Keith Law had an article in the New York Times this week where he said the Jays were high on Brody Brecht, a power RHP that has had control problems.

Seaver King is the one I like best of the names mentioned.

To be clear, I like Seaver King the ballplayer. The fact that his name is a Grade A baseball name has nothing to do with my opinion!

Ben Nicholson Smith weighs in.

With draft approaching, other teams have heard Blue Jays are in on D’Marion Terrell, an 18-year-old left-handed hitting 1B/OF from Alabama. Auburn commit.

Terrell is interesting... ranked in the 50s by Law... and 150s by Pipeline but I trust Law's rankings far more. Big left power, good setup... probably not 20th overall but maybe 2nd or 3rd round with the $$$ from the extra 4th round pick.

Malcom Moore would be a risky pick in the first round given his so-so college season and iffy catcher defense but he's a Stanford player who apparently interviewed really well at the draft combine which is exactly the sort of thing I could see impressing Atkins and Shapiro over actual baseball skill. From Joe Doyle on Twitter:

In speaking w/several executives who handled player interviews at the Combine, one thing is abundantly clear. Stanford C Malcolm Moore made himself a lot of money. 90-grade interview.

Talked to enough folks now where I'm not giving away secrets. He blew away the whole industry.

Moore can't catch so where will he play? 1B? Hope the Jays can remain flexible if one of the college hitters drops a lot. Just get some talent into the system!

Brecht's scouting report is interesting. "His work captured his radical commitment to socialist politics and the emancipation" Hmm...might be wrong Brecht.

The Fangraphs mock draft has the Jays picking William Schmidt, a high school right-hander, who they have ranked at 14.

In 2022 I mentioned Robby Snelling before the Jays picked. Snelling VS Barrier : Both HS pitchers. I don't know who will be better. I like both equally and if Barrier gets healthy then the competition becomes fair.

Some/most years, before the draft takes place draft evaluators say that year X is not as good as year Y. I don't know if they check 5 years later to see how accurate they were. If pick 1,5,10,15 and 20 in year X is considered weaker than the year Y candidates then my logic/math says that the year X picks should be given lower bonuses. I don't know how this can happen if the best player available is picked.

Brody Brecht is related to the other one, and has vowed to complete unfinished work.  Waiting for Votto should be a big hit here. 

Spoiler: Waiting for Votto will be a musical.

The player development results of this regime has been so disappointing that I can't even get interested about the draft. Often, FO in deep trouble, opt for a quick to the majors talent in hopes of helping their tenure - hoping the Jays resist this temptation.

I have to agree with Marc's comment in another thread that Brecht is a project, and I am not sure the FO is going to look at that level of risk while under the gun. His slider is incredible, and his BB/9 rate dropped the last few weeks of the season, but I just don't see them taking an arm here. Unfortunately, he'll probably drop to a team that can develop pitchers better than us.

I don't expect them to deviate much from "the process", but a college bat with some power seems like the likely choice. Malcolm Moore, Seaver King, Ryan Waldschmidt, Tommy White, Billy Amick all possibilities here.

A college bat in the back half of the first round is a waste. I really hope they stay away from their comfort zone of dreadful “safe” first / second rounders. However I doubt it. Well maybe it’s another nail in the Shapiro / Atkins coffin!

They drafted high schoolers two years in a row in the first round. Not sure how you can call what they're doing "safe". Also, plenty of college bats in late first round succeed. I mean, not many do but not many of anyone at that point succeeds.

Safe?

They took a high schooler in the 1st round in each of the last 2 drafts. Taking a high school pitcher is the exact opposite of safe. They also took Groshans out of high school.

They took Hoglund when he was injured, and Austin Martin who was controversial.

I dont think they are good at their jobs, but safe isnt the problem.

I was with you up until Austin Martin. That was as safe a pick as safe picks get.

Most years there's one college bat that comes through big in the back half of the first round- Jordan Westburg, Nico Hoerner, and Will Smith would be recent examples from 2017-2020. It's a crapshoot at that point in the draft, with relatively few big successes- less than one in every four selections.

Ok maybe safe wasn’t the best description. More “off the board”. That may be a more accurate description. This front office is full of guys who think they are the smartest guy in the room. I definitely hate what they have done in the first couple rounds of the draft to this point.

I always think of 'Safe' picks as the average fastball starter who's a quick mover (Deck McGuire), or the college player who does everything OKish and may stick at shortstop (Logan Warmoth). There's no one tool that stands out, but if you squint and everything turns out, you can see a starting ballplayer. Picking a falling pick seems like a separate category... unless it's also a safe pick, like McGuire. At least Martin was believed to have a plus hit tool.

I used to be OK with a 'safe' pick, but given how unsafe they seem to actually be I'm more about failing big these days.

I hated the McGuire and Warmoth picks from the beginning, and said so. But I like a certain kind of college position player. Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill types. A broad range of skills and control of the strike zone. Developed power is in my view overrated.

I hated the Zeuch, warmoth picks probably the most in the last 15 years. I think they look horrid now given who was still available. So much for waves of talent.

Just because they are a high schooler doesn’t mean they aren’t safe. Bryce Harper was a high school pick

Zeuch and Warmoth were awful choices. 2018 they went with Groshans which was a completely fine pick on paper. 2019 was Manoah. Under Farrell (starting in 2020), the Jays have taken big swings in the 1st round and all of which were perceived to be good picks on paper.

Drafting is not our issue (again, on paper). Development is likely our downfall.

I don’t know about the Barreria pick- he seemed a head case in that post pick statement and having shut himself down so early definitely raised eyebrows with other clubs.
Groshans seemed the same way - I know there are reports from Miami that termed him uncoachable. If they hadn’t found teams to take Martin and hoglund they would absolutely be skewered for their 1st round picks.
Hopefully Arjun Nimmala works out.

Here comes the draft doo doo doo dooo
Here comes the draft and I say it's all right

After Tyler Beede, Matt Smoral, Phil Bickford, and Brandon Barriera, I hope the Blue Jays are pretty much done with drafting HS pitchers in the first round.

The Jays draft should have slogan. Something like the USSR famous saying. "We hoped for the best, but it turned out like always. "

Of note:

• Top 7 by WAR 1st rounders by the Jays - all high schoolers (Halladay, Green, Carpenter, Vernon Wells, Moseby, Rios, Shannon Stewart) Top 3 all 30+ WAR, Halladay of course a HOF'er with 64.2 bWAR
• Best College 1st rounders: Hill (24.4), Stroman, Paxton (DNS)
• Others with 10+ WAR all HS: Syndergaard, Karsay (traded for Ricky in 1993)
• Best 1st rounder past decade: Alek Manoah at 7.5

IMO getting less than 10 WAR from a 1st round pick is a waste of that pick. Just 13 out of 76 first rounders reached that level for the Jays. For 20th overall pick they've taken Arjun Nimmala (in A ball), and Chad Jenkins (1.4 bWAR). Rios & Stewart both had over 20 WAR and were 19th overall picks. Stroman was a 22nd pick. Pearson was a 28th overall pick. Some of these were picks for loss of a free agent (used to get a teams 1st rounder plus a sandwich between round 1 and 2) - Tom Henke got us Chris Carpenter, Tom Candiotti = Shannon Stewart, Bud Black = Shawn Green, Marco Scutaro = Aaron Sanchez, John Buck = Joe Musgrove. So the old rules got us a few good players, recent ones led to Unsigned pick Tyler Beede = Marcus Stroman (used to just lose the pick if you didn't sign them).

Just 3 10+'ers in round 2 - all high school - David Wells (53.5 bWAR), Bo (17.4), and Derek Bell (13.1)

Round 3 was the college round with John Olerud (58.2), Jimmy Key (48.9), Shawn Marcum (13.4), Adam Lind (12.7), and David Weathers (10.4) all college players. Just Jake Marisnick was a high school success with 10+ WAR in round 3 for the Jays.

Kind of weird - high school works best for rounds 1/2, but college for round 3 for the Jays it seems. Go figure.

yeah as i get older all i like seeing drafted is high school hitters with patience and athleticism.

Like Nimmala.

Just draft every nimmala you can find.

to hell with pitchers in general. TINSTAPP has never been truer. they all get injured. and starting pitchers aren't what they used to be anyways. they only toss 100 pitches and that is only going to come down going forward. we've made a nice rotation out of workmanlike vets. that's the market inefficiency.


more nimmalas. just nimmalas.

Warmouth and Harris were the two 1st round picks that I saw live almost immediately in Vancouver and couldn’t for the life of me see what made them first round picks. Neither had a single standout tool or pitch.

"IMO getting less than 10 WAR from a 1st round pick is a waste of that pick."

I think people are a bit delusional about likely draft outcomes. Only little more than 2/3 of first rounders ever even make the majors. Average WAR for picks 1-5 career is around 13. By picks 16-20, it's 4. You'd love a star obviously but getting a player who makes the majors and has any sort of career is actually a success. The Athletic did a piece redrafting the 2014 draft now and they have Laureano as the 18th best player. There are 8 first rounders with career 10 WAR. Unlwas you are picking top-5 it just isn't a realistic expectation.

For pitchers go nuts with IFA's at the $10k level (thus no limit) who have live arms at 16, watch for older ones with live arms you missed earlier too. In the draft by round 5 it is a pure crapshoot so go nuts then too. Lets look at the 2014 draft (10 years ago - should be obvious for good vs 'who cares' players)

10+ WAR: 8 in round 1 (3 30+), 1 in round 2, 0 in round 3, 2 in round 4, 1 in round 5, 1 in round 6, 0 in rounds 7-10 (Jordan Romano the best at 7.7), 2 in round 11, 0 in 12-15, 1 in 16, 0 in 17-26, 27 has 0 ML'ers, 0 for 28-37, 1 in 38 (Paul DeJong DNS), 0 in 39/40.

Basically by round 5 you are down to a 1 in 30 chance of a solid, good ML'er, a bit higher of someone who will get a cup of coffee in the majors, but still low (most rounds had 2-4 guys reach with 1 to -1 WAR). So by then roll the dice, grab a live arm and see if you get lucky. But rounds 1? No way, get the best player you can and leave the pitchers to later. Yeah, you might get a Halladay but odds are high you'll get a Brien Taylor (Yankees took him 1st overall in 1991, pay a record bonus, peaked at 21 in AA then blew his arm out and never had an ERA below 6 again).

Crazy to think we haven't successfully developed a 1st round HS position player since 1999 (Snider is the closest since Rios). But I'd still rather see the Jays take shots on guys like Nimmala, Toman, Snider, Groshans, Ahrens (his comp was Chipper Jones!).

This is a "weak" prep class for position players in the 1st round, but Theo Gillen is the most exciting looking (if they move him to CF). Lindsey is toolsy, Caldwell is probably the most likely to make it to majors and would go higher if not for his size (his scouting report reads like Corbin Carroll's).

HS pitchers have always been very risky, but they are probably more risky than ever, with so many now throwing in the 95 MPH range to attract scouts and garner scholarships at top colleges. I think there was a recent study that concluded that HS competitive pitchers are throwing a lot harder than their developing bodies can withstand. Maybe Barriera was one of those teenage pitchers. Maybe Tiedemann was, too.

BA has a morning update:

Aside from the Cubs, Moore is most frequently tabbed with the Blue Jays. I’ve heard Tommy White’s name mentioned more with Toronto in the final days, but I’ve also heard them tied with Vance Honeycutt and Walker Janek. Lots of college hitters.

Ok maybe safe wasn’t the best description. More “off the board”. That may be a more accurate description.

No offense, but you seem to be talking out of your ass and trying to come to a conclusion that simply doesn't exist. Neither Nimmala nor Barriera were "off the board" picks by even the wildest imagination. In fact they were the complete opposite: both were high-upside HS players who were universally ranked higher than the spot that the Jays ultimately picked them in. They were actually what one would describe as "best player available" picks. Gunnar Hoglund falls under the same category: a player who was seen as a Top 10 talent before he blew his elbow out; drafted at #19 by the Jays. "Off the board" implies drafting someone that no one in the industry had ranked or projected in the spot they were selected at. An example of that would be Nick Yorke who the Red Sox drafted at #17 in 2020. MLB.com had Yorke at #139 on their Top 200, and he was universally seen as a 2nd/3rd round type talent. On paper, the Jays' drafting has been structurally and fundamentally sound more often than not. They seem to have a considerable player development problem, not a "drafting" problem.

Just hope Jays can get a couple of interesting propwdxts. Obviously, picking 20th, you're not getting a stud prospect out of the gate. Next year's draft will be a bigger deal as Jays will likely pick top-5 which means potential elite prospect.

Is it safer to pick a guy who drops to you or the guy you were planning to pick all along?

Spencer Torkelson has been terrible. At this point the pick of the draft was Garrett Crochet who went 11th.

Hoglund is 24 with a 2.88 ERA in 17 starts at AA.
That seems fine to me.

Scott Mitchell@ScottyMitchTSN·Jul 10
Draft name to keep an eye on during Sunday’s first round: North Carolina OF Vance Honeycutt.

Scott Mitchell@ScottyMitchTSN·3h
The college catchers are firmly on the radar at 20, which makes sense given the complete dearth of them in the system these days.

Scott Mitchell@ScottyMitchTSN·2h
They’ve also done extensive work on another catcher, Red Deer’s own Nathan Flewelling, the consensus No. 2 Canadian prospect available. Round 4 maybe?

I’m looking forward to the draft, including the little blurbs that people put up and the discussion afterwards. Something hopeful to look forward too ina season of misery.

Thanks to the Bauxites who do this work for the rest of us to enjoy. It’s important!

I hate drafting catchers high. If be fine with Moore because he's more of a hitter who might move off of C but catching prospects are just so unpredictable. Just a hair behind pitchers.