I figure this is what we are all thinking about with the Jays odds at FanGraphs for playoffs down to 1.1% now. (2.7% at Baseball Prospectus). So lets do a thread for just this.
The big questions are who can/should we trade and who is buying. Plus we need to factor in who else is selling and what can they sell? IE: If Kikuchi is the only LH starter on the market his value jumps, but if no contender needs a LH starter then it drops. Here are my thoughts on who is available, who is looking, and who else is selling and what they have/need.
Jays players available (Free agency post season listed)
Non-Contenders (7+ games out of playoffs, was going to make it 5 but heard Detroit thinks they can make it still). Note: Rangers within 5 of AL West title, but further out of the WC, and after last year they'll feel they are in it to the end.
The big questions are who can/should we trade and who is buying. Plus we need to factor in who else is selling and what can they sell? IE: If Kikuchi is the only LH starter on the market his value jumps, but if no contender needs a LH starter then it drops. Here are my thoughts on who is available, who is looking, and who else is selling and what they have/need.
Jays players available (Free agency post season listed)
- Starters: Kikuchi (2024), Bassitt (2025)
- Relievers: Garcia (2024), Richards (2024), Green (2025), Cabrera (2025), Swanson (2025)
- C: Jansen (2024), DH/1B: Turner (2024), CF: Kiermaier (2024), IF: IKF (2025), 1B: Vlad (2025), SS: Bo (2025)
Non-Contenders (7+ games out of playoffs, was going to make it 5 but heard Detroit thinks they can make it still). Note: Rangers within 5 of AL West title, but further out of the WC, and after last year they'll feel they are in it to the end.
- Angels 12 1/2: CF: Kevin Pillar 127 OPS+ and solid D as always, SP: Tyler Anderson (2025, 141 ERA+, 4.1 bWAR, damn good), Closer: Carlos Estévez (17-3 Sv-Bsv, 162 ERA+, 2024), RP: Hunter Strickland (121 ERA+ at age 35 but wild),
- A's 16 1/2: Nada that I see them trading - all good players have years of control
- White Sox 28 1/2: Erick Fedde (138 ERA+ over 111 1/3 IP, was negative WAR pre 2024, post 2025 FA), everything else is a 'yikes'
- Rockies: 15: Cal Quantrill (2025, 110 ERA+ over 108 IP, that's about it
- Marlins: 15 1/2: Closer: Tanner Scott (2024, 15-2 Sv-BlSv 339 ERA+, all star, but wild 5.4 BB/9). Team OPS+ of 76 - 'nuff said.
- O's: CF: Cedric Mullins 84 OPS+, 0 defensive WAR, could use an upgrade, but KK isn't it, 2 starters with ERA+'s in the 80's in Cole Irvin & Dean Kremer so will be hunting for starters, Irvin their only LHSP, pen a bit shallow.
- Cleveland: C weak (Bo Naylor 70 OPS+, Austin Hedges 16; 2B Andrés Giménez 81 OPS+, SS Brayan Rocchio 76 OPS+, certainly could use IKF. Rotation a mess, really could use Bassitt and Kikuchi. but very deep strong pen.
- Astros: 1B/LF have been messes all year, rotation weak, pen in good shape but like most could use more arms.
- Yankees: The Judge/Staton/Soto show and that's it on offense, rotation & pen have issues but no real space to add, can't see a match here.
- Twins: C: Vázquez 44 OPS+ yikes!, but Jeffers has a 117 so not a disaster, but potential. Just 2 starters all year have ERA+ over 100, so desperate there I'd think. Pen looks strong.
- Royals: Weak at 1B/DH, 3B, OF. Solid rotation, decent pen but not 'wow'. Could use Green in pen, IKF in infield, maybe a spot for Turner.
- Red Sox: Poor at 1B/DH, but Refsnyder might be fixing one of those. McGuire is their backup catcher. 3 solid starters - rest I wouldn't trust.
- Mariners: Poor offensively nearly everywhere but C. IKF would be a dream here. Solid rotation & pen - getting good results from Thornton & Saucedo(!) but could really use Garcia or Green.
- Phillies: Very weak in CF with Rojas (60 OPS+ barely over 0 for WAR) but is a kid so might want to leave him there. Solid top 4 rotation but injury issues killing the 5 hole. Pen has holes that Green or Garcia would fill nicely.
- Dodgers: Lux flopping at 2B thus why they want to move Betts back there once healthy, thus why they have interest in Bo. Rotation buried in injuries with Yamamoto out until late August at best. Solid deep pen.
- Brewers: Weak at 1B/DH, 3 solid starters then injury issues - so another possible home for Kikuchi & Bassitt, Pen solid but injuries too so might want more depth (could be a home for Richards, cheap and eats innings)
- Atlanta: Arcia not hitting at all at SS, 2 injured OF, strong rotation & pen.
- Diamondbacks: lineup solid, rotation super messed up with just 2 decent guys. Pen holding it together but for how long when the rotation is a mess?
- Padres: weak pen, lots of 'meh' in the lineup right now with Bogaerts sucking hard at 2B.
- Pirates: CF hitting worse than KK (wow), #1 C has a 44 OPS+ but backup doing really good now (126 OPS+, lifetime 84 so won't last), rotation has 2 on IL, 1 with a 74 ERA+, plus some pen issues (Chapman walking 8.1 per 9 IP for example).
- Giants: weak at 1B/DH and SS, rotation a mess with Snell at 62 for ERA+, pen reasonable.
- Cusp teams who could swing either way - Rays, Cubs, Reds, Washington - all might go for it, or might say 'not our year' and only do minor deals (ie: could take Richardson if costs only his salary and a 35 prospect) or could just say 'screw it' and start dumping. I expect these teams to do nothing.
