Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
This 10 game stretch against AL Central opposition concludes with three in the Windy City, beginning with the Memorial Day game this afternoon. 


So far, against the AL Central, the Jays have managed to improve their Run Differential while their Won-Loss record has gotten worse. (Like there was a chance I wouldn't gleefully point that out!)

The Not-So-Handsome One described the 1985 and 1987 teams as "elite" the other day. This took me aback - I certainly didn't think about them like that in the moment. This may largely be a question of semantics - one person's "very good" is another person's "elite" - but for me to consider a team "elite," I think I'd want them to win at least 100 games and/or blow away their division by at least ten games. The Blue Jays have never done either of these things.

It's a very tough neighbourhood they live in, of course. But the other teams have found a way. Since 1977, the Yankees have had ten 100-win seasons (they are, of course, the focus of evil in the modern world.) Baltimore did it in 1979, 1980, and 2023; Boston won 108 games in 2018; even Tampa Bay, who didn't get serious about fielding a competitive team until fifteen years ago, managed to win 100 games in 2021. In the years since 1977, the Blue Jays are one of just three AL franchises who have never won 100 games (the White Sox and Rangers are the others.)

The Blue Jays biggest final margin atop the division is 7 games, by the 1993 champs and the unloved, uncelebrated 1991 team. Every other AL team has had a more decisive win of their own division, and almost all of them have done it more than once. (Even Tampa Bay.) Oakland and Seattle are the only AL franchises who have only topped the Jays best margin once, but both occasions were pretty convincing - Oakland won by 13 games in 1988, Seattle by 14 games in 2001.

Again, this is largely a question of semantics, a matter of one's taste in adjectives, but to my mind the Jays have never had an elite team. They have had some very good teams and have won a couple of championships - which is surely more important, and something not everyone else has been able to do in these last 46 years. Seattle's 116 wins and 14 game margin atop the AL West in 2001 didn't mean all that much in the end.  But the Blue Jays have never blown away their division.  it's not just that they've never won their division by 10 games; they have never even led the division by 10 games, not once. Ever. (The biggest lead was 9.5 games, for three days in August 1985. Then the Yankees got hot.) That season was one of three times when the Jays essentially led the division from wire to wire - the 1991 team's biggest lead was 8 games, the 1992 team's biggest lead was just 5 games. You can't sit back, get comfortable and relax when you're always one bad week away from being back in a dogfight. They've simply never had a dominant team.

Well, it's the White Sox and at least the Jays won't have to deal with Garrett Crochet this time. He pitched against Baltimore yesterday. He struck out 11 in 6 innings, but the Orioles roughed him up for... three hits and two runs? Well, it was enough to hang the L on him anyway.

Matchups

Mon 27 May - Bassitt (4-6, 4.39) vs Nastrini (0-3, 11.91)
Tue 28 May - Gausman (3-3, 4.47) vs Clevinger (0-3, 6.75)
Wed 29 May - Manoah (1-2, 3.97) vs Flexen (2-4, 5.69)
Blue Jays at White Sox, May 27-29 | 120 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
greenfrog - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#446628) #
Possible outcomes:

White Sox sweep: John Schneider gets fired?

White Sox win two of three: John Schneider gets fired?

Blue Jays win two of three: status quo, nobody is really impressed

Blue Jays sweep: Toronto fans feel a tiny glimmer of hope
Ducey - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#446631) #
This from Ben Nicholson-Smith

"Quite obviously, the Blue Jays have already played themselves out of contention for the division. But to match last year’s total of 89 wins, they’d have to finish 66-44, a 97-win pace. If you lower the bar to 84 wins, the lowest of any 2023 playoff team, you’re still looking at a 90-win pace from here on."
Mike Green - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#446632) #
Reminds me of a math question.  The Blue Jays are 23-29 and there are 162 games in a season. In most seasons, 89 wins over the season is enough for a team to make the playoffs.  What % of their remaining games do they need to win in order to achieve 89 victories over the season and be likely to make the playoffs?  The nice round number for the answer is a bonus. 
AWeb - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#446633) #
TO win a lot of games, they'll have to win a lot of games. At least team currently below .500 will play great from here, because it happens every year. Not much to bet on, but I don't like the "play at 97 win pace" type analysis much. If the Jays sweep (ha!), now they "only" need 63-44, a 95 win pace. IF you're going to win 90 games, you have to play above that for significant stretches.
Looking at the team this year, I have no idea who the best player is, and a lack of top-end talent is pretty glaring. Varsho, Guerrero. Jansen, and Schneider are the only possible candidates, and Varsho seems like the only one who could have a sneaky MVP-type season. I haven't looked at the BBRef roster recently, and I know this is stating the obvious after I poked at someone for the same, but my god this team has no power, at all. I loved the stat the broadcast shared the other day - The Jays swing and miss the least, and have the lowest exit velocity. It really summed up why this team is weird to watch hit - they don't strike out, but also don't hit for a decent average.  The Jays take walks, but not at a notably high rate. The Jays also are not a fast team, so they can't exactly find other ways to work for runs.

The bullpen has a similar problem - they don't strike people out. Ironically this bullpen might feast on this lineup - weak contact for everyone.

I haven't kept up with discussions here the past while - any thoughts on the "new" ballpark? Nicer to look at on TV imho, but it has suppressed homers so far.
scottt - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#446634) #
Yeah, but a 90-win pace was the expectation coming out of spring training.
Can Bichette hit .300 the rest of the way?
His worst year, he hit .290 in 2022.

Also, they need a few good months from Turner and Springer offensively.

After padding their stats in Detroit, the Jays have now 5 players with OPS over .700.
Except, the 5th guy is not Turner or Bichette but IKF.

BTW, anyone heard anything about Votto?
Waiting for the winter to announce his retirement?



Mike Green - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#446635) #
AWeb, IKF has been surprisingly good. He's hit for a decent average, will draw some walks, has some pop, runs well, and plays very good defence at 3 infield positions. He's been about as valuable as Guerrero Jr. in much less playing time.
Ducey - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#446636) #
TOR is 23rd in HR so far at .88 per game. They hit .92 per game at home and .86 on the road.

They averaged 1.15 HR per game last year.

So the home stadium may not be the problem.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/home-runs-per-game
Chuck - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#446637) #
For some context, HR are down league-wide. Teams averaged 1.21 last season compared to just 1.04 this season, so a drop of 14% . The warm weather should see this year's rate rise.

The Jays have dropped by 24% from last year, a combination of the league-wide drop and their own doing.

uglyone - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#446638) #


Since 2016

* CLE 699-547 .561, Plyf: 16-16 .500
* TOR 632-614 .507, Plyf: 5-10 .333

Since 2017

* CLE 605-480 .557, Plyf: 6-11 .353
* TOR 543-541 .501, Plyf: 0-6 .000

Last 5yrs

* CLE 319-280 .533, Plyf: 4-5 .444
* TOR 327-271 .547, Plyf: 0-6 .000

This Year

* CLE 36-17 .679
* TOR 23-29 .442
uglyone - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#446639) #

The Blue Jays have now gone 19 games without scoring in the 1st inning.

Per SportRadar, that's the 2nd-longest streak of the MLB season. Oakland went 22 games earlier.

This is one off the Jays franchise record of 20 games, set in 1977.

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 27, 2024
Mike Green - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#446640) #
Home runs from Springer and Bichette addresses three customer complaints with two swings.  Uncharacteristically efficient customer service from Rogers.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#446643) #
The White Sox pitcher Nastrini couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
uglyone - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#446644) #
What was the reason bassitt came out on 81 pitches?
Magpie - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#446645) #
What was the reason bassitt came out on 81 pitches?

I don't think they said, or knew. Something seemed to be bothering him. Did Wilner think it was his neck?
Michael - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#446646) #
Good to get the win.

Funny to hear the commentators sign off after the game with a good day for the offense. On the one hand, sure 3 HR and 5 runs is probably pretty good. But only 6 hits overall and only 2 hits from the top 6 spots in the batting order is not exactly an offensive killing.

Still better to win like this than lose scoring 11.
Nigel - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#446647) #
Is beating the White Sox even a win? They are giving tanking a bad name.
Magpie - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#446648) #
If you would like something encouraging... the problem with Springer this season has been a) he's hitting way more balls on the ground than normal, and b) he's not hitting them hard enough to get them through the infield. So all three balls in the air (flyball for a homer, liner for a hit, pop up for an out) is... better. Baby steps, and all.
Magpie - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#446649) #
Is beating the White Sox even a win?

Cleveland has the best record - 36-17 - in the American League. The White Sox hung 4 of those losses on them, in 7 games. Go figure.
85bluejay - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#446650) #
3 wins against the white Sox constitutes 1 regular win.
Magpie - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#446651) #
The White Sox are 8-5 against Cleveland and Tampa Bay. But let's put it aside for a second.

Because they're 7-35 against everybody else, which is .167 ball. It's not quite Cleveland Spiders territory, but it's getting there. Even the 1962 Mets won more frequently than that.
uglyone - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#446652) #

* Pre-HR Jacket: 47gms, 39hr, 0.83hr/gm
* Post-HR Jacket: 6gms, 10hr, 1.67hr/gm


HR Jacket doubled the HR Rate!
Ducey - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#446653) #
They need to bring back the tight Robbie Ray pants for the bullpen.
scottt - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#446654) #
A win is a win.
They need to win series and go 6-4 or 7-3, ten games after ten games.

In the immediate, they are only a couple of games behind Tampa and Boston.
I would be satisfied with a third place finish as long as they remain in the playoff hunt until the end.
The Texas teams have not  fared better.

For the bullpen, maybe they should make sure the injured pitchers are fully recovered before they add them back. In Sunday's loss, Garcia and Romano were throwing the ball where they wanted, just not getting the calls they wanted. These things happen. Quite often actually. The strikezone is a joke. 

BlueJayWay - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#446655) #
Turns out, scoring more runs than you allow is a good way to win games.
uglyone - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#446656) #
yeeeeesss Robbie Ray pants are a genius suggestion.
uglyone - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#446657) #

Ángel Hernández to retire: Much-maligned MLB umpire calling it quits https://t.co/2m9QJNlkcl

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) May 28, 2024
Chuck - Monday, May 27 2024 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#446658) #
By now, a great many bell has rung to get this Angel to get his wings.
scottt - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#446659) #
 3 HR is very good. 2 HR with runners on base is excellent.
The top guys right now include Schneider who walks at a good pace but is only hiting .241 (that's lower than Bichette who is not having a good year) and Varsho who is hitting .207. Don't expect many multiple hit games from these guys.

IKF is having a good run hitting .270. If you miss his interview following the win in Detroit he was talking about preparing a different swing path for each pitcher depending on what they feature. Never heard about that.

scottt - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#446660) #
When you lose scoring 11, there's a good chance that the ump was terrible and hitters on both side took advantage.
James W - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#446661) #
The umpire was in fact terrible on Sunday, achieving only an 8th percentile in accuracy. He was +1.08 theoretical runs in favour of Toronto, so even with the help of bad umpiring, the Jays were unable to overcome the Tigers.
Joe - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#446662) #
It was Bassitt's neck:
Chris Bassitt is dealing with neck spasms, which is why his day was short.

The #BlueJays weren’t sure if he could even start today and they had some backup plans in place, but Bassitt made it work and John Schneider spoke very highly of that effort.

— Keegan Matheson, 5:03 PM · May 27, 2024

Ducey - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#446664) #
"they had some backup plans in place, but Bassitt made it work"

I'm sure IKF is happy not to have been pressed into service
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#446665) #
I was very impressed with Davis Schneider's approach at the plate in the last PA yesterday.  He had been called out on strikes earlier on two pitches way, way outside, and decided that with a pitcher he could handle on the mound, he was not going to let that happen again.  Fouled off pitches on the outside corner and then off the plate quite a bit.  When the pitcher came in, he was ready.  It was a nice adaptation to an unfair strike zone. 
uglyone - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#446667) #
Yeah even when Schneider struggles he still consistently puts up quality at bats, which is part of why he works at the top of the order.

Pitches per PA:

* 1. Vogelbach 4.60
* 2. Schneider 4.41
* 3. Turner 4.39
* 4. Kirk 4.31
* 5. Jansen 4.16
* 6. Guerrero 4.10
* 7. Biggio 4.10
* 8. Varsho 4.07
* 9. Kiermaier 3.90
* 10. Springer 3.70
* 11. Falefa 3.54
* 12. Clement 3.51
* 13. Bichette 3.35


This is also why the likes of Springer and Bichette can be so frustrating when they're struggling.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#446668) #
For those looking for some entertainment - Angel Hernandez' most entertaining calls which includes a few Jays moments.
Ducey - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#446669) #
Honest question:

Is pitches per plate appearance a good thing? I would have thought it was, but the top 6 teams are Seattle, Pittsburg, TB, TOR, the Dodgers and then the Yankees.

In terms of runs per game, Seattle is 28th, PIT is 23rd, TB 24th, TOR 25th. For the top 4 teams this stat is predictive that they suck offensively.

The Dodgers are 5th, and the Yankees 7th.

The Astros are 29th in terms of pitches per plate appearance , but 10th in runs per game.

I am not sure you can deduce anything from the stat, or perhaps it just needs more context.
Cracka - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#446670) #
Erik Swanson has been optioned to Buffalo to make room for Chad Green -- didn't see that one coming, but Pop and Pearson have been better and deserve to keep their spots for now.
Michael - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#446672) #
IIRC there is a strongish positive correlation between P/PA as hitters and walk rate (which is good for the hitter) as well as an almost but not quite as strong positive correlation between P/PA as hitters and strikeout rate (which is bad for the hitter, although not that much worse than any other type of out). If you combine those there is a very mild positive correlation between P/PA and offensive measures like wOBA or other similar offensive measures.

Also, batters who take more pitches in general are in theory better earlier in the lineup (allow more pitches be seen by others waiting to come up), and on a team basis it also helps to get through strong pitchers in fewer PA/IP by making them work harder. It can also be a little less frustrating because having failure happen in the first minute of an AB is more frustrating than the same failure happening 3-5 mintues into an AB (even if the outcome/result is the same).

That gets to the other reason why the Jays as a whole might have been struggling so much this year - the vicious cycle. If many hitters aren't hitting well then the Jays see fewer pitches, fewer PA, fewer stressful situations on the opposing pitchers. That means the Jays don't get to tired out the team, make their way to the worst bullpen pitchers and the like, which then makes it harder on the Jays as they are only seeing the top 2/3 of the opponents pitching staff as opposed to some very strong offensive team that might be regularly forcing the full bullpen, fully depleted on the team. The same thing in reverse for the Jays pitchers where the struggles of the pitchers is burning the bullpen, putting the bullpen pitchers in more stressful and overused situations, leading to worse performance reinforcing the bad spiral.

Hopefully both can get back to the virtuous cycle where the hitting is contagious (partially from getting to the weaker part of opponents pitching more quickly), and the pitching is a self-reinforcing success story (the way it was last year).
Magpie - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#446673) #
And the Sox put Clevinger on the IL, and call up Jake Woodford to start tonight. If the rain stops.
scottt - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#446674) #
Seattle was on a quest to cut down on strike outs this winter.
TB was a pretty good team last year.
The Dodgers are Yankees still are.
Pittsburgh? We'll see them soon.

Bichette is typically around 3.7 P/PA.
Once in a while, he can foul a bunch of pitches but that's not his typical AB.

James W - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#446677) #
AND... now we're up to 20 games without a first inning run, even with a leadoff double advancing to third with one out.
Ducey - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#446678) #
Bo with another clinic on how not to hit
Ducey - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#446679) #
IKF!
christaylor - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#446680) #
It's an odd one but I hope he doesn't make an appearance in Buffalo and gets to use the time to go home to his son.

I don't know what MLB has as a policy for family leave but I wish he'd been granted it for half a season in ST. Few are Jay Jackson and no one ought to be expected to emulate what he did.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#446681) #
All these players with pedigree and big salaries, and Davis Schneider has quietly posted the second-best wRC+ on the team. And he’s worked his way into the leadoff spot as a regular (remember when Jays management used to suggest he could only be deployed against certain types of pitchers?).

Schneider has been proving everyone wrong his entire career.
Ducey - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#446682) #
Turner looks lost. They sure are giving him a lot of rope.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#446683) #
there's very little reason for Turner to start ahead of Vogelbach tbh.
Nigel - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#446684) #
I think Turner may be toast but there’s a chance that he’s not. The frustrating thing is that even if he’s not toasty he’s still best suited to being a platoon bat. Why they are force feeding an every day role for him makes no sense.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#446685) #
Especially since Vogelbach has always been able to hit RHP.

on another note - a bit of a quick hook on Gausman considering the state of the bullpen. Though gausman was looking a bit tired.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#446686) #
and Turner hits that lefty just fine of course
92-93 - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#446687) #
I don’t like the Gausman pull, but Green’s return and the off-day Thursday played a role.

Managing a bullpen is a a heck of a lot easier when your team actually scores runs.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#446688) #
I think Schneider's done a good job doling out the playing time lately, and that it's unrealistic to expect him to turn the front office's FA acquisition into the weak side of a platoon situation a third of the way into the season. Vogelbach had started 3 of the last 5 games, so an even split sounds about right for now. Wednesday and Saturday they face RHP and Friday is a LHP, so Vogelbach should start those two. If he sits in one of them then we can burn down the house.
electric carrot - Tuesday, May 28 2024 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#446689) #
"Is beating the White Sox even a win?"

To answer Nigel's question from earlier: "Yes it is." Nigel, the win column does not discriminate. It just tallies the number of wins and the standing adjust appropriately from there. As far as I know, the number is not inflected in any way by fan commentary -- no matter how informed, or how voluminous a fan may be in his or her dispiriting commentary.


Nigel - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#446690) #
electric carrot - that was a joke at the expense of an offensive owner in Chicago. I thought that was fairly obvious but I apologize if my voluminous and dispiriting commentary obfuscated that.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#446691) #
I suspect the weather had something to do with Gausman's exit after 87 pitches (normally he'd go one more inning) - he would've probably gotten warm, or started to, earlier just in case the game started on time. Plus the Jays are trying to be careful with him and the other starters as a rule - can't afford to lose any of them right now. No Ryu in the wings this year. Rodriguez and Francis aren't ready yet, and Tiedemann is on the minor league IL. Sigh. If the game is declared over after 8 1/2 then the Jays save 1 pitcher from being used (at least) in Mayza (and no worries about needing to warm up Garcia a second time or Romano). If the game resumes odds are Mayza won't be used as he warmed up, then cooled down fully I suspect with the rain delay. Probably Pop as he didn't pitch yesterday (did pitch in each of the 2 games prior but just 33 pitches total between them), but I guarantee the Jays want this game declared over ASAP.

On the bright side: Nice that Green got an inning in today, and Cabrera survived a near disaster. 3 hits & a walk for Schneider, only Kiermaier didn't get a hit (he did walk). Can't complain about 7 runs on 13 hits and 8 walks, yes they should've scored more but I'll take 7 runs anyday.
Ducey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#446692) #
Woodford came up from AAA IL with an ERA of over 5. I checked his game logs. He didn't pitch vs Buffalo this year.

It would be interesting to see how the Bisons would hit vs him.
electric carrot - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#446693) #
Nigel, I was only playfully answering a question on the page as if it were sincere because it fell so full on my lap as an opportunity to be mischievous. Mostly, I enjoy your informed and dispiriting commentary and don't find it voluminous -- but I do find the tone is quite predictable.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#446695) #
I didn't watch the game, but caught the highlights. Springer looked much better-aside from reaching base 5 times, he ran very well.

Schneider is such a heady player- smart tag on Jansen's fly to deep left in the first, nice slide to avoid a tag when scoring on Bichette's single.

First time in a while when I can say that I wish I had seen the game.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#446696) #
Nov 6/23 the Cubs had no use for Jeremiah Estrada and Brian Little. Estrada claimed on waivers by SD and Little to the Jays for cash. Estrada is doing great in the SD pen. Little is doing well in the Buffalo pen.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#446698) #
Schneider had an excellent game. With the Jays up 3-1 in the 6th he had a huge sac fly with the bases loaded. He fell behind in the count after missing a cookie but fought back to even it up and then did his job with a deep fly that allowed two runners to tag.

It came right after Kiermaier almost killed the bases loaded, no outs threat with a double play (replay was inconclusive). The big names on the team are taking a lot of heat (and deservedly so), but Kiermaier seems to get off free because he can play defense. With a minor league signing like Tommy Pham off to a .294/.344/.429 start and crushing LHP as usual, it's hard not to think the Jays made a mistake bringing back a defensive CF to a team that was starving for offensive improvements.

Is KK's positive WAR even worth anything? I assume Varsho's WAR would be higher if he were playing CF everyday, so KK's presence has just taken PAs away from Schneider, IKF, and whichever RH OF they could've reasonably targeted this winter. Usually when I slag a player they turn it around, so let's hope Kevin gets the bat rolling a little because it hasn't been pretty thus far.
Ducey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#446700) #
Part of the genius of the internet is the power to second guess.

2023
KK 104 OPS+, 3.9 WAR, 2023 Gold Glove, age 34 in 2024

Pham 95 OPS+, 0.3 WAR, never has really played CF except for the now tanking White Sox, age 36 in 2024

You cant fault the Jays on going with KK.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#446703) #
Yeah KK was so good last year i have no problem with that signing. And yes his defense carries that because no matter how poorly he hits he's still super elite in the field which is always useful to have.

but he's been trending up nicely anyways - a rough rough start with a 39wrc+ in April, but a robust 125wrc+ in May so far.

That split is also exactly when the jays put him on the 10-day DL with a left hip issue on April 24 - which might indicate he was trying to play through that injury in April and the DL stint fixed it.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#446704) #
It aint second guessing if people were talking about it all winter.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#446705) #
Plausible Best Lineup using Fangraphs' Combined Projections:

* 1. LF Schneider .340obp, 122wrc+
* 2. SS Bichette .327obp, 122wrc+
* 3. 1B Guerrero .364obp, 142wrc+
* 4. C Jansen .326obp, 126wrc+
* 5. DH Vogelbach .336obp, 113wrc+
* 6. RF Springer .322obp, 111wrc+
* 7. CF Varsho .303obp, 111wrc+
* 8. 2B Biggio .328obp, 99wrc+
* 9. 3B Clement .305obp, 97wrc+

* X. C Kirk .345obp, 116wrc+
* X. PH Turner .326obp, 109wrc+
* X. IF Falefa .307obp, 90wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier .297obp, 90wrc+
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#446706) #
Plausible Best Lineup using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

* 1. LF Schneider 310pa, .381obp, 153wrc+
* 2. C Jansen 279pa, .355obp, 148wrc+
* 3. 1B Guerrero 695pa, .358obp, 122wrc+
* 4. 2B Biggio 382pa, .365obp, 112wrc+
* 5. DH Turner 587pa, .327obp, 109wrc+
* 6. 3B Clement 149pa, .306obp, 102wrc+
* 7. SS Bichette 570pa, .305obp, 98wrc+
* 8. CF Varsho 554pa, .293obp, 98wrc+
* 9. RF Springer 664pa, .316obp, 95wrc+

* X. PH Vogelbach 249pa, .313obp, 105wrc+
* X. IF Falefa 421pa, .321obp, 96wrc+
* X. C Kirk 379pa, .317obp, 90wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 360pa, .290obp, 80wrc+
92-93 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#446707) #
Kirk should be the DH in the projection lineup.

Best lineup using my opinion based on recent play and history:

Schneider
Guerrero
Jansen
Bichette
Platoon DH
Springer
Varsho
Kiner-Falefa
Kiermaier
Michael - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#446708) #
Even if you ignore the fact that people early in the order get more PA than people late in the order and just straight average the numbers for 1-9 in the order from the two lineup that uglyone shares that gives a fangraph's combined lineup of 116 (I.e., 16% above average) and the last year gives a rating of 115 (I.e., 15% above average). Now maybe in off days you use your bench (but the bench isn't disaster in these projections), and the top of your order gets more PA so the average shouldn't be straight (so that should make your average higher). Either way this "should" be an above average hitting/scoring team. If you go by runs the median team is around 235 runs. Even 10% above that would be 257 R and good enough for 7th best offense in baseball, 15% better would be more like 270 runs and tied for 4th best offense in baseball. The actual Jays are at 217 runs, basically nearly a full run a game below what wRC+ suggests from either fangraphs projections or last calendar year (which is doubly bad because some of last calendar year is including this year, so last year's rate would have been even better).
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#446710) #
That's a nice lineup, 92-93.  Schneider at second base is a good call.  Clement has hit lefties well; it sure would be nice if he could play left-field and act as the platoon partner.  I suspect he could, but there's more to it than speed, of course. 

If they're going to continue with the Turner/Vogelbach platoon, I wish they would pinch-run liberally.  For instance, fifth inning, tie game, one out, Vogelbach or Turner reach first.  Lift him for a pinch-runner.  That's how I would play it, given their hitting abilities and lack of speed. 
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#446711) #
92-93 yeah you could slide Kirk in their at DH with the projections lineup for sure. for me he just wasn't far enough ahead of Vogelbach there to make crunching both catchers into the lineup be ideal. But no problem putting him in there really.

and yeah Michael it's a bit weird to see such significant underperfoming. And it's about a large number of guys WAY underperforming their usual level. really don't know what's happened.

Current wRC+ Projections ---> Actual (difference)


* Jansen 126 -----> 163 (+37)
* Falefa 90 ------> 108 (+18)
* Schneider 122 --> 139 (+17)

3 guys well ahead of projections, though the biggest one also missed much of the year to injury.


* Varsho 111 -----> 114 (+3)
* Biggio 99 ------> 97 (-2)
* Guerrero 142 ---> 136 (-6)

3 guys around projections.


* Kiermaier 90 ---> 75 (-15)
* Turner 109 -----> 90 (-19)
* Clement 97 -----> 78 (-19)
* Bichette 122 ---> 89 (-33)
* Springer 111 ---> 76 (-35)
* Kirk 116 -------> 72 (-44)
* Vogelbach 113 --> 68 (-45)

7 guys way below projections.


92-93 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#446712) #
Funny you mention that, Mike. I don’t even think you need to reduce it to close games. Last night Turner had a big 2-run single to put the Jays up 7-1 with two outs in the 8th. Is there more value in leaving his bat in there in case you blow a 6 run lead (and it becomes tied, because he wouldn’t bat again if you lose in the 9th), or is it better to use your first bench player to make sure you add on another run with a double? And if you don’t pinch run and then Turner gets to 2nd on a swinging bunt from Varsho, do you PR now to make sure the runner scores on a single?

There was a game a few days ago that Schneider didn’t put Kiermaier in CF with the lead in the 8th inning because it would have meant losing the DH. Personally I believe worrying about that, especially when it comes to using two catchers in the same game, is completely overblown. The worst case scenario basically never happens, and if it does it isn’t that big a deal anyway.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#446713) #
The problem, Michael, is that the Jays are hitting .230 with a .657 OPS with RISP, 25th in MLB. Will that ever improve?
scottt - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#446714) #
Can't really project Clement, especially with the sparse playing time.
Vogelbach was also under used.

Bichette and Springer have been bad.
Turner had a good start but got sick and totally lost it.
I wonder if hitting behind Bichette is a factor.
Bichette swings at everything.
Kirk, well. Regardless of the projections, a lot of people expected this.
He's got good contact skills but no speed, so he needs to hit the ball hard and in the air.
The other teams know this.

Overall, the opponents are doing a good job of starting ABs with stuff off the plate to guys who chase.
They also focus on the outside corner.


uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#446715) #
I guess I should point out that the Projections i used there were the current projections which include this year's performance so far.

Looking at the Pre-season projections instead....


* Jansen 114 -----> 163 (+49)
* Schneider 112 --> 139 (+27)
* Falefa 83 ------> 108 (+25)

* Varsho 106 -----> 114 (+8)
* Biggio 98 ------> 97 (-1)
* Guerrero 138 ---> 136 (-2)

* Kiermaier 89 ---> 75 (-14)
* Clement 93 -----> 78 (-15)
* Turner 108 -----> 90 (-18)
* Bichette 122 ---> 89 (-33)
* Springer 113 ---> 76 (-37)
* Kirk 116 -------> 72 (-44)
* Vogelbach 113 --> 68 (-45)


Not a huge difference. Interesting that the poor performances of the bottom 7 there have barely changed their current projections.
Ducey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#446717) #
Jays have reportedly shown interest in Ryan McMahon 3B with the Rockies. For some reason, and thankfully for the Jays, the Rockies dont want to trade him.

Lifetime OPS+ of 95 (playing in COL!) in 800+ games who is having a career best season (OPS+ 135). It would seem like the best time for COL to trade him and the worst time for the Jays - as he likely to go back to who he was - someone who is not any better than IKF.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#446718) #
Is a Morosi "report" even worth acknowledging?

OPS+ adjusts for the ballpark, in case anyone else was confused.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#446719) #
Alek Manoah exits the game due to injury.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#446720) #
at first i thought wrist but wrist is dangerously close to forearm is dangerously close to
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#446721) #

Right elbow discomfort for Manoah, per the Jays

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 30, 2024
Ducey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#446722) #
Hazel says right elbow discomfort for Manoah
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#446723) #
This is why the Blue Jays aren't in any position to trade starting pitchers for position players.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#446724) #
not the toughest competition but still that's some clutch emergency work by the pen, especially ol' faithful Richards.

Romano still not right tho.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#446725) #
oh and Sweep!
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#446726) #
Is it possible that Atkins is a trade or two away from transforming this team the way AA was in 2015?
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#446727) #
Odds that Mason Miller gets moved at the trade deadline? Maybe 50%? You know the Yankees, Dodgers and other teams will be making very significant offers to the A's for him. He would be a difference-maker in the postseason.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#446728) #
Hard to see a few trades drastically changing things but lets guess at what would be needed...
  • SP: An ace type to replace Manoah if he is seriously hurt, very expensive to get
  • RP: another LHP and someone to eat innings who is solid. Not a TON of need for a solid setup with Garcia, Green, Romano all in the circle of trust, then Mayza rebuilding, Richards showing his stuff tonight, Pop really making me believe in him again, Pearson & Cabrera both having signs of being good but not to be counted on, Swanson in the minors but should be back in a month hopefully once he gets back to being himself (wonder if the mess with his son pre-season is still on his mind...hard not to be).
  • 3B: this has been a mess, by fWAR the Jays are 19th - 9th in defense, 23rd in wRC+. Strong d there is nice with Bo being beside them but more offense is needed and Ryan McMahon has shown that this year but not in his career (135 OPS+ this year, 95 lifetime), wonder if the Angels would trade Luis Rengifo?
  • 2B: we are #1 - thank you Schneider!
  • DH: #25 - but how to improve? Turner is signed and the Jays seem determined to keep him out there through his slump, Vogelbach showed signs of life but still has a 64 OPS+, Votto won't be ready anytime soon, the Jays seem not to be fans of calling up Horwitz.
  • OF: Varsho is everyday CF/LF, Kiermaier has done poorly but shows signs of life (250/318/475 in May before today), Springer isn't being replaced even with his 194/282/269 line for May pre-today. I'd like to see Biggio or a kid (Barger) called up to play RF more to give Springer 'rest'. Now, this series vs the Sox Springer has been great during but it is vs the Sox so I'd be careful about putting much into it.
The biggest bang for the buck might be 3B or a corner OF/DH - or a starter if Manoah is out for a bit again. An ideal would be a LH hitting OF/DH who is used to/accepts part time play but mashes, plus a powerful 3B. Sadly at 3B I don't see many options teams would be willing to trade, thus the interest in McMahon and why I think Luis Rengifo is worth digging into. For the OF Kyle Tucker would be nice to get out of Houston given they suck more than the Jays this year and he is a heck of a hitter but that'd be a kings ransom+ if they even would consider it. Brandon Nimmo with the Mets the Jays wanted and they might be willing to part with given they suck for the 2nd straight year but that'd screw the budget badly. Not easy to try to think of who'd work.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#446729) #
Hmm... hadn't looked at the A's - Abraham Toro is interesting - age 27, a Canadian (always a plus) and has a 118 OPS+ this year at 3B, but just an 85 lifetime, but was a solid 279/371/466 in the minors. He is a Jays type of guy - lots of time at 2B, 3B, some at 1B, LF, DH this year. In the minors he even caught 15 games. Given his age and lack of ML success pre-2024 he might be cheaper to get but might be a good fit. His defense tends to be a negative it seems, but with IKF on the roster that is secondary. Wonder what Oakland would want for him?
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 29 2024 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#446730) #
Any serious moves are likely to happen in the couple of weeks before the trade deadline (although it’s always interesting to think about who might be available).
Ducey - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#446731) #
Ricky T is apparently back throwing. That's excellent.
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#446732) #
John,

I was thinking more along the lines of a AA type move to push the team over the top. Acquiring a controllable player on a larger contract like he did with Tulowitzki in exchange for a player with less to pay down. Then also acquiring a stud player like he did with David Price except I would expect adding two offensive players and no pitchers.

Trading George Springer, Alek Manoah and Orelvis Martinez to LA for Mike Trout for the pleasure of paying him 37,000,000 per year for the next 7 years.

Then Trading away Ricky Tiedeman for Jazz Chisholm in Miami.

Bichette SS
Chisholm DH
Guerrero Jr 1B
Trout RF
Jansen C
Varsho LF
Schneider 2B
3B IKF
CF Kiermaier


Biggio, Kirk, Vogelbach, Clement
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#446733) #
Maybe put Trout at DH and Chisholm in RF
Ducey - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#446734) #
Lol. The Jays sweep a AAAA team and people are raising go for it options. Right now they need a DH, a right fielder, a backup catcher, a better SS, a 5th starter and most of a bullpen.

It's like Atkins would be playing 5 card draw and changing 3 cards. Better to fold.
uglyone - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#446735) #
Don't doubt The Jacket, Ducey.
Michael - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#446736) #
Yeah, and I know it is sort of the definition of insanity to expect a different outcome with the same thing, but even without any changes the team if they hit like the projects that uglyone was showing is the injection of talent to change things around, even without counting any AAA callups. And the pitching staff, especially if Manoah turns out not to be seriously injured (as he was looking better on the pitches today again) is starting to come around on the starting rotation and if that can take pressure of the bullpen and the bullpen can revert closer to form, this can be a playoff team again even without adding anyone.

Just believe in the jacket, and be a bit smarter with the lineup construction (play the 4 guys who are hitting pretty much everyday, Jansen at DH when not catching), and we could well get lucky again.
bpoz - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 06:46 AM EDT (#446737) #
About 2 months until the trade deadline. Will the standings change enough to consider making significant moves?

NYY, Baltimore, Cleveland and KC have a strong grip on the AL E & C divisions as well as 2 WC spots. Someone will win the AL W which leaves 1 WC spot available. There may be 8 teams fighting for that last WC. I don't think any of these teams will make a significant move to win it. However I can see a Berrios/Louis Castillo type trade being made to strengthen the future via an extension.

A rebuild/retool is very likely for the Jays. Promote at least 2 position players or more to replace Vogelbach and Turner or more. Maybe trade 1 or 2 pieces from the pen that will not really weaken the pen. Then hope for the best.

4 100 win teams have taken away a lot from the WC race.
scottt - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 07:15 AM EDT (#446738) #
3B: this has been a mess, by fWAR the Jays are 19th - 9th in defense, 23rd in wRC+.

Well, IKF has now a .729 OPS and has looked really good defensively.
Just the last 2 games he's made 3 leaps to catch balls.
Most of the bad defense has come from Clement. Bad throws, lobbing balls in the dirt which Turner couldn't handle while IKF yesterday was throwing hard and true to him.
Offensively, Clement has a .631 OPS.

Clement is the platoon mate for KK. Schneider has made himself a regular.
Maybe you just play Clement at 2B from now on?

scottt - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#446740) #
Acquiring a controllable player on a larger contract like he did with Tulowitzki in exchange for a player with less to pay down. Then also acquiring a stud player like he did with David Price

They replaced Reyes who had a 92 OPS+ with Tuly who ended up with an 89 OPS+.
The problem with Reyes was his defense.
Price was just a pricey rental.

They had nobody who could catch a ball in LF. They brought Revere who was a 101 OPS+ switch hitter. Otherwise they were in love with Ezequiel Carrera who was bad defensively and had an 88 OPS+.
They also acquired Cliff Pennington and Darwin Barney.
Barney was at AAA for the Angels and got hot in the 15 games he played in Toronto.

The upgrades this year should just be calling up some guys from Buffalo.
My view is guys like Turner will have to drop in the batting order before they get replaced.

To me, the only big trade possible would be to flip Bichette for a top 50-100 prospect.
That prospect would probably still be in A ball.

Now, the other way, the Mets are 22-33 and Pete Alonso is a free agent.
That is the obvious big rental on the board.

bpoz - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#446742) #
After the 2015 trade deadline the Jays won a lot. Was it as high as .700? I could not believe it but I enjoyed it. That winning pace if repeated would be incredible.
85bluejay - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#446743) #
Print the Playoffs tickets NOW!
Glevin - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#446747) #
Don't think the Jays need to do much right now. Most teams are in a holding pattern. I don't like the Vogelbach/Turner thing much though. It means Jays have 3 players who are full time 1b/dh. If you're DH isn't going to hit, I'd rather use spot to rest guys. Horowitz has been playing all over the diamond. If he can hack it at 2B, you're talking about a very different sort of player. A 110-115 WRC+ (projected by projection systems) isn't great at 1B but at 2B is very good. Also, I kind of like IKF now. Wasn't expecting it, but he seems like someone who works really hard to maximize their talents. Sort of a perfect utility+ player.
scottt - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#446748) #
The AL West is the division where a middling team could go all in and finish first this year.
Angels and A's aren't doing it.
Rangers are 27-29 but are probably not in a place to trade prospects.
Astros are 24-32. They are possibly at the end of a window. They have lots of stars and some glaring holes. They are just 6.5 games back of Seattle. Just give them an ace.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#446749) #
I thought at the start of the season that this club was going to finish below .500, but paradoxically the poor start by "the core" may have benefited them by forcing changes that will work out well in the long-run. 

In order to be a playoff contender, they need to have middle of the pack pitching.  The Detroit Tigers staff is now 13th in the major leagues in fWAR with an ERA of 3.85, and underlying metrics that support that.  Right now, the club has these pitchers whose reasonable expectations are consistent with that: Gausman, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Berrios, Garcia, Green, Rodriguez.  Pearson, Pop, Richards, Francis, Romano and Mayza could plausibly contribute in a way that fits with this, and the club needs three of them to do so.  Maybe Tiedemann can pitch in at a level that will help the club.  They would be well advised to acquire a couple of more relievers. 

The position player situation is fine, in my view.  I think they are going to score 4 and 1/2 runs a game from here on out, and play league-leading defence.  They need to make sure that Springer gets a day off a week, with Biggio getting time in right-field.  With that, I think that Springer will be fine.  Jansen needs to get some time at DH and a day off a week, with Kirk catching.  And I hope they don't keep shuttling Schneider into left- field.  All the metrics say that he has been above average at second base and below average in left-field, and that's what my eyes tell me also.  He's got a different skill set than many second basemen- catches well, accurate throws on all the routine second base plays, quick first step and first-rate instincts.  He's not going to make the very good play up the middle because he has neither the speed to get there nor the arm for the difficult throw, but those plays are much less common than the ones in the 3-4 hole.  And those he's very good at.  In Schneider's major league career so far, he's had 312 PAs and 3.2 fWAR (and 2.9 bWAR).  6 WAR players don't come along every day, and maybe he isn't that but rather a 4-5 WAR player.  Those don't come along so often either. 
92-93 - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#446750) #
Kiner-Falefa gives me Scutaro vibes. Obviously not the same type of hitter, but just in terms of the expectations when he joined the team and the subsequent production.
uglyone - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#446753) #
Cool comp.
uglyone - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#446754) #
Truth is going 6-4 in this 10gm AL Central stretch isn't as good as it should have been. Now if they sweep the pirates here to get us back to .500 after this soft stretch in the sked then maybe we can start dreaming a bit.

And yeah there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, as long as we dig ourselves out of this hole quickly enough.

Not only are most of the hitters hitting well below expectations, but we also had our Ace starter be injured and mediocre, and the back end of our bullpen blow up entirely. There's plenty of reason to believe all that will correct itself.

But we gotta dig ourselves out of the hole quickly.
Joe - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#446755) #
[T]he Jays are hitting .230 with a .657 OPS with RISP, 25th in MLB. Will that ever improve?
It already has!

March/April Blue Jays with RISP: 69 wRC+, last in baseball.
May Blue Jays with RISP: 115 wRC+, 8th in baseball.

John Northey - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#446757) #
To me the big question is next week vs the O's. Do well and then trades to improve in 2024 might make sense. Get slaughtered and it is time to get serious about giving kids time in the majors. Ideally do well this weekend to ensure the setup is there. A sweep and 500 pre O's would be nice.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#446758) #
The new uniforms will be unveiled today.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#446759) #
IKF's Baseball Savant page is pretty interesting. He rarely strikes out (96th percentile Whiff%, 90th percentile K%) and he has good Launch Angle Sweet Spot score (80% percentile). On the other hand, his exit velocity, bat speed, barrel% and hardhit% are very low (three of those stats are in the 1st-3rd percentile). And his BB% is 25th percentile.

The overall package, including good defense and average-ish baserunning, has worked out well so far in 2024.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#446763) #
An interesting thing about IKF is that he's always had quite respectable maximum exit velocity numbers, similar to what Davis Schneider can manage, in fact. But he's clearly determined that he's a better hitter with a singles-oriented swing most of the time.
John Northey - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#446764) #
Sometimes guys need to learn where their skills are best used - hit the ball hard and in the air is encouraged, but if you can't get it over the fence it might not be worthwhile. See Kiermaier (he openly talked about going for more power pre-season, after last year going for average and not trying for homers) as an example. Vlad was trying to get the right launch angle it seemed and was not performing despite great EV numbers, then focused on getting hits and the stats jumped. Players need to focus on being the best they can be with their skills. With what got them to the majors.
uglyone - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#446765) #
A lesson in sample size:

April

* 1. LF Schneider 74pa, 136wrc+
* 2. CF Varsho 102pa, 135wrc+
* 3. DH Turner 109pa, 153wrc+
* 4. C Jansen 31pa, 182wrc+
* 5. 1B Guerrero 136pa, 102wrc+
* 6. 3B Clement 57pa, 103wrc+
* 7. 2B Biggio 88pa, 101wrc+
* 8. SS Falefa 89pa, 100wrc+
* 9. RF Springer 128pa, 84wrc+

* X. IF Bichette 118pa, 67wrc+
* X. C Kirk 78pa, 60wrc+
* X. PH Vogelbach 23pa, 57wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 62pa, 40wrc+


May

* 1. LF Schneider 100pa, 135wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 108pa, 179wrc+
* 3. C Jansen 79pa, 156wrc+
* 4. SS Bichette 100pa, 120wrc+
* 5. 3B Falefa 84pa, 119wrc+
* 6. CF Kiermaier 48pa, 110wrc+
* 7. 2B Biggio 37pa, 89wrc+
* 8. RF Varsho 96pa, 82wrc+
* 9. DH Vogelbach 32pa, 76wrc+

* X. C Kirk 31pa, 118wrc+
* X. OF Springer 82pa, 71wrc+
* X. IF Clement 44pa, 46wrc+
* X. PH Turner 75pa, 1wrc{
scottt - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#446770) #
I don't think the O's matter that much actually.
They Jays aren't playing for the division win.
Realistically, it will take everything they have just to get that last wild card.

Getting swept would be a huge blow, but they can bounce back from losing the series almost immediately.

scottt - Thursday, May 30 2024 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#446771) #
I'd be scared to DH Jansen. He's never been durable. They need him behind the dish. Badly.
Maybe DH Schneider and play Biggio at 2nd? Or something.

Clement is the infield UT. He's also a platoon with KK.
The calculus is that he improves the infield defense which balances Schneider in LF.
Schneider has played a fair but of LF in Buffalo.
The complication is that they think Clement is best at 3rd, so they play IKF at 2nd.
That hasn't worked out very well. Maybe the plan if Bichette is unable to play is to have IKF move to SS and Clement to third. I don't know. Clement has looked better at SS than at 3b, but the sample is tiny.

Right now, I really don't want to see Clement throwing to Turner again.
Maybe they should do a lot of infield drills together.

John Northey - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#446772) #
FanGraphs has an interesting article where they update ZiPS standings at the 1/3rd mark (damn, hard to believe 1/3rd of the season is done). Jays are projected to be 3rd in the AL East and to be just outside of the 3rd wild card, 4th place for it 3 games back (Yankees-Twins-Royals for the 3 with divisions being Baltimore-Cleveland-Seattle). To get that final wild card you need between 83.1 and 90.7 wins based on 1000 simulations. Jays odds of winning the AL East is 3.0%, getting a WC is 29.7%, overall playoff odds of 32.7%, 2.1% shot at the title. 76.5-88.6 wins overall, 83 the most likely.

No big shocks there. The Astros are projected at 81 wins but because the AL West is a weak division they still have a 21.5% shot at winning it. Only the White Sox have a 0% shot at the playoffs, but sub 1% are the Rockies, Marlins, and A's (would love to see the miracle set of circumstances that gets the A's in). The Marlins and Astros both have dropped faster than the Jays in playoff odds since opening day btw. Biggest gains are the Phillies and Royals.
scottt - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#446775) #
Thoughts on the City connect Jerseys?
I like them. The dark colors seems to echo the older uniforms.
I like the cap less. The internal skyline is just weird.
The big T reminds me of other teams, Texas, Twins, etc.

Btw, apparently Encarnacion and Joey Bats are at the Jays shop this morning promoting them.

bpoz - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#446781) #
I don't know how long a window lasts. I guesstimate 5-7 years most likely. Both the Jays and Seattle are in their window because they built it nicely. NYY are in their window because they spent a lot of money. These factors seem to be accurate to me but feel free to disagree and correct me.

The draft will be held soon. There are 18 non playoff teams and they all should pick ahead of the playoff teams. But they don't so I will need help understanding why. Seattle with 88 wins were the best non playoff team ahead of Arizona and Miami. They get the 15th pick because nonplayoff NYM, NYY and SD were penalized for some reason I believe. I watched the draft lottery and Cincinnati got very lucky to pick 2nd. I think Seattle could have picked higher with more luck but I am not sure.

I mention this because I am quite sure that the Jays will have Seattle's fate in the next 7 years while still being competitive like the 2023 Seattle team and the 2021 Jays. Missing the playoffs will be hard but we could get a good draft pick with luck which will help with any rebuild.
Ducey - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#446782) #
From Mlb.com:

The Mets', Padres' and Yankees' first picks dropped 10 spots because they exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax by more than $40 million.
bpoz - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#446783) #
Thanks Ducey.
Ducey - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#446786) #
Was looking at some Mocks for the draft. The New York Times has the Jays taking Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State.

They say:

I’ve heard the Jays more on college bats than any other category, which makes sense in this draft class as the best high school hitters and college arms who’ll still be available would probably be reaches at this spot.

So we might want to expect a college bat (although I guess they could go HS pitcher too). The guy they mock with the next pick (Twins) is a college switch pitcher!
scottt - Friday, May 31 2024 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#446787) #
I only remember 2 cases were I had heard of the guy the Jays picked in the mocked draft.
That was Warmoth a long time ago and Manoah more recently.

Blue Jays at White Sox, May 27-29 | 120 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.