Career numbers against Bassitt aren't very good for these guys.
Betts is  2 for 13, Othani 5 for 25, Freeman 2 for 8, Teoscar 1 for 4.
All the others are worst.

Turner is 1 for 2  against Stone and that's it for the Jays.

20-year-old Jackson Holliday has been optioned to the minors. He was hitting .059 in the majors with a 50% strikeout rate. Tough debut for him. Hopefully he makes it back soon and gets untracked.

Ohtani's home run travelled only 360 feet? Clearly his .364/.424/.700 slash line is overrated.

The Jays offense better wake up this weekend or it's probably a Dodger sweep.

Varsho's gotta hit the cutoff there.

Muncy should give Springer and Vlad some tips on how to turn on a middle in fastball.

LAD has a fantastic lineup 1-6.

mercy

Man, the way teams are running on the Jays like a mosquito house league team is embarrassing.

What's incredible is that the Dodgers are missing Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May, three front end starters. They're also down a high leverage reliever in Blake Treinen.

fun team we got here.

Anyone want to start a pool predicting who gets fired and when: Schneider or Atkins?

Very glad I didn't watch this game under the assumption this embarrassing trash would happen.

The Blue Jays have three hitters in their lineup with a 700+ OPS.

If things go south quick (or the team is still in last place in a month or so) I'd love to see DeMarlo Hale get a shot.

it all stems from Shapiro. doesn't matter if the shuffle the underlings.

Schneider goes first, but not yet.

I think Shapiro has insulated himself enough to where he's almost untouchable. I doubt the Rogers bigwigs would move against him so soon after the Dunedin remodeling and the Rogers Centre renovations. He would have to clean house if the Jays dont turn it around this year. I bet you anything Rogers gives him another few years to try it again. Which is asinine...but I just get the feeling the guy has the golden handshake with
ownership.

oh yeah for sure he has.

there's just so much heart and never quit on this squad.

Isn't someone going to chime in to say they're only a game out of a playoff spot, so stop being so negative?

I was out biking and only just got home to check the score now an—-OH GAWD that’s not… good at all. Ohhhh no….

Basketball and guitar it is tonight. Stinging criticism and/or/maaaybe nuggets of optimism later.

Time for a clubhouse players only meeting?

It's just so alarming to see how far off this team is from expectations. The players collectively falling off a cliff. The continued presence of management and coaches saying the right things without absorbing any accountability and most of all a front office that appears to be "gleaming" over their "new" stadium and "star" players that they have.

High payroll
Under performance on field
On drafting
On development
On planning

cupholders tho

Even things like Alek Manoah somehow being in the dugout with the team despite the fiasco surrounding him the last calendar year sits wrong with me. What manager/front office/coaching staff allows this? From what we know, the guy mutinied against the organization and hasn't pitched a game in the big leagues this season, nor has his performance even come close to warranting it. If his name was Roger Clemens or Justin Verlander, sure, you could understand it. The only explanation I can think of is perhaps he is receiving medical treatment or taking advantage of resources in Toronto. Even them...really?

*then

I'll predict Schneider is no longer manager on Tuesday.

firing one of the 25 coaches/managers on the team will surely make a huge difference.

The only way management at any level changes is if tv ratings are in the toilet The team is still in eyeshot of the playoffs (vs Houston who have to be getting close to panic mode) and selling nearly every overpriced ticket in the park. To Roger's that equals profit and by far that is #1 to them.

I miss the 2021 Blue Jays — specifically, the roster that was in place when they swept Baltimore to end the season. That team could have strongly competed for a World Series title.

VGJ 6.3 fWAR
Semien 6.0 fWAR
Bichette 4.9 fWAR
Teoscar 4.0 fWAR
Springer 2.6 fWAR (342 PA)
Espinal 1.9 fWAR (246 PA)
Gurriel Jr 1.8 fWAR
Jansen 1.5 fWAR (205 PA)
Kirk 0.7 fWAR (189 PA)

Pitching: Ray, Ryu, Berrios, Manoah, Matz, Mayza, Romano

That was a really good team that barely missed the playoffs (due to an ineffective manager, a few key injuries, and Brad Hand). They finished 91-71 but had a Pythagorean record of 99-63. One of the best Blue Jays teams in history.

Unfortunately the team has been gradually declining since then. This year’s slogan is “To The Core,” but 2021 is when the core was actually great.

Colour me shocked that a team that did absolutely nothing to improve in the off-season continues to regress.

It is funny - I don't recall seeing this much frustration for any Jays team and my first game was in 1978 (Jays pounded by Yankees 11-3). The 1994-2014 period was horrid, with teams that danced around 500 but never could get to 90 wins or seriously contend for a playoff slot, same in 2017-19. But in each era we had hope for something better. It feels like the hope is lost right now, much like in 1988-90 when it felt like the great teams we watched for 1985-1987 (plus damn fine but no closer in 83/84) were falling apart. Thinking about it, it seems the better the team is expected to be, the more frustrated the fan base gets with no progress. I suspect the Jays could be on a 100 win pace and we'd still see lots of negativity due to no playoff wins, which can't be changed until October. I know we saw that post 1987 for sure.

My gut says this year is the final Vlad & Bo one, as that era goes down like the Bell/Moseby/Barfield one did (all 3 were the same age born within 15 days of each other). With zero playoff series wins and a feeling of disappointment about what could have been/should have been but wasn't. We need a Cito Gaston type to come in and grab the reins it seems, plus some blockbuster trade that shifts the team to the next stage, the 91-93 one where titles were not just possible but happened. How? A crazy trade that we don't see coming, and/or kids coming up and starting the next wave - this has started with Schneider last year, Barger now, and Orelvis soon to be the core of the next team. The question is how will it happen and will the Vlad/Bo era come up with a surprise in 2024 somehow?

Right now I'm feeling very not-confident when Bassitt takes the mound - could he be hurt and hiding it? Gausman is starting to get back to normal. Berrios has been great, Kikuchi too. Yariel Rodríguez has been a solid #5 so far, shows signs of being more in 2025 (I'd say he is part of the youth movement but at 27 isn't that young). If Manoah can come back strong (not betting on it right now) then the rotation could be very good. Only Kikuchi is a free agent after 2024, Bassitt after 2025, Gausman post 2026, Berrios post 2026 (opt out or stay for 27-28). Rodriguez 2028 (mixed player ($6 mil) /team ($10 mil) options for 2028). The pen is hard to say - all relievers are unreliable outside of Rivera imo (I remember a time when Jay fans had no faith in Henke).

As to the runs, I think the lineup may be non-optimal. Stats are before the LAD mess. #1 in PA for RISP is Vlad (which the Jays want I'd think), #2 though is Kirk. Then Springer/Turner tied in PA, one above Bo. Kirk & Vlad have not hit at all in those situations - both have sub 500 OPS with RISP, as does Springer. Bo & Turner are over 800 OPS in that situation, and at 20 PA is Varsho with a 750. So clearly getting Vlad on track is critical and no one seems to know how to do it, and it is very safe to say he is the one who is most frustrated by it too. They need to find a way to keep Kirk from hitting (maybe move to #9 when he plays for now). With no one one Vlad has a 876 OPS (385 OBP), Turner 1.185, Bo just 490 (yikes). Springer has the most PA and a 761 OPS (but just a 314 OBP) so keeping Bo from hitting with bases empty is good, getting Vlad more time with no one on might be good too (weird as that sounds) so maybe do the weird thing - Vlad lead off, Turner #2, keep Bo #3, Varsho #4, Springer #5. Hell, at this point it couldn't hurt to try just to give a few guys a kick in the pants that might help them focus.

Teo on the Blue Jays game planning versus the Dodgers’ game planning (per Sportsnet):

Hernandez had a couple singles Friday and is batting .267/.336/.486 with six homers and 20 RBIs, benefiting both from being in a deep Dodgers lineup and the club’s well-regarded game-planning. While Bassitt summed up his rough outing by saying “adjustments have got to be made,” the Dodgers hitters were definitely ready for him.

“The way they prepare their games and all the plans and all that stuff, it's a little different than the ones that I've been with,” Hernandez said of the Dodgers’ process. “That makes a difference when you’re going to play games.”

The fans booing Ohtani was quite lame. I should say is since I reckon they're not done with it yet.

Agreed, greenfrog. A lot of the current issues stem from the failure to recognize the value of Semien. That offseason, they lost Ray and Semien and added Gausman, Kikuchi, and Yimi Garcia (all good moves, Kikuchi less so, probably due to the term and overall dollars being on the high side) resigned Berrios (this year especially, looks good).

But perhaps the team just used run prevention too much in their overall calculation, or just flat out botched the Semien negotiations, or overvalued who they had replacing him, who knows? Probably all three. But greenfrog, hard to argue with your assessment there.

We were also told after the season by Shapiro that there wasn't enough money to resign Semien and Ray.

I think Schneider goes and it makes a difference to the performance of the team because it doesn't look like the players want to play for him. Between the information that he just about lost the room last year, the fiasco to end 2023, the same core players turning in the previous manager and the apathetic play the last few games ... it all looks like a shake up is in order.

Mark Shapiro has gone on record to say 40 games is his evaluation cut off for sample size. That's two weeks away. No way this team loses a winnable series to the Royals and then gets steamrolled by LA followed by another series loss to KC...if that happens I think they need to change Schneider for Hale.

There does seem to be a bit of the Hillenbrand “play for yourself” vibe on the team lately (as opposed to a selfless team approach). I’m thinking of:

-Vladdy’s comment a couple of weeks ago, “Whether it’s this team or another team, they’re going to have to pay me”

-Some players on the team giving Barger the hitting advice, “get a good pitch and take a big hack at it”

-Bo (according to a post by a Bauxite on this site) reportedly saying something to the effect that he’s been overswinging at the plate early this season because home runs are what gets you paid as a player

Much of the Jays problems is that they put much of their eggs in the Vlad/Bo basket and they just haven't delivered as expected.

The team’s biggest current issue by a country mile is a lack of elite talent which to me is a function of long term risk adversity from management and mediocre drafting and development. Vladdy and Bo are the last homegrown impact (ie league average or better) players to be added to the team and the near term horizon doesn’t look promising.

To me, this team still looks exactly what I thought (maybe I misread the consensus of the board) it was expected to be - a fringe playoff team and a continuation of the problems (and strengths) of last year’s team. I don’t think firing managers or even GM’s is going to change the current trajectory.

A new GM is exactly what this team needs. The front office sticks stubbornly to players/approaches even when they clearly don't work. And a fresh face would also not be hesitant to cut ties with players acquires by the previous regime.

But after sinking so much money into the Rogers Centre to try and attract money (instead of hardcore fans and families) to the ballpark, they're not going to go into a rebuild, which is what this team needs but it's spiraling down into a bad org trap like the Tigers, Angels, White Sox...

I don't blame the team at all for walking away from Semien at the term/money that Texas gave.

Agreed about the lack of talent coming up. Addison Barger reminded Buck of Eric Hinske in 2002, and I thought that was a really apt comparison both in body type and playing style/profile/attributes. He will be a decent player but nowhere close to the type of impact bat that makes a difference for this team.

Although looking at Hinske's rookie year, I'd obviously take that from Barger in a heartbeat....and so would the Jays given their current predicament.

Frustration is probably a result of this being the 2nd longest tenured front office in jays history, with the least amount of playoffs sucess, combined with the feeling that it's a team past it's peak already.

I think this time everything is different. This FO and the fans are all sensing an unavoidable realization that "the core" is not good enough and there isn't a plan B or alternative for this year that doesn't require a big shake up to fix.

Nigel, the reason you're not surprised by the results but it sounds like you're surprised by the posters is simple...you regard this team as a Fringe playoff team. Others such as myself are now considering this team as a non contender.

The offense has bottomed out:

Springer on quick decline
Vlad a good player not superstar
Kirk below average

That basically leaves Turner and Bo to do the heavy lifting.

A recent caller to the post game show had a good observation to yesterday's game. He called in and said things just look listless. For example, Bassit did not have his game together and it was clear from the beginning of the game. Instead of adjusting to WIN the Jays simply sat idly and watched as Bassit tried to get to an IP goal. Caller said they are managing to protect bullpen, to hit innings etc rather than simply managing to win...they are following set plan from before the game. I completely agree with this and it goes back to the last game of the 2023 season.

Shapiro did a rare interview in a podcast yesterday and conceded that this team is basically at the mercy of the "super star" players playing as such. He made it seem like changes (if they happen at all) would come around June/July. I don't think they have that much time.

Another interesting point someone in the media has made...if Bo and Vlad are "the core," then why the hell haven't you signed them long term?

Vladdy has gone from being a 6 WAR player to being (perhaps) a 1 WAR player (he’s currently at zero WAR in 2024). That is a devastating blow to this supposed window of contention.

Bichette is also at exactly zero WAR this year.

The Shapiro/Atkins front office has a pretty strong record on free agents, I think. Springer is turning out not to be a good deal, but it's hardly disastrous, and most of their other signings have worked well. And even if their most consequential trade, Varsho/Moreno ends up panning out poorly, their trade record is pretty decent too.

It's in drafting, international free agency, player development and trades that this front office has fallen short. They have not hit on a first-round pick apart from (perhaps debatably) Manoah, and a lot of their drafts look pretty bleak: 2017, 2018, 2020. 2019 and 2021 are looking pretty dependent on Manoah and Tiedemann, respectively. And it's not as if they've been making up for it on the international market.

Much of the Jays problems is that they put much of their eggs in the Vlad/Bo basket and they just haven't delivered as expected.

I think this is largely it. Just check out Bo and Vlad's combined fWAR from 2021...then what it was in 2022, then 2023, and so far this year. The rebuild was predicated around those two being superstars (and Springer remaining one) and they've all declined precipitously. That's really the problem in a nutshell. It's hard to recover from that.

I generally agree, although there have been some good IFA signings (Orelvis) and trades (Teoscar).

The front office seems to take a long time to learn from its mistakes (e.g., Montoyo). Every year seems to involve a version of, last year we made some mistakes, but we’ve learned from them and will be better. Remember when Atkins said they felt confident that providing the team’s hitters with “better information” would lead to better offensive results in 2024? With the exception of Varsho, the results have actually been worse.

As long as slick talking Shapiro has the ear of Ed Rogers I don't expect the approach to change - and if the revenue streams are good, Shapiro will likely reign. Cleveland did a smart thing when the essentially moved Shapiro from the baseball side of operations.

But they didn't put many eggs in the vlad/bo basket at all. They were free adds to the team and don't have big salaries.

dalimon - maybe this is all a function of expectations. I never viewed this year’s team as a contender. I think my prediction on the pre season thread was 84-86 wins and miss the playoffs (aka a fringe wildcard contender). My point (poorly stated:)) was just that the offseason decision was to run it back for reasons related to stadium renovations etc when I think it was obvious that this past offseason, from a purely roster building perspective, was a key inflection point to either invest in the team to make it better or to start a tear down. This is the same team essentially as last year and I’m just a bit surprised that folks are surprised that it’s getting the same general results.

Nigel - how could you not be frustrated that in year 9 of this FO, with a big payroll, they're trotting out an 85 win team?

Especially as this represents the downward slide of a build that never even peaked high? And that has very little future?

Oh I was plenty frustrated over the offseason:) I was writing grouchy posts about how the offseason plan made no sense from a baseball perspective. Plenty of posters didn’t like my grouch (which I totally understand). I guess I’m over that part for now. I’m back to enjoying baseball season and have enough perspective to know that following a fringe playoff team beats the hell out of some alternatives. In general though, I’ve always thought that the current front office was sort of “meh”. You could definitely do much worse but the Jays have had better. I can understand those clamouring for a change. I’m just not sure that the business/marketing side of this is going to allow for a material change of direction in the near term. There’s zero chance of a rebuild coming near term after all the money spent on the stadium.

I’m just not sure that the business/marketing side of this...

Which is really the essence of what this is, isn't it? The owners have their metrics. The fans have theirs. The Venn Diagram shows an overlap, but not as big as the fans would hope.

On a more micro level it just boggles my mind they haven't been able to fix Vlad to at least get him back somewhere close to the '21 version. Minor league parks or not, as Joe Siddall and others have pointed out, his swing mechanics have noticeably changed. So much has been made of the swing decisions, but I can live with more strikeouts if the guy could just consistently hammer mistake pitches into the left field seats.

"Which is really the essence of what this is, isn't it? The owners have their metrics."

The owners have forked out a lotta dough over shapiro's tenure. I'd like to see which metrics they have that are telling them it was a good investment. And in a few years from now as an aging bloated payroll bad team plays to empty renos.

In fact, ownership must be disheartened by the fact that, after all these fancy renos, i'm pretty sure attendance is down this year from the start of last year, maybe significantly down.

With Vlad it might be good if they could get an old school guy in to talk with him, someone like Cito who'd go at it from a different angle.

As to the manager - I don't see a change coming, but if it did who would be a better choice? Anyone inhouse would be doing pretty much the exact same moves as Schneider since it is a team effort in all things. From outside it is hard as most known managers who'd command respect are either retired or working. John Farrell (61) is a WS winning manager who isn't working as a manager right now. Last report I can find on him is being a scout for the Reds. Joe Maddon is 70 now, but did lead the Cubs to a title in '16, generally seen as a very good baseball guy but there is no record of his doing anything since 2022. John Gibbons could always come back for a 3rd round I guess. That'd make some fans happy for a week or two.

I know there are many others out there who could do the job but those 3 jumped out to me. Maddon the most as he should command the most respect out of the box, but at 70 does he really want to do it again? He has a near HOF record - at just over 1300 wins and 1 WS title he is close, but needs at least 2 more seasons and another title to lock himself in I think as it is hard to get in with under 2 titles and under 2000 wins so that might be his incentive. Getting the Cubs to the World Series, and the Rays to the playoffs - both seen as impossible when he took each team over - is quite impressive. The Angels improved each year under him, but not fast enough obviously as they gave him only COVID and 2021 as full seasons (yes, that is a very poorly run organization).

As I've said many times, I don't see the higher ups going anywhere. Shapiro and Atkins are doing what Rogers wants - providing a team good enough to draw fans and fill the park and TV ratings. Titles would be nice, but are not critical to them. The Seattle series here bottomed out at 22,960 fans, I'm going to assume right now the worst the Jays should expect is 20k at a game. Last year, with 3k more seats, the worst was 23,451 on Sept 11th vs Texas. In 2022 they had 3 games under 20k despite having 5k more seats than now. 2020 + 2021 don't count, COVID, so 2019 (terrible team) bottomed out at 10,460 on April 1st. 31 games sub 20k, with a peak of 45,048 for opening day (the only 40k crowd of the year). In 2016 coming off a division title and with an exciting team that would make the playoffs again they bottomed out at 23,726 on April 26th (stadium seated 48,871 on opening day). Right now the Jays are averaging 31,439 per game, 11th in the majors despite a capacity limit of about 40k (Dodgers average 45.7k to lead, Yankees #1 in AL at 37.8k). Only the Yankees and Astros are doing better in the AL for crowds. Just a shame they don't release ratings anymore as the Jays normally were #1 in the majors by a mile for viewers at over 500k per game (in 2023, most recent I could find, the Yankees were at 231k households per game - highest figure for people per household I could find is 2.34 so a max of 541k per game for the Yankees). In 2022 the Jays were at 896k viewers per game - far more than the Yankees - with a peak of 1.4 million.

If the Jays are anywhere near those 2022 figures for viewers it is safe to say Rogers is a very, very happy owner.

uglyone - this year the Jays are averaging 31,439 per game, in 2023 they averaged 37,307 with 2k+ more seats available. But up to April 26th they averaged 34,389 per game. So down 3k per game with 2k fewer seats. Given the increased price per ticket and with the new setup it is safe to say they are making more per person on concessions (bigger, more trendy bar areas). I suspect for net profit per game the Jays are ahead if anything. In 2022 pre any renos they were at 32,348 at this point (5k more seats) which is barely ahead of this years pace despite a far more exciting team and pent up demand post-COVID (back then we all thought Vlad was the next coming and he and Bo would lead the team to multiple WS titles, ah the folly of youth).

They mostly pitch Vladdito outside. If the ump is generous, Vlad will nod and chase, if not, he often takes a walk. Now, could he move closer in the box, but that's not difficult adjustment to make.

What bugs me, is when he--and he's not alone--take a fastball down the middle.

Of course Rogers cares about gate receipts and payback of stadium renovations so you have to be sympathetic of their right to make those business choices and sympathetic to management who operate within those constraints. It goes further though. Rogers is first and foremost a broadcasting entity. Blue Jays baseball is far and away their most significant content between late June and mid September. As a consequence on the list of front offfice 10 Commandments, “Thou shall not suck” has to be way higher on the list than “Thou shall empty the bucket to win”. 65 win teams don’t draw a lot of eyeballs. It must breed an institutional risk aversion.

As for Rogers view of current management? I would bet a lot of money that 2023 was viewed as a huge success. Excellent tv ratings and full stadiums at increased ticket prices. Until that changes, the front office (writ large) is safe.

Maybe Guerrero Jr. could take a page out of Mookie Betts's book. Like VGJ, Betts is a RH power hitter -- albeit with a different body type -- who doesn't strike out a lot (around 14% for his career compared to VGJ's 16%). Their walk rates are similar too (around 11% for Betts and 10% for VGJ).

Betts is a career .296/.376/.529 hitter. Vladdy could probably approach a similar offensive level with a more disciplined approach.

Seattle with that pitching should really make a play for Vlad come July.

This resembled a peak mid-2000's JP Ricciardi team to me prior to the season, and nothing has swayed me from that opinion. I think around 85 wins is probably fair, maybe a bit more or less depending on injuries and such, but that's where the talent level lies. I thought they should have traded Bichette prior to the season, it just made a lot of sense to maximize him as an asset when you know he won't re-sign (or at least wants to test free agency). This FO doesn't make proactive moves like that, some of that likely due to optics, but after the failed transition period of 2017-18, I'm kind of tired of the "optics" and "ownership" caveats with some of these non-decisions.

I suspect 2024 will get better as Vlad/Bo heat up and maybe some of this talk dies down, but the elephant in the room will still be there. This core isn't good enough and now it's one fewer year of control on both Vlad/Bo in possible trades, which will lower the return. I really don't fault anyone for being negative on the team right now. Yes, this could have been avoided if Vlad (more so) and Bo (less so) were the stars they were supposed to be, but they obviously misjudge that, so pivot in that case. Don't just keep everything the same and hope for better results.

Vlad was hitting liners and pop outs the other way in 2021 that went over the fence. Those are outs in major league parks and it's the difference between that huge season and a good season. On top of that he has bad approaches at the plate while he tries to figure things out.

I can't imaging how frustrating it is for the management and other players to have their 3 best hitters perform terribly.

John i'd guess ownership was looking for more of a return than goosing revenue thanks only to higher prices.

And i'm not sure the higher prices are helping with the fan experience either.

Man that was a bad play Varsho. He was within 6 feet of that.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-front-office-dissed-badly-in-anonymous-poll-of-40-mlb-executives


Ouch! Anthopoulos 3rd new guys in Cleveland 4th.NO votes for Jays.

This Jays team is horrible. I’ve never said this in the past, but strip the team down and rebuild. Move everyone. Fire Shapiro and Atkins. This team is absolute crap

I'd actually be okay with re-signing Vlad to a market fair salary. However the FO needs to bring in bonafide hitters one way or another.

Blue Jays are 0-35 since the 2023 All-Star break when trailing by 3 or more runs.

They are MLB's only winless team in that span

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 27, 2024

Oh yeah someone should mention that these guys seem to hate the new dead ball era-esque Rogers Centre.

not a fan of pinch hitting for clement there at all.

Time for a comeback.

I've said this before, but I remain struck by Shapiro's strong press conference endorsement of Atkins based on "the sixth best record in the AL over the past four years."  They are genuinely proud of that track record, and it's led to unwarranted arrogance about their process. 

I just don't see any movement toward adapting in any fashion on the offensive approach/strategy/personnel side.  And I agree with drafting and development concerns, although I place most of that blame on the fact that they overestimate themselves on the development side.  Usually, their drafts are more or less consistent with consensus rankings; usually B or B+ grade.  Then most of their high picks OPS .650 in the minors.

"the sixth best record in the AL over the past four years."

I guess i missed that press conference because that's an absolutely insane thing to say. Are you sure he didn't say MLB?

everyone hacking away trying to tie up a 3 run deficit with a solo homer. as always.

they will never figure it out.

Dan Shulman mentioned this weekend is sold out.

Wonder when they drop Bo and or Vlad in the line up. I'll double down on my prediction Schneider, John is relieved of duties before the end of the next series.

The Blue Jays just did the whole dog and pony show for Jordan Romano's entrance even though they are down 4-1. I get the fans need something to be entertained by, but that's bizarre stuff.

— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) April 27, 2024

Schneider is not going to be dismissed lightly. Remember that Atkins said he took responsibility for the Montoyo hiring that didn’t work out. So it will be a big blow for Atkins and Shapiro for Ross to have to take ownership over another failure on this front. They would be effectively conceding that the team had the wrong manager in place for pretty much the entire current window of contention.

I don't think not winning any votes in a poll of top 5 gm is a terrible dis. My impression at the time of the AA out Shapiro in was AA was very good GM and Shapiro was above average. I'm not sure things have changed that much from there even I'd AA has earned more respect and moved up a couple spots, and Jay's gm might have moved back a little to average.

The front office has been quite good at free agent signings and adding major league guys that have tended to work out well above the norm for that. They've built a solid team with strong pitching and a pretty reasonable lineup.

IMHO the problem comes in the management: the team seeming to be much less than sum of parts (timely hitting, baserunning, mental errors, tactics), and the regression of core in house developed players (chiefly Vlad - who is still a good player just we had glimpses and hopes of hof/mvp caliber and he's not been that outside the 1 peak season).

I don't know how much of that is bad luck, how much is correctable, and how much is actually the manager versus gm or others giving instructions.

Also, I'm not sure losing the "fun" vibe like the hr jacket was the right move. I like watching the players have fun, most teams seem to have silly celebrations and props now, the Jays haven't seemed quite as engaged offensively since they made that switch.

Lastly, I don't think the advise to AB about finding a pitch to swing hard is necessarily wrong or selfish. With less than 2 strikes being choosy of which pitch to swing at and aiming for one you can barrel and hit hard makes sense. Better to take a borderline pitch, even a strike, rather than make bad contact and work on doing damage on the pitches you want to hit. At least until two strikes. Even in most "productive out situations" taking pitches runs up the opponents pitch count and the hard hit ball, even when not a hit/hr would often be the deep fly ball that would allow "productive" base runner advancing.

After getting the full red-light star closer show coming into a game trailing 4-1, Romano can't even get out of the inning.

nice.

UO, I wasn't exaggerating.
"When evaluating, you're not evaluating on a series or even a season.  And in Ross's case, the body of work, to me, is undeniable," Shapiro said.  "There's over eight seasons - whether it's the last four having the sixth-best record in the American League, whether it's three of the last four years in the post-season, building out great resources, hiring a great leadership team that's been successful, both internationally and domestically."
October 12, 2023.

Greenfrog,

These guys are going to have a harder time keeping their jobs if they stick with the current team's performance. I don't think Atkins cares about what the past 10 years looks like if it means he's going to be out of a job at season's end.

Mike i think that might have been a misspeak. I think they actually do technically have the 6th most wins in baseball over the previous 4yrs.

The #BlueJays have not held a lead in 37 innings, the longest stretch in club history.

— Ethan Diamandas (@EthanDiamandas) April 27, 2024

Getting rid of the homerun jacket and seemingly also doing away with the general fun vibe of the team also seems to coincide with downturns in offensive performance of most of the players and the arrival of Don Mattingly.

I would not be sad at all to see him go. I also don't think getting rid of Schneider would make a lick of difference unless Atkins goes as well. Schneider manages games the exact same way Montoyo did, which makes me beleive that Atkins will only hire managers who follow his exact instructions, no room for autonomy.

I don't think it matters. Shapiro could say "Look, in the last three seasons the team has won 89 to 92 games. The three previous management regimes - Ash, Ricciardi, Anthopoulos - won that many games exactly once, in more than twenty years."

It doesn't matter. Because nobody likes them, presumably because of the way they speak to the media. (I'm not aware that anyone has personal dealings with them.)

Well, everyone gets grumpy in the midst of a losing streak. They were pretty grumpy in Texas last August when the Rangers were losing eight in a row. Lots of baseball remained then, and lots remains now.

that's a tough argument to make when the team you inherited won 93 and 89 games with two ALCS, after just a 5yr build.

Sure, I don't give Atkins all that much credit for the 89 wins by the team he inherited, and I don't give Anthopoulos much for the 85 wins by the team he inherited. They both made a contribution, but it was largely their predecessor's team.

This regime has had the largest payroll relative to its peers since the mid 90’s and payroll is the main determinant of success over a multi year period.

Losing to the Dodgers is no great shame and to be expected. The Dodgers are probably a better team by 20 games than the Jays. There are brighter days ahead.

Yet the Nationals managed to win two games against the Dodgers in a recent series...

The Dodgers have scored the most runs in baseball. The Blue Jays are 22nd in runs scored.

They are more closely ranked when it comes to runs allowed (LAD is 16th-best, Toronto is 22nd-best).

A reminder that the 1899 Spiders beat a 95 win team 2 of 3 at one point. That was 10% of their season wins. Baseball is a funny game.

I agree with Magpie. Ultimately, we can talk about whether Atkins and Shapiro should be fired, whether just Atkins should be, or how they compare to Anthopolous, Ricciardi and Ash, but at the end of the day, people don't like them and I don't believe anything they do will ever change that.

Between the way they came in and AA left after taking over the team to their poor media skills to their fingerprints being over some of the most disappointing moments of the last few seasons, I think the Jays could win the World Series this year and the narrative would likely be that the team won despite them, not that they were an important part of this team.

The Jays are being kept largely afloat due to strong starting pitching, led by Berrios and Kikuchi, both are Atkins acquisitions. Atkins took a leap with Gausman over Ray. Bassitt's first year was a success, but nobody mentions these moves much (including myself). Sure over five years, most of the players will be acquisitions by the current regime, not the old one, but the Jays could have made four similar moves and wound up with a lot worse rotation than Gausman, Berrios, Bassit and Kikuchi.

As Greenfrog, I believe, pointed out, the unluckiest thing for this front office (and Jays fans) is that the best team they assembled in Toronto missed the playoffs by a game.

I think they can be liked by the fans but they need to be honest. It's all of them. It's the corporate philosophy they have, but also I believe they are just simply stubborn and refuse to give in to criticism which leads to the feedback of "arrogance" from fans.

Listen to Schneider last night when asked by Shi Davidi if maybe Daulton Varsho made that rare miscue perhaps because the players are pressing and his response was "he is the best defensive OF in baseball, no issues" or something to that effect. I think most successful leaders would first acknowledge the crux of the question and then pour positive on it afterwards rather than being dismissive. "Daulton made a rare miscue, it's possible he's pressing, we all are because we know how important these games mean to us." That's the type of answer I've heard Cito and many other mangagers say in the past.

When asked by Bob McCown if they are worried about vlad's performance, Shapiro never answered the question. He simply said, "we believe in our players being who they are supposed to be and this team is built on those players performing where they should be performing." Something to this effect...you can see the dismissive tone in these answers. What he should say is "we try to build the best team possible and there's no doubt that right now the team we put together is just not good enough and we need to work together to get them performing better."

This is what frustrates me and I believe many others as fans. Blair and Barker talked about Schneider almost "losing the room" end of last year like Montoyo did...maybe this team needs a manager that can lose the room and still have a job...put the onus on the players to earn their playing time rather than the manager being someone who must serve his superiors orders and placate Springer, Vlad and Bo.

Professional baseball is a business and sports media is another business altogether.
Baseball decisions should never be impacted by media.
This isn't wrestling. Popularity does not lead to success.

This isn't the first difficult April the Jays have had.
Obviously, the hitters haven't found they groove yet.
Playing the Dodgers is certainly not part of an easy schedule.

With respect to Varsho, I think that playing too much left field might have affected his judgment on balls he can get to when playing center. That shouldn't be a recurring theme.

Again, this is April. People are supposed to focus on some  other teams getting eliminated in the first round.

Ugh the more i think about the more annoyed i get with the "6th best record over the last 4yrs" quote.

Sounds sorta good on the surface but in reality they finished 8th 8th 9th and 11th in those years. Just a good / above average team, never on par with the really good teams.

But it surprises me not at all that that's the kind of nebulous metric that they would value above all.

On a “do you like them scale?” I was always pretty ambivalent until their press conferences after the Minnesota debacle. You’ve always had to watch what they actually do rather than listen to their corporate blather but they are hardly alone in the sports management industry in that. That doesn’t particularly bother me. I suspect that’s a plus when working for Rogers. However, the way they handled the Barrios decision, Atkins’ year end presser in particular, was an abomination. I felt so then and I lost a huge amount of respect for their personal qualities after that. If they are unliked, then at least in part, they have only themselves to blame.

That quote about the 6th best record in the AL is sickening. No wonder this team is mediocre.

As Nigel points out, these comparisons to Ricciardi and Anthopoulos fall flat. Neither was given the resources to work with that this front office has been given. Now, you can credit Shapiro with getting ownership to open the spigot (and I do), but Atkins doesn't deserve any credit for that. That's a Beeston vs. Shapiro discussion.

If people want to give credit for signing Bassitt that's fine, and I'm sure the nerd WAR/$ calculators will justify it. For me, when you're giving 21MM to a 4th starter you need to get more from him than the Jays have gotten, especially when it means that over half of your payroll is spent on pitching. That's something most teams do not do. It's been pointed out many times in here that teams don't pay for that first win in WAR, it's the 3rd to 6th win that are valuable. And they've basically gotten what they paid for with Kikuchi. Of their FA signings, only Gausman has really been a smashing success. Springer may turn into an anchor.

Regarding the renovations and attendance, there's really nothing new to bring out the fans for this season. The changes made this offseason were mostly to make the best seats more expensive. They turned the outfield baseline seats to face home, and in the process they obstructed the view of pretty much the entire stadium. Most seats (even good ones) can't see the OF corners anymore (WTF?!), all done so those seats in the corner that are pretty much always empty anyway face towards home instead of CF. Weird.

I’m with quite a bit of that 92-93. The team is largely paying full freight for its performance. Where are the “value” acquisitions and contracts? As you say, Gausman has outperformed to date and I’ve always thought that the Barrios acquisition (not with the hindsight of how the prospects turned out) was a good piece of business (due to Barrios’ somewhat unique combination of age, health and consistency). In general though, it’s why I think of their performance as “meh”, there are front offices that pay more than full freight for their performance.

Scottt...criticisms happening in April 2024 are relating to under-performance and questionable tactics going back to the entire 2023 season.

The Jays’ lineup would be average with the best versions of Bo and Vlad. It would be poor with the Zips/Steamer projection versions. And it’s dismal with the current versions.

What frustrates me is that, so often we wonder whether the Jays tried hard to sign impact position players…but this year there was so much talent available for less-than-MLBTR-estimate rates, and plenty of helpful pieces for cheap.

Maybe the team had maxed out payroll, but in that case they really should have been more open to reallocating money. This lineup never really had a chance.

I think someone on this site suggested Tyler O'Neill as a corner OF acquisition. That was a brilliant idea. He's hitting .333/.450/.758 with 9 HR in only 19 games (1.3 fWAR in that injury-shortened span, higher than anyone on the Blue Jays roster).

I’ve believed for a while that management drank the look-aid of the minor league ball park inflated performance of the offense in 2021 and have been way too slow to recognize that this team has significant offensive limitations.

Kool-aid - weird autocorrect

First appearance in 2024 for the powder blue uniforms.

Good AB by Vlad followed by a horrible AB by Bo where he swung at three balls way out of the strike zone.

This consistent, patient, quality contact version of Schneider this year is even more encouraging than his spectacular unsustainable power show last year.

When John Schneider mentioned Springer, Bo, and Vladdy, he said that they’re the team’s best hitters — and then added something like, no disrespect to Turner and Varsho, who have also been great. No mention of Davis Schneider. But Davis has been very good, maintaining an OPS around .800 on a weak-hitting team. He’s underappreciated, even by his own manager.

This is the money post to summarize 2024 assessment of FO:

"The Jays’ lineup would be average with the best versions of Bo and Vlad. It would be poor with the Zips/Steamer projection versions. And it’s dismal with the current versions.

What frustrates me is that, so often we wonder whether the Jays tried hard to sign impact position players…but this year there was so much talent available for less-than-MLBTR-estimate rates, and plenty of helpful pieces for cheap.

Maybe the team had maxed out payroll, but in that case they really should have been more open to reallocating money. This lineup never really had a chance."

gotta love this big boy performance by our ace when things are looking darkest.

Prior to today, Blue Jay position players ranked 16th of 30 teams in fWAR and Blue Jay pitchers ranked 27th of 30 teams.  It's been a tough start for both with the pitchers even more than the position players. 

I don't like going to Mayza here.

eh you gotta go with mayza here. he's looked good the past few outings too.

that ball carried way farther than it looked off the bat to me.

Getting Ohtani to pop up was the key PA in that inning, in my opinion. Good job by the bullpen to keep LA off the board.

wow that looks legit impossible but george got there.

It looked to me like Springer was playing shallow. Almost too shallow...

Outfield defense helped get the win today. Although Gausman looked good too.

Did Vladdy actually get picked off again????

wRC+

* RF Springer 119pa, 95wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 127pa, 99wrc+
* SS Bichette 114pa, 65wrc+
* DH Turner 100pa, 151wrc+
* CF Varsho 97pa, 136wrc+
* LF Schneider 66pa, 131wrc+
* C Jansen 27pa, 159wrc+
* 2B Biggio 81pa, 110wrc+
* 3B Clement 54pa, 108wrc+

* PH Vogelbach 23pa, 59wrc+
* OF Kiermaier 62pa, 40wrc+
* IF Falefa 82pa, 92wrc+
* C Kirk 74pa, 71wrc+


- it's actually kinda funny how good the bottom 2/3 of the lineup has been given how bad the top 1/3 has been.

- of course, we'd have got more benefit from the bottom 2/3 if Schneider and Clement had been given equal chance at playing time from the start. and the jansen injury didn't help.

- hopefully now that Falefa's early hot streak is probably over, Clement starts to get even more opportunity.

Yes, he did. And then Schneider chose not to pinch-run for him in the bottom of the 8th up 2 runs.

Around the league: the New York Mets win by walk-off homer in the 11th.  The Chicago White Sox have won 3 in a row.  The Minnesota Twins, seeking a 7th straight win, playing the L.A. Angels right now.  And the Texas Rangers win 4 - 3 over the Cincinnati Reds, where Texas' Wyatt Langford hits an inside-the-park home run.

Did Vladdy actually get picked off again????

Now tied for the team lead (with Bichette and Clements.)

Fun to see John Schneider defying the Book, Conventional Wisdom, and All That's Holy there in the eighth inning.

Odd, didn't watch much of the game (playing slo-pitch) but what I did see made me feel strongly that Bo is really not into it right now. He looks uninterested and like he just wants to move on. Vlad makes mistakes but they normally are from trying too hard, not from a 'meh' attitude. Now, maybe Bo always has been that way and I just didn't notice because he was playing so solid the past few years (120 OPS+/decent enough defense). I'm starting to think he might be gone this winter as the Jays retool for 2026 and beyond. IKF and Clement can hold down the fort for a year if the Jays go get a solid LF bat or just leave Schneider out there in 2025, and chase a solid 3B bat like Alex Bregman who is a free agent having a horrid year right now (59 OPS+ coming into today vs career 133, never lower than 110 before this season, might cut his price/years, always solid on defense, never a negative by BR, slight negative now and then by DRS and UZR/150).

Right now (stats through today's game) Barger clearly came up too soon (0-11, 0 BB but just 3 K), Kiermaier & Vogelbach were poor signings for 2024 (both OPS under 500), Kirk nearly up to Bo in OPS (567 vs 568 - yikes), IKF ahead of all those mentioned so far at 652, Springer barely ahead of him at 654, Vlad at 659. Yikes. Meanwhile in Buffalo we have Orelvis at 300/364/622, Horwitz at 341/495/476, and Robertson at 259/420/630. All 3 need to be looked at seriously for a callup to help this nearly dead offense. I wouldn't mind Vogelbach being dumped and Horwitz called up for that role (at least he can cover 1B, and 2B/LF in emergencies), I know Robertson won't be called up (not on 40 man yet) but he'd be nice and has actually had a few games in LF unlike Barger (over 1000 innings).

Votto hasn't played yet. At some point he'll get a shot I'm sure but right now you can't count on that. Vogelbach was worth a shot (landed under 'why not') but he really has no value here (PH only, DH now and then with a sub 500 OPS) - I figure he was insurance for DH, which is what Votto is now (if he gets healthy).

On the bright side - Kirk HR! Springer and Varsho defense (2 CF in the OF is always nice)! A Jays win vs the likely best team in baseball once all is said and done for 2024.

I don’t find it fun watching a manager who manages scared all the time. The only reason to not use Clement as a PR for Vladdy up 2 in the bottom of the 8th is because you’re worried the other team ties it up and you’ll lose Guerrero’s vaunted bat. Schneider uses his best RP up 4 runs if they’re fresh for the same reason, he manages scared. Two run leads are saved around 95% of the time, so I’d much rather see a pinch runner come in and attempt a SB. Maybe if there was speed on 1st Bo actually takes a pitch instead of rolling over the first one into a double play. Heck, even if the numbers didn’t make sense I’d have pulled Vladdy just to teach him a lesson that his base running is unacceptable, but that would take some gumption from the puppet manager.

I don’t find it fun watching a manager who manages scared all the time.

I have no opinion about pinch running for Guerrero. But choosing to put the go-ahead run on base in the eighth inning is the exact opposite of managing scared, and that's what I was thinking about.

Kirk and Turner are the 2 guys they can pinch run.

Magpie you're making an argument that misses the point of the criticism. Hypothetically yes, putting a go ahead run on is not "managing scared." If you watched the game then you know what's meant by managing scared. It's very likely that Schneider did all of this while managing scared. Using analytical information and relying on probable outcomes by putting the go ahead run on is not the opposite of managing scared. Its highly calculated low risk and Schneider looks incredibly uncomfortable managing this way.

Barger was hitting for average, hitting for power and walking a ton.
He's 24 and didn't just land in AAA either.
Some players have hot starts and some don't. (Jackson Holliday is in a different situation.)
Barger has 14 walks and 15 strikeout in Buffalo with a .314 .435 .586 line.

The only issue is putting him in left field.
Lukes would have been the natural guy to call but he's in a slump.
Also, he's another guy who hasn't been able to hit in MLB.

How much trade value does Guerrero Jr. have at the moment? Probably not much. High salary, low production, l.5 years of control (assuming a trade at the deadline).

He's a bit like Jose Abreu on the Astros now. The team just has to keep playing him and hope for the best.

It's very likely that Schneider did all of this while managing scared.

Very likely. I know I'm generally scared when the go-ahead runner reaches base. And I'm not the guy who put him there.

Kirk and Turner are the 2 guys they can pinch run.

And Vogelbach. Most managers these days prefer to wait until the runner reaches second base before pinch running. The modern bench is so short that you don't want to lose a player for nothing if the next batter hits a grounder to the infield.

I've noticed that when Clement gets picked off, it's just a baseball play. File and forget. When Guerrero gets picked off, it's a defect of character and he needs to be taught a lesson.

The harsh bigotry of great expectations.

I’ve been critical of this team’s base running for the past two years (it’s been awful) and Vladdy has definitely been part of that. Yesterday’s pickoff was just a baseball play. He was trying to time a steal (at a time and place where a steal made some sense) and the Dodgers sniffed it out.

I looked up Clement's speed- 28.9 mph per Statcast this year.  He was 12-2 stealing bases in half a year at Buffalo and he's 2-0 in Toronto so far.  I'm not happy about him being picked off, but I can see it as part of an adjustment.  There are so many ways Clement has needed to improve to get where he is today and he has managed most of them.  He's a fine defensive infielder at key positions, possesses excellent contact ability, will not take a walk, medium range pop, fast but still makes baserunning errors.  That's quite a good package. 

Turner is a good hitter right now, Vladdy is not. Had it been Turner on first base then keeping his bat in the game might have made some sense (but not really), but keeping Vlad on the bases when he was the DH made none.

Saving your 4 man bench for a better opportunity when you’re up 3-1 in the bottom of the 8th at home is pretty silly. And if Vogelbach’s lack of defensive value had anything to do with the reluctance, he shouldn’t be on the roster.

Mike, there’s little question the Jays would be better without shoehorning this version of Guerrero into the lineup every day. They still have to chase the upside though, which is why they would bring him back through arbitration if the decision had to be made today despite not being worth 25MM. He definitely still has trade value because of that significant upside.

#ToTheCore

"I've noticed that when Clement gets picked off, it's just a baseball play. File and forget. When Guerrero gets picked off, it's a defect of character and he needs to be taught a lesson.

The harsh bigotry of great expectations."

I apologize but you need to incorporate context into this. Imagine two drivers of cars and one has had 2 major accidents and 2 speeding tickets. They both get into an accident a few years later and your response is "why does one guy need to be taught a lesson and not the other?" Vladdy has demonstrated poor baserunning decisions for a few years now, from now hustling out of the box to admiring would-be home runs to getting picked off in critical playoff games. It's a bit surprising to see you compare him to Ernie and the reaction fans have as if they are unreasonable. There's no bigotry here, at least not from those criticizing Vlad.

Vlad still has value because of his raw talent. You can probably trade him for Pete Alonso or you can flip him to San Diego for some farm talent. Best case would be to trade him to a team willing to clear out a big payroll but good player, like Trout or Tatis but that seems less and less likely.

Mike, with your line up the biggest upside is the savings of 20+ million which can let the management go after a big add.

Also, Vladdy made a monumental baserunning error in game two of the WC series against the Twins (Blue Jays down 2-0, runners at second and third, 3-2 count on the hitter Bichette). Vladdy should be on thin ice with respect to his baserunning in 2024, so to speak, because of that error.

A more aggressive and/or less appeasing manager would have used his bench in both the 7th and 8th innings yesterday. Recall, Kirk led off the 7th with a single before Biggio's GIDP lefty-on-lefty against Yarbrough. That would have been a perfect spot to use both Jansen & Clement as pinch-hitter & pinch-runner. And Barger would have been an easy upgrade over Vlad in the 8th. It didn't end up costing them, but I wish they had been more interested in scoring some insurance runs.

Turner is a good hitter right now, Vladdy is not.

I think that's the "hot hand" theory of management. It's not my way but I'm certainly not going to knock it - Casey Stengel and Joe Torre won a lot of championships that way. But I know Turner's hitting .353 on his Balls in Play, and Guerrero's hitting .263 on his. I think that's unlikely to continue for either player.

If only I knew for sure when the change would come....

Why Clement? Because he and Guerrero have each been picked off once this season. That's all. Guerrero was certainly a bad baserunner (and fielder) in 2023. His struggle to get the results he expected at the plate got into his head and his whole game went to pieces. No one needs to see that again. And so far this season, he's been cautious practically to a fault on the bases.

I apologize

No need. I'm just a contrary old geezer. If we were discussing the Leafs, I'm sure I'd be defending Mitch Marner.

The Mets are in WC contention at the moment. I'm not sure why they would want to downgrade at first base from Alonso (3.4 fWAR last year and this year combined) to VGJ (1.4 fWAR over the same span). I don't see how an extra year of control at a high AAV would be especially appealing to New York.

Barger was hitting for average, hitting for power and walking a ton. He's 24 and didn't just land in AAA either. Some players have hot starts and some don't.

I agree completely.

The fact he's 0-for-11 doesn't mean he was called up too soon. It just means he's 0-for-11. He doesn't look overmatched or completely out of his depth to me and has hit several balls hard.

and while we're on about small samples, a reminder that a one month sample, like say April, is virtually meaningless in terms of projecting performance going forward.

I don't think not winning any votes in a poll of top 5 gm is a terrible dis.

I finally got around to reading this poll, and... yeah. The Tigers, who haven't had a .500+ record since 2016, received 4 points. The Astros, who haven't been under .500 over the same period and won two world series, got 1 point more. One person voted for the Reds - would anyone here rather be a Cincinnati fan?

The problem with the Reds and many other teams is fans there know they rarely sign anyone long term, and if they do they sign 1 guy. Going out and signing Ryu, Springer, Gauzman, Kikuchi, and Bassitt at market rates would never happen in Cincinnati, KC, Baltimore, or many other cheap teams. The Jays of the JPR era tried once to do that and it didn't work out (2005/6 AJ Burnett, BJ Ryan, 06/7 Frank Thomas). A team needs to be able to fill in holes via free agency to speed up a success cycle. Gillick did it well near the end (Winfield, Morris, Molitor) but had his flops too (Morris, Stewart) and missed opportunities (not resigning Henke, Key).

The Jays are in a good place financially - tons of TV revenue (indirect, but there) plus a full stadium when winning (empty when losing) which puts the pressure on to contend no matter what. Other teams don't have the same incentive to win (Red Sox, Cubs both sell out regardless ala the Leafs) outside of pride. Some can't sell out even if they had Babe Ruth return from the dead to play (Tampa, Oakland).

Yeah, I'd love to have some of the Reds players here - Elly De La Cruz is one of the most fun players in MLB and will be interesting to see who gets him in the winter of 29/30 when he is a free agent. But in spite of the easier division, and better record right now, the Jays have higher odds of reaching the post season. Why? Much better potential in who is here right now for 2024. In 2026 the Reds might be better, but this year is unlikely.

Yes, but re the Reds are more fun team right now than the Jays?

There are bands named Sports Team and Go! Team; fun team surely cannot be far behind.

I really don't have any opinions about the Reds, but is signing Jeimer Candelario to a 3-year deal fun? Is Santiago Espinal more fun as a Red than he was when he wasn't good enough to play for the Jays? Is it fun that they've lost 100 games more recently than they've been to the playoffs?

My point was more that this "best run teams" list has some pretty eccentric opinions on it, and I don't think the Jays' inclusion on it, or lack thereof, says a whole lot.

If the Blue Jays had advanced a round or two in the 2023 postseason, the front office might have gotten some votes. I think the Berrios debacle and the slow start in 2024 probably caused the FO to fall somewhat out of favour across baseball.