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There are lessons to take away from the experience of watching the 2023 Blue Jays. These are perhaps things we have always known, but we can still use the reminder.


For example. There's a Ted Williams story I've always liked. In retirement, the Splinter often showed up at spring training to help out with the young Boston hitters. Occasionally people from other organizations would have Ted look at one of their players, a bit of expert consultation from one of the greatest hitters who ever walked the planet. So there's old Ted watching young Von Hayes take his cuts, and Hayes askes Ted what the best approach would be for a back door slider that just nips the corner, low and away. And Ted's eyes got really wide, and he says "Why, you just let that pitch go by, son. Don't you know how hard all this is?"

Don't you know how hard all this is. If there's one thing the 2023 Blue Jays have reminded me of, over and over, there it is. Hitting is hard. I mean, it's really, really, really hard. It's sometimes utterly incomprehensible to me that hitting ever even happens. Just making contact at this level is slightly miraculous. Any normal human being would run shrieking in terror away from the box the first time a 95 mph fastball missed the plate on the inner half.

This may seem an untimely observation the day after a game with a 10-7 score, but we've spent the last five months watching a team that suppresses the other team's offense at an elite level and has a great deal of trouble scoring runs themselves. The lesson should have been pounded into us. Hitting is hard. Never forget it.

But there's a larger lesson we can reacquaint ourselves with as well.

Every spring, as the Maple Leafs prepare for the playoffs, on my various social media accounts (because I am thoroughly modern and with-it) I like to share this picture.


Because I know what I'm in for. That's what we're all in for, and no one knows more about losing than basball fans, because no sport's fans have anything like the same level of experience. It's baked into the conditions of the sport. As I'm fond of observing, the best baseball teams - the very best, the champions of the sport - regularly lose more games in a season than Tom Brady lost in his long, long two-decade career with New England. Losing, over and over, is what we've all signed up for. Baseball is pain.

Easy for you to say, Magpie. You can get all philosophical about this type of suffering. You're old, you remember the glory years, the back-to-back championships....

Do you know what it was like? The Glory Years? The Golden Age of Gillick, those eleven straight winning seasons? What it was really like?

It was mostly a misery. Oh, it started out wonderfully, when we and all the world was young and full of promise. Why, 1983 was positively delightful. For the first time the local team was actually good. Sure, they finished fourth, sure the bullpen blew up in spectacular fashion in late August - but we were not discouraged. The novelty of having a good team was more than enough. Maybe next year.

Next year came, and another team simply ran away with everything. The Blue Jays made a valiant effort to keep up with the mighty 1984 Tigers, but nothing was getting in the way of that team. Nothing you can do about that. Maybe next year.

And next year came, and so many pieces fell neatly into place. The Jays moved into first place at the end of April, and saw off every challenge, highlighted by taking three of four crucial games from Billy Martin's gang of stars right there in Yankee Stadium. Our first experience of post-season baseball - it was a blast, even if it all came to a sad end, with our exhausted ace left out there too long and a wind-blown fly ball catching the top of the right field wall... Maybe next year.

So next year came, and along with it a new manager, and the Jays were everyone's trendy pick to win something impressive. Naturally everything - mostly on the pitcher's mound - immediately went to hell. The team didn't clear .500 for good until late June, and just as they were getting into position to maybe mount a challenge, the Red Sox ran off an 11 game winning streak and it didn't much matter what the Blue Jays did. Maybe next year.

So next year came, and the 1987 team - once more expected to contend and win - played well all year long. Other teams in the division got hot - the Brewers had the early season lead, the Yankees actually spent more time in first place than anyone that year, but the Jays were right there with the leaders and held the division lead for a while in June, and again in August. And then, in September, they got really hot, winning 19 of 24 games and heading into the final week with a 3.5 game lead atop the division. You've probably heard the stories. Well, maybe next year.

So next year came, and people were starting to wonder although the team obviously had enough talent to win everything. Alas, the traumatic ending of the 1987 season seemed to have temporarily unhinged everyone's mind. The year began with the phony Ducey-Capusano duel for a starting job in the outfield, and the follies that ensued. The team never even sniffed anything resembling contention - they took a losing record into the season's final month, and only a closing hot streak (22-7) gave the season an appearance of decency. It wasn't. Maybe next year.

So next year came, and by now the confident expectations of the fans and the baseball community was beginning to waver. Things got so bad right out of the gate that the manager had to be fired after a grisly weekend in Minnesota was capped off with a 13-1 shellacking. The team was sunk so far under water that the season seemed over before it had even begun. And yet - this was a plucky bunch, and they had the great good fortune to catch the AL East in a year when there didn't happen to be another really good team around. The 1989 team made that long, slow climb up the mountain and actually found themselves back in the post-season. Where, as everyone expected, they were quickly blown away by a powerhouse Oakland team. But that was a satisfying season. Maybe next year would be even better.

So next year came, and it wasn't. Oh, they were in contention all year long - they spent time in first place in April, May, June, July - but they never did take hold of the race, they never moved much more than 7 or 8 games above .500. By late August they were two games behind the Red Sox, who came to town for a four game series. The Jays won the opener to cut the lead to a single game - they then dropped three in a row, by scores of 2-0, 1-0, and 1-0 again. They had fallen to 6.5 games back by the time September came around. A desperate last season charge got them back in front with two weeks left. So they lost two of three to Cleveland, two of three to Milwaukee, and (fatally) two of three to Boston. They went into the final day needing a miracle to salvage a first place tie and didn't get it. Maybe next year.

So next year came, and changes had been made. George Bell was gone, they'd made some big off-season trades, and things looked better. They really did. The team moved into first place in late May and stayed there all year. They were challenged for the lead several times, and occasionally had to share it with another team, but they held fast. And once more, they were back in the post-season. And once more they were blown away, this time by the Minnesota Twins. Next year? Again?

Which was when they finally, finally, won it all.

What did winning feel like? It felt, more than anything, like relief. And like justice - we had paid our bloody dues, we deserved this. But mostly, relief. From pain. Because baseball is pain.

So why do we put ourselves through it? Why do we care?

Well, it's good to care about things. Roger Angell said so, and that's good enough for me.

“It is foolish and childish, on the face of it, to affiliate ourselves with anything so insignificant and patently contrived and commercially exploitative as a professional sports team... What is left out of this calculation, it seems to me, is the business of caring — caring deeply and passionately, really caring — which is a capacity or an emotion that has almost gone out of our lives.”

Matchups

Mon 28 Aug - Gray (7-10, 3.85) vs Gausman (9-8, 3.23)
Tue 29 Aug - Gore (6-10, 4.38) vs Berrios (9-9, 3.55)
Wed 30 Aug - Corin (9-11, 4.70) vs Bassitt (12-7, 4.00)
Washington at Toronto, August 28-30 | 295 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#435267) #
One other thing with that - I lived it too (my first game was in 1978 seeing the Jays get slaughtered 11-3 by the Yankees). I've seen many things, Fred McGriff's first ML home run, John Olerud's first game at home, Tony Fernandez going onto the level of excellence the same day he got his last hit/last ML game, etc. But 1993 was really ho hum after 1992's winning the WS - if it wasn't for Joe Carter's home run that year would not be anywhere near as well remembered as it is. 1985 seeing George Bell catch the final out to clinch the division title over the Yankees was MASSIVE. 1992 hearing the Jays just traded for David Cone in August told me the team finally might win it all. The bunt to Mike Timlin that he threw to Joe Carter to win it in 1992 was the icing on the cake. 1994 was the price we paid for it, or so we thought. Then the years and years of mediocre teams with promise here and there from 1994-2014 before another mid-season trade for a star pitcher happened and 2 years of near glory (just shy of the WS) before a few more years of ugh. 2019 started a 1982-1993 streak through we hope. 2019 saw a young core show up (Biggio-Bo-Vlad) just like 1982 did (under 25's Barfield, Moseby, Stieb, Griffin with soon to be flops Jim Gott, Geno Petralli). 1983 Bell arrived (he was here in '81 but as a rule 5 wasted year guy) with Stan Clarke (future LH ace we thought, but wasn't to be). 1984 saw Fernandez burst onto the scene pushing Griffin to the edge of being dumped at long last, Gruber got his first shot, Key in the pen would be that elusive LH ace but not until the next year. '85 saw Fielder and Lee show up along with other kids who wouldn't do much but were expected to (Steve Davis won 20 in the minors, Jeff Hearron was the catcher of the future but only got 33 PA lifetime, etc.)

Success isn't simple. If the Jays follow the path they had in 1982 we are years away from a title and we'll see a lot of turnover by then. John Schneider might be the modern Jimy Williams - a guy who just can't win here but will have luck later elsewhere. Based on the old timing we can expect a title around 2028/29 and a massive trade or two around 2025/26.
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#435270) #
Just have to keep reminding myself that I'm angry this year only because the team is underachieving, not because we don't have a very, very good team.

So i'm definitely not gonna give up on this season at any point now, because they're good enough and close enough that they should still make the playoffs and can beat any team they come up against in a series.

but man is it frustrating.

on another note, it seems like Varsho is back to being a solid hitter, and Springer continues to bounce back from that epic hitless streak.....while some vets have really fallen off a cliff lately - Chapman, Merrifield, Kiermaier in particular amongst the regulars.

Of them, Chapman's is most likely injury related and he's not exactly old, so whenever he's healthy he obviously plays.

Merrifield and Kiermaier are a bit of different issue tho - both are creeping into legit "old" territory, and the success both saw for much of the year was a bit more in the "surprise" category, so them falling off lately is not a real shocker. So I guess my question is - which one of Whit or KK do you trust more going forward? which one of them is the sacrificial lamb to get Schneider regular PA's?

Last 30 days (asterisk = likely injury related)

* 1. SS Bichette*: 47pa, 99wrc+
* 2. DH Belt: 89pa, 184wrc+
* 3. 1B Guerrero: 112pa, 107wrc+
* 4. RF Springer: 104pa, 115wrc+
* 5. LF Varsho: 93pa, 132wrc+
* 6. C Jansen: 64pa, 94wrc+
* 7. 2B Merrifield: 119pa, 63wrc+
* 8. 3B Chapman*: 95pa, 55wrc+
* 9. CH Kiermaier*: 40pa, 42wrc+

* X. 2B/LF Schneider: 44pa, 286wrc+

I probably lean towards KK just becoming the 4th OF, with Varsho in CF, and Whit/Schneider in LF/2B.....but then again while I love Whit i'm not sure i can have 100% confidence in him bouncing back, or even that much more confidence over KK potentially bouncing back.
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#435271) #
I really hope they reset the batting order to what it was at the beginning of the season, perhaps swapping Belt for Varsho in the cleanup. Springer looks like he's on a heater or about to go on one, so it would be wise to move him back to where he'll be getting more at bats.
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#435272) #
another layer of frustration for me - Schneider finally does what i've been asking him to do - bump the top of the order all up a slot and move Whit down.....and Bo promptly injures himself and scuttles what imo was the best lineup.

wouldn't be shocked to see George back in the leadoff spot tonight now with Bo out.
Mike Green - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#435273) #
Merrifield has vastly overperformed his xwOBA most of the season and is coming back to an almost reasonable differential. His current xwOBA of .285 is tied with Espinal's for the lowest on the club.

Kiermaier's wOBA is now somewhat higher than his .306 xwOBA, but within reasonable distance given his speed.

Marc Hulet - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#435274) #
Ernie Clement is up but no word on corresponding move (ie. Bo or Chappy)
Magpie - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#435275) #
It's Chapman to the IL.
92-93 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#435277) #
Merrifield's slash stats are supported by hitting a bunch of wall-scraping, flyball HRs. He's hitting .230/.250/.330 in 104PA in August. He should sit again tonight with Biggio at 3B and Schneider at 2B.
hypobole - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#435278) #
Magpie alert! Something you brought up discussing FIP.

From today's FG chat "Then we add an additional transformation, we count infield pop ups the same as strikeouts.
You don't see this in our FIP, but it accrues to WAR because an infield pop out is just an out"

uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#435280) #
clement's chance to take Espinal's job. i bet you he does it. or at least earns it. not sure whether they let him take it in the end tho.
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#435281) #

Tonight's lineup:

* 1. RF Springer
* 2. DH Belt
* 3. 1B Guerrero
* 4. 3B Schneider
* 5. 2B Merrifield
* 6. LF Varsho
* 7. C Jansen
* 8. SS Clement
* 9. CF Kiermaier

Schneider gets a shot at 3B. That would be a very nice development it he can handle it (both for keeping espinal out of the lineup in the shortterm and in implications for chapman's impending free agency).

Springer in the leadoff spot - him hitting like he used to back in that spot would be a fantastic development. If he can't, then I go with Bo at leadoff when he comes back and flip George back to 4th or 5th.

Clement getting the start at SS flat out over Espinal. nice to see. I thought for sure Espinal would be in at 3B or SS tonight with Clement taking the other slot. Maybe they have tired of Espinal after all.
92-93 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#435282) #
Might as well give Schneider the first look at 3B until it's proven he can't handle it. Merrifield at 2B and batting 5th with the Jays facing lefties Tue/Wed is a head scratcher, though Gore does have reverse splits.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#435283) #
Ugly,

You've been spot on with many of your posts lately.
krose - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#435284) #
Thank you, thank you, thank you Mags. Well spoken!
Eephus - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#435287) #
As someone who now plays more baseball than actually watching the game (a weird development to happen in your 30s but not complaining), I can definitely comment on how different seasons can have a certain feel to them. It really does seem like the plucky young underdog team that everybody writes off going into a season (this year's Reds) or the team that bounces back from a dreadful start to make something of themselves (the 89 Blue Jays) are the easiest as a fan to root for. It's a win win: even if they fall short, they proved something important that can give future hope, and provided some thrills along the way.

On the flip-side, you can have a super talented team that is built and expected to win (reference not required, we've been living it the past five months). I've played on both types of teams (just exclude me from the "super talented" part heh) and the reality of being so good but the results not matching... I mean even pro ballplayers aren't robots, this kind of thing has to affect them to some degree, even marginally. And baseball is a game of margins, indeed.

Winning games does tend to cure most of all that ails, of course.   
Eephus - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#435288) #
Anyhow, Schneider at 3B is an interesting look. Most of his minor league experience at the position was as a teenager, but I like the idea regardless. I do wonder if his arm is good enough though.
85bluejay - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#435290) #
I like all this movement in the lineup - it's like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!
dalimon5 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#435291) #
"I like all this movement in the lineup - it's like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!"

Classic
GabrielSyme - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#435293) #
I was going to note the big gap in wxOBA between KK and Whit, but I see Mike beat me to it. The other point in favour of KK is that he's going to provide more defensive value. The numbers see KK as a poor baserunner this year *and* he's grounded into lots of double plays after being consistently above-average for both his entire career. I'd expect better things from KK on the basepaths this next month.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#435294) #
The Titanic did not sink because it was switched with The Olympic.
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#435296) #
What do you mean by "lately" dalimon !?@?@?@?

;)
christaylor - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#435297) #
How to with John Wilson is an amazing show and this season, especially this past week went to another level. Highly recommended.
Mike Green - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#435299) #
Does anyone else mute the sound on the broadcast, and just go with the video, and music for audio? I've been doing that more. 
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#435300) #
Clement already missing those AAA robo-umps.

greenfrog - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#435301) #
Why does Vlad swing at so many first pitches? Sometimes it works out, but he (and the team) seem to miss out on a lot of deep counts and potential walks as a consequence of his approach.
92-93 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#435302) #
I remember when it drove fans crazy how often Vernon swung at the first pitch. Vladdy is hitting .436/.449/.594 on the first pitch in '23, in line with his career.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#435303) #
Greenfrog, I imagine he’s trying to simply the approach and take the thinking out of it
Chuck - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#435305) #
Does anyone else mute the sound on the broadcast

Yes, and the decision is largely a function of who's in the booth.

Mike Green - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#435306) #
How is the OBP higher than the BA when he swings at the first pitch?  It should be lower because of the exclusion of sac flies from the BA calculation and inclusion for OBP.
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#435307) #
i've been mostly keeping the game muted in the background while doing other things this year but that's mostly because i've been getting way too upset this year when giving games full attention.
92-93 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#435308) #
The HBP count because it's a result, but good point.

Letting hittable pitches go by just because they are the first pitch is a really bad strategy. Being selective is good.
Mike Green - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#435309) #
It's funny.  One annoying commentator is enough to get me spinning tunes.  Nonna's new record today- the songs are good and you can really hear Aaron Dessner's influence. 
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#435310) #
mute the sound on the [TV] broadcast,

Watching Bell TV, the radio broadcast in the city delivers a 10-second advance buffer.  Also, the radio feed provides much more ambience of the stadium.

Instead of play-by-play, inquiring minds wonder about the music set-list?

greenfrog - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#435311) #
It would be interesting to see Vladdy’s first pitch splits from around April (when he was hot) to the last few months (when he’s been relatively cold).

From a team perspective, frequent swings at first pitches can be frustrating when you have a pitcher whose control is lacking (because you miss out on walks) or a pitcher whose pitch count you’re trying to run up (to put pressure on him and get to the bullpen more quickly). But sure, if you can consistently hit .400+ on the first pitch, go for it. And hey, Vladdy is 1/2 with a double swinging at first pitches today.
greenfrog - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#435312) #
Go Mets (up 3-0 on Texas in the sixth).
uglyone - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#435313) #
he's out. review that.
Mike Green - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#435314) #
I'm appropriately listening to the Sounds of Silence- did not know that Glen Campbell played the lead guitar and Hal Blaine the drums.  Schneider could have done better on the tag there.  
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#435315) #
Schneider was late getting to the bag and blew that tag, IMO. The ball beat him by plenty but he held the glove flat in front of the base and let Abrams slide around it. He’s doing the best he can, but I feel that Chapman would have gotten the tag down
Chuck - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#435316) #
did not know that Glen Campbell played the lead guitar

It feels like that for that period in music history, unless you have a specific reason not to, just assume Wrecking Crew.

Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#435317) #
Umpires: HP: Paul Clemons. 1B: Jeremie Rehak. 2B: Chad Fairchild. 3B: Nic Lentz.

The crew chief Paul Emmel is absent.  Paul Clemons is a Triple-A call-up.
Mike Green - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#435318) #
Good advice, Chuck.  Moving forward to Palehound's Molly and Prince's version of Nothing Compares to U. 

Hopefully we see a few innings from Bowden Francis here. 
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#435319) #
I honestly can't remember the last time Kiemaier got a hit.
greenfrog - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#435320) #
Francis is a good idea but this is apparently too radical for Schneider here. Looks like it’s going to be the leverage crew working innings 6-9 tonight (unless the Jays score some more runs).
lexomatic - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#435321) #
Clemons has made some brutal calls tonight
92-93 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#435322) #
Great work from Richards and Cabrera, as usual. I prefer a fresh Francis with a 3-run lead over Hicks pitching for the 3rd time in 4 days.
greenfrog - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#435323) #
Alas, Texas came through in the clutch with a bases loaded, two out single T9, to pull ahead of the Mets 4-3.

That is the kind of outcome that could end up costing the Jays a playoff spot. We’ll see.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 28 2023 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#435324) #
In my 25 years of watching baseball I've never seen a team as dominant as the Os, offensively. Jot so much total offense but in so far as a connected office that delivers over and over again. The Braves were similar but different in the playoffs. I'm looking forward to seeing them in them in the playoffs...they look unstoppable.

scottt - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#435327) #
Schneider needs work on the tag. Is that why there is so many stolen bases in the minors? Players don't know how to block the base and tag?

Not a fan of warming up Francis every inning just in case the Jays take a 4 run lead.
That's like the pitchers union managing the bullpen.

I don't mind Clement as a call up if Schneider can hold up at third which I still don't know since nothing was hit his way.

Hicks walked a guy on a sweeper. That shouldn't happen in the 9th inning.
Especially not to the 8th hitter.

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#435328) #
They don't have the starting pitching, Dalimon, but I think you're right. In terms of lineup balance, productivity, talent, consistent tough, pesky at-bats, they're similar in style to the great Yankee teams of 96-2001. No mammoth numbers, not a lot of flash, but just 1-9 tough, tough, tough.
The back end of the bullpens are also similar with Bautista bursting on the scene like a young Mariano Rivera. If this team adds an ace starter in free agency, or a combination of two solid #2's, they'll be a 100+ win team juggernaut for a few years.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#435329) #
Wait what? Baltimore's not close to being dominant offensively, even compared to just this year's teams, let alone historically.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#435330) #
I'm with uglyone on this one, because stats say he's 100% correct. But if you ignore stats and just go eye of the beholder, than maybe yeah.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#435331) #
There was one ball hit into the 5-6 hole that the radio broadcast thought Chapman might have made. And ya, that tag by Schneider was terrible on a strong throw from Jansen, it was like he was suspended in time.
Glevin - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#435332) #
"Wait what? Baltimore's not close to being dominant offensively, even compared to just this year's teams, let alone historically."

Yeah, when I think of dominant offensive teams, I think of like the 70s Reds where everyone could hit (In 1976 had an OPS+ over 100 and 4 hitters had an OPS+ of over 140) or 90s Cleveland teams with Thome, Manny, Justice, etc...Baltimore is 5th in the league in OPS+ with no real elite hitters.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#435334) #
I never used the word dominant. But you can't argue with the consistency in their lineup. They don't have any stars that inflate the team offensive numbers, but it seems they consistenly get production and contributions 1-9. They have 7 guys in their lineup with a .750+ OPS. The great Yankee teams at their pinnacle had even better consistency and production than that, but what I'm saying is the O's are heading down that road, on pace for 97 wins this season.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#435335) #
Sorry, I stand corrected. Looking at the O's team OPS, it's .744, much lower than I thought. For reference, the 97 Yankees team (near the lower end of the great run the team had was .799).

So yeah, ugly, agree with you. This 'aint no juggernaut.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#435336) #


* DH O'Hearn 268pa, 128wrc+ ----- DH Belt 374pa, 132wrc+
* RF Santander 524pa, 122wrc+ --- SS Bichette 506pa, 129wrc+
* SS Henderson 484pa, 120wrc+ --- 1B Guerrero 550pa, 116wrc+
* C Rutschman 562pa, 119wrc+ ---- 3B Chapman 520pa, 113wrc+
* 1B Mountcastle 413pa, 119wrc+ - C Jansen 293pa, 113wrc+
* CF Mullins 351pa, 114wrc+ ----- CF Kiermaier 322pa, 104wrc+
* LF Hays 463pa, 114wrc+ -------- RF Springer 548pa, 103wrc+
* 2B Frazier 383pa, 92wrc+ ------ 2B Merrifield 504pa, 103wrc+
* 3B Urias 330pa, 92wrc+ -------- LF Varsho 488pa, 82wrc+

* OF Hicks 155pa, 122wrc+ ------- UT Schneider 48pa, 275wrc+
* C McCann 273pa, 84wrc+ -------- C Kirk 323pa, 89wrc+
* UT Westburg 162pa, 90wrc+ ----- UT Biggio 229pa, 88wrc+
* IF Mateo 307pa, 60wrc+ -------- IF Espinal 205pa, 61wrc+
* OF McKenna 132pa, 85wrc+ ------ UT Clement 14pa, 196wrc+
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#435337) #
The O's have had a lesser offence than the Rays.

What is impressive to me is where they are going. I've seen Holliday and his swing is beautiful. Between Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday and Westburg, they're going to have a devastating core for years to come. And they might a World Series before the core has fully arrived if they add some pitching.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#435338) #
I think the big thing with Baltimore is that they hit well with RISP and they play hard all the time. I don't know what the stats are but I'd wager they make a lot less bone-headed plays running the bases than the Jays.

By the way, does anyone remember spring training and Schneider's attention-to-detail mantra? They must have skipped the session in Baseball 101 where, if you're on second base, don't run if the ball is hit in front of you until you see it go through and instead focused on the right way to tie your cleats.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#435339) #
Baltimore's success this season is primarily a by-product of luck. Whether it is RISP, old man Pythagoras, or Ryan O'Hearn magically becoming good at baseball at the age of 30, much of their success will be hard to repeat. The core of Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, and Rodriguez gives them a solid path forward, but as we have seen with the Jays, that road to stardom isn't always a straight path.

I omitted Westburg from the core as I am unimpressed - his prospect standing seems tied mostly to draft position.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#435340) #
My opinion about Westburg does have a subjective element. He hits the ball hard, runs very well and fields second base well. His W/K isn't great, but subjectively, I liked his approach and felt that it would likely improve to average in a year or two.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#435341) #
" Baltimore's success this season is primarily a by-product of luck."

I don't know if you read The Athletic, Hodgie, but there is an article there today that concluded just what you said. Combining statistics, their lack of injuries ( bottom 3 in games lost to injuries), run differential and record in one-run games, and the article surmised that Baltimore was one of the 3 luckiest teams this year along with the Brewers and Reds.

It did, however acknowledge that the Orioles have good situational hitting and hustle on the basepaths. Having a young team helps in the injury department, too.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#435342) #
"What is impressive to me is where they are going. I've seen Holliday and his swing is beautiful. Between Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday and Westburg, they're going to have a devastating core for years to come. And they might a World Series before the core has fully arrived if they add some pitching."


hitters 25yrs and under

* Rutschman (25): MLB 1032pa, 126wrc+ (AAA 239pa, 139wrc+)
* Bichette (25): MLB 2233pa, 128wrc+ (AAA 250pa, 110wrc+)

* Henderson (22): MLB 616pa, 122wrc+ (AAA 295pa, 137wrc+)
* Guerrero (24): MLB 2720pa, 130wrc+ (AAA 162pa, 180wrc+)

* Cowser (23): MLB 77pa, 39wrc+ (AAA 428pa, 134wrc+)
* Kirk (24): MLB 1078pa, 114wrc+ (AAA 56pa, 143wrc+)

* Westburg (24): MLB 162pa, 90wrc+ (AAA 714pa, 129wrc+)
* Schneider (24): MLB 48pa, 275wrc+ (AAA 467pa, 137wrc+)

* Ortiz (24): MLB 34pa, 15wrc+ (AAA 480pa, 131wrc+)
* ---

* Stowers (25): MLB 131pa, 71wrc+ (AAA 744pa, 120wrc+)
* Horwitz (25): MLB 10pa, 100wrc+ (AAA 678pa, 130wrc+)


young AAA

* Mayo (21): AAA 153pa, 97wrc+ ----- AA 492pa, 154wrc+
* Orelvis (21): AAA 139pa, 109wrc+ -- AA 784pa, 105wrc+

* Norby (23): AAA 575pa, 105wrc+ --- AA 295pa, 157wrc+
* Barger (23): AAA 330pa, 111wrc+ -- AA 198pa, 147wrc+


Don't have a Holliday as of yet but let's see what Nimmala can do.


Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#435343) #
Defence and baserunning, UO? All of the Orioles prospects run well and field well at premium positions. It's easy to build around that.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#435344) #
That Eno is a smart guy! I hadn't read the article but thanks for pointing it out. It struck me watching parts of the last series just how fortunate they have been. They are obviously a good team, I am just not sure how great they actually are.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#435345) #
Whoa! From MLBTR:

One possibility that’s currently under consideration would be at least occasional time back at the hot corner for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it seems. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that while the Jays aren’t currently planning to start Guerrero at third base in Chapman’s absence, they’re open to using him there late in games as they make substitutions around the diamond. Guerrero has been taking grounders at the hot corner in recent days.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#435346) #
The thing that has impressed me the most with the current O's roster is how much they grind out ABs - with Rutschman the leader of the band in that regard. The line-up isn't filled with great hitters but the Jays' pitchers have had real trouble "cruising through" their line-up. And, as mentioned above, their situation hitting (not just hits with RISP) is excellent. There is certainly an element of luck in their record, but they've earned some of that luck with plate approach, defense and base running.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#435347) #
FYI: after yesterday Schneider now has more PA than anyone outside of the core 12 hitters (IE: he is now #1 among 26th men on the roster for playing time). Just 48 - next is DeJong at 44, then Lukes at 30, Heinemann 20, Luplow 17, Clement 14, and Horwitz 10. Net for that slot = 183 PA, next fewest is Espinal at 205, Biggio 229, Jansen 293, Kiermaier 322, Kirk 323, Belt 374. Rest are 488 and up, thus full seasons. Vlad is #1 in PA at 559.

32 games to go so another 100+ PA for anyone who plays everyday. Should be enough to get some idea if Schneider is for real and can take over 3B or LF or 2B in 2024. Not a lock though - past reminders - Russ Adams 2004 124 OPS+ over 78 PA, career 79 (age 23 rookie call up); Billy Hamilton (Reds) 150 OPS+ 13-1 SB-CS in 22 PA, never again reached 82 OPS+; Bill Sudakis (Dodgers 1968 age 22) 165 OPS+, lifetime 102. A fun article on September call ups (which Schneider isn't) at FanGraphs from 2012. Finally remembered who I was thinking of with Schneider - Shane Spencer (Yankees 1998) - in 73 PA he hit 373/411/910 with 10 HR at age 26. He never had a 100 OPS+ season again. He is a good warning that just because a guy is a world beater in August/September doesn't mean he will be in the following years. His previous 3 years OPS in the minors were 967-879-867 so the bat was there (all 3 years in AAA with a bit of AA the 867 year). Schneider does have a couple of advantages - 2 years younger is big, being able to play multiple positions well is also a big factor in his favor. I choose to hope for the best going forward. For funny coincidences both guys (Spencer and Schneider) were 28th round picks.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#435348) #
With the team facing 6 lefties in the next 8 games they want to have the option to PH with Belt and move him to 1B to keep him in the lineup.

Tonight's lefty, Gore, has reverse splits though, so we'll see how Schneider builds his lineup.
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#435349) #
I'm not worried - There's still plenty of time for the magnificent Blue Jays (Hey! Look at their analytics!) to overtake the lucky Orioles (Hey! Look at their analytics!). I think maybe they should just stop playing the games and go by what the analytics say.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#435351) #
"I'm not worried - There's still plenty of time for the magnificent Blue Jays (Hey! Look at their analytics!) to overtake the lucky Orioles (Hey! Look at their analytics!). I think maybe they should just stop playing the games and go by what the analytics say."

Did the ghost of Joe Morgan write this post?

christaylor - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#435352) #
John, for some reason, your post reminded me of that great hope of the Yankees in 1990 -- Kevin Maas. It's not quite the same as he had a half-season of play, but it is a reminder that you never know.
christaylor - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#435353) #
Kirk seems to have comfortably established over the last season and a half that he is a backup catcher and does not work as a comp with Cowser.

I buy the Bichette/Guerrero comp on offense, but the trouble is the O's in Rutschman and Henderson have two very good defensive players.

I have no love for the O's, and the game of inches has bounced their way this year, but their 3-5 year outlook is *much* better than the Jays. Their bizarre management and the Jays (seeming) willingness to spend might tip the scales in their favor.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#435354) #
L-C loved when Joe Morgan talked about Doc Gooden.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#435356) #
"Kirk seems to have comfortably established over the last season and a half that he is a backup catcher and does not work as a comp with Cowser."

this is the perfectly classic way that prospects get overrated.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#435358) #
The Yankees did have a few of those - Maas was 25 in his magic season - 252/367/535 with 21 HR (just 41 RBI as that was a bad team) in 300 PA. 150 OPS+ (different era). The next year playing full time he had a 100 OPS+ with 23 HR, then 99, then 97 OPS+ the following years, left in minors for the strike year and had a 938 OPS, 905 in AAA the next year and a final 22 games in the majors for the Twins with a 55 OPS+, followed by 2 more minor league seasons with 868 and 741 OPS's. Done after age 32. Had a brief time in Japan hitting 245/320/386 at age 31. A 22nd round pick he did more than most would've expected from a pick that late, but still was a disappointment thanks to that strong start and meh after as he was a 1B/DH only.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#435359) #
Easy to tell the ages of many here as we go through flashes in the pans from the late 80's and 90's. Phil Plantier for Boston is another. 178 OPS+ (331/420/615) at age 22 in 1991. Had a 104 lifetime OPS+. At 24 he had a 122 for San Diego but that was it for value for this LF/RF and even with that high OPS+ at 24 he was just a 1.7 WAR everyday player vs his rookie year's 2.2 in 175 PA.

FYI: Schneider is up to 1.3 bWAR, getting close to Belt's 1.6 in far less time. Shows how hard it is for a DH/1B to get value via WAR (Vlad at 1.1 this year).
Paul D - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#435360) #
Josh Donaldson was just released. I'm sure someone on Twitter has suggested that the Jays sign him to fill in for Chapman.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#435361) #
Jays should sign Donaldson imo.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#435363) #
This team could definitely use somebody to let them know it's the get it done league, not the try league.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#435364) #
Hodgie, What's the most important stat to you in baseball? FWAR? BWAR? NewWar? Spin Rate?

I feel 85BlueJay is referring to the fact that the most important stat is Winning percentage. If you knock the other guy out does it matter how "lucky" you were because he landed more punches and won more rounds based in metrics measuring such things? At the end of the day if you're on your ass and your opponent is standing over you then maybe the metrics and analytics used to explain why you were so unlucky don't matter.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#435365) #
The problem is wins, like all stats, are in the past now. So we try and predict which teams should get more future wins.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#435366) #
flashes in the pans

Old Strat-O-Matic players remember well the great short cards.

  • Yankee Kevin Maas and his RH spawn, Shane Spencer.
  • David Valle, before he established himself as a non-hitting, defense-first catcher, had a Schneider-like flash.
  • Kurt Bevacqua, known for his bubble gum skills, had a great age-30 season, though not as a rookie.
  • Ditto Roger Freed at age 31.
  • Luke Scott was an old rookie who looked, for ten minutes, like a modern day Yordan Alvarez.
  • Moonlight Graham got an inning in right field but called it quits on his career because he didn't want to keep Alicia waiting.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#435367) #
Why look at Kevin Maas when we had our very own Joshua Phelps.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#435368) #
I don't think they'd sign Donaldson even though it's probably worth a shot on paper, team chemistry aside. The subtext of that is WE ARE SO DESPERATE.

It has to be tempting though.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#435369) #
J.Donaldson

* 139wrc+ vLHP
* .076babip overall
* 92.8 Exit Velo
* 112.3 Max EV
* 11.1 Launch Angle
* 19.7 barrel %
* 51.3 hard hit%
* 11.9 swstrk%
* .349 xwOBA
* +3.9 uzr150 @ 3B (+4.6 last yr)
* +0 drs @ 3B (+7 last yr)

Yeah sign him.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#435370) #
Bo to the DL. McCoy up.

Yeah sign Donaldson.
Glevin - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#435371) #
Donaldson is pretty bad. Would rather play Biggio at 2B and Schneider at 3B or play Ernie Clement or Barger or whomever.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#435372) #
"If you knock the other guy out does it matter how "lucky" you were because he landed more punches and won more rounds based in metrics measuring such things? At the end of the day if you're on your ass and your opponent is standing over you then maybe the metrics and analytics used to explain why you were so unlucky don't matter."

Maybe not until your opponent's CTE sets in after all those extra headshots. I don't have a most important stat, what I lean on depends on the context of the conversation. In this case, I was discussing the Orioles' core and some of the factors behind the team's success this season. The Jays were only mentioned as a cautionary tale when charting prospect development. At that point the yelling at clouds began.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#435373) #
Odd choice in Mason McCoy - 28 year old has hit just 226/324/383 in AAA for the Jays & Seattle. 192/298/274 for Buffalo. This is his first ever call up. Steamer projected him to be a 59 wRC+ player if he got a shot. Hopefully he is gold glove level defense as otherwise he should just sit on the bench and gather dust. I'd rather see one of the hotshot kids get a shot, but I guess the Jays are trying to save their service time and not use up some of it for a 10 day IL stretch.

Hopefully we keep seeing Schneider at 3B and a mix of Espinal/Clement at SS with McCoy just the 26th man - pinch run, defense, nothing more. I wouldn't mind if he gets one start just to give him his shot, who knows maybe lightning in a bottle could happen but odds are it won't.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#435374) #
Fair enough re: Westburg Mike. To me, that sounds more like a complementary piece, but history is replete with those players becoming much more as their careers progress.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#435375) #
For the metrics vs results - I like metrics in guessing future results as things that can't be measured 'clutch' 'guts' 'effort' are rarely seen to last multiple seasons or even through a full season. For example, in 1987 Doyle Alexander was a god for the Tigers - 11 starts, team had an 11-0 record with him on the mound, but before the trade he was with Atlanta with a 105 ERA+ and had a 99 the year before that. Come playoffs he was 0-2 in 2 starts 10 ER in 9 IP and the Tigers went home quickly. I know many here could come up with dozens of other examples (I could too if I put some more thought into it) but the fact is a player or team is clutch until they aren't.

A Jays example is Joe Carter - the ultimate late & close guy in 1993 (touch them all) - in 1994 he hit 188/222/438 in late & close situations. Heck, in 1993 (non-playoff) he hit 227/284/375 in late & close! Sure didn't read as a guy you'd expect to get the biggest clutch home run, but such is baseball (and poor Mitch Williams).
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#435376) #
Donaldson this season is a complete mystery. His power is still there (10 HRs in 106 ABs), but he somehow managed to only get 5 hits on (I believe) 66 balls in play despite perfectly good exit velocity, normal average launch angle, fine GB/FB ratio, and no excess infield flies. Part of the answer is that he just didn't hit line drives - but even so, the league BABIP is basically LD% + 10. Even with a 7.9% LD rate, he should have a significantly higher BABIP. I'd expect him to hit a few more line drives, and actually get the occasional hit on other balls in play.

Sign him. Its not as if our clubhouse chemistry is so dynamic that he's a danger to our intangibles.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#435377) #
Sign him now and he's playoffs eligible.

Surely we'd rather have him than Mason McCoy.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#435378) #
If you prefer the statistical side, Westburg is performing at 3.6/650PA bWAR and fWAR pace this year.  He is somewhat underperforming his batted ball info as well.  I can easily see him as a 5 WAR player.  That's an All-Star, but not an MVP candidate. 

Do the Orioles have a thing with unusual first names at least for baseball first names?  Jordan is, well, an epic name with deep BB roots but not really unusual.  Adley, Gunnar and Heston, though?  One Adley in major league history.  One Gunnar.  And no Hestons (yet). 
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#435379) #
The concept of grinding out at-bats always fascinates me for some reason. Would anyone be surprised that the difference between the grinding O's and the Jays is 1.5 pitches per game? Or that the Jays walk more, strike out less, chase less, and whiff less often than the O's?
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#435380) #
And almost all of that value has been driven by SSS defensive measures. His MiLB track record is good but not top-prospect worthy given his age and draft pedigree. One can make the argument that Davis Schneider has had an equally if not more impressive track record to date.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#435381) #
McCoy is no doubt someone the Jays are not worried about losing when removed from the 40-man. He is, no doubt, a placeholder and short term solution who is up to mostly sit on the bench or come in late in the game. He wasn't even playing SS regularly in Buffalo.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#435382) #
The argument that Davis Schneider has a more impressive pedigree is weak because of the obvious defensive differences. Westburg was a shortstop who could run and hit. They have understandably moved him off the position to 2B. Schneider was a second baseman who was stretched there. Maybe he'll make an adjustment and become an average defensive second basemam in which case he too might end up as a core piece. I'm rooting for Davis Schneider but I think Westburg is much more likely to happen.
scottt - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#435383) #
McCoy is potentially a pinch runner.

Just a few days before the rosters expend.
Maybe they'll go for a third catcher.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#435385) #
Donaldson is interesting - solid on defense still, has the power, but his issues are the same as the team has now - stats
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#435386) #
Sign him.

You guys are kidding, right?
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#435387) #
It will be interesting to see how Davis Schneider adjust to the league adjusting to him - I remember Carlos Delgado hitting about 8 homers in his first month before the league caught up to him - Schneider as a late rounder and slow riser is easy to root for.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#435388) #
Weird - had a lot more written but it vanished - basically Donaldson's xwOBA is the same as in 2020 when he had a 132 wRC+ vs the 75 he has this year. Much like how Vlad has a 385 xwOBA vs his wRC+ of 116 (347 last year led to a 132 wRC+). IMO the Jays would be negligent not to look at Donaldson and ask a few guys about him - he seemed to be around Vlad a lot last year whenever possible. IMO if his clubhouse cancer stuff is the usual crap and maybe coming back to Toronto would be a good thing for him. At the ML minimum the risk is minimal. However, right now I'd rather have Schneider keep playing at 3B - much better potential in the future for the team there, and I don't see Merrifield or KK being benched for anyone right now.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#435389) #
One last Donaldson note: the Yankees released him while he was still on the 60 day IL. Very odd. He wasn't eligible to come off it until mid-September it seems. Not sure if that affects if he can play for a team now or if he has to wait until that IL time is up, as the Yanks manager said he looks ready to play when he did some batting practice a few days ago.
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#435390) #
I see the Angels decision to go all in has backfired on them spectacularly - another upteempth years in irrelevance coming.
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#435391) #
I read that the Yankees apparently did him a favour by releasing him - after he clears waivers he will have about a day plus to sign with a new team to be playoff eligible.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#435392) #
The Schneider love (as understandable as it is) has to be tempered. In his two stints in Vancouver Schneider wasn't even a full time player. He was platooned heavily. I have liked Schneider a lot over the years for his sustained record of broad offensive contributions, but a lot is going to have to break right for him to be more than a back-up bench bat. The one thing that would really help is if the power surge in 2023 has legs going forward.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#435393) #
Aren't his wife and child Canadian?
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#435394) #
According to Passan:

The Los Angeles Angels have placed starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#435395) #
Interesting, MacKenzie Gore has reverse splits but the Jays are featuring a lineup with 8 RHH.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#435396) #
I see the Angels decision to go all in has backfired on them spectacularly

That is the most common way of looking at it. But what is the #1 priority of a baseball team? To win? That's #2. It's to make money. And in that sense it's only failed somewhat. If they had traded Ohtani, instead of going for it, most fans would have been furious. Fans are much more forgiving for trying and failing than for throwing in the towel. And the more fans you don't drive away, the more money can be made.

Waveburner - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#435398) #
Interesting, MacKenzie Gore has reverse splits but the Jays are featuring a lineup with 8 RHH.

I don't think the Jays have ever paid attention to reverse splits of a pitcher in my time following the team. A team like the Rays always seems to pay attention to those details.
scottt - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#435399) #
Just to save money if someone pick up their contracts.
That was some "all in".

The play the A's next. 2 weak teams in the ALW is going to booster the other 3 teams.

And the Yankees do the same with Harrison Bader. Cute.

lexomatic - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#435400) #
I'm 100 % against Donaldson reunion. He said some indefensible racist bs to Tim Amderson, I think. I don't care if he's a hardass and kicks the rest of the team in gear. Lots of people didn't like him last time, and that's not necessary. But bringing back a known bigot is a no go for me. I don't care if he helps the team win.
scottt - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#435401) #
It's not the results with Schneider as much as the method.
He has a compact swing and he doesn't alter it to chase outside balls like Vladdy is doing presently.
There is some cases where putting the ball in play with a weak ground ball has some value but often it leads to 1 or 2 outs.
Schneider is being attacked with high fastballs but he hammers them.
That might not continue.

scottt - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#435403) #
That seems short term thinking.
What kind of team are the Angels going to field next year? Will the fans come in droves to watch it?

scottt - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#435404) #
A starter's reverse's split is just one side of the equation.
The lefties who have good numbers against them are probably the guys who play everyday like Devers and Othani rather then the platoon lefties like Kiermaier, Biggio and Belt.

Might have been different if anybody had ever faced the guy before. 

Ducey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#435405) #
Josh is the Bringer of Pain at this point.

He wont beat Chapman off the IL, and isnt better than Belt/ Schneider/ Horwitz for a DH spot.

He has only managed 30 starts this year, none since mid July, and its not like he set the word on fire last year either. 148/225/434 is almost Zimmer like

He is clearly done. The Jays should stay away.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#435406) #
Angels playoff odds are zero. The players on waivers are all free agents after the season.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#435407) #
He said some indefensible racist bs to Tim Amderson, I think.

You may have heard more about that incident than I have.
christaylor - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#435408) #
It is true that most prospects won't have as productive a career as a backup catcher who'll bounce around until his body gives out.

That said, there's no way I can see to justify the comp bow, unless you believe Kirk is first half 2022 Kirk, which seems unlikely.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#435410) #
Easy on the bigotry comments...back it up instead of playing Mr. Righteous. He called him "Jackie," and later clarified he was referring to Tim Anderson's arrogance as Tim Anderson said "I consider myself the modern day Hackie Robinson," in an SI article.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#435411) #
He repeatedly called him "Jackie. " The reason is not credible. That's totally racist.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#435412) #
Tim Anderson can be provocative, and probably needs to be. But if he got Jose Ramirez angry, there's clearly no limit to who he provoke. I can certainly understand Anderson being offended by Donaldson, but I can also understand Donaldson being deeply irritated by anyone wrapping himself in Jackie Robinson's cloak. It irritated me.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#435413) #
Yeah i'll agree to disagree. Not a racist comment to me and I dont see any other actions or things from Donaldson to suggest he's racist.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#435414) #
Espinal's play was not a good defensive play, Dan.  Neither was Kiermaier's. And both of them have made good or even great defensive plays over the years.  Mute. 
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#435415) #
MacKenzie Gore has reverse splits but the Jays are featuring a lineup with 8 RHH.

I wouldn't take them too seriously. He didn't have reverse splits last year in San Diego, and this year we're talking about 120 or so at bats against LH batters and an absurd BABiP (.455)
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#435416) #
Here is an explanation for people who don't understand

https://thegrio.com/2022/05/23/calling-a-black-baseball-player-jackie-is-not-a-compliment/
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#435417) #
An earth shattering KABOOM?
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#435418) #
It was.  I heard it even though I had the broadcast muted! 
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#435420) #
"Words lead to thoughts, which lead to actions, which lead to us catching hell." What on earth is this author talking about in relation to a baseball game? What action is Donaldson going to take that leads to hell based on words he chose?

"calling shortstop Tim Anderson out his name by referencing the patron saint of Black ballplayers, stirring emotions that sparked a near-brawl later in the game."

This point of view pretends that only Black people consider Jackie Robinson a hero. It assumes that Donaldson or any non black person does not look up to Jackie Robinson which is ridiculous.

The article finishes by noting Donaldson clarified any confusion:

"Obviously [Anderson] deemed it was disrespectful, and if he did, I apologize,” Donaldson told reporters. “That’s not what I was trying to do.”

The article is an op ed.



hypobole - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#435421) #
Starting pitching has been pretty mediocre the past couple of weeks.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#435422) #
A return by Donaldson would be much like Randy Moss re-joining the NFL Vikings.

Luis Rivera is back to uniform # 20.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#435423) #
Wouldn't it be nice if the Jays got runners on base before they had two outs?
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#435425) #
A return by Donaldson would be much like Randy Moss re-joining the NFL Vikings.

More like Moss rejoining New England, surely. Donaldson going back to Oakland would be like Moss rejoining the Vikings.

I'm always doubtful about brining back anyone, no matter how much fun they were the first time around. It always seems like something the Leafs would do, although it's actually worked out fairly well when the Blue Jays have done it
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#435426) #
You can not stop him. You probably can't even contain him.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#435427) #
"It is true that most prospects won't have as productive a career as a backup catcher who'll bounce around until his body gives out."

Writing off a 24yr old major leaguer with very good mlb stats while crediting a 24yr old milb leaguer with less impreesive milb stats, let alone mlb stats, is the height of not appreciating the downside inherent in all prospects.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#435428) #
it strikes me that the silver lining of our recent losing ways would be that we have better waivers priority than we probably should have. would seem a waste to let that opportunity pass.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#435429) #
uh oh.

slippin, slippin, slipppin......
Magpie - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#435431) #
Randal Grichuk has two doubles and a homer tonight!
hypobole - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#435432) #
Our starting pitching has been pretty mediocre the past couple of weeks.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#435433) #
Why was Jackson sent down without a corresponding move?
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#435434) #
The Rays, Astros and Rangers are all winning tonight. Seattle plays later on. The Jays are in trouble.

If the Jays fall out of contention, I suppose the silver lining to 2023 is the emergence of Schneider and the development of a number of other prospects in the system. The farm looks better than it did earlier this year. The team could field several rookies in 2024 (Schneider, Orelvis, Barger, Roden, Horwitz, Tiedemann). Maybe Jimenez too, if he can stay healthy. This would allow the team to focus on a smaller number of off-season acquisitions. And maybe the fresh influx of talent will change the team culture / vibes / energy for the better.
soupman - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#435435) #
“I am a real cerebral guy in the field, I’m kind of like today’s Albert Einstein”. If he had said that, I’m sure no one would have mocked him. But…if they did it would be because of antisemitism and *not* because the statement is ridiculous. Josh Donaldson might be racist idk, but Tim Anderson deserved to be ridiculed. I could dial that back had the reporter asked a leading question - but when I read the story it was written as if the comparison was sui generis.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#435436) #
Contained him.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#435437) #
"Our starting pitching has been pretty mediocre the past couple of weeks."

but they're very well rested at least.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#435438) #
With Bo out is Schneider our best hitter?

Also they have been going five man lately they’ve just been having some days off. Hasn’t it been over two weeks since Manoah pitched?
Chuck - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#435439) #
It looked like Biggio had his maw stuffed with tabacky. Is that a thing players still do? It must have been something else, surely.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#435440) #
Sometimes gum and sunflower seeds
Ducey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#435441) #
The play at the plate is confirmed: Kirk is incredibly slow.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#435442) #
Davis Schneider walk off homer in the 9th.
Ducey - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#435443) #
Hopefully Casey can beat Finnegan.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#435444) #
all eyes on Petey Baseball.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#435445) #
christaylor - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#435446) #
Benji Molina would have been there in standing up at 10 years Kirk's senior.
jz6pwc - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#435447) #
I am racking my brain trying to figure out a valid explanation as to why you do not pinch run for Kirk in that situation... maybe when he was at second??? maybe??? but at 3rd with 1 out when there are multiple ways to score in that situation.  Makes no sense to me.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#435448) #
Makes no sense to me.

And if you're not going to pinch-run for him don't compound the issue by sending him home on that flyball.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#435449) #
Is this officially now a Season from Hell?
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#435450) #
manager was traumatized from the pinch runner losing last game.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#435451) #
Jays team RISP 1/11 tonight
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#435452) #
The 1 was a Davis Schneider double.
LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#435453) #
Complete with Gabriel Moreno self-actualization.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#435454) #
It’s not just the RISP number - it’s a whole pile of stench when it comes to situational hitting.
Kelekin - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#435455) #
Schneider apparently said Belt was unavailable and they wanted to have Kirk's bat if the game went...to the 11th inning. And that if Kirk had been the tying run they would've pinch run for him.

What? What am I reading? I have spent the year defending the fact he has taken a lot of criticism for decisions that any manager would have made, but this is indefensible.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 29 2023 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#435456) #
"Schneider on the Kirk send in the eighth: “The odds of a medium depth fly ball with an average throwing outfielder and Kirky at third was probably last on my bingo card.” #Bluejays"
John Northey - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#435457) #
If that was the last thing he expected in that situation then he wasn't thinking very hard. A wild pitch also would've been an issue. Once Kirk was on base running for him should've been an automatic - what the heck was he saving McCoy for? Didn't use him as a runner, didn't use him for defense, guess he is here just to collect ML service time. Sigh.

Bottom of the 8th, odds are Kirk won't get up again, he is the DH, he is standing at 2B - who the heck else would you run for and why? IMO if it is the 8th or later and you don't run for Kirk you need your head examined if it is close. Running for Schneider was bizarre - he isn't slow. Running for Kirk is something that should be automatic. If there ever was a reason for a designated runner Kirk is it.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#435458) #
I think I'm over the 2023 season, and there's still a month left. It's a shame that the Jays are likely going to waste such a good (and healthy) season from the pitching staff. Seasons like this on the pitching side don't happen often. Even with 4 of the 5 starters coming back next season, plus possibly a better version Manoah, there's no guarantee they will collectively pitch as well as they have this season.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:23 AM EDT (#435459) #
I get strong Leaf vibes off this team. They have lots of stars but haven't accomplished anything. I think most of us at the start of the season were confident that the Jays would contend for first place in the division, or a wild card spot. at least. Even in July, before Seattle got hot, I thought they had a good chance to get in, but now ... (sigh)
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 06:55 AM EDT (#435460) #
Let them have the wins, we have analytics!
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#435461) #
This team has NEVER recovered from last years woeful exit. Need agood manager. This team can be very good. They just need some swagger and confidence.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#435462) #
I think the team is suffering from multiple traumas from 2021-2023 under Montoyo/Schneider, all adding up to a failure to launch.
mathesond - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#435464) #
Why exactly was Mattingly hired? We're not seeing smart baseball, either on the field or from the dugout - so what does he bring to the team?
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#435465) #
Who ok'ed Bo Bichette activation - same thing happened with Springer a few years ago, had to be put on IL soon after being activated. Was this a desperation activation?
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#435466) #
That fella in Atlanta must be walking around with a big grin on his face.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#435467) #
Doctor Frankenstein can inject some electricity into this team. (As a matter of fact, Herman Munster was a pretty good ballplayer.)
scottt - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#435468) #
He said he would have pinch run if Kirk would have been the tying run.
That instantly void the logic of keeping Kirk's bat for overtime.
He's basically saying that he didn't bother.
It's a lot like a runner not running to first on a routine play.

Paul D - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#435469) #
What's a bit striking to me about Schneider the manager is that he really doesn't seem any different from Montoyo. There was all this talk about accountability and so on, but he really seems to be using the exact same playbook at Montoyo. (I suppose that could mean it's coming from the front office).

I also thought it was strange that he was named interim manager and then there didn't seem to be much of a search before naming him the permanent manager. I get that perhaps managers don't matter as much as some of us think they do... but they do matter.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#435470) #
"I get strong Leaf vibes off this team"

Again, the Leafs are an elite top-5 team year in year out, and are younger than the jays. They're also on their 3rd GM in the shapiro/atkins era.

There is no comparison between the two.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#435471) #
Let them have the wins, we have analytics!

Just read the other day Schneider ignores a lot of the analytics. Likes to go with his gut.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#435472) #
Quick responses:

"That fella in Atlanta must be walking around with a big grin on his face."

Dude gets put on notice he is being fired. Dude empties out a chunk of the farm and goes for it. Dude declines a job offer from new FO. Dude goes to work under Andrew Friedman in LA. Dude takes over top 2 farm systems in baseball with brand new rich ownership and stadium. Dude has been walking around with a grin on his face since he was put on notice by Rogers. Who wouldn't be happy to leave a place where you're constantly trying to find ways to survive and compete day in and day out in the AL East? AA in Toronto never signed free agents to big deals and never had a farm or draft that really panned out. If Atlanta AA was here to begin with then he never would have left.

"What's a bit striking to me about Schneider the manager is that he really doesn't seem any different from Montoyo. There was all this talk about accountability and so on, but he really seems to be using the exact same playbook at Montoyo. (I suppose that could mean it's coming from the front office)."

I absolutely agree with this. I am convinced now more than ever that the FO calls most of the shots and the net result is a vanilla-fication of the manager and bench coaches. It doesn't matter who replaced Guillermo Martinez or Schneider or Montoyo or Mattingly because they're all just puppets in one way or another to "the khacki's." Therefore this team needs a manager who will dictate the managing of the team himself. The one thing the team can improve on using the same model (FO runs the managing) is at least having a manager who can better motivate his players to get the most out of them. It is clear Atkins has no penchant for finding a good manager as he is 0/2.

"Just read the other day Schneider ignores a lot of the analytics. Likes to go with his gut."

Please provide reference...I do not believe this.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#435473) #
I don't buy that Blue Jay starting pitching has been any more than slightly above average. Yes, the ERAs are much better than that, but three other things ho into the starter ERA than actual starter performance- the ballpark, the defence and the bullpen support with inherited runners. All three factors have been supporting Blue Jay starters.

The xERAs of Blue Jay starters with 200+ balls in play: 3.77, 4.13, 4.36, 4.70 and 6.20. This would be entirely average, but I am prepared to give Blue Jay starters some credit for the overperformance in sequencing. For comparison, the Blue Jay bullpen xERAs with 50+ balls in play are: 2.80, 3.09, 3.21, 3.31, 3.48, 3.51, 3.58, 3.61, 3.69, 3.88, 5.20 (Bass), 6.00 (Cimber). There are 9 relievers who have pitched a significant number of innings with better xERAs than the starter with the best xERA (Gausman). That is unusual.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#435474) #
I don't buy that Blue Jay starting pitching has been any more than slightly above average.

By replacing Arash Madani with Arden Zwelling as an on-field talking head, the broadcaster's strategy was clearly to supplant the former's treacly human interest stories (still Hazel's bailiwick) with "analytics". I use the quotes because numbers alone are not analytics any more than calling Scott Carson a statistician makes him a statistician.

The weapon of choice is arbitrary endpoints. Find a window that best pushes the narrative of "this player is hot". So if he is 12 for 30 in his past 10 games, and 0 for 4 in the 11th, ignore the 11th since it doesn't serve the narrative. Do not mention that he is 12 for his last 34.

While no small amount of lip service has been, rightfully, paid to the defensive improvements offered up by Varsho and Kiermaier, both deserving of gold gloves (in the non-Vladdy category), those offering up "analytics" seem unwilling or unable to connect the dots. The performances of the "good as its ever been in this team's history" starting staff are never contextualized as Mike has done. Would doing so tread on a more pleasant narrative? Or is this all symptomatic of a broader innumeracy that is pervasive in our world, even among those charged with spewing out numbers as insight on baseball broadcasts? Are the talking heads just doing the best they can, ham-fistedly wielding numbers as cudgels? It is certainly painful to watch.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#435475) #
"I don't buy that Blue Jay starting pitching has been any more than slightly above average. Yes, the ERAs are much better than that, but three other things ho into the starter ERA than actual starter performance- the ballpark, the defence and the bullpen support with inherited runners. All three factors have been supporting Blue Jay starters."

Mike, what you post is true, but is it fair that you're only applying that analysis to one team? Which teams have the best starting pitching in baseball that do not benefit from the same things as this Toronto team, and further... does it matter if the results do not correlate with the underlying predictors and stats?

This is the best performing starting rotation this team has had in a long time in so far as keeping the team in games, giving up less runs and pitching 6+ innings. Add the consistency, the health and the fact that most starts have been against better opponents in low scoring games and it seems, to me at least, to argue that this starting rotation is slightly above average...
Nigel - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#435476) #
All true Mike - but I would make a few observations in favour of the starters. They have been healthy and have, relative to the modern starter usage paradigm, given the Jays innings. I don't think its a stretch to say that that has had some hand in the bullpen's relative effectiveness. The ying and the yang of modern pitching staffs if you will. The other factor that I feel quite strongly about is the negative impact on the pitching staff in general brought about by the lack of run scoring early in games. The starters have worked a lot of stressful innings (in both senses - they haven't been pitching in garbage innings (up or down)). Lastly, the starters as a group are excellent fielders so that also is a marginal tick in their favour.

Your broader point that they ERAs don't tell the whole story is absolutely bang on though. I think the starters have been about as lucky as the hitting has been unlucky so that the team's run differential is about right (unfortunately).
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#435477) #
The Mariners' starting pitching is considerably better. After that, there's a large knot where you can make arguments. Tampa's "starting" pitching has been batter, but they have a different model. I would have to look more closely at Texas. And so on. The only team that has obviously better starting pitching than the others is the Mariners. The Astros of course have the best pitching going into the playoffs with the acquisition of Verlander.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#435478) #
Arbitrary endpoints is of course antithetical to analytics.
soupman - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#435481) #
Tiedemann struck out 11 of 11 batters in AA. That's electric. If there wasn't such a track record of this organization bungling promotions in instances like this...i'd be thinking that is the kind of high leverage swing and miss that could be useful in the stretch and playoffs (a la David Price pre-rookie call up).

Evidently, there are problems in the club house. It seems like "maturity" from the outside. Didn't you think that it was HILARIOUS when Vlad dumped seeds on the pitching coaches' head on a televised interview? In all seriousness: Can someone explain to me the 'joke'? I honestly don't see what is supposed to be amusing.
scottt - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#435482) #
Playoffs odds are down to 46% at Bref and 38% at fangraphs.
So, it's most likely not happening.

The rotation is 5th in strikeouts which is not dependent on outside factors.
The pen is 6th.
The rotation is 17th in HR allowed while the pen is 22nd.
That's what's keeping them from being truly great.
The hitters are 16th in HR which is also the source of the scoring problems and they are 16th in run scored as well.
Anybody else misses the homerun jacket? Whoever thought that it was a problem?
All other good teams seem to have some sort of HR celebration gimmick.

Gerry - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#435483) #
Five 2B's in the lineup today, Merrifield, Espinal, Biggio, Schneider and Clement.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#435484) #
A good question with the staff is how they are doing vs last year when it comes to FIP - taking fielding out of the equation as we know the fielding (esp in the OF) is much better this year than last. Stats are FIP/ERA 2023, FIP/ERA 2022
  • Gausman: 2.84/3.30, 2.38/3.35 - ERA drops even with FIP going up
  • Berrios: 4.55/5.23, 4.19/3.70 - ERA drops 1.53 vs FIP 0.36
  • Kikuchi: 5.62/5.19, 4.22/3.63 - ERA drops 1.56 vs FIP 1.40 - guess his style isn't affected as much by defense
  • Manoah: 3.35/2.24, 6.03/5.87 - ERA jumps 3.63 vs FIP 2.68 - bad defense didn't hurt him last year, great defense couldn't save him this year
  • Ryu: 4.78/5.67, 3.85/2.25 - ERA drops 3.42 vs FIP 0.93 - big improvement both ways, but the defense is a big factor here.
  • Bassit: 4.63/4.00, 3.66/3.42 - ERA drops 0.58, FIP drops 0.97 - guess the Mets defense was more helpful than anyone knew.
So for the rotation it is clear the defense helped all but Manoah vs last year - I get a feeling nothing would've helped him this year.  Ryu seems to need strong OF defense the most but one would need to dig into OF metrics by starter to know for sure.

Team 2022: 3.85 FIP vs 3.87 ERA, 2023: 4.08 FIP 3.72 ERA - so defense in 2022 moved the ERA up 0.02 (not significant), but pushed it down 0.36 this year, about 11 ERA+ points (bigger than Berrios vs Bassitt, about dead on Kikuchi vs Bassitt).  It'll be interesting to see what the Jays do going forward towards 2024 in regards to defense vs offense with KK, Chapman, Merrifield, Belt all being free agents - 2 gold glovers, 2 meh.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#435485) #
Mike I still think you're way off in regards to the SP.

The SP are comfortably top 10 and borderline top 5 in mlb in all of FIP-, xFIP-, SIERA, and IP. The SP have been very very good as a group.

They've done slightly better than they "should" have in terms of ERA, which is mostly thanks to good defense, but there's a number of top ERA teams which can say the same - like TEX, ATL, SD.


Nigel - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#435486) #
Whit Merrifield as the clean-up hitter is pretty jarring given how badly he's slumping (56 wRC+ in the last 30 games) but it is fair to ask: if not Whit then what?

I think talk of exercising options or qualifying him will die away now (thankfully). I like the player but not at anything like those numbers.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#435487) #
The starters are tied with Boston for 9th in xFIP- at 96, just modestly ahead of Baltimore. If you want to say they're 4% better than average, go for it.

For myself, the contrast between the starter and reliever xERA and xwOBA is striking. I looked back at previous years going back to 2015 and there was only 1 year vaguely similar- and that was a year when the starters were just bad. Which this year's starters are not.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#435488) #
Comparing the performance of two star hitters in August:

Julio Rodriguez (114 PA): .429/.474/.724 (7 HR)

Davis Schneider (53 PA): .422/.509/.911 (6 HR)

Sorry, Julio. You've been amazing this month. But Davis has been better.
soupman - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#435489) #
Two others on heaters:

50PA: 340/380/638 (3HR)
89PA: 247/307/469 (4HR)

Guesses?

92-93 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#435490) #
Chad Green maxed out at 94.5 today and averaged 93.8. We'll see how his diminished FB translates this weekend in Colorado.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#435491) #
Not sure who you mean, soupman, but neither of those guys are nearly as hot as Teoscar Hernandez in August (.370/.402/.640 107PA 14R 6HR 19RBI). Hitters gonna hit.
scottt - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#435492) #
FIP is the stat I look at when my team has poor defense.
With good defense, I want good ERA which translate directly into run prevention.
Why should I care if FIP is bad and the success of the rotation is linked to playing games at the RC with Blue Jays position players?

Take WAR for example. If done properly, every win should raise the total WAR of the team by 1 and every loss should lower it by 1 and a team of replacement players wins only 52 games.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#435493) #
Teo is up to a 110 wRC+ on the season. So, a bit above average.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#435494) #
Yikes this coaching staff is just incompetent. How did they not challenge the called out on Schneider??? Fools.
krose - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#435495) #
All the silly review requests we’ve seen from Schneider this season and then he passes on this one. I get the feeling he’s saving it until one of his veterans has a close play. He appears to me to be an old style manager who attributes status to players and then gives playing time according to that, rather than to accomplishments on the field.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#435496) #
Today's home plate umpire is Chad Fairchild.
krose - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#435497) #
Evidently, there are problems in the club house. It seems like "maturity" from the outside. Didn't you think that it was HILARIOUS when Vlad dumped seeds on the pitching coaches' head on a televised interview? In all seriousness: Can someone explain to me the 'joke'? I honestly don't see what is supposed to be amusing.

The old elementary school teacher in me sees this as a huge issue. Sometimes it takes months to get the group singing from the same sheet. One of the pillars of success in that regard is respect. Another is fairness. Schneider is not strong on either of these.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#435498) #
Ernie Clement does indeed look good as a hitter.  Classic decent hitting shortstop look- reminds me of Jason Bartlett. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#435499) #
Clement's numbers in triple A this year were very good- 11 homers, 25 walks and 15 strikeouts.  Dan Shulman just mentioned this. 
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#435500) #
yeah Espinal better watch out.

then again, Espinal suddenly started hitting again as soon as clement came up.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#435501) #
and just for you Mike....Jays SP now up to #2 era-, #3 fip-, T-5 siera, #5 IP, and T-7 xfip- !!!
92-93 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#435502) #
Teoscar just hit a 3run bomb to tie the game 3-3. His 81 RBI would lead the Jays, a stat far more important than his OPS+.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#435503) #
Davis Schneider's pivot there was pretty decent.  Overall he looks like a competent second baseman so far, although we'll have to see a little more reps on tag plays.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#435504) #

Current 5-Man Rotation: 5.8ip/gs, 84era-, 90fip-, 91xfip-
Ducey - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#435505) #
Espinal suddenly started hitting again as soon as clement came up

To be fair, he also has started to get more playing time.

Eephus - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#435506) #
Agreed on Clement, Mike. He looks like a perfectly competent big leaguer to me. Like the approach.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#435507) #
or "a few more reps".  Sorry, Dewey, for the eyesore. 
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#435508) #
well we won. let's pray that one or both of SEA and TEX lose today, because the astros are way up on the sox.

but we really need to get some sweeps going, starting with the rockies this weekend.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#435509) #
Off to Denver.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#435510) #
The AL WC standings are pretty much aligned with run differential:

TB (+183)
Texas (+174)
Seattle (+107)
Houston (+100)
Toronto (+64)
Boston (+30)

Run differential is a pretty good shorthand for how good a team is, especially with the balanced schedule.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#435511) #
Vladdy, last guy to hustle on the field and first guy to bring the gatorade shower post game. Great look.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#435512) #
Teoscar's cannon arm nailed a runner at the plate down 4-3 in the 7th, and the Mariners take the lead in the bottom half. Sigh.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#435514) #
How hot has Schneider been? A 1-2 with 2 walks DROPPED his OPS by 1 point from 1.421 to 1.420. That is a hot hitter. Basically he is hitting like Bonds on PED's right now - Bonds best year with the bat was either 2002 with a 268 OPS+ or 2004 with a 1.422 OPS - yeah, only 57 PA for Schneider and his 282 OPS+ but to maintain that pace PED free for any stretch is a wow. FYI: Best Jays full season OPS was a 1.134 by Delgado in 2000, OPS+ 186 by Olerud in 1993. Btw, that 1.134 is the best Jays OPS ever for guys with 10+ PA. 19 times a guy had a higher one with 9 or fewer PA (mostly pitchers who went 1-1 most recent is Deck McGuire 2019, Jeff Tam holds the record going 1-1 with a double thus a 3000 OPS). Randy Ruiz's crazy 2009 callup where he hit 313/385/635 over 115 AB got us all excited but he was fairly old at 31 and only had 13 more ML games left (12 OPS+ in those 13 games). Just 8 times has a Jay had a 1000 OPS at the end of a season with 10+ AB's (Delgado twice, Olerud, Ruiz, Bautista, Lind, Vlad, and in 13 AB's John-Ford Griffin). Kirk came close in 2020 in 24 AB's but just shy at 983.

Basically what we are seeing from Schneider is a first in Jays history - we've had hot hitters but this is burning hot, beyond anything the Jays have had before. Especially from a legit rookie (guys in their 30's I have trouble calling 'rookies').
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#435515) #
Chris Bassitt was dynamite.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#435516) #
Davis Schneider has the highest minimum 50pa season wRC+ in MLB history at the moment at 280.

In 2nd place is the legendary Mule Suttles who put up a 269 in 116pa in 1927.

3rd is good old Bobby Boyd with a 264 in 59pa in 1948.

Coming in 4th is Theodore Samuel Williams, the Splendid Splinter himself, with a 255 in 110pa in 1953.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#435517) #
The Mets are up 3-1 on Texas after 5IP.

NY had a chance to break it open B5 but PH Francisco Alvarez hit into a DP with the bases loaded.

The Jays really need the Mets to somehow hang on and win this one.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#435518) #
Judging from the boxscore, Davis Schneider & Ernie Clement have acquitted themselves well (SSS and all)- I hope this will encourage the FO to give the other players doing well in Buffalo a fighting chance despite their lack of pedigree - The Jays do have many position players who will be free agents.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#435520) #
Hard to believe Davis has only 53 PA this month, despite the fact that he was called up on Aug. 4 (and started that game and went 2/5 with a home run).
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#435522) #
There has been a complaint filed by a second underage girl against Wander Franco and there is an allegation by a third girl yet to be investigated by police. It's stunning how the young star has seemingly torpedoed his career.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#435523) #
Rangers lose in extras. They are the obvious target now with the Jays hosting them for 4. Their only "easy" games left are 3 vs. OAK and 3 @LAA unless CLE and BOS fall out of it.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#435524) #
Island Boy - yep, just saw the article on it. 3 girls now, I'd say his career is toast. Rays are 11-4 since the news broke - go figure. Something like that should've been a major problem (losing your superstar SS to something that gross), plus they lost their ace at the same time to the IL. Yet the Rays just keep going along. So bizarre, they just have the front office dream. I give the Jays credit for trying to steal from there a bit with Montoyo, but the guy they really needed to take was Andrew Friedman (now president of the Dodgers). Joe Maddon is available though...
christaylor - Wednesday, August 30 2023 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#435526) #
I have my doubts that #6 will be the home nine but as it stands whoever is the #6 seed has a decent path to the AlCS given their opponents. Losing to the O's in a tight ALCS would be a big win for the Jays as strange as it sounds.
John Northey - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#435527) #
I still like the Jays odds of making it myself. Those 7 games between Texas and Seattle at the end (with a 3 game gap between series) looks likely to get them beating up on each other and giving the Jays a good opening. The Yankees were falling apart at the seams (3 game winning streak vs the Tigers notwithstanding) while Tampa Bay will be setting up for the playoffs when the Jays play the two of them. Yeah, both should be very tough still but not as tough as expected if the Jays were fighting for a playoff slot with them.

2 1/2 games can be made up very quickly (Texas), as can 3 1/2 (Houston & Seattle). 9 not so much (Tampa) and forget about the 10 1/2 behind Baltimore. It'll be interesting to see how things go the next few weeks. This team refuses to let us relax that is for sure.
hypobole - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#435528) #
Who is the Jays "team leader"? Thought about this when the Bring back JD talk came up. When he was here it was him. What he did seemed to work, at least as far as winning was concerned, even if he helped ruin Dalton Pompey's career.

Not saying the Jays need him or someone like him, but a hardass type might well be what this team needs. Because this seems a soft and lackadaisical organization.
uglyone - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#435529) #
Josh Donaldson
hypobole - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 02:19 AM EDT (#435530) #
"Make Toronto Great Again"
Jonny German - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#435531) #
Happy Harrison Bader Day to those who celebrate.

I see a parallel to 2020 Robbie Ray - bring in a talented veteran in a down season to fill a short-term role, with an eye to signing him to a pillow contract for the next year.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#435532) #
I will bet the house that it will not be "Happy Josh Donaldson day"
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#435533) #
"Make Toronto Great Again"

Hear, hear.

Jonny German - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#435535) #
Have the Jays officially announced their scheduled starters for Coors? I think a little shuffle make sense. If they stay on turn Ryu is first man up - he's made 6 career starts there and been lit up to the tune of .342 / .408 / .667 in 131 PA. And of course all of that was a Dodger, when he was generally excellent and zipping his fastball in at 91.

Bumping Ryu back to the first game in Oakland would see Kikuchi-Gausman-Berríos starting in Coors on regular rest. Then you'd have Ryu-Bassit-Kikuchi in Oakland before the off day next Thursday.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#435536) #
I'd leave the rotation where it is.  The Rockies have not been much against a LH starter this year and I think Ryu will do just fine there.  He has looked awfully good; indeed, I am of the view that the club should try hard to bring him back.  Tommy John was very good in his late 30s and I don't see why Ryu couldn't be. 
Mike Green - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#435537) #
BP has the winning headline for today-  The Dog Days Are Over. 
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#435538) #
Reminder that waiver claims position is ordered by lowest winning percentage across both leagues. This puts the Jays behind a few .500+ teams like BOS, MIN, ARZ, MIA and CIN.

I don't see Bader making it that far. Hopefully Renfroe is available.
scottt - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#435539) #
The curves don't work well in Colorado.
However, Ryu is historically great on 5 days of rest but bad on 7+.

scottt - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#435540) #
It's was a great game from Bassitt which gives the pen plenty of rest but with only  3K and 1BB it's pretty middling by FIP.
soupman - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#435541) #
Wasn’t the rumour at the deadline that the Jays had hit the ceiling of what they were allowed to spend?
Glevin - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#435543) #
A number of guys who could help Jays. Team doesn't really need pitching so I think they'll pass there. I think the best fit is probably Grichuk actually. He has a 146 WRC+ against lefties (last year 140) and would be a massive upgrade in LF against them over Merrifield. Renfroe doesn't have big splits this year but has before so he'd also be a big help. Bader is elite defensively but can't really hit and aside from this season's SSS doesn't have big splits so don't really see a perfect fit. Hard pass on Donaldson who is just bad and a headache to boot. (Yes, he has a historically low BABIP which will improve but he also has the highest ISO of his career at 37 which is going to get much lower).
Mike Green - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#435544) #
FWIW, if the Jays do make the playoffs, it appears to me that their best lineup against RHP might not include Merrifield- Schneider at second base and Varsho in LF.  At this point ZiPS projects Schneider as a 110 wRC+ hitter and Merrifield as a 93 wRC+ hitter.  I doubt that the defensive/baserunning difference is that large.  I am pretty sure that the John Schneider wouldn't see things that way; he's not alone in having a preference for veterans over young players. 
Glevin - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#435545) #
I am not sure if it was brought up, but Dan Szymborski said this about ZIPS for next season "Blue Jays have an absurd 13″…”offensive players under contract who project at 1.5 WAR or more in 2024”. That's fantastic depth. However, Jays biggest issue is that most of those players won't be more than 2 WAR. In fact, the only position player I'd be pretty comfortable projecting 2.5+ WAR going into next year would be Bichette. It is much easier to improve a team when you have weak spots. Much harder when you have OK players everywhere. Jays need either Vlad to be good (ideal) or one or two of the young guys to become better than 1.5-2 WAR players.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#435546) #
"Wasn’t the rumour at the deadline that the Jays had hit the ceiling of what they were allowed to spend?"

What I was hearing and reading in the outlets was that this FO didn't see enough from this team to go all in combined with the fact that most sellers became non sellers and prices were exorbitant to those that did sell.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#435547) #
"I am not sure if it was brought up, but Dan Szymborski said this about ZIPS for next season "Blue Jays have an absurd 13″…”offensive players under contract who project at 1.5 WAR or more in 2024”. That's fantastic depth. However, Jays biggest issue is that most of those players won't be more than 2 WAR."

This was basically Ugly's biggest fear for years under the Shapiro/Atkins direction. Accumulating wavs of cost controlled assets that end up being a middling bunch. They ended up adding Springer and they had Bo and Vlad which goes against that...but I think it's fair game now besides Springer to ask if this FO will pony up for star talent for the starting 9.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#435548) #
Bisons make good Blue Jays, much better than the DeJongs.
92-93 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#435549) #
There's no question that you want Schneider over Merrifield vs. a RHP if the playoffs started today, but they don't and so much will change by then. Let's hope Chapman and Belt are healthy and that they're forced to make that choice.

It's like discussing which Jays SP wouldn't be lined up to start in the Wild Card series. Last week the easy answer was Bassitt (and Ryu), but it's a fluid situation that changes every start.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#435550) #
If I had to pick my three starters for a WC series right now, I would choose Gausman, Kikuchi, Ryu, in that order. The situation may well be different in a month.
Ducey - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#435551) #
Well, the reality is that the offence has underperformed.

Varsho is at 1.7 WAR after going 2.3 and 4.8 the last 2 years.
Springer is at 1.6 after being at 4.2 last year
Vlad is at .5 after being at 2.8 last year and 6.3 the year before.
And so on.

We can expect some bounce back next year. I find it interesting that guys (with supposedly less talent) come up from AAA with a great approach and perform. That tells me they need to promote the AAA hitting coach(es) and get rid of the group they have in the majors.

And they have to find a way to make Valddy more disciplined in all aspects of his game. Or trade him if they wont.
Ducey - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#435552) #
To channel my inner Jim Mora,

"World Series?"
Glevin - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#435553) #
"but I think it's fair game now besides Springer to ask if this FO will pony up for star talent for the starting 9."

I don't really think it is fair. I think the Jays have showed pretty clearly that they will spend on talent and have done so pretty much every year. They have spent more on pitching recently but that has been because it's been a bigger need and better available value. The free agent market seems to be getting weaker as well and this year certainly is very weak. There really isn't any hitter available next year that would qualify as a star talent apart from Ohtani. Bellinger is having a great year but he had 3 bad years before this. He'd be a good fit for the Jays but because there are so few free agents, he might end up getting a silly deal. Other than that, the best guys available are guys like Gurriel, Teoscar, Hoskins, etc...who are more complimentary players. The Jays actually did a really good job adding Belt and Kiermeier as complimentary players this year. The issue is that Vlad, Springer, and Kirk are all WAY worse than you could have expected. They had 10.9 WAR last season. Their expected WAR was probably around 10-12 WAR because Vladdy was way down over previous year. This season, their actual WAR is 3.2.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#435554) #
Glevin I think you're right, but this offseason will tell us how legit the investments have been from the past 4 years vs ("we have generational talent and must invest around them.") Will they keep investing like this when Vlad or Bo are gone? I can see it going both ways.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#435555) #
Ernie Clement specifically credited Matt Hague with helping him make an adjustment. Davis Schneider and Alan Roden have also taken significant steps forward. I wonder who was involved in making their adjustments.
hypobole - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#435556) #
Hague with Schneider also

"He also made a slight swing change this year, adding a toe tap. It was Triple-A hitting coach Matt Hague's idea. He believed it would help Schneider consistently get into his lower half as quickly as possible, adding more bat speed."

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2689929

Lots of interesting things in the 2nd half of the article. Adding good muscle by actually following the advice of the team dietitian. Improving bat speed. Improving arm strength.

Paul D - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#435557) #
Matt Hague, wow that's a flashback to 2015 and the second game of the double header after they'd clinched a playoff spot... He seemed like he might have been the only guy in the lineup that night who could hit
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#435558) #
Off-day blues with the Yankees and Tigers.

L-C picked up a vintage video-game: " Super Baseball 2020 " published in 1993. Robot umpires? Robot ballplayers!

uglyone - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#435559) #
Conveniently, it sure looks like the big club could use a good hitting coach.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#435560) #
So everybody but Clevinger and Grichuk have been claimed by the Mariners, Reds and Guardians...
85bluejay - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#435562) #
I wouldn't be upset if the Jays fired the hitting coach TODAY and promoted Matt Hague or promote Hague to be an assistant, though that might be awkward.
Magpie - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#435564) #
it sure looks like the big club could use a good hitting coach.

Maybe they can find that guy they had last year, when they had the league's second best offense.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#435565) #
Or maybe they can find a guy that can a) impact the hitters or b)recognize the huge difference and find a way to improve it. You really make it seem like the hitting coach does nothing.

I'm sure there is a hitting coach out there that can improve things. Find out why Vlad sucks without Teoscar. Find a way to see pitchers tipping pitches. Do better prep in the video room. Whatever...something other than "it doesn't matter who the hitting coach is."

uglyone - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#435566) #
Coaches and managers can wear out their welcome. Never be afraid to try a new one imo.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#435568) #
I'd like to see Hudgens gone.
hypobole - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#435569) #
I'd be surprised if they outright fire Martinez. Probably re-assign him to the minors if they make an off season change, although that's probably for the best. At least it will be one less excuse.

Reading the Schneider article I posted, his drive and determination to become the best he can be is why he is where he is today. You can see the man is in excellent physical condition. Then look at the 2 guys who look like they're in a beer league, who are also the most shocking underperformers. Maybe a new hitting coach is all they need, but I highly doubt that's the case.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#435570) #
Fitness is obviously important.  But there's a limited amount that a club can do with players who don't take the advice or resources for whatever reason.  Supporting all the players with good coaching is something the club can do.  And again, if players don't wish to take the advice of coaches, for whatever reason, there's a limited amount the club can do. 
hypobole - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#435572) #
Exactly, Mike. I remember Vlad came into 2020 spring training v2 in such poor shape he felt compelled to apologise to his teammates for doing so. He reported in 2021 in excellent condition and had that monster season. It comes from within.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#435573) #
Bill James mentioned in one of the Historical Abstracts that Ernie Lombardi was very, very slow because of the excess weight he carried.  When he was young though, the size of his hands was more notable than the size of his gut. 
soupman - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#435584) #
Milwaukee bringing in the bringer of rain
John Northey - Thursday, August 31 2023 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#435586) #
As we get into September does anyone else have teams they are cheering for/against that doesn't involve the Jays WC push? I kinda want SD to slump real bad just to see how their ownership reacts after being a favorite going in with a big payroll - 3rd largest in baseball behind the Yankees & Mets - all 3 are sub-500 right now. FYI: 4/5/6 are Dodger/Phillies/Jays. I'm wondering if the Mets, Yankees, or Padres will do a big slashing of budget after a disastrous year.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#435587) #
Anthony Volpe hits a game-tying 3-run homer in the 9th, but the Yankees lose to the Tigers by a score of 4 - 3 in 10 innings.  After winning the first 3 games of the series, the Yankees were seeking a 4-game sweep in Detroit for the first time since 1926.
hypobole - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#435588) #
I'm sure cheapo ownerships are loving the demise of the big spenders. Look fans - teams spend big and lose. Then there's the O's who sucked for years while not spending and they are winners! We're going to be winners if we don't spend!
greenfrog - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#435590) #
How many of the next nine games (against Colorado, Oakland, KC) do the Jays need to win to have a serious chance of making the playoffs? I would say six minimum, ideally seven-plus, followed by winning at least three of four at home against Texas.

It would really help if Texas lost at least two or three of their next six games against Minnesota and Houston.

Time to make some hay.
85bluejay - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#435591) #
I'm cheering for Miami Marlins (Kim Ng who took forever to get a GM job) and San Francisco Giants (Farhan Zaidi - Canadian).
92-93 - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#435594) #
Winning each series (6-3) should be fine. 7-2 would be nice, but it was a bit much when Buck was saying the Jays needed to go 12-3 over this stretch or it was a disappointment. TEX has to deal with MIN, HOU, and OAK before coming to town, so the Jays going 6-3 should keep them within the 2 games they can make up by winning the 4 game series at the Dome.
christaylor - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#435595) #
In this season of distaste, I'm only cheering against. ATL and BAL are the two I want to see lose on the scoreboard. I always root against Boston, if quietly, because I live here.
greenfrog - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#435596) #
Texas could easily go 6-3 over the next nine. For example, they could plausibly sweep Oakland and go 3-3 against Minnesota and Houston. Remember that Texas is still a good team.

Also, given the Jays letdown series against key opponents at times this year, it would be better not to have to count on winning the four-game series against Texas. If they take care of business against Colorado, Oakland and KC, they’ll have a wider margin of error in the Texas series.
uglyone - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#435597) #
yeah 6-3 isn't near good enough against these teams imo. our situation is a bit more desperate than that.


IF update....Since Dejong was released:

* Dejong: 27pa, -18wrc+, -0.2war
* Espinal: 16pa, 134wrc+, 0.1war
soupman - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#435599) #
The jays have a pretty similar run distribution in aggregate. Padres haven’t allowed a lot of runs but their bats have also underperformed. Until recently their Pythagorean was in lock step with the jays. It’s probably still close
scottt - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#435600) #
Some teams seem unable to get out of their rebuild: KC, Detroit, White Sox...
The A's are in for a long one.
The Angels are probably the victim of Moreno's incompetence.

I think there is something truly satanic going on with the Devil Rays.
Nothing else makes sense.

What's killing the Jays is not having a division team they can beat on.

92-93 - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#435601) #
I don't think the situation is that desperate, and that's reflected in Fangraphs' playoff odds. CIN is 1.5GB but are only 13.3% to win the Wild Card, while the Jays are 2.5GB and are 43.8%. But if you want to be desperate for sweeps, go right ahead.

I mentioned here that Espinal started to look better both in the field and at the plate before DeJong was acquired. The results just weren't there. I was never as high on him as people in here (especially when Merrifield was acquired), but the pendulum has shifted too far with talk of him being non-tendered.

I look forward to meaningful September baseball, and hopefully a packed Dome for the Rangers series.
uglyone - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#435602) #
Yeah but part of those playoffs odds are the schedule they have remaining.
greenfrog - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#435604) #
If both Texas and Toronto go 6-3 over their next nine, the Jays’ playoff odds will go down and Texas’s will go up.

I don’t expect Texas‘s recent dip in performance to last. They played .556 baseball in August with a +28 run differential. If the Jays realistically want to surpass them, they will need to play really well in September. They can’t keep half-assing it.
Mike Green - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#435606) #
Hopefully Ted Williams also told Von Hayes that as a left-handed hitter in Fenway, you could sometimes use the Monster to help you take advantage of back-door sliders low and away on the corner.
jz6pwc - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#435607) #
They don't hit against all pitching, good and bad. Pretty tired of hearing announcers give them excuses on that. As soon its apparent that they will only have a couple of hits they start saying "what a good looking young pitcher so and so have".

If you are a MLB pitcher, then you will have success against the jays. My guess is opposing teams can't wait to play them. Especially young pitchers trying to establish themselves.

They will lose more than they will win against Texas so they better win the next 9.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#435608) #
I just look at the pace. Texas is on pace to win 92 games. To get to 90 wins, Toronto has to go 17-11 over their last 28 (a .607 win%, which is about Tampa’s pace so far).

So for Toronto to make it, they need to play like the 2015 team for a month, or else hope Texas falls off. Both seem unlikely, but are possible. Either way, I agree with other posters that the situation is desperate
Magpie - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#435610) #
As we get into September does anyone else have teams they are cheering for/against that doesn't involve the Jays WC push?

Not until, and only if, it becomes absolutely necessary. When I have no remaining options. Possibly. We'll see.
uglyone - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#435620) #
"So for Toronto to make it, they need to play like the 2015 team for a month"

or looked at slighty differently.....they could just take care of business in this 9gm set against these 3 awful teams, and then they only need to stay above .500 down the stretch.
vw_fan17 - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#435629) #
Other teams to cheer for? Rarely. I guess I'm a "homer" or whatever (although living in CA now, it's not exactly "the home team").

Usually, once the Blue Jays / Maple Leafs are out of the playoffs, I stop watching. Thankfully, looks like the Jays will be in it until late September, at which point, NHL preseason starts, more or less..

Debating about going to see the Jays in Oakland on Monday..
James W - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#435634) #
Not cheering for any other team, F that. Cheering against Boston, New York, Atlanta, Baltimore, Texas, Seattle, and Tampa Bay.
Mike Green - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#435635) #
Not rooting against the Astros, JamesW? Why not? And the Dodgers? The ultimate overdogs. The Phillies are annoying. The Twins coast into the playoffs because of their pathetic division.
James W - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#435637) #
I forgot Houston, you're right. Nothing against the Dodgers, I approve of rich owners spending their money. Phillies and Twins have annoyances, but nothing worth rooting against.
Mike Green - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#435638) #
Softie!
Mike Green - Friday, September 01 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#435640) #
That was a good inning to see what Schneider can do defensively.  Nothing terribly difficult, but it seems that he can move decently in both directions and his arm is adequate to play third base at least from time to time. 
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