Flexen, Blach and Gomber.  Won't be bringing my legal work to that firm.

The Jays should crush Flexen, which likely means they'll be no-hit.

Hoping to see Horwitz, Clement, and Schneider in the lineup... But that might be too much for the elder Schneider to handle...

I'm hoping not to see Horwitz in the lineup because it means Belt is hurt, and I'm indifferent between Clement and Espinal at SS.

Flexen and Blach both pitched well in their last outings vs. BAL.

They did say Belt had a bad back and he certainly did not look like himself the last few times he was in...

The Jays realistically need to go at least 7-2 in their next 3 series against Colorado, Oakland and KC to have any chance in making the postseason. Of course, I wouldn't object to 8-1 but 9-0 seems out of the question with this bunch.

Or they can just match Texas over the next 9 and then take 3/4, leaving them 0.5gb with the tiebreaker. One game at a time.

The season ends Oct 1st. There are a lot more games than 9.

Two LHPs going for the Rocks.  Should be fun for Davis. 

The sad part of the Jays middling August results is that it came with the hottest hitter in baseball.

Schneider has been really lucky, but also really good. A few months back Gerry posted about Schneider, Horwitz and Orelvis. He pointed out Horwitz solid LD rate while Orelvis and Schneider had high FB rates, but sub-20% LD's. By the time of his promotion Schneider had pulled it up over 22%.

503 players have 50 PA's this year. Schneider's 34.4% LD% is the highest. His 18.8% GB% is the lowest. That is a great combo.

Now I await the inevitable.

The inevitable? Yeah, he won't hit better than Babe Ruth for the rest of his career.  ZiPS projects Schneider to hit .240/.325/.437.  That's the 50% outcome.  I wonder what the 75% outcome would be- I'm guessing that it would be .260/.350/.500 or so, and the best hitter on the club.  Which would be something. 

The major league leaders in xwOBA (50 PAs or more): Judge, Acuna Jr., Seager, Ohtani, Schneider, Yordan Alvarez, Betts, Freeman.  The major league leaders in W% (50 PA or more): Soto, Judge, Schwarber, Noda, Cowser, Carpenter, Frelick, Trammell, Schneider, Belt.  He has been walking, hitting line drives, and hitting fly balls with some power to the pull side, while striking out only a modest amount more than league average.  This is a combination that is sustainable. 

Yeah, there is zero chance Schneiders real talent level is peak PED Bonds. That is where his OPS is right now, his OPS+ above Bonds best. It's been fun, and I hope he can keep it up for the season before turning into a decent but not inner circle HOF hitter. Lets just enjoy the ride.

Read that he knows the high fastball is his nemesis and he is not swinging at it or trying to just foul it off right now until the pitcher makes a mistake. I figure that is the advantage for a guy who was almost out of baseball a couple of years ago - he knows his weaknesses and has found ways to adapt around them before reaching, unlike someone like Vlad who dominated the minors and had to learn in the majors.

Actually, the inevitable I knew was coming was posters pointing out it won't last/he's not that good.

Heh. So true. I'm sure in Angels groups people still say 'Ohtani can't keep this up, it is impossible' and have been saying it since he was signed.

Rockies are 1-9 their last 10 and on a 3 game losing streak. They are 10 1/2 games ahead of the A's in the fight for last overall - IE: if they lost 10 straight and the A's won 10 straight the A's would still be behind the Rockies. The Rockies are 8 1/2 behind the 2nd worst NL team (the Cardinals - which still seems weird to me).

Jays lineup isn't up yet. I'm guessing we'll get Espinal at SS, Schneider at 3B, Biggio at 2B, Horwitz at DH or 1B with Vlad at the other position. I'd rather have Clement play over Espinal but I'd be surprised if Schneider does that with Horwitz and Schneider near locks to be in the lineup today.

It was a concession stand that caught fire on the concourse.  Damage is estimated at $600,000. 

After tonight the Jays are facing lefties in 4 of the next 5 games, so it's surprising that Biggio is not in the lineup.

" The season ends Oct 1st. There a lot more games than 9."

Yep, there are 18, bpoz, but the Jays are playing the softest part of the schedule for September and they need to put a winning streak together. They've been playing around .500 baseball since the trade deadline and have fallen out of a wildcard spot while Houston, Tampa, Baltimore and especially Seattle have kept winning. Luckily Texas has hit a skid and may be catchable, but, holy heck , when does urgency set in? When it's the last week and they have to win 6 out of 7 against tougher opponents?

Schneider rarely sits regulars after an off day.

win or lose, i hope the outcome isn't influenced by the ump.

This is going to be one of those games....

Great poise by Ryu to get the inning-ending DP after that apparently atrocious call (I’m listening to the game on the radio) by Angel Hernandez.

https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/15mycze/how_does_angel_hernandez_still_have_a_job/

this thread appears to just be a bunch of anti-unionism. i don't wanna start a political discussion because on a completely unrelated note: it's the (long!) weekend!

If you actually read the thread, you would see that only some of the comments are about unions, and that of those comments, many are generally pro-union (while acknowledging that some sort of failure has occurred in the case of Angel Hernandez).

this is only like the 4th game he's been home plate ump all year. so, it would seem that the union is disciplining him. i read the thread and found nothing of interest or value. maybe my joke went over your head. sorry.

Wow. Schneider is good.

Man if we get first half of 22 Kirk that would be a huge boost

I think Schneider’s double would have been a homer in the ‘Dome

Statcast says it was out everywhere but Arizona, Detroit, Houston, and of course there in Colorado.

The Jays have a fabulous chance to gain ground at the start of September. The Rangers, Astros, M’s, and Rays have all lost.

Cool Joe! I didn’t know that could be checked like that.

@greenfrog- and the Royals crushed the Red Sox, AND, right now, the Orioles are losing. A good day for the Jays across the board, so far.

Great to see Clement making good on his opportunity... He's out of options next year and could be a solid bench piece - and much cheaper than both Espinal and Biggio.

My goodness this play by play guy is terrible.

Seems ridiculous that Romano is warming up.

But necessary!

You have to get the win, yes, but also you can't just let Green pitch until his arm falls off. He was at 25 pitches in his season debut!

Hat tip to 92-93 that flagged the diminished velocity on Green as a potential issue. Arguably Clement and Springer could have made outs to help him, but I don’t think he was creating chases we are used to seeing.

Well, a win is a win. Just 2 real negatives - Janson going down for the season probably given the early reports of a broken finger, and Green flopping hard on his first game back. Only Garcia & Green threw 15+ pitches (12 for Richards is next) so only those 2 should not be available tomorrow. 6 relievers used, meaning 3 are fresh for tomorrow (Francis, Jackson, Mayza). Lets hope Kikuchi is efficient (poor odds, but one can hope) and gets 7 innings in while the offense scores 10+ again. It could happen.

Gotta say it is nice when everyone does what we want them to do - Mariners lose to the Mets, Red Sox lose to the Royals, Rangers lose to the Twins, Rays lose to the Guardians, Astros lose to the Yankees (still feels wrong to cheer the Yankees), Orioles lose to the Diamondbacks. Heck, even the Angels lost to move them behind the Guardians. Hard to imagine a better set of results for us Jay fans. So now the Jays are 1 1/2 behind the Rangers, 2 1/2 behind Houston & Seattle, but miles behind Tampa (8) and Baltimore (9 1/2). 5 up on Boston, 8 on the Yankees, 9 on Cleveland, 10 on the Angels.

FYI: the NL wild card is really crazy - Phillies 4 1/2 up, Cubs 2, Arizona & SF tied for the last slot, Reds 1 back, Miami 2 back. 4 more are within 10 but 7+ out thus need a super-hot streak and extreme luck to make it (SD, Mets, Pittsburgh, Washington).

So safe to say Tyler Heineman is coming up tomorrow to be the backup catcher (probably starting on Sunday). Wonder when Swanson, Bo, and Chapman will be ready and who goes down for each? McCoy clearly will go down first, but the 2nd hitter is a bit of a flux - Clement is making a strong case for himself to stick but would the Jays demote Espinal (he has options)? I'm guessing poor Jackson goes down again when Swanson is ready. I miss the old September rules where you could have up to 15 call ups vs the 2 now. A 3rd catcher, a few relievers, and a pure runner were traditional call ups for contenders. Ah well. Hopefully they expand it a bit in the future to 4 players vs the 2 now.

Fracture at the base of the finger.

Fracture at the base of the finger.

They used to teach catchers - on Day One of Catcher's School - to tuck the bare hand out of harm's way, behind your leg, precisely so this type of thing doesn't happen. Jansen's bare hand was right there beneath his glove, saying "HIT ME."

I was thinking of that, too, when I saw the replay, Magpie. I remember Buck Martinez talking about it one time and it made sense to me.

"The Catcher's School"

The School of Not-So-Hard Knocks?

Jansen is a fine, fine player, but you don't want to count on him for 500 PAs in a season. Maybe he will learn from bitter experience. Personally, I would bet on him to do so.

Yogi Berra went to school?

The School of Not-So-Hard Knocks?

There were no classes. But someone like Yogi Berra himself would share these tips on the page of a magazine, often accompanied by helpful photos.

Remember kids, don't throw away your mask until you find the pop fly. Then throw your mask in the other direction so you don't trip over it.

Basic, obvious stuff that every catcher needs to know. Like, tuck your bare hand behind your leg while you're waiting for the pitch.

Count me in for those shocked where Jansen was holding his hand... huge blow but lessened a bit perhaps with Kirk hitting better and Clement/Schneider stepping up. Luckily Heineman is a solid No. 3 (now No. 2) catcher.

I turned the game off right before the bottom of the ninth but, based on gameday, Green's velo wasn't terrible but command is often the last thing to return... and there is no harm keeping him on low leverage for now.

The page of a magazine. Dating yourself there, Magpie.

I remember those articles. Fun.

Most relievers had success with 96+mph fastballs.
I think Green topped at 95.
The location wasn't terrible, but they were sitting fastballs.
Colorado is tough place for a comeback.

The page of a magazine. Dating yourself there, Magpie.

I was at the bank yesterday, which was itself rather unusual - who still goes to the bank? - but I was running an errand for my father-in-law who is 80 years old and not as mobile as he once was. He pays his VISA bill by writing a cheque and taking it to the teller along with the statement. Very quaint. So I present the cheque and the statement to the teller, who looks at me strangely. "A cheque? Does he always pay by cheque?" Indeed he does, I explain. He's old school. And the young fellow tells me that he's never written a cheque in his life.

The behind the leg move is typically with the bases empty. Most MLB Cs try to hide their hand behind their glove or tuck it near their hip with runners on so they can have a quick transfer. Some definitely leave it more exposed than others, though.

Does anyone know the recovery time for Jansen’s injury? Any chance he could make it back for October baseball?

IMO the Jays were smart yesterday with their minimal complaining about the bizarre strike zone of Angel Hernandez. Everyone knows his zone has no relation to reality so complaining about it won't help anyone. The map from it...

Buck specifically mentioned that you can't hide your hand with runners on, exactly because you need to have a quick transfer. I get being disappointed at the outcome, but it's not like he's committing basic mistakes here.

Wonder if a hand protector might be possible - something like the protection they wear when batting. Clearly something needs to be done as Jansen is getting hit more often than a hockey enforcer does.

I once fractured my finger inside the joint, which is what I understand Jansen’s injury to be, and it took 2 weeks to heal the fracture. About a week in a splint, and then another week of steadily increasing mobility and reduced swelling/pain. I was 16.

I feel confident Danny will be back

Buck specifically mentioned that you can't hide your hand with runners on, exactly because you need to have a quick transfer.

I wasn't sure if this was true or not - but it turns out that he's right. It seems that most catchers - though not all - keep their throwing hand exposed with runners on base. There's a nice Youtube video called "MLB Amazing Catchers Plays 2023" that shows a bunch of different styles and techniques -- most keep the hand tight against the body but some try to hold it down and away... and there are a few that seem to still hide their hands, even with runners on base.

https://youtu.be/Z9rh0DOuAXk?si=EyZbi0Ve9c8kDRYc

Jansen’s injury hurts badly. Not only because Kirk is having a poor offensive season but because Jansen was one of the few power threats in the lineup. Hopefully, Kirk can end the season on a tear.

First visit to Coors Field for the staff ace.

It seems that most catchers - though not all - keep their throwing hand exposed with runners on base.

Berra, of course, played mostly in the 1950s when catchers actually needed two hands just to catch the damn ball. But he didn't really have a running game to worry about - opposition teams generally stole something like 35 bases a year against the Yankees (and were thrown out trying to steal just bas often.)

Johnny Bench might have been the first modern catcher, with the hinged glove, and Bench definitely tucked his arm behind his leg. Of course his arm was so sensational that he could take his time and throw the man out anyway....

Damn this team. Vlad would be better on the bench instead of hitting into DP and hacking at bad pitches, and they continue to make idiotic base running decisions.

Loving the start to this game!

D-J Stewart blasts a 422 ft. 3-run homer and the Mets tie Seattle 3 - 3 in the 5th.

Kikuchi does not look good today.  More fastballs please. 

It definitely feels like a Bowden Francis game but hopefully the Jays offence keeps churning.

Bad baserunning and a bad throw by Varsho... Don't see that often.

And the Mets fall behind 7 - 4. Elsewhere, the out-of-town scoreboard is mostly positive.

Bench Vladdy now!

And then there's Mr. DP Guerrero...

It's true about the rare bad baserunning and throw from Varsho.  The DPs from Vladdy though are a little too common for my liking.

Guerrero is still a DP amateur compared to Jim Rice.

The other day I suggested giving Horwitz a start against Colorado, Oakland or KC. Seems like Vladdy could use a day off to recharge. If John Schneider is skittish about doing this, he could make the move once Bo and Chapman are back in the lineup.

Lordy, there surely can’t be many more annoying play-by-play announcers than this guy Matt on Sportsnet. His self-conscious, hiccuppy, stop-and-start delivery is extremely irritating. (And what he has to say is seldom of much interest when he finally does get it out.) I’ve simply muted him now, but it would be nice to have some articulate commentary that is more concerned with providing useful information than with ‘performing’.

Matt Devlin is the Raptors’ cartoonishly over the top PBP guy. He used to channel that same energy in Jays’ games, which of course was inappropriate, but now it seems he’s on Valium.

Pretty sure Horwitz could be worse than Vladdy. Not on either side of the ball.

I’m a Raptors fan, so I don’t mind the change of pace

Vladdy wRC+ by month:

April 147
May 94
June 117
July 109
August 98

In the four months since April, he's been around a league-average hitter (maybe slightly above-average). That is a long time. He probably shouldn't be hitting third or fourth in the lineup, at least not until he turns things around. But I doubt this will change in 2023.

The Jays are playing with very little energy tonight...

Poor Yimi.

Lots of tight ballgames on the out-of-town scoreboard:

Yankees 5, Houston 4 (9th inning)

Seattle 7, Mets 7 (8th inning)

Minnesota 6, Texas 6 (9th inning)

My goodness. For the least clutch team in MLB, this is just a normal night. All 8 Rockie runs with 2 outs. Jeepers this is frustrating.

If Vlad missed the rest of the season and was replaced by Horowitz, I actually think the Jays would be better off. It's amazing how much of a buzz kill he has become to the offense.

It's not even so much that the 8 runs are all with two out, it's that the first two came in an inning which had an error, requiring essentially a 4th out. Ditto the next two runs in another inning. Then the last three came in an inning which started with two out and none on, followed by three straight walks. Just infuriating.

When the Blue Jays are behind this site gets sour and then Vlad takes a few wacks.

If Belt hits for Espinal, it’ll be Biggio at SS and Guerrero at 3B, right?

Houston and Texas lose. Seattle wins.

Forgot about McCoy. He’ll come into the Belt spot and play SS, with Biggio going to 3B. Less of a beer league lineup than I expected.

Redemption time for Vladdy?

This is exactly how I’d expect a Rockies closer to pitch.

And the Rockies don’t have a LH reliever???

Tough to come off the bench in that situation.

Well, I've been Lucy'ed for the last time by this team. They've pulled the football on me for the last time. 
Going into 2019 mode - watch the games dispassionately with no  expectations of winning.  Obviously this team is much better, but caring about winning is just becoming counterproductive.   

Yeah this team is just hard to watch. They are a good team that is just frustrating, boring, or a combination of both far too often. Tonight was a perfect example. Vlad has been a negative WAR player since May, and if someone you expected to be a star is now one of the worst regulars on the team, it's going to be hard to come back from that. Two more DP's tonight when he could have blown the game open.

I'm going to follow that lead and just go into each game without caring about the outcome.

Painful loss but at least they had a chance. Really hoped Horwitz would be more patient but after taking that first pitch it was like he decided I'm not watching anymore go by. Sigh. Doubt McCoy would've done any better - a shame the manager didn't have the guts to put Belt at 1B and Vlad at 3B with Biggio at SS. Would've been interesting at the very least.

Schneider's decision to go for the triple in the ninth worked out, but was ill-advised. The break-even point was probably 98% because of the game situation- if you are sliding, you've made the wrong choice.

And as for Vladdy, he was hardly busting a gut on the DPs. At least once this year, he grounded into a DP where there was a bobble on the turn but they still got him because he was jogging and turned it up too late. He has not learned yet.

It would be nice if there was an outbreak of smarts and dedication, but it might be late for that.

This Sunday quiz I thought was good.

Only two pitchers in MLB history have allowed 500 or more home runs. Who are they?

My guesses allowed 439 and 482.

This Colorado team is worse than I thought. What an embarrassing loss. Vlady needs a day off. To bad it wasn't last night. Pretty sad to say that they probably win that game if he isn't playing.

Eephus, I've taken your advice for the entire season.

My guesses would be Nolan Ryan & Bert blyleven. But I dunno if that's right

Schneider's decision to go for the triple in the ninth worked out, but was ill-advised.

As was his dash home on the wild pitch. If he weren't hitting like Ted Williams, or had made an out in one of those two situations, there might be some grumbling.

Blyleven wasnt bad but only 430. My #3 guess had 480 but Ryan had fewer Hr than I remembered. #4 guess was better but didn't make 400

My best guesses were 4, 9, and 10 (418).
I think this will be tough. Pitcher was known for giving up HR, but <clue elided>

Chuck, please consider my comment a grumble. Schneider is generally pretty heady- poised at the plate and in the field- and he does hustle, so there is hope that he will emerge as a well-rounded ballplayer in not too long.

I guessed (and then looked up) Niekro, Blyleven, Colon, Carleton. Close, but no cigar

L-C guessed Boomer Wells, but only 407.

Yeah the 439 I guessed was Colon, 480 Niekro. There has been one correct answer so far.

Tim Wakefield another guess, but only 418.

Tried another. Frank Tanana. 448 HR allowed

Hmmm... 500 HR given up - has to be a guy who was very good thus able to last that long, but prone to the long ball. Many of my guesses have been given already. I'm guessing it'd be someone who pitched in the 90's/early 00's when homers were plentiful. Hmm... doubt it was one of the greats - but maybe one of Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, or Greg Maddux - all 3 threw a LOT of innings during that time frame, the only way you get 300+ wins (or 350+ for Clemens & Maddux).

Nope, Clemens & Maddux were 363 and 353 respectively and Johnson 411. Funny how close Clemens & Maddux are in many stats given they were drastically different pitchers. 354 and 355 wins, 3.12 and 3.16 ERA's 4916 2/3 IP vs 5008 1/3. The K's and BB's are massively different, but otherwise they are similar.

I'll guess Fergie Jenkins.

Don Sutton and/or Drysdale?

I guessed Jack Morris. 389.

Then Bartolo Colon. 439.

My Sutton guess was close (472), but Drysdale was waaaay off.

The missing pitcher had one season where he led the league in both home runs allowed and strikeouts. I suspect that this combination of two true outcomes is very unusual, especially compared to the walk and strikeout combination.

Fergie Jenkins came close, leading the league in home runs allowed 7 times and strikeouts once (but the year did not coincide).

Tom Glavine, a modest 356.

Found another. Walter Johnson led the league in home runs allowed and strikeouts in 1913.

Orel Hershiser?

My guesses Tanana, Morris and Colon obviously wrong.

Robin Roberts, surely.

Confession. While I really did know it was Roberts (he whose record Moyer broke) I did happen to check this very category about a week ago. It was actually the single season record I was interested in (wondering if Lance Lynn's got a chance this year. Not much, really.)

The die isn't officially cast yet, but when two cornerstone players of your organization (Manoah and Guerrero) both can't even be bothered to keep themselves in better shape and crap the bed (relative to their potential) so badly during the season then it's probably not going to be a bucket of fun.

The Jays "breaking up the Barrio" offseason - the guys who were not moved - Guerrero, Espinal, Kirk and Manoah all have had dreadful seasons - correlation?

Anyone know the Montreal Expos inaugural season record that has a chance to be tied or broken this year?

Many have pointed out Vlad's struggles and general overrated status a long time ago. He's had full run and the longest leash. There's no plan B from this FO or manager and no recourse for his sloppy hustle. There's no reason to be surprised he hasn't turned his season around or why the Jays are likely to miss the playoffs with him as their key player in the line up in a prolonged slump (or just his normal performance) depending on which numbers you look at.

MLB Trade Rumors has an article up on Vlad's terrible season and his underlying numbers.

Who's he throwing sunflower seeds on today? Will he ever be benched?

Ironically, that record could be tied/broken by their expansion cousins.

Sounds like Vlad is chock full of character flaws!

Personally i preferred fat elite vladdy.

How about CC Sabathia?

Before Alonso just launched a 2-run HR to give NYM a 4-0 lead over SEA, the Mets radio was talking about how hard Kirby was being hit and that he didn't seem to have his best stuff. His last 3 starts have not been good.

The 1969 Expos only won 52 games, none in extras. They went 0-12. Their expansion cousins this year are at 0-11. Can the Padres do it?

Belt scratched late from today's lineup. Hard to expect much from a team missing its 4 best hitters.

His only elite season was '21. He was down about 25-30 pounds from '19.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/26/sports/baseball/vladimir-guerrero-jr-weight-loss.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

I also consider defense and baserunning as part of the equation, and it's best to avert your eyes seeing the metrics. The eye test also tells me he's not as quick getting to sharply hit balls laterally.

Baserunning, it seems there hasn't been many recent bad reads or mental lapses but there's still been a few glaring ones this season. He certainly isn't much of a stolen base threat this season, which given the advantages the new rules bring seems like a missed opportunity.

There is plenty of incentive for him to get back to his '21 fitness level.


Ah yes, time for my Monte Cristo leftovers.

1969 Mets!

Sure don’t intend to criticize Vladdy personally. He’s just another flawed human like all the rest of us. Well… some of us more than others. You might have noticed that I’ve never been high on Vladdy. That’s not because of his abilities. From the first times I saw him as a minor league prospect he appeared to lack focus. He was a loud and voracious talker out on the field during warm ups. He also looks unfocused between pitches at the plate. Last year Bichette had a poor early second half. He worked hard on his defence and his offence. Bichette talks and thinks baseball while in the dugout. If Vladdy can do what Bichette did, he could turn his career around.

Fat vladdy and homerun jackets oh how i miss thee

I would settle for a modest accessory, like a RISP bracelet.

god i hate this season.

It's official.  Schneider needs to work on his tag positioning. 

Bichette and Jansen were being shown in the dugout. Once a tin was brought out with Jansen dipping into it, the camera hastily panned away. Apparently there is a nicotine product called Zyn that some players opt for given the tobacco ban. I don’t know that this was what I saw. It could have been M&Ms for all I know.

it's hilarious that we're being driven by our AAA/AAAA callups down the stretch.

attaboy spencer

A home run baldric / sash.

For this psychedelic weekend in Colorado, I present Molly Tuttle. 

If Varsho hadn't slipped, he would have probably got the baserunner.  Terrific defence. 

I would guess that’s it for Gausman, due to the delay.

Who’s up next?

Probably Richards for a couple of innings and then take it from there. Romano, Hicks, and Green didn't pitch yesterday, and Francis is fresh. Mayza and Jackson should be good to go too.

Schneider and Horwitz earned their promotions. As less-heralded prospects, they had to fight their way onto the major-league roster by posting numbers that couldn’t be ignored. And now it’s paying off for the Jays, big-time.

The pitching has been awful this series. I hope it’s Coors and not fatigue

Biggio took the two-out walk that kick started the three-run 5th inning. Not a fan of removing him for Espinal in the 6th inning of a tie with an already short bench.

Does anyone have the ability to look into how often the Jays immediately (next AB) cough up a lead? Seems often. Maybe something for a bigger post?

Epic series battle here between two evenly matched great teams.

Green looked sharp today. Nice to see him bounce back

The Rockies' closer is no better today.

Bring up Lukes now too. The AAA guys are our best hitters.

With the new scheduling, it's cool to be able to see all the teams in the league. But this is absolutely enough Colorado for my tastes.

1. 1B Horwitz
2. 2B Clement
3. LF Schneider
4. RF Lukes
5. SS Bichette
6. DH Belt
7. C Jansen
8. CF Kiermaier
9. 3B Chapman

X. PH Guerrero
X. UT Merrifield
X. OF Varsho
X. C Kirk

Seriously. I'm glad the Jays don't go back to this place till 2025.

Right on, ugly.

Would Schnieder, Clement, and Horowitz have hit this well at the major league level two months ago? No way to know, but I feel like the Jays should have learned something from the Nathan Lukes ninth inning double in Detroit awhile back. These guys look like the trade deadline adds the front office weren't able to land/weren't available. Where the hell was this in early August?

With the way the Jays AAA guys have hit, what are the odds of Matt Hague, Buffalo's hitting coach, being a major league coach next season?

Post-game, Horwitz said that “hard work” is the common denominator behind the AAA guys’ success. These are not players who will be rolling into spring training 2024 in a Ferrari thinking they already have it made.

"These are not players who will be rolling into spring training 2024 in a Ferrari thinking they already have it made.
"

Of course not. They probably buy American.

I’ve said this before but I think the jays have been impatient with their minor leaguers. Like if I have to hear Kevin Barker spout one more time about how vets know what to do I’ll have to kick something. But apparently the Jays brass echoes this. They bring up someone he struggles a bit and then they cut bait for the next thing or a shiney trade/FA. And then people like Ramirez with Tampa or Drury with LA do better than their replacements. Look maybe we don’t have the sexiest minor league system but it’s pretty clear between Bo, Biggio, Schneider, Orelvis, Clement, Barger, Horwitz, the guys in A/AA that we do have some skill in developing bats.

Like give them some chance and cut down the amount of 10-20 million FAs and try to focus one getting one really good one. Jays problem is not having a good floor for their players is they lack a ceiling since Bo looks like our only star right now.

Part of the issue is keeping guys like Biggio and Espinal on the roster despite being replacement level players (or worse) for a while now. Ideally replacement level players should be able to ride the AAAA shuttle until you find the hot ones. Then, once you find the hot ones to man the mlb bench then suddenly a slumping starter gives them all the opportunity to make a bigger play for playing time.

I mean if we do happen to make the playoffs you gotta think Horwitz and Clement might have already beat those two onto the playoffs roster. And if those two and schneider keep hitting then suddenly varsho is in a very tight spot.

1. SS Bichette 506pa, 129wrc+
2. DH Belt 380pa, 135wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 584pa, 115wrc+
4. 3B Chapman 520pa, 114wrc+
5. RF Springer 573pa, 105wrc+
6. 2B Merrifield 517pa, 105wrc+
7. LF Schneider 72pa, 263wrc+
8. C Jansen 301pa, 115wrc+
9. CF Kiermaier 335pa, 109wrc+

B. PH Horwitz 16pa, 212wrc+
B. OF Varsho 508pa, 83wrc+
B. IF Clement 36pa, 201wrc+
B. C Kirk 340pa, 95wrc+

X. PH Biggio 240pa, 91wrc+
X. OF Lukes 30pa, 72wrc+
X. IF Espinal 217pa, 72wrc+
X. C Heineman 32pa, 79wrc+

The weird thing is at the trade deadline atkins said they had organizational guys they liked better than the bats available for trade and still they took forever to use them.

Hmm... got me thinking about WAR for the Jays...
bWAR: 3+: Chapman (4.0), Bo (3.9), Kiermaier (3.3), Varsho (3.2); 2's: Merrifield, Springer; 1's: Belt, Schneider, Kirk, Jansen; 0.5+: Vlad, Clement; 0.1 to 0.4: Espinal, Heineman; 0's: Horwitz, McCoy; sub 0s: Luplow, Lukes, Biggio, DeJong (worst at -0.8)
fWAR: 3+: Bo (3.3), Chapman (3.2); 2's: Merrifield, Kiermaier, Belt, Jansen; 1's: Varsho, Springer, Schneider, Kirk; 0.5+: Clement; 0-0.4: Vlad, Heineman, Biggio, Lukes; 0.0: Luplow, Horwitz; sub 0s: McCoy, Espinal, DeJong (worst at -0.9).

Basically both methods have Epsinal & Biggio basically as replacement level players. Varsho is far, far better than that thanks to his defense - if his bat ever gets going he'll be an all-star/MVP candidate. Vlad has collapsed in value thanks to his defense going downhill plus his bat being good but not great. Jansen/Kirk are a solid combo behind the plate, Schneider has had a historic start to his career (pre-today where he had a double and a walk in 5 PA (bringing down all his stats, now finally he is a sub 400 hitter).

Right now it'd be nuts to keep Espinal and Biggio ahead of either Schneider or Clement. Horwitz might make a case to stick too but I can't see it unless the Jays feel he can handle LF now and then. I see Bo & Chapman returning, McCoy goes down (easy), and Espinal (2 options left, and lets be real he isn't suddenly going to become that guy from the first half last year) or Biggio (3 options left but a favorite of the manager). Sadly I expect Horwitz to go down instead to keep 'flexibility' on the roster and to try to keep Vlad happy (Espinal) and the manger (Biggio). I suspect the 'fully healthy' lineup will become Schneider at 2B/DH (DH vs LHP), Merrifield LF/2B (2B vs LHP, LF to cover for KK and Varsho's days off). Clement, Espinal, Biggio, Horwitz (whichever are here) will be sitting the vast majority of the time, coming in for injuries, to run for Kirk, and that is about it.

It seems like the Jay's management has been reluctant for years to give young position players a chance, outside of the catcher's position. Of course, I guess there weren't that many candidates until now but I'd certainly like to see Chapman walk this offseason and have the position filled internally.

I see Chapman's skills eroding and I don't think he'd be worth the big money, multi-year contract he'll probably be looking for. Don't forget, it's a weak free agent class and he'll be in high demand.

It seems like the Jay's management has been reluctant for years to give young position players a chance, outside of the catcher's position. Of course, I guess there weren't that many candidates until now but I'd certainly like to see Chapman walk this offseason and have the position filled internally.

I see Chapman's skills eroding and I don't think he'd be worth the big money, multi-year contract he'll probably be looking for. Don't forget, it's a weak free agent class and he'll be in high demand.

Astros lose. Both them and the Rangers 1.5gms ahead of us. They play each other starting tomorrow.

Which means if we can just sweep the lowly As this upcoming series, we're 100% guaranteed to be in a playoffs spot by the end of the series.

And we're definitely sweeping the lowly A's.....right?

Thing is right after that series the Astros and rangers get to play those same teams so it’s not like it’s a long term schedule advantage. Yankees are still a good team as this weekend shows so the last 12 games of the year plus that four gamer against the rangers is super important.

Happy Labour Day, folks.

Paul DeJong has followed up his 3-hit Giants debut with an 0-for-25 run over his next 8 games. San Francisco sits in a 4-way tie for the last NL Wild Card with Arizona, Miami, and Cincinatti.

I wonder what the overlap is between Jays fan ready to give up on Vlad and Jays fans eager for the team to pursue Cody Bellinger.

Fans just want a clean up hitter better than replacement level and who can outperform promotes AAA players.

I would move Vladdy down in line up and hope he takes the challenge they way Bo did last year. There's no point arguing if he is good or bad...he's been bad and he has the ability to be a best in league type of player on the offensive side...he needs to be untapped and that hadn't happened in an MLB ballpark in Toronto.

Don't know if it's funny or sad that no one even bothered to mention Vlad standing at the plate admiring his 5th inning single. Has it become so commonplace that it's just another case of Vladdy being Vladdy?

Pretty much had the same thoughts on this hypobole.

Sorry for so many typos, I have big thumbs, struggle with touch screen and so not use auto correct because I think it weakens the mind. Also this site is not ideal on mobile. I do know how to spell though my posts often are riddled with mobile page typos.

I mean, he did get on base 4 times and is finally showing power. Let’s hope the approach and power output continue

No drawback to moving him down in the line up and inserting Belt and Bo in top 5 instead.

I mean no player in baseball is expected to outperform what the AAA callups Schneider (263wrc+), Horwitz (212), Clement (201) have done so far.

Also, Vlad (115wrc+) has been the 2nd best fulltime starting hitter this year behind only Bo (129). Belt (135) is also ahead of him but only in part time playing time. And of course the AAA callups are ahead too.

Ground balls are usually bad. League average for ground balls is 36 wRC+. Tampa is #1 at 65, Jays tied for 2nd at 50. Yankees dead last at 12 wRC+.

Clement is at 267 wRC+, Horwitz at 187. Might be some regression coming there.

The worst Jays hitting ground balls are Kirk 19 wRC+, Jansen 17 wRC+, and Espinal with a pathetic 184/184/197 line, "good" for a -2 wRC+.

Jays have one huge outlier though. 190 batters have hit 100 ground balls. Only 4 of those are at 100 wRC+. Harold Ramirez 106, Santander 115, Brandon Marsh 117, and the league leader with a 385/385/468 line good for a 138 wRC+. That's Matt Chapman.

Then there's Davis Schneider. 2 of his 7 grounders have snuck though for singles - 57 wRC+.

He's going to have overall regression, just maybe (probably?) not as much as some think. He's one of 473 players with 70+ PA's this year. Only 2 have a sub-20% GB rate. Adam Duvall and Schneider. Highly doubtful that will last. However, only 9 others are under 30% GB's, including Mookie and Judge.

This is the 6th team Schneider has had 70+ PA's since the 2020 shutdown. He has been under 30% GB rate on all 6 teams. If he can have a 20%+ LD rate (which he's had his last 5 stops) and a sub 30% GB rate, he's going to surprise a lot of the naysayers.

Hypobole, what are your conclusions re: Chapman after looking at those numbers?

Is he doing even worse than we thought due to an extremely lucky streak (I think we can all remember a few examples of him hitting a weak chopper to 3B or SS and beating it)?

Or is this an under appreciated part of his game ? Just curious

Chapman has been super lucky this year on grounders.

Here are Matt Chapman's wRC+ starting in 2017: 56, 79, 46, 30, 50, 67, 138.
Here's the League Average wRC+ starting 2017: 28, 30, 26, 26, 31, 35, 36.

So he's been better than LA every season, sometimes quite a bit better, but nothing remotely comparable to this year.