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The 2024 MLB Draft will begin at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time with the first two rounds and will be held at Cowtown Coliseum in Fort Worth, Texas. It can be seen on MLB Network, MLB.TV, MLB.com and the MLB App. You can follow the draft right here.

Day 2 of the draft with rounds 3-10 and Day 3 with rounds 11-20 are set for 2:00 p.m. ET on Monday and Tuesday respectively.

The Toronto Blue Jays have the 20th overall pick for the second straight year and have a second-round selection at 59. Their bonus pool is $8,987,000.

Baseball America's latest mock draft has the Jays taking Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore with their first-round pick and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN agrees. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline believes the Jays will select Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt while Jonathan Mayo thinks they will choose Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King.


Image from Baseball America.

Round 1 - 20th overall. RHP Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina. Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. Born July 28, 2003. Slot Value $4,073,400.

MLB.com Scouting Report - East Carolina will have a pitcher selected in the top two rounds for the third time in four Drafts, with Yesavage following in the footsteps of 2021 first-rounder Gavin Williams and 2022 second-rounder Carson Whisenhunt. A reliever as a freshman, he moved into the Pirates' rotation last spring and was a consensus second-team All-American. He dominated as a junior, finishing among NCAA Division I leaders in ERA (2.02, fourth), strikeouts (145, fifth) and opponent average (.154, second) while establishing himself as a top-15 pick. The American Athletic Conference Pitcher of the Year, Yesavage has a quality four-pitch arsenal highlighted by a mid-80s slider/cutter with more depth than lateral movement. His fastball parks at 93-95 mph and peaks at 98, overcoming a lack of life with plenty of carry from a high arm slot. He also has a low-80s spike curveball and a splitter with similar velocity, and both miss bats as well. More physical than athletic at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, Yesavage has some effort in his delivery but it doesn't prevent him from throwing strikes. Improved fastball command has keyed his success in 2024 after his heater got pounded at times in the past when he didn't locate it up in the zone. He now looks like a mid-rotation starter after refining the consistency and control of his stuff. Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Splitter: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 Video

Baseball America Instant Analysis - Getting Yesavage here at No. 20 overall is a steal for the Blue Jays. He could have easily fit in the top 10 overall picks, but instead the Blue Jays are getting one of the three premium college pitchers here toward the back of the first round. There’s an impressive mix of starter traits, high-end stuff, good control and a strong collegiate track record.

BA Scouting Report - Yesavage was a hard-thrower who had touched 96 mph in high school, but at the time he was raw in other areas. Now, after three years at ECU, Yesavage is one of the most polished and well-rounded pitchers in the 2024 draft. He pitched out of the bullpen as a freshman but made a strong transition to the rotation in 2023. In 2024, he posted a 2.02 ERA over 15 starts and 93.1 innings with a 40.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Listed at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Yesavage works with a stiff delivery and over-the-top slot but has impressive feel for a four-pitch mix. He sits in the 93-95 mph range with a four-seam fastball that touches 97 and has above-average riding life. He establishes his fastball for strikes, then will go to a mid-80s slider and low-80s split-changeup to get swings and misses. Both secondaries are at least above-average and allow him to attack batters on both sides of the plate. He primarily uses his slider versus righties and changeup versus lefties, with an occasional 12-to-6 curveball in the low 80s for good measure. Yesavage has above-average control and has generally been a reliable innings-eater. He had a scary situation late in the season when he was hospitalized with a partially collapsed lung, but he pitched well in a high-profile regional matchup with Wake Forest’s Chase Burns after the fact. Yesavage is a high-floor starter and is the consensus No. 3 arm in the class behind Burns and Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith.

Twitter Reaction

Scott Mitchell @ScottyMitchTSN Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina. -Ranked 10-20 range in most spots. -6-4, 225 lb. -Four-pitch mix: Mid-90s heater, slider, curve, splitter. -145 K/32 BB in 93.1 IP. -High release point with riding FB. -Command, delivery improved a lot this year at ECU. Could be more growth.

Vinnie Cervino @vcervinoPG 20. Toronto: East Carolina RHP Trey Yesavage Workhorse build, innings water & dominated in Greenville. Mid-90s heater with a 50/55 breaker & + SPL. Solid value here. #TOTHECORE

Blue Jays Today @TodayJays The #BlueJays select Trey Yesavage at 20th overall in the MLB draft!. Yesavage was MLB’s 11th ranked prospect and had a 2.02 ERA in NCAA and has a fastball that can peak at 98mph. Also his name is absolutely badass.

Kendall Rogers @KendallRogers Love the @BlueJays getting @ECUBaseballRHP Trey Yesavage 20th overall. He has such a great story on his pathway to ECU in the first place. Awesome arm who is coming off a fantastic season for the Pirates.

Shotgun Spratling @ShotgunSprD1 Congratulations to @ECUBaseball RHP Trey Yesavage on being selected No. 20 overall (slot value: $4,073,400) in the 2024 MLB Draft by the @BlueJays. Came back from collapsed lung late in season to outduel Chase Burns in regional elimination game.

Peter Flaherty III @PeterGFlaherty With the 20th overall pick, the Toronto Blue Jays have selected RHP Trey Yesavage. Mid-90s FB (T97) with riding life through the zone, gyro SL is +, SPL-CH also a 6, CB is a serviceable 4th pitch. Durable strike thrower, minimal relief risk. Great pick.

Ben Badler @BenBadler I love the Toronto Blue Jays getting Trey Yesavage at 20th overall. Getting a top 10 talent for me toward the back of the first round.

bk @_bkuh_ Where Blue Jays 20th overall pick Trey Yesavage was ranked on various draft boards. Keith Law - 13 Baseball America - 11 ESPN - 14 Pipeline - 11.

643 Charts @643charts MLB Draft Prospect Trey Yesavage was incredibly versatile on the bump for @ECUBaseball in 2024. @treyyesavage’s 58.2% Slider Whiff ranked 3rd in D1, and his 56.6% Changeup Whiff ranked 6th. To top that off, Yesavage was the only D1 pitcher who had 4 different pitch types with Whiff Rates in the 90th percentile or better.

Ben Palmer @benjpalmer Trey Yesavage has a solid fastball that he can throw for a lot of strikes and an absolute wipeout splitter, nice pick by the Blue Jays.

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith Blue Jays draft college RHP Trey Yesavage 20th overall. Ranked 11th on MLB Pipeline's list, the 20-yr-old East Carolina product had a 2.02 ERA with 145 Ks this yr. FB 93-95, tops out at 98 per MLB Pipeline. Also has a spike curve & splitter. Slot value of the pick is $4.07M.

John Sparaco™ @JohnSparaco 20. Toronto Blue Jays - Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina. Yesavage, 20, was ranked No. 11 in the class by @MLBPipeline. He went 11-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 14.0 K/9 rate in 93.1 innings. The polished right-hander has potential to move through the minor leagues quickly.

Friday Starters @fridaystarters No. 20 | TOR Trey Yesavage, @ECUBaseball. Gavin Williams -> Carson Whisenhunt -> Yesavage. ECU's factory of high-end arms continues. Fanned 145 with a 2.02 ERA across 15 starts. Recovered from injury to outduel Burns in regionals.

Geoff Pontes @GeoffPontesBA The Blue Jays were ecstatic to land Trey Yesavage at pick 20. I talked to some folks involved with the decision to get perspective on his first round tumble and organizational fit.


Image from Miississippi State Athletics

Round 2 - 59th overall. RHP Khal Stephen, Mississippi State. Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. Born December 21, 2002. Slot Value $1,489,000.

MLB.com Scouting Report - Stephen served as a high-leverage reliever for Purdue as a freshman before becoming the Boilermakers' No. 1 starter as a sophomore. Following a strong summer in the Cape Cod League, he transferred to Mississippi State and has improved throughout the spring. His Draft stock has risen accordingly and he could sneak into the top three rounds. Stephen's fastball operates at 92-94 mph and touches 96, but it's most notable for natural carry that allows it to miss more than its share of bats. His best secondary pitch is a solid mid-80s changeup with significant fade. He also possesses a pair of average breaking balls with similar movement, favoring his mid-80s slider over his upper-70s curveball. Few college pitchers can match Stephen's feel for four pitches. He has the ability to get in-zone swings and misses as well as chases on each of his offerings, and he commands his fastball particularly well. He lacks a true plus offering but has a high floor as a No. 4 or 5 starter. Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45 Video

Baseball America Scouting Report - Stephen started his career at Purdue where he had reasonable success as a starter in the 2023 season before a strong summer in the Cape Cod League where he posted a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 innings. He transferred to Mississippi State for the 2024 season and shoved early in the year to jump into top-five round consideration. He finished the year with a 3.28 ERA over 96 innings and 16 starts with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. A 6-foot-4, 215-pound righthander, Stephen has an excellent pitcher’s frame and throws from a higher three-quarters slot. He has a deep mix of four distinct pitches, though he relied on his fastball/slider combination for about 85% of his usage this spring. The fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range and gets up to 96 with above-average ride and carry at the top of the zone. He did a nice job establishing the pitch for strikes and helping to set up his low-to-mid-80s slider that flashes gyro action at times and more sweeping life at others. Stephen throws a mid-80s changeup as his primary secondary against lefthanders, and will also mix in an occasional upper-70s curveball. Stephen’s solid blend of quality stuff, size and starter performance should get him selected early on day two if he isn’t taken on day one. BA Grade: 45/High Tools: Fastball: 55. Slider: 50. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.

Twitter Reaction

Vinnie Cervino @vcervinoPG 59. Toronto: Mississippi State RHP Khal Stephen. Starter traits here w/ a very unique fastball. Sits mid-90s but plays up due to carry, life. Makings of solid offspeed mix here too. #TOTHECORE

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith Blue Jays draft Mississippi State RHP Khal Stephen with their second-round pick, 59th overall. FB 92-94 & touches 96 per MLB Pipeline. Also: CH, SL, CU. One scout gives Jeff Samardzija comp. Says high floor type, No. 4 SP at MLB level. Slot value of the pick: $1.49M.

Shotgun Spratling @ShotgunSprD1 Congratulations to @HailStateBB RHP Khal Stephen, a #Purdue transfer, on being selected Rd 2, No. 59 overall (slot value: $1,489,000) in the 2024 MLB Draft by the @BlueJays. Relied on FB more than most pitchers today, but able to throw above hands for swing & miss consistently.

Taylor Blake Ward @TaylorBlakeWard Blue Jays 2-59: Khal Stephen, RHP, Miss St -- pitchability starter, lively low/mid 90s FB, can alter shape/velo of SL/CV, good feel for CH w/ good life, all ingredients to start longterm w/ backend rotation w/ command for more upside

Peter Flaherty III @PeterGFlaherty With the 59th overall pick, the Toronto Blue Jays selected RHP Khal Stephen. FB up to 97, averaged ~21" of ride. Advanced feel for an effective SL that he does a nice job varying the shape of. Limited usage, but also has an effective CH at his disposal.
2024 MLB Draft - Day 1 | 123 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#449319) #
Thanks for this, #2JBrumfield!

This is a lot of work and I’m excited to read it!
Mike Green - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#449322) #
There goes Seaver King. Not even close to being available at #20.
BlueJaysLifer - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#449323) #
Thanks for this! Best name in the draft is gone already. We may not get the guy we really want. Instead getting the guy left
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#449324) #
grab Theo Gillen please.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#449325) #
based on my ten minutes of scanning this mlb draft board right now.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#449326) #
Always interesting to see who drops and who doesn't. #11 Trey Yesavage still there, #15 Cam Caminiti, #16 William Schmidt. The Mariners with pick #15 took the switch pitcher who is ranked #25 (hopefully he keeps switch pitching - I love oddities like that). 5 picks until the Jays go - so at least 1 guy ranked higher than #20 will be on the board at their turn. Who will be there when they pick ... we shall see.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#449328) #
Well, Marlins went cheap - took #43 rank with #16 pick. So #11, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20 are all still on the board for picks 17/18/19 and the Jays at 20. So the Jays worst ranked that will be available is #18 Carson Benge (LH college OF) graded at a 55, everything between 50 and 60 for him.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#449329) #
Brewers went even lower - #53 Braylon Payne. So now the weakest the Jays have a shot at is #16 - William Schmidt (RHP high school) a 55 again, but his curveball is a 70 (sweet), 60 fastball. Very tempting if going long term but pitchers are such a crapshoot.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#449331) #
Like gillen too but so did Tampa.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#449332) #
and tampa takes Theo Gillen.

lmao.

dammit.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#449333) #
Schmidt announced today he's going to college. Highly doubt anyone takes him until late rounds.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#449334) #
Yesavage is pick. Looks like value here even if I prefer hitters.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#449335) #
I am hoping we go White here. Wouldn't be upset with Waldschmidt, Caldwell, or Lindsey, or a couple of the other college power bats.

I am really surprised to see these arms drop though - but maybe TINSTAPP in full effect.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#449336) #
Rays also cheap - shocking I know - #28 ranked player. Mets take an OF #18 Carson Benge. Now the Jays get a shot at #15 Cam Caminiti (cousin of Ken) high school LHP 60 fastball, but 50+ on everything. #11 still on the board Trey Yesavage RHP college 60 fastball, 60 slider, 60 splitter - was seen as a solid top 15 pick pre-draft but has fallen for some reason. If he is ready he could shoot up fast in relief and be in the Jays pen by September. Best hitter on the map is 3B Tommy White college RH.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#449337) #
slim pickings for me now. maybe Lindsey.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#449338) #
I'm not sure TB drafting #28 should be considered cheap, it's not really that far off the board. The rankings are never universal, every team has its own board.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#449339) #
FYI: Only Canadian in the top 100 is Dante Nori #48 LH hitting OF. Hit 55, speed 65, field 60, but power just a 45. Would be an interesting pick out of college.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#449340) #
Not bad - getting the #11 overall guy Trey Yesavage. Can't complain even if he is a pitcher which always has question marks.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#449341) #
Honestly, if we are going for a pitcher, I'm not upset with this. He was the 2nd or 3rd best college pitcher.

I genuinely think Farrell drafts based on aggregate rankings.

Still would've preferred White.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#449342) #
oh yay a low upside college pitcher with no standout pitches but who should "move quickly". great.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#449343) #
It was a weak draft. Yesavage might have been the best choice. Damned if I know.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#449344) #
The broadcasters love him - throws from higher up than most. Has 3 solid pitches and low reliever risk they say. Fast climber so could be here next year or 2026 especially given our weak system. Jays really do need a lot of pitching help and ace starters are hard to sign as free agents at reasonable prices. So lets hope after Pearson and Tiedemann seem to have flopped that this guy is more of a Halladay than disaster.
Katie - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#449345) #
I think this a really good pick, based on what I've read. Every draft ranking had him as the 3rd best college arm in the draft behind only Burns and Smith, who went in the Top 5. Most mock drafts had him in the 10-15 range.

Maybe this will be like Austin Martin, who fell and now looks to be not as good a player as his consensus ranking at draft time, but the front office had the ability to watch Martin for a year and trade him while he retained some of his draft-time value.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#449346) #
I'm not sure low upside is the read on Yesavage. The dude's average velocity on his 4-seamer and slider was 99th percentile. 89th-99th percentile whiff % on all six of his pitches. 1.73 FIP, 40.4 K%.

Besides, you can't spell his name without Savage.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#449347) #
Klaw:

-splitter is wipeout pitch
-lots of FB as well
-very short arm actions, some teams didn’t like this
-no major injuries in his career so far
-he is close to MLB-ready, should start next year in AA or AAA

Maybe the desperate FO is hoping he can help in 2025 in some capacity, and they weren’t thrilled with the other players available at 20. I’m not especially enthused about this pick, but whatever.
Katie - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#449348) #
From what I read, it was an average-to-slightly-above-average top tier (like first 8-10 players didn't have a Skenes/Crews/Langford, but overall was fine), but that it thinned out after that, particularly due to weak high school class.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#449349) #
Matt Collier who is a big prospect numbers guy with his own formulas (worth a twitter follow) had him as his number one pitcher. He is not a low upside guy.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#449350) #
I will not re-read Deck McGuire's draft profile

I will not re-read Deck McGuire's draft profile

I will not re-read Deck McGuire's draft profile

I will not re-read Deck McGuire's draft profile

I will not re-read Deck McGuire's draft profile

I will not re-read Deck McGuire's draft profile


ah crap i just did.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#449351) #
McGuire was widely panned at the time. The dude barely put up a 9.0 K/9 in his draft year and all his stats were much, much worse. Yesavage might bore you but he isn't a McGuire/Jenkins pick. He's more like a Manoah pick.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#449352) #
Interesting that at the moment he 3 highest ranked players not drafted are high school pitchers (15,16,19).
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#449353) #
Here's all the data on Yesavage.

https://twitter.com/Antoni0u/status/1812650013224497395/photo/1
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#449354) #
Of course, uglyone, if the Jays do the rest of the draft like they did that year ... nice. Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowsky. Funny - the site I found first had McGwire as a A-, Syndergaard as a C-. Heh. Best guy the Jays drafted that year they didn't sign (11th round Kris Bryant... sigh).
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#449355) #
I remember Syndergaard was considered way off the board that year. He had helium before the draft but most weren't in on him.
Katie - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#449356) #
Fun fact: Yesavage was the only D1 pitcher who had 4 pitches with Whiff Rates in the 90th percentile or better.

You can hate the pick all you want, but comparing him to Deck McGuire is inaccurate. McGuire's draft profile was someone whose fastball had little movement, but who had good control and three pitches he could throw for strikes. Evidently, a 90 mph fastball with no movement doesn't play in the big leagues. I've not read a single scouting report on Yesavage that says his pitches don't have much movement.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#449357) #
velo and k rates have gone way up over the last 10 years, so comparing those numbers don't really tell the tale.

Yesavage sits 2mph higher than Deck. Also concerns there's not much movement.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#449358) #
Dang, given the Jays love of family trees I was hoping Cam Caminiti would hang around but that was very unlikely - AA takes him.
soupman - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#449359) #
The only good pick a Shapiro front office has ever made was Lindor at #8. So it's hard to think that 25 years of drafts with middling outcomes that this is going to be the year they strike gold late in the first round...but it could be!

metafour - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#449360) #
What exactly is the comparison to Deck McGuire supposed to be? H/9, HR/9, and K/9 are nowhere close. McGuire was extremely hittable in college, this kid isn't. McGuire had no put away pitch, this kid does.

Seems like a really lazy attempt to compare him to some former Jay that wasn't any good.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#449361) #
I read there is little FB movement but lots of depth because of how high is throws from.
Marlow - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#449362) #
Is there any chance the Yesavage pitches this year?
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#449363) #
"McGuire throws his fastball in the 91-93 mph range with little movement. His best pitch is a power slider, up to 86 mph, and it has the chance to be an above-average to plus pitch.

McGuire is big and broad shouldered and is a fair athlete with a good feel for his changeup and his command is excellent. In addition, he has plus makeup and excellent mound presence.

Strengths: Outstanding command, three good pitches, quick to big leagues. Excellent competitor.

Weaknesses: Limited ceiling, lack of life on his fastball.

Summary: McGuire may not have the highest ceiling of the pitchers in this draft class as he profiles as a No. 3 type starter. However, he might be the safest college arm to choose from.

He's got a good three-pitch mix and excellent command that comes in a big, durable body. He's always been successful and has shown the ability to compete and win even without his best stuff.

While he's not an ace in the making some teams might look for, he should be the type of advanced arm that can get to the big leagues in a hurry and be a very important innings-eater in the middle of a rotation."


vs


"Yesavage has a quality four-pitch arsenal highlighted by a mid-80s slider/cutter with more depth than lateral movement. His fastball parks at 93-95 mph and peaks at 98, overcoming a lack of life with plenty of carry from a high arm slot. He also has a low-80s spike curveball and a splitter with similar velocity, and both miss bats as well.

More physical than athletic at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, Yesavage has some effort in his delivery but it doesn't prevent him from throwing strikes. Improved fastball command has keyed his success in 2024 after his heater got pounded at times in the past when he didn't locate it up in the zone. He now looks like a mid-rotation starter after refining the consistency and control of his stuff."



close enough to put a scare into me.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#449364) #
That comparison probably covers like 90% of college righties. They aren't similar pitchers.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#449365) #
tl;dr - you're incredibly lazy. We get it.

Sometimes it's okay just not to have a take.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#449366) #
With the Jays the only 1st rounder with positive WAR is Alek Manoah under Atkins/Shapiro. 2nd round is Bo Bichette. 3rd all sub 2 - Zach Jackson & Riley Adams both over 1 WAR. 4th just negative WAR, 5th Cavan Biggio and nothing else.

At 4:57:30 you get an interview with Jays 1st rounder on MLB.com btw.
metafour - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#449367) #
Ok, now read Prospects Live's writeup (they have at #9) and tell me this sounds like Deck McGuire:
Originally a reliever in 2022, Yesavage burst onto the scene as one of the best starters this past spring. He's a physical specimen on the mound with solid lower half usage and scap loading, as well as an over-the-top arm slot. His entire arsenal is outstanding, as he's posted a 43% whiff rate thus far, as well as a chase rate over 35% (!). His fastball sits in the mid-90s with immense carry up in the zone and excellent command, but it's the off-speed pitches that have taken center stage. The cutter-esque slider is a plus offering with gyro drop and bite in the mid-80s and his low-80s splitter has taken a huge step forward, consistently showing plus in-game with insane tumble. Both pitches have whiff rates over 60%, which is insane to think of. He's kept a curveball in his back pocket, a true downer curve with a ton of depth. There's potentially three plus pitches with command in this profile.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#449368) #
Prospects Live wouldn't have let him drop to #20 looks like.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#449369) #
I’m not seeing the McGuire comp at all.

As for Caminiti, Law says he’s a “super-athletic” LHP with a mid-90s FB, solid feel for CH, improved CB that might now be above-average. Good delivery with lots of projection remaining. HS pitcher alert, so who knows what his status will be in a few years. He’s a cousin of Ken Caminiti.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#449370) #
BA's 2010 Pre-Draft Rankings:

Top 25 College Baseball Prospects

* 1. Bryce Harper, C, CC of Southern Nevada
* 2. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Louisiana State
* 3. Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#449371) #
Honestly it's not worth your time metafour. I literally linked data on all his pitches, movement, whiff rates, etc. Shouldn't even be a conversation.

Anyway, moving it along. Vance Honeycutt going to the Orioles, with their player development, is potentially deeply scary.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#449372) #
Aaand...Arizona drafts their 2nd potential Corbin Carroll.
metafour - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#449373) #
McGuire was a pure junk-baller even in college. He had a 1.04 HR/9 in his final season. He gave up 7+ H/9 in each of his three NCAA seasons. Again, he wasn't striking college batters out.

I remember that pick extremely well. The writeups on him couldn't list anything other than "safe pick" and "innings eater" as his standout traits. Anything related to his actual pitches referred to him throwing "several above average pitches".

The difference between Yesavage and McGuire is that Yesavage actually has 1st round stuff. And that stuff translates to his actual on-field metrics. 14 K/9, 4.7 H/9, and 0.39 HR/9 means that he was overpowering hitters. The more advanced whiff-rate metrics b ack that up as well.

McGuire's profile had literally nothing. He was a 91-93 RHP with no standout secondary pitch, who was getting hit around in College. Surprisingly that guy had no success against even better hitters. Just a monumentally stupid pick that by today's scouting standards would never fly.
uglyone - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#449374) #
ok well you guys have convinced me. well kinda. maybe.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#449375) #
TBF, I wanted an exciting bat like Gillen, Caldwell, or White. I want more of those Nimmala-style picks. Cjintje would've been a way more exciting arm, but Mariners took him. The reality is Yesavage was a good pick for the draft position, especially with Gillen taken by TB. Of course, he's a pitching prospect, so he'll blow his arm out next year, and it'll all be for naught.

The Yankees taking Ben Hess is a lot more of a question mark. The dude has 2 good pitches (FB/Curve), 1 below average (Slider), and 1 bad (changeup). 4.56 FIP.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#449376) #
Oh, I definitely wanted a hitter but also Jays did what I wanted which is to not be wed to a single player and pick value. Yesavage was highest ranked guy left by pretty much everyone. He probably still won't be great because most prospects aren't and all pitchers are awful prospects, but I like the pick (for a pitcher). Give me a high school bat this round (Lawson?)
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#449377) #
Can't imagine Lawson goes in the 2nd round. Imagine if they draft Holman again.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#449378) #
Yesavage has the big numbers in college ball this year, but how is his short-arm approach going to play against MLB hitters? Are they going to quickly learn how to pick up when the splitter is coming (as opposed to the FB)? Are there examples of pitchers with similar profiles who have had substantial, successful careers as MLB starting pitchers?

I guess #20 overall picks don’t generate a lot of WAR on average, and this is a weak draft year, so if the Blue Jays can get even a few good MLB seasons from Yesavage, that would be a good outcome.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#449379) #
Brecht going to the Rockies is probably the best possible outcome for us. But probably the worst possible outcome for him.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#449380) #
There goes White.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#449381) #
Tommy White - the 20th ranked player, thus the logical one for the Jays to have got in round 1 just went to the A's as the first pick of round 2. #16 William Schmidt (HS RHP), #19 Ryan Sloan (HS RHP), #32 Billy Amick (col 3B), #34 Dakota Jordan (RH OF col) are the highest ranked still on the board. Lots of picks before the Jays at #59.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#449382) #
Schmidt not available. Announced on twitter he's going to college so no one will take him.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#449383) #
Wonder if Sloan is telling teams the same.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#449384) #
Hoping for Amick, but could see it being another college pitcher here. Burkholder and Bateman are interesting. But it's really slim pickings already with the depth of this draft.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#449385) #
Draft is really weak now. Another big advantage for picking at top of draft. Early second round not really much different than picking later in first. Later in second is shallow especially on high school side.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#449386) #
Given the two top 20's must have crazy demands lets assume neither will be picked until the 11-20th rounds (when you grab guys with no cap risk, just to see if they might change their minds).

With 4 picks before the Jays now a top 50 pick should be on the board. 3 hitters in the top 40 still there.
metafour - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#449387) #
HS OF D’Marion Terrell is a player that the Jays are apparently connected to. Could be an option at #59. Keith Kaw has him in the 50's on his ranking.

He is a power-first 6'3 OF; committed to Auburn.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#449388) #
Just Rays left before Jays 2nd round pick. Billy Amick best player on the board other than unsignable William Schmidt
.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#449389) #
Wow, I did not expect Pitre to be the first Canadian drafted.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#449390) #
Khal Stephen ranked #88 taken with the 59th pick. A RHP in college. Weird choice.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#449391) #
I can't say I understand this pick.

Go figure Amick goes right after.
Glevin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#449392) #
I don't think rankings matter very much at a certain point. Difference between #50 guy avd #100 guy probably very little to nothing. Don't like this pick. Not a lot out there but just seems like a 4th/5th starter type unless I am missing something.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#449393) #
Looking into it, the Jays have gone for underslot picks in the 2nd round each year under Farrell. So this could very well be a signing pool play.
Katie - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#449394) #
I agree that I think ratings become much less useful as the draft gets deeper. Also, fwiw, ESPN had him at #74.

Add me to the chorus who doesn't love this pick and would rather have seen Amick (and a few others). Stephen seems to be another prospect with a high chance of sticking as a starter as he has four pitches, but none of them seem elite and he relies a lot on the fastball. Unless he develops his other pitches, seems like a back of the rotation arm.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#449395) #
One might say, he's closer to Deck McGuire.
Katie - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#449396) #
Good call, Kelekin. I imagine Amick would be seeking overslot money and maybe they have a deal with Stephen for underslot, so that could be a big swing between the two players.

Is it worth it? I'm not convinced and we'll see, but that might explain the strategy. They probably also have a good sense of what impact Yesavage will have on their pool, as maybe he will necessitate an overslot deal.
John Northey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#449397) #
Very good point that #30-#100 are probably not a massive spread. More who do you like at this point - ie: scouts loved xyz about player abc so you grab him. 2 Canadians taken so far - Dante Nori by the Phillies with #27, Émilien Pitre #58 by the Rays. Lowest ranked taken so far is by Arizona #220 with the 64th pick - that is a big spread - they must have loved him or need the cash. None of their picks are grossly off outside of him but they did have 4 picks (competitive balance, and one for having Corbin Carroll up all year).
BlueJaysLifer - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#449398) #
Gotta say, hope I’m wrong but this seems like the type of pick a desperate FO makes when they know they need a kid to come quick and not what’s best.
The reviews on the FB have me concerned.
Ducey - Sunday, July 14 2024 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#449399) #
I like the 1st pick. The 2nd has a floor as a 4th or 5th starter. Not some 6 ft tall guy with no projection. Sounds okay to me.

The Jays need top end arms. They seem to have some success with getting hitters from later rounds and IFA.

More arms the better. Keep em coming
John Northey - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#449400) #
Rounds 1 and 2 done now. How did the AL East do?
  • Red Sox: #12 took 8th ranked Braden Montgomery (OF); #50 took 87 rank Payton Tolle (LHP) - 4 year junior college both.
  • O's: #22 picked 22nd ranked Vance Honeycutt (OF); #32 picked 38 rank Griff O'Ferrall (SS); #61 picked 78 rank Ethan Anderson (C), all in 4 year junior college.
  • NYY: #26 picked 44th ranked Ben Hess (RHP); #53 took 63rd ranked Bryce Cunningham (RHP) - again, both in 4 year JC.
  • TB: #18 took 28th ranked Theo Gillen (HS OF); #58 took 173rd ranked Émilien Pitre (JC 2B); #66 took 81 ranked Tyler Bell (HS SS).
  • Jays: #20 took 11th ranked Trey Yesavage (RHP); #59 took 88th ranked Khal Stephen (RHP) - both 4 year Junior Collage
Boy, sure was a theme by the AL East to take 4 year JC players wasn't it? Rays being who they are took 2 high schoolers just to confuse us (every else zigs they zag). Jays and Red Sox only ones to take higher ranked players than the draft slot they had - kind of odd.

Best left for tomorrow's 3rd-10th rounds? #16 William Schmidt (HS RHP high demands so not going), #34 Dakota Jordan (Col OF), #46 Joey Oakie (HS RHP), #47 Ryan Johnson (JC RHP), #50 Mike Sirota (JC OF), #55 Kevin Bazzell (JC C), Dax Whitney (HS RHP). That's it for the top 60. 74 picks made today so odds are those guys had high demands or something else that made teams go 'maybe not'. Day 2 used to be a waste mostly in AA's time here - you'd take guys who'd sign for next to nothing just to free up cash for your top 2 picks or so. Of course, sometimes those guys worked out (Anthony DeSclafani in 2011 signed for over $500k less than the jays next pick who had negative WAR, DeSclafani has 10.2, Kendall Graveman in 2013 signed for $5k but has 9.7 bWAR so far, best of any Jay draftee that year (Danny Jansen at 9.3 was a 16th round pick, Matthew Boyd was another bargain pick getting $75k as a 6th rounder and has 9.2) - that 2013 draft was backwards - the 3 biggest bonuses (over $500k each) produced -0.2 WAR with Rowdy Tellez getting the biggest as a 30th round pick - the Jays saved cash to try to sign Phil Bickford but he wouldn't sign (has 0.2 bWAR so probably for the best - currently in the Yankee farm system).

For reference as to what is possible - best Jay draftees (name all 10+ WAR guys, notables) rounds 3-10...
  • 3rd round: John Olerud, Jimmy Key, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Jake Marisnick, David Weathers, and 10 more with positive WAR.
  • 4th round: One of the bad rounds historically: best is Casey Janssen (7.4) with 5 more having positive WAR
  • 5th round: Wow: Dave Stieb, Pat Hentgen, Michael Young, Mike Timlin all with 19+ WAR. Cavan Biggio next best, plus 5 more positive guys
  • 6th round: Anthony DeSclafani plus notables: Matthew Boyd & Pat Borders (hard to believe he has under 4 WAR lifetime), plus 2 more with positive WAR
  • 7th round: Casey Blake, plus 5 more positive WAR (4 signed, 1 DNS)
  • 8th round: no 10+ WAR, but Kendall Graveman is damn close, 3 others positive WAR but all sub 1.
  • 9th round: Jesse Barfield, notables Glenallen Hill, Aaron Loup, and DNS Jeffrey Hammonds plus 4 more who reached and has positive WAR
  • 10th round: Yan Gomes, plus notable Jordan Romano, Josh Phelps (was so hopeful), and 3 more who were positive.
So lots of potential there - 2 near HOF'ers, a few other damn good players, lots of 10 WAR guys, but remember there are 46-50 players in each of those rounds the Jays drafted (used to get comp picks late 3rd round years ago, just 5 rounds in 2020 of course). So best case each round is 3:Olerud (1B), 4:Janssen (RP), 5:Stieb (SP), 6:DeSclafani (SP), 7:Blake (3B), 8:Graveman (closer), 9:Barfield (RF), and 10:Gomes (C). Not bad. Of course, Barfield and Stieb were drafted in the 70's (very different) plus Stieb was signed as an OF (converted to pitching late in year 1 in the minors after hitting 192/257/253), Olerud was seen as unsignable (guarantee to go straight to the majors did the trick), Graveman a shocker ($5k bonus proves that), and the Jays never had any confidence in Gomes it seemed.

Fingers crossed the Jays catch some magic in day 2. 16/50 in round 3 is the best for positive WAR results we can hope for (32% or just shy of a 1 in 3 odds) so don't expect much. I say they should chase the best available talent as odds are not good of anything much especially after round 3. 2015's round 3 has just 2 over 10 WAR, everyone else sub 3. 2014 0 10's, just 1 over 3. 2013 has 1 over 10, again no others over 3. 2012 1 over 10, next is a 4.8 then the rest sub 2, 2011 has zero over 3. 2010 has the lottery winner J.T. Realmuto, 3 others between 3 and 7, rest sub 3. I think you get the idea. By round 3 it is a pure crapshoot - 6 drafts (180 players) with 1 star, 4 10's, 5 others with 3-7 WAR and the rest scrubs (well, not Jordan Hicks but he is an oddity dragged down by negative years, injuries, and being mostly a reliever before this year) or a 5% chance of something very good roughly and I'd bet rounds 4-10 are much worse.
Kelekin - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 04:22 AM EDT (#449402) #
Thanks John.

Here are some names that I think are still "interesting" at each position as day 2 guys (with ages).

Catcher
Kevin Bazzell (21) - great freshman year, dealt with mono this year
Cole Messina (21) - decent pop, good makeup
Anderson French (18) - good power
Ryan Campos (21) - super underrated due to his size
Nathan Flewelling (17) - Canadian kid, good power potential

Infielders
Jared Jones (20) - huge power bat, can't play D
Corey Collins (22) - insane senior year, but age + inconsistent results working against him
Jeremiah Jenkins (21) - tons of power, consistent, lefty
Ty Southisene (19) - would be rated higher if not for his size
Jay Abernathy (18) - all the makings of a good leadoff hitter
Brendan Lawson (18) - another Canadian kid

Outfielders
Mike Sirota (21) - power, speed, dropped due to less good jr year
Garrett Shull (19) - good all-rounder
Noah Franco (18) - Interesting two-way player
Terrence Kiel II (18) - Really fast switch-hitter, leadoff potential
Austin Overn (21) - lightning fast, needs to improve
D'Marion Terrell (18) - huge raw power
Sawyer Strosnider (19) - good power/speed combo

LHP
Ryan Prager (21)
Josh Hartle (21)
Mason Russell (18)
William Kirk (18)
Johnny King (17)
Jakob Wright (21)
Brandon Clarke (21)
Talan Bell (19)

RHP
Joey Oakie (17)
Dax Whitney (18)
Carson Wiggins (19)
Chase Mobley (18)
Tyson Neighbors (21)
Daniel Eagen (21)
Connor Gatwood (18)
LP Langevin (21)
Nate Dohm (21)
Dane Moehler (18)
Sam Stuhr (21)
Luke Sinnard (21)

scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 05:47 AM EDT (#449403) #
Fangraphs has a board with 100 picks.
Trey Yesavage is #19 and Khai Stephen is #59 on it.
That has Billy Amick at #84.

Mike Green - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#449404) #
When we were young.

Trey Yeasavage is not yet 21 and has a rock and roll name. And he's a pitcher, with a variety of good pitches but nothing outstanding, and command. A fast mover, they say. When I was young, the late 1st round guy who fit that profile was Mike Mussina. Mussina did exactly as advertised, and was in the major leagues and delivering an 8 WAR season 18 months after being drafted.

Some years later in the mid to late 90s, Bill James said that if you were going to bet on the longevity of pitchers, take the high strikeout guy like Randy Johnson over the command guy like Mike Mussina. Which turned out to be good advice, but Mussina's third act was none too shabby even if it failed to reach Johnson's sky high bar.

Anyways, Yeasavage doesn't look a bit look Jesus and I'm not worried whether he talks like a gentleman. Mussina didn't. And I checked- Mussina was indeed picked 20th in the first round by the Orioles.
Glevin - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#449406) #
This draft definitely seems weak to me both at the top (where would Bazzana have gone last year? Not top five) and depth. I do think Jays went under slot with second pick which means hopefully they take more expensive high schooler in round three. After that, I stop caring about picks really. They might become something in five years, but not worrying about which ninth rounder we get seems like basic self-care. Pitching is definitely the weak link in the system right now so happy to fill that up although it isn't like offensive players are strong either.
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#449407) #
"High floor" and "pitching prospect" should never be used in the same sentence imo.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#449408) #
Apparently Trey dropped to us because of a collapsed lung. It came from training (kneeling). Source: Gate 14 podcast. They compare the pick to Manoah.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#449409) #
I don't think you can apply "high floor" to a hitting prospect.

What does "high floor" actually mean?
That the guy's stuff is already good enough to pitch in the majors?

A low floor guy is, in my mind, a guy who struggles to throw strikes.
Is that desirable?

It seems to me that they can pick up guys who don't have control in the later rounds.

Keep in mind that the issue with the Jays pitching prospect has been health, not lack of stuff or control.
(Hoglund), Tiedemann, Dallas in 21.
Barriera, Fluharty, T.J. Brock in 22.
Watts-Brown, Maroudis, O'Halloran in 23.

Let those guys reach and be healthy and the system would look a lot better, retroactively.
 

bpoz - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#449410) #
I could not stay awake for the Jays pick. I was too hot and went to bed by round 12-14.

This morning I checked our selections and read the comments. The comments were Ok. Some Deck McGuire comparisons were made and C Jenkins. Can someone compare J Hoffman and Jon Harris to enhance our analysis? Please note that this is not sarcasm. I can't do that. More curiosity.

Many were hoping to draft another Nimmala but based on his numbers so far I cannot analyze him well. Toman was a 2022 draft and is moving slow or ok. So I looked at the scouting grades for both to get an understanding so that I can look for someone similar to Nimmala. I found Konnor Griffin & B Rainer today. Braylon Payne (fast runner) & Theo Gillen are the guys that I found yesterday because I was looking lower than 20 in the rankings. All selected before our pick and the scouting grades don't give bb/k rates.
greenfrog - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#449411) #
It will be interesting to see which pitcher looks better in 5-10 years: Yesavage (Toronto) or Caminiti (Atlanta). Two very different players and draft picks.
Marlow - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#449412) #
"It will be interesting to see which pitcher looks better in 5-10 years: Yesavage (Toronto) or Caminiti (Atlanta). Two very different players and draft picks."

The Blue Jays took their chances with high school pitchers (Brandon Berreira and Landen Maroudis) the previous 2 years. I am guessing they want someone who is a little more developed rather than risk the pitcher's elblow blowing up.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#449414) #

Baseball America's latest mock draft has the Jays taking Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore with their first-round pick and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN agrees. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline believes the Jays will select Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt while Jonathan Mayo thinks they will choose Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King.

Malcomm Moore went to Texas on the 30th pick.
Waldschmidt went to the Diamondbacks as their Promotion incentive pick (31).
King went to the Nats with the 10th pick.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#449415) #
Apparently Yesavage moved to baseball late after discovering his million dollar arm and might not have as much wear on his elbow as the average hard thrower.
85bluejay - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#449416) #
Not surprised that a FO in trouble would select a "quick to the majors prospect". Even if the Jays made quality selections, I'm skeptical of their developmental team's ability to maximum the player's potential.
Mike Green - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#449417) #
I thought that I'd look at the period from 2021-24 to see how the Blue Jays starting pitchers are doing.  Actually pretty well, but considerably behind Philadelphia, Atlanta, LAD and Milwaukee and about even with Boston, NYY and Tampa.  Tampa is the outlier.  Over 3 and 1/2 years, their starting pitcher who has thrown the most innings is McLanahan with 404, followed by Eflin with 277,  Rasmussen with 233, Glasnow with 215 and Bradley with 171.  For the Blue Jays, Manoah is like McLanahan- 420 innings, very good at one point and injured.  But they have relied on expensive free agents to provide the bulk- Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Kikuchi have all thrown many, many innings.  Ryu did that earlier and Stripling threw a bunch, as did Robbie Ray.  Only Gausman was very effective for several years, and indeed he was one of the 3 best pitchers in baseball over that time frame.  

The Blue Jay bullpen over 2021-24 has been below average, 25th of 30 teams according to Fangraphs, and easily the worst in the division.  Except when you look at Win Probability.  Their bullpen has been ahead of Baltimore, comparable with Tampa and Boston, and only behind the Yankees.  Their overall lack of quality has, I guess, shown up in the playoffs, at least from a Win Probability perspective.  The Yankees and Rays have definitely done considerably better with their pen than the Jays over the period.  And free agents have had little to do with it. 

What does this have to do with the draft?  It's very good to have an ace starter, but finding them and keeping them healthy is a crapshoot. Spending about 1/2 of your budget on pitching (as the Blue Jays are doing in 2024) is a poor idea.  This doesn't mean that a medium-high budget team has to act like Tampa, but they certainly can learn some lessons from them.  Collect pitchers of a bunch of different types and use them creatively.  It's particularly easy to do when you have a good defence.  How many pitchers do the Blue Jays have who are good at keeping the ball in the park and not walking people?  They should have at least 2 or 3 with relatively homely strikeout rates but those other two good qualities- they tend to come cheaper, both in the draft and in the open market.  Maybe Yeasavage is one of those. 


Nigel - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#449419) #
Aside from Manoah, who was the last league average (ish) starter that the Jays have drafted/IFA and developed? Stroman? I must be missing someone? Anyway, amongst the things that have gone wrong recently is the Jays inability to get pitching value other than paying for it in free agency. Whether through bad luck or poor draft/development (or both) there’s been a systemic failure to get even a passable 200-300 innings a year at near league minimum wages. That has to change.
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#449420) #
I'm not going to insist on any Deck comparison anymore, but i do take issue with comparing yesavage to a guy like manoah, when imo they're opposite type prospects. Manoah was drafted based on having 2 potential plus plus pitches but with a lack of control and durability worries. Yesavage is being drafted based on having 4 average to abive average pitches, with good pitchability and durability but perhaps some concern he's benefitting from an unusual/trick arm angle/action.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#449421) #
One point nobody has mentioned is that this guy is going to sign for bigger $$$$$. It's gotta be a reason as well as to why he was passed up by some other teams. While I agree with all the points I also think that had the Jays taken the high school pitcher and Atlanta too Yesavage then there would be more commentary along the likes of "Jays had a bonafide starter to draft with high upside and available to join MLB by next year and they passed it up. AA got a better player after"
greenfrog - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#449422) #
I'm not saying Atlanta's pick is necessarily better. Just that it will be an interesting comp down the road. Both picks have received praise, but for different reasons.

It's always worth remembering that most draft picks don't work out in the end, especially those that are outside of the top 10 overall selections.
85bluejay - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#449423) #
I'm thinking that the Jays hope the two pitchers selected can reach AA this year and start AAA next year with a view of being contributors sometime next season.
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#449424) #
Yesavage is also one of those fun ones whose July 28 birthday puts him right on the cusp of age delineations on baseball sites. I believe in this case it works in his favor - i.e. i believe sites will list this year as his age 20 season, even though he turns 21 halfway through the season.

In general i see age 20 as appropriate for A ball, and 21 as appropriate for A+. So expectations-wise, for an apparently polished prospect like Yesavage, i'd guess the hope is that he is at least performing well in A+ this year. That would be a solid first impact. Him reaching AA would be a nice development even if he struggles there a bit. If he pitches well in AA by the end of the year then he's pretty exciting. If he struggles in A+ or doesn't make it out of A then we should be a bit concerned imo.
Ducey - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#449426) #
The Jays tend to send their drafted pitchers to Dunedin to the lab, and maybe give them a cup of coffee in professional ball.

Yesavage threw 34 innings in 2022, 76 IP last year and 93 this year. I would not expect him to pitch much this year.
85bluejay - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#449427) #
Surprised the Jays passed on Billy Amick in the 2nd round - desperation for "quick to the majors pitching" will do that I guess.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#449428) #
Green, not calling you out...just generally. I also think it will be interesting to see which of those two winds up better. I'd have taken high schooler then traded SP for closer to major SP prospects.
Ducey - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#449429) #
According to MLB.com Amick has below average speed and quickness and chases a lot of pitches out of the strike zone. They describe his 3B play as fringy to average and that he may wind up at 1B. Thats going to put a lot of pressure on his need to produce power.

Maybe he will be a star, but I would not be that enthused by that profile.
Kelekin - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#449430) #
Also, reports are Amick was going to be an overslot signing, of which the Jays probably couldn't afford to do two of in the first two rounds with their bonus pool. It's easy for us to armchair but there are a lot of things at play when making these selections we're not privy to.

So much bah humbug in here though when anything past the first few picks this year (and most years) is a crapshoot. Probability of the kid making the majors is under 50% at that draft position even in a good draft. At least we know we'll probably find an MLB player in the 16th round.
John Northey - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#449432) #
Hmm... gets me thinking about the top college vs HS pitcher taken each year. Lets go back to 2005-2009 (a bit earlier than I used last time to give more runway for the pitchers).
  • 2005: Jays took the first pitcher Ricky Romero from college (6th overall, 9.9 bWAR lifetime). First high school was Chris Volstad by Seattle 16th overall 2.0 bWAR. 3 more college pitchers picked between them - Mike Pelfrey the only one to do anything (5.8 bWAR). Clay Buchholz taken 42nd overall is the best pitcher (16.8 bWAR) from a JC. Others over 10 WAR - Matt Garza (Col 25), Marco Estrada (col 174), Jeremy Hellickson (HS 118), Jaime Garcia (unk 680), Craig Stammen (Col 354), and Sergio Romo (Col 852). You can quickly see that many did well who were taken much later than the 1st round.
  • 2006: Luke Hochevar (HS) first overall pick - 3.7 bWAR. Greg Reynolds (Col) second overall pick - -1.5 bWAR. And this is why using top 5 picks on pitchers is not thought of as a smart move. 4th and 5th overall were also pitchers, one flop and Brandon Morrow had 11.1 bWAR at #5 (Col). This was a pitching heavy draft. #7 Clayton Kershaw (HS - HOF), #11 Max Scherzer (Col - HOF), #524 David Robertson (Col - 21.2), #201 Doug Fister (Col - 19.6), #10 Tim Lincecum (Col), #109 Alex Cobb (HS), #21 Ian Kennedy (Col), and many more. With all that pitching talent the Jays ended up with Graham Godfrey as the best they produced (-0.4 bWAR round 34 - taken as a gift to the team president). Ugh. This draft showed the highs and lows of drafting pitchers early.
  • 2007: 1st overall David Price (40.2 bWAR, Col), first high schooler was 9th Jarrod Parker (6.5 bWAR) followed at #10 by HS Madison Bumgarner (37.3 and some great WS games). Corey Kluber was the next best pitcher taken (and signed) at #134 (4th round) from college. Others with 20+ WAR were Jake Arrieta (Col 159), Jordan Zimmermann (Col 67), and Danny Duffy (HS 96). Funny note: Brandon Belt was drafted (not signed) as a pitcher this year.
I think the basics are clear - early picks on pitchers are high risk/high reward - you could get Price, Kershaw, or Scherzer. Or you could draw craps and get Hochevar, Reynolds, or Volstad. Later rounds you can get quality though - Arrieta, Robertson, Fister, Cobb, Estrada, Garcia, Stammen, Romo, etc. but with a lot more never were than stars of course. It'll be interesting to see how this draft works out for the Jays.
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#449437) #
Sure there's a lot of bah humbug in here, especially from me, but then again Shapitkins have had 20+ drafts together and their only notable first or second rounders have been Lindor, Kipnis, Bichette, and Manoah.
Kelekin - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#449438) #
Oh I absolutely agree that their long-term draft history in early rounds is quite poor. They seem to be well suited to finding interesting late rounders than early rounders.

I just think in general its conflating different things. Their lack of draft success is not the determining factor of whether they've made a good pick - all our 1st rounders under Farrell (since 2020) were considered good picks, because he seems to have a clear BPA value approach.

The issue comes down to their inability to develop strong talent into MLB players. It doesn't matter who the pick is if we can't develop them.
BlueJaysLifer - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#449440) #
Ducey- I guess you still buy into develop arms and buy the bats philosophy. Do you think that may be changing? Especially with high velo / spin leading to injury.
I personally would like bats given they seem to have success developing bats. On the other hand the bats in this draft, especially at this point, don’t seem to be great. I just question drafting another high floor low ceiling arm in the 2nd round. But then again I detest this front office from a draft and develop perspective. Nah I detest this FO period is more accurate
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#449441) #
sure, but at least my negativity is also based on these two picks being the exact profile I wanted to avoid, and I don't think i'm the only one who wanted to avoid this profile.
metafour - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#449442) #
sure, but at least my negativity is also based on these two picks being the exact profile I wanted to avoid, and I don't think i'm the only one who wanted to avoid this profile.
Your problem is that you are hellbent on creating a profile for Yesavage that doesn't actually exist. Just in your last post comparing him to Manoah you labelled him as having "4 average to above average pitches". Again, this doesn't correlate to what the actual metrics on his pitches were, unless you want to seriously argue that a pitcher posts elite whiff rates in College with "average" pitches. And no, there is no report that he is throwing average pitches but "tricking" batters with his arm angle lol. You literally started this convo by comparing him to McGuire based off of nothing factual or tangible. Have you considered that your take is simple wrong?
Kelekin - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#449444) #
Yesavage has three plus graded pitches - the issue is people are equating "polish" with "low ceiling", as opposed to the fact it's believed his stuff is already quite good and therefore he's advanced and closer to the majors.

Khal Stephen on the other hand is boring and has no plus pitches, therefore much more of a McGuire/Jenkins and hopefully is a slot signing saving.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#449451) #
Stephen had 107 Ks in 96 innings with 21 walks.
I guess throwing strikes is boring.
He has a plus fastball and a plus change up.
The slider and curve are average.
He doesn't have a plus plus pitch but he commands the fastball.

I kinda imagine a young Richards, although Richards has a straight fastball.

Kelekin - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#449452) #
Khal has good command. But none of his pitches are graded as plus at this point. Not saying you're wrong, but I don't see it in his advanced data or scouting reports, so I'm curious if I've missed sources that suggest he has plus pitches.

He may very well be a good pitcher who makes the majors, but he is much more the profile of a 'safe low floor low ceiling' college pitcher that often has not worked out well for us.
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#449453) #
metafour the scouting reports seem very clear on what his pitches are and aren't. MLB.com phrases it "four solid or better pitches" and "three above average pitches". BA phrases it "a fastball averaging 94 and three secondaries that are solid-average or better". All mention that despite his impressive stats his stuff is notably less exciting than the top two pitchers.

Scouting reports mention both a "high arm slot" and a "super-short action", noting that both these elements are usually disliked by scouts, and that it gives him a very unique delivery that is hard to quantify or make comparisons to. I read into that that he's been giving college hitters a much different look than they're used to, and that this is helping him get whiffs that maybe won't carry over to the pro level. You can accuse me of reading too much into it and that's fine. but pretty much every scouting report makes a point of referencing his unique unusual and less than ideal delivery and I'm also fine with reading into that what seems obvious to me.


You yourself are ignoring everything the scouting reports say about his good not great stuff in favor of some fairly new metrics that we don't actually have a good track record for comparison or projection off of yet. And that's fine too. I love numbers and hopefully those whiff rate percentiles prove more important in the end.
bpoz - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#449454) #
Connor O'Halloran and Watts-Brown have OK pedigrees and have pitched for half a season. Both university picks. If they can be in AA to start the season or by their 10th start of 2025 I will consider their progress v good.

I really like Kacevich. I think he will be a ML player. Maybe a regular.
Katie - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#449455) #
All mention that despite his impressive stats his stuff is notably less exciting than the top two pitchers.

The stuff of the 20th overall pick is less exciting than the stuff of the 2nd and 5th overall picks.

News at 11.

uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#449456) #
despite having similar whiff percentiles as them, was the point.
Katie - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#449457) #
Every site I've read (caveat: some pay sites are behind walls and I can't access them) has praise for the Jays draft and those that assigned letter grades that I've seen haven't handed out lower than an A-. Everyone likes the Yesavage pick and some have called it the best value pick of the round.

Not one analyst seems to be critiquing the pick because of the "profile" or has ever said "I don't think he can get out professional hitters due to the arm slot." If the analysts were really that skeptical he was getting whiff rates in college due to unsustainable deception, someone would actually say the quiet part out loud. As much as the scouting reports are "very clear on what his pitches are and aren't" everyone translates that into a very good prospect to have drafted 20th overall, even if you don't accept that.

Interestingly, the sites that analyze both picks also have a lot of praise for Stephen, which I'm more skeptical of.
Katie - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#449458) #
despite having similar whiff percentiles as them, was the point.

And.....? No one is arguing that Burns and Smith don't have better stuff than Yesavage. Of course they do, that's why they went in the top 5 and were the consensus best 2 arms in the draft. The Jays didn't have the option of drafting them.

The point is that you continually seem to be creating a distorted picture of Yesavage that completely contradicts basically the consensus evaluation of his talent and whether he was a good pick at 20th overall.

uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#449468) #
I mean every scouting report criticizes his delivery, and rates his stuff lower than his whiff rates would indicate. To me, that's saying it loud enough.


MLB really likes him grades him like this:

* FB: 60
* FS: 60
* SL: 60
* CU: 50
* CH: no changeup
* CMD: 50

Fangraphs has plopped a 45 grade on him at this point, tied with 7 other pitchers for 6th best grade in this draft class.

Pitch Grades:

* FB: 55/55
* FS: they don't rate splitters
* SL: 55/60
* CU: 50/50
* CH: no changeup
* CMD: 35/60


For comparison, they have Khal Stephens not far behind at a 40 grade. His pitches:

* FB: 45/45
* SL: 50/55
* CU: 50/50
* CH: 45/55
* CMD: 30/50

Some of Fangraphs Yesavage profile:

"a week before the NCAA Tournament, Yesavage missed his conference tournament start because, while undergoing dry needling treatment, he got poked so deep the needle punctured his lung. That required a marathon car relay to get him home from Florida, where the accident took place.

“I rode back with my roommate’s parents, and then my other roommate’s girlfriend from Raleigh to Greenville,” Yesavage said. “But it feels good, I’m all good now.”

And a week later, Yesavage was back on the mound, outpitching, arguably, the no. 1 arm on the draft board. The latest version of The Board, out this week, has Smith no. 4 and Burns no. 5, with identical 50 FV grades, but they make up a clear first tier of college arms. (Eric Longenhagen prefers Smith, but I like Burns, because I’m a caveman who can’t get over Burns’ combination of triple-digit heat, plus-plus slider, and WWE-level showmanship. If the Rockies take him at no. 3 and ruin him, my response will be positively unprofessional.)

But Yesavage showed in his final start that he can hang with the biggest names on the board. The ECU righty, along with Brecht, makes up the second tier of college starters, likely to go off the board starting in the teens.

Yesavage is 6-foot-4 with a fastball that sits up to 94 with a mid-80s slider that he varies shape and velocity on, along with a splitter and a spike curve he breaks out against lefties.

“It started off as a cutter, being taught the cutter grip, and it moved more than a traditional cutter,” Yesavage said of his slider, his best secondary pitch. “Over time, it became more of a traditional slider, but that’s something my pitching coach worked with me on. Getting moved from the bullpen to a starting role, I needed more pitches, so I developed the splitter and slider in that time.”

Yesavage’s arm angle is about as close to vertical as you’re likely to see; that, along with his height, gives him a vertical release point that will be among the highest in professional baseball the moment he gets drafted. That gives his fastball a downward vertical plane that’s not exactly fashionable these days, but in Yesavage’s defense, he’s been throwing this way for a long time.

“My dad was the one that taught me how to throw, back in little league and tee-ball, but I never made an adjustment,” he said. “It’s always been comfortable for me. I don’t know if I’ve always thrown that high, it might’ve been a subtle progression over the years, but I didn’t work to get it that high — it just came natural.”

The big selling point for Yesavage this week is that he’s as close to big league-ready as any pitcher in the draft. In fact, he says he hopes to be the first pitcher from this class to make it to the majors. He’s in pretty good shape as far as reaching that goal; there’s very little physical projection left for him, and he already throws multiple breaking balls, plus a splitter. It’s a deep, starter-type repertoire.

But getting there has taken a lot of work. He’s had to break down and rework his leg kick and shorten up his arm action in order to throw strikes more consistently. At the same time, Yesavage was learning his knuckle-curve, which he said moved like crazy almost immediately but took a while for him to learn how to command.

The fact that it all clicked for Yesavage should be comforting for Brecht, who represents a higher-upside, but higher-risk alternative to teams looking for pitching in the middle of the first round."



uglyone - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#449470) #
"And.....? No one is arguing that Burns and Smith don't have better stuff than Yesavage. Of course they do, that's why they went in the top 5 and were the consensus best 2 arms in the draft. The Jays didn't have the option of drafting them."

the point being that the scouts are skeptical of his whiff percentiles.

"The point is that you continually seem to be creating a distorted picture of Yesavage that completely contradicts basically the consensus evaluation of his talent and whether he was a good pick at 20th overall."

I don't get this tbh - every year there are many high-floor low-upside college arms that are rated highly. Him being rated #10-15th in the draft doesn't prove anything about what type of prospect he is. It's not like Deck McGuire was an off the board pick - he was picked right where he was expected to go. I dislike these picks and said as much prior to the draft.

This isn't like when Waldrep fell to the Braves last year at 24 - Waldrep was a very high upside arm with lotsa risk attached. Much more my preference.

greenfrog - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#449490) #
This is Mike Axisa of CBS Sports on the 2024 draft winners and losers:

Winners: Blue Jays and Braves

For me, the two best value picks of the first round were East Carolina righty Trey Yesavage to the Blue Jays at No. 20, and Arizona high school lefty Cam Caminiti to the Braves at No. 24. College pitchers with Yesavage's deep arsenal and track record don't make it outside the top 15 very often, yet Toronto was able to get arguably the third best college arm in the draft at No. 20. The partially collapsed lung that kept Yesavage out of the ACC tournament may have caused him to slip a bit (he returned in the Regionals a week later and was dynamite). As for Caminiti, he was the best high school pitcher in the draft class, and it's a Max Fried starter kit. Atlanta developed the actual Max Fried into an ace. Now they'll try to do it again with Caminiti. He was rumored to be in the mix for a top 10-13 pick or so.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#449507) #
Fastball 55
Change 55
Curve 50
Slider 50
Control 55

They have good scouting at the majors level and the fastball is a good pitch if one commands it.
In that last series against Arizona, all those crushed fastballs were misses over the plate.

scottt - Monday, July 15 2024 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#449508) #
In the first round, if all the good shortstops are gone, might as well take a pitcher.

Apparently, this is a new low for the number of high schoolers picked.
With fewer minor teams, there are fewer high school players needed.

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