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The last road trip of the season begins in the Bronx, with three games against the also-ran New York Yankees.


Also-rans! I like the sound of that.

So what do they even have to play for, these also-ran Yankees? Besides making sure Gerrit Cole finally wins his first Cy Young?

They could do their GM a solid, in the unlikely event that ballplayers care about such trivial matters. This is Brian Cashman's twenty-sixth season as the Yankees GM, and that matches the tenure of the very first Yankees GM, the great Ed Barrow. Barrow and Cashman now share the record for longest term as any team's general manager. The Yankees have four World Series titles during Cashman's time. That falls far short of Barrow's ten championships, but Cashman has one achievement even Barrow couldn't match. Cashman's Yankees have never had a losing season. Even Barrow's Yankees lost more games than they won on one occasion (it was 1925, the year of Babe Ruth's legendary "bellyache.") The Blue Jays have had ten losing seasons during the same period, and Ross Atkins is the fourth Jays general manager Cashman has had to deal with.

The Yankees last losing season was in 1992, and they still need to win another five games in order to spare themselves, and their GM, such ignominy. Be good if they had to do that in Kansas City.

So many things have gone wrong for the 2023 Yankees that the fact that they have indeed still managed a winning record merits a little respect. But just a little, because a few of the things that went wrong were fairly predictable. If we know one thing in this life, it's that ballplayers past the age of 30 tend not to improve. They usually go the other way, and they very often get hurt while it's happening. Aaron Judge has been magnificent, which is not too surprising. He's also missed more than 50 games, which is also not too surprising - he's done it twice before. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Josh Donaldson - all three of them looking up at the Mendoza Line, and only Stanton is still a Yankee. He's missed 50 games as well, as has Anthony Rizzo. And no one, except Judge and Gleyber Torres, has hit a lick.

There were issues on the mound, where proven quality starting pitchers submitted very disappointing performances. Not Gerrit Cole - he's been awesome. But Nestor Cortes who came out of nowhere with an outstanding All-Star season in 2022 has made just 12 rather ordinary starts. Free agent Carlos Rodon didn't make it onto the mound until July, and hasn't pitched very well since getting back in the rotation. Luis Severino, who last season appeared to have made it all the way back from three years of injuries, has been bad. Domingo German was erratic, and ended up on the restricted list.

The Story So Far

The Jays visited the Bronx way back in April, when we were all so much younger than we are today.

Fri 21 April: Toronto 6 New York 1 - Yusei Kikuchi was sharp, allowing just one run through six. Guerrero's two-run homer in the first gave him an early lead, and Belt added another two-run homer and a two-run double for additional support.

Sat 24 April: Toronto 2 New York 3 - Gerrit Cole and Alek Manoah threw zeroes at one another until the bullpens took over, and it was the Yankees striking first when Volpe reached Garcia for a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth. But the Jays tied it in the top of the ninth on Jansen's two-run homer off Peralta. So we went to the bottom of the ninth with Romano on the hill. Rizzo led off with a double, went to third on a Torres single, and scored on LeMahieu's single.

Sun 25 April: Toronto 5 New York 1 - This was a scoreless pitcher's battle between Gausman and Schmidt until the Jays struck suddenly in the sixth, with a two-run homer from Guerrero and a solo dinger from Varsho. Gausman allowed just three hgits and struck out 11 in seven shutout innings.

The Yankees came to town in mid-May, at a moment when the Blue Jays were feeling pretty good about themselves (they had just swept the mighty Atlanta Braves.) The Bombers put an end to that right quick...

Mon 15 May: New York 7 Toronto 4 - The Yankees jumped on Alek Manoah for three runs right away - Judge homer, Torres single, Calhoun homer - and added two more in the fourth inning on a couple of hits and three walks. The Jays did all their scoring in the bottom of the eighth, achieving little beyond creating a Save Opportunity for Michael King.

Tue 16 May: New York 6 Toronto 3 - A weird, memorable affair. The Yankees jumped out to a 3-0 lead against Gausman, but starter Domingo German was ejected after three perfect innings and the Jays tied it up in the fifth on Kiermaier's homer and successive hits from Springer, Bichette, and Guerrero. The game was tied at 3-3 when Judge came to bat in the eighth against Jay Jackson with Hicks on base. And Judge seemed to be looking somewhere off to his right for... inspiration, perhaps?

Wed 17 May: New York 0 Toronto 3 - Gerrit Cole was sharp and Chris Bassitt was even sharper. Neither team could score until we got to extra innings. With the Zombie Runner in place, Merrifield reached on an error and Danny Jansen sent everyone home happy with a three-run walkoff.

Thu 18 May: New York 4 Toronto 2 - Torres led off with a single, Judge followed with a homer and the Yankees had a lead they would hold all evening. Twice the Jays closed to within a run, but no closer.

Matchups!

Tue 19 Sep - Kikuchi (9-6, 3.81) vs Schmidt (9-8, 4.56)
Wed 20 Sep - Gausman (11-9, 3.40) vs King (4-6, 2.77)
Thu 21 Sep - Berrios (11-10, 3.49) vs Cole (13-4, 2.81)
Toronto at New York, September 19-21 | 172 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#437140) #
Both teams have been struggling to get hits and at generating runs - and the weather has cooled down in the evenings. I feel like we're going to get a 1-0 no-hitter in Game 1 or the complete opposite -- a 12-11 slugfest.
Ducey - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#437141) #
I'm protecting my emotional stability by telling myself I dont care if the Jays make the playoffs.

So I will be satisfied if the boo birds come out to yell at the home team and Cole has a meltdown.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#437146) #
When they decided to tear down classic Yankee Stadium (yeah, it was drastically changed in the 70's I know I know) they really should've gone for something new and used the retractable roof like the Jays have and many other teams now have (Arizona, Rangers, Brewers, Miami, Seattle, and Houston). I don't get building a park in snow risk areas without a retractable roof nowadays. Yeah, it was crazy expensive when the SkyDome was built, but now it is just part of the costs of building a stadium - in terms of extra cost it is around $100 million upfront plus maintenance. But given the extra revenue from stable start times, from knowing your fans won't be frozen in spring and fall, knowing your players will be at a lower risk of getting hurt due to that cold weather (and rainy weather too) I'd think that cost would be seen as an investment instead. Yet outside of the Jays, Mariners, and Brewers the rest are in hot weather climates with zero snow risk but insane heat instead (40 celsius in summer). Cleveland, Baltimore, NY, etc. could all use retractable rooves but they don't have them. Sigh.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#437147) #
Schneider starts over Horwitz tonight despite Schmidt's extreme career splits - LHB have an .879 OPS compared to RHB's .630 OPS. He's 0 for his last 20 with 8K and 1BB, and 3 for his last 34 with 15K and 2BB.

Ideally they stay away from Green and Swanson tonight so they can avoid using them a 3rd time in 4 days.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#437150) #
Or they could have used Horwitz at first base and Biggio in right-field for Springer. 

Schmidt was much more effective against RHBs last year when he was working out of the pen.  Perhaps his curve was sharper in shorter outings. 


Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#437151) #
Jerry Howarth asked Brian Cashman: " Why not build a roof for the new Yankee Stadium? "  Cashman made a joke that it would double the overall cost.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#437152) #
Great start to the game so far!
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#437153) #
Well so much for that
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#437154) #
How many GIDPs does John Schneider have to see before he starts employing the running game in those situations?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#437155) #
Kikuchi doesn't have much.  Early hook please. 
uglyone - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#437156) #
homeruns feel good.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#437157) #
Kirk used to be able to take a pitch to right.  Why wouldn't you do that on a 3-1 pitch in Yankee Stadium?  When the pitcher has thrown 75% changeups outside. 
uglyone - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#437158) #
now that's a double play.

nice turn, Davis.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#437159) #
Davis Schneider has experienced regression on his BABIP (now down to .373).  Schneider still has about 30% line drives, and he's pretty close to par on the BABIP in light of his line drive rate.  His process remains good and the results should follow. 
Ducey - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#437160) #
Baserunning circus continues!
Nigel - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#437161) #
Just a staggering number of non base stealing outs on the bases this year.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#437162) #
At this point, if the Jays go 8-4, they’re guaranteed a playoff berth.
A lower record would require Seattle or Texas to lose a game outside of their direct head to head games (which seems like a good bet based on their recent play).

They’re in a great spot. I hope they can get to 8 ASAP so we can all take a deep breath
AWeb - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#437163) #
The baserunning woes I've seen the most of seem like a lot of guys not quite as fast as they once were. Chapman, Springer, Guerrero, Jansen, Belt.

Though Stanton and Kirk might be the only 2 doubled up on that nice Bichette play. Stanton has had a few notable slowpoke moments this year, I guess constant injuries have caught up to him.

Interesting strike zone tonight.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#437164) #
Like the Kirk TOOTBLAN, I was fine with George’s aggressiveness.

To me, if you’re the aggressor and the play is close, I’m fine with it.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#437165) #
A MUCH better outing from Richards. It would be great if he gets back to form
Polite Nate - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#437166) #
I think the Jays will win the WS this year simply because that will be the funniest outcome. Years later people will ask us, "Hey, remember the 2023 Blue Jays?" and we'll respond, "Yeah! World Series champs, it was awful, absolute misery!"
92-93 - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#437167) #
That was fantastic baserunning by Springer. It would have been disappointing if he didn't hustle out of the box and try for 2 up 4-1.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#437168) #
Hicks 102 MPH called strike three to end the eighth. Impressive.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#437169) #
Kirk also used to be able to pull for power.

just like that!
Chuck - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#437170) #
Giancarlo Stanton, fan favourite. 32MM. 2 K, 2 GIDP. Still owed 128MM.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#437171) #
New York style pepperoni pizza.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#437172) #
I’m happy for Biggio that he’s at least worked his way into the super-sub role we had once imagined for him. He may be in the conversation for 3B next year, even if he once seemed out of his element there. He’s looked good there recently, as he has at a number of positions.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#437173) #
Watching these Yankees you can see why the stadium had so many fans disguised as empty seats. Stanton looks like he wants to be anywhere but there, Judge clearly has issues with his legs as he wasn't running anymore than 50% (much like Vlad right now) but the Yankees can't afford to sit him to recover as he is about it for offense there. They reminded me of the late 80's Yankee teams - a shadow of their former selves. Hopefully it stays that way at least for the Jays games against them :)
Nigel - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#437174) #
Chuck - all true about Biggio. However, I’m not sure I see a better option as the 80% starter at 2B next year. He did have his best stretch as a player when just left to play his natural position on a regular basis.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#437175) #
I should add that I hope the Jays give Vlad a day off tomorrow - let those legs heal. Horwitz at 1B, Biggio somewhere in the field, and whoever else at DH. Maybe Clement at SS to give Bo a half day off at DH despite how well Bo is playing. Don't want him getting hurt again.

Meanwhile O's beating the Astros, but sadly the Rangers are beating the Red Sox and the Mariners are beating A's. Still, we know no matter what one of Seattle or Texas will lose 72 games this year (one has to lose 4 of 7 between them) so the Jays can lose 4 and not worry about making the playoffs thus a 7-4 record from here on out locks them into the playoffs and a 91-71 record. Odds are very good that a 90-72 record does the job too (given how those other 2 have played lately) so a 6-5 record should be safe, maybe even a 5-6 record, with a 4-7 record still having a good shot at doing it. Each win makes that task a little easier.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#437176) #
I’m not sure I see a better option as the 80% starter at 2B next year.

I took it as a given that the 2B job will be Schneider's to lose at the start of spring training. Do you see him as a LF instead (with Varsho's impending move to CF)?

Nigel - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#437177) #
Yes that’s how I see things. Although, I have felt for a while that Schneider’s best role might be the super sub role (on the basis that I’m not sure he plays any position particularly well but also appears to play them all at some level of competence). Where Schneider’s bat levels out at is also still a big question mark for me. Frankly, the OBP that both Biggio and Schneider may offer may lead you to want both in the lineup on most days.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 19 2023 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#437178) #
Kikuchi says it was cramps.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#437179) #
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2718628

Poor guy only got 11 hours of sleep the night before. Is he a newborn in disguise? He is kinda baby faced.
Michael - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#437180) #
I wonder if that is only the night before he starts or if that is always? "only" 11 hours from a usual 13 hours!

I'd like to average 6 hours a night of sleep, tend to closer to 5 hours on average, and have doctor's orders to be in trouble on nights where I don't get at least 4. I've had double digit hours (I.e., 10+ hours) sleep just 4 times in the past 4 years, the last time was Dec 23 2022, and none of the 4 hit 11 hours (although one was 10 hours 57 minutes), so Kikuchi's not enough sleep was more sleep than I've seen since 2019. I know LeBron James was said to get 12 hours a day of sleep to stay in top game shape (but I think that was 9 hours a night and 3 hours nap).
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#437181) #
Leaside Cowboy does not have a bed, like Crocodile Dundee.
scottt - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#437182) #
Schneider seems to play a decent 2B. He turns the double plays just fine. He's not great at applying the tag, but none of the Jays are.

Biggio became a serious prospect in AA when started uppercutting the ball.
Over the year, due to injuries and other factors like variations in the balls, he hasn't shown the power needed to sustain that approach. So now, he's flattened his swing and let his excellent eye at the plate take him more into a contact hitter profile.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#437183) #
I'm worried that Tampa Bay is still playing meaningful games for the division.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#437184) #
Kikuchi says it was cramps.

He should follow the sage advice of his countryman.

bpoz - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#437185) #
For next year D Schneider/Biggio/Espinal can cover 2B/3B to start. Barger and Orelvis contribute at some time. Barger has experience at SS/2B/3B/LF/RF.

Don't know if the Jays will pay for an expensive FA. If the Jays go far into the playoffs ownership will want repeats of the revenue that will be pouring.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#437186) #
Much has been written about Freddie Freeman, as he puts in the best season of his career at age 33.  True to my Hall Watch roots, I took a peek at his chances.  I ran a Stathead search using firstbasemen through age 33 with 7000<PA<9000 and 135<OPS+<150 (Freeman has 8000 PAs and an OPS+ of 142).  I got 4 names- Orlando Cepeda, Boog Powell, Eddie Murray and Freeman.  Cepeda and Powell were nowhere near as durable and on the obvious downslope by their early thirties.  Eddie Murray was really the only comparable player.

Freeman has raised his career batting average to .301 with his stellar performance in his early 30s.  It's easy to imagine him ending up at 10,500 PAs with 3,000 hits, in which case he will go in easily.  Can he put in another 3 years of above-average performance over the next 4 or 5?  If so, and I think he can, he's a Hall of Famer.  Goldschmidt and Freeman are not Gehrig and Foxx, but still a pretty fine 1-2 punch for the National League of our time. 
Ducey - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#437187) #
Biggio has shown enough to be in the mix for next year. The question is where.

I wonder if he could be the strong side of a platoon at 3B. He has looked pretty decent at 3B recently. My worry is he will be exposed defensively over a season.

And for as much as I have dumped on the hitting coach, someone seems to have helped Cavan learn to hit the other way again, handle the high strike, and be less passive.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#437188) #
Freeman has 56 doubles so far. That's the most since 2000 when 2 players hit more. Todd Helton was the leader with 59. Who was the other?

Bonus 2000 question. 21 players hit more than 40 doubles that year. 5 of those 21 started their careers as Blue Jays. Who?
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#437189) #
Worded the 1st part poorly. No player has hit more than 56 since 2000. Jose Ramirez hit exactly 56 in 2019.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#437190) #
Delgado McGriff Olerud Kent Green
uglyone - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#437191) #
I'll take delgado to answer the first question too.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#437192) #
Not bad, uglyone. Delgado hit 57. Got 3 of the other 4. McGriff only hit 18.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#437193) #
I'm not good at remembering players who played at certain times but the Red Sox hit a lot of doubles off the Green Monster so maybe Wade Boggs as one of the 21?

I did look up the stats of the 2000 Jays. They were a good hitting team with 5 or 6 players over .800 OPS but their pitching, outside of David Wells, really sucked. Roy Halladay was doing his Alek Manoah impression, only worse.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#437194) #
1999 was Boggs last year. The only Red Sox player of the 21 was Nomar.

Of the 5 in the quiz, Johnny O was in SEA, Green LAD, Kent SFG. Carlos and the other player were both still Blue Jays.
soupman - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#437195) #
I would think Shannon Stewart was one.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#437196) #
Stewart it is. Olerud 45 doubles in 2000, Green 44, Stewart 43, Kent 41.

This year Seager with 41 is the only player besides Freeman with 40 so far. Chapman tied for 3rd with 38. Next best Jays are Vlad and Bo with 28 each.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#437197) #
With Muni, it was lack of bananas. With Yusei, lack of sleep. Apparently only got 11 hours the night before, as opposed to his usual 13 hours.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#437198) #
Muni said that monkeys don't get cramps.  In addition to eating more bananas than humans, monkeys also get more sleep.  However, cramping is associated with low blood potassium levels. 

The takeaway: eat bananas and get lots of sleep.  Cramps are for punks.
Cracka - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#437199) #
Cam Eden has been recalled and will be active tonight. Ernie Clement optioned, Mason McCoy DFA. Bit of a strange move adding another RH bat with a string of RH starters coming up.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#437200) #
I anticipate some pinch-running...
Glevin - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#437201) #
"Cam Eden has been recalled and will be active tonight. Ernie Clement optioned, Mason McCoy DFA. Bit of a strange move adding another RH bat with a string of RH starters coming up."

Calling Eden a bat is a bit generous. He's on the team to be a pinch runner. I think with Chapman back, finding time for Clement was hard so thought a pinch runner would have more value which I get.
Ducey - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#437202) #
Exciting for Eden.

He is 53-4 on steals this year. Perhaps they are envisioning a pinch runner role come playoffs and want to test him out.

He would be eligible for post season play, right?
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#437203) #
Yep, Eden will be Kirk's wheels.  Ernie Clement should get another look next year. 
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#437204) #
I liked what I saw from Clement. I think I'd rather have the RH PH ability of Clement over the pinch running ability of Eden but I accept its all very much at the margins of utility.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#437205) #
With Kirk playing almost every day, I think that Eden is more valuable. There's just such a difference in run expectancy with Eden on first as compared with Kirk.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#437207) #
Fair enough Mike but I guess I look at it as: what's the value of the difference between Eden and Clement on the base paths versus the difference between Eden and Clement at the plate when your other likely RH PH options are Merrifield and Espinal? Given where Merrifield is at right now I'd rather lean into Clement at the plate but I can see the alternative view. If Jansen weren't injured it would be a no brainer that Eden was the better choice.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#437208) #
Some might see the addition of Genesis and Eden as moves of biblical proportions. Others might view them as garden-variety acquisitions.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#437209) #
Nigel, Clement may well be the better PH option over Whit or Espinal, but would Schneider PH Clement over those 2? Maybe, but I doubt it.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#437210) #
No - I agree that Schneider would be first choice if he's not playing but I'm assuming that Schneider will be in the line-up most days (somewhere).
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#437211) #
Sorry - completely misread that. Fair point hypobole. I was merely explaining why I would choose Clement over Eden. But if your prior is that Schneider wouldn't use him anyway (a fair thought given how Schneider has managed his personnel this year) then sure Eden is the right choice.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#437212) #
I like an elite pinch runner on the bench.

Question really is clement v espinal v merrifield.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#437213) #
the addition of Genesis and Eden as moves of biblical proportions

Bravo!

John Northey - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#437214) #
I see more value from Eden than Clement at this stage with this team - I remember 2015 where Dalton Pompey was called up for the playoffs 5 times used, 4 stolen bases, 0 CS and even got a hit the one time he batted. Sadly only scored once, but boy was he fun to watch on the bases. With the Manfred Man in extras he could be very useful, not to mention with Kirk on the roster, and Vlad having leg issues. Given Biggio is hitting well now who does Clement hit for? Heineman if he starts (rare), maybe for Horwitz, but that's about it. Yeah, he is a better hitter than Espinal but for some reason the manager loves him.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#437215) #
Tough day on the out-of-town scoreboard. Time for the Jays to maintain their position in the standings.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#437216) #
I think Varsho should be hit for regularly against LHP (and even some RHP) in late game situations. Biggio doesn't have a platoon split but each of Biggio and KK are candidates for a RH PH in the right circumstances.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#437217) #
You don't want to hit for both Varsho and Kiermaier against a LHP very often. Strangely, both have been adequate in the role thos year and Kiermaier has been ove the last 3 years.

With the pinch-hitter penalty of 5%, it's dubious whether Clement for Keirmaier would be much of a plus.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#437218) #
I was impressed with Eden but did not say enough about him. Speed, D and I think a strong arm. Sounds like a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Maybe more. He can actually hit a little but will have to prove it at the ML level.

For some reason (compassion) I like to see a prospect get to the majors for the benefits of pension and health care. Also the feeling of success.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#437219) #
After a few days of near perfect out of town scoreboards we were bound to have a reverse - Houston, Seattle, and Texas all won today (Texas 15-5). So at the end of the day it'll either be a 3 way tie for 2 wild cards or the Jays will have a full game lead on Seattle and Texas.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#437220) #
VGJ out of the lineup and Merrifield in, while Davis Schneider rests. 
hypobole - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#437221) #
Eden had great SB numbers for Buffalo. But now that he's wearing a Blue Jays uniform it makes me wonder - what comes first, a SB or a picked off/caught stealing.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#437222) #
Gonna be a great night for Gausman with the insanely low pitches being called strikes.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#437223) #
I don't know, Chuck.  He's having difficulty throwing it over the plate.  He might be out in the 4th inning. 
Chuck - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#437224) #
True, his splitter seems to be fading right rather than dropping straight down.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#437225) #
He's also yanking the fastball quite a bit.  I always wondered what "yankees" meant. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#437226) #
Gausman looks a bit tired this inning.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#437227) #
Outstanding work by Gausman tonight.

Wonder if we’ll see Eden on the basepaths in the next few innings.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#437228) #
Green looked great tonight as well. Good life on his pitches and excellent command.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#437229) #
the results have been spotty but I think the velo is all the way back for Green.

one potentially key development over the last 10gms of the year would be seeing Green lock it down and look like the old dependable Green again, which along with Romano, Mayza, Swanson, Hicks would give us a very nice looking fivesome of high leverage type relievers to lean on, which would hopefully be enough to relegate all of Garcia, Richards, and Cabrera to low leverage.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#437230) #
Green used to routinely go 2 innings for the Yankees. He may not be fully built up, but if he is he should get the 8th.

It will be a tough decision whether to pick up either of his options, but hopefully the Jays get a longer look from a deep playoffs run.
AWeb - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#437231) #
This ump does not want to work the postseason. Sheesh.
lexomatic - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#437232) #
Just tuned in, this ump is terrible.
The dirt called strike to kiermaier. 1st pitch ball to Springer.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#437233) #
Again - why wouldn’t Schneider start the baserunner (Kiermaier) during that AB, including when the count was 3-2? I wonder if KK is a bit injured/hobbled. Otherwise Schneider’s approach seemed too conservative in the game situation, up 1-0 in the eighth inning with none out.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#437234) #
Umpires: HP: Lance Barrett 1B: John Bacon 2B: Roberto Ortiz 3B: Bill Miller* (crew chief)

Aaron Boone was ejected for the 7th time this season.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#437235) #
Lance pour les lanceurs?
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#437236) #
This is the third straight appearance in which Green has looked really good.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#437237) #
I was just typing that I would PH for Varsho when he made the out:(
92-93 - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#437238) #
Belt needs to come back for the playoffs so that Varsho can be used as a defensive replacement/PR.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#437239) #
When Hicks is able to throw quality strikes with multiple pitches, he is really good.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#437240) #
Hopefully the Jays can make Cole work and get into the Yankees bullpen for at least the last few innings tomorrow.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#437241) #
He tied the game on Saturday and hit a home run Sunday. Sure he’s not doing great at the plate but not a black hole lately either. And he is so much better defensively than anyone else in LF.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#437242) #
The triple on Saturday was an easy game ending out. I get the defensive value and you can always use that but the game was only 3-0 at the time. When it’s 2023 and you hit like Mark Belanger I think it should be close to a given that you’re PH for in late leverage ABs. Plus, he’s such an easy out for any late inning reliever with velocity.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#437243) #
with 6 head to heads against them left, I choose not to believe the Rays have clinched the top wild card until it happens.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#437244) #
It was a hard hit line drive to deep OF. Those type of hits have high babip. Yes that particular one should have been caught but the process was right. If you hit line drives they drop for hits more than any other type of swing result.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#437245) #
102 velocity line drive with a .670 XBA is never a bad hit. Sure he got a bit lucky but it was a very well hit ball. Also shows why having KK and Varsho out there is so important since they make those catches.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#437246) #
As important as these games are, if Guerrero is banged up, it might be good to give him a few consecutive games off so that he comes back stronger. Biggio and Horwitz can both cover 1B/DH pretty well, as we saw tonight.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#437247) #
Varsho's bat is so bad that he's a replacement level player in LF, and has been all season.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#437248) #
Is this the longest winning streak of the year??
Kasi - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#437249) #
Well his OPS is 20 higher at CF as well which I’m not sure means much. It is kinda funny that by defensive WAR Moreno and him are 1-2.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#437250) #
"Is this the longest winning streak of the year??"

2nd longest.

we had a 6 gamer back at the end of April. at that point we were 18-9 and on a 108 win pace. heady days.

6 other times we've had a 4gm win streak.

Magpie - Wednesday, September 20 2023 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#437251) #
Fascinating that Hicks gets so few strikeouts. He gets fewer swings and misses than Mayza and Ryu, which seems a little unexpected.

It appears that the velocity coming out of his hand impresses the radar guns more than it does MLB hitters, who apparently have no trouble seeing it and putting the bat on it. Happily, they don't seem to square it up often enough to cause a lot of trouble.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#437252) #
Toronto's day / night batting splits:

62 day games - 329 runs scored - 5.3 runs / game
90 night games - 363 runs scored - 4.0 runs / game
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 03:46 AM EDT (#437253) #
ESPN: " NEW YORK -- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a late scratch from the Toronto Blue Jays' lineup Wednesday night . . . Guerrero had an MRI during the game, and the team expects to know more Thursday. "
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#437254) #
A look at the AL Wild Card race ( With the assumption Tampa takes the first seed):

Jays: 1 more in New York, 3 at Tampa, day off, 3 at home vs. Yankees, 3 at home vs. Tampa

-analysis- games in Tampa are always tough, but 5-5 record might be enough with Texas & Seattle playing each other

Houston: day off, 3 games at home vs. KC, 3 games at Seattle, day off, 3 games at Arizona

-analysis- Astros seem to be in the driver's seat to win AL West, extra day off, 3 games against a weak team but last 6 won't be easy

Texas: day off, 3 games at home vs. Seattle, 3 games at LA Angels, 4 games at Seattle

-analysis- easier schedule than Seattle due to playing the Angels, 10 games in 10 days with last 6 on the road, playing Sunday then flying to play the Angels on Monday.

Seattle: day off, 3 games in Texas, 3 games at home vs. Houston, 4 games at home vs. Texas

-analysis- looks like the hardest schedule of the 4 wild card teams, 10 games in 10 days against tough opponents, game in Texas Sunday then fly home for game on Monday vs. Houston

Overall analysis: Assuming Houston hangs on to win the West, the best outcome for the Jays might be for either Texas or Seattle to go 5-2, or 6-1 in their head-to-head meetings. This might put the winner in the second wild card position against Tampa, the loser out of the playoffs, and the Jays in the last wild card position against Minnesota. Anyway, if baseball teaches us anything, it's that nothing is predictable.
85bluejay - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#437255) #
Best for the Jays is for one team to dominate the Texas-Seattle series which would not only likely give the Jays a WC spot but the desirable 3rd WC and a date with the Twins.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#437256) #
Jays seem.to have a tendency to let players play hurt and then things get worse... hoping Vladdy gets some time to rest up and get right.

Biggio and Horwitz can likely replicate the offence he was providing... plus an IL get Clement back up (or maybe Lukes).

Also with Cimber and Otto Lopez rehabbing in AAA now, it's going to get interesting with the 40-man... not sure you can extend rehab beyond the MiLB season which ends for Buffalo on Sunday.
Glevin - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#437257) #
"Also with Cimber and Otto Lopez rehabbing in AAA now, it's going to get interesting with the 40-man"

Lot of guys I don't mind losing on 40-man still. Jay Jackson has been useful but he's 35 with middling numbers and Jays have lots of reliever depth. Cimber is someone who I'd be OK losing as well. Similarly useful but replacable. Cabrera also seems pretty fungible but with better stuff and is a lefty. Eden is up right now but I don't see much long-term use for a punch-runner only player. I think Jansen is on 10-day IL and can be moved to 60 day as well.
hypobole - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#437258) #
Marc, there was a FG chat a few years back when Kiley McDaniel was still there. He was asked what surprised him most when he got a job with Atlanta. His response was finding out almost everyone was playing with some sort of injury late in the season.

Not unique to the Jays org.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#437259) #
Manoah has received some injections in recent weeks, per Sportsnet.
hypobole - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#437260) #
Cases in point from this morning's MLBTR Opener:

"Carlos Correa has already been placed on the injured list after playing the bulk of the season with plantar fasciitis in his left foot"

"Rays outfielder Luke Raley is also set to undergo an MRI today, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Raley told reporters (including Topkin) that he’s dealing with numbness in his left arm to the point that he had no power behind his most recent swing."
dalimon5 - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#437261) #
Best defensive OFs in baseball as your #8 and #9 hitters...fine by me. And they're excellent baserunners and hit left handed. Just need a manager who can put them in the line up properly.

dalimon5 - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#437262) #
I've been out of the loop recently. Is Danny Jansen out for the rest of season (playoffs) or is it still possible for a return from his finger fracture?
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#437263) #
it should be possible for him to return based on normal recovery times, but maybe not right at the start of playoffs and we don't know exactly how complicated the break was.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#437264) #
At times, Guerrero Jr. runs like a young pup and at other times, like, well, a senior dog.  It may be that his knee has been a problem throughout most of the year, with flares and periods where it settles.  Memo to self: never attribute to lack of effort what might be related to injury that you don't know about. 
JohnL - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#437266) #
On the non-Blue Jays front, I highly recommend the new Netflix doc, The Saint of Second Chances, about Mike Veeck. Mike worked for dad Bill, when he owned his last MLB team, the White Sox, and learned the hustles & promos Bill is famous for. Problem was his last one: Disco Demolition Night in 1979. Kept him out of baseball for almost 15 not very good years. Then he created the St Paul Saints in the Independent League (and later owned several others.)

Signed first-ever woman to play for a pro team, a legless player, to say nothing of Jack Morris & Darryl Strawberry (talking of second chances!) A pig brought balls to the ump, a nun gave massages in the stands...

Sadly, no mention of Vasectomy Night (on Fathers Day) when he briefly worked for Tampa Devil Rays. (cancelled at last minute.)

A lot more to it than just baseball. Directed by Morgan Neville (20 Feet From Stardom, Won't You Be My Neighbor) and Jeff Malmberg (Marwencol.)

Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgnxwkUbI_g
About Mike: https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2676347
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#437267) #
Thanks, JohnL.  Sounds like it's right in my wheelhouse- Marwencol, 20 feet from Stardom, Won't you be my neighbour?, Vasectomy Night at the ballpark. 
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#437268) #
After last night the team has 4 starters who’ve made 30 starts. That’s insane I’m this day and age.
Magpie - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#437269) #
After last night the team has 4 starters who’ve made 30 starts. That’s insane I’m this day and age.

The last time this was true of the Jays was in 1989 (Stieb, Key, Cerutti, Flanagan.) The 2018 and 2019 teams didn't have anyone.
Glevin - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#437270) #
"After last night the team has 4 starters who’ve made 30 starts. That’s insane I’m this day and age."

2016 team had 5 guys make 29 starts which is really incredible.
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#437271) #
Anyone have updated Umpiring-by-team stats?
Marc Hulet - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#437273) #
https://umpscorecards.com/teams/
Chuck - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#437275) #
After last night the team has 4 starters who’ve made 30 starts.

The Rays will end up with one. They have three guys who have logged even 100 innings.

bpoz - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#437276) #
Cole VS Berrios should be good. Either can have a good or bad game.
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#437277) #
I know complimenting the competition isn't en vogue these days, but what the Rays have been able to accomplish on the run prevention front, given the injuries to their starters, is nothing short of astonishing.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#437278) #
Babies born at the ballpark. It happened during the Giants - Padres game at Petco Park in San Diego on Sept. 24th, 2015.
hypobole - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#437279) #
Giants SS Crawford placed on the 10 day IL today, thus giving Paul DeJong the opportunity to be put on unconditional release waivers.
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#437280) #
The rays must cheat. There's really no other reasonable explanation for their sustained success.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#437281) #
I honestly hypothesized after the first six weeks that they hacked pitchcom... if you look at how many times they come back or score runs exactly when they need them... it happens a lot compared to their opponents... I've been meaning to compare their results to other teams and just haven't had the time... and they're smart enough not to do it all the time which would definitely draw attention.
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#437282) #
With the league's help of course.
soupman - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#437283) #
i had a similar suspicion around manoah's struggles, specifically. he was an outspoken critic of cole. the other one of note went from cy young to black balled.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#437284) #
Well, they've cracked the velcro anyways. I haven't seen a Ray pitcher throw away the pitchcom.in disgust.

Who knows? Maybe the Rays' innovation with the opener gave them insights about pitcher usage that helped that deal with injuries. A bit of a romantic notion, maybe.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#437285) #
Honestly, I'd just revert to signs during the start of the Rays series and see what happens...
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#437286) #
Cheating and cracking pitchcom doesn't really explain how they can lose three of their top 4 starters and only get half a season from the 4th and still be the best run prevention team in baseball:) I don't know what they are doing right but its something.
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#437287) #
I'd love to credit the rays with genius analytics but there's a ton of smart teams spending way more money on those analytics and yet Tampa's performance per $$ remains consistently FAR better than any other team in the league (or any league for that matter), year after year after year.

It really doesnt make any sort of sense.
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#437288) #
Maybe its not analytics? Maybe its player development? They seem to have a never ending string of what look to be fungible pitching prospects that they are able to turn into useful to good bullpen arms.
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#437289) #
But they've done it for like decades now on a shoestring. Their scouts and developers have been or could be bought up. It makes no sense.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#437290) #
L-C played a video game simulation (1994) where the Blue Jays defeated the Yankees by a score of 5 - 4.  Pat Borders hit a home run.  Don Mattingly was 3-for-5.
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#437291) #
I guess I think something is different currently with the Rays. At the beginning of the Rays current success cycle I think you could point to the drafting and talent evaluation acumen of the Andrew Friedman regime. Those Rays teams were successful on the back of high draft picks turning out well and the trade capital acquired when those good players got too expensive. As you say, the rich simply took that management pool away from the Rays and plunked it in LA (and elsewhere). The roster that the Rays are rolling out right now isn't filled with those kinds of players (to the extent they have them they are on leave or hurt). Where and how they have found their current roster is hard to fathom frankly.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#437292) #
Take Shawn Armstrong.  He's 32 years old and hasn't been much prior to this year. The Rays have used him in long relief and given him 5 starts as opener.  In those starts, he has thrown 11 scoreless innings with 1 walk and 13 Ks.  Opponents are hitting .220/.238/.268 despite a .321 BABIP.  He's been almost as good in relief (30 IP, 37.2 innings).  Whoever follows him in the 3rd or 4th innings either has a lead (twice) or is tied (three times).  That's a really nice position for your bulk pitcher to be in.

What happened?  I don't know.  But I do know that the usage- multiple innings and medium leverage- took maximum advantage of his improvement.   
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#437293) #
And yet no other org, even stocked with ex Rays management, seems to be able to come anywhere close to replicating that kind of thomg, while the rays do it endlessly.
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#437294) #
I don't know uo - the Dodgers seem pretty damn close to doing that. Look at the seemingly endless stream of talent that comes through the Dodgers system. But I agree in the sense that the Rays "secret sauce" isn't clear to me. Maybe its Kevin Cash?
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#437295) #
Personally, I think it's a culture of innovation.  Like I said, somewhat romantic.  So sue me!
uglyone - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#437296) #
But the dodgers don't even really outperform the rays at all, even with their MASSIVE financial advantage. The Rays performance per $ crushes the dodgers, year after year.

I don't know that any type of Culture explanation is really satisfactory.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#437297) #
So are they going to get Cole added the game sufficiently early to allow this team to score some runs against the Yankee bullpen or what?
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#437298) #
The Rays get way more bang for their buck than anyone for sure. But there is a pretty big gap between the Rays and Dodgers. Over the past 5 years, the Dodgers have an insane .641 winning percentage and the Rays have a really really good .572 winning percentage. The cost per WAR isn't linear and you can see where the war chest goes in the case of the Dodgers.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#437299) #
It looks like they've done very well in the trade market particularly recently.  Yandy Diaz, Paredes, Arozarena, Harold Ramirez, Luke Raley, Glasnow, and Pete Fairbanks arrived in favourable trades. 
greenfrog - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#437300) #
How about free agency? They signed Zach Eflin in the off-season for 3/$40m. He’s been a 4.4 fWAR pitcher this year. That is excellent value.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#437301) #
Berrios made one real mistake, and that may well be the ballgame.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#437302) #
That's true, greenfrog.  They are only occasionally in the free agent market though, because of financial constraints. 
Chuck - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#437303) #
The cost per WAR isn't linear

This has always been my position and is the reason for my objection to the FG model valuating WAR at $X. The first 1 WAR is basically free. Even the 2nd WAR should not cost a whole lot, though more than the first. Every incremental WAR thereafter is increasingly more valuable than the prior, and should be increasingly more expensive.

Chuck - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#437304) #
I am talking about an individual player’s value, not WAR at the team level.
Chuck - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#437305) #
Adding to the Rays’ mystique, they have lost, probably for good, one of the best players in the game. And yet they continue to compete.
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#437306) #
All true Chuck. But I’d add it’s non linear in a team context. To move a team from say a 93 win team to a 100 win team generally requires the addition or retention of scarce premium talent which raises the issues you point out. I have no objection to the FG model of $/WAR as a rough measure for average players on an average roster. I just believe it breaks down the farther away you move from that.
Chuck - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#437307) #
Agreed, Nigel. Non-linear in a team context as well. The multitude of playoff teams will probably have the effect of no one trying to pay for a 100 wins any more, unless you’re a hedge fund manager. A reflection of the non-linearity at the player level should mean eventual 50MM contracts, with the middle class, say 2 to 3 WAR, being squeezed. At least in theory.
Nigel - Thursday, September 21 2023 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#437308) #
Chuck - agreed and that outcome is absolutely the case in salary capped sports (NBA and NHL). MLBs lack of a cap will probably distort that to some extent. 2WAR veterans making $15m per year will probably remain a thing in MLB long after it should. Those deals are financial structure crushers. It’s why the Jays need to run not walk from Merrifield’s option.
John Northey - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#437309) #
Guys like Merrifield and Espinal should be cheap to acquire or develop. Right now we have ML minimum equivalents on the roster in Davis Scneider and Ernie Clement. You pay for WAR beyond 2, but the first 2 are worth about $1 million. Outside of the pen where values get nutty. You only pay for up to 5 WAR as well since counting on more is foolish from any player due to injuries and natural variation.
Michael - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#437310) #
I think with the rays it is a combination of many things. That is they are a smart team with a culture of innovation, they work hard on player development and know they need to trade/move guys earlier than most due to constrained budget, plus they've likely been lucky. You can argue about if it is better to be lucky or good, but clearly it is better to be both.
scottt - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#437311) #
The weird thing with the Rays is so many hitters having career years.
Whatever they are doing it's working better than the Houston trash can.

On the road they are not better than the Jays and they are pretty similar against > .500 teams.
Where they are really good is at home with a 52-26 record.
Is it just because the Trop is a sh-thole?

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 07:16 AM EDT (#437312) #
Tropicana Field . . . " Let's tear this place apart! "
greenfrog - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#437314) #
Varsho is currently about a 2 WAR player. Food for thought.
scottt - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#437315) #
Over 3 by bWAR, under 2 by fWAR.
A gold glove for sure if he was playing in center.

Parker - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#437317) #
"The Extra 2%" has a lot of insight into Tampa's success.
Mike Green - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#437319) #
Coming back to the Rays and the non-linear nature of WAR.  The Rays cannot afford to pay market price for players expected to be 3+ WAR players.  So, what do they do?  Develop and trade for them.  But what they have done with pitching this year is kind of special. They have 20 pitching fWAR despite all the injuries.  That's 3rd in MLB.  4.8 of them come from a very thoughtful free-agent acquisition, Eflin (more on that later).  And the remainder is as follows: 2.7 from Glasnow (trade), 1.8 from McLanahan (draft), and 9 pitchers between 0.9 and 1.4 (plus Jeffrey Springs at .7).  Of these 10 pitchers, 8 have thrown 65 innings or less, 1 threw 80 innings and 1 threw 95. In essence, they have succeeded mostly by preferring a large number of pitchers who have not thrown 100 innings in a season.  Quality over quantity. 

So, for instance, the Blue Jays signed Chris Bassitt for $21 million a year for three years.  He had a pretty decent year- 185 innings, 3.78 ERA, 4.26 xERA, 2.1 fWAR, 1.9 bWAR.  The Rays can't afford to do that.  Instead, they have a couple of pitchers who produce a little more for a whole lot less (Taj Bradley and Kevin Kelly or Zack Littell and Shawn Armstrong...).

What about Zach Eflin?  He's signed for 3 years for $40 million.  The Rays can do that.  The previous 3 years, he had thrown 59 (pandemic), 105 and 75 innings with ERAs of 3.97, 4.17 and 4.04.  Which is why the Rays were able to pick him up for what they did.  However, his xERAs were 3.35, 3.84 and 3.27.  The Phils offered him poor defensive and bullpen support, and the Rays knew they could do better in those departments.  In essence, they were confident in the quality of his pitching but likely not in the quantity.  They had a bunch of pitchers who might have been able to get them 180 innings and Eflin is the one who did.  But, even if he didn't, they were reasonably confident that he would pitch as well as he did for Philadelphia. 
scottt - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#437321) #
And the Rays just called up a top infield prospect out of AA for the Jays series.
He's now the youngest player in the bigs. 
Nigel - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#437322) #
That’s bang on Mike. In a Jays context, Rays management would likely say that they could get similar production from a Francis/Pearson tandem start every five days and get Bassitt like (or better) production and save $20m. I think they’d have a good shot at being right. Save your bullets for premium talent.
uglyone - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#437324) #
"what about Eflin?"

well, exactly.

Pre-2023

* Eflin Career: 127gms, 5.2ip/gm, 19.7k%, 5.7bb%, 106era-, 100fip-, 101xfip-, 1.8 avgwar/32gm
* Eflin Last 2yrs: 38gms, 4.8ip/gm, 21.7k%, 4.1bb%, 99era-, 86fip-, 89xfip-, 2.5 avgwar/32gm

* Eflin 2023 (29): 30gms, 5.8ip/gm 26.6k%, 3.5bb%, 84era-, 72fip-, 73xfip-, 4.9 avgwar/32gm


Career Bests: IP, IP/gm, k%, bb%, era-, fip-, xfip-, fipwar, ra9war

and most of those are career bests by a lot.

what about Eflin, indeed!
soupman - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#437325) #
It’s strange that the jays had two five game skids this year given how good the pitching has consistently been and the upgraded defence.
hypobole - Friday, September 22 2023 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#437327) #
Here's my theory on Rays pitchers. There are willing to adjust pitchers mechanics in such a way as to both improve effectiveness and increase injury risk. Because they have so many inexpensive pitchers, the trade off is worth it to the team. They may end up with an inordinate amount of pitchers on the IL, but it's not a crippling amount of dead money. And they can cycle through cheap pickups. The ones that improve their effectiveness they keep, the rest they dump.
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