed up from having gone through it with Shohei last fall.

Just another reason to root hard for another second half Yankees implosion this year, the uglier it gets, the more he'll be turned off from the whole New York experience.

I think it's more possible they empty the already nearly bare cupboard in hopes of finding a couple more bats to help them go for it in '25. With a few exceptions, landing the big fish in free agency has not really been a Blue Jay staple. A big off-season trade? Yes.

Unfortunately the "bare" Yankees farm is far and away better than the Jays.

Danny Jansen has an OPS of .429 since June 1 but he is rarely mentioned as someone who has cratered hitting-wise.

The team has certainly noticed - Kirk has started 11 of the last 18 games. He's hitting .256/.289/.308 over that stretch but has 5 runs and 6 RBI, which is solid production from a good receiver.

On the bright side, it should be very easy to come to terms with Jansen this offseason if they want to bring him back.

The amount of baseball media (Passan, Rosenthal, and others) who are absolutely floored that the Jays are standing pat in order to compete in 2025 is very telling. Fans see it, media sees it, but the ones in charge can't/won't. Such a strange (and frustrating) spot to be in.

"The amount of baseball media (Passan, Rosenthal, and others) who are absolutely floored that the Jays are standing pat in order to compete in 2025 is very telling. Fans see it, media sees it, but the ones in charge can't/won't. Such a strange (and frustrating) spot to be in."

I think in a lot of cases, there's information we don't know as fans. For example, player A doesn't want to come to Toronto, Player B is a clubhouse cancer, etc...but there is nothing to not understand here. You can't be a 70-win team and get 90 wins next year without a massive influx of talent (which isn't coming). My only hope is that this is the Jays bluffing in order to get better offers. I mean, I'd be OK trading most of the guys in the off-season too where I don't think their value will be very different and there'd (hopefully) be a different GM in but trying to go with basically the same team into next year and pretending like the Jays are going to win isn't going to work. In some ways, that's why I don't mind the Jays losing now. You can win 79 games and say, well, we can win a few more if we get a little luck or add a piece but it gets harder and harder to do the more you lose.

Focusing on some positives - Springer, Vlad and Horwitz give me hope for 2025. I believe that the direction of this club for 2025 will depend on who is moved at the deadline from the pitching squad. If they are able to move Kikuchi, Bassitt or Berrios and Garcia then the team will be under the luxury tax and it will open $$$ for 2025 budget without going past the 2nd threshold penalty. It would give the team a decent offensive "base" to work from for 2025 plus some good trade capital and budget room. Here is what I mean:

Base:
Vlad
Springer
Horwitz

Fill in: Varsho, IKF, Kirk
Main Needs: power OF, power IF, power DH

Assets to Trade out in off season: Bo Bichette

Pitching Needs in this scenario would be:
Gausman
Berrios/Bassitt
Rodriquez
Need SP
Need SP


That would mean the front office would need :
* three power-centric bats
* 2 SP
* bullpen

They will have some type of minor league "back fill" and prospects from the deadline deals to help supplement the minors and major league team around the other fringe players like Varsho, Schneider, Clement, IKF etc.

If it was me I would punt on chasing Soto or any other star player in free agency and look to sign the likes of:

Christian Walker/Ryan O'Hearn for DH
Ha Seong Kim for SS
Harrison Bader for OF

I don't think Teoscar or Soto will be available to the Jays...


For free agent pitchers you sign:

Flaherty or Kikuchi
Max Fried or Shane Bieber


Gives you guys like Tiedemann and Manoah to move out at the deadline in 2025 for some stretch help

The Jays being focused on 2025 gives Atkins and Shapiro a chance to hang on to their jobs by blaming 2024 on bad luck. If it is a complete rebuild then at least Atkins would be gone.

"The Jays being focused on 2025 gives Atkins and Shapiro a chance to hang on to their jobs by blaming 2024 on bad luck. If it is a complete rebuild then at least Atkins would be gone."

Sure. For Atkins, it makes sense to try i guess but I get some bad luck if you win 82 games and almost make it or something but if you are one of the worst teams in baseball, I don't see how you argue that. Who is expected to be significantly better next season? Maybe Bo? I guess my question is who is buying the idea that the Jays can compete? Is it Rogers?

I kinda hope the Jays are bluffing about competing in 2025 to push up prices but that makes bidding wars more difficult and... frankly, I don't think Atkins could pull it off...

Besides Vlad, if you were the GM of a contending team...what would you give up of substance for any of Toronto's pieces? That's the the issue...there is no high end player in Toronto other than Vlad and if you trade him then you get what, a maximum of 3 good players/prospects coming back? The return on Vlad will be less than what Glasnow netted which is high upside OF and SP prospects MLB ready. That wouldn't leave the Jays in a good place for 2025 and beyond since the hardest thing to get in MLB right now is high OBP and power players.

I don't see any reason why the Jays can't compete in 2025.

They don't need players other than Bo to be significantly better. Pretty much the entire team is underperforming the expectations people on this site love quoting, and 15-20 slight improvements adds up pretty quickly.

Is there a single player outperforming expectations besides Garcia? Kikuchi, I suppose, but he's basically just maintaining the level he discovered in '23.

To me the clear need is to stop having crap luck. Bo sucking was 100% unexpected. Manoah finally looking decent again, then getting hurt wasn't expected (but not shocking). Springer using the wrong end of the bat for nearly half the season was very unexpected. Let's see how bad...

• Career Worst OPS+: Kirk (69 vs 92); Bo (70 vs 121), Kiermaier (53 vs 79); Springer (98 vs 102); Turner (100 is worst since 2013); Jansen (93 is worst since 2020); Biggio (77 vs worst of 84, now a 63 in LA); Vogelbach (65 vs 95 outside of 2 call ups as a kid, net 44 PA). Mix in Schneider dropping to a 97 from his 174 in 2023 and things suck.
• Career near Best OPS+: Vlad (141 is 2nd to only his '21 season), IKF's 115 is by far his best (next is a 93 in 2020); Horwitz 146 no one saw coming (I figured 120 as his best possible)

Basically we have 3 hitters having strong seasons, and 7 having nightmares (2 released) with an 8th having a worse than expected. I'd say Clement & Varsho are about where I'd have guessed (90's) while Barger has been worse (3), Jimenez about right (87)

For starters: best ERA+? No one will guess - Manoah at 111, Rodriguez next at 110, Bassitt 109. Berrios is down to 99 now, with 89's for Kikuchi and Gausman. Francis (70) and Richards (98) are both secondary (total of 5 starts between them).

Relief: Nightmares: Romano (63 ERA+ and injured), Pearson sucking (72 ERA+) but showing hope now and then, Mayza collapsed (51 ERA+ and released), Pop was flat (69 ERA+), Swanson had minor time (51 ERA+ but showing signs of recovery), White & Parson sucked and were released. Promising have been Garcia, Green, Cabrera, Little (well, sorta), and Burr - but we expect Garcia to be gone soon, Green maybe too.

So basically nightmares vs good is clearly in the nightmare category. I was surprised Kikuchi's ERA had flopped down to where it is now. Good luck to whoever trades for him, if anyone.

They don't even need to trade Vlad. If they want to keep him because of marketing or whatever, then just find a common ground and make an extension work. Chances are it will be a contract that the team regrets towards the back end of it (hopefully not sooner than that), but that's the cost of getting his prime years. The bigger issue is that they seem determined not to trade ANYONE signed through 2025, which is ridiculous, and shows a complete lack of foresight. Like I said, something as small as selling high on Bassitt would show that the FO is at least focused on improving the team both short and long term. Yes there is no guarantee that they will be able to replace those innings, but innings from a 36 year old SP on the last year of his deal on a team that will be coming off a last place finish by the start of next season isn't as important as the assets he might be able to bring back in a trade.

It's one thing if this was the first time they were doing this, but they literally acted the same way in July 2017, so it's the same FO making the same mistake for the same reasons. Definition of insanity. As others have said, I hope the 2025 stuff is a bluff to drive up trade prices. I don't think it is though, and it seems MLB media is just as perplexed as we are.

To be positive for a change I have been impressed with Leo Jimenez. He is very steady in the field and has decent at bats for a rookie.

I just read online that the Jays are apparently listening to trade offers for IKF (per Robert Murray). See, that's the type of trade the team should be looking into right now. Hopefully something comes out of that. IKF has been very good this season but he's the perfect guy to trade right now assuming the injury hasn't impacted his value too much.

SK, there are reports that they are listening to offers on IKF and Bassitt and other reports that they are now open to moving Vlad or Bo but only if someone backs up the truck.

Where are you reading that they don't want to move anyone signed past 2025?

So many people who needs their content read/watched means there is so much junk speculation out there. Really there is nothing we can take as truth other than what the FO has said publicly which itself is not likely to be true. They have said they believe in this team but also acknowledged that they will have to make changes if the team doesn't turn it around. Does "change" refer to selling off expiring contracts or more? We shall find out in the next 6 days. It's very likely that they do exactly what you would do in their shoes.

If they don't trade players signed through 2025 I don't believe it will be because they are married to these players but rather that the offers will not be strong enough to warrant the trade off.

Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned the Jays "are not shopping" Vlad, Bo, Gausman, Bassitt, etc in a recent article, while Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal alluded to them only wanting to trade rentals a day or so ago. Of course it's all speculation, and things can change in an instant, but given the history of this FO in situations like this, I'm leaning towards Passan/Rosenthal's viewpoint.

IKF really isn't an important piece for the success of the 2025 team. He's an overachieving utility player, so trading him if it gets them closer to getting below the luxury tax and gets them a useful piece for the future should be a no brainer. With Jimenez up and out of options next season, it makes perfect sense to make that move. Bassitt and Green will be harder to replace in 2025, which is why I suspect the FO won't move either of them.

They don't necessarily need to trade Vlad, Bassitt, IKF, etc this week. They can trade them this winter.

If the insiders don't understand that, maybe they need a new job.

I don't know when Vlad has more value. Maybe this winter, when more teams could be in on him? Bassitt likely has the most value now as teams will want pitching down the stretch.

I have no doubt they are listening to offers. Atkins loves to talk. We all fear the decision making process. I still shake my head over Derek Fischer. And McKinney, Drury, etc.

If I were in Shapiro/Atkins shoes my #1 goal would be to try and secure another contract extension and that means trying to contend in 2025, so I don't blame the FO for not doing an aggressive selloff.

PREDICTIONS

Justin Turner and Yusei Kikuchi to Red Sox
- return is SS Yoeilin Cespedes (TA 2028) and SP Wilkenman Gonzalez (ETA 2025)

Yimi Garcia, KK, Bo Bichette and cash to Dodgers
- return is C Daulton Rushing (ETA 2025) and SP River Ryan (ETA 2024)


That't it. Jays trade 3 veterans on expiring deals along with 1 core piece who they sell low on but they are able to get three solid MLB ready prospects along with a high upside prospect out of Boston. It gives them enough pitching for a rotation with back ups next year.

Gregor Chisholm in The Star today mentioned that he was hearing from a lot of season ticket holders that were not renewing and blaming the F.O. We know Dalimon is one of them.

Dylan Cease gets the no-hitter.

Yes there is a lot of us and we collectively refer to our old section (which we have been booted from) as the designated area for "Mark's friends." We were all moved back 10-15 rows and charged more money. We were given then chance to bid on our old seats but the price was more than double and you had to sign a three year deal with escalating prices...

Sign me up dalimon!

I think I'd be pretty happy with those deals if the Jays could do them dalimon5. Minimal loss, maximum gain.

Boston: Cespedes: 45 rating from FG, Gonzalez 40+ - not a lot but Cespedes is very young thus lots of projection still.
LAD: Rushing: 50 rating, LH hitting catcher - talk about ideal, listed as low risk. Ryan a 55 rated SP medium risk.

I'd be surprised if the Jays can convince LA and Boston to do those deals, but if so that'd be a fantastic return for 1/2 a season of those guys and 1 1/2 of Bo (given Bo wants out it seems).

They can't sell beyond rentals. They just (somehow) spent half a billion dollars on the dome. Speaking of which...how? I know what inflation is, but...putting in cup holders cost as much as digging the hole, pouring the concrete, getting the engineering on first of kind things like the roof....what? Someone really should ATIP request everything there. I smell something fishy. I suspect that oddly high valuation of the "renovations" has something to do with Rogers' tax obligations, more than the actual costs.

Anyway - if you want Shapiro and Atkins to sell high and rebuild you need to either extend their contracts first, or fire them and bring in someone else to run the shop. Shapiro can't admit that the team is going to suck next year...he spent money on renovations, and Atkins can't admit his team sucks or he's out of his GM role.

soupman - have you seen the renovations first hand or only from your television?


John, BOS has three SS in their top 7 prospect rankings so they may afford themselves the opportunity to sell one. Justin Turner has a lot more value on BOS's roster as they need a right handed bat and he was their clubhouse leader last year. LAD I don't think the Bo deal happens unless they strike out on Crochet/Urias or Skubal. They desperately need pitching down the stretch and have to be wondering what AJ Preller has planned for the deadline. If there is one guy who has the guts to do an overpay for Vlad it would be him.

Holy smokes I just looked up SD's prospects and talk about a perfect trade partner for Vlad...if only they didn't lose all of their TV income.


Salas
Snelling
Lesko
De Vries

4 top 100 prospects

I'll never understand why people are upset about the Derek Fisher trade. He was a good prospect who was doing well in AAA but more importantly, they gave up Sanchez, Biagini and Stevenson who had negative value. Sanchez was Making $4M a year and had an Era over 6. Biagini was bad for the previous two years and was also making $1M. Stevenson was a mildly interesting prospect. Overall, I'd say they traded pretty significant negative value to get Fisher. Like, the Jays have traded that package for nothing and still come ahead. The Drury/McKinney one I do unseratand because Happ had some value and should have returned something more interesting.

Fisher was 26 with three failed attempts with the Astros, parts of four years in AAA, poor defense and massive K-issues. But he had strong hard-hit rates...

Yes, he wasn't amazing or anything (super low baseball IQ too) but Jays gave up negative value, they weren't going to get back something valuable. I just don't get being upset about the Fisher trade.

I don't see much evidence the Jays have desirable assets to trade in the first place. Aging vets and underperforming young players, depleted farm system. I doubt there will be any winning for awhile.

Yeah there isn't a single player on this team that would be desirable to another team. Not one.

I’m curious to see whether any teams (Seattle?) make a huge bid for Vladdy. Seattle was willing to trade serious prospects for Luis Castillo a couple of years ago.

Now reported on MLBTRADERUMORS.COM that Gausman and Bassitt are staying put. Source is BNS which SK already alluded to here.

Good lord, 7-0? I guess I'm glad I spent my afternoon on Teams calls after all.

Kudos to Richard for showing just how much he wants to stay in Toronto, even if it is only for a couple more months. Not often you see that kind of loyalty to a city!

Alex Jackson was evidently not amused by the comments up-thread. 

TV watchers: did anyone mention the historical significance of the unlikely Jackson-Burr duel?

Add Pearson to the list of former top prospects that have failed to develop and progress. If there’s one consistent theme to the Jays current plight it’s that top talent in the minors hasn’t developed at the major league level.

The stagnation of Nate Pearson is not a happy tale for this team. Dude has no clue how to pitch, he’s just throwing and hoping it’s fast enough to fool dudes. I worry (similar injury history) the same will prove true for Ricky T.

It’s bleak and I’m in a horrible mood. I should just not watch baseball for a long time.

Seriously, what is wrong with this front office. This team is not going to be good next year. If the FO traded their valuable players, they could probably reset the organization in a few years (under a new front office). By holding on to their controllable players until the bitter end, they might be looking at a playoff drought of 5+ years. The cupboard is going to be bare after 2025.

I was baffled by Derek Fisher not because of who was traded for him, but because Atkins gushed over him afterwards. I think he went on about him being a 5 tool player. He didn't have any tools. Not even good defensively.

Well, this game makes my trip up north a bit easier - no wifi, just my cell phone with limited connection as I'm going west of Thunder Bay where Moose easily outnumber humans. Just glad to get any reception at all up there. So I'll pretty much be seeing scores a day or so later, miss any trades until after the fact. Might be good for recovery from this season - maybe a few players on the Jays want to go up there too :)

Yankees and Red Sox would be the biggest winners of a Jays rebuild.
They would be in the wild card automatically for the next 4 years.

Keeping losing this year will bring back more than trading Guerrero.
Richards is best buddy with Green. I guess he wants to finish the year here.
Nothing wrong with that.

All the latest rumours looks like posturing to me. Buyers are probably leaking fake info that they are looking at lower targets like James Taillon and Rich Hill to try to get the sellers to lower their asking prices while the sellers like the Blue Jays are telling reporters that they are not selling Gausman, Bassitt etc.

We will see who blinks first within the week...I definitely don't think this FO is going to hold onto much. It's all a facade imho.

"Fisher had been coveted by professional scouts for a number of years...the main impetus behind that has been his smooth, compact and effortless lefthanded stroke"

-perfect game-

"Fisher's impressive athleticism helps him maximize his tools. He has plus-plus raw power and has developed the ability to draw walks..."

-Baseball America-

"Fisher has tantalized scouts with his tools and frustrated them with his inconsistency since he was a (..) highschooler.  He delivered 43 homers and 59 steals while reaching AAA in his first 2 full pro seasons"

-mlb.com-

Atkins was not wrong.

I think the stated desire to compete next year is genuine

Fisher’s star had seriously faded by the time of the trade.

“It’s hard to find someone like Derek Fisher so we are elated to have added him,” Atkins told Scott MacArthur and Kevin Barker Tuesday during an appearance on Sportsnet 590’s Baseball Central. “You take a guy who has an above-average run tool, projects from our scouts and defensive metrics to be an average centre fielder, potentially plus on the corners, he’s going to be an effective baserunner because of the run tool, he has raw power, he has elite plate discipline.

“You piece all those things into one player, you don’t find that. That’s very difficult to find.”

He wound up playing 56 games for Toronto. 60 in total in the majors.

So you hate the trade because the GM didn’t manage your expectations?
It’s a post-deadline media hit, aimed at people who are general sports fans. This is what PR is. Every single professional sports franchise does this.

My brother convinced me to go in June when I was in town. Sat third base line. First game I've gone to in person since the bat flip. So I can't say that I have perfect memory of the stadium as it was despite having been to hundreds of games in person...but what they have done is uninspiring to me.

Did you see The Catch bar?

Did you see the TTC inspired food court behind CF?

Did you try sitting in the new first row seats in the bullpen area (free seats)?

Did you see the Batting Tunnel Club underneath section 125 which has views into the batting tunnel and private bars?

How about the new gourmet restaurant underneath the seats where Geddy Lee sits?

There is a lounge as well underneath that section. There's lots to see and if you write the renovation off as uninspiring AND question that the money was actually spent, well, maybe you haven't looked close enough.

Teoscar was very similar. Lots of tools, problems putting them together.
Things worked out for Hernandez. They didn't for Fisher.

Teoscar was projected to be an elite defender in centre.

Let's look at the mlb top 100 from 2015.

5. Addison Russell
9. Joey Gallo
10. Noah Syndergaard
11. Miguel Sano
15. Archie Bradley
17. Daniel Norris
18. Blake Swihart
19. Henry Owens
24. Robert Stephenson
26. Jesse Winker
27. Tyler Kolek
28. Alex Jackson
29. Alex Meyer
30. Mark Appel
31. Jameson Taillon
32. Jose Berrios
35. Eddie Butler
36. Kohl Stewart
39. Braden Shipley
43. Dalton Pompey
44. Aaron Sanchez
52. A.J. Cole
64. Reese McGuire
68. Aaron Judge
70. J.T. Realmuto
96. Rafael Devers

Chris Bassitt post game interview:

"There's a lot of demons in that dugout."

"I can't see how anyone can say anyone here has done what they should have done this year except Varsho's and his defense."

Wow. Damn. Listen to the comments and it sounds a hell of a lot worse after hearing it. Not just a bad team...sounds like a sinking ship and toxic environment.

I take management talking about players as spin so didn't care. Fisher was a worthwhile gamble and the cost was saving $5M a year for zero talent. As I said earlier, really hope this losing forces Shapiro or Rogers hand to make changes and stop pretending like this team is signing David Robertson away from winning.

What I like about baseball is how pastoral it is and I just go to watch a game and relax, maybe score it if I go solo. That's it. I don't want to mill about the halls or elbow my way to watch a bullpen session. All these new things, and the stadium still lacks charm and feels nothing like a "ballpark" to me. FWIW I say this as a stalwart Groucho Marxist who would never be a part of a club that would have me...so who are you gonna believe? Me? Or your own eyes?

Anyway: All these new attractions, and yet you have decided they aren't worth the doubling (!) of your bill for a worse seat. It certainly didn't make me miss living in Toronto, I'll tell you that. On the field was a good game, though.

For me it is the similarities between jazz, modern art and baseball that draws me in. The main reason I am folding my seats is because the view 15 rows back is a big downgrade to me and I'm better off watching from home. Previously my seats were great and I felt a part of the game with the view and the price was well below market value. I never paid more than $75/seat to sit 15 rows back from home plate and it was well worth it.

The renovations are geared to two crowds: corporate accounts and general public. The corporate accounts took over the 200 level behind home plate and the 100 level behind home plate up to where the first concrete barrier is. The public walk ins have been centralized to the OF seats which were previously unpopular. The middle crowd has been left with higher prices for marginal upgrade since they do not have access to the corporate benefit areas and are not interested in the social aspects of the "public" wall-up traffic.

Full quotes from Bassitt:

“I would say there’s not a single person in probably the whole organization that’s not disappointed right now. It just sucks. I don’t think anyone thought this is what’s going to happen,” said Bassitt.

When asked who the blame falls on for that, Bassitt said, “I don’t think there’s one person with clean hands right now — I really don’t. I don’t think we’ve done anything well this year.”

The bottom three on that list are embarrassing for whoever put together that list.

Have a good time up North John Northey, well deserved and don't worry the Jays calamity of a season will still be going strong when you return.

2yr stats at time of trade:

* B.McKinney (23) AAA: 458pa, 6.6b%, 22.9k%, .298babip, .265avg, .252iso, 130wrc+
* B.McKinney (23) AA: 295pa, 11.2b%, 16.5k%, .278babip, .249avg, .179iso, 108wrc+

* B.Drury (25) MLB: 537pa, 6.1b%, 21.4k%, .309babip, .258avg, .171iso, 88wrc+, 1.9war/650
* B.Drury (25) AAA: 235pa, 13.6b%, 24.7k%, .390babip, .291avg, .151iso, 142wrc+

* D.Fisher (25) MLB: 146pa, 8.2b%, 38.4k%, .274babip, .189avg, .189iso, 69wrc+, -0.5war/650
* D.Fisher (25) AAA: 551pa, 14.3b%, 27.6k%, .347babip, .268avg, .210iso, 119wrc+


McKinney was the most interesting because he was still actually prospect age, and he had a very nice 2yr power surge in AAA that looked like a possible power breakout. But it wasn't.

Drury was a bit interesting even though he was 25 because he at least showed enough defense to be a decent value player in MLB already, and had crushed it in AAA that year.

I forget - did we get tricked by the Yankees' AAA ballpark that year? were those AAA numbers just ballpark effects?

Fisher was looking pretty dud-dy by the time we got him. He had had an exciting year I think 3yrs prior but hadn't shown much over the last 2yrs when we got him.


Anyways, the big complaint back then was that we were trying to rebuild and we went for MLB-ready "prospects" instead of younger, higher upside actual prospects.

I expect we do the same this year. And every year really.

I'm sorry to hear that. Some of my fondest memories at skydome (autocorrect wants me to call it skydive, and I'm inclined to let it) are in those seats or near enough watching Doc deal.

I remember one of the games that rekindled my interest in the team (my family stopped watching baseball after the strike, but I continued to play until the end of high school) was an early season game in, I want to say 2005, where the Royals had Grienke going against Doc. Grienke was a player I was following because I had heard about the stuff he was packing, and sympathized with his battles with anxiety. I don't think I had mlb.tv yet, and I think all I'd seen was his BR page at that point.

...it was one of those games where you were worried the Jays were going to lose 1-0 - but they both went the distance and Doc came out on top. We were out of there before 9:30. to me...that's the gold standard of a game: well pitched, terrific play behind the pitchers...didn't matter who won, and let's be real: that was never going to be a playoff team, anyway.

even when the team isn't going anywhere, there should always be reasons to watch. right now that's watching varsho run balls down and watching Vlad hit. but...I'd be lying if I didn't admit that I miss our ace.

McKinney and Drury didn’t work out, but neither did the other prospects that were reportedly being considered at the time (German, Frazier, Sheffield).

Next time don’t trade with the Yankees (unless you’re getting a player like Michael King).

It still kind of bothers me that the Blue Jays helped out one of their main rivals by giving them a quality SP that year for a minimal return.

I'm fine with closer to majors if player is actual prospect. I even like post-hype prospects. I just don't like players that have had plenty of opportunity and just don't look like anything. Being 25 doesn't mean anything if you're not any good.

You forgot these:

“I don’t think there’s one person with clean hands right now. I really don’t think we’ve done anything well this year. Well, maybe (Daulton) Varsho’s defence.

“Besides Varsho’s defence, I don’t see how anyone can say ‘I’ve done what I should.'"

"It’s whatever it might be, giving up that many hits, not being able to hit and the trade deadline. Who’s going to be here, who’s not going to be here? There’s a million different things right now that are just not great."

“You have ideas of who’s not going to be around much longer and a lot of these people mean a lot to you so yeah, it’s not fun," Bassitt said.

For me this is what I'm watching for...

• Varsho on defense, Kiermaier to a lesser degree - the two of them are an OF combo we've never dreamed of before. Devo had Carter & Winfield & others around, Pillar had Bautista and others. Closest was 2015 early on with Pillar and Pompey.
• Vlad batting - when he is on he is so much fun to watch.
• Buffalo Bunch - Horwitz the star right now, Schneider could go into another launch pad stretch at any time, Clement hasn't been bad either. Jimenez is showing a lot too.
• Kirk - on defense he is fantastic, on offense not as good but fun to watch as he tries so hard. You can tell he wants to be great but it just isn't working right now.
• Rodriguez on the mound - there is something special there I think. I suspect in a few years we'll see his signing as one of the best moves by Atkins.

And that is about it for now. Bassitt when on is fun, same for Kikuchi, but neither should be here come August. Gausman used to be fun - he really shows why skipping spring is a bad idea. Berrios I tend to hold my breath with. The pen is not fun at all, with no one under 26 used all year so far so not even kids you can dream of.

They had Ricciardi on Jays Talk Plus.

"Fans don't want to hear about prospects, or hope, fans want wins."

Aj Puk to the Diamondbacks for the 14th and 30th prospect in the Snakes organization. Puk has been very strong this year and has 2 more years of control.

The 14th overall prospect has had a big year this year and seems to be a better prospect than Horwitz was. Makes me think the ceiling for a guy like Garcia would be a prospect outside the top 10 from the other team.

When did we start taking advice from Riccardi?

If I recall correctly, Jays fans were quite excited by the Vlad, Bo and Cavan as they came up.

O's fans are quite excited by their prospects.

It seems like a lot of rationalizations from a guy who failed due to his ability to identify prospects.

Anyway, the Jays dont have wins or prospects

JJ Cooper tweeted that De Los Santos and Pinter would have ranked 8th and 21st in the Diamondbacks system if the midseason update had come out.

As noted, Puk has two more years of control after 2024, so that return should dwarf what Garcia fetches.

I find it hard to believe the Jays are only 14th worse pitching staff at BB. It seems many players have lost the ability to throw strikes.

I did go to the first Tampa game (first Jays home game in decades) and there were lots of walks in that one too - but also the first and only back-to-back HR of the season for the Jays.

But yeah 27th in team ERA, 27th in teams runs scored, is not a good balance for a team.

The old Beane metric looked at HR and BB hit and allowed and the Jays offense is 27th in HR (only 94), 13th in BB (326); pitching is 17th best in BB allowed (317), 30th in HR allowed (138). It can't be park effect on HR when you allow the most in baseball, but are among the least productive at hitting them.

I agree that few players are really doing their job outside of Varsho's defense. Although Horwitz is another exception, and Vald is pretty close to one too. And IKF when healthy. Springer in the last month and a bit. That's not nothing, but it also isn't enough for a team that should be contenders.

But I understand not wanting to blow it up because you are unlikely to get enough back (you'd be selling low mainly on things that don't have enough value), and if you squint and imagine reversing the "luck" to have everyone near or slightly above career averages this does rate to be a playoff competitive team. The over/under line on the Jays in the preseason was 86.5 (and slightly more needing to bet on the over than under), and is there that much that suggests the core pieces in 2025 should definitely really be worse than what you'd expect in 2024? I mean maybe Bo Bichette has forgotten how to hit or be a major league player, but I think you'd expect his outstanding line in every season but this one to be more predictive of next year rather than this year. Same for pretty much everyone of the position players
(outside KK, Turner) and all the starting pitchers. Maybe some of the relievers/fringe pitchers are truly trash, but that should - in theory - be fixable in the offseason for lowish cost.

I forget - did we get tricked by the Yankees' AAA ballpark that year? were those AAA numbers just ballpark effects?

IIRC McKinney and Drury were harder to evaluate in 2018 because they both missed time.

McKinney actually injured himself by running into the outfield wall for the Yanks during Opening weekend in Toronto and wouldn't see the majors again until the Happ trade.

Billy was also traded an awful lot for a Top 100 1st round pick going from Oakland to the Cubs for Jeff Samardzija then to the Yankees for Chapman.

Drury had a very good season with Arizona, the was picked up by NYY but hardly played/didn't perform well because he suffered from migraines.

Trade from Tam-Sea:

Seattle Mariners receive: outfielder Randy Arozarena

Tampa Bay Rays receive: outfielder Aidan Smith (#12 Seattle prospect per MLB), right-hander Brody Hopkins (#22 Seattle prospect per MLB) and a player to be named later.

Arozarena is a very good player (career 123 OPS+ / a little over 3 WAR/year average) with 2 more years of arbitration after this year (currently making $8.1M), so that level of prospect is what you might get. I don't think any of the Jays people have been talking about trading are likely to get you that much in return (considering quality and contract cost/length) outside of perhaps Vlad.

Smith is their 4th round pick from last year. Technically, that's the equivalent of the QO compensation.

The Mariners have a deep system but they are also one of the team operating with a "payroll parameter". Arozarena was appealing because he only makes 8M.

I think the Jays would be looking for a 6th or 7th starter near AAA or a reliever with high velocity.
Those guys are not necessary ranked very high in a system.

A good example is the Rangers sending Roni Cabrera and Cole Ragans for Aroldis Chapman last year. Puk has a 4.30 ERA and has lost 8 games this year. Garcia has a 2.70 ERA and a 3-0 record this year. He could be a real difference maker in the postseason.

O's fans are quite excited by their prospects.

O's fans are quite excited by winning. The building was empty when those prospects were in the minors.

Maybe it takes a bit of luck for players to be healthy and produce near their career numbers.
It takes a lot of luck for prospects to turn into great players.
Many teams are not bouncing back from drafting high every year.
Jackson Holliday has had a tough start to his MLB career.
He's hitting .059 in 36 PA.

The early returns for Puk and Arozarena does not set a high enough bar for the Jays to get back better returns for Bassitt, Garcia, Bo or Kikuchi. What's more, the returns are focused on players further away from The Show. Too bad for this front office. Last year prices seemed too high to buy and now they aren't high enough to sell.

Don’t forget about the third prospect to be sent to Tampa — the PTBNL.

Tampa has used the PTBNL to good effect in the past (Shane Baz was the PTBNL acquired by them in the Chris Archer trade).

True but the fact is that these past two trades have been centered around prospects picked or valued around the same slot as the compensatory draft pick.

Don't expect big hauls for the Jays, I just hope they get some talent into the system. With the graduations of Horwitz and Jimenez, Jays system is probably bottom 5 in baseball.

Apparently the prospects are fast risers. And Tampa has had success targeting underrated prospects they have faith in. Rankings aren’t everything.

Well I don't doubt based on track record the Rays are quite likely to develop the prospects to be quality major league players - but how much of that is the inherent quality of the prospects and how much is that the quality of the development organization in Tampa? I have more faith that they'll develop into major league talent playing in Tampa than that they would playing nearly anywhere else including the Jays minor leagues.

I'd venture to say that the Jays development system seems more of an anchor than propeller for Jays minor league prospects.

I have an idea. Atkins could direct his staff to fly a drone over Tampa’s training facilities, video record their development techniques, and . . .

On second thought, scratch that. Bad idea

Aiden Smith is absolutely the prospect outside of their Top 5 that I would have targeted. Great job by the Rays.

Prospect rankings aren't very useful beyond a fun snapshot in general and there's a huge variance in how teams value players.

Regarding TB: They have traded V good players (in high demand) like Archer & B Snell which should and maybe did net them a few big wins. I don't believe that the Jays have traded as many "high demand" players. Stroman & Happ would be high demand and possibly a few others.

Toronto ownership and fans want to win/compete every year which is very different than TB. Trading Arozarena could be to save money for next year. I don't know.

I believe that some people heard that Shapiro said he wanted to do his rebuild earlier but was prevented by ownership. So blame ownership. This rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline. They kept R Martin but still promoted Jansen and McGuire. Also promoted was Gurriel and maybe others. Tellez.

I think Stroman was under control until after 2020 but I am not sure.

The very fast and successful rebuild (my interpretation) was accomplished by spending money. My feeling is that we have less money now due to Luxury Tax penalties and an already high payroll for a potential noncompetitive team.

IMO this trade deadline has to be evaluated in 1-3 years. Yesterday and today is too early for a decent evaluation.

I dunno, greenfrog. That's just the sort of thing that leads to a change in management...

For age and level, Smith is having at least as good a year as and tbh probably better than any jays prospect. Might well be a #1 prospect in our system.

Austin Hays traded to Philadelphia for Seranthony Dominguez and Christian Pache.

Interesting trade between two playoff teams.

I'd be ecstatic if the Jays could have acquired Smith. I think that's a great trade. That's exactly the level of creativity that the Jays FO is missing.

kind of a weird thought ... if Arozarena played for the Blue Jays would Atkins even trade him ? Wouldn't he be the number two in the lineup with two years of control and nobody in the system even close to being a replacement ... and yet ? Tampa Bay, 5 1/2 games closer to a wild card and how many more millions on the books? Oh! ... Sorry, just typing out loud

I don't think there's a chance that the Jays would have made that trade for all the reasons mentioned. You can argue that Arozarana is being traded "a year too early" based upon contractual status. I think the Rays have identified someone in the minors whom they like and is potentially undervalued and they've been prepared to take the plunge and move on from a good but not great player. It isn't without risk but I think its a fairly creative move.

The Rays are "forced" to do this because they can't afford good players in arbitration. He makes $8M this year which is borderline too much for them, he'll make more next year (while still being undervalued).