Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Malice by Dallas Against Yard Goats

New Hampshire won and the FCL squad split a pair. Dunedin and the DSL Blue Jays both lost. Buffalo's game was rained out and Vancouver's game was smoked out due to wildfires in the Eugene area.

New Hampshire 7 Hartford 3
Clearwater 4 Dunedin 1
FCL Blue Jays 6 FCL Phillies 5 (10 Innings)
FCL Phillies 10 FCL Blue Jays 0 (7 Innings)
DSL White Sox 13 DSL Blue Jays 3

Boxscores

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Arjun Nimmala, FCL Blue Jays - 1/2, 3B, 3BB, 3RBI

2. Miguel Hiraldo, New Hampshire - 3/4, BB, RBI

1. Chad Dallas, New Hampshire - 5IP 1H 0R/ER 3BB 3K

Notes

Leo Jiménez had an RBI single and a sacrifice fly. Andrés Sosa singled and walked and Will Roberston doubled and walked. Michael Turconi extended his on-base streak to 39 games with a walk with the first 34 coming in Vancouver. Gabriel Ponce gave up three runs in the sixth and Kyle Clifton had to strand a pair of runners for him to close out the sixth, getting two strikeouts in 2-1/3 scoreless stanzas.Juan Nuñez ended the game with a strikeout to wrap up a 1-2-3 ninth.

Angel Del Rosario provided Dunedin's only run with his fourth big fly of the season. Roque Salinas had two hits and Jace Bohrofen had one. Braden Berry and Tucker Toman were a combined 0-for-8 at the top of the order. Davis Feldman got the loss despite a quality start of three runs over six innings. Winder Garcia gave up the other run in his one inning. Cobi Johnson put up a zero despite a hit and two walks.

In Game 1, Arjun Nimmala tripled and would score on a two-run home run by Gregori Canó. Nate "The Street" LaRue won it with a walkoff single for the F-Jays. Sam Shaw was 0-for-4 with a walk. The rehabbing Trenton Wallace gave up a run on two hits but struck out two to complete the first inning. Fernando Perez gave up two runs in three innings but struck out five. Carson Pierce was nicked for a run in his professional debut after recently signing as a free agent from Oklahoma. In Game 2, Victor Arias had a hit and a walk and Canó also had a base knock. Keiner Leon turned in the only good pitching line by stranding a runner and pitching 2-1/3 shutout innings. The FCL squad is 17-33 on the season.

Down in the Dominican, Enmanuel Bonilla had a double and a walk while Aneudi Escanio and Omar Romero walked twice. Raudy Gomez and Eduar Gonzalez took the brunt of the beatdown from the White Sox who scored 10 runs in the fifth inning. The DSL Jays fall to 26-24.

Extra Innings

C's Plus Baseball chats with pitcher Anders Tolhurst.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:22 AM EDT.

Malice by Dallas Against Yard Goats | 47 comments | Create New Account

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greenfrog - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#434383) #

BA has some notes on Jays prospects in the FCL. Here is their comment on Nimmala:

Nimmala started the third of three games we were present for in FCL play. He batted second and played shortstop. Immediately Nimmala’s bat speed and power stood out. The ball jumps off of his bat, and he produces the sort of backspin and carry that portend well for future in-game power. He didn’t get beat more than once and showed the ability to handle fastballs on the inner half of the plate. Nimmala displayed plate discipline, but was hardly passive, attacking strikes over the plate and looking to do damage. Defensively he had plenty of range and good footwork but his actions weren’t always clean and he misplayed a few balls. His arm is above-average to plus and he showed the ability to make all the throws needed for a shortstop. He looks like a bat-driven infield profile with enough power to develop into an impact hitter in time.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#434387) #

Thanks, greenfrog, not just for this promising report, but for the fact you take the time to share these every once in a while. Much appreciated.

bpoz - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#434401) #

I tend to compare prospect minor league stats to Bo & Vlad just in case we have another one in the system.

Bo: Drafted 2016. Destroyed Lansing and Dunedin in 2017 while young for those levels. bb/k & Hr not elite. Elite doubles.

Vlad: Dominated Lansing & Dunedin. Hr power arrived in 2018. Elite bb/k.

Nimmala: SSS with elite bb/k, 308 avg. To match Bo/Vlad he has to dominate next year.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#434405) #

Nimmala is 7 months younger than Bichette when he first played in the minors. Vlad was even younger than Nimmala by 5 months when he started.

Gerry - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#434409) #

Excellent title #2JB.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#434416) #

In all the draft scouting reports for Nimmala the one spot of concern i had was that he might have too much swing and miss in his game. I'm also a big believer that these types of things can be apparent right away in the pros. So it's very nice to see it not being a concern for him in his first taste of the pros.

Nigel - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#434425) #

I agree uo - its amazing how much strike zone control or lack thereof is apparent right away and how infrequently that changes over time.

Glevin - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#434452) #

Orelvis with a HR. Interestingly, going into today, he has extremely similar OBP/SLG in AAA/AA (although way more Ks and way better BABIP in AAA). What a crazy year for him though. Looked completely done as a prospect in April and now is a 21 YO in AA holding his own. There have been only a handful of 21 YOs in AAA this year and most are elite prospects (Alvarez, Crow-Armstrong, EDLC, Etc...)

uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#434453) #

That's an .853ops for him now.

In Buffalo that'll have him at about a 105-110wrc+ (we'll see the exact number tomorrow) as he just passed the first 100pa mark. Not bad.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#434454) #

I know he just came back from a break but I wonder if they try to send Green back out tommorrow for the back to back just like they were ready to do before he got hit by that pitch.

That would put him on track to come up this weekend if they wanted.

Hodgie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#434455) #

Martinez's home run today was crushed - 107 MPH off the bat and 455 ft.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#434470) #

2 more HR's for Bohrofen. He has 5 HR now for Dunedin in 19 AB's. Talk about hitting the ground running.

Hodgie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#434479) #

Considering Bohrofen will be 22 in October I wonder if he will get bumped up to Vancouver before the end of the season - A ball does not seem to be much of a challenge so far.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#434480) #

A+ would be a nice age appropriate level for him. If he could finish off hitting well in Vancouver he'd immediately establish himself as a legit prospect.

bpoz - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#434485) #

Looking at our top 30 prospects I don't have much to complain about. I don't know when the list was made.

Toman, Edward Duran and Beltre are basically the same age. It seems Duran is hitting the best and has the best bb/k. As a C I don't know if he is strong or weak defensively. Duran did not make the top 30 list.

Kacevich & Doughty are the same age and and are living up to their natural talent level. Bohrofen is 8 months younger and is having a better Dunedin (SSS) O performance that the other 2 did.

The FCL has F Perez pitching very well and he has the good stuff. Daniel Guerra is 6'6" 230 lb. In 8 starts his 1st 3 were horrible, 4th 2IP 1ER but very good in his next 4 which included a 5IP & 6IP shoutout. I don't know how good his stuff is. Those 2 and Stanifer/Perry are all 19 years old.

Gerry - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#434488) #

Baseball America says the Jays have the 25th best farm system in baseball.

The Blue Jays look like they swung and missed at the top of the 2022 draft as no player among their collection of high picks has established himself as a pro. Where they have excelled is with later-round picks with advanced plate skills, developing a group of those players in recent years, most notably Davis Schneider. The Blue Jays have a cache of future utility infielders but a real lack of everyday regular position prospects. Their pitching talent is led by a trio of lefthanders, including the shining jewel of the system in Ricky Tiedemann. They have a large contingent of talented relief prospects with loud stuff who could all fit into long-term bullpen roles in the big leagues.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#434492) #

If Tiedemann, Orelvis, Nimmala, Barriera, Bohrofen finish up the year like they've been trending, that ranking is going to look pretty questionable imo.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#434493) #

I think the ranking is fair, Bohrofen crushed the SEC and should be in A+. The pitchers just need to get healthy, but injuries for HS pitching is common.

hypobole - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#434494) #

Bohrofen has a crazy 307 wRC+. Thought no one else would be close, but the Pirates 13th rounder is at 294 wRC+. He's done it with a .583 BABIP. Bohrofen's is .222.

The college bats drafted in Bohrofen's range are all in A ball or lower from what I see. Most college 1st round bats are in A+. Crews, drafted 2nd overall by the Nats is still in A ball for some reason.

Then there's the Angels, who seem to be the most aggressive promoters in the baseball. This years 1st rounder is up to AA. Last years 1st rounder has been their starting SS much of the year, and their 2022 3rd and 6th rounders have already pitched in the majors.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#434495) #

Don’t forget about Enmanuel Bonilla. The 17-year-old IFA bonus baby is off to a .295/.398/.409 start in the DSL.

metafour - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#434496) #

"No player has established themselves as a Pro":

Since July 15th:

Doughty: .333/.412/.600 (170 wRC+)
Kasevich: .309/.400/.444 (132 wRC+)

Roden is up to AA wherein he's running a 119 wRC+ with elite plate discipline (this isn't an easy promotion to handle mid-season). He was 3 for 4 last night.

Only Toman has been a "bust". Barriera's season has largely been a throw-away, but it's not like he was getting shelled. I don't exactly see the dire scenario that they are trying to paint.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#434500) #

All of Barriera's numbers other than ERA range from good to very good imo.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#434501) #

Kasevich's numbers also look mostly all good, other than an obvious lack of power. He'll need a surge there to look like a real prospect I think.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#434502) #

Roden also needs a power boost, and more urgently given his age and lack of defensive value.

85bluejay - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#434504) #

Barriera is said to come to camp in poor shape and that has contributed to him having spent significant time in the IL and pitching only 20 innings so far - a wasted year.

Ducey - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#434505) #

Yeah, a little early to write off the 2022 draft for the Jays.

Barriera and Toman were picked out of HS. One has been hurt, the other could be tearing up the FCL, rather than struggling in A-, but they both have miles to go.

Kasevich and Doughty have been improving. Kasevich is 303/365/399 over the last 3 months and has only struck out 22 times in 200PA's. And he can play SS well. Doughty is 305/379/502 in the last 3 months. He is up to 15 HR.

Not seeing the problem there.

And their 5th pick, Roden is up in AA already.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#434508) #

The k rate for Cade Doughty is too high.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#434512) #

Yeah everything in Doughty's line is sort of just not quite good enough for a bat-first prospect who's a bit old for his level.

DiscoStu - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#434513) #

I agree. It seems people forget that players can improve. They are not necessarily the same type of player that they were in A ball as they advance.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#434514) #

I can't see anything promising in Toman's line unfortunately, especially for a guy who doesn't project as a plus defender.

Barriera everything actually looks very good - good K and BB rates, fantastic groundball rate......but somehow has only a 54.5lob% which is obviously just small sample random variation. The injuries / fitness obviously are not great news but performance wise there's everything to like so far.

DiscoStu - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#434515) #

My comment was meant for Ducey.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#434517) #

But really we don't have to stretch that much to the depth prospects to make a case for better than 25th.

Tiedemann, Orelvis, Nimmala, Barriera are all elite talent prospects who are putting up very good to elite numbers, despite all of them having obvious question marks regarding health and track record.

That's really where the bulk of the organizational ranking comes from - whether you are cup half full or empty with these top 4.

Personally I don't place all that much import on injuries in prospects because healthy prospects end up getting injured too.

metafour - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#434518) #

Doughty isn't even 22.5 years old yet (22 and approaching 5 months). He's really not "old" as he is actually half a year younger than average in the Northwest League.

His K-Rate over the past month: 23.5%
His K-Rate over the past two months: 26.6%

Not amazing, but nowhere near worrying. Especially the last month sample.

He had a pretty horrible first ~month of the season which has dragged him down. The BA writeup almost comes off as if it was recycled from months ago when everyone in the system seemed to be struggling.

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#434520) #

well, league average age isn't my go-to because that includes a ton of older non prospects.

In general, age appropriate for "legit prospects" looks more like:

AAA 23
AA 22
A+ 21
A 20

and even then, for the really good prospects you want to see them a year or two younger than that at each level.

metafour - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#434521) #

Those are the age-old "parameters", but they are flawed and significantly favour IFA and HS signees and unfairly punish College-aged players.

A recent Junior draftee is going to be ~21.5 years old before he even plays a single pro game. By that metric, most would need to almost immediately start at AA in order to be "age appropriate" - which in reality rarely happens. And we know for fact that even the best NCAA conference (the SEC) is well below A+ ball in terms of skill-level.

For a recently drafted Junior to be "really good" (two years younger than your stated ages) he would need to lace up in AAA immediately after being drafted? It's not even remotely realistic.

That type of age-range makes Miguel Hiraldo look "legit" (he's been 22 in AA this whole season) and makes Doughty look "old". Howsever, Hiraldo is literally in his 6th season of Pro-ball in the organization. This is Doughty's first full Pro season. No, I don't believe for even one second that Hiraldo is legit and Doughty isn't because they're "both 22" and one is in A+ and the other is in AA. THat is only the case because of how those two players were acquired.

The "appropriate age-range" for College drafted players needs to be scaled back. You'll see all sorts of successful MLB players who came out of college and didn't reach the MLB till their age 24/25 season.

hypobole - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#434522) #

If teams want their college draftees to be legit prospects the obvious solution is to get them Dominican birth certificates. :)

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#434523) #

Imo you're drawing far too large a difference between college ball and low-pro ball. College is tougher than some of those low pro levels.

You might want to give a bit of leeway for guys making their first jump, but you really shouldnt give them all that much. That's the kind of optimistic mistake people made with a guy like Auston Martin.

The fact is good college prospects usually hit the ground running in pro, and don't show any particularly delayed learning curve.

And Hiraldo hasnt been near good enough in AA to be excited about as a bat first prospect either, especially as he's not young for the level.

Glevin - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#434524) #

I think 25th ranking is very fair. There are really no impact offensive prospects in the system at this point. Upper minors have a lot of guys who look like potential roll players or low-end starters. Lower minors with Nimmala, Bonilla, Bohrofen, and others might be more promising but they need a lot more PAs to be seen as legitimate.

It's the system of a team that has traded prospects for major leaguers so it doesn't bother me much but I think the last few years in draft and international signings haven't been great.

Doughty is very meh for me. Numbers are OK but not great for someone who is not a good fielder and a 29% K rate in A+ is high. He's definitely in the "if he improves, he could be a legitimate prospect" bucket but there are tons of players like that.

metafour - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#434526) #

High-A (A+) is categorically better than the top-tier NCAA D1 (the SEC). That isn't even a debate.

Wyatt Langford hit .373/.498/.784 at Florida this past season. He is hitting .289/.449/.579 in 11 games at High-A so far.

Cade Doughty isn't in the FCL or in Low-A. He's in High-A. There is a big difference there. NCAA was always seen as comparable to the old short-season "Low A" rookie league which no longer exists.

What you want to see out of a college-aged Junior is that they start their first full Pro season in High-A and move up one level per year. That is completely normal development and that is the pace that Doughty will be on (he will clearly start next season in AA). What you DON'T want to see is them having to repeat levels, which again, isn't even the case for Doughty (played at Dunedin to start his Pro career last year, promoted to Vancouver this year).

The point of bringing up Hiraldo was to point out the flaw in those "age-appropriate parameters". IFA kids from Latin America almost always come out as "young" even if they're 6th year Pro's and/or repeat multiple levels because they generally start at 17/18. My point is that you need to look at placement and advancement and not just look at age, because the age immediately punishes anyone who played in college. Again, Dylan Crews is 21.5 right now today. You can't tell me that he needs to START next season in AAA in order to be a "super legit prospect" because he'll be 22+ years old. That's a ridiculous expectation.

Glevin - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#434527) #

"Upper minors have a lot of guys who look like potential roll players"

I hang my head in shame. Role-player!

metafour - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#434528) #

I think 25th ranking is very fair. There are really no impact offensive prospects in the system at this point.

What is an "impact offensive prospect"? Do you really believe that? These lists are really hype-driven and one thing you'll notice is that if you don't start off with early hype, it's generally very hard to amass it regardless of how well you play. And on the flip side, if you start with big hype the barometer for performance is magically miniscule. The MLB is littered with so many impact players who were barely regarded as prospects and subsequently gave their organization little to no "prospect points" before magically becoming 2-3+ WAR MLB starters. These prospect writers are trying SO HARD to make Jasson Dominguez a "thing". Is he an "impact offensive prospect"? He's hitting for a 111 wRC+ in AA with a non-impressive .151 ISO, even though he has the body of a 30 year old. They'll try to suggest that him being 20.5 in AA makes his numbers "elite", but it's just an assumption and hardly an exact science (which could also be completely negated by the fact that he was physically maxed-out at like 19 years of age).

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#434530) #

Of coirse High A is tougher than college. Nobody would expect those players to match their college lines at that level.

But you're giving rookie ball levels more credit than college experience wise, which is just wrong.

jerjapan - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#434531) #

Hillarious Glevin.

Dewey busted me for the same offense a few years back. I, too, felt shame.

The 2022 draft has some underslot guys who have done well so far, potential relievers / role-players. Fluharty, Brock, Rock and Harrison all look like they could be good depth pieces.

Gerry - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#434532) #

Barriera has pitched 20 innings this season and is on the IL.

Ricky Tiedemann has thrown 21 innings this season.

So with a month to go in the season the Jays top two pitching prospects have thrown a combined 40 innings this season.

The number one predicter of injuries is previous injuries. Both of these guys need to lose the always injured labels.

And yes I know Ricky is starting tonight.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#434533) #

"Hillarious"

But the emails.

mendocino - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#434535) #

sorry if posted, Ricky live and free

https://www.mlb.com/pipeline

uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#434538) #

Isnt the number one predictor of injuries "being a pitcher"?

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