Do I really want to talk about the Tampa Bay Rays? Especially when the Jays probably have to play them again in a couple of days?
I would have ranked the teams by Runs Scored, seeing as how that's why teams send players up to hit in the first place. But not everyone has played the same number of games, so I did an off-camera calculation of the runs scored per game and.... wait a gosh darn minute! How are the Blue Jays in fifth place? Those aren't the Blue Jays we've been watching all year! What is this sorcery? What have you done? What are you leaving out?
I'm leaving out everybody's home games, naturally. It turns out that when you get everyone on neutral ground, the Blue Jays offense isn't chopped liver after all. Even with all the double plays, and the issues with runners in scoring positions, it's one of the league's better offenses. They're in a tight little knot with Seattle and Texas, not as potent as the league's three offensive powerhouses - Houston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay - but right behind them.
But then everybody goes home, and the story changes. Considerably.
Scoring 4.99 runs per game on the road and just 4.05 at home? That's one large Home-Road split.
Ah, if only life were so simple! For one thing, a single season's games (or two seasons, in the case of Camden Yards) give us much too small a sample to provide a reliable sense of a ballpark's impact on scoring. I can say with confidence that the original Yankee Stadium of Ruth, DiMaggio, and Mantle was one of the toughest places to score runs in the history of the game. There's 50 years and almost 4,000 games that say so. But in just 81 games, weird things can happen. And probably have.
So let's see how the various AL teams have done at preventing the opposition from scoring in neutral parks
And here's what happens when they go home
Yeah, that's not great. Just four of the thirteen most used hitters have been better at home and none of them, alas, are full time players. It's the two catchers, Biggio and Espinal. Meanwhile five of the six players with the most Plate Appearances at the Dome - Guerrero, Bichette, Merrifield, Chapman, Varsho - are also, by unhappy coincidence the five players whose production has fallen off the most at home. Springer is the exception, although even he - along with Belt and Kiermaier - has been better away from home.
No I don't. Let's talk about the offensive production of the various AL teams. Let's look at multiple columns of densely packed numbers, many of them running to multiple decimal points. We're baseball fans! This is what we do!
It's Data Table Time! This is through Thursday's games:
HITTING PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Houston 3130 2789 451 750 138 10 128 441 53 20 270 630 .269 .340 .463 .803
Baltimore 3212 2877 445 745 172 14 97 431 59 13 277 735 .259 .326 .430 .756
Tampa Bay 3059 2749 418 722 130 11 118 403 69 22 243 680 .263 .329 .447 .776
Texas 3066 2733 390 702 156 12 88 369 40 10 279 687 .257 .329 .419 .748
Toronto 3202 2875 404 757 152 11 103 378 45 18 275 669 .263 .334 .431 .766
Seattle 3214 2844 401 707 147 7 117 386 71 18 288 824 .249 .328 .429 .756
Minnesota 3058 2710 363 639 113 8 108 347 46 8 284 806 .236 .317 .403 .720
Los Angeles 3161 2819 375 718 131 12 107 363 30 21 259 756 .255 .325 .424 .748
Boston 2960 2671 353 642 152 5 91 342 50 13 232 700 .240 .307 .403 .710
Cleveland 3015 2734 346 687 137 14 67 325 74 13 226 560 .251 .312 .385 .697
New York 2932 2604 333 595 107 8 95 317 47 12 276 725 .229 .307 .385 .692
Chicago 3028 2789 333 658 137 9 88 321 52 9 189 730 .236 .290 .386 .676
Detroit 3060 2769 330 635 123 14 87 319 48 16 247 751 .229 .296 .378 .674
Oakland 2886 2582 302 599 113 7 89 289 64 13 228 707 .232 .304 .385 .689
Kansas City 2891 2647 283 600 122 21 74 271 84 25 182 774 .227 .283 .373 .655
I would have ranked the teams by Runs Scored, seeing as how that's why teams send players up to hit in the first place. But not everyone has played the same number of games, so I did an off-camera calculation of the runs scored per game and.... wait a gosh darn minute! How are the Blue Jays in fifth place? Those aren't the Blue Jays we've been watching all year! What is this sorcery? What have you done? What are you leaving out?
I'm leaving out everybody's home games, naturally. It turns out that when you get everyone on neutral ground, the Blue Jays offense isn't chopped liver after all. Even with all the double plays, and the issues with runners in scoring positions, it's one of the league's better offenses. They're in a tight little knot with Seattle and Texas, not as potent as the league's three offensive powerhouses - Houston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay - but right behind them.
But then everybody goes home, and the story changes. Considerably.
HITTING PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Texas 3096 2737 483 749 168 5 143 468 39 9 303 683 .274 .349 .495 .844
Tampa Bay 2975 2644 419 673 142 13 107 402 89 19 261 716 .255 .332 .440 .771
Boston 3068 2756 408 769 184 13 90 384 53 12 244 630 .279 .344 .453 .797
Minnesota 2988 2632 391 658 146 15 118 377 40 10 289 808 .250 .333 .451 .784
Kansas City 2910 2611 371 677 130 21 82 358 75 19 219 578 .259 .322 .419 .741
Baltimore 2786 2502 354 638 132 14 85 342 53 11 227 598 .255 .320 .421 .741
Houston 3016 2678 365 668 137 10 92 349 52 12 274 584 .249 .325 .411 .736
Los Angeles 2875 2576 349 606 114 14 119 333 41 10 248 746 .235 .308 .429 .737
Seattle 2851 2531 344 600 133 5 88 329 46 12 251 743 .237 .317 .398 .715
Toronto 2847 2534 312 618 131 6 77 301 52 16 261 600 .244 .319 .392 .711
New York 2891 2581 328 578 106 6 123 321 51 18 271 662 .224 .301 .413 .714
Detroit 2825 2542 298 609 113 10 71 283 33 7 236 690 .240 .309 .376 .684
Chicago 2806 2578 301 626 125 4 78 289 33 13 178 651 .243 .296 .385 .681
Cleveland 2965 2674 307 666 151 15 54 289 72 22 235 559 .249 .315 .377 .692
Oakland 2935 2600 270 562 109 14 78 262 83 18 256 755 .216 .294 .359 .653
Scoring 4.99 runs per game on the road and just 4.05 at home? That's one large Home-Road split.
It's not just the Jays, of course. Baltimore loses almost the same amount of offense at Camden Yards (5.49 to 4.60), and we're all quite familiar with how the changes at Camden Yards have made that a much tougher home run park these last few years. And no team's hitting seems to suffer more than the Astros when they play at Enron Memorial - their Runs/Game practically plummets, from 5.78 per game to 4.51. Which is still pretty decent.
It's Texas and Kansas City (!) who've been getting the huge boost from their home parks, at least in 2023.
Well, these are likely just Park Effect, right? We know about Park Effects. So maybe the newly renovated Rogers Centre actually suppresses offense, or at least it has in 2023. Good to know.
And when we look at the pitching, we'll surely find that the Jays have reduced the opposition's scoring to a similar degree. We'll probably find that the pitching staffs in Houston and Baltimore are doing likewise. After all - if the home field suppresses offense, the team should be
allowing fewer runs as well. That's just logic, which was allegedly
invented by the Greeks thousands of years ago.
Ah, if only life were so simple! For one thing, a single season's games (or two seasons, in the case of Camden Yards) give us much too small a sample to provide a reliable sense of a ballpark's impact on scoring. I can say with confidence that the original Yankee Stadium of Ruth, DiMaggio, and Mantle was one of the toughest places to score runs in the history of the game. There's 50 years and almost 4,000 games that say so. But in just 81 games, weird things can happen. And probably have.
So let's see how the various AL teams have done at preventing the opposition from scoring in neutral parks
PITCHING W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS.
Tampa Bay 44 34 3.86 678 605 310 291 78 218 677 .236 .302 .381 .684
Minnesota 38 40 3.91 679 611 312 295 92 207 724 .238 .302 .396 .697
Houston 48 30 3.74 683.1 592 315 284 99 263 672 .234 .310 .404 .714
Detroit 41 40 4.00 701.1 642 335 312 88 220 684 .241 .304 .395 .698
New York 39 38 3.91 667.2 568 320 290 78 255 657 .227 .306 .380 .686
Texas 39 38 4.04 668.2 616 320 300 80 230 610 .245 .313 .391 .703
Toronto 46 35 3.90 706.2 687 341 306 99 219 736 .252 .312 .415 .728
Baltimore 52 29 3.98 718.2 652 346 318 91 246 732 .240 .311 .404 .715
Seattle 43 38 4.07 705.1 687 346 319 91 197 658 .253 .309 .415 .724
Cleveland 33 45 4.25 675 656 345 319 96 252 591 .253 .323 .419 .742
Boston 37 40 4.43 666 644 354 328 108 213 668 .251 .317 .436 .753
Chicago 30 51 5.06 689.2 669 415 388 106 321 678 .252 .340 .439 .779
Los Angeles 35 46 4.83 692.2 681 417 372 106 322 671 .254 .341 .439 .780
Kansas City 23 56 5.32 658 660 413 389 105 241 591 .261 .329 .444 .773
Oakland 22 55 6.22 642.2 718 466 444 111 331 583 .282 .372 .489 .861
And here's what happens when they go home
PITCHING W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Seattle 42 35 3.50 708 595 305 275 91 207 755 .225 .286 .377 .663
Toronto 41 36 3.60 708 595 307 283 94 258 755 .227 .302 .386 .688
Tampa Bay 53 28 3.80 737 618 331 311 94 209 806 .223 .284 .384 .668
Cleveland 42 39 3.67 744 665 334 303 74 268 705 .238 .308 .378 .686
Minnesota 47 33 3.83 735 651 330 313 93 224 785 .235 .298 .398 .696
Baltimore 47 30 3.95 699 656 321 307 85 217 657 .247 .307 .392 .699
New York 42 39 3.92 739 654 353 322 108 243 747 .235 .305 .400 .705
Houston 39 42 4.25 735 705 381 347 102 261 770 .251 .322 .419 .741
Texas 50 31 4.54 734 689 383 370 113 252 705 .248 .315 .423 .738
Boston 39 42 4.73 730 756 414 384 99 276 718 .265 .337 .440 .777
Los Angeles 36 42 4.49 712 691 401 355 100 303 752 .252 .334 .408 .742
Detroit 33 43 4.63 696 642 393 358 95 244 648 .242 .309 .407 .716
Kansas City 31 47 5.00 708 724 419 393 97 292 635 .264 .341 .440 .781
Chicago 30 47 4.83 704 675 414 378 108 313 755 .249 .335 .416 .751
Oakland 26 55 4.92 743 720 442 406 97 346 688 .254 .340 .424 .764
On the one hand, the Jays run prevention certainly does improve at the Rogers Centre - seventh best in the league is kind of middle of the pack, but second best is pretty good. And yet... while 3.99 runs per game is certainly better than 4.21, it obviously doesn't match the impact the home field appears to have on the team's hitters. Something is out of kilter. Gone askew on the treadle, perhaps.
And because it's just one season and the sample is so very small, there are even stranger things than the 2023 Blue Jays to contemplate. You remember how no team loses more scoring when they go home than the Houston Astros, who score 5.78 runs per game on the road but just 4.51 runs at home? The Astros pitchers have not had that type of success in keeping the other team from scoring - Houston gives up quite a few more runs at home (4.70) than they do on the road (4.04), which makes no sense whatsoever.
Similarly, Detroit's hitters have done just a little bit better on the road. Their pitchers, however, have been much more effective when they get away from Comerica, where they have generally been beaten senseless. Only Kansas City and Oakland give up more runs at home. Just as no team's offense has a bigger Home/Road split than the Astros, no team's defense has a bigger split than the Tigers.
If it can't be explained by a Park Effect having a clear and obvious impact on both sides of the ball, we'd better get into the weeds and look at the individuals. So let's begin with the pitching this time, the better to see that for most of them it hasn't made very much difference whether they're at home or not:
W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Mayza 2 1 1.24 29 27 5 4 1 8 28 .252 .304 .327 .631
Romano 3 4 3.30 30 26 12 11 2 12 39 .230 .315 .327 .642
Swanson 1 1 2.84 31.2 29 10 10 4 8 36 .244 .291 .387 .678
Gausman 7 5 3.27 85.1 79 35 31 9 23 106 .239 .290 .393 .683
Manoah 3 4 4.33 52 45 29 25 6 26 48 .227 .329 .369 .698
Ryu 1 1 3.47 23.1 20 11 9 5 8 19 .222 .293 .411 .704
Berrios 5 6 3.97 99.2 91 46 44 13 29 91 .243 .306 .404 .709
Richards 1 1 6.12 32.1 30 23 22 6 18 45 .238 .336 .429 .764
Kikuchi 5 3 3.77 88.1 98 41 37 13 21 94 .281 .325 .444 .769
Garcia 3 1 5.63 32 40 22 20 5 5 37 .301 .345 .474 .819
Bassitt 8 4 4.50 90 100 53 45 19 26 81 .277 .327 .507 .834
Pearson 3 2 7.64 17.2 23 16 15 3 7 17 .311 .369 .487 .856
And here's what's happened at Dome Sweet Dome.
W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Bassitt 7 4 3.08 102.1 71 35 35 9 32 93 .197 .279 .314 .593
Swanson 3 1 3.27 33 21 12 12 4 12 38 .184 .262 .333 .595
Pearson 2 0 2.88 25 13 9 8 4 11 26 .153 .265 .341 .607
Mayza 1 0 1.61 22.1 20 4 4 0 7 22 .241 .297 .313 .610
Garcia 0 3 2.84 31.2 27 13 10 3 10 40 .231 .300 .350 .650
Romano 2 3 2.57 28 21 8 8 4 12 33 .204 .287 .369 .656
Gausman 5 4 3.07 99.2 84 37 34 10 32 131 .228 .292 .366 .658
Berrios 6 6 3.30 90 82 36 33 12 23 93 .239 .294 .391 .685
Kikuchi 5 3 3.87 74.1 62 34 32 13 25 83 .222 .291 .394 .685
Richards 1 0 3.58 37.2 30 15 15 6 16 58 .216 .299 .396 .695
Ryu 2 2 3.16 25.2 26 12 9 4 6 18 .260 .299 .460 .759
Manoah 0 5 8.15 35.1 48 32 32 9 33 31 .324 .460 .581 1.041
The relievers have generally worked so few innings that one lousy game can have a pretty big impact. Richards, Garcia, and Pearson all have much better numbers at home, but I wouldn't want to read too much into it. And that impact is pretty much cancelled out by the work of Alek Manoah, who was mediocre on the road but fifty shades of awful at home. It's the four men who have been in the rotation all season - Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Kikuchi - that I would prefer to focus on. And three of them - Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi - have hardly any Home/Road split at all. Chris Bassitt is the exception - it seems that he absolutely loves pitching in the Rogers Centre. (As all these numbers are through Wednesday's games, it doesn't even include his work against the Yankees last night (which left him with a home record of 8-4, 2.86). The difference between Bassitt's home and road performance, by itself, pretty much accounts for the difference in the Jays pitching splits.
So we really need to look at the hitters. In neutral parks, this is what happens:
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Schneider 16 68 54 10 15 3 1 4 11 0 0 11 21 .278 .427 .593 1.019
Belt 48 198 166 29 41 10 0 11 26 0 0 31 72 .247 .364 .506 .870
Bichette 66 302 289 41 94 15 2 11 39 3 2 11 60 .325 .354 .505 .860
Guerrero 77 346 308 39 89 15 0 16 48 2 1 30 44 .289 .364 .494 .858
Chapman 74 314 276 39 70 21 1 9 29 3 2 33 93 .254 .344 .435 .779
Kiermaier 68 220 206 33 59 12 2 5 23 6 1 12 36 .286 .327 .437 .764
Varsho 80 308 279 36 71 14 2 12 38 10 3 24 70 .255 .313 .448 .761
Merrifield 75 311 288 33 83 16 0 7 40 11 6 19 56 .288 .331 .417 .748
Springer 75 341 308 51 82 14 1 10 39 8 3 28 59 .266 .329 .416 .745
Jansen 47 159 145 18 31 9 0 9 27 0 0 10 38 .214 .283 .462 .745
Biggio 59 183 160 28 34 7 0 5 16 2 0 19 49 .213 .312 .350 .662
Espinal 44 109 97 14 22 6 0 1 9 0 0 9 19 .227 .306 .320 .625
Kirk 63 215 186 15 40 8 0 1 18 0 0 25 21 .215 .321 .274 .595
And then they come home.
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Schneider 17 67 57 11 15 7 0 4 9 1 0 9 20 .263 .373 .597 .970
Jansen 39 142 123 20 30 6 0 8 26 0 0 13 24 .244 .345 .488 .833
Belt 51 191 159 21 41 13 0 5 12 0 0 30 64 .258 .377 .434 .811
Kirk 57 193 172 17 48 8 0 6 22 0 0 17 24 .279 .347 .430 .777
Biggio 48 136 115 21 28 5 0 4 20 3 2 17 37 .244 .346 .391 .737
Bichette 65 280 265 23 73 13 0 9 32 1 1 14 52 .276 .311 .426 .737
Kiermaier 58 175 153 24 36 8 4 3 12 7 0 16 47 .235 .316 .399 .715
Springer 76 327 291 35 71 9 0 11 32 12 2 31 63 .244 .322 .388 .710
Guerrero 76 321 281 36 66 13 0 10 46 3 2 35 51 .235 .321 .388 .709
Chapman 63 254 221 25 49 18 1 6 23 1 0 28 70 .222 .315 .394 .709
Espinal 46 140 128 15 34 8 0 1 16 2 1 9 15 .266 .317 .352 .668
Merrifield 68 273 251 32 66 11 0 4 27 15 4 17 44 .263 .311 .355 .666
Varsho 74 255 231 26 41 9 1 6 18 6 4 20 61 .178 .252 .303 .555
I can't explain it. I don't think it's a Park Effect (although it will be years before we can know for sure!) - I think it's mostly just One of Those Things that happens. But while Varsho has no history here beyond his abysmal performance hitting at home this season, the other four do. And Guerrero and Bichette have both hit better in road games than in Toronto over their careers. Chapman and Merrifield, both unlikely to be around past this season, have both hit better elsewhere as well.
Well, baseball tonight.
Fri 29 Sep - Civale ()7-4, 3.43 vs Kikuchi (10-6, 3.82)
Sat 30 Sep - Littell (3-6, 3.68) vs Ryu (3-3, 3.31)
Sun 1 Oct - Bradley (5-8, 5.52) vs Gausman (12-9, 3.16)
We are, of course, hoping Gausman won't be needed on Sunday. But until we know for sure...
