A fun read Eephus. I love that you put your humor and personality into these great efforts.

Thanks, Eephus. Nice review of the free agent class.

Snell and Bellinger have too many red flags to give the length of contracts they're going to get. Gray has serious makeup issues and is just another Anthony Bass.

Imanaga is a changeup guy that probably doesn't have the stuff needed for the AL East.

And I hope they move on from Chapman at the money/term he's going to get. He already turned down more from the Jays than he's worth. I can't stand watching him hit. He just has no instinct/approach at the plate.

My gut tells me the Jays are going to be more mid-level FA shoppers used by agent sto push up the $$$ on the big boys. And anything big will come via trade. I'd be happy with one of Hoskins or Garver. And a stop gap of Urshela and/or Brian Anderson at 3B until Martinez (who predominantly played 2B at AAA and winter ball) or Barger or Palmegiani (he'd probably be acceptable/steady there for a couple years) is ready.

I'd also look at MiLB FAs Alejo Lopez, Drew Ellis and Cody Thomas.

And inquire on trades for Nick Loftin or Jared Triolo as possible 3B guys while dangling some RP depth+ in return.

I skipped over all the SP options. So many of them, but signing a starter now would be like going to the Chinese buffet and eating only desserts. Yes, I see children do that.

So many ex-Jays in the position players list.
It's like a high school reunion.

I'm surprised that they haven't extended Jansen.
Or at least tried.

Looks like and has the name of somebody who should be playing steel guitar in a country band.

Yup.

Thanks for the great read!

You convinced me on Urshela. Not on Votto though. Watching one of the best Canadian ball players of all time come home and find out he is done would not be much fun. At best he is Curtis Granderson, and then we get to hear Buck talk about Veteran Presents all year.

A lot hinges on whether Manoah is on the treadmill and eating his veggies. If he is, then keep him. If he is still hitting the buffet then trade him and sign Ryu. Presumably they could get someone to play LF in the trade.

Although part of me thinks they should sign Ryu anyway and go with a six man rotation until someone gets nicked up.

"Veteran Presents" - the gift that keeps on giving!

MLBTR reports that there are several teams interested in Vladimir…

Gutierrez.

J.D. Martinez would be a nice complement to VGJ and Horwitz. Martinez torches left-handed pitching, VGJ has modest reverse splits and Horwitz is much better against RHP. You can get:

VGJ-600 PA playing first base against LHP and occasionally against RHP, and DHing against RHP fairly regularly

Martinez- 400 PAs DHing against lefties and occasionally against RHP and pinch-hitting, and

Horwitz-400 PAs playing first base most of the time against RHP.

I think you would have a decent chance to get 6-7 WAR out of the 1B/DH slots which would be quite a bit better than last year despite the loss of Belt.

It's a good idea although there is age-related risk with Martinez, who will turn 37 next August.

Martinez (DH), Lee (OF), Yamamoto (SP), plus a third baseman, would be a terrific off-season.

Yamamoto apparently has a preference to join a club with another Japanese player on the roster. With Kikuchi in the fold, the Blue Jays may have a leg up.

I'm not sure you want to clog the roster up with three hitters with such limited defensive abilities/lack of versatility.

I'd much rather see Hoskins or Garver and avoid a 35+ year old DH. Or just go with it as a slot to cycle through every day guys that need rest.

All fun, and this list was fun, to speculate about free agents. Until the big 3 hitters sign though the Jays will be quiet I suspect. Ohtani, Bellinger, Chapman are all on the Jays radar/wish list (as well they should be). If any are signed it would be just 1 of those 3. Odds are the Jays have their plan B's being negotiated with, all told once player A (parallel to them) signs then the Jays can dot the i's and cross the t's on a deal with plan B player. Urshela makes a lot of sense at 3B as he can move anywhere on the diamond as needed if a kid emerges ready to take over.

If the Jays get a big name then all bets are off, but right now I suspect they are chasing those big names hard. I'd love Yamamoto to be signed, especially if an Ohtani signing precedes it. That would free up Manoah to be delt easily without fear (while still having the option to keep him in AAA) and have zero pressure on prospects to do well quickly outside of injuries. As Eephus said - it isn't my money after all.

Might as well go big at this point. Does Shapiro really want his legacy in Toronto to be a couple of "almost famous" teams and some meagre postseason success (followed by a bunch of rebuilding years)?

Win the whole thing now.

Missed out on Cole, Seager, Freeman, and Verlander.

Don't be a bridesmaid again this off-season.

"Missed out on Cole, Seager, Freeman, and Verlander."


This is why I always bring up these missed signings...if you're going to do it then do it. Shapiro has not gone all in ever in his career. Ever. Not with renovations not with signings not with trades, etc.

If he was a bit less risk averse he'd likely have Jose Ramirez as a 3B at a cost of Moreno or some combination of Groshans, Hoglund and Pearson. Instead they got Varsho who is nice but not MVP worthy.

The window of contention was supposed to be 2021-2025. The team is decent as currently constructed but likely needs more to attain excellence (assuming that is a priority for the front office and ownership).

The great thing about Yamamoto and Lee is that they’re young. They would help the team remain relevant before, during, and after 2025.

I just ordered two stadium seats from the team which I will have installed in my home. These are old seats being replaced by newer ones from the renovation. I thought it was good that they offered this.

Ohtani and done. That should do it. Blue Jays 2024 WS. Easy-peasy.

Last year meaningful signings and acquisitions had some kind of layering if I remember correctly. Kim Ng of Miami explained it quite well. She had to wait until the expensive FAs layer was done and maybe 2 other layers. Finally Jan 20 she traded P Lopez plus prospects for L Arraez. This same formula may happen this year.

I never know for sure how serious people are about the superlatives for Ohtani. He's definitely unique and extremely talented. But taking into everything into account, he hasn't dominated his time the way Mike Trout or Barry Bonds (pre-lockout version) or Mike Schmidt or Joe Morgan or Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle or Ted Williams or Babe Ruth.

Fangraphs has him projected for 4 WAR next year. I think that's low; as a full-time rightfielder, I think 6 WAR is a fair expectation. One of the best players in the league, for sure.

If the Blue Jays signed him that they could reasonably expect to get 11 WAR from their outfield and 1.5 WAR from their third baseman. Last year, they got 10.5 fWAR and 14.3 bWAR from those positions (the defensive value of Chapman and Varsho and Kiermaier was the subject of disagreement). One can believe that Ohtani makes the other players around him better, but the evidence for that is slim, to put it kindly. And if you don't believe that, the club needs more than Ohtani to be one of the best teams in the league.

I think the Jays would get more long-term value in signing Yamamoto, Lee, and another player or two, than they would in signing Ohtani for half a billion dollars.

In any event, I'm guessing Ohtani will sign with the Dodgers.

I think Yamamoto will sign with an American team. But I'm hoping the Jays will find a way (perhaps with some behind-the-scenes lobbying by Kikuchi) to acquire him.

It's logical to use $50 M per season on several players instead of just one. Sometimes, though, it's fair to ignore the logic. Splurge! It's nice to have nice things.

Andrew Friedman is said to be obsessed with Shohei Ohtani, so the L.A. Dodgers are likely the front-runners. Certainly, teams like San Francisco or Texas will make a big push. Toronto has plenty of cash to make a strong bid, too.

I predict Texas signs Ohtani as a replacement for DeGrom who will retire shortly after returning.

I suspect if Texas signs him it'll be A-Rod v2. A few years of 'wow' from Ohtani, the team sucks due to other signings that go bad, the team/fan base blames Ohtani for not making everyone else play better, he gets traded and wins a WS with the Yankees. I really hope not, but easy to see after the WS win that anyone signed this winter will be blamed for the team not repeating.

Nah, the Dodgers have to be the #1 logical destination. But for $$$ the Dodgers don't have as much potential growth by signing him as others do. They already are pushing 4 million a year in attendance and have a TV contract through 2038 so they can't gain there, only via increased ticket prices and concessions pretty much. FYI: Dodger games are lucky to reach 400k viewers for any game vs the Jays averaging more and often getting more than double that - playoff potential is scary (a record was set at 1.3 million for opening day 2013 when hopes were the highest since the 1983-1993 glory days, shattered in 2015 at 2.03 million). 2022 saw an average viewership of 896,000 viewers. Sadly those figures aren't public anymore so no 2023 numbers. Basically the Jays are worth a killing to Rogers and adding a massive name like Ohtani could help push it closer to that 2 million figure. One can only imagine if the Jays ever reach the World Series again. The highest figure ever recorded is the 2010 Olympic Men's Gold Medal Game (NHL'ers with a shot at it all) at 16.67 million viewers. The 2010 Olympics hold most of the top 20 sports records - 20th is 7.43 million (top 20 has 8 events from the 2010 Olympics, 1 women's hockey Gold Medal, 5 men's hockey, opening/closing ceremonies). The Raptors win in 2019 got 17th place with 7.88 million - I see that as a floor for a Jays WS appearance. FYI: those figures came from a Wikipedia article, but generally ones like that are fairly reliable.

Bottom line: The Jays have a lot more to gain by signing Ohtani than the 3 time 100 win Dodgers do. But in the end #1 is what Ohtani wants and if he wants to stay on the west coast of the USA then no one can beat the Dodgers, everyone is just pushing the bid up.

As to the old 'spread the cash around' theory - I HATE that way of thinking. The Jays have done it a few times (see the JPR years near the end, same with the later Ash years after Clemens was traded). Generally all it does is lock in mediocrity. You want 4+ win players wherever possible, or at least guys who could do that (Bo, Vlad, Springer, Varsho have all done it recently, Chapman last year, Kirk just shy in 2022, Biggio on pace in 19 & 20 but not enough ML games for him either year to reach it) Some kids have that potential (Schneider did 1.8 in just 141 PA = pace for 7.7 over 600 PA). Ideally you have 5+ WAR potential (Biggio 19/20 was 5.0 in 159 games, Vlad 6.7 in 2021, Bo 5.8 in 2021, Varsho 4.9 in 2022, Springer was 6.4 in 2019). Guys like that give you a shot. Ohtani, Bellinger, and Chapman are the only hitters on the market with that realistic potential. Pitchers are harder to predict but Yamamoto certainly has shown that in Japan (his 1.16 ERA last year is Bob Gibson 1968 level of insanity). Snell has reached 5 WAR but he just isn't healthy enough to be counted on (I'd take him though even with his only cracking 130 innings twice in his career - maybe the Jays medical team that did such a good job this year could help him).

Or the Jays could sign, say, 4 meh free agents likely to produce about what guys we have would and the Jays might sneak in again like they did this year.

I don’t love the “spread the money around” mindset either. That’s how the Jays ended up with players like Kendrys Morales and Randal Grichuk on multiyear contracts. But signing Yamamoto isn’t an example of this. He’s a 25-year-old superstar pitcher in Japan who looks like a strong #2 SP in the majors (he could also be a bust, of course).

Agreed Greenfrog - Yamamoto, Ohtani, Bellinger, Snell all land under 'going for it with high quality' imo. Chapman also is in that conversation. Jordan Montgomery I don't put there, nor any of the others. All nice to have guys I'm sure, but for big impact there are just 5 guys. Snell is arguable due to his injury history. Bellinger has done amazing things but, like Vlad, has just the one 'wow' year - way back in 2019 (all others 4.4 and under).

FYI: for those wondering Teoscar's peak is 3.8 WAR in (you got it) 2021. Gurriel hit his peak last season at 3.0. JD Martinez's last year that was great was 2018 at 6.7, peak since is 3.5, in the 1's each of the last 2 years which is what I found for a few other big names - at least 5 years since their last 'wow' year. They could be good role players, placeholders until kids are ready but I wouldn't sign any of them until January or February at the earliest. Jung Hoo Lee is one of the great mystery players out there - he might be a great one, or might be a total flop - this is one where a teams scouts are critical - if he is a gold glove calibre OF then you can live with a poor bat for a year or two as a 4th OF. If his 340 career average there can be a 310 or better here he could be a great 1/2 hitter or a 'wow' later in the lineup but if it drops to 270 or less then his lack of power could be a death blow to his being more than a 4th OF (he takes LOTS of walks, but with no power in the majors and without a high average teams wouldn't nibble). With luck by the time Lee is posted we'll know what the top 3 hitters are doing, or the Jays will have a very good idea if they have a shot at any of them, thus letting them decide on going for Lee hard or just kicking tires.

Morosi lists the Blue Jays as one of the dark horse teams in the Ohtani bidding, saying the Jays "are serious about pursuing Ohtani.”

Could be BS, and I doubt Ohtani wants to move to Toronto, but interesting to note.

Also David Laurila on Fangraphs today:

I’m not a big fan of free-agent and trade rumors, as they are all too often floated out there for click-bait reasons. That’s not to say some don’t have a certain amount of validity, and that said speculation won’t actually come to fruition. As much as in-the-know sources tend to be stringently tight-lipped, legitimate interest in certain players, often driven by team need, is sometimes fairly obvious.

Those things said, I’ll offer my own take — this with the caveat that I have zero inside knowledge — on the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.

The Toronto Blue Jays would be a perfect fit for the 29-year-old superstar. While many are of the belief that he would far prefer to play on the West Coast (and he very well may), Toronto is a large multi-cultural city that just so happens to have a baseball team that already possesses enough talent to win the World Series in 2024 and in seasons to follow. Moreover, Blue Jays ownership is deep-pocketed and reportedly willing to spend big. (They won’t spend to send their radio team on the road, but that’s because they don’t care about the quality of their broadcasts, not because they can’t afford to.)

Are the Blue Jays a likely destination for baseball’s most exciting and talented player? I have no idea, but Ohtani calling Ontario home makes a lot of sense.

Frog:

David grew up in Michigan and went to Northern Michigan University, which is actually north of Toronto. He likely speaks with some authority about Toronto, but, as he states, none about where Ohtani might go.

Mark Shapiro often talks about spreading the risk, which leads me to believe that spreading the money around is his preferred approach.

I might use players in the first year of arbitration also because the excess value is so great for almost all these players and the salary is not generally going to materially affect it.  I might set a limit of 3% of club payroll or something. 

For the comparable payrolls in the elite division, I chose the Yankees (duh!), the Dodgers and the Red Sox.  From 1975 (when arb began) until 2023, the Yankees had 7 player seasons in pre-arb or first year of arb with 7 bWAR+, most recently Aaron Judge's 8 WAR in 2018.  The Dodgers had 3 such seasons, most recently Walker Buehler's 7.1 WAR in 2021 (Clayton Kershaw didn't surpass 7 WAR until his 2nd year of arb).  The Fenway crew boasted 16 such player seasons, most recently Mookie Betts' 10.7 in 2018.  Betts had two seasons, Clemens had 3, Boggs had 2, Rice had 1, Lynn had 1, Pedroia had 1, Garciaparra had 1.  So, your trivia question for today is: Who had the other 5 seasons (1 player had two of them)? 

It's not really a question of risk.
They need a bat who can can score runs.
They will never be good enough defensively to win if they are just an average club offensively.
They've often relied on guys who can hit homeruns.
I don't actually remember this team ever scoring lots of runs outside of the long ball.

Belt was good, but a patient hitter who takes his walks isn't going to do it.
If they're not going to change their approach at the plate, they need to replace Chapman's 17 HR, Belt's 19 and Kiermaier's 8 and top that with another 20. That's about 65 HR that need to be found.

The Jays re-signed Rafael Lantigua ten days ago, shortly after he declared free agency. This is per the Bisons transactions page.

Oh, we are looking at post-1975.  L-C is confused!

One of the 7+ WAR Sox is a Hall of Famer (needless to say, the one who did it twice).

That eliminates Mookie and Ratboy. Must be the Chicken Man.

The Fenway crew boasted 16 such player seasons

Ah-ha. I missed the actual question. Four other Red Sox accounting for five 7 WAR seasons since 1975. Let's see....

Mike Greenwell, surely.
Youkilis?

Josh Beckett might be one.

And not Josh Beckett.

The Hall of Famer is more famous for his work for another club. 

Is Big Papi one?

How could we forget Pedro?

Not Big Papi or Pedro.  Neither had their big years in their first 4. 

Bloody sock Curt Schilling?

Not Curt Schilling.

The Hall of Famer who did it twice was a pitcher. 

The other two players were a shortstop and a centerfielder. 

The Yankees who did it were Aaron Judge, Don Mattingly, Derek Jeter twice, Brett Gardner, Ron Guidry and Andy Pettitte.  The Dodgers were Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger and Mike Piazza. 

The shortstop's big year was in 1995 at age 28 in his 3rd full season.  He hit .298 with 27 homers, 37 doubles, 81 walks and 67 strikeouts.  He stole 20 bases and was caught 5 times.   He was a fine fielding shortstop at that point in his career.  The centerfielder had a 30-30 season in 2011 and hit .300.  He never had a season remotely like it before or afterwards. 

Fun trivia question. Eck? And was one of the others Nomar?

Eckersley was the pitcher.  Nomar was mentioned in the 11 seasons I gave at the beginning. 

I have to go.  It's easy to check the answers on BBRef, knowing the year and the position.

Wow, Pedro had 2 seasons over 9 bWAR in Boston, another 9 in Montreal, an 8 and a 7 season in Boston, and another 7 for the Mets. That is nuts. 6 years of 7+ WAR in his career. Just a shame he couldn't have won a WS with the Expos in '94 - they might then have been able to keep going instead of the sad fate that club fell to. A reminder of how dumb MVP voters used to be - in 2000 Pedro had 11.7 bWAR, A-Rod 10.4 - so you had a crazy good season from a pitcher, a 'wow' year from a SS, but the MVP went to a slow, PED fueled 1B in Oakland (Jason Giambi) instead who had a lower OPS, and played 10 fewer games than Carlos Delgado that year (same position, Jays were in contention that year somewhat finishing just 4 1/2 out of the East lead, in part because their manager was dumb enough to keep Homer Bush in the field for 76 games despite a 33 OPS+ often over Grebeck who had a 94 that year after a 124 the year before). One also has to question how the heck you can be so bad at managing and have such a bad pitching coach that Carpenter could have an ERA+ of 81 and Halladay a 48 (10.64 ERA) in the same year. Talk about wasting assets!

Argh. Anytime I look back at the Ash years I get into a rant. So much potential wasted. And why? Because they kept doing stupid things over and over again. Basically the Jays of the late 90's early 00's were the Angels of the past few years - 2 HOF or near HOF talents wasted on a team that just couldn't put it together.

My guess if we're talking centerfielders would be Coco Crisp. I remember him having a brief and very good stint in Boston.

Was Jose Valentin a Red Sox as well in the mid 90s?

Wrong on both! Disregard anything I say... beyond this article of course.

I guess Jacoby Elsbury.

I think you're right on Valentine. I had to look up the leader board for SS. Havent looked up the OF yet.

Jacoby Ellsbury is correct. John Valentin was the shortstop. And I suppose that he will forever be confused with Jose Valentin, who played shortstop for the Brewers at the same time. It's a similar situation to Wally Schang and Ray Schalk, catchers in 1920, but with names that are even closer.

The 1995 MVP vote is eye-opening for young people who may not realize how far the game has come in some ways. Mo Vaughn was a sluggish slugging first baseman for the Red Sox who had a good year- 4 WAR. John Valentin put up similar offensive numbers for the Sox and was a fine fielding shortstop with decent speed- 8 WAR. Vaughan won the MVP and Valentin finished 9th. There were other players who had plausible MVP cases-Randy Johnson and Edgar Martinez from the Mariners, and Albert Belle from Cleveland. But to choose a player as MVP someone who was far from the best player on his own team? Bad.

I looked up Curt Schilling's stats and he had 7.8 WAR in his first year with the Red Sox in 2004.

That's right, Island Boy. But, he wasn't pre-arb or in the first year of his arbitration.  Schilling had been in the league for 15 years and made $12M that year.  In 2004 terms, that was a very large salary.  I was looking at pre-arb and first year of arb because the mechanics are very different than in the free agency market (for the purpose of the study I was talking about up-thread). 

WAR is a relative stat do you need to make sure you are using the same aggregator that Mike used since WAR from one publication is different from WAR from another.

Yesterday Kenta Maeda went to the Tigers.

Today, Sonny Grey is going to sign with the Cardinals. Eephus wanted him as a Blue Jay but at least he didn't sign with the Yankees.

I used Baseball Reference's WAR. Greenwell, Valentin and Ellsbury would have qualified using Fangraphs WAR. Eckersley would not have- Fangraphs starts with FIP rather than ERA, and Eckersley's FIPs were pedestrian.

Ken Rosenthal says Gray's contract is for 3/$75m. Based on what we've seen so far this off-season, the Blue Jays should be ready to spend if they want to land any good free agents.

Good points, but Gray was a bit older than Bassitt when they signed their respective contracts, and it probably would have taken more money to bring him to Canada — perhaps 3/$80m or 3/$85m.

Maybe there was a “character penalty” for Gray in the FA market as well.

I seem to recall it took an extra contractual year for Toronto to land Martin and Springer in free agency.

Same with Ryu, I think.

Leaside Cowboy now enjoys MLB network.  The pundits suggested a fantasy trade with the Mets:  Pete Alonso + Jeff McNeil in exchange for Vlad + Manoah.  No, thanks.  Meanwhile, Jon Morosi says that Toronto is a good fit for free-agent Rhys Hoskins.

I will be surprised if the Jays spend any significant money on starting pitching. I expect a depth piece.

Looks like Jason Heyward stays with the L.A. Dodgers for 1-year / $ 9 M.

What is the Jays pitch to a starting pitcher? It's either:

1. You will compete with Manoah in spring

2. We are moving Kikuchi to the bullpen

3. We are trading a starting pitcher, or

4. Here is a huge pile of cash, don't worry about anything other than that

Sonny Gray, with an A , spent 2 years in the Bronx and it wasn't pretty.
Loads of boos.

He went 4-7 with a 2.72 ERA in 2017 and followed that up with a 4.90 ERA in 2018.
I never thought a reunion could be in the cards, but at least, he didn't sign with Boston.

A club never wants to start the year with the 5th starter collecting a big paycheck.
It's not as bad as giving a huge contract to a bench player, but it's pretty close.

Mitch White is a tentative long man once again.
Francis could be pushed a bit harder. Tiedemann should start in AAA.

Beyond that, the pen has 2 lefties with Mayza and Cabrera.
Romano closes, Swanson and Green can set up.
Garcia is down to a middle reliever role and can probably be solid if not used back to back too often.
Richards  can be the short to long man if White falters again.

Other depth guys who can go multiple innings:
Pearson, Pop, Zulueta (could be really good in the pen) and Brendon Little.

Last chance for Hagen Danner to earn his spot on the 40.
Let's hope he's healthy.

Yamamoto presumably would be told that he would line up behind Gausman. Depth-signing pitcher would be told that he would be competing with Manoah and (hopefully) Bowden Francis for the 5th spot in the rotation. They probably shouldn't be looking for someone between those two-cost too much for the marginal improvement.

"What is the Jays pitch to a starting pitcher?"

5. We are trading Manoah

Good FA SPs left are Yamamoto, Stroman, Snell, E Rodriguez and Montgomery. I expect them all to get about $25mil/yr. LAD, NYY and possibly NYM should all be trying to sign 1.

Winter meetings start next Monday.

BA has a detailed writeup on Yamamoto with some interesting content (I mentioned it about a month ago) — worth a read. MLB scouts *really* like him. One interesting observation is that he elevated his game this year — and he was already really good before that. Here’s an excerpt:

“Yamamoto went 16-6, 1.21 in 23 starts for Orix this season, the lowest ERA of his career. He allowed just two home runs the entire season, the fewest of his career, and posted a 6.04 strikeout-to-walk rate, the best mark of his career.

“‘He took a step forward to being great this year,’ said one National League pro scouting director who has made multiple trips to Japan. ‘He’s got so many weapons. Pitchability is so good….This guy has power, feel, aptitude, deception. He makes it work. He’s going to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.’”

I don’t think 7 x $28m is going to be enough to land him.

I could see the Jays making it to the short list of bidders. They have some points in their favour (competitive team, respected organization, good pitching staff, Kikuchi, Pete Walker, large national fan base, multicultural city). On the other hand, they’ve never managed to reel in a Japanese star before. Now would be a great time to start.

Given #6 starters are getting $10 mil now (see Reynaldo Lopez - a solid setup man who is going to be stretched back out to be a long man/6th starter for Atlanta, signed 3 years $30 mil with an $8 mil team option for year 4), I'd think all teams with an eye to the future should be chasing Yamamoto hard for under $30 mil per over 9. The Jays, imo, should chase Yamamoto or Snell hard for a #1b slot after Gausman in the rotation, then figure out what to do about Manoah and Kikuchi - trade one or leave Manoah in AAA as plan A for any injuries (he has 2 options left) - yeah, Manoah would be royally pissed about that, but that is life. Odds are someone would be traded between him and Kikuchi then. Yeah, Stroman, E Rodriguez and Montgomery are all very good but with the starting depth here you want a potential ace or a guy you can stash in AAA. Of course, we also have White hanging around too as a 6th starter option. Not to mention prospects who could get a shot at some point in 2024 like Tiedemann and Francis.

The New York Post predicts a bidding war for Yamamoto between the Mets and Yankees, " with the opening ante expected to be around a cool $200 million. "

Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Toronto? YY to YYZ!

I am always curious as to what benefits a prospect is entitled to when he makes the ML but is unable to stick for long.

I believe D Schnieder is entitled to benefits based on arrive Aug 4 and stayed till Aug 30 and all of Sept. So not a Sept callup.

Maybe O Lopez is entitled also because he spent a bit of time on the ML bench but his game playing was very little. C Eden was a Sept callup. Sept may not count but in his very short 10 days he scored 1 run and got 1 hit.

Manoah has very little value at this point. Acquiring another starter would be like DFAing him.
Sure way to get nothing for him.
A year ago he was getting the ball for game 1 ahead of Gausman.

Have the Jays ever won a FA bidding war when there were 10+ teams heavily involved? It seems like they usually land a player when there are only a few serious suitors.

I don't think Yamamoto has to be one of the very best pitchers in baseball to be an attractive player in free agency. Because of his age, if he is durable and pitches similarly to (say a bit better than) Stroman or Gray for the next seven or eight years, he'll be well worth the $200m+ investment.

Trevor Bauer had 5 or 6 strong suitors and apparently the Jays were one of them and lost.

I couldn't agree more with the feeling that Yamamoto should be the guy to sign up long term and build out from there.

Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios and Kikuchi are set for the rotation based on last years performance. Manoah's performance last year has brought uncertainty to the #5-8 SPs. Most teams plan for 8 SPs.

So who are our 4 SPs covering #5-8? You definitely have to count Manoah and M White as the top 2 potential #5 SPs. It is very possible that one of our above mentioned top 4 gets injured or struggles. We can always hope for the unexpected bonus performances similar to Ray/Matz, Stripling and Berrios, Kikuchi, Bassitt we were lucky to get over the last 3 years. Counting/hoping for a bounce back performance from a recent 3rd place Cy Young pitcher like young Manoah is definitely a good bet IMO.

My 4 after the big 4 are Manoah, White, Francis, Tiedemann. Ideally the Jays sign 2 AAAA types to keep in reserve in Buffalo.

My perfect world is the Jays signing either Yamamoto or Snell then trading for Soto (Trade Values claims Manoah, Espinal, Zulueta, and Garcia would do it - gives them a starter, 2 relievers, and an infielder). It'd be an interesting deal that I think would help the Jays a lot in 2024 and if they sign Yamamoto too then the rotation is set in stone for 2024 and only needs 1 guy in 2025 (Tiedemann). Sets up LF for this year as a killer position too.

We saw Gausman deal with some soreness last year. The rotation on a whole overpitched last year. I would feel a lot better if there was a strong contingency plan if/when one or more of the top starters go in the IL.

Kikuchi's value is very high now, I would move him before he regresses.

Yamamoto doesn't have to be one of the best pitchers in baseball to be worth a $200 million investment, but if you are looking at $250 million or more, that is what you are hoping for.   To give an example, Sonny Gray from aged 26 to 33 has generated 20 WAR.  You might choose to spend the money another way than spending on a pitcher like a young Sonny Gray. 

I don't expect Jays to go big after any pitcher. Rotation is already solid. I think they'll try to sign one or two guys for the back end though. Guys like Paxton, Severino, Lugo, etc...Then, team can concentrate on adding bats. Tons of goodoptions at DH (Belt, Hoskins, Pederson, Turner, Martinez, Soler, etc...) A few decent ones at LF (Pham, Gurriel, Teoscar, Pederson) and almost nothing for 3B so a trade makes sense there.

Some 3B options to trade for that could easily be available:
Jorge Polanco is a switch hitter who can play 2B/3B but Twins have Julien and Lewis there who are much cheaper and also better. He's owed 1/$11 or so and team has a $12M option for next year. He would take a prospect or a player but nothing outrageous to acquire. Twins probably want a pitcher.

Nolan Gorman. The Cardinals used to be such a smart organization but last few years, instead of consolidating their prospects and trading for star players, they've mostly been signing middling players and holding on to their prospects. Not sure what the Cardinals want because they are kind of mediocre everywhere. Gorman isn't good defensively anywhere but can play 2B and 3B and can really hit.

Moncada: Owned 1/$30 (with buyout) so big negative contract so would be easy get with White Sox adding players/paying down some contract. Has been terrible and great so hard to know who he is. Last 5 years, 2 seasons with WAR over 4 and 3 seasons with WAR under 1.1.

Mike, I qualified my comparison by saying "if [Yamamoto] is durable and pitches similarly to (say a bit better than) Stroman or Gray."

I would pay 8/$250m for a 25-year-old IFA with good attributes who would perform a bit better than Gray and (unlike Gray) be a durable SP in the majors.

With respect what is a AAAA SP? Not Zach Thompson I presume. 2 of that caliber would be good IMO because they should have an option and could finally figure it out. Or a Hatch, Kay on a minor league deal so they can also give it another try. Casey Lawrence is definitely a AAAA SP because he could not stick when called up. Late signings I expect.

St Louis has signed Lynn for $11mil and Gibson I am guessing for $15mil. The S Gray signing gives them their #1 SP. That is 3 potential reliable SPs. Matz & Mikolas (200IP in 2022 & 23) is 5. Liberatore, Drew Rom and Jack Thompson are young and sort of ready. So not a shallow rotation. But not deep enough IMO. Young pitchers from all over the 2 leagues will surprise IMO. Like they always do.

To be clear, I'm not predicting that Yamamoto's ceiling is less than that of an ace or #1 starting pitcher. I'm saying that, in my view, there is a range of outcomes that would justify signing him to a large contract (from Maddux/ace at the high end, to a durable and slightly enhanced version of Gray/Stroman at the low end).

Pundits on MLBTR had the Jays taking Mahle.

I'm not sure there is anything beyond entertainment value with MLB Trade Values... There is no way Soto goes for Manoah, Espinal, Garcia, and Zulueta. That's one injured starter (with questionable makeup) plus 3 players with replacement level or worse value. But likely not even then. I doubt the Jays could get Soto without giving up Tiedemann or Bichette... The market for a Top 5 bat - even with one year remaining - is competitive.

I don't disagree, greenfrog, about the value break-point.  What makes Yamamoto attractive for the Blue Jays right now is the reasonable possibility that he could be a 5+ WAR pitcher and be a huge significant upgrade right now. If so, you end up generating 3.5- 4 wins beyond what you already have without giving up talent, and there are very few players who can do that for you.  Ohtani, Bellinger and Lee (if healthy) are the others. 

More speculation: Tamara Rainey has an article where she predicts the Jays signings: Matt Chapman 5 years/ 110 million, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 13 million/no years given, Nick Martinez 2 years/10 million and possibly Mitch Garber for DH/C no terms guessed.

Jim Bowden has a free agent prediction for each team. He had the Dodgers signing Ohtani for 10 years/417 million with incentives that could reach 500 million. He also predicts that the Jays will sign Chapman for 6 years/127 million.

Personally I would be leary of signing Chapman to a 5 or 6 year deal. He would be blocking some of the prospects coming up and would surely regress over the course of the deal.

I get wanting Chapman back as a good option, I just don't think he's the kind of guy you give significant money to. Steamer has him at a 103 WRC+ with pretty good D next year and I think that's accurate and a slight decline every year. I'd expect the next four years to be something like 2.5 WAR, 2 WAR, 1.5 WAR, 1 WAR and declining from there. I just wouldn't be interested in a long-term contract that wasn't a steal.

Not a fan of signing Chapman for 5 or 6 years.

Its great watching him fire 95 mph fastballs over to first, but his defense will decline. He bat has too many holes in it.

I'd prefer Urshela. Maybe he has a good Gio year (his good years and bad years seem to alternate). At worst, he is a fill in until a prospect or two runs over him.

They may also want to take a look at Nick Senzel. Presumably cheap after being non tendered. Hit lefties well last year can play 3B and OF. He might find his footing with a new team.

A minor point, but still a consideration, is the draft pick they potentially lose if they sign Chapman (qualifying offer).

Mike, that is a good point. The only thing I would add is that adding Yamamoto would likely also bolster the team's fortunes beyond 2024-2025. I believe the team wants to be a perennial contender and Yamamoto would be helpful on that front. The Blue Jays front office has not been good at developing its own starting pitching (look at the rotation that was in place at the end of last year--no homegrown pitchers).

Chapman would be nice to keep if the Jays don't feel any of their kids are ready for prime time yet at 3B (Rafael Lantigua, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger). All 3 had lots of time at 3B, SS, 2B, with Barger moving mostly to RF, Martinez to 2B and Lantigua left at 3B (but tons of time in LF/RF/2B/SS, 30+ starts at 3B/LF, 20+ at SS, 12 in RF, 5 in CF). It is an interesting situation. Mix in Biggio, Espinal, and Schneider as options too. But the Jays seem determined to hold onto Chapman which makes me wonder if they have little confidence in any of those guys being solid at 3B.

Seems Chapman's asking price is $150 mil over 5-6 years, which makes me nervous as 3B don't normally age well (thus why so few in the HOF vs other positions). A 5 year covers age 31-35. BR has Carlos Santana as his #1 comparison through age 30 (from 31-35 he had a 108 OPS+, 10.9 bWAR, dragged down by defense which I doubt would happen to Chapman). #2 is Todd Frazier (98 OPS+ over those years, 7.5 bWAR), then comparisons get very weak with #5 being Ed Sprague (a worst case - done at 33 0.7 bWAR from 31 on, but had just one year of 3+ WAR in his career), #6 Jose Bautista (has to be best case, except staying at 3B vs going to RF - 21.2 bWAR ages 31-35, FYI: by 30 Jose had his 50 HR season and just finished his 182 OPS+ season). No HOF'ers on his list which is never a good sign at 30 if you are debating a big deal like this.

If the Jays could get him for 5/$110 then yeah, sign him. But I wouldn't plan on more than 10 bWAR from him going forward if I was betting my own money on it. His core value has always been defense so moving him to 1B/LF/RF/DH isn't a practical option imo (lifetime 117 OPS+ - same as Vlad had in 2023, his off year).

I agree about that too, greenfrog.  The pitching outlook from 2025 isn't exactly overwhelming.  Yamamoto is a piece that you can build upon, in my view.  Generally I prefer position players for those roles because they are more likely to sustain performance in a predictable way, but I'd make an exception in his case. 

Eno Sarris had an interesting tweet about Jung-hoo Lee and his statcast comparisons to Kim:

Ha-Seong Kim, 2020 in KBO for Kiwoom
90.1 average EV
13 Launch Angle
50.4% >95mph
108.9 max EV

Jung-hoo Lee, 2022 (healthy season) in KBO for Kiwoom
88.7 ave EV
12.3 LA
37.7% >95mph
107.0 max EV

The idealist in me wants to believe the Jays are going to make a real effort to sign Ohtani or Yamamoto, as those moves make excellent sense for the organization. My inner cynic thinks the Jays are letting it be known that they’re “pursuing” these players, without any real expectation of signing them (for purposes of impression-management with their fans).

Lee is more in the Tony Gwynn/Luis Arraez vein. He's not likely to hit 20 homers in MLB. Arraez' avg. exit velo this year was 88.3 and his max was 104. Arraez hit 10 homers this past year. I think will do a little better than that, if healthy. Slightly higher launch angle than Arraez and more pulling the ball in the air. He does not have centerfield power.

but the renos.

"The idealist in me wants to believe the Jays are going to make a real effort to sign Ohtani or Yamamoto, as those moves make excellent sense for the organization. My inner cynic thinks the Jays are letting it be known that they’re “pursuing” these players, without any real expectation of signing them (for purposes of impression-management with their fans)."

There is another reality. They could be making a real effort, and offer the most money, but could be shut down at any stage of the process by Ohtani.

The Jays have offered the most before and been turned down.

The guy is going to make half a billion dollars, plus endorsements, plus everything else. Money is not likely to be the issue. It will be all the other stuff. If he wants to be a Hollywood star, likes palm trees, has an estate picked out in Georgia, has always dreamed of wearing pin stripes like Babe Ruth, hates bagged milk or whatever, the Jays are just not going to get very far.

I mean there are a dozen teams that you would say have no chance based on geography or city. Like he is not going to the Rays no matter how much money they offer, despite the fact they are a winning organization.

We think otherwise as we think Toronto is swell. Surprisingly many in the world don't agree.

Longenhagen on Fangraphs has this to say about Yamamoto (he's posted a 4-min video of him as well):

A mainstay at or near the very top of this player category since 2021, Yamamoto has been the best pitcher in Japan for the last several seasons and he's a virtual lock to be an impact MLB starter from the second he ties his spikes on our shores. In his walk year with Orix, he produced two more WAR than the next best NPB pitcher (Roki Sasaki) even though Yamamoto threw 30 fewer innings (164) than he had in each of the last two seasons. He produced his third consecutive season with a sub-2.00 ERA, as well as a sterling 26.6% K%, 4.4% BB%, 53% GB%, a microscopic 1% HR/FB% and a career-best 1.74 FIP. A plus-plus on-mound athlete with mid-90s arm strength, Yamamoto locates virtually all of his pitches at will and walked just 28 batters across 164 innings in 2023. His mid-90s fastball (he averaged 95 mph but peaks in the 97-99 mph range) enjoys substantial in-zone whiff utility thanks to his velo, the rise/run shape and shallow angle of his heater, and Yamamoto's feel for locating it in the top third of the zone and above. After several consecutive seasons of decline, Yamamoto showed an uptick in two-seamer usage in 2023, though his groundball rate dropped four percentage points compared to prior years. His four-seamer pairs nicely with a nasty, old school, upper-70s curveball, which Yamamoto uses to both get ahead of and finish hitters. A low-90s splitter is his best pitch and most-deployed secondary weapon. It has exceptional bat-missing drop and doesn't need to be located precisely in order to play. A more pedestrian slider/cutter, which lives off of Yamamoto's consistent glove-side command, rounds out his repertoire.

Inextricably linked to Japanese pitching prospects are questions about how they'll respond to a potential change in routine (a start once every five days instead of once a week) and how their breaking stuff will play upon transition to the lower-seamed MLB baseball. While these apply to Yamamoto, it's plausible an MLB team will parlay his combination of arm strength and feel for spin into a better hard slider, or variant thereof, so there is also some "good variance" around the way I'm projecting Yamamoto's breaking ball(s) here. The entire package is very reminiscent of peak Zack Greinke, as Yamamoto's frame, delivery, stuff quality and command are all of that ilk.

Atkins spoke to the media yesterday. Much was not clear enough to bank on except he was quite clear that a good option was to deal a SP. Manoah seems safe because he was referred to as being more than the #5.

I had to read that 3 times to understand what it might mean.

Shi Davidi suggests "  it’s best to run his comments through an Atkins-to-English dictionary. "

BA have published their top 10 prospects. I started a separate thread to discuss.

I am not one to criticize management, but the GM speak is off putting.

On one hand it is understandable that he is going to be going to be coy when discussing potential transactions.

On the other, the baffle-speak language comes so easy to him, I am concerned that is how he thinks, or that he thinks he sounds smarter for it.

If this wasn't the norm I would be bothered. Have you guys/gals seen other organizations and how they handle conferences, problems, company statements etc? Baffling is the norm and seems to be by design.

Just look at the Chicago Blackhawks. An organization that went through a sexual misconduct controversy in which the organization lied about the whole thing and covered it up. A year or two later and now there is another issue from the same team and nobody knows what the reason is for one player being terminated without explanation. The team says "it's wrong to assume anything," before they give a bunch of things that did not cause the termination and conclude that they can't say more... If that organization doesn't feel compelled to be 100% transparent in the face of what they just went through a few years ago then I think it says everything about how teams and businesses are conducting themselves.

With Atkins he tries to get cute. Instead of just saying he won't address something he instead decides to say everything he can to a) pretend he wants to address it or b) is actually addressing it or c) does neither of a) or b) and just leaves impression to reader/listener that he avoided the question and turned it into a positive about something else in the vicinity of the topic which does not equate to the crux of the question/inquiry. Equation = Atkins is an idiot with big words and enough attention to string together concepts and terms just enough to make tangents appear as "answers."

Word, LC. It is possible to speak diplomatically and non-comittally without resorting to bafflegab.

So I misinterpreted about trading a SP?

My concern is about the real-world impacts of the bafflegab. Did it lead to confusion about the chain of command and on-field decision-making in 2023? Does it deter potential staff or free agents from signing with Toronto?

I suspect he is open, but only to trading Kikuchi or minor leaguers. Manoah has Cy potential so you want to hold him unless someone offers value based on his potential. IMO it means he is chasing top starters hoping for a multi-year commitment so we don't end up short post 2024.

Well, Atkins is excited by Mitch White apparently so that makes one of us. Atkin's bafflegab is what politicians do - say a lot without ever answering the question. I've heard Leaf's GM Jim Treliving, and before that, Kyle Dubas, a speak multiple times and, unlike listening to Atkins, I've never thought afterwards," What the hell did he just say?"

Ben Wagner has been dropped from the radio broadcast. I am not sure why although I always thought he was average in the job.

I would bet that Shulman junior gets the job. He seemed decent when I heard him last season, he is Canadian, and I assume cheaper than Wagner.

The weird thing about Atkins being so bad at speaking to the media is that his mentor Shapiro is quite good at it.

Like most roster decisions, I’m sure any thought of trading Kikuchi is on hold until the Ohtani sweepstakes are resolved. It’s possible playing with Kikuchi is a plus for Ohtani (however small it may be), and they’re not going to throw that chip away.

A low-90s splitter is his best pitch and most-deployed secondary weapon.

All Japanese pitchers throw the splitter but they use a smaller ball and not all of them are able to throw it with an MLB ball. Kikuchi's, for example, is not great. Tanaka had 7 great years with the Yankees, pretty much on the strength of his splitter. However, Tanaka is 6'3" and Yamamoto is 5'10", so I see a risk there.
(Kikuchi is an even 6' tall.)

Atkins said that he can't say much about free agents.

He said that Varsho should be in center and I agree. That  should be his position, not left field.

He said that they have enough depth at third base and left field to focus on other positions if they can.
Sure, sign Hichiro and nobody will care who plays at 3rd and LF.

Manoah wants to go back to being an All-Star and seems to be training towards that.
So, not trading Manoah because he's cheap and could be great again, but not closing the door on signing a starter--which would force them to trade a starter. I assume that would come to be if they can trade a starter for a position player who fills a hole. A complicated scenario.

Not trading Bichette.Why would they?

"I've heard Leaf's GM Jim Treliving, and before that, Kyle Dubas, a speak multiple times and, unlike listening to Atkins, I've never thought afterwards," What the hell did he just say?""

Meh. Dubas is clear and articulate but what's the substance of what he says?


Reporter: Do you have any plans on how to address the elephant in the room regarding your top 4 players who have underperformed in every playoff series they have ever participated in and how do you plan to improve for next year?


Kyle Dubas: "It's been a really taxing year on my family and that's really important to me. Now I'll open up the conversation for questions."


If you watch his end of season presser I would argue it's even worse than Atkins.

"The goal is the same but the path has to change."

"From what I've seen from Sheldon, I felt that Sheldon and his staff made adjustments that put our group in positions to capitalize."

"In game 3 we had 5 odd man rushes based on the coaches changes. If those adjustments weren't happening I would be more down on him. To do an analysis on his performance right now would be hasty."

"I need to have a full family discussion before I commit to anything without having a fuller understanding."


The bullshit-meter is still hitting high marks if through a more "genuine" feeling conference. To conclude, my favourite:

On the question of if he wants to remain GM of the Leafs, "I definitely don't have it in me to go anywhere else. So it will either be here or taking time to reflect. You won't see me next week pop up elsewhere. I can't put them (his players) through that after this year."

That was May 15th and less than 2 weeks later he was wining and dining before being hired by Pittsburgh on June 1st. Family first...it was taxing in Toronto so let me uproot my family and move them to a different country....

Just a comment on the move in the radio booth...

I felt Wagner was too over the top in his delivery, especially after a home run. He also had an annoying habit of describing the action in great detail, except the most important parts of the action (at least if you're listening on radio) which is the count, the inning, and the score.

The worst I remember for bafflegab wasn't a GM - it was John Farrell. The way he spoke triggered my inner Inigo Montoya, "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." By that standard, Atkins is a clear and concise communicator.

Seems odd to say 3B/LF are not to worry spots. I guess at 3B you'd have Biggio/Espinal and any kids who can handle it (Martinez & Barger seem not to given they have moved more or less to 2B/RF respectively). LF is probably Schneider as I don't think the Jays liked his defense at 2B for some reason (seemed OK based on stats) mixed with anyone they sign. That would mean all the focus is on DH and 2B (unless they resign Chapman - shifts Biggo/Espinal back to 2B). Beginning to seem like they are putting a lot of eggs into the Ohtani basket, which at best is a 1 in 3 shot, probably more like a 1 in 10 shot right now. Jays have moved up to 2nd in online betting on it but I don't want to keep my hopes up too high.

Seems like the Jays view Orelvis as a 2B now, which does make the interest in bringing Chapman back or signing Candelario a bit more understandable. I don't see a legit 3B option in the minors that is close if Orelvis isn't seen as the answer there. If they sign Ohtani (which I don't think will happen but hypothetically speaking), then that makes it a bit easier to try to cheaply piece together 3B for the short term, but failing that, I do expect them to end up with one of Chapman or (more likely) Candelario. There just aren't many options there.

I think Martinez is more likely to be included in a big trade.

Joey Wendle was available? He would have been perfect for the Jays.

Looks like the hottest rumour is Snell signing with the Mariners and one of their young pitchers being shipped out for a bat. That's a good move the Jays should try emulating...if it happens of course.

You must be looking at a Joey Wendle card that ends with his 2021 stats. He'd be a second-stringer on the Buffalo Bisons, it's shocking he got a major league deal.

Wendle will probably be a bench player for 2M. They also picked up Severino for 13M.
They look more like a rebuilding club signing bounce back potential guys whom they could trade before August.

The Mariners GM loves making trade.
They're likely to to make some trades no matter what.
It's a team that just missed the playoffs.
They share the division with 2 powerhouses and 2 bad teams.
As they stand, Urias is at 3B, Cade Marlowe isin LF, Josh Rojas is at 2B and the DH is Dominic Canzone.
Meh.

They have a good rotation but the bullpen isn't deep.
Also, they need to factor Robbie Ray somewhere.

Definitely agree with scottt about the Mariners. Their rotation is very, very deep. L Castillo, L Gilbert, G Kirby, Ray & Marco Gonzales both at some point, B Miller, B Woo and E Hancock are young and have already played at the ML level. I don't know if Seattle is a pitcher friendly park.

The Mariners O is the big problem. IMO they had a successful 2023 because they were competing for a playoff spot until the last series of the season. Every team will accept that performance I believe except maybe the NYY in the AL.

Last year they struck early by getting Teo for a reliever and a pitching prospect that was not high on their prospect list. I hear the rumor that Snell may go to the Mariners. The Mariners may be one of the stars of the off season.

I've seen reports that the Rays are shopping Randy Arozarena.

Looking forward to raising the "Ohtani Runners-Up" banner.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Arozarena could be a fit in LF. Atkins likes controllable players. No idea what kind of return Tampa would seek. Re-build the Barrio?

Glasnow is obviously the guy the Rays need to trade to balance their budget.
He's making 25M this year.
However, the free agent market is loaded with pitchers, the Mets are signing discount players and many teams already have set rotation. What people are looking for are young controllable starters.
The Marlins have 2 or 3 of those for grab.

Who knows what they will do. It's the Rays.
Arozarena is projected to make around 9M in arbitration.
Margot is signed for 10M, Brandon Lowe for 8.75M, Yandy Diaz for 8M and Zach Elfin for 11M, but 18M in 25.
And who knows what's the situation with Franco.

Holy sheets, Shohei to Blue Jays is picking up steam!

I'd be super careful about trading with the Rays - they are known for steals so Atkins should be very very careful if he does a deal there.

Without adding any player of significance (spend $15mil) and call it a day can the Jays still be in contention for a playoff spot until the last series of the season? The probable goal I expect. If this is the outcome then everyone is reasonably content.

What does the FO think of this? 1) Without a long term expensive contract then the payroll is not compromised going forward. 2) No big trade means we keep all our good prospects (top 10). 3) We scramble at the deadline (as usual) to slightly Hicks) or significantly (Berrios) improve the team.

Well, the Golden Bachelor is off the market.  Ohtani still available.

"I'd be super careful about trading with the Rays - they are known for steals"

Yes, and that's why it's good to have trade talks with them.

Rumors are that the Rays will try to trade T Glasnow. Don't know if he is worth $25 mil for 2024.

I don't see much surplus value for Glasnow.
They could probably get more if they can hold on to him until the deadline.

They have 3 positions players (all infielders) in the top 100 who could get more playing time.
They can always plug one of them in LF.

I think I would rather Ohtani DH than attempt to become a first baseman at this stage of his career. The position change is not worth the injury risk.

In any event, the bigger question is, is a player with that upside and those risks worth a $550-600m contract?

Maybe the answer is yes, if you’re the Blue Jays front office and you desperately need to put together winning seasons and expand the revenue base in 2024-25.

In addition to the elbow issues, I think he had an oblique injury in 2023.

Of course, we all still want him to come to Toronto. But there are red flags.

Interestingly, Tyler Heineman has been claimed off waivers by the Mets.

He played some outfield at 18, (about 56 games) but I wouldn't try that until his arm his completely healed.
Maybe he could still pitch in relief with a couple of days of rest in between outings, even if he can't start again.
That's still a free reliever, which is pretty valuable. 

To lure Othani, I'd go with a massively front loaded contract with opt out every year.
Nothing to lose.
Does anybody regret those 2 years A.J. Burnett pitched in Toronto?

That's true.  Ohtani's season ended with the oblique injury.  Definitely you want a discount for that.  The oblique injury could be more damaging to his long-term offensive prospects that the UCL.The caveats are well-taken. 

Let’s say the final number is $530m. Does Ohtani genuinely want to come to Toronto, or is his agent using the Jays as a means of extracting that amount from another team like the Dodgers?

Another aspect of the negotiations is whether Ohtani wants to pitch for a few more years. You can’t sign him for $500m+ on that understanding and then prohibit him from getting on the mound.

Some other benefits of signing Ohtani could include:

-Future Japanese players (like Darvish, Tanaka, Yamamoto) being more open to coming to Toronto

-Huge increase in interest in the Jays in Canada and globally (along with higher, perhaps significantly higher, revenues for Rogers)

-Significant improvement in the team's chances of making and going deep in the postseason in 2024-25

One more benefit, for me at least

-No longer having to endure the constant "Always the FA bridesmaids" posts.

Upgrading at DH incidentally tends to be cheaper than at other positions, from my recollection (I wonder if there are studies).  There tend to be more Mike Napolis and Brandon Belts which drives the price down a bit at the medium level of ability.

Maybe the best plan would be to use Ohtani as a DH through his 30s, and also let him pitch for a few more years (say 2025-27, throwing around 120-160 IP per year), and hope that he stays healthy enough to be productive in both roles. He's a career 146 wRC+ hitter, and much better than that in 2023, so maybe he can be around a 140 wRC+ hitter for at least the next few years.

His next contract will likely be a significant overpay in terms of on-field value, but the signing could still make sense in the larger context of generating additional revenue and fan interest.

The bridesmaids posts are annoying. Us geezers remember when the Jays were no-mans land for free agents in the 80's. One guy in particular (Storm Davis) said he was thinking of signing until the Montreal Massacre when his wife saw it on TV and said something to the effect of not wanting to live with all those French people. Sigh. I felt it should've ended with the signing of Jack Morris (seen as the top free agent in 1991-1992), then Dave Winfield, then the next winter Dave Stewart and Paul Molitor. Then during the dark years Roger Clemens signed here with the hidden 'trade me if asked' clause. Mix in other signings like the past few offseasons (Ryu, Gausman, Springer, Bassitt) and it is clear the Jays no longer are the team of last resort for free agents, if they ever were. Places like Pittsburgh, KC, and the like are lower on the list for most free agents I'd think (poorly run teams, low budgets, low hope of anything but a paycheque).

Yeah, the Heineman news came out of the blue. Nobody noticed he was even put on waivers.

That's an interesting timing. The 40 roster is now at 37 with the rule 5 draft coming up next week.

He could be back on waivers before the season starts but the Jays are picking pretty late, so they will probably have to sign a vet to a minor contract.

2024 could be the year Jansen stays off the IL but I wouldn't bank on that.

I can't see Othani wanting to play 10 years in Toronto, but being on a contending team with the ability to jump ship whenever he feels like it could be appealing.

The Jays have certainly landed some significant free agents in recent years, with most of those contracts (like Bassitt, Ryu, Gausman) landing in the $63m-$110m range, with Springer the outlier at 6/$150m.

Are any of those contracts in the Seager / Semien / Cole / Turner / Judge range? No.

Have the Jays ever landed any significant Japanese free agents (like Ichiro, Darvish, Tanaka)? No.

But it's an improvement and that should be acknowledged. And it's extremely encouraging that the Jays seem to be a real bidder for Ohtani this off-season.

Probably the main reason why they haven't been to the World Series in over three decades is because the farm system has fallen off in recent years. And possibly because some of the coaching has been substandard over the last few years (just a hypothesis).

The city of Toronto is probably the most attractive city in Canada if you're a free agent athlete. In Canada and the US Toronto might crack the top 10. I'd rather be in SF, Miami, NYC, Chicago, Los Angeles, Orange County or San Diego. Considering NY, LA, CHI have two teams...Toronto barely cracks the top 10 and I'm not including BOS.

The reality is the Jays have done sell signing free agents since Beeston was replaced by Shapiro. They have also been in on bigger free agents like Seager, Verlander, Bauer and Freeman who all chose one of 20 other teams that are bigger, nicer to live in and is where they all are accustomed to living (including Freeman who moved to the US a long time ago.)

I prefer to see the signings they have done and the "aftermath" comments by athletes and agents describing them as consistent finalists or #2's for top free agents. This is a good indicator compared to simply seeing who they actually ended up signing since it's the player who gets final say.

It's not fair to grade this FO on their signed free agents without at least acknowledging the barrier and handicap that they have compared to the other top 10 cities and teams in the league.

Back in the day, I'd be lying in bed awake until 2 or 3am waiting for news to drop this time of year. Did I get old or did Boras kill some of the excitement of the winter meetings by holding up the market on key dominos?

Both.

But I did too, so what can you do? Better than the alternative.

Gonna shift gears a minute. I heard David Ortiz talking about Vlad. Call me gullible but I'm back on board the Vladdy band wagon. He's 24 and if they can extend him and he can reach his potential, oh boy.

What do we know, maybe management wants to sign Ohtani, resign Vlad (and develop him) and then trade Bo for a haul next year. Here's where I'm at:


Vlad has gone on record to say he wants to sign long term.

Bo appears to be going straight to free agency.

Ownership and Shapiro clearly have interest to add another big bat.

If they can sign a big bat, go for it in '24 then trade Bo for prospects ot would serve their states intentions from beginning to contend while having "waves" of prospects.

If this is all true then they're basically all in on Shohei and Plan B would presumably be a Soto trade which isnt ideal since you lose prospects instead of $$$. Plan C is signing 5-6 WAR via 2-3 player signings. Similar to last year.

The more I think about it, the more I am open to a Bichette trade regardless of who they sign/trade for. He wants to test free agency and he’s going to want a $250-300M contract. There’s just too much risk in his profile for that type of money/term. If there is a way to turn him into 2-3 pieces that can help in 2024-25 and beyond, then it would be smart to at least pursue it. Hypothetically they could trade Bo for the best package they can get, and then pursue someone like Kim or Adames in a trade to fill SS in 2024. If you want to build something sustainable beyond 2025 then you either have to extend or trade Bo/Vlad, and Bo clearly has the higher value and is the least likely of the two to re-sign. If they actually succeed in signing Ohtani then trading Bo might be more advantageous as there would be a greater need for cost effective players on the roster if one player is making $50M plus.

L-C believes in Vlad, too.  As both a hitter and 1st baseman.

I'm agvlastic.

With Ohtani being Japanese as opposed to American, it's possible the allure of US cities is not necessarily there. And he's a private guy. You couldn't pay me to live in the US... heck he could get a really nice place in Vancouver on the west coast and also maintain a home in Toronto.

Atkins said during the week that the Jays could trade for rentals. I don't think that is a surprise. As I have said a couple of times, Atkins is on thin ice and he doesn't care about prospects who are not useful in 2024.

Now there is a report that the Jays are the favourites to land Juan Soto after the Yankees didn't want to give the Padres the prospect package they were looking for.

I know flags fly forever but this is a high risk, short term, strategy.

Hector Gomez says jays are favorites to get Soto

https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1731070093256257880?t=hgL0v2XYsDauF5blzoz_gA&s=19

Boras seems to respect the Jays organization. Would he broker discussions about a long-term deal to facilitate a trade, a la Mookie Betts and LAD?

A Soto potential contract was discussed on the MLBTR podcast this week. Given Soto's age, 25, and how he will hit free agency at 26, as far as I remember they were talking of a 15 year, $500M contract.

Would you go for that?

Without hesitation.

I'd do a deal for something like Manoah, Pearson, Barger and Horwitz - 4 near MLB ready players, which the Padres want. Maybe throw Espinal in too. Assuming everyone can pass physicals.

And maybe the Jays can get Homer Bush Jr. also :)

But keep Tiedemann and Martinez.

Getting more aggressive on Soto might suggest the Jays are getting less confident in Ohtani.

The irony of the Jays willing to trade for rentals because Atkins is on thin ice ala AA in 2015 when he was on thin ice and Shapiro reportedly blasted him for trading away prospects.

Not really the same thing.
Soto would be for one year, not 2 months.
The Jays had no rotation to start 2016, except Stroman and Dickie.
Heck, their best reliever after Osuna was Biagini whom they picked up on the Rule 5, followed by Jason Grilli whom they ditched out of nowhere.

Carrera, Darwin Barney, Ryan Goins, B.J. Upton, Josh Thole, Junior Lake, Darrell Ceciliani. (Chris Colabello before he hit the fan). So little depth.

Imagine the antics of Vladdy and Soto hitting back to back!

I'd sign him to that contract no hesitation. I'm more confident of Soto than Ohtani.

This is nothing like AA, nice try. First, they already have a contending team that's really good, not an average team like Beeston and AA assembled. Second, for the hundredth time, AA made the moves AFTER being notified he was not retaining his position due to lack of confidence from the ownership group. Finally, do you really think Atkins calls these shots? No? So it's Shapiro...does he strike you as a guy on the hot seat? When you're on the hot seat you don't get ownership to sign off on half a billion dollar player acquisitions...


I rest my case....

The idea that they would let AA trade away all their prospects after letting him go always struck me as funny

Juan Soto was frozen in carbonite and taken by the bounty-hunter Bo Bichette.

Ugly, AA's boss was also not being renewed so who was going to stop them? Do you really think Edward Rogers would get involved and prevent them from trading two big prospects for David Price and Tulo while also getting Reyes off the books?

"prevent them from trading two big prospects for David Price and Tulo while also getting Reyes off the books?"

So you're saying those were goos trades. Especially given those prospects were busts.

Has anybody anywhere ever said otherwise? They were amazing trades that seriously lowered the strength of the farm but transformed the organization. Its the reason AA is so beloved. Nobody's ever said they were bad trades. People have said that it gutted the farm.

I am hoping to hear AA talk at the winter meetings. I like hearing him.

Well, I'm going to sleep. Happy Winter Meetings!

Will this be one of the most important Blue Jays weekends in an offseason, ever? Will this weekend see the biggest free agent signing ever happen (in all sports)?

Your Blue Jays are front and center.

Man, some you people need to get back to reality. Ohtani + Soto + some other big name is simply an impossibility.

Atkins said Rogers would allow them to be "nimble". The choice of that word implies being careful.

They are not going into $300 million territory.

They MIGHT get one big name. If its Ohtani, you can expect it will guaranteed for a year, as his contract will have an opt out every year.

I've been having fun dreaming of the impossible lineup (Springer-Ohtani-Bo-Soto-Vlad) which would slaughter WAMCO but really, I suspect the Jays are setting up a 'if we don't get Ohtani, we get Soto instead' situation. They NEED that big LH hitter who'll be between Bo & Vlad. Ohtani costs cash only (a truckload), Soto will be prospects & cash if you want multiple years.

What prospects will it be? I suspect Tiedemann is the core. Risky, but he only has 140 2/3 IP between regular season and Fall League over 3 years, 37 starts = 3.8 IP per start (4.5 in the fall league this year, under 3 IP per game during the regular season). I'm beginning to fear he might be a reliever only. But he has the potential to be an ace too which is why he would be the centerpiece of a deal. Of course the last guy everyone was super-high on was Austin Martin and we all thought the Jays grossly overpaid for Berrios by using him (and Simeon Woods Richardson) in a trade. Ends up they didn't overpay unless something big changes for one of those 2 guys soon. SWR has -0.2 bWAR so far (2 ML games) and had a 4.81 ERA last year in AAA with horrid stats (4.8 BB/9 7.6 K/9) for that league. Under a K per inning and you are below average and this kid was way over that as a Jay (13 range). Martin has yet to get an 800 OPS at any level and is entering his age 25 season so the clock is ticking loudly.

Prospects are great to have, but the Jays are in a win NOW time (2 years of Bo & Vlad left) so it is time for crazy big risks. Trade anything you got for Soto and sign him long term and you're set with a HOF'er in LF for his prime years, fail to sign him long term and you get one dice roll at a title with him. We'll see what the Jays do. San Diego was key to the 2 WS in the 90's with THE TRADE, maybe they can be again.

* LF Soto
* SS Bichette
* DH Ohtani
* 1B Guerrero
* RF Springer
* C Kirk/Jansen
* 3B Biggio/Espinal
* 2B Schneider/Espinal/Biggio
* CF Varsho


looks sold. let's go.

"Nobody's ever said they were bad trades."

wait a sec...what now?

Ducey,

Two posters have said "can you imagine if..."

We're all excited at the prospect lf this FO getting one of either player not both.

NYY have to get 1 of Ohtani, Soto or Bellinger IMO. That is the big bat they need . They need a good SP as well. This will help them improve enough to simply compete for a playoff spot.

Ohtani will get a long and expensive contract as everyone knows. Stanton got a long and expensive contract. Cashman said Stanton will get injured as usual at some time in 2024. Then had to retract his words. IMO that was frustration and possibly fear speaking. Does Cashman feel secure? An ageing player declining is expected by everyone.

I would like to see Seattle get Soto which would mean that the 2 biggest traders did business. Finally.

Ohtani to LAD has always been mostly expected. Any where elso would be very interesting.

Hardly any talk about Teo. He just turned 31 in Oct. 3-5 year contract is reasonably possible. OF/DH and possibly 1B. His power bat will cover a hole in the lineup. This will allow time to sort out our power prospects for breaking into the lineup.

Remaining O holes in the lineup are CF Varsho who should play full time, 2B & 3B which will be a contest at some time in 2024. Our 3rd C is a problem.

I, like others, see a potential Soto trade as a quick pivot if Ohtani signs elsewhere. Either scenario is an expensive risk (in Soto's case, prospects and money and in Shohei's case, a whole wack of money).

I can't help but wonder why this route wasn't taken last season. If people can recall, I pounded the drum for the Jays to be as aggressive after the big fish as they appear to be this hotstove, reasoning that the core as constituted was not championship caliber, nor would it be if simple marginal moves (which ended up being the case) were made. Now, would opening the vault to sign DeGrom, Turner, Correa, or a few of the other potential elite players led to 97 wins and a deep playoff run last year? Hard to guess. But it sure is nice to see that desperation has apparently focused the mind of the Jays front office. This team was never a Kevin Kiermaier, a Brandon Belt or even a Chris Bassitt away from being considered a championship contender, and we should have never been led to believe otherwise. It was never about discipline or home run jackets or bad baserunning. It was a lack of proven talent and production, period.

Hopefully the coming days bring us the positive result of the Jays braintrust pulling out all the stops to bring star players in their prime to Toronto, once again.

It sounds as if the crop of FAs was much better the last couple of off-seasons than it is this off-season. There is going to be intense competition for the small group of elite FAs this off-season.

I'm seeing the current Jays goals (via rumor mill) as...

1. Sign Ohtani (then cheap spare parts for anything else)
2. Trade for Soto (then try to sign him long term)
3. Resign Chapman (then see if other solid players can be signed for LF/DH)
4. Sign Bellinger (thought he was higher but no rumors around him in a long time so pushed down)
5. Jeimer Candelario for 3B/DH (cheaper option)
6. Jung Hoo Lee for LF (seems low on their list right now)
7. Bring back Teoscar if he'd play LF/DH, if not then maybe Gurriel (yeah, free agent options are limited this winter)

Not a lot of great options after the first 4. All downgrades from 2023 imo after the big 4 (Lee has potential but being from Korea is a big crapshoot). The great pitchers out there (Yamamoto, Snell, Stroman) are expensive and I suspect the Jays will be in touch but more on a 'just in case break glass' situation. I suspect for pitching they'll keep an eye on the higher end starters and if one has trouble signing (ala Semien a few years ago) the Jays would jump in and figure out how to fit it together (probably a trade of Kikuchi or Manoah).

I agree with the Jays 1/2 options, I get wanting Chapman back, and Bellinger could be nice in LF but the rest of the options drop quickly and might not be better than just using Biggio/Espinal at 3B, Schneider at 2B, and hunting down bargain bin guys for LF, DH being a rotation of whoever needs a semi day off. Ideally they get someone for 3B so Biggio/Espinal/Schneider can fight over 2B/LF with the kids in AAA and a cheap free agent or two.

So my ideal is signing Ohtani, sign Gio Urshela or Justin Turner for 3B, and find a decent player with some holes for LF (ie: bad fielder or can't hit RHP or can't hit LHP but does something really well - ala signing Kiermaier last winter, maybe Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley) or trading for someone who isn't a massive star but solid and too expensive for his team (IE: someone in arbitration years with KC, Oakland, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Colorado or who signed a too big contract with one of them) thus cheap to acquire. Then if any kids earn LF or 2B they can take it over, same for 3B. Part of why I like Urshela - he can be moved anywhere depending on who is doing well/not doing well without being an embarrassment with the bat or glove. Then if Manoah is making them nervous (poor offseason routine) they can sign whichever decent starter is still on the market, if Manoah is doing well though we could have a killer rotation in 2024.

The HOF vote will be out soon. Like most here I'd love Cito to get in but bet against it.

Lets do a comparison...

Cito Gaston - 894-837 4 playoff appearances, 2 WS title - 18-16 playoff record
Lou Pinella - 1835-1713 7 playoff appearances, 1 WS title - 23-27 playoff record
Jim Leyland - 1769-1728 8 playoff appearances, 1 WS title - 44-40 playoff record
Davey Johnson - 1372-1071 6 playoff appearances, 1 WS title - 25-26 playoff record

The other 3 all had much longer careers but were they much better? W-L record in the extra games
LP vs CG: 941-876 (84 win season equivalent) 3 extra playoff appearances, 5-11 playoffs
JL vs CG: 875-891 (80 win equivalent) 4 extra playoff appearances, 26-24 playoffs
DJ vs CG: 478-234 (109 win equivalent) 2 extra playoff appearances, 7-10 playoffs

Looking at the stats the only one I would be OK with getting in over Cito is Davey Johnson. His #1 problem was pissing off ownership quickly. He nearly ran the Jays in 1998 but Ash picked a different Johnson and the rest is ugly history. Gillick famously wanted Pinella over Cito in 1989 but the Yankees wouldn't let the Jays negotiate with him despite Pinella being on a personal services contract only at the time (basically kept around as a backup manager).

Many said anyone could've won with the 92/93 Jays but Pinella had future HOF'ers Griffey Jr, Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, and Ichiro (not all at the same time) in their primes (plus in 2001 ex-Jays Olerud, Borders, Sprague) and won only two playoff rounds over a 10 year stretch, never getting to the World Series. Basically he was like Schneider - great talent to work with but couldn't get them to do anything in the post-season. Heck, with Griffey, Martinez, and Johnson he finished sub 500 twice.

Leyland couldn't win a playoff round with Barry Bonds, Johnson somehow only made the playoffs twice with a killer NYM team in the 80's (trust me, at the time everyone thought they'd win it all every year - that seemed like a monster team at the time).

Winning with a talented team isn't as easy as some think. Gaston deserves a TON of credit for knowing how to manager personalities and to make it work. Once Gillick left Ash destroyed the team on him with tons of horrid choices. For some bizarre reason no one else would hire him and he only got one more shot with the Jays and nearly pushed them to the playoffs again, but no luck. Manager of the Year voters were not fans of his (they love managers of overachieving teams vs pre-season predictions).

Thanks for the history John N.