This is what the team would look like next year as we currently stand. The roster below would cost around 190MM.

Springer RF
Guerrero 1B
Bichette SS
Varsho CF
Kiner-Falefa 2B
Kirk C
Schneider LF
Horwitz DH
Clement 3B

Jimenez
Lukes
Martinez/Barger
Severn

Gausman
Bassitt
Berrios
Rodriguez
Tiedemann
Romano
Green
Pearson
Pop
Swanson
Cabrera
Little
Francis

Might want to think about the replacement for Davis Schneider.

He has slipped to 98 OPS+ for the season. He is 159/232/318 in the last month (23 games). And he is not strong defensively so he is playing positions (LF,2B) where you want to generate some offense.

I have not been a believer so I am biased, but he doesnt look like a guy you can build around. Maybe a trip to AAA is needed to get him recalibrated?

One guy not mentioned is Steward Berroa. Maybe someday the skipper will actually let him play some games and we can see what he can do. Nathan Lukes had lines similar to Horwitz. He is 29, maybe he can add something if he gets healthy.

Berroa is a nice backup but that seems to be it - at age 25 he has hit 296/387/456 in AAA in a high offense context (Buffalo as a team is hitting 259/363/429). Lifetime in the minors he has hit 253/358/387 which is nice but not 'give him a ML job' nice. I'd like him to get a game or two in as a starter just to give him a shot, but I wouldn't expect much.

Of note: Berroa was part of the IFA class of 2016 - the same class as Gurriel Jr, Kirk, Moreno, and Otto Lopez with Rafael Lantigua still in AAA. Quite the class! A shame the Jays didn't hold on tightly to those scouts. 2017 had Leo Jimenez, Eric Pardinho, Miguel Hiraldo, and in AA Adrian Hernandez and Rainer Nunez. The rest of 2017 is either traded or retired. 2018 has Orelvis Martinez, Gabriel Martinez in AA. 2019 is Shun Yamaguchi (Japan), Yosver Zulueta (3 IP for Reds), Sem Robberse (AAA for StL), and a stack of guys who are still kicking.

Amazing how long it can take for a year of IFA's to clear out of the system with 2016 still having prospects around. Just goes to show how long it takes to know what you got from a 16 year old who you probably decided on signing when they were 15 or even younger. Reminds me of good ol' Jimy Kelly who had a nice spring training with the Jays around '87 iirc and was signed at 14 in 1985 (walked 32 times in 48 games, sadly never came close to that again and was retired before he turned 20).

This winter, I pointed out Lawrie's dip to that same 98 OPS+ when the table was being pounded for Schneider's role on the team.

It does make sense to give Lukes an extended look over the final 3rd of the season once Kiermaier is traded.

Berroa needs to be able to do better than KK's OPS+ of 48.

The front office delayed bringing Horwitz up and now its "why wasn't he called up sooner".

The front office called Davis Schneider up last season and he sat on the bench until he got a chance to hit himself into the lineup. They didn't believe in him, he had to show them.

The Jays called Leo Jimenez up and he has four at bats in six games played since his recall. He just reached base three times yesterday.

The Jays called up Steward Berroa twice and he doesn't have an at-bat yet.

The evidence suggests the FO and/or the manager doesn't believe in the kids called up and they have to prove they deserve to play. But to prove it you need a chance.

Addison Barger is the counter to this argument, he did get chances.

I don't know why someone has to either be "build around" or "trade". Schneider has beena very good player since his callup and all the projections think he'll continue to be. He's still a very nice surprise gift we got out of noqhere and tossing that away because he's had a slump 400pa into his career seems silly.

As for Horwitz - he's different than the other younger prospects. It wasn't hard to make a case for him being on this team instead of the likes of Vogelbach - he projected to hit similarly and he was 26 and had plenty of AAA under his belt already.

Schneider Barger Jimenez Orelvis....these guys all came up pretty much the moment they started to hit well in AAA for the first time, all at 22-23yrs of age.

I don't know what it is about this team, but they can't seem to get through a month without at least one player having a miserable, career-worst streak. Schneider isn't even having the worst month - Danny Jansen had a 402 OPS in June. And that's not as bad as Justin Turner's 349 in May. I don't know what the problem is, but I don't think Schneider's any more likely to be washed up than those other guys.

Turner may be washed up. He is 40 next year and is having his worst season since 2013.

Then again, maybe Schneider is Justin Turner. Turner didn't really stick until age 26, and didn't become good until age 29. Although he could play 3B. Schneider's value is tied to his bat.

But if you bet on everyone being Turner or Jose Bautista, you will be poor pretty quick.

I see no need to get rid of Schneider this season. That should give him enough run to tell if its was a bad month or more. I am just saying he needs to be penciled in for 2025 and 2026. No pen yet.

Even Barger might be the exception that proves the rule when it comes to the Blue Jays handling of these players. If the team had managed his debut better, he might be having a better 2024 season. Promoting him in the middle of the night and then starting him out of position in left field, on a severe lack of sleep, with instructions from teammates to hack really hard at pitches, was pretty poor management (in my view).

You really think having a rough debut has caused barger to have a bad year anyway later? I think it's silly to believe these things matter long term. If having to play LF tired messed Barger up long-term, he doesn't have the mentality to be a major leaguer anyway. I don't think players have been called up too quickly or too delayed this year. I would have liked Horwitz up maybe a month earlier but he was learning 2B so keeping him down made sense. Jimenez could have been up earlier but Jays had IKF, Bo, Schneider, Clement, and Horwitz at 2B/SS so didn't make much sense to have him up.

I think the way you introduce a player to the majors can make a big difference. To take another example, Dalton Pompey felt he got bullied early on and he never recovered from that. Should he have gotten over that if he had “the right stuff” to be a big leaguer? Maybe. Or maybe these things actually matter.

Turner isn't washed up - he was very sick in May and should've been put on the IL. By month his sOPS+: 153-4-159-21. July is just 13 PA so I wouldn't put any weight on that 21. But look at April and June - 150+ sOPS+ - basically hitting in hot Vlad territory (Vlad by month: 96-167-162-70). But betting long term on him would be pretty dumb given he is in his age 39 season.

Schneider is slumping bad - his sOPS+ by month: 132-139-48-11. Again, few PA in July (17). Only a moron would dump Schneider this fast imo as he is making the ML minimum this year and next before starting arbitration (assuming no minor league time).

As for age...

• 22: Orelvis Martinez
• 23: Leo Jimenez
• 24: Addison Barger
• 25: Steward Berroa, Alejandro Kirk, Davis Schneider, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (yeah, he started real young)
• 26: Alek Manoah, Brandon Eisert, Spencer Horwitz, Bo Bichette
• 27: Yariel Rodríguez, Génesis Cabrera, Nate Pearson, Zach Pop, Brendon Little, Daulton Varsho
• 28: Bowden Francis, Ernie Clement
• 29: Brian Serven, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Danny Jansen, (Biggo)
• 30+: everyone else

Always interesting to see how Vlad is as young as prospects still. That Bo is the same age as Horwitz. That Rodriguez is the same as Pearson who has been around forever it seems.

Barger is super risky to me.

His track record is crazy inconsistent. His swing is wild. He's old for a prospect.

But he's a good looking kid with a ripped athlete body who probably dated the prom queen.

Horwitz replaced Biggio not Vogelbach.
Because they don't have platoons, they don't have a clear use for the 13th position player.
For anybody to play more, you need someone to play less.

Turner, Springer and Bichette are guys who should have played less at some point.

Biggio, by the way, has been worse with the Dodgers than with the Jays.
He's hit .197 in 39 PA, 2 walks and 14 Ks.

Catchers get banged up and Jansen maybe more than anybody else.
It seems to me that he's usually great out of spring training or coming back from the IL but can't maintain it once he plays with any regularity.

I don't think 24 is old for a prospect, especially considering he lost 2020 to Covid. He was drafted out of high school in 2018 and progressed through the system showing power and a plus arm. Really, any of the prospects like Jimenez, Berroa, etc. should be given ample opportunity to show what they can do for the rest of the season.

I really hope management doesn't ty to add players at the deadline in a fruitless attempt to make the playoffs and save their jobs. Trade the expendable veterans and let the young guys play.

"I think the way you introduce a player to the majors can make a big difference. To take another example, Dalton Pompey felt he got bullied early on and he never recovered from that. Should he have gotten over that if he had “the right stuff” to be a big leaguer? Maybe. Or maybe these things actually matter."

I don't think they matter at all. Pompey failed because he wasn't good enough and maybe part of that not being good enough was being mentally weak, I don't know. These are players who are going to be booed in public, going to be yelled at by fans, going to be publicly questioned by media, going to be harassed on social media. If having to play LF tired is going to mess you up, you aren't going to make it. I refuse to believe that players are this fragile.

[Barger]'s old for a prospect.

He's 24, which is about the average age of a MLB debut.

I don’t know whether that weird first time call up did any harm or not but I do think that “giving a rookie the best chance to succeed” involves regular playing time at a fixed position (hopefully at their best defensive position). The Jays have been in “win now” mode (for good last year and for ill this year) and they’ve been really haphazard with the usage of rookies. I’m not very high on Barger but I would have preferred to see him get regular ABs in the OF for the rest of the season. They’re no closer to knowing what they have in Barger now than prior to bringing him up.

I dont have a problem with them sending down Barger. He was hitting .191 over the last month. A reset in AAA isnt unusual. It seems evident that the game has not slowed down for him yet.

They ought to be playing him at one position (ideally 3B) though. Asking him to play 3B, LF, and RF all while trying to learn the pitchers aint helping.

Thats one of the things I hope they move away from when they can Atkins. Its the ultimate irony that the only one they dont move is Bo, who still struggles at SS (count how many low stretches Vladdy needs to make on routine plays). I assume they have done so to keep Bo happy, yet he has a big sign on his back that says "I'm outta here".

I think there is a limit to how many times they can send a prospect up and down.

Yeah, players can only be optioned 5 times in one season.

Unrelated: Adam Macko has hit the IL, for currently undisclosed reasons.

Thanks Joe.

Erik Swanson was injured while warming up in the AAA game today...

Barger was held back by covid, but he certainly seemed to catch up by 2022.


* 21 (A): 374pa, .333babip, 115wrc+ (old for level)
* 21 (A+): 19pa, .231babip, -6wrc+
* 22 (A+): 292pa, .370babip, 149wrc+ (old for level)
* 22 (AA): 198pa, .390babip, 147wrc+
* 22 (AAA): 36pa, .348babip, 192wrc+ (young for level)
* 23 (AAA): 397pa, .308babip, 92wrc+
* 24 (AAA): 217pa, .292babip, 121wrc+ (old for level)

so post covid....

At age 21 they kept him down in A (where he should have been at 20 except for covid)...where he was just ok. His brief promotion to age appropiate A+ didn't turn out well but it was too tiny to matter.

At age 22 they rightly held him back in A+ and he crushed it. Promoted him to age appropriate AA and he kept crushing it. And then in a brief promotion to AAA he crushed it still. Great season all around and looked like a legit top prospect, albeit with some possible risk looking at his babip.

At age 23 for the first time he started at his age appropriate level, in AAA.....and he wasn't very good. Just a bad year all around. Not only did the babip fall to a more realistic level, but his power mostly disappeared too.

Now at age 24 he was obviously kept in AAA....and was better, but only a bit better. Most of his stats looked the same as the previous year but this year he recovered some of his power again. Solid line in AAA through and through but not exactly demanding an MLB callup.

His callup to MLB has been discouraging, but obviously too small a sample to be too worried about yet. There's obviously a mental component to this and he's likely just trying to do too much. Let's see if these struggles carry back down to AAA with him now.


Bottom line is that he's had only one year that was legitimately top prospect quality - his 22yr old year. But his 21 and 24yr old years have been pretty good too, especially looking at the solid underlying numbers. He should probably turn into a decent MLB yet but the upside doesn't look as high as it used to.

It looks like Brody Brecht might be available to the Jays at #20 on Sunday.

He has a 70 grade fastball AND slider, but control issues (40 control). His fastball is comparable to Paul Skenes.

He seems to have been messed with in college and was dabbling with football.

Would be a high upside gamble if they think they can get him to throw strikes

The Swanson news is tough. He had shown some signs of life in AAA recently, and it would have been nice for him personally to pitch himself back into the majors this summer. The Jays razor thin playoff hopes depend on the bullpen being very good from here on out, and now they can pretty much scratch the possibility of a lucky break in the form of Swanson returning to form

I don't think this team gambles on a pitcher with control issue.

Who knows. He could be a cement head or have a delivery that cant be fixed. But they BADLY need some high end arms. They have Rickety Ricky T and thats about it as far as top of the rotation pitchers go.

And if you ever wanted to trade him, 6'4" pitchers who can throw 101 mph always have value.

Guys who throw that hard get injured a lot and if they need a lot of development the chance of success are pretty slim.

As for needs in '25, a big bat and two starters minimum. The performance of Rodriguez is critical. If he's a solid mid-rotation starter, the Jays could potentially add Tiedemann as the fifth starter 'in 25 and afford to let Kikuchi walk. They would only need to backfill with some quality depth at that point.

I think relying on Horwitz to be an everyday player is unwise. Second base is a position the Jays haven't filled properly since Semien left, and I just can't picture Horwitz carrying the load there, especially defensively.

I should add that "letting Kikuchi walk" could also mean trading him at the deadline for a prospect or two. They are not going to get as much for him as most think though. I guess I'm just in the minority; despite the low probability at this point of getting in the playoffs, I actually think if the bullpen gets it's act together, the Jays will string together some wins and stay in the wildcard race.

Brecht sounds like a guy you need good scouts to check on - does he have control issues due to something obvious (arm angle, too much fiddling from his coaches) that is fixable, or is it due to just not putting in the effort needed to fix it? If it is an effort thing then I wouldn't waste a high pick on him, but if it appears to be arm angle, coaching, something along those lines while he appears to be a hard worker then he might be worth the shot. Pick #20 can produce HOF'ers (Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia should be there someday), and high end players (Torii Hunter, Bob Welch, Rick Rhoden) - not as good as #1 obviously, but the potential is there. 7 20+ WAR players drafted at that slot (including all the names I listed), another 3 in the 10's. Jays had #20 last year and took Arjun Nimmala who looks promising, but in 2009 wasted the pick on Chad Jenkins (1.4 bWAR lifetime). 4 flops (never reached) in the 2000's for this pick plus the 3 most recent who are all still trying to climb the ladder.

It'll be interesting to see what the Jays go after - high school, college. A college player could be ready in 2-3 years or even quicker (if a reliever especially). My rule of thumb is go for the highest ceiling you can - get a Halladay and you are set for years. Flops happen with all slots, #1 overall has one in the 2000's - Brady Aiken (didn't sign, 6.23 ERA in minors). Even last years #1 is in the majors already (Paul Skenes with 2.6 bWAR already and might even start the All-Star game this year). But the Jays have NEVER had a #1 pick. They blew it twice (most infamously with Augie Schmidt who they took instead of Dwight Gooden), aced it once (Lloyd Moseby). Odds are very low they'll find a Skenes with pick #20, or anything amazing (59 players picked with #20, 61% reached the majors, just 10 of star quality (10+ WAR) or 17% - so a roughly 1 in 5 chance of getting something more than a role player - take the risk and go for the guy who has the greatest ceiling, as odds are barely over 50-50 of getting someone who reaches anyways.

Kikuchi is interesting - he seems to genuinely enjoy being in Toronto - maybe he gets resigned for 2-3 more years. Maybe he gets traded, then resigned in the winter. Both possibilities. But with Yariel doing so well right now maybe he won't be needed for 2025. Manoah and Tiedemann might be fighting for that 5th slot in 2025. Then Tiedemann gets it full-time in 2026 after Bassitt leaves (if he doesn't choose to resign here). The rotation seems solid for now and for 2025/26 potentially (of course Tiedemann could turn into Pearson v2 and flop, Manoah could flop again in 2025, etc.). I expect a lot of time and effort will go into the pen this winter as well as figuring out 3B/2B for 2025 and beyond - fix one and put IKF at the other and you could be fine. Horwitz/Schneider both have shown a lot so far but neither is seen as solid at 2B. DH/LF will be open for 2025 - could put Schneider in LF full-time and have Horwitz/Vlad share DH/1B with both getting time in the other infield slots as needed. Wouldn't be shocked if the Jays do seriously chase Alex Bregman in the end. Entering his age 31 season, has pushed his OPS+ back over 100 after a bad start (sOPS+ by month: 67-104-128-132). He'd cost at least 3/$100, maybe more.

Bregman was an elite player worth 8-9 WAR when he was 24.
He's got a .715 OPS and average defense at best this year.

I wouldn't be shocked if he's not signed come March 2025.

scottt - good point, the more I think about it, the more I think it depends on what Bregman demands - if he feels he needs his $30 mil like this year he might be sitting awhile. I doubt anyone will rush to pay him more than $10-$15 per for 3, while he wants $30 per for 5 most likely. I wouldn't be shocked if he takes the QO from Houston in the end should they offer it, to try to rebuild value unless he has a strong 2nd half. If I was his agent I'd be telling him to look at what happened to Chapman last winter and to be reasonable in expectations.

Bregman has been one of the best players in baseball over the last 2 months and has helped carry the Astros back into the playoff hunt. He will be paid handsomely.

If Vlad and Bo leave then we have no stars.

Springer was probably acquired to be our star. IMO he did not work out successfully because there were lots of injuries and DH playing. NYM and others have made FAs very expensive and extensions are not a bargain. See Miggy and think about Judge.

We could hopefully draft a star. Mike Trout was picked #25 in 2009 about 2 months before his 18th birthday. At 6'2" he was not a giant. In the minors he hit for a V high Avg, stole a lot of bases, had a good bb/k and his power was a lot of doubles but not HRs. AA may have drafted him in 2009 depending on what he had done in HS but maybe not because Deck McGuire was AA's 1st pick and he went high floor as far as I know. The Shapiro FO also may have gone high floor with their 1st pick which was Zeuch.

Just speculating on my part.