Tom Lawless broke up the no-hitter, Bob Brenly, and not-so-Junior added hits & George Bell drove in the winner. 3-2 Jays.
Jays went on the road for the weekend, got swept. Jimy fired, Cito was in, & my next game was Cito’s first win.
You're probably thinking - "it was 34 years ago. He can't possibly remember all those details, he had to look it up."
I looked it up, and - hang on! Key did not give up two in the first. Seattle scored once in the fifth, once in the sixth. Your memory plays you false!
But just a little. Everything else was exactly right. Felix reaching on the Vizquel error, Lawless breaking up the no-hitter, the RBI hits by Brenly and Felix, the game-winner from George.
I can barely remember where I put my socks...
Your memory plays you false! But just a little.
I like to think I waver between brilliance and total brain fog. It’s kept me going for many years. Of course, that’s the brain fog speaking.
Tend to agree with dalimon, there must be a bigger fish out there. Mind you, as John N. has illustrated, the marketplace is slim pickings.
Thinking outside the box, Toronto could flex some muscle and throw around $50 M cash-in-lieu of players / prospects in a trade.
Alek Manoah used in center of trade package for Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh.
Matt Chapman returns on 1 year deal to Blue Jays because JD Martinez won't come here and Matt Chapman can't get more than the 120 million/6 contract the Jays originally offered him.
Not a fan of the idea of trying to get Bryan Reynolds - signed for 2024-2030, option 2031. $97.8 million guaranteed. He has 3 seasons of 120+ OPS+ (rookie in 2019, 2021, 2022) and a decent 2023 (117 OPS+) but if he is mainly going to be a DH/LF then his value drops (defensive stats make me think Grichuk - can play CF but not well). Now, $100 mil doesn't go as far as it used to but risking that on a guy for age 29-35 who is close to 'meh' and would be 'meh' as a DH seems a bad idea imo. Now, sneak Ke'Bryan Hayes out of there (3B with a GG signed through 2029 for $44 mil then option for 2030, 100 OPS+ lifetime) I'd go for it but I doubt Pittsburgh would trade him at a decent price (IMO they'd be nuts to).
The rumours have reached Shakespearean levels. It's like being back in high school. Such drama.
I don't know what would be an equivalent package, but I'm pretty sure we could have matched it.
Plus taking on another $10 million for Polanco likely would restrict their ability to sign a DH type.
I feel horrible for Bo Bichette for having been stuck with this goddamn boat anchor of a franchise around his neck.
Turner has reportedly signed with the Jays on a 1 year deal
I sincerely don't get the toxicity that this fanbase continuously engenders. To a certain subset of people, everything bad that happened to our players is real and permanent, and anything good an illusion that'll burn off like fog on a cool Spring Training morning. Opponents have all improved, with their overperformances a new permanent state, and all their acquisitions are the fruit of opposition management's genius. Our management is obviously incompetent, or worse, actively trying to sabotage, and all evidence to the contrary are exceptions, red herrings that distract everyone from the terrible truth.
I don't get it because the whole point of this endeavour is to entertain us. To paraphrase the great Sam Miller, we follow this sport to distract ourselves as we slowly die in front of each other; we like watching baseball because we're all on the slog to rigor mortis.
Toxic negativity isn't entertaining to me, and I'd bet it's not entertaining to the toxically negative, either, but it's somehow inescapable. I wish someone could give me an explanation that's not "social media has ruined discourse."
The club needed to improve offense and:
Turner/IKF is not better than Chapman/Belt
I agree Guerrero and Kirk are what they are. I don't see a "rebound" for them so much as them just being who they are. The two players I think who will improve the most are Springer (last year was a real down year for him after concussion and becoming a father). Also Varsho...he should be better at the plate and I believe he will improve and bring more power and contact.
Justin Turner...I never expected him to sign with the Jays but he has very competitive at bats which is something that this team lacked other than Bo Bichete. You can look at the stats overall and say Belt is better but man oh man did he ever swing through some highly located mid 90s fastballs that he wasn't even close on. Justin Turner will keep a pitcher honest and keep fouling those pitches off that Belt and Chapman couldn't seem to do. Thumbs up for me if he is the primary DH and 3B.
It's official, Jays and Matt Chapman moving on from one another. So Turner becomes the guy who will clog up the DH spot but can occasionally take time in the INF at 3B.
The Jays now need someone who can play OF and can spell Varsho or KK in the line up against a LHP. This must mean that the Jays are now going to sign an OF like Michael Taylor which would be good or someone like Soler or Pham which would be... meh since the DH slot will now be clogged up.
When and if that happens they will have Schneider, Espinal, Biggio, IKF, Clement all available for 2B, 3B...
Overall ... Jays must be okay with Barger or Orelvis Martinez joining the team later in the season so Turner and IKF are perfect combo of players to help cover 3B/DH until then.
Turner/IKF is not better than Chapman/Belt"
I bet you it is better in 2024 if you compare the 4 players by seasons end, and that's before you factor in the big bump in pay the Chapman's looking for.
BTW, for the umpteenth time...an infielder at Rogers center does not need to play on turf unless chasing down a foul ball in the OF and with the new renovations there will be less foul territory than before.
THE INFIELD AT ROGERS CENTER IS A REAL INFIELD LIKE THE REST OF INFIELDS IN MLB (except TB). It is not soil on concrete, it is about 8 feet of sand, clay and soil which is topped up every game.
Artificial turf only applies to OFs...
https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/toronto-rogers-centre-renovations-m-s-toronto-blue-jays-populous.23794/page-15
Current Jays like Vlad & Kirk may improve from 2023 but I can't predict that because I simply cannot understand the math but I suspect that it is probability based. Also I cannot figure out how Arizona, Miami and SD performed as they did. I do enjoy reading about the opinions of the Bauxites but unfortunately can't remember them. Have we estimated our win total to be 82-91 in 2024? I personally feel that 86 wins or lower will be a huge disaster.
Now go get Votto and an OF and trade Espinal for a reliever and you're good to go. A Biggio-IKF-Kirk-OF bench is strong.
Right now, this team should win 88 games. One more addition could push that to 90 wins.
Hopefully his approach rubs off on the some of the others.
I would argue that Brandon Belt often had competitive at bats although he had a tendency to go after and miss high fastballs. That said, I don't see the Jays signing another DH baseclogger type like Belt or Votto.
I like the addition of Turner but I think he'll occasionally alternate with Vlad and won't see third base very often. Like dalimon, I think the club will sign another outfielder in case of injury to Springer or KK. There seems to be one too many infielders and looking at them, IKF is newly signed, Biggio can play the outfield if needed, Schneider is young and cheap, so that leaves Espinal as a trade candidate.
Still need to sign or replace Chapman to be comparable to last year's team tho.
Turner collected a $6.7 M buyout from Boston.
“There’s no real remedy for a bone bruise,” Turner said. “You ask a medical person, they’ll tell you 4-6 weeks avoiding impact. Obviously, I don’t have that luxury.”
Unlike the past two offseasons where, regardless if you agreed or disagreed with the execution, the offseason strategic plan was clear, I have no idea what this offseason has been about. That isn't a comment about any particular offseason move, it all just seems extremely scattershot.
I like all of KK, Turner and IKF in a vacuum but I can't see the master plan.
There are pros and cons to this approach, as we've seen in recent years.
I think you're generally right but don't think they care about Chapman's pick after the 4th round. Honestly, I think they should remain flexible as if things go downhill well this year, they probably need to retool quickly and trade assets. (and fire GM). Jays don't have a lot of negative assets at the moment that would weight them down long-term. Springer I guess but that's really it.
Their master plan was to ride the 2015 team. That team was good in 2016 but after that the results were bad for 2017 & 2018 with 76 and 73 wins. They decided on a very fast rebuild to get good revenue again. The rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline and continued until the end of the 2019 season. For 2019 they paid a lot of salary for Tulo, Martin and K Morales who played for other teams.
The 2020 team made the playoffs and IMO the team got better the next 3 seasons. All this due to a very high payroll or increasing payroll. We will know by the end of 2024 and 2025 what the FO thought about the luxury tax implications.
Compare the slow rebuilds of Baltimore and Detroit. They lost for many years and got the high draft picks as compensation. So 2 types of rebuilding.
A LH bat for DH to mix with him would be ideal, and one rumor site online said the Jays are about to sign Votto for that (of course, they also said Ohtani was coming here so take it with lots of salt).
So now the lineup is C: Kirk/Jansen, 1B: Vlad, 2B: Schneider, 3B: Biggio/Turner, SS: Bo, LF: Varsho, CF: KK, RF: Springer, DH: Turner/whoever needs a DH day, UT: IKF, Espinal, one open slot
Open slot could go to a bat (Horwitz) or to another backup guy (Clement) right now. 4th OF would be a mix of Schneider (Varsho/KK days off), and Biggio (Springer day off).
This is an odd thing to say about Kirk, because I'm not sure anyone knows who he is at this point. He came up as a bat-first player who might not be able to stick at catcher; then this year he stopped hitting, but started looking really good behind the plate.
If he can find his power stroke again, he's going to look like an all-star. Then again, he might not. Oh, and he just turned 25 after the season ended. (Vlad won't turn 25 until March!)
He's 39. Priority should be to keep him healthy.
He's due for a large decline, but maybe he was still a good bat last year.
He should be particularly good against lefties.
So, now they only need one guy to play LF against lefties when KK starts.
That could be anybody, including Schneider.
It's a bit more complicated if they need somebody to play LF when KK is injured.
I see Biggio playing 3B rather than Turner.
unfortunately i don't see a team with any glaring "needs" that need to be addressed - issue is more that they don't have any great strengths.
I don't like the offseason as of yet, but IMO Belt obviously needed replacing, so signing Turner is a solid move.
Falefa works for me as a Whit replacement too.
To come out looking as good as they did going into last year, though, they definitely need to either sign or replace Chapman. They haven't done that yet. This could be a 3B or a corner OF, but they need to sign a similar caliber player.
If they can do that then imo they've had a decent offseason - they wouldn't be legitimately improved over last year but at least they'd be at a similar level. And if you think last year had more under than over achievement then there;d be resaon to believe they could be better this year than last.
If they can sign or replace Chapman i'll be ok with the offseason, but also still definitely expecting a midseason addition by the deadline.
Agreed that it would be ideal to add one more strong player at 3B or LF, though.
Blue Door
Blue Jays sign Soler or Martinez for 2 years
Red Door
Blue Jays acquire power bat at the deadline
*trick question
Belt's 2023 339 ABs were better than his previous seasons. But Turner 558 ABs bears that and previous years 468 and 553 ABs. Hope he can do 550 ABs for the Jays.
I'd take elite defense with Bassitt too. He's kind of an all or nothing guy who can't make adjustment on the fly with the pitch clock. With Gausman, the defense matters less.
I don't know who Manoah is right now and Berrios can have good and bad days.
This should be the year for Barger and Martinez to make their debut.
It's not like Manoah has tons of pitches to think about.
Just let the catcher call the game and you got more time.
ZiPS (projected wRC+ in brackets) had Belt as the best FA DH left (122), then Austin Meadows (118), Matt Chapman (117), Justin Turner (115), Joc Pederson (114), Jorge Soler (114), Keston Hiura (110), Daniel Vogelbach (108), J.D. Martinez (106), Jesse Winker (106), Cody Bellinger (106), Adam Duvall (104), Ji Man Choi (104), ... Gio Urshela (101), Josh Donaldson (101), ... Yuli Gurriel (97), Robbie Grossman (95), Tommy Pham (95), Jurickson Profar (94), ... Joey Votto (91). Many, many more of course, but that covers key names including many people have mentioned here the past few weeks and a couple that grabbed my eye as I scanned through. ... indicates many names between them. For realistic DH options Turner was pretty much the best available. Meadows is the sad case of anxiety issues keeping him from playing - I'd see if he'd be willing to be a 4th OF/DH here as a way to minimize the issues (less pressure might help) even though he is LH (works well for DH, not as easy mix/match for OF). Of course, there is massive variation in real life vs projections but I see ZiPS as one of the better methods and feel it is far better than using 2023 stats, lifetime stats, or just my wild guesses.
Btw, current Jays lineup with ZIPS wRC+
- RF: Springer 111
- SS: Bo 121
- 1B: Vlad 133
- DH: Turner 115
- LF: Varsho 107
- C: Kirk 110 / Jansen 119
- 2B: Schneider 112
- 3B: Biggio 98 / IKF 78
- CF: KK 89
Backups: Espinal 93, Clement 93, Horwitz 105, Lukes 95
Prospects: Roden 98, Barger 96, Lantigua 92, O Martinez 92, Jimenez 88, Palmegiani 87, Otto Lopez 79, Cam Eden 66
Obviously they list more players than that, but those are names I figure we'll hear about during 2024.
Rangers might be interested in Espinal as Corey Seager underwent sports hernia surgery today. Espinal could be a fill in for a few months if needed. Doubt the Jays will get lucky with the Rangers panicking, but one can hope.
Baltimore officially sold it seems. To private equity firms (which often tear things down for quick profit, then walk away with it destroyed). Cal Ripken is involved so I doubt they'll toast the team totally, but this sale could go the wrong way for O's fans.
My impression of this offseason so far - the Jays were swinging for the fences (Ohtani, Yamamoto, and to a lesser degree Lee) but couldn't get a deal done (both preferred the Dodgers). The market was weak after that. By projected fWAR just 2 guys were over 4 (Ohtani, Nola) and 5 more in the 3's (Lee, Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, Gray). At that point you are just filling in holes which the Jays did with KK, IKF, and Turner plus a longer term shot via Yariel Rodriguez. 3B is still a mess, but internal options might fill it (if one of the kids comes through - Barger, Martinez, Jimenez, Palmegiani, etc.) or a Biggio/IKF mix might do the job with Turner mixed in here and there.
To make the offseason as good as possible a solid 3B is needed. The only one really available though is Chapman and no way the Jays want to give him 5+ years. If he gets desperate he might sign for a 1 year 'punt' contract. Basically, pay him $25-$30 mil for a year, he goes back to free agency without a QO, and he is happy, Jays get one more year to evaluate their kids (they can come up for 2B/backup OF/3B/SS this year) and make a plan for next offseason. Win-win possibly.
Now, the Jays could make a big splash and sign Snell or Montgomery still but I really doubt that'll happen (would require trading pitcher(s) - Kikuchi and/or Manoah) but it could.
He started 35 games at 1B, 4 at 2B and 7 at 3B.
He also replaced the starting first baseman and the starting second baseman 6 times each.
I see him as the primary DH, playing first when Vladdy DHes and potentially having some starts at second or third when Springer DHes. On an off day, he can come off the bench to face a reliever.
That would had an extra 12% to the current 20% penalty.
If Turner hit all year round he sorta replaces both Belt and Chapman as one was struggling when the other was hitting.
Boras is just saying no, hoping the price will go up.
I am happy with IKF and Biggio at 3B to start the year, with one of Palmegiani, Barger or Orelvis getting at bats by midseason.
If I remember correctly Bauxites were intensely working out the possible outcomes. I don't see the Jays having something locked up before the last 2 weeks but instead in the exact same position as last year. Which would be a revenue success. Also we could have unsure players succeed like Manoah & Varsho with O. Also some success from prospects like, Tiedemann, Olelvis etc...
I agree with Ugly and that makes it harder. It is much easier to replace a dead position or two than to try to improve a bunch of OK positions. Every position except C and SS are projected somewhere around 2-3 WAR. No position is projected more than 4.1 WAR. In order to improve, Jays would need to get a 3-4 win player somewhere and that isn't easy or cheap. Bellinger is best remaining free agent and ZIPS has him at 2.8 WAR.
The Jays already offered him 6/120 during the season which he declined. I'd imaging the offer hasn't gone down from that.
Bringing Chapman back now would be a win for this team if on a 3 year or less term. Signing Snell would be the ideal move.
I guess we will have to wait until 2025 and start hoping for Soto to get a LHH here that matters since...Carlos Delgado? Frank Catallanotto? Surely not Adam Lind or Lyle Overbay.
- Spots 1-4 Delgado (2000-2003) 143-179 wRC+
- #5 is Adam Lind 2009 at 140
- #6 Brandon Belt 2023 at 138
- 130+ also are Matt Stairs 2007, Adam Lind 2013, Colby Rasmus 2013
- 120's are Carlos Delgado 2004, Lyle Overbay 2006, and Eric Hinske 2002
Older you get...
- John Olerud 1993 at 179
- 150's Fred McGriff 1988-1989-1990 (156 or 157 each year - dang talk about consistent)
- 140's Delgado 1998, Shawn Green 1999
- 130's Upshaw 1983, Moseby 1983, Delgado 1999
- 120's Roy Howell 1977, Mulliniks 1985 & 1983, Olerud 1990/1992/1994, Al Woods 1980, Moseby 1984, Delgado 1997, Mayberry 1979
Btw, for switch hitter the only one with a 140+ was Roberto Alomar 1993. 130's Roberto Alomar 1992, Justin Smoak 2017, 120s: Melky Cabrera 2014, Tony Fernandez 1998 & 1999, Dave Collins 1984, Justin Smoak 2018
RH hitters peaked with José Bautista's 180 in 2011, then Vlad's 2021 166, Bautista has 2 more in the 160's (2010 & 2014). Josh Donaldson is the 150's (2015, 2016, 2017) with Edwin Encarnación (2012, 2014, 2015). Lots in the 140's (8), 130's (13), and 120's (18).
This should help put Vlad's big 2021 in some context from a Jays POV. That year was equal to Delgado, McGriff, Bautista, and Olerud's great years. A 130 or better is a great year (Vlad 2022) with Vlad's 118 last year nothing to be ashamed of. Yeah, he is no Fred McGriff for consistency. But only Bautista has had 2+ seasons of 160+ wRC+ here (3), 150+ for Delgado (2), McGriff (3), Donaldson (3), and Encarnación (3). Boy were we spoiled in that 15/16 timeframe with 3 of the best hitters ever here at RF/DH/3B.
Yeah, I'd love to have another LH hitter with a 150+ wRC+ again. But realistically that is not common and very hard to get. The Jays put a TON of effort trying to get one this past winter but the Dodgers got Ohtani and Yankees Soto. These types are not available often and afaik the Jays made real efforts to get them. As fans that is all we can hope for.
I would hope Chapman's offer went down after he hit worse than IKF over the final 5 months of the season.
You should hear the hockey fans talk!
M. Policier du language venez ici, svp. Je presente le batarde, Autocorrect.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/matt-chapman-turned-down-prior-extension-offer-from-blue-jays.html
Scott Mitchel was on a podcast last week where he specified the exact amount.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DUCQxMtkwU
As Bichette said, this is not a young team anymore.
OF: Varsho-KK-Springer starting, Backups:Biggio-IKF-Schneider, AAA:Eden-Lukes-Berroa Prospects:Roden-Brown-Barger
IF: Bo-IKF-Espinal-Clement at SS, IKF-Biggio-Schneider-Espinal-Clement-Lopez for 2B/3B/backup at ML level plus Turner at 3B, AAA: Palmegiani-Martinez-Barger-Jimenez, etc.
1B: Vlad-Biggio-Turner-etc.
DH: whoever, Turner-Vlad-Springer-Kirk-Jansen you name it
So an injury pretty much anywhere can be covered for 2 weeks but a major injury you can never really prepare for - you can only hope a prospect comes up and nails it ala Schneider last year in August.
To be fair, Mulliniks did the wRC+ in 350+ AB a few more times. A strict platoon LH bat wouldn't be a bad thing.
1984 379 PA 125 wRC+
1987 372. 129
1988 399. 143
To go with 83 (126) & 85 (128)
Agree with this. Yes, if Bichette gets hurt, the Jays are in trouble but every team has that issue. Jays have a ridiculous number of guys in the minors that profile according to ZIPS as passable major leaguers right now. Barger, Clement, Horwitz, Lukes, Lantigua, Palmegiani, Jimenez, Orelvis, Roden, and probably more. Issue is the lack of elite players. in 2022, 2023 combined, the # 1 Jays war is Bichette who is #30 in baseball. That's 1 top-50 position player and not an elite one at that.
For the top 100 you get 29 on 2 teams, 6 on 3 teams, 5 each for San Diego and Houston, 4 each for Atlanta, Dodgers, Rays, and 3 each for ChiSox, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Seattle, St Louis. Jays are 1 of 10 teams with 2 guys, 2 guys were with 4 teams, then 3 with 1 each (Rangers, Royals, Brewers). 6 teams didn't have anyone (Colorado, Detroit, Miami, Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati).
For pitchers the Jays have 2 in the top 100 - Manoah (#79), and Ryu (#98) but the multi-team guys have a few who played here during that stretch in Gausman (#3, #1 among multi-team guys), Bassitt (#28), Berrios (#35), Walker (#53), Ray #91, Matz (#100). So current Jays are #3 Gausman, #28 Bassitt, #35 Berrios, #79 Manoah. Kikuchi is #118, Romano #112 (yeah, I was curious so I had to check).
So, not bad really. Factor in guys who come and go and the Jays have had a lot of premium talent in the past 4 years. They don't always hold onto it, but we've enjoyed them while they were here. We certainly have a few premium guys right now here. Yeah, Ohtani or Soto would've been WOW, but that's life.
I hope the Jays get into trades. For the future rather than 2024.
It absolutely is subjective. Bichette is only Jay's hitter that I think you can make argument for. Gausman leads baseball in FWAR over last two years so no question. What is not subjective is that the Jays lack elite talent. In 2020, Jays had 4 position players with 4+ WAR. Last year, they had 0.
https://twitter.com/Alexkachler10/status/1748057736594538522
@Alexkachler10
Excited to be joining the Toronto Blue Jays organization as a Pitching Coach out of their Player Development Complex in Florida.
Thankful for the relationships, memories, and friendships developed at Tread Athletics over the past 2 years.
Thrilled for this opportunity!
I think I overthought the IKF signing and he is merely a back up and insurance coverage for the infield. He mentioned in his intro interview he was signed as a back up and potentially more. Same thing with Kevin Keirmaier. I am looking at the possibility of signing Matt Chapman as more likely than ever now.
Matt Chapman returns to play 3B, Justin Turner is DH and IKF is the super utility infielder and late defensive replacement.
I would be happy to see the team add Chapman or Bellinger on a short-term contract, though.
It doesn't seem that helps us to figure out where the spending limit is otherwise.
My guess is that they know Boras is shopping Chapman elsewhere hoping some owner's ego gets involved. The Jays are probably rather ambivalent as to whether Chapman comes back, but if he does it wont be a long term contract.
In the AL East the others have (fWAR projection range in brackets) O's: Gunnar Henderson (4.1-5.2), Rays Isaac Paredes (2.3-3.6), Red Sox Rafael Devers (3.9 to 4.7), Yankees DJ LeMahieu (1.2-2.7). Jays are listed with Cavan Biggio (0.7-1.1). Yuck. IKF's range is 0.3-0.9. So yeah, the Jays are way behind the division at 3B right now. Chapman's range is 2.4-4.0 btw. So based on projections the Jays gain 1-3 wins if they sign Chapman - that's worth up to $30 mil roughly based on a $10 mil per win estimate and could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making it. I can't find anyone who is available realistically to the Jays (Jose Ramirez is unrealistic btw), so the only other option is a kid makes it and out performs year 1.
Is the FO making the same mistake twice?
Per MLB trade rumors the Jays are currently at $251M and past the first CBT level.
The second tier is $257M. The third tier (which I can't see the Jays crossing due to the cost and impact on their first pick) is $277M.
So Chapman at say $22M a year would put them very close the third tier and really limit their flexibility going forward.
FanGraphs has a nice page summarizing payroll for each team. Jays are getting high, no doubt. While Chapman would be a good idea in the absence of a luxury tax, with one he might not be. The $277 mark is where your draft pick gets moved down 10 slots. So not a loss of a pick, just a shift of one. I don't see the tax itself ($$$) stopping the Jays, and even that 10 slot shift shouldn't be a killer. They might just be a lot pickier on raw dollars. We might also see them try to trade some dollars away - Garcia and Espinal being the most obvious choices at $6 mil and $2.75 mil but also having value to another team potentially. This is the point where IKF, KK, and Turner - all probably worth their contracts, but cause problems with the Luxury Tax. The middle of the road players like them are the ones who will be hit by this in the next few years as teams hit the tax hard. When it was a Yankee tax no issues, but now many teams are hitting it so expect the next CBA to be a lot tougher and a lockout likely.
That's a hefty price but you have your "Ace" ace.
Ortiz (50/medium): "While he didn’t get much of an opportunity on the Orioles in 2023, Ortiz still has an everyday major league ceiling, though on a championship-caliber team he may be more of a utility player. He’ll be competing for a regular role in Baltimore in spring training."
Hall (50/medium): "In a brief sample down the stretch in 2023, Hall showed he can be a potentially elite reliever, but the Orioles still believe his electric four-pitch mix from the left side is that of a starter. He’ll be in the majors in 2024 as long as he’s healthy, though the team’s offseason moves might determine his role."
Hall is #93 on the list. Ortiz did not make the list.
So, Tiedemann + Orelvis isn't really comparable to what the O's gave up.
Ortiz and Hall were not major parts of their future.
Baltimore is also in position to make more trades (now or at the deadline) if they want to.
Joey Ortiz was on top 100 lists before being overtaken by the super prospects now ahead of him in the system.
but could they give Chapman a backloaded contract, or one with some deferred money, to avoid that problem?Deferrals would help (look at Ohtani's CBT impact of ~$46 million/year, based on net present value calculations), but backloaded contracts don't change it: for exactly this sort of loophole-reason, CBT impact is calculated as the straight average annual salary in the contract.
The AL competition is still the same IMO. Baltimore was and still is a strong contender.
Your response was pretty offensive. My toxic negativity is the result of a deep emotional investment, and your facetious description of my fandom feels like an attempt to trivialize or discredit how I am feeling. I understand if you're speaking on behalf of the cabal or whatever you guys call yourselves these days and say please keep this stuff to yourself; that's fine. I'll do that starting right after this post.
How dare you try to tell me how to be a fan, though? What do you think gives you the moral authority to tell me that I'm doing it wrong?
I don't get it because the whole point of this endeavour is to entertain us. To paraphrase the great Sam Miller, we follow this sport to distract ourselves as we slowly die in front of each other; we like watching baseball because we're all on the slog to rigor mortis.
Yeah, and I'd like to be entertained by a championship season at some point before my rigor mortis sets in. It's closer for some of us than others. This organization frustrates the hell out of me; I doubt that's a secret to anyone, and I've actually tried harder to be positive here this season, admittedly with very little success.
Magpie, we don't all live in Toronto, and we don't all root for the Leafs. I thought you were from Winnipeg; you should be better than that. For shame.
That's it for me. See you guys on the other side, I guess. Sorry for the toxic negativity.
"...just cause you don't like it, don't mean it ain't no good!"
Suicidal.
Yeesh.
The team now has a clear hole (3B) and a star at SS, a possible star at 1B, insane defense in CF/LF, a guy who can be a star in RF, a rotation that is envious for others with a real ace, and a solid closer - 89% of saves converted lifetime is Rivera's lifetime figure. We have a kid at 2B who was otherworldly in August last year, a couple of kids with wow potential very close too. There is LOTS to be optimistic about. 3 out of the last 4 years making the playoffs is a great thing, only done in 1989-1993 before in Jays history (4 of 5). I encourage being optimistic - there is always bad stuff to look at in the world (just look at our premier for an example) so I choose to enjoy whatever we get from our sports. Hey, I grew up with the Toronto Maple Laughs where 2nd worst in the league often made the playoffs, dreaming that Wendall Clark would lead them to the promised land.
IKF is not a hole. When playing SS/3B he's been a 2-3 WAR player.
I wonder if he becomes the emergency catcher ahead of Varsho.
He started 35 behind the plate in 2018 and 31 in 2019.
By the way, it's not January anymore.
Encarnacion turned down 4/80 and made less than that in 4 years in Cleveland, Detroit and NY.
Donaldson made 5/105M + 8M in the opt out.
The Jays were paying him 23M in 2018. I don't think they would have offered him less than that.
I'm sure he wanted 200M, but in the end the Jays offer must have been competitive and probably better than what he ended up with.
Bautista was coming off a bad year and they basically just honored the QO he refused.
Looking at that, they probably made a decent offer to Chapman but having moved on, I don't see them offering him more than a pillow contract around the QO value and only if it's looking like nobody else will match that.
I would like Atkins to trade for the future now or at the deadline. Y Garcia, C Green and Mayza are great trading chips if someone breaks through out of the farm before the trade deadline. Relievers are valuable at the deadline. Next off season we could have a surplus of relievers.
It would be surprising if Baltimore resign Burnes next year. They'll just get the QO and recover the draft pick they lost.
It's unclear what the Yankees will do after this year, but Soto isn't the ideal move for them. It forces them to move the often injured Judge to CF so Soto, who is a terrible defender, can man RF.
There are just waiting for Stanton to go to the IL so Soto can DH.
What the Jays should be doing, at this point on the win curve, is to sign a middle of the order left bat. Alas.
Signing Gausman was a great move.
Burnes is coming off a down year and moving to a new org with a new catcher into a different league in a tougher division which will put some pressure on him to perform since it's his contract year.
I understand if you're speaking on behalf of the cabal or whatever you guys call yourselves these days and say please keep this stuff to yourself; that's fine. I'll do that starting right after this post.Up front, I gotta make sure this is 100% clear: I speak for me and me alone.
Your response was pretty offensive. My toxic negativity is the result of a deep emotional investment, and your facetious description of my fandom feels like an attempt to trivialize or discredit how I am feeling.I'm genuinely sorry, Parker — I don't mean to make light of what you're feeling, and I didn't intend to be offensive (but obviously missed the mark).
Your response is actually an answer to my question, in short: "Where is this coming from?"
Upon a bit of self-reflection, I think that what I'm feeling is actually a version of what you're feeling, only directed differently. I've placed emotional investment in finding an informed community to talk baseball in a friendly, constructive way, and when confronted with a fanbase (not just Batter's Box) that went so negative just as the team also started feeling like it was stagnating, it was like two sources of joy in my life (baseball, and talking about baseball) turned into pits of (at best) beige pablum, and at worst dark, red fury. That change had an effect on me, of course, and it's come out in various places, most recently right here.
I'm not asking you to shut up, or to be unflinchingly positive, or even to be constructive. There's a lot of ways to be a fan. I just need to work on accepting that myself.
Easy, big fella.
And I promise, the frustration and bitterness of the hockey fans in Toronto... well, it makes everyone here, even you, seem positively mellow, cheerfully resigned to never seeing a championship baseball team.
1) Complete games Stieb, Hentgen and Halladay.
2) Jesse Barfield throws (this could happen at present).
3) The red smartie commercials during the 92/93 WS championship playoffs. (may make a comeback).
I found the 1980 seasons quite nerve racking just like recent seasons. I had hope for championships then and I have hope for championships now.
Please try to enjoy these times - the Jays could go 10-20 years after this with nothing but sub 500 years ala Baltimore 1998-2011 (after 2 playoff runs), or Pittsburgh 1993-2012 (all sub 500 sandwiched between 2 sets of 3 playoffs in a row, now on an 8 year futility run with the highlight being an 82 win season). There are many other examples, but yeah, things could be a LOT worse. They could be better, but I'm good with being annoyed at our one weak position which has a few kids nearly ready to take over vs having 5 or 6 positions with no one ready to take over. For fun here is the 2015 preview where I was an optimist with a 90 win prediction. Others were around the 82-85 mark. Lots of excitement about Dalton Pompey as he and Pillar took over CF/LF to start the season. No idea who the closer would be (was a battle of 2 20 year olds). So yeah, a lot weaker Jay teams at the start have won.
They are just as likely to sign Burnes next year as the Orioles.
Those fans really shouldn't be upset with this shapkins decade at all, imo.
Word. As I've said, I was mystified at all the angst and fury last year's team inspired. I saw the franchise go twenty freaking years without winning as many games, and I had an excellent seat behind home plate for most of it.
A championship season is a gift. It's a wonderful, wonderful gift, but it's still a gift. It's not something we're entitled to. It's not a transaction, it's not something we're owed because we've chosen to cheer for this set of laundry. We haven't been cheated if we don't get it. That's not how it is with gifts.
I see that the Giants have dumped Stripling to the As.
Here's his chance to make more than 11 starts.
I enjoy our pregame banter. Thanks Magpie for your writeups. I follow the first few innings and then go to bed and sleep. I confess. Then up early I check the scoreboard and the standings. I enjoy the minor league box scores before the writeup and post on yesterdays minor league post. My admiration to those bauxites that stay for the whole game. I used to and then listened to Mike Wilner and the Jays fans express their closing comments on the game.
"Please try to enjoy these times"? I did that as a Jays fan. The Seattle & SD fans are still waiting for their WS championship. Texas finally got theirs.
"A championship season is a gift not something we are entitled to". Very wise words!! NYY fans are still learning that!!
A very enjoyable afternoon. Bring on ST and spring!!
And of course they won it all. The lesson I took away from that was not that the off-season is meaningless - far from it - but that no one knows what it means. Until they start actually playing the games.
You can see why the Blue Jays don't want to further deplete their farm system through trades or free agent signings. They are falling well off the pace in the division in the prospect talent acquisition arms race.
This is why they weren't able to trade for someone like Soto.
It's true that winning a championship is a gift but somewhere around 60 years without a gift and the fans stop believing in Santa Claus. Just one though, and they start believing again. Precious fools.
- 2020-now: Jays: 0, Rays: 1, NYY: 1, Red Sox: 0, O's: 3
- 2016-2019: Jays: 23, Rays: 20, NYY: 20, Red Sox: 13, O's: 15
WHite Sox fans, of course, had gone 88 years without hearing from Santa. Generations of fans born, lived, died.
This was karma, I realize, payback for 1919. But what did Cubs fans do to deserve their fate?
You can see why the Blue Jays don't want to further deplete their farm system through trades or free agent signings. They are falling well off the pace in the division in the prospect talent acquisition arms race.
This is why they weren't able to trade for someone like Soto."
With the exception of the Rays, all of those teams had terrible seasons and teams or did not make the playoffs 4 of the last 5 years with the fifth year missing by 1 game. I'll take that over a few terrible seasons finishing near the bottom to give me a better farm system.
And what the Orioles did is definitely not something I would continue to support as a paying customer.
One of the big strengths of the 2005 ChiSox was only using 6 SPs, though the same can basically be said for the 2007 version that went 72-90. The 2016 Jays (and last year's, to a lesser extent) were similar.
Keeping pitchers healthy is also a credit to the pitching coach.
The farm system helped facilitate some trades, but overall it hasn’t been especially productive. And the dearth of prospects in the last couple of years has prevented the front office from making a transformative trade or two that could have really helped the team.
The Blue Jays have a high payroll and that has somewhat concealed some of the farm system issues.
It's unfair to look at Austin Martin, SWR, Hoglund or Logue and say after the fact that they didn't pan out. They were good prospects and ranked highly which is why they got Berrios and Chapman for them. Have the Yankees traded equivalent prospects in the last 3 years for two impact players like Berrios and Chapman? The Astros?
Teams like the Braves, Rays and Dodgers are the exception. Smartest run organizations in the league.
I have no idea if what the Jays did was the correct path in terms of the players they actually chose, but the direction itself was correct for the position that they are in, IMO. Go for the elite talent and if that fails, then find the best short-term value. Next year's FA market is significantly better than this year's, so if the Jays are a team that wants to spend big (and it appears that they are) then having that flexibility next winter will be huge. You have to take advantage of a competitive window when you can, but you really have to weigh whether 2024-25 is worth taking on a bad contract(s) for 2026-beyond. It would be a lot easier to retool post 2025, thereby either shortening or eliminating a down period, if there was financial flexibility to improve. Bellinger, Chapman, etc, are not worth going into 2026-beyond payroll.
I'm not super high on the Jays farm system, but I do think it's a bit underrated. Davis Schneider's development was a huge win for this FO, and might give us some hope that internal player development can possibly help some players take the next step.
Just look at what the highly ranked prospects did last year.
Volpe, OPS+ 81, Cabrera 58, Peraza 49.
Florial never amounted to anything.
Jasson Dominguez played in 8 games last year and hit very well, but got TJ surgery right after.
- Jays: Alek Manoah 7.8 2019; Bo Bichette 17.7 2016; Marcus Stroman 21.7 2012; Orlando Hudson 30.9 1997; Roy Halladay 64.2 (best ever)
- NYY: Garrett Whitlock 5.0 2017; Jordan Montgomery 12.5 2014; Aaron Judge 41.5 2013; (2006 4 10's, 2005 2 20+'s, then to the mid 90's for more 10's); Derek Jeter 1992 71.3 (best draft pick the Yankees made)
- Rays: Shane McClanahan 8.6 2018; Brandon Lowe 13.7 2015; Blake Snell 21.1 2011; Kevin Kiermaier 35.5 2010; David Price 40.3 2007; Evan Longoria 58.6 2006 (best ever for them)
- O's: Adley Rutschman 9.6 & Gunnar Henderson 7.1 2019; Cedric Mullins 12.2 2015; Kevin Gausman 23.0 2012; Manny Machado 54.9 2010; Mike Mussina 82.8 1990; Cal Ripken Jr. 95.9 1978 (Best obviously)
- Red Sox: Tanner Houck 5.8 2017; Andrew Benintendi 16.1 2015; Mookie Betts 64.5 2011 (last 20+ other than Betts was Anthony Rizzo in 2007); Jeff Bagwell 79.9 1989 (tons of excellent guys in the 90s); Roger Clemens 139.2 1983 (8th best WAR all time but the Jays took Matt Stark instead before him - 18 players drafted before Clemens only 1 had more than 3.1 WAR and he [Tim Belcher] didn't sign)
My angst towards the 2023 squad was pretty loud but please don’t mistake it for them sliding in far below my expectations. Far from it. My issue was just how painful it was to continuously see a pitcher put up a wonderful game, while the offence continuously put fellas on base just to continuously strand them. If they fell behind by 2 after the 5th inning, the game felt over.
I’m not optimistic about 2024 either, as currently constructed. They have a better chance of finishing 5th than 1st. Significantly. The Orioles and Yankees have gotten much better on paper, but hey we’ve done that before too and maybe this is their turn to have to blow up ineffectively in their faces. We can only hope.
Which is where I’m at with this team and franchise. Blind hope. Blind optimism our hitters will bounce back (entirely possible… but also entirely not). Expecting the starting pitching to be as good as last year… a serious stretch, despite whatever injury-free projections think.
It beats the hell out of those 2000s teams sure, but some of those teams (2003 and 2006 especially) were fun in their fruitless endeavours regardless. I love those teams, and I want to love another Jays team as soon as possible. But the way this winter has gone? It’s gonna be real, real hard. The journey is more important than the result, and so…. This is a team adding around the margins while in a win-now situation, despite the core missing a piece or two. Even getting Yelich would be a serious boost, and they should try to do that.
Of course. They could also do one thing to rouse my pessimism from its slumber to enjoy all of this again…. You know his name, you know where he’s from, and for crying out loud check out his Instagram he still bangs, everybody.
Reading the scouting reports most of blame rests with Toman & Doughty's hitting this year compared to last. Wonder if the Jay's Lab had them change something and it didn't take.
Also why would they 8r Dylan Rock in AA his first full season? Is this the problem, rushing guys to fast?
No St Catharines, no Medicine Hat, just a revamped GCL
Great explanation about how the season was painful. Especially down 2 after the 5th felt like the game was over. So I am guessing that we did not make many comebacks when down 2 or more after the 5th. How about the opposite how many games were lost with a 2+ lead after the 5th?
Not optimistic about 2024 because the Burnes & Soto splashes were bigger than our Y Rodriguez/J Turner splash is my take.
We will get to compare the 2024 performances of Burnes after 2 months in the AL East with Manoah in April/May and I will add Cole. Feeling that the debuts of J Holliday and co compared to Orelvis and co and NYY,s prospects "favoring" Baltimore is the expected wisdom. This should take all year to evaluate. Let me cherry pick Evan Carter, Davis Schneider and J Dominguez for 2024 and any other surprises.
Only just now getting the memo? I induced a WTF eyeroll from my adult son when discussing Genesis, my favourite band. I told him that I wasn't a fan of the late stuff, after they had moved from prog rock to pop. When was that, dad? Oh, the late 70s and early 80s.
Old age just sneaks up on you. Any low scores I get in Grid are only because my long term memory is the only memory that halfway works for me. I am ready for Washington second basemen. My brain will shoot right to Ron Brand.
It would leave the Jays in an awkward position with Kiermaier, whom they've just signed to be the everyday center fielder. Presumably Yelich would have to play a lot of left field, making Varsho the candidate to move to center.
Or, perhaps, the Jays can find some way to keep them all fresh and happy by firing up the playing time algorithm and getting creative.
Biggio started 27 games in RF last year.
Yellich was intriguing in 2018-19, but isn't Schneider more intriguing right now?
Bob Dylan. Joni Mitchell. Jimi Hendrix. He knows them all. Willie Mays, maybe. Frank Robinson, no...Please e-mail complaints or comments about my parenting to mike@whatcanIdoaboutit.ca.
The instrumental passages in Cinema Show and Firth of Fifth are their very best ever. Hard to believe the lads were just 22 or 23 at the time.
Wondering who will be the 26th player?
I would say he's clearly a POSSIBLE / POTENTIAL solution. It remains to be seen if he can actually out-hit any defensive shortcomings, adjust to the high pitch, etc..
Not that I think it's impossible - I have high hopes for him. But, I don't have him penciled in for 140+ games, like I do Bo, for example.
His rolling xwOBA was a downward sloping line from start to finish. His start was extraordinary (over .400), but he finished at .241, which is not a viable MLB player. I’m also hesitant because his K% was 30% and his whiff% was 37%, and he really struggled with anything low & away, up & in, and down & in. Thats a lot of holes.
A lot of his success came on fastballs down the middle. When he stopped seeing those pitches, he fell off a cliff.
There are reasons for optimism, and I hope he’s awesome, but I see too many red flags to share the level of enthusiasm other posters have.
Yeah, his 0-31 slump sucked but that hot start wasn't a Travis Snider type (803 OPS in 24 games) it was beyond that. Guys who do that to start off tend to have something that works. Maybe he is going to just be a 110 OPS+ guy like Gurriel or a 130s guy like Bo (first 14 games 394/444/742). But the potential is there for a 'wow' 140's like Delgado, and I see the sub 100 like Snider as a low possibility.
I still expect a 2024 upside of 105-110 wRC+ based off strong OBP and HRs. Kind of a poor man's Brandon Lowe.
It means a high ceiling.
He was drafted as a third baseman but over the last 2 years, he played more LF than any other position.
In 2022, 46 games, 2 errors, 5 assists, 2 double plays.
Last year, 33 games, 1 error, 0 assist.
KK should be in there most of the time. With a lefty starting, Schneider can be in left and Espinal can play second. If KK is hurt, Biggio can play second.
The news, if there is any, is that the recovery will be longer than previously anticipated.
Biggio has an average arm. Schneider's arm seems to be below average.
Biggio is pulling the ball around 40% of the time lately. He has a big uppercut swing but the bat speed isn't great.
Schneider has pulled the ball over 50% of the time and most of his hits are on the pull side.
Schneider has shown more power but with a high barrel rate.
The data sample is very limited on Schneider.
Oh, I think they are both older than that, Mike!
I imagine he will significantly benefit from having Turner on the team. I bet we see the two of them sitting in the dugout together a lot this year.
1. George Springer, RF
2. Bo Bichette, SS
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
4. Justin Turner, DH
5. Davis Schneider or Cavan Biggio, 2B
6. Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk, C
7. Daulton Varsho, LF
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B
9. Kevin Kiermaier, CF
He argues that "another bat is needed" and "a Matt Chapman reunion would fit this roster even better now than three months ago."
"Further complicating the search is the matter of the team's local broadcast rights. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reported in January that the team hauled in approximately $67 million in revenue last season from NBC Sports Bay Area, via a contract that runs through 2033. Passan says the deal would be good for $70 million for the upcoming season, with the enormous caveat that the Athletics need to play their home games within the Bay Area. The only non-Coliseum venue within that zone of coverage that is reportedly under consideration as a temporary home is, hilariously, the stadium of the San Francisco Giants, an arrangement that Shea says would pose "a logistical nightmare." The other stadiums under serious consideration are in Summerlin, Nevada, and in Sacramento, neither of which are within the RSN's strictly defined geographical limits, meaning NBC Sports Bay Area would be under no obligation to pay its rights fees. Shea and Passan agree that the Athletics and the RSN could probably work out a reduced rate, a potential lowering of team revenue that will cause the blood of all 11 remaining Athletics fans to run ice cold."
Not having Chapman, Biggio, Espinal, IKF and Turner can all take turn at third.
Signing Chapman would bring us back to having 4 players fighting over 1 spot.
Vegas really seems to be ramping up the sports teams - Raiders, As, F1, etc.. Wonder how long the water will last.
The Twins don't seem to be trying very hard but neither is the rest of the division.
Chicago seems to be selling from a 100 loss team.
Rebuilds in Detroit and KC don't seem to be going anywhere.
Cleveland still has a crappy lineup.
Also born on this day was third baseman Don Hoak. He was one of those rare late bloomers, and there must be a story there. I knew of him first as one of the beneficiaries of the Cincinnati newspapers write-in campaign for the All-Star vote in 1957, but he had quite a little run. He was called up by the Dodgers in time for their 1955 World Series run, played in Cincinnati for a couple of years and then was reacquainted by Branch Rickey for the Pirates' push that led to the 1960 World Series triumph again over the Yankees. He finished 17th in the MVP vote in 2959 and 2nd in 1960. The All-Star vote for him in 1957 turned out to be entirely reasonable in the context, if a little premature.
Impressive precognition.
In other news, Keith Law has posted his top 100 prospects list on The Athletic. Here are the Blue Jays on the list:
52. Tiedemann
57. Orelvis
59. Nimmala
Law thinks that Nimmala "offers the upside of a true shortstop with 25+ homer power, with good actions at short and a plus arm, while he can show a powerful and efficient right-handed swing that should launch balls as he fills out."
It's easy to see a scenario where Schneider starts the season in Buffalo. Adames shouldn't be that expensive (and we have 3 Top100 prospects!), and Chapman is still out there.
“It really seems impossible that Toronto didn't win a playoff game last season…”
Which logically doesn’t make a lot of sense, as it’s not uncommon for a WC team to get beat 2-0. But Olney obviously needed to cover his tracks.
Not sure why they would spend that kind of $ on this. I guess maybe the costs of demo or someone's ego have factored in?
I suppose it offers the possibility of MLB returning someday (the chances seem less than miniscule), or the Jays playing some late spring training games there.
LAD has done everything to have a great year in 2024. NYY is trying to improve from an 82 win season in which the last 2 weeks were probably meaningless.
FG chat today:
Guest
3:01 do you think the bluejays are still looking to add this offseason?
Ben Clemens
3:01 I thought they were
but.... at this point, I do not
(sad emoticon)
I think they SHOULD
The only surprise amongst the pitchers, who are drawn mainly from AAA and AA, are Devereaux Harrison and Ryan Jennings.
The contract is heavily back loaded.
So, I guess KC buys 2 years and the cost is pretty hefty if his career takes a bad turn.
Manoah has a ZIPS war projection from 2024-2027 of 14.9 as of start of last year to 5.2 as of now for a decline of 9.7 WAR over that 4 year period. 5.2 / 4 years or 1.3/year is still servicable and not no value, but it is a long way from the CY Young candidate year of 2022 where he put up 6.0 WAR in 1 year. It is also significantly below even just averaging the last 3 years where he put up 7.8 / 3 years for more like 2.6/year. Although if you do the 3/2/1 Marcel like method of weighting 3 for last year, 2 for 2 years ago, and 1 for 3 years ago you'd expect about 1.9 WAR/year so ZIPs is even more sour on Manoah then that.
Hard to project when your last 2 years are 6.0 and -1.1 WAR.
No Van Eyk, He was decent in Arizona. He's obviously not a starting option.
Not because he expects to win but because either way he will beat the arbitration record set by Teoscar last year.
Much is said about players not wanting to hear negative things said about them by their team, but I don't think this is the case at all. People project arbitration results purely by looking at the numbers, so all a team need to do is present the numbers and compare them to historical numbers.
"Brewers ace Corbin Burnes lost his arbitration hearing against the team this week and, upon being asked about the process in Brewers camp today, offered a rather candid assessment of the hearing. The two-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner expressed 'disappointment' not in the loss itself but in the way the team approached negotiations and conducted itself during the trial. Most troubling for Brewer fans is that, asked specifically about his relationship with the team, Burnes admitted that damage had indeed been done."
Burnes has since been traded to the O's.
Projections are fun, but also very, very silly.
On the other end of MLB I'm very happy to see Jay Jackson signed a ML contract with the Twins - hopefully he gets a full year of ML service time this year, every bit counts for a guy who has been up and down like he has. Soler is in talks with SF it seems as his options have shrunk a lot. Chapman seems to be going either to the Cubs or Giants right now - same teams are also after Bellinger.
At this point I think the Jays are mostly set. They might do a mid-season trade for 3B (SD's Kim the strongest possibility - a free agent most likely after 2024) if none of the kids are ready.
Next winter will be quite interesting - last year of Bo & Vlad possibly, do you go all-out to try to win with them or just say 'screw it' and clear them out. Soto the biggest FA, Alex Bregman (3B), Willy Adames (SS), Pete Alonso (1B), Shane Bieber (SP), Walker Buehler (SP), Corbin Burnes (SP), Yusei Kikuchi (SP), Danny Jansen (C), and many others will be free agents too.
Guest
1:54 The Jays have 6 INF bench pieces and only 2 everyday players. What could possibly go wrong?
Steve Adams
1:54 Yeah their infield mix is wholly underwhelming. There's just no getting around that it's been a really disappointing and lackluster offseason from them so far.
By mid-season that could change to guys like Barger and Orelvis or Jimenez. The Jays have a bunch of guys at AAA who dont excite the scouty type people at BA, but are able to control the strike zone and get on base.
Remember that Schneider was nowhere on the depth chart this time last year.
The team has been caught between a rock (weak free agent class) and a hard place (dearth of prospects to trade from) this off-season.
It seems like Toronto is trying to chart a course that simultaneously allows them to compete for a playoff spot, sell a lot of tickets and attract television and online viewers, and ensure that the team still has a decent core of talent and prospects in 2026 and beyond.
Whether it’s feasible to pursue all of those goals at the same time is debatable.
Biggio and KK are platoon guys. I think that's fine.
Schneider seems like the other side of the platoon for both guys, so he will have to find more ABs at second while Biggio gets the rest of his ABs at third and all over.
Espinal might just play 3B against lefties and IKF is mostly a defensive replacement.
Maybe the Yankees aren't omniscient after all...?
He's used to playing LF.
Lukes only makes more sense if what they need is mostly a pinch runner.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/clinton-hollon-joins-from-phenom-to-the-farm-episode-97/
Maybe they can pry away Adames or Kim to play third base, although it might be better to keep him at shortstop and move Bichette to the hot corner.
After debating all of these ideas, all roads seem to circle back to "running it back and hoping for improvements from the existing players." It's not the most inspiring strategy, but it seems to be where we're headed.
IMO the most likely thing is the Jays trading Espinal as part of a package for an improvement at 3B (assuming Chapman is gone which seems logical). A 4th OF really isn't needed with Biggio & Schneider likely to be on the roster, plus IKF - who cover RF/LF/CF respectively. If an injury happens to one of the main 3 then things could get dicey, but that is what you have a team in Buffalo for - Lukes, Lantigua, Berroa, Eden, and Roden are all down there trying to earn a call-up. Plus you have Barger who was getting a lot of reps in RF last year. Safe to say the Jays won't put a ton of effort at this point into improving the OF. Late in games if a PH is needed for KK or Varsho you have one of Jansen/Kirk on the bench (with IKF you have an emergency 3rd catcher with Varsho #4).
1. George Springer, RF (solid veteran hitter -- defense weak but playable.)
2. Bo Bichette, SS (one of the best hitters in his position in the game -- decent defense.)
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B (great bat speed, excellent plate discipline, motivated after a crap year -- look out! Defense -- I'm confused.)
4. Justin Turner, DH (decent veteran hitter -- no d)
5. Davis Schneider or Cavan Biggio, 2B (I think Davis is the real deal and got squeezed by umps for some reason at the end of last year. I also think Biggio is underrated. Great batting eye -- but prone to slumps. As a tandem defense for position probly a little below average -- Biggio fine, Schneider below average.)
6. Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk, C (Jansen is a great hitter -- couple of freak injuries haven't helped. Kirk like Guererro had a crap year that was out of character of what he had done to that point -- look out! I see a big bounce-back for Kirk. Both have great D.)
7. Daulton Varsho, LF (I don't think his hitting will improve but the D will still be excellent.)
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B (I have no hope for K-Falefa. Let's play a the hot rookie whoever it is and cross our fingers.)
9. Kevin Kiermaier, CF (Great year last year. I expect less this year but nothing terrible. Great to good D and an okay bat.)
Overall, above-average offense and above-average defense. That coupled with an even a modest rebound from our former Ace, Manoah and/or the arrival of injury-prone Tiedemann and the rotation 1-5 should be one of the best again this coming year. So the potential for great starting pitching.
To me the weakness of this team isn't the starting nine (except for I K-F) but is actually depth at starting pitching. I don't see many good options after the top 5. If this team stays relatively healthy I think it's easily in the playoffs.
I'd love to see a better option for third and some starting depth but if healthy this "true-self" team looks good to me.
Pretty lousy last year. But still only 23. Might be worth a claim.
I am still waiting for Miami to trade a SP and CWS to trade Cease. 2 years of Cease should get some nice prospects. Miami has done practically nothing after gaining a playoff spot last year. They probably lose Soler so their O will suffer. I now think that they don't believe that they can compete. Last year was a fluke. So about bottom 5 in the NL IMO with or without the SP trade.
Kiermaier, like Chapman, got off to a hot start last year and then was mediocre over the last 4+ months of the season. They need to bring another OF, and there are lots of RH OFs still out there like Grichuk, Grossman, Pham, MTaylor, KHernandez, etc. that hit lefties well. The 1.8MM discrepancy in Guerrero's arbitration case could affect the FA they target.
I'm still hoping that Votto wants to play here in a limited role, and that they sign him + an OF and trade/option Espinal.
The Jays don't face a ton of lefties and Kiermaier will sit even against some RH starters.
Schneider can cover LF, so Espinal and IKF can cover 2B and 3B.
Otherwise, he can pinch hit late in games.
The problem with Votto is that there are no spot for him.
He can't play LF. As a pinch hitter he offers nothing over Horwitz.
Who could he pinch hit for? Pretty much just IKF and Espinal, 2 bench players.
Yankees 94
Blue Jays 88
Orioles 87
Rays 86
Red Sox 80
With the Yankees it's all about forecasting health.
I don't think the O's will finish this low, but maybe this is finally the year the Rays come back to Earth.
I was unimpressed by Horwitz's brief MLB cameo. Perhaps there's more there, but we haven't seen it yet.
Votto would never pinch hit for one of the top 4 hitters and the catchers can pinch hit for themselves.
Two or three of the remaining guys are left bats. That's just not happening.
If you don't stick to guys already on the 40 roster, you need to kick someone out to make room.
Lopez and Clement are 2 possible guys. I see Lukes more as an injury replacement.
Every year I do my own projections for the Blue Jays, including assigning PAs and IPs to players such that they add up to a full season of playing time. I try to be conservative. One example - Vladdy the last 3 years has logged 698, 706, and 682 PA. I’ll be projecting him at 600 PA for 2024.
This conservative approach to playing time isn’t enough to contain my optimistic tendencies, every year my total win projection ends up being higher than most.
The Twins have DFAed Jordan Balazovic who is from Mississauga.
I remember they offered him for Stroman before he was moved to the Mets.
Not sure why PHing for Kiermaier and Varsho with a lefty is that radical. They were both bad hitters for most of the '23 season.
There is always plenty of room on the 40-man roster for players that can help you win today. The bottom 5 (10?) spots are fungible.
There was some bad calls made in 2022, but in both cases there were some very poor performances by some players.
There should be no doubt that IKF is the best defender at 3B.
They would probably prefer to get Biggio's bat in there.
Schneider should be given a good look in the first 2-3 months.
Biggio got 338 PAs last year. That's actually the second most he's ever got with 430 in his rookie year.
Espinal got 254, down from 491 the previous year when he was a regular until they acquired Merrifield.
IKF only got 361 last year, 677 and 531 the previous years.
Merrifield got 591, which is probably what Schneider should get in a similar role but it's too early to tell.
Chapman got 581 which will go to several guys now.
Biggio could still get some starts at first and RF.
Yankees 75.6%
Rays 57.8%
O's 55.0%
Blue Jays 48.2%
Red Sox 26.3%
I don't think they are close to correct about the odds, in particular for the Yankees. The Yankee odds relies on overestimates of playing time for their 4 key players- Judge, Soto, Torres and Cole. It might be that they have the best odds in the division but they have the difference between the Yankees and the other 3 clubs noticeably too high.
Vladdy won by the way.
No, my issue is with faulty decision-making based on analytics, as most recently demonstrated by the predetermined choice of Blue Jays management to pull right-hander José Berríos after he allowed a leadoff walk in the fourth inning of Game 2 of their wild-card series against the Twins.
Jays management — and that’s the proper way to phrase it, because heaven forbid manager John Schneider be permitted to act on his own — wanted lefty Yusei Kikuchi against a pocket of left-handed hitters. Never mind that the Jays signed Berríos to a $131 million extension less than two years ago, or that he had struck out five in three scoreless innings. Who he is, and more importantly, how he was pitching, did not seem to matter.
The decision backfired, leading to the Twins’ only runs in their 2-0 victory, but the result is almost beside the point. In a sport full of random outcomes, even well-conceived decisions can backfire. Most everyone understands that aspect of baseball considers it part of the game. The scrutiny in the postseason is greater, and that’s all part of it, too.
The decision also was not the reason the Jays lost, seeing as how they reverted to their paper-tiger form and failed to score. But the comments by Jays players afterward were revealing. Vladmir Guerrero Jr. said the team “needs to make better decisions on everything.” Cavan Biggio said, “It was confusing just because we hadn’t done that all year.” Bo Bichette said, “I think (Berríos) deserves some trust in the biggest moments.”
In the past year, L-C built a collection of vintage SNES titles. It's been a fun challenge to search the city for retro video game stores.
Kiermaier, like Chapman, got off to a hot start last year and then was mediocre over the last 4+ months of the season.I don't think this is true: Kiermaier had exactly 2 below-average months, an abysmal June (34 wRC+) and a simply bad August (70 wRC+). All the other months were 100 or better (May 185 wRC+ the clear outlier), which might meet your definition of "mediocre" but doesn't meet mine.
Not sure why PHing for Kiermaier and Varsho with a lefty is that radical. They were both bad hitters for most of the '23 season.As mentioned above, this isn't true for Kiermaier last season, but it is true of him more generally over a full season. I'd have no problem pinch hitting for Kiermaier in most situations, so on that I agree with you.
Varsho, though, has an established history of hitting better than KK, with 2023 being the clear outlier. If you think that an 80 wRC+ is Varsho's new normal going forward, that's your prerogative, but ZiPS doesn't agree, and his history of performance in the minors and majors makes me agree with the projections until proven otherwise. For that reason, it'd have to be a clear upgrade for me to be OK with a Varsho pinch hitting situation: one of the other regulars is sitting for some reason, or maybe Turner didn't start the game. In most other situations I'd ride with Varsho.
While the list doesn't have 30 names (since, for example, Giancarlo Stanton has the longest homers at Coors, National Park and Dodgers Stadium), there are three former Jays, who each appear once.
None of them hit the homers while they were members of the Jays and none of them holds the record at the Rogers Centre.
I always find it interesting to look at the group think after these lists are made. You get oddities every year - right now the award for weirdest pick has to be FanTrax having Gabriel Martinez as #4 (ahead of Addison Barger, Enmanuel Bonilla, and Arijun Nimmala).
$1.85 M.
I dont have a problem with it. It might be the first time in his life that he has been told there are some things that need to improve. If it lights a fire under him, so much the better.
There is the concern that he may walk away in two years, but that seems likely to happen anyway.
He is a tough one. Based on potential, skills, and lovability, you sign him to a 12 year, zillion dollar contract. But then the concerns about fitness and professionalism become magnified. He just does not look like a guy who is going to age well.
By the way, there were three Jays who were actually on the team when they gave up a longest home run for that opposing team. One of them was my most-hated reliever ever. And finally, does anyone know who hit the longest home run in a Toronto Blue Jay uniform?
There was only one name I recognized and he never played for the Jays. He was just in their system.
What I thought odd was the hitter with the longest HR at Skydome; not someone I even remember (if in fact, I remember that factoid correctly.)
None of the guesses are correct.
The list I saw had Paul DeJong, Bradley Zimmer and Randal Grichuk on it.
I can't imagine anyone thought they'd see any of those names.
Yeah, you'd think Vladdy would say, 'heck, it's less than $2M, I had a disappointing year, I can earn it back with a monster season.'If he did settle for less, though, it wouldn't set arbitration precedent, and this way he sets new expectations for everyone who comes after him.
Ben Shulman would seem the most likely.
A grade of D is a bit low, if C is considered average.
Othani and Soto are the 2 guys who could have made a huge difference.
It doesn't look there is anything they could have done to sign Othani.
Maybe Tiedemann and Orelvis would have brought Soto, but even then the fans would have complained about not signing him to an extension.
People were very excited in 2013 and they finished dead last.
2014 was a wasted year with no pitching to support the offense.
2015 was the great marketing coup of signing Martin who was a huge sell in Quebec and the pre-season games at the Big O, but they only had a .500 team in a weakened division until they loaded up at the deadline.
We'll see soon enough if not signing Bellinger is good or bad.
Chapman played some nice defense but I'm ready to watch some youngsters.
Has a Blue Jays catcher ever had a better season (by WAR) than Martin's 2015 season?
I remember reading a few years ago that arbitration hearings were still pretty old school from a statistical standpoint - I doubt they're considering WAR or anything else like that. It's also based on comparisons to other players with similar levels service time, not just an evaluation of the player in isolation.
I don't think I've ever seen details about who said what in a given hearing. I don't suppose either side has any interest in leaking detais.
An interesting tidbit was a report of Mickey Mantle hitting a 565 foot home run, but they didn't measure where it landed but rather at the point it stopped rolling into someone's yard outside the ballpark.( Forget which one) Willie Stargell had the longest home run at Dodger Stadium and the ball, when it landed, actually hit a bus in the parking lot.
A few notes about Stargell I read include that he hit 7 of the 18 balls that ever went over Forbes Field's 86 foot high grandstands. Forbes field, the precursor to Three Rivers Stadium, had a 457 foot center field so Stargell probably lost a few home runs there although he did finish with 475 over his career. Stargell was the only MLB player to ever hit a fair ball into the club deck at Olympic Stadium which I presume is pretty high up. The home run was measured at 535 feet. The seat it hit was painted yellow and now resides in the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.
I can't recall the distance though.