Gil walks a lot of hitters (5.95/9IP in his career). I hope Springer, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette work the count and don't let him off the hook by hacking early in their PAs.

Today is Jackie Robinson Day.  # 42

I hope they swing at good pitches, no matter the count.
Angel Hernandez had the plate the last time the Jays faced Gil, so the results don't necessary mean anything. 

Springer .222/.319/.349
Bo .214/.279/.339
VGJ .194/.306/.371

Still have some work to do on their plate discipline.

Jansen up.

The Yankees bullpen has the lowest strikeout percentage and the third-worst K:BB percentage in MLB, so not allowing Gil to go deep tonight is important for the series.

Jansen is up, but Kirk is starting tonight. Obviously no Davis Schneider because that's how the Jays roll but Kirk without exaggeration has been horrendous and has played about 95% of the season so far. Maybe it's because of Bassitt, I don't really keep track of the "personal catcher" situations. Thankfully the Jays face Rodon tomorrow so Davis and Jansen should both be in the lineup. It's gotten to the point where I root for the Jays to face lefties now.

Replying to a comment from the old thread:

I know the elderly take a little more time to heal up, but you'd think he would get over a rolled ankle by now. No?

I rolled over my ankle (pretty badly) on my 30th birthday and it took six months to heal. Now, athletes aren't overweight software developers, but it can take a little while, yeah. :(

Blue Jays manager John Schneider says Jordan Romano & Erik Swanson will be activated “soon” at which point Romano will close again. Sounds like the plan may be for tomorrow.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) April 15, 2024

Kirk has been bad but a) it's tiny sample and b) he had a good game last time out. Kirk's not gonna get mostly benched just because jansen is up. Especially since jansen is super streaky in his own right.

According to Arden Zwelling, Votto was hitting off a tee & doing defensive work as of April 8. That presumably means the ankle isn't too bad, so maybe we'll see a minor league assignment in the near future.

If it weren't dead already, the idea that players looking good in spring portends good things in the regular season definitely would have taken a further hit with this year's Jays.

I rolled over my ankle (pretty badly) on my 30th birthday

My own bitter, bitter experience is that the more often you roll your ankle, the quicker it "heals". But the first time you do it, it takes forever to stop hurting. It took about two months the first time I did in my right one when I was about 20, and about the same amount of time the first time I did it to my left ankle when I was about 32. (Tennis injuries!) But after repeated abuse, I could roll my ankle, scream in pain, hobble for half an hour, and be fine the next day.

Bichette, ugh

now that's an annoying 1st inning.

Is it any wonder why this team struggles to score runs.

Bo, what are you doing. You’re usually better than that.

Weren’t they supposed to clean up the baserunning after the 2023 postseason?

That just cannot happen. A right handed pitcher with no clue where the ball is going and you get picked off first. It's little league stuff with these guys sometimes.

Moment of truth for the manager's decision to start Varsho over Schneider tonight.

and with a wild pitcher Varsho can't stop himself from swinging at the first pitch, high.

It is actually ridiculous how bad Gil's control is.

...but to his credit he corrects himself and lays off 4 pretty close high pitches to earn the walk. I think at least one of them actually caught a touch of the zone but very tough for the ump to call that one.

oh man the ump bailed him out.

come on Falefa hang in there.

Yeah Buck that's right. Expand the zone when the guy throws 80% balls. Good choice of words there.

nobody be a hero. keep taking these walks.

I will say, he’s at best a league average bat but IKF isn’t completely clueless as a hitter. I like his swing when he’s going the other way (as I prefer with most guys). He’s had good at bats.

Good God that was a horrible at bat from Kiermaier.

Why did everyone start hacking?

Kirk you speed demon. way to hustle.

What is going on with this team? What was Varsho thinking? There are just no words. Awful, awful baseball.

Yeah Kevin is fighting it isn’t he. You start pressing, you start expanding the zone.

another baserunning error.

Hero ball again.

Horrible baseball to come away with only two runs after that meltdown by Gil. Fail.

5 walks on 26 balls thrown by Gil thru the first 8 batters and the jays only score 2.

Jesus Murphy these guys are hard to watch.

It's insane. KK and Varsho let Gil off the hook. KK with an OPS+ of 17 and he's up there hacking away at collarbone-level pitches against a guy with no control.

It's taken a massive number of mental errors to only be up 2-1 in this game. At some point, you just have to accept that this team is: a) poorly managed; b) full of players that just don't get it; or c) both. Last year's team was the worst baserunning team in Jays' history and this looks to be the same.

The Yankees are excellent two strike hitters.

How about benching players for bone headed plays?

Hmmmm. Yeah this team just doesn’t play solid fundamental baseball do they. Shocked Varsho didn’t try to score… and he’s one of the hustle guys we like! He can’t hit a damn lick… so he kinda has to.

Astonishing how consistently terrible their approach at the plate is, all around. It’s confounding. I don’t understand how a team can be so solid on one side of the ball, and just so infuriatingly clueless on the other. Genuinely bizzare.

The Blue Jays seem incapable of addressing these issues, perhaps for the reason uglyone mentioned the other day (management is composed of a bunch of middle managers who lack authority). No matter how many costly blunders are made, nothing changes and everyone in management keeps offering the same platitudes.

“ At some point, you just have to accept that this team is: a) poorly managed; b) full of players that just don't get it; or c) both.”

It’s definitely both. I’m not sure how the FO saw what happened in 2023 and decided to bring everyone back. Completely unacceptable to only score 2 runs in that inning but not surprising.

What was the longest most sustained hot streak a Blue Jays hitter has gone on the last two seasons? Was it Bo in September 2022? I'm genuinely at a loss.

Why are we trying to steal bases when the guy has literally walked seven guys?

What was Varsho thinking?

Ummm ... Varsho walked.

Well to try to bring some positivity to this - I think that's Kirk's seventh straight on base through hit or walk.

He failed to score on a ground ball in the hole between short and third. Even if he waited for the third baseman to grab it (which he shouldn't.. it was a pretty easy ball to read at field level..the defense was playing back) he should have scored easily. The third baseman even had to throw across his body.

He just froze.

All the earlier aggravation notwithstanding, that was a clutch hit by Kirk.

Varsho's horrible baserunning was the cause of that comment I'm pretty sure.

Positives: The pitching and defense on this team is superb and fun to watch. Lord knows that's why most of us are still here. We sure ain't here to watch Vladdy and Bo both hit below .200.

Sorry. Bo's hitting .227. Everything's fine guys.

Gausman's a bit (but not too) worrying, but the pitching looks realgud again, especially with Romano/Swanson coming back tommorrow, and the nice debut from Yariel.

but man it's just impossible not to feel this offense is less than the sum of their parts. they'll never not be frustrating.

wake up Ump that was an obvious brutal call.


get yourself a better angle next time.

So bad. Guerrero Jr. walks, Gil is at 90 pitches in the fifth inning with none out, and Bichette swings at the *first pitch* and grounds into a DP.

The fact the Blue Jays are going to let a guy who was this erratic make it through five innings is just crazy bad.

I'm getting to the point where if they traded Bo I wouldn't be upset.

The SP is near his pitch count, just walk Vlad and he goes after crap on the first pitch.

And it happens year after year.

As I’ve said far too often… and I’m sick of doing so: constantly bad approaches. We could’ve chased Gil many innings ago… still a close game. It drives me completely bonkers. These good pitchers deserve a lineup with at least half a clue.

This board is so absurdly negative, it's getting hard to be on here. Jays winning 3-1, playing overall decently this season with plenty of room to improve and comments here are as if they are the White Sox. Just unrelenting negativity.

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1780035291442499912

Glevin, have you been watching this game?

And I assure you, if this team were trying to lose, like the White Sox are, the tenor would be different.

Oh come on, let him finish the inning guys.

helluvan outing there, Big Chris. His season is all the way back on track now. That was great.

now it's time for our two bullpen lefties to get THEIR seasons back on track.

two tricky fly balls but good baby steps from mayza the last couple outings.

Funny to read this thread - the radio broadcast thought Varsho would’ve been dead meat had he broken for home.

Leroux has been all over Gil’s control all game. He said you rarely see a P bouncing his fastball in front of the plate like Gil does. Sounds like they really let him and the Yankees tired bullpen off the hook tonight.

vladdy's early plate discipline drying up already.

oh wait he has two walks tonight scratch that last comment.

that horrible last swing triggered me.

Understandably

I don't know. It was kind of a weirdly struck ball...but even if Varsho freezes, with his speed by the time the third baseman gathered and threw out Springer, with his speed, he would have/should have scored.

And the defence was playing back. Unless it's a line drive or a pop up or a fly ball to the outfield, you should be going.

nice to see Green's velo steadily creep up that inning.

4-seamers in order:

* 94.7
* 94.7
* 94.8
* 95.2
* 95.1
* 95.2
* 95.4
* 95.6
* 96.5
* 96.1

ah that last one was actually 95.1 but the others are all right.

it'll take ages for him to earn my trust but Yimi has been nails to start this year.

nice win.

The pitching was fantastic tonight - nice win. The offence made that a closer game than it should have been but c’est la vie. As for Leroux saying Varsho made the right play - no way. If you want to be charitable you would say that Varsho misread the hit ball and/or where the defense was playing, froze as a consequence and then didn’t compound his problem by breaking way too late for home. If you want to be charitable. Otherwise he just misread the play and should have scored.

Agreed, nice win against the division leader.

Yimi is throwing a full MPH harder on average than in any previous season. That’s impressive at age 33 (I’m guessing not sustainable though).

I was one of many who wanted Garcia gone to create room in the pen and budget but it does seem I was wrong. I love when the Jays do something I disagree with and it works out.

IKF vs Chapman is looking like that too. IKF is easily as good as Chapman with the glove, and wRC+ wise it is IKF 126 Chapman 65 so far. Who would've thunk?

The issue with Varsho running is that it is such a clear play to break for the plate even if there is a high chance of being thrown out because the cases are

1. If the guy on 2nd advances to 3rd on the throw home you have the same number of outs and 1st and 3rd instead of 2nd and 3rd if you don't try.

2. Even if the guy on 2nd doesn't advance and you get thrown out you are looking at 1st and 2nd with the same outs rather than 2nd and 3rd. That isn't nothing, but it isn't the end of the world.

3. "Normal case" is they throw out the guy on 1st and you score and the guy from 2nd goes to 3rd on the throw and now you are guy on 3rd and run in rather than guys on 2nd and 3rd and no run in.

4. Best case is they try for the play at the plate but you are safe and now you get the run, runners on 1st and 3rd and one less out than the 2nd and 3rd with no run and one more out.

There was one out when the ground ball was hit so the expected run outcome of the four cases are:

1. 1st and 3rd with 2 outs (0.471) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so 1 counts as -0.099 compared to not trying.

2. 1st and 2nd with 2 outs (0.433) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so 2 counts as -0.137 compared to not trying.

3. 3rd with 2 outs and a run in is (1.413) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so 3 counts as +0.843 compared to not trying (and even if runner didn't advance that would be 1.305 so +0.733)

4. 1st and 3rd with a run in and only 1 out is (2.140) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so that is a full +1.570 compared to not trying.

So even if you stipulate that they'll throw him out 80% of the time, half of which the runner from 2nd goes to 3rd, and 10% of the time they'll try to throw him out but he scores, and 10% of the time they concede and just go for the out at 1st you are looking at:

40% * -0.099 (out at home, 1st and 3rd) + 40% * -0.137 (out at home, 1st and 2nd) + 10% * +0.843 (concede run, out at first) + 10% of 1.570 (try for out at home and fail)

== +0.1469 runs

So even if he's thrown out 80% of the time going home, it is still a very good play to do. If they concede more or he's safe more, it is just even better of a play. Even if you turn all of the best outcome (the safe at the plate) into concede the run (so 80% out at home, half runner advances to 3rd) and 20% sure out at 1st run score, runner advances that works out to 0.0742 so that is still positive even if they throw him out 80% of the time and concede with the play at 1st the other 20% of the time.

Note all the run expectancy numbers are using https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/ it changes slightly obviously depending on the pitchers, hitters, baserunners actually in play, but this isn't a close decision, this is as close to an obvious and free option - made even more obvious by the defense playing back and conceding the run in theory - in practice the delay might mean they go home but that still might mean the best outcome (try for the out and fail).

Maybe when he was running the probability percentages in his head, his CPU froze?

To these eyes, it looked like Varsho would've been thrown out at the plate.

Glevin...I couldn't agree more about this site getting crazy negative. I actually read some of the comments to this thread before knowing the final score of the game and I honestly assumed the Jays were getting blown out by the Yankees!

Varsho looked dead to rights at home. To me the bigger blunder was Bichette getting picked off. It looked like Gil would walk in runs (which he did the next inning), and he took the bat out of the hand of a guy that (predictably according to the baseball deities) got a hit immediately when he came back to the plate. The Jays make way too many of these types of mental errors - since they are basically hoping to compete for a wildcard as a ceiling, management would do well to minimize the number of game-breaking errors committed between the collar and cap.

I was part of the negative yesterday. I was having flashbacks to last year. Bases loaded and nobody out with a pitcher that cant hit the strike zone. Got to do better than that.

I have to wonder that in the same way that pitchers are chasing velocity, the hitters seem to be chasing EV rather than just getting the bat on the ball.

On the positive, how about IKF? I dont know if he will hit better than Chapman this year (I am guessing it will be closer than people were thinking), but his defense is really fun to watch. He anticipates really well. Add in the salary difference, the 4th round pick, more playing time at 3B for Clement, and I am happy not to watch Chapman strike out all year.

With Romano and Swanson likely being activated, I'm wondering if the Jays can interest Houston in White. They're desperate for arms right now. They're promoting a pitcher from AAA with a 12.00 ERA.

You won't get much for him but maybe a low-level lottery ticket.

Or a bigger deal for someone like Pearson or Richards.

i'm sorry the first couple innings last night definitely deserved negativity.

and then the game got better, and more positive.

After Kirk got demoted on Batter's Box, he went 4/9 with 3 BB and 2 K. It should be good for his body having Jansen back around.

There are actually 5 teams with a worse wOBA from their C position, which is remarkable because Kirk's double yesterday was the Jays' first XBH. The Yankees are one of the 5.

"i'm sorry the first couple innings last night definitely deserved negativity."

Gosh, I thought you of all people would be aware of the dangers inherent in small sample sizes.

They got lucky last night. But they may still feel the impacts over the next two games. They could have dealt a huge blow to the Yankees if they had knocked Gil out and gotten into the bullpen early. All their bullpen arms are now available and rested save for one in Marinaccio (Santana only went an inning so he's likely fine but is also a low-leverage arm).

Rodon and Stroman have a good chance at buzzsawing through the Jays lineup given its struggles and the park's power suppression.

Frankly, I'd give Vladdy a day off and let Vogelbach play.

"Gosh, I thought you of all people would be aware of the dangers inherent in small sample sizes."

if we ignored all small samples, nobody would make any game comments at all!

Well, that might reduce the negativity!

It's not surprising that bad plays get more heat and discussion in comments here (and elsewhere).

I tend to make a distinction between bad plays and bone-headed plays. I think Varsho should have broken for home, but a) I think Varsho might not have read off the bat that it wouldn't carry to an infielder on the fly; and b) I don't expect runners to have a perfect understanding of the base/out state. So a poor play, but understandable, and I wouldn't hold it against him very much.

On the bone-headed side of things, getting picked off 1B with an erratic pitcher on the mound, a selective hitter at the plate, and when you're the trailing runner is terrible in every dimension.

Similarly, KK swinging at three fastballs above the zone after three straight walks is mind-blowingly poor decision-making.

Mitch White has been DFA'ed and Nate Pearson has been optioned to make room for Romano and Swanson. I said this yesterday, but I don't see the need to rush both guys back on the roster today, especially after neither had successfully completed a full inning during their rehab stints. I expect White to be claimed but I think the Pearson is the bigger loss in the short-term - at least right now, he's a more reliable option than Romano and Swanson and certainly doesn't "deserve" a demotion.

I imagine Pearson will be back up over Francis soon enough.

maybe as soon as after Yariel's next start.

I get the argument for DFAing White, but optioning Pearson is a bad move. Cabrera has been terrible, lefthandedness is not enough to keep him over Pearson.

glad they cut bait on white for sure.

especially after that sudden "velocity spike" proved to be a mirage.

I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say there isn't a single team in the league who would have chosen Cabrera over Pearson. Both have options, and Cabrera aside from 2021 has been a sub replacement level reliever. Is throwing with your left hand in the 3 batter minimum era really that important? I'm sure Pearson will be back up at some point, but just a bad look in general when you have two relievers with options and choose to keep the inferior one and send down the one who has been good.

Past Calendar Year

* Cabrera 63gms, 0.9ip/gm, 108era-, 107fip-, 110xfip-, 0.1war, 0.1war/65gms
* Pearson 41gms, 1.2ip/gm, 100era-, 102fip-, 111xfip-, 0.1war, 0.1war/65gms
* Francis 23gms, 2.0ip/gm, 101era-, 108fip-, 95xfip-, 0.1war, 0.3war/65gms



close enough overall, and I imagine Cabrera still has the best numbers vLHH over that time, probably by a good margin.

I kind of get it. So far in his career, Pearson has huge R/L splits, especially so this year (1.11 xFIP against RHB, 6.15 xFIP against LHB). Cabrera hasn't been great overall, but he has been better against LHB than Pearson. He might have greatly utility than Pearson at the moment, since the Jays currently have lots of quality RH relievers.

In any event, having too many good relievers is a nice problem to have.

Not worried about Pearson. Guys will get hurt and he'll be up soon. Personally I would have sent down or ILd Mayza I think whose fastball is way down and hasn't looked very good.

Ken Holtzman (78), Whitey Herzog (92), and Carl Erskine (97) have died in recent days.

Timor mortis conturbat me.

I thought that in Pearson's last outing he might have looked the best that I have ever seen him. So, I do find it odd that he was optioned. However, if the option is merely to allow a multi inning reliever to stick around for the next week or two then I can sort of understand the choice. I'm also not sure that Cabrera is the second left right now - Mayza does not look good at all.

As for the comments about negativity, its a very subjective thing and I understand that each person will have their own take on things and would want to see the discussion have one flavour or the other. For me, I've been on here since the days of Coach primarily because the discussion is always civilized (a staggering achievement for this community in today's social media age); generally tending to be balanced and, just as importantly, analytically focused. On the offensive side of things last night the first 3 innings were pretty poorly played. It was actually a little hard to watch in parts. I think it was ripe for negative comments.

Romano and Swanson have to provide good pitching almost immediately to justify the rushed moves. I guess Garcia and Green have their roles slightly altered. Rodriguez and Francis are still basically unproven. Gausman needs up to 3 more starts to get fully ready. We will see if Manoah actually earns his way back up. He looked better in his last start with good velo but the control is not yet there. Whoever evaluated the pitching movement will be proven smart or not. But we have a lot of pitching depth at the moment.

Time for our hitting stars to get hot.

Bo's caught stealing was bad.
Varsho not scoring depends on what he was told to do.
Against a bad pitcher, there's no reason to go on contact.
The Yankees might have been conceding the run or not.

There's no way Boone would have used one off his good pitchers if Gil had been knocked out early.
Nothing was lost there. The game was just closer than it needed to be.

Thumbs up on the line-up today. Varsho should certainly play over KK whenever there is currently a choice.

A game like today is definitely where having two DH only bats comes into play. If you had another RH OF you would have more flexibility about your initial line-up choices and to play match-ups more readily in late game situations.

Has any number-one prospect had a worse start to their major league career than Jackson Holliday. He's now up to 20 ABs, with one single and eleven strikeouts. I'm sure he'll eventually be good, but gosh.

love that patience from vladdy. stick with it please.

Great AB by Bo.

"I only drink (whiskey) on the day I pitch" - Yusei Kikuchi.

And to be clear he drinks it after the game, not before.

nice throw, davis.

Defense letting Kikuchi down in this inning.

I have to drink on the days Kikutchi pitches as well.

Keep making Rodon throw pitches. Don’t let him off easy.

Trust this process, vladdy. even if you don't get dingers right away. this is the way.

Kikuchi is pitching great this season. This game should probably be something like 3-0 or 4-0 Blue Jays right now.

Kikutchi has been really good so far. No doubt. It's still early but Clement really looks like a guy who can do a decent number of good things offensively.

Bo's error made it moot, but Jansen deserved an error for that play at the plate.

Not piling on Gil last night and being forced to use Mayza/Green/Garcia will have an immediate effect tonight.

Attaboy Vladdy!

good result for vladdy.

and both pitches were strikes so i can't get too upset.

but i don't love hacking on the first two pitches against a pitcher struggling so badly with his command.

You want him to take a strike and fall behind instead? Bo swinging at two bad pitches with the bases loaded in the 3rd and then watching strike 3 go by was much worse.

yes Bo was worse.

and no i wouldn't have minded seeing vlad take a strike there. especially on that breaking ball.

The Blue Jays desperately needed a hit in that situation. And Vladdy delivered. He's had a good game at the plate.

Beautiful play in the field by IKF and Kikuchi to get the first out in T5 -- an important out.

I am hoping this Mirror Universe version of Danny Jansen reverses his injury luck.

Hmmm. Sending the really old guy on a hit and run, while admirably unexpected… might’ve been ambitious.

Yusei has thrown some explosive fastballs tonight, freezing batters on called strike three (most recently Stanton).

fantastic stuff from kikuchi. shots on me.

Clement doing everything he can on the field to prove he’s a major-league ballplayer. Brilliant slide on that play.

Varsho had no shot in that AB. Clement looks more likely to be a capable hitter than Schneider to me.

I like the aggressiveness with a 3-1 lead, even with Turner. Got them a precious 4th run there.

That was a base running clinic by Clement.

Great job by Richards to bear down and limit the damage to two runs. That inning could have unravelled on the Blue Jays with Soto and Judge due up next.

I would switch to Varsho in left field and KK in center field for the 8th and 9th innings.

Say the score stays 5-3. Do you use Romano or Green T9?

Definitely Green, but the radio broadcast said earlier that Schneider will be using Romano in the 9th right away.

I found it amusing that Buck & Dan talked about just that, greenfrog, and decided that perhaps the thinking was to keep Schneider's bat in the game, just in case. But perhaps KK's defense would negate needing Davis' bat!

I’ll admit I didn’t love Garcia’s option vesting last year. Wrong. He’s been lights out. Good managing by Schneider to use his best reliever against that part of the Yankees lineup.

vladdy staying patient all the way through. very nice.

Romano is rusty. Fingers crossed he can scrape his way out of this jam. We’re gonna see a lot of sliders I think.

Safe to breathe yet?

just like they drew it up.

nice win.

Phew. The Jays win this series and are off to a 6-2 start at home, and 4-6 on the road vs. 3 good teams in TB/HOU/NYY. Despite some unrealistic expectations, that's a solid start for this club.

And "they are who we thought they were".

this is the yanks' first series loss of the year.

And the first time the Jays have won a series against them in Toronto since 2019.

8 home games: 5 HR hit, 8 HR allowed.
10 road games: 9 HR hit, 19 HR allowed.

Just a small sample, or will it continue to be really hard to hit homers at Skydome again this year?

The Varsho catch was good but Ernie Clement made a very good play too in the ninth.

Would Kikuchi agree to an extension for a couple of more years, along the lines of the Chris Sale (Atlanta) extension? Might be worth considering.

Kikuchi has looked excellent this season. Also, Clement is looking like a really good utility player. Good contact ability, speed, and defense.

Nice win tonight.

It's worth noting that, if you looked just at the advanced metrics, you'd think that Vlad would be off to a great start to the season. Overall, his xwOBA was .396 entering today. He's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than ever, and hence walking more; his average exit velocity nearly where it was in 2021 and is 97th percentile, and his hard-hit rate is higher than his 2021 rate; he's hitting more line drives and few pop-ups.

On a non-quantitative level, I think the Vlad of a year or two ago would be frustrated at the lack of results over the first couple weeks and would have started pressing; this year Vlad's plate discipline seems to be, if anything, getting better right now.

the other thing is that either league wide offense is down or there has been some jays-specific park effects or something because at the moment vladdy has a 118wrc+ (which adjusts for league offense and park effects and such), which is actually pretty decent.

the league wide slash line was .244/.317.411 last year and is .243/.318/.388 so far this year. ISO is down from .167 to .146. Some of the decline in power might be due to the cooler spring weather.

Couple of rough defensive plays early from Bo and Jansen, but from that point on the defense was just fantastic all around.

Not really a fan of rehabbing Romano in the Majors with a slim 2 run lead. Thankfully they weren't burned.

I'm becoming a big fan of Ernie Clement. I think the Jays have found a good player out of nowhere. Almost feels wrong that he's not in a Rays jersey.

I watched the condensed game and while there were a few things not to like (the Bo error, the Jansen missed catch and tag) there were lots and lots of things that looked really good.

Kikuchi looked amazingly good. Some really nice defense on the tip around ground ball, on Schneider in lf, and Varsho too. The generally good baserunning avoiding the tag and causing trouble on the 1st and 3rd steal. Even if Vlad isn't hitting the HR the good eye and the hard squared up contact back up the middle is a good sign. And more generally just seemed a fun game.

Keep it going with Gausman versus Stroman for the sweep!

One thing I liked about yesterday's game was Kikuchi's confidence level. You could see it in his body language -- relaxed, good tempo, a bit of swagger. If he missed his location, no big deal. He was right back on his game on the next pitch. He fielded well, too.

Teoscar Hernandez is hitting .286/.337/.532 for the Dodgers with 14r 5hr 18rbi. It's nice hitting behind 4 guys with OBPs over .385+.

Not to be outdone out west, Lourdes Gurriel is hitting .278/.350/.528 in Arizona with 14r 5hr 20rbi.

"RBI Machine" Justin Turner leads the Jays with 9 ribbies.

Offense is definitely down this year. Last year through this date the league-wide slash line was .249/.324/.406. Right now it's .242/.318/.387. So it's not just the time of the year.

It will be interesting to see what the Jays get, if anything for White.

That trade is not looking good. Frasso is the Dodgers #2 prospect (although he is out after labrum surgery). Moises Brito is 6'6" LHP who was very good in the Arizona League last year - still only 20.

The Jays got White and Alex de Jesus. de Jesus is the Jays 23rd best prospect per MLB.com. He was the first star yesterday in the Batter's Box minor league thread.

So there's that.

So I have a purely anecdotal theory about park effects.

I was at a game last year, I think in May, sitting in LF near the new raised bullpen. It was a fairly sunny and nice day. But sitting there I was absolutely freezing my butt off in the shade. It was so bad I had to go to the Jays shop midgame and buy a sweater to wear for the rest of the game. The reason it was so cold was this icy breeze I could feel blowing in from the gates outside.

Anyway, I ain't no scientician but ever since that day I'm convinced that the renovations have done something to the air circulation patterns in there and balls just aren't carrying the way they used to.

I sit behind home plate and the climate is definitely cooler in the dome than in the past. I went to the outfield to see the new "The Catch" bar and I felt a massive air breeze/push toward the OF as well.

I'll say I like Alex De Jesus much more than as our 23rd prospect. I have him as borderline top 10 in the system. that being said, it's a bad system so it's not saying much.


agreed on Kikuchi's body language - there were a couple of misses where he didn't miss by much and you could tell he knew they were great pitches anyways, and came back with even better ones.

I wonder if Verdugo’s double off Romano (with Torres on base) would have been a two-run home run prior to the Rogers Centre renos.

Velo and movement appear to be better so far for Gausman.

KK's should have to earn his way back in the lineup. But if he doesn't, he's a beauty 4th OF.

Big mistake by Stroman to Varsho. And Daulton crushed it. Great to see.

Would have liked to have seen a better approach from Springer and Vladdy there. They both swung at a couple of pitchers pitches in their at bats

Buffalo won their game on a 469-foot grand slam from Orelvis in the 10th inning.

Also. This home plate umpire is being crazy generous to Stroman.

They are going to need at least 4 innings from the pen today it will be interesting to see who gets those innings. Green will get one of them I'm sure but after that ...

you'd think swanson would get one for sure at least.

romano maybe good to go if it's close.

Yankees catcher Austin Wells is setting the target extremely wide of the strike-zone. The home plate umpire Ryan Wills has shifted the zone accordingly.

Maybe also Richards for an inning…?

Swanson and Mayza seem likely candidates but that feels fraught with risk.

not all the way back for Gausman but almost there. very nice outing against a tough lineup without his best stuff/command.

Judging by where they are in the Yankees lineup - maybe Swanson 6th, Mayza 7th, Green 8th, Romano 9th is the theoretical plan. Mike Tyson's note about "plans" always being in play of course.

Agree Uglyone. Great result today considering previous starts. Hopefully Gausman can keep building up. The positive trend is a great sign.

Re the graph you posted, I see 5 egregious calls. I know some are more forgiving of the human element, but stuff like this is way outside an acceptable margin of error for me.

The home plate ump is going to have a very bad ump scorecard.

Ernie Clement has excellent bat to ball skills, but not on high fastballs. He needs to learn to lay off those pitches.

Agreed Gerry and just continuing the theme that the Jays, more often than not, just get crazy aggressive trying to "do damage" in those situations. So far, totally wrong on my prediction for bullpen usage but I do wonder if Mayza isn't LH #2 at the moment (until he starts looking better).

Varsho with 2 home runs today. It goes without saying but if he can be around league average with the bat, then it would be huge for the Jays.

Don’t look now, but Varsho has the third highest OPS on the team, just a bit behind Biggio

Didn't someone on here want Varsho to be sent to the minors last week?

"Didn't someone on here want Varsho to be sent to the minors last week?"

I was hacked.

Varsho is now outhitting Moreno. Best trade ever.

He's not outhitting Gurriel:)

Bichette got a beneficial call in his SF AB, and Cabrera did too in that Judge AB. Things evening out a bit.

Cabrera for 2 innings was pretty bold. Full credit to Schneider for his pen choices this series.

I've never had major problems with Schneider's use of the bullpen - outside of last year's wild card series, that is. Montoyo managed himself into major errors in bullpen usage, and Schneider hasn't done that. I actually think he's getting a little more flexible in his usage, and that's a good thing.

I was thinking (before the home run) that I would prefer Green here. I like Swanson, but he’s a feel pitcher and might need a lower-leverage outing or two to get tuned up.

Oh man, after complimenting his choices:(. Swanson in the 9th? Really?

this would be an unfortunate way to lose the sweep.

Well at least they let Swanson get an out, so he has an ERA. (But also maybe pitchers should be able to finish an inning in AAA before trying to finish a game in the majors.)

Green has to be injured?

Pick your poison: Soto or Judge.

oh man if the ump bails us out here that is high comedy.

I'll reserve judgement until its known who was available but, as I said 4 innings ago, a Swanson/Mayza combo didn't look ideal:( Not exactly hard to see.

Mayza chickened out on the 3-2 pitch to Soto. And then he overly nibbled to Judge after getting ahead of him 1-2. They are both great hitters, but you still have to be aggressive as a pitcher.

that, on the other hand, was not high comedy.

you'd think that while he was scared to bring in Francis to face Judge, he would have been maybe even eager to bring Pearson in to face him.

They were incredibly fortunate that the same thing didn't happen last night.

IT WAS 4-1!!! (Sorry, just getting ready for Toronto playoff hockey season.)

Angel Hernandez thinks this guy is doing a great job!

Aw. That would have been past-a-diving-Jeter.

Schneider getting himself tossed about seven innings too late.

Assuming Green was unavailable I have no problem with the bullpen usage. Just like Romano being shaky yesterday, if Swanson wasn't ready then he wouldn't be on the roster yet.

If Green was unavailable, it sure would have been nice to have Pearson available in this one, either to pitch the entire ninth or at least to face Judge with the bases loaded.

Mayza was rushed on the 3-2 pitch to Soto, he started his delivery very late. Soto’s method of being “alert to the pitcher” by 0:08 seems to slow down the P.

The only excuse for the Jays roster management is if they didn’t know Green was sore when they shipped out Pearson for Romano & Swanson.

It’s hardly a surprise that not getting to Gil in game 1 ended up costing them.

Both Romano and Swanson did not pitch well in Buffalo. Were they ready to be recalled? Sometimes veteran major leaguers push to be recalled, I wonder if the Jays were ready to bring them back or did they force it?

Does Francis have options? Seems like he could be demoted and Pearson recalled once Yariel Rodriguez is stretched out.

Green has shoulder soreness. The team hopes he feels better by Friday.

It will be interesting to see where the Blue Jays look for an offensive upgrade at the trade deadline. Three possibilities are corner outfield, third base and second base. The team could use a big bat in the middle of the lineup, someone who gets on base consistently and hits for power. But it might be hard to upgrade a roster at positions where they already have an average or slightly above-average hitter.

I feel like Luis Arraez is the type of player the Jays FO would put in a lab and try to clone if they could based on their love of contact and low strike outs. Could definitely see that being a deadline pickup in the very likely event that the Marlins are sellers. Though maybe they prefer going internal (Barger, Martinez, Roden).

It seems obvious that Romano and Swanson wanted to be recalled as early as possible.
They needed to be on the IL 15 days, but they could have started to rehab earlier if actually ready.
There are rules against manipulating the IL, so if the player considers himself ready, there's probably not much a team can do, if that player doesn't have options.

Lots of positives in this game. 

Francis has options, but the Jays might still need a long man more than another 1 inning guy.

It's way to early to talk about trade deadline offensive upgrade because right now the 3 weakest position are CF, C and SS.

Arraez is an interesting player. The problem is that he's a poor defender and the Blue Jays already have a DH and first baseman (his former position). I don't see him as a great fit for the Blue Jays at the moment. Same thing for Pete Alonso, another player who may be on the trading block.

Mike Trout is yet another position player whose name will undoubtedly get mentioned a lot. However, he's owed a ton of money (about $35.5m per year) through his age-38 season in 2030, and he's had some recent injury issues. I can't see the Blue Jays taking that on.

I really questioned activating Romano and Swanson at the same time since they both looked rusty in AAA. This likely could have been avoided with Pearson in the pen instead of Swanson.

I didn't feel great about Swanson as the 8th inning guy last year - he wasn't as dominant as he was with Seattle. I'd rather see him work the 7th for now with Green/Garcia in the 8th and Romano/Garcia in the 9th.

Activating Romano and Swanson when they had struggled in Buffalo is just gross incompetence and if they "forced" their way back up, then that's a weak front office.

"Activating Romano and Swanson when they had struggled in Buffalo is just gross incompetence"

Didn't make sense. They don't need to have great performances if they look sharp but both pitchers had struggled. Giving them another couple of games to get things going again made sense especially with bullpen pitching well. What's the rush?

I feel like Luis Arraez is the type of player the Jays FO would put in a lab and try to clone if they could based on their love of contact and low strike outs.

Is it contact and low strikeouts they love, or defence and defensive versatility? Luis Arraez is currently leading the majors with -7 Outs Above Average, 3 worse than the next guy.

I think we saw something similar when the Jays swept (I think) Boston in Fenway last year.
Story had completed his rehab but wanted to keep rehabing for a few days.

Shapiro is very involved in all baseball decisions. Due to this I don't see Atkins making a big splash for a middle of the order bat at a high cost of prospects. Shapiro wouldn't let that happen. At least not for the reason of trying to save Atkins job by making the team stronger this year.

It is possible, on the other hand, that the new stadium renovations are not increasing sales and profits as promised and then Shapiro needs to pivot and make that big trade for a middle of the order bat to save his own job. If this were to happen it would require the mix of ownership pushing for a playoff run and commitment from ownership to resign one of Vlad/Bo and other free agents to help replenish some of the prospect capital lost to acquire the big bat.

I use "prospect" loosely ... it's any young player that another team would want in a trade. So if you can get Mike Trout for Biggio, Barger, Martinez and Tiedemann then I'm counting Biggio as a prospect...just for the sake of this argument.

It's definitely not too early to talk about the trade deadline and I even bet this FO has a list of names to target which played into their plans on the free agency off season this winter. Here are the most interesting:

Ha Seong Kim
Paul Goldschmidt
Alex Bregman

Trout is the only guy I see as available who can dramatically transform this team. True cost is probably forfeiture of ability to resign Vlad or Bo or both long term as well as all prospect capital to acquire him. I view that contract as the only reason he is available and a way to keep the cost lower. Vlad and Bo will both be anchors after next year when they get their new contracts.

Another possibility is that Orelvis (or Barger) emerges as the middle-of-the-order power bat the Blue Jays need. He would be far less expensive than a marquee acquisition and the team would get to preserve their prospect capital for the future.

I predicted 88 wins for the Blue Jays and that still feels about right to me.

All FOs should have some idea of how their team is doing 1 month before the trade deadline. At that time discussions between FOs will start to get serious. Also all FOs will know who are buyers and who are sellers. Generally teams that are out of it will be sellers. CWS & Miami quite likely.

Does anybody think the Angels will be a contender?

I personally think LAA will be a contender. They should be in the mix for their division and 3 WCs. Houston may be panicking.

Asked about requesting a trade:

“It hasn’t even crossed my mind yet,” Trout told Gonzalez."

Some articles posted recently about Mets being a serious contender to acquire him this trade deadline. Acuna, Williams and Vientos for Trout is one package mentioned from a fan site.

Anthony Castrovince suggested Castellanos and Justin Crawford (#3 prospect) for Torut and mark down money.


Then again, Trout's hard hit rate is "down" this year so maybe the decline in "advanced metrics" will scare Shapiro away.

the angels seem committed to giving Rendon 600 PA a year. maybe minasian learned a couple things from aa. i can't see them moving on from trout unless he forces their hands - but i still think a package that frees up that space on the roster and payroll by moving those two is what they need. they're probably going to finish 4th in their division regardless so why not sell high, create financial flexibility, and move from a top-10 pick to a top-5 pick?

Without quibbling over amounts/formulas, Trout and Rendon both have significant, double digit negative value on trade simulators.

I have a very hard time seeing the Angels being a position where they can move Trout for a package that would be acceptable to their fanbase in light of the significant money owed. I’m not saying he can’t be traded. I’m just saying he’s such an injury risk and is owed so much money (basically $40M a year until 2030), I can’t see a package coming their way that their GM wouldn’t get fired for accepting.

Such a trade is definitely well beyond the risk tolerance for Toronto’s front office.

It's a trade that the owner of the Angels not the GM would decide to make.

I think you're right and this Jays front office would never accept the risk of an injury prone player. I still remember Shapiro telling me that Tulowitzki was a major injury concern for him after the 2015 trade (before 2016 started).

Trout is the perfect player, however, to take on. You essentially take on the money (and risk) and get to give up less to get him. He's essentially the player that you're hoping Vlad can become jsut with injury concerns. Guess what, if you sign Vlad it's going to take a long term deal and you're gonna have to deal with the same injury concerns anyway.

you're gonna have to deal with the same injury concerns anyway.

In the sense that both players have two arms and two legs and various other body parts that can break down. Anyone can get injured. But still - one of those guys has appeared in 97% of his team's games since coming to the majors and the other fellow - the older one - has played in 61% of his team's games over the same period.

Maybe Trout will be more durable in his mid 30s than he has been - it's been known to happen (Paul Molitor!) - but it would be a surprise, I think.

Mags,

Trout has been less durable the last 5 years than in his first 5 years, but in any case he has been more valuable and I'd argue the reason he was less durable the last 5 years was due to his first 5 years of dominant performance. He no longer is the base stealer he was and has slowed down in the field.


First 5 years Mike Trout 47.2 WAR (771 games) vs VGJ 15.3 WAR (660 games)

Last 5 years Mike Trout 20.6 WAR (424 games) vs VGJ 15.3 WAR (660 games)

Turns out if you compare Mike's first 5 years to Vlad's he has in fact appeared in more of his teams games. How confident are you that Vlad will still average 1505+ games/year from age 25 to 30? I would say pretty confident, and that's because of his position vs Trout in CF.

"Trout is the perfect player, however, to take on."

Maybe if MLB was a video game, but Trout will be making $37 million this year and for 6 years after this one.

I'm not going to do all the math, but with the CBT the actual cost will be 30% extra this year and 50% extra next year (so $48 million this year and $55.5 M next year) assuming the Jays are over the first tier. Then the surcharge on a chunk of his salary of 12% this year and 42% to 45% in following years.

And the first rounder being moved back 10 spots.

All of this for his age 32 to 38 seasons.

And he has a full no trade clause.

Its not happening.

Who will produce more total WAR from 2025-2030 -- Trout or Orelvis?

The odds of Martinez producing more WAR in absolute terms than one of the greatest players of all time, even in his decline years, are pretty darn small. But $/WAR is a different issue.

This team has Bo and Vlad on expiring deals in 2025. That's next year. To keep Bo they will need to pay him for 10 years and around the same amount as Mike Trout. He's going to be in the same situation as Mike Trout in 5 years when he's declining and making a lot of money. Vlad may make less but he's likely going to get a 10 year deal and 25 million per year or more since he is young, a good (not elite-great) hitter and durable. So he will be in his 30s with an anchor contract as well.

If you don't have a few cornerstones on your team then you're not serious. Even KC ponied up for their franchise player. Mike Trout is an option for a team that may not want to invest in either Bo or Vlad or for a team that may want to invest in the former and not the latter but Bo may not have any interest. Having one of the greatest players in history join your team during a pennant run at market value and for 6 more years is attractive compared to the alternatives.

As for Orelvis Martinez...I don't even consider him to be part of the equation as a middle of the order bat or cornerstone player.

Blue Jays estimated 2026 payroll is $96,000,000.

Blue Jays estimated 2025 payroll is $143,000,000

Blue Jays payroll now is $245,000,000

There's lots of room. Yes, Mike Trout if it's true he has a no trade clause likely does not waive it to come to Toronto.



Cost for 2024 to acquire Trout at the deadline is roughly 12 million.

The club will visit California twice more before the All-Star Break: June 7th and July 9th.  Later, the club visits Mike Trout and the Angels on August 12th.  The travel schedule seems favourable overall.

they are almost certainly going to end up fourth (like they do virtually every year) with or without trout. they've made the playoffs 1 time in the 12 years he's played there. i don't know any angels fans or lurk their corners of the internet, but i'm not sure i understand how reproducing the same losing formula minus ohtani is acceptable.

the blue jays nearly spent 1Billion CAD on a DH over 30 who may never pitch again. so...i'm not sure where your sense of their risk and uncertainty tolerances come from.

Unless I don't understand statistics, the odds are that Trout produces more WAR in 2025 ALONE than Martinez does in his entire career.

Trout carries significant injury risk at this point. It's conceivable that, due to injuries and declining performance, he averages about 2.5 WAR or less per season from 2025 to 2030. Note that he posted less than 3 fWAR in each of 2020, 2021 and 2023. If Orelvis can top that (a big ask, admittedly, but not impossible for a well-regarded prospect who will be 23 next year), he would come out ahead in a head-to-head comparison.

Sometimes stars fade away quickly in their 30s. Look at Nomar Garciaparra, for example. He was posting around 5-7 WAR per year in his 20s. He hit 2 WAR per season once in his 30s and otherwise mostly just fizzled out after age 30.

Greenfrog,

Are we talking about the same Mike Trout??? Your comments would make sense if he was injured right now and sitting out again. He's been one of the best players in the league through 3 weeks, terrorizing opposing pitchers and looks healthy. Not sure how you can reasonable say he would put up 2.5 WAR per year.

Its like when Berrios had a tough year and everybody wrote him off when all numbers suggested it was an outlier season.

The odds of Martinez being a 2.5 WAR/yr player (on average) are incredibly low. How many current position players on this roster would you be comfortable in penciling that amount of production in in any given year. I count 1 - Bichette; that's it.

Trout has a rare spinal condition:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/angels-star-mike-trout-dealing-with-rare-back-condition/

He seems to be doing a good job of managing it for now. Not sure if he'll be able to do that through his age-38 season, though.

To be clear, I'm not betting that Orelvis will be better than Trout from 2025-30. I'm saying he has a chance to be better, because he's young and promising and Trout is entering his decline years with an injury history.

Because superstars are so darn impressive in their prime (and sometimes beyond their prime), we forget that that won't always be the case. You want another example? Albert Pujols was an absolute stud in his 20s and early 30s, regularly posting WAR seasons in the 7-9 range. From ages 33 to 42, he exceeded 2 WAR once.

I’m with green frog when it comes to the injury risk related to trout. But don’t get me wrong if the Jays could get them and exchange for just taking on his contract, I would do that in a heartbeat. The upside he would provide to this offence would be outrageous. We can worry about the out in the out years.

Soupman, I think it’s almost a guarantee that Ohtani will pitch again. Will necessarily be the same dominance starter? I’m not sure, but I do think 💭 ts likely. I think he’ll at least start for a couple moreseasons. A reminder that the doctor who performed his surgery is also the Dodgers’ team physician. Furthermore, I think the economic opportunity provided by Ohtani makes it a completely different conversation. His presence, by itself, would make money for Rogers, orders of magnitude more than any other player would. Not to mention the fact that he’s probably the best hitter on the planet.

Apologize for the voice to text mistakes.

*if the Jays could get him in exchange *

Greenfrog,

I guess if you look at Mike Trout through the limited lens of WAR you can argue that a minor league player with some projected pop and strikeouts like Martinez could "outperform" him. Yet, Martinez does not grade well defensively which WAR treasures.

Pujols again is a terrible example. He was an offensive player. To view him through the lens of WAR is a limited perspective.

Would it be accurate to say that Orelvis Martinez is more valuable than Josh Hader because he will likely accumulate more WAR than him each season? If you believe in WAR, sure...but I'm willing to bet every team will take Josh Hader and his career 2 WAR average over Orelvis Martinez.

"Pujols again is a terrible example. He was an offensive player"

Incorrect. Pujols is a good example because he was a superb two-way player. This is from The Athletic a few years ago ("Albert Pujols, The Great Defender"):

I asked a scout to describe how good first baseman two-time Gold Glove (and four-time Sports Info Solutions Fielding Bible Award winner) Albert Pujols was defensively in the prime of his career. The words he chose:

Intelligent. Instinctive. Soft hands. Surprising range. Mistake-free.

As Pujols approaches 3,000 hits, we remember the prime of his career fondly, when he was a great hitter. But he was also a great fielder, and today we’re here to pay tribute to that. Let’s convert the words from that scout into numbers.

In the five-year period from 2005 to 2009, Pujols saved 96 runs at first base per our defensive metrics. The next most by any player at first base in that span was 44 by Mark Teixeira.

Pujols’ 96 included 31 Defensive Runs Saved in 2007, the highest total for a first baseman since the stat was first recorded in 2003. The next-most by any first baseman is 21 by Teixeira in 2008. Last year’s leaders were Brandon Belt and Joey Votto with 11 apiece.

Okay, that's good. I learned something new today. I don't think First Baseman are good examples of players who can easily tally higher WAR totals but those stats you pasted for Pujols are indeed impressive. I guess my memory of Albert was tainted by his time in California...

So, who had, at this point, the AL West with just 1 team at or above 500 and the Astros in last place? The Pirates, Cubs, Royals (and others) ahead of the Dodgers?

Obvious things are the A's last in attendance at 6,244 per game - quite a bit less than the Expos in their final season at 9,369 per game. By this point Montreal had only played in PR, but would go sub 6k for 4 of 6 games in their 2nd home series but even in that series averaged 6,617 per game (home opener was earlier so that didn't boost these figures). Even with a stadium that literally was falling apart they still never had more than 3 games in a row sub 6k. The A's worst so far is 3,296, 3 games sub 4k. The Expos worst was 3,609, 5 games sub 4k total all year - I suspect the A's will equal that their next homestand, heck their next 2 home games (Mon/Tues vs Pittsburgh to finish off April). 2025-27 in Sacramento should be interesting. Btw, the Arizona Coyotes officially sold every ticket at their minor league stadium this year (4,600 seats). They won't get 'crowds' like the Jays had in Dunedin though (max of 1,634) in 2021 but even with COVID restrictions in Buffalo and Toronto the Jays never were sub 5.3k for a home game outside of Dunedin (21 games). Sorry, having trouble sleeping thus get going on weird stuff.

Poor Miami.  Cubs lead the Marlins 8 - 1 into the 9th.

The Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago White Sox are interesting teams from a betting perspective. The Oakland Athletics, too.

Yeah... I tried betting against the Rockies once. They beat Zac Gallen and the D-Backs.