It's hockey night! In Canada!
Besides - $700 million seems like a lot of money for a DH.
Of course, one reason the Blue Jays may have been interested in Ohtani is because Ohtani reciprocated that interest to some extent (although this may have been for leverage purposes). It’s not clear whether Yamamoto is even open to playing for Toronto.
Yes, but a DH that will sell a heckuva lot of jerseys on both sides of the Pacific.
I really hope that there is no Yamamoto drama the way there was for Ohtani. Maybe the media has learned something.
This.
"I think the best path would be to sign Yamamoto (and Lee, if possible) and then make additional moves as needed. Double down on pitching and defense and also try to make a couple of offensive improvements.
Yamamoto and Lee are also good choices because they’re young and should perform well for many years."
This too.
"Seems pretty obvious the Jays were “finalists” only in the sense they were the only team naive enough to be used to lever some more dollars out of the Dodgers. Or perhaps they were aware they were being manipulated but happy to play along just to put on a bit of a show for their fans. If they just tinker around the edges the rest of the winter, we’ll know they were never serious about spending with the big boys and were just play acting."
Really, you came out of the woodwork at the Batter's Box just to get excited about Shohei then immediately turned into posting this garbage nonsense?
Payton Henry is a good enough defensive C. He could be a #3 C for the Jays in case of injury.
Our farm is ranked as weak. However we have a quantity of players that have successfully passed AA. While Pearson took forever (injuries) to produce anything to help the ML team, Max Castillo was right on time to help the Jays a little. We have needed mid season pitching to help the pen and rotation and Atkins had to trade for it. Like T Walker in 2020 who was better than R Ray in 2020. In 2021 Cimber was good. Hand and Soria were not. 2022 Bass & Pop. 2023 G Cabrera & Hicks.
I have to admit that the weak ranking is justified based in the evidence that I just provided. Hopefully 2024 is better.
Gio Urshela is an appealing short-term solution, if Orelvis Martinez and others can compete for the job.
Matt Chapman is still out there. Haven't heard many rumours about him.
Also, they seem interested in a guy who can play center and bats right, presumably to be the 4th outfielder.
The other holes are LF and DH, they could plug just about anybody there, but would they be any better than the free guys currently in AAA?
I don't like long term options like Machado. Soto will be a free agent in a year and he will go to the highest offer. He should be a DH before long.
I like short term options like Max Kepler who is available, but they probably want pitching back.
I'd try to bring Belt back. Just be ready for him to take 6 weeks to get going.
The biggest issue is the lack of a quality cleanup bat.
A guy who can clear the bases and expend the strike zone with 2 strikes while still getting hits.
Othani playing for the Dodgers rather than the Angels isn't going to affect the Jays much.
The Angels could be terribly bad which would help the 3 good teams in the ALW grab wild card spots.
Soto playing for the Yankees is probably going to make them better.
The threshold for that last wild card could be a couple of wins higher in 2024.
In truth, that makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't be shocked if a rep of the company Ohtani is with leaked that information in an effort to push the Dodgers over the top. If so, then congrats to that person - they deserve a raise. Also, as a Jays fan, may that person be damned to hell.
Now, for impact - Ohtani in 2024 is projected at 4.2 to 4.3 fWAR right now. J.D. Martinez (DH for Dodgers in 2023) was at 2.2 last year, projected at 0.6 for 2024. Bellinger was at 4.1 projected at 2.4-2.6. Steamer has 34* (*=Wander Franco who will probably be out all year) guys projected to be 4.0+ guys in 2024 - potentially available are Tatis (if SD goes full fire sale), Francisco Lindor & Brandon Nimmo if NYM go fire sale (if they lose out of Yamamoto I could see this happening), Mike Trout (LAA gotta be thinking about it at least), Xander Bogaerts (SD has already been begging people to take his crazy deal). That is it for high impact projected guys ala Ohtani. Manny Machado is just shy at 3.8.
Only 4 guys are projected at 2+ WAR that are still free agents - Chapman (2.6), Bellinger (2.4), Amed Rosario (2.3), Rhys Hoskins (2.0). Soler & the rest are sub 2's (ie: below average regulars) with Garver at 1.8 for 96 games (poor defensive catcher/DH). Teoscar & Gurriel both at 1.4 projections. Gio Urshela 1.1 in 92 games. You get the idea. Basically outside of pitching the players out there are underwhelming either by trade or free agency.
For pitchers they don't project Yamamoto, but Snell is at 3.3, Montgomery 3.2, Stroman 2.6, Paxton 2.3, Giolito 2.3, Lugo 2.1, Manaea 2.0. Snell is tempting there as he'd lock down the rotation nicely but then what to do with Kikuchi/Manoah - do you really want them fighting for that last slot, do you trade one of them for something?
Basically high impact players just aren't on the market. The top 10 hitters are either signed long term (Ramirez, Tatis, Acuna, Judge, Betts, Alvarez, Julio Rodríguez), pre-arb (Rutschman, Gunner Henderson), or were just traded for (Soto). The only hope to get one is to have a team desperate to cut costs who you match up with (SD for Tatis, Cleveland for Ramirez but I don't see him being traded after he signed a below market deal to stay and has universal no-trade protection).
Yamamoto is the only possible high impact guy left on the board imo and he could struggling in his first ML season (it isn't odd for that to happen). My gut is the Jays go hard after Bellinger and Chapman hoping to sign one or the other. But hopefully not stupid after them (ie: no 10 year $200+ deal). My ideal is signing Jung-Hoo Lee and Yamamoto and Gio Urshela. Covers the core positions with solid defense/pitching for probably $50 mil a year ($15 for Lee, $25 for Yamamoto, $10 for Urshela) but with the Mets/Yankees/Dodgers/etc. all after Yamamoto it might be impossible to get him and the price might go stupid high (OK, will go, maybe up to $30-40 per year range). If they can get Lee for $15 mil per he'd be at worse an overpriced solid defensive 4th OF, at best a new high average leadoff hitter as Springer gets old. Urshela's worst case is similar but cheaper (utility IF with solid defense, similar to Espinal).
Just for fun - Ohtani hasn't passed his physical yet and the paperwork isn't 100% completed. Normally technicalities but after the Correa mess last winter who knows?
It’s a challenging situation but maybe Atkins can puzzle his way through it.
On the other hand, he is a pitcher. Long-term contracts without a track record of durability are a dubious proposition. Decisions.
Yes, Ross Atkins is in a tough spot, if he does or doesn't.
I hope the Blue Jays make a massive bid to land Yamamoto, partly because he seems to be exceptionally good at baseball and partly because he would make the Blue Jays an exciting team again.
Other than bringing in a good bat Atkins does "not" have to do anything IMO. Our rotation and pen is good. D is fine.
I expect some moves from Atkins. The 3rd C is probably ok. We could use a 4th OF that has good D in CF.
I still say that the goal is to be in contention for the whole year. So on paper we are pretty good. Snell, Montgomery, Cease and maybe 2 more good SPs are all that is available at the moment it seems. Our competition can add probably only 1 which will not be enough to run away with the AL. IMO 1 or 2 hot teams will be the leaders due to a hot start.
The crazy thing is, the trade simulator tilts that WAY in favor of the Padres, because Bo has like $55M excess value, and the total package from the Padres has slightly negative value, IIRC. That's why they'd have to include $$ to offset Machado. Taking Bo OUT of that package makes it much closer, but I think if you traded Machado, Bogaerts and Tatis for VGJ coming off a 2 WAR year, people would burn down the stadium in San Diego.. Maybe Vlad and Manoah and Springer and no cash?
The Padres, if they really need to cut a TON of $$, would probably do this deal - I mean, even with all these guys AND Soto, they couldn't get CLOSE to the playoffs, and now they're without Soto.. Time for a rebuild. Jays are in the "win now" mode, but, crazily enough, Vlad and Bo are the two pieces they were supposed to build around. They've signed a ton of good to great supporting players, but Vlad was the one who has regressed.
The Ohtani contract could blow up if he starts having further injury problems. This would seem to be a big risk, especially if he tries to be a hitter and a starting pitcher. As a power pitcher and power hitter, he would have a lot of force exerted on his body on a regular basis, something that could catch up to him in his 30s (and may already be catching up to him).
But back to reality - LF, 3B, DH - the positions the Jays need to fill. Or we go with Lukes/cheap free agent, Biggio/Espinal, Horwitz/whoever isn't catching while Schneider has 2B. Yikes in LF, potential yikes in IF.
LF: Bellinger is the big fish, 3B: Chapman, DH: ummm....
Yeah, not a lot to get out there, not a lot on the trade front unless the Jays eat a LOT of cash or a team is so desperate about finances they make a stupid deal. Right now the best hope is one or two of the kids are ready (Schneider, Barger, Orelvis Martinez, whoever) and the Jays get lucky with someone (Chapman or Bellinger ideally). I'd be very shocked if we get Yamamoto, as nice as it'd be.
The team that puts the most cash on the table is the only one the player can deal with.
The tabs for Yamamoto is supposed to be over 300M including the posting fee.
The Yankees are probably the favourite here. They've lost pitching to get Soto.
https://www.milb.com/news/minor-league-baseball-and-p-r-o-s-sports-housing-announce-partnership
"In addition to securing the properties where players and coaches reside during the season, P.R.O.S. also provides furnishing, utility set up, orientation, bilingual services, accessible customer service 24 hours a day and damage insurance programs."
Still. Would he sign for a discount to be on the same team as the guy who signed for 700M?
Maybe 400M with a huge deferral instead?
Of course, the Yankees and Mets (and Giants and who knows who else) will make him huge offers as well.
Interesting on Twitter how Ricky Romero and Kevin Gausman basically furious over how the US media is saying 'thank god Ohtani went to LA instead of Toronto, so much better for MLB'. Good to see current and former Jays standing up for Toronto.
My feeling, based on what we are seeing, is that Bellinger is very open to Toronto and I suspect using current and former players as cheerleaders would help sell him on TO. But it depends on what other options are out there in trade (not much afaik) and how the Jays rate him at this point (do they see him going all the way back to his peak of 7.8 fWAR in 2019, or more like his -1.0 in 2021. His peak year was at 23, same age as Bo's first 5+ WAR season (Vlad was 22 in his big year). If the Jays data team sees Bellinger as being likely to get back to that level then he is easily worth the $200+ he is asking for, but if not then he isn't. I'd probably look at an incentive based deal where he has 5 years locked in, but years 6 and on are activated based on playing time (IE: each healthy year adds one on).
Hopefully people learned their lesson last week.
What's that, about 450-475MM present value? So not an enormous leap beyond Judge's current rate of 40MM per.
I guess the question is whether the Dodgers' approach is materially different from the Padres' attempt last year at paying Judge an amount for 10 years, but on a "14-year" contract, to lower the AAV, well aware they'd be cutting him loose after 10 years.
The Dodgers will still incur a ~45MM annual "cap hit" (or whatever the math works out to based on the contract's PV). Given that so many expected Ohtani to be getting 500-550MM for 10 years, with no deferments, this is really on the player to accept a "below market value" rate. It definitely looks like he could have got more money by foregoing deferrals, though seeing far less than 700MM. Even though this was Ohtani's idea, I wonder if the union might have issues with Ohtani's PV annual rate being lower than expected.
One can complain about the shenanigans to come to a lower AAV for tax purposes, but Ohtani has seemingly left tons of money on the table. He's very serious about wanting to play for a team that can compete.
At that rate, 70M in 2034 is worth 44.5M in 2024.
I don't see a point in compounding the whole 10 year since 70M over 10 years isn' t worth 700M anyway.
Another point is that he can dodge the California tax if he's not living there in 10 years.
Also worth nothing is that Freeman and Betts have also deferred money in their contract but only 115M for Betts and 57M for Freeman.
I don't know US or California taxes but he is being paid $70M per year for his services, are we sure he is not taxable on the $70M.
Japenese people seem to like living in Japan, I don't suppose Ohtani would like to live in the Cayman Islands, or Monaco, or some other tax haven after retirement.
BUT, if the deferred payments are paid out over a period of 10 years or more, then the payments are taxed based on the state of residence when the payments are made.
So the deferral seems to be a tax dodge by Ohtani and his advisors. So is the deferral really about helping the Dodgers or is it to help Ohtani dodge taxes?
Significant trades should happen late Dec or early Jan. For example Moreno/ Gurriel happened Dec 23.
Is Atkins reluctant to trade Tiedemann after the way things played out with Moreno? Likewise, the success of Davis Schneider, will that lend itself to other prospects being given an opportunity? (Orelvis Martinez, et al.)
Agree with bpoz about a relief pitcher.
BUT, if the deferred payments are paid out over a period of 10 years or more, then the payments are taxed based on the state of residence when the payments are made.
So the deferral seems to be a tax dodge by Ohtani and his advisors. So is the deferral really about helping the Dodgers or is it to help Ohtani dodge taxes?
Not particularly. Last year they signed Bassit & Kiermaier; the year before, Gausman & Kikuchi; before that, Springer & Semien. Plus a variety of trades - Varsho, Chapman, etc. Regardless of what you think of the results, the front office doesn't have a track record of sitting around.
I think it's extremely difficult to come to that conclusion without knowing what the other offers were - I suspect that the dodgers offer was very competitive with other offers.
I'm not saying they WANT to be inactive.. But, are they getting Bellinger or Yamamoto? Given the Ohtani outcome (and others not wanting to come to Toronto), I'm guessing not.
Who's left? We don't exactly have a lot of trading capital.
I wonder if Manoah has lost some weight too.
Really hoping for Yamamoto to the Jays as a smart long-term addition to the team. Then Bellinger and/or Chapman.
I'd rather not have Bellinger or Chapman.
One big trade to bring us a strong left handed hitter.
Sign a slugger like Soler.
I'd be okay with that.
3B is going to be the nightmare I suspect - resign Chapman for more years/$$ than ideal (5 x $30 per he wants, maybe get at 6 x $25 - same dollars, but 1 more year which probably will be a bad one, but spreads dollars out more, ages 31-36). Would be a LOT cheaper than Machado though (31-40 $333 mil), who hits better than Chapman but also fields worse. Hate to say it, but the longer this winter goes the more likely Chapman being back here for 5-6 years at a high $ seems to be.
In ex-Jay news Pirates sign Rowdy Tellez for 1/$3.2 mil.
For pitchers there are 3 with 10+ WAR the past 3 years - Julio Urías, Brandon Woodruff, Clayton Kershaw. 9's are Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery. No 8's, 7's are Marcus Stroman, Tyler Mahle. For the rotation I'd have trouble going any lower outside of Japanese pitchers who are 'wow' there (see Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga who has been forgotten somehow but could be a very solid 3-4 year guy). Plus there is a new wild card out there - Roki Sasaki has asked to be posted, rumors are he has a clause that allows him to force it and he would just be paid via the IFA rules, not unlimited, ala Ohtani when he came over. Just entering his age 22 season with a 1.90 ERA over 3 seasons, 303 IP - damn that'd be nice to get, 13.4 K/9 last year with just 1.7 BB/9 too. His team will probably fight it, but if posted he has to be posted by the 15th and probably wouldn't sign until after January 15th when IFA budgets get reset. Odds are he'd go to a west coast team, but if he comes over you know everyone would try to convince him they are the right team for him including the Jays.
At first I thought Urias was tempting, then I looked him up - domestic assault cost him a chunk of last season so I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. Brandon Woodruff has an injury in his right shoulder (cost him the playoffs) otherwise he'd be tempting. Kershaw would only play for the Dodgers or maybe the Rangers (his hometown team). So for a 'lets make the rotation killer' we are down to Snell, Yamamoto, Montgomery, Stroman, and Imanaga. Maybe. I'd only sign another starter outside of Yamamoto if someone was after one of the Jays starters in a trade for a quality 3B or OF. Mainly because I'm nervous having 2 slots for Kikuchi and Manoah (I don't fully trust either given 2022 and 2023 respectively) and don't trust White and Tiedemann to cover more than a handful of IL starts. Mahle isn't a realistic option as he had TJ surgery in May and will be out for most of 2024 ala Ryu in 2023 - so he might be a nice 2 year deal guy given how well things went with Ryu, but there is a lot of risk there plus he wouldn't help until August at the earliest most likely. Still, it would be nice to have someone ready then to fill in if an injury or ineffectiveness thing hits again like with Manoah this year.
Coming off the books is about $60mil I believe. Ryu, Chapman, Belt, KK, Merrifield and Cimber. I have no info on Arb salary increases for 2024. 1 big bat seems crucial via FA or trade. Other teams also need to improve. For example Texas probably adds both or either pitching or hitting. This reduces FAs.
Throwing money around can help (Texas) or not (NYM).
Can the current roster compete for a playoff position? I strongly believe that they can. I also think signing Chapman could hurt the team because he "has" to play everyday and if his O is similar to last year we have a weak O.
Canada has a different tax system and the tax advantages of his new contract might not have been available to him up north.
If that is all the Rays get for Glasnow & Margot I'd be surprised. But never underestimate the Rays ability to find gems where others see coal.
Suarez had an OPS+ of 101 last year and led the majors in K's 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the last two! He struck out 30.8% last year. He is 31, so what you see is what you get.
Kelenic had his best season last year with an OPS+ of 109, but he struck out 31.7% last year (Chapman who most of us hate watching swing through pitches was 28.4%). 253/327/419 from a corner outfielder is not so exciting. He is going to be 24 so maybe he will improve. He has an OPS+ of 85 in SEA. So far he has not shown much.
Bottom line is that its not clear either of these guys is much of an improvement over what the Jays have internally, and its a little early to be settling for them, when there are better players out there. Teo or Lourdes would be equal to or better than Kelenic and they cost nothing in terms of prospects.
We saw what a heavily injured and weakened, Franco-less Rays looked like late last season. It's hard to fathom such a team competing, especially with Glasnow presumably leaving. I say this as a fan of the organization and fully cognizant that they have been dismissed as dead numerous times in the past. If this were the "bring out your dead" scene, they would indeed be lying on top, claiming not to be dead yet, but not convincingly so.
Choose one between Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernández? Gurriel Jr.
Bellinger 12/264
Chapman 6/150
The Jays should be nowhere near Bellinger and Chapman at the price tags predicted by MLBTR.
Bellinger won a silver glove playing in centerfield. He's only 28. Chapman will be 31.
They could try to bat him 3rd between Bo and Vlad.
Chapman is looking like he should hit in the bottom of the order.
He also thinks Lee could start out in CF but "should end up in a corner by the midpoint of this contract."
As I've been saying for a while, I would have liked to see him end up in Toronto.
Likewise, about a year ago, saw radio host Jeff Blair (or doppelgänger) who was stealing free parking at the supermarket.
I wonder how much + would it take for Horwitz + ?
Would Manoah+ Horwitz do it? Is it too big of a loss on Manoah? Seems like Jays want him gone, so if that package works I'd do it, but no idea what more would be enough.
Horwitz seems to have the contact skills Marlins FO craves at the moment.
"The past World Series averaged 9.1M viewers per game over 5 games ~ 45.5M viewers total
Todays Dodgers press conference introducing Shohei Ohtani drew 70M"
From https://dodgersnation.com/shohei-ohtanis-dodgers-press-conference-got-more-views-than-the-entire-2023-world-series/2023/12/15/
His new jersey sales have already broken the 48-hour record for sales (any sports - beating Messi to Inter Miami) from https://www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/shohei-ohtanis-dodgers-jersey-broke-fanatics-record-in-sales-rks97
So both these show that again there is a baseball on the field ROI from these contracts but there is also an off the field ROI from his contract that make the $700M (~$460M if you use the discount rate for deferral that the salary cap does) have multiple ways to work out.
Shows that in additional to
Ohtani would gladly take $460m today and invest and be way ahead of the $700m in 20 years.
Rogers' cost of capital is probably in the 10-12% range, though I haven't evaluated it in years.
Timing of taxes is an unknown variable.
There's a good chance that inflation is somewhat lower over the next 10 years.
Let say it averages 3% and Othani makes more and the Dodgers pay more, but for luxury tax purposes it's 46M per year for 10 years. Some of the projections for Othani were over 500M, albeit for 12 years.
The talk is that Yamamoto could be getting over 300M with a second meeting with the Mets and Yankees.
I am not sure where the cost of capital comes into play when you defer payments.
It just shows in the book as a future liability and you typically don't do anything about it.
Tax aside for now, Ohtani would opt for $460m today, invest it at a reasonable return of 8-10% and be way ahead of where he'll be under the current structure in 20 years.
Similarly, by deferring payments, an Owner will deploy the saved capital elsewhere and return say 10% per year.
4.43% is almost a risk free return. (long bonds are around 4%)
Happiness, even to an extreme degree, was permitted at da Box. And as far as I know the One Note Charlie/Negative Nancy admonitions have never been applied to Gleeful Gus/Ecstatic Elizabeth.
“Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Since the Arizona Diamondbacks went to the World Series, they have:
- Signed Eduardo Rodriguez for four years, $80M
- Re-signed Lourdes Gurriel for three years, $42M
- Traded for Eugenio Suarez
They're planning on adding a power-hitting DH.
Win, then improve. How it should be.”
Hail Mary!
Or "D-Backs are getting four years of a guy everyone else passed on in the league and six plus years of Moreno who arrived and performed earlier than anyone expected, for four years of Varsho who underperformed but was the best player in the deal."
Whatever your opinion is, the deal was done by the same guys who traded Austin Martin and SWR for 9! Years of Berrios...
The merits of the Varsho trade will be clearer in a couple of years. Right now it’s too early to draw conclusions. One thing we do know is that Arizona has the advantage in terms of controllable years, and that Moreno has set himself up well after a successful 2023 postseason. Moreno took a step forward in 2023, while Varsho took a step back.
Guessing they are on to plan C or D at this point.
Had the Jays replicated the D-Backs’ off-season (Rodriguez, Suarez, LGJ, plus likely DH addition to come—JD or Turner), they would actually be in decent shape for 2024, at a reasonable price.
Arizona is smart because those are good, solid players and the term of their contracts is reasonable.
Tiedeman hasn't pitched a lot of innings in pro ball, but how many innings has he pitched in the Blue Jays pitching lab? 1000? I'm sure they know what his real expected IP number is and I expect it to be similar to Alek Manoah's when he first joined.
Well everyone needs pitching except maybe Miami.
Let say they get Bellinger and J.D. Martinez to play LF/DH.
They can pluck any hot bat from the 40 roster in 2B/3B to hit 8th and 9th.
I don't see any sense in emptying the farm system to get a bunch of average players (2WAR).
Part of developing players is to bring them up.
There are rumours that the Jays are interested in J. India.
He's an average right bat at the easiest infield position in one of the weakest division and he has a history of injuries.
Jays top 5 WAR players were Gausman, Bichette and Chapman for the record.
In free agency you can sign either Jordan Montgomery or Cody Bellinger ... everyone else is pretty much less than 3 WAR player.
Fangraphs projects roughly 3 WAR for a full season of Ricky Tiedemann (but they only think he will throw 1/3 so less than 1 WAR).