Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - The Gruesome Entrails

And you may ask yourself,
"Well, how did I get here?"

Cast your mind back, back, back... to one month ago. The 16th of June, to be precise (also known as Bloomsday to Joyceans like myself.)

The Blue Jays were beginning to show tentative signs of what passes for life this season. They had appeared - or so we thought, in our innocence - to have bottomed out in late May, after losing three in a row to the Tigers, the last in especially gruesome fashion. The team was in last place with a 23-29 record.

Then they started winning. They went 12-7 over the next 19 games, which may not sound like all that much, but win at that rate for six months and you will win 100 games. They crawled back to within a game of .500 at 35-36, with 25 games left before the All-Star Break. Another month of decent play - 15-10 would have been just swell - and the second half might actually get interesting.

They hadn't been hitting at all, even while they were fighting their way back in the general direction of respectability, and changes were being made. Cavan Biggio and Daniel Vogelbach were sent packing. Spencer Horwitz replaced Biggio, and immediately started hitting. And finally, two of the team's most important players got hot. The team had been scoring a pitiful 3.84 runs per game during their run of decent play in late May and early June. Horwitz, Geuerrero, and Springer (with help from Kiner-Falefa before he hurt his knee) carried the offence pretty much by themselves and the team scored 4.48 runs per game over those 25 contests before the Break. A league average offense! Progress!

Player               G    PA    AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  GDP  SB  CS  BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS 
                                                                                    
Isiah Kiner-Falefa  12    51    45   13   18   1   0   3   6    0    6    1   0   0  .400  .451  .622   1.073  
Spencer Horwitz     24    90    75   10   24   4   0   4   8   10   12    2   0   0  .320  .422  .533    .956   
George Springer     25   100    90   12   27   7   1   5  19    8   18    6   1   0  .300  .364  .567    .930   
Vladimir Guerrero   24   105   100   16   30   8   0   7  25    2   14    4   0   0  .300  .314  .590    .904   
Alejandro Kirk      14    53    45    6   14   4   0   0   8    5    8    1   0   0  .311  .359  .400    .759  
Ernie Clement       20    71    69    6   19   4   0   3  12    1    6    2   1   2  .275  .282  .464    .746  
Justin Turner       19    81    64   10   16   3   0   1   8   13   17    3   0   0  .250  .395  .344    .739  
Davis Schneider     22    65    59    6   11   1   0   2   3    6   24    0   0   0  .186  .262  .305    .567  
Kevin Kiermaier     21    60    57    8   10   1   0   2   9    3   20    1   1   0  .175  .217  .298    .515  
Daulton Varsho      21    78    69    6   10   1   3   0   3    8   28    0   2   1  .145  .234  .246    .480 
Danny Jansen        16    54    48    5    7   1   0   1   1    5   16    1   0   0  .146  .241  .229    .470  
Bo Bichette         12    51    45    7    6   3   0   0   2    5   18    1   1   0  .133  .216  .200    .416 
                                                                                    
Addison Barger      13    37    35    3    5   2   0   0   2    1   10    0   0   0  .143  .167  .200    .367
Leo Jimenez          8    27    22    4    8   2   0   0   1    3    6    2   0   0  .364  .482  .455    .936
Steward Berroa       5     4     4    0    0   0   0   0   0    0    0    0   0   1  .000  .000  .000    .000
Brian Serven         1     3     3    0    1   0   0   0   0    0    0    0   0   0  .333  .333  .333    .668   
Orelvis Martinez     1     3     3    0    1   0   0   0   0    0    1    0   0   0  .333  .333  .333    .668

Alas, the team which regarded its basic strength as run prevention would give it all back, and then some, on the other side of the ball.

The Jays had gone on their modest 12-7 run despite their lamentable offence entirely on the back of their pitching, especially from the starters. Alek Manoah's injury turned one spot into a bullpen day for a few weeks, but the other four starters picked up the slack and the bullpen held it together. During this period, Erik Swanson was sent to AAA and Jordan Romano went on the IL, but everyone else (with the exception of Zach Pop, as always) was just fine. Even Nate Pearson! Even Tim Mayza, almost.

In those 19 games, the Jays allowed just 3.42 runs per game.

Player            G  GS  W  L  SV    IP    H    R  ER  BB  SO  HR  ERA    BF   BAVG   OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                                        
Kevin Gausman     4   4  2  2   0   26.2   23  10  10   3  22   4  3.38   104  .228  .250   .436   .686
Chris Bassitt     4   4  2  0   0   23     22   4   4   7  26   0  1.57   102  .244  .327   .267   .593
Jose Berrios      4   4  1  1   0   24.2   25  10  10   4  12   4  3.65   100  .266  .300   .404   .704
Yusei Kikuchi     3   3  2  1   0   16.1   16   7   6   6  15   2  3.31    69  .267  .328   .417   .745
Alek Manoah       1   1  0  0   0    1.2    1   0   0   0   3   0  0.00     6  .167  .167   .333   .500
                                                                       
Bowden Francis    3   1  1  0   0   11.1   12   4   4   1   7   2  3.18    47  .267  .298   .467   .765
Trevor Richards   7   2  1  0   0   11      5   2   2   3   8   0  1.64    41  .135  .200   .162   .362
Nate Pearson      9   0  0  0   1    1.1    7   4   3   2  12   2  2.61    40  .189  .225   .351   .576
Zach Pop         10   0  0  1   0    7.2    6   6   6   4   6   1  7.04    32  .214  .313   .393   .705
Yimi Garcisa      8   0  2  0   3    8      7   5   5   1  12   2  5.63    32  .233  .281   .467   .748
Genesis Cabrera   7   0  1  1   1    8      6   5   4   2   5   0  4.50    30  .222  .300   .259   .559
Brendon Little    6   0  0  0   0    7.1    7   2   2   1   5   1  2.45    29  .250  .276   .357   .633
Chad Green        8   0  0  1   0    7.2    3   1   1   2   5   1  1.17    27  .120  .185   .240   .425
Tim Mayza         7   0  0  0   0    5.2    5   3   2   2   2   1  3.18    24  .238  .292   .381   .673
Ryan Burr         2   0  0  0   0    3.1    2   1   1   1   3   1  2.70    13  .167  .231   .500   .731
Jordan Romano     1   0  0  0   0    1      1   0   0   0   1   1  9.00     4  .250  .250  1.000  1.250
Erik Swanson      1   0  0  0   0     .1    2   1   1   0   0   1 27.00     3  .667  .667  1.667  2.334

That is, of course, pretty much what you have to do when you're only scoring just 3.84 times, and no team in the majors has managed to prevent runs at such an exceptional rate this season. But for a moment, the Blue Jays were doing it.

It was all much too good to last, and in the final game against Cleveland, Yimi Garcia's elbow gave out. Within two weeks, the team's four best relievers from the previous season were all out of the picture - two were on the IL, and two had been removed from the roster because of general incompetence. What was left was in no way able to pick up the slack when three starters - Berrios, Kikuchi, Gausman - chose this particular stretch of the season to go bad.

Here is how they pitched in those 25 games.

Date                G    GS   W    L   SV    IP    H     R    ER   BB  SO  HR HBP    ERA    BF   BAVG   OBP   SLG     OPS
                                                                            
Kevin Gausman       5    5    2    3    0    29    30   20    18   11  29   6   1    5.59  133   .248  .316  .446    .762
Chris Bassitt       5    5    2    1    0    29    31   12    11   13  25   1   1    3.41  128   .272  .352  .342    .694
Yusei Kikuchi       6    6    0    3    0    28.2  36   24    24    7  41   9   1    7.53  128   .300  .344  .558    .902
Jose Berrios        5    5    2    2    0    27    27   21    21   11  22   7   6    7.00  124   .257  .358  .476    .834
Yariel Rodriguez    4    4    1    2    0    18     9    8     7   10  20   1   0    3.50   71   .150  .268  .283    .551
                                                                            
Trevor Richards    12    0    1    1    0    14.2  12   11     8    4  14   2   0    4.91   61   .211  .262  .351    .613
Bowden Francis      8    0    0    0    0    12.2  13    9     7    6  10   2   0    4.97   58   .255  .328  .412    .739
Chad Green         11    0    1    1    4    10.2  10    3     3    5  12   2   1    2.53   47   .250  .340  .450    .790
Genesis Cabrera    11    0    0    0    1     9.2   7    1     1    3   8   1   1    0.93   40   .194  .275  .361    .636
Zach Pop           12    0    0    2    0     9.2  12   10     8    7   6   3   1    7.45   49   .293  .408  .537    .945
Nate Pearson       10    0    0    0    0     9.2  16   10    10    3  16   4   0    9.31   47   .364  .404  .773   1.177
Brendon Little     11    0    0    1    0     9.1   7    4     4    4   8   2   0    3.86   39   .212  .297  .394    .691
Tim Mayza           5    0    0    0    0     3.1  11    9     9    2   1   0   0   24.30   23   .550  .565  .700   1.265
Ryan Burr           4    0    0    0    0     4     3    2     1    1   4   0   0    2.25   16   .200  .250  .267    .517
Jose Cuas           3    0    0    0    0     2     3    3     3    1   2   1   2   13.50   12   .333  .500  .667   1.167
Brandon Eisert      1    0    0    0    0     2     1    0     0    3   0   0   0    0.00    8   .200  .500  .200    .700

Over those 25 games, the Blue Jays allowed 147 runs - that's 5.88 per game - which is about as bad as it's possible to be. And that's all she wrote.

Posted by Magpie on Wednesday, July 17 2024 @ 04:00 PM EDT.

The Gruesome Entrails | 65 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 17 2024 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#449566) #

No point getting depressed about it...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z84rtbVbIEQ&pp=ygUXb25jZSBpbiBhIGxpZmV0aW1lIHJvbWU%3D

SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 17 2024 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#449567) #

"They crawled back to within a game of .500 at 35-36, with 25 games left before the All-Star Break."

The 2017 team also scratched and clawed after a bad start to finally get to one game under .500 in mid-June. Their record before things unraveled? 35-36.

The entire season so far, and off-season leading up to it, has felt eerily similar to 2017. The trade deadline probably will as well. On the plus side, I guess this means the Jays will trade for the next Teoscar Hernandez, so we have that to look forward to.

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 17 2024 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#449574) #

Had Swanson, Romano and Garcia all been returning post all-star break, I'd still have a glimmer of hope that September would still be meaningful (Jays were 11.5 out at the break in 1998 and closed to within 3.5 of the wildcard at one point vs a Boston team that won 95 games).

However. the last road trip proved that Pop, Pearson and the "supporting cast" couldn't even come close to plugging the hole, and a potentially season flipping 9-2 west coast road trip became 6-5. Now the Jays need a miracle. What would it take on this homestand for the team not to sell. 7-2 at minimum? 8-1 wouldn't even get them back to .500.

Ducey - Wednesday, July 17 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#449575) #

Kikuchi will be traded. That will leave them with Bassett, Berrios, Gausman, Rodriguez, and pray for rain.

Garcia and Richards will be traded, leaving a massive hole in the bullpen.

Maybe Bo will pull his head out of his butt, and maybe the kids play well, but that will be it for the positives, I am afraid. At least until next years draft.

I'm looking forward to the possibility they bring in someone interesting in the trades

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 17 2024 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#449576) #

The front office's goal seems to be to compete most years (if only for the third WC spot), supported by a perennially robust farm system. They've failed to achieve that goal in 2024. But I think it will take a lot for them to deviate from that overall strategy, especially after the RC renovations and increased ticket prices. And (as UO has pointed out), Atkins and Shapiro have a pretty high opinion of their own abilities to improve the team.

All of which makes me think they'll stick to that game plan this month by trading the pending FA trade chips, while holding on to the core pieces that could help the team compete in 2025.

bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#449577) #

Well said greenfrog. So no long rebuilds is implied.

One thing that many of us are not factoring into this philosophy is the Luxury Tax penalties. My respect for the opinions of da Box has caused me to change my mind. So I now believe the Luxury Tax implications are of minor concern to this FO. But as usual they have not addressed this issue.

99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#449578) #

I am hoping for some buying and selling. More Teoscar-type trades, where possible. Or even selling several pieces and using those returns to get a controllable piece.

Lottery tickets are good too, but my strong preference would be to buy and sell so the team can stay in a good position for next year

Glevin - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#449579) #

"The front office's goal seems to be to compete most years (if only for the third WC spot), supported by a perennially robust farm system. They've failed to achieve that goal in 2024. But I think it will take a lot for them to deviate from that overall strategy, "

I think this is the strategy of like 25 teams in baseball because it makes sense. The extra wild card has really changed things and it was already mostly about making the playoffs before that. The last 3 world Series have had teams with 84 wins, 87 wins, and 88 wins. Marginal wins just aren't really worth going for the same way. It is a good goal and this front office's failure to develop pitching has been a huge failure. Jays have signed very good free agents but had Jays been able to develop starters better, they could have allocated money very differently.

Jays hitters developed: Vlad, Bo, Horwitz, Kirk, Jansen, Schneider, Gurriel, as well as some interesting prospects in AAA like Jimenez and Barger. That's pretty decent. Pitchers developed is very different. Manoah, Romano,....Pearson? it's feeble. I am hoping with this draft and with guys eventually coming back from TJ, in a couple of years, it will be a different story. On paper, Tiedemann, Bareiera, Macko, Maroudis, Rojas, Yesavage, Stephen, and King should develop a couple of major leaguers.

Glevin - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#449580) #

I get the feeling Jays will replace Atkins in the off-season which I am fine with for a couple of reasons.
1) Front offices are not dictatorships. Moves are collaborative . Firing Atkins now wouldn't really change anything. Jays can just make someone like Click more involved behind the scenes if they want.
2) The Jays wouldn't be able to hire someone new until off-season anyway. It takes time to know the system and players and staff.

The luck of this season is summarized for me by how awful Bo has been. Almost every legit contender needs a SS (Dodgers, Braves, Guardians, etc...) and if Bo were as good as he was in any other year, he'd get back a king's ransom but he's turned from a 4-5 WAR player into a 0 WAR player and one that looks like he doesn't care so Jays can't really trade him.

85bluejay - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#449581) #

"THE SELLOFF", starring Ross Atkins and the usual suspects, coming to a screen near you. Don't miss it! Critics call it the best comedy show of the year.

uglyone - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#449582) #

I was already frustrated by the "just need to compete" approach, but the one upside of that approach was supposed to be avoiding the hopeless feeling about both the present and future that we're all feeling right now.

SK in NJ - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#449583) #

If you asked the FO and they were brutally honest with you, I think they'd tell you that Bo having a bad year is one of the positives of the current situation, not bad luck. There is no doubt in my mind that the Jays were not going to trade Bo under any circumstances this trade deadline. Their goal is to compete in 2025 and he gives them the best chance to do that. The optics of Bo having a 4 WAR season and the FO keeping him for 2025 would have (rightfully) been awful. Now they can hold on to him, pencil him in at short in 2025,and the narrative will be "he had a bad season so they had to keep him".

The best way to test my above theory is to see what the FO does with Chris Bassitt. Whether the team wants to compete in 2025 or not, selling high on Bassitt is the most logical decision a team in the Jays position can make. He's pitching really well and has one more year of control after this, plus moving him can put them comfortably under the luxury tax and will give them an additional $21M to spend this winter (plus whatever they get in return for him). There is no performance or health issue here. He's not only performing well, but he's durable in an era in baseball where that's a rarity. He's an ideal sell high for a team in the Jays current position.

But I think we all know what the end result will be. He will be kept for the 2025 run that the FO has no choice but to dream on because Shapiro's deal ends after 2025 and he has no reason to think about beyond that. If the Jays do pull the trigger on trading Bassitt this month, then I'll gladly admit I was wrong, but I think we have seen this FO operate for long enough to be able to predict their course of action.

99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#449584) #

Don�t agree with that logic, SK. Trading Bassitt is a sign they�re ok taking a step back next year, not that they�re serious about staying competitive.

I agree that Bassitt would bring back a good haul, but he�s probably been their best starter this year. Moving him doesn�t help them compete. Yes they could potentially free up $21M of money, but they would have to replace his production as well. I think they would be hard pressed to do that with the money/prospects on hand.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#449585) #

My opinion on what the club ought to do with the management team is sullied by confirmation bias. So I won't give it.

My pleasure in watching the club comes not from the veterans, and not from the marquee players, but the up-and-comers. It's been a hard road for them, as most of them were not given opportunities that they might have had but for the pandemic. And yet, a number of them are succeeding and universally not complaining about their limited roles Hats off to them whether they succeeded or not.

Ducey - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#449586) #

I agree with you SK.

Bassitt is going to be 36, and while he may keep on trucking using vaseline and gile, its more likely he will start to fade soon. It's clear he was struggling with some kind of neck thing for much of this season

And this team will not contend next year. Anyone who believes it's easy to make the playoffs isn't paying attention to the -60+ run differential and the fact that the Jays are right there with the teams that are not trying. Trying to fill 2 rotation spots, a brand new bullpen, and resuscitate an offense that has been terrible for 2 yrs simply isnt going to happen without a good farm system. This one has little to offer.

So trade him now, when his value is as high as it will ever be. With any luck they get a guy who will make a difference in 2 or 3 years.

To me the choice is simple, stay the course, which means a 10% chance of making the playoffs and 0% of winning it in 2025, followed by a mess of a team in 2026/27. Or tear this thing down and have the pieces starting to bubble up in 2026. I'll take door number 2.

Glevin - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#449587) #

Absolutely, I'd be trading Bassit too. Pitchers are harder to fill so even as a rebuilding team, you need to have guys who can throw innings. For me, I'd look at 2026 as the year to try to compete again and anybody who doesn't fit into that, you should be looking to move. Try to extend Vlad and if he doesn't want to sign for a reasonable deal, then move him too. You don't want or need one of those miserable five years of sucking situations, but you can't be losing future assets to pretend to compete when you have no shot.

85bluejay - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#449588) #

Agreed, 2026 is the year to shoot for - put all potential 24 & 25 free agents on the market. Unfortunately, I expect a sheepish sell off and pretend reload for 2025 with likely the same results.

Ducey - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#449589) #

Good article on the Jay's deadline options, noting the CBT ramifications

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#post-817318

John Northey - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#449590) #

I think deals count on a lot of factors we can never know - how desperate are some teams? What other players are available at what prices? I think most if not all ML teams are smart enough to know the Jays pitchers have better stats on the surface than their real skills thanks to our strong defense. That jumps the value on the surface of Kikuchi and Bassitt, but smart teams know that both aren't as good as they look.

fWAR gives an idea on this - Bassitt 2.0 fWAR 3.52 ERA vs 4.24 xERA/xFIP - you have to go to #40 on fWAR to get as bad a xFIP as Bassitt. Basically anyone trading for him has to expect him to not pitch as well for them as he does here.

Kikuchi: #27 for fWAR, 4.42 ERA, 3.35 xFIP - weird, not what I expected. Guess he is getting unlucky in grouping of hits and the like. Hrm, that kind of messes up my narrative but I'll be honest and not switch my earlier words here.

The two of them - Kikuchi and Bassitt - have very different effects from xFIP vs ERA. So do other teams factor that in or do they use a more complex system to see how each would likely do with their teams defense? How big does Kikuchi having meltdowns after 4 beautiful innings factor in? Bassitt I thought would be impressive with his ability to go deep but checking it he only went 6+ 9 of 19 starts so far this year, but just twice sub 5. Kikuchi has 9 starts of 6+ as well over 20 starts, but 6 of under 5 IP (4 of 6 were 4+). Both have to be on the market, but I'd be demanding more for Bassitt due to 1 1/2 years of control vs 1/2 a year. Gausman is having a down year (4.50 ERA 3.71 xFIP) but if someone is willing to overpay based on 2022/2023 instead of 2024 then I'd take it. But only on a serious overpay.

Richards ERA 3.62 xFIP 4.28, Garcia ERA 2.57 xFIP 3.28 - that is more the effect I was expecting. That the Jays strong defense would push their ERA's down a bit.

Jansen is a different bird - being a hitter instead of a pitcher. His offense is down from earlier, but still looks good on paper, especially with his strong recent past. But how much can you get for him? Guess we'll see.

For all of these guys if the Jays get 1 solid near ML prospect who can produce in the ballpark of what these guys normally do I'd be happy (2+ WAR a year) and anything beyond that is gravy. Chasing top 100 prospects - hopefully getting 1 or 2 (or more) out of this and that'll be great too. IIRC draftees can be traded now right after they sign instead of a 1 year wait as in the past (can't find anything to confirm this or deny it though).

Gerry - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#449591) #

The CBT ramifications are interesting. The Jays can get better players in return if they eat salary. But eating salary has a financial costs.

Edward Rogers has a decision to make, does he prioritize players or dollars.

scottt - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#449592) #

Trading for prospects doesn't make the team competitive in 26.
Nobody is going to trade guys who are All-Star caliber and that close to the show.
In 2026/2027 they would have only guys who are in the system now.

For example, the Jays got Chapman for Hoglund, Zach Logue, Kevin Smith and Kirby Snead.
Hoglund was the main piece, he got traded in 22 and could debut in 2025, but he'd be closer to 20 innings than 200.

The got Berrios for Austin Martin and Woods Richardson in 21.
Martin debuted in 24, he's an average hitter but a terrible defender.
SWR threw 5 innings in 22, 4.2 in 23 and is at 82 right now.

Bassitt was very expensive. He cost a second round draft pick--one reason the Jays system is ranked low. They won't be signing guys like that to replace him if they don't believe the team can contend. Many teams would be interested in getting him, especially if the Jays eat some of his salary which mean they wouldn't be trying in 25.
I don't think the market for pitcher is great this winter.

They could trade Bichette now or they could bet that he plays better on his walk off year.
The difference for Bichette is a large contract or a pillow contract in 2026.
He should be either on the team or added to the IL tomorrow.

Jansen is at 100 OPS+.
Kiermaier is at 52 and won't be back next year.
Springer is at 92 and looks like he has bounced back.
Turner is at 95 and should be traded soon.
They get another shot at finding a LF/DH bat.
And then they need to remake the pen.
I wouldn't be surprised if some of the guys coming back in trades are bullpen options for next year.

pooks137 - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#449593) #

Edward Rogers has a decision to make, does he prioritize players or dollars.

From MLBTR

Perhaps more importantly, if they signed a player in the offseason that had rejected a qualifying offer, they would face�a lesser penalty�by avoiding the tax. A tax-paying club surrenders $1MM in international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next draft when signing a QO player. Avoiding the tax changes that to just $500K in bonus money and just the second-highest pick.

They would also increase what�they receive�if a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. Tax payors receive a pick after the fourth round if a QO player signs elsewhere, whereas it�s the start of the third if they avoid the tax. The Jays have a couple of potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi but the QO consideration would be moot if they get traded.They would also increase what�they receive�if a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. Tax payors receive a pick after the fourth round if a QO player signs elsewhere, whereas it�s the start of the third if they avoid the tax.

It's a little unfair to accuse Rogers of wanting to dump salary to get under the luxury tax just for being cheap when there are baseball reasons for doing so.

The problem is that it's an all-or-none gambit. If they can't get under the 237 mil luxury tax threshold this year, it does make more tactical sense to eat salary in 2024 for better prospect returns.

christaylor - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#449594) #

10% and 0%? I hope you don't have a bookmaking gig on the side.

On June 1st of this year the Jays playoff odds were in the 20% range. IIRC only IKF and Manoah in the BP autopsy had best their 50 percentile projections.

This season has been dreadful and the run differential is terrible but even just selling off Kikuchi and spending next offseason the odds (who as John discovered FIP likes because of the K rate) preseason should be better than 10% for the playoffs.

This thread is very doomerish. I agree with Mike Green let's watch the kids. Any deadline deals or off-season trades depend on another team saying yes. Only they know what they'll pay and even then someone could cry in the OF and a deal not happen (hat tip to the Athletic article on the reminder of Mets deadline year).

The game is human and the fog is thick. I think there's at least a 10% chance the Jays finish 500. Peak at how many losses were to .500+ teams (43).

Aside from rooting for the kids, I am rooting for Bo to remember that he knows how to hit. If that happens I don't care if he's traded or not, but at least it'll give hope for 2025 or a decent return for a 2026 player. Vlad will work himself out, he's the best 1B in the AL and the face of the team. Enjoy him while he continues to develop.

SK in NJ - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#449595) #

Seems very unlikely they can get under the tax if they are only trading pending free agents, especially since 2 of the 6 likely have less than zero value at their remaining salaries (Kiermaier and Turner). They will either have to pay the tax or trade someone who is controlled beyond 2025, which they seem reluctant to do. If they are prepared to pay the tax and face the penalties for doing so, then I agree, eat as much money as possible and get a better return.

christaylor - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#449596) #

Well posed scottt.

Your post does raise a question in my mind. If in a world where the Jays were buyers, what type of player do you think Horowitz would net?

To make this more concrete let's say he was putting up a little worse numbers than he is now in about the same playing time because KK was injured (probably).

If you really want a tear down and rebuild, why not sell Horowitz? He's too old to be a prospect and could help most AL teams at 1B.

Vladdy is younger sign him and trade Horowitz. Let the rebuild begin!

85bluejay - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#449597) #

The Kiermaier waiver indicates to me that the Jays are going to make a determined effort to get under the tax threshold - which means not eating money for a better return.

John Northey - Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#449598) #

Good point 85bluejay - wondering if the Jays might package a few players together to try to clear salary and get nearly zilch in return (35 quality prospects).

Player: amount of luxury tax hit in 2024, Jays have 40% of the season left roughly, 11 games by July 30th 6 PM (trade deadline). So minimum saved would be 34% of a players hit for 2024 (more if traded earlier than last minute). Listed both 2024 and left over at trade deadline. Note: what they actually are paid is often different on multi-year deals (Kikuchi actual gets $10 mil this year) but what the Jays care most about is luxury tax hit, not real dollar hit. Rounding to 1 decimal

Turner: $13.5 mil; $4.6 mil
Kikuchi: $12 mil; $4.1 mil
Kiermaier: $10.5 mil; $3.6 mil
Garcia: $5.5 mil; $1.9 mil
Jansen: $5.2 mil; $1.8 mil
Richards: $2.2 mil; $0.7 mil
Total: $16.7 mil

Note: Votto is probably coming up and would be pro-rated his $2 mil agreed on price which post July 30th is $0.68 mil so that has to be factored in as well. Wasted on released players: Mayza: $3.6 mil, Vogelbach $2 mil, Biggio: $3.8 mil. A few others were sub $1 mil so land under 'who cares'. So that was a lost $9.4 mil on guys who were dumped part way in. Vogelbach the worst as there was a clearly better player here in spring in Horwitz who didn't get the call, but hey they pushed his free agency back a year (37 days ML service time pre-2024, came up early June) which I'm certain wasn't a factor if I'm being honest, it just seemed really, really dumb to waste $2 mil on a guy who was very unlikely to produce much. Of course, Horwitz had a terrible spring (405 OPS in 47 PA) but the role was close to irrelevant anyways (79 PA for Vogelbach over 2+ months 68 games with zero defensive value or base running value) - heck, they might as well have used Berroa who at least can run and play defense.

pooks137 - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#449599) #

Vogelbach was brought in as a LHH bench power bat on a historically RHH heavy team that ended up with league-worst power production for the first two months of the season.

It didn't work out (and either the FO/analytics department or John Schneider didn't have the confidence give him any starts for months on a team desperately needing both offense and power).

The 2 million is only consequential now because the team has tanked so hard that there is a desperate turn to wave the white flag and cut bait under the cap. That certainly wasn't a consideration in the offseason or ST.

Spencer Horwitz has exceeded anyone's wildest expectation. But when Vogelbach was signed and made the team, Horwitz wasn't considered to possess the one skill Daniel provided - lefthanded HR power that can change games.

greenfrog - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 06:35 AM EDT (#449600) #

MLBTR just posted an article on the same topic as John's post: "Looking At The Blue Jays And The Competitive Balance Tax." The writer includes a chart listing the same six tradeable players and their salaries (in the same order).

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#449601) #

The Rays received approval from Tampa City Council for their new stadium proposal, and now only need approval from the County. If they get it, we might learn in 20 or 25 years whether the Rays' persistent cleverness resulted from necessity or from qualities of people from the top down. I'm thinking that it's a combination with a heavy emphasis on #2. Stuart Sternberg, the Rays owner, has donated to Democrats; I wonder what his advice to Biden is.

https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-stadium-city-council-approval

bpoz - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#449602) #

An extreme minority of Bauxites don't have any faith in 2024 myself included. NYY were comfortable before as a 100W team. Now 96W and if it drops to 92W then they well be uncomfortable.

Seattle & Houston are about equal. I expect both to add. Texas in on pace for 78 wins but I think they will add rather than sell. Texas has a strong farm I think.

Competing in 2025? IMO Bauxites are 50/50 in opinion. How will we compete? Spend money, let the young players play or bring in affordable vets like IKF so less playing time for young players?

SK in NJ - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#449603) #

Getting nothing in return just to get under the luxury tax, and then trying to contend next season would be a huge mistake by the FO. It would be nice to get under the tax and reset the penalties, but they need an infusion of talent a lot more, especially if they want to dream about contending next season. Might as well just go over the tax 3 years in a row and then reset the penalties next trade deadline (if they are out of it) or in 2026 when they have a bunch of players coming off the books.

Glevin - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#449604) #

Getting under the tax is super important. The would-be free agents
Kikuchi-just get most possible talent for him. I expect a good prospect or two.
Turner and Kiermeir-Just way to cut salary and give young guys playing time. Don't expect anything back at all.
Garcia, Jansen, Richards-Nothing great back but a flyer of a prospect. If Garcia shows he's healthy and is dominant, maybe more. None of these guys make much money and none is going to get a great prospect so I don't see paying their pro-rated salaries down mattering much.

The Jays have 2 needs, both of which matter. 1) Get young talent/prospects 2) Get under luxury tax. Of course, by far the easiest way to accomplish is to trade 2025 free agents. Jim bowden had this in the Athletic today about Bo. "but according to several major-league executives, teams would value him the same as they always have despite his subpar season." If this is true, not trading him would be malpractice. He isn't going to re-sign, Jays have IKF, Jimenez, and Clement who are absolutely fine at SS and giving Jimenez playing time seems important, and it would allow the Jays to replenish system significantly and get under tax. The downside is that it would hurt their ability to compete in 2025 which is a pipe dream anyway. Trade Bo and trade Bassit and try to build for 2026. Nobody is asking for a complete teardown but anything else is crazy. This is reminding me a bit of the Raptors at the deadline a year ago right now which was one of the dumbest deadlines I've ever seen any team have and the Jays might be going in that direction (which is no direction at all).

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#449605) #

What ZiPS thinks the Blue Jays have for 2025 (approximately). I will use the rest-of-season projections and scale them up to 162 games:

RF- Springer, .245/.322/.411, 109 wRC+, 0.7 BsR, 1.0 def, 134 GP, 2.7 WAR

CF- Varsho .229/.298/.441, 108 wRC+, 0.2 BsR, 7.8 def, 145 GP, 3.2 WAR

LF- Schneider .226/.327/.418, 114 wRC+, -0.2 BsR, 1.7def, 125 GP, 2.7 WAR

3B- IKF .261/.315/.358, 93 wRC+, 0.2 BsR, 4.7 def, 130 GP, 1.7 WAR

SS- Bichette .273/.317/.431, 112 wRC+. -0.7BsR, 3.9 def, 142 GP, 3.2 WAR

2B- Horwitz .265/.354/.398, 118 wRC+, - 0.7BsR, 5.6 def, 96 GP, 2.7 WAR

1B- VGJ ,281/.358/.481, 137 wRC+, -1.0 BsR, -16 def, 152 GP, 3.4 WAR

DH- vacant

C- Kirk .257/.337/.385, 107 wRC+, -4.4 BsR, , 12.8 def 113 GP, 2.9 WAR

IF- Clement .266/.307/.394 100 wRC+, -0.5 BsR, 1.0 def, 105 GP, 1.2 WAR

IF- Jimenez .241/.331/.342 98 wRC+, -0.5 BsR, 2.0 def, 66 GP, 1.0 WAR

The position player lineup is not quite as set as this. Schneider can play second base, Horwitz is a better defender at first base and VGJ can DH. Clement or Jimenez can similarly play a larger role , leading to either IKF or Jimenez at second base and Horwitz at first base and Guerrero Jr. at DH.

Gausman 167 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.57 FIP,, 3.2 WAR

Bassitt 172 IP, 3.82 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 2.9 WAR

Berrios 172 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 1.7 WAR

Rodriguez 118OP, 3.97ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.5 WAR (I did not use ZiPS because it projects only 5 starts and 50 innings for Rodriguez in 2025; this is obviously low given what has happened so far in 2024; I used the Fangraphs projections

Jordan Romano 3.72 ERA

Chad Green 4.08 ERA

Genesis Cabrera 4.08 ERA

Zach Pop 5.44 ERA

Nate Pearson 4.54 ERA

Francis 4.62 ERA

ZiPS suggests that the pitching situation, both rotation and bullpen, is pretty desperate. If they are going to try and compete in 2025, they will have to keep Bassitt and acquire pitching. Maybe even begin at the deadline by attempting to acquire a pitcher like Crochet. I wouldn't recommend this approach, but the alternative of a half-in, half-out attempt to compete in 2025 is very likely going to fail.

scottt - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#449606) #

The starting pitching is really not that bad.
Losing Kikuchi doesn't hurt that much because Schneider does a terrible job of managing the bullpen when he starts. He's 4-8, over 20 starts, the pen is 2-6 over the other 8 games.
That 6-14 record has a lot to do with the current situation.

Rodriguez has looked good.

Romano is a big question mark.
They need to hold on to green at all cost. His ERA is 2.08.
It was 5.25 last year, coming back from surgery. His career ERA is 3.16.
He's only 33. The projection is obviously ignoring the context.
Francis, Pop and Pearson will be out of options.

Glevin - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#449607) #

Another reason, even if the Jays want to compete next year, to trade Bo. Projected gap between Bo and Jimenez/Clement is 1 WAR. Jays can get major-league ready pitching as part of package (LAD, ATL, and Cle all have that to trade), save money to spend better on free agency instead of just needing to eat innings, and have both a better shot to win next year (remote anyway) and better long-term outlook. As of right now, Jays need second catcher, a good offensive position player (Defenders can move around almost anywhere to accommodate them) , 2-3 starters depending on injuries to Macko/Tiedemann, 2 backend bullpen guys. The only place these guys will become available is free agency. That's too many holes to fill via free agency.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#449608) #

Mike that projection for the rotation is actually good.

greenfrog - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#449609) #

It�s hard to know what the Blue Jays should do at the deadline without knowing what the return would be. I doubt the team is getting really substantial offers for their players, many of whom are underperforming or injured.

Running it back in 2025 with a handful of changes to the roster seems the most likely scenario.

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#449610) #

600 decent innings from the rotation. 140 decent innings from the bullpen. 700 innings unaccounted for.

greenfrog - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#449612) #

One problem with running it back. Every FA is going to know that the team is one year away from a potentially long spell of mediocrity. That wasn�t the prevailing view when Springer, Gausman and Bassitt signed with the Blue Jays. This off-season it could be a lot harder to convince quality FAs to come to Toronto. And the team is going to need some quality reinforcements in a few areas.

Petey Baseball - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#449613) #

The most frustrating part of years like this not being able to talk about actual baseball games. We're forced into talking about assets and prospects and titillating ourselves into believing returns for Yusei Kikuchi are actually anything at all.

Baseball gods please gift us with a 9-0 homestand to save us from this garbage.

scottt - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#449614) #

That's not really a problem. Guys who come to Toronto don't mind being traded.
They don't exile themselves here because that's where they want to be.
When was the last time the Jays wanted to trade someone but he used his no-trade clause to block the deal and stay in Toronto?

I don't see them signing someone with a QO attached unless it's Soto.
The cost are getting prohibitive.
That's not really a problem with relievers.
The problem there is trying to avoid long contracts.

bpoz - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#449615) #

TB always seems to have a good and deep pen. Also not too expensive.

We should do that. They also seem to be playing 3 CFs in the OF.

greenfrog - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#449616) #

�That's not really a problem. Guys who come to Toronto don't mind being traded. They don't exile themselves here because that's where they want to be.�

These seem like vast generalizations that are probably untrue in many, if not most, instances.

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#449617) #

ZiPS probably has taken account of Chad Green's batted-ball data in 2024. He's been hit very hard, with exit velocity and hard-hit rate way above his career norms. K rate way down and hard hit rate way up is a bad combination.

John Northey - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#449618) #

A pre-2024 season list of who is a free agent post 2024 is interesting. Key free agents they list are Soto (duh), starting pitchers Burnes, Fried, Scherzer, Bieber, Buehler; plus hitters at: first (Alonso, Goldschmidt), second (Torres, Kim [now a SS]), third (Bregman) & shortstop (Adames).

How are those guys doing this year? using fWAR

2+ WAR: IE: still a star: Soto (5.5), Kim (2.5), Bregman (2.1 - quite the comeback from a horrid start), Adames (3.3), Burnes (2.6)
1-2 WAR: IE: still solid: Alonso (1.1), Fried (1.8)
0-1 WAR: IE: well, not dead: Goldschmidt (0.2), Torres (0.6), Bieber (0.8)
sub 0 WAR: IE: lost nearly all value: Buehler (-0.3 in 12 starts - ugh, his HR rate skyrocketed)

So who is worth chasing? If the Jays dump Bo then Kim would be very tempting to chase (102 wRC+ lifetime, excellent defense at SS/3B/2B - should've been a Jay), as would Adames (108 wRC+ lifetime, excellent defense) - both are 28 so any deal would be for 29-whatever. Bregman would be tempting but expensive (remember Texas has no income tax). Can't see the Jays going for a 1B/DH if Vlad stays. Burnes would be fun to steal from the O's (very cheap team, probably won't try too hard to hold him). I wouldn't go after relievers too hard as they are such a crapshoot - chase after solid looking ones who can eat a few innings. Grab a ton in the bargain bin who you think you can work with and see what sticks. Historically spending a fortune in the pen rarely works out well.

Glevin - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#449619) #

Jays can absolutely sign a better free agent but A) they need too many positions (especially pitchers) to fill via free agency B) Why would Rogers agree to spend more money on a team that clearly isn't a contender? C) It won't likely matter? What's a realistic off-season? Say, Flaherty, Canha, and Robertson and another starter and bullpen guy? Does that move the needle at all? If Jays went out and signed Soto and Burnes, yeah, they could be contenders but that isn't going to happen.

Glevin - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#449620) #

I wonder if Twins would give up Julien for Kikuchi. His offense dipped this year (partially to BABIP luck) but his D improved immensely. He's had a full season of PAs and has 3.7 WAR including a .358 OBP. He can play 2B and move Horwitz to 1B and Vladdy to DH. Also, he's a lefty and Canadian which doesn't hurt. It'd be a lot for Twins to give up but they have Lee, Correa, and Lewis in their IF already. The kind of player that would make Jays better immediately and longer term.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#449621) #

Good news on Ricky Tiedemann�s left elbow/forearm.

No structural damage, per sources.

Expected to be back on a mound at some point this season. #BlueJays
— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) July 19, 2024

also, Votto moved up to Buffalo.

John Northey - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#449622) #

The question is what is needed and where? The pen blew up real good thanks mainly to injuries and unexpected situations (Mayza blowing up, Swanson blowing up, Garcia & Romano & Green all having significant time on the IL). You can't fully plan for that, I don't care if you are Pat Gillick or Gord Ash - HOF or 'oh god no' GM quality. The only plan you can have is to get a TON of depth in AAA which isn't as easy as we all like to dream it is.

Now, for the rest of the team.

Rotation: Gausman (sometimes ace having a bad year after a late start), Bassitt (solid 2/3), Berrios (solid 3/4), Rodriguez (looks like a good 4/5), with Manoah hopefully healthy (potential #1 but likely to be in a 5 role).
C: Kirk/whatever - need to sign a solid #2, ideally Jansen but need to keep an eye for others
1B/DH: Vlad & Horwitz - damn solid, can help at 3B/2B respectively as needed
2B/3B/SS: IKF/Bo/assorted - missing piece is Schneider/Horwitz/Clement/Orelvis/Jimenez/Barger/etc.
OF: Varsho (CF), Springer (RF), and LF an assortment again (Schneider, Berroa, Barger, etc.

That could be a very good team. IMO a bit of healthy/luck in the pen and with Manoah would cover most of the issues of 2024. Mix in a kid developing and we'd have something good even without signing a free agent. Get Soto here and it becomes 'wow' potentially. So basically add 1 star (anywhere in the OF/IF) and a backup catcher plus a bit of pen depth (ideally get as many quality AAAA arms in as possible and keep pushing kids in the minors so we have some better emergency arms ready). This team isn't that far from being a serious contender imo.

FanGraphs position and rank by WAR.
non-pitchers: #15 11.4 (best is 20.3 NYY, worst ChiSox -3.2); starting pitchers: #16 6.5; bullpen: #30 -1.7 (yep, stinks after being #9 last year at 5.1).
C #12, 1B #7, 2B #2, 3B #20, SS #24, OF #13, DH #25 - Horwitz has skyrocketed 2B and has a positive FG score on defense (1.9 - statcast loves him, DRS hates him)

Note: in 2023 Cleveland was #17 in the pen for fWAR and now is #1. Can't recall their offseason but I can't imagine they signed a lot of high end relievers. Oakland went from #30 to #16 - same thing. KC is only #21 but a contender. Arizona has been in the mid 20's both years while contending. A bad pen can be worked around and fixed without killing the budget.

mathesond - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#449623) #

4 years of Julien for 2 months of Kikuchi? Who else would the Jays be including?

Gerry - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#449625) #

Erik Swanson has a locker in Toronto.

greenfrog - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#449626) #

The last time the Blue Jays had a trade chip like Kikuchi, they came away with Billy McKinney and Brandon Drury.

Gerry - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#449627) #

Swanson and Garcia activated.

Pop sent down (as was Eisert last Sunday).

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#449628) #

to build on Mike Green's post, here's the fangraphs combined depth chart projections for the rest of the season, with a war pro rated to a full season (32 starts, 65 relief appearances, 650 plate appearances)

Impending free agents marked with an asterisk:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 120wrc+, 4.3war
* 2. 1B Guerrero 139wrc+, 3.5war
* 3. C Kirk 114wrc+, 5.7war
* 4. SS Bichette 113wrc+, 3.7war
* 5. LF Schneider 113wrc+, 2.9war
* 6. RF Springer 112wrc+, 2.8war
* 7. DH Turner* 109wrc+, 1.2war
* 8. CF Varsho 105wrc+, 3.6war
* 9. 3B Clement 100wrc+, 2.7war

* X. C Jansen* 113wrc+, 3.9war
* X. OF Lukes 101wrc+, 0.0war
* X. IF Jimenez 96wrc+, 2.1war
* X. UT Barger 95wrc+, 1.1war
* X. UT Martinez 94wrc+, 1.7war
* X. IF Falefa 93wrc+, 2.4war
* X. OF Kiermaier* 83wrc+, 1.8war

So yeah obviously Turner and KK are absolutely disposable and hopefully we can ditch their money somehow.

Maybe it makes sense to trade Jansen but that's a pretty big hole to fill, especially since Kirk's projections seem pretty generous at this point.

But other than signing Jansen or another catcher, I actually don't even think the jays should buy any other position players in the offseason, unless we're talking about an elite player. Otherwise, don't clog up the DH slot and give all of Horwitz, Schneider, Jimenez, Barger, and hopefully Orelvis all the playing time they can handle.

* SP. RH Gausman 5.8ip/gm, 3.66era, 3.56fip, 3.3war
* SP. RH Bassitt 6.0ip/gm, 3.92era, 4.01fip, 2.7war
* SP. LH Kikuchi* 5.4ip/gm, 3.92era, 4.00fip, 2.4war
* SP. RH Berrios 5.8ip/gm, 4.39era, 4.38fip, 1.6war
* SP. RH Rodriguez 3.4ip/gm, 3.97era, 3.96fip, 1.4war
* SP. RH Manoah 5.4ip/gm, 4.53era, 4.47fip, 1.1war
* SP. LH Tiedemann 6.5ip/gm, 4.08era, 4.21fip, 3.2war

Obviously a ton depends on the actual medicals on Alek and Ricky. Losing Kikuchi is a significant loss though even then and it'd be a good idea to add another good starter somewhere. But this is still a solid group even after losing Kikuchi.

* RP. RH Garcia* 1.0ip/gm, 3.60era, 3.60fip, 0.9war
* RP. RH Green 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 3.98fip, 0.4war
* RP. RH Richards* 1.0ip/gm, 4.08era, 4.00fip, 0.3war
* RP. RH Francis 1.5ip/gm, 4.49era, 4.61fip, 0.3war
* RP. RH Romano 1.0ip/gm, 3.76era, 3.89fip, 0.0war
* RP. LH Eisert 1.0ip/gm, 4.03era, 4.03fip, 0.0war
* RP. RH Burr 1.0ip/gm, 4.02era, 4.12fip, 0.0war
* RP. RH Swanson 1.0ip/gm, 4.15era, 4.17fip, 0.0war
* RP. RH Pearson 1.0ip/gm, 4.14era, 4.18fip, 0.0war
* RP. LH Little 1.0ip/gm, 4.12eras, 4.34fip, 0.0war
* RP. RH Cuas 1.0ip/gm, 4.34era, 4.49fip, 0.0war
* RP. LH Cabrera 1.0ip/gm, 4.37era, 4.54fip, -0.1war
* RP. RH Pop 1.0ip/gm, 4.77era, 4.66fip, -0.3war

The bullpen is a disaster. Only 2 or 3 guys project as much better than replacement level, and 2 of them are free agents. Bullpen needs a complete overhaul.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#449629) #

Swanson last 5 outings: 22.7k%, 4.5b%, 3.37era, 2.19fip

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#449630) #

They aren't intending to put Swanson in a major league game, are they? He's obviously not ready for that, and I don't see how one would be helping him or the team by doing it.

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#449631) #

Prorating to a full-season in general isn't helpful, UO. For a player like VGJ, sure. For a young player with no significant platoon split who has been healthy, like Davis Schneider, it's helpful (in the sense that another manager might use him differently). But for a player in his mid-30s like George Springer, it isn't. For a left-handed hitter with significant platoon splits, who has been platooned mostly, it isn't. For a catcher who can't be expected to get into more than 120 games, it isn't.

For pitchers, the same thing is true and then some. No starter can be expected to make 32 starts in a year, or anything like it. Injuries happen, and sometimes pitchers who have never had arm problems before, develop them. 32 is the maximum and the most any respectable system will project is 29 or 30, and that would be the unusual case. I do find it helpful to count up projected innings. It's not going to tell you everything but it will tell you a lot.

Apparently, Manoah underwent a UCL repair in June with the original ligament and an internal brace (a tape suture reinforced with collagen). Apparently, this can lead to shorter rehab periods, and in particular has utility for acute tears of less than 3 months. I have no idea how long Manoah's was.

Here's more on this newer version of UCL repairs:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-ucl-internal-brace-surgery-non-study/

SK in NJ - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#449632) #

Are they hoping Swanson has a good week and is movable? I don't see the point in calling him up when he's getting rocked in AAA.

As far as the Julien suggestion for Kikuchi, I don't think the Jays can get him specifically, but I think that's what they are aiming for. They are going to want to fill 2025 holes via this trade deadline, so they'll focus on getting existing big leaguers and/or players close to the big leagues. Of course the last time they had that mindset, they received Drury and McKinney, so hold on to your hats.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#449633) #

we've got our own ideas of what's useful in a projection, Mike, and that's fine.

The projected playing times you're using are based on players having other players taking away playing time from them - so when you remove those players, that opens up more playing time. If Turner and KK are traded today, tommorroe the projected playing times will all increase through the rest of the lineup. So you can't really use those projected playing times as an actual projection of that player's health level.

So i'd rather project them all to full seasons, and then we can feel free to adjust based on whether we think the Jays players' health projections are significantly different than other teams.

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#449634) #

UO, you are counting an outing where Swanson didn't pitch. He had a bad outing on June 28 (faced 5 batters, walked 1, gave up a single and a home run and 4 runs, but none earned). He had good outings on July 1 and 4, was announced but did not throw a pitch on July 9 and then thew an inning on each of July 9 and 11 giving up 2 hits and a run on both occasions, while walking one and striking out 3.

I'll grant that the organization may believe he has turned a corner. We'll see. I hope they are right.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#449635) #

I just put the dates in the fangraphs game log. Gives me 6.1ip over those 5 outings. so if he didn't throw any pitches in one of them then he went more than an inning in 2-3 of them at least.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#449636) #

Blue Jays manager John Schneider says Ricky Tiedemann is headed for a second opinion on his pitching elbow. Details tbd.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) July 19, 2024

Ryan Day - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#449638) #

Zach Pop has also been really bad lately - 8 hits & 5 walks in his last 5.2 innings. I'm not sure there's a "good" option between him & Swanson.

John Northey - Friday, July 19 2024 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#449639) #

With Swanson I'm hoping the Jays are seeing more control, more power, etc. from him thus likely better results. This fits how the Jays have operated the past few years - the second a guy might be ready they bring him back (be it IL or minors) and hope he can handle it. Manoah in 2023 didn't work, lets hope Swanson 2024 does. The pen is a disaster right now so if he can go an inning every time, allowing 1 run every other time he'd be a massive upgrade over what we have now. Solid relievers are 1 run every 3 games, excellent ones 1 every 4 games, great HOF ones 1 every 5 games.

Swanson Last 4 games: 286/318/476 2 R/ER 5 1/3 IP 64% strikes, still not that impressive but the strikes are nice, not walking a lot (1 in 5 1/3 IP) Remember in AAA the offense has a big advantage thanks to the roboumps being in use (seems it helps hitters more than pitchers - I'm sure Greg Maddux wouldn't have been as effective with a roboump as he was with live ones who he'd trick into stretching the zone as he'd keep hitting spots, few hitters had that kind of advantage outside of guys like Ted Williams and Barry Bonds).

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