Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Mitch White Outpitches Ricky Tiedemann

Buffalo got back in the win column behind Mitch White's best start of the season, seven strong innings. It was Ricky Tiedemann day for New Hampshire. NH won but Ricky T didn't last long enough to get the win. Vancouver were the only team to hit home runs, they won easily. Dunedin were the only losers on Saturday.

Lehigh Valley 2 Buffalo 3

New Hampshire 6 Bowie 4

Vancouver 9 Tri-City 1

Jupiter 4 Dunedin 1

Three Stars

Third Star - Mitch White

Second Star - Nathan Lukes

First Star - Peyton Williams

Boxes

NOTES

Buffalo were in a tied game heading to the bottom of the ninth. Cam Eden led off the inning with a single and promptly stole second, his 50th steal of the season. Rafael Lantigua singled him home for the walk off win. Eden also doubled. Nathan Lukes went 4-5 and is now hitting .365. Among players with at least 100 at-bats Lukes is leading the league in hitting.

Mitch White started for Buffalo and went seven innings, just allowing two hits and striking out seven. It was his longest and best start of the season.

The Fisher Cats scored six runs with seven hits in their win. Bowie also had seven hits but NH did a better job of stopping them from scoring. But not fully, Bowie scored two runs off Ricky Tiedemann but both were unearned thanks to two errors. Tiedemann threw 72 pitches over 4.2 innings. Bowie had three hits off him but two of them were soft infield hits. Ricky struck out six.

NH have some call ups from Dunedin as the Jays leave the Vancouver roster intact for the playoffs. One of them, Davis Feldman, followed Tiedemann, pitched 2.1 shutout innings, and got the win. Another, Bryce Arnold, doubled in the first run. Trevor Schwecke and Riley Tirotta drove in two runs each. Schwecke had two hits and is 9-15 over his last four games. Schwecke has hit better, and struck out less, in the second half. Tirotta is on a September hot streak, hitting .444 with a 1.330 OPS.

Vancouver romped over Tri-City. Peyton Williams hit his seventh home run and was a triple short of the cycle. Cade Doughty played for the first time in a week and hit his 18th home run. He added a double. Glenn Santiago was 3-4 with two RBI.

Ryan Jennings made his first appearance since June 21st. He threw two shutout innings.

Dunedin had four hits, all singles, in their loss. Trent Palmer started and went three innings. Kendry Rojas followed and surrendered four runs to take the loss.

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:31 AM EDT.

Mitch White Outpitches Ricky Tiedemann | 29 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#436320) #

We may not be appreciating the insanity of what Ricky is doing so far as a prospect. He may be the best pitching prospect we've ever had.

I wouldn't mind seeing him on the big club come playoffs.

99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#436321) #

Is 72 pitches the season high for him?

It seems like they have been very deliberate in their gradual pitch increases.

soupman - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#436322) #

Didn�t they miss the deadline for him to be playoff eligible? It seemed like having him as another relief option would a la Price in 2008 for the Rays would have been a move.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#436323) #

Ah shoot yeah he's not on tbe 40 man. Ah well.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#436324) #

In August, Tiedemann allowed 12 hits and 7 walks in 9.2 innings in double A. His K% in double A is 40%- very good but not as good as the 16.2/9 IP would suggest. Steamer projects him to have an ERA of 3.89 in the major leagues.

He is one of those pitchers like Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax who may take some time to find their control. You want to make sure he's pitching for you when he does.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#436327) #

40% is flat out amazing tho. Flat out. No need to look at k/9. And at 20yrs old in AA it's even more incredible especially as his pitch count rises.

Tiedemann had one start where he was babipped to death, and due to his recovery pitch count limits didnt have the chance to pitch through it, but other than that he's been filthy dominant. His AA babip is over .400 on the year because of it but that's almost certainly a fluke.

AA (Age 19-20): 14gms, 3.0ip/gm, 39.1k%, 12.1bb%, .367babip, .199avg, 3.95era, 1.65fip, 2.45xfip

I'm not sure we've ever had a pitching prospect with AA stats this good, let alone one that was only 19-20.

greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#436328) #

Tiedemann has yet to show that he has the durability to be an MLB starting pitcher. Maybe he�ll get there, or maybe (like many other touted SP prospects) he�ll end up in the bullpen, potentially as an Andrew Miller (circa 2014-2017) type arm.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#436329) #

Yes yes all SP prospects are extreme injury risks.

greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#436330) #

Is Lukes a free agent after this season? It would be nice to keep him in the Jays system in 2024.

ISLAND BOY - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#436331) #

Is Nathan Lukes an eternal AAAA guy, or could he be more if given a chance at regular at bats at the major league level ? He's knocked the cover off the ball the last 2 years at Buffalo but has only earned a handful of appearances with the Jays.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#436332) #

Defensive metrics like Lukes even in CF and his hitting lines look solid through and through. Hard to believe he wouldn't be at least a good 4th OF in the bigs.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#436334) #

Ricky has a line drive rate allowed of 25%. That won't help the BABIP.

I've seen him pitch on MILB. He is sometimes overpowering and sometimes not. It's not all bad luck.

hypobole - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#436335) #

As long as Lukes is on the 40 man, he'll remain a Blue Jay. And this was only his 1st option year.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#436336) #

MILB leaders, min 20ip:

K%

1. Tiedemann (20, A/AA): 13gms, 38.0ip, 45.3k%
2. McMillan (25, A/A+/AA): 37gms, 51.1ip, 45.3k%
3. Tavares (24, A+): 11gms, 20.1ip, 45.2k%
4. Abbott (24, AA/AAA): 10gms, 54.0ip, 42.7k%
5. Cooke (23, A+/AA/AAA): 36gms, 42.1ip, 42.5k%

So the only ones close to him are some overage relievers and one top-100 older SP prospect (Abbott) who is now pitching great in MLB. And one of those older relief prospects (McMillan) was killing it in his mlb callup before getting injured.

FIP

1. Tiedemann (20, A/AA): 13gms, 38.0ip, 1.10fip
2. McMillan (25, A/A+/AA): 37gms, 51.1ip, 1.86fip
3. Daniel (26, A): 6gms, 25.1ip, .328babip, 1.93fip
4. Thomas (27, AA/AAA): 20gms, 29.2ip, 2.03fip
5. Tebrake (23, A+/AA): 18gms, 31.0ip, 2.07fip

xFIP

1. Tiedemann (20, A/AA): 13gms, 38.0ip, 1.78xfip
2. Sommers (22, A): 31gms, 42.0ip, 2.13xfip
3. Tavares (24, A+): 11gms, 20.1ip, 2.30xfip
4. Cooke (23, A+/AA/AAA): 36gms, 42.1ip, 2.30xfip
5. Jobe (20, A/A+): 14gms, 53.0ip, 2.36xfip

pretty cool stuff there. especially when you realize that Ricky's .410babip in AA this year is a complete anomaly, with him never posting higher than a .276babip at any stop before this.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#436397) #

Statcast would help. If you're giving up a lot of line drives, the xERA will be a better indicator than the xFIP. The hit bunching is, from what I have seen no accident. Tiedemann just loses it sometimes mid-outing as the pitch count increases.

And, by the way, I wouldn't aggregate A ball and AA statistics. Big difference in the levels, as I think you know.

Don't get me wrong. Tiedemann is an excellent prospect. But, as far as I am concerned, he hasn't taken a step forward this year. If he can throw 5 innings per start and dominate in double A and triple A, that will be a sign that he is ready.

Marc Hulet - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#436401) #

Intrigued to see what Duran, Aponte, and Arias can do in full-season ball next year.

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#436402) #

well i think his AA stats are even better than his A stats, so there's no issue separating them if you want.

Kelekin - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#436405) #

Will Robertson with the late season surge, with a 1.202 OPS in September after a 1.021 OPS in August. He's not really a prospect at this point, but by mid-season, he looked like a strong cut candidate. Looks like he's in a position to finally make AAA next year.

Good to see Jennings back, he was on a roll before the injury. I could see him as a potential AFL candidate, or getting challenged with AA next year due to his age, despite the missed time.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#436406) #

Tiedemann's A ball stats are worlds better than his double A- much higher K rate, much, much lower W rate, - xFIP-. Have a closer look, UO.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tariq-tiedemann/sa3018096/stats?position=P

uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#436409) #

well I wouldn't compare to two levels down - his performance in AA this year is much better than his performances in both A+ and AA last year.

but if we do look at that comp:

* A (19): 44.5k%, 11.8bb%, .217babip, 1.80era, 2.09fip, 2.29xfip
* AA (20): 40.6k%, 12.8bb%, .410babip, 4.50era, 1.47fip, 2.25xfip

pretty similar performance, but doing it 2 levels up one year later makes it much more impressive, imo.

we could actually compare both levels:

* A (19): 44.5k%, 11.8bb%, .217babip, 1.80era, 2.09fip, 2.29xfip
* A (20): 75.0k%, 5.0bb%, .250babip, 0.00era, -0.70fip, -0.49xfip

* A+ (19): 36.0k%, 8.0bb%, .276babip, 2.39era, 2.92fip, 3.27xfip
* A+ (20): ---

* AA (19): 34.1k%, 9.8bb%, .227babip, 2.45era, 2.23fip, 3.08xfip
* AA (20): 40.6k%, 12.8bb%, .410babip, 4.50era, 1.47fip, 2.25xfip

John Northey - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#436411) #

Just checked a couple of hotshot prospects from the past.

Roy Halladay - super hyped as I recall, but NEVER had a K an inning outside of a rehab start in A+ at 35 (4 K in 3 IP). His crazy control didn't show until after his 10.64 ERA season at age 24 but was lights out from there.
Dave Stieb - at 20 was a hitter first, but had 4 starts 1 BB 8 SO over 26 IP. That was it for hitting. By the end of his age 21 season he was in the majors to stay until his arm went kaboom at 33. Didn't K 6 per 9 IP until age 25 in the majors.
Nate Pearson - most recent phenom who everyone thought was going to take the world by storm. At 20 had a 0.90 ERA over 20 IP in A/Rk with 2.3 BB/9 vs 11.7 K/9. At 21 only had 1 game (sigh). At 22 had a 2.30 ERA over A+-AA-AAA 2.4 BB/9 10.5 K/9. COVID led to him pitching for the Jays in 2020 but he got kicked around a bit (18 IP 13 BB 16 K) then 10+ K/9 every year since outside of his ML time this year (9.2). But outside of his age 22 season in the minors he hasn't cracked 100 IP (101 2/3 that year). Pre 2020 he was a top 10 prospect in MLB (BA/MLB.com). Sigh, so much potential so little to come from it (negative WAR so far).

Those 3 came to mind right away for me for mega pitching prospects. Jimmy Key, David Wells, and others weren't hyped much in comparison.

Hodgie - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#436412) #

Tiedemann surrendered 7 LDs in his first two starts back in AA after his injury (Aug 11 & 17). In his other 8 starts at AA he's surrendered 7. His LD% in those other 8 games is 15%. I haven't seen all of his starts, but what I have seen he has been victimized by an inordinate number of infield hits and poor infield defense in general. He does need to get his walks under control and stay healthy, but he has been otherwise dominant.

Hodgie - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#436413) #

I should have clarified those are only his 2023 AA stats.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#436414) #

Thanks, Hodgie. It has been 4 outings totalling 12 innings since August 17. He has 8 walks in those 12 innings.

I can't think of a pitcher who walked 6 per 9 IP in double A who had immediate success in the major leagues.

lexomatic - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#436420) #

Anyone remember what happened to the 1st Alex Sanchez? Did he blow his arm out in 1988 pitching 206 innings as a 22 year old? Only hyped pitching prospect I remember from way back. Stopped striking people out after that year, then lost the plate

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/17536/

Other prehistoric prospects (you have my permission to use this for a series title)
Matt Stark must have been a terrible catcher. He seemed like an early Alejandro Kirk. Career minors 286/389/431 in the 80s!!!! with 437BB - 274K only 2 cups of coffee. A bit of power.
Ugh What a missed opportunity https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/18391/ I don't really understand why Borders was bumped over him Stark was 2 years younger, a better hitter, and an actual catcher, instead of being converted in 86? The playing time for the minors seems so weird too. 86 Stark was starter as 21 yr old hit 17 HR with good plate discipline and slash stats. Stark seems to have been promoted to ride the bench in 87 while Borders took over in AA, Then in 88 Stark goes back to AA (where he already has 163 gp over 3 seasons and 65-64 BB-K with slash like 290/385/450). Borders gets 35 games in AAA then up to the Jays (Stark never gets to AAA with the Jays).. Stark seems to miss 89 with injury then is back in AA with the White Sox where he gets an 876 OPS and gets a callup. Then makes AAA for the first time the next season as a 1B before retiring from minors at 27. He makes a comeback for a few years in indy ball in his 30s.

I definitely would have preferred Stark to Borders from minors stats. White Sox had Fisk & Karkovice. He might have made a good midway point for them then too.

John Northey - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#436426) #

Totally forgot him lexomatic. He was an interesting one. I remember tons of hype around him and how he never really did anything after his brief 11 2/3 innings in the majors. He led the league in AA in K's at 22, top 10 in AAA at 23, over 10K/9 his first 2 pro seasons (21/22) but after that brief call up he was top 10 in AAA only in R/ER/BB and losses. He never got a second call-up.

Matt Stark drove me nuts - the guy could flat out hit. Yet the Jays wouldn't give him much of a shot. At 22 he pounded the crap out of the ball in spring training with a 353 average, 3 HR in 17 AB's but only got to be here from April 8 to 15th, a hit in his first game but no more in his 12 AB's total. 5 catchers used that year, Ernie Whitt being #1 (789 OPS), Charlie Moore #2 (661 OPS), Jeff DeWillis #3 (465 OPS and done, he was 22 and never played pro again after 1987, very odd). Stark really deserved more of a chance than he got imo but that is life.

John Northey - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#436427) #

Double checked, and there is no record of major injuries to Alex Sanchez, just stopped throwing strikes pretty much. Sadly not unusual for pitchers. An interesting tidbit - he struck out 328 batters at UCLA. This was the school record for over 20 years, before Trevor Bauer annihilated it with 460. Also inducted into the Antioch Sports Hall of Fame in 2010 (where he went to high school).

85bluejay - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#436429) #

I remember Pat Gillick suggesting in an interview that Alex Sanchez liked the night life a too much. Also Jose Silva a pitching prospect out of Mexico had 2 very impressive seasons in the lower minors before stumbling - I think injuries did not help his cause.

85bluejay - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#436430) #

That should read "Alex Sanchez liked the night life a bit too much."

Mitch White Outpitches Ricky Tiedemann | 29 comments | Create New Account

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