Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Minor League

It is the quiet season, particularly for the minor leagues. Your minor league team has started to look at the top 30 list to be published in January and as usual there is great uncertainty at the bottom of the list. So I thought it would be fun to throw out some names that could be on the list, or were on the list last season, to see if there is a box consensus.

But before we get to that Shi Davidi published a farm system review last week and he had lots of good comments from Joe Sclafani, the Jays Director of player development.

On to the players list. How many of these players would you put in a top 30?

Miguel Hiraldo - Has been a semi regular on top 30's since he hit .300 in Bluefield pre-pandemic. Post pandemic he didn't hit well in Dunedin or Vancouver but was promoted each year and found himself in New Hampshire for 2023 at age 22. He had a better year there, hitting .275 with some pop, but is it enough to make a top 30 list?

Gabriel Martinez - seemed to be a prospect after an excellent 2022 including hitting .324 in 100 at-bats in Vancouver. He returned to Vancouver for 2023 and did much worse, hitting just .242.

Rainer Nunez - like Martinez had a break out 2022. He also retuned to Vancouver but he hit well there and earned a promotion to New Hampshire. In 78 games there he hit just .224 but he did hit 10 home runs.

Otto Lopez - he was injured for about half the season in Buffalo and hit .258 when he was available. He is 25 years old now and maybe it is too late for him to be anything other than a sometimes yo-yo player between AAA and the majors.

Alex De Jesus - has been promising in flashes, and has some pop, but doesn't seem to have enough to be considered a top 30 guy. On the plus side he is still just 21.

Zach Britton - played just 17 games this season and has been injury prone as a pro. Has never hit well although that's not an obstacle for a catcher. However he caught just two games this season with 9 games in the outfield and 7 at DH. Caught about 60% of his games in Vancouver last year so he might not be a great catcher.

Adrian Pinto - played just 35 games this season and has never had more than 175 at-bats in a season. Hasn't been a great hitter since the DSL. Still just 21 years old.

Manuel Beltre - Highly touted as an amateur but hasn't hit well as a pro. Hit .231 this season in Dunedin as a 19 year old.

Estiven Machado - hit just .187 in Vancouver this season.

Hayden Juenger - drafted in 2021 and zoomed though the system. Buffalo, however, was a shock to the system. A 6.33 ERA and 11 home runs given up in 54 innings.

Jimmy Robbins - had a breakout 2022 but regressed mightily in 2023. Always had fringy stuff that suffered when his control wasn't as good in 2023.

Adrian Hernandez - The change-up/screwball expert tried to get some extra velocity this season and that got him a trip back to AA. Where does he go from here?

Posted by Gerry on Monday, November 06 2023 @ 07:00 AM EST.

Minor League - Top 30 or Not? | 52 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Jonny German - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 09:04 AM EST (#439616) #

I'm surprised you see Alex De Jesus as borderline. The only knock I see on him is that he missed some time with injury. Otherwise he had a great year with the bat - the only under-22 player to do so in Vancouver. Good power (218 ISO) good walk rate (11.6%), 7 triples (does that lead the org?), reduced his strikeout rate from 2022 (26.4% vs 29.4%), played SS and 3B. For me he's top-20.

Otherwise Gabriel Martinez and Manuel Beltre are top 30 for me but it's a close call. The rest are outside.

Dasan Brown and CJ Van Eyk were on the edge for me before the AFL, now they're definitely in.

Hagen Danner is a guy I have outside that I suspect some will say is top-30.

bpoz - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 10:16 AM EST (#439617) #

I only put Juenger on my top 30. Sclafani mentioned ABS which I presume is robo umps. Maybe he can make the adjustment.

The Sclafani interview was interesting. Only L Jimenez, Kasevich and Roden have good D as well as very good O due to V good strike zone control. You have to hope that Barger, Orelvis and Palmegiani have good enough D.

85bluejay - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 10:37 AM EST (#439620) #

Given the state of the Jays farm system, I'm a good candidate for the top 30 list.

Nigel - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 11:40 AM EST (#439624) #

I�m with Jonny - in this system I don�t see how De Jesus isn�t a top 30 prospect. He�s got real issues - I don�t think he�s an infielder defensively and he had some very Gurriel like wtf moments in the field and on the bases. But, as Jonny notes, the offensive improvement was real and the pop is real. In addition to the injury issues he did seem to sit (even when healthy) more than you would expect of a prospect that the org values highly. I still think in this system he�s a top 30 prospect particularly given his age.

John Northey - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 12:10 PM EST (#439627) #

Just looking around the web trying to update my preseason top 30's from all top sites (never got the top 10 from Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus [who I have a list of the 20 they picked but not the order]) I noticed BA has Arjun Nimmala as the Jays #3 prospect - he was their 1st round draft pick in 2023 but played just 9 games this year. Yeah, he looks like a stud based on what we know but 3rd best in the system over Addison Barger among others? Just Martinez & Tiedemann above him? Seems high to me.

Using a basic scoring system I set up years ago (30 points for 1st down to 1 point for being named at all) I had a pretty clear set with 18 over 100 points, 6 more over 50, 21 with 10+ points, 20 with 2+ points, and 10 who I'd call 'honourable mentions' with 1 point each.

Notables with 2023 ML guys in bold

Ricky Tiedemann #1 on all lists, Addison Barger most common #2 but Yosver Zulueta had the 2nd most points. Top 10 were Ricky Tiedemann, Yosver Zulueta, Orelvis Martinez, Tucker Toman, Addison Barger, Brandon Barriera, Cade Doughty, Gabriel Martinez, Dahian Santos, Hayden Juenger.
#11-20 were: Sem Robberse, Adam Macko, Josh Kasevich, Leo Jimenez, Otto Lopez (was up for a day, then sent back down without playing), Spencer Horwitz, Adrian Pinto, Dasan Brown, Alex De Jesus, CJ Van Eyk
#21-30: Hagen Danner, Manuel Beltre, Enmanuel Bonilla, Damiano Palmegiani, Tanner Morris, Alan Roden, Rainer Nunez, Irv Carter, Nate Pearson, Trent Palmer
#31-40: Adri�n Hern�ndez, Alejandro Melean, Luis Meza, Estiven Machado, Adrian Hernandez, Manuel Beltre, Nathan Lukes, Bowden Francis, Rainer N��ez, Jimmy Robbins
Davis Schneider #42 (4 times on a list, never top 20, just below Zach Britton) - lost rookie status barely thus won't be on any lists this year.

A few are gone - Sem Robberse was traded, Lukes, Francis, Schneider should all have lost rookie status. Nate Pearson I thought lost it before 2023, but some put him on lists anyways. So 2 top 30 slots opened up for sure, probably more but I can't recall who was traded/released/etc. other than the ones I mentioned. Batter's Box was one of the few with Schneider in our top 30 (congrats guys - at #30, Blue Jays Nation had him at #22, the only ones with him higher than us that I know of - I think Baseball Prospectus had him in their top 30 but no idea where). Safe to say Damiano Palmegiani improved his status with his performance in the AFL (All-Star, 2nd in home run derby, 887 OPS in 20 games) - a shame old school stats make him look like a very poor 3B (912 fielding % in AA in 2023 is a yikes).

mendocino - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 01:20 PM EST (#439629) #

Does Will Robertson's AFL get him in the top 30 or even consideration for 40 man?

Gerry - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 02:24 PM EST (#439631) #

I don't think Robertson gets promoted to the 40 man. He is 25 in AA. He did much better in the second half of the season but I am not sure if his bat is good enough for the 40 man. Teams are usually more concerned with protecting pitchers.

Ducey - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 02:55 PM EST (#439633) #

Hayden Jeunger should be top 30.

Hey was "jeunger" than most in AAA. He was 22, 4.7 yrs younger than the average AAA player. And he throws 95 mph and has 2 decent secondaries.

The downside is he has worked as bulk 2IP guy, but that has value, and should get him to the bigs.

Michael - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 05:10 PM EST (#439636) #

Davis Schneider will not be eligible for rookie next year? That's too bad. I thought he was as he didn't hit 130 AB (just 116 AB), but I guess he was on the roster for longer than 45 days (which is the other threshhold) if the full season counts. I thought in the old days September didn't count against the rookie status due to expanded rosters and September call ups, but I guess they changed things recently to make September roster expansion smaller so maybe that changed this? Or maybe I'm mis-remembering.

On the BP list, here is the order for the Blue Jays prospects that BP published 19 December 2022:

1. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP
2. Yosver Zulueta, RHP
3. Brandon Barriera, LHP
4. Dahian Santos, RHP
5. Orelvis Martinez, IF
6. Tucker Toman, IF
7. Addison Barger, IF
8. Josh Kasevich, IF
9. Sem Robberse, RHP
10. Adam Macko, LHP
11. Otto Lopez, IF/OF
12. Cade Doughty, IF
13. Gabriel Martinez, OF
14. Hayden Juenger, P
15. Alejandro Melean, P
16. Leo Jimenez, SS
17. Chad Dallas, P
18. Davis Schneider, 2B
19. Adrian Hernandez, P
20. Miguel Hiraldo, 2B

As they often do they also had a top talent 25 and under, which had a top 5 of:
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
2. Bo Bichette, SS
3. Alek Manoah, RHP
4. Alejandro Kirk, C/DH
5. Gabriel Moreno, C

before going to the top 5 propects for spots 6-10.

See the article (paywall) at https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/79422/2023-prospects-toronto-blue-jays-top-prospects/

Also noting BP did have Schneider in the top 20, here's what they said about him specifically:

A 2017 Day Three cold weather prep bat, Schneider is yet another Jays prospect who racked up some travel rewards points in 2022. He started the year in Vancouver, ended it in Buffalo, and in between showed a good approach and some sneaky pop. As has become a refrain in the 11-20 range of this list, there aren�t really above-average tools in the profile. Schneider is direct to the ball and just seems like a dude who can handle the bat, but he also struck out about a quarter of the time and doesn�t have the kind of pop that makes that palatable in your everyday lineup. Drafted as a third baseman, he plays mostly second and left field these days, but is still an average runner who goes hard down the line and likes to steal the occasional base. It�s a rough bench profile in the modern game, but I can�t help but think Schneider will hit just enough to carve out a major league role for a while.

John Northey - Monday, November 06 2023 @ 11:03 PM EST (#439655) #

oops, my mistake - Schneider I think is qualified as it is based on AB not PA - I thought MLB grew up enough to flip it but not yet I guess as Schneider had 141 PA.

Thanks for the info on BP - that shifts Cade Doughty to #9, Gabriel Martinez to #7, and Dahian Santos to #8.Adam Macko moves to the top 10, pushing Hayden Juenger to #11, Josh Kasevich from #13 to #12, Sem Robberse to #13, Adri�n Hern�ndez jumps from 31 to 29, and Alejandro Melean from 32 to 30 - pushing down Nate Pearson & Trent Palmer 2 slots each (thus out of the top 30). Davis Schneider jumps a lot - from #42 to a tie for 32nd with Trent Palmer. Chad Dallas also jumps from 44th to 34th, Miguel Hiraldo from 48th to 35th. Having someone believe in a player can really jump them with 13 lists being mixed together (1 is partial - BA).

bpoz - Tuesday, November 07 2023 @ 07:40 AM EST (#439659) #

Looks like our AFL team made the playoffs.

Gerry - Tuesday, November 07 2023 @ 08:42 PM EST (#439682) #

It looks like Rafael Lantigua has elected free agency. I guess he wont be added to the 40 man roster.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 07 2023 @ 08:51 PM EST (#439684) #

Wonder why the Jays never called up Lantigua - in AAA (2022/23) he hit 300/406/444 which is solid, not a great basestealer (but he keeps trying - 97-52 SB-CS lifetime, 28-9 last year). Someone will give him a shot I'm sure. The smart move for him would be to push for a 40 man spot on a weaker team like the A's.

mendocino - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 05:33 AM EST (#439686) #

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-milb-free-agents/

Toronto Blue Jays
Rowan Wick, RHP
Matt Peacock, RHP
Gabe Klobosits, RHP
Zach Thompson, RHP
Matt Wisler, RHP
Roither Hernandez, RHP
Jol Concepcion, RHP
Joe Jones, RHP
Diego Linares, RHP
Paul Fry, LHP
Stevie Berman, C
Jamie Ritchie, C
Lyle Lin, C
Abiezel Ramirez, SS
Rafael Lantigua, LF

jerjapan - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 12:28 PM EST (#439692) #

Interesting list. A whole bunch of good lucks, and one hmmm from me.

I never see much coverage of minor league FA, but I recall the Yankees flexing a bit of muscle on that market. It's much more obvious with say, the Marlies, but in terms of incremental improvements, I'd be bidding on him for a MLFA.

hypobole - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 04:55 PM EST (#439696) #

Lantigua, from my limited looks, was adequate to awful defensively. Much like Schneider, a lot of his value came from his knowledge of the strike zone. But as we saw with Schneider (and with Cavan in years prior), that is almost a detriment when umpires decide balls taken are strikes.

greenfrog - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 05:38 PM EST (#439697) #

The home plate umpiring during Schneider's 2023 PAs really bothered me. Through incompetence, the umps frequently robbed him of his earned opportunities for a hit or a walk. It's not right that unskilled, lazy, or malicious umps can get away with doing this to Schneider (who diligently honed his craft over years in the minors), possibly even impacting his chances of a MLB career. And, of course, the umpiring also impacted the team's chances on the field.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 05:57 PM EST (#439698) #

The umpires will come around. There's an unfortunate veteran bias (unless the veteran has made an ass of himself). Note to VGJ: vociferously arguing a call when you are pretty clearly wrong is not a good way to convince umpires that you know the strike zone well. Biggio gets fair calls now and Schneider will too, maybe as soon as this year.

Michael - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 07:07 PM EST (#439699) #

While I mostly agree with you Mike Green on where we are on players development (I think Biggio while often getting the benefit, still doesn't get as much as he should, and think Schneider probably has at least a year of being robbed by typical umpires as a rookie or rookie-like player), I don't think this is fair. And bring on the robo-umps for ball/strike calls as soon as possible. I think the Jays would benefit a fair bit from that change (although it would hurt our pitchers since Kirk is pretty good at stealing calls).

greenfrog - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 07:18 PM EST (#439700) #

When pro tennis players play a match, the ball is in or out, and the precision cameras will confirm this one way or the other if a call is challenged. MLB is primitive by comparison (for now).

By making it appear as though Schneider was in a heavy slump towards the end of the season, the umps might have helped cost him a rare shot at some postseason action.

Fortunately, Schneider seems to be someone who will maintain his composure going forward and survive the hazing. I�m optimistic he�ll have an interesting MLB career.

greenfrog - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 07:47 PM EST (#439702) #

MLBTR reports that �Blue Jays Hope to Add Multiple Position Players This Offseason�

So, probably no Yamamoto. Likely two or three 1-3 WAR veteran position players to help keep the team in the 85-90 win range and revenues flowing. Shapiro has established that he likes to spread out the team�s available spending across multiple players.

greenfrog - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 07:52 PM EST (#439704) #

Atkins reportedly said that �there are some really compelling players� available beyond the top of the market but they could also look to the trade market since they �still have the depth to trade from.�

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 08 2023 @ 08:53 PM EST (#439705) #

Why mess with a winning formula?

bpoz - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 08:56 AM EST (#439708) #

Multiple means at least 2. I don't know if Belt would count as an add because he is still on the 40 man roster. Also I thought he would be off because I thought he is a FA.

If Atkins says something meaningful like the addition of an impact player before signing Springer, I considered that statement having weight. Ryu was a complete surprise to me, Gausman not so much and Verlander stating that the Jays made a good offer was also a surprise. Nothing was said on these players. Compelling players means lower level to me. All this is my interpretation which can be wrong.

scottt - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 09:35 AM EST (#439709) #

I don't know if Belt would count as an add because he is still on the 40 man roster.

It's those chicken fingers.

scottt - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 09:49 AM EST (#439710) #

There's money coming off the books, so they can reasonably spend to keep the team in contention.
The biggest problem is that free agents tied to a QO would cost 2 draft picks and a chuck of international signing money. If they sign Othani, that's not a problem. Even Bellinger would be OK. Chapman doesn't count.
The rest are pitchers and the Jays would be insane to go near any of them.

So yeah, the market is top heavy and pitching heavy.
It's very doubtful that they can get one of the top 2 guys.
The next best position player is Teoscar, who is probably not coming back to play in left field.
They can very well afford to sign 3 or 4 guys like Candelario, Soler, Jung Hoo Lee and Nick Martinez.

Bauer would fit well in Texas.

mendocino - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 11:01 AM EST (#439711) #

Belt is a free agent

https://www.mlbplayers.com/2023-xx-b-free-agents

Toronto Blue Jays (7): Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman, Jordan Hicks, Jay Jackson, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield, Hyun-Jin Ryu

John Northey - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 02:47 PM EST (#439712) #

So we basically have the Jays wanting to spread out the cash, no one guy getting the bulk of it this winter. Roughly $40-50 mil to spend, filling in LF/3B/2B/DH with a mix of kids and backups to fill them as defaults at the moment. Sounds like a max of $20-25 per year on a 2-3 year deal.

So given that who is the top option (not counting trades)? Ignoring Chapman, Ohtani, Bellinger, etc. - the highest priced guys. Using MLBTR estimates for pay

LF/DH: Teoscar Hernandez (4 years $80 mil), Jeimer Candelario (4 year $70 mil) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (4 years $54 mil), Jung Hoo Lee (5 years $50 mil), Jorge Soler (3 years $45 mil), Kevin Kiermaier (2 years $26 mil), Harrison Bader (2 years $20 mil), Jason Heyward (2 years $16 mil)
DH: J.D. Martinez (2 years $40 mil), Mitch Garver (C also, 3 years $39 mil), Rhys Hoskins (1B also, 2 years $36 mil), Brandon Belt (1 year $15 mil)
3B: Gio Urshela (2 years $20 mil), Justin Turner (1 year $16 mil)
2B: Amed Rosario (2 years $18 mil), Whit Merrifield (2 years, $18 mil)

That's it for position players who even remotely appear to fill the holes. Those are just from the top 50 free agents, but some are pretty weak so others would most likely be just filler (4th OF, backup IF types, maybe a platoon role or injury recovery spring invite).

If I was picking from those piles, I'd probably go with Lee for the OF (mainly a CF in Korea so solid on D I'd assume, lifetime 340/407/491 and just entering his age 25 season - could be a massive bargain, worst case a $10 mil 4th OF), Garver at DH (never can have too many backup C's who can hit imo), Urshela at 3B (can cover any IF slot if needed). Net of $50+$39+$20 mil at risk (I'd assume Schneider/Biggio/Espinal/kids could cover 2B over those 2 bad options) = $109 mil for 10 years of control total - just one going beyond 3 years. Not ideal, but only 1 long term commitment (with big potential gains), not gaining as much power as desired, but I only see real power coming through trades or signing Ohtani.

hypobole - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 05:23 PM EST (#439715) #

There is a paywalled site "Down on the Farm" that sends me a free article every Thursday. Today it looked at AAA hitters (min 250 PA's) with the best and worst swing decisions. No Bisons on the worst list, but #1 on the best list was a Bison.

Their criteria.

"SwRV, a pitch level metric that assesses swing decisions by estimating the value of a swing compared to the value of a take, was more predictive and descriptive than commonly used pitch level plate discipline metrics like O-Swing% and Z-Swing%."

"Damiano Palmegiani, the subject of a great write-up from Sean Murphy last week, shows up on top of the Triple-A leaderboards. As Sean noted in his article, Palmegiani is known to have a good approach/great judgement of the strike zone, and the data backs up this statement. Palmegiani�s swing heatmap illustrates his fantastic discipline, and the majority of his swings come at pitches in the heart of the zone with an impressive ability to avoid chasing."

greenfrog - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 07:04 PM EST (#439717) #

Here's a very current (Nov. 9) report on Palmegiani from BA:

Damiano Palmegiani, 3B, Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have unearthed strong offensive talents from later in the draft in recent years, including both Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz, who were taken in the 24th round or later. Palmegiani is the next in that line of underrated players with upside at the plate. The Canadian national (via Venezuela) connected for his fifth home run of the Fall League on Wednesday. Palmegiani has hit .263/.371/.553 over 21 games with 11 extra base hits. He is limited defensively, but has a combination of good approach, average bat-to-ball skills and power.

scottt - Thursday, November 09 2023 @ 10:01 PM EST (#439719) #

I wouldn't say that they're wanting to spread out the cash.
It's probably more accurate to say they're ready to spend all the cash.
Either they're sign Othani or Bellinger or they spread it around.

Atkins is always on everybody that makes sense.
Even Michael Taylor and Joc Pederson.
Also a switch hitting St-Louis outfielder who can at least hit lefty and who can play all outfield position.

Marc Hulet - Saturday, November 11 2023 @ 11:55 AM EST (#439742) #

Pretty sure Hiraldo and Nunez are MiLB FAs unless they've agreed to resign. Even if they do resign, I likely would not rank among the Top 30.

Yes: DeJesus
Maybe: Britton in the 25-30 range
No: G. Martinez, O. Lopez, Pinto, Beltre, Juenger
Not even close: A. Hernandez, Robbins, Machado

My Top 30 not necessarily in order:
Tiedemann, O. Martinez, Roden, Schneider, Barger, Nimmala, L. Jimenez, Palmegiani, K. Rojas, Horwitz, Danner, Barriera, Cooke, Santos, F. Perez, Macko, Jennings, Kasevich, Bohrofen, Toman, Aponte, DeJesus, Dallas, Zulueta, M. Dominguez, Da. Brown, Doughty, Bonilla, Harrison, Britton

Mike Green - Saturday, November 11 2023 @ 12:26 PM EST (#439744) #

Those look like a reasonable 30 names to me, Marc. The first 7 would be my top 7, but not in that order (and I know that you had not attempted to put them in order).

mendocino - Saturday, November 11 2023 @ 10:34 PM EST (#439755) #

Ricky, AFL Pitcher of the Year

bpoz - Sunday, November 12 2023 @ 11:43 AM EST (#439761) #

Our prospects in the AFL won the championship. Palmegiani and Robertson had a very good experience. Dasan B also did well as did Tiedemann and Van Eyk. All of them gained valuable experience.

greenfrog - Sunday, November 12 2023 @ 06:42 PM EST (#439762) #

Palmegiani finished his AFL season strong in Saturday night's championship game (per mlb.com):

"Damiano Palmegiani, 3B (TOR No. 18)
Palmegiani reached base and scored three times for Surprise, patiently working a pair of walks on six pitches each and tagging a sharp opposite-field single in the fifth. He scored on a Liam Hicks (Rangers) single that got Surprise on the board in the third inning, crossing the plate once more two innings later and a third time on Wes Clarke's (Brewers) double in the sixth. Palmegiani also flashed the leather on a miraculous diving stop at the hot corner to take an extra-base hit away from Paul McIntosh (Marlins) in the seventh."

hypobole - Tuesday, November 14 2023 @ 03:39 PM EST (#439803) #

Today is Rule 5 protection day. The toughest call for the Jays per Callis/Mayo is someone nobody thinks of as Top 30 anymore, but:

"A 2020 second-round pick out of Florida State, Van Eyk had Tommy John surgery in September 2021, missed all of 2022 and worked just 34 1/3 innings this summer. But he showed one of the best curveballs in the AFL, where he logged a 2.51 ERA and struck out three batters with three different pitches in an inning of work in the Fall Stars Game."

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 14 2023 @ 04:15 PM EST (#439806) #

Not more than 8 days ago in this very thread,Jonny German said:

Dasan Brown and CJ Van Eyk were on the edge for me before the AFL, now they're definitely in.

You're definitely somebody to me, Jonny. And I agree.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 14 2023 @ 05:29 PM EST (#439809) #

The short draft in 2020 probably helps some teams this year with the rule 5 as all college picks from that year need to be protected this winter - all 5 Jays picks were college players but Van Eyk is probably the only one worth protecting that is left (Martin traded, Palmer has yet to pass A ball and had a 13.91 ERA in the fall), Frasso long gone, and Britton is a corner OF entering his age 25 season after a 736 OPS in AA - zero risk of him being taken. Wonder if the Twins protect Austin Martin after his latest - 59 AAA games 263/387/405 and entering his age 25 season now a 2B/LF/CF mix. The Twins appear to have 4 slots open so we'll see, I suspect they will but it wouldn't shock me if they didn't. Boy did the Jays trade him away at a perfect time. So far only Adam Macko has been added to the Jays 40 man afaik with just 1 slot left according to their website (unless I miscounted). Dasan Brown, Tanner Morris, Damiano Palmegiani are all candidates for it as are Dahian Santos, Alex De Jesus, Adrian Pinto, and Gabriel Martinez (all top 30 prospects for the Jays at MLB.com but not on the 40 man yet but could be drafted).

Jonny German - Wednesday, November 15 2023 @ 05:11 AM EST (#439815) #

You flatter me Mike. I think Mayo & Callis are correct that Van Eyk is the biggest risk to be taken in the Rule 5.

By my count the 40-man currently has 1 open spot, and another will open up Friday when Adam Cimber is non-tendered.Ram�n Laureano may be non-tendered by Cleveland, I think the Jays should consider trading a low-level prospect for him as a potential 4th outfielder.

bpoz - Wednesday, November 15 2023 @ 08:29 AM EST (#439816) #

I too was surprised that only Mako was added to the 40 man roster.

Players that can be removed are maybe Cimber, E Clement, O Lopez and N Lukes. Definitely remove Parsons as he can be easily replaced. That opens spots for FAs and trades.

Non contending teams for me are Oakland & KC. Maybe LAA, CWS & Detroit. In the NL Pittsburgh, Washington and Colorado. They may use the rule 5 to get some talent.

85bluejay - Wednesday, November 15 2023 @ 02:19 PM EST (#439818) #

Until this FO loses a player of consequence in the rule V draft & given the lack of talent in the Jays system, I wouldn't worry too much about the 40 man roster - I'm actually hoping the Jays have room to draft a player or 2 - I loved the Pat Gillick years for this aspect.

scottt - Wednesday, November 15 2023 @ 07:44 PM EST (#439827) #

I don't really want the Jays to pick anyone in the Rule 5.
Pitcher side, they don't need another guy that can't be optioned.
Position player side, it would suck to have a guy on the bench while there are several guys more deserving in AAA.

John Northey - Wednesday, November 15 2023 @ 08:42 PM EST (#439828) #

I'd not be surprised if Van Eyk ends up on the 40 man by the time of the draft, or if not that he ends up either a) traded or b) taken. When other guys come off the 40 man you can add someone else, but the Jays might have left him and others off to see if teams ask about them in trade for minor parts. I suspect the Jays also are worried about a 40 man crunch come the regular season if they try to do a few up/down on the 13th pitcher slot and don't want to use it until they have to. Plus once a guy is on it their options start to be used up - Leo Jimenez is a prime example as his final option will be used up in 2024 (unless by some miracle he makes the opening day roster and isn't sent down all year - Steamer sees him as a 83 wRC+ guy if given a shot so I don't see it).

Bottom line is not adding guys to the 40 man until you are at serious risk of losing them or you are certain you'll call them up in the upcoming season just makes sense. It is rare a rule 5 guy becomes something significant, but it does happen (George Bell, Kelly Gruber, Willie Upshaw, Manny Lee, Jim Acker, all were significant parts the Jays got in the 70's/80's via it with Lee & Gruber parts of the 1992 WS winners and all of them parts of the 99 win 1985 team). The most famous rule 5 pick has to be Roberto Clemente of course with the most recent big one I can think of being Johan Santana in 1999. Sadly Gillick wimped out on who would've been his biggest - Wade Boggs was unprotected and Gillick said he nearly drafted him but decided against it at the last minute then Boston protected him at the last minute the next year when Gillick was ready to take him. Sigh.

Marc Hulet - Thursday, November 16 2023 @ 07:00 AM EST (#439832) #

I would dispute the statement that Can Eyk can still be added to the 40-man. He can't. And another team cannot acquire him and add him to the 40-man. Everything is frozen in the minors, which is why any prospect (not on the 40) traded between now and the draft will be a player to be named later.

At this point, Van Eyk isn't really the type of pitcher that usually gets drafted. He's a guy with an average FB (good CB) who has barely pitched and needs to build back up slowly so he's not going to be much good to a team in contention. And his stuff/upside wouldn't be intriguing enough to a non-contender. His ceiling is currently more of a No. 4/5 guy if healthy enough to start.

Glevin - Thursday, November 16 2023 @ 10:41 AM EST (#439833) #

"Until this FO loses a player of consequence in the rule V draft & given the lack of talent in the Jays system, I wouldn't worry too much about the 40 man roster."

The ratio of concern versus impact in the Rule V is just insane. Most years, there are 0 players who have an impact and some years there are 1 or 2 guys who get kept and do something. Which Jay is most likely to be taken? Santos with a 4.78 XFIP in A+? There are plenty of better prospects available and only a handful of teams who are willing to risk carrying a rookie on roster all year.

John Northey - Thursday, November 16 2023 @ 07:45 PM EST (#439834) #

No question to me the concern is due to the Gillick era when the Jays had so many all-stars via it.

Marc Hulet - Friday, November 17 2023 @ 07:57 AM EST (#439838) #

The Rule 5 draft pool is exceptionally weak this year and really has been since the switch from 3-4 years of protection for aged 19+ signed players and 4-5 years for those signed 18 or younger.

Teams are also promoting players through the minors noticeably quicker in that past 2-3 years which is lessening the time a lot of players are spending in the minors before getting to the majors/40-man.

I'd be surprised if a club takes anyone out of the Jays system.

bpoz - Friday, November 17 2023 @ 08:41 AM EST (#439839) #

I agree that we should not worry about the rule 5 draft. We could lose someone like Troy Watson who I believe has pretty good stuff but injuries hurt his development. He is a cheap tryout player.

Atlanta made a trade for lefty reliever A Bummer. He should help their pen.

mendocino - Monday, November 27 2023 @ 11:10 AM EST (#440042) #

11/16/23 Toronto Blue Jays signed free agent IF Rafael Lantigua to a minor league contract.

bpoz - Tuesday, November 28 2023 @ 08:20 AM EST (#440057) #

I read again a story about our prospects through all levels of the farm.

C Phil Clarke in AA was tabbed as doing the best of a thin C group. His D was said to be adequate which is the usual comment about not saying negative stuff about any prospect. My dive into his stats showed that he hit .300+ in June, July and Sept. Aug was 250. His bb/k is elite so a high OBP.

The other player was Ian Churchill who will be 25 at the start of next season. A lefty reliever that dominated Dunedin & Vancouver but was old for the leagues.

scottt - Tuesday, November 28 2023 @ 08:39 AM EST (#440058) #

Clarke bats left which is very valuable for a backup as it's easy to set him up so he never start against a lefty.
However, he hasn't really hit enough at this point.

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