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TINSTAPP. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect)

The Jays have a number of pitching prospects but there is a cloud over pitching development this week. Ricky Tiedemann hit the IL this week. Brandon Barriera went on it less than two week ago. One of the biggest risers in the prospect lists this season has been Landen Maroudis. He left his start yesterday with an undisclosed injury. Kendry Rojas pitched April 10th and hasn't been seen since. Last years up and comer Nolan Perry is on the IL. Dahian Santos is on the 60 day IL. We don't know how serious are many of these injuries, if the Jays are lucky they will be short term absences, or it could be a disaster.

On the field Buffalo bashed, but New Hampshire, Vancouver and Dunedin didn't.



Buffalo 16 Columbus 4

New Hampshire 5 Portland 8

Vancouver 1 Eugene 2

Clearwater 2 Dunedin 0


Three Stars

Third Star - Orelvis Martinez

Second Star - Addison Barger

First Star - Spencer Horwitz


Boxes


NOTES


Seventeen hits for Buffalo. Spencer Horwitz had four hits and drove in three runs. Orelvis Martinez was 2-5 including a three run home run. Addison Barger homered and doubled. Leo Jimenez hit his first home run of the season. Luis De Los Santos also hit his first homer. Nate Lukes did not start but he had two hits. Cam Eden doubled twice.


Martinez had five home runs this week. If I can nitpick for a minute, three of them were in the ninth or tenth innings. Those aren't the best pitchers but it is a nitpick.


New Hampshire lacked good pitching. Trent Palmer started and just went two innings with four runs allowed. Portland scored one run off Eric Pardinho who pitched the third. CJ Van Eyk then gave up two runs in the fourth.


The Fisher Cats had just five hits. Phil Clarke had two hits. Josh Kasevich went 1-4 and his average is down to .364 having been at .500 eight days ago. He hit under .200 this week. His true level is in between but we will have to wait a while longer to see. Alan Roden is hitting .296, which is fine but doesn't support the argument that he should have started the season in AAA.


Pat Gallagher pitched 5.1 innings striking out four for Vancouver. He was charged with one run. The score was tied at one until the bottom of the eighth. The C's had just five hits.


Landen Maroudis threw 2.1 innings before leaving the field with an injury. Dunedin outhit Clearwater 10-7. Manuel Beltre had three hits, Yhoangel Aponte and Edward Duran had two each. Arjun Nimmala had a double.


Pitchers Dropping Like Flies | 12 comments | Create New Account
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greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#444914) #
Orelvis (168), Barger (163) and Horwitz (164) have almost identical wRC+ stats in AAA this year. But they are very different hitters with different underlying numbers. Interesting coincidence.
GabrielSyme - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#444915) #
Adam Macko last man standing among the pitching prospects.

Presented without comment:

SwStr%

Horwitz - 6.3%
Barger - 8.0%
Orelvis - 18.9%
bpoz - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#444919) #
I am very worried about our good young pitching prospects getting hurt.

G Urbaez is back from injury as are T Palmer and Van Eyk. Pardinho took a long time but is back.
jerjapan - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#444924) #
I know it's early, but that Bisons' lineup is raking. 

CF and C are depth options for the big league club, but there is a prospect at pretty much every other position. 

Keeping Clement and Davis on the big league roster was the right call, keeping Vogelbach at 2 mill, and no options, for the final roster slot?  Not so much.  
I'd look to promote Horwitz first, based on his age, clear readiness, and the desire for more reps at 2B for Orelvis, but Barger feels very close to big-league ready as well. 

Phil Clarke should probably be in AAA.  He has an Eric Kratz vibe to me, but the org likely wants him getting the regular playing time, and is happy to let 30 year old Max McDowell take the AAA depth role. 


John Northey - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#444925) #
A good question now is who comes up if player X gets hurt.
  • Kirk/Jansen: Brian Serven (2 for 3 in AAA)
  • Vlad/Turner/Vogelbach: Horwitz (353/488/485)
  • Bo/IKF/Biggio/Clement/Schneider: pick one of Orelvis (333/392/681), Barger (314/435/586), Jimenez (213/413/298). Yes, Jimenez - if the plan is for whoever comes up to sit on the bench as an emergency guy only
  • Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer: Barger, Lukes (290/343/452), Will Robertson (289/426/711 - yeah, not on the 40 man but damn is he hitting)
  • Starting pitcher: Manoah (10.13 ERA but getting better each time out), Espino (3.38 ERA in AAA, 7.71 in majors), then who knows? Odds are Francis would get the starts until Manoah is ready
  • Relief pitching: Pop (RH 2.35 ERA 7 G 7 2/3 IP 7 H 4 BB 9 K), Little (LH 2.89 ERA 9 G 9 1/3 IP 7 H 8 BB 16 K) I figure. Both on 40 man already. Hagen Danner also on the 40 man (7 G 7 2/3 IP 8 H 3 BB 7 K 4.70 ERA).

So hopefully no more pitching injuries for a few weeks until Green is healthy and/or Manoah is ready. IMO the lineup is fine outside of catching should an injury happen based on AAA stats (which is all we really have to go by). If the guy coming up is to sit and play in emergency only (ala Serven while Jansen was hurt) then Jimenez and Lukes are tops. If they want to give a kid a real shot then Barger and Orelvis are tops, with a shot at Robertson if his improvements this year are for real (unlikely, probably just a crazy strong hot streak, but worth thinking about).

2025 will see openings at catcher (Jansen), DH (Turner), OF (Kiermaier), a starting slot (Kikuchi), and a pen slot (Richards). Catcher is going to be a headache if they can't resign Jansen, DH there are always 1001 options, the OF will probably be Schneider moving to LF full time, pen will be Pearson, starting hopefully will be Manoah & Rodriguez with Tiedemann nipping at their heels. I expect the Jays to put a real effort into resigning Kikuchi and Jansen, maybe Turner depending on his demands.
bpoz - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#444926) #
Teams that are near/at/over the luxury tax level have a tough decision to make. LAD, NYY and NYM don't seem to care. But teams like Toronto, Philadelphia and Texas probably do care and so will use a few ready prospects.

Good FAs this off season were very expensive. Snell signed with a 1 year opt out. Berrios has an opt out after 5 years I think. The Jays very fast rebuild was impressive but Shapiro used a lot of payroll to accomplish this. He did not build with high draft picks and A Martin (5th pick) used up most of the draft budget with only 5 rounds. Good trades for Berrios and Chapman were crucial. The good luck trade for Stripling. But the White trade was bad luck.

Buffalo will improve the O a lot with Orelvis and Barger and any surprises. We could skip a 2026 rebuild.

greenfrog - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#444927) #
Wall Street Journal headline: "Baseball’s Most Notorious Umpire Is Back—and People Are Losing Their Minds"

Angel Hernandez has become quite the celebrity.

jerjapan - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#444932) #
I think you nailed the depth chart on the position players John Northey.
I do think there is a depth chart in the pen as well, so Little for Cabrera or Mayza, Pop for a reliever and Pinto for length. 

You are right though, that it will be 40 man guys only in the pen unless someone forces the issue. 
Gerry - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#444935) #
So Tiedemann is to meet with team doctors in Toronto this week. Barriera is seeing an UCL doc so I am not optimistic on him. Maroudis is to have an MRI...too soon.
GabrielSyme - Monday, April 22 2024 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#444937) #
Great story on Angel Hernandez. For those who aren't subscribers, there are some interesting nuggets I didn't know, most of which are exculpatory. Ump Scorecards has Hernandez towards the bottom, but not particularly close to the absolute bottom for overall accuracy at home plate. And apparently MLB's internal metric doesn't have him at the bottom either.
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#444962) #
The potential loss of the top 3 pitching prospects for significant time will be a huge setback for the Jays - all 3 have one thing in common - hard throwers who are glorified for throwing high heat and everyone got excited over any increase in velocity. Teams, fans and media can move on to the next hard thrower issue a top of the agenda problem.

The Red sox pitchers are having tremendous early season success and apparently are using a high percentage of breaking pitchers - zigging when others are zagging.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 23 2024 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#444975) #
Buffalo rained out.

Herd Chronicles had a chat with Orelvis. He has a plan when hitting. Casey Candaele is also very impressed with the hitting. Martinez said that he is getting comfortable at 2B and Candaele said he has improved on D but is still learning.
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