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Game Threads Toronto at Tampa Bay, September 22-24
The last road series of the season, in that old house of horrors in Tampa.


The Rays' chances of catching the Orioles for the division lead are not completely defunct. They'll need help from Cleveland, or Washington, or Boston, but until that help fails to arrive the Rays still have something to play for.

The Story So Far

The Rays had begun the season by winning each of their first 13 games. Then they came to Toronto, and Jose Berrios drew a line, right there.

Friday 14 Apr: Tampa Bay 3 Toronto 6 -  The Jays broke this one open in the fifth inning - ahead 2-1, they loaded the bases against Rasmussen. Colin Poche came out of the bullpen and promptly walked the first two batters he saw.

Saturday 15 Apr: Tampa Bay 2 Toronto 5 - The Rays lose again, as Yusei Kikuchi struck out nine and allowed just a single run in six innings. A couple of two-out hits from Merrifield and Jansen broke up a 1-1 tie. Romano loaded the bases in the ninth, but retired Diaz and Franco to escape.

Sunday 16 Apr: Tampa Bay 8 Toronto 1 - The first four batters reached against Alek Manoah (a HBP, a couple of walks, a single) and three of them scored. Four straight hits in the fifth inning, the big blow being Bethancourt's three run homer, settled this one.

The Blue Jays made their other 2023 visit to the Trop in late May, for a four game set that did not go all that well.

Monday 22 May: Toronto 4 Tampa Bay 6 - The Rays scored their first run in the second on a Guerrero error, which prolonged the inning just long enough for Bethancourt to follow with a two-run homer. Arozarena and Raley would later add solo shots against Bassitt. The Jays brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth, but Fairbanks closed it out.

Tuesday 23 May: Toronto 20 Tampa Bay 1 - Jose Berrios was the happy beneficiary of a truly excessive amount of run support, although half of it came against position players in the final two innings. The Jays abused Tampa Bay for 27 hits, and 16 of them came against actual pitchers.

Wednesday 24 May: Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 7 - Shane McClanahan was his usual self, running his record to 8-0 with seven very strong innings. Raley and Siri reached Kikuchi for solo homers in the second, which was more than enough for McClanahan on this day.

Thursday 25 May: Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 6 - Alek Manoah was - how shall we put this - "non-competitive," walking five and allowing five runs in three innings. Zach Eflin didn't strike out anybody all evening, but he allowed just a single run in seven innings.

Matchups!

Friday 22 Sept - Bassitt (14-8, 3.78) vs Glasnow (9-6, 3.53)
Saturday 23 Sept - Ryu (3-3, 2.62) vs Littell (3-6, 3.94)
Sunday 24 Sept - Kikuchi (10-6, 3.74) vs Bradley (5-7, 5.36)
Posted by Magpie on Friday, September 22 2023 @ 01:00 PM EDT.
Toronto at Tampa Bay, September 22-24 | 289 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#437329) #
Tropicana Field is the venue for next year's WWE Royal Rumble.  Boys, let's have it.
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Marc Hulet - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#437330) #
With Captain Pitchcom throwing tonight for the Jays it will be interesting to see the reactions of the Rays hitters... and if it looks like they know certain pitches are coming in key ABs/situations...

Junior Caminero was just called up from AA by the Rays. Top 10 prospect in the majors.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#437331) #
Springer 9, Bichette 6, Guerrero Jr. 0, Biggio 3, Kirk 2, Chapman 5, Varsho 8, Merrifield 7, Espinal 4 against a RHP.  Playing to lose. 
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#437332) #
Glasnow is equally effective vs. lefties and righties, Kiermaier shouldn't play everyday, and Schneider is 0 for his last 26 with 11K.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#437333) #
Keirmaier should play everyday at this point, with the days off in the schedule.  And you can always take him out if they bring in a lefty- Varsho has been hitting lefties as well as Keirmaier anyways. 
As for Schneider's slump.  Two things- he's still hit the ball hard and he is healthy.  Second, Espinal against a RHP at this point sets a very low bar. 

For what it's worth, slump and all, I'd rather have Schneider in the lineup than Guerrero Jr.  When VGJ's knee barks, he needs to sit- it boggles my mind that the manager would sit Keirmaier who is healthy and has been playing very, very well and not Guerrero Jr. who is not healthy and has not been playing so well while hobbled.  Against a RHP yet. 
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#437334) #
Or they could play Horwitz at first and Biggio at second. So many better options.
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Marc Hulet - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#437335) #
Honestly right now I would rather see Horwitz, Kiermaier... heck almost anyone up than a one-legged, slumping Guerrero Jr. Outside of a home run, he's a liability... on a team that already has Kirk clogging the bases.

Catcher Jamie Ritchie is on the taxi squad... wondering Heineman might be a little banged up, which adds another element when making late-game decisions.
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#437336) #
Maybe we should be crediting the Jays' handling of Kiermaier for his offensive production, instead of criticizing them for nights off? He has started 12 of the last 13 games, 9 of which were at home on the turf. Those comments to the media aren't a coincidence.

Horwitz's ABs have been very mediocre lately.

There is nothing wrong with tonight's lineup. The Jays need to win just one game this weekend and they will still be in a playoff spot Monday morning.
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John Northey - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#437337) #
Trying to find a reason to play Espinal outside of wanting Your best defense out there (defeated by playing Merrifield in the OF over Kiermaier). Past 28 days Espinal has hit 366/386/463, but past 14 a 686 OPS, past 7 a 533 OPS, has a 603 OPS vs RHP, 595 OPS on the road. If you wonder about him swinging at that first pitch - he has a 849 OPS when swinging, 578 when he takes the first pitch. 646 OPS with RISP, all the clutch stats have him sub 700 no matter the situation (late & close, tie, ahead, behind, you name it).

Want to really get upset? Glasnow is a ground ball pitcher and against those Espinal has a 416 OPS - generally GB vs FB is a strong tendency for hitters and pitchers - even stronger than LH vs RH. Best on team vs GB pitchers? Schneider of course, then Horwitz. Both on the bench of course. Kiermaier has a 627 OPS vs them this year, a touch better than Varsho's 617 and both far better than Espinal's of course. Biggio is sub 600 vs them, as is Kirk.

Somedays I really do wonder how the Jays decide who to play. Maybe they feel ground ball defense is critical for Bassitt. Bassitt is almost even GB vs FB (217 PA vs 187 PA respectively) but FB hurt him a lot (373 OPS on ground balls, 939 on fly balls). I'd have KK and Varsho out there given that factor.
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#437338) #
I politely disagree with the manager's decisions. I urge him to be better. Sure hope he doesn't lose his job over this kind of stuff tho!
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#437339) #
"Slumping Guerrero" leads the team in OPS over the last 3 weeks.
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Nigel - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#437340) #
If KK does need a night off some time this weekend (I really don't pretend to know the ins and outs of that), then I'd rather they did it tonight as I think this game is the most likely L of the series. Glasnow v Bassitt isn't a favourable match up.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#437341) #
Sure, but Espinal over Horwitz vs a RHP groundballer also. Like I said, playing to lose. You don't want to be doing that with 9 games left in the year.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#437343) #
I agree. Also, it the team wants to see the best of Horwitz, they might want to play him in multiple consecutive games so that he can get more comfortable in the majors. It kind of feels like they’re penalizing him for going 0/4 against Cole and the Yankees yesterday.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#437344) #
When Horwitz was recalled from the minors this summer, John Schneider had him ride the pine until a key late-game, bases loaded, pinch-hit situation. Horwitz had a decent PA but ultimately struck out (if I remember correctly). The outcome of that game might have been different had Horwitz had accumulated some PA to acclimatize to the majors.
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99BlueJaysWay - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#437345) #
I’m with 92-93. I don’t see a problem with the lineup at all.

I would rather have Vlad in the lineup over Horwitz
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#437346) #
I think the suggestion was Vlad DH, Horwitz 1B, Biggio 2B

with Espinal on the bench.
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Nigel - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#437347) #
Game over. (kidding - mostly)
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99BlueJaysWay - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#437348) #
Mike and Marc both called for Vlad being out. Mike wanted Schneider and Marc wanted Horwitz.

They’re fielding their most experienced lineup against a very tough pitcher. That makes sense to me. They went with the better defender at 2B, that also makes sense if you’re anticipating a tough, low-scoring game.

I’m assuming KK needed a day, which I’m fine with. Otherwise him in at CF and Varsho at LF over Whit would have been preferable.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#437349) #
Is Espinal a better defender than Biggio at 2B at this point?

I think I would rather Horwitz’s energy and hitting skill over Espinal’s “experience” at this point. But I would be happy if Santiago proved me wrong.
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christaylor - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#437350) #
Heh, uglyone you're overcorrecting. I'd give favorable odds on JS being done unless there is a playoff miracle.
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Marc Hulet - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#437352) #
Isn't it terrible when the best hope you have is that the Jays hitters will get the pitch count up enough to get into the bullpen before the seventh....
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#437353) #
has there ever been a team this good with less faith in themselves that they'll get a hit?
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Nigel - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#437354) #
It's one thing to get completely shut down by Cole and Glasnow. It happens - they're elite starters. But, its another to see just how easy it seems to be to blow through this line-up.
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soupman - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#437355) #
It seems that's their team approach, too. how many took first pitch heaters in the zone first time through? i know fans complain about them popping up and having 1-pitch at bats, but...when half your lineup can't be relied on to make contact is it really the best strategy to start every count 0-1? i suspect Glasnow will switch it up second time through. It just seems like the Jays are always a step behind and rarely make adjustments on the fly.
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SK in NJ - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#437356) #
This lineup with the season on the line in the next 10 days is inexcusable unless there are injuries that are not being made public. If Glasnow breaks a sweat against this group I’d be shocked. I agree that this is not a “play to win” lineup. It lacks any sense of urgency.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#437357) #
On the positive side, Guerrero Jr. does seem to be in much better shape.  He's running, as opposed to jogging. 
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#437358) #
Cole and Glasnow don’t have zero ERAs. It is possible to score two or three runs against them — and maybe even win the game as a result.

This version of the Jays doesn’t seem to be capable of that.
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#437359) #
You can always tell who doesn't actually watch the games in here.
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#437360) #
does watching it on mute on my phone out of the corner of my eye while watching a classic movie on count?
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#437361) #
Tonight on the Main Screen: Man in the Wilderness (1972), starring Richard Harris

aka the original "The Revenant" movie.


and they score!
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Nigel - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#437362) #
Glasnow wanted no part of Vladdy after that SB.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#437363) #
Watching the game with Patti Smith, Prince, Bowie and Neil Young.  The mute was an absolute necessity. 

The stolen bases were very well-timed.
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Nigel - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#437364) #
Weird - Glasnow completely lost his ability to throw a strike with his FB.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#437366) #
A rally is a beautiful thing.

Am I watching the game in real time? Maybe!
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#437367) #
well when you get a gift of a TB pitching meltdown you really want to come out of this inning with more than 3 runs.

one big hit here. come on.
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#437368) #
The stolen bases were even better timed if you had Sportsnet's sound on.
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#437370) #
heheh
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#437371) #
Glasnow was, I think, unnerved by the two stolen bases.  Pinto looks completely uncomfortable behind the plate and the Jays took advantage. 
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#437372) #
Hicks relieving Bassitt is a nice changeup.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#437373) #
Espinal not doing much on offense or defense.
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#437374) #
That's a killer strikeout pitch for Hicks. Unhittable if he can locate it.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#437375) #
Margot should have been out, if there was any justice in this world.  Trying to take third base with two outs and down by two. 
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#437376) #
P.s. i had to pause the movie. This is good baseball.
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#437377) #
Espinal has looked pretty solid defensively tonight.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#437378) #
He has made several solid plays, but he failed to get Margot on the critical play this inning, despite being fairly well-positioned to do so.
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#437379) #
That was a play Biggio has no chance of making with his arm, if we're still litigating the lineup up 4-2.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#437380) #
It's unusual to see the Rays so tentative in the field.  Pinto, Paredes and now Margot.  Usually when the Blue Jays visit the Trop, the Rays play well. 
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#437381) #
Espinal used to be a better fielder (and hitter). Nice to see him pick up a hit this inning, though.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#437382) #
Given the Jays’ history at the Trop, Varsho’s add-on home run is a welcome development.
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Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#437383) #
Texas leads Seattle 5 - 0 in the 5th. Evan Carter, batting 9th in the order, clubs a 3-run homer.
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Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#437384) #
8 - 0 for Texas at the end of 5.
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BlueJayWay - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#437385) #
I'm feeling 92% confident the Jays will make the playoffs.
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uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#437386) #
felt like a playoffs game, and this time it was tampa that buckled. feels good.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#437387) #
Very good start to the road trip.
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SK in NJ - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#437388) #
That was a big time win. Didn't look good before the game and certainly for the first 5 innings, but came up big when it mattered.
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Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#437389) #
Here comes Seattle.  Now 8 - 4.  Cal Raleigh with a 3-run shot.
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ISLAND BOY - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#437390) #
The lineup that wasn't " play to win " won.
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92-93 - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#437391) #
I still don't even know what that means.

Nice to see two huge swings from Varsho, who they're going to need down the stretch with only RH SP slated the rest of the season.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#437392) #
The Jays are going to need a good season from Varsho next year as well, given that KK recently told the New York Post that he prefers playing on grass (easier on his body) and “especially likes” playing in New York and Boston.

I imagine Bellinger will steer clear of Toronto for the same reason.
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Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#437393) #
The Rays wore the original Devil Rays uniforms tonight.  20 of 30 MLB teams now have the "City Connect" style uniform.  Only a handful look good, to be honest.
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Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#437394) #
Texas wins over Seattle.  Houston loses to Kansas City.
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John Northey - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#437395) #
I don't get why the Rays would ever wear the Devil Rays uniforms - those are from the era they came in dead last every single year, the first year as the Rays they won the division and never looked back. If I ran that team those uniforms would only be allowed in a display case as part of a 'early years' exhibit. Never to be worn again on the field.
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John Northey - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#437396) #
Beginning to wonder if the Houston players have big offseason plans or something - they lost 2 of 3 to Oakland, 3 of 4 to KC now, 2 of 3 to Baltimore (nearly swept). They should be free and clear by now. Not complaining, just weird.

So Jays now 1/2 a game ahead of Texas (leads West), 1 up on Houston, 1 1/2 up on Seattle. Seattle & Houston have 1 more loss than the Jays. So to clinch with 8 games to go the Jays need to go 5-3 to be a lock (Seattle has to lose 3 more or Texas 4 more in the games those 2 have left so that is how I get there, Jays just need to be ahead by 1 game over either of those 2 to make the playoffs, or tied with Houston). A 7-1 record guarantees the Jays finish ahead of Houston, but 5-3 guarantees they finish ahead of either Seattle or Texas, or both. Technically the Yankees have a shot still, but 8 back of the Jays makes them a non-issue for us (Jays would need to lose every game left, Yankees win every game left for that to be an issue - it can happen, 1987...grrr...but is extremely unlikely).

For fun, SD still has a shot - currently leading St Louis 2-1, on a 7 game winning streak, 4 1/2 out of the playoffs at the moment. Still need a LOT to go right, but they have a shot - that would be a heck of a story if they could pull it off. I'm hoping they keep this up so it takes until the final day to either eliminate them or get them in. Still would prefer Miami or Cincinnati to make it in for the NL though.
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scottt - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 05:46 AM EDT (#437398) #
The Twins are just 3 games back from getting themselves a by out of the wildcard game.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:59 AM EDT (#437399) #
The Rays have lost Brandon Lowe for 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. So they are on pace for close to 100 wins despite injuries to (or absences of) McLanahan, Baz, Rasmussen, Springs, Franco, Siri, among others. It's an impressive achievement. They might find it challenging to advance far in the postseason, though.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#437400) #
The negative comments, frustration and lack of faith in the Jays is very understandable to me. The May record was 11W-17L which started the pain. The rest of the season was better. With the right to complain and expectations of failure our frustrations are justified to me.

At Buffalo Barger made a nice catch in RF and doubled out the player on 1st. His D in the OF is good enough it seems.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#437401) #
Only 2 more games at the Trop and the Jays return to the friendly confines of the RC for their last 6. That's good, right? Well, yes and no.

The Jays have a slightly better road record than home record this year. They've played 4 more games on the road and won all 4, so little to no advantage there. Their opponents?c The Yankees are the inverse Jays - played 4 more home games and won all 4. Tampa is the best home team in baseball. But on the road their record is about the same as the Jays.

Elsewhere, Houston is the polar opposite of Tampa. Great road team, but sub-500 at home. The eliminated Mets have been better to their home fans than the Astros have been to theirs.
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Marc Hulet - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#437403) #
Houston has had a tough go with injuries and already entered the 2023 season with limited pitching depth. Yordan Alvarez has been playing hurt all year and Jose Abreu is now showing his age.
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ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#437404) #
Randy Arozarena will miss a few games, at least, with quad tightness and relief pitcher Adam will miss the rest of the regular season after experiencing muscle pain in his side.

Tampa's injury luck is so bad that outfielder Luke Raley hurt his neck shagging fly balls during batting practice when he ran into a non-member of the team who, for some reason, was allowed to shag fly balls. Buck Martinez couldn't believe this was allowed to happen.

Rowdy Tellez pitched the last inning of the Brewer's lopsided win last night. He allowed one hit and had a strikeout.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#437405) #
With Raley, Franco and Brandon Lowe out, the Rays lineup does list right quite a bit. It might be a good day for Ryu to have shortish outing if he's not at his best.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#437406) #
The 3 big disappointments are all NL. Mets and Cards are dead, but as John mentioned last night, Padres still have a chance, even if it's 1.2%. They're the hottest team in baseball, winning 9 of their last 10.

The hottest team in the AL? After getting swept by the Jays the Royals have gone 8-2. Swept Cleveland, 2 of 3 from the White Sox and 3 of 4 from the Astros. The Royals seem to agree with Mike Green the Astros odds should not have been 99%. Under 82% now.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#437407) #
KC plays in the weak AL Central. They have some good hitters. B Witt Jr is the best. Their pitching is bad. Their payroll commitment is good. They may decide that it is time to compete soon.

They have already lost over 100 games this year.
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Marc Hulet - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#437408) #
Old friend Raimel Tapia has been called up by the Rays. He usually plays like an all-star for the first 5-10 games with a new team and then slips into mediocrity...
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John Northey - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#437409) #
It is a fun season. For a few fun stories to watch...
  • Fight for last overall is Oaklands to 'lose'. They have 5 more losses than KC now - 107 to 102. The most losses they've ever had in Oakland is 108 in 1979 when a 20 year old Rickey Henderson came upon the scene (33-11 SB-CS in 89 games). The Philladelphia A's lost 109 in 1915, and 117 in 1016 (yikes). The 117 is safe, but the A's could pass 109 still.
  • The Rockies have 'clinched' dead last in the NL with 97 losses (St Louis next at 87 with 8 to go). The White Sox are the only other team with a shot at 100 losses with 96 so far. So 2-4 teams will have 100+ losses this year.
  • At the other end, Atlanta leads with 99 wins, with the O's at 95, LAD 94, and Rays at 94 - they all have a shot at 100+ wins. No team records will be set though, lowest record is Rays at 100 wins.
  • Jays fighting with the Reds for most saves, tied at 51 each. 49 saves for Atlanta and SF. O's #2 in saves in the AL with 46.
  • Only 2 teams have intentionally walked more than the Jays have - Oakland and LA. Weird. St Louis only has intentionally walked 3 all season.
  • Jays #2 in ERA+ 1 point behind Milwaukee. But 0.01 ahead of Milwaukee in overall ERA. So for a low scoring WS you want Jays vs Milwaukee. For the reverse - worst ERA among contenders is Arizona at 4.55 ERA/96 ERA+, Texas at 4.32/104.
  • For offense, Atlanta is 40 runs ahead of the pack, Oakland dead last by 58.
  • To shock everyone, Jays are only 3rd in most DP hit into - Miami and Milwaukee are higher, Atlanta tied.
  • Only St Louis has left more on base than the Jays - 1127 to 1106.
  • For bunts the Jays are 2nd lowest at 4, only Atlanta has bunted less (2).
  • Jays have the 4th oldest lineup - Mets, Marlins, and Dodgers are older. KC is the youngest. For pitchers the Jays are 3rd oldest, only SD and NYM are older. Not a good sign for the future.
Just a few fun things from looking at the team stats today.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#437410) #
still crazy to me that we tried to contend last year while building a team that needed Tapia to play nearly as a full time starter.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#437411) #
"Rowdy Tellez pitched the last inning of the Brewer's lopsided win last night. He allowed one hit and had a strikeout."

Both BRef and FG agree Rowdy has been a better pitcher than position player this year. Looking very much like a non-tender this offseason.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#437412) #
an actual comeback from an early deficit would do this team a world of good.
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Nigel - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#437413) #
I believe the Jays have only won 5 games all year where the opponent scored 4 or more runs:(. Something like that.
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lexomatic - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#437414) #
Can the Jays do something before 2 outs, please?
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#437415) #
That’s a depressing stat Nigel.

Lots of hard contact against Ryu so far. I’m not sure it’s worth pulling him super early in light of Nigel’s comment
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#437416) #
The stat is incorrect. They have won 3 games surrendering 9 runs or more, 1 game allowing 6 runs, 2 games surrendering 5 runs and several games surrendering 4 runs.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#437417) #
Actually they have won 3 games while allowing 5 runs, for a total of 7 games while allowing 5 runs or more.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#437418) #
a real honest to goodness buncha-solid-hits rally. nice.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#437419) #
keep doing that, Chad.
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lexomatic - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#437420) #
That inning sucked.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#437421) #
Green out for a 2nd inning. Let's see how this goes.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#437422) #
Whatever happens in this game, that was a clutch double by Espinal.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#437423) #
ha. now fairbanks messes it up. love that we're doing this against their best players.

and John Schneider is the Puppet Master today.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#437424) #
Man Chapman took that 99 off the arm like a champ.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#437425) #
Does anyone else find these mollycoddling mound visits by the pitching coach annoying?
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#437426) #
so, so much has happened with 2 outs today.
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#437427) #
A lot of very un-Rays baseball on display by Tampa tonight.

I hope the Jays can hang on
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#437428) #
2nd game in a row like that. The injuries have to take their toll at some point.
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Nigel - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#437429) #
Yes, the Rays look like a boxer who’s taken one too many body blows. Hard to blame them.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#437430) #
Don’t walk Diaz.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#437431) #
was Swanson unavailable?

and I wouldn't excuse the Rays that easy when it's guys like Glasnow and Fairbanks we're doing the damage against.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#437432) #
welp. this doesn't look good.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#437433) #
safe I think.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#437434) #
Diaz was the key batter of the inning. Falling behind him 3-0 set the tone.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#437435) #
put lowe on.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#437436) #
Easy to say now, but that should have been Mayza.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#437437) #
I don't get why they pitched to the lefty with Margot on deck.

And with that, the Rays finally clinch the 1st wildcard and we can no longer catch them.
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#437438) #
Brutal
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Marc Hulet - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#437439) #
I can't believe they used Romano two days in a row after how shaky he looked on Friday and threw so many pitches. Swanson should have been given the first shot.
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#437440) #
Schneider is 0 for his last 30. 12K and 1 walk in this stretch. In another game or two he can set the Jays record for longest hitless streak.
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#437441) #
Since they didn’t give him the 8th or warm him up when Romano went sideways, I think we have to conclude Swanson was unavailable.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#437442) #
Schneider had an HBP, and advanced a runner to third with one out. His K was not helped by a very unfriendly first strike call. He's still got the best offensive numbers on the club, and it's not close.

His BABIP is down to .355. This regression was entirely expected.

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SK in NJ - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#437443) #
Schneider just admitted post game that Romano was dealing with a finger issue last night. Seems irresponsible to use him tonight with a finger issue plus all the pitches he threw less than 24 hours ago. If not irresponsible then at least highly unlikely to yield positive results. If Swanson and Hicks were unavailable then maybe that was the logic there.
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soupman - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#437444) #
Zack Greinke showed the league how to pitch to him.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#437445) #
If Swanson was unavailable, the other option was to send Garcia out for the ninth. He had thrown 13 pitches in the eighth and had the previous 2 days off. Mayza was available to follow if Garcia struggled.

One doesn't know how Romano was feeling. He often will go 3-0 to the first batter and regularly does bounce back from that. It's important to bear in mind that overall he isn't a significantly better pitcher than several in the pen, and so if he's off form due to a combination of minor injury and previous work, you are better off with someone else.

It's funny. I don't particularly have a problem with Romano throwing a third consecutive day if he has had two relatively easy outings and is feeling good.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#437446) #
Romano sometimes goes 3-0 on batter1 and then bounces back, but statistically, that is not a sustainable approach, especially in a one-run game in the Trop. Even more so when battling a finger issue.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#437447) #
Also, Diaz was the leadoff hitter (both in the inning and in the lineup). Going 3-0 on him was inviting trouble.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#437448) #
The Guardians had done the same thing. It works well if the umpire gives the pitchers a few inches outside (as he was doing in the Cole game) and the pitcher regularly hits the edge zone of the outside corner (as Cole did). It doesn't work so well if the umpire calls the game fairly as Schneider regularly will find himself ahead in the count. And ultimately that will not work out well for pitchers.

Sifting is Schneider's game and he is good at it.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#437449) #
Improbably, KC is up 1-0 on Houston in the fifth inning. It would be wonderful for the Jays if KC won tonight’s game.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#437450) #
On the other hand, if you look at WPA as a marker of reliever effectiveness, Romano leads all relievers in WPA from 2021-23 with only Devin Williams close. He had been about as effective this year as the previous 2 years, prior to today's game.

It's tough to make these kinds of decisions. You're not going to take Romano out when he goes to 3-0.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#437451) #
I wasn’t advocating for pulling him after three pitches. Just observing that Diaz was the key batter in that inning (in my opinion) and that Romano put himself in a tough position by falling behind him. I suspect Harvey Dorfman would agree.
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Michael - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#437452) #
Yeah Romano always looks shaky to me. His results have been really good, but he doesn't strike me when watching as a lock down no doubt reliever (even though by numbers he has delivered that, bending but generally not breaking). So if he's not 100% I'm not sure why you bring him in. Once you bring him in, if he's still willing to go and healthy, I can see why you don't pull him (especially once the game is tied and you might need many innings).
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Marc Hulet - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#437453) #
Manager Schneider seems to lack management instincts... or he's receiving some poor advice.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#437454) #
I leave romano in there for sure.

But i'd still walk Lowe and pitch to margot.
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Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#437455) #
The final road game of the regular season.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#437456) #
I know, greenfrog. When Romano goes to 3-0, batters reach base 85% of the time in his career with a slugging percentage of .625. I would venture a guess that against a leadoff hitter in the inning, the OBP would go down and the slugging percentage would go up in accordance with league wide patterns. A double from Diaz is pretty much par for the course once you go to 3-0.
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Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#437457) #
Thank you, Kansas City Royals.
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#437458) #
The Jays are extremely lucky that KC beat Houston again. This is an important development because of the various tiebreak outcomes. Having both Houston and Seattle as currently 70-loss teams opens up more pathways to the postseason for the Jays.

After tomorrow’s game against KC, Houston plays three against Seattle and then three against Arizona.

Seattle’s next eight games are against Texas and Houston.

Texas arguably has the easiest schedule remaining—three games against LAA and five against Seattle. And Texas has Jung and Garcia back in their lineup (but no Scherzer in the rotation).
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greenfrog - Saturday, September 23 2023 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#437459) #
In his young MLB career, 22-year-old Taj Bradley has a strong R/L reverse split. In around the same number of PA (200+) against him, RHB have hit .279/.342/.590 and LHB have hit .226/.294/.374. It will be interesting to see Schneider’s approach to the starting lineup. Some key decisions will be:

-Rest Springer? (He sustained some sort of minor-ish injury today.)

-Merrifield or Varsho in LF?

-If Merrifield starts in LF, who plays CF?

-Who plays 2B? Schneider, Biggio, Espinal?

I’m guessing Biggio will start at 1B, Vladdy will DH, Schneider or Espinal will start at 2B, Merrifield will start in LF, and Varsho will start in CF.
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John Northey - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#437460) #
Wouldn't shock me to see Varsho and Kiermaier in the OF with Biggio in RF, Horwitz at 1B, Merrifield or Espinal at 2B, Vlad DH.
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ISLAND BOY - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#437461) #
Pitchers seem to have figured Davis Schneider out. I'm not saying he can't adjust or be on the club next year but right now I'd rather see Ernie Clement on the team, even if he has less power.

On another note, this past month is the best I've seen Cavan Biggio play, both in the field and at the plate.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#437462) #
Biggio has been amazing.

Bo has been very good to me considering I believe he is playing hurt.

Vlad has still been disappointing to me (holding him to all star standard like Bo).

Romano looks like Romano who blew it last year in the playoffs. Hicks and Green look real good.

Chapman looks toast offensively.

Alejandro Kirk looking pretty good behind the plate and terribly awful offensively.

John Schneider and Vladdy have been unacceptable disappointments for me.

George Springer i'm happy with though he's dropped off he's still contributing.

Berrios looks to be tiring. Ryu looks outstanding sans 1 start. Gausman looks tired. Bassitt has been a revelation. Super gutsy performance on Friday.

Alek Manoah if rumours are true, he's the next Shea Hilenbrand.

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Marc Hulet - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#437463) #
Seems to me like a stronger parallel between Manoah and David Wells... although the former is much more media savvy.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#437464) #
I was partially correct about the lineup. Here is what John Schneider went with:

Springer RF
Bichette SS
VGJ DH
Biggio 1B
Chapman 3B
Kirk C
Varsho LF
Merrifield 2B
Kiermaier CF

It will be interesting to see how the LH hitters fare against the hard-throwing Bradley. Let's hope Varsho is seeing the ball well and can contribute offensively.
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Nigel - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#437466) #
It’s hard carrying a lineup with both Merrifield and Chapman in it these days.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#437468) #
I don't think it's fair to lump those two together. One can hit fastballs over the plate while the other seems to have lost the ability.
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Nigel - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#437469) #
I lumped them together only because both are in prolonged, multi hundred AB, slumps.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#437470) #
eh i really don't like removing the hottest parts of the season and then calling the rest a "slump". it's not really how it works.

last 7 days

* Biggio 149wrc+
* Springer 124
* Merrifield 118
* Kiermaier 108
* Varsho 105
* Chapman 100
* Bichette 80
* Guerrero 71
* Kirk 53
* Horwitz -8
* Schneider -24


last 14 days

* Biggio 149
* Espinal 145
* Guerrero 126
* Varsho 84
* Kirk 78
* Kiermaier 78
* Merrifield 73
* Springer 59
* Chapman 53
* Horwitz 43
* Bichette 39
* Schneider 1


Last 30 days

* Schneider 155
* Espinal 145
* Biggio 143
* Kirk 126
* Springer 122
* Guerrero 121
* Kiermaier 113
* Horwitz 107
* Chapman 69
* Varsho 68
* Bichette 43
* Merrifield 41


trying to figure out which of these guys are "hot" and "cold" is largely an exercise in futility imo.
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Kasi - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#437471) #
Would be nice if Yusei could you know get an out and limit this damage.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#437472) #
rinky dink babip death aka the rays way
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Eephus - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#437473) #
Well, it was fun watching two minutes of that. I just can't with these games at the Trop, and especially with this particular Jays team. Enjoy your Sunday, everyone.
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Nigel - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#437474) #
Chapman since May 1 - 82 wRC+
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Kasi - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#437475) #
Yeah Chapman can go and bring us back a comp pick. No interest in signing him to what he’s likely to be paid.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#437476) #
Will see you at the next game or later when they come back today.
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Nigel - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#437477) #
Well done Whit:). Hehe

That was a good AB from Varsho.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#437478) #
Buck literally just said "this jays team believes they can come back from any deficit" and i think that's the biggest lie I have ever heard in my life.

But the comeback yesterday, the first in forever, may have been big for them psychologically.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#437479) #
Arrived for the 2nd inning.  Timing is everything in baseball.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#437480) #
Nigel,

Do you still think its hard having Merrifield in this line up? Batting 8th and he brings home the first two runs of the game. Goes 1st to 3rd on a single.

5-2 Jays.

Love it!
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#437481) #
INSIDE THE PARK HR!

finally this godforsaken ugly stadium pays off for us.


and all of a sudden these jays are the comeback kids.
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Nigel - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#437482) #
timing is everything in life:) - blind squirrels and all
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#437483) #
"Will see you at the next game or later when they come back today."

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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#437484) #
It sure would be nice if Bowden Francis was around to absorb some innings. 
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#437485) #
big credit to Kikuchi saving that unlucky 1st inning with 3 Ks in a row. that was yuge.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#437486) #
george throwing seeds.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#437487) #
It was a great throw.  By far Springer's best of the year, as Buck said. 
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#437488) #
george springer, folks.
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99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#437489) #
All hail Playoff George!
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Chuck - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#437490) #
Buck literally just said "this jays team believes they can come back from any deficit" and i think that's the biggest lie I have ever heard in my life

Well, the man does love his bullshit narratives. Imagine the character of a team to not give up after being down 2-0 in the 2nd inning!

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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#437491) #
Can't wait until tomorrow to hear Kevin Barker eat his words. He's been complaining that Springer "has 1 RBI in September."
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#437492) #
"Imagine the character of a team to not give up after being down 2-0 in the 2nd inning!"

truly heroic. NEVER SAY DIE!!
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#437493) #
KiKKKKKKKuchi
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#437494) #
It will be Yom Kippur in a few hours, and I am not muting the broadcast. 

Davis Schneider gave Springer the belt of invincibility.  The Rays will be challenging the next time Springer makes a play.
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ISLAND BOY - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#437495) #
Wow, Springer is having the game of his life! Too bad Eephus left -- he's probably still ticked off at the Reds blowing a 9-0 lead last night.
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99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#437496) #
Davis Schneider gave Springer the belt of invincibility. All it demands as payment is an 0-30 stretch
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92-93 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#437497) #
Biggio is incredible.
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Eephus - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#437498) #
Wow, Springer is having the game of his life! Too bad Eephus left -- he's probably still ticked off at the Reds blowing a 9-0 lead last night.

Apparently my leaving turned the tides! You're welcome, everyone. 

Also yes that sucked... currently watching what might be Joey Votto's last game in Cincinnati.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#437499) #
Boy, Dan's eyes are not as good as they were.  Paredes clearly got that one. 
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#437500) #
The decision to remove Kikuchi was not obvious, but I think it was the right call.  He was hit very hard. 
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Magpie - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#437501) #
All it demands as payment is an 0-30 stretch

Springer paid up already, at the end of July.
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99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#437502) #
The offense also had a lot of quick innings today (outside the 2nd). Kikuchi didn’t really get a lot of breathers today
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#437503) #
yep kikuchi was having a rough go don't mind that pull at all.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#437504) #
He was hit very hard.

Let's see... 12 balls in play, 9 hits... that's a BABiP of .750 which is unusual.
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92-93 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#437505) #
With everyone available other than Romano and a day off tomorrow, pulling Kikuchi seemed pretty obvious.

Was there ever a reason given as to why Swanson didn't get the 8th yesterday? Hopefully he's okay.
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99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#437506) #
Chad Green is also out today, according to the broadcast
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99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#437507) #
Richards for Lowe, then Pearson?
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#437508) #
vladdy crushed that
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92-93 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#437509) #
A rocket off the bat of "slumping Guerrero".
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#437510) #
Kikuchi had 3 outs supplied by excellent defence.  Of the 12 hits, there were a couple of 100 mph+ GBs, a100 mph fly off the wall, a bunch of line drives and one 90 mph ground ball through the infield.  No infield hits, no bloops. 
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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#437511) #
I'm also fine with pulling Kikuchi. The "pulling starters too early" complaint is when they are doing well and are on a low pitch count. That didn't apply here. Just have to hope the Jays pen can hold it down for 5 innings presumably without Romano and Green.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#437512) #
and that's the only role i'll ever be comfortable seeing Richards in.

nice job by him.
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Nigel - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#437513) #
That was a crazy good play by Biggio. That was an unusual last hop.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#437514) #
"A rocket off the bat of "slumping Guerrero".

Hello...he's had elite exit velocity all year even during his prolonged slumps. Hitting a home run doesn't mean he's not slumping from expectations. From expectations. From Expectations...


[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#437515) #
Very poor challenge.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#437516) #
Paredes davised that one to left-field. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#437517) #
pray that Green earns a move past Yimi on the depth charts.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#437518) #
Although he hasn’t had a bad season overall, moderate leads just never quote feel secure with Yimi on the mound.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#437519) #
quite not quote
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#437520) #
The Rays have over the season done very well by the umpires.  That has been true in this series too. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#437521) #
Excellent.  They send Chapman with Pinto not looking good and having just had a ball off his throwing wrist. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#437522) #
Another very poor challenge.  What are they doing?
[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#437523) #
Don't they lose the challenge after the 7th anyway? So, just taking a lottery ticket?
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#437524) #
It's like the lawyer who makes every possible argument regardless how much merit.  You don't want that reputation. 
[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#437525) #
Why is Swanson nibbling to the 9th batter?
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#437526) #
Swanson has fallen behind the last three hitters (3-0 on the last two). He’s playing with fire.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#437527) #
The Jays let two challengable plays this weekend go by, Merrifield's steal of 3rd and his slide at home. They exited both games with the challenge in their pocket. Use em or lose em.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#437528) #
Swanson was likely not available yesterday, and hadn't pitched the day before. There was no explanation for that.  He sure doesn't look good. 
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#437529) #
Nice recovery. Kept his composure and pitched aggressively to Basabe.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#437530) #
Failing to challenge highly questionable ones followed by challenging the obviously correct makes you look worse and achieves nothing.  When you complain about a strike zone later,  umpires can rightly roll their eyes. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#437531) #
first multi homer game of the year for vladito.

one little hot streak from vladdy can carry us a long long way.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#437532) #
Another blistering line drive from "Slumping Guerrero"!
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#437533) #
Yep, and Vladdy gets a day off tomorrow to rest his body in preparation for the final week of the season. Perfect.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#437534) #
A 3-3 road trip against NYY and TB, where the opposing starters included Cole and King and Glasnow, would be very respectable.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#437535) #
And 4-2 would be outstanding.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#437536) #
Glad I didn't mute today.  The Bichette and Guerrero homers had a particular pleasant crack. 
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#437537) #
one out away from a sweep.

a sweep woulda been way more fun but ultimately probably doesn't matter.
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hypobole - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#437538) #
Taking 2 of 3 against the best home team in baseball. And it was the much maligned offence that came through this series.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#437539) #
All eyes on the Astros game. They're down by 1 in the top of the 7th.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#437540) #
an added bonus of an Astros loss is that i believe it gives us the chance to officially eliminate the Yankees from the playoffs.
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Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#437541) #
Final W / L record of 46 - 35 in 81 road games. Well done.
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John Northey - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#437542) #
Gotta love it - Jays playing well after getting their butts kicked by Texas, big wake up call. Houston sleepwalking and might be swept by KC. Seattle flopping vs Texas just like the Jays did. Next series is Seattle vs Houston - one has to lose at least 2 of those which should help the Jays a lot. 2nd WC is looking more and more likely now to set up a battle of the East Jays vs Rays winner faces Baltimore. Texas plays the depleted Angels next.
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85bluejay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#437543) #
With all of Tampa's injuries would it be better to play them or the Twins in the 1st round?
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#437544) #
tbh I care more about how the jays are playing than who they play.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#437545) #
6-5 KC heading to the ninth inning.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#437546) #
seattle making a game of it now. only down 2.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#437547) #
9-5 Rangers. Texas has a dangerous offense.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#437548) #
Seattle

* On July 24: 50-50 (.500)
* Next 31gms: 25-6 (.807)
* 23gms Since: 9-14 (.391)
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#437549) #
and the Stros lose.

Jays now 2gms up on the last wildcard and 2.5gms up on the on playoffs mariners.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#437550) #
And now Houston has to play good teams the rest of the way.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#437551) #
oops seattle not going quietly.
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92-93 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#437552) #
I'd rather play BAL than TEX or HOU in the 2nd round, so bring on this version of TB.

It's such a terrible playoff system. We might see the top 3 AL records in the same bracket.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#437553) #
I care more about how the jays are playing than who they play.

This is so, so very correct.

All the teams that make it this far are good enough to win the whole damned thing. There is never a preferred opponent. And whenever you think there is one, and you get them, it has a way of coming back to bite you.
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Eephus - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#437554) #
There is never a preferred opponent. And whenever you think there is one, and you get them, it has a way of coming back to bite you.

I think the 2022 Blue Jays are a good Exhibit A of this.
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scottt - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#437555) #
For preferred opponents, I think about the 2020 Jays who lost on purpose to Baltimore to face Tampa because they were afraid of Cleveland's pitching.

The other thing to me is that facing Tampa at the Trop never feels like an accomplishment.
It doesn't feel like playoffs baseball either.

There are a lot of hitters on this team that the Jays haven't figure how to get out.
A bunch of HRs and a series of spectacular defensive plays is not a good recipe for playoffs success.  

I don't feel any better about Texas, obviously.

The one good thing would be to push Gausman to start game one.
They don't win a lot behind him, but he's their best pitcher.

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85bluejay - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#437556) #
I hope Texas doesn't clinch the AL west before their series in Seattle.
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greenfrog - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#437557) #
It must feel awful being a Houston or Seattle fan right now. Kind of like we felt after the Toronto-Texas series.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#437558) #
I don't think it's fair to lump those two together. One can hit fastballs over the plate while the other seems to have lost the ability.
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SK in NJ - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#437559) #
I’m sure last season Rays fans were thrilled to be facing the Guardians instead of the Jays/Mariners, and Jays fans were likely happy to be facing the Mariners and not the Rays. In other words, just get in. If that means a 3 game series at the Trop, then it is what it is.
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scottt - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#437560) #
Kikuchi said he was tipping. I don't know.
I'm pretty sure they have cameras on the pitcher.

My concern is not about playing the Rays.
It's about playing at the Trop.

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Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#437561) #
The New York Yankees have been eliminated.
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John Northey - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#437563) #
For all the groans and pained feelings a week or so ago - Sept 14th was the 4th loss to the Rangers. I don't think it would touch how Houston and Seattle fans must feel right now. I linked to blogs for each and Houston fans seem to be more 'this is life' types as they just won it all last year so this year is a 'lets stay calm and enjoy the ride' situation but no shortage of 'fire Dusty' posts. Seattle seems more 'we are doomed, lets sign Ohtani'.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#437564) #
rotation as of now:

* Sep26: Gausman (5 days rest)
* Sep27: Berrios (5)
* Sep28: Bassitt (5)
* Sep29: Ryu (5)
* Sep30: Kikuchi (5)
* Oct01: Gausman (4)

In order to avoid having gausman on the last day of the season, you could let someone like Francis start.

or you could just skip Gausman this time through the rotation and line it up like this:

* Sep26: Berrios (4)
* Sep27: Bassitt (4)
* Sep28: Ryu (4)
* Sep29: Kikuchi (4)
* Sep30: Gausman (9)
* Oct01: Berrios (4)

But you wouldn't want Berrios pitching the last game either.

Maybe it's just simplest to keep the same order going and just hope the last game of the season isn't meaningful enough to need gausman.

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Michael - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#437565) #
Yeah, I think you keep the rotation and that way you have Gausman for the last game of the season if it is a must win last game, and skip him with an outside the rotation playoff resting starter if the last game isn't that important and get Gausman for G1 of the playoffs.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#437567) #
yeah i think you're right. hopefully the last game doesn't matter.
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John Northey - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#437568) #
That makes the most sense, keep Gausman for the 'if needed to win' last day of the season, if not needed he gets extra rest for the Wild Card series.

So where are we now?
  • Jays go 6-0, 5-1, 4-2 in playoffs no matter what
  • Jays go 3-3 - need Houston to lose 1 game or Seattle 2 games
  • Jays go 2-4 - need Houston to lose 2 games or Seattle 3 games
  • Jays go 1-5 - need Houston to lose 3 games or Seattle 4 games
  • Jays go 0-6 - need Houston to lose 4 games or Seattle 5 games
Guaranteed one of Houston or Seattle will lose 2 games (play 3 games against each other) so a 3-3 record should be a lock, with 2-4 likely to make it as well. The 1-5 and 0-6 are the pushing your luck situations. The way Seattle is playing them going 0 for the rest of the season is certainly possible. They play Texas again after they play Houston. Major gut check time for them just like it was for the Jays after Texas swept them.

So a sweep of the Yankees would put the Jays in great position, near locks for the playoffs depending on how that Houston/Seattle series goes. Seattle doing well would probably be the best result - If Seattle sweeps Houston, or takes 2 of 3, then the Jays could clinch before Tampa Bay gets here for next weekend. Jays just need to tie Houston in the standings to get into the playoffs, need to be a full game ahead of Seattle or Texas. Jays are 1/2 a game behind Texas as an FYI so to finish ahead of Texas we'd need them to lose 2 more than the Jays do from here on out. The Mariners 'tragic number' is 7 - 7 losses by them, or wins by Houston, or combo gets them out - Houston sweeping them would put them with a tragic # of 1 going into the weekend vs Texas. Like the Jays the Mariners have the tiebreaker vs Houston (even if Houston sweeps them this week).

The NL still has 4 teams with a shot who aren't in the 3 WC slots - slim for SD (2), SF (3) and Cincinnati (4) but possible (tragic number in brackets). Should be a fun final week in MLB.

Jays playoff rotation: I'd go Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt right now, especially against the Rays (no way I'd have Ryu or Kikuchi go against them). Vs the Twins Bassitt has been pounded (1.310 OPS against this year in 1 start), and Gausman hit hard too (911 OPS), Kikuchi 671, Berrios 614 with Ryu not seeing them this year. I'd still have Gausman go but then Berrios and Kikuchi probably, with Bassitt lined up for the ALDS.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#437570) #
Kikuchi said he was tipping.

That probably explains the sudden Pete Walker visit in the middle of an at bat. They spotted it in the dugout.
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John Northey - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#437572) #
FYI: The Yankees went from 1979-1995 with 0 WS wins, 17 years. 20 empty years from creation of the club in 1903 until their first title in 1923. Now after flopping they are on a 14 year streak, 1 year longer than the 1963-1976 no WS win streak. A very entitled fan base which can't believe they have gone that long without a title I'm sure. The only decades they didn't get a title in are 1900, 1910's, 1980's, 2010's, and so far the 2020's.
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Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 24 2023 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#437574) #
Monday late night:

9:38 PM E - Texas (Jon Gray) vs. L.A. Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
9:40 PM E - Houston (Justin Verlander) vs. Seattle (Luis Castillo)

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Gerry - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 05:04 AM EDT (#437576) #
The Jays have to make a decision about what to do with Adam Cimber. The AAA season has finished and presumably his rehab. I suppose he could go back to the complex in Florida but I don't think he would want that. Do the Jays activate him and bounce Pearson to the taxi squad? Or do they release him?
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Jonny German - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#437577) #
His Fangraphs page says Cimber still has all 3 minor league options. I expect he'll simply be optioned to the minors if staying on the IL isn't possbile.

As good as he was in 21 and 22, he's absolutely going to be non-tendered if he makes it to that deadline with the club.
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scottt - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#437578) #
Maybe. It felt like they were trying to confuse the hitter in some way.
Ryu has had problems pitching there as well.
It's easier with guys like Richards and Hicks who still can get outs if the hitter knows a change or a sinker is coming.

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Joe - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#437579) #
Cimber is really, really close to 5 years of service time (if Fangraphs' data and my calculations are correct, he only needs 16 more days), after which he needs to consent to be optioned.

Given how bad he's looked this year, I would be shocked if they brought him up regardless of service time; he's been so good in prior years, I'd bet on him being good again next year, unless his body's entirely failed him.

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scottt - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#437580) #
I don't know about Cimber. He doesn't throw hard so the odds of him getting  back to form are probably very good.
Pop is another borderline case. Still got another option.
I don't think Francis is a possibility. You can only bring a guy up so many times.
Maybe start Zulueta if you don't care about the result?


[ Reply to This ]
Marc Hulet - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#437581) #
To bring Cimber back off the 60-day DL, you have to activate him to the 40-man which means cutting someone off the 40-man, which is full. Same for Otto Lopez...

I would just cut Cimber... unless you add Jansen to the 60-day DL
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hypobole - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#437582) #
3 interesting things last week, ending with a quiz and a question.

Someone mentioned Cinci blew a 9 run lead Saturday. Pittsburgh beat them 13-12. Pittsburgh has had a team since 1882. They had never overcome a deficit greater than 8 runs in their history.

Also Saturday, Padres tied the 1969 Expos record. Lost to the Cards to go 0-12 in extras on the season.

Last Tuesday, Cody Bellinger homered. It was the 1500th HR in Cubs history, the 3rd team to achieve that mark. The Yankees are the leaders. They are 2 shy of 1700, so may hit that mark vs the Jays.

The quiz. Which is the 3rd team with over 1500 HR's?

And the question to which I do not know the answer. The Jays once came back from 10 down and beat the Red Sox, the franchise record. What is the biggest lead the Jays have ever blown?
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Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#437583) #
L-C guesses the Giants.
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hypobole - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#437584) #
Good guess, L-C.
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uglyone - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#437585) #
wait, how did the yanks get eliminated already?

oh, is this something to do with the math of SEA and HOU playing each other down the stretch?
[ Reply to This ]
Waveburner - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#437586) #
hypobole, I believe you are missing a zero on the end of those homerun totals.
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hypobole - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#437587) #
Yeah, it's 15,000 HR's.
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uglyone - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#437588) #
all in all it seems like the playoffs roster would be pretty straightforward if healthy, no?

I guess Schneider still has time to play himself out of a spot, tho.
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ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#437589) #
So, are the Giants the answer to your question, hyperbole? I thought it might be the Brooklyn/LA Dodgers.
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hypobole - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#437592) #
Yes, it is the Giants.
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uglyone - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#437594) #

No MLB batter this season has had a higher percentage of out-of-zone pitches called strikes against him than Davis Schneider. pic.twitter.com/8Msac2AszX

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 25, 2023
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Magpie - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#437595) #
Welcome to the Show, rook.
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hypobole - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#437596) #
Jays are the only team with 4 qualified pitchers. 5 teams have 3. 6 teams have 0 that have been on that team all year, although 2 of those (Cleveland and LAD) added Giolito and Lynn who are qualified.

In fact, there are only 45 qualified pitchers, same as last year. When MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, 96 pitchers qualified. 2011, there were still 94, but that was the last year with 90+. 2014 was the last high water mark with 88 qualified. Then it really began dropping - 78, 74, 58, 58, 61, 40, 39, 45, 45.

Some people are calling for a new definition for "Qualified". Understand the reasoning, but does it really matter?
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hypobole - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#437597) #
Gotta send Schneider back to AAA to teach him to hack at everything.
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John Northey - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#437598) #
This strike zone issue thing makes one wonder if the Jays would be drastically helped by robo-umps. Biggio and Schneider both seem screwed over due to having very good eyes. Sadly a challenge system would probably be wasted by Vlad fairly quickly in any game.
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John Northey - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#437599) #
Y'know, now that the Yankees have said how a guy hits with RISP is going to be a factor going forward for them I suspect Teoscar's agent is drooling over this winter. He is generally though of as a clutch player, with an 801 OPS this year with RISP, 866 lifetime. 894 OPS in the playoffs despite the Jays being swept both times. Given Judge is in RF they'd move Teoscar to LF. Their most common LF this year was Oswaldo Cabrera with a 67 OPS+ (ugh). Yeah, I see a big 5 year $100 mil deal for Teoscar easily there.
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scottt - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#437600) #
From what I can tell, Cimber has only been in 6 minor games throwing 4.2 innings.
Seems like he should need more rehab.

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dalimon5 - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#437601) #
John, now that you mention it, that possibility concerns me. Imagine Judge and Teo 3/4 with a solid bat in front of them and they would basically have what the Jays have but with better numbers relating to RBI.
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John Northey - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#437602) #
Problem for the Yankees is both will be on the wrong side of 30 in 2024. That means the Yanks would be paying for past performance more than what they are now.
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John Northey - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#437603) #
A big problem for the Yankees is for 25 and unders this year they had 8 hitters play, 1 had an OPS+ over 95 - 20 year old Jasson Domínguez in 33 PA but ended his season with Tommy John surgery. Estevan Florial was the other one over 85 (95 OPS+) who also plays CF and had just 46 PA so far (still on roster) - this was his 4th straight year getting a tiny bit of playing time (sub 20 games each year). Weird how the Yankees rush them to the majors then dick around with them up and down. Anthony Volpe is their great hope at SS with an 82 OPS+ at age 22.

So some hope for the Yankees with those kids in CF and SS. But I fully expect them to go stupid on the free agent market due to the pressure of missing the playoffs, maybe firing the GM and manager, thus feeling the need for a splash or two. For the Jays sake hopefully it is more like the 80's Yankees (overpaying for vets, dumping kids in desperate trades, thank you for McGriff btw) than the 90's version (smart planning, building a dynasty).
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Mike Green - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#437605) #
The Immaculate Grid over at Baseball Reference has a Blue Jay row today.  My rarity score for the Blue Jay row was 1.4%.  See if you can get lower. 
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#437606) #
Always fun when there is a Jays column - 1.0% - all relievers seems the way to get a low score.
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Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#437607) #
Houston takes an early 4 - 0 lead in the 3rd.  The Mariners are fading fast.
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Marc Hulet - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#437608) #
Luis Castillo is getting smoked by the Astros tonight and seems to have switched to manual signals and away from pitchcom...
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Nigel - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#437609) #
Interesting. One of life’s truisms is that cheaters don’t cheat just once.
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John Northey - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#437610) #
Poor Seattle - from being tied with the Angels in postseason odds in July, to 90.2% on Sept 2nd, down to 45.5% before today and dropping fast.

For the east, the Yankees had the best odds in April (82.4%) but have been near 0% since Aug 20th (0.5% then, 0 now). Red Sox never reached 40%, but didn't drop sub 1% until Sept 12th. Tampa started at 61.3% but never were that low again, cracking 90% on April 10th and never dropping below 90 again. Baltimore started in the toilet at 10.4%, down to 7.9% on April 2nd, pretty much just climbed from there cracking the 90's and staying there on July 31st, hitting 100% on Sept 4th.

Jays started at 72%, 87.8% on April 29th, 45.8% on May 27th, back up to 79.3% on Sept 10th, pounded down to 33.6% on Sept 14th (that 4 game sweep was a killer), back up now to 97.7%, basically needing to do a 1987 to blow it now. 6.2% shot at winning it all (best in AL is 8.5% for the Rangers, 8.4% Astros, 6.7% O's, then Jays). For the NL it is Atlanta 23.8%, Dodgers 13.5%, Phillies 8.1%, Brewers 5.9%.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#437611) #
Unfortunately Teoscar's amazing RBI Skill seems to have abandoned him down the stretch.

Fickle, fickle RBI.
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Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#437612) #
Yordan Alvarez stroked a 439 ft. homer in the 3rd. Kyle Tucker added a 419 ft. shot in the 6th. The Astros lead 5 - 0.
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James W - Monday, September 25 2023 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#437613) #
wait, how did the yanks get eliminated already?

oh, is this something to do with the math of SEA and HOU playing each other down the stretch?

Yes, that is why. After the afternoon game, NYY is 6 games behind Houston and 5.5 games behind Seattle, and would need to catch both to make the playoffs. Or, NYY's elimination number is 1 on Houston and 2 on Seattle. Since Houston plays Seattle, 3 games will be won, so NYY cannot catch both teams.
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Super Bluto - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 01:53 AM EDT (#437615) #
In fact, there are only 45 qualified pitchers, same as last year. When MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, 96 pitchers qualified. 2011, there were still 94, but that was the last year with 90+. 2014 was the last high water mark with 88 qualified. Then it really began dropping - 78, 74, 58, 58, 61, 40, 39, 45, 45.

And it's not like any relievers are working 100 plus IP either. Highest so far this year is the Rangers' Stratton with 82.

I guess the bullpens are much deeper now than they ever used to be?
[ Reply to This ]
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 01:53 AM EDT (#437616) #
My rarity score for the Blue Jay row was 1.4%.  See if you can get lower.

I went with Scott Downs - Jason Frasor - Luke Prokopec for 0.6%. I patted myself on the back for summoning Prokopec's name from the depths of memory, but then spent some time second-guessing myself on whether he'd played in the majors for LA. Turns out he pitched 159 innings as a Dodger vs 72 as a Blue Jay.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#437617) #
My Dodger was Mike Sharperson. Prokopec was very good.

I avoided relief pitchers entirely- my memory of their typically wandering paths is, I find, unreliable.
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mathesond - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#437618) #
My Dodger was Ron Fairly, and was surprised to see him as high as 0.9%, giving me 1.8% for the columns (Schofield and Navarro being the others).
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#437619) #
Fairly was unique in that he had significant time with the Expos, Jays and Dodgers. Canadian fans of a certain age remember him more than others from the time.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#437620) #
What record do the Blue Jays have to have in their final 6 games to ensure a playoff spot? I have to check the worst-case scenario with 3 way ties, I think.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#437621) #
It looks like they have to go 3-3 to guarantee a spot.  If they go 2-4, they will end up with 73 losses.  If the Rangers win their next 2 games, they will finish with a maximum of 72 losses.  If the Astros and Mariners split the next two, the Astros will have 72 losses and the Mariners 73.  The Mariners can then sweep the Rangers and  the Astros can sweep the D' Backs in their final series, and the Jays end up tied with the Mariners for the last playoff spot and they lose the tiebreaker.  Unlikely, but best not to leave it to someone else. 




[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#437622) #
Seattle can get super hot (unlikely) and win all 6 games left. Which means Texas would lose all 4 and I hope Texas loses 1 against LAA, Houston would lose 2 and then take on the young Arizona D Backs for 3 games who are in a playoff race 3 against CWS and 3 Houston.

For the Jays I can't do the calculations but 2 or 3 wins should be enough.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#437623) #
The Mariners can still win 90 games, but if they do they limit Houston to 89.
That means 90 wins gets the Jays in and 3-3 in the last 6 would do it.

Seattle had 10 games against teams in front of them and have dropped the first 4, so I wouldn't bet on them winning the next 6.

Seattle winning 5 games could keep Houston on top and 90 wins are still needed.
If Seattle only wins 4, the Jays might only need to reach 89. And so on.
If Seattle goes 3-3 the Jays only need one more win.

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#437624) #
Once the next 2 games are played we could have a playoff spot I think/hope. Thanks to everyone who did math. Time for me to relax now. I will only fret if the last 2 games are meaningful.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#437625) #
I hadn't realized that VGJ has significant reverse splits over this career.  Against RHP, he's hitting .286/.355/.507 with IsoP of .221 and BABIP of .304 and 65 DPs in 1960 PAs (3 seasons worth).  Against LHP, he's at .265/.354/.434 with IsoP of .178 and BABIP of .262 and 26 DPs in 630 PAs (i.e. just under 1 season).  There's an element of BABIP luck perhaps, but it does seem from both the IsoP and the granular batted ball data that he has hit the ball harder against RHP.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#437626) #
I went with Justin Speier, Sergio Santos, and Justin Miller for a 0.504%.

Miller wore the tattoo sleeve before Brandon League.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#437627) #
Vladdy hits the breaking balls well. Against a lefty he's seeing fastballs and change ups, mostly.
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#437628) #
For it I used Eichhorn, Frasor, and Quantrill for a score of 1%. 92-93 did a better job on odd relievers. I suspect rarity has to do with how little they played with each team and how long ago it was.
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Paul D - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#437629) #
Mike Sharperson was a good answer for the Dodgers/Jay grid. (My other choices were not low rarity)
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#437630) #
That's true, Scottt.  Vladdy in particular has a lot of trouble against changeups from LHP.  The Statcast data shows that he has higher whiff percentages, lower launch angles and lower EVs against change-ups from LHP.  The league has noticed this and has increased the % of change-ups by LHP the last two years to 26%.  He has done a little better this year, but still didn't have an extra-base hit among the 120 change-ups he saw from LHPs.  You'd think that the short right field fence would make it easier to launch one into the bullpen if you were looking for it, but Vlad's timing seemed to me to be messed up when he tried to do that. 
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#437631) #
My other answers were not as good- Junior Felix for the Angels and he who shall not be named for the White Sox.  I should have been disqualified for naming him in the grid!
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scottt - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#437635) #
A good hitter can identify a pitch from the rotation of the ball but a good change up will have similar rotation as the fastball. It's more of a guessing game.

Also, a hitter can set on pitch and foul the others. This is not Vladdy's MO.
He's more likely to put it in play.

Those are really advanced things to work on and the Jays have often not seen a lot of low velo lefties because of the lack of balance of the lineup.

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John Northey - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#437636) #
With the magic number dropping quickly (I think it is 3 now) the Jays should be a lock for the playoffs. The question becomes rotation and pen and end of the bench.
  • Rotation: (3-4) Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Kikuchi (in that order) with Ryu staying ready if someone gets hurt but not on the roster (no Kikuchi in round 1 either)
  • Pen: (9-10) Romano-Hicks-Mayza-Green-Swanson-Cabrera-Garcia-Richards (8) all locks. Pearson-Francis-Jackson all fighting for those last 1-2 slots, I'd put in Francis in case of multiple innings needed, then Jackson as I like him a lot more than Pearson.
  • Bench: Heineman (Jansen hurt), Biggio, Espinal, Schneider (with Merrifield starting most likely). I suspect the Jays would like to find a slot for Eden as a pure speed guy on the bench but that spot isn't there unless they skip one of Biggio, Espinal, or Schneider which I don't see happening. Maybe start Schneider (if he gets that bat results going again - he is still hitting line drives but right at people) and have Merrifield as the burner on the bench.
It'll be a fun time. Hopefully the Jays make it to round 2 at least this time.
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Hodgie - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#437647) #
I don't know John, leaving Kikuchi off the roster when he has arguably been the team's second-best starter after Gausman seems like a choice I wouldn't be making. If nothing else, he is surely better than most of the bullpen arms listed.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#437650) #
I don't think Francis or Jackson are in the mix at all.

The only real question imo is whether they sacrifice a pitcher (Ryu or Cabrera) in order to keep Eden on the roster.
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 26 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#437651) #
Hadn't thought of going with 14 hitters, 12 pitchers. But yeah, that's a good option. With a max of 3 games it could work.
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