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The Royals lost 106 games just last season, which was not an unusual thing for them. It was the seventh time they'd lost at least 100 games since the turn of the current century. Some context? Well, the Yankees have never lost 100 games - they were still the New York Highlanders back in 1912, the last time they were so wretched. The Dodgers and Cardinals? The last time for them was in 1908. The Angels have never lost 100 games. Kansas City has made it a habit.

But maybe not this time. The Royals are off to a nice 13-9 start, largely on the backs of the best run prevention in the major leagues - they've allowed just 70 runs in those first 22 games. It's obviously an enormous improvement, from 5.30 runs allowed to 3.18. The Royals thought they had found themselves a quality starter in Cole Ragans, who arrived last August when the Royals unloaded Aroldis Chapman on the Texas Rangers. The Rangers won a championship, and Chapman helped - but Ragans went 5-2, 2.64 in 12 starts for the Royals. Ragans has continued to pitch well this season, even if he's still looking for his first W and was badly abused by the Orioles in his last start. But the other four starters have been even better and how is even this happening? Brady Singer, 8-11, 5.02 a year ago? Alec Marsh was 3-9, 5.69 last season. Seth Lugo spent seven seasons working mostly middle relief for the Mets - the Padres turned him into a full time starter last season (8-7, 3.57). Michael Wacha was also in San Diego last season - the Royals are the sixth different team he's played for in the last six years. Well, Wacha's always been a quality pitcher when his arm was feeling up to the job, which it has these last couple of years.

The Royals are also scoring runs - 4.91 per game, fourth best in the AL, despite playing their home games in what has always been a home park that didn't help hitters a whole lot. It took 50 years before any Kansas City Royal managed to hit 40 HRs in a single season - that was Jorge Soler in 2019. M.J. Melendez made it to the majors as a catcher, but with a team that already had a franchise icon, Salvador Perez, behind the dish. Melendez started playing some outfield in 2022, and seems to have found a home in left field. Vinnie Pasquantino is a large LH first baseman, who's always been able to hit and always able to draw some walks. Melendez and Pasquantino are both hitting home runs in the early going. But they're just the supporting cast.

The Royals drafted Bobby Witt Jr out of high school with the second overall pick in 2019, thirty-five years after the Texas Rangers selected his father with the third overall pick back in 1985. And Junior may be about to Take Over. Hey, you've got a shortstop hitting a little like Ronald Acuna Jr. What's not to like? Fifty years ago, in the very early days of the franchise, the Royals had the great good fortune - because any time you land a no-doubt Hall of Famer, you've been a little lucky - to draft a young infielder named George Brett. Brett is by far the greatest Royal the world has ever seen. So far. 

It's still early days, very early - Witt's father had a moment when he looked to be Bound For Glory as well - but you never know. The Royals may have hit that vein again.

Matchups

Mon 22 April - Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08) vs Singer (2-0, 1.54)
Tue 23 April - Gausman (0-2, 8.16) vs Wacha (1-2, 3.75)
Wed 24 April - Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35) vs Marsh (3-0, 3.22)
Thu 25 April - Berrios (4-0, 0.85) vs Ragans (0-2, 4.32)
Toronto at Kansas City, April 22-25 | 131 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Marc Hulet - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#444938) #
I would have kept Springer, Vladdy and Kirk out of the game against a pitcher with high GB tendencies. Springer and Vladdy could use the rest. Clement would have been a better bet with his speed... and it would have been nice to see Vogelbach get a start - his power would still play in a larger park like this.
mathesond - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#444939) #
See, the thing with Kikuchi is, ya gotta get him in his less expensive seasons. He's so much better at $10M/season than he is at $16.
greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#444940) #
Would Kikuchi even agree to an extension at this point? The Blue Jays should go for it if they can. The pitching cupboard is bare, and it’s hard to find lefties with the stuff and ability of Kikuchi.
scottt - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#444941) #
Kikuchi is in own bubble. Relaxing. Drinking whiskey after a win.
Why disturb him with contract talk and make him focus on the pressure of a contract year?

If the Jays want to resign him, there is always the possibility of a QO.

Also, didn't the Jays try to extend Chapman after his amazing April?
That could have ended badly.

Let the season play itself. For an affordable arm, they gambled on Rodriguez.

Eephus - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#444942) #
I lamented earlier this season how Varsho’s head was pulling off the ball during his swing, allowing his front side to fly open. His current swing looks much the same but all that extra body movement falling off to the first base side seems to have been tamed during this pleasant hot streak. Even though almost anything he hits hard is still to right field, his head and step are staying direct and forward.

(Clearly I tuned in just in time for the home run… please tell me he didn’t look like a little leaguer flailing away for juice and carrots in his previous at bats…)


scottt - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#444943) #
First time, he chased a bunch of breaking balls inside that were not hittable.
greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#444944) #
scott, how did you like the three-year, $27m contract (plus $10m club option for the fourth year) that Edwin Encarnacion signed in July 2012? I'm guessing you weren't disappointed with his performance over those four seasons (fWAR 4.0, 3.7, 4.5, 3.6)?

I'm confident you're smart enough not to rely on a sample size of one player (Matt Chapman) to conclude that all in-season extensions are a bad idea. I know you wouldn't make that mistake.
Eephus - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#444945) #
That was a nice play by Turner (after the really bad one last inning) but taking the chance at the plate, playing back on the infield, while up 3? I dunno guys… I dunno know… good to see he’s confident doing such a thing in a potentially tighter situation at least.

And it was a nice play.
uglyone - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#444946) #
Kikuchi is loving life and I'm loving watching him. So, so good out there, game in game out.

and the Varshow sure is entertaining too.
scottt - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#444947) #
They've already given Kikuchi a comparable contract to bring him here.
Kikuchi is in different place now. His next contract should pay him more.
He can go back to the west coach if he cares about that.
They offered Encarnation 4/80M at the end of that contract and he declined.
Kikuchi could be in that range. Stroman just got 18.5M/year to go to his favourite destination.

Garcia is a free agent too.

Gerry - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#444948) #
The Jays have settled into a pattern. Great starting pitching, OK relief pitching and then look for a hitter to get a big hit. Early in the season it was Turner, recently its been Varsho. Schneider and Clement chip in.

Basically a great start and pray for a hitter.
Nigel - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#444949) #
Unless they start getting some more offense from their top 3 I think that’s all this team has Gerry.

Great start by Kikutchi and Garcia looks ridiculously good these days.
greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#444950) #
13-10 with a relatively cold top three in their lineup? The Blue Jays will take that.

With Kikuchi and Berrios pitching like top-of-the-rotation starters, the rotation has the potential to be really good this year.
greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#444951) #
I hope Springer heats up, but what should the team do with him if he’s now an 80-100 wRC+ hitter? Drop him down in the lineup? Use him as a fourth outfielder? Move him along with prospects in a salary dump trade?
scottt - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#444952) #
He had  a slow start last year as well.
I guess you give him another month than if he doesn't improve, you let Biggio play RF once or twice a week.

They used to let him DH, but it's no longer an option because they really needed a full-time DH.
So maybe, they need to give him some days off instead.

Marc Hulet - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#444953) #
There is no reason to keep Springer at the top of the lineup other than to appease the veteran. He shouldn't be higher than seventh, ideally eighth or ninth.
Nigel - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#444954) #
Agreed Marc. The first logical step would be to move Springer down in the lineup. Move Biggio’s OBP somewhere in the top 3.
greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#444955) #
Are Orelvis and Barger slated to be the future 2B and 3B for the team? Or could Barger supplant Springer in RF?
Michael - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 04:59 AM EDT (#444956) #
Over the past 2 years combined Springer is:

782 PA 250/324/391 715 OPS with 175 H, 73 BB, 23 GIDP, 5 HBP, 3 SF, 27 2B, 23 HR, 23/28 SB.

Biggio over the same time is:

403 PA 241/345/374 719 OPS with 83 H, 46 BB, 0 GIDP, 10 HBP, 2 SF, 16 2B, 10 HR, 6/8 SB.

It is pretty close overall in rate value, but the extra OBP and lack of GIDP does make Biggio higher seem well worth it. That OBP is also higher than Bichette's, but slightly lower than Vlad over that time.

But the overall point is also that Biggio could do to play more often and you could rest Springer a bit more too as the difference in their bat/quality/value is not that much at this point in their careers.
pooks137 - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 06:17 AM EDT (#444957) #
Amazing that Biggio hasn't hit into a GIDP in the last two years.

I was going to celebrate him as an old-school TTO hitter, but he really doesn't hit for power anymore.

I wonder if it's more as a result of cumulative injuries (I remember him taking at least 3 batted balls off his bare hand in ST one year while trying to win time at 3B) or a change in approach.

From the games I've watched this year, Biggio's had a more linedrive swing rather than his old warning track flyball one.

scottt - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#444958) #
Yeah, he became a good prospect when he started uppercutting balls in AA.
That carried him a long way, but the league adjusted by challenging him more, getting him looking with a borderline pitch. So he had to protect more and level his swing. He likes to take the first pitch but on occasion will ambush one.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#444959) #
One thing to factor in is how Biggio's worst stretch the past 2 seasons was early last year - at the end of April he was down to 111/184/244, didn't reach a 600 OPS until the end of May, 700 on September 11th. Basically April 2023 was his worst possible month, since a pretty damn fine hitter. Springer in APril 2023 was at 599 OPS, in July dropped a 565 OPS down, and is sub 600 right now (533 the last 2 weeks, 360 the past week). Basically Springer is getting worse, Biggio better as time passes. That should factor in. Right now I'd be more inclined to play Biggio than Springer as if you factor in ages (29 vs 34) odds are higher that Biggio will do better going forward. I'd certainly be giving George more time off right now.

By OPS+ we have 8 guys over 100, 3 aren't regulars based on playing time in Schneider, Clement, and Jansen. Sub 80's are Springer (78), Kiermaier (52), and Kirk (44). Bo is barely under 100 now (95). So basically I'd be working on giving one of Springer or Kiermaier a day off every day, alternating as best as possible. Getting Jansen in as much as possible with Kirk resting more. Giving Clement & Schneider more playing time.

Funny how two years in a row though the biggest nightmare might be the previous years ace - Gausman now at 47 for ERA+ - 8.16 ERA - yikes! In April Manoah had a 4.88 ERA last year, it was May he fell apart (6.15). If we have 2 years in a row having our ace fall apart and still make the playoffs then that is quite remarkable imo.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#444960) #
They need to get away from having Kirk catch Gausman so much... I haven't been able to watch closely enough to pick up on it yet but I'm pretty sure Kirk is tipping Gausman's pitches (it might be in his setup before the pitch). And if I'm not wrong, I believe he's been much worse with Kirk behind the plate.
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#444961) #
And if I'm not wrong, I believe he's been much worse with Kirk behind the plate.

You're wrong. They were very similar last year, in 2022 he was much better with Kirk.

2023
Kirk: 3.18 ERA over 16 games, 96 IP, .217 / .285 / .392
Jano: 3.12 ERA over 12 games, 72 IP, .239 / .281 / .359

2022
Kirk: 2.32 ERA over 10 games, 62 IP, .244 / .271 / .326
Jano: 4.37 ERA over 13 games, 68 IP, .307 / .332 / .489
Joe - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#444963) #
Wow, I didn't realize just how stark Biggio's power dropoff has been. This is a graph of his wRC+ and his ISO:

They used to be highly correlated, then his ISO (power - the blue line) dropped off midway through last year, and it's basically remained low since. Somehow, he's found a way to remain a productive hitter, though!

92-93 - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#444964) #
Just a note on the Royals' run prevention, Magpie. They have limited the 3-19 White Sox to 9 runs in 7 games. Their runs allowed per game ex-Chicago is 4.07, and part of that solid # can likely be attributed to a rested bullpen after starters go deep against a bad team.

A remarkable stat - Kansas City yielded its first and only unearned run this past weekend.

The other night when I saw Springer not in the lineup after an off day I hoped the Jays had come to their senses and realized he isn't a MUST START every game, but alas he was merely under the weather. With the way the Jays are built, there really is no reason why Springer, Bichette, and Guerrero have to be in the lineup every day until they prove otherwise with their bats. The days off would likely help their production, and the downgrade wouldn't be that large given the team's depth.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#444965) #
With the versatility of this team there is zero reason for anyone to play 10+ games in a row IMO. Give everyone their rest and keep them fresh - especially guys like Springer who aren't playing well and haven't in awhile. The sub 27's you can push, but after 30 it is just asking for trouble.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#444966) #
I don't think we should be in any rush to change anything right now.

Team is overall playing well despite almost all the guys at the top of the roster scuffling/hurt - Springer, Bichette, Gausman, Romano/Swanson/Mayza.

Thankfully a bunch of the depth guys are crushing it right now, but I don't see any urgent need to move them up into more prominent pressurized roles in which they might not perform as well in.

For now i'd bet on Springer/Bichette/Gausman/Romano/Swanson/Mayza rounding into expected form sooner rather than later.
soupman - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#444967) #
...it's still April. last April the fanbase was clamouring for Belt to be cut A quick look around the division finds that Aaron Judge has a 89 OPS+ the Jays aren't the only team with stars that underperform and i feel like there's just so much negativity around a team that has continued to find ways to win - fwiw if the jays had held on to the broom against the bombers, they'd be even in the standings.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#444968) #
So what I'm looking at when I say Kirk might be tipping Gausman's pitches:

Of his last 10 bad starts between June 2023 (when teams seemed to suddenly start hitting him harder more often) and now, Kirk was behind the plate for 7 of the 10 games (Jansen, Heineman and Serven were 1 each of the other 3).

During the five regular season games in 2023, those runs accounted for 33% of the runs Gausman allowed in all of 2023. Kirk was also behind the plate for the ill-fated playoff game with the Twins (who also hit Gausman hard earlier in 2023 with Kirk behind the plate).
Magpie - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#444969) #
They have limited the 3-19 White Sox to 9 runs in 7 games.

Well spotted! And proof that while history may not repeat, it often rhymes.

The 2005 White Sox, on their way to their first championship in almost a century, got off to a jackrabbit start, winning 24 of their first 31. They did this partially by putting together a pair of eight game winning streaks, each of which featured a sweep of the then hapless KC Royals.
Magpie - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#444970) #
Kirk might be tipping Gausman's pitches:

If so, perhaps only a couple of teams have figured that out, as Gausman's got better numbers pitching to Kirk than pretty well everyone else he's ever worked with.
jz6pwc - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#444971) #
Has anyone else noticed the hitch Jano has in his throw back to the pitcher. I just noticed it this year. I saw it a few times in spring training, where he taps his glove I think 4 times before the throw, but now he does it every throw back to the pitcher. Once he tried to throw the ball back to the pitcher without the taps to the mit and he missed the pitcher completely. Maybe this was happening last year and I just didn't notice?
electric carrot - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#444972) #
I'm starting to wonder what's up with Bichette. From my perusal of the stats his barrel rate is well down from career norms (down to 2.9% from career of 9.5%) and his hard hits are down also (37.1% from career of 46.5%) This is much less true of Vladdy who despite the constant complaints on this site of having no discipline is about 5% above career norms for walking (14.6% this year vs career of 9.9%) and hard hit balls is up a smidge (51.5% vs a career of 49.3.) (Barrels are down 2.3% from career norms though.) To me it seems like in the underlying stats Vladdy is doing pretty well overall in the batters box (not the site) but Bichette looks like a shadow of his former self so far. Anyone see anything about his swing or approach that's different?
scottt - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#444973) #
Kirk has always been better at receiving low balls. Jansen has a tendency to jab at those.
Gausman's bread and butter are low pitches.

scottt - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#444974) #
Vladdy's is third in OBP and fits nicely in front of Turner who leads by a bunch.
Having guys with power hit 5/6/7 is not bad because of that.

I thought it was a weird choice to have Bichette hit lead off when Springer wasn't in the lineup.

Bichette need to hit .300 to have a good OBP.

Semien was a guy who takes pride in playing everyday and unfortunately I don't think that was a good lesson for our guys to learn.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#444976) #
John Schneider says Chad Green will need more than the minimum amount of time on the IL.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#444977) #
nice AB by Bo.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#444978) #
he could have easily conceded and swung hard with 2 outs 2 strikes but instead he bore down, fouled off some tough pitches, took some tough pitches, and got the walk and doubled the SP's pitch count. good stuff.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#444979) #
I noticed Bo was flexing his neck after an AB last night... it could still be bothering him.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#444980) #
Springer is not the hitter he once was, but the negativity here is a little excessive. He's posting career-best marks for strikeout and walk rates, and I don't think a .205 BABIP is going to last. Those strikeout and walk rates might not last either, but Springer is making better swing decisions and more contact, so the direction is right.

This early in the season, batted-ball outcomes are going to have a lot of randomness associated with them, so I prefer to look at the expected numbers.

His quality of contact has been down last year and especially this year, but even so, when you look at his underlying numbers, there's still a modestly-above-average hitter there.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#444981) #
Gausman still doesn't seem to have his good stuff but gutting it out so far.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#444982) #
There was a catcher for the White Sox a few years back whose hitch was to repeatedly sweep dirt in front of him with his glove immediately after flipping the ball back to his pitcher. Perhaps Danny is developing his own style of the yips?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#444983) #
I'd be tempted to pinch hit for Kirk here tbh.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#444984) #
that's unacceptable, vlad.
krose - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#444985) #
Pretty sure Horwitz could help this team more than Guerrero will.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#444986) #
Eleven base runners and only two runs in the first five innings is the story of the game so far.
krose - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#444987) #
Sloppy, careless baseball is the story of this game.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#444988) #
eh, one ridiculous error is the story of this game.
krose - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#444989) #
Vlad’s demeanour reminds me so much of Vernon Wells. Just doesn’t seem to be into the game. Talking to catcher while pitcher is in his windup. Talking to ump and everyone who comes to first base. Both blessed with great athleticism but not really into the game.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#444990) #
I think with the quality of the Jays’ pitching, we’re in for a lot of games like this.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#444991) #
The offense as a whole is a bigger concern than Vlad's error, but yes, Vlad's error was the deciding factor in this game since the Jays offense couldn't score more than 2 runs despite many opportunities. Very frustrating game.

Numbers will normalize and things will get better, but I'm kind of looking forward to the post-Vlad and post-Bichette era. If the Jays can't fix Vlad in year 6 then I think we have to concede that if he does figure it out eventually it will be in another organization.
krose - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#444992) #
Yes. My thoughts too SK.
scottt - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#444993) #
That one was too much like a playoffs game.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#444994) #
The Blue Jays are going to be super annoying at times this year because of their inconsistent offense and tendency to make execution mistakes. But they have the makings of a very good rotation and the bullpen should be decent (and can be upgraded at the deadline). This should keep the team in contention in 2024.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#444995) #
The Athletic has a story this morning ranking the top front offices in baseball. Forty execs were asked for their top 5 front offices, so 200 votes in total.

16 front offices received at least one vote, the Blue Jays were not one of those teams.

The top three are Dodgers, Rays and Braves.
scottt - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#444996) #
When they started, the rotation made a win probable about 3 times out of 5.
Right now, the rotation is pretty close to giving them a shot every day.

At this point, they have the 5th best starter ERA and that's with Francis and Gausman having bad outings. The bullpen isn't there yet, 26th in relief ERA, dead last in HR/9 by relievers. Hopefully, it's coming.

They are 26th in batting average, 17th in OBP, but walk don't often leads to run, so 22nd in run scored and 21st in HR. 15th in stolen bases.

scottt - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#444997) #
40 execs is a weird number. I would have expected 1 per team.
What's an exec? GMs and who else?
Every team has one guy who is answerable to the league and appointed by the owners.
Some of these guys have very limited baseball acumen.

The Rays are in last place right now. Fingers crossed.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#444998) #
It has been more difficult to develop reasonable expectations for players as a result of COVID interruptions.  The situation was so unusual that statlines during the COVID era are of less utility than usual because of minor league ballparks in 2021 and the very attenuated schedule in 2020.  Development for younger players (particularly those not selected for the camp) was greatly affected, and it seems that age expectations need some modification.  Time has passed and I think we have a better idea of what to expect.  Statistically for position players, I look at the period from when the Blue Jays returned to Toronto (July 30, 2021) until today for the long-term outlook and from Davis Schneider's arrival in the big leagues (August 4, 2003) until today for the short-term outlook (I find 3 months a better sample to look at changes from the long-term).  Here's what the charts look like for the long term outlook, sorted by wRC+:

Player wRC+ PA Slash line Baserunning fWAR
Schneider 157 197 .257/.372/.551 -0.3 2.1
Clement 138 98 .340/.347/.500 0.8 1.1
Jansen 134 629 .250/.329/.520 -1.1 6.0
Guerrero 126 1770 .269/.345/.463 -6.6 6.2
Bichette 124 1648 .295/.334/.468 -0.4 10.6
Springer 120 1576 .262/.336/.446 5.1 8.0
Turner 119 1450 .274/.346/.447 -11.2 4.7
Kirk 109 1165 .261/.348/.382 -12.9 7.2
Biggio 103 719 .225/.334/.362 0.7 2.7
Varsho 101 1430 .235/.299/.432 6.5 9.0
Kiermaier 97 470 .255/.312/.396 2.8 2.9
Kiner-Falefa 88 1213 .262/.318/.342 3.5 3.7


And here's the short-term outlook:

Player wRC+ PA Slash line Baserunning fWAR
Schneider 157 197 .257/.371/.551 -0.3 2.1
Jansen 138 73 .237/.384/.441 -0.3 0.7
Clement 131 88 .326/.330/.488 0.5 0.9
Varsho 125 253 .245/.316/.507 0.5 2.5
Biggio 121 230 .263/.383/.368 0.4 1.3
Guerrero 117 323 .248/.344/.418 -2.6 0.6
Turner 115 271 .269/.347/.424 -3.3 0.4
Springer 114 327 .264/.342/.413 0.7 1.4
Bichette 91 226 .249/.296/.383 -0.4 0.5
Kiermaier 80 176 .235/.280/.370 0.1 0.7
Kirk 79 219 .217/.311/.307 -2.8 0.9
Kiner-Falefa 79 182 .234/.297/.323 0.8 0.5


My observations, with positive ones first.  Varsho has always been a good player, and may be taking a small step forward at age 27. We'll see.  Springer is a good player still and a perfectly respectable lead-off hitter and right-fielder (most of the time), but does need regular time off.  Bichette is a very good player in a slump.  Jansen might very well be the best hitter on the club, but his value behind the plate is significantly diminished with the new rules favouring base thieves.  They need to find a way to get him in the lineup and help him reduce the chance of injury.  Schneider is great; his line in 2024 doesn't look like much, but he's been hitting the ball very hard and whiffing less. Biggio appears to have adapted to his neck injury very well , and is a fine player at many different positions.   Ernie Clement has been a revelation and deserves quite a bit more playing time.  Kiermaier, Kirk and Kiner-Falefa are all probably better hitters than the short-term outlook would suggest, and excellent defenders all three of them.  With this roster, you probably want no more than two of them in the lineup at the same time, so that the offence has length (which is its strength, sorry for the rhyme).

It's funny how similar Guerrero Jr. and Turner are, although they get there a very different way and Turner is just a wee bit older.  Their prime ability at this point is reaching base, but the value of that is diminished because they are both very poor baserunners at this point.  Turner is 39 and Guerrero Jr. just lacks focus on the basepaths.  Neither should be in the lineup every day.  A day off every two weeks for Guerrero Jr., like it or not, and 2/3 play for Turner would allow optimum usage of the other fine players on the club.  And they, along with Kirk, need to be pinch-run for late regularly.  I generally don't think batting order decisions matter too much, but I'm not a fan of two players with Guerrero and Turner's profiles in the 1-2-3-4 slots. Turner is probably the better choice on the field, but the club has invested a lot in marketing Guerrero Jr.  They do need to figure that one out. 

There is a lot of talent there, and the makings of the best grouping of position players in the league, with league-leading defence and an above-average offence. 

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#444999) #
There is an error in the long-term chart. Kevin Keirmaier's info is:
wRC+ 104, PA 835, .257/.318/.407, 6.1 baserunning, 5.6 fWAR.
scottt - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#445000) #
If Bichette is in a slump, so is Springer.

Also, Turner has the highest OBP by a mile and Guerrero has the third highest.
Turner is second in run scored and has been replaced by a pinch runner on occasion, so could be higher.  Guerrero is third. There are no issues with having those guys at the top of the lineup, if you have sluggers behind them.

April is too early to evaluate hitters. Mid-June is better.

The big issue I see is not being able to get Vogelbach in the lineup.
The problem will remain if they replace him with Votto.
There's probably a better use for the last bench player. Maybe a third catcher so they pinch run for Kirk?

 


85bluejay - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#445001) #
If Vlad has another pedestrian year and Horowitz continues to rake in AAA, I wonder if the Jays would try moving Vlad at this deadline or maybe even consider non-tendering him, putting that $20m plus to better use - he has only 2025 left before potential free agency.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#445002) #
Who knew that Varsho and Schneider would be our most valuable hitters over the last 3 months?
Ducey - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#445003) #
The Jays should be thinking about trading Bo and Vlad in the same mould as the McGriff/ Fernandez trade.

I have no idea what they would return but likely there are two younger, more controllable players out there.

This might not be the exact right time, but with Kasevich tearing the cover off the ball in AA and and Bardger/Orelvis/ Horwitz raking in AAA, there are likely replacements in house. Supplement them with the returns from Bo/Vlad, (maybe a young RH bopper OF would be one) and hopefully not miss a step in transitioning to the next 5 years.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#445004) #
Springer is a good player still and a perfectly respectable lead-off hitter and right-fielder...

I can't disagree with this statement more. He shouldn't be anywhere near the Top 5 spots in the lineup until he stops trying to pull those "foot outside" pitches... he hasn't been able to consistently get.to them since at least the start of 2022 and he's made no long-lasting adjustments. The bat speed is not there anymore.


Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#445005) #
Reports from Ben Nicholson Smith say Addison Barger is up. I assume Kiermeier is going on the IL.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#445006) #
I'm not entirely sold on an offensive turnaround from Varsho. There's some things to like: better swing decisions this year, a modestly better hard-hit rate and average exit velocities. But his batted-ball profile looks pretty terrible: few line drives, lots of pop-ups and a fair bit of weak contact. As with anyone on a hot streak, there's some reason for optimism, but I'd be pretty cautious with buying into Varsho as a significantly better hitter.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#445007) #
I hope they put Barger in the lineup today at 3B
Michael - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#445008) #
In the latest hot streak the eye test suggests Varsho is more real than fake. The contact has looked solid to me.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#445009) #
This is from about a week ago. Adds one more layer to the lack of HR's at the RC discussion.


"An account called Ballpark Pal, which analyzes park factors, apparently for gambling purposes, has been tracking home runs alongside batted ball data so far this year and finds that dingers are down by 15% this season, primarily because equally-struck balls are not flying as far this year as they have in the past. Ballpark Pal says “At this point, the sample is large enough to suggest some change has taken place. What's behind the change is anyone's guess.”

The account goes on to note, however, that it correctly identified the same dynamic in real time in 2022. That’s the season that Major League Baseball said it would be using deadened balls. Which it apparently did for much of the season before working in livelier balls as the season went on, even if it would not admit that’s what it was doing.

It’s probably too early to draw any real conclusions yet, but given how much MLB has messed with the baseball over the past several years I think it’s fair for us to at least be open to the possibility that it’s doing so again."
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#445010) #
Earlier this month, Kenley Jansen complained that the baseballs were too slick. April was colder than normal. MLB definitely manipulates the baseballs.

The pitchers can't scuff the ball like they used to, since the umpires check their hands and gloves. Instead, catchers can scuff the baseball. Maybe that has something to do with Danny Jansen's return throws to the pitcher, where he taps his glove a number of times, as observed by one Bauxite.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#445011) #
Barger definitely the right one to call up imo.

Of the three offensive standouts in buffalo so far (Orelvis, Horwitz, Barger), it's barger with the most complete hitting line (patience/contact/power) and fewest holes.

And apparently he's the most versatile defensively too.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#445012) #
Yes - and he’s older than Orelvis. Let’s hope he gets a chance to play regularly. Hard to get untracked with a PA here and there.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#445013) #
Barger starts in LF.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#445014) #
Vogelbach gets a start tonight. I don't know if Barger has played in left field before. He has played right field for sure.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#445015) #
Guess we’re back to the Varsho hitting cleanup experiment.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#445016) #
Funny enough, Spencer Horwitz has played more games in LF than Barger has.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#445017) #
Hoping that the Jays find a way to incorporate all of Barger, Martinez, and Horowitz into the 26 man roster by the end of the season and still be a playoff team.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#445018) #
"The Jays should be thinking about trading Bo and Vlad in the same mould as the McGriff/ Fernandez trade."

I've been pushing this idea for a few years now...just not sure who to target in a return anymore.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#445019) #
Alek Manoah is through two innings in Buffalo, 54 pitches. He walked two, gave up three singles and one run. He has three K's.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#445020) #
Buy low, sell high is generally good advice when it comes to trades. Right now the Blue Jays would seem to be in a "sell low" moment with Bo and Vladdy. The situation might be different at midseason.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#445022) #
Barger has never played left field before.

He got the call last night and says he is working on 20 minutes sleep, now fueled by Red Bull.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#445024) #
Manoah got two quick outs in the third, then ....

Walk
Single
Home run
Ground rule double
Home run
Strike out

Total pitches: 88
FB Velocity 92-93 mph
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#445025) #
Playing Barger on 20 minutes sleep seems questionable, especially when Schneider is available and the Royals SP doesn’t have significant L/R splits.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#445026) #
Sportsnet ran a feature on Barger before the game. Some highlights:

He was home schooled
It looks like he has three brothers (from a family photo)
The family has a very large property and they built a major league size infield in their backyard
They also built a batting cage
They regularly had players and teams come by (and sometimes stay) to use the field, including teams from the Dominican
bpoz - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#445027) #
Adrenaline will get Barger through.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#445028) #
Easy first inning for Marsh. Springer, Vladdy and Bo dispatched with ease.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#445029) #
It’s telling that the advice the Blue Jays veterans reportedly gave Barger was, “look for a good pitch, and take a big hack.”

How’s that advice working out for the first three hitters in the lineup?
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#445030) #
Solid contact for Barger. This ballpark (or new ball ) is crazy. Vlad hit one to centre at 110 mph yesterday that didn’t get out. Barger 105, didn’t get out. Both 31/32 degrees.
electric carrot - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#445031) #
"Solid contact for Barger."

Yes but Ned Flanders catches that "triple."
scottt - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#445033) #
My son's team use to go to a place like that once a year, somewhere in NY state.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#445034) #
The play not made by Clement this inning also hurts. The Blue Jays have been let down by their defense yesterday and today.

I disagree with the decision to start Barger in left field. Not only did he fail to make the play on the double, he almost got injured on his running catch. I hate to think how that could have gone had he been a few feet closer to the wall at the time of the catch.

Also, why were the Blue Jays calling Barger after midnight to tell him to come to KC on a 6am flight, and then starting him that day? The kid is operating on next to no sleep. The team should be putting its young players in a position to succeed, not fail.
lexomatic - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#445035) #
Greenfrog:"Playing Barger on 20 minutes sleep seems questionable, especially when Schneider is available and the Royals SP doesn’t have significant L/R splits.""Also, why were the Blue Jays calling Barger after midnight to tell him to come to KC on a 6am flight, and then starting him that day? The kid is operating on next to no sleep. The team should be putting its young players in a position to succeed, not fail."
I agree. Not sure who owns the responsibility for this. But it's really bad management. Complete lack of judgment, that I'd consider fireable.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#445036) #
And using Vogelbach against a LHP in an important situation (two on, none out, Blue Jays down by two runs in the sixth inning)? He has massive career L/R splits:

Against LHP: 35 wRC+

Against RHP: 125 wRC+

That PA was a gift by John Schneider to the Royals.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#445037) #
A worse decision, in my mind, was letting Vogelbach hit against the lefty in that situation. He had like 15 ABs against them all last year.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#445038) #
Vladdy just got a centre-cut 93 MPH FB on the first pitch from Schreiber. He swung late and fouled it off. How many times have we seen him do exactly that over the last year or so?
uglyone - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#445039) #
especially since he had the perfect opportunity last game to pinch hit Vogelbach for Falefa.

99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#445040) #
I disagree on the complaints about playing Barger.
I think it’s good to get the first one out of the way quickly. Let him run on adrenaline instead of having a full day to sit on it/get nervous, etc.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 24 2024 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#445041) #
This team feels similar tone wise to the Shea Hillenbrand year when the infamous incident happened.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#445042) #
I know you’re going to fight this because you said “tone wise”, but the 2006 team is a poor comparator for this team. They had a number of strong offensive seasons, but only a couple strong pitching seasons. The 2008 team is a more apt comparison.

Also, the Hillenbrand thing happened in mid-July. It’s April.
Jonny German - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#445043) #
"Lemon, it's April"
85bluejay - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#445044) #
It's early but it seems a repeat of 2023 is likely.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#445045) #
I’m relatively optimistic because of the pitching, the defense, and the probable infusion of young talent: Rodriguez, Barger, Orelvis, Horwitz (and maybe someone else like Roden).

I’m concerned about Vladdy and Springer, though. I think they are more “average” hitters than “great” hitters at this point. On the other hand, average could be OK on a team with great pitching and defense.

Also, I’m not impressed by the management/coaching of this team. If they make the postseason, I would not be surprised to see more confounding decisions that impact the team’s performance.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#445048) #
Yeah I'm just speaking of the vibe of this team. At the ballpark it's quieter than seasons past. In the media there's a sense of apathy for this bunch. Listening to Jon Schneider last night defend his decision to bat Vogelbach when he did was cringy.

Hearing Vlad and others tell Barger to swing big at a pitch or whatever the exact phrase was reminds me of Hillenbrand saying "play for yourself" to the others. Barker mentioned on radio last week that Bo admitted to chasing home run totals through the first 3 weeks of the season because that's what pays...
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#445049) #
April hitting stats last year:

* 1. Chapman 114pa, 216wrc+
* 2. Guerrero 127pa, 148wrc+
* 3. Bichette 127pa, 139wrc+
* 4. Kirk 79pa, 132wrc+
* 5. Merrifield 85pa, 121wrc+
* 6. Kiermaier 79pa, 102wrc+
* 7. Springer 120pa, 68wrc+
* 8. Varsho 113pa, 68wrc+
* 9. Belt 65pa, 48wrc+

* X. Jansen 61pa, 64wrc+
* X. Espinal 47pa, 45wrc+
* X. Biggio 49pa, 16wrc+

* X. Lukes 5pa, -21wrc+
* X. Luplow 7pa, -49wrc+



Rest of season

* 1. Belt 339pa, 155wrc+
* 2. Bichette 474pa, 121wrc+
* 3. Springer 563pa, 112wrc+
* 4. Guerrero 555pa, 111wrc+
* 5. Kiermaier 329pa, 105wrc+
* 6. Varsho 468pa, 89wrc+
* 7. Merrifield 507pa, 88wrc+
* 8. Kirk 343pa, 88wrc+
* 9. Chapman 467pa, 84wrc+

* X. Jansen 240pa, 128wrc+
* X. Biggio 289pa, 117wrc+
* X. Espinal 207pa, 88wrc+

* X. Schneider 141pa, 176wrc+
* X. Clement 52pa, 144wrc+
* X. Luplow 10pa, 140wrc+
* X. Heineman 37pa, 139wrc+
* X. Horwitz 44pa, 106wrc+
* X. Lukes 26pa, 84wrc+
* X. Eden 6pa, 16wrc+
* X. Dejong 44pa, -76wrc+
* X. McCoy 1pa, -100wrc+
Gerry - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#445050) #
Bowden Francis has been placed on the IL with a forearm tendinitis.

Brendon Little has been recalled.

Lets look at the starting pitcher depth from the start of the season:

Mitch White, DFA'd and traded
Bowden Francis - IL
Ricky Tiedemann - IL
Alek Manoah - not pitching well, a 9.00 ERA in AAA
Chad Dallas - a 7.85 ERA in AAA
Paolo Espino, doing OK in AAA but has a 7.71 major league ERA this season.
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#445051) #
Best Lineup based on this year's stats only:


* 1. SS Clement: 49pa, .268babip, 115wrc+, 5.4war/650pa
* 2. CF Varsho: 84pa, .283babip, 164wrc+, 10.8war/650pa
* 3. DH Turner: 87pa, .356babip, 168wrc+, 4.5war/650pa
* 4. C Jansen: 19pa, .286babip, 113wrc+, 3.4war/650pa
* 5. 3B Falefa: 72pa, .314babip, 113wrc+, 5.4war/650pa
* 6. 2B Biggio: 70pa, .389babip, 113wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* 7. LF Schneider: 56pa, .235babip, 110wrc+, 2.3war/650pa
* 8. RF Springer: 108pa, .238babip, 105wrc+, 2.4war/650pa
* 9. 1B Guerrero: 112pa, .254babip, 105wrc+, 0.6war/650pa

* X. PH Vogelbach: 22pa, .182babip, 67wrc+, -3.0war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier: 62pa, .282babip, 45wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette: 100pa, .260babip, 85wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
* X. C Kirk: 69pa, .200babip, 45wrc+, 1.9war/650pa
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#445052) #
Best Lineup based on Last Calendar Year Stats:

(I don't actually think the smaller sample guys have earned spots ahead of some of the fulltime guys but I'll go with wRC+ here just for fun)


* 1. 3B Clement 101pa, .333babip, 130wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
* 2. LF Schneider 197pa, .323babip, 157wrc+, 6.9war/650pa
* 3. C Jansen 275pa, .247babip, 129wrc+, 5.2war/650pa
* 4. DH Turner 609pa, .311babip, 121wrc+, 1.5war/650pa
* 5. SS Bichette 597pa, .339babip, 115wrc+, 3.5war/650pa
* 6. 2B Biggio 365pa, .335babip, 113wrc+, 2.7war/650pa
* 7. RF Springer 691pa, .293babip, 111wrc+, 2.4war/650pa
* 8. 1B Guerrero 690pa, .264babip, 109wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
* 9. CF Varsho 573pa, .258babip, 97wrc+, 3.5war/650pa

* X. PH Vogelbach 290pa, .270babip, 102wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 402pa, .304babip, 93wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* X. IF Falefa 396pa, .303babip, 93wwrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* X. C Kirk 425pa, .254babip, 85wrc+, 2.9war/650pa



Again i wouldn't actually put the part time guys ahead of the full time guys based on only slightly better stats.

in fact, Springer and Vlad's and Bo's ~110-115wrc+ over the past calendar year are still the guys you want to keep in the top slots unless some of those part-time guys start sustaining a significantly higher level as their roles increase.
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#445053) #
the current top of the lineup is still what you want to to use unless we see some significantly different performances over a larger sample, so based on both usage and performance, using only past calendar year stats, I wouldn't touch the top 4 as of yet, and while i'd lineup the bottom 5 like this, i wouldn't mind switching that bottom 5 all up based on hotness or matchups. BUT, i do think i'd lean towards these 9 being the "starters" for now.... though to be fair Falefa has been earning his playing time so far and Clement has by far the smallest and most unreliable sample.

* 1. RF Springer 691pa, .293babip, 111wrc+, 2.4war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 690pa, .264babip, 109wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
* 3. SS Bichette 597pa, .339babip, 115wrc+, 3.5war/650pa
* 4. DH Turner 609pa, .311babip, 121wrc+, 1.5war/650pa
* 5. LF Schneider 197pa, .323babip, 157wrc+, 6.9war/650pa
* 6. C Jansen 275pa, .247babip, 129wrc+, 5.2war/650pa
* 7. 2B Biggio 365pa, .335babip, 113wrc+, 2.7war/650pa
* 8. 3B Clement 101pa, .333babip, 130wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
* 9. CF Varsho 573pa, .258babip, 97wrc+, 3.5war/650pa

* X. PH Vogelbach 290pa, .270babip, 102wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 402pa, .304babip, 93wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* X. IF Falefa 396pa, .303babip, 93wwrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* X. C Kirk 425pa, .254babip, 85wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#445054) #
Lineup based on Fangraphs Rest of Season Projections:


* 1. RF Springer 527pa, 109wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 562pa, 132wrc+
* 3. SS Bichette 545pa, 116wrc+
* 4. DH Turner 462pa, 111wrc+
* 5. LF Schneider 296pa, 111wrc+
* 6. C Jansen 295pa, 111wrc+
* 7. CF Varsho 497pa, 108wrc+
* 8. 2B Biggio 343pa, 96wrc+
* 9. 3B Clement 213pa, 93wrc+

* X. PH Vogelbach 36pa, 109wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 290pa, 83wrc+
* X. IF Falefa 308pa, 82wrc+
* X. C Kirk 300pa, 108wrc+

* X. PH Votto 172pa, 92wrc+
* X. OF Barger 201pa, 97wrc+
* X. IF Martinez 142pa, 88wrc+

* X. PH Horwitz 12pa, 113wrc+
* X. OF Lukes 47pa, 93wrc+
* X. IF Jimenez 18pa, 83wrc+
* X. C Serven 11pa, 52wrc+


Yeah I'd probably just stick with the projections for now in terms of making out the lineup.
John Northey - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#445055) #
Funny - 9 guys with a 100+ wRC+, and not needing to do silly things to get them in the lineup (like playing Vlad at 3B or something).
  • Yankees: 8 players: Soto (RF), Volpe (SS), Stanton (DH), Verdugo (LF), Cabrera (3B), Judge (CF), Rizzo (1B), and Trevino (C) - 2B is Torres (57 wRC+) or Jones (-100, 0-4)
  • Orioles: 9 players (all 110+): Cowser (LF), Henderson (SS), Westburg (3B), O'Hern (1B), Mountcastle (DH), Rutschman (C), Mateo (IF/OF), Santander (RF), Mullins (CF) - so a utility guy for 2B is the only oddity here
  • Rays: 6 players: Paredes (3B), Rortvedt (C), Rosario (2B), Palacios (RF), Caballero (SS), and Pinto (C). So not a full lineup by any stretch and 2 catchers. Yet they always find a way it seems.
So yeah, 9 at 100+ is pretty good. Trick now is to get them working in sync so more than 2-3 runs score. Looking at the defense for the Yankees my eyes bleed at times - Judge in CF is just asking for problems, as is Soto in RF. What we saw last night with Barger in LF is probably the norm for Yankees fans. The Jays problems are getting Bo back to 100+, and not playing Kiermaier so much - LOVE his defense, feared his bat would be this bad last year. Sigh. Love to cheer him on as he seems like a good guy, but you just can't have him in the lineup so much when his bat is ice cold.
Glevin - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#445056) #
No issue with playing Barger but not pinch hitting for Vogelbach is unforgivable. He can't hit LHP at all.
2023 splits Vs LHP
Vogelbach: -81 WRC+
Turner: 142 WRC+

Maybe it still doesn't work, but in the 6th inning with 1st and 2nd and nobody out, you can't be giving away outs in order to keep the 265th man on your roster who is DHing in the game. Made absolutely zero sense.
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#445057) #
Man do i like Clement's at bats.

and Schneider's.
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#445058) #
it would really suck to lose a series on a 1 run game called off after exactly 5.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#445059) #
Meh, the way the offense is going what are the chances they would put up another two runs?
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#445060) #
The weather forecast for K.C. suggests the rain should clear up.
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#445061) #

Update:
- it's still raining.
- the groundscrew is taking the tarp off to check the condition of the field.
- it is possible this game resumes, but it wouldn't be for a while.
- please send pizza to the booth.

— Dan Shulman (@DShulman_ESPN) April 25, 2024
uglyone - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#445062) #

well, they're prepping the field – looks like the goal is to play again in KC

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) April 25, 2024
scottt - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#445063) #
Yeah, it's either they figured the 6th inning was too soon to pinch hit, which makes no sense or they wanted to give Turner a bigger rest which seems doubtful since he's not playing the field.

Start Vogelbach more often but pull him as soon as they bring a lefty, even if it's the second inning.

Gerry - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#445064) #
Game called, Jays lose the game and the series. Bring on the Dodgers.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 25 2024 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#445065) #
Presented without comment:

TOR #1-3 hitters

.224/.315/.347
.214/.330/.337
.223/.282/.330

LAD #1-3 hitters

.374/.477/.636
.358/.419/.670
.303/.421/.414
John Northey - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 02:26 AM EDT (#445067) #
Of course one also has to check W-L Dodgers 16-11, Jays 13-13, so a 2 1/2 game gap. A Jays sweep (don't laugh) and they'd be ahead of the Dodgers. The Jays tried hard to get the Dodgers #2 hitter but he wanted to be on the west coast I guess. Can't fault our GM for that one. Freeman (#3) the Jays were rumored to have tried for but probably not hard with Vlad at 1B still looking like a stud when Freeman was a free agent. Betts we never had a shot at (signed Boston first, then traded to LA and signed long term) outside of in the draft (Betts was a 5th round pick in 2011, 3 picks before the Sox took him the Jays drafted Andrew Chin who they didn't sign and eventually pitched 2 seasons in the minors for the Yankees).

And anyone who thought our top 3 would hit this poorly pre-season I'm sure would be lying about thinking that. Especially with Bo.
92-93 - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#445069) #
On the bright side, the bullpen is now fresh for the Dodgers series. It gives Schneider the opportunity to use his best arms in a 4-run game, only to then have them unavailable two games later in a tie ballgame.

The Kiermaier injury is a blessing in disguise. The Jays should be a better team playing one CF instead of two, provided Schneider or Barger can actually hit at the MLB level.
greenfrog - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#445070) #
in a 4-run game

Wouldn't this require the Blue Jays to score at least four runs in a game?
dalimon5 - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#445071) #
John Northey - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#445074) #
Just checked - 4 times the Jays have scored more than 5 runs in a game so far (2-1, loss was to the Yankees), 8 times scoring exactly 5. Just twice they were shutout. Feels a lot worse than it is doesn't it?

Meanwhile who'd have thunk that Cleveland would be #1 in the AL at this point? Pre-season a lot around here were saying that they should trade José Ramírez here so he would have a shot at winning - go figure. FYI: Ramirez has a 115 OPS+, right between Jansen and Schneider's OPS+. And for the haters Varsho is at 164 right now.
Gerry - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#445075) #
I believe Cleveland have had an easy schedule so far, lots of Oakland and White Sox (10 games). They are probably not this good.
John Northey - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#445076) #
True enough Gerry - just like the Astros are probably nowhere near this bad (7-19) - can you imagine the doom and gloom here if the Jays had that record? Alex Bregman, the big free agent to be, isn't having a contract push I'd say with a 68 OPS+ so far (ugh), but Jose Altuve is doing everything possible to win (190 OPS+) but cannot cover for José Abreu (-26 at 1B, yes, negative) as well as Bregman.
Marc Hulet - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#445077) #
I looked at the AL East schedules before the season started (based on opponents' 2023 records). The Yankees have the most challenging first half of the year with the Red Sox and Jays having the easiest. In the second half, the Yankees have by far the easiest with the Jays and Sox having the most challenging.

The other teams are fairly even throughout although Baltimore also has an easier 2nd half.

That does not bode well for this poor start.
greenfrog - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#445078) #
Run differential provides a good starting point for assessing team quality (although this is obviously influenced by strength of schedule).

Right now Cleveland is #1 in MLB in run differential at +49. The Blue Jays are 20th in MLB at -14. Some other teams in the AL East and elsewhere:

ATL +44
ARI +35
BAL +29
LAD +28
NYY +22
BOS +21
TBR -24
scottt - Friday, April 26 2024 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#445081) #
The Blue Jays's easier par of the schedule is in May when they play Washington, Minnesota, Detroit and the White Sox. The Yankees have played Miami and Oakland which aren't that challenging, but they went 3-2 in those series. They did (a lot) better than the Jays in Houston and that's the difference at this point.

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