Good showing for Ricky T tonight.

Little surprised that Ohashi's not among the Jay's prospects in the AFL.

The AFL is roughly a AA level league. Dasan Brown is the only Jays representative who hasn't made it to AA but he has a full season in high A. Ohashi hasn't played above low A yet.

Ricky T threw five innings, 77 pitches, and struck out seven.

Fitz Stadler and Conor Larkin combined to give up seven runs.

Dasan Brown had a double in three trips to the plate.

Honestly, Ohashi looking at a possible move to the pen at this point after failing to show further development in 2023.

Stadler has a line you don't see very often. 1/3 of an inning... 20 pitches and just four strikes. He hit two batters and walked two.

So good outings from Tiedemann, Dasan Brown and yesterday Palmegiani and Will Robertson.

I think pumping up the tires of Ohashi is a running joke by Super Bluto. I'm enjoying it!

Ohashi is a pitcher that I liked in 2021. He has not really advanced. His 89-91 FB is slow. Estrada and Marcum succeeded. But I have to admit that Ohashi has disappointed. Irv Carter does have velo but his results have been worse. Ohashi is very young so maybe he improves his velo and control. Irv Carter is also young.

BA says Trent Palmer is starting for Surprise today.

Trent Palmer couldn't get an out tonight. He was pulled after 7 hitters and 27 pitches.

the game is streaming live

https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/live-streams

CJ Van Eyk went 3.1 innings, one hit, four walks, two K's.

Dasan Brown and Damiano Palmegiani had two hits each.

Exit velo on 96 mph 4sm FB was 100mph by Dasan Brown.

Tiedemann and our 3 hitters are doing V well in the AFL. The 3 hitters played the full season. Palmegiani did V well. He dominated at 2 levels except for the Ks being too high. Robertson came on strong. He hit 300+ Jul, Aug and Sept. He has power. Dasan Brown did not make enough contact in Vancouver.

Tiedeman pitched today. 5 IP.

69 pitches for Tiedemann. He had six K's. One hitter figured out Ricky, he homered and doubled off him and those were the only two hits he allowed.

Dasan Brown had a good game yesterday. 2H 2RBI 1BB. He always plays CF.

I think this is the 3rd week in the AFL. Some Jays are performing very well.

Tiedemann is up to speed which was mostly expected.

Van Eyk has recovered from his injury and performing well which is a relief.

T Palmer is getting used to pitching again. Hope he will be fully ready for ST.

Robertson is doing ok or somewhat well which is good because he has never had a good season in the Jays system.

Palmegiani has been fantastic last year and this year.

Dasan Brown had a poor year but he stole 12 bases in May without getting caught. The rest of the season 14SB 11CS and could not hit well. So not a good season and possibly he was dealing with some minor injuries. That 12-0 SB/CS is in the 60SB range. He is doing great in the AFL and is young. He turned 22 on Sept 25.

Just checked and found a Gameday for today's game where Tiedemann has gone 3 IP 3 H 5 K 1 R 1 BB so far.

1st inning - 2 pitch flyout (1 ball, 1 strike), 2 pitch single (1 ball, 1 strike), 4 pitch K swinging (1 ball, 3 strikes), 1 pitch flyout

2nd inning - 2 pitch flyout (both strikes), 4 pitch flyout (2 balls, 2 strikes), 5 pitch K (1 ball, 4 strikes, swing and miss to end it)

3rd inning - 3 pitch single (all strikes), 4 pitch K (1 ball, swinging strikeout), stolen base, 5 pitch double (2 balls, 3 strikes, run scores), 6 pitch walk (4 balls, 2 strikes), mound visit, 5 pitch strikeout (2 balls, swinging K), 6 pitch K (2 balls, swinging K to end)

From Gameday it seems they aren't swinging at pitches outsize the strike zone, which is a problem. He isn't fooling them, just overpowering them. No pitch type or speed which is annoying. From what I can tell though that is going to be a big problem for him going forward - if hitters can tell if you are throwing a ball or strike then ML hitters will tattoo those pitches. 49 strikes, 32 balls so far.

Stats for the AFL team the Jays players are on for those who are curious (I was).

Tiedemann was taken out after 3 innings and 49 pitches. Probably just cautious load management.

Yeah, the 29 pitch 3rd was probably the reason. Just a bit much for him right now. Seems no one else is going more than 1 inning. Well, one guy for the other team went 3. Game called after 7 innings. AFL I'm guessing doesn't worry about details like playing 9 innings and probably is loose with eligible players (wouldn't shock me if the staff is getting shelled if a coach came in to pitch). Tiedemann up to 13 innings now with 18 K's (wow) and just 5 walks. I suspect he'll improve a lot in 2024 and get a late season call up from AAA to be in the pen during the playoff push if needed. #1 for him is to get the innings in and build up endurance I figure. #2 is to get hitters swinging at pitches outside the strike zone more if this game was any indication of how that is going for him (he needs a sit down with Gausman).

I am not that high on Will Robertson but in 23ABs 9bb 6K. This is very good. He figured things out during July, August and September.

Victor Mesia was a big money signing by the Jays a few years ago but his career has gone backwards since then. He was just released by the Jays.

Mesia was highly thought of for a while but "big money" is an exaggeration. His signing bonus was $300k, equivalant to a 6th-round college pick. Disappointing nonetheless, and surprising to see a guy gone at age 20.

Luis Meza, their 2022 top international signing, just finished up his first season in the FCL with a 0.192 ba.

Ugh. Luis Meza is a catcher, was considered top notch when signed (50 hit, 50 power, 50 arm, 55 field, 45 run (as a catcher)). But hit 229/267/292 at 17 in the DSL last year (101 PA), and 192/276/212 at 18 in the FCL this year (59 PA). Given his big $2.25 mil bonus he'll get another shot at the FCL in 2024 I suspect, and as a catcher the Jays have to be expecting him to be a 5 year minor league projected minimum. Hopefully that bat shows up in 2024 though.

CJ Van Eyk threw a five inning one hitter in the AFL tonight with no walks and five K's.

IMO the top young catcher in the Jays system is Edward Duran. At the moment at least. He hit well in Dunedin and may get to Vancouver soon. There are other catchers lower down that may develop.

T Palmer also pitched in the shout out. 3 innings and 50 pitches.

I read the article & listened to the interview with Van Eyk. Sinker, 4 seam, SL, CU and CH.

Our AFL prospects are doing well. Tiedemann and Van Eyk. Robertson, Dasan Brown and Palmegiani.

Tiedemann and Jackson Jobe was a great pitching matchup yesterday. The writeup said that this game was the "culmination" of their season or something. The AFL season has a few weeks to go and I cannot understand what culmination means. It seemed to mean that Tiedemann's season has ended.

I think most of the guys there for the Jays are Rule 5 decisions. Tiedemann isn't, but CJ Van Eck is. College players from 2020 (all Jay draftees) and earlier, plus high school/IFA's from 2019 or earlier.

C.J. Van Eck has had tons of injury issues. 3 years as a pro and just 114 2/3 IP, reaching AA this year (13 IP 16 H 11 R 6 ER 6 BB 7 SO). He is a tough one - clearly the Jays have invested a lot in him over those years and that AA time was the first at any level over any length of time that he didn't have 10+ K/9, including college. But in Surprise he is doing well - 11 IP, 7 H 1 R, 6 BB 9 SO - but the walks are far too high. I wouldn't protect him based on what I see in the stats, but if the arm is live and the Jays see him in AA/AAA to start and maybe the majors by end of year he'd be worth it. Just with the team contending I'd rather not have a 40 man slot used up by a guy who won't be up in 2024 at all and that is how I see him.

Tiedemann is at 4 starts, 18 IP, 12 H 5 R/ER 8 BB 23 SO and starting to look like he'll be up in June or July if needed. 44 IP in regular minors, plus 18 here = 62 total vs the 78 2/3 last year. You could add the 3 IP for the ML club in spring to get to 65 if you wish, but he clearly needs more build up. I expect the Jays to shoot for 100-130 innings in 2024 mostly in the minors, chance of a September call up as a reliever for the post season push if needed, but the goal will be to leave him in the minors all year and save that 40 man slot until needed.

Damiano Palmegiani is trying to earn his shot for 2024 in the battle for 3B. Hitting 289/410/556 in the AFL is a good start to go with 255/364/478 in AA/AAA (981 OPS in AAA, top 10 in xbh, tb, RBI, HR, 2B in AA (and GIDP so he fits with our current team...sigh). He could be ready for the show with the bat, no idea on his glove. He was 1 for 4 with a walk in the spring for the Jays. Entering his age 24 season I'm sure he feels he needs to reach if he wants to make the really big bucks someday and his peak should be coming (age 25-29 is the usual time for it).

Dasan Brown is a 40 man choice to make. In A+ (his highest level so far) he hit just 218/309/315 (ugh) 26-11 in SB-CS (not good as he led in CS). In AFL he has hit 263/341/395 going 1-0 in SB-CS. I don't see why he'd be protected this winter as he clearly needs to work on hitting a LOT more. His 116 K's in A+ was waaaay too high for a guy who lives and dies on his speed.

Lower prospects are Will Robertson - 245/323/488 in AA, hasn't played yet in AFL; Fitz Stadler 36 1/3 IP in A/AA 10.4 K/9 vs 6.4 BB/9, in AFL 4 G 3 2/3 IP 3 H 7 R/ER 6 BB 4 SO 3 HR - ouch; Trent Palmer - another 2020 draftee, just 7 2/3 IP this year, 3 G 5 IP in AFL 10 H 10 R/ER 6 BB 3 SO - he won't be protected either; Conor Larkin 46 IP in A+ 4.30 ERA 4.1 BB/9 vs 11.2 K/9, AFL 3 G 2 1/3 IP 7 H 6 R 5 ER 4 BB 3 SO - not rule 5 yet, but has to pick it up a lot if he is to succeed.

Slow day on da Box so I thought of possible additions and subtractions to the 40 man roster.

We have 43 players on the 40 man roster with 3 on the 60 day IL. Cimber, Danner and O Lopez.

FAs 6 Hicks, Ryu, Chapman, Merrifield, KK & Belt.

Worth keeping or not worth keeping 5. Parsons, Heineman, O Lopez, E Clement & Lukes. This is my opinion only so grain of salt. Parsons keep if his stuff is good. O Lopez no options left and never got used much. Also not used much Heineman, Clement, Lukes and younger players like Horwitz & Eden.

Cimber is a tough call for me.

Regarding the addition of prospects, I have a short list of possibilities and none seem capable of helping a ML team. Add Macko because his stuff is too good and in his last 7 outings he was quite outstanding in 6 but bad in 1. Probably starts in AA. M Dominguez was good enough in Vancouver. Not bad in NH. Promoted in Aug with 4 of his 5 starts being V good and 1 mediocre. His 3 Sept starts were mediocre/bad. Dasan Brown has a high upside IMO so I add him because he can give V good D and SB threat as a bench player in the ML. Adding Van Eyk is a maybe for me because he could progress at AA/AAA during the season but probably can't handle the ML from the get go.

Already on the 40 man but not used are B Francis, Danner & Zulueta. I consider Danner, Zulueta, Barger & Orelvis potential impact players. D Schneider could be an impact player. I expect him to get a chance to show that. He has earned a shot at being a regular. Leo Jimenez has V good D and C Eden has elite speed and D.

So my 40 man so far in this post has youth and good potential. I have named 11 players, 12 if you add Van Eyk. Quite a few good and better prospects like Palmegiani, Tiedemann and C Dallas don't need to be added to the 40 man this off season.

Off season ML acquisitions needed IMO are 1 good reliever which should be an easy add. Maybe 1 SP but I don't know who. Definitely 1 big bat but again I don't know who.

I assume the reliever is Chad Green.
I can't see spending money on a 5th starter.
They need one really big bat. Maybe a second big bat.

Dasan Brown hit his first homer yesterday, and is putting up a respectable .900 OPS in the AFL (the team average is .838 and league average about .780).  If it is in fact at double A level, this would represent a considerable improvement from his high A season in Vancouver. 

I saw Dasan's HR and the interview. He wants to hit into the biggest part of the field and then use his speed. The HR, he ran at full speed until half way between 1st and 2nd. He is not experienced in hitting HRs. Only slowed down after 2B due to momentum IMO.

Palmegiani hit a triple. Line drive fair along 3B. He ran hard, but you can see the speed difference between him and Dasan. Great hustle.

I am impressed.

Van Eyk pitching today.

Dasan Brown could potentially be drafted in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 — he'd only have to go to AAA. Not likely, mind, but much more likely than the major league phase!

Can't see Dasan being 40 manned, but being placed on the 28 man AAA roster would protect him from the minor league phase.

None of the 3 batters are doing great, but all are having a pretty good AFL. About 60 AFL hitters have had 50 PA's. Jays rank 15th, 16th, 17th by wOBA.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F61642670-892b-456e-b2fd-b1310ff92a92_2520x1568.png?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

That would make sense, hypobole.  He shouldn't be lost unnecessarily, but isn't likely to be taken in the Rule 5 major league draft. 

I am with Joe. If Leo Jimenez was protected then so should Dasan Brown. However I don't know how all these young players are going to get onto the big team while we are contending.

Dasan Brown hasn't handled high A pitching yet and is doing OK in the AFL but the AFL typically doesn't count for much. He is also striking out in close to 40% of his AB's down there.

Brown is the type of player for whom a rule 5 pick would really hurt his career so I don't see it.

Looking at the minor league hitting stats for Evan Carter does anyone else see how similar they are to Davis Schneider and Alan Roden?

Carter is younger and faster, and a better defender (although right now, he's a fine fielding centerfielder playing left-field as Varsho is).  But, yes, I noted the difference in the way Bochy handled Carter, compared with how John Schneider handled Davis Schneider.